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2021-08-22

This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.

American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>

2021-08-22

Good to long US semicon as trade war will continue to insulate it from Chinese competitive pressures.

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

2021-11-30

Not sure if you've all taken the mRNA boosters but damn, you really do get knocked out 😅 looks like it's 2x jabs annually, for the foreseeable future.

Moderna Surges After Saying Omicron Vaccine Ready Early 2022<blockquote>Moderna 表示奥密克戎疫苗将于 2022 年初准备就绪，股价飙升</blockquote>

2021-10-04

Stockholm...? Why not London?

Volvo Cars Is Completing Plans for IPO in Stockholm<blockquote>沃尔沃汽车正在完成在斯德哥尔摩的IPO计划</blockquote>

2021-08-21

Like for like!

Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>

2021-08-09

Third booster shot and the path dependency based on their initial high efficacy means that Pfizer's lead is likely to stay indefinitely.

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2021-06-21

FUD alert 😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

GME is going to go beyond being a brick and mortar games retailer.

GameStop completes at-the-market equity offering after raising $1.126 billion, stock jumps 6.84% premarket<blockquote>游戏驿站筹集 11.26 亿美元后完成场内股票发行，盘前股价上涨 6.84%</blockquote>

2021-10-12

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@3Fs:KeppelDC REIT Has Been Correcting - Potential $2.15 Coming?

