我是鑫鑫的个人主页 - 老虎社区

我是鑫鑫

我是鑫鑫

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IP属地：河北

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0勋章

2020-09-07

$白银主连(SImain)$ 提前满仓真不好，真的应该管住手[捂脸]

2020-08-28

$白银主连(SImain)$ 又买少了[捂脸]

2020-08-06

$白银主连(SImain)$ 我在26的高位被套牢了，没想到竟然能回本[财迷]

2020-07-28

$白银主连(SImain)$ 这也太刺激了吧，不知所措

2020-07-22

$白银主连(SImain)$ 吓人啊

2020-08-27

$白银主连(SImain)$ 假的吧[捂脸] 又止损了

2020-08-19

$白银主连(SImain)$ 假[捂脸] 先追为敬

2020-08-12

$白银主连(SImain)$ 谁知道这是什么行情啊[捂脸] 快被玩死了

2020-09-24

$白银主连(SImain)$ 天啊，早上一看就瀑布了

2020-09-02

$白银主连(SImain)$ 做多吗，买一手加仓[呆住]

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$&nbsp;</a>天啊，早上一看就瀑布了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$&nbsp;</a>天啊，早上一看就瀑布了","text":"$白银主连(SImain)$ 天啊，早上一看就瀑布了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974963105","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485328831803673","authorId":"3485328831803673","name":"小小飞蟹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3485328831803673","authorIdStr":"3485328831803673"},"content":"下跌趋势已经形成，要么阴跌，要么暴跌。暴跌还有反弹需求，阴跌只能一句下跌了","text":"下跌趋势已经形成，要么阴跌，要么暴跌。暴跌还有反弹需求，阴跌只能一句下跌了","html":"下跌趋势已经形成，要么阴跌，要么暴跌。暴跌还有反弹需求，阴跌只能一句下跌了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975892926,"gmtCreate":1600610302165,"gmtModify":1703821913313,"author":{"id":"3553407536458268","authorId":"3553407536458268","name":"我是鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0473a12ba7dbf4f2796811d001a36ee8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553407536458268","authorIdStr":"3553407536458268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"死而复生吗[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"死而复生吗[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"死而复生吗[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975892926","repostId":"1185629853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185629853","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1600564530,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185629853?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TikTok将开启Pre-IPO融资，估值近5000亿元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185629853","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时","content":"<p>TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时，字节跳动将继续掌握TikTok的控制权，甲骨文和沃尔玛则会分别获得TikTok12.5%和7.5%的股份。(36氪)</p><p><b>TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层</b></p><p>TikTok20日发表声明，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛就“云上加州”方案达成原则性共识。根据提案，TikTok的总部会继续留在美国，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴，该方案不涉及技术及算法转让。在字节跳动的控制下，TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层。TikTok同期会开启新一轮不超过20%比例的融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将会作为具有优先购买权的潜在投资方被引入。