peacecraft的个人主页 - 老虎社区

peacecraft

peacecraft

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2021-07-09

Sea of red this morning

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2021-07-23

Amd ftw

Intel Slides As Earnings Underwhelm Despite Raising Guidance<blockquote>尽管提高了指引，英特尔仍因盈利不佳而下滑</blockquote>

2021-07-05

Time to buy

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2021-08-02

Is this it?

Tesla rose nearly 5% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉早盘涨近5%</blockquote>

2021-07-07

I bet raise. In the end drop a bit.

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2021-07-04

Like me like me

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2021-09-02

Ev is the next big thing

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2021-07-26

Ohh buy buy buy

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2021-07-03

I want to travel

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2021-07-03

Hmm new research ideas

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2021-07-10

Invest with a last move up your sleeve

A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>

2021-07-06

Gimme like.

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2021-07-03

Crucial moments. Like

The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>

2021-07-04

Opportunitiesvis out there. Waiting for all to grasp

Why high-quality, trustworthy companies have beaten the S&P 500 by 30%-50%<blockquote>为什么高质量、值得信赖的公司击败了标普500 30%-50%</blockquote>

2021-07-07

SIA go

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2021-08-13

Oh yeah

@美股研究社:特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克：将于10月9日在柏林-勃兰登堡超级工厂举办集市并开放参观，勃兰登堡和柏林的居民优先参与，也对其他公众开放。$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2021-08-02

Oh no

@牛万的投资策略:$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$期权止损出局（牛万的美股实盘8），交易马克