2021-10-05

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

抱歉，原内容已删除

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696711368","repostId":"1136005118","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136005118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640767599,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1136005118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 10 Best S&P 500 Tech Stocks of 2021 Start With a Highflying Security Company<blockquote>2021 年 10 只最佳标普500科技股始于一家飞速发展的安全公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136005118","media":"Barrons","summary":"In a year in which cybersecurity incidents soared, the security hardware company Fortinet was the be","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In a year in which cybersecurity incidents soared, the security hardware company Fortinet was the best-performing technology stock in the S&amp;P 500,up about 150% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>在网络安全事件激增的一年里，安全硬件公司 Fortinet 是标准普尔 500 指数中表现最好的科技股，今年迄今已上涨约 150%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Fortinet’s (ticker: FTNT) flagship product is the FortiGate firewall, which combines various security and networking features for both enterprise and government customers. The company layers a “security fabric” on top of the hardware that includes “zero trust” network access controls, endpoint protection, and other features.</p><p><blockquote>Fortinet（股票代码：FTNT）的旗舰产品是 FortiGate 防火墙，它为企业和政府客户结合了各种安全和网络功能。该公司在硬件之上构建了一层 “安全结构 ”，其中包括 “零信任 ”网络访问控制、端点保护和其他功能。</blockquote></p><p>Growth has been impressive: Third-quarter revenue was up 33%, with product revenue up 52% and billings up 42%. RBC analyst Dan Bergstrom wrote in a research note last month following the earnings report that the company is seeing broad-based strength, “driven by the convergence of security and networking, consolidation and increased awareness around the threat landscape.”</p><p><blockquote>增长令人印象深刻：第三季度收入增长 33%，产品收入增长 52%，账单增长 42%。加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师丹-伯格斯特罗姆（Dan Bergstrom）在上个月财报发布后的一份研究报告中写道，“在安全和网络的融合、整合以及对威胁形势认识的提高的推动下，公司看到了广泛的实力”。</blockquote></p><p>In a research note last week previewing the outlook for the software sector for 2022, Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz noted that over the past few years, the company has “strengthened its competitive positioning and taken share in the network security market.” But he thinks it has “more work to do in the cloud,” and notes that its earnings comparisons get tougher in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗分析师格雷格-莫斯科维茨（Gregg Moskowitz）在上周一份预览 2022 年软件行业前景的研究报告中指出，在过去几年中，该公司 “加强了竞争定位，并在网络安全市场占据了份额”。但他认为 “在云端还有更多工作要做”，并指出 2022 年其盈利比较将变得更加艰难。</blockquote></p><p>The chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) was the No. 2 tech stock in the S&amp;P 500 in 2021, up 137% year to date, boosting its valuation to $750 billion, which makes it the world’s most highly valued semiconductor company—nearly twice the combined valuation of Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Originally focused on producing graphics cards used in PCs and game consoles, the company has evolved into a key component provider to cloud computing companies—and a play on almost every key trend in the semiconductor world, including cryptocurrency mining, artificial intelligence, electric and autonomous vehicles, and even the metaverse. Revenue in the latest quarter surged 50%.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商英伟达（NVDA）是2021年标普500第二大科技股，今年迄今上涨137%，估值达到7500亿美元，成为全球估值最高的半导体公司--几乎是英特尔（INTC）和先进微设备公司（AMD）估值总和的两倍。该公司最初专注于生产用于个人电脑和游戏机的显卡，现已发展成为云计算公司的关键组件提供商，并涉足半导体世界几乎所有关键趋势，包括加密货币挖矿、人工智能、电动和自动驾驶汽车，甚至元宇宙。最近一个季度的收入飙升了 50%。</blockquote></p><p>The IT consulting and events company Gartner (IT) has rallied 109% this year, as its IT research and consulting arms returned to prepandemic levels, though its events business has continued to lag. Gartner’s surge reflects widespread anticipation of a continued acceleration in enterprise technology spending as the world emerges from the pandemic. Another strong stock on a related theme was EPAM Systems (EPAM), an IT consulting firm that has rallied 95% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>IT咨询和活动公司Gartner（IT）今年上涨了109%，其IT研究和咨询部门恢复到大流行前的水平，尽管其活动业务继续落后。Gartner 的飙升反映了人们普遍预期，随着全球摆脱大流行病，企业技术支出将继续加速。另一只相关主题的强劲股票是 EPAM Systems (EPAM)，这是一家 IT 咨询公司，在过去一年中上涨了 95%。</blockquote></p><p>Arista Networks shares (ANET) have doubled this year on strong demand for its networking wares, in particular from cloud players. The company is seeing accelerating earnings growth, and last month announced both a 4-for-1 stock split and a $1 billion stock-repurchase plan. Another stock that benefited from strong demand from cloud players is disk-drive maker Seagate Technology (STX), which rallied 83%. While the company was once largely tied to the PC market, it now primarily sells drives for enterprise applications.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其网络产品的强劲需求，尤其是来自云玩家的需求，Arista Networks (ANET) 的股价今年翻了一番。该公司的盈利增长正在加速，上个月宣布了 4 比 1 的股票分割和 10 亿美元的股票回购计划。另一只受益于云玩家强劲需求的股票是磁盘驱动器制造商希捷科技 (STX)，该股上涨了 83%。虽然该公司曾经主要与个人电脑市场挂钩，但现在主要销售企业应用驱动器。</blockquote></p><p>Semiconductor equipment stocks have been strong performers in 2021, no surprise given the continuing chip shortage and new commitments to expand capacity from Intel (INTC),Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM),GlobalFoundries (GF), and other chip manufacturers. Among the best performers in the S&amp;P 500 were Applied Materials (AMAT), up 89%, and KLA (KLAC), up 70%.</p><p><blockquote>半导体设备股在 2021 年表现强劲，考虑到芯片持续短缺以及英特尔 (INTC)、台积电 (TSM)、格芯 (GF) 和其他芯片制造商扩大产能的新承诺，这并不奇怪。标普500表现最好的公司包括应用材料公司 (AMAT)，上涨 89%，KLA (KLAC)，上涨 70%。</blockquote></p><p>Intuit (INTU) shares have rallied 70%, driven by better-than-expected revenue growth, thanks in part to the company’s successful acquisition of Credit Karma. October-quarter revenues were up 52%, 15 percentage points ahead of the company’s original guidance. In an interview with <i>Barron’s</i> in November, Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi said the better-than-expected growth reflects the success of the company’s strategy over the past few years to expand its services for both consumers and small businesses beyond accounting and tax software.</p><p><blockquote>在收入增长好于预期的推动下，Intuit (INTU) 股价上涨了 70%，部分原因是该公司成功收购了 Credit Karma。10 月份季度的收入增长了 52%，比公司最初的指引高出 15 个百分点。在接受采访时<i>巴伦</i>11 月，Intuit 首席执行官 Sasan Goodarzi 表示，好于预期的增长反映了公司在过去几年中为消费者和小企业扩大服务的战略取得了成功，而不仅仅是会计和税务软件。</blockquote></p><p>Rounding out the top 10, with a gain of 69%, is Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), pushing its valuation to nearly $2 trillion. The company continues to see strong growth in demand for online advertising. Google has largely avoided the pain inflicted on some ad-supported businesses by Apple‘s (AAPL) shift to new rules that make it harder to follow customer behavior on iPhones. Search activity isn’t as dependent as display ads for determining consumer intent—and it seems likely that some ad spend is shifting from social media to search-based advertising. Growth is robust, too, in the company’s YouTube business.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOGL）以 69% 的涨幅位列前十，将其估值推至近 2 万亿美元。该公司在线广告需求继续强劲增长。谷歌在很大程度上避免了苹果(AAPL)转向新规则给一些广告支持的企业带来的痛苦，这些新规则使得跟踪iPhone上的客户行为变得更加困难。在决定消费者意图方面，搜索活动并不像展示广告那样依赖--而且一些广告支出似乎正在从社交媒体转向基于搜索的广告。该公司的 YouTube 业务也增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 10 Best S&P 500 Tech Stocks of 2021 Start With a Highflying Security Company<blockquote>2021 年 10 只最佳标普500科技股始于一家飞速发展的安全公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 10 Best S&P 500 Tech Stocks of 2021 Start With a Highflying Security Company<blockquote>2021 年 10 只最佳标普500科技股始于一家飞速发展的安全公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-29 16:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In a year in which cybersecurity incidents soared, the security hardware company Fortinet was the best-performing technology stock in the S&amp;P 500,up about 150% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>在网络安全事件激增的一年里，安全硬件公司 Fortinet 是标准普尔 500 指数中表现最好的科技股，今年迄今已上涨约 150%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Fortinet’s (ticker: FTNT) flagship product is the FortiGate firewall, which combines various security and networking features for both enterprise and government customers. The company layers a “security fabric” on top of the hardware that includes “zero trust” network access controls, endpoint protection, and other features.</p><p><blockquote>Fortinet（股票代码：FTNT）的旗舰产品是 FortiGate 防火墙，它为企业和政府客户结合了各种安全和网络功能。该公司在硬件之上构建了一层 “安全结构 ”，其中包括 “零信任 ”网络访问控制、端点保护和其他功能。</blockquote></p><p>Growth has been impressive: Third-quarter revenue was up 33%, with product revenue up 52% and billings up 42%. RBC analyst Dan Bergstrom wrote in a research note last month following the earnings report that the company is seeing broad-based strength, “driven by the convergence of security and networking, consolidation and increased awareness around the threat landscape.”</p><p><blockquote>增长令人印象深刻：第三季度收入增长 33%，产品收入增长 52%，账单增长 42%。加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师丹-伯格斯特罗姆（Dan Bergstrom）在上个月财报发布后的一份研究报告中写道，“在安全和网络的融合、整合以及对威胁形势认识的提高的推动下，公司看到了广泛的实力”。</blockquote></p><p>In a research note last week previewing the outlook for the software sector for 2022, Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz noted that over the past few years, the company has “strengthened its competitive positioning and taken share in the network security market.” But he thinks it has “more work to do in the cloud,” and notes that its earnings comparisons get tougher in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗分析师格雷格-莫斯科维茨（Gregg Moskowitz）在上周一份预览 2022 年软件行业前景的研究报告中指出，在过去几年中，该公司 “加强了竞争定位，并在网络安全市场占据了份额”。但他认为 “在云端还有更多工作要做”，并指出 2022 年其盈利比较将变得更加艰难。</blockquote></p><p>The chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) was the No. 2 tech stock in the S&amp;P 500 in 2021, up 137% year to date, boosting its valuation to $750 billion, which makes it the world’s most highly valued semiconductor company—nearly twice the combined valuation of Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Originally focused on producing graphics cards used in PCs and game consoles, the company has evolved into a key component provider to cloud computing companies—and a play on almost every key trend in the semiconductor world, including cryptocurrency mining, artificial intelligence, electric and autonomous vehicles, and even the metaverse. Revenue in the latest quarter surged 50%.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商英伟达（NVDA）是2021年标普500第二大科技股，今年迄今上涨137%，估值达到7500亿美元，成为全球估值最高的半导体公司--几乎是英特尔（INTC）和先进微设备公司（AMD）估值总和的两倍。该公司最初专注于生产用于个人电脑和游戏机的显卡，现已发展成为云计算公司的关键组件提供商，并涉足半导体世界几乎所有关键趋势，包括加密货币挖矿、人工智能、电动和自动驾驶汽车，甚至元宇宙。最近一个季度的收入飙升了 50%。</blockquote></p><p>The IT consulting and events company Gartner (IT) has rallied 109% this year, as its IT research and consulting arms returned to prepandemic levels, though its events business has continued to lag. Gartner’s surge reflects widespread anticipation of a continued acceleration in enterprise technology spending as the world emerges from the pandemic. Another strong stock on a related theme was EPAM Systems (EPAM), an IT consulting firm that has rallied 95% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>IT咨询和活动公司Gartner（IT）今年上涨了109%，其IT研究和咨询部门恢复到大流行前的水平，尽管其活动业务继续落后。Gartner 的飙升反映了人们普遍预期，随着全球摆脱大流行病，企业技术支出将继续加速。另一只相关主题的强劲股票是 EPAM Systems (EPAM)，这是一家 IT 咨询公司，在过去一年中上涨了 95%。</blockquote></p><p>Arista Networks shares (ANET) have doubled this year on strong demand for its networking wares, in particular from cloud players. The company is seeing accelerating earnings growth, and last month announced both a 4-for-1 stock split and a $1 billion stock-repurchase plan. Another stock that benefited from strong demand from cloud players is disk-drive maker Seagate Technology (STX), which rallied 83%. While the company was once largely tied to the PC market, it now primarily sells drives for enterprise applications.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其网络产品的强劲需求，尤其是来自云玩家的需求，Arista Networks (ANET) 的股价今年翻了一番。该公司的盈利增长正在加速，上个月宣布了 4 比 1 的股票分割和 10 亿美元的股票回购计划。另一只受益于云玩家强劲需求的股票是磁盘驱动器制造商希捷科技 (STX)，该股上涨了 83%。虽然该公司曾经主要与个人电脑市场挂钩，但现在主要销售企业应用驱动器。</blockquote></p><p>Semiconductor equipment stocks have been strong performers in 2021, no surprise given the continuing chip shortage and new commitments to expand capacity from Intel (INTC),Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM),GlobalFoundries (GF), and other chip manufacturers. Among the best performers in the S&amp;P 500 were Applied Materials (AMAT), up 89%, and KLA (KLAC), up 70%.</p><p><blockquote>半导体设备股在 2021 年表现强劲，考虑到芯片持续短缺以及英特尔 (INTC)、台积电 (TSM)、格芯 (GF) 和其他芯片制造商扩大产能的新承诺，这并不奇怪。标普500表现最好的公司包括应用材料公司 (AMAT)，上涨 89%，KLA (KLAC)，上涨 70%。</blockquote></p><p>Intuit (INTU) shares have rallied 70%, driven by better-than-expected revenue growth, thanks in part to the company’s successful acquisition of Credit Karma. October-quarter revenues were up 52%, 15 percentage points ahead of the company’s original guidance. In an interview with <i>Barron’s</i> in November, Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi said the better-than-expected growth reflects the success of the company’s strategy over the past few years to expand its services for both consumers and small businesses beyond accounting and tax software.</p><p><blockquote>在收入增长好于预期的推动下，Intuit (INTU) 股价上涨了 70%，部分原因是该公司成功收购了 Credit Karma。10 月份季度的收入增长了 52%，比公司最初的指引高出 15 个百分点。在接受采访时<i>巴伦</i>11 月，Intuit 首席执行官 Sasan Goodarzi 表示，好于预期的增长反映了公司在过去几年中为消费者和小企业扩大服务的战略取得了成功，而不仅仅是会计和税务软件。</blockquote></p><p>Rounding out the top 10, with a gain of 69%, is Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), pushing its valuation to nearly $2 trillion. The company continues to see strong growth in demand for online advertising. Google has largely avoided the pain inflicted on some ad-supported businesses by Apple‘s (AAPL) shift to new rules that make it harder to follow customer behavior on iPhones. Search activity isn’t as dependent as display ads for determining consumer intent—and it seems likely that some ad spend is shifting from social media to search-based advertising. Growth is robust, too, in the company’s YouTube business.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOGL）以 69% 的涨幅位列前十，将其估值推至近 2 万亿美元。该公司在线广告需求继续强劲增长。谷歌在很大程度上避免了苹果(AAPL)转向新规则给一些广告支持的企业带来的痛苦，这些新规则使得跟踪iPhone上的客户行为变得更加困难。在决定消费者意图方面，搜索活动并不像展示广告那样依赖--而且一些广告支出似乎正在从社交媒体转向基于搜索的广告。该公司的 YouTube 业务也增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-10-best-s-p-500-tech-stocks-of-2021-start-with-a-highflying-security-stock-51640726539?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FTNT":"飞塔信息","NVDA":"英伟达","INTU":"财捷","AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔","AMAT":"应用材料","IT":"加特纳","ANET":"Arista Networks, Inc.","EPAM":"Epam Systems","KLAC":"科磊","TSM":"台积电","GF":"新德基金","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-10-best-s-p-500-tech-stocks-of-2021-start-with-a-highflying-security-stock-51640726539?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136005118","content_text":"In a year in which cybersecurity incidents soared, the security hardware company Fortinet was the best-performing technology stock in the S&P 500,up about 150% year to date.Fortinet’s (ticker: FTNT) flagship product is the FortiGate firewall, which combines various security and networking features for both enterprise and government customers. The company layers a “security fabric” on top of the hardware that includes “zero trust” network access controls, endpoint protection, and other features.Growth has been impressive: Third-quarter revenue was up 33%, with product revenue up 52% and billings up 42%. RBC analyst Dan Bergstrom wrote in a research note last month following the earnings report that the company is seeing broad-based strength, “driven by the convergence of security and networking, consolidation and increased awareness around the threat landscape.”In a research note last week previewing the outlook for the software sector for 2022, Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz noted that over the past few years, the company has “strengthened its competitive positioning and taken share in the network security market.” But he thinks it has “more work to do in the cloud,” and notes that its earnings comparisons get tougher in 2022.The chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) was the No. 2 tech stock in the S&P 500 in 2021, up 137% year to date, boosting its valuation to $750 billion, which makes it the world’s most highly valued semiconductor company—nearly twice the combined valuation of Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Originally focused on producing graphics cards used in PCs and game consoles, the company has evolved into a key component provider to cloud computing companies—and a play on almost every key trend in the semiconductor world, including cryptocurrency mining, artificial intelligence, electric and autonomous vehicles, and even the metaverse. Revenue in the latest quarter surged 50%.The IT consulting and events company Gartner (IT) has rallied 109% this year, as its IT research and consulting arms returned to prepandemic levels, though its events business has continued to lag. Gartner’s surge reflects widespread anticipation of a continued acceleration in enterprise technology spending as the world emerges from the pandemic. Another strong stock on a related theme was EPAM Systems (EPAM), an IT consulting firm that has rallied 95% over the past year.Arista Networks shares (ANET) have doubled this year on strong demand for its networking wares, in particular from cloud players. The company is seeing accelerating earnings growth, and last month announced both a 4-for-1 stock split and a $1 billion stock-repurchase plan. Another stock that benefited from strong demand from cloud players is disk-drive maker Seagate Technology (STX), which rallied 83%. While the company was once largely tied to the PC market, it now primarily sells drives for enterprise applications.Semiconductor equipment stocks have been strong performers in 2021, no surprise given the continuing chip shortage and new commitments to expand capacity from Intel (INTC),Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM),GlobalFoundries (GF), and other chip manufacturers. Among the best performers in the S&P 500 were Applied Materials (AMAT), up 89%, and KLA (KLAC), up 70%.Intuit (INTU) shares have rallied 70%, driven by better-than-expected revenue growth, thanks in part to the company’s successful acquisition of Credit Karma. October-quarter revenues were up 52%, 15 percentage points ahead of the company’s original guidance. In an interview with Barron’s in November, Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi said the better-than-expected growth reflects the success of the company’s strategy over the past few years to expand its services for both consumers and small businesses beyond accounting and tax software.Rounding out the top 10, with a gain of 69%, is Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), pushing its valuation to nearly $2 trillion. The company continues to see strong growth in demand for online advertising. Google has largely avoided the pain inflicted on some ad-supported businesses by Apple‘s (AAPL) shift to new rules that make it harder to follow customer behavior on iPhones. Search activity isn’t as dependent as display ads for determining consumer intent—and it seems likely that some ad spend is shifting from social media to search-based advertising. Growth is robust, too, in the company’s YouTube business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FTNT":0.9,"KLAC":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"IT":0.9,"GF":0.9,"ANET":0.9,"EPAM":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"INTU":0.9,"AMAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609399469,"gmtCreate":1638236602813,"gmtModify":1638237464796,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not sure if you've all taken the mRNA boosters but damn, you really do get knocked out 😅 looks like it's 2x jabs annually, for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;","listText":"Not sure if you've all taken the mRNA boosters but damn, you really do get knocked out 😅 looks like it's 2x jabs annually, for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;","text":"Not sure if you've all taken the mRNA boosters but damn, you really do get knocked out 😅 looks like it's 2x jabs annually, for the foreseeable future.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609399469","repostId":"1199171840","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199171840","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638236363,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199171840?