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快快长大
2020-07-10
此言差矣!你的预测基于历史数据的理论推断,为何不去了解一下各工厂的实际产能扩张计划?投资科技公司二级市场,也要有投资一级市场的嗅觉:看准人。推荐你读一下马斯克的自传
@FlowingCash:减仓或清仓和特斯拉相关的股票
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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二季度交付数据。更新之后,从我的模型里发现,特斯拉现在的估值偏离模型太多了。具体估值模型可以看这一篇文章《特斯拉估值模型》,这里说一下我更新的数据。首先是累计交付(过去四个季度累计)和增速,特斯拉累计交付已经连续四个季度同比增速下降。单季度来看,二季度交付90,650辆车,同比下跌4.9%。这是我记录以来,首次单季度交付同比负增长。为了预测未来累计交付,我做了回归方程,更新二季度数据之后,累计交付开始下穿模型(虚线为预测的模型),说明实际累计交付比模型计算的要少。当然,二季度美国开始隔离,这也在很大程度影响交付量。之前我也创造了新的估值指标——市值/累计交付,这个指标的内在逻辑是每次交付给特斯拉创造的价值。在逻辑上,这个指标应该是逐渐变低的。因为一开始公司的想象力大,市场给到每次交付更多价值。随着交付量不断提高,市场对公司的想象力开始兑现,因此每次交付的价值就变低。为了预测市值/累计交付这个指标未来的变化,我也做了一个回归方程,之前的数据基本围绕在这个模型波动(这是当然的,因为用历史数据做的嘛)。更新今年一季度数据的时候,也没有偏离这个模型太多。但是更新二季度数据之后,远远偏离模型。偏离这么多只有两种情况,我的模型错了,或者要回归方程。虽然我清仓了特斯拉,不过持仓依然有不少仓位和特斯拉相关的。如果我的模型错了,对这些仓位没有影响,但是如果要回归方程,特斯拉股价下跌,也必然会对相关的股票造成影响,我的仓位也会造成不小的影响。因此清仓了<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">$赣锋锂业(002460)$</a> ,减持了","text":"最近比较忙,没有及时更新$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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,减持了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8958c8602d5a99d488f005793d6d72c8","width":"688","height":"403"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b55ad778abba0e5958c059abf0de52f","width":"688","height":"465"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbdbe940178a7266ba51b7ae0815b203","width":"688","height":"465"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949804788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":943010910,"gmtCreate":1594337744230,"gmtModify":1704205236687,"author":{"id":"3554847346833736","authorId":"3554847346833736","name":"快快长大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554847346833736","idStr":"3554847346833736"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"此言差矣!你的预测基于历史数据的理论推断,为何不去了解一下各工厂的实际产能扩张计划?投资科技公司二级市场,也要有投资一级市场的嗅觉:看准人。推荐你读一下马斯克的自传","listText":"此言差矣!你的预测基于历史数据的理论推断,为何不去了解一下各工厂的实际产能扩张计划?投资科技公司二级市场,也要有投资一级市场的嗅觉:看准人。推荐你读一下马斯克的自传","text":"此言差矣!你的预测基于历史数据的理论推断,为何不去了解一下各工厂的实际产能扩张计划?投资科技公司二级市场,也要有投资一级市场的嗅觉:看准人。推荐你读一下马斯克的自传","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943010910","repostId":"949804788","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":949804788,"gmtCreate":1594205460144,"gmtModify":1704204389389,"author":{"id":"3516684144781058","authorId":"3516684144781058","name":"FlowingCash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67bf943fe99e7187f6072ef83d10041a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3516684144781058","idStr":"3516684144781058"},"themes":[],"title":"减仓或清仓和特斯拉相关的股票","htmlText":"最近比较忙,没有及时更新<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 二季度交付数据。