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chanelle
2021-12-18
hello how is every doing
chanelle
2021-12-13
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抱歉，原内容已删除
chanelle
2021-12-13
great
Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>
chanelle
2021-12-06
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,"htmlText":"hello how is every doing","listText":"hello how is every doing","text":"hello how is every doing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699897633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604811465,"gmtCreate":1639368688039,"gmtModify":1639368688168,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554796455509367","idStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811465","repostId":"1163753909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604811854,"gmtCreate":1639368589246,"gmtModify":1639368589369,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554796455509367","idStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811854","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608719720,"gmtCreate":1638789183749,"gmtModify":1638789185420,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554796455509367","idStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608719720","repostId":"2188243825","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":604811854,"gmtCreate":1639368589246,"gmtModify":1639368589369,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811854","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604811465,"gmtCreate":1639368688039,"gmtModify":1639368688168,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811465","repostId":"1163753909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163753909","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639365199,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163753909?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163753909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.\nPalantir no","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.</li> <li>Palantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.</li> <li>Palantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.</li> <li>In today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19fbe474b2b948c1dd476507722b776\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir最近推出了Foundry for Crypto，为金融的未来赋能。</li><li>Palantir现在有机会利用其平台的结缔组织来跟踪去中心化金融应用程序中的资金流。</li><li>Palantir自2013年以来一直与IRS合作，在Foundry发布之前，Gotham是为大型金融机构部署的。</li><li>在今天的文章中，我将重点介绍Palantir可以追溯到PayPal的根源以及Palantir在金融科技领域的机遇。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Olemedia/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir(PLTR)，大多数投资者都对其政府业务以及其在商业领域为建筑商铸造的机会感到兴奋。如今，Palantir约60%的业务来自政府，而另一部分来自商业部门。Palantir的平台以其人工智能(AI)和深度数据洞察而闻名，可为客户提供关键信息，帮助他们实现利润最大化。Palantir的解决方案围绕“任务驱动工程”构建，以集成来自孤立和非结构化数据集的信息。在本文中，我们将探讨Palantir的根源，这些根源可以追溯到支付行业和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal和Palantir联合创始人Peter Thiel于2004年联系了Palantir联合创始人Stephen Cohen，并告诉他他对Palantir的想法，以下是他的设想。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government. And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013 Five years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从PayPal反欺诈平台中获取一些想法，并尝试将它们概括为解决该国的反恐问题。我们将从直接卖给美国政府开始。同时，让我们来解决现有的通用企业信息管理平台。让我们帮助大企业使用硅谷的方法来理解他们的数据。”—Stephen Cohen，2013五年前，Palantir四分之一的业务来自金融领域—虽然Palantir与金融科技的联系表面上可能并不清楚，但该公司有很大的机会为金融科技应用程序部署其人工智能，特别是Foundry，无论是当前的银行还是区块链分析平台Elementus等金融科技公司。Palantir目前为美国国税局和当前的银行基础设施以及未来的创新支付技术（如加密货币和智能合约）提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deep Roots In Payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>深厚的支付根基</b></blockquote></p><p> Much of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的大部分“DNA”和文化都是从PayPal复制的。Palantir的核心技术也受到了PayPal的启发，特别是PayPal的反欺诈平台。Peter Thiel与Max Levchin共同创立了PayPal，后来与Palantir首任首席技术官Nathan Gettings共同创立了Palantir，后者是PayPal的一名工程师，在那里他与Levchin密切合作打击支付欺诈。