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna Surges After Saying Omicron Vaccine Ready Early 2022<blockquote>Moderna 表示奥密克戎疫苗将于 2022 年初准备就绪，股价飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199171840","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vac","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vaccine to fight the omicron strain of the coronavirus could be ready by early 2022 if required. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——Moderna Inc. 表示，如果需要的话，对抗奥密克戎冠状病毒株的新疫苗可以在 2022 年初准备就绪，该公司公布了一年来最好的两天涨势。这……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Surges After Saying Omicron Vaccine Ready Early 2022<blockquote>Moderna 表示奥密克戎疫苗将于 2022 年初准备就绪，股价飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Surges After Saying Omicron Vaccine Ready Early 2022<blockquote>Moderna 表示奥密克戎疫苗将于 2022 年初准备就绪，股价飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vaccine to fight the omicron strain of the coronavirus could be ready by early 2022 if required. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——Moderna Inc. 表示，如果需要的话，对抗奥密克戎冠状病毒株的新疫苗可以在 2022 年初准备就绪，该公司公布了一年来最好的两天涨势。这……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199171840","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vaccine to fight the omicron strain of the coronavirus could be ready by early 2022 if required.\nThe stock jumped 12% to the highest level since Sept. 30 after surging 21% during Friday’s global risk-asset selloff, to reclaim its place as top performer on the S&P 500 year-to-date. The company mobilized hundreds of workers on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday in order to start work on omicron, Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton said over the weekend.\nModerna’s mRNA technology is ideally suited to adapting vaccines to new variants, according to Piper Sandler analyst Edward A. Tenthoff, who has an overweight rating on the stock.\n“Moderna is in a better position to develop novel Covid-19 vaccines, and now has capacity to manufacture several hundred million vaccine doses every month,” Tenthoff wrote in a note to clients. “SARS-CoV-2 is not going away and will provide years of future revenues.”\nJefferies analyst Michael Yee also struck an optimistic tone for Moderna investors, saying the latest spread should encourage people to get boosted sooner rather than later, while the biotech focuses on a new version for 2022. Moderna “can advance new candidates to clinical trials within 60-90 days,” he said.\nBioNTech SE closed 4.2% higher in U.S. trading after saying it is working to adapt its Covid-19 vaccine to address the omicron variant and expects to have a new version ready within 100 days if necessary. The biotech and its Covid vaccine partner Pfizer Inc. put plans into place months ago. Pfizer shares closed 3% lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000603","authorId":"9000000000000603","name":"ElsieDewey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5db46fc82ad451b6aa0d938d2221d70","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000603","authorIdStr":"9000000000000603"},"content":"I hope the virus will be eliminated as soon as possible. Twice a year is terrible.","text":"I hope the virus will be eliminated as soon as possible. Twice a year is terrible.","html":"I hope the virus will be eliminated as soon as possible. Twice a year is terrible."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609304475,"gmtCreate":1638236417775,"gmtModify":1638237120281,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609304475","repostId":"2185541043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877699768,"gmtCreate":1637920275199,"gmtModify":1637920275199,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877699768","repostId":"874111841","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":874111841,"gmtCreate":1637742207078,"gmtModify":1637857028934,"author":{"id":"4094170414075980","authorId":"4094170414075980","name":"Hazelle_TJI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30f0cd450e3f3bdd4218b5da4285f2c5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094170414075980","authorIdStr":"4094170414075980"},"themes":[],"title":"Beginners' Guide To Call Options (Part 3 of 3) | How Do Buyers Profit From Call Options?","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)In the previous part of this Beginners' Guide To Call Options series👨‍🏫, we explained why the value of call options fluctuate in the financial markets. In the last part of this series, we will be sharing with you why some buyers buy call options instead of the underlying stocks. We will also take a step further to explore why buyers of call options usually do not exercise the call option.Disclaimer: The video is solely an educational series on how call options work from the buyers' perspective for beginners to understand better about options. This does not constitute as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular options strategy.\n \n","listText":"Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)In the previous part of this Beginners' Guide To Call Options series👨‍🏫, we explained why the value of call options fluctuate in the financial markets. In the last part of this series, we will be sharing with you why some buyers buy call options instead of the underlying stocks. We will also take a step further to explore why buyers of call options usually do not exercise the call option.Disclaimer: The video is solely an educational series on how call options work from the buyers' perspective for beginners to understand better about options. This does not constitute as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular options strategy.","text":"Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)In the previous part of this Beginners' Guide To Call Options series👨‍🏫, we explained why the value of call options fluctuate in the financial markets. In the last part of this series, we will be sharing with you why some buyers buy call options instead of the underlying stocks. We will also take a step further to explore why buyers of call options usually do not exercise the call option.Disclaimer: The video is solely an educational series on how call options work from the buyers' perspective for beginners to understand better about options. This does not constitute as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular options strategy.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227fb28f85936d9e5b14a3630644081f","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874111841","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"06f96bc9d4e84954921b9580b97906f9","tweetId":"874111841","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/8a1ed91dvodsgp1254107296/53598de3387702291859855447/OaGeoJaWjKsA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227fb28f85936d9e5b14a3630644081f"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877699442,"gmtCreate":1637920269166,"gmtModify":1637920269166,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877699442","repostId":"874998482","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":874998482,"gmtCreate":1637718076466,"gmtModify":1637767726042,"author":{"id":"4094170414075980","authorId":"4094170414075980","name":"Hazelle_TJI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30f0cd450e3f3bdd4218b5da4285f2c5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094170414075980","authorIdStr":"4094170414075980"},"themes":[],"title":"Beginners' Guide To Call Options (Part 2 of 3) | Why Does The Value Of A Call Option Change?","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)Recall in the 1st part of this Beginners' Guide To Call Options series👨‍🏫, we shared about an analogy of Jerry using the concept of call option to purchase his dream house? The value of the call option he bought stays constant throughout, but this is not the case for the call options in the financial markets. In the 2nd part of this series, we will be sharing with you why the value of call options in the financial markets fluctuate.\n \n","listText":"Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)Recall in the 1st part of this Beginners' Guide To Call Options series👨‍🏫, we shared about an analogy of Jerry using the concept of call option to purchase his dream house? The value of the call option he bought stays constant throughout, but this is not the case for the call options in the financial markets. In the 2nd part of this series, we will be sharing with you why the value of call options in the financial markets fluctuate.","text":"Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)Recall in the 1st part of this Beginners' Guide To Call Options series👨‍🏫, we shared about an analogy of Jerry using the concept of call option to purchase his dream house? The value of the call option he bought stays constant throughout, but this is not the case for the call options in the financial markets. In the 2nd part of this series, we will be sharing with you why the value of call options in the financial markets fluctuate.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cef43d215984241f2dce268b834b5d7","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874998482","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"9e3477ab4a834755a03b2017de2186e3","tweetId":"874998482","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/8a1ed91dvodsgp1254107296/ebbb3423387702291834221012/cCNasBVgGywA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cef43d215984241f2dce268b834b5d7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877699535,"gmtCreate":1637920263942,"gmtModify":1637920263942,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877699535","repostId":"875840306","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":875840306,"gmtCreate":1637635204294,"gmtModify":1783566811780,"author":{"id":"4094170414075980","authorId":"4094170414075980","name":"Hazelle_TJI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30f0cd450e3f3bdd4218b5da4285f2c5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094170414075980","authorIdStr":"4094170414075980"},"themes":[],"title":"Beginners' Guide To Call Options (Part 1 of 3) | What Are Call Options?","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)Heard about investors using options but have no idea what they are? [疑问]&nbsp;Fret not, here's a beginners' guide for you! 👨‍🏫In this 3-part series, you will be able to gain a good understanding of what are call options from the perspective of buyers. We will kickstart with the 1st part of this series by sharing with you what call options are using an analogy to simplify your learning curve.&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;Disclaimer: The video is solely an educational series on how call options work from the buyers' perspective for beginners to understand better about options. This does not constitute as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular options strategy.\n \n","listText":"Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)Heard about investors using options but have no idea what they are? [疑问]&nbsp;Fret not, here's a beginners' guide for you! 👨‍🏫In this 3-part series, you will be able to gain a good understanding of what are call options from the perspective of buyers. We will kickstart with the 1st part of this series by sharing with you what call options are using an analogy to simplify your learning curve.&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;Disclaimer: The video is solely an educational series on how call options work from the buyers' perspective for beginners to understand better about options. This does not constitute as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular options strategy.","text":"Original video was posted on The Joyful Investors' YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheJoyfulInvestors)Heard about investors using options but have no idea what they are? [疑问] Fret not, here's a beginners' guide for you! 👨‍🏫In this 3-part series, you will be able to gain a good understanding of what are call options from the perspective of buyers. We will kickstart with the 1st part of this series by sharing with you what call options are using an analogy to simplify your learning curve. [微笑] Disclaimer: The video is solely an educational series on how call options work from the buyers' perspective for beginners to understand better about options. This does not constitute as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular options strategy.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc20f2ec871b80dbaf029faa59685e57","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875840306","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"071a0e1fc20444cb8264f1aa61cee334","tweetId":"875840306","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/8a1ed91dvodsgp1254107296/280fd53c387702291791850666/ZPi8S9zuBO0A.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab390aece013b383b755971f6501904"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874516515,"gmtCreate":1637800979034,"gmtModify":1637800979034,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874516515","repostId":"1107787773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872890256,"gmtCreate":1637468024643,"gmtModify":1637468024643,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872890256","repostId":"2184828468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826287574,"gmtCreate":1634026089217,"gmtModify":1634026097342,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826287574","repostId":"828515753","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":828515753,"gmtCreate":1633923851747,"gmtModify":1633984527317,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556134694513016","authorIdStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"KeppelDC REIT Has Been Correcting - Potential $2.15 Coming?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a> has been one of the performing stars in the SREIT universe for quite some time since its’ IPO.Investors who are looking to buy this REIT has been given very little to no chance to add on to their shares as the company continues to shoulder on its meteoric rise in the past few years.Since hitting the peak of $3.13 sometime in October last year, the company has undergone quite a bit of correction over the past few months, breaking it’s support each time as it moves lower.With the company trading at $2.34 today, is this a good opportunity to add on to the shares given their longer term prospect?Maiden Acquisition in China with a high 9% NPI Yield:The maiden acquisition in&nbsp;Guangdong Data Centre&nbsp;locat","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a> has been one of the performing stars in the SREIT universe for quite some time since its’ IPO.Investors who are looking to buy this REIT has been given very little to no chance to add on to their shares as the company continues to shoulder on its meteoric rise in the past few years.Since hitting the peak of $3.13 sometime in October last year, the company has undergone quite a bit of correction over the past few months, breaking it’s support each time as it moves lower.With the company trading at $2.34 today, is this a good opportunity to add on to the shares given their longer term prospect?Maiden Acquisition in China with a high 9% NPI Yield:The maiden acquisition in&nbsp;Guangdong Data Centre&nbsp;locat","text":"$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$ has been one of the performing stars in the SREIT universe for quite some time since its’ IPO.Investors who are looking to buy this REIT has been given very little to no chance to add on to their shares as the company continues to shoulder on its meteoric rise in the past few years.Since hitting the peak of $3.13 sometime in October last year, the company has undergone quite a bit of correction over the past few months, breaking it’s support each time as it moves lower.With the company trading at $2.34 today, is this a good opportunity to add on to the shares given their longer term prospect?Maiden Acquisition in China with a high 9% NPI Yield:The maiden acquisition in Guangdong Data Centre locat","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a1c0c93b58898ee07897dd6539766c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08e5927471ce7ad96d042822dd24bb9"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce8d11aa2028ae2f64a7c01be0262bc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828515753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820453072,"gmtCreate":1633421436173,"gmtModify":1633421436248,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820453072","repostId":"2172873995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820986785,"gmtCreate":1633341344178,"gmtModify":1633341344306,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Stockholm...? Why not London?&nbsp;","listText":"Stockholm...? Why not London?&nbsp;","text":"Stockholm...? Why not London?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820986785","repostId":"1183951893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183951893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633338624,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183951893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 17:10","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Volvo Cars Is Completing Plans for IPO in Stockholm<blockquote>沃尔沃汽车正在完成在斯德哥尔摩的IPO计划</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183951893","media":"WSJ","summary":"Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing","content":"<p>Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing plans for an initial public offering and is set to announce details of the listing as early as Monday, in a deal that could value the car maker at as much as $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国浙江吉利控股集团有限公司旗下的瑞典汽车制造商沃尔沃汽车正在完成首次公开募股计划，最早将于周一公布上市细节，据知情人士透露，这笔交易可能对这家汽车制造商的估值高达250亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> A listing, if it goes ahead, would represent one of the car industry’s most dramatic turnarounds.Ford MotorCo., weakened by the global financial crisis, sold the Swedish company to Geelyfor $1.8 billion in 2010.</p><p><blockquote>如果上市成行，将代表汽车行业最戏剧性的转变之一。受全球金融危机影响，福特汽车公司于 2010 年以 18 亿美元的价格将这家瑞典公司出售给了吉利。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has long capitalized on a brand recognized for safety, but at the time of its sale, its product lineup had failed to excite car buyers. Geely bankrolled Volvo’s recovery over the next decade, opening China as a market for the brand and providing financing to help the company revamp its model offerings.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃长期以来一直利用一个以安全著称的品牌，但在出售时，其产品阵容未能激发购车者的兴趣。吉利在接下来的十年里为沃尔沃的复苏提供了资金，将中国作为沃尔沃品牌的市场开放市场，并提供融资帮助沃尔沃改进其车型产品。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Volvo is profitable, with a road map for electric-model rollouts that is ahead of some competitors. Its brand is back in fashion in the U.S. and elsewhere. It now competes with German premium brands, including BMW makerBayerische Motoren WerkeAG,VolkswagenAG’sAudi brand andDaimlerAG’sMercedes-Benz.</p><p><blockquote>如今，沃尔沃已实现盈利，其电动车型推出路线图领先于一些竞争对手。它的品牌在美国和其他地方重新流行起来。它现在与德国高端品牌竞争，包括宝马制造商巴伐利亚汽车公司、大众汽车公司的沙特品牌和戴姆勒公司的梅赛德斯-奔驰。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of this year, Volvo reported a 41% increase in sales over the same period last year, to 380,757 vehicles. The company’s sales in the U.S. rose 47% to 63,754 vehicles. Europe remains Volvo’s biggest market.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，沃尔沃的销量比去年同期增长了41%，达到380,757辆。该公司在美国的销量增长了 47%，达到 63,754 辆。欧洲仍然是沃尔沃最大的市场。</blockquote></p><p> At a valuation of $25 billion, Volvo would be bigger than European car maker&nbsp;Renault&nbsp;SA,which has a market value of a little more than $10 billion. That is despite Volvo selling a fraction of the cars Renault sells each year. Volvo’s size, though, would pale against the world’s biggest car makers, including&nbsp;General MotorsCo.and Volkswagen, underscoring the competitive challenge the Swedish company faces. Its value would also sharply trail the $767.5 billion market capitalization of electric-vehicle leaderTeslaInc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃的估值为 250 亿美元，将超过市值略高于 100 亿美元的欧洲汽车制造商雷诺公司。尽管沃尔沃每年的销量只是雷诺每年销量的一小部分。不过，沃尔沃的规模与通用汽车公司和大众汽车等全球最大的汽车制造商相比相形见绌，这凸显了这家瑞典公司面临的竞争挑战。其价值也将大幅落后于电动汽车领导者特斯拉公司 7,675 亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a listing would provide investors another competitor to bet on in an auto-industry race to roll out electric vehicles. Volvo was the first conventional auto maker to begin phasing out internal-combustion engines, ending its production of cars only powered by fossil fuels in 2019. Since then, every new Volvo is either a fully electric or hybrid model.