</p><p><b>报道称TikTok将在美国设立50亿美元教育基金 字节跳动澄清</b></p><p>字节跳动表示，有媒体报道称，TikTok将在美国设立一个50亿美元的教育基金。 特此澄清，我们也是从新闻中第一次听说50亿美金的教育基金。公司一直致力于教育领域的投入，也计划和合作伙伴、全球股东一起为全球的学生启动基于AI和视频技术的在线课堂项目。</p><p>9月20日早间，字节跳动发布声明称，为了确保1亿美国人能够继续使用TikTok这款高人气的视频及内容应用软件，满足美国政府监管要求，加强TikTok美国业务，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛对TikTok的合作形成原则性共识。三方将按照此共识，尽快达成满足美国和中国法律要求的合作协议。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484ce6b93a1743db6e708423d492af59\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"821\">当天，据环球网报道，美国总统特朗告诉媒体记者，他批准了甲骨文与TikTok的合作协议。“这笔交易得到了我的祝福”，特朗普说，“我在理论上已经批准了交易”。</p><p>据报道，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴。双方将开展类似苹果在中国由“云上贵州”进行的数据安全合规合作。由于TikTok美国业务在加州洛杉矶设有办公室，该方案也被称为“云上加州”。根据业务发展需要，TikTok将继续把美国作为总部，TikTok团队也将持续扩充，新增2.5万个工作岗位。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TikTok将开启Pre-IPO融资，估值近5000亿元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTikTok将开启Pre-IPO融资，估值近5000亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-20 09:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时，字节跳动将继续掌握TikTok的控制权，甲骨文和沃尔玛则会分别获得TikTok12.5%和7.5%的股份。(36氪)</p><p><b>TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层</b></p><p>TikTok20日发表声明，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛就“云上加州”方案达成原则性共识。根据提案，TikTok的总部会继续留在美国，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴，该方案不涉及技术及算法转让。在字节跳动的控制下，TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层。TikTok同期会开启新一轮不超过20%比例的融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将会作为具有优先购买权的潜在投资方被引入。</p><p><b>报道称TikTok将在美国设立50亿美元教育基金 字节跳动澄清</b></p><p>字节跳动表示，有媒体报道称，TikTok将在美国设立一个50亿美元的教育基金。 特此澄清，我们也是从新闻中第一次听说50亿美金的教育基金。公司一直致力于教育领域的投入，也计划和合作伙伴、全球股东一起为全球的学生启动基于AI和视频技术的在线课堂项目。</p><p>9月20日早间，字节跳动发布声明称，为了确保1亿美国人能够继续使用TikTok这款高人气的视频及内容应用软件，满足美国政府监管要求，加强TikTok美国业务，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛对TikTok的合作形成原则性共识。三方将按照此共识，尽快达成满足美国和中国法律要求的合作协议。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484ce6b93a1743db6e708423d492af59\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"821\">当天，据环球网报道，美国总统特朗告诉媒体记者，他批准了甲骨文与TikTok的合作协议。“这笔交易得到了我的祝福”，特朗普说，“我在理论上已经批准了交易”。</p><p>据报道，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴。双方将开展类似苹果在中国由“云上贵州”进行的数据安全合规合作。由于TikTok美国业务在加州洛杉矶设有办公室，该方案也被称为“云上加州”。根据业务发展需要，TikTok将继续把美国作为总部，TikTok团队也将持续扩充，新增2.5万个工作岗位。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6956fc800ccc510ede7a2b4dfb9413f7","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185629853","content_text":"TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时，字节跳动将继续掌握TikTok的控制权，甲骨文和沃尔玛则会分别获得TikTok12.5%和7.5%的股份。(36氪)TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层TikTok20日发表声明，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛就“云上加州”方案达成原则性共识。