xxyhdd的个人主页 - 老虎社区

xxyhdd

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2020-10-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$唉，早知道昨天该卖了，这……

2021-02-10

看来民主党给的预算挺多

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-06-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$720买的，高兴死了

2020-07-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$弱弱地问一句，还有人空特斯拉吗

2021-01-29

$游戏驿站(GME)$停的一天，机构都走了吧

2020-08-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$唉，这是要横盘多久

2020-07-30

$高通(QCOM)$华为怂了？

2021-03-30

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$终于解套了[捂脸]

2020-10-20

$AMD(AMD)$惨，被套了5k[捂脸]

2021-08-05

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$梭哈，告辞[捂脸]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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，都开始吹b站了……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378867648","repostId":"2128897025","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2128897025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618793954,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2128897025?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-19 08:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"天风证券：哔哩哔哩-SW（09626）护城河逐渐巩固 年轻人视频社区商业化空间极具前景","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128897025","media":"智通财经网","summary":"3）长期空间：B站目前在中国9.3亿视频用户的渗透率为22%，基于内容视频化趋势及出海潜在空间，用户天花板有望突破5亿。考虑公司目前处于用户快速增长阶段，同时基于年轻人视频社区商业化空间可期，综合PS估值法和单用户估值法，我们给予B站2021年目标市值590亿美元、4,578亿港元，对应目标价156美元、1,213港元。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>本文选自“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>”</strong></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>(09626,BILI.US)：二次元起家，中国年轻世代聚集的综合视频社区</strong></p><p>哔哩哔哩创立于2009年6月，最早是以ACG内容为主的视频弹幕网站，逐步发展为覆盖生活、游戏、娱乐、动漫、科技和知识等多元文化和兴趣内容，以PUGV为核心、包括OGV、直播、短视频等全场景的综合视频社区。截至2020年四季度，B站平台的月活跃用户规模达到2.02亿，在中国互联网用户的渗透率达20.4%，其中35岁以下的“Z+世代”用户占比超过86%，每2位年轻人就有1位是B站用户。</p><p><strong>B站的护城河是什么？</strong></p><p>1）用户：2亿高活跃、高留存的优质用户群是B站的重要优势，用户快速增长的同时维持较好的活跃度与留存。</p><p>2）内容：全场景、多元化的优质内容生态是B站的核心竞争力，核心的PUGV贡献超91%的视频观看量，4Q20月活跃UP主达190万，月均视频投稿量590万，经过十余年积累超过1.2亿存量内容库，品类持续拓宽加深。</p><p>3）社区：社区文化是B站的内核与最大壁垒，用户通过共同的兴趣建立情感纽带，在B站的社区氛围下实现高粘性和互动，4Q20日均视频观看量达12亿，月均总互动量达47亿，我们认为B站的社区氛围体现的是十多年运营沉淀的代表年轻一代的共同文化与价值观，难以被复制，是B站最深的护城河。</p><p>B站的用户空间几何？随着B站出圈，核心用户群从Z世代拓展到Z+世代，我们认为当前的用户规模仍有翻倍空间。</p><p>1）按年龄：B站在Z世代用户的渗透率约53%，假设Z世代渗透率提升至80%，同时通过逐步渗透更成熟人群将Z世代占比从80%降至50%-60%，隐含对其他年龄人群的渗透率从约5%提升至24%-36%，则用户规模可达4.1亿-5.0亿。</p><p>2）按城市等级：B站对一二线城市用户的渗透率约22%，假设一二线用户渗透率提升至45%，同时通过持续下沉渗透将一二线用户占比从约45%降至40%-45%，隐含对三线及以下用户渗透率从17%提升至40%-49%，则用户规模可达4.2亿-4.7亿。</p><p>3）长期空间：B站目前在中国9.3亿视频用户的渗透率为22%，基于内容视频化趋势及出海潜在空间，用户天花板有望突破5亿。</p><p><strong>如何看待B站的商业化空间？</strong></p><p>1）游戏：二次元基因奠定细分品类优势，未来增长核心取决于丰富且优质的产品供给，预计2025年在中国二次元手游市场的份额为15%-20%（2020年为21.5%），对应手游收入135亿元-180亿元，长期空间看自研和品类扩张。</p><p>2）广告：连接品牌与年轻一代的必选阵地，目前单用户广告收入和单位时长广告收入均明显低于可比平台，未来增长将受益于MAU增长、广告效率提升、eCPM及adload增加（目前5%）等，预计广告收入空间可达200亿元-500亿元。</p><p>3）直播：付费用户与ARPPU仍有较大提升空间，未来增长将继续受平台MAU扩张、直播渗透率（1Q19为11%）及付费提升驱动，预计2025年直播收入有望达到87亿元-144亿元，市场份额从0.7%提升至2.1%-3.5%。</p><p>4）大会员：优质内容付费空间广阔，目前大会员规模为1,450万，未来增长驱动力主要来自付费率提升（目前6.7%，长期有望达到15%-20%），同时ARPPU亦有提升空间。</p><p>5）电商：聚焦ACG衍生品，作为IP产业链下游长期空间可期。</p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p>我们预计公司2021-2023年收入分别为195.4亿元/282.7亿元/389.2亿元，同比增长63%/45%/38%，Non-GAAP净亏损为38.1亿元/34.7亿元/22.4亿元，随着用户规模扩张、经营杠杆增加以及毛利率提升，预计公司将于2024年实现盈利。