这个PayPal反欺诈框架将继续为Palantir的第一个反恐举措提供基本构建模块。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir在政府内部部署类似于为大型金融机构部署的技术。金融机构必须克服的挑战与政府面临的挑战相似，因为有许多数据源和许多系统向金融服务部门和政府部门提供输入。Palantir使用深度数据分析来识别这些信息中的模式和趋势，以帮助客户管理风险并执行计划，从而更好地应对不断变化的复杂环境。</blockquote></p><p> In 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.</p><p><blockquote>据其S1报道，2016年，Palantir约25%的业务来自金融领域，因为Palantir部署了Gotham平台来调查大型机构的欺诈行为。Palantir与许多银行合作，取代了已有30多年历史的遗留技术。例如，瑞士信贷自2013年以来一直使用Palantir，利用其运营中一百多个系统的数据来分析风险和检测欺诈行为。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir寻求成为整个行业的中央操作系统，而不仅仅是单一客户，Palantir看到了在金融服务行业建立类似于美国政府和航空业的全行业合作伙伴关系的机会。Palantir不断赢得政府合同，而Palantir于2017年与空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)合作推出SkyWise，目前与100多家航空公司合作。</blockquote></p><p> Significant Opportunity At Hand</p><p><blockquote>手头的重大机遇</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.</p><p><blockquote>11月23日，Palantir推出了Foundry for Crypto，它将利用Foundry定义的数据集成来自动构建数据管道，并将无组织的数据转换为透明的中枢。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto将使Web3初创公司能够利用金融机构用来打击犯罪的技术。随着当前数字化转型的进行以及加密货币和区块链技术的兴起，Palantir利用其数据专业知识为下一代财务软件提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a3fb5ad32eff1f464c225cc4b1f1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"621\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Offerings | Crypto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：产品|Crypto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Palantir是链不可知的，这意味着Palantir可以与多个区块链一起工作。Palantir集成了交易数据和智能合约数据，这将使Palantir能够利用其人工智能和数据分析的核心能力来提供KYC（了解您的客户）见解。例如，如果有人要使用非托管钱包中的加密货币进行交易，那么从该钱包中破译KYC信息通常是一个挑战，因为区块链本身是加密和去中心化的。Palantir跟踪非托管钱包中的资产，并跟踪资产的转移地点。这使得Palantir能够找到资产最初转移的交易所，然后Palantir可以跟踪购买资产的加密货币交易所的客户数据，例如Coinbase。</blockquote></p><p> The example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.</p><p><blockquote>上面的例子强调了Palantir如何深入挖掘并从区块链中抓取数据来了解特定个人。这对于验证安全交易大有帮助，因为Palantir会根据交易的位置和特定属性识别区块链上的恶意交易。希望接受加密货币的公司需要安全的解决方案，同时他们也希望收集客户周围的见解来推动他们的业务。BNPL公司，例如由Max Levchin和Nathan Gettings创立的Affirm，使用高级风险建模（也称为人工智能）为消费者提供更公平的信用评估，因为BNPL公司可以访问来自商家和消费者的重要数据。Palantir可以利用其人工智能和数据洞察来帮助客户更好地了解他们的客户，从而提供有针对性的营销活动或帮助他们发现减少开支的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto仍处于早期采用阶段，因为它是最近推出的，随着支付技术的不断发展，Palantir有多种机会在各个行业实施该平台，并将重塑当前的支付格局。</blockquote></p><p> Smart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.</p><p><blockquote>智能合约是Palantir的另一个重要机会。智能合约是一组在数据流上验证和执行的协议，这意味着一旦合同履行，数据将表明合同得到满足，并确保责任方转移约定的资金。Palantir有很好的机会在促进智能合同中的数据方面发挥作用，同时消除与第三方网络和银行合作的成本。</blockquote></p><p> One of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的SPAC投资之一BlackSky部署Foundry并处理实时卫星图像以监控地球上发生的事件。例如，BlackSky可以检测货物是否已交付，因为BlackSky的卫星全天多次拍摄图像。BlackSky监控只能通过图像处理的数据和信息，并且是监控这些操作并将这些操作生成数据点的保管人，以便他们可以通知智能合约合同是否得到满足。这是Palantir的客户如何利用Foundry来处理与数字资产和新数字协议相关的信息的一个很好的例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府自2013年起实施Palantir的“金融科技”解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>IRS于2013年开始与Palantir合作，Palantir继续建立并扩大与IRS的合作伙伴关系，在过去12个月中已获得IRS近2000万美元的资助。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748221a3ed9fc319e2be6ebf40a8e95\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: USAspending.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USAspending.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>今年5月，美国国税局发起了“隐藏宝石行动”，这是一项针对不报告加密货币收益的纳税人的举措。美国国税局（IRS）的国家欺诈顾问卡罗琳·申克（Carolyn Schenck）最近就加密货币发表了以下言论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\" Another issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易不是匿名的，我们看到你了。”Palantir的AML旨在检测另一个围绕加密货币欺诈的问题，该问题与PayPal的反欺诈平台类似。美国国税局最近在其年度报告中透露，今年迄今为止，它从加密货币相关欺诈中查获了35亿美元。Palantir为IRS提供了破译犯罪金融计划并实时分析各种数据源的解决方案。过去，Palantir允许国税局跟踪资金流动或资产流动。例如，如果有人将资产转移到开曼群岛的一家银行，然后在美国提取现金并将其用于购买额外房产等的首付，Palantir的深度数据分析将连接这些孤立的信息，并将其呈现给国税局，以便他们可以相应地处理具体情况。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.