根据提案，TikTok的总部会继续留在美国，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴，该方案不涉及技术及算法转让。在字节跳动的控制下，TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层。TikTok同期会开启新一轮不超过20%比例的融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将会作为具有优先购买权的潜在投资方被引入。报道称TikTok将在美国设立50亿美元教育基金 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还是继续等待？ 历史中第23个月调整情况 在过往历史中，第20-23个月的月线级别调整，其调整幅度一般不会少于10%，若此前涨幅比较快速，则下跌幅度较大和速度也较快，幅度大概到20%左右。由于此前黄金涨速较快，3周大涨15%，因此按过往规律，当前的调整幅度略为偏小。所以谨慎看涨比较合理，当大跌20%时则应该勇于抄底，目前只能再等待了。 不过规律中有个特征是比较固定的，就是调整时间，一般不超过2个月。所以没信心抄底的话，我们可以再过一个月再评估是否做多行情。总的来说，即便趋势不跌，高位震荡也在所难免。 黄金与美联储政策 最近黄金的下跌与美联储公开市场联邦委员会（FOMC）相关会议纪要息息相关。其实自从2019年黄金上涨开始，总的逻辑基调和当前并无太大区别，只要美联储持续宽松，黄金仍易涨难跌，抄底的成功概率较高。 今年是疫情年，除非疫情完全可控，确定不再爆发第三波峰值，那么美联储才有收紧流动性的动机。当前市场普遍预期，美联储会在明年下半年才逐渐收缩流动性，该逻辑与黄金的34个月的长线周期不谋而合。因此黄金跌下来后，看时机抄底是必须的，1700-1800是个十分值得介入的价格区间，如果调整不到这个幅度，可短线交易静待趋势。 白银的短线盘整突破 白银这段时间波动性比黄金大，很适合进行短线交易。短线交易方式有很多，由于单日波幅大（日波幅可达7%），因此大大增加短线可操作性。根据以往在白银身上可以使用2日盘整突破法进行短线下注交易。如图： 当白银日线出现2日盘整时，到第三日就理应准备进行下注，但方向是不确定的，需要主观对盘面进行跟踪，或设定一些简单条件，如创2日新高则多，创2","listText":"在黄金34个月的长期趋势周期中，往往第22-23个月会出现月线级别的调整，这是我在以往帖子和直播课中都有强调过的观点。所以最近黄金的调整，以及调整速度都在预期范围内。那么当前困扰投资者的问题在于，现在就抄底黄金？ 还是继续等待？ 历史中第23个月调整情况 在过往历史中，第20-23个月的月线级别调整，其调整幅度一般不会少于10%，若此前涨幅比较快速，则下跌幅度较大和速度也较快，幅度大概到20%左右。由于此前黄金涨速较快，3周大涨15%，因此按过往规律，当前的调整幅度略为偏小。所以谨慎看涨比较合理，当大跌20%时则应该勇于抄底，目前只能再等待了。 不过规律中有个特征是比较固定的，就是调整时间，一般不超过2个月。所以没信心抄底的话，我们可以再过一个月再评估是否做多行情。总的来说，即便趋势不跌，高位震荡也在所难免。 黄金与美联储政策 最近黄金的下跌与美联储公开市场联邦委员会（FOMC）相关会议纪要息息相关。其实自从2019年黄金上涨开始，总的逻辑基调和当前并无太大区别，只要美联储持续宽松，黄金仍易涨难跌，抄底的成功概率较高。 今年是疫情年，除非疫情完全可控，确定不再爆发第三波峰值，那么美联储才有收紧流动性的动机。当前市场普遍预期，美联储会在明年下半年才逐渐收缩流动性，该逻辑与黄金的34个月的长线周期不谋而合。因此黄金跌下来后，看时机抄底是必须的，1700-1800是个十分值得介入的价格区间，如果调整不到这个幅度，可短线交易静待趋势。 白银的短线盘整突破 白银这段时间波动性比黄金大，很适合进行短线交易。短线交易方式有很多，由于单日波幅大（日波幅可达7%），因此大大增加短线可操作性。根据以往在白银身上可以使用2日盘整突破法进行短线下注交易。如图： 当白银日线出现2日盘整时，到第三日就理应准备进行下注，但方向是不确定的，需要主观对盘面进行跟踪，或设定一些简单条件，如创2日新高则多，创2","text":"在黄金34个月的长期趋势周期中，往往第22-23个月会出现月线级别的调整，这是我在以往帖子和直播课中都有强调过的观点。所以最近黄金的调整，以及调整速度都在预期范围内。那么当前困扰投资者的问题在于，现在就抄底黄金？ 还是继续等待？ 历史中第23个月调整情况 在过往历史中，第20-23个月的月线级别调整，其调整幅度一般不会少于10%，若此前涨幅比较快速，则下跌幅度较大和速度也较快，幅度大概到20%左右。由于此前黄金涨速较快，3周大涨15%，因此按过往规律，当前的调整幅度略为偏小。所以谨慎看涨比较合理，当大跌20%时则应该勇于抄底，目前只能再等待了。 不过规律中有个特征是比较固定的，就是调整时间，一般不超过2个月。所以没信心抄底的话，我们可以再过一个月再评估是否做多行情。总的来说，即便趋势不跌，高位震荡也在所难免。 黄金与美联储政策 最近黄金的下跌与美联储公开市场联邦委员会（FOMC）相关会议纪要息息相关。其实自从2019年黄金上涨开始，总的逻辑基调和当前并无太大区别，只要美联储持续宽松，黄金仍易涨难跌，抄底的成功概率较高。 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快被玩死了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7141d32c7e6d7408dcaa9ad11b3a33e","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947119222","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944432775,"gmtCreate":1597073833197,"gmtModify":1704214328828,"author":{"id":"3553407536458268","authorId":"3553407536458268","name":"我是鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0473a12ba7dbf4f2796811d001a