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2021-06-18

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ no. 1 in A. I.

1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote>

2022-01-17

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@gugu:2021年投资总结：正确的抄底方式

2021-11-27

[Surprised]

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2021-07-25

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ future is there....

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-11

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ long term stock

Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value<blockquote>Palantir：稀释调整值</blockquote>

2021-06-07

Crazy$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$

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2021-05-14

New trend

@时代财富观察:通胀、暴跌、利率…极端情绪指标回顾，新兴市场该抄底吗？

2021-03-20

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$$Qualcomm(QCOM)$[财迷] [财迷]

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2021-03-11

Roblox

Roblox spikes 44% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Roblox 首日交易飙升 44%</blockquote>

2021-02-26

Opportunity

Why NVIDIA Shares Stumbled, After an Impressive Earnings Report<blockquote>为什么英伟达股价在令人印象深刻的收益报告后下跌</blockquote>

2021-02-17

Good

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2021-02-17

QS!

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2021-02-15

Undervalued

Is Nvidia Set for a Massive Breakout?<blockquote>英伟达是否即将迎来大规模突破？</blockquote>

2021-02-15

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-02-08

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@财报研究社pro:Clubhouse引爆音频社交，荔枝加持Tiya有望扭转估值偏见？

2021-02-04

Good

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2021-01-27

Good

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2021-01-25

Just started

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2021-01-25

Just started...

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2021-01-24

Buy or sell??