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this it?","listText":"Is this it?","text":"Is this it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804938644","repostId":"1155693481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155693481","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627913458,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155693481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla rose nearly 5% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉早盘涨近5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155693481","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $Tesla Motors$ rose nearly 5% in morning trading.Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.In addition 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batteries.</p><p><blockquote>此外，上周四，Benzinga提醒其用户特斯拉已申请一项专利，允许其从旧锂离子电动汽车电池中回收和再循环镍和钴。</blockquote></p><p> The patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>这项名为“通过电化学溶解的金属硫酸盐制造系统”的专利将使这家电动汽车和技术公司能够回收两种关键的电池金属原料并重复利用它们，从而提高其供应链的效率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9faf5c64c1d04f0efe8c72c78addc130\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla rose nearly 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class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 22:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> rose nearly 5% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月2日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>早盘涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>Elon Musk确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;addition&nbsp;,Last Thursday,&nbsp;Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.</p><p><blockquote>此外，上周四，Benzinga提醒其用户特斯拉已申请一项专利，允许其从旧锂离子电动汽车电池中回收和再循环镍和钴。</blockquote></p><p> The patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>这项名为“通过电化学溶解的金属硫酸盐制造系统”的专利将使这家电动汽车和技术公司能够回收两种关键的电池金属原料并重复利用它们，从而提高其供应链的效率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9faf5c64c1d04f0efe8c72c78addc130\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155693481","content_text":"(August 2) Tesla Motors rose nearly 5% in morning trading.\nElon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\nIn addition ,Last Thursday, Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.\nThe patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw 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buy buy buy","listText":"Ohh buy buy buy","text":"Ohh buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177427996","repostId":"1167624311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175840909,"gmtCreate":1627025544901,"gmtModify":1633768676472,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amd ftw","listText":"Amd ftw","text":"Amd ftw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175840909","repostId":"1122376593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122376593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627024052,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122376593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Slides As Earnings Underwhelm Despite Raising Guidance<blockquote>尽管提高了指引，英特尔仍因盈利不佳而下滑</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122376593","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is h","content":"<p>Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is hardly indicative of what to expect as investors will instead be more focused to what the company projects for the future. That said, moments ago INTC reported revenue and earnings which both handily beat expectations, while the company also guided higher. Here are the key Q2 numbers:</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前正在经历巨大的转型，因此其刚刚完成的季度很难预示会发生什么，因为投资者将更关注该公司对未来的规划。也就是说，不久前INTC公布的收入和盈利均轻松超出预期，同时该公司的指引也更高。以下是第二季度的关键数据：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue $19.6B, -0.6% Y/Y,</li>  <li>Adjusted revenue $18.53 billion,<b>beating</b>the estimate of $17.80 billion</li>  <li>Adjusted EPS $1.28, +4% vs $1.23 y/y,<b>beating</b>the estimate $1.07</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bc072b02af7a44345b07a762397b34\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入$19.6 B,-0.6%Y/Y,</li><li>调整后营收185.3亿美元，<b>殴打</b>估计为178亿美元</li><li>调整后每股收益为1.28美元，同比增长4%，为1.23美元，<b>殴打</b>估价1.07美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Looking closer at the company's segments reveals the following revenue picture:</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察该公司的细分市场，可以发现以下收入情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloud Computing was up 6% annually to $10.1 billion, and beating estimates of just under $10 billion</li>  <li>Internet of Things was up 47% to $984 million, beating consensus of $887 million.</li>  <li>MobileEye is up 124% to $327 million, below Bloomberg consensus of $374 million.</li>  <li><b>Data Center Group was down 9% to $6.5 billion</b></li>  <li>Programmable Solutions is down 3% to $486 million</li>  <li>Non-Volatility Memory Solutions is down 34% to $1.1 billion</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729015a114132743e450d1d5d46a6c88\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>云计算每年增长6%，达到101亿美元，超出预期略低于100亿美元</li><li>物联网增长47%至9.84亿美元，超过市场预期的8.87亿美元。</li><li>MobileEye股价上涨124%，至3.27亿美元，低于彭博社预期的3.74亿美元。</li><li><b>数据中心集团下跌9%至65亿美元</b></li><li>可编程解决方案下降3%至4.86亿美元</li><li>非易失性存储器解决方案下降34%至11亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> But as noted above, investors would be more focused on the company's guidance, and while the company projecting Q3 revenues which missed consensus expectations, this was more than offset by a hike to its full year 2021 revenues which means the company now expected Y/Y revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>但如上所述，投资者将更关注该公司的指引，虽然该公司预计第三季度收入未达到普遍预期，但这被2021年全年收入的上调所抵消，这意味着该公司现在预计同比收入增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sees 3Q Adj Rev About $18.2B, Est. $18.27B</li>  <li>Sees FY Rev. $77.6B, Saw $77B</li>  <li><b>Sees FY Adj Rev $73.5B, Saw $72.5B, Est. $73.13B</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5fd5c0ff82f93fafb496becdd13eb7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There were more good news in the company's gross margin which surged from 55.2% currently to 59.2% vs. 54.8% a year ago, and solidly above the estimate 57.0%. Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductors analyst,&nbsp;Anand Srinivasan,&nbsp; said he was surprised by the strength of Intel’s margin.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计第三季度调整后Rev约为$18.2 B。$18.27 B</li><li>财年修订版$77.6 B，Saw$77B</li><li><b>预计财年调整后Rev$73.5 B，预计为$72.5 B。$73.13 B</b></li></ul>该公司的毛利率还有更多好消息，从目前的55.2%飙升至59.2%，而一年前为54.8%，远高于预期的57.0%。Bloomberg Intelligence半导体分析师Anand Srinivasan表示，他对英特尔的利润率感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Healthy year-over-year growth in PCs and enterprise data center, along with a weak showing for cloud revenue came as no surprise, though.</p><p><blockquote>不过，个人电脑和企业数据中心的健康同比增长以及云收入的疲软表现并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the results, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that \"there’s never been a more exciting time to be in the semiconductor industry. The digitization of everything continues to accelerate, creating a vast growth opportunity for us and our customers across core and emerging business areas. With our scale and renewed focus on both innovation and execution, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, which I believe is merely the beginning of what will be a decade of sustained growth across the industry. Our second-quarter results show that our momentum is building, our execution is improving, and customers continue to choose us for leadership products.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Pat Gelsinger在评论结果时表示：“半导体行业从未像现在这样令人兴奋。一切的数字化继续加速，为我们和我们的客户在核心和新兴业务领域创造了巨大的增长机会。凭借我们的规模和对创新和执行的重新关注，我们在利用这一机会方面处于独特的地位，我相信这仅仅是整个行业十年持续增长的开始。我们第二季度的业绩表明，我们的势头正在增强，我们的执行力正在提高，客户继续选择我们作为领导产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the cash flow statement, Intel said it generated $8.7 billion in cash from operations during the second quarter. It also paid out dividends of $1.4 billion. Here’s the company’s sources and uses of cash year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>从现金流量表来看，英特尔表示第二季度运营产生了87亿美元现金。它还支付了14亿美元的股息。以下是该公司今年迄今为止的现金来源和用途。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae387fa90b12ea9e2b6bdb1be88b9d28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In kneejerk reaction, INTC stock surged, but then pared gains because as Bloomberg notes, on a non-GAAP basis, the Intel numbers were basically in-line; additionally investors were not too happy with the 6% revenue drop in the Data Center Group.</p><p><blockquote>在下意识的反应中，INTC股价飙升，但随后涨幅回落，因为正如彭博社指出的那样，在非公认会计准则的基础上，英特尔的数据基本上是一致的；此外，投资者对数据中心集团收入下降6%不太满意。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33bd591ea1e04d7d1f54f8dea0e62670\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"851\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bottom line: two quarters in, and Intel stock is just 10% higher than where it was at the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>底线：两个季度过去了，英特尔股价仅比年初高出10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Slides As Earnings Underwhelm Despite Raising Guidance<blockquote>尽管提高了指引，英特尔仍因盈利不佳而下滑</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Slides As Earnings Underwhelm Despite Raising Guidance<blockquote>尽管提高了指引，英特尔仍因盈利不佳而下滑</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 15:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is hardly indicative of what to expect as investors will instead be more focused to what the company projects for the future. That said, moments ago INTC reported revenue and earnings which both handily beat expectations, while the company also guided higher. Here are the key Q2 numbers:</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前正在经历巨大的转型，因此其刚刚完成的季度很难预示会发生什么，因为投资者将更关注该公司对未来的规划。也就是说，不久前INTC公布的收入和盈利均轻松超出预期，同时该公司的指引也更高。以下是第二季度的关键数据：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue $19.6B, -0.6% Y/Y,</li>  <li>Adjusted revenue $18.53 billion,<b>beating</b>the estimate of $17.80 billion</li>  <li>Adjusted EPS $1.28, +4% vs $1.23 y/y,<b>beating</b>the estimate $1.07</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bc072b02af7a44345b07a762397b34\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入$19.6 B,-0.6%Y/Y,</li><li>调整后营收185.3亿美元，<b>殴打</b>估计为178亿美元</li><li>调整后每股收益为1.28美元，同比增长4%，为1.23美元，<b>殴打</b>估价1.07美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Looking closer at the company's segments reveals the following revenue picture:</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察该公司的细分市场，可以发现以下收入情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloud Computing was up 6% annually to $10.1 billion, and beating estimates of just under $10 billion</li>  <li>Internet of Things was up 47% to $984 million, beating consensus of $887 million.</li>  <li>MobileEye is up 124% to $327 million, below Bloomberg consensus of $374 million.</li>  <li><b>Data Center Group was down 9% to $6.5 billion</b></li>  <li>Programmable Solutions is down 3% to $486 million</li>  <li>Non-Volatility Memory Solutions is down 34% to $1.1 billion</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729015a114132743e450d1d5d46a6c88\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>云计算每年增长6%，达到101亿美元，超出预期略低于100亿美元</li><li>物联网增长47%至9.84亿美元，超过市场预期的8.87亿美元。</li><li>MobileEye股价上涨124%，至3.27亿美元，低于彭博社预期的3.74亿美元。</li><li><b>数据中心集团下跌9%至65亿美元</b></li><li>可编程解决方案下降3%至4.86亿美元</li><li>非易失性存储器解决方案下降34%至11亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> But as noted above, investors would be more focused on the company's guidance, and while the company projecting Q3 revenues which missed consensus expectations, this was more than offset by a hike to its full year 2021 revenues which means the company now expected Y/Y revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>但如上所述，投资者将更关注该公司的指引，虽然该公司预计第三季度收入未达到普遍预期，但这被2021年全年收入的上调所抵消，这意味着该公司现在预计同比收入增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sees 3Q Adj Rev About $18.2B, Est. $18.27B</li>  <li>Sees FY Rev. $77.6B, Saw $77B</li>  <li><b>Sees FY Adj Rev $73.5B, Saw $72.5B, Est. $73.13B</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5fd5c0ff82f93fafb496becdd13eb7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There were more good news in the company's gross margin which surged from 55.2% currently to 59.2% vs. 54.8% a year ago, and solidly above the estimate 57.0%. Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductors analyst,&nbsp;Anand Srinivasan,&nbsp; said he was surprised by the strength of Intel’s margin.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计第三季度调整后Rev约为$18.2 B。$18.27 B</li><li>财年修订版$77.6 B，Saw$77B</li><li><b>预计财年调整后Rev$73.5 B，预计为$72.5 B。$73.13 B</b></li></ul>该公司的毛利率还有更多好消息，从目前的55.2%飙升至59.2%，而一年前为54.8%，远高于预期的57.0%。