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上市仍将为投资者在汽车行业推出电动汽车的竞赛中提供另一个可以押注的竞争对手。沃尔沃是第一家开始逐步淘汰内燃机的传统汽车制造商，并于 2019 年停止生产仅使用化石燃料的汽车。从那时起，每辆新沃尔沃都是全电动或混合动力车型。</blockquote></p><p> Most big auto makers have since said that they also will be phasing out conventional engines in new vehicles, by around 2035.</p><p><blockquote>此后，大多数大型汽车制造商都表示，到 2035 年左右，他们还将逐步淘汰新车中的传统发动机。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has floated the idea of a possible listing as far back as 2018, and in May said it&nbsp;was considering an IPO&nbsp;on the Stockholm stock exchange. Such a listing could provide the company a broader shareholder base and greater independence from its Chinese investors. In September, Reuters reported that Volvo was in talks to list its shares in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃早在 2018 年就提出了可能上市的想法，并于 5 月份表示正在考虑在斯德哥尔摩证券交易所 IPO。这样的上市可以为该公司提供更广泛的股东基础，并使其独立于中国投资者。9 月，路透社报道称，沃尔沃正在就未来几周内上市进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how big a stake Geely plans to sell, but it has previously indicated it would likely remain a major shareholder after any offering. A decision on the details of the listing and its public disclosure could be delayed, but people familiar with the plans said a final call was imminent.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚吉利计划出售多大的股份，但吉利此前曾表示，在发行后，吉利可能仍将是主要股东。关于上市细节及其公开披露的决定可能会推迟，但知情人士表示，最终看涨期权即将举行。</blockquote></p><p> An offering would come amid a frenzy of investor interest in electric vehicles and after an EV-focused Volvo affiliate made its own move to take advantage of that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>此次发行正值投资者对电动汽车的狂热兴趣之际，以及沃尔沃一家专注于电动汽车的子公司采取了自己的行动来利用这种热情之后。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, Polestar, a Swedish electric-vehicle maker jointly owned by Volvo, Geely and others, announced plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition company and list in New York in a deal that would value the Swedish EV company&nbsp;at roughly $20 billion.</p><p><blockquote>上周，沃尔沃、吉利等公司共同拥有的瑞典电动汽车制造商Polestar宣布计划与一家特殊目的收购公司合并，并在纽约上市，这笔交易对这家瑞典电动汽车公司的估值约为200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo Cars said last month that it expected to own close to 50% of the combined company after completion of Polestar’s merger with Gores Guggenheim Inc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃汽车上个月表示，在 Polestar 与 Gores Guggenheim Inc. 完成合并后，沃尔沃汽车预计将拥有合并后公司近 50% 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> The Polestar deal generated a pathway for Volvo to pursue its own offering by assigning a value of about $10 billion to Volvo’s stake, according to some of the people familiar with Volvo’s listing plans.</p><p><blockquote>据一些熟悉沃尔沃上市计划的人士透露，Polestar 交易通过向沃尔沃的股份分配约 100 亿美元的价值，为沃尔沃追求自己的收购开辟了道路。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Volvo and Geely backed away from considerations of merging Volvo with Geely Auto Group, raising expectations that the company would pursue a separate listing and greater independence from Geely Holding.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，沃尔沃和吉利放弃了将沃尔沃与吉利汽车集团合并的考虑，这引发了人们对该公司将寻求单独上市并更加独立于吉利控股的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Volvo Cars is especially well-positioned to deliver continued growth and harness the full potential of electrification and the delivery of safe autonomous-drive functions,” Eric Li, chairman of Geely Holding, said in May.</p><p><blockquote>“吉利控股公司董事长埃里克-李（Eric Li）在 5 月份表示：”沃尔沃汽车在实现持续增长、充分发挥电气化潜力和提供安全自动驾驶功能方面处于特别有利的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Ford bought Volvo in 1999 for 50 billion Swedish kronor&nbsp;, or about $6.47 billion at the time of the transaction. At the time, Volvo had 28,000 employees and produced about 400,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>福特于 1999 年以 500 亿瑞典克朗（交易时约合 64.7 亿美元）收购了沃尔沃。当时，沃尔沃拥有 28,000 名员工，每年生产约 400,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> By 2009, when Ford put the company up for sale, Volvo was struggling. After Geely stepped in, it poured in money. Over the course of a decade, Geely invested more than $11 billion, financing a modernization of the company’s model lineup, an early shift into electric vehicles, and factories in China that helped Volvo cash in on China’s surging appetite for Western cars.</p><p><blockquote>到 2009 年，当福特将公司出售时，沃尔沃正陷入困境。吉利介入后，砸钱。在十年间，吉利投资了 110 多亿美元，为公司车型阵容的现代化、尽早转向电动汽车以及在中国建立工厂提供了资金，帮助沃尔沃利用了中国对西方汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In 2018, Volvo opened its first U.S. factory. The brand had once been a household name in suburban America in the 1970s. But it had to rebuild its business in the world’s most lucrative car market.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，沃尔沃开设了第一家美国工厂。这个品牌在20世纪70年代曾是美国郊区家喻户晓的名字。但它必须在世界上最赚钱的汽车市场重建业务。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo produces the S60 sedan in Charleston, S.C. Next year, the South Carolina plant intends to produce an electric version of the company’s XC90, a large, premium sport-utility vehicle. Volvo has invested more than $1 billion in the plant and employs 1,500 people there. The company has said that its U.S. plant will be the first to shift entirely to electric-car production.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃在南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿生产 S60 轿车明年，南卡罗来纳州工厂打算生产该公司 XC90 的电动版，这是一款大型高端运动型多功能车。沃尔沃已在该工厂投资超过 10 亿美元，拥有 1,500 名员工。该公司表示，其美国工厂将是第一家完全转向电动汽车生产的工厂。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Volvo Cars Is Completing Plans for IPO in Stockholm<blockquote>沃尔沃汽车正在完成在斯德哥尔摩的IPO计划</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVolvo Cars Is Completing Plans for IPO in Stockholm<blockquote>沃尔沃汽车正在完成在斯德哥尔摩的IPO计划</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-04 17:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing plans for an initial public offering and is set to announce details of the listing as early as Monday, in a deal that could value the car maker at as much as $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国浙江吉利控股集团有限公司旗下的瑞典汽车制造商沃尔沃汽车正在完成首次公开募股计划，最早将于周一公布上市细节，据知情人士透露，这笔交易可能对这家汽车制造商的估值高达250亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> A listing, if it goes ahead, would represent one of the car industry’s most dramatic turnarounds.Ford MotorCo., weakened by the global financial crisis, sold the Swedish company to Geelyfor $1.8 billion in 2010.</p><p><blockquote>如果上市成行，将代表汽车行业最戏剧性的转变之一。受全球金融危机影响，福特汽车公司于 2010 年以 18 亿美元的价格将这家瑞典公司出售给了吉利。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has long capitalized on a brand recognized for safety, but at the time of its sale, its product lineup had failed to excite car buyers. Geely bankrolled Volvo’s recovery over the next decade, opening China as a market for the brand and providing financing to help the company revamp its model offerings.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃长期以来一直利用一个以安全著称的品牌，但在出售时，其产品阵容未能激发购车者的兴趣。吉利在接下来的十年里为沃尔沃的复苏提供了资金，将中国作为沃尔沃品牌的市场开放市场，并提供融资帮助沃尔沃改进其车型产品。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Volvo is profitable, with a road map for electric-model rollouts that is ahead of some competitors. Its brand is back in fashion in the U.S. and elsewhere. It now competes with German premium brands, including BMW makerBayerische Motoren WerkeAG,VolkswagenAG’sAudi brand andDaimlerAG’sMercedes-Benz.</p><p><blockquote>如今，沃尔沃已实现盈利，其电动车型推出路线图领先于一些竞争对手。它的品牌在美国和其他地方重新流行起来。它现在与德国高端品牌竞争，包括宝马制造商巴伐利亚汽车公司、大众汽车公司的沙特品牌和戴姆勒公司的梅赛德斯-奔驰。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of this year, Volvo reported a 41% increase in sales over the same period last year, to 380,757 vehicles. The company’s sales in the U.S. rose 47% to 63,754 vehicles. Europe remains Volvo’s biggest market.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，沃尔沃的销量比去年同期增长了41%，达到380,757辆。该公司在美国的销量增长了 47%，达到 63,754 辆。欧洲仍然是沃尔沃最大的市场。</blockquote></p><p> At a valuation of $25 billion, Volvo would be bigger than European car maker&nbsp;Renault&nbsp;SA,which has a market value of a little more than $10 billion. That is despite Volvo selling a fraction of the cars Renault sells each year. Volvo’s size, though, would pale against the world’s biggest car makers, including&nbsp;General MotorsCo.and Volkswagen, underscoring the competitive challenge the Swedish company faces. Its value would also sharply trail the $767.5 billion market capitalization of electric-vehicle leaderTeslaInc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃的估值为 250 亿美元，将超过市值略高于 100 亿美元的欧洲汽车制造商雷诺公司。尽管沃尔沃每年的销量只是雷诺每年销量的一小部分。不过，沃尔沃的规模与通用汽车公司和大众汽车等全球最大的汽车制造商相比相形见绌，这凸显了这家瑞典公司面临的竞争挑战。其价值也将大幅落后于电动汽车领导者特斯拉公司 7,675 亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a listing would provide investors another competitor to bet on in an auto-industry race to roll out electric vehicles. Volvo was the first conventional auto maker to begin phasing out internal-combustion engines, ending its production of cars only powered by fossil fuels in 2019. Since then, every new Volvo is either a fully electric or hybrid model.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上市仍将为投资者在汽车行业推出电动汽车的竞赛中提供另一个可以押注的竞争对手。沃尔沃是第一家开始逐步淘汰内燃机的传统汽车制造商，并于 2019 年停止生产仅使用化石燃料的汽车。从那时起，每辆新沃尔沃都是全电动或混合动力车型。</blockquote></p><p> Most big auto makers have since said that they also will be phasing out conventional engines in new vehicles, by around 2035.</p><p><blockquote>此后，大多数大型汽车制造商都表示，到 2035 年左右，他们还将逐步淘汰新车中的传统发动机。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has floated the idea of a possible listing as far back as 2018, and in May said it&nbsp;was considering an IPO&nbsp;on the Stockholm stock exchange. Such a listing could provide the company a broader shareholder base and greater independence from its Chinese investors. In September, Reuters reported that Volvo was in talks to list its shares in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃早在 2018 年就提出了可能上市的想法，并于 5 月份表示正在考虑在斯德哥尔摩证券交易所 IPO。这样的上市可以为该公司提供更广泛的股东基础，并使其独立于中国投资者。9 月，路透社报道称，沃尔沃正在就未来几周内上市进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how big a stake Geely plans to sell, but it has previously indicated it would likely remain a major shareholder after any offering. A decision on the details of the listing and its public disclosure could be delayed, but people familiar with the plans said a final call was imminent.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚吉利计划出售多大的股份，但吉利此前曾表示，在发行后，吉利可能仍将是主要股东。关于上市细节及其公开披露的决定可能会推迟，但知情人士表示，最终看涨期权即将举行。</blockquote></p><p> An offering would come amid a frenzy of investor interest in electric vehicles and after an EV-focused Volvo affiliate made its own move to take advantage of that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>此次发行正值投资者对电动汽车的狂热兴趣之际，以及沃尔沃一家专注于电动汽车的子公司采取了自己的行动来利用这种热情之后。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, Polestar, a Swedish electric-vehicle maker jointly owned by Volvo, Geely and others, announced plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition company and list in New York in a deal that would value the Swedish EV company&nbsp;at roughly $20 billion.</p><p><blockquote>上周，沃尔沃、吉利等公司共同拥有的瑞典电动汽车制造商Polestar宣布计划与一家特殊目的收购公司合并，并在纽约上市，这笔交易对这家瑞典电动汽车公司的估值约为200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo Cars said last month that it expected to own close to 50% of the combined company after completion of Polestar’s merger with Gores Guggenheim Inc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃汽车上个月表示，在 Polestar 与 Gores Guggenheim Inc. 完成合并后，沃尔沃汽车预计将拥有合并后公司近 50% 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> The Polestar deal generated a pathway for Volvo to pursue its own offering by assigning a value of about $10 billion to Volvo’s stake, according to some of the people familiar with Volvo’s listing plans.</p><p><blockquote>据一些熟悉沃尔沃上市计划的人士透露，Polestar 交易通过向沃尔沃的股份分配约 100 亿美元的价值，为沃尔沃追求自己的收购开辟了道路。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Volvo and Geely backed away from considerations of merging Volvo with Geely Auto Group, raising expectations that the company would pursue a separate listing and greater independence from Geely Holding.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，沃尔沃和吉利放弃了将沃尔沃与吉利汽车集团合并的考虑，这引发了人们对该公司将寻求单独上市并更加独立于吉利控股的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Volvo Cars is especially well-positioned to deliver continued growth and harness the full potential of electrification and the delivery of safe autonomous-drive functions,” Eric Li, chairman of Geely Holding, said in May.</p><p><blockquote>“吉利控股公司董事长埃里克-李（Eric Li）在 5 月份表示：”沃尔沃汽车在实现持续增长、充分发挥电气化潜力和提供安全自动驾驶功能方面处于特别有利的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Ford bought Volvo in 1999 for 50 billion Swedish kronor&nbsp;, or about $6.47 billion at the time of the transaction. At the time, Volvo had 28,000 employees and produced about 400,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>福特于 1999 年以 500 亿瑞典克朗（交易时约合 64.7 亿美元）收购了沃尔沃。当时，沃尔沃拥有 28,000 名员工，每年生产约 400,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> By 2009, when Ford put the company up for sale, Volvo was struggling. After Geely stepped in, it poured in money. Over the course of a decade, Geely invested more than $11 billion, financing a modernization of the company’s model lineup, an early shift into electric vehicles, and factories in China that helped Volvo cash in on China’s surging appetite for Western cars.</p><p><blockquote>到 2009 年，当福特将公司出售时，沃尔沃正陷入困境。吉利介入后，砸钱。在十年间，吉利投资了 110 多亿美元，为公司车型阵容的现代化、尽早转向电动汽车以及在中国建立工厂提供了资金，帮助沃尔沃利用了中国对西方汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In 2018, Volvo opened its first U.S. factory. The brand had once been a household name in suburban America in the 1970s. But it had to rebuild its business in the world’s most lucrative car market.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，沃尔沃开设了第一家美国工厂。这个品牌在20世纪70年代曾是美国郊区家喻户晓的名字。但它必须在世界上最赚钱的汽车市场重建业务。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo produces the S60 sedan in Charleston, S.C. Next year, the South Carolina plant intends to produce an electric version of the company’s XC90, a large, premium sport-utility vehicle. Volvo has invested more than $1 billion in the plant and employs 1,500 people there. The company has said that its U.S. plant will be the first to shift entirely to electric-car production.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃在南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿生产 S60 轿车明年，南卡罗来纳州工厂打算生产该公司 XC90 的电动版，这是一款大型高端运动型多功能车。沃尔沃已在该工厂投资超过 10 亿美元，拥有 1,500 名员工。该公司表示，其美国工厂将是第一家完全转向电动汽车生产的工厂。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/volvo-cars-is-finalizing-plans-for-ipo-in-stockholm-11633283394?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VLVLY":"Volvo AB","00175":"吉利汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/volvo-cars-is-finalizing-plans-for-ipo-in-stockholm-11633283394?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183951893","content_text":"Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing plans for an initial public offering and is set to announce details of the listing as early as Monday, in a deal that could value the car maker at as much as $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.\nA listing, if it goes ahead, would represent one of the car industry’s most dramatic turnarounds.Ford MotorCo., weakened by the global financial crisis, sold the Swedish company to Geelyfor $1.8 billion in 2010.\nVolvo has long capitalized on a brand recognized for safety, but at the time of its sale, its product lineup had failed to excite car buyers. Geely bankrolled Volvo’s recovery over the next decade, opening China as a market for the brand and providing financing to help the company revamp its model offerings.\nToday, Volvo is profitable, with a road map for electric-model rollouts that is ahead of some competitors. Its brand is back in fashion in the U.S. and elsewhere. It now competes with German premium brands, including BMW makerBayerische Motoren WerkeAG,VolkswagenAG’sAudi brand andDaimlerAG’sMercedes-Benz.\nFor the first half of this year, Volvo reported a 41% increase in sales over the same period last year, to 380,757 vehicles. The company’s sales in the U.S. rose 47% to 63,754 vehicles. Europe remains Volvo’s biggest market.\nAt a valuation of $25 billion, Volvo would be bigger than European car maker Renault SA,which has a market value of a little more than $10 billion. That is despite Volvo selling a fraction of the cars Renault sells each year. Volvo’s size, though, would pale against the world’s biggest car makers, including General MotorsCo.and Volkswagen, underscoring the competitive challenge the Swedish company faces. Its value would also sharply trail the $767.5 billion market capitalization of electric-vehicle leaderTeslaInc.\nStill, a listing would provide investors another competitor to bet on in an auto-industry race to roll out electric vehicles. Volvo was the first conventional auto maker to begin phasing out internal-combustion engines, ending its production of cars only powered by fossil fuels in 2019. Since then, every new Volvo is either a fully electric or hybrid model.\nMost big auto makers have since said that they also will be phasing out conventional engines in new vehicles, by around 2035.\nVolvo has floated the idea of a possible listing as far back as 2018, and in May said it was considering an IPO on the Stockholm stock exchange. Such a listing could provide the company a broader shareholder base and greater independence from its Chinese investors. In September, Reuters reported that Volvo was in talks to list its shares in the coming weeks.\nIt isn’t clear how big a stake Geely plans to sell, but it has previously indicated it would likely remain a major shareholder after any offering. A decision on the details of the listing and its public disclosure could be delayed, but people familiar with the plans said a final call was imminent.\nAn offering would come amid a frenzy of investor interest in electric vehicles and after an EV-focused Volvo affiliate made its own move to take advantage of that enthusiasm.\nLast week, Polestar, a Swedish electric-vehicle maker jointly owned by Volvo, Geely and others, announced plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition company and list in New York in a deal that would value the Swedish EV company at roughly $20 billion.\nVolvo Cars said last month that it expected to own close to 50% of the combined company after completion of Polestar’s merger with Gores Guggenheim Inc.\nThe Polestar deal generated a pathway for Volvo to pursue its own offering by assigning a value of about $10 billion to Volvo’s stake, according to some of the people familiar with Volvo’s listing plans.\nEarlier this year, Volvo and Geely backed away from considerations of merging Volvo with Geely Auto Group, raising expectations that the company would pursue a separate listing and greater independence from Geely Holding.\n“Volvo Cars is especially well-positioned to deliver continued growth and harness the full potential of electrification and the delivery of safe autonomous-drive functions,” Eric Li, chairman of Geely Holding, said in May.\nFord bought Volvo in 1999 for 50 billion Swedish kronor , or about $6.47 billion at the time of the transaction. At the time, Volvo had 28,000 employees and produced about 400,000 vehicles a year.\nBy 2009, when Ford put the company up for sale, Volvo was struggling. After Geely stepped in, it poured in money. Over the course of a decade, Geely invested more than $11 billion, financing a modernization of the company’s model lineup, an early shift into electric vehicles, and factories in China that helped Volvo cash in on China’s surging appetite for Western cars.\nIn 2018, Volvo opened its first U.S. factory. The brand had once been a household name in suburban America in the 1970s. But it had to rebuild its business in the world’s most lucrative car market.\nVolvo produces the S60 sedan in Charleston, S.C. Next year, the South Carolina plant intends to produce an electric version of the company’s XC90, a large, premium sport-utility vehicle. Volvo has invested more than $1 billion in the plant and employs 1,500 people there. The company has said that its U.S. plant will be the first to shift entirely to electric-car production.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00175":0.9,"VLVLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867095767,"gmtCreate":1633160054571,"gmtModify":1633161157402,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read for those who are invested in EV stocks. Marco relevant for the likes of other American EVs including Lucid.&nbsp;","listText":"Good read for those who are invested in EV stocks. Marco relevant for the likes of other American EVs including Lucid.&nbsp;","text":"Good read for those who are invested in EV stocks. Marco relevant for the likes of other American EVs including Lucid.