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去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;no. 1 in A. I.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;no. 1 in A. I.&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ no. 1 in A. I.","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168431202","repostId":"1197160756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197160756","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623980251,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197160756?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197160756","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The graphics specialist enjoys a huge advantage over its smaller rival in an important market.","content":"<p><b>NVIDIA</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:AMD)&nbsp;to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided&nbsp;by Jon Peddie Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）尽管做出了最大努力，但仍在独立图形处理单元 (GPU) 市场占据主导地位<b>先进微器件</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）将在这个利润丰厚的领域获得份额。根据 Jon Peddie Research 提供的最新市场份额数据，NVIDIA 没有表现出失去对显卡市场控制的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么这对 NVIDIA 来说是个好兆头，并使其成为比主要竞争对手 AMD 更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94007897775e469423cc8a3d1e55440d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA&nbsp;finished 2020 with&nbsp;82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年结束时控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余部分。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched the&nbsp;RTX 30 series cards&nbsp;toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were&nbsp;making a nice dent&nbsp;in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出RTX 30系列显卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在RTX 30系列卡到来之前，AMD正处于复兴模式——一年前，它的Navi GPU在英伟达的显卡霸主地位上取得了良好的进展。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余的份额。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出TX 30系列卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在 RTX 30 系列显卡问世之前，AMD 正处于复兴模式——其 Navi GPU 正在与一年前 NVIDIA 显卡霸主地位相媲美。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a&nbsp;jump in the average selling prices&nbsp;(ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，独立 GPU 出货量同比增长 24.4%。由于巨大需求和供应短缺导致平均销售价格 (ASP) 飙升，该市场在第一季度创造了 125 亿美元的收入，比去年同期增长了 370%。英伟达巨大的市场份额意味着它从这次飙升中获益匪浅，这反映在其第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled&nbsp;year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>2022 财年第一季度，英伟达的游戏收入同比增长一倍多，达到 27.6 亿美元。AMD 的计算和图形部门（还包括 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器的销售）在第一季度以相对较慢的速度同比增长 46%，达到 21 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，到 2025 年，独立 GPU 市场价值可能达到 540 亿美元，而去年为 236 亿美元。英伟达的主导地位应该使其能够在未来占据很大一部分份额，特别是考虑到其加强自身地位的举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD's resistance may not be enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD的阻力可能还不够</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.</p><p><blockquote>AMD一直在试图与英伟达抗衡，上季度确实取得了一些进展，市场份额环比增长了一个百分点。然而，AMD现在正在寻求通过一项新技术FidelityFX超级分辨率（FSR）来提升其游戏。这将与英伟达的深度学习超级采样（DLSS）图像放大技术竞争，该技术有助于游戏看起来更好，运行更流畅。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的内部测试声称，其新技术可以帮助游戏在超高质量设置下以59%的帧速率运行。该芯片制造商还声称，使用性能设置，FSR可以将某些游戏的游戏性能提高2.5倍。此外，AMD表示，由于其开源性质，FSR支持广泛的硬件，包括100多个处理器和显卡。</blockquote></p><p> FSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second&nbsp;generation.</p><p><blockquote>FSR将于6月22日推出，它可能会给AMD在GPU市场带来一个很好的推动。然而，只有时间才能证明这项新技术是否会转化为 AMD 的销售，因为其竞争对手的 DLSS 技术已经进入第二代。</blockquote></p><p> However, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.</p><p><blockquote>然而，值得注意的是，英伟达正试图通过新的发布来覆盖尽可能多的GPU市场。该公司最近发布了RTX 3080 Ti和RTX 3070 Ti GPU，售价分别为1199美元和599美元。NVIDIA为旧显卡的用户提供了升级这些显卡的充分理由。它声称RTX 3080 Ti的速度是旧的GTX 1080 Ti的两倍，而RTX 3070 Ti的性能是RTX 2070 Super的1.5倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NVIDIA is also&nbsp;stepping up its game&nbsp;in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>随着入门级显卡的推出，英伟达也在加强其在笔记本电脑市场的博弈。该公司现在提供140多种由RTX 30卡驱动的笔记本电脑型号，价格范围广泛。这使得英伟达在快速增长的游戏笔记本电脑市场占据了稳固的地位，预计到2027年，该市场的收入将达到156亿美元，而2019年为90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have&nbsp;yet to upgrade&nbsp;to its latest cards.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，英伟达的游戏业务可以在未来很长一段时间内保持其惊人的增长水平，特别是考虑到大量游戏玩家尚未升级到其最新显卡。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a&nbsp;top growth stock&nbsp;to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMD游戏业务的增长远不及英伟达，鉴于后者在这一领域的霸主地位，这种情况不太可能改变。这就是为什么希望利用独立显卡蓬勃发展的市场并将一只顶级增长股票添加到其投资组合中的投资者应该选择 NVIDIA。游戏是其最大的收入来源，这项业务可能会在很长一段时间内保持火爆。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>NVIDIA</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:AMD)&nbsp;to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided&nbsp;by Jon Peddie Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）尽管做出了最大努力，但仍在独立图形处理单元 (GPU) 市场占据主导地位<b>先进微器件</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）将在这个利润丰厚的领域获得份额。根据 Jon Peddie Research 提供的最新市场份额数据，NVIDIA 没有表现出失去对显卡市场控制的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么这对 NVIDIA 来说是个好兆头，并使其成为比主要竞争对手 AMD 更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94007897775e469423cc8a3d1e55440d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA&nbsp;finished 2020 with&nbsp;82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年结束时控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余部分。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched the&nbsp;RTX 30 series cards&nbsp;toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were&nbsp;making a nice dent&nbsp;in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出RTX 30系列显卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在RTX 30系列卡到来之前，AMD正处于复兴模式——一年前，它的Navi GPU在英伟达的显卡霸主地位上取得了良好的进展。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余的份额。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出TX 30系列卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在 RTX 30 系列显卡问世之前，AMD 正处于复兴模式——其 Navi GPU 正在与一年前 NVIDIA 显卡霸主地位相媲美。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a&nbsp;jump in the average selling prices&nbsp;(ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，独立 GPU 出货量同比增长 24.4%。由于巨大需求和供应短缺导致平均销售价格 (ASP) 飙升，该市场在第一季度创造了 125 亿美元的收入，比去年同期增长了 370%。英伟达巨大的市场份额意味着它从这次飙升中获益匪浅，这反映在其第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled&nbsp;year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>2022 财年第一季度，英伟达的游戏收入同比增长一倍多，达到 27.6 亿美元。AMD 的计算和图形部门（还包括 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器的销售）在第一季度以相对较慢的速度同比增长 46%，达到 21 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，到 2025 年，独立 GPU 市场价值可能达到 540 亿美元，而去年为 236 亿美元。英伟达的主导地位应该使其能够在未来占据很大一部分份额，特别是考虑到其加强自身地位的举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD's resistance may not be enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD的阻力可能还不够</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.</p><p><blockquote>AMD一直在试图与英伟达抗衡，上季度确实取得了一些进展，市场份额环比增长了一个百分点。然而，AMD现在正在寻求通过一项新技术FidelityFX超级分辨率（FSR）来提升其游戏。这将与英伟达的深度学习超级采样（DLSS）图像放大技术竞争，该技术有助于游戏看起来更好，运行更流畅。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的内部测试声称，其新技术可以帮助游戏在超高质量设置下以59%的帧速率运行。该芯片制造商还声称，使用性能设置，FSR可以将某些游戏的游戏性能提高2.5倍。此外，AMD表示，由于其开源性质，FSR支持广泛的硬件，包括100多个处理器和显卡。</blockquote></p><p> FSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second&nbsp;generation.</p><p><blockquote>FSR将于6月22日推出，它可能会给AMD在GPU市场带来一个很好的推动。然而，只有时间才能证明这项新技术是否会转化为 AMD 的销售，因为其竞争对手的 DLSS 技术已经进入第二代。</blockquote></p><p> However, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.</p><p><blockquote>然而，值得注意的是，英伟达正试图通过新的发布来覆盖尽可能多的GPU市场。该公司最近发布了RTX 3080 Ti和RTX 3070 Ti GPU，售价分别为1199美元和599美元。NVIDIA为旧显卡的用户提供了升级这些显卡的充分理由。它声称RTX 3080 Ti的速度是旧的GTX 1080 Ti的两倍，而RTX 3070 Ti的性能是RTX 2070 Super的1.5倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NVIDIA is also&nbsp;stepping up its game&nbsp;in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>随着入门级显卡的推出，英伟达也在加强其在笔记本电脑市场的博弈。该公司现在提供140多种由RTX 30卡驱动的笔记本电脑型号，价格范围广泛。这使得英伟达在快速增长的游戏笔记本电脑市场占据了稳固的地位，预计到2027年，该市场的收入将达到156亿美元，而2019年为90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have&nbsp;yet to upgrade&nbsp;to its latest cards.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，英伟达的游戏业务可以在未来很长一段时间内保持其惊人的增长水平，特别是考虑到大量游戏玩家尚未升级到其最新显卡。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a&nbsp;top growth stock&nbsp;to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMD游戏业务的增长远不及英伟达，鉴于后者在这一领域的霸主地位，这种情况不太可能改变。这就是为什么希望利用独立显卡蓬勃发展的市场并将一只顶级增长股票添加到其投资组合中的投资者应该选择 NVIDIA。游戏是其最大的收入来源，这项业务可能会在很长一段时间内保持火爆。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-big-reason-to-dump-amd-and-buy-nvidia/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-big-reason-to-dump-amd-and-buy-nvidia/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197160756","content_text":"NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided by Jon Peddie Research.\nLet's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES\nNVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again\nNVIDIA finished 2020 with 82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.\nAMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been losing ground to NVIDIA since the latter launched the RTX 30 series cards toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were making a nice dent in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.\nNVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again\nNVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.\nAMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been losing ground to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.\nJon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a jump in the average selling prices (ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.\nNVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.\nJon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.\nAMD's resistance may not be enough\nAMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.\nAMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.\nFSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second generation.\nHowever, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.\nNVIDIA is also stepping up its game in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.\nAll of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have yet to upgrade to its latest cards.\nMeanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a top growth stock to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":697887410,"gmtCreate":1642404136006,"gmtModify":1642404136161,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697887410","repostId":"694655844","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":694655844,"gmtCreate":1641968172437,"gmtModify":1641976523045,"author":{"id":"387611620380","authorId":"387611620380","name":"gugu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1449509381.png","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"387611620380","authorIdStr":"387611620380"},"themes":[],"title":"2021年投资总结：正确的抄底方式","htmlText":"2021年是我投资的第5个年头，老虎账户盈利-0.23%，5年年化收益28%。每次我的年度收益达到60%之后，第二年的收益就会比较惨淡。这现象也容易理解，股价涨幅主要由企业的盈利增速贡献，另外来自公司估值的变化。大多数个股，二者叠加勉强支撑一年60%的涨幅，第二年的股价犹如强弩之末。2021年1月底，美国十年期国债收益率从1.071%开始急剧上升，到了3月飙升至1.744%。资本开始从各个风险度较高的板块撤离，中概差不多在2月10日附近的高点跌落；实际上，这波也影响到A股，外资占比较高的消费和医药板块，过年后的第一周开启狂跌模式。纳斯达克指数3周内回撤8.5%，标普2周内回撤3%，第三周止跌上扬。在这之后的9个月，标普和纳指只在9月和11月的个别周中有过几次回撤，整体上二者一路上扬，全年标普和纳指分别收涨27%和26.8%。我的持仓，在四季度中概仓位已达40%，特别是腾讯，自2020年末持有至2021年底，浮亏3%。靠着“已实现损益”的交易，全年账户收益-0.23%，跑输2大指数。目前美股和A股持仓：A股：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601888\">$中国中免(601888)$</a>12.8%，陕西煤业8.8%，东财3.5%美股：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 7.7%，meta11%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>13.5%中概：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>31.5%，","listText":"2021年是我投资的第5个年头，老虎账户盈利-0.23%，5年年化收益28%。每次我的年度收益达到60%之后，第二年的收益就会比较惨淡。这现象也容易理解，股价涨幅主要由企业的盈利增速贡献，另外来自公司估值的变化。大多数个股，二者叠加勉强支撑一年60%的涨幅，第二年的股价犹如强弩之末。2021年1月底，美国十年期国债收益率从1.071%开始急剧上升，到了3月飙升至1.744%。资本开始从各个风险度较高的板块撤离，中概差不多在2月10日附近的高点跌落；实际上，这波也影响到A股，外资占比较高的消费和医药板块，过年后的第一周开启狂跌模式。纳斯达克指数3周内回撤8.5%，标普2周内回撤3%，第三周止跌上扬。在这之后的9个月，标普和纳指只在9月和11月的个别周中有过几次回撤，整体上二者一路上扬，全年标普和纳指分别收涨27%和26.8%。我的持仓，在四季度中概仓位已达40%，特别是腾讯，自2020年末持有至2021年底，浮亏3%。靠着“已实现损益”的交易，全年账户收益-0.23%，跑输2大指数。目前美股和A股持仓：A股：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601888\">$中国中免(601888)$</a>12.8%，陕西煤业8.8%，东财3.5%美股：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 7.7%，meta11%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>13.5%中概：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>31.5%，","text":"2021年是我投资的第5个年头，老虎账户盈利-0.23%，5年年化收益28%。每次我的年度收益达到60%之后，第二年的收益就会比较惨淡。这现象也容易理解，股价涨幅主要由企业的盈利增速贡献，另外来自公司估值的变化。大多数个股，二者叠加勉强支撑一年60%的涨幅，第二年的股价犹如强弩之末。2021年1月底，美国十年期国债收益率从1.071%开始急剧上升，到了3月飙升至1.744%。资本开始从各个风险度较高的板块撤离，中概差不多在2月10日附近的高点跌落；实际上，这波也影响到A股，外资占比较高的消费和医药板块，过年后的第一周开启狂跌模式。纳斯达克指数3周内回撤8.5%，标普2周内回撤3%，第三周止跌上扬。在这之后的9个月，标普和纳指只在9月和11月的个别周中有过几次回撤，整体上二者一路上扬，全年标普和纳指分别收涨27%和26.8%。我的持仓，在四季度中概仓位已达40%，特别是腾讯，自2020年末持有至2021年底，浮亏3%。靠着“已实现损益”的交易，全年账户收益-0.23%，跑输2大指数。目前美股和A股持仓：A股：$中国中免(601888)$12.8%，陕西煤业8.8%，东财3.5%美股：$苹果(AAPL)$ 7.7%，meta11%，$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$13.5%中概：$腾讯控股(00700)$31.5%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6539fb81b6502b94bfd9b52b063cf","width":"572","height":"212"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694655844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877727711,"gmtCreate":1637988276368,"gmtModify":1637988276428,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877727711","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177310200,"gmtCreate":1627180142100,"gmtModify":1631891761986,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;future is there....&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;future is there....&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ future is there....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177310200","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181549505,"gmtCreate":1623403607307,"gmtModify":1631891761992,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;long term stock&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;long term stock&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ long term stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181549505","repostId":"1113838701","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113838701","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623403425,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113838701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value<blockquote>Palantir：稀释调整值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113838701","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.It has a powerful A.I.  technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.Founded in 2003, Palantir  started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.</li>  <li>It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.</li>  <li>I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.</li> </ul> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。</li><li>它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。</li><li>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元。</li></ul><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 成立于 2003 年，开始为情报界构建软件平台，后来扩展到商业领域。为此，已经开发了两个主要的软件平台，Palantir Gotham和Palantir Foundry。两者都充当中央操作系统，使客户能够集成他们的数据和操作。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Gotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).</li>  <li>Foundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.</li>  <li>Apollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.</li> </ol> The company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>哥谭是一个主要为国防和情报机构的分析师构建的平台。Gotham使用户能够识别隐藏在数据集深处的模式，从信号情报来源到机密线人的报告。Gotham平台也可供商业客户使用（例如，金融服务行业在欺诈调查中使用）。</li><li>Foundry是组织（例如空中客车公司（OTCPK：EADSF））用来管理复杂项目中涉及的大量数据的平台。它通过为组织的数据创建一个中央操作系统来改变组织的运营方式。个人用户可以在一个地方集成和分析他们需要的数据。用户实验和测试新想法的速度是该软件坚持下去的原因。</li><li>Apollo是一款交付软件，为Foundry和Gotham平台提供支持，并使它们能够在任何环境中运行。Apollo的目标是在不中断运营的情况下，将最新的功能提供到客户手中。</li></ol>该公司在全球开展业务，尤其是在美国、英国、法国和世界其他地区。下面我显示了按细分市场和地理位置划分的收入明细。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d03eb66b96b4d77da5936226da87d10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).</p><p><blockquote>使用过去 12 个月的数据，我们可以看到政府部门占 Palantir 总收入的 58%（2018 年为 42%），而商业部门占 48%（2018 年为 57%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"</p><p><blockquote>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元（当前价格为每股 24.38 美元）。