Bloomberg Intelligence半导体分析师Anand Srinivasan表示，他对英特尔的利润率感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Healthy year-over-year growth in PCs and enterprise data center, along with a weak showing for cloud revenue came as no surprise, though.</p><p><blockquote>不过，个人电脑和企业数据中心的健康同比增长以及云收入的疲软表现并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the results, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that \"there’s never been a more exciting time to be in the semiconductor industry. The digitization of everything continues to accelerate, creating a vast growth opportunity for us and our customers across core and emerging business areas. With our scale and renewed focus on both innovation and execution, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, which I believe is merely the beginning of what will be a decade of sustained growth across the industry. Our second-quarter results show that our momentum is building, our execution is improving, and customers continue to choose us for leadership products.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Pat Gelsinger在评论结果时表示：“半导体行业从未像现在这样令人兴奋。一切的数字化继续加速，为我们和我们的客户在核心和新兴业务领域创造了巨大的增长机会。凭借我们的规模和对创新和执行的重新关注，我们在利用这一机会方面处于独特的地位，我相信这仅仅是整个行业十年持续增长的开始。我们第二季度的业绩表明，我们的势头正在增强，我们的执行力正在提高，客户继续选择我们作为领导产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the cash flow statement, Intel said it generated $8.7 billion in cash from operations during the second quarter. It also paid out dividends of $1.4 billion. Here’s the company’s sources and uses of cash year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>从现金流量表来看，英特尔表示第二季度运营产生了87亿美元现金。它还支付了14亿美元的股息。以下是该公司今年迄今为止的现金来源和用途。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae387fa90b12ea9e2b6bdb1be88b9d28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In kneejerk reaction, INTC stock surged, but then pared gains because as Bloomberg notes, on a non-GAAP basis, the Intel numbers were basically in-line; additionally investors were not too happy with the 6% revenue drop in the Data Center Group.</p><p><blockquote>在下意识的反应中，INTC股价飙升，但随后涨幅回落，因为正如彭博社指出的那样，在非公认会计准则的基础上，英特尔的数据基本上是一致的；此外，投资者对数据中心集团收入下降6%不太满意。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33bd591ea1e04d7d1f54f8dea0e62670\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"851\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bottom line: two quarters in, and Intel stock is just 10% higher than where it was at the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>底线：两个季度过去了，英特尔股价仅比年初高出10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intel-slides-earnings-underwhelm-despite-raising-guidance\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intel-slides-earnings-underwhelm-despite-raising-guidance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122376593","content_text":"Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is hardly indicative of what to expect as investors will instead be more focused to what the company projects for the future. That said, moments ago INTC reported revenue and earnings which both handily beat expectations, while the company also guided higher. Here are the key Q2 numbers:\n\nRevenue $19.6B, -0.6% Y/Y,\nAdjusted revenue $18.53 billion,beatingthe estimate of $17.80 billion\nAdjusted EPS $1.28, +4% vs $1.23 y/y,beatingthe estimate $1.07\n\n\nLooking closer at the company's segments reveals the following revenue picture:\n\nCloud Computing was up 6% annually to $10.1 billion, and beating estimates of just under $10 billion\nInternet of Things was up 47% to $984 million, beating consensus of $887 million.\nMobileEye is up 124% to $327 million, below Bloomberg consensus of $374 million.\nData Center Group was down 9% to $6.5 billion\nProgrammable Solutions is down 3% to $486 million\nNon-Volatility Memory Solutions is down 34% to $1.1 billion\n\n\nBut as noted above, investors would be more focused on the company's guidance, and while the company projecting Q3 revenues which missed consensus expectations, this was more than offset by a hike to its full year 2021 revenues which means the company now expected Y/Y revenue growth:\n\nSees 3Q Adj Rev About $18.2B, Est. $18.27B\nSees FY Rev. $77.6B, Saw $77B\nSees FY Adj Rev $73.5B, Saw $72.5B, Est. $73.13B\n\nThere were more good news in the company's gross margin which surged from 55.2% currently to 59.2% vs. 54.8% a year ago, and solidly above the estimate 57.0%. Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductors analyst, Anand Srinivasan,  said he was surprised by the strength of Intel’s margin.\nHealthy year-over-year growth in PCs and enterprise data center, along with a weak showing for cloud revenue came as no surprise, though.\nCommenting on the results, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that \"there’s never been a more exciting time to be in the semiconductor industry. The digitization of everything continues to accelerate, creating a vast growth opportunity for us and our customers across core and emerging business areas. With our scale and renewed focus on both innovation and execution, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, which I believe is merely the beginning of what will be a decade of sustained growth across the industry. Our second-quarter results show that our momentum is building, our execution is improving, and customers continue to choose us for leadership products.\"\nLooking at the cash flow statement, Intel said it generated $8.7 billion in cash from operations during the second quarter. It also paid out dividends of $1.4 billion. Here’s the company’s sources and uses of cash year-to-date.\nIn kneejerk reaction, INTC stock surged, but then pared gains because as Bloomberg notes, on a non-GAAP basis, the Intel numbers were basically in-line; additionally investors were not too happy with the 6% revenue drop in the Data Center Group.\nBottom line: two quarters in, and Intel stock is just 10% higher than where it was at the start of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148025897,"gmtCreate":1625903734219,"gmtModify":1633936194487,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest with a last move up your sleeve","listText":"Invest with a last move up your sleeve","text":"Invest with a last move up your sleeve","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148025897","repostId":"2150053623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150053623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625883910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150053623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150053623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an infla","content":"<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143695256,"gmtCreate":1625790677875,"gmtModify":1633937342131,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sea of red this morning","listText":"Sea of red this morning","text":"Sea of red this morning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143695256","repostId":"1153646457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140440755,"gmtCreate":1625670179677,"gmtModify":1633938492796,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SIA go","listText":"SIA go","text":"SIA go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140440755","repostId":"2149318082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157724534,"gmtCreate":1625616565528,"gmtModify":1633939107623,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I bet raise. In the end drop a bit.","listText":"I bet raise. In the end drop a bit.","text":"I bet raise. In the end drop a bit.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157724534","repostId":"1122166072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157921810,"gmtCreate":1625560719430,"gmtModify":1633939636935,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gimme like.","listText":"Gimme like.","text":"Gimme like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157921810","repostId":"2149466331","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154900109,"gmtCreate":1625464860901,"gmtModify":1631885482429,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154900109","repostId":"1179512141","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155660128,"gmtCreate":1625412758964,"gmtModify":1633940864338,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Opportunitiesvis out there.&nbsp; Waiting for all to grasp","listText":"Opportunitiesvis out there.&nbsp; Waiting for all to grasp","text":"Opportunitiesvis out there. Waiting for all to grasp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155660128","repostId":"1109375790","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109375790","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625370494,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109375790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-04 11:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why high-quality, trustworthy companies have beaten the S&P 500 by 30%-50%<blockquote>为什么高质量、值得信赖的公司击败了标普500 30%-50%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109375790","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.Trust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.  Within an organization, trust percolates into culture. Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.  Quality shareholders  who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders — maintain this viewpoint in their investment practice.TheTrust Across America initiative has identified the most trustworthy U.S. public co","content":"<p>  <b>More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.</b>  Trust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.&nbsp; Within an organization, trust percolates into culture.&nbsp;Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.&nbsp; Quality shareholders (QS) who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders —&nbsp;maintain this&nbsp;viewpoint in their investment practice.</p><p><blockquote><b>更可预测的业务往往是更有利可图的股票投资。</b>信任是公司可以培养的最有价值的资产之一。在一个组织内，信任渗透到文化中。在组织之外，它转化为忠诚。重视所有利益相关者（员工、客户和股东）之间长期信任的优质股东（QS）在其投资实践中坚持这一观点。</blockquote></p><p> TheTrust Across America(TAA) initiative has identified the most&nbsp;trustworthy&nbsp;U.S. public&nbsp;companies using objective&nbsp;and quantitative&nbsp;indicators including accounting&nbsp;conservativeness&nbsp;and financial stability, as well as a secondary screen of more subjective criteria such as employee reviews and news reports.</p><p><blockquote>全美信任(TAA)倡议已经确定了最值得信赖的美国。上市公司使用客观和定量指标，包括会计稳健性和财务稳定性，以及员工评论和新闻报道等更主观标准的二级筛选。</blockquote></p><p> Companies regarded as trustworthy also tend to rate highly in rankings of shareholder quality produced by the&nbsp;Quality Shareholders Initiative&nbsp;(QSI), which I run, as well as the proprietary database of&nbsp;EQX, which I use to cross-check the QSI data.</p><p><blockquote>被认为值得信赖的公司在我负责的质量股东倡议（QSI）以及我用来交叉检查QSI数据的EQX专有数据库制作的股东质量排名中也往往排名很高。</blockquote></p><p> TAA’s assessment of the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.75%in 2020 identified 51 companies, of which 49&nbsp;are also included in the QSI rankings. Comparing the two, more than one-fourth of the top TAA companies are in the top decile of the QSI; two-thirds are in the top quarter, and all but two (92%) are in the top half.</p><p><blockquote>TAA对2020年标准普尔500SPX指数+0.75%的评估确定了51家公司，其中49家也被纳入QSI排名。比较两者，超过四分之一的TAA顶级公司位于QSI的前十分位；三分之二位于前四分之一，除两人（92%）外，其余均位于前半部分。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, both the TAA top 10 and the QSI Top 25 outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 30% and 50%, respectively, in recent five-year periods. Here’s a sampling of companies scoring high on both trust and quality:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，近五年来，TAA前10名和QSI前25名的表现分别比标普500高出30%和50%。以下是在信任度和质量方面得分较高的公司样本：</blockquote></p><p> Texas InstrumentsTXN,+0.72%makes most of its revenue selling computer chips and is among the world’s largest manufacturers of semiconductors. Founded by a group of electrical engineers in 1951, the company boasts a culture of intelligent innovation. Its business is protected by four protective “moats” including: manufacturing and technology skill thanks to its employees; a broad portfolio of processing chips to meet a wide range of customer needs; the reach of its market channels thanks to both, and its diversity and longevity.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器STXN,+0.72%的大部分收入来自销售计算机芯片，是全球最大的半导体制造商之一。该公司由一群电气工程师于1951年创立，拥有智能创新文化。其业务受到四条保护性“护城河”的保护，包括：得益于员工的制造和技术技能；广泛的处理芯片产品组合，满足广泛的客户需求；其市场渠道的覆盖范围得益于这两者，以及其多样性和寿命。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, this adds up to a winning recipe, particularly when combined with Texas Instruments’s capital management strategy, which is to maximize the company’s long-term growth in free cash-flow per share and to&nbsp;allocate such capital in accordance with the QS playbook&nbsp;that prioritizes wise reinvestment, disciplined acquisitions, low-priced share buybacks and shareholder dividends. Some of the company’s notable QSs include: Alliance Bernstein, Bessemer Group, Capital World Investors, State Farm Mutual, and T. Rowe Price Group.