</p><p><blockquote>根据Palantir最近推出的Foundry for Crypto，Palantir可能已经在利用其平台为美国政府提供真正的价值。随着越来越多的信息转移到网上，跟踪复杂的数字资产变得更加复杂，Palantir的技术在人工智能方面仍然领先趋势一步。Palantir不断为政府创建开箱即用的解决方案，然后过滤商业用例。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们使用洛杉矶估值史蒂文斯模型来提供更新的公允价值，然后讨论与Palantir进入加密货币领域相关的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续获得新的商业客户，并通过强劲的季度业绩展示其平台的价值。第三季度，Palantir的商业客户数量环比增长46%，达到200多家。以下是Palantir的一些值得注意的财务指标。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$1.43B in TTM revenue</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>TTM收入$1.43 B</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>77% gross profit margins</p><p><blockquote><li>77%毛利率</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$120 billion TAM</p><p><blockquote><li>1200亿美元TAM</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</b></blockquote></p><p> To determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了确定Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>假设：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1499608f487046f492724343ce6250\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad4b65a88b3612deb98a837e64a5193\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"912\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>根据保守估计，考虑到未来的稀释，Palantir目前的价值约为31美元，因此Palantir被严重低估。</blockquote></p><p> In order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我们确定Palantir今天是否值得投资，我们将以今天的价格预测Palantir未来10年的预期回报。为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数（35倍）。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛率，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7e1db2ce3e749cd8088652a7029424\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir预计在未来10年内将产生约20%的年化回报率，因此，现在是增加头寸或开始建仓的理想时机。Palantir预计将大幅超过我们15%的门槛利率，因此我将Palantir评级为20美元左右的强力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>There are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>鉴于加密货币是一项相对较新的技术，并且未来监管存在不确定性，因此存在不可预见的风险。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> Palantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临着来自Amazon（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）等大型现有科技公司以及Chainalysis等初创公司的竞争。Palantir需要提供在利用未来技术创新的数字环境中产生alpha的解决方案。Chainalysis是一家金融科技初创公司，在多个区块链上提供KYC和反洗钱自动交易监控，类似于Foundry for Crypto。Chainalysis今年夏天以42亿美元的估值筹集了1亿美元，业务遍及60多个国家。另一方面是亚马逊等大型科技巨头，该公司于2018年开始提供亚马逊托管区块链服务，这使得利用以太币等区块链变得容易。</blockquote></p><p> The intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.</p><p><blockquote>数字支付的交叉类似于一个巨大的机会，因为银行和信用卡网络已经大规模发展了令人难以置信的大型网络。这使得金融科技领域的创新时机已经成熟，而且竞争将越来越激烈，因为自2016年以来，排名前250位的金融科技独角兽已经筹集了超过730亿美元。Palantir将依靠开发下一波支付领域的人工智能解决方案，为政府部署这些解决方案来创建核心技术，然后为商业部门过滤解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir处于正在进行的数字化转型的最前沿，因为其平台是现代组织从许多信息源中生成见解的结缔组织。在支付和金融科技方面，Palantir有着深厚的渊源，可以追溯到PayPal的早期，因为Palantir自2010年代初以来一直瞄准大型金融机构。Palantir继续扩展其平台，将其深入的数据洞察应用于智能合约等去中心化金融应用程序中的信息。Palantir处于有利地位，可以利用其平台连接这些区块链应用程序的数据，并利用其人工智能专业知识，使其客户能够提供创新的金融科技解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> I've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年我一直看好Palantir，交易价格低于20美元，鉴于Palantir是一家世代公司，并且与PayPal的早期有着密切的联系，Palantir对长期投资者来说是一个有吸引力的价格。我对Palantir的强烈买入评级为20美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.</li> <li>Palantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.</li> <li>Palantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.</li> <li>In today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19fbe474b2b948c1dd476507722b776\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir最近推出了Foundry for Crypto，为金融的未来赋能。</li><li>Palantir现在有机会利用其平台的结缔组织来跟踪去中心化金融应用程序中的资金流。</li><li>Palantir自2013年以来一直与IRS合作，在Foundry发布之前，Gotham是为大型金融机构部署的。</li><li>在今天的文章中，我将重点介绍Palantir可以追溯到PayPal的根源以及Palantir在金融科技领域的机遇。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Olemedia/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir(PLTR)，大多数投资者都对其政府业务以及其在商业领域为建筑商铸造的机会感到兴奋。如今，Palantir约60%的业务来自政府，而另一部分来自商业部门。