众所周知，贴现现金流模型是评估公司公允价值的宝贵工具，然而，为了能够实施它，我们需要做出很多假设。我们必须做出的假设之一是关于公司未来的增长。但我们如何评估公司未来的增长呢？我们有不同的方法来实现这一点，但其中任何一种都是“唯一的”。</blockquote></p><p> Usually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.</p><p><blockquote>通常，我们要采取的第一步是评估公司是否拥有可持续的经济护城河。可持续的经济护城河是区分领导者和落后者的关键，它告诉我们应该对股票要求什么样的安全边际。没有经济护城河意味着更高的安全边际。评估一家公司是否有一种不同的方法并不是一件容易的事情。在这种情况下，我想通过分析公司的自由现金流、利润率和股本回报率来实现这一点。下面，我展示了我们需要的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3592c45dd11931534a65c171b42df2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> From the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.</p><p><blockquote>从上面显示的数字中，你可以立即指出事情没有朝着正确的方向发展。毛利率（或生产盈利能力）很好，等于69.9% 2021TTM，然而，营业利润率一点也不好，等于-101.1%（我们可以从净利润率观察到同样的情况）。事实上，如果我们把运营费用看作收入的百分比，我们可以发现这个数字等于171%。下面我显示结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb6af16f471180179056796c4f30820d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Next, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，正如我们从这些数字中可以预期的那样，净资产收益率是一个负数。负净资产收益率告诉我们，该公司正在破坏股东的价值。自由现金流保证金呢？我们可以观察到或多或少与营业利润率相同的模式。此外，通过更深入地研究现金流量表，我们可以发现一个非常明显的模式——公司通过每年发行更多股票来带来现金。当查看公司现金流量表时，我们发现公司现金流的主要来源不是经营活动的现金流，这通常被视为一个危险信号。总体而言，这些指标中的任何一个似乎都表明一家公司拥有可持续的经济护城河。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe7d504567011f28eb91b3e31fe1cd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> In the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.</p><p><blockquote>在贴现现金流模型中，我使用过去12个月的数字作为基准年数字。对于营收（收入），我假设明年的增长率为 49%，符合当前的收入增长模式和新的机会。对于Y2-Y5，我假设CAGR为30%，这是我认为合理的增长率。我允许公司以 1.02 的销售资本比率（与同行相比的第 90 个百分位数）和 6.9% 的当前 WACC 增长。</blockquote></p><p> I assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.</p><p><blockquote>我假设明年的营业利润率为-67%，目标营业利润率为31.2%（与同行相比为第85个百分位）。如果您想知道我曾经做出假设的同行是谁，那么，这些公司是 Alteryx (AYX)、微软 (MSFT)、甲骨文 (ORCL)、Datadog (DDOG) 等公司。</blockquote></p><p> A lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者似乎相信 Palantir 具有隐藏的价值，他们做出不切实际的假设来证明他们的发现是合理的。即使可能有，稀释效应也阻止了股票走高。投资者似乎不明白这一点，该公司乘风破浪，以不合理的价格发行更多股票。</blockquote></p><p> The central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在我的敏感性分析中看到的中心价值（7.34美元/股）是我使用DCF模型发现的公允价值，而绿色区域的价格是可能合理的价格（即使很难假设如此高的CAGR，也许是不现实的）。敏感性分析故意向右倾斜，因为房间里的多头多于空头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689c747c7d01668b6d6978063ee0ce3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的假设，我发现根据DCF模型，该公司的公允价值为7.34美元/股。现在你可能会说，这不是我一开始陈述的公允价值。完全正确，你抓到我了。我分配给公司的公允价值等于14.45美元/股，这是一个基于算法的估计，考虑了不同的因素，包括：基于DCF的公允价值、动量等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。该公司似乎明白这一点，并通过稀释股东权益来乘风破浪。我不喜欢看到公司这样的举动，即使公司可能会提供一些价格升值，风险也不值得赌（除非你喜欢赌博，不是吗？）.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value<blockquote>Palantir：稀释调整值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value<blockquote>Palantir：稀释调整值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.</li>  <li>It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.</li>  <li>I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.</li> </ul> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。</li><li>它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。</li><li>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元。</li></ul><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 成立于 2003 年，开始为情报界构建软件平台，后来扩展到商业领域。为此，已经开发了两个主要的软件平台，Palantir Gotham和Palantir Foundry。两者都充当中央操作系统，使客户能够集成他们的数据和操作。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Gotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).</li>  <li>Foundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.</li>  <li>Apollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.</li> </ol> The company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>哥谭是一个主要为国防和情报机构的分析师构建的平台。Gotham使用户能够识别隐藏在数据集深处的模式，从信号情报来源到机密线人的报告。Gotham平台也可供商业客户使用（例如，金融服务行业在欺诈调查中使用）。</li><li>Foundry是组织（例如空中客车公司（OTCPK：EADSF））用来管理复杂项目中涉及的大量数据的平台。它通过为组织的数据创建一个中央操作系统来改变组织的运营方式。个人用户可以在一个地方集成和分析他们需要的数据。用户实验和测试新想法的速度是该软件坚持下去的原因。</li><li>Apollo是一款交付软件，为Foundry和Gotham平台提供支持，并使它们能够在任何环境中运行。Apollo的目标是在不中断运营的情况下，将最新的功能提供到客户手中。</li></ol>该公司在全球开展业务，尤其是在美国、英国、法国和世界其他地区。下面我显示了按细分市场和地理位置划分的收入明细。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d03eb66b96b4d77da5936226da87d10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).</p><p><blockquote>使用过去 12 个月的数据，我们可以看到政府部门占 Palantir 总收入的 58%（2018 年为 42%），而商业部门占 48%（2018 年为 57%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"</p><p><blockquote>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元（当前价格为每股 24.38 美元）。众所周知，贴现现金流模型是评估公司公允价值的宝贵工具，然而，为了能够实施它，我们需要做出很多假设。我们必须做出的假设之一是关于公司未来的增长。但我们如何评估公司未来的增长呢？我们有不同的方法来实现这一点，但其中任何一种都是“唯一的”。</blockquote></p><p> Usually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.</p><p><blockquote>通常，我们要采取的第一步是评估公司是否拥有可持续的经济护城河。可持续的经济护城河是区分领导者和落后者的关键，它告诉我们应该对股票要求什么样的安全边际。没有经济护城河意味着更高的安全边际。评估一家公司是否有一种不同的方法并不是一件容易的事情。在这种情况下，我想通过分析公司的自由现金流、利润率和股本回报率来实现这一点。下面，我展示了我们需要的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3592c45dd11931534a65c171b42df2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> From the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.</p><p><blockquote>从上面显示的数字中，你可以立即指出事情没有朝着正确的方向发展。毛利率（或生产盈利能力）很好，等于69.9% 2021TTM，然而，营业利润率一点也不好，等于-101.1%（我们可以从净利润率观察到同样的情况）。事实上，如果我们把运营费用看作收入的百分比，我们可以发现这个数字等于171%。下面我显示结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb6af16f471180179056796c4f30820d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Next, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，正如我们从这些数字中可以预期的那样，净资产收益率是一个负数。负净资产收益率告诉我们，该公司正在破坏股东的价值。自由现金流保证金呢？我们可以观察到或多或少与营业利润率相同的模式。此外，通过更深入地研究现金流量表，我们可以发现一个非常明显的模式——公司通过每年发行更多股票来带来现金。当查看公司现金流量表时，我们发现公司现金流的主要来源不是经营活动的现金流，这通常被视为一个危险信号。总体而言，这些指标中的任何一个似乎都表明一家公司拥有可持续的经济护城河。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe7d504567011f28eb91b3e31fe1cd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> In the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.</p><p><blockquote>在贴现现金流模型中，我使用过去12个月的数字作为基准年数字。对于营收（收入），我假设明年的增长率为 49%，符合当前的收入增长模式和新的机会。对于Y2-Y5，我假设CAGR为30%，这是我认为合理的增长率。我允许公司以 1.02 的销售资本比率（与同行相比的第 90 个百分位数）和 6.9% 的当前 WACC 增长。</blockquote></p><p> I assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.</p><p><blockquote>我假设明年的营业利润率为-67%，目标营业利润率为31.2%（与同行相比为第85个百分位）。如果您想知道我曾经做出假设的同行是谁，那么，这些公司是 Alteryx (AYX)、微软 (MSFT)、甲骨文 (ORCL)、Datadog (DDOG) 等公司。</blockquote></p><p> A lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者似乎相信 Palantir 具有隐藏的价值，他们做出不切实际的假设来证明他们的发现是合理的。即使可能有，稀释效应也阻止了股票走高。投资者似乎不明白这一点，该公司乘风破浪，以不合理的价格发行更多股票。</blockquote></p><p> The central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在我的敏感性分析中看到的中心价值（7.34美元/股）是我使用DCF模型发现的公允价值，而绿色区域的价格是可能合理的价格（即使很难假设如此高的CAGR，也许是不现实的）。敏感性分析故意向右倾斜，因为房间里的多头多于空头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689c747c7d01668b6d6978063ee0ce3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的假设，我发现根据DCF模型，该公司的公允价值为7.34美元/股。现在你可能会说，这不是我一开始陈述的公允价值。完全正确，你抓到我了。我分配给公司的公允价值等于14.45美元/股，这是一个基于算法的估计，考虑了不同的因素，包括：基于DCF的公允价值、动量等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。该公司似乎明白这一点，并通过稀释股东权益来乘风破浪。我不喜欢看到公司这样的举动，即使公司可能会提供一些价格升值，风险也不值得赌（除非你喜欢赌博，不是吗？）.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434192-palantir-a-dilution-adjusted-value\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434192-palantir-a-dilution-adjusted-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113838701","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.\nIt has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.\nI initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.\n\nCompany Overview\nFounded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.\n\nGotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).\nFoundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.\nApollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.\n\nThe company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nUsing the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"\nUsually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nFrom the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.\n\nSourceAuthor's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNext, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.\nI assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.\nA lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.\nThe central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nUsing my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114661216,"gmtCreate":1623072915235,"gmtModify":1631891762004,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crazy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>","listText":"Crazy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>","text":"Crazy$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114661216","repostId":"2141286115","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198489031,"gmtCreate":1620980360723,"gmtModify":1631884479184,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"New trend&nbsp;","listText":"New trend&nbsp;","text":"New trend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198489031","repostId":"198413221","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":198413221,"gmtCreate":1620979737863,"gmtModify":1782193620911,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"时代财富观察","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22fad1649443d817dea3cbc957a1314","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497328009582754","authorIdStr":"3497328009582754"},"themes":[],"title":"通胀、暴跌、利率…极端情绪指标回顾，新兴市场该抄底吗？","htmlText":"贝瑞研究分析师&nbsp;Steve Sjuggerud简介：荣获金融专业博士学位，拥有30年金融从业经验，于2001年加入贝瑞研究母公司Stansberry Research，前纽约共同/对冲基金经理，其公开业绩医疗行业投资组合收益419%，科技行业投资组合收益133%，生物科技投资组合收益96%。贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨投资见解。经过昨天的惊魂之后，今天美股走高，一定程度上表明，投资者们消化了通胀数据。从4月份的生产者物价指数（PPI）来看，其环比同比均高于预期，因此形势之下可能会迫使美联储的升利率举措。但相反，市场上涨了，很可能是因为美联储强调通货膨胀是暂时的。而今天的就业数据也很好，失业救济人数连续2周触及疫情以来的低点。自2020年3月27日当周达到687万峰值以来，失业人数数据一直在稳步下降。上周他们跌至47.3万的低点。现在，四周移动平均线为53.4万，而上周是56万。所以从趋势看下来，我们会看到失业数据继续走低。在华尔街分析师和交易员眼中，失业人数下降表明经济正在恢复正常，这支持美联储和国会撤回刺激措施的理由。如果经济要进一步反弹，就业机会将成为重要的组成部分。服务业受到的打击最大，居家隔离对餐厅、酒店和餐旅活动企业的影响最大。因此，复苏进程至关重要。如果我们看到失业救济人数回落到去年的平均21万，那将是经济活动正在加速的另一个信号，这可能会刺激股市进一步上涨。说到复苏情况，在疫情期间遭受重创的新兴市场仍在挣扎。图源网络 版权属于原作者新兴市场在过去一年多的时间里涨了80%，但是投资者依旧非常害怕入场。可以看到，从2020年3月份开始，疫情恶化，新兴市场闪跌34%。现在一年过去了，投资者对新兴市场的厌恶仍不见好转… 仍处于观望状态。那随着疫情的好转与经济逐渐复苏，这样的新兴市场机会值得把","listText":"贝瑞研究分析师&nbsp;Steve Sjuggerud简介：荣获金融专业博士学位，拥有30年金融从业经验，于2001年加入贝瑞研究母公司Stansberry Research，前纽约共同/对冲基金经理，其公开业绩医疗行业投资组合收益419%，科技行业投资组合收益133%，生物科技投资组合收益96%。贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨投资见解。经过昨天的惊魂之后，今天美股走高，一定程度上表明，投资者们消化了通胀数据。从4月份的生产者物价指数（PPI）来看，其环比同比均高于预期，因此形势之下可能会迫使美联储的升利率举措。但相反，市场上涨了，很可能是因为美联储强调通货膨胀是暂时的。而今天的就业数据也很好，失业救济人数连续2周触及疫情以来的低点。自2020年3月27日当周达到687万峰值以来，失业人数数据一直在稳步下降。上周他们跌至47.3万的低点。现在，四周移动平均线为53.4万，而上周是56万。所以从趋势看下来，我们会看到失业数据继续走低。在华尔街分析师和交易员眼中，失业人数下降表明经济正在恢复正常，这支持美联储和国会撤回刺激措施的理由。如果经济要进一步反弹，就业机会将成为重要的组成部分。服务业受到的打击最大，居家隔离对餐厅、酒店和餐旅活动企业的影响最大。因此，复苏进程至关重要。如果我们看到失业救济人数回落到去年的平均21万，那将是经济活动正在加速的另一个信号，这可能会刺激股市进一步上涨。说到复苏情况，在疫情期间遭受重创的新兴市场仍在挣扎。图源网络 版权属于原作者新兴市场在过去一年多的时间里涨了80%，但是投资者依旧非常害怕入场。可以看到，从2020年3月份开始，疫情恶化，新兴市场闪跌34%。现在一年过去了，投资者对新兴市场的厌恶仍不见好转… 仍处于观望状态。那随着疫情的好转与经济逐渐复苏，这样的新兴市场机会值得把","text":"贝瑞研究分析师 Steve Sjuggerud简介：荣获金融专业博士学位，拥有30年金融从业经验，于2001年加入贝瑞研究母公司Stansberry Research，前纽约共同/对冲基金经理，其公开业绩医疗行业投资组合收益419%，科技行业投资组合收益133%，生物科技投资组合收益96%。贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨投资见解。经过昨天的惊魂之后，今天美股走高，一定程度上表明，投资者们消化了通胀数据。从4月份的生产者物价指数（PPI）来看，其环比同比均高于预期，因此形势之下可能会迫使美联储的升利率举措。但相反，市场上涨了，很可能是因为美联储强调通货膨胀是暂时的。而今天的就业数据也很好，失业救济人数连续2周触及疫情以来的低点。自2020年3月27日当周达到687万峰值以来，失业人数数据一直在稳步下降。上周他们跌至47.3万的低点。现在，四周移动平均线为53.4万，而上周是56万。所以从趋势看下来，我们会看到失业数据继续走低。在华尔街分析师和交易员眼中，失业人数下降表明经济正在恢复正常，这支持美联储和国会撤回刺激措施的理由。如果经济要进一步反弹，就业机会将成为重要的组成部分。服务业受到的打击最大，居家隔离对餐厅、酒店和餐旅活动企业的影响最大。因此，复苏进程至关重要。如果我们看到失业救济人数回落到去年的平均21万，那将是经济活动正在加速的另一个信号，这可能会刺激股市进一步上涨。说到复苏情况，在疫情期间遭受重创的新兴市场仍在挣扎。图源网络 版权属于原作者新兴市场在过去一年多的时间里涨了80%，但是投资者依旧非常害怕入场。可以看到，从2020年3月份开始，疫情恶化，新兴市场闪跌34%。现在一年过去了，投资者对新兴市场的厌恶仍不见好转… 仍处于观望状态。那随着疫情的好转与经济逐渐复苏，这样的新兴市场机会值得把","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e281b0772a4e9d43faa2f8bf601cf1c","width":"714","height":"534"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198413221","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350493810,"gmtCreate":1616246763830,"gmtModify":1631884711216,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$$Qualcomm(QCOM)$[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350493810","repostId":"2120714838","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321811334,"gmtCreate":1615421356028,"gmtModify":1703488767802,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Roblox&nbsp;","listText":"Roblox&nbsp;","text":"Roblox","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321811334","repostId":"1158871795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158871795","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615401200,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158871795?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 02:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox spikes 44% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Roblox 首日交易飙升 44%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158871795","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.Ro","content":"<p>Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 股价周三开盘价为每股 65 美元，比公司参考价高出约 44%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ba476c7f20db1e462a62e6f1df9db8\" tg-width=\"1847\" tg-height=\"904\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Roblox Corp.  joins the ranks of closely held companies turning to public markets to support growth. The San Mateo, Calif.-based videogame provider’s stock will begin trading March 10 on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RBLX. The shares are trading through a direct listing, bypassing the traditional route of an initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox Corp. 加入了少数控股公司转向公开市场以支持增长的行列。这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣马特奥的视频游戏提供商的股票将于 3 月 10 日在纽约证券交易所开始交易，股票代码为 RBLX。这些股票通过直接上市进行交易，绕过了首次公开募股的传统途径。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s reference price was set at $45, in lieu of a formal IPO price, and is based on recent private-market transactions.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的参考价定为 45 美元，而不是正式的 IPO 价格，是根据最近的私人市场交易得出的。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox&nbsp;isn’t a traditional videogame company&nbsp;and is using a nontraditional process to potentially reach investors as the pandemic&nbsp;has driven people to spend more time and money on gameplay. Here’s what you need to know about the company and its plans for a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 并不是一家传统的视频游戏公司，由于大流行病促使人们在游戏上花费更多时间和金钱，它正在使用一种非传统的流程来接触潜在的投资者。以下是您需要了解的有关该公司及其直接上市计划的信息。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox said in the latest update to its&nbsp;prospectus&nbsp;that it paid developers $328.7 million last year, up almost 200% from 2019. That far outpaced the company’s sales growth of 82% last year, when it booked $923.9 million in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 在最新更新的招股说明书中表示，去年向开发者支付了 3.287 亿美元，比 2019 年增长了近 200%。这远远超过了该公司去年 82% 的销售额增长率，当时该公司的总收入为 9.239 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>More than 1,250 developers earned at least $10,000 in the digital currency Robux, which can be converted to cash. Over 300 earned $100,000 or more.</p><p><blockquote>超过1250名开发者在数字货币Robux中赚取了至少1万美元，可以兑换成现金。超过300人的收入达到或超过10万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox is telling prospective shareholders to get comfortable with its hefty payouts. In its&nbsp;investor presentationlast week, the company said it plans to shell out even more to creators to incentive higher-quality content and fund bigger teams of engineers, designers, artists and producers.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 告诉潜在股东对其巨额派息感到满意。该公司在上周的投资者演示中表示，计划向创作者支付更多费用，以激励更高质量的内容，并为更大的工程师、设计师、艺术家和制片人团队提供资金。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is Roblox?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是Roblox？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is a free online platform that features tens of millions of multiplayer games made by its own players with tools the company provides. The games range from obstacle-course challenges and iterations of capture the flag to contests based on popular characters such as Peppa Pig and Sonic the Hedgehog. Company officials have said they are interested in increasing the use of Roblox for things such as virtual concerts and meetings.