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，这是一个制胜秘诀，特别是与德州仪器的资本管理策略相结合时，该策略旨在最大限度地提高公司每股自由现金流的长期增长，并根据QS剧本分配此类资本，优先考虑明智的再投资、严格的收购、低价股票回购和股东股息。该公司一些著名的QS包括：Alliance Bernstein、Bessemer Group、Capital World Investors、State Farm Mutual和T.Rowe Price Group。</blockquote></p><p> Another stock on this list, EcolabECL,+0.77%,is a global leader in water treatment. Founded in 1923 as the Economics Laboratory, its long-term outlook shows in the longevity of senior leadership: the company has had just seven CEOs in almost 100 years of existence.</p><p><blockquote>这份名单上的另一只股票EcolabECL，+0.77%，是水处理领域的全球领导者。该公司成立于1923年，原名经济实验室，其长期前景体现在高级领导层的长寿上：该公司在近100年的历史中只有7位首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Those CEOs inculcated a culture of customer care, a relentless focus on helping customers solve problems and meet goals. A learning organization, such a performance culture permeates the business from production to sales, as employees commit to the long-term goal of being indispensable to customers. Management rewards that employee conviction with long-term incentives and a high degree of autonomy.&nbsp;Ecolab’s QSs include: Cantillon Capital, Clearbridge Investments, Franklin Resources, and the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>这些首席执行官灌输了一种客户关怀文化，坚持不懈地帮助客户解决问题和实现目标。作为一个学习型组织，这种绩效文化渗透到从生产到销售的业务中，因为员工致力于成为客户不可或缺的长期目标。管理层通过长期激励和高度自主权来奖励员工的信念。艺康的QSs包括：Cantillon Capital、Clearbridge Investments、Franklin Resources和盖茨基金会。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, consider Ball CorporationBLL,-0.68%,the world’s largest manufacturer of recyclable containers.&nbsp; Founded in the late 1800s by two brother-entrepreneurs who foresaw that the Mason jar patent was about to expire and built a glassblowing facility to manufacture such jars.</p><p><blockquote>最后，考虑一下全球最大的可回收容器制造商Ball CorporationBLL，-0.68%。该公司由两位企业家兄弟于1800年代末创立，他们预见到梅森罐专利即将到期，并建造了一座玻璃吹制工厂来制造此类罐子。</blockquote></p><p> Ball remains characterized by a culture of family, innovation and natural-resources conscientiousness. For instance, Ball foresaw the ecological and commercial need to pivot away from PET and glass containers, both costly to recycle and posing environmental damage, and towards eco-friendly and profitable aluminum. The company adopts economic value added (EVA) to assure every dollar is well-spent, long-term employee incentive compensation to reward long-term sustainable growth, and a spirit of entrepreneurial freedom. QSs include: Chilton Investment Co.; T. Rowe Price; Wellington&nbsp;Management Group and&nbsp;Winslow Capital Management.</p><p><blockquote>鲍尔的特点仍然是家庭、创新和自然资源意识的文化。例如，鲍尔预见到生态和商业需要从回收成本高且对环境造成破坏的PET和玻璃容器转向环保且有利可图的铝。该公司采用经济附加值（EVA）来确保每一美元都花得值，长期员工激励薪酬来奖励长期可持续增长，以及创业自由精神。QSs包括：奇尔顿投资公司；T.罗普莱斯；惠灵顿管理集团和温斯洛资本管理公司。</blockquote></p><p> While some investors focus solely on the bottom line and others only on signals of corporate virtue, QSs are holistic, considering the inherent relationship between trust and long-term value. Nebulous as the notion of trust in corporate culture might seem, it’s a profitable as well as ethical value to probe.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些投资者只关注底线，而另一些投资者只关注企业美德的信号，但考虑到信任和长期价值之间的内在关系，QSs是全面的。尽管企业文化中的信任概念看起来很模糊，但它是一个值得探索的有利可图的道德价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why high-quality, trustworthy companies have beaten the S&P 500 by 30%-50%<blockquote>为什么高质量、值得信赖的公司击败了标普500 30%-50%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy high-quality, trustworthy companies have beaten the S&P 500 by 30%-50%<blockquote>为什么高质量、值得信赖的公司击败了标普500 30%-50%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-04 11:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.</b>  Trust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.&nbsp; Within an organization, trust percolates into culture.&nbsp;Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.&nbsp; Quality shareholders (QS) who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders —&nbsp;maintain this&nbsp;viewpoint in their investment practice.</p><p><blockquote><b>更可预测的业务往往是更有利可图的股票投资。</b>信任是公司可以培养的最有价值的资产之一。在一个组织内，信任渗透到文化中。在组织之外，它转化为忠诚。重视所有利益相关者（员工、客户和股东）之间长期信任的优质股东（QS）在其投资实践中坚持这一观点。</blockquote></p><p> TheTrust Across America(TAA) initiative has identified the most&nbsp;trustworthy&nbsp;U.S. public&nbsp;companies using objective&nbsp;and quantitative&nbsp;indicators including accounting&nbsp;conservativeness&nbsp;and financial stability, as well as a secondary screen of more subjective criteria such as employee reviews and news reports.</p><p><blockquote>全美信任(TAA)倡议已经确定了最值得信赖的美国。上市公司使用客观和定量指标，包括会计稳健性和财务稳定性，以及员工评论和新闻报道等更主观标准的二级筛选。</blockquote></p><p> Companies regarded as trustworthy also tend to rate highly in rankings of shareholder quality produced by the&nbsp;Quality Shareholders Initiative&nbsp;(QSI), which I run, as well as the proprietary database of&nbsp;EQX, which I use to cross-check the QSI data.</p><p><blockquote>被认为值得信赖的公司在我负责的质量股东倡议（QSI）以及我用来交叉检查QSI数据的EQX专有数据库制作的股东质量排名中也往往排名很高。</blockquote></p><p> TAA’s assessment of the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.75%in 2020 identified 51 companies, of which 49&nbsp;are also included in the QSI rankings. Comparing the two, more than one-fourth of the top TAA companies are in the top decile of the QSI; two-thirds are in the top quarter, and all but two (92%) are in the top half.</p><p><blockquote>TAA对2020年标准普尔500SPX指数+0.75%的评估确定了51家公司，其中49家也被纳入QSI排名。比较两者，超过四分之一的TAA顶级公司位于QSI的前十分位；三分之二位于前四分之一，除两人（92%）外，其余均位于前半部分。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, both the TAA top 10 and the QSI Top 25 outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 30% and 50%, respectively, in recent five-year periods. Here’s a sampling of companies scoring high on both trust and quality:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，近五年来，TAA前10名和QSI前25名的表现分别比标普500高出30%和50%。以下是在信任度和质量方面得分较高的公司样本：</blockquote></p><p> Texas InstrumentsTXN,+0.72%makes most of its revenue selling computer chips and is among the world’s largest manufacturers of semiconductors. Founded by a group of electrical engineers in 1951, the company boasts a culture of intelligent innovation. Its business is protected by four protective “moats” including: manufacturing and technology skill thanks to its employees; a broad portfolio of processing chips to meet a wide range of customer needs; the reach of its market channels thanks to both, and its diversity and longevity.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器STXN,+0.72%的大部分收入来自销售计算机芯片，是全球最大的半导体制造商之一。该公司由一群电气工程师于1951年创立，拥有智能创新文化。其业务受到四条保护性“护城河”的保护，包括：得益于员工的制造和技术技能；广泛的处理芯片产品组合，满足广泛的客户需求；其市场渠道的覆盖范围得益于这两者，以及其多样性和寿命。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, this adds up to a winning recipe, particularly when combined with Texas Instruments’s capital management strategy, which is to maximize the company’s long-term growth in free cash-flow per share and to&nbsp;allocate such capital in accordance with the QS playbook&nbsp;that prioritizes wise reinvestment, disciplined acquisitions, low-priced share buybacks and shareholder dividends. Some of the company’s notable QSs include: Alliance Bernstein, Bessemer Group, Capital World Investors, State Farm Mutual, and T. Rowe Price Group.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，这是一个制胜秘诀，特别是与德州仪器的资本管理策略相结合时，该策略旨在最大限度地提高公司每股自由现金流的长期增长，并根据QS剧本分配此类资本，优先考虑明智的再投资、严格的收购、低价股票回购和股东股息。该公司一些著名的QS包括：Alliance Bernstein、Bessemer Group、Capital World Investors、State Farm Mutual和T.Rowe Price Group。</blockquote></p><p> Another stock on this list, EcolabECL,+0.77%,is a global leader in water treatment. Founded in 1923 as the Economics Laboratory, its long-term outlook shows in the longevity of senior leadership: the company has had just seven CEOs in almost 100 years of existence.</p><p><blockquote>这份名单上的另一只股票EcolabECL，+0.77%，是水处理领域的全球领导者。该公司成立于1923年，原名经济实验室，其长期前景体现在高级领导层的长寿上：该公司在近100年的历史中只有7位首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Those CEOs inculcated a culture of customer care, a relentless focus on helping customers solve problems and meet goals. A learning organization, such a performance culture permeates the business from production to sales, as employees commit to the long-term goal of being indispensable to customers. Management rewards that employee conviction with long-term incentives and a high degree of autonomy.&nbsp;Ecolab’s QSs include: Cantillon Capital, Clearbridge Investments, Franklin Resources, and the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>这些首席执行官灌输了一种客户关怀文化，坚持不懈地帮助客户解决问题和实现目标。作为一个学习型组织，这种绩效文化渗透到从生产到销售的业务中，因为员工致力于成为客户不可或缺的长期目标。管理层通过长期激励和高度自主权来奖励员工的信念。艺康的QSs包括：Cantillon Capital、Clearbridge Investments、Franklin Resources和盖茨基金会。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, consider Ball CorporationBLL,-0.68%,the world’s largest manufacturer of recyclable containers.&nbsp; Founded in the late 1800s by two brother-entrepreneurs who foresaw that the Mason jar patent was about to expire and built a glassblowing facility to manufacture such jars.</p><p><blockquote>最后，考虑一下全球最大的可回收容器制造商Ball CorporationBLL，-0.68%。该公司由两位企业家兄弟于1800年代末创立，他们预见到梅森罐专利即将到期，并建造了一座玻璃吹制工厂来制造此类罐子。</blockquote></p><p> Ball remains characterized by a culture of family, innovation and natural-resources conscientiousness. For instance, Ball foresaw the ecological and commercial need to pivot away from PET and glass containers, both costly to recycle and posing environmental damage, and towards eco-friendly and profitable aluminum. The company adopts economic value added (EVA) to assure every dollar is well-spent, long-term employee incentive compensation to reward long-term sustainable growth, and a spirit of entrepreneurial freedom. QSs include: Chilton Investment Co.; T. Rowe Price; Wellington&nbsp;Management Group and&nbsp;Winslow Capital Management.</p><p><blockquote>鲍尔的特点仍然是家庭、创新和自然资源意识的文化。例如，鲍尔预见到生态和商业需要从回收成本高且对环境造成破坏的PET和玻璃容器转向环保且有利可图的铝。该公司采用经济附加值（EVA）来确保每一美元都花得值，长期员工激励薪酬来奖励长期可持续增长，以及创业自由精神。QSs包括：奇尔顿投资公司；T.罗普莱斯；惠灵顿管理集团和温斯洛资本管理公司。</blockquote></p><p> While some investors focus solely on the bottom line and others only on signals of corporate virtue, QSs are holistic, considering the inherent relationship between trust and long-term value. Nebulous as the notion of trust in corporate culture might seem, it’s a profitable as well as ethical value to probe.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些投资者只关注底线，而另一些投资者只关注企业美德的信号，但考虑到信任和长期价值之间的内在关系，QSs是全面的。尽管企业文化中的信任概念看起来很模糊，但它是一个值得探索的有利可图的道德价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-high-quality-trustworthy-companies-have-beaten-the-s-p-500-by-30-50-11625020379?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-high-quality-trustworthy-companies-have-beaten-the-s-p-500-by-30-50-11625020379?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109375790","content_text":"More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.\n\nTrust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.  Within an organization, trust percolates into culture. Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.  Quality shareholders (QS) who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders — maintain this viewpoint in their investment practice.\nTheTrust Across America(TAA) initiative has identified the most trustworthy U.S. public companies using objective and quantitative indicators including accounting conservativeness and financial stability, as well as a secondary screen of more subjective criteria such as employee reviews and news reports.\nCompanies regarded as trustworthy also tend to rate highly in rankings of shareholder quality produced by the Quality Shareholders Initiative (QSI), which I run, as well as the proprietary database of EQX, which I use to cross-check the QSI data.\nTAA’s assessment of the S&P 500SPX,+0.75%in 2020 identified 51 companies, of which 49 are also included in the QSI rankings. Comparing the two, more than one-fourth of the top TAA companies are in the top decile of the QSI; two-thirds are in the top quarter, and all but two (92%) are in the top half.\nNotably, both the TAA top 10 and the QSI Top 25 outperformed the S&P 500 by 30% and 50%, respectively, in recent five-year periods. Here’s a sampling of companies scoring high on both trust and quality:\nTexas InstrumentsTXN,+0.72%makes most of its revenue selling computer chips and is among the world’s largest manufacturers of semiconductors. Founded by a group of electrical engineers in 1951, the company boasts a culture of intelligent innovation. Its business is protected by four protective “moats” including: manufacturing and technology skill thanks to its employees; a broad portfolio of processing chips to meet a wide range of customer needs; the reach of its market channels thanks to both, and its diversity and longevity.