Palantir的平台以其人工智能(AI)和深度数据洞察而闻名，可为客户提供关键信息，帮助他们实现利润最大化。Palantir的解决方案围绕“任务驱动工程”构建，以集成来自孤立和非结构化数据集的信息。在本文中，我们将探讨Palantir的根源，这些根源可以追溯到支付行业和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal和Palantir联合创始人Peter Thiel于2004年联系了Palantir联合创始人Stephen Cohen，并告诉他他对Palantir的想法，以下是他的设想。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government. And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013 Five years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从PayPal反欺诈平台中获取一些想法，并尝试将它们概括为解决该国的反恐问题。我们将从直接卖给美国政府开始。同时，让我们来解决现有的通用企业信息管理平台。让我们帮助大企业使用硅谷的方法来理解他们的数据。”—Stephen Cohen，2013五年前，Palantir四分之一的业务来自金融领域—虽然Palantir与金融科技的联系表面上可能并不清楚，但该公司有很大的机会为金融科技应用程序部署其人工智能，特别是Foundry，无论是当前的银行还是区块链分析平台Elementus等金融科技公司。Palantir目前为美国国税局和当前的银行基础设施以及未来的创新支付技术（如加密货币和智能合约）提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deep Roots In Payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>深厚的支付根基</b></blockquote></p><p> Much of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的大部分“DNA”和文化都是从PayPal复制的。Palantir的核心技术也受到了PayPal的启发，特别是PayPal的反欺诈平台。Peter Thiel与Max Levchin共同创立了PayPal，后来与Palantir首任首席技术官Nathan Gettings共同创立了Palantir，后者是PayPal的一名工程师，在那里他与Levchin密切合作打击支付欺诈。这个PayPal反欺诈框架将继续为Palantir的第一个反恐举措提供基本构建模块。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir在政府内部部署类似于为大型金融机构部署的技术。金融机构必须克服的挑战与政府面临的挑战相似，因为有许多数据源和许多系统向金融服务部门和政府部门提供输入。Palantir使用深度数据分析来识别这些信息中的模式和趋势，以帮助客户管理风险并执行计划，从而更好地应对不断变化的复杂环境。</blockquote></p><p> In 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.</p><p><blockquote>据其S1报道，2016年，Palantir约25%的业务来自金融领域，因为Palantir部署了Gotham平台来调查大型机构的欺诈行为。Palantir与许多银行合作，取代了已有30多年历史的遗留技术。例如，瑞士信贷自2013年以来一直使用Palantir，利用其运营中一百多个系统的数据来分析风险和检测欺诈行为。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir寻求成为整个行业的中央操作系统，而不仅仅是单一客户，Palantir看到了在金融服务行业建立类似于美国政府和航空业的全行业合作伙伴关系的机会。Palantir不断赢得政府合同，而Palantir于2017年与空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)合作推出SkyWise，目前与100多家航空公司合作。</blockquote></p><p> Significant Opportunity At Hand</p><p><blockquote>手头的重大机遇</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.</p><p><blockquote>11月23日，Palantir推出了Foundry for Crypto，它将利用Foundry定义的数据集成来自动构建数据管道，并将无组织的数据转换为透明的中枢。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto将使Web3初创公司能够利用金融机构用来打击犯罪的技术。随着当前数字化转型的进行以及加密货币和区块链技术的兴起，Palantir利用其数据专业知识为下一代财务软件提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a3fb5ad32eff1f464c225cc4b1f1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"621\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Offerings | Crypto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：产品|Crypto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Palantir是链不可知的，这意味着Palantir可以与多个区块链一起工作。Palantir集成了交易数据和智能合约数据，这将使Palantir能够利用其人工智能和数据分析的核心能力来提供KYC（了解您的客户）见解。例如，如果有人要使用非托管钱包中的加密货币进行交易，那么从该钱包中破译KYC信息通常是一个挑战，因为区块链本身是加密和去中心化的。Palantir跟踪非托管钱包中的资产，并跟踪资产的转移地点。这使得Palantir能够找到资产最初转移的交易所，然后Palantir可以跟踪购买资产的加密货币交易所的客户数据，例如Coinbase。</blockquote></p><p> The example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.</p><p><blockquote>上面的例子强调了Palantir如何深入挖掘并从区块链中抓取数据来了解特定个人。这对于验证安全交易大有帮助，因为Palantir会根据交易的位置和特定属性识别区块链上的恶意交易。希望接受加密货币的公司需要安全的解决方案，同时他们也希望收集客户周围的见解来推动他们的业务。BNPL公司，例如由Max Levchin和Nathan Gettings创立的Affirm，使用高级风险建模（也称为人工智能）为消费者提供更公平的信用评估，因为BNPL公司可以访问来自商家和消费者的重要数据。Palantir可以利用其人工智能和数据洞察来帮助客户更好地了解他们的客户，从而提供有针对性的营销活动或帮助他们发现减少开支的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto仍处于早期采用阶段，因为它是最近推出的，随着支付技术的不断发展，Palantir有多种机会在各个行业实施该平台，并将重塑当前的支付格局。</blockquote></p><p> Smart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.</p><p><blockquote>智能合约是Palantir的另一个重要机会。智能合约是一组在数据流上验证和执行的协议，这意味着一旦合同履行，数据将表明合同得到满足，并确保责任方转移约定的资金。Palantir有很好的机会在促进智能合同中的数据方面发挥作用，同时消除与第三方网络和银行合作的成本。</blockquote></p><p> One of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的SPAC投资之一BlackSky部署Foundry并处理实时卫星图像以监控地球上发生的事件。例如，BlackSky可以检测货物是否已交付，因为BlackSky的卫星全天多次拍摄图像。BlackSky监控只能通过图像处理的数据和信息，并且是监控这些操作并将这些操作生成数据点的保管人，以便他们可以通知智能合约合同是否得到满足。