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox是一个免费的在线平台，拥有数千万个由自己的玩家使用公司提供的工具制作的多人游戏。游戏范围从障碍赛挑战和夺旗迭代到基于小猪佩奇和刺猬索尼克等流行角色的比赛。公司官员表示，他们有兴趣增加在虚拟音乐会和会议等活动中使用Roblox。</blockquote></p><p><b>Who plays Roblox and how?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁玩Roblox，怎么玩？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is accessible on computers, consoles and mobile devices. The company said it had roughly 33 million daily users last year, of whom more than half are under the age of 13. Players in Roblox appear in the form of customizable avatars.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox可以在电脑、控制台和移动设备上访问。该公司表示，去年每天约有 3300 万用户，其中一半以上年龄在 13 岁以下。Roblox中的玩家以可定制头像的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p><b>Roblox’s Covid boom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Roblox 的新冠疫情热潮</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox has been a huge beneficiary of the Covid-19 shutdowns, which forced kids out of the classroom and away from their friends. With no school to attend and birthday parties canceled,kids turned to Roblox, where they can socialize virtually, navigating theme parks, attending concerts and playing action games while also staying in touch using its popular text chat feature.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 是 Covid-19 关闭的巨大受益者，这迫使孩子们离开教室，远离他们的朋友。由于没有学校可以上学，生日派对也被取消，孩子们转向了Roblox，在那里他们可以进行虚拟社交，浏览主题公园，参加音乐会和玩动作游戏，同时还可以使用其流行的文本聊天功能保持联系。</blockquote></p><p>Daily active users jumped 85% in 2020 to 32.6 million. The number of hours that players spent on the app more than doubled to 30.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，日活跃用户跃升85%，达到3260万。玩家在该应用上花费的小时数增加了一倍多，达到306亿。</blockquote></p><p>That unexpected and unprecedented growth has created some challenges around its developer community. The company has had to contend with an influx ofspammers&nbsp;and&nbsp;scammers&nbsp;who are out to take advantage of some of the millions of kids who are ready and willing to spend their parents money on Robux.</p><p><blockquote>这种意想不到和前所未有的增长给其开发者社区带来了一些挑战。该公司不得不应对大量垃圾邮件发送者和骗子的涌入，他们试图利用数百万准备并愿意在 Robux 上花父母钱的孩子。</blockquote></p><p>In-game pop-ups lure users with the promise of free Robux if they fill out a survey, only to reroute them to other sites where there’s no Robux and even more spam. In some cases, Roblox developers unknowingly install a malicious plug-in from the game development studio, infecting their own game.</p><p><blockquote>游戏中的弹出窗口以填写调查问卷即可获得免费 Robux 的承诺来吸引用户，结果却将他们重定向到其他没有 Robux 甚至垃圾邮件的网站。在某些情况下，Roblox开发者在不知情的情况下安装了游戏开发工作室的恶意插件，感染了他们自己的游戏。</blockquote></p><p>“Because of the popularity of our platform, we believe that we are an attractive target for these sorts of attacks,” Roblox said in its prospectus. The company said it’s investing to make sure outside parties can’t access user data and to prevent phishing, spamming and malware as much as possible.</p><p><blockquote>“Roblox 在招股说明书中说：”由于我们平台的受欢迎程度，我们相信我们是这类攻击的一个有吸引力的目标。该公司表示，它正在进行投资，以确保外部各方无法访问用户数据，并尽可能防止网络钓鱼、垃圾邮件和恶意软件。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s second-biggest expense, behind developer fees, is infrastructure, privacy and safety. Those costs jumped 69% last year to $264.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的第二大支出是基础设施、隐私和安全，仅次于开发者费用。这些成本去年跃升 69%，达到 2.642 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox spikes 44% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Roblox 首日交易飙升 44%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox spikes 44% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Roblox 首日交易飙升 44%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 02:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 股价周三开盘价为每股 65 美元，比公司参考价高出约 44%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ba476c7f20db1e462a62e6f1df9db8\" tg-width=\"1847\" tg-height=\"904\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Roblox Corp.  joins the ranks of closely held companies turning to public markets to support growth. The San Mateo, Calif.-based videogame provider’s stock will begin trading March 10 on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RBLX. The shares are trading through a direct listing, bypassing the traditional route of an initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox Corp. 加入了少数控股公司转向公开市场以支持增长的行列。这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣马特奥的视频游戏提供商的股票将于 3 月 10 日在纽约证券交易所开始交易，股票代码为 RBLX。这些股票通过直接上市进行交易，绕过了首次公开募股的传统途径。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s reference price was set at $45, in lieu of a formal IPO price, and is based on recent private-market transactions.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的参考价定为 45 美元，而不是正式的 IPO 价格，是根据最近的私人市场交易得出的。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox&nbsp;isn’t a traditional videogame company&nbsp;and is using a nontraditional process to potentially reach investors as the pandemic&nbsp;has driven people to spend more time and money on gameplay. Here’s what you need to know about the company and its plans for a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 并不是一家传统的视频游戏公司，由于大流行病促使人们在游戏上花费更多时间和金钱，它正在使用一种非传统的流程来接触潜在的投资者。以下是您需要了解的有关该公司及其直接上市计划的信息。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox said in the latest update to its&nbsp;prospectus&nbsp;that it paid developers $328.7 million last year, up almost 200% from 2019. That far outpaced the company’s sales growth of 82% last year, when it booked $923.9 million in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 在最新更新的招股说明书中表示，去年向开发者支付了 3.287 亿美元，比 2019 年增长了近 200%。这远远超过了该公司去年 82% 的销售额增长率，当时该公司的总收入为 9.239 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>More than 1,250 developers earned at least $10,000 in the digital currency Robux, which can be converted to cash. Over 300 earned $100,000 or more.</p><p><blockquote>超过1250名开发者在数字货币Robux中赚取了至少1万美元，可以兑换成现金。超过300人的收入达到或超过10万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox is telling prospective shareholders to get comfortable with its hefty payouts. In its&nbsp;investor presentationlast week, the company said it plans to shell out even more to creators to incentive higher-quality content and fund bigger teams of engineers, designers, artists and producers.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 告诉潜在股东对其巨额派息感到满意。该公司在上周的投资者演示中表示，计划向创作者支付更多费用，以激励更高质量的内容，并为更大的工程师、设计师、艺术家和制片人团队提供资金。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is Roblox?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是Roblox？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is a free online platform that features tens of millions of multiplayer games made by its own players with tools the company provides. The games range from obstacle-course challenges and iterations of capture the flag to contests based on popular characters such as Peppa Pig and Sonic the Hedgehog. Company officials have said they are interested in increasing the use of Roblox for things such as virtual concerts and meetings.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox是一个免费的在线平台，拥有数千万个由自己的玩家使用公司提供的工具制作的多人游戏。游戏范围从障碍赛挑战和夺旗迭代到基于小猪佩奇和刺猬索尼克等流行角色的比赛。公司官员表示，他们有兴趣增加在虚拟音乐会和会议等活动中使用Roblox。</blockquote></p><p><b>Who plays Roblox and how?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁玩Roblox，怎么玩？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is accessible on computers, consoles and mobile devices. The company said it had roughly 33 million daily users last year, of whom more than half are under the age of 13. Players in Roblox appear in the form of customizable avatars.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox可以在电脑、控制台和移动设备上访问。该公司表示，去年每天约有 3300 万用户，其中一半以上年龄在 13 岁以下。Roblox中的玩家以可定制头像的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p><b>Roblox’s Covid boom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Roblox 的新冠疫情热潮</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox has been a huge beneficiary of the Covid-19 shutdowns, which forced kids out of the classroom and away from their friends. With no school to attend and birthday parties canceled,kids turned to Roblox, where they can socialize virtually, navigating theme parks, attending concerts and playing action games while also staying in touch using its popular text chat feature.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 是 Covid-19 关闭的巨大受益者，这迫使孩子们离开教室，远离他们的朋友。由于没有学校可以上学，生日派对也被取消，孩子们转向了Roblox，在那里他们可以进行虚拟社交，浏览主题公园，参加音乐会和玩动作游戏，同时还可以使用其流行的文本聊天功能保持联系。</blockquote></p><p>Daily active users jumped 85% in 2020 to 32.6 million. The number of hours that players spent on the app more than doubled to 30.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，日活跃用户跃升85%，达到3260万。玩家在该应用上花费的小时数增加了一倍多，达到306亿。</blockquote></p><p>That unexpected and unprecedented growth has created some challenges around its developer community. The company has had to contend with an influx ofspammers&nbsp;and&nbsp;scammers&nbsp;who are out to take advantage of some of the millions of kids who are ready and willing to spend their parents money on Robux.</p><p><blockquote>这种意想不到和前所未有的增长给其开发者社区带来了一些挑战。该公司不得不应对大量垃圾邮件发送者和骗子的涌入，他们试图利用数百万准备并愿意在 Robux 上花父母钱的孩子。</blockquote></p><p>In-game pop-ups lure users with the promise of free Robux if they fill out a survey, only to reroute them to other sites where there’s no Robux and even more spam. In some cases, Roblox developers unknowingly install a malicious plug-in from the game development studio, infecting their own game.</p><p><blockquote>游戏中的弹出窗口以填写调查问卷即可获得免费 Robux 的承诺来吸引用户，结果却将他们重定向到其他没有 Robux 甚至垃圾邮件的网站。在某些情况下，Roblox开发者在不知情的情况下安装了游戏开发工作室的恶意插件，感染了他们自己的游戏。</blockquote></p><p>“Because of the popularity of our platform, we believe that we are an attractive target for these sorts of attacks,” Roblox said in its prospectus. The company said it’s investing to make sure outside parties can’t access user data and to prevent phishing, spamming and malware as much as possible.</p><p><blockquote>“Roblox 在招股说明书中说：”由于我们平台的受欢迎程度，我们相信我们是这类攻击的一个有吸引力的目标。该公司表示，它正在进行投资，以确保外部各方无法访问用户数据，并尽可能防止网络钓鱼、垃圾邮件和恶意软件。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s second-biggest expense, behind developer fees, is infrastructure, privacy and safety. Those costs jumped 69% last year to $264.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的第二大支出是基础设施、隐私和安全，仅次于开发者费用。这些成本去年跃升 69%，达到 2.642 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158871795","content_text":"Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.Roblox Corp.  joins the ranks of closely held companies turning to public markets to support growth. The San Mateo, Calif.-based videogame provider’s stock will begin trading March 10 on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RBLX. The shares are trading through a direct listing, bypassing the traditional route of an initial public offering.Roblox’s reference price was set at $45, in lieu of a formal IPO price, and is based on recent private-market transactions.Roblox isn’t a traditional videogame company and is using a nontraditional process to potentially reach investors as the pandemic has driven people to spend more time and money on gameplay. Here’s what you need to know about the company and its plans for a direct listing.Roblox said in the latest update to its prospectus that it paid developers $328.7 million last year, up almost 200% from 2019. That far outpaced the company’s sales growth of 82% last year, when it booked $923.9 million in total revenue.More than 1,250 developers earned at least $10,000 in the digital currency Robux, which can be converted to cash. Over 300 earned $100,000 or more.Roblox is telling prospective shareholders to get comfortable with its hefty payouts. In its investor presentationlast week, the company said it plans to shell out even more to creators to incentive higher-quality content and fund bigger teams of engineers, designers, artists and producers.What is Roblox?Roblox is a free online platform that features tens of millions of multiplayer games made by its own players with tools the company provides. The games range from obstacle-course challenges and iterations of capture the flag to contests based on popular characters such as Peppa Pig and Sonic the Hedgehog. Company officials have said they are interested in increasing the use of Roblox for things such as virtual concerts and meetings.Who plays Roblox and how?Roblox is accessible on computers, consoles and mobile devices. The company said it had roughly 33 million daily users last year, of whom more than half are under the age of 13. Players in Roblox appear in the form of customizable avatars.Roblox’s Covid boomRoblox has been a huge beneficiary of the Covid-19 shutdowns, which forced kids out of the classroom and away from their friends. With no school to attend and birthday parties canceled,kids turned to Roblox, where they can socialize virtually, navigating theme parks, attending concerts and playing action games while also staying in touch using its popular text chat feature.Daily active users jumped 85% in 2020 to 32.6 million. The number of hours that players spent on the app more than doubled to 30.6 billion.That unexpected and unprecedented growth has created some challenges around its developer community. The company has had to contend with an influx ofspammers and scammers who are out to take advantage of some of the millions of kids who are ready and willing to spend their parents money on Robux.In-game pop-ups lure users with the promise of free Robux if they fill out a survey, only to reroute them to other sites where there’s no Robux and even more spam. In some cases, Roblox developers unknowingly install a malicious plug-in from the game development studio, infecting their own game.“Because of the popularity of our platform, we believe that we are an attractive target for these sorts of attacks,” Roblox said in its prospectus. The company said it’s investing to make sure outside parties can’t access user data and to prevent phishing, spamming and malware as much as possible.Roblox’s second-biggest expense, behind developer fees, is infrastructure, privacy and safety. Those costs jumped 69% last year to $264.2 million.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368799580,"gmtCreate":1614351588740,"gmtModify":1703476800041,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Opportunity&nbsp;","listText":"Opportunity&nbsp;","text":"Opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368799580","repostId":"1150278371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150278371","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614332308,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150278371?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 17:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NVIDIA Shares Stumbled, After an Impressive Earnings Report<blockquote>为什么英伟达股价在令人印象深刻的收益报告后下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150278371","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The soaring stock was arguably due for a correction, and some investors worry that the end of this c","content":"<p>The soaring stock was arguably due for a correction, and some investors worry that the end of this cryptocurrency boom could hurt NVIDIA's business.</p><p><blockquote>股价飙升可以说是由于回调，一些投资者担心加密货币繁荣的结束可能会损害英伟达的业务。</blockquote></p><p><b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p>Semiconductor developer&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;posted strong fourth-quarter results last night with a side of optimistic guidance for the next reporting period. The stock fell as much as 8.2% on Thursday anyhow, because sometimes even an analyst-stumping report isn't quite enough to support a&nbsp;skyrocketing stock&nbsp;like NVIDIA's.</p><p><blockquote>半导体显影剂<b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）昨晚公布了强劲的第四季度业绩，并对下一个报告期给出了乐观的指引。无论如何，该股周四下跌了 8.2%，因为有时即使是难倒分析师的报告也不足以支撑英伟达这样飙升的股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p>In the fourth quarter of 2020, NVIDIA's top-line revenue rose 62% year over year to $5 billion. Adjusted earnings climbed 64% higher, landing at $3.10 per diluted share. Your average analyst would have settled for earnings near $2.81 per share on sales in the neighborhood of $4.82 billion. The stellar results were driven by high demand for NVIDIA's data center processors and gaming products.