\nFor investors, this adds up to a winning recipe, particularly when combined with Texas Instruments’s capital management strategy, which is to maximize the company’s long-term growth in free cash-flow per share and to allocate such capital in accordance with the QS playbook that prioritizes wise reinvestment, disciplined acquisitions, low-priced share buybacks and shareholder dividends. Some of the company’s notable QSs include: Alliance Bernstein, Bessemer Group, Capital World Investors, State Farm Mutual, and T. Rowe Price Group.\nAnother stock on this list, EcolabECL,+0.77%,is a global leader in water treatment. Founded in 1923 as the Economics Laboratory, its long-term outlook shows in the longevity of senior leadership: the company has had just seven CEOs in almost 100 years of existence.\nThose CEOs inculcated a culture of customer care, a relentless focus on helping customers solve problems and meet goals. A learning organization, such a performance culture permeates the business from production to sales, as employees commit to the long-term goal of being indispensable to customers. Management rewards that employee conviction with long-term incentives and a high degree of autonomy. Ecolab’s QSs include: Cantillon Capital, Clearbridge Investments, Franklin Resources, and the Gates Foundation.\nFinally, consider Ball CorporationBLL,-0.68%,the world’s largest manufacturer of recyclable containers.  Founded in the late 1800s by two brother-entrepreneurs who foresaw that the Mason jar patent was about to expire and built a glassblowing facility to manufacture such jars.\nBall remains characterized by a culture of family, innovation and natural-resources conscientiousness. For instance, Ball foresaw the ecological and commercial need to pivot away from PET and glass containers, both costly to recycle and posing environmental damage, and towards eco-friendly and profitable aluminum. The company adopts economic value added (EVA) to assure every dollar is well-spent, long-term employee incentive compensation to reward long-term sustainable growth, and a spirit of entrepreneurial freedom. QSs include: Chilton Investment Co.; T. Rowe Price; Wellington Management Group and Winslow Capital Management.\nWhile some investors focus solely on the bottom line and others only on signals of corporate virtue, QSs are holistic, considering the inherent relationship between trust and long-term value. Nebulous as the notion of trust in corporate culture might seem, it’s a profitable as well as ethical value to probe.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155140679,"gmtCreate":1625393429091,"gmtModify":1633940977758,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like me like me","listText":"Like me like me","text":"Like me like me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155140679","repostId":"1189605893","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152481912,"gmtCreate":1625327216336,"gmtModify":1633941466370,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I want to travel","listText":"I want to travel","text":"I want to travel","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152481912","repostId":"1130764181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152646530,"gmtCreate":1625291013920,"gmtModify":1633941668445,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crucial moments. Like","listText":"Crucial moments. Like","text":"Crucial moments. Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152646530","repostId":"1197906560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197906560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625285328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197906560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197906560","media":"Barron's","summary":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat ","content":"<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她说，在调整低工资休闲、酒店业和零售业工人返回之后，6月份的平均时薪比5月份上涨了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她说，在调整低工资休闲、酒店业和零售业工人返回之后，6月份的平均时薪比5月份上涨了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197906560","content_text":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\nOne might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.\nFirst, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.\nWhat’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nSecond, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.\nThird, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.\n“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.\nFurther highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.\nSo, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.\nThe degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.\nWhile about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.\nAt least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.\nAll of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.\nNot so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.\nIf that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.\nTherein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.\nInvestors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152646965,"gmtCreate":1625290956957,"gmtModify":1633941669016,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm new research ideas","listText":"Hmm new research ideas","text":"Hmm new research ideas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152646965","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":143695256,"gmtCreate":1625790677875,"gmtModify":1633937342131,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sea of red this morning","listText":"Sea of red this morning","text":"Sea of red this morning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143695256","repostId":"1153646457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175840909,"gmtCreate":1627025544901,"gmtModify":1633768676472,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amd ftw","listText":"Amd ftw","text":"Amd ftw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175840909","repostId":"1122376593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122376593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627024052,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122376593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Slides As Earnings Underwhelm Despite Raising Guidance<blockquote>尽管提高了指引，英特尔仍因盈利不佳而下滑</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122376593","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is h","content":"<p>Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is hardly indicative of what to expect as investors will instead be more focused to what the company projects for the future. That said, moments ago INTC reported revenue and earnings which both handily beat expectations, while the company also guided higher. Here are the key Q2 numbers:</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前正在经历巨大的转型，因此其刚刚完成的季度很难预示会发生什么，因为投资者将更关注该公司对未来的规划。也就是说，不久前INTC公布的收入和盈利均轻松超出预期，同时该公司的指引也更高。以下是第二季度的关键数据：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue $19.6B, -0.6% Y/Y,</li>  <li>Adjusted revenue $18.53 billion,<b>beating</b>the estimate of $17.80 billion</li>  <li>Adjusted EPS $1.28, +4% vs $1.23 y/y,<b>beating</b>the estimate $1.07</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bc072b02af7a44345b07a762397b34\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入$19.6 B,-0.6%Y/Y,</li><li>调整后营收185.3亿美元，<b>殴打</b>估计为178亿美元</li><li>调整后每股收益为1.28美元，同比增长4%，为1.23美元，<b>殴打</b>估价1.07美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Looking closer at the company's segments reveals the following revenue picture:</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察该公司的细分市场，可以发现以下收入情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloud Computing was up 6% annually to $10.1 billion, and beating estimates of just under $10 billion</li>  <li>Internet of Things was up 47% to $984 million, beating consensus of $887 million.</li>  <li>MobileEye is up 124% to $327 million, below Bloomberg consensus of $374 million.</li>  <li><b>Data Center Group was down 9% to $6.5 billion</b></li>  <li>Programmable Solutions is down 3% to $486 million</li>  <li>Non-Volatility Memory Solutions is down 34% to $1.1 billion</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729015a114132743e450d1d5d46a6c88\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>云计算每年增长6%，达到101亿美元，超出预期略低于100亿美元</li><li>物联网增长47%至9.84亿美元，超过市场预期的8.87亿美元。</li><li>MobileEye股价上涨124%，至3.27亿美元，低于彭博社预期的3.74亿美元。</li><li><b>数据中心集团下跌9%至65亿美元</b></li><li>可编程解决方案下降3%至4.86亿美元</li><li>非易失性存储器解决方案下降34%至11亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> But as noted above, investors would be more focused on the company's guidance, and while the company projecting Q3 revenues which missed consensus expectations, this was more than offset by a hike to its full year 2021 revenues which means the company now expected Y/Y revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>但如上所述，投资者将更关注该公司的指引，虽然该公司预计第三季度收入未达到普遍预期，但这被2021年全年收入的上调所抵消，这意味着该公司现在预计同比收入增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sees 3Q Adj Rev About $18.2B, Est. $18.27B</li>  <li>Sees FY Rev. $77.6B, Saw $77B</li>  <li><b>Sees FY Adj Rev $73.5B, Saw $72.5B, Est. $73.13B</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5fd5c0ff82f93fafb496becdd13eb7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There were more good news in the company's gross margin which surged from 55.2% currently to 59.2% vs. 54.8% a year ago, and solidly above the estimate 57.0%. Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductors analyst,&nbsp;Anand Srinivasan,&nbsp; said he was surprised by the strength of Intel’s margin.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计第三季度调整后Rev约为$18.2 B。$18.27 B</li><li>财年修订版$77.6 B，Saw$77B</li><li><b>预计财年调整后Rev$73.5 B，预计为$72.5 B。$73.13 B</b></li></ul>该公司的毛利率还有更多好消息，从目前的55.2%飙升至59.2%，而一年前为54.8%，远高于预期的57.0%。Bloomberg Intelligence半导体分析师Anand Srinivasan表示，他对英特尔的利润率感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Healthy year-over-year growth in PCs and enterprise data center, along with a weak showing for cloud revenue came as no surprise, though.</p><p><blockquote>不过，个人电脑和企业数据中心的健康同比增长以及云收入的疲软表现并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the results, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that \"there’s never been a more exciting time to be in the semiconductor industry. The digitization of everything continues to accelerate, creating a vast growth opportunity for us and our customers across core and emerging business areas. With our scale and renewed focus on both innovation and execution, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, which I believe is merely the beginning of what will be a decade of sustained growth across the industry. Our second-quarter results show that our momentum is building, our execution is improving, and customers continue to choose us for leadership products.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Pat Gelsinger在评论结果时表示：“半导体行业从未像现在这样令人兴奋。一切的数字化继续加速，为我们和我们的客户在核心和新兴业务领域创造了巨大的增长机会。凭借我们的规模和对创新和执行的重新关注，我们在利用这一机会方面处于独特的地位，我相信这仅仅是整个行业十年持续增长的开始。我们第二季度的业绩表明，我们的势头正在增强，我们的执行力正在提高，客户继续选择我们作为领导产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the cash flow statement, Intel said it generated $8.7 billion in cash from operations during the second quarter. It also paid out dividends of $1.4 billion. Here’s the company’s sources and uses of cash year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>从现金流量表来看，英特尔表示第二季度运营产生了87亿美元现金。它还支付了14亿美元的股息。以下是该公司今年迄今为止的现金来源和用途。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae387fa90b12ea9e2b6bdb1be88b9d28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In kneejerk reaction, INTC stock surged, but then pared gains because as Bloomberg notes, on a non-GAAP basis, the Intel numbers were basically in-line; additionally investors were not too happy with the 6% revenue drop in the Data Center Group.</p><p><blockquote>在下意识的反应中，INTC股价飙升，但随后涨幅回落，因为正如彭博社指出的那样，在非公认会计准则的基础上，英特尔的数据基本上是一致的；此外，投资者对数据中心集团收入下降6%不太满意。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33bd591ea1e04d7d1f54f8dea0e62670\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"851\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bottom line: two quarters in, and Intel stock is just 10% higher than where it was at the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>底线：两个季度过去了，英特尔股价仅比年初高出10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Slides As Earnings Underwhelm Despite Raising Guidance<blockquote>尽管提高了指引，英特尔仍因盈利不佳而下滑</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Slides As Earnings Underwhelm Despite Raising Guidance<blockquote>尽管提高了指引，英特尔仍因盈利不佳而下滑</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 15:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is hardly indicative of what to expect as investors will instead be more focused to what the company projects for the future. That said, moments ago INTC reported revenue and earnings which both handily beat expectations, while the company also guided higher. Here are the key Q2 numbers:</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前正在经历巨大的转型，因此其刚刚完成的季度很难预示会发生什么，因为投资者将更关注该公司对未来的规划。