这是Palantir的客户如何利用Foundry来处理与数字资产和新数字协议相关的信息的一个很好的例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府自2013年起实施Palantir的“金融科技”解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>IRS于2013年开始与Palantir合作，Palantir继续建立并扩大与IRS的合作伙伴关系，在过去12个月中已获得IRS近2000万美元的资助。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748221a3ed9fc319e2be6ebf40a8e95\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: USAspending.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USAspending.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>今年5月，美国国税局发起了“隐藏宝石行动”，这是一项针对不报告加密货币收益的纳税人的举措。美国国税局（IRS）的国家欺诈顾问卡罗琳·申克（Carolyn Schenck）最近就加密货币发表了以下言论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\" Another issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易不是匿名的，我们看到你了。”Palantir的AML旨在检测另一个围绕加密货币欺诈的问题，该问题与PayPal的反欺诈平台类似。美国国税局最近在其年度报告中透露，今年迄今为止，它从加密货币相关欺诈中查获了35亿美元。Palantir为IRS提供了破译犯罪金融计划并实时分析各种数据源的解决方案。过去，Palantir允许国税局跟踪资金流动或资产流动。例如，如果有人将资产转移到开曼群岛的一家银行，然后在美国提取现金并将其用于购买额外房产等的首付，Palantir的深度数据分析将连接这些孤立的信息，并将其呈现给国税局，以便他们可以相应地处理具体情况。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.</p><p><blockquote>根据Palantir最近推出的Foundry for Crypto，Palantir可能已经在利用其平台为美国政府提供真正的价值。随着越来越多的信息转移到网上，跟踪复杂的数字资产变得更加复杂，Palantir的技术在人工智能方面仍然领先趋势一步。Palantir不断为政府创建开箱即用的解决方案，然后过滤商业用例。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们使用洛杉矶估值史蒂文斯模型来提供更新的公允价值，然后讨论与Palantir进入加密货币领域相关的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续获得新的商业客户，并通过强劲的季度业绩展示其平台的价值。第三季度，Palantir的商业客户数量环比增长46%，达到200多家。以下是Palantir的一些值得注意的财务指标。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$1.43B in TTM revenue</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>TTM收入$1.43 B</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>77% gross profit margins</p><p><blockquote><li>77%毛利率</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$120 billion TAM</p><p><blockquote><li>1200亿美元TAM</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</b></blockquote></p><p> To determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了确定Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>假设：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1499608f487046f492724343ce6250\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad4b65a88b3612deb98a837e64a5193\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"912\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>根据保守估计，考虑到未来的稀释，Palantir目前的价值约为31美元，因此Palantir被严重低估。</blockquote></p><p> In order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我们确定Palantir今天是否值得投资，我们将以今天的价格预测Palantir未来10年的预期回报。为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数（35倍）。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛率，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7e1db2ce3e749cd8088652a7029424\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir预计在未来10年内将产生约20%的年化回报率，因此，现在是增加头寸或开始建仓的理想时机。Palantir预计将大幅超过我们15%的门槛利率，因此我将Palantir评级为20美元左右的强力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>There are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>鉴于加密货币是一项相对较新的技术，并且未来监管存在不确定性，因此存在不可预见的风险。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> Palantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临着来自Amazon（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）等大型现有科技公司以及Chainalysis等初创公司的竞争。Palantir需要提供在利用未来技术创新的数字环境中产生alpha的解决方案。Chainalysis是一家金融科技初创公司，在多个区块链上提供KYC和反洗钱自动交易监控，类似于Foundry for Crypto。Chainalysis今年夏天以42亿美元的估值筹集了1亿美元，业务遍及60多个国家。另一方面是亚马逊等大型科技巨头，该公司于2018年开始提供亚马逊托管区块链服务，这使得利用以太币等区块链变得容易。</blockquote></p><p> The intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.</p><p><blockquote>数字支付的交叉类似于一个巨大的机会，因为银行和信用卡网络已经大规模发展了令人难以置信的大型网络。这使得金融科技领域的创新时机已经成熟，而且竞争将越来越激烈，因为自2016年以来，排名前250位的金融科技独角兽已经筹集了超过730亿美元。Palantir将依靠开发下一波支付领域的人工智能解决方案，为政府部署这些解决方案来创建核心技术，然后为商业部门过滤解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir处于正在进行的数字化转型的最前沿，因为其平台是现代组织从许多信息源中生成见解的结缔组织。在支付和金融科技方面，Palantir有着深厚的渊源，可以追溯到PayPal的早期，因为Palantir自2010年代初以来一直瞄准大型金融机构。