更新之后,从我的模型里发现,特斯拉现在的估值偏离模型太多了。具体估值模型可以看这一篇文章《特斯拉估值模型》,这里说一下我更新的数据。首先是累计交付(过去四个季度累计)和增速,特斯拉累计交付已经连续四个季度同比增速下降。单季度来看,二季度交付90,650辆车,同比下跌4.9%。这是我记录以来,首次单季度交付同比负增长。为了预测未来累计交付,我做了回归方程,更新二季度数据之后,累计交付开始下穿模型(虚线为预测的模型),说明实际累计交付比模型计算的要少。当然,二季度美国开始隔离,这也在很大程度影响交付量。之前我也创造了新的估值指标——市值/累计交付,这个指标的内在逻辑是每次交付给特斯拉创造的价值。在逻辑上,这个指标应该是逐渐变低的。因为一开始公司的想象力大,市场给到每次交付更多价值。随着交付量不断提高,市场对公司的想象力开始兑现,因此每次交付的价值就变低。为了预测市值/累计交付这个指标未来的变化,我也做了一个回归方程,之前的数据基本围绕在这个模型波动(这是当然的,因为用历史数据做的嘛)。更新今年一季度数据的时候,也没有偏离这个模型太多。但是更新二季度数据之后,远远偏离模型。偏离这么多只有两种情况,我的模型错了,或者要回归方程。虽然我清仓了特斯拉,不过持仓依然有不少仓位和特斯拉相关的。如果我的模型错了,对这些仓位没有影响,但是如果要回归方程,特斯拉股价下跌,也必然会对相关的股票造成影响,我的仓位也会造成不小的影响。因此清仓了<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">$赣锋锂业(002460)$</a> ,减持了","listText":"最近比较忙,没有及时更新<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 二季度交付数据。更新之后,从我的模型里发现,特斯拉现在的估值偏离模型太多了。具体估值模型可以看这一篇文章《特斯拉估值模型》,这里说一下我更新的数据。首先是累计交付(过去四个季度累计)和增速,特斯拉累计交付已经连续四个季度同比增速下降。单季度来看,二季度交付90,650辆车,同比下跌4.9%。这是我记录以来,首次单季度交付同比负增长。为了预测未来累计交付,我做了回归方程,更新二季度数据之后,累计交付开始下穿模型(虚线为预测的模型),说明实际累计交付比模型计算的要少。当然,二季度美国开始隔离,这也在很大程度影响交付量。之前我也创造了新的估值指标——市值/累计交付,这个指标的内在逻辑是每次交付给特斯拉创造的价值。在逻辑上,这个指标应该是逐渐变低的。因为一开始公司的想象力大,市场给到每次交付更多价值。随着交付量不断提高,市场对公司的想象力开始兑现,因此每次交付的价值就变低。为了预测市值/累计交付这个指标未来的变化,我也做了一个回归方程,之前的数据基本围绕在这个模型波动(这是当然的,因为用历史数据做的嘛)。更新今年一季度数据的时候,也没有偏离这个模型太多。但是更新二季度数据之后,远远偏离模型。偏离这么多只有两种情况,我的模型错了,或者要回归方程。虽然我清仓了特斯拉,不过持仓依然有不少仓位和特斯拉相关的。如果我的模型错了,对这些仓位没有影响,但是如果要回归方程,特斯拉股价下跌,也必然会对相关的股票造成影响,我的仓位也会造成不小的影响。因此清仓了<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">$赣锋锂业(002460)$</a> ,减持了","text":"最近比较忙,没有及时更新$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 二季度交付数据。更新之后,从我的模型里发现,特斯拉现在的估值偏离模型太多了。具体估值模型可以看这一篇文章《特斯拉估值模型》,这里说一下我更新的数据。首先是累计交付(过去四个季度累计)和增速,特斯拉累计交付已经连续四个季度同比增速下降。单季度来看,二季度交付90,650辆车,同比下跌4.9%。这是我记录以来,首次单季度交付同比负增长。为了预测未来累计交付,我做了回归方程,更新二季度数据之后,累计交付开始下穿模型(虚线为预测的模型),说明实际累计交付比模型计算的要少。当然,二季度美国开始隔离,这也在很大程度影响交付量。之前我也创造了新的估值指标——市值/累计交付,这个指标的内在逻辑是每次交付给特斯拉创造的价值。在逻辑上,这个指标应该是逐渐变低的。因为一开始公司的想象力大,市场给到每次交付更多价值。随着交付量不断提高,市场对公司的想象力开始兑现,因此每次交付的价值就变低。为了预测市值/累计交付这个指标未来的变化,我也做了一个回归方程,之前的数据基本围绕在这个模型波动(这是当然的,因为用历史数据做的嘛)。更新今年一季度数据的时候,也没有偏离这个模型太多。但是更新二季度数据之后,远远偏离模型。偏离这么多只有两种情况,我的模型错了,或者要回归方程。虽然我清仓了特斯拉,不过持仓依然有不少仓位和特斯拉相关的。如果我的模型错了,对这些仓位没有影响,但是如果要回归方程,特斯拉股价下跌,也必然会对相关的股票造成影响,我的仓位也会造成不小的影响。因此清仓了$赣锋锂业(002460)$ ,减持了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8958c8602d5a99d488f005793d6d72c8","width":"688","height":"403"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b55ad778abba0e5958c059abf0de52f","width":"688","height":"465"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbdbe940178a7266ba51b7ae0815b203","width":"688","height":"465"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949804788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}