也就是说，不久前INTC公布的收入和盈利均轻松超出预期，同时该公司的指引也更高。以下是第二季度的关键数据：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue $19.6B, -0.6% Y/Y,</li>  <li>Adjusted revenue $18.53 billion,<b>beating</b>the estimate of $17.80 billion</li>  <li>Adjusted EPS $1.28, +4% vs $1.23 y/y,<b>beating</b>the estimate $1.07</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bc072b02af7a44345b07a762397b34\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入$19.6 B,-0.6%Y/Y,</li><li>调整后营收185.3亿美元，<b>殴打</b>估计为178亿美元</li><li>调整后每股收益为1.28美元，同比增长4%，为1.23美元，<b>殴打</b>估价1.07美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Looking closer at the company's segments reveals the following revenue picture:</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察该公司的细分市场，可以发现以下收入情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloud Computing was up 6% annually to $10.1 billion, and beating estimates of just under $10 billion</li>  <li>Internet of Things was up 47% to $984 million, beating consensus of $887 million.</li>  <li>MobileEye is up 124% to $327 million, below Bloomberg consensus of $374 million.</li>  <li><b>Data Center Group was down 9% to $6.5 billion</b></li>  <li>Programmable Solutions is down 3% to $486 million</li>  <li>Non-Volatility Memory Solutions is down 34% to $1.1 billion</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729015a114132743e450d1d5d46a6c88\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>云计算每年增长6%，达到101亿美元，超出预期略低于100亿美元</li><li>物联网增长47%至9.84亿美元，超过市场预期的8.87亿美元。</li><li>MobileEye股价上涨124%，至3.27亿美元，低于彭博社预期的3.74亿美元。</li><li><b>数据中心集团下跌9%至65亿美元</b></li><li>可编程解决方案下降3%至4.86亿美元</li><li>非易失性存储器解决方案下降34%至11亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> But as noted above, investors would be more focused on the company's guidance, and while the company projecting Q3 revenues which missed consensus expectations, this was more than offset by a hike to its full year 2021 revenues which means the company now expected Y/Y revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>但如上所述，投资者将更关注该公司的指引，虽然该公司预计第三季度收入未达到普遍预期，但这被2021年全年收入的上调所抵消，这意味着该公司现在预计同比收入增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sees 3Q Adj Rev About $18.2B, Est. $18.27B</li>  <li>Sees FY Rev. $77.6B, Saw $77B</li>  <li><b>Sees FY Adj Rev $73.5B, Saw $72.5B, Est. $73.13B</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5fd5c0ff82f93fafb496becdd13eb7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There were more good news in the company's gross margin which surged from 55.2% currently to 59.2% vs. 54.8% a year ago, and solidly above the estimate 57.0%. Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductors analyst,&nbsp;Anand Srinivasan,&nbsp; said he was surprised by the strength of Intel’s margin.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计第三季度调整后Rev约为$18.2 B。$18.27 B</li><li>财年修订版$77.6 B，Saw$77B</li><li><b>预计财年调整后Rev$73.5 B，预计为$72.5 B。$73.13 B</b></li></ul>该公司的毛利率还有更多好消息，从目前的55.2%飙升至59.2%，而一年前为54.8%，远高于预期的57.0%。Bloomberg Intelligence半导体分析师Anand Srinivasan表示，他对英特尔的利润率感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Healthy year-over-year growth in PCs and enterprise data center, along with a weak showing for cloud revenue came as no surprise, though.</p><p><blockquote>不过，个人电脑和企业数据中心的健康同比增长以及云收入的疲软表现并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the results, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that \"there’s never been a more exciting time to be in the semiconductor industry. The digitization of everything continues to accelerate, creating a vast growth opportunity for us and our customers across core and emerging business areas. With our scale and renewed focus on both innovation and execution, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, which I believe is merely the beginning of what will be a decade of sustained growth across the industry. Our second-quarter results show that our momentum is building, our execution is improving, and customers continue to choose us for leadership products.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Pat Gelsinger在评论结果时表示：“半导体行业从未像现在这样令人兴奋。一切的数字化继续加速，为我们和我们的客户在核心和新兴业务领域创造了巨大的增长机会。凭借我们的规模和对创新和执行的重新关注，我们在利用这一机会方面处于独特的地位，我相信这仅仅是整个行业十年持续增长的开始。我们第二季度的业绩表明，我们的势头正在增强，我们的执行力正在提高，客户继续选择我们作为领导产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the cash flow statement, Intel said it generated $8.7 billion in cash from operations during the second quarter. It also paid out dividends of $1.4 billion. Here’s the company’s sources and uses of cash year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>从现金流量表来看，英特尔表示第二季度运营产生了87亿美元现金。它还支付了14亿美元的股息。以下是该公司今年迄今为止的现金来源和用途。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae387fa90b12ea9e2b6bdb1be88b9d28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In kneejerk reaction, INTC stock surged, but then pared gains because as Bloomberg notes, on a non-GAAP basis, the Intel numbers were basically in-line; additionally investors were not too happy with the 6% revenue drop in the Data Center Group.</p><p><blockquote>在下意识的反应中，INTC股价飙升，但随后涨幅回落，因为正如彭博社指出的那样，在非公认会计准则的基础上，英特尔的数据基本上是一致的；此外，投资者对数据中心集团收入下降6%不太满意。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33bd591ea1e04d7d1f54f8dea0e62670\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"851\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bottom line: two quarters in, and Intel stock is just 10% higher than where it was at the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>底线：两个季度过去了，英特尔股价仅比年初高出10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intel-slides-earnings-underwhelm-despite-raising-guidance\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intel-slides-earnings-underwhelm-despite-raising-guidance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122376593","content_text":"Intel is currently undergoing a dramatic transformation, and as such its just completed quarter is hardly indicative of what to expect as investors will instead be more focused to what the company projects for the future. That said, moments ago INTC reported revenue and earnings which both handily beat expectations, while the company also guided higher. Here are the key Q2 numbers:\n\nRevenue $19.6B, -0.6% Y/Y,\nAdjusted revenue $18.53 billion,beatingthe estimate of $17.80 billion\nAdjusted EPS $1.28, +4% vs $1.23 y/y,beatingthe estimate $1.07\n\n\nLooking closer at the company's segments reveals the following revenue picture:\n\nCloud Computing was up 6% annually to $10.1 billion, and beating estimates of just under $10 billion\nInternet of Things was up 47% to $984 million, beating consensus of $887 million.\nMobileEye is up 124% to $327 million, below Bloomberg consensus of $374 million.\nData Center Group was down 9% to $6.5 billion\nProgrammable Solutions is down 3% to $486 million\nNon-Volatility Memory Solutions is down 34% to $1.1 billion\n\n\nBut as noted above, investors would be more focused on the company's guidance, and while the company projecting Q3 revenues which missed consensus expectations, this was more than offset by a hike to its full year 2021 revenues which means the company now expected Y/Y revenue growth:\n\nSees 3Q Adj Rev About $18.2B, Est. $18.27B\nSees FY Rev. $77.6B, Saw $77B\nSees FY Adj Rev $73.5B, Saw $72.5B, Est. $73.13B\n\nThere were more good news in the company's gross margin which surged from 55.2% currently to 59.2% vs. 54.8% a year ago, and solidly above the estimate 57.0%. Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductors analyst, Anand Srinivasan,  said he was surprised by the strength of Intel’s margin.\nHealthy year-over-year growth in PCs and enterprise data center, along with a weak showing for cloud revenue came as no surprise, though.\nCommenting on the results, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that \"there’s never been a more exciting time to be in the semiconductor industry. The digitization of everything continues to accelerate, creating a vast growth opportunity for us and our customers across core and emerging business areas. With our scale and renewed focus on both innovation and execution, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, which I believe is merely the beginning of what will be a decade of sustained growth across the industry. Our second-quarter results show that our momentum is building, our execution is improving, and customers continue to choose us for leadership products.\"\nLooking at the cash flow statement, Intel said it generated $8.7 billion in cash from operations during the second quarter. It also paid out dividends of $1.4 billion. Here’s the company’s sources and uses of cash year-to-date.\nIn kneejerk reaction, INTC stock surged, but then pared gains because as Bloomberg notes, on a non-GAAP basis, the Intel numbers were basically in-line; additionally investors were not too happy with the 6% revenue drop in the Data Center Group.\nBottom line: two quarters in, and Intel stock is just 10% higher than where it was at the start of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154900109,"gmtCreate":1625464860901,"gmtModify":1631885482429,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154900109","repostId":"1179512141","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804938644,"gmtCreate":1627915214188,"gmtModify":1633755297989,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this it?","listText":"Is this it?","text":"Is this it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804938644","repostId":"1155693481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155693481","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627913458,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155693481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla rose nearly 5% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉早盘涨近5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155693481","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $Tesla Motors$ rose nearly 5% in morning trading.Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.In addition ,Last Thursday, Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.The patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more ","content":"<p>(August 2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> rose nearly 5% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月2日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>早盘涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>Elon Musk确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;addition&nbsp;,Last Thursday,&nbsp;Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.</p><p><blockquote>此外，上周四，Benzinga提醒其用户特斯拉已申请一项专利，允许其从旧锂离子电动汽车电池中回收和再循环镍和钴。</blockquote></p><p> The patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>这项名为“通过电化学溶解的金属硫酸盐制造系统”的专利将使这家电动汽车和技术公司能够回收两种关键的电池金属原料并重复利用它们，从而提高其供应链的效率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9faf5c64c1d04f0efe8c72c78addc130\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla rose nearly 5% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉早盘涨近5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla rose nearly 5% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉早盘涨近5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 22:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> rose nearly 5% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月2日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>早盘涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>Elon Musk确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;addition&nbsp;,Last Thursday,&nbsp;Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.</p><p><blockquote>此外，上周四，Benzinga提醒其用户特斯拉已申请一项专利，允许其从旧锂离子电动汽车电池中回收和再循环镍和钴。</blockquote></p><p> The patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>这项名为“通过电化学溶解的金属硫酸盐制造系统”的专利将使这家电动汽车和技术公司能够回收两种关键的电池金属原料并重复利用它们，从而提高其供应链的效率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9faf5c64c1d04f0efe8c72c78addc130\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155693481","content_text":"(August 2) Tesla Motors rose nearly 5% in morning trading.\nElon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\nIn addition ,Last Thursday, Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.\nThe patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more efficient.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157724534,"gmtCreate":1625616565528,"gmtModify":1633939107623,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I bet raise. In the end drop a bit.","listText":"I bet raise. In the end drop a bit.","text":"I bet raise. In the end drop a bit.