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第四季度，英伟达的营收同比增长62%，达到50亿美元。调整后收益攀升 64%，稀释后每股收益达到 3.10 美元。普通分析师会满足于每股收益接近 2.81 美元，销售额约为 48.2 亿美元。出色的业绩是由对英伟达数据中心处理器和游戏产品的高需求推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Heading into the report, NVIDIA's shares had gained 112% in 52 weeks. The stock traded at a nosebleed-inducing 95 times trailing earnings and 86 times&nbsp;free cash flow, setting the stage for a significant price cut despite a strong earnings report. Today, you can pick up NVIDIA's shares for the somewhat less exorbitant valuation ratios of 93 times adjusted earnings or 71 times free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布前，英伟达的股价在 52 周内上涨了 112%。尽管财报强劲，但该股的交易价格为追踪市盈率的 95 倍和自由现金流的 86 倍，这为大幅降价奠定了基础。如今，您可以以调整后市盈率 93 倍或自由现金流 71 倍的略微不那么过高的估值比率购买 NVIDIA 的股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p>Some investors also worry about artificial growth stemming from rising cryptocurrency prices. Specifically, NVIDIA's graphics processors are very efficient at mining&nbsp;<b>Ethereum</b>(CRYPTO:ETH)&nbsp;tokens and the smart-contract cryptocurrency has seen prices skyrocket 568% over the last year. If Ethereum miners are buying tons of NVIDIA's graphics cards, that leaves fewer units on store shelves for actual gamers. All of this is happening during a marketwide&nbsp;shortage of semiconductor manufacturing capacity, limiting the processor supplies even further. All of this sounds like good news for NVIDIA, but the idea is that it also exposes the company to significant market risks if Ethereum prices crash again, killing the demand for token-mining hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者还担心加密货币价格上涨带来的人为增长。具体来说，NVIDIA 的图形处理器在挖掘方面非常高效<b>以太币</b>（CRYPTO:ETH）代币和智能合约加密货币的价格在去年飙升了 568%。如果以太币矿工购买大量英伟达显卡，那么商店货架上留给真正游戏玩家的显卡就会减少。所有这一切都发生在半导体制造产能全市场短缺的情况下，进一步限制了处理器供应。所有这些听起来对英伟达来说都是个好消息，但这个想法是，如果以太币价格再次暴跌，扼杀了对代币挖矿硬件的需求，这也会使该公司面临巨大的市场风险。</blockquote></p><p>NVIDIA's management has acknowledged this concern and&nbsp;taken steps to limit the Ethereum-mining appeal of its gaming hardware. Furthermore, CEO Jensen Huang argues that the cryptocurrency mining market is a fairly small part of his company's end-user market. Hyper-specialized application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) play a much larger role in the crypto-mining sector.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达管理层已经承认了这一担忧，并采取措施限制其游戏硬件的以太币挖掘吸引力。此外，首席执行官黄仁勋认为，加密货币挖矿市场是他公司最终用户市场的一小部分。超专业化专用集成电路（ASIC）在密码挖掘领域发挥着更大的作用。</blockquote></p><p>\"I think that this is going to be a part of our business. It won't grow extremely large no matter what happens and the reason for that is because when it starts to grow large, more ASICs come to the market, which kinds of mutes it,\" Huang said on the fourth-quarter earnings call. \"When the market becomes smaller, it's harder for ASICs to sustain the R&amp;D and so the spot miners, industrial miners come back and then we'll create [cryptocurrency mining processors]. And so we expect it to be a small part of our business as we go forward. \"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为这将成为我们业务的一部分。无论发生什么，它都不会增长得非常大，原因是当它开始增长时，更多的 ASICs 进入市场，这在某种程度上抑制了它，”黄在第四季度财报看涨期权上说道。“当市场变得更小时，ASICs 就更难维持研发，因此现货矿工、工业矿工会回来，然后我们会创建[加密货币挖矿处理器]。因此，随着我们的发展，我们预计它将成为我们业务的一小部分。”</blockquote></p><p>The company can't track how people end up using the chips it sells, but Huang estimates that roughly $200 million of this quarter's gaming product sales came from mining enthusiasts. That's just 8% of a $2.5 billion top-line haul.</p><p><blockquote>该公司无法追踪人们最终如何使用其销售的芯片，但黄估计本季度游戏产品销售额中约有 2 亿美元来自采矿爱好者。这只是 25 亿美元营收的 8%。</blockquote></p><p>All of this is to say that NVIDIA's post-earnings correction may have been amplified by the Ethereum mining risk, and that particular threat doesn't look all that menacing. Therefore, you could make a case that NVIDIA's shares are selling at a discount today -- despite the sky-high valuation ratios.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都表明，英伟达的财报后调整可能会因以太币矿业风险而放大，而这种特殊的威胁看起来并不那么具有威胁性。因此，你可以证明英伟达的股票今天正在打折出售——尽管估值比率极高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NVIDIA Shares Stumbled, After an Impressive Earnings Report<blockquote>为什么英伟达股价在令人印象深刻的收益报告后下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NVIDIA Shares Stumbled, After an Impressive Earnings Report<blockquote>为什么英伟达股价在令人印象深刻的收益报告后下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 17:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The soaring stock was arguably due for a correction, and some investors worry that the end of this cryptocurrency boom could hurt NVIDIA's business.</p><p><blockquote>股价飙升可以说是由于回调，一些投资者担心加密货币繁荣的结束可能会损害英伟达的业务。</blockquote></p><p><b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p>Semiconductor developer&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;posted strong fourth-quarter results last night with a side of optimistic guidance for the next reporting period. The stock fell as much as 8.2% on Thursday anyhow, because sometimes even an analyst-stumping report isn't quite enough to support a&nbsp;skyrocketing stock&nbsp;like NVIDIA's.</p><p><blockquote>半导体显影剂<b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）昨晚公布了强劲的第四季度业绩，并对下一个报告期给出了乐观的指引。无论如何，该股周四下跌了 8.2%，因为有时即使是难倒分析师的报告也不足以支撑英伟达这样飙升的股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p>In the fourth quarter of 2020, NVIDIA's top-line revenue rose 62% year over year to $5 billion. Adjusted earnings climbed 64% higher, landing at $3.10 per diluted share. Your average analyst would have settled for earnings near $2.81 per share on sales in the neighborhood of $4.82 billion. The stellar results were driven by high demand for NVIDIA's data center processors and gaming products.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第四季度，英伟达的营收同比增长62%，达到50亿美元。调整后收益攀升 64%，稀释后每股收益达到 3.10 美元。普通分析师会满足于每股收益接近 2.81 美元，销售额约为 48.2 亿美元。出色的业绩是由对英伟达数据中心处理器和游戏产品的高需求推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Heading into the report, NVIDIA's shares had gained 112% in 52 weeks. The stock traded at a nosebleed-inducing 95 times trailing earnings and 86 times&nbsp;free cash flow, setting the stage for a significant price cut despite a strong earnings report. Today, you can pick up NVIDIA's shares for the somewhat less exorbitant valuation ratios of 93 times adjusted earnings or 71 times free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布前，英伟达的股价在 52 周内上涨了 112%。尽管财报强劲，但该股的交易价格为追踪市盈率的 95 倍和自由现金流的 86 倍，这为大幅降价奠定了基础。如今，您可以以调整后市盈率 93 倍或自由现金流 71 倍的略微不那么过高的估值比率购买 NVIDIA 的股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p>Some investors also worry about artificial growth stemming from rising cryptocurrency prices. Specifically, NVIDIA's graphics processors are very efficient at mining&nbsp;<b>Ethereum</b>(CRYPTO:ETH)&nbsp;tokens and the smart-contract cryptocurrency has seen prices skyrocket 568% over the last year. If Ethereum miners are buying tons of NVIDIA's graphics cards, that leaves fewer units on store shelves for actual gamers. All of this is happening during a marketwide&nbsp;shortage of semiconductor manufacturing capacity, limiting the processor supplies even further. All of this sounds like good news for NVIDIA, but the idea is that it also exposes the company to significant market risks if Ethereum prices crash again, killing the demand for token-mining hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者还担心加密货币价格上涨带来的人为增长。具体来说，NVIDIA 的图形处理器在挖掘方面非常高效<b>以太币</b>（CRYPTO:ETH）代币和智能合约加密货币的价格在去年飙升了 568%。如果以太币矿工购买大量英伟达显卡，那么商店货架上留给真正游戏玩家的显卡就会减少。所有这一切都发生在半导体制造产能全市场短缺的情况下，进一步限制了处理器供应。所有这些听起来对英伟达来说都是个好消息，但这个想法是，如果以太币价格再次暴跌，扼杀了对代币挖矿硬件的需求，这也会使该公司面临巨大的市场风险。</blockquote></p><p>NVIDIA's management has acknowledged this concern and&nbsp;taken steps to limit the Ethereum-mining appeal of its gaming hardware. Furthermore, CEO Jensen Huang argues that the cryptocurrency mining market is a fairly small part of his company's end-user market. Hyper-specialized application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) play a much larger role in the crypto-mining sector.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达管理层已经承认了这一担忧，并采取措施限制其游戏硬件的以太币挖掘吸引力。此外，首席执行官黄仁勋认为，加密货币挖矿市场是他公司最终用户市场的一小部分。超专业化专用集成电路（ASIC）在密码挖掘领域发挥着更大的作用。</blockquote></p><p>\"I think that this is going to be a part of our business. It won't grow extremely large no matter what happens and the reason for that is because when it starts to grow large, more ASICs come to the market, which kinds of mutes it,\" Huang said on the fourth-quarter earnings call. \"When the market becomes smaller, it's harder for ASICs to sustain the R&amp;D and so the spot miners, industrial miners come back and then we'll create [cryptocurrency mining processors]. And so we expect it to be a small part of our business as we go forward. \"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为这将成为我们业务的一部分。无论发生什么，它都不会增长得非常大，原因是当它开始增长时，更多的 ASICs 进入市场，这在某种程度上抑制了它，”黄在第四季度财报看涨期权上说道。“当市场变得更小时，ASICs 就更难维持研发，因此现货矿工、工业矿工会回来，然后我们会创建[加密货币挖矿处理器]。因此，随着我们的发展，我们预计它将成为我们业务的一小部分。”</blockquote></p><p>The company can't track how people end up using the chips it sells, but Huang estimates that roughly $200 million of this quarter's gaming product sales came from mining enthusiasts. That's just 8% of a $2.5 billion top-line haul.</p><p><blockquote>该公司无法追踪人们最终如何使用其销售的芯片，但黄估计本季度游戏产品销售额中约有 2 亿美元来自采矿爱好者。这只是 25 亿美元营收的 8%。</blockquote></p><p>All of this is to say that NVIDIA's post-earnings correction may have been amplified by the Ethereum mining risk, and that particular threat doesn't look all that menacing. Therefore, you could make a case that NVIDIA's shares are selling at a discount today -- despite the sky-high valuation ratios.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都表明，英伟达的财报后调整可能会因以太币矿业风险而放大，而这种特殊的威胁看起来并不那么具有威胁性。因此，你可以证明英伟达的股票今天正在打折出售——尽管估值比率极高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nvidia-shares-stumbled-today-after-an-impressi/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nvidia-shares-stumbled-today-after-an-impressi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150278371","content_text":"The soaring stock was arguably due for a correction, and some investors worry that the end of this cryptocurrency boom could hurt NVIDIA's business.What happenedSemiconductor developer NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) posted strong fourth-quarter results last night with a side of optimistic guidance for the next reporting period. The stock fell as much as 8.2% on Thursday anyhow, because sometimes even an analyst-stumping report isn't quite enough to support a skyrocketing stock like NVIDIA's.So whatIn the fourth quarter of 2020, NVIDIA's top-line revenue rose 62% year over year to $5 billion. Adjusted earnings climbed 64% higher, landing at $3.10 per diluted share. Your average analyst would have settled for earnings near $2.81 per share on sales in the neighborhood of $4.82 billion. The stellar results were driven by high demand for NVIDIA's data center processors and gaming products.Heading into the report, NVIDIA's shares had gained 112% in 52 weeks. The stock traded at a nosebleed-inducing 95 times trailing earnings and 86 times free cash flow, setting the stage for a significant price cut despite a strong earnings report. Today, you can pick up NVIDIA's shares for the somewhat less exorbitant valuation ratios of 93 times adjusted earnings or 71 times free cash flow.Now whatSome investors also worry about artificial growth stemming from rising cryptocurrency prices. Specifically, NVIDIA's graphics processors are very efficient at mining Ethereum(CRYPTO:ETH) tokens and the smart-contract cryptocurrency has seen prices skyrocket 568% over the last year. If Ethereum miners are buying tons of NVIDIA's graphics cards, that leaves fewer units on store shelves for actual gamers. All of this is happening during a marketwide shortage of semiconductor manufacturing capacity, limiting the processor supplies even further. All of this sounds like good news for NVIDIA, but the idea is that it also exposes the company to significant market risks if Ethereum prices crash again, killing the demand for token-mining hardware.NVIDIA's management has acknowledged this concern and taken steps to limit the Ethereum-mining appeal of its gaming hardware. Furthermore, CEO Jensen Huang argues that the cryptocurrency mining market is a fairly small part of his company's end-user market. Hyper-specialized application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) play a much larger role in the crypto-mining sector.\"I think that this is going to be a part of our business. It won't grow extremely large no matter what happens and the reason for that is because when it starts to grow large, more ASICs come to the market, which kinds of mutes it,\" Huang said on the fourth-quarter earnings call. \"When the market becomes smaller, it's harder for ASICs to sustain the R&D and so the spot miners, industrial miners come back and then we'll create [cryptocurrency mining processors]. And so we expect it to be a small part of our business as we go forward. \"The company can't track how people end up using the chips it sells, but Huang estimates that roughly $200 million of this quarter's gaming product sales came from mining enthusiasts. That's just 8% of a $2.5 billion top-line haul.All of this is to say that NVIDIA's post-earnings correction may have been amplified by the Ethereum mining risk, and that particular threat doesn't look all that menacing. Therefore, you could make a case that NVIDIA's shares are selling at a discount today -- despite the sky-high valuation ratios.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385530048,"gmtCreate":1613561697084,"gmtModify":1631891762045,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385530048","repostId":"1153738409","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385597226,"gmtCreate":1613561655465,"gmtModify":1631891762056,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"QS!&nbsp;","listText":"QS!&nbsp;","text":"QS!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385597226","repostId":"1153738409","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382127096,"gmtCreate":1613392313215,"gmtModify":1631891762065,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Undervalued&nbsp;","listText":"Undervalued&nbsp;","text":"Undervalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382127096","repostId":"1127674073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127674073","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612925109,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127674073?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 10:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nvidia Set for a Massive Breakout?<blockquote>英伟达是否即将迎来大规模突破？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127674073","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Nvidia has been consolidating for months now, boring traders in the process. Is the chip giant final","content":"<p>Nvidia has been consolidating for months now, boring traders in the process. Is the chip giant finally waking up?</p><p><blockquote>英伟达已经整合了几个月，在这个过程中让交易员感到厌烦。芯片巨头终于醒悟了吗？</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>) have frustrated bullish traders for months now. That is until this week’s powerful move.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股票（<b>NVDA</b>）几个月来一直让看涨的交易者感到沮丧。直到本周的强有力举动。</blockquote></p><p>The stock burst higher by more than 6% on Monday on news of acontinued chip shortage. Shares were down less than 1% on Tuesday as bulls maintain a bulk of the gains.</p><p><blockquote>受芯片持续短缺的消息影响，该股周一飙升超过 6%。由于多头维持了大部分涨幅，周二股价下跌不到 1%。</blockquote></p><p>Trading in this name has been difficult, full of false breakouts and breakdowns as Nvidia has been consolidating its large gains. Advanced Micro Devices&nbsp;(<b>AMD</b>)&nbsp;hashad similar action.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达一直在巩固其巨大收益，以这个名义进行交易一直很困难，充满了虚假的突破和崩溃。先进微器件（<b>AMD</b>)hashad类似的动作。</blockquote></p><p>For traders, this is frustrating. For investors, a&nbsp;large rally followed by sideways price action&nbsp;is essentially the best outcome they could have hoped for. Eventually though, they too want to see a breakout to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>对于交易者来说，这是令人沮丧的。