Palantir继续扩展其平台，将其深入的数据洞察应用于智能合约等去中心化金融应用程序中的信息。Palantir处于有利地位，可以利用其平台连接这些区块链应用程序的数据，并利用其人工智能专业知识，使其客户能够提供创新的金融科技解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> I've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年我一直看好Palantir，交易价格低于20美元，鉴于Palantir是一家世代公司，并且与PayPal的早期有着密切的联系，Palantir对长期投资者来说是一个有吸引力的价格。我对Palantir的强烈买入评级为20美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474525-palantir-stock-foundry-for-crypto-fintech-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474525-palantir-stock-foundry-for-crypto-fintech-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163753909","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.\nPalantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.\nPalantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.\nIn today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.\n\nOlemedia/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nWhen it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.\nPayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.\n\n Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government.\n\n\n And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013\n\nFive years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.\nDeep Roots In Payments\nMuch of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.\nPalantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.\nIn 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.\nPalantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.\nSignificant Opportunity At Hand\nOn November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.\nFoundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.\nSource: Offerings | Crypto\nAs indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.\nThe example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.\nFoundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.\nSmart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.\nOne of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.\nThe Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013\nThe IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.\nSource: USAspending.gov\nIn May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.\n\n These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\"\n\nAnother issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.\nBased on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.\nNow, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.\nValuation\nPalantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.\n\n$1.43B in TTM revenue\n77% gross profit margins\n$120 billion TAM\n\nPalantir's Fair Value And Expected Return\nTo determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nAssumptions:\n\nResults:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nBased on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.\nIn order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nPalantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.\nRisks\n\nThere are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.\n\nPalantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.\nThe intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.\nConclusion\nPalantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.\nI've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608719720,"gmtCreate":1638789183749,"gmtModify":1638789185420,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608719720","repostId":"2188243825","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699897633,"gmtCreate":1639770671279,"gmtModify":1639777821085,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hello how is every doing","listText":"hello how is every doing","text":"hello how is every doing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699897633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