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157724534","repostId":"1122166072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155140679,"gmtCreate":1625393429091,"gmtModify":1633940977758,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like me like me","listText":"Like me like me","text":"Like me like 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ideas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152646965","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148025897,"gmtCreate":1625903734219,"gmtModify":1633936194487,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest with a last move up your sleeve","listText":"Invest with a last move up your sleeve","text":"Invest with a last move up your sleeve","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148025897","repostId":"2150053623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150053623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625883910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150053623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150053623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an infla","content":"<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157921810,"gmtCreate":1625560719430,"gmtModify":1633939636935,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gimme like.","listText":"Gimme like.","text":"Gimme like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157921810","repostId":"2149466331","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152646530,"gmtCreate":1625291013920,"gmtModify":1633941668445,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crucial moments. Like","listText":"Crucial moments. Like","text":"Crucial moments. Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152646530","repostId":"1197906560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197906560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625285328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197906560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197906560","media":"Barron's","summary":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat ","content":"<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她说，在调整低工资休闲、酒店业和零售业工人返回之后，6月份的平均时薪比5月份上涨了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她说，在调整低工资休闲、酒店业和零售业工人返回之后，6月份的平均时薪比5月份上涨了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197906560","content_text":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\nOne might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.\nFirst, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.\nWhat’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nSecond, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.\nThird, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.\n“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.\nFurther highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.\nSo, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.\nThe degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.\nWhile about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.\nAt least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.\nAll of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.\nNot so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.\nIf that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.\nTherein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.\nInvestors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155660128,"gmtCreate":1625412758964,"gmtModify":1633940864338,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Opportunitiesvis out there.&nbsp; Waiting for all to grasp","listText":"Opportunitiesvis out there.&nbsp; Waiting for all to grasp","text":"Opportunitiesvis out there. Waiting for all to grasp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155660128","repostId":"1109375790","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109375790","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625370494,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109375790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-04 11:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why high-quality, trustworthy companies have beaten the S&P 500 by 30%-50%<blockquote>为什么高质量、值得信赖的公司击败了标普500 30%-50%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109375790","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.Trust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.  Within an organization, trust percolates into culture. Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.  Quality shareholders  who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders — maintain this viewpoint in their investment practice.TheTrust Across America initiative has identified the most trustworthy U.S. public co","content":"<p>  <b>More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.</b>  Trust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.&nbsp; Within an organization, trust percolates into culture.&nbsp;Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.&nbsp; Quality shareholders (QS) who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders —&nbsp;maintain this&nbsp;viewpoint in their investment practice.</p><p><blockquote><b>更可预测的业务往往是更有利可图的股票投资。</b>信任是公司可以培养的最有价值的资产之一。在一个组织内，信任渗透到文化中。在组织之外，它转化为忠诚。重视所有利益相关者（员工、客户和股东）之间长期信任的优质股东（QS）在其投资实践中坚持这一观点。</blockquote></p><p> TheTrust Across America(TAA) initiative has identified the most&nbsp;trustworthy&nbsp;U.S. public&nbsp;companies using objective&nbsp;and quantitative&nbsp;indicators including accounting&nbsp;conservativeness&nbsp;and financial stability, as well as a secondary screen of more subjective criteria such as employee reviews and news reports.</p><p><blockquote>全美信任(TAA)倡议已经确定了最值得信赖的美国。上市公司使用客观和定量指标，包括会计稳健性和财务稳定性，以及员工评论和新闻报道等更主观标准的二级筛选。</blockquote></p><p> Companies regarded as trustworthy also tend to rate highly in rankings of shareholder quality produced by the&nbsp;Quality Shareholders Initiative&nbsp;(QSI), which I run, as well as the proprietary database of&nbsp;EQX, which I use to cross-check the QSI data.</p><p><blockquote>被认为值得信赖的公司在我负责的质量股东倡议（QSI）以及我用来交叉检查QSI数据的EQX专有数据库制作的股东质量排名中也往往排名很高。</blockquote></p><p> TAA’s assessment of the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.75%in 2020 identified 51 companies, of which 49&nbsp;are also included in the QSI rankings. Comparing the two, more than one-fourth of the top TAA companies are in the top decile of the QSI; two-thirds are in the top quarter, and all but two (92%) are in the top half.</p><p><blockquote>TAA对2020年标准普尔500SPX指数+0.75%的评估确定了51家公司，其中49家也被纳入QSI排名。比较两者，超过四分之一的TAA顶级公司位于QSI的前十分位；三分之二位于前四分之一，除两人（92%）外，其余均位于前半部分。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, both the TAA top 10 and the QSI Top 25 outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 30% and 50%, respectively, in recent five-year periods. Here’s a sampling of companies scoring high on both trust and quality:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，近五年来，TAA前10名和QSI前25名的表现分别比标普500高出30%和50%。以下是在信任度和质量方面得分较高的公司样本：</blockquote></p><p> Texas InstrumentsTXN,+0.72%makes most of its revenue selling computer chips and is among the world’s largest manufacturers of semiconductors. Founded by a group of electrical engineers in 1951, the company boasts a culture of intelligent innovation. Its business is protected by four protective “moats” including: manufacturing and technology skill thanks to its employees; a broad portfolio of processing chips to meet a wide range of customer needs; the reach of its market channels thanks to both, and its diversity and longevity.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器STXN,+0.72%的大部分收入来自销售计算机芯片，是全球最大的半导体制造商之一。该公司由一群电气工程师于1951年创立，拥有智能创新文化。其业务受到四条保护性“护城河”的保护，包括：得益于员工的制造和技术技能；广泛的处理芯片产品组合，满足广泛的客户需求；其市场渠道的覆盖范围得益于这两者，以及其多样性和寿命。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, this adds up to a winning recipe, particularly when combined with Texas Instruments’s capital management strategy, which is to maximize the company’s long-term growth in free cash-flow per share and to&nbsp;allocate such capital in accordance with the QS playbook&nbsp;that prioritizes wise reinvestment, disciplined acquisitions, low-priced share buybacks and shareholder dividends. Some of the company’s notable QSs include: Alliance Bernstein, Bessemer Group, Capital World Investors, State Farm Mutual, and T. Rowe Price Group.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，这是一个制胜秘诀，特别是与德州仪器的资本管理策略相结合时，该策略旨在最大限度地提高公司每股自由现金流的长期增长，并根据QS剧本分配此类资本，优先考虑明智的再投资、严格的收购、低价股票回购和股东股息。该公司一些著名的QS包括：Alliance Bernstein、Bessemer Group、Capital World Investors、State Farm Mutual和T.Rowe Price Group。</blockquote></p><p> Another stock on this list, EcolabECL,+0.77%,is a global leader in water treatment. Founded in 1923 as the Economics Laboratory, its long-term outlook shows in the longevity of senior leadership: the company has had just seven CEOs in almost 100 years of existence.</p><p><blockquote>这份名单上的另一只股票EcolabECL，+0.77%，是水处理领域的全球领导者。该公司成立于1923年，原名经济实验室，其长期前景体现在高级领导层的长寿上：该公司在近100年的历史中只有7位首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Those CEOs inculcated a culture of customer care, a relentless focus on helping customers solve problems and meet goals. A learning organization, such a performance culture permeates the business from production to sales, as employees commit to the long-term goal of being indispensable to customers. Management rewards that employee conviction with long-term incentives and a high degree of autonomy.&nbsp;Ecolab’s QSs include: Cantillon Capital, Clearbridge Investments, Franklin Resources, and the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>这些首席执行官灌输了一种客户关怀文化，坚持不懈地帮助客户解决问题和实现目标。作为一个学习型组织，这种绩效文化渗透到从生产到销售的业务中，因为员工致力于成为客户不可或缺的长期目标。管理层通过长期激励和高度自主权来奖励员工的信念。艺康的QSs包括：Cantillon Capital、Clearbridge Investments、Franklin Resources和盖茨基金会。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, consider Ball CorporationBLL,-0.68%,the world’s largest manufacturer of recyclable containers.&nbsp; Founded in the late 1800s by two brother-entrepreneurs who foresaw that the Mason jar patent was about to expire and built a glassblowing facility to manufacture such jars.</p><p><blockquote>最后，考虑一下全球最大的可回收容器制造商Ball CorporationBLL，-0.68%。该公司由两位企业家兄弟于1800年代末创立，他们预见到梅森罐专利即将到期，并建造了一座玻璃吹制工厂来制造此类罐子。</blockquote></p><p> Ball remains characterized by a culture of family, innovation and natural-resources conscientiousness. For instance, Ball foresaw the ecological and commercial need to pivot away from PET and glass containers, both costly to recycle and posing environmental damage, and towards eco-friendly and profitable aluminum. The company adopts economic value added (EVA) to assure every dollar is well-spent, long-term employee incentive compensation to reward long-term sustainable growth, and a spirit of entrepreneurial freedom. QSs include: Chilton Investment Co.; T. Rowe Price; Wellington&nbsp;Management Group and&nbsp;Winslow Capital Management.</p><p><blockquote>鲍尔的特点仍然是家庭、创新和自然资源意识的文化。例如，鲍尔预见到生态和商业需要从回收成本高且对环境造成破坏的PET和玻璃容器转向环保且有利可图的铝。该公司采用经济附加值（EVA）来确保每一美元都花得值，长期员工激励薪酬来奖励长期可持续增长，以及创业自由精神。QSs包括：奇尔顿投资公司；T.罗普莱斯；惠灵顿管理集团和温斯洛资本管理公司。</blockquote></p><p> While some investors focus solely on the bottom line and others only on signals of corporate virtue, QSs are holistic, considering the inherent relationship between trust and long-term value. Nebulous as the notion of trust in corporate culture might seem, it’s a profitable as well as ethical value to probe.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些投资者只关注底线，而另一些投资者只关注企业美德的信号，但考虑到信任和长期价值之间的内在关系，QSs是全面的。尽管企业文化中的信任概念看起来很模糊，但它是一个值得探索的有利可图的道德价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why high-quality, trustworthy companies have beaten the S&P 500 by 30%-50%<blockquote>为什么高质量、值得信赖的公司击败了标普500 30%-50%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy high-quality, trustworthy companies have beaten the S&P 500 by 30%-50%<blockquote>为什么高质量、值得信赖的公司击败了标普500 30%-50%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-04 11:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.</b>  Trust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.&nbsp; Within an organization, trust percolates into culture.&nbsp;Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.&nbsp; Quality shareholders (QS) who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders —&nbsp;maintain this&nbsp;viewpoint in their investment practice.</p><p><blockquote><b>更可预测的业务往往是更有利可图的股票投资。</b>信任是公司可以培养的最有价值的资产之一。在一个组织内，信任渗透到文化中。在组织之外，它转化为忠诚。重视所有利益相关者（员工、客户和股东）之间长期信任的优质股东（QS）在其投资实践中坚持这一观点。</blockquote></p><p> TheTrust Across America(TAA) initiative has identified the most&nbsp;trustworthy&nbsp;U.S. public&nbsp;companies using objective&nbsp;and quantitative&nbsp;indicators including accounting&nbsp;conservativeness&nbsp;and financial stability, as well as a secondary screen of more subjective criteria such as employee reviews and news reports.</p><p><blockquote>全美信任(TAA)倡议已经确定了最值得信赖的美国。上市公司使用客观和定量指标，包括会计稳健性和财务稳定性，以及员工评论和新闻报道等更主观标准的二级筛选。</blockquote></p><p> Companies regarded as trustworthy also tend to rate highly in rankings of shareholder quality produced by the&nbsp;Quality Shareholders Initiative&nbsp;(QSI), which I run, as well as the proprietary database of&nbsp;EQX, which I use to cross-check the QSI data.</p><p><blockquote>被认为值得信赖的公司在我负责的质量股东倡议（QSI）以及我用来交叉检查QSI数据的EQX专有数据库制作的股东质量排名中也往往排名很高。