36ee8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553407536458268","authorIdStr":"3553407536458268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944432775","repostId":"944536539","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944903655,"gmtCreate":1596725608277,"gmtModify":1704213374356,"author":{"id":"3553407536458268","authorId":"3553407536458268","name":"我是鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0473a12ba7dbf4f2796811d001a36ee8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553407536458268","authorIdStr":"3553407536458268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我觉得改成接盘者更好[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"我觉得改成接盘者更好[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"我觉得改成接盘者更好[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944903655","repostId":"1180846696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180846696","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1596698242,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180846696?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-06 15:17","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美股十年长牛后，谁能成为接棒者？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180846696","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一波猛涨，最近十年大家都知道是标普500指数的单人solo，那么站在现在的角度看，未来十年最佳投资主题在哪？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b34e62e46cbd0e3f3d459d4760d6d3c\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"392\"></p>\n<p>今年在新冠大流行的影响下，资本市场多次见证历史，国际经济环境也比以往很多时候复杂，央行不停加大对市场的干预，低利率蔓延全球，目前全球大约50%的主权国家政策利率为零甚至低于零，这在以前是不敢想象的，这迫使投资者不得不加大风险偏好来寻求资产的正收益。</p>\n<p>过去十年里，美国股票市场的复合增长率为14.2%，未来十年还能持续吗？分析了过去50年里表现最突出的资产，在下一个十年中的符合增长率只有-4.8%。如果单纯依靠历史经验，美股的黄金十年已然过去。</p>\n<p>从基本面来看，受到这次疫情冲击，美国经济数据低迷，美联储维持接近于0的低利率，短期内继续向上突破很难了。过去十年里，Wilshire 500的市值从7万亿美元上涨到31万美元，约占美国家庭总资产的40%，目前大量美国家庭财富已经被股票市场所裹挟，后续维持市场向上的弹药也不充足。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c378f3716e4b1cc361055086ba61cdba\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>再从股市整体市值对经济影响来看，美股的回报率在未来十年依然没有吸引力。这不仅仅是美国市场一家，全球主要股票市场在未来十年的实际收益都有可能是为负。</p>\n<p>有投资者会想，股市不行就买债。不幸的是，在对全球主要公司债和主权债市场进行仔细分析后发现，未来十年也很难产生大回报。这意味着在全球可交易资产中，81%的资产约合180万亿美元投资会带来负收益，仅仅在商品和货币市场能实现某种形式的资本增值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb3ea0799e1a5aa73406a29b9e5fd3e\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"317\"></p>\n<p>虽然工业品种是少量能带来正收益的投资，但是考虑到其周期性，长期来看对投资组合的影响非常小。另一方面考虑到货币贬值，贵金属会获得青睐，最近涨的也很好，但现在的宏观大环境究竟是通胀还是通缩，业界还在争论，未来也有可能面临通缩的窘境，这会严重影响所有商品价格。</p>\n<p>那么剩下的选择只有现金了，考虑到美国货币供应量以年均42%的速度增长，并且在接下来几年里看不到改变趋势，所以现金也失去价值。选来选去只剩下最后一项资产，既可以对冲货币贬值有可以实现资产增值：比特币。</p>\n<p>从目前的市场规模来看，比特币大约占全球所有资产的4%，占可交易资产总额的7%。假设未来十年，比特币取代黄金市场的15%，这相当于每年有24%的回报。