对于投资者来说，大幅上涨后价格横盘走势基本上是他们所能希望的最好结果。但最终，他们也希望看到上行的突破。</blockquote></p><p>With earnings due up later this month, are we on the verge of more gains?</p><p><blockquote>随着本月晚些时候财报公布，我们是否即将获得更多收益？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc7ee3828c12f14369269c5fd410c48\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nvidia finally broke out to new highs in February 2020, only to see the stock market roll over just a few days later. But amid that abrupt decline, notice how well Nvidia held up, virtually halting its decline at the 200-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达终于在2020年2月突破新高，几天后股市就翻盘了。但在突然下跌的情况下，请注意 Nvidia 的表现有多好，几乎止住了 200 日移动平均线的跌势。</blockquote></p><p>It went on a tear after that, rallying from sub-$200 to almost $600 in September.</p><p><blockquote>此后价格一路飙升，9 月份从不到 200 美元反弹至近 600 美元。</blockquote></p><p>After a sharp correction, we’ve seen the stock go nowhere for the last five months as it chops sideways.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了大幅调整之后，我们看到该股在过去五个月里一蹶不振，一直在横盘整理。</blockquote></p><p>Monday’s rally over $560 put the stock over last month’s high. There is a level of downtrend resistance potentially in play (blue line), but I’m not ready to put a lot of weight in this mark.</p><p><blockquote>周一超过 560 美元的反弹使该股超过了上个月的高点。可能存在一定程度的下降趋势阻力（蓝线），但我还没有准备好过多关注这个关口。</blockquote></p><p>Instead, I am keeping my eye on the $590 level and the $560 level — the latter of which was the monthly-up trigger.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我密切关注 590 美元水平和 560 美元水平——后者是每月上涨的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p>To lose $560 puts Nvidia back in the chop zone, potentially putting $500 back in play but most likely leaving it there to trade between $520 and $550.</p><p><blockquote>亏损 560 美元将使 Nvidia 重新回到 chop 区域，可能会让 500 美元重新发挥作用，但很可能会使其交易价格在 520 美元至 550 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>If it can clear $590 — which was the high in September and resistance in November — then perhaps we can get a much larger move to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能够突破 590 美元（这是 9 月份的高点和 11 月份的阻力位），那么也许我们可以获得更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p>Specifically, if Nvidia clears $600, investors may begin looking as high as the $660s for a potential upside target. In that area, the stock will find the 161.8% extension from the recent range.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，如果英伟达突破 600 美元，投资者可能会开始寻找高达 660 美元的潜在上涨目标。在该领域，该股将比最近的区间上涨 161.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps the stock finds momentum ahead of earnings. Maybe it will require a blowout report to send it higher. Either way, let’s keep an eye on $590 as our tell.</p><p><blockquote>也许该股在盈利之前找到了动力。也许需要一份井喷报告才能把它推高。不管怎样，让我们继续关注 590 美元的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Set for a Massive Breakout?<blockquote>英伟达是否即将迎来大规模突破？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Set for a Massive Breakout?<blockquote>英伟达是否即将迎来大规模突破？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-10 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia has been consolidating for months now, boring traders in the process. Is the chip giant finally waking up?</p><p><blockquote>英伟达已经整合了几个月，在这个过程中让交易员感到厌烦。芯片巨头终于醒悟了吗？</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>) have frustrated bullish traders for months now. That is until this week’s powerful move.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股票（<b>NVDA</b>）几个月来一直让看涨的交易者感到沮丧。直到本周的强有力举动。</blockquote></p><p>The stock burst higher by more than 6% on Monday on news of acontinued chip shortage. Shares were down less than 1% on Tuesday as bulls maintain a bulk of the gains.</p><p><blockquote>受芯片持续短缺的消息影响，该股周一飙升超过 6%。由于多头维持了大部分涨幅，周二股价下跌不到 1%。</blockquote></p><p>Trading in this name has been difficult, full of false breakouts and breakdowns as Nvidia has been consolidating its large gains. Advanced Micro Devices&nbsp;(<b>AMD</b>)&nbsp;hashad similar action.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达一直在巩固其巨大收益，以这个名义进行交易一直很困难，充满了虚假的突破和崩溃。先进微器件（<b>AMD</b>)hashad类似的动作。</blockquote></p><p>For traders, this is frustrating. For investors, a&nbsp;large rally followed by sideways price action&nbsp;is essentially the best outcome they could have hoped for. Eventually though, they too want to see a breakout to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>对于交易者来说，这是令人沮丧的。对于投资者来说，大幅上涨后价格横盘走势基本上是他们所能希望的最好结果。但最终，他们也希望看到上行的突破。</blockquote></p><p>With earnings due up later this month, are we on the verge of more gains?</p><p><blockquote>随着本月晚些时候财报公布，我们是否即将获得更多收益？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc7ee3828c12f14369269c5fd410c48\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nvidia finally broke out to new highs in February 2020, only to see the stock market roll over just a few days later. But amid that abrupt decline, notice how well Nvidia held up, virtually halting its decline at the 200-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达终于在2020年2月突破新高，几天后股市就翻盘了。但在突然下跌的情况下，请注意 Nvidia 的表现有多好，几乎止住了 200 日移动平均线的跌势。</blockquote></p><p>It went on a tear after that, rallying from sub-$200 to almost $600 in September.</p><p><blockquote>此后价格一路飙升，9 月份从不到 200 美元反弹至近 600 美元。</blockquote></p><p>After a sharp correction, we’ve seen the stock go nowhere for the last five months as it chops sideways.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了大幅调整之后，我们看到该股在过去五个月里一蹶不振，一直在横盘整理。</blockquote></p><p>Monday’s rally over $560 put the stock over last month’s high. There is a level of downtrend resistance potentially in play (blue line), but I’m not ready to put a lot of weight in this mark.</p><p><blockquote>周一超过 560 美元的反弹使该股超过了上个月的高点。可能存在一定程度的下降趋势阻力（蓝线），但我还没有准备好过多关注这个关口。</blockquote></p><p>Instead, I am keeping my eye on the $590 level and the $560 level — the latter of which was the monthly-up trigger.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我密切关注 590 美元水平和 560 美元水平——后者是每月上涨的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p>To lose $560 puts Nvidia back in the chop zone, potentially putting $500 back in play but most likely leaving it there to trade between $520 and $550.</p><p><blockquote>亏损 560 美元将使 Nvidia 重新回到 chop 区域，可能会让 500 美元重新发挥作用，但很可能会使其交易价格在 520 美元至 550 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>If it can clear $590 — which was the high in September and resistance in November — then perhaps we can get a much larger move to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能够突破 590 美元（这是 9 月份的高点和 11 月份的阻力位），那么也许我们可以获得更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p>Specifically, if Nvidia clears $600, investors may begin looking as high as the $660s for a potential upside target. In that area, the stock will find the 161.8% extension from the recent range.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，如果英伟达突破 600 美元，投资者可能会开始寻找高达 660 美元的潜在上涨目标。在该领域，该股将比最近的区间上涨 161.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps the stock finds momentum ahead of earnings. Maybe it will require a blowout report to send it higher. Either way, let’s keep an eye on $590 as our tell.</p><p><blockquote>也许该股在盈利之前找到了动力。也许需要一份井喷报告才能把它推高。不管怎样，让我们继续关注 590 美元的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-stock-breakout-trading-020921\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-stock-breakout-trading-020921","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127674073","content_text":"Nvidia has been consolidating for months now, boring traders in the process. Is the chip giant finally waking up?Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) have frustrated bullish traders for months now. That is until this week’s powerful move.The stock burst higher by more than 6% on Monday on news of acontinued chip shortage. Shares were down less than 1% on Tuesday as bulls maintain a bulk of the gains.Trading in this name has been difficult, full of false breakouts and breakdowns as Nvidia has been consolidating its large gains. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) hashad similar action.For traders, this is frustrating. For investors, a large rally followed by sideways price action is essentially the best outcome they could have hoped for. Eventually though, they too want to see a breakout to the upside.With earnings due up later this month, are we on the verge of more gains?Daily chart of Nvidia stock.Nvidia finally broke out to new highs in February 2020, only to see the stock market roll over just a few days later. But amid that abrupt decline, notice how well Nvidia held up, virtually halting its decline at the 200-day moving average.It went on a tear after that, rallying from sub-$200 to almost $600 in September.After a sharp correction, we’ve seen the stock go nowhere for the last five months as it chops sideways.Monday’s rally over $560 put the stock over last month’s high. There is a level of downtrend resistance potentially in play (blue line), but I’m not ready to put a lot of weight in this mark.Instead, I am keeping my eye on the $590 level and the $560 level — the latter of which was the monthly-up trigger.To lose $560 puts Nvidia back in the chop zone, potentially putting $500 back in play but most likely leaving it there to trade between $520 and $550.If it can clear $590 — which was the high in September and resistance in November — then perhaps we can get a much larger move to the upside.Specifically, if Nvidia clears $600, investors may begin looking as high as the $660s for a potential upside target. In that area, the stock will find the 161.8% extension from the recent range.Perhaps the stock finds momentum ahead of earnings. Maybe it will require a blowout report to send it higher. Either way, let’s keep an eye on $590 as our tell.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382124814,"gmtCreate":1613392196138,"gmtModify":1631891762077,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382124814","repostId":"1117067138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389645703,"gmtCreate":1612773129902,"gmtModify":1703764787149,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389645703","repostId":"389859301","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":389859301,"gmtCreate":1612753376703,"gmtModify":1703764622750,"author":{"id":"3503452965237041","authorId":"3503452965237041","name":"财报研究社pro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a6be2bd8feb8dbc30c5eaa2e715bb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503452965237041","authorIdStr":"3503452965237041"},"themes":[],"title":"Clubhouse引爆音频社交，荔枝加持Tiya有望扭转估值偏见？","htmlText":"2021年一开年，美股散户与华尔街空头之间上演了一场“世纪逼空大战”。除了这场世纪大战吸引全球投资者的关注之外，一款音频社交产品Clubhouse横空出世杀出重围。除了在北美受追捧之外，这把火还跨越太平洋，烧到亚洲。在闲鱼上，Clubhouse的邀请码价格最高炒到了999元。不仅如此，Clubhouse还带火了音频社交概念股，包括国内的荔枝、映客等股价迎来大幅上涨。在全球范围内，从产品、市场、规模等各个维度上，与Clubhouse比肩PK的是另一款同样主打欧美市场的语音社交应用：Tiya。据悉，Tiya是去年10月荔枝在美国上线的一款语音社交产品，目前已经在不少国家上线。近几年，国内互联网企业出海更积极主动，不少泛娱乐产品在海外市场获得用户跟商业价值的双增长。在全球语音社交领域，国内产品出海如何才能站稳脚跟？当下，越来越多中概股前仆后继加入出海队伍，我们该如何客观看待这对互联网企业带来的价值？Clubhouse全球出圈大火，引爆音频社交概念股有业内人士分析Clubhouse走红的原因，除了疫情时期填补用户的语音社交需求，在产品设计上有两个特点：一是“邀请制”导致社交链紧密，社群氛围较好；二是产品页面简单不复杂、设计好、体验流畅。Clubhouse大热背后也带来一些连锁反应。一方面是带动国内语音社交公司荔枝、映客等股价迎来较大涨幅。自上周一启动上涨攻势以来，荔枝股价自1月29日收盘价3.3美元一路暴涨，至上周五收盘价为11.40美元，虽然有所回调，但上周已累涨超240%。除了带动语音社交概念股股价上的涨势，另一方面全球不少语音产品Tiya、Yala也受到更多用户关注，尤其是Clubhouse在欧美市场的主要竞争对手Tiya。据悉Tiya是荔枝出海的项目之一，于去年11月起与休闲游戏的深度结合，引爆美国市场，刷新全球的产品排行榜。在App Store跟 Google Play上","listText":"2021年一开年，美股散户与华尔街空头之间上演了一场“世纪逼空大战”。除了这场世纪大战吸引全球投资者的关注之外，一款音频社交产品Clubhouse横空出世杀出重围。除了在北美受追捧之外，这把火还跨越太平洋，烧到亚洲。在闲鱼上，Clubhouse的邀请码价格最高炒到了999元。不仅如此，Clubhouse还带火了音频社交概念股，包括国内的荔枝、映客等股价迎来大幅上涨。在全球范围内，从产品、市场、规模等各个维度上，与Clubhouse比肩PK的是另一款同样主打欧美市场的语音社交应用：Tiya。据悉，Tiya是去年10月荔枝在美国上线的一款语音社交产品，目前已经在不少国家上线。近几年，国内互联网企业出海更积极主动，不少泛娱乐产品在海外市场获得用户跟商业价值的双增长。在全球语音社交领域，国内产品出海如何才能站稳脚跟？当下，越来越多中概股前仆后继加入出海队伍，我们该如何客观看待这对互联网企业带来的价值？Clubhouse全球出圈大火，引爆音频社交概念股有业内人士分析Clubhouse走红的原因，除了疫情时期填补用户的语音社交需求，在产品设计上有两个特点：一是“邀请制”导致社交链紧密，社群氛围较好；二是产品页面简单不复杂、设计好、体验流畅。Clubhouse大热背后也带来一些连锁反应。一方面是带动国内语音社交公司荔枝、映客等股价迎来较大涨幅。自上周一启动上涨攻势以来，荔枝股价自1月29日收盘价3.3美元一路暴涨，至上周五收盘价为11.40美元，虽然有所回调，但上周已累涨超240%。除了带动语音社交概念股股价上的涨势，另一方面全球不少语音产品Tiya、Yala也受到更多用户关注，尤其是Clubhouse在欧美市场的主要竞争对手Tiya。据悉Tiya是荔枝出海的项目之一，于去年11月起与休闲游戏的深度结合，引爆美国市场，刷新全球的产品排行榜。在App Store跟 Google Play上","text":"2021年一开年，美股散户与华尔街空头之间上演了一场“世纪逼空大战”。除了这场世纪大战吸引全球投资者的关注之外，一款音频社交产品Clubhouse横空出世杀出重围。除了在北美受追捧之外，这把火还跨越太平洋，烧到亚洲。在闲鱼上，Clubhouse的邀请码价格最高炒到了999元。不仅如此，Clubhouse还带火了音频社交概念股，包括国内的荔枝、映客等股价迎来大幅上涨。在全球范围内，从产品、市场、规模等各个维度上，与Clubhouse比肩PK的是另一款同样主打欧美市场的语音社交应用：Tiya。据悉，Tiya是去年10月荔枝在美国上线的一款语音社交产品，目前已经在不少国家上线。近几年，国内互联网企业出海更积极主动，不少泛娱乐产品在海外市场获得用户跟商业价值的双增长。在全球语音社交领域，国内产品出海如何才能站稳脚跟？当下，越来越多中概股前仆后继加入出海队伍，我们该如何客观看待这对互联网企业带来的价值？Clubhouse全球出圈大火，引爆音频社交概念股有业内人士分析Clubhouse走红的原因，除了疫情时期填补用户的语音社交需求，在产品设计上有两个特点：一是“邀请制”导致社交链紧密，社群氛围较好；二是产品页面简单不复杂、设计好、体验流畅。Clubhouse大热背后也带来一些连锁反应。一方面是带动国内语音社交公司荔枝、映客等股价迎来较大涨幅。自上周一启动上涨攻势以来，荔枝股价自1月29日收盘价3.3美元一路暴涨，至上周五收盘价为11.40美元，虽然有所回调，但上周已累涨超240%。除了带动语音社交概念股股价上的涨势，另一方面全球不少语音产品Tiya、Yala也受到更多用户关注，尤其是Clubhouse在欧美市场的主要竞争对手Tiya。据悉Tiya是荔枝出海的项目之一，于去年11月起与休闲游戏的深度结合，引爆美国市场，刷新全球的产品排行榜。在App Store跟 Google 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started&nbsp;","listText":"Just started&nbsp;","text":"Just started","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319680308","repostId":"2106641072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319680921,"gmtCreate":1611577828163,"gmtModify":1703751113220,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just started...&nbsp;","listText":"Just started...&nbsp;","text":"Just started...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319680921","repostId":"2106641072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319056223,"gmtCreate":1611449626862,"gmtModify":1703750462784,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554926953596454","authorIdStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy or sell??&nbsp;","listText":"Buy or sell??&nbsp;","text":"Buy or sell??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319056223","repostId":"2105464425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":181549505,"gmtCreate":1623403607307,"gmtModify":1631891761992,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;long term stock&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;long term stock&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ long term stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181549505","repostId":"1113838701","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113838701","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623403425,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113838701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value<blockquote>Palantir：稀释调整值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113838701","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.It has a powerful A.I.  technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.Founded in 2003, Palantir  started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.</li>  <li>It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.</li>  <li>I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.</li> </ul> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。</li><li>它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。</li><li>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元。</li></ul><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 成立于 2003 年，开始为情报界构建软件平台，后来扩展到商业领域。为此，已经开发了两个主要的软件平台，Palantir Gotham和Palantir Foundry。两者都充当中央操作系统，使客户能够集成他们的数据和操作。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Gotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).</li>  <li>Foundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.</li>  <li>Apollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.</li> </ol> The company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>哥谭是一个主要为国防和情报机构的分析师构建的平台。Gotham使用户能够识别隐藏在数据集深处的模式，从信号情报来源到机密线人的报告。Gotham平台也可供商业客户使用（例如，金融服务行业在欺诈调查中使用）。</li><li>Foundry是组织（例如空中客车公司（OTCPK：EADSF））用来管理复杂项目中涉及的大量数据的平台。它通过为组织的数据创建一个中央操作系统来改变组织的运营方式。个人用户可以在一个地方集成和分析他们需要的数据。用户实验和测试新想法的速度是该软件坚持下去的原因。</li><li>Apollo是一款交付软件，为Foundry和Gotham平台提供支持，并使它们能够在任何环境中运行。Apollo的目标是在不中断运营的情况下，将最新的功能提供到客户手中。</li></ol>该公司在全球开展业务，尤其是在美国、英国、法国和世界其他地区。下面我显示了按细分市场和地理位置划分的收入明细。