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867095767","repostId":"868394394","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":868394394,"gmtCreate":1632589568418,"gmtModify":1632641593409,"author":{"id":"3480981608385315","authorId":"3480981608385315","name":"猛虎财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f4cecdb84af1583ad2d12f02487a5e1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480981608385315","authorIdStr":"3480981608385315"},"themes":[],"title":"2021年新能源汽车下半年你更看好谁？这篇文章告诉你答案！","htmlText":"摘要：2021年新能源汽车已经进入下半年，面对“芯片荒”，动力原材料大幅涨价等，新能源汽车面临不小的压力。我这看主要对特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏、理想、比亚迪五大新能源汽车公司进行对比分析，为大家提供一些参考。特斯拉2021年8月中国汽车销量44,264辆，环比增34.2%，同比增长275%。蔚来受到马来西亚等地的疫情影响，8月交付量为5880台，同比增长48.3%，环比下25.9%。小鹏汽车8月总交付7,214台，连续2个月交付量超7千。理想8月交付9433辆理想ONE，再创交付新纪录。特斯拉2021年8月中国汽车销量44,264辆，环比增34.2%，同比增长275%。比亚迪2021年8月新能源车累计销量为60508辆，同比增长了331.9%。据最新报道，马来西亚目前疫情任然不乐观，汽车芯片短缺状况进一步加剧。预计三季度“芯片荒”将进一步加剧。根据资料显示，马来西亚是全球封测重地，约有50家全球半导体巨头在马来西亚设立封测厂，包括博通、美光、意法、英飞凌等。马来西亚在半导体的封测业务占据全球近13%的市场份额。近期，丰田、大众、福特、通用等多家跨国汽车企业近期宣布减产。中汽协有关人士预测，汽车芯片危机或持续至明年春季。五大新能源汽车公司交付量对比今年第二季度，五家车企中，特斯拉交付量最高，交付超过20w辆，新能源龙头不可撼动。比亚迪赶超迅速，二季度交付达到10w量。蔚来、小鹏、理想二季度分别交付2.19万辆、1.74万辆、1.76w辆。整体来看，特斯拉稳步上涨，密切关注德州和柏林Giga超级工厂的动向。蔚来受到马来西亚等地的疫情影响，三季度交付将受到影响。小鹏P5预计10月开始交付，预计四季度交付将突破1.5w量。随着DMI的持续放量，预计比亚迪下半年交付将超乎你的想象，但是短期股票涨幅过大，处于震荡行情。理想ONE的交付数据确实亮眼，预计下半年将再创新高。8月新能源车出口呈现爆","listText":"摘要：2021年新能源汽车已经进入下半年，面对“芯片荒”，动力原材料大幅涨价等，新能源汽车面临不小的压力。我这看主要对特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏、理想、比亚迪五大新能源汽车公司进行对比分析，为大家提供一些参考。特斯拉2021年8月中国汽车销量44,264辆，环比增34.2%，同比增长275%。蔚来受到马来西亚等地的疫情影响，8月交付量为5880台，同比增长48.3%，环比下25.9%。小鹏汽车8月总交付7,214台，连续2个月交付量超7千。理想8月交付9433辆理想ONE，再创交付新纪录。特斯拉2021年8月中国汽车销量44,264辆，环比增34.2%，同比增长275%。比亚迪2021年8月新能源车累计销量为60508辆，同比增长了331.9%。据最新报道，马来西亚目前疫情任然不乐观，汽车芯片短缺状况进一步加剧。预计三季度“芯片荒”将进一步加剧。根据资料显示，马来西亚是全球封测重地，约有50家全球半导体巨头在马来西亚设立封测厂，包括博通、美光、意法、英飞凌等。马来西亚在半导体的封测业务占据全球近13%的市场份额。近期，丰田、大众、福特、通用等多家跨国汽车企业近期宣布减产。中汽协有关人士预测，汽车芯片危机或持续至明年春季。五大新能源汽车公司交付量对比今年第二季度，五家车企中，特斯拉交付量最高，交付超过20w辆，新能源龙头不可撼动。比亚迪赶超迅速，二季度交付达到10w量。蔚来、小鹏、理想二季度分别交付2.19万辆、1.74万辆、1.76w辆。整体来看，特斯拉稳步上涨，密切关注德州和柏林Giga超级工厂的动向。蔚来受到马来西亚等地的疫情影响，三季度交付将受到影响。小鹏P5预计10月开始交付，预计四季度交付将突破1.5w量。随着DMI的持续放量，预计比亚迪下半年交付将超乎你的想象，但是短期股票涨幅过大，处于震荡行情。理想ONE的交付数据确实亮眼，预计下半年将再创新高。8月新能源车出口呈现爆","text":"摘要：2021年新能源汽车已经进入下半年，面对“芯片荒”，动力原材料大幅涨价等，新能源汽车面临不小的压力。我这看主要对特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏、理想、比亚迪五大新能源汽车公司进行对比分析，为大家提供一些参考。特斯拉2021年8月中国汽车销量44,264辆，环比增34.2%，同比增长275%。蔚来受到马来西亚等地的疫情影响，8月交付量为5880台，同比增长48.3%，环比下25.9%。小鹏汽车8月总交付7,214台，连续2个月交付量超7千。理想8月交付9433辆理想ONE，再创交付新纪录。特斯拉2021年8月中国汽车销量44,264辆，环比增34.2%，同比增长275%。比亚迪2021年8月新能源车累计销量为60508辆，同比增长了331.9%。据最新报道，马来西亚目前疫情任然不乐观，汽车芯片短缺状况进一步加剧。预计三季度“芯片荒”将进一步加剧。根据资料显示，马来西亚是全球封测重地，约有50家全球半导体巨头在马来西亚设立封测厂，包括博通、美光、意法、英飞凌等。马来西亚在半导体的封测业务占据全球近13%的市场份额。近期，丰田、大众、福特、通用等多家跨国汽车企业近期宣布减产。中汽协有关人士预测，汽车芯片危机或持续至明年春季。五大新能源汽车公司交付量对比今年第二季度，五家车企中，特斯拉交付量最高，交付超过20w辆，新能源龙头不可撼动。比亚迪赶超迅速，二季度交付达到10w量。蔚来、小鹏、理想二季度分别交付2.19万辆、1.74万辆、1.76w辆。整体来看，特斯拉稳步上涨，密切关注德州和柏林Giga超级工厂的动向。蔚来受到马来西亚等地的疫情影响，三季度交付将受到影响。小鹏P5预计10月开始交付，预计四季度交付将突破1.5w量。随着DMI的持续放量，预计比亚迪下半年交付将超乎你的想象，但是短期股票涨幅过大，处于震荡行情。理想ONE的交付数据确实亮眼，预计下半年将再创新高。8月新能源车出口呈现爆","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd8e5aefca8c6bf2abaa35d84a4fe193","width":"688","height":"427"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499b46619fe4896dcd48a2da988ab27e","width":"688","height":"425"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9135bc116212846e47b08e32ff7b14","width":"688","height":"423"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868394394","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884138536,"gmtCreate":1631865861925,"gmtModify":1632805711251,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884138536","repostId":"1189843549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189843549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631864545,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189843549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD 股票：强劲势头和实现强劲复合年回报的道路</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189843549","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded down with junk bonds.</li>  <li>Today, AMD's tech is getting positive reviews, the balance sheet is cleaned up, and there are big opportunities to continue grabbing market share in data centers.</li>  <li>AMD just raised revenue and margin guidance, with some analysts expecting AMD to earn as much as $7 per share by 2024.</li>  <li>Why momentum investing works and how to execute it with AMD.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vchal/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在2015年和2016年的黑暗日子里，AMD的交易价格不到3美元，该公司充斥着垃圾债券。</li><li>如今，AMD的技术正在获得积极的评价，资产负债表正在被清理，并且有很大的机会继续抢占数据中心的市场份额。</li><li>AMD 刚刚上调了收入和利润率指引，一些分析师预计 AMD 到 2024 年每股收益将高达 7 美元。</li><li>为什么动量投资有效，以及如何使用AMD执行它。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vchal/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., better known as&nbsp;AMD, is one of the most popular NASDAQ stocks over the past few years with young investors, many of whom are into cryptocurrency and/or gaming. CEO&nbsp;Lisa Su&nbsp;took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of&nbsp;positive press&nbsp;for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices，Inc.，更广为人知的名字是AMD，是过去几年最受年轻投资者欢迎的纳斯达克股票之一，其中许多人对加密货币和/或游戏感兴趣。首席执行官Lisa Su于2014年接任，为公司带来了世界一流的工程知识和商业街智慧。AMD 迅速多元化开发新的产品线，此后因其以合理的价格提供性能而获得了大量正面评价。如果你看一下 AMD 的长期价格图表，你会发现它是一只非常繁荣和萧条的股票，显然，半导体业务是周期性的，但前任管理层有过度杠杆化公司的习惯，导致回报低于其他情况，因为大部分回报流向了债权人而不是股东。现在，AMD 在股价和业务方面都有很多积极的势头。AMD会继续获胜吗？我相信是的，我会解释为什么。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d63abb98a3a3779a37169300fade7a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst&nbsp;he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company&nbsp;now has&nbsp;an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.</li>  <li>AMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some&nbsp;deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.</li>  <li>The party may just be getting started. A&nbsp;recent piece&nbsp;in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.</li>  <li>Management may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has&nbsp;crushed earnings&nbsp;estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.</li>  <li>AMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.</li>  <li>AMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.</li>  <li>Intel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.</li>  <li>There are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&amp;D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去，缺乏多元化和过多的杠杆迫使 AMD 在经济衰退期间通过垃圾债券（通常是通过可转换债务）筹集资金。可转换债务价格昂贵，因为它通常支付利息并稀释股东。一般来说，可转换债券通常受到精明的高净值投资者和机构的青睐，而散户投资者则倾向于认为普通股代表整个公司（事实并非如此），并允许华尔街对它们进行自由射击。可转换债务往往由信用评级较低和/或投机性商业前景的公司发行。随着时间的推移，AMD 和美光 (MU) 等其他芯片公司的财务状况大大改善，导致在许多情况下不再需要可转换债务。半导体的新一代管理团队已经找到了如何更好地管理风险和利用杠杆，使他们能够牢牢抓住21世纪任何行业最大的增长机会之一。一般来说，你可以通过投资至少具有投资级信用评级的公司的股票来解决过度杠杆问题（研究表明，信用评级高的公司的回报往往更好）。AMD在业务多元化和减少债务方面的努力得到了回报，该公司现在拥有投资级信用评级。我预计市场将以相对于整个市场越来越低的利率提供 AMD capital，从而形成一个良性循环，这将成为未来的巨大推动力。</li><li>AMD已经宣布他们正在收购芯片制造商赛灵思（XLNX），一致的意见似乎是从战略角度来看，这是一笔不错的交易（这里有一些交易分析）。不过，这笔交易实际上可能会也可能不会完成，中国监管机构需要批准这笔交易。如果交易没有完成，我不认为它会给 AMD 带来很大的价格风险，但这将是一个很好的机会。</li><li>派对可能才刚刚开始。《巴伦周刊》最近的一篇文章表明，如果 AMD 将部分利润再投资于该业务，那么该公司在 2024 年的每股收益可能会超过 7 美元。</li><li>管理层对盈利指引可能相当保守，该公司最近几个季度的盈利预期大幅下调就证明了这一点。大多数分析师只对 2023 年做出了预测，但他们确实认为 AMD 的盈利每年增长 20% 以上。我认为这些估计太低了，AMD 股票的升值应该或多或少与盈利增长保持一致。2022 年收益为 3.50 美元，市盈率为 36 倍，这意味着 AMD 的 12 个月目标价约为 126 美元（上涨 20%），如果他们能够赶上供应链，还会有更多上涨空间。</li><li>AMD 认为数据中心是一个每年超过 300 亿美元的潜在市场机会。正如最近的电话会议所指出的，AMD 正在稳步拉动服务器类别（包括数据中心）的市场份额。这里的想法是，AMD在过去几年里打造了比英特尔（INTC）更优越的技术，迫使英特尔迎头赶上（这在技术领域需要很长时间），给了AMD一个压制优势的机会。</li><li>AMD将制造外包给台湾，如果中国大陆/台湾地缘政治局势发生变化，这确实会给公司带来风险。此外，赛灵思的收购需要中国的批准，这意味着AMD面临着来自中国几个不同角度的风险。到目前为止，芯片短缺在一定程度上限制了 AMD 供应市场的能力，其交货时间高于竞争对手。另一方面，如果芯片短缺确实有所缓解，这可能是该公司的积极催化剂。</li><li>英特尔是半导体行业的大象，但自苏黎世接手以来，AMD 处处击败英特尔。英特尔股票的市盈率比 AMD 低得多，但增长前景较低。最近有消息称，英特尔愿意降低服务器CPU价格以赢回业务，但AMD芯片在性能和能耗方面比较有利。赢得半导体市场份额不仅仅是降价，如果你销售低效的廉价芯片，导致你的客户不得不在电力上花费更多，那么降价对你的帮助就不会像你想象的那么大。由于数据中心持续的运营成本，无论竞争对手采取何种定价策略，AMD都可以单独通过构建技术来赢得市场份额。</li><li>AMD 存在宏观和微观风险。宏观风险是众所周知的，主要与地缘政治、供应链问题和全球经济有关。AMD的微观问题通常与其作为失败者的永久地位有关。例如，英特尔拥有更大的市场份额和更多的研发资源，但AMD在技术上获得了相对于他们的优势。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Academic research&nbsp;generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the&nbsp;disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.</p><p><blockquote>学术研究普遍认为，投资者在为成功企业的股票定价时，对成功的反应不足。这与行为金融因素有关，例如投资者在持有亏损股票的同时获取利润并将其花掉（称为处置效应），以及商业因素（良好的管理层往往会不断获胜）。在许多情况下，这导致赢得股票的年回报率超过 20%。虽然半导体业务具有周期性，这意味着当周期不可避免地再次转变时，AMD 股东可能希望出售，但 AMD 是目前市场上最干净的动量股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.</p><p><blockquote>如果该公司在未来 12 个月内再上涨 20-25%，我一点也不会感到惊讶。如果《巴伦周刊》的盈利看涨期权正确，如果市盈率至少能保持在 28-30 倍范围内，到 2024 年，AMD 的交易价格应该会接近 200 美元，年复合回报率约为 25%。尽管存在与半导体周期、地缘政治和竞争相关的风险，但 AMD 似乎是当今科技领域最值得购买的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD 股票：强劲势头和实现强劲复合年回报的道路</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD 股票：强劲势头和实现强劲复合年回报的道路</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded down with junk bonds.</li>  <li>Today, AMD's tech is getting positive reviews, the balance sheet is cleaned up, and there are big opportunities to continue grabbing market share in data centers.</li>  <li>AMD just raised revenue and margin guidance, with some analysts expecting AMD to earn as much as $7 per share by 2024.</li>  <li>Why momentum investing works and how to execute it with AMD.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vchal/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在2015年和2016年的黑暗日子里，AMD的交易价格不到3美元，该公司充斥着垃圾债券。</li><li>如今，AMD的技术正在获得积极的评价，资产负债表正在被清理，并且有很大的机会继续抢占数据中心的市场份额。</li><li>AMD 刚刚上调了收入和利润率指引，一些分析师预计 AMD 到 2024 年每股收益将高达 7 美元。</li><li>为什么动量投资有效，以及如何使用AMD执行它。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vchal/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., better known as&nbsp;AMD, is one of the most popular NASDAQ stocks over the past few years with young investors, many of whom are into cryptocurrency and/or gaming. CEO&nbsp;Lisa Su&nbsp;took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of&nbsp;positive press&nbsp;for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices，Inc.，更广为人知的名字是AMD，是过去几年最受年轻投资者欢迎的纳斯达克股票之一，其中许多人对加密货币和/或游戏感兴趣。首席执行官Lisa Su于2014年接任，为公司带来了世界一流的工程知识和商业街智慧。AMD 迅速多元化开发新的产品线，此后因其以合理的价格提供性能而获得了大量正面评价。如果你看一下 AMD 的长期价格图表，你会发现它是一只非常繁荣和萧条的股票，显然，半导体业务是周期性的，但前任管理层有过度杠杆化公司的习惯，导致回报低于其他情况，因为大部分回报流向了债权人而不是股东。现在，AMD 在股价和业务方面都有很多积极的势头。AMD会继续获胜吗？我相信是的，我会解释为什么。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d63abb98a3a3779a37169300fade7a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst&nbsp;he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company&nbsp;now has&nbsp;an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.</li>  <li>AMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some&nbsp;deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.</li>  <li>The party may just be getting started. A&nbsp;recent piece&nbsp;in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.</li>  <li>Management may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has&nbsp;crushed earnings&nbsp;estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.</li>  <li>AMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.</li>  <li>AMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.</li>  <li>Intel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.</li>  <li>There are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&amp;D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去，缺乏多元化和过多的杠杆迫使 AMD 在经济衰退期间通过垃圾债券（通常是通过可转换债务）筹集资金。可转换债务价格昂贵，因为它通常支付利息并稀释股东。一般来说，可转换债券通常受到精明的高净值投资者和机构的青睐，而散户投资者则倾向于认为普通股代表整个公司（事实并非如此），并允许华尔街对它们进行自由射击。可转换债务往往由信用评级较低和/或投机性商业前景的公司发行。随着时间的推移，AMD 和美光 (MU) 等其他芯片公司的财务状况大大改善，导致在许多情况下不再需要可转换债务。半导体的新一代管理团队已经找到了如何更好地管理风险和利用杠杆，使他们能够牢牢抓住21世纪任何行业最大的增长机会之一。一般来说，你可以通过投资至少具有投资级信用评级的公司的股票来解决过度杠杆问题（研究表明，信用评级高的公司的回报往往更好）。AMD在业务多元化和减少债务方面的努力得到了回报，该公司现在拥有投资级信用评级。我预计市场将以相对于整个市场越来越低的利率提供 AMD capital，从而形成一个良性循环，这将成为未来的巨大推动力。</li><li>AMD已经宣布他们正在收购芯片制造商赛灵思（XLNX），一致的意见似乎是从战略角度来看，这是一笔不错的交易（这里有一些交易分析）。不过，这笔交易实际上可能会也可能不会完成，中国监管机构需要批准这笔交易。如果交易没有完成，我不认为它会给 AMD 带来很大的价格风险，但这将是一个很好的机会。</li><li>派对可能才刚刚开始。《巴伦周刊》最近的一篇文章表明，如果 AMD 将部分利润再投资于该业务，那么该公司在 2024 年的每股收益可能会超过 7 美元。</li><li>管理层对盈利指引可能相当保守，该公司最近几个季度的盈利预期大幅下调就证明了这一点。大多数分析师只对 2023 年做出了预测，但他们确实认为 AMD 的盈利每年增长 20% 以上。我认为这些估计太低了，AMD 股票的升值应该或多或少与盈利增长保持一致。2022 年收益为 3.50 美元，市盈率为 36 倍，这意味着 AMD 的 12 个月目标价约为 126 美元（上涨 20%），如果他们能够赶上供应链，还会有更多上涨空间。</li><li>AMD 认为数据中心是一个每年超过 300 亿美元的潜在市场机会。正如最近的电话会议所指出的，AMD 正在稳步拉动服务器类别（包括数据中心）的市场份额。这里的想法是，AMD在过去几年里打造了比英特尔（INTC）更优越的技术，迫使英特尔迎头赶上（这在技术领域需要很长时间），给了AMD一个压制优势的机会。</li><li>AMD将制造外包给台湾，如果中国大陆/台湾地缘政治局势发生变化，这确实会给公司带来风险。此外，赛灵思的收购需要中国的批准，这意味着AMD面临着来自中国几个不同角度的风险。到目前为止，芯片短缺在一定程度上限制了 AMD 供应市场的能力，其交货时间高于竞争对手。另一方面，如果芯片短缺确实有所缓解，这可能是该公司的积极催化剂。</li><li>英特尔是半导体行业的大象，但自苏黎世接手以来，AMD 处处击败英特尔。英特尔股票的市盈率比 AMD 低得多，但增长前景较低。最近有消息称，英特尔愿意降低服务器CPU价格以赢回业务，但AMD芯片在性能和能耗方面比较有利。赢得半导体市场份额不仅仅是降价，如果你销售低效的廉价芯片，导致你的客户不得不在电力上花费更多，那么降价对你的帮助就不会像你想象的那么大。由于数据中心持续的运营成本，无论竞争对手采取何种定价策略，AMD都可以单独通过构建技术来赢得市场份额。</li><li>AMD 存在宏观和微观风险。宏观风险是众所周知的，主要与地缘政治、供应链问题和全球经济有关。AMD的微观问题通常与其作为失败者的永久地位有关。例如，英特尔拥有更大的市场份额和更多的研发资源，但AMD在技术上获得了相对于他们的优势。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Academic research&nbsp;generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the&nbsp;disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.</p><p><blockquote>学术研究普遍认为，投资者在为成功企业的股票定价时，对成功的反应不足。这与行为金融因素有关，例如投资者在持有亏损股票的同时获取利润并将其花掉（称为处置效应），以及商业因素（良好的管理层往往会不断获胜）。在许多情况下，这导致赢得股票的年回报率超过 20%。虽然半导体业务具有周期性，这意味着当周期不可避免地再次转变时，AMD 股东可能希望出售，但 AMD 是目前市场上最干净的动量股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.</p><p><blockquote>如果该公司在未来 12 个月内再上涨 20-25%，我一点也不会感到惊讶。如果《巴伦周刊》的盈利看涨期权正确，如果市盈率至少能保持在 28-30 倍范围内，到 2024 年，AMD 的交易价格应该会接近 200 美元，年复合回报率约为 25%。尽管存在与半导体周期、地缘政治和竞争相关的风险，但 AMD 似乎是当今科技领域最值得购买的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455692-amd-stock-strong-momentum-and-path-to-strong-compounded-annual-returns\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455692-amd-stock-strong-momentum-and-path-to-strong-compounded-annual-returns","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189843549","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded down with junk bonds.\nToday, AMD's tech is getting positive reviews, the balance sheet is cleaned up, and there are big opportunities to continue grabbing market share in data centers.\nAMD just raised revenue and margin guidance, with some analysts expecting AMD to earn as much as $7 per share by 2024.\nWhy momentum investing works and how to execute it with AMD.\n\nvchal/iStock via Getty Images\nAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc., better known as AMD, is one of the most popular NASDAQ stocks over the past few years with young investors, many of whom are into cryptocurrency and/or gaming. CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of positive press for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.\nData by YCharts\n\nIn the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company now has an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.\nAMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.\nThe party may just be getting started. A recent piece in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.\nManagement may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has crushed earnings estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.\nAMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.\nAMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.\nIntel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.\nThere are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them. To win in the market, AMD must press this advantage and reinvest in R&D. After all, investing in technology is high-risk, high-reward. Winning tech companies make fortunes for their investors while losing ones tend to be forgotten to history. This is one reason why momentum investing and technology stocks go hand in hand.\n\nAMD Stock Forecast\nAcademic research generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.\nI wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884138371,"gmtCreate":1631865788093,"gmtModify":1632805711735,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Maybe.&nbsp;","listText":"Maybe.&nbsp;","text":"Maybe.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884138371","repostId":"1183212407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183212407","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631865011,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183212407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 15:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: An Investing Wildcard<blockquote>Palantir：投资通配符</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183212407","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir offers a great service, but future profitability and growth remain a mystery.\nFurt","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir offers a great service, but future profitability and growth remain a mystery.</li>  <li>Furthermore, an investment in Palantir also means owning a variety of SPACs and even gold bars.</li>  <li>With all this uncertainty baked into Palantir's future, I find it hard to value the company and justify owning a significant position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bb60fe633f55b29d5a1b94157845f3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 提供了出色的服务，但未来的盈利能力和增长仍然是个谜。</li><li>此外，投资Palantir还意味着拥有各种SPAC甚至金条。</li><li>由于 Palantir 的未来充满了所有这些不确定性，我发现很难评估该公司的价值并证明拥有重要职位是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>GOCMEN/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is perhaps one of the hardest companies to value and believe me I have tried. There are just too many uncertain variables when it comes to this company. What does Palantir even do? How profitable can it be? How much dilution can we expect? And what new and “unexpected” investments will the company make going forward?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) 可能是我尝试过的最难评估的公司之一。谈到这家公司，不确定的变量太多了。Palantir到底是做什么的？能有多赚钱？我们能期待多少稀释？公司未来还会进行哪些 “意想不到 ”的新投资？</blockquote></p><p> All of these things make for a very uncertain investment, which, in many ways, isn't justified at today’s price. At the very least, investors should apply an uncertainty discount to Palantir, since their business remains a mystery. Also, there are significant risks beyond dilution that could severely damage the company’s reputation.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都使得这项投资非常不确定，从很多方面来看，以今天的价格来看，这是不合理的。至少，投资者应该对 Palantir 给予不确定性折扣，因为他们的业务仍然是个谜。此外，除了稀释之外，还有可能严重损害公司声誉的重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe that while there are many compelling bearish points, a bull thesis can be built around the future growth of Foundry.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信，虽然有许多令人信服的看跌观点，但可以围绕铸造厂的未来增长构建看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Palantir do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是做什么的？</b></blockquote></p><p> I won’t spend too much time discussing something which I’ve already talked about extensively&nbsp;in this article. The key point I made there is that Palantir relies on having an experienced team of salesmen that can act as consultants to the businesses/institutions that use Gotham/Foundry. Far from saying that the software is useless by itself, the point I’m making is that it is so specialized that it has to be used by experts. It requires deep collaboration between experts from the company using the software and experts from Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>我不会花太多时间讨论我在本文中已经广泛讨论过的内容。我在那里提出的关键点是，Palantir依赖于拥有一支经验丰富的销售团队，他们可以作为使用Gotham/Foundry的企业/机构的顾问。我并不是说软件本身毫无用处，而是说它非常专业，必须由专家使用。它需要使用该软件的公司专家和Palantir专家之间的深度合作。</blockquote></p><p> The question then is just how much does Palantir rely on its employees and how much of the work is being done by its AI/software? In other words, what is the value split? And from a competitive standpoint, how easy would it be for former Palantir employees to create their own AI and compete with Palantir?</p><p><blockquote>那么问题就是Palantir在多大程度上依赖其员工，有多少工作是由其人工智能/软件完成的？换句话说，什么是价值拆分？从竞争的角度来看，前 Palantir 员工创建自己的人工智能并与 Palantir 竞争有多容易？</blockquote></p><p> To properly answer this question, requires a very in-depth understanding of the technology behind Gotham/Foundry and also the specific business practices of the company. Most investors and I include myself here, can only make an educated guess, but ultimately this could go either way.</p><p><blockquote>要正确回答这个问题，需要对Gotham/Foundry背后的技术以及公司的具体业务实践有非常深入的了解。包括我自己在内的大多数投资者只能做出有根据的猜测，但最终这可能是两种情况。