B站当前市值对应2021年PS约13x，单用户估值约198美元。考虑公司目前处于用户快速增长阶段，同时基于年轻人视频社区商业化空间可期，综合PS估值法和单用户估值法，我们给予B站2021年目标市值590亿美元、4,578亿港元，对应目标价156美元、1,213港元。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。</p><p>（智通财经编辑：秦志洲）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>天风证券：哔哩哔哩-SW（09626）护城河逐渐巩固 年轻人视频社区商业化空间极具前景</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n天风证券：哔哩哔哩-SW（09626）护城河逐渐巩固 年轻人视频社区商业化空间极具前景\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-19 08:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104190859147d411345&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文选自“天风证券”哔哩哔哩(09626,BILI.US)：二次元起家，中国年轻世代聚集的综合视频社区哔哩哔哩创立于2009年6月，最早是以ACG内容为主的视频弹幕网站，逐步发展为覆盖生活、游戏、娱乐、动漫、科技和知识等多元文化和兴趣内容，以PUGV为核心、包括OGV、直播、短视频等全场景的综合视频社区。截至2020年四季度，B站平台的月活跃用户规模达到2.02亿，在中国互联网用户的渗透率达...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104190859147d411345&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dfca12a1e9d541cb46bc6ec6361a60a","relate_stocks":{"601162":"天风证券","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104190859147d411345&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2128897025","content_text":"本文选自“天风证券”哔哩哔哩(09626,BILI.US)：二次元起家，中国年轻世代聚集的综合视频社区哔哩哔哩创立于2009年6月，最早是以ACG内容为主的视频弹幕网站，逐步发展为覆盖生活、游戏、娱乐、动漫、科技和知识等多元文化和兴趣内容，以PUGV为核心、包括OGV、直播、短视频等全场景的综合视频社区。截至2020年四季度，B站平台的月活跃用户规模达到2.02亿，在中国互联网用户的渗透率达20.4%，其中35岁以下的“Z+世代”用户占比超过86%，每2位年轻人就有1位是B站用户。B站的护城河是什么？1）用户：2亿高活跃、高留存的优质用户群是B站的重要优势，用户快速增长的同时维持较好的活跃度与留存。2）内容：全场景、多元化的优质内容生态是B站的核心竞争力，核心的PUGV贡献超91%的视频观看量，4Q20月活跃UP主达190万，月均视频投稿量590万，经过十余年积累超过1.2亿存量内容库，品类持续拓宽加深。3）社区：社区文化是B站的内核与最大壁垒，用户通过共同的兴趣建立情感纽带，在B站的社区氛围下实现高粘性和互动，4Q20日均视频观看量达12亿，月均总互动量达47亿，我们认为B站的社区氛围体现的是十多年运营沉淀的代表年轻一代的共同文化与价值观，难以被复制，是B站最深的护城河。B站的用户空间几何？随着B站出圈，核心用户群从Z世代拓展到Z+世代，我们认为当前的用户规模仍有翻倍空间。1）按年龄：B站在Z世代用户的渗透率约53%，假设Z世代渗透率提升至80%，同时通过逐步渗透更成熟人群将Z世代占比从80%降至50%-60%，隐含对其他年龄人群的渗透率从约5%提升至24%-36%，则用户规模可达4.1亿-5.0亿。2）按城市等级：B站对一二线城市用户的渗透率约22%，假设一二线用户渗透率提升至45%，同时通过持续下沉渗透将一二线用户占比从约45%降至40%-45%，隐含对三线及以下用户渗透率从17%提升至40%-49%，则用户规模可达4.2亿-4.7亿。3）长期空间：B站目前在中国9.3亿视频用户的渗透率为22%，基于内容视频化趋势及出海潜在空间，用户天花板有望突破5亿。如何看待B站的商业化空间？1）游戏：二次元基因奠定细分品类优势，未来增长核心取决于丰富且优质的产品供给，预计2025年在中国二次元手游市场的份额为15%-20%（2020年为21.5%），对应手游收入135亿元-180亿元，长期空间看自研和品类扩张。2）广告：连接品牌与年轻一代的必选阵地，目前单用户广告收入和单位时长广告收入均明显低于可比平台，未来增长将受益于MAU增长、广告效率提升、eCPM及adload增加（目前5%）等，预计广告收入空间可达200亿元-500亿元。3）直播：付费用户与ARPPU仍有较大提升空间，未来增长将继续受平台MAU扩张、直播渗透率（1Q19为11%）及付费提升驱动，预计2025年直播收入有望达到87亿元-144亿元，市场份额从0.7%提升至2.1%-3.5%。4）大会员：优质内容付费空间广阔，目前大会员规模为1,450万，未来增长驱动力主要来自付费率提升（目前6.7%，长期有望达到15%-20%），同时ARPPU亦有提升空间。5）电商：聚焦ACG衍生品，作为IP产业链下游长期空间可期。投资建议我们预计公司2021-2023年收入分别为195.4亿元/282.7亿元/389.2亿元，同比增长63%/45%/38%，Non-GAAP净亏损为38.1亿元/34.7亿元/22.4亿元，随着用户规模扩张、经营杠杆增加以及毛利率提升，预计公司将于2024年实现盈利。B站当前市值对应2021年PS约13x，单用户估值约198美元。考虑公司目前处于用户快速增长阶段，同时基于年轻人视频社区商业化空间可期，综合PS估值法和单用户估值法，我们给予B站2021年目标市值590亿美元、4,578亿港元，对应目标价156美元、1,213港元。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。（智通财经编辑：秦志洲）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601162":1,"BILI":1,"09626":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":977502771,"gmtCreate":1601626718593,"gmtModify":1703824958259,"author":{"id":"3549368141494992","authorId":"3549368141494992","name":"xxyhdd","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549368141494992","authorIdStr":"3549368141494992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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