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d03eb66b96b4d77da5936226da87d10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).</p><p><blockquote>使用过去 12 个月的数据，我们可以看到政府部门占 Palantir 总收入的 58%（2018 年为 42%），而商业部门占 48%（2018 年为 57%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"</p><p><blockquote>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元（当前价格为每股 24.38 美元）。众所周知，贴现现金流模型是评估公司公允价值的宝贵工具，然而，为了能够实施它，我们需要做出很多假设。我们必须做出的假设之一是关于公司未来的增长。但我们如何评估公司未来的增长呢？我们有不同的方法来实现这一点，但其中任何一种都是“唯一的”。</blockquote></p><p> Usually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.</p><p><blockquote>通常，我们要采取的第一步是评估公司是否拥有可持续的经济护城河。可持续的经济护城河是区分领导者和落后者的关键，它告诉我们应该对股票要求什么样的安全边际。没有经济护城河意味着更高的安全边际。评估一家公司是否有一种不同的方法并不是一件容易的事情。在这种情况下，我想通过分析公司的自由现金流、利润率和股本回报率来实现这一点。下面，我展示了我们需要的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3592c45dd11931534a65c171b42df2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> From the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.</p><p><blockquote>从上面显示的数字中，你可以立即指出事情没有朝着正确的方向发展。毛利率（或生产盈利能力）很好，等于69.9% 2021TTM，然而，营业利润率一点也不好，等于-101.1%（我们可以从净利润率观察到同样的情况）。事实上，如果我们把运营费用看作收入的百分比，我们可以发现这个数字等于171%。下面我显示结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb6af16f471180179056796c4f30820d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Next, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，正如我们从这些数字中可以预期的那样，净资产收益率是一个负数。负净资产收益率告诉我们，该公司正在破坏股东的价值。自由现金流保证金呢？我们可以观察到或多或少与营业利润率相同的模式。此外，通过更深入地研究现金流量表，我们可以发现一个非常明显的模式——公司通过每年发行更多股票来带来现金。当查看公司现金流量表时，我们发现公司现金流的主要来源不是经营活动的现金流，这通常被视为一个危险信号。总体而言，这些指标中的任何一个似乎都表明一家公司拥有可持续的经济护城河。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe7d504567011f28eb91b3e31fe1cd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> In the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.</p><p><blockquote>在贴现现金流模型中，我使用过去12个月的数字作为基准年数字。对于营收（收入），我假设明年的增长率为 49%，符合当前的收入增长模式和新的机会。对于Y2-Y5，我假设CAGR为30%，这是我认为合理的增长率。我允许公司以 1.02 的销售资本比率（与同行相比的第 90 个百分位数）和 6.9% 的当前 WACC 增长。</blockquote></p><p> I assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.</p><p><blockquote>我假设明年的营业利润率为-67%，目标营业利润率为31.2%（与同行相比为第85个百分位）。如果您想知道我曾经做出假设的同行是谁，那么，这些公司是 Alteryx (AYX)、微软 (MSFT)、甲骨文 (ORCL)、Datadog (DDOG) 等公司。</blockquote></p><p> A lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者似乎相信 Palantir 具有隐藏的价值，他们做出不切实际的假设来证明他们的发现是合理的。即使可能有，稀释效应也阻止了股票走高。投资者似乎不明白这一点，该公司乘风破浪，以不合理的价格发行更多股票。</blockquote></p><p> The central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在我的敏感性分析中看到的中心价值（7.34美元/股）是我使用DCF模型发现的公允价值，而绿色区域的价格是可能合理的价格（即使很难假设如此高的CAGR，也许是不现实的）。敏感性分析故意向右倾斜，因为房间里的多头多于空头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689c747c7d01668b6d6978063ee0ce3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的假设，我发现根据DCF模型，该公司的公允价值为7.34美元/股。现在你可能会说，这不是我一开始陈述的公允价值。完全正确，你抓到我了。我分配给公司的公允价值等于14.45美元/股，这是一个基于算法的估计，考虑了不同的因素，包括：基于DCF的公允价值、动量等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。该公司似乎明白这一点，并通过稀释股东权益来乘风破浪。我不喜欢看到公司这样的举动，即使公司可能会提供一些价格升值，风险也不值得赌（除非你喜欢赌博，不是吗？）.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value<blockquote>Palantir：稀释调整值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value<blockquote>Palantir：稀释调整值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.</li>  <li>It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.</li>  <li>I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.</li> </ul> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。</li><li>它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。</li><li>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元。</li></ul><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 成立于 2003 年，开始为情报界构建软件平台，后来扩展到商业领域。为此，已经开发了两个主要的软件平台，Palantir Gotham和Palantir Foundry。两者都充当中央操作系统，使客户能够集成他们的数据和操作。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Gotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).</li>  <li>Foundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.</li>  <li>Apollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.</li> </ol> The company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>哥谭是一个主要为国防和情报机构的分析师构建的平台。Gotham使用户能够识别隐藏在数据集深处的模式，从信号情报来源到机密线人的报告。Gotham平台也可供商业客户使用（例如，金融服务行业在欺诈调查中使用）。</li><li>Foundry是组织（例如空中客车公司（OTCPK：EADSF））用来管理复杂项目中涉及的大量数据的平台。它通过为组织的数据创建一个中央操作系统来改变组织的运营方式。个人用户可以在一个地方集成和分析他们需要的数据。用户实验和测试新想法的速度是该软件坚持下去的原因。</li><li>Apollo是一款交付软件，为Foundry和Gotham平台提供支持，并使它们能够在任何环境中运行。Apollo的目标是在不中断运营的情况下，将最新的功能提供到客户手中。</li></ol>该公司在全球开展业务，尤其是在美国、英国、法国和世界其他地区。下面我显示了按细分市场和地理位置划分的收入明细。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d03eb66b96b4d77da5936226da87d10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).</p><p><blockquote>使用过去 12 个月的数据，我们可以看到政府部门占 Palantir 总收入的 58%（2018 年为 42%），而商业部门占 48%（2018 年为 57%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"</p><p><blockquote>我对 Palantir 给予看跌评级，公允价格为每股 14.45 美元（当前价格为每股 24.38 美元）。众所周知，贴现现金流模型是评估公司公允价值的宝贵工具，然而，为了能够实施它，我们需要做出很多假设。我们必须做出的假设之一是关于公司未来的增长。但我们如何评估公司未来的增长呢？我们有不同的方法来实现这一点，但其中任何一种都是“唯一的”。</blockquote></p><p> Usually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.</p><p><blockquote>通常，我们要采取的第一步是评估公司是否拥有可持续的经济护城河。可持续的经济护城河是区分领导者和落后者的关键，它告诉我们应该对股票要求什么样的安全边际。没有经济护城河意味着更高的安全边际。评估一家公司是否有一种不同的方法并不是一件容易的事情。在这种情况下，我想通过分析公司的自由现金流、利润率和股本回报率来实现这一点。下面，我展示了我们需要的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3592c45dd11931534a65c171b42df2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> From the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.</p><p><blockquote>从上面显示的数字中，你可以立即指出事情没有朝着正确的方向发展。毛利率（或生产盈利能力）很好，等于69.9% 2021TTM，然而，营业利润率一点也不好，等于-101.1%（我们可以从净利润率观察到同样的情况）。事实上，如果我们把运营费用看作收入的百分比，我们可以发现这个数字等于171%。下面我显示结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb6af16f471180179056796c4f30820d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Next, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，正如我们从这些数字中可以预期的那样，净资产收益率是一个负数。负净资产收益率告诉我们，该公司正在破坏股东的价值。自由现金流保证金呢？我们可以观察到或多或少与营业利润率相同的模式。此外，通过更深入地研究现金流量表，我们可以发现一个非常明显的模式——公司通过每年发行更多股票来带来现金。当查看公司现金流量表时，我们发现公司现金流的主要来源不是经营活动的现金流，这通常被视为一个危险信号。总体而言，这些指标中的任何一个似乎都表明一家公司拥有可持续的经济护城河。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe7d504567011f28eb91b3e31fe1cd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> In the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.</p><p><blockquote>在贴现现金流模型中，我使用过去12个月的数字作为基准年数字。对于营收（收入），我假设明年的增长率为 49%，符合当前的收入增长模式和新的机会。对于Y2-Y5，我假设CAGR为30%，这是我认为合理的增长率。我允许公司以 1.02 的销售资本比率（与同行相比的第 90 个百分位数）和 6.9% 的当前 WACC 增长。</blockquote></p><p> I assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.</p><p><blockquote>我假设明年的营业利润率为-67%，目标营业利润率为31.2%（与同行相比为第85个百分位）。如果您想知道我曾经做出假设的同行是谁，那么，这些公司是 Alteryx (AYX)、微软 (MSFT)、甲骨文 (ORCL)、Datadog (DDOG) 等公司。</blockquote></p><p> A lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者似乎相信 Palantir 具有隐藏的价值，他们做出不切实际的假设来证明他们的发现是合理的。即使可能有，稀释效应也阻止了股票走高。投资者似乎不明白这一点，该公司乘风破浪，以不合理的价格发行更多股票。</blockquote></p><p> The central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在我的敏感性分析中看到的中心价值（7.34美元/股）是我使用DCF模型发现的公允价值，而绿色区域的价格是可能合理的价格（即使很难假设如此高的CAGR，也许是不现实的）。敏感性分析故意向右倾斜，因为房间里的多头多于空头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689c747c7d01668b6d6978063ee0ce3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p><p><blockquote>来源：<i>作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</i></blockquote></p><p> Using my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的假设，我发现根据DCF模型，该公司的公允价值为7.34美元/股。现在你可能会说，这不是我一开始陈述的公允价值。完全正确，你抓到我了。我分配给公司的公允价值等于14.45美元/股，这是一个基于算法的估计，考虑了不同的因素，包括：基于DCF的公允价值、动量等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一家高增长的公司，在全球商业和政府领域都有业务。它拥有强大的人工智能（认知计算）技术，然而，拥有人工智能似乎已成为证明估值飙升的流行语。该公司似乎明白这一点，并通过稀释股东权益来乘风破浪。我不喜欢看到公司这样的举动，即使公司可能会提供一些价格升值，风险也不值得赌（除非你喜欢赌博，不是吗？）.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434192-palantir-a-dilution-adjusted-value\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434192-palantir-a-dilution-adjusted-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113838701","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.\nIt has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.\nI initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.\n\nCompany Overview\nFounded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.\n\nGotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).\nFoundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.\nApollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.\n\nThe company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nUsing the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"\nUsually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nFrom the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.\n\nSourceAuthor's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNext, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.\nI assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.\nA lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.\nThe central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nUsing my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114661216,"gmtCreate":1623072915235,"gmtModify":1631891762004,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crazy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>","listText":"Crazy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>","text":"Crazy$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114661216","repostId":"2141286115","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":877727711,"gmtCreate":1637988276368,"gmtModify":1637988276428,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877727711","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350493810,"gmtCreate":1616246763830,"gmtModify":1631884711216,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$$Qualcomm(QCOM)$[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350493810","repostId":"2120714838","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385530048,"gmtCreate":1613561697084,"gmtModify":1631891762045,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385530048","repostId":"1153738409","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198489031,"gmtCreate":1620980360723,"gmtModify":1631884479184,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"New trend&nbsp;","listText":"New trend&nbsp;","text":"New trend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198489031","repostId":"198413221","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":198413221,"gmtCreate":1620979737863,"gmtModify":1782193620911,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"时代财富观察","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22fad1649443d817dea3cbc957a1314","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3497328009582754","idStr":"3497328009582754"},"themes":[],"title":"通胀、暴跌、利率…极端情绪指标回顾，新兴市场该抄底吗？","htmlText":"贝瑞研究分析师&nbsp;Steve Sjuggerud简介：荣获金融专业博士学位，拥有30年金融从业经验，于2001年加入贝瑞研究母公司Stansberry Research，前纽约共同/对冲基金经理，其公开业绩医疗行业投资组合收益419%，科技行业投资组合收益133%，生物科技投资组合收益96%。贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨投资见解。经过昨天的惊魂之后，今天美股走高，一定程度上表明，投资者们消化了通胀数据。从4月份的生产者物价指数（PPI）来看，其环比同比均高于预期，因此形势之下可能会迫使美联储的升利率举措。但相反，市场上涨了，很可能是因为美联储强调通货膨胀是暂时的。而今天的就业数据也很好，失业救济人数连续2周触及疫情以来的低点。自2020年3月27日当周达到687万峰值以来，失业人数数据一直在稳步下降。上周他们跌至47.3万的低点。现在，四周移动平均线为53.4万，而上周是56万。所以从趋势看下来，我们会看到失业数据继续走低。在华尔街分析师和交易员眼中，失业人数下降表明经济正在恢复正常，这支持美联储和国会撤回刺激措施的理由。如果经济要进一步反弹，就业机会将成为重要的组成部分。服务业受到的打击最大，居家隔离对餐厅、酒店和餐旅活动企业的影响最大。因此，复苏进程至关重要。如果我们看到失业救济人数回落到去年的平均21万，那将是经济活动正在加速的另一个信号，这可能会刺激股市进一步上涨。说到复苏情况，在疫情期间遭受重创的新兴市场仍在挣扎。图源网络 版权属于原作者新兴市场在过去一年多的时间里涨了80%，但是投资者依旧非常害怕入场。可以看到，从2020年3月份开始，疫情恶化，新兴市场闪跌34%。现在一年过去了，投资者对新兴市场的厌恶仍不见好转… 仍处于观望状态。那随着疫情的好转与经济逐渐复苏，这样的新兴市场机会值得把","listText":"贝瑞研究分析师&nbsp;Steve Sjuggerud简介：荣获金融专业博士学位，拥有30年金融从业经验，于2001年加入贝瑞研究母公司Stansberry Research，前纽约共同/对冲基金经理，其公开业绩医疗行业投资组合收益419%，科技行业投资组合收益133%，生物科技投资组合收益96%。贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨投资见解。经过昨天的惊魂之后，今天美股走高，一定程度上表明，投资者们消化了通胀数据。从4月份的生产者物价指数（PPI）来看，其环比同比均高于预期，因此形势之下可能会迫使美联储的升利率举措。但相反，市场上涨了，很可能是因为美联储强调通货膨胀是暂时的。而今天的就业数据也很好，失业救济人数连续2周触及疫情以来的低点。自2020年3月27日当周达到687万峰值以来，失业人数数据一直在稳步下降。上周他们跌至47.3万的低点。现在，四周移动平均线为53.4万，而上周是56万。所以从趋势看下来，我们会看到失业数据继续走低。在华尔街分析师和交易员眼中，失业人数下降表明经济正在恢复正常，这支持美联储和国会撤回刺激措施的理由。如果经济要进一步反弹，就业机会将成为重要的组成部分。服务业受到的打击最大，居家隔离对餐厅、酒店和餐旅活动企业的影响最大。因此，复苏进程至关重要。如果我们看到失业救济人数回落到去年的平均21万，那将是经济活动正在加速的另一个信号，这可能会刺激股市进一步上涨。说到复苏情况，在疫情期间遭受重创的新兴市场仍在挣扎。图源网络 版权属于原作者新兴市场在过去一年多的时间里涨了80%，但是投资者依旧非常害怕入场。可以看到，从2020年3月份开始，疫情恶化，新兴市场闪跌34%。现在一年过去了，投资者对新兴市场的厌恶仍不见好转… 仍处于观望状态。那随着疫情的好转与经济逐渐复苏，这样的新兴市场机会值得把","text":"贝瑞研究分析师 Steve Sjuggerud简介：荣获金融专业博士学位，拥有30年金融从业经验，于2001年加入贝瑞研究母公司Stansberry Research，前纽约共同/对冲基金经理，其公开业绩医疗行业投资组合收益419%，科技行业投资组合收益133%，生物科技投资组合收益96%。贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨投资见解。经过昨天的惊魂之后，今天美股走高，一定程度上表明，投资者们消化了通胀数据。从4月份的生产者物价指数（PPI）来看，其环比同比均高于预期，因此形势之下可能会迫使美联储的升利率举措。但相反，市场上涨了，很可能是因为美联储强调通货膨胀是暂时的。而今天的就业数据也很好，失业救济人数连续2周触及疫情以来的低点。自2020年3月27日当周达到687万峰值以来，失业人数数据一直在稳步下降。上周他们跌至47.3万的低点。现在，四周移动平均线为53.4万，而上周是56万。所以从趋势看下来，我们会看到失业数据继续走低。在华尔街分析师和交易员眼中，失业人数下降表明经济正在恢复正常，这支持美联储和国会撤回刺激措施的理由。如果经济要进一步反弹，就业机会将成为重要的组成部分。服务业受到的打击最大，居家隔离对餐厅、酒店和餐旅活动企业的影响最大。因此，复苏进程至关重要。如果我们看到失业救济人数回落到去年的平均21万，那将是经济活动正在加速的另一个信号，这可能会刺激股市进一步上涨。说到复苏情况，在疫情期间遭受重创的新兴市场仍在挣扎。图源网络 版权属于原作者新兴市场在过去一年多的时间里涨了80%，但是投资者依旧非常害怕入场。可以看到，从2020年3月份开始，疫情恶化，新兴市场闪跌34%。现在一年过去了，投资者对新兴市场的厌恶仍不见好转… 仍处于观望状态。那随着疫情的好转与经济逐渐复苏，这样的新兴市场机会值得把","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e281b0772a4e9d43faa2f8bf601cf1c","width":"714","height":"534"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198413221","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321811334,"gmtCreate":1615421356028,"gmtModify":1703488767802,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Roblox&nbsp;","listText":"Roblox&nbsp;","text":"Roblox","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321811334","repostId":"1158871795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158871795","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615401200,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158871795?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 02:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox spikes 44% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Roblox 首日交易飙升 44%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158871795","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.Ro","content":"<p>Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 股价周三开盘价为每股 65 美元，比公司参考价高出约 44%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ba476c7f20db1e462a62e6f1df9db8\" tg-width=\"1847\" tg-height=\"904\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Roblox Corp.  joins the ranks of closely held companies turning to public markets to support growth. The San Mateo, Calif.-based videogame provider’s stock will begin trading March 10 on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RBLX. The shares are trading through a direct listing, bypassing the traditional route of an initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox Corp. 加入了少数控股公司转向公开市场以支持增长的行列。这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣马特奥的视频游戏提供商的股票将于 3 月 10 日在纽约证券交易所开始交易，股票代码为 RBLX。这些股票通过直接上市进行交易，绕过了首次公开募股的传统途径。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s reference price was set at $45, in lieu of a formal IPO price, and is based on recent private-market transactions.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的参考价定为 45 美元，而不是正式的 IPO 价格，是根据最近的私人市场交易得出的。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox&nbsp;isn’t a traditional videogame company&nbsp;and is using a nontraditional process to potentially reach investors as the pandemic&nbsp;has driven people to spend more time and money on gameplay. Here’s what you need to know about the company and its plans for a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 并不是一家传统的视频游戏公司，由于大流行病促使人们在游戏上花费更多时间和金钱，它正在使用一种非传统的流程来接触潜在的投资者。以下是您需要了解的有关该公司及其直接上市计划的信息。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox said in the latest update to its&nbsp;prospectus&nbsp;that it paid developers $328.7 million last year, up almost 200% from 2019. That far outpaced the company’s sales growth of 82% last year, when it booked $923.9 million in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 在最新更新的招股说明书中表示，去年向开发者支付了 3.287 亿美元，比 2019 年增长了近 200%。这远远超过了该公司去年 82% 的销售额增长率，当时该公司的总收入为 9.239 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>More than 1,250 developers earned at least $10,000 in the digital currency Robux, which can be converted to cash. Over 300 earned $100,000 or more.</p><p><blockquote>超过1250名开发者在数字货币Robux中赚取了至少1万美元，可以兑换成现金。