</blockquote></p><p> From a bullish perspective, one could say that Palantir’s AI is actually learning all the time, and perhaps this makes it much harder to replace than a more traditional SaaS. On the other hand, another favourable point would be to say that, in the future, as data analytics becomes much more prevalent, companies will have more experienced employees who can therefore take some of the “burden” away from Palantir. Of course, there is a thin line between this and Palantir becoming completely replaceable.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，可以说 Palantir 的人工智能实际上一直在学习，也许这使得它比更传统的 SaaS 更难被取代。另一方面，另一个有利的观点是，在未来，随着数据分析变得更加普遍，公司将拥有更多经验丰富的员工，因此可以减轻 Palantir 的一些 “负担”。当然，这与 Palantir 变得完全可替代之间只有一线之隔。</blockquote></p><p> The more bearish perspective would be to argue that Palantir’s software is easily replaceable and not that cutting edge, and that the reliance on highly paid and specialized engineers will render the company unprofitable for years, which brings me to my next point.</p><p><blockquote>更悲观的观点是，Palantir 的软件很容易被替换，并不那么尖端，对高薪专业工程师的依赖将使公司多年无利可图，这就引出了我的下一个观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An uncertain future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with Palantir is that it is near impossible to achieve a valuation based on cash flow, or even valuation multiples. Palantir’s business is unique and it remains a mystery what kind of profit margins the company will be able to achieve moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的问题是，几乎不可能实现基于现金流的估值，甚至是估值倍数。Palantir 的业务是独一无二的，该公司未来能够实现什么样的利润率仍是个谜。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have&nbsp;tried to value Palantir&nbsp;in such a way, by forecasting its profitability to approximate that of its peers in the coming decade. However, this yielded a target price of around $16/share, once dilution was taken into account.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾尝试以这种方式对 Palantir 进行估值，预测其未来十年的盈利能力将接近同行。然而，考虑到稀释后，目标价约为每股 16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The only way one could justify an investment in Palantir would be if share dilution is drastically reduced and the company continues to grow at a rate that justifies much higher valuation multiples than the industry.In this article,I calculated what this could look like, reaching a price target of around $116 by 2030, but this uses a P/E ratio of 66, which is double the industry average.</p><p><blockquote>证明投资 Palantir 合理的唯一方法是大幅减少股票稀释，并且该公司继续以比行业高得多的估值倍数的速度增长。在本文中，我计算了这可能是什么样子，到 2030 年达到 116 美元左右的价格目标，但这使用的市盈率为 66，是行业平均水平的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The point I am trying to make is that very different price targets can be obtained under reasonable assumptions. It just really depends on your interpretation of the business and its prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我想表达的观点是，在合理的假设下，可以获得非常不同的价格目标。这真的取决于你对业务及其前景的解释。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue with Palantir is the fact that it is so susceptible to news and marketing. Palantir works with sensitive data, and any hint at the fact that this data might not be safe, as the&nbsp;recent FBI glitch, might spook prospective clients and investors.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个问题是它非常容易受到新闻和营销的影响。Palantir 处理敏感数据，任何暗示这些数据可能不安全的迹象，例如最近的联邦调查局故障，都可能会吓到潜在客户和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, as many bulls argue, Palantir’s true addressable market can’t even be quantified yet. So how exactly can we quantify ROI?</p><p><blockquote>归根结底，正如许多看涨者所说，Palantir 真正的潜在市场甚至还无法量化。那么，我们究竟如何量化投资回报率呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>A “diversified” Balance Sheet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“多元化”资产负债表</b></blockquote></p><p> To make matters even more complex, Palantir has been making a series of investments that don’t seem to necessarily be based on logic. Last month it was revealed that Palantir invested around&nbsp;$50 million in gold bars. Why exactly? A proper explanation hasn’t been offered. Of course, this investment represents a little over 2% of Palantir’s available cash, but it still makes a clear statement: Palantir is not afraid to do unexpected things.</p><p><blockquote>更复杂的是，Palantir 一直在进行一系列投资，但这些投资似乎并不一定基于逻辑。上个月有消息称，Palantir 在金条上投资了约 5000 万美元。到底为什么？目前尚未给出适当的解释。当然，这项投资仅占 Palantir 可用现金的 2% 多一点，但它仍然明确表示： Palantir 不怕做意想不到的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Most notably though, Palantir has invested in numerous SPACS in the last year, which again just adds to the uncertainty of investing in Palantir. Some of these investments include Sarcos Robotics, Roivant Sciences and Celularity. Of course, there is a common theme underpinning these investments. All the above-mentioned companies use or have committed to using Palantir’s software in the future. More recently, Palantir has&nbsp;partnered with BlackSky, a geospatial intelligence company following a successful partnership with this company.</p><p><blockquote>但最值得注意的是，Palantir 去年投资了众多 SPAC，这再次增加了投资 Palantir 的不确定性。其中一些投资包括Sarcos Robotics、Roivant Sciences和Celularity。当然，这些投资有一个共同的主题。上述所有公司都在使用或承诺将来使用 Palantir 的软件。最近，Palantir 在与地理空间情报公司 BlackSky 成功合作后，又与该公司建立了合作关系。</blockquote></p><p> The question is, are these good investments that the company is making from a position of privilege since it knows these companies well? Or is Palantir simply investing to guarantee future demand? Whichever it is, one thing is clear, the fact that Palantir is so happy to spend the money it has raised at the expense of shareholders might concern some.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，这些好的投资是否是该公司从特权地位进行的，因为它很了解这些公司？或者 Palantir 只是为了保证未来需求而进行投资？不管是哪一种，有一点是明确的，Palantir 如此乐于以股东为代价花费筹集的资金，这一事实可能会让一些人感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s road to success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的成功之路</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of the uncertainty baked into the Palantir mix, there is only, in my opinion, one argument that can justify a position in Palantir, and that is growth. To justify its price, Palantir has to grow to become much more than it is today. Most significantly, Palantir’s Foundry, which serves commercial enterprises, has to become a staple in the business world.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Palantir 组合中存在所有不确定性，在我看来，只有一个论点可以证明持有 Palantir 的合理性，那就是增长。为了证明其价格的合理性，Palantir 必须发展壮大，变得比今天多得多。最重要的是，Palantir 为商业企业服务的铸造厂必须成为商界的主要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is trying to do just this, and it is getting started by launching Foundry for Builders, which aims to target smaller companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 正试图做到这一点，它首先推出了 Foundry for Builders，旨在针对较小的公司。</blockquote></p><p>   Under Foundry for Builders, Palantir will sell Foundry to start-ups under a subscription model, first to companies connected to Palantir alumni, before expanding the initiative to other early stage companies.  Source:Yahoo Finance</p><p><blockquote>根据 Foundry for Builders，Palantir 将以订阅模式向初创企业出售 Foundry，首先出售给与 Palantir 校友有联系的公司，然后将该计划扩展到其他早期公司。资料来源：雅虎财经</blockquote></p><p> This is where Palantir investors should be looking to determine the future success of the company. If Palantir’s Foundry can prove itself useful to these early-stage companies, perhaps there is a chance that the company can grow into its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这是 Palantir 投资者应该着眼于决定公司未来成功的地方。如果 Palantir 的代工厂能证明自己对这些早期公司有用，那么该公司的估值或许就有机会增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The data analytics business will be one of the fastest-growing industries in the coming years. However, this space is incredibly competitive, and there’s a reasonable chance that successful companies today won’t be the winners of tomorrow. The data segment is comparable to the CRM and ERP business back in the 90s. In the coming years, a great majority of companies will be leveraging the power of data. But will they be using Palantir? The answer lies in which of these companies has the best “system” behind them. Palantir has shown a lot of promise, but at this price, I believe the uncertainty is too high to hold on to a significant position.</p><p><blockquote>数据分析业务将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。然而，这个领域的竞争非常激烈，今天成功的公司很有可能不会成为明天的赢家。数据领域可与90年代的CRM和ERP业务相媲美。在未来几年，绝大多数公司将利用数据的力量。但是他们会使用Palantir吗？答案在于这些公司中哪家背后的 “系统 ”最好。Palantir 表现出了很大的希望，但在这个价格下，我认为不确定性太高，无法保持重要地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: An Investing Wildcard<blockquote>Palantir：投资通配符</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: An Investing Wildcard<blockquote>Palantir：投资通配符</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 15:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir offers a great service, but future profitability and growth remain a mystery.</li>  <li>Furthermore, an investment in Palantir also means owning a variety of SPACs and even gold bars.</li>  <li>With all this uncertainty baked into Palantir's future, I find it hard to value the company and justify owning a significant position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bb60fe633f55b29d5a1b94157845f3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 提供了出色的服务，但未来的盈利能力和增长仍然是个谜。</li><li>此外，投资Palantir还意味着拥有各种SPAC甚至金条。</li><li>由于 Palantir 的未来充满了所有这些不确定性，我发现很难评估该公司的价值并证明拥有重要职位是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>GOCMEN/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is perhaps one of the hardest companies to value and believe me I have tried. There are just too many uncertain variables when it comes to this company. What does Palantir even do? How profitable can it be? How much dilution can we expect? And what new and “unexpected” investments will the company make going forward?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) 可能是我尝试过的最难评估的公司之一。谈到这家公司，不确定的变量太多了。Palantir到底是做什么的？能有多赚钱？我们能期待多少稀释？公司未来还会进行哪些 “意想不到 ”的新投资？</blockquote></p><p> All of these things make for a very uncertain investment, which, in many ways, isn't justified at today’s price. At the very least, investors should apply an uncertainty discount to Palantir, since their business remains a mystery. Also, there are significant risks beyond dilution that could severely damage the company’s reputation.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都使得这项投资非常不确定，从很多方面来看，以今天的价格来看，这是不合理的。至少，投资者应该对 Palantir 给予不确定性折扣，因为他们的业务仍然是个谜。此外，除了稀释之外，还有可能严重损害公司声誉的重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe that while there are many compelling bearish points, a bull thesis can be built around the future growth of Foundry.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信，虽然有许多令人信服的看跌观点，但可以围绕铸造厂的未来增长构建看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Palantir do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是做什么的？</b></blockquote></p><p> I won’t spend too much time discussing something which I’ve already talked about extensively&nbsp;in this article. The key point I made there is that Palantir relies on having an experienced team of salesmen that can act as consultants to the businesses/institutions that use Gotham/Foundry. Far from saying that the software is useless by itself, the point I’m making is that it is so specialized that it has to be used by experts. It requires deep collaboration between experts from the company using the software and experts from Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>我不会花太多时间讨论我在本文中已经广泛讨论过的内容。我在那里提出的关键点是，Palantir依赖于拥有一支经验丰富的销售团队，他们可以作为使用Gotham/Foundry的企业/机构的顾问。我并不是说软件本身毫无用处，而是说它非常专业，必须由专家使用。它需要使用该软件的公司专家和Palantir专家之间的深度合作。</blockquote></p><p> The question then is just how much does Palantir rely on its employees and how much of the work is being done by its AI/software? In other words, what is the value split? And from a competitive standpoint, how easy would it be for former Palantir employees to create their own AI and compete with Palantir?</p><p><blockquote>那么问题就是Palantir在多大程度上依赖其员工，有多少工作是由其人工智能/软件完成的？换句话说，什么是价值拆分？从竞争的角度来看，前 Palantir 员工创建自己的人工智能并与 Palantir 竞争有多容易？</blockquote></p><p> To properly answer this question, requires a very in-depth understanding of the technology behind Gotham/Foundry and also the specific business practices of the company. Most investors and I include myself here, can only make an educated guess, but ultimately this could go either way.</p><p><blockquote>要正确回答这个问题，需要对Gotham/Foundry背后的技术以及公司的具体业务实践有非常深入的了解。包括我自己在内的大多数投资者只能做出有根据的猜测，但最终这可能是两种情况。</blockquote></p><p> From a bullish perspective, one could say that Palantir’s AI is actually learning all the time, and perhaps this makes it much harder to replace than a more traditional SaaS. On the other hand, another favourable point would be to say that, in the future, as data analytics becomes much more prevalent, companies will have more experienced employees who can therefore take some of the “burden” away from Palantir. Of course, there is a thin line between this and Palantir becoming completely replaceable.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，可以说 Palantir 的人工智能实际上一直在学习，也许这使得它比更传统的 SaaS 更难被取代。另一方面，另一个有利的观点是，在未来，随着数据分析变得更加普遍，公司将拥有更多经验丰富的员工，因此可以减轻 Palantir 的一些 “负担”。当然，这与 Palantir 变得完全可替代之间只有一线之隔。</blockquote></p><p> The more bearish perspective would be to argue that Palantir’s software is easily replaceable and not that cutting edge, and that the reliance on highly paid and specialized engineers will render the company unprofitable for years, which brings me to my next point.</p><p><blockquote>更悲观的观点是，Palantir 的软件很容易被替换，并不那么尖端，对高薪专业工程师的依赖将使公司多年无利可图，这就引出了我的下一个观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An uncertain future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with Palantir is that it is near impossible to achieve a valuation based on cash flow, or even valuation multiples. Palantir’s business is unique and it remains a mystery what kind of profit margins the company will be able to achieve moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的问题是，几乎不可能实现基于现金流的估值，甚至是估值倍数。Palantir 的业务是独一无二的，该公司未来能够实现什么样的利润率仍是个谜。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have&nbsp;tried to value Palantir&nbsp;in such a way, by forecasting its profitability to approximate that of its peers in the coming decade. However, this yielded a target price of around $16/share, once dilution was taken into account.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾尝试以这种方式对 Palantir 进行估值，预测其未来十年的盈利能力将接近同行。然而，考虑到稀释后，目标价约为每股 16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The only way one could justify an investment in Palantir would be if share dilution is drastically reduced and the company continues to grow at a rate that justifies much higher valuation multiples than the industry.In this article,I calculated what this could look like, reaching a price target of around $116 by 2030, but this uses a P/E ratio of 66, which is double the industry average.</p><p><blockquote>证明投资 Palantir 合理的唯一方法是大幅减少股票稀释，并且该公司继续以比行业高得多的估值倍数的速度增长。在本文中，我计算了这可能是什么样子，到 2030 年达到 116 美元左右的价格目标，但这使用的市盈率为 66，是行业平均水平的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The point I am trying to make is that very different price targets can be obtained under reasonable assumptions. It just really depends on your interpretation of the business and its prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我想表达的观点是，在合理的假设下，可以获得非常不同的价格目标。这真的取决于你对业务及其前景的解释。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue with Palantir is the fact that it is so susceptible to news and marketing. Palantir works with sensitive data, and any hint at the fact that this data might not be safe, as the&nbsp;recent FBI glitch, might spook prospective clients and investors.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个问题是它非常容易受到新闻和营销的影响。Palantir 处理敏感数据，任何暗示这些数据可能不安全的迹象，例如最近的联邦调查局故障，都可能会吓到潜在客户和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, as many bulls argue, Palantir’s true addressable market can’t even be quantified yet. So how exactly can we quantify ROI?</p><p><blockquote>归根结底，正如许多看涨者所说，Palantir 真正的潜在市场甚至还无法量化。那么，我们究竟如何量化投资回报率呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>A “diversified” Balance Sheet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“多元化”资产负债表</b></blockquote></p><p> To make matters even more complex, Palantir has been making a series of investments that don’t seem to necessarily be based on logic. Last month it was revealed that Palantir invested around&nbsp;$50 million in gold bars. Why exactly? A proper explanation hasn’t been offered. Of course, this investment represents a little over 2% of Palantir’s available cash, but it still makes a clear statement: Palantir is not afraid to do unexpected things.</p><p><blockquote>更复杂的是，Palantir 一直在进行一系列投资，但这些投资似乎并不一定基于逻辑。上个月有消息称，Palantir 在金条上投资了约 5000 万美元。到底为什么？目前尚未给出适当的解释。当然，这项投资仅占 Palantir 可用现金的 2% 多一点，但它仍然明确表示： Palantir 不怕做意想不到的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Most notably though, Palantir has invested in numerous SPACS in the last year, which again just adds to the uncertainty of investing in Palantir. Some of these investments include Sarcos Robotics, Roivant Sciences and Celularity. Of course, there is a common theme underpinning these investments. All the above-mentioned companies use or have committed to using Palantir’s software in the future. More recently, Palantir has&nbsp;partnered with BlackSky, a geospatial intelligence company following a successful partnership with this company.</p><p><blockquote>但最值得注意的是，Palantir 去年投资了众多 SPAC，这再次增加了投资 Palantir 的不确定性。其中一些投资包括Sarcos Robotics、Roivant Sciences和Celularity。当然，这些投资有一个共同的主题。上述所有公司都在使用或承诺将来使用 Palantir 的软件。最近，Palantir 在与地理空间情报公司 BlackSky 成功合作后，又与该公司建立了合作关系。</blockquote></p><p> The question is, are these good investments that the company is making from a position of privilege since it knows these companies well? Or is Palantir simply investing to guarantee future demand? Whichever it is, one thing is clear, the fact that Palantir is so happy to spend the money it has raised at the expense of shareholders might concern some.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，这些好的投资是否是该公司从特权地位进行的，因为它很了解这些公司？或者 Palantir 只是为了保证未来需求而进行投资？不管是哪一种，有一点是明确的，Palantir 如此乐于以股东为代价花费筹集的资金，这一事实可能会让一些人感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s road to success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的成功之路</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of the uncertainty baked into the Palantir mix, there is only, in my opinion, one argument that can justify a position in Palantir, and that is growth. To justify its price, Palantir has to grow to become much more than it is today. Most significantly, Palantir’s Foundry, which serves commercial enterprises, has to become a staple in the business world.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Palantir 组合中存在所有不确定性，在我看来，只有一个论点可以证明持有 Palantir 的合理性，那就是增长。为了证明其价格的合理性，Palantir 必须发展壮大，变得比今天多得多。最重要的是，Palantir 为商业企业服务的铸造厂必须成为商界的主要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is trying to do just this, and it is getting started by launching Foundry for Builders, which aims to target smaller companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 正试图做到这一点，它首先推出了 Foundry for Builders，旨在针对较小的公司。</blockquote></p><p>   Under Foundry for Builders, Palantir will sell Foundry to start-ups under a subscription model, first to companies connected to Palantir alumni, before expanding the initiative to other early stage companies.  Source:Yahoo Finance</p><p><blockquote>根据 Foundry for Builders，Palantir 将以订阅模式向初创企业出售 Foundry，首先出售给与 Palantir 校友有联系的公司，然后将该计划扩展到其他早期公司。资料来源：雅虎财经</blockquote></p><p> This is where Palantir investors should be looking to determine the future success of the company. If Palantir’s Foundry can prove itself useful to these early-stage companies, perhaps there is a chance that the company can grow into its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这是 Palantir 投资者应该着眼于决定公司未来成功的地方。如果 Palantir 的代工厂能证明自己对这些早期公司有用，那么该公司的估值或许就有机会增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The data analytics business will be one of the fastest-growing industries in the coming years. However, this space is incredibly competitive, and there’s a reasonable chance that successful companies today won’t be the winners of tomorrow. The data segment is comparable to the CRM and ERP business back in the 90s. In the coming years, a great majority of companies will be leveraging the power of data. But will they be using Palantir? The answer lies in which of these companies has the best “system” behind them. Palantir has shown a lot of promise, but at this price, I believe the uncertainty is too high to hold on to a significant position.</p><p><blockquote>数据分析业务将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。然而，这个领域的竞争非常激烈，今天成功的公司很有可能不会成为明天的赢家。数据领域可与90年代的CRM和ERP业务相媲美。在未来几年，绝大多数公司将利用数据的力量。但是他们会使用Palantir吗？答案在于这些公司中哪家背后的 “系统 ”最好。Palantir 表现出了很大的希望，但在这个价格下，我认为不确定性太高，无法保持重要地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455718-palantir-an-investing-wildcard\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455718-palantir-an-investing-wildcard","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183212407","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir offers a great service, but future profitability and growth remain a mystery.