再假设，目前全球可交易资产总额约221万亿美元，如果其中3%流入比特币，那么在未来十年里，每年的回报率将达到44%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c92efe751f5cc4556ebf43c274bbe980\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"746\"></p>\n<p>未来十年加密货币对投资者来说至关重要，但目前的市场规模和潜在的上行收益预期远远落后于其他可交易资产（比如股票、债券等），使得被动投资者还处在观望位置。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股十年长牛后，谁能成为接棒者？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股十年长牛后，谁能成为接棒者？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-06 15:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一波猛涨，最近十年大家都知道是标普500指数的单人solo，那么站在现在的角度看，未来十年最佳投资主题在哪？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b34e62e46cbd0e3f3d459d4760d6d3c\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"392\"></p>\n<p>今年在新冠大流行的影响下，资本市场多次见证历史，国际经济环境也比以往很多时候复杂，央行不停加大对市场的干预，低利率蔓延全球，目前全球大约50%的主权国家政策利率为零甚至低于零，这在以前是不敢想象的，这迫使投资者不得不加大风险偏好来寻求资产的正收益。</p>\n<p>过去十年里，美国股票市场的复合增长率为14.2%，未来十年还能持续吗？分析了过去50年里表现最突出的资产，在下一个十年中的符合增长率只有-4.8%。如果单纯依靠历史经验，美股的黄金十年已然过去。</p>\n<p>从基本面来看，受到这次疫情冲击，美国经济数据低迷，美联储维持接近于0的低利率，短期内继续向上突破很难了。过去十年里，Wilshire 500的市值从7万亿美元上涨到31万美元，约占美国家庭总资产的40%，目前大量美国家庭财富已经被股票市场所裹挟，后续维持市场向上的弹药也不充足。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c378f3716e4b1cc361055086ba61cdba\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>再从股市整体市值对经济影响来看，美股的回报率在未来十年依然没有吸引力。这不仅仅是美国市场一家，全球主要股票市场在未来十年的实际收益都有可能是为负。</p>\n<p>有投资者会想，股市不行就买债。不幸的是，在对全球主要公司债和主权债市场进行仔细分析后发现，未来十年也很难产生大回报。这意味着在全球可交易资产中，81%的资产约合180万亿美元投资会带来负收益，仅仅在商品和货币市场能实现某种形式的资本增值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb3ea0799e1a5aa73406a29b9e5fd3e\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"317\"></p>\n<p>虽然工业品种是少量能带来正收益的投资，但是考虑到其周期性，长期来看对投资组合的影响非常小。另一方面考虑到货币贬值，贵金属会获得青睐，最近涨的也很好，但现在的宏观大环境究竟是通胀还是通缩，业界还在争论，未来也有可能面临通缩的窘境，这会严重影响所有商品价格。</p>\n<p>那么剩下的选择只有现金了，考虑到美国货币供应量以年均42%的速度增长，并且在接下来几年里看不到改变趋势，所以现金也失去价值。选来选去只剩下最后一项资产，既可以对冲货币贬值有可以实现资产增值：比特币。</p>\n<p>从目前的市场规模来看，比特币大约占全球所有资产的4%，占可交易资产总额的7%。假设未来十年，比特币取代黄金市场的15%，这相当于每年有24%的回报。再假设，目前全球可交易资产总额约221万亿美元，如果其中3%流入比特币，那么在未来十年里，每年的回报率将达到44%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c92efe751f5cc4556ebf43c274bbe980\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"746\"></p>\n<p>未来十年加密货币对投资者来说至关重要，但目前的市场规模和潜在的上行收益预期远远落后于其他可交易资产（比如股票、债券等），使得被动投资者还处在观望位置。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d37df08fc08f0ac2466b9b49c053bae7","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180846696","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一波猛涨，最近十年大家都知道是标普500指数的单人solo，那么站在现在的角度看，未来十年最佳投资主题在哪？\n\n今年在新冠大流行的影响下，资本市场多次见证历史，国际经济环境也比以往很多时候复杂，央行不停加大对市场的干预，低利率蔓延全球，目前全球大约50%的主权国家政策利率为零甚至低于零，这在以前是不敢想象的，这迫使投资者不得不加大风险偏好来寻求资产的正收益。\n过去十年里，美国股票市场的复合增长率为14.2%，未来十年还能持续吗？分析了过去50年里表现最突出的资产，在下一个十年中的符合增长率只有-4.8%。如果单纯依靠历史经验，美股的黄金十年已然过去。\n从基本面来看，受到这次疫情冲击，美国经济数据低迷，美联储维持接近于0的低利率，短期内继续向上突破很难了。过去十年里，Wilshire 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