超过300人的收入达到或超过10万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox is telling prospective shareholders to get comfortable with its hefty payouts. In its&nbsp;investor presentationlast week, the company said it plans to shell out even more to creators to incentive higher-quality content and fund bigger teams of engineers, designers, artists and producers.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 告诉潜在股东对其巨额派息感到满意。该公司在上周的投资者演示中表示，计划向创作者支付更多费用，以激励更高质量的内容，并为更大的工程师、设计师、艺术家和制片人团队提供资金。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is Roblox?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是Roblox？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is a free online platform that features tens of millions of multiplayer games made by its own players with tools the company provides. The games range from obstacle-course challenges and iterations of capture the flag to contests based on popular characters such as Peppa Pig and Sonic the Hedgehog. Company officials have said they are interested in increasing the use of Roblox for things such as virtual concerts and meetings.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox是一个免费的在线平台，拥有数千万个由自己的玩家使用公司提供的工具制作的多人游戏。游戏范围从障碍赛挑战和夺旗迭代到基于小猪佩奇和刺猬索尼克等流行角色的比赛。公司官员表示，他们有兴趣增加在虚拟音乐会和会议等活动中使用Roblox。</blockquote></p><p><b>Who plays Roblox and how?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁玩Roblox，怎么玩？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is accessible on computers, consoles and mobile devices. The company said it had roughly 33 million daily users last year, of whom more than half are under the age of 13. Players in Roblox appear in the form of customizable avatars.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox可以在电脑、控制台和移动设备上访问。该公司表示，去年每天约有 3300 万用户，其中一半以上年龄在 13 岁以下。Roblox中的玩家以可定制头像的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p><b>Roblox’s Covid boom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Roblox 的新冠疫情热潮</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox has been a huge beneficiary of the Covid-19 shutdowns, which forced kids out of the classroom and away from their friends. With no school to attend and birthday parties canceled,kids turned to Roblox, where they can socialize virtually, navigating theme parks, attending concerts and playing action games while also staying in touch using its popular text chat feature.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 是 Covid-19 关闭的巨大受益者，这迫使孩子们离开教室，远离他们的朋友。由于没有学校可以上学，生日派对也被取消，孩子们转向了Roblox，在那里他们可以进行虚拟社交，浏览主题公园，参加音乐会和玩动作游戏，同时还可以使用其流行的文本聊天功能保持联系。</blockquote></p><p>Daily active users jumped 85% in 2020 to 32.6 million. The number of hours that players spent on the app more than doubled to 30.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，日活跃用户跃升85%，达到3260万。玩家在该应用上花费的小时数增加了一倍多，达到306亿。</blockquote></p><p>That unexpected and unprecedented growth has created some challenges around its developer community. The company has had to contend with an influx ofspammers&nbsp;and&nbsp;scammers&nbsp;who are out to take advantage of some of the millions of kids who are ready and willing to spend their parents money on Robux.</p><p><blockquote>这种意想不到和前所未有的增长给其开发者社区带来了一些挑战。该公司不得不应对大量垃圾邮件发送者和骗子的涌入，他们试图利用数百万准备并愿意在 Robux 上花父母钱的孩子。</blockquote></p><p>In-game pop-ups lure users with the promise of free Robux if they fill out a survey, only to reroute them to other sites where there’s no Robux and even more spam. In some cases, Roblox developers unknowingly install a malicious plug-in from the game development studio, infecting their own game.</p><p><blockquote>游戏中的弹出窗口以填写调查问卷即可获得免费 Robux 的承诺来吸引用户，结果却将他们重定向到其他没有 Robux 甚至垃圾邮件的网站。在某些情况下，Roblox开发者在不知情的情况下安装了游戏开发工作室的恶意插件，感染了他们自己的游戏。</blockquote></p><p>“Because of the popularity of our platform, we believe that we are an attractive target for these sorts of attacks,” Roblox said in its prospectus. The company said it’s investing to make sure outside parties can’t access user data and to prevent phishing, spamming and malware as much as possible.</p><p><blockquote>“Roblox 在招股说明书中说：”由于我们平台的受欢迎程度，我们相信我们是这类攻击的一个有吸引力的目标。该公司表示，它正在进行投资，以确保外部各方无法访问用户数据，并尽可能防止网络钓鱼、垃圾邮件和恶意软件。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s second-biggest expense, behind developer fees, is infrastructure, privacy and safety. Those costs jumped 69% last year to $264.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的第二大支出是基础设施、隐私和安全，仅次于开发者费用。这些成本去年跃升 69%，达到 2.642 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox spikes 44% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Roblox 首日交易飙升 44%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox spikes 44% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Roblox 首日交易飙升 44%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 02:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 股价周三开盘价为每股 65 美元，比公司参考价高出约 44%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ba476c7f20db1e462a62e6f1df9db8\" tg-width=\"1847\" tg-height=\"904\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Roblox Corp.  joins the ranks of closely held companies turning to public markets to support growth. The San Mateo, Calif.-based videogame provider’s stock will begin trading March 10 on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RBLX. The shares are trading through a direct listing, bypassing the traditional route of an initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox Corp. 加入了少数控股公司转向公开市场以支持增长的行列。这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣马特奥的视频游戏提供商的股票将于 3 月 10 日在纽约证券交易所开始交易，股票代码为 RBLX。这些股票通过直接上市进行交易，绕过了首次公开募股的传统途径。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s reference price was set at $45, in lieu of a formal IPO price, and is based on recent private-market transactions.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的参考价定为 45 美元，而不是正式的 IPO 价格，是根据最近的私人市场交易得出的。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox&nbsp;isn’t a traditional videogame company&nbsp;and is using a nontraditional process to potentially reach investors as the pandemic&nbsp;has driven people to spend more time and money on gameplay. Here’s what you need to know about the company and its plans for a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 并不是一家传统的视频游戏公司，由于大流行病促使人们在游戏上花费更多时间和金钱，它正在使用一种非传统的流程来接触潜在的投资者。以下是您需要了解的有关该公司及其直接上市计划的信息。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox said in the latest update to its&nbsp;prospectus&nbsp;that it paid developers $328.7 million last year, up almost 200% from 2019. That far outpaced the company’s sales growth of 82% last year, when it booked $923.9 million in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 在最新更新的招股说明书中表示，去年向开发者支付了 3.287 亿美元，比 2019 年增长了近 200%。这远远超过了该公司去年 82% 的销售额增长率，当时该公司的总收入为 9.239 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>More than 1,250 developers earned at least $10,000 in the digital currency Robux, which can be converted to cash. Over 300 earned $100,000 or more.</p><p><blockquote>超过1250名开发者在数字货币Robux中赚取了至少1万美元，可以兑换成现金。超过300人的收入达到或超过10万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox is telling prospective shareholders to get comfortable with its hefty payouts. In its&nbsp;investor presentationlast week, the company said it plans to shell out even more to creators to incentive higher-quality content and fund bigger teams of engineers, designers, artists and producers.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 告诉潜在股东对其巨额派息感到满意。该公司在上周的投资者演示中表示，计划向创作者支付更多费用，以激励更高质量的内容，并为更大的工程师、设计师、艺术家和制片人团队提供资金。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is Roblox?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是Roblox？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is a free online platform that features tens of millions of multiplayer games made by its own players with tools the company provides. The games range from obstacle-course challenges and iterations of capture the flag to contests based on popular characters such as Peppa Pig and Sonic the Hedgehog. Company officials have said they are interested in increasing the use of Roblox for things such as virtual concerts and meetings.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox是一个免费的在线平台，拥有数千万个由自己的玩家使用公司提供的工具制作的多人游戏。游戏范围从障碍赛挑战和夺旗迭代到基于小猪佩奇和刺猬索尼克等流行角色的比赛。公司官员表示，他们有兴趣增加在虚拟音乐会和会议等活动中使用Roblox。</blockquote></p><p><b>Who plays Roblox and how?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁玩Roblox，怎么玩？</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox is accessible on computers, consoles and mobile devices. The company said it had roughly 33 million daily users last year, of whom more than half are under the age of 13. Players in Roblox appear in the form of customizable avatars.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox可以在电脑、控制台和移动设备上访问。该公司表示，去年每天约有 3300 万用户，其中一半以上年龄在 13 岁以下。Roblox中的玩家以可定制头像的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p><b>Roblox’s Covid boom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Roblox 的新冠疫情热潮</b></blockquote></p><p>Roblox has been a huge beneficiary of the Covid-19 shutdowns, which forced kids out of the classroom and away from their friends. With no school to attend and birthday parties canceled,kids turned to Roblox, where they can socialize virtually, navigating theme parks, attending concerts and playing action games while also staying in touch using its popular text chat feature.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 是 Covid-19 关闭的巨大受益者，这迫使孩子们离开教室，远离他们的朋友。由于没有学校可以上学，生日派对也被取消，孩子们转向了Roblox，在那里他们可以进行虚拟社交，浏览主题公园，参加音乐会和玩动作游戏，同时还可以使用其流行的文本聊天功能保持联系。</blockquote></p><p>Daily active users jumped 85% in 2020 to 32.6 million. The number of hours that players spent on the app more than doubled to 30.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，日活跃用户跃升85%，达到3260万。玩家在该应用上花费的小时数增加了一倍多，达到306亿。</blockquote></p><p>That unexpected and unprecedented growth has created some challenges around its developer community. The company has had to contend with an influx ofspammers&nbsp;and&nbsp;scammers&nbsp;who are out to take advantage of some of the millions of kids who are ready and willing to spend their parents money on Robux.</p><p><blockquote>这种意想不到和前所未有的增长给其开发者社区带来了一些挑战。该公司不得不应对大量垃圾邮件发送者和骗子的涌入，他们试图利用数百万准备并愿意在 Robux 上花父母钱的孩子。</blockquote></p><p>In-game pop-ups lure users with the promise of free Robux if they fill out a survey, only to reroute them to other sites where there’s no Robux and even more spam. In some cases, Roblox developers unknowingly install a malicious plug-in from the game development studio, infecting their own game.</p><p><blockquote>游戏中的弹出窗口以填写调查问卷即可获得免费 Robux 的承诺来吸引用户，结果却将他们重定向到其他没有 Robux 甚至垃圾邮件的网站。在某些情况下，Roblox开发者在不知情的情况下安装了游戏开发工作室的恶意插件，感染了他们自己的游戏。</blockquote></p><p>“Because of the popularity of our platform, we believe that we are an attractive target for these sorts of attacks,” Roblox said in its prospectus. The company said it’s investing to make sure outside parties can’t access user data and to prevent phishing, spamming and malware as much as possible.</p><p><blockquote>“Roblox 在招股说明书中说：”由于我们平台的受欢迎程度，我们相信我们是这类攻击的一个有吸引力的目标。该公司表示，它正在进行投资，以确保外部各方无法访问用户数据，并尽可能防止网络钓鱼、垃圾邮件和恶意软件。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox’s second-biggest expense, behind developer fees, is infrastructure, privacy and safety. Those costs jumped 69% last year to $264.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox 的第二大支出是基础设施、隐私和安全，仅次于开发者费用。这些成本去年跃升 69%，达到 2.642 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158871795","content_text":"Roblox shares opened at $65 each on Wednesday, about 44% higher than the company’sreference price.Roblox Corp.  joins the ranks of closely held companies turning to public markets to support growth. The San Mateo, Calif.-based videogame provider’s stock will begin trading March 10 on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RBLX. The shares are trading through a direct listing, bypassing the traditional route of an initial public offering.Roblox’s reference price was set at $45, in lieu of a formal IPO price, and is based on recent private-market transactions.Roblox isn’t a traditional videogame company and is using a nontraditional process to potentially reach investors as the pandemic has driven people to spend more time and money on gameplay. Here’s what you need to know about the company and its plans for a direct listing.Roblox said in the latest update to its prospectus that it paid developers $328.7 million last year, up almost 200% from 2019. That far outpaced the company’s sales growth of 82% last year, when it booked $923.9 million in total revenue.More than 1,250 developers earned at least $10,000 in the digital currency Robux, which can be converted to cash. Over 300 earned $100,000 or more.Roblox is telling prospective shareholders to get comfortable with its hefty payouts. In its investor presentationlast week, the company said it plans to shell out even more to creators to incentive higher-quality content and fund bigger teams of engineers, designers, artists and producers.What is Roblox?Roblox is a free online platform that features tens of millions of multiplayer games made by its own players with tools the company provides. The games range from obstacle-course challenges and iterations of capture the flag to contests based on popular characters such as Peppa Pig and Sonic the Hedgehog. Company officials have said they are interested in increasing the use of Roblox for things such as virtual concerts and meetings.Who plays Roblox and how?Roblox is accessible on computers, consoles and mobile devices. The company said it had roughly 33 million daily users last year, of whom more than half are under the age of 13. Players in Roblox appear in the form of customizable avatars.Roblox’s Covid boomRoblox has been a huge beneficiary of the Covid-19 shutdowns, which forced kids out of the classroom and away from their friends. With no school to attend and birthday parties canceled,kids turned to Roblox, where they can socialize virtually, navigating theme parks, attending concerts and playing action games while also staying in touch using its popular text chat feature.Daily active users jumped 85% in 2020 to 32.6 million. The number of hours that players spent on the app more than doubled to 30.6 billion.That unexpected and unprecedented growth has created some challenges around its developer community. The company has had to contend with an influx ofspammers and scammers who are out to take advantage of some of the millions of kids who are ready and willing to spend their parents money on Robux.In-game pop-ups lure users with the promise of free Robux if they fill out a survey, only to reroute them to other sites where there’s no Robux and even more spam. In some cases, Roblox developers unknowingly install a malicious plug-in from the game development studio, infecting their own game.“Because of the popularity of our platform, we believe that we are an attractive target for these sorts of attacks,” Roblox said in its prospectus. The company said it’s investing to make sure outside parties can’t access user data and to prevent phishing, spamming and malware as much as possible.Roblox’s second-biggest expense, behind developer fees, is infrastructure, privacy and safety. Those costs jumped 69% last year to $264.2 million.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317891799,"gmtCreate":1612433122911,"gmtModify":1703761788627,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317891799","repostId":"2108479731","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319058870,"gmtCreate":1611449096490,"gmtModify":1703750460535,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"TP?&nbsp;","listText":"TP?&nbsp;","text":"TP?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319058870","repostId":"2105593894","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177310200,"gmtCreate":1627180142100,"gmtModify":1631891761986,"author":{"id":"3554926953596454","authorId":"3554926953596454","name":"Leingg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f4b2475923fbfa603dbf5ac4e9936a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554926953596454","idStr":"3554926953596454"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;future is there....&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;future is there....&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ future is there....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177310200","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}