\nFurthermore, an investment in Palantir also means owning a variety of SPACs and even gold bars.\nWith all this uncertainty baked into Palantir's future, I find it hard to value the company and justify owning a significant position.\n\nGOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is perhaps one of the hardest companies to value and believe me I have tried. There are just too many uncertain variables when it comes to this company. What does Palantir even do? How profitable can it be? How much dilution can we expect? And what new and “unexpected” investments will the company make going forward?\nAll of these things make for a very uncertain investment, which, in many ways, isn't justified at today’s price. At the very least, investors should apply an uncertainty discount to Palantir, since their business remains a mystery. Also, there are significant risks beyond dilution that could severely damage the company’s reputation.\nUltimately, I believe that while there are many compelling bearish points, a bull thesis can be built around the future growth of Foundry.\nWhat does Palantir do?\nI won’t spend too much time discussing something which I’ve already talked about extensively in this article. The key point I made there is that Palantir relies on having an experienced team of salesmen that can act as consultants to the businesses/institutions that use Gotham/Foundry. Far from saying that the software is useless by itself, the point I’m making is that it is so specialized that it has to be used by experts. It requires deep collaboration between experts from the company using the software and experts from Palantir.\nThe question then is just how much does Palantir rely on its employees and how much of the work is being done by its AI/software? In other words, what is the value split? And from a competitive standpoint, how easy would it be for former Palantir employees to create their own AI and compete with Palantir?\nTo properly answer this question, requires a very in-depth understanding of the technology behind Gotham/Foundry and also the specific business practices of the company. Most investors and I include myself here, can only make an educated guess, but ultimately this could go either way.\nFrom a bullish perspective, one could say that Palantir’s AI is actually learning all the time, and perhaps this makes it much harder to replace than a more traditional SaaS. On the other hand, another favourable point would be to say that, in the future, as data analytics becomes much more prevalent, companies will have more experienced employees who can therefore take some of the “burden” away from Palantir. Of course, there is a thin line between this and Palantir becoming completely replaceable.\nThe more bearish perspective would be to argue that Palantir’s software is easily replaceable and not that cutting edge, and that the reliance on highly paid and specialized engineers will render the company unprofitable for years, which brings me to my next point.\nAn uncertain future\nThe problem with Palantir is that it is near impossible to achieve a valuation based on cash flow, or even valuation multiples. Palantir’s business is unique and it remains a mystery what kind of profit margins the company will be able to achieve moving forward.\nIn the past, I have tried to value Palantir in such a way, by forecasting its profitability to approximate that of its peers in the coming decade. However, this yielded a target price of around $16/share, once dilution was taken into account.\nThe only way one could justify an investment in Palantir would be if share dilution is drastically reduced and the company continues to grow at a rate that justifies much higher valuation multiples than the industry.In this article,I calculated what this could look like, reaching a price target of around $116 by 2030, but this uses a P/E ratio of 66, which is double the industry average.\nThe point I am trying to make is that very different price targets can be obtained under reasonable assumptions. It just really depends on your interpretation of the business and its prospects.\nAnother issue with Palantir is the fact that it is so susceptible to news and marketing. Palantir works with sensitive data, and any hint at the fact that this data might not be safe, as the recent FBI glitch, might spook prospective clients and investors.\nUltimately, as many bulls argue, Palantir’s true addressable market can’t even be quantified yet. So how exactly can we quantify ROI?\nA “diversified” Balance Sheet\nTo make matters even more complex, Palantir has been making a series of investments that don’t seem to necessarily be based on logic. Last month it was revealed that Palantir invested around $50 million in gold bars. Why exactly? A proper explanation hasn’t been offered. Of course, this investment represents a little over 2% of Palantir’s available cash, but it still makes a clear statement: Palantir is not afraid to do unexpected things.\nMost notably though, Palantir has invested in numerous SPACS in the last year, which again just adds to the uncertainty of investing in Palantir. Some of these investments include Sarcos Robotics, Roivant Sciences and Celularity. Of course, there is a common theme underpinning these investments. All the above-mentioned companies use or have committed to using Palantir’s software in the future. More recently, Palantir has partnered with BlackSky, a geospatial intelligence company following a successful partnership with this company.\nThe question is, are these good investments that the company is making from a position of privilege since it knows these companies well? Or is Palantir simply investing to guarantee future demand? Whichever it is, one thing is clear, the fact that Palantir is so happy to spend the money it has raised at the expense of shareholders might concern some.\nPalantir’s road to success\nWith all of the uncertainty baked into the Palantir mix, there is only, in my opinion, one argument that can justify a position in Palantir, and that is growth. To justify its price, Palantir has to grow to become much more than it is today. Most significantly, Palantir’s Foundry, which serves commercial enterprises, has to become a staple in the business world.\nPalantir is trying to do just this, and it is getting started by launching Foundry for Builders, which aims to target smaller companies.\n\n Under Foundry for Builders, Palantir will sell Foundry to start-ups under a subscription model, first to companies connected to Palantir alumni, before expanding the initiative to other early stage companies.\n\nSource:Yahoo Finance\nThis is where Palantir investors should be looking to determine the future success of the company. If Palantir’s Foundry can prove itself useful to these early-stage companies, perhaps there is a chance that the company can grow into its valuation.\nTakeaway\nThe data analytics business will be one of the fastest-growing industries in the coming years. However, this space is incredibly competitive, and there’s a reasonable chance that successful companies today won’t be the winners of tomorrow. The data segment is comparable to the CRM and ERP business back in the 90s. In the coming years, a great majority of companies will be leveraging the power of data. But will they be using Palantir? The answer lies in which of these companies has the best “system” behind them. Palantir has shown a lot of promise, but at this price, I believe the uncertainty is too high to hold on to a significant position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883964290,"gmtCreate":1631197062310,"gmtModify":1632884007450,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Debt ceiling increase on the way~","listText":"Debt ceiling increase on the way~","text":"Debt ceiling increase on the way~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883964290","repostId":"1114255023","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813523970,"gmtCreate":1630216957890,"gmtModify":1704957166439,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"KIV","listText":"KIV","text":"KIV","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813523970","repostId":"1129129956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129129956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630201285,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129129956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-29 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129129956","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.Real estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologieshas been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company  merger. In a race to disrupt residential ","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying 业务是一场扩大规模的竞赛，而 Opendoor 正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有 SPAC 都持看跌态度，这使得 Opendoor 成为一笔最终可能带来巨大回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>Opendoor技术</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行力一直处于高水平。在扰乱全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor 的长期潜力可以为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上涨空间，但市场尚未欣赏 Opendoor 的成就；该股较高点下跌了 50% 以上。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor 可能是一个有吸引力的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1. Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房过程很慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这会产生大量的来回文书工作，并将流程平均拖延超过30天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字成交流程。然后该公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理和与传统成交相关的一些费用，如代理佣金。然后，Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并对交易收取高达5%的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到 Opendoor 凭借其 iBuying 概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供 iBuying 服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司正在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多的房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易的增加，其定价算法也会得到改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的可供出售的住房库存。该公司目前约有 3,300 套房屋待售，比 Zillow 多 53%，是 Offerpad 的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2.收入增长提前</h3>当公司通过PacMerger上市时，他们会公开展示自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即 2020 年 9 月，Opendoor 发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近发布的 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人 Eric Wu 在财报看涨期权上表示：“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过 2023 年的目标，比计划提前整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果 Opendoor 以目前的业务水平运营 12 个月，它将超过 2023 年预计的 98 亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果 Opendoor 已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到 2023 年它将处于什么位置？当然，房地产市场的下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱该公司的增长速度，但 Opendoor 正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC不受市场青睐……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注 Opendoor 通过 SPAC 合并加入公开市场的事实。对于以前的 SPAC 来说，经营业绩或收益几乎无关紧要；几个月来，股市一直在抛售几乎所有基于特殊目的收购公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“坏苹果”公司被发现存在欺诈行为感到害怕，而其他公司则严重错过了他们在上市前做出的预测。这些例子让相关人员感到焦虑，投资者对 SPAC 整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像 Opendoor 这样的公司继续夸大预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们接受 Eric Wu 对收入的评论，并假设 Opendoor 在 2022 年的销售额为 100 亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor 在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持当前的速度），那么该股目前的交易价格与销售额（P/S）比率仅为 1.0。这是一个便宜货的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手 Zillow Group 的市盈率超过 3，反映了 Opendoor 作为前 SPAC 的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，这是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-29 09:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying 业务是一场扩大规模的竞赛，而 Opendoor 正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有 SPAC 都持看跌态度，这使得 Opendoor 成为一笔最终可能带来巨大回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>Opendoor技术</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行力一直处于高水平。在扰乱全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor 的长期潜力可以为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上涨空间，但市场尚未欣赏 Opendoor 的成就；该股较高点下跌了 50% 以上。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor 可能是一个有吸引力的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1. Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房过程很慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这会产生大量的来回文书工作，并将流程平均拖延超过30天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字成交流程。然后该公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理和与传统成交相关的一些费用，如代理佣金。然后，Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并对交易收取高达5%的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到 Opendoor 凭借其 iBuying 概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供 iBuying 服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司正在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多的房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易的增加，其定价算法也会得到改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的可供出售的住房库存。该公司目前约有 3,300 套房屋待售，比 Zillow 多 53%，是 Offerpad 的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2.收入增长提前</h3>当公司通过PacMerger上市时，他们会公开展示自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即 2020 年 9 月，Opendoor 发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近发布的 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人 Eric Wu 在财报看涨期权上表示：“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过 2023 年的目标，比计划提前整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果 Opendoor 以目前的业务水平运营 12 个月，它将超过 2023 年预计的 98 亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果 Opendoor 已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到 2023 年它将处于什么位置？当然，房地产市场的下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱该公司的增长速度，但 Opendoor 正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC不受市场青睐……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注 Opendoor 通过 SPAC 合并加入公开市场的事实。对于以前的 SPAC 来说，经营业绩或收益几乎无关紧要；几个月来，股市一直在抛售几乎所有基于特殊目的收购公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“坏苹果”公司被发现存在欺诈行为感到害怕，而其他公司则严重错过了他们在上市前做出的预测。这些例子让相关人员感到焦虑，投资者对 SPAC 整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像 Opendoor 这样的公司继续夸大预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们接受 Eric Wu 对收入的评论，并假设 Opendoor 在 2022 年的销售额为 100 亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor 在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持当前的速度），那么该股目前的交易价格与销售额（P/S）比率仅为 1.0。这是一个便宜货的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手 Zillow Group 的市盈率超过 3，反映了 Opendoor 作为前 SPAC 的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，这是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OPEN":"Opendoor Technologies Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129129956","content_text":"Key Points\n\nThe iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.\nThe company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.\nThe market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.\n\n\nReal estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologies(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.\nDespite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.\n1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle\nThe traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.\nOpendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.\nAfter seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including Zillow Group and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.\nAccording to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.\n2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule\nWhen companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.\nFast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"\nIn other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.\n3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?\nInvestors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.\nInvestors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.\nBut if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.\nCompetitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.\nHere's the bottom line\nReal estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"Amazon\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is poised to be a big player in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OPEN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832832767,"gmtCreate":1629604791959,"gmtModify":1633683799126,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good to long US semicon as trade war will continue to insulate it from Chinese competitive pressures.&nbsp;","listText":"Good to long US semicon as trade war will continue to insulate it from Chinese competitive pressures.&nbsp;","text":"Good to long US semicon as trade war will continue to insulate it from Chinese competitive pressures.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832832767","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","ASML":"阿斯麦","ON":"安森美半导体","QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CDNS":"铿腾电子","SSNLF":"三星电子","SNPS":"新思科技","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832836103,"gmtCreate":1629604583702,"gmtModify":1631883827610,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.&nbsp;","listText":"This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.&nbsp;","text":"This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832836103","repostId":"1158638011","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158638011","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629602404,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158638011?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158638011","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nL","content":"<p>  <b>Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.</b>  Last week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.</p><p><blockquote><b>消费者情绪是一个反向指标，因此他们目前的悲观情绪对股市有利。</b>上周密歇根大学消费者信心指数的意外暴跌实际上对美股投资者来说是个好消息。这是因为美国消费者是股市的逆向指标。过去四十年来，消费者信心大幅下降后，股市回报率往往高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> This should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让华尔街多头松一口气，因为他们一直在担心密歇根大学指数的最新数据。该指数从7月份的81.2点跌至上周的70.2点。这是自 2011 年 12 月以来的最低值，甚至低于 COVID-19 大流行最黑暗的最初几周的最低读数。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.</p><p><blockquote>要了解这一最新数据有多出乎意料，请考虑一下 MarketWatch 提前调查的经济学家平均预测该指数将达到 81.3，比 7 月份的数字略有上升。</blockquote></p><p> To analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析像最近一次这样大幅度下跌的意义，我计算了自 1978 年以来密歇根大学指数的月度变化与标普500 sSPX 指数在通货膨胀和股息调整后的后续表现之间的相关性。我发现，每当这个情绪指数下降至少10个百分点时，随后三个月的标普500平均上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>这是三个月平均涨幅 1.7% 的两倍，而在此之前的几个月里，消费者信心指数至少上升了 10 个百分点。此外，如下图所示，六个月内的这种对比甚至更大：7.5% 对 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db16295aee3c6f4bbf094317ade3d200\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">To be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，自 1978 年以来，消费者信心指数还没有多少个月出现过如此大的涨幅。情绪指数的月度变化与美国股市随后的表现之间的反比关系在统计上只有边缘意义。因此，你不应该利用情绪指数大幅下跌的机会将谨慎抛诸脑后。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果你愿意相信这种历史关系在统计学上无关紧要，你仍然不能断定最近的下降是一个不好的迹象。相反，你不得不得出结论：密歇根大学指数并不能告诉你未来几个月股市的前景。</blockquote></p><p> So there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.</p><p><blockquote>所以你有了它。要么最近的下跌毫无意义，要么就是看涨。如果你想相信最近的下跌是个坏消息，你必须把你的论点建立在1978年以来美国股市历史以外的东西上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmerican consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.</b>  Last week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.</p><p><blockquote><b>消费者情绪是一个反向指标，因此他们目前的悲观情绪对股市有利。</b>上周密歇根大学消费者信心指数的意外暴跌实际上对美股投资者来说是个好消息。这是因为美国消费者是股市的逆向指标。过去四十年来，消费者信心大幅下降后，股市回报率往往高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> This should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让华尔街多头松一口气，因为他们一直在担心密歇根大学指数的最新数据。该指数从7月份的81.2点跌至上周的70.2点。这是自 2011 年 12 月以来的最低值，甚至低于 COVID-19 大流行最黑暗的最初几周的最低读数。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.</p><p><blockquote>要了解这一最新数据有多出乎意料，请考虑一下 MarketWatch 提前调查的经济学家平均预测该指数将达到 81.3，比 7 月份的数字略有上升。</blockquote></p><p> To analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析像最近一次这样大幅度下跌的意义，我计算了自 1978 年以来密歇根大学指数的月度变化与标普500 sSPX 指数在通货膨胀和股息调整后的后续表现之间的相关性。我发现，每当这个情绪指数下降至少10个百分点时，随后三个月的标普500平均上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>这是三个月平均涨幅 1.7% 的两倍，而在此之前的几个月里，消费者信心指数至少上升了 10 个百分点。此外，如下图所示，六个月内的这种对比甚至更大：7.5% 对 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db16295aee3c6f4bbf094317ade3d200\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">To be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，自 1978 年以来，消费者信心指数还没有多少个月出现过如此大的涨幅。情绪指数的月度变化与美国股市随后的表现之间的反比关系在统计上只有边缘意义。因此，你不应该利用情绪指数大幅下跌的机会将谨慎抛诸脑后。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果你愿意相信这种历史关系在统计学上无关紧要，你仍然不能断定最近的下降是一个不好的迹象。相反，你不得不得出结论：密歇根大学指数并不能告诉你未来几个月股市的前景。</blockquote></p><p> So there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.</p><p><blockquote>所以你有了它。要么最近的下跌毫无意义，要么就是看涨。如果你想相信最近的下跌是个坏消息，你必须把你的论点建立在1978年以来美国股市历史以外的东西上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158638011","content_text":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nLast week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.\nThis should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nTo appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.\nTo analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.\nThat’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.\nTo be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.\nNevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.\nSo there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832931372,"gmtCreate":1629556032396,"gmtModify":1633684059966,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like for like!&nbsp;","listText":"Like for like!&nbsp;","text":"Like for like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832931372","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896603673,"gmtCreate":1628573553492,"gmtModify":1633746031106,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Battery stocks are long ftw!&nbsp;","listText":"Battery stocks are long ftw!&nbsp;","text":"Battery stocks are long ftw!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896603673","repostId":"1156817183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156817183","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628563920,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156817183?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 10:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Ballard Power, Plug Power, Bloom Energy, and Especially FuelCell Energy Stocks Popped Today<blockquote>为什么巴拉德电力、普拉格能源、布鲁姆能源，尤其是燃料电池能源股票今天大幅上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156817183","media":"The motley fool","summary":"What happened\nLast week was an important week for thehydrogen fuel cellindustry, withBallard Power S","content":"<p> What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Last week was an important week for thehydrogen fuel cellindustry, with<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLDP\">Ballard Power</a> Systems</b>(NASDAQ:BLDP),<b>Bloom Energy</b>(NYSE:BE), and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">Plug Power</a></b>(NASDAQ:PLUG)reporting earnings.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">FuelCell</a> Energy</b>(NASDAQ:FCEL)was the odd man out. It reports earnings only next month -- but even FuelCell Energy had some news to report today.</p><p><blockquote>上周对于氢燃料电池行业来说是重要的一周，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLDP\">巴拉德动力</a>系统</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BLDP）<b>布鲁姆能源</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BE），以及<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：PLUG）报告收益。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">燃料电池</a>能源</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：FCEL）是一个奇怪的人。它要到下个月才会公布收益，但即使是 FuelCell Energy 今天也有一些消息要报道。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, investors rendered their verdict on the week, and it was generally positive, with every fuel cell stock but Plug closing the day higher -- and today looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>周五，投资者对本周做出了判断，总体上是积极的，除 Plug 外的所有燃料电池股票当天收盘均走高，今天看起来甚至更好。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how the fuel cell stocks are faring as of 11:35 a.m. EDT Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至美国东部时间周一上午 11:35 燃料电池股的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ballard <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PW\">Power</a> is up 4.9%.</li>  <li>Bloom Energy is up 5.5%.</li>  <li>Plug Power is up a remarkable 8.5%.</li>  <li>FuelCell Energy is doing best of all, up 11%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>巴拉德<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PW\">力量</a>上涨4.9%。</li><li>布鲁姆能源公司上涨 5.5%。</li><li>普拉格能源上涨了 8.5%。</li><li>燃料电池能源表现最好，上涨了 11%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> After gaining only 2.2% Friday, FuelCell is rocketing this morning on news that it has secured $15 million in financing from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">East West</a> Bank to fund its production of a 7.4 megawatt fuel cell project for the U.S. Navy Submarine Base in Groton, Connecticut. It believes it can secure debt financing to complete the project later this year. Commercial operation of the project could begin as early as next month, and FuelCell calls this a \"milestone\" project for the company -- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that will secure a 20-year-long revenue stream as FuelCell provides electricity from the project to the Naval base.</p><p><blockquote>在周五仅上涨 2.2% 后，FuelCell 今天早上因有消息称已获得 1500 万美元融资而飙升<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">东西</a>银行将为康涅狄格州格罗顿的美国海军潜艇基地生产 7.4 兆瓦燃料电池项目提供资金。它相信可以获得债务融资，以在今年晚些时候完成该项目。该项目最早可能于下个月开始商业运营，FuelCell 评级将其视为该公司的“里程碑”项目——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这将确保长达 20 年的收入来源，因为 FuelCell 将从该项目向海军基地提供电力。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> Now let's quickly review the news for the other three fuel cell firms -- the ones that reported earnings last week, and see why<i>they</i>are performing so well, as well.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们快速回顾一下其他三家燃料电池公司（上周公布收益的公司）的新闻，看看为什么<i>他们</i>表现也很好。</blockquote></p><p> According to published analyst estimates collated byTheFly.com, all three fuel cell firms (aside from FuelCell) missed earnings last week, with Bloom reporting a $0.23 per share loss on Wednesday, followed by Plug losing $0.18 per share on Thursday, and finally Ballard losing $0.07 per share on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据 TheFly.com 整理的已公布分析师预测，所有三家燃料电池公司（FuelCell 除外）上周均未能实现盈利，其中 Bloom 周三报告每股亏损 0.23 美元，随后 Plug 周四每股亏损 0.18 美元，最后 Ballard 周五每股亏损 0.07 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn't sound so great, but on the bright side, Ballard and Plug, at least, reported better-than-expected revenue for their respective fiscal second quarters. And Bloom gave new guidance for the balance of fiscal 2021 which -- taken at the midpoint -- sees revenue coming in at about $975 million, or slightly ahead of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>这听起来不太好，但从好的一面来看，巴拉德和普拉格至少公布了各自第二财季的收入好于预期。布鲁姆对 2021 财年的余额给出了新的指导，从中点来看，预计收入约为 9.75 亿美元，略高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> It's this revenue growth investors seem to be focusing on today, on the assumption that at some point in the future, this revenue will turn into profits. Based on last week's abysmal profit performance, however, and based on the industry's history -- specifically, the fact that according toS&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, out of these four companies, only Ballard has ever earned a single full-year profit in the past 20 years -- I'm not sure I share investors' optimism aboutthese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>投资者今天似乎关注的是这种收入增长，假设在未来的某个时候，这种收入将转化为利润。然而，根据上周糟糕的利润表现，以及该行业的历史——特别是，根据 toS&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 的数据，在这四家公司中，只有 Ballard 在过去 20 年中获得过一次全年利润——我不确定我是否认同投资者对这些股票的乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Ballard Power, Plug Power, Bloom Energy, and Especially FuelCell Energy Stocks Popped Today<blockquote>为什么巴拉德电力、普拉格能源、布鲁姆能源，尤其是燃料电池能源股票今天大幅上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Ballard Power, Plug Power, Bloom Energy, and Especially FuelCell Energy Stocks Popped Today<blockquote>为什么巴拉德电力、普拉格能源、布鲁姆能源，尤其是燃料电池能源股票今天大幅上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 10:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Last week was an important week for thehydrogen fuel cellindustry, with<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLDP\">Ballard Power</a> Systems</b>(NASDAQ:BLDP),<b>Bloom Energy</b>(NYSE:BE), and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">Plug Power</a></b>(NASDAQ:PLUG)reporting earnings.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">FuelCell</a> Energy</b>(NASDAQ:FCEL)was the odd man out. It reports earnings only next month -- but even FuelCell Energy had some news to report today.</p><p><blockquote>上周对于氢燃料电池行业来说是重要的一周，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLDP\">巴拉德动力</a>系统</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BLDP）<b>布鲁姆能源</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BE），以及<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：PLUG）报告收益。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">燃料电池</a>能源</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：FCEL）是一个奇怪的人。它要到下个月才会公布收益，但即使是 FuelCell Energy 今天也有一些消息要报道。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, investors rendered their verdict on the week, and it was generally positive, with every fuel cell stock but Plug closing the day higher -- and today looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>周五，投资者对本周做出了判断，总体上是积极的，除 Plug 外的所有燃料电池股票当天收盘均走高，今天看起来甚至更好。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how the fuel cell stocks are faring as of 11:35 a.m. EDT Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至美国东部时间周一上午 11:35 燃料电池股的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ballard <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PW\">Power</a> is up 4.9%.</li>  <li>Bloom Energy is up 5.5%.</li>  <li>Plug Power is up a remarkable 8.5%.</li>  <li>FuelCell Energy is doing best of all, up 11%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>巴拉德<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PW\">力量</a>上涨4.9%。</li><li>布鲁姆能源公司上涨 5.5%。</li><li>普拉格能源上涨了 8.5%。</li><li>燃料电池能源表现最好，上涨了 11%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> After gaining only 2.2% Friday, FuelCell is rocketing this morning on news that it has secured $15 million in financing from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">East West</a> Bank to fund its production of a 7.4 megawatt fuel cell project for the U.S. Navy Submarine Base in Groton, Connecticut. It believes it can secure debt financing to complete the project later this year. Commercial operation of the project could begin as early as next month, and FuelCell calls this a \"milestone\" project for the company -- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that will secure a 20-year-long revenue stream as FuelCell provides electricity from the project to the Naval base.</p><p><blockquote>在周五仅上涨 2.2% 后，FuelCell 今天早上因有消息称已获得 1500 万美元融资而飙升<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">东西</a>银行将为康涅狄格州格罗顿的美国海军潜艇基地生产 7.4 兆瓦燃料电池项目提供资金。它相信可以获得债务融资，以在今年晚些时候完成该项目。该项目最早可能于下个月开始商业运营，FuelCell 评级将其视为该公司的“里程碑”项目——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这将确保长达 20 年的收入来源，因为 FuelCell 将从该项目向海军基地提供电力。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> Now let's quickly review the news for the other three fuel cell firms -- the ones that reported earnings last week, and see why<i>they</i>are performing so well, as well.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们快速回顾一下其他三家燃料电池公司（上周公布收益的公司）的新闻，看看为什么<i>他们</i>表现也很好。</blockquote></p><p> According to published analyst estimates collated byTheFly.com, all three fuel cell firms (aside from FuelCell) missed earnings last week, with Bloom reporting a $0.23 per share loss on Wednesday, followed by Plug losing $0.18 per share on Thursday, and finally Ballard losing $0.07 per share on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据 TheFly.com 整理的已公布分析师预测，所有三家燃料电池公司（FuelCell 除外）上周均未能实现盈利，其中 Bloom 周三报告每股亏损 0.23 美元，随后 Plug 周四每股亏损 0.18 美元，最后 Ballard 周五每股亏损 0.07 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn't sound so great, but on the bright side, Ballard and Plug, at least, reported better-than-expected revenue for their respective fiscal second quarters. And Bloom gave new guidance for the balance of fiscal 2021 which -- taken at the midpoint -- sees revenue coming in at about $975 million, or slightly ahead of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>这听起来不太好，但从好的一面来看，巴拉德和普拉格至少公布了各自第二财季的收入好于预期。布鲁姆对 2021 财年的余额给出了新的指导，从中点来看，预计收入约为 9.75 亿美元，略高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> It's this revenue growth investors seem to be focusing on today, on the assumption that at some point in the future, this revenue will turn into profits. Based on last week's abysmal profit performance, however, and based on the industry's history -- specifically, the fact that according toS&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, out of these four companies, only Ballard has ever earned a single full-year profit in the past 20 years -- I'm not sure I share investors' optimism aboutthese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>投资者今天似乎关注的是这种收入增长，假设在未来的某个时候，这种收入将转化为利润。然而，根据上周糟糕的利润表现，以及该行业的历史——特别是，根据 toS&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 的数据，在这四家公司中，只有 Ballard 在过去 20 年中获得过一次全年利润——我不确定我是否认同投资者对这些股票的乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/09/why-ballard-plug-bloom-fuelcell-stocks-popped/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BLDP":"巴拉德动力系统","PLUG":"普拉格能源","FCEL":"燃料电池能源"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/09/why-ballard-plug-bloom-fuelcell-stocks-popped/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156817183","content_text":"What happened\nLast week was an important week for thehydrogen fuel cellindustry, withBallard Power Systems(NASDAQ:BLDP),Bloom Energy(NYSE:BE), andPlug Power(NASDAQ:PLUG)reporting earnings.FuelCell Energy(NASDAQ:FCEL)was the odd man out. It reports earnings only next month -- but even FuelCell Energy had some news to report today.\nOn Friday, investors rendered their verdict on the week, and it was generally positive, with every fuel cell stock but Plug closing the day higher -- and today looks even better.\nHere's how the fuel cell stocks are faring as of 11:35 a.m. EDT Monday.\n\nBallard Power is up 4.9%.\nBloom Energy is up 5.5%.\nPlug Power is up a remarkable 8.5%.\nFuelCell Energy is doing best of all, up 11%.\n\nSo what\nAfter gaining only 2.2% Friday, FuelCell is rocketing this morning on news that it has secured $15 million in financing from East West Bank to fund its production of a 7.4 megawatt fuel cell project for the U.S. Navy Submarine Base in Groton, Connecticut. It believes it can secure debt financing to complete the project later this year. Commercial operation of the project could begin as early as next month, and FuelCell calls this a \"milestone\" project for the company -- one that will secure a 20-year-long revenue stream as FuelCell provides electricity from the project to the Naval base.\nNow what\nNow let's quickly review the news for the other three fuel cell firms -- the ones that reported earnings last week, and see whytheyare performing so well, as well.\nAccording to published analyst estimates collated byTheFly.com, all three fuel cell firms (aside from FuelCell) missed earnings last week, with Bloom reporting a $0.23 per share loss on Wednesday, followed by Plug losing $0.18 per share on Thursday, and finally Ballard losing $0.07 per share on Friday.\nThat doesn't sound so great, but on the bright side, Ballard and Plug, at least, reported better-than-expected revenue for their respective fiscal second quarters. And Bloom gave new guidance for the balance of fiscal 2021 which -- taken at the midpoint -- sees revenue coming in at about $975 million, or slightly ahead of expectations.\nIt's this revenue growth investors seem to be focusing on today, on the assumption that at some point in the future, this revenue will turn into profits. Based on last week's abysmal profit performance, however, and based on the industry's history -- specifically, the fact that according toS&P Global Market Intelligence, out of these four companies, only Ballard has ever earned a single full-year profit in the past 20 years -- I'm not sure I share investors' optimism aboutthese stocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLDP":0.9,"FCEL":0.9,"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":832836103,"gmtCreate":1629604583702,"gmtModify":1631883827610,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.&nbsp;","listText":"This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.&nbsp;","text":"This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832836103","repostId":"1158638011","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158638011","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629602404,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158638011?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158638011","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nL","content":"<p>  <b>Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.</b>  Last week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.</p><p><blockquote><b>消费者情绪是一个反向指标，因此他们目前的悲观情绪对股市有利。</b>上周密歇根大学消费者信心指数的意外暴跌实际上对美股投资者来说是个好消息。这是因为美国消费者是股市的逆向指标。过去四十年来，消费者信心大幅下降后，股市回报率往往高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> This should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让华尔街多头松一口气，因为他们一直在担心密歇根大学指数的最新数据。该指数从7月份的81.2点跌至上周的70.2点。这是自 2011 年 12 月以来的最低值，甚至低于 COVID-19 大流行最黑暗的最初几周的最低读数。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.</p><p><blockquote>要了解这一最新数据有多出乎意料，请考虑一下 MarketWatch 提前调查的经济学家平均预测该指数将达到 81.3，比 7 月份的数字略有上升。</blockquote></p><p> To analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析像最近一次这样大幅度下跌的意义，我计算了自 1978 年以来密歇根大学指数的月度变化与标普500 sSPX 指数在通货膨胀和股息调整后的后续表现之间的相关性。我发现，每当这个情绪指数下降至少10个百分点时，随后三个月的标普500平均上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>这是三个月平均涨幅 1.7% 的两倍，而在此之前的几个月里，消费者信心指数至少上升了 10 个百分点。此外，如下图所示，六个月内的这种对比甚至更大：7.5% 对 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db16295aee3c6f4bbf094317ade3d200\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">To be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，自 1978 年以来，消费者信心指数还没有多少个月出现过如此大的涨幅。情绪指数的月度变化与美国股市随后的表现之间的反比关系在统计上只有边缘意义。因此，你不应该利用情绪指数大幅下跌的机会将谨慎抛诸脑后。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果你愿意相信这种历史关系在统计学上无关紧要，你仍然不能断定最近的下降是一个不好的迹象。相反，你不得不得出结论：密歇根大学指数并不能告诉你未来几个月股市的前景。</blockquote></p><p> So there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.</p><p><blockquote>所以你有了它。要么最近的下跌毫无意义，要么就是看涨。如果你想相信最近的下跌是个坏消息，你必须把你的论点建立在1978年以来美国股市历史以外的东西上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmerican consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.</b>  Last week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.</p><p><blockquote><b>消费者情绪是一个反向指标，因此他们目前的悲观情绪对股市有利。</b>上周密歇根大学消费者信心指数的意外暴跌实际上对美股投资者来说是个好消息。这是因为美国消费者是股市的逆向指标。过去四十年来，消费者信心大幅下降后，股市回报率往往高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> This should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让华尔街多头松一口气，因为他们一直在担心密歇根大学指数的最新数据。该指数从7月份的81.2点跌至上周的70.2点。这是自 2011 年 12 月以来的最低值，甚至低于 COVID-19 大流行最黑暗的最初几周的最低读数。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.</p><p><blockquote>要了解这一最新数据有多出乎意料，请考虑一下 MarketWatch 提前调查的经济学家平均预测该指数将达到 81.3，比 7 月份的数字略有上升。</blockquote></p><p> To analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析像最近一次这样大幅度下跌的意义，我计算了自 1978 年以来密歇根大学指数的月度变化与标普500 sSPX 指数在通货膨胀和股息调整后的后续表现之间的相关性。我发现，每当这个情绪指数下降至少10个百分点时，随后三个月的标普500平均上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>这是三个月平均涨幅 1.7% 的两倍，而在此之前的几个月里，消费者信心指数至少上升了 10 个百分点。此外，如下图所示，六个月内的这种对比甚至更大：7.5% 对 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db16295aee3c6f4bbf094317ade3d200\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">To be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，自 1978 年以来，消费者信心指数还没有多少个月出现过如此大的涨幅。情绪指数的月度变化与美国股市随后的表现之间的反比关系在统计上只有边缘意义。因此，你不应该利用情绪指数大幅下跌的机会将谨慎抛诸脑后。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果你愿意相信这种历史关系在统计学上无关紧要，你仍然不能断定最近的下降是一个不好的迹象。相反，你不得不得出结论：密歇根大学指数并不能告诉你未来几个月股市的前景。</blockquote></p><p> So there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.</p><p><blockquote>所以你有了它。要么最近的下跌毫无意义，要么就是看涨。如果你想相信最近的下跌是个坏消息，你必须把你的论点建立在1978年以来美国股市历史以外的东西上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158638011","content_text":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nLast week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.\nThis should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nTo appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.\nTo analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.\nThat’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.\nTo be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.\nNevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.\nSo there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832832767,"gmtCreate":1629604791959,"gmtModify":1633683799126,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good to long US semicon as trade war will continue to insulate it from Chinese competitive pressures.&nbsp;","listText":"Good to long US semicon as trade war will continue to insulate it from Chinese competitive pressures.&nbsp