</blockquote></p><p> TAA’s assessment of the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.75%in 2020 identified 51 companies, of which 49&nbsp;are also included in the QSI rankings. Comparing the two, more than one-fourth of the top TAA companies are in the top decile of the QSI; two-thirds are in the top quarter, and all but two (92%) are in the top half.</p><p><blockquote>TAA对2020年标准普尔500SPX指数+0.75%的评估确定了51家公司，其中49家也被纳入QSI排名。比较两者，超过四分之一的TAA顶级公司位于QSI的前十分位；三分之二位于前四分之一，除两人（92%）外，其余均位于前半部分。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, both the TAA top 10 and the QSI Top 25 outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 30% and 50%, respectively, in recent five-year periods. Here’s a sampling of companies scoring high on both trust and quality:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，近五年来，TAA前10名和QSI前25名的表现分别比标普500高出30%和50%。以下是在信任度和质量方面得分较高的公司样本：</blockquote></p><p> Texas InstrumentsTXN,+0.72%makes most of its revenue selling computer chips and is among the world’s largest manufacturers of semiconductors. Founded by a group of electrical engineers in 1951, the company boasts a culture of intelligent innovation. Its business is protected by four protective “moats” including: manufacturing and technology skill thanks to its employees; a broad portfolio of processing chips to meet a wide range of customer needs; the reach of its market channels thanks to both, and its diversity and longevity.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器STXN,+0.72%的大部分收入来自销售计算机芯片，是全球最大的半导体制造商之一。该公司由一群电气工程师于1951年创立，拥有智能创新文化。其业务受到四条保护性“护城河”的保护，包括：得益于员工的制造和技术技能；广泛的处理芯片产品组合，满足广泛的客户需求；其市场渠道的覆盖范围得益于这两者，以及其多样性和寿命。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, this adds up to a winning recipe, particularly when combined with Texas Instruments’s capital management strategy, which is to maximize the company’s long-term growth in free cash-flow per share and to&nbsp;allocate such capital in accordance with the QS playbook&nbsp;that prioritizes wise reinvestment, disciplined acquisitions, low-priced share buybacks and shareholder dividends. Some of the company’s notable QSs include: Alliance Bernstein, Bessemer Group, Capital World Investors, State Farm Mutual, and T. Rowe Price Group.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，这是一个制胜秘诀，特别是与德州仪器的资本管理策略相结合时，该策略旨在最大限度地提高公司每股自由现金流的长期增长，并根据QS剧本分配此类资本，优先考虑明智的再投资、严格的收购、低价股票回购和股东股息。该公司一些著名的QS包括：Alliance Bernstein、Bessemer Group、Capital World Investors、State Farm Mutual和T.Rowe Price Group。</blockquote></p><p> Another stock on this list, EcolabECL,+0.77%,is a global leader in water treatment. Founded in 1923 as the Economics Laboratory, its long-term outlook shows in the longevity of senior leadership: the company has had just seven CEOs in almost 100 years of existence.</p><p><blockquote>这份名单上的另一只股票EcolabECL，+0.77%，是水处理领域的全球领导者。该公司成立于1923年，原名经济实验室，其长期前景体现在高级领导层的长寿上：该公司在近100年的历史中只有7位首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Those CEOs inculcated a culture of customer care, a relentless focus on helping customers solve problems and meet goals. A learning organization, such a performance culture permeates the business from production to sales, as employees commit to the long-term goal of being indispensable to customers. Management rewards that employee conviction with long-term incentives and a high degree of autonomy.&nbsp;Ecolab’s QSs include: Cantillon Capital, Clearbridge Investments, Franklin Resources, and the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>这些首席执行官灌输了一种客户关怀文化，坚持不懈地帮助客户解决问题和实现目标。作为一个学习型组织，这种绩效文化渗透到从生产到销售的业务中，因为员工致力于成为客户不可或缺的长期目标。管理层通过长期激励和高度自主权来奖励员工的信念。艺康的QSs包括：Cantillon Capital、Clearbridge Investments、Franklin Resources和盖茨基金会。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, consider Ball CorporationBLL,-0.68%,the world’s largest manufacturer of recyclable containers.&nbsp; Founded in the late 1800s by two brother-entrepreneurs who foresaw that the Mason jar patent was about to expire and built a glassblowing facility to manufacture such jars.</p><p><blockquote>最后，考虑一下全球最大的可回收容器制造商Ball CorporationBLL，-0.68%。该公司由两位企业家兄弟于1800年代末创立，他们预见到梅森罐专利即将到期，并建造了一座玻璃吹制工厂来制造此类罐子。</blockquote></p><p> Ball remains characterized by a culture of family, innovation and natural-resources conscientiousness. For instance, Ball foresaw the ecological and commercial need to pivot away from PET and glass containers, both costly to recycle and posing environmental damage, and towards eco-friendly and profitable aluminum. The company adopts economic value added (EVA) to assure every dollar is well-spent, long-term employee incentive compensation to reward long-term sustainable growth, and a spirit of entrepreneurial freedom. QSs include: Chilton Investment Co.; T. Rowe Price; Wellington&nbsp;Management Group and&nbsp;Winslow Capital Management.</p><p><blockquote>鲍尔的特点仍然是家庭、创新和自然资源意识的文化。例如，鲍尔预见到生态和商业需要从回收成本高且对环境造成破坏的PET和玻璃容器转向环保且有利可图的铝。该公司采用经济附加值（EVA）来确保每一美元都花得值，长期员工激励薪酬来奖励长期可持续增长，以及创业自由精神。QSs包括：奇尔顿投资公司；T.罗普莱斯；惠灵顿管理集团和温斯洛资本管理公司。</blockquote></p><p> While some investors focus solely on the bottom line and others only on signals of corporate virtue, QSs are holistic, considering the inherent relationship between trust and long-term value. Nebulous as the notion of trust in corporate culture might seem, it’s a profitable as well as ethical value to probe.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些投资者只关注底线，而另一些投资者只关注企业美德的信号，但考虑到信任和长期价值之间的内在关系，QSs是全面的。尽管企业文化中的信任概念看起来很模糊，但它是一个值得探索的有利可图的道德价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-high-quality-trustworthy-companies-have-beaten-the-s-p-500-by-30-50-11625020379?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-high-quality-trustworthy-companies-have-beaten-the-s-p-500-by-30-50-11625020379?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109375790","content_text":"More predictable businesses tend to be more profitable stock investments.\n\nTrust is one of the most valuable assets a company can cultivate.  Within an organization, trust percolates into culture. Outside an organization, it translates into loyalty.  Quality shareholders (QS) who value long-term trust among all stakeholders — employees, customers and shareholders — maintain this viewpoint in their investment practice.\nTheTrust Across America(TAA) initiative has identified the most trustworthy U.S. public companies using objective and quantitative indicators including accounting conservativeness and financial stability, as well as a secondary screen of more subjective criteria such as employee reviews and news reports.\nCompanies regarded as trustworthy also tend to rate highly in rankings of shareholder quality produced by the Quality Shareholders Initiative (QSI), which I run, as well as the proprietary database of EQX, which I use to cross-check the QSI data.\nTAA’s assessment of the S&P 500SPX,+0.75%in 2020 identified 51 companies, of which 49 are also included in the QSI rankings. Comparing the two, more than one-fourth of the top TAA companies are in the top decile of the QSI; two-thirds are in the top quarter, and all but two (92%) are in the top half.\nNotably, both the TAA top 10 and the QSI Top 25 outperformed the S&P 500 by 30% and 50%, respectively, in recent five-year periods. Here’s a sampling of companies scoring high on both trust and quality:\nTexas InstrumentsTXN,+0.72%makes most of its revenue selling computer chips and is among the world’s largest manufacturers of semiconductors. Founded by a group of electrical engineers in 1951, the company boasts a culture of intelligent innovation. Its business is protected by four protective “moats” including: manufacturing and technology skill thanks to its employees; a broad portfolio of processing chips to meet a wide range of customer needs; the reach of its market channels thanks to both, and its diversity and longevity.\nFor investors, this adds up to a winning recipe, particularly when combined with Texas Instruments’s capital management strategy, which is to maximize the company’s long-term growth in free cash-flow per share and to allocate such capital in accordance with the QS playbook that prioritizes wise reinvestment, disciplined acquisitions, low-priced share buybacks and shareholder dividends. Some of the company’s notable QSs include: Alliance Bernstein, Bessemer Group, Capital World Investors, State Farm Mutual, and T. Rowe Price Group.\nAnother stock on this list, EcolabECL,+0.77%,is a global leader in water treatment. Founded in 1923 as the Economics Laboratory, its long-term outlook shows in the longevity of senior leadership: the company has had just seven CEOs in almost 100 years of existence.\nThose CEOs inculcated a culture of customer care, a relentless focus on helping customers solve problems and meet goals. A learning organization, such a performance culture permeates the business from production to sales, as employees commit to the long-term goal of being indispensable to customers. Management rewards that employee conviction with long-term incentives and a high degree of autonomy. Ecolab’s QSs include: Cantillon Capital, Clearbridge Investments, Franklin Resources, and the Gates Foundation.\nFinally, consider Ball CorporationBLL,-0.68%,the world’s largest manufacturer of recyclable containers.  Founded in the late 1800s by two brother-entrepreneurs who foresaw that the Mason jar patent was about to expire and built a glassblowing facility to manufacture such jars.\nBall remains characterized by a culture of family, innovation and natural-resources conscientiousness. For instance, Ball foresaw the ecological and commercial need to pivot away from PET and glass containers, both costly to recycle and posing environmental damage, and towards eco-friendly and profitable aluminum. The company adopts economic value added (EVA) to assure every dollar is well-spent, long-term employee incentive compensation to reward long-term sustainable growth, and a spirit of entrepreneurial freedom. QSs include: Chilton Investment Co.; T. Rowe Price; Wellington Management Group and Winslow Capital Management.\nWhile some investors focus solely on the bottom line and others only on signals of corporate virtue, QSs are holistic, considering the inherent relationship between trust and long-term value. Nebulous as the notion of trust in corporate culture might seem, it’s a profitable as well as ethical value to probe.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140440755,"gmtCreate":1625670179677,"gmtModify":1633938492796,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SIA go","listText":"SIA go","text":"SIA go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140440755","repostId":"2149318082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897052287,"gmtCreate":1628864415549,"gmtModify":1633688893269,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh yeah","listText":"Oh yeah","text":"Oh yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897052287","repostId":"897013599","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":897013599,"gmtCreate":1628862607911,"gmtModify":1628862607911,"author":{"id":"3503452965237041","authorId":"3503452965237041","name":"美股研究社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a239c7906133df1f3817d0746a8a0ba1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503452965237041","idStr":"3503452965237041"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克：将于10月9日在柏林-勃兰登堡超级工厂举办集市并开放参观，勃兰登堡和柏林的居民优先参与，也对其他公众开放。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克：将于10月9日在柏林-勃兰登堡超级工厂举办集市并开放参观，勃兰登堡和柏林的居民优先参与，也对其他公众开放。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克：将于10月9日在柏林-勃兰登堡超级工厂举办集市并开放参观，勃兰登堡和柏林的居民优先参与，也对其他公众开放。$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a7e3cd0cffd0c82c503f1047f71cce","width":"414","height":"322"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897013599","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804931333,"gmtCreate":1627915151822,"gmtModify":1633755298564,"author":{"id":"3550381179390109","authorId":"3550381179390109","name":"peacecraft","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c25d527a10a1f25cae347617a32ca8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550381179390109","idStr":"3550381179390109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804931333","repostId":"804013390","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":804013390,"gmtCreate":1627911805610,"gmtModify":1628003604977,"author":{"id":"3465849506761816","authorId":"3465849506761816","name":"牛万的投资策略","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9933ff08f0596bc3ca87e199ea6c744c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3465849506761816","idStr":"3465849506761816"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$</a>期权止损出局（牛万的美股实盘8），交易马克","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$</a>期权止损出局（牛万的美股实盘8），交易马克","text":"$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$期权止损出局（牛万的美股实盘8），交易马克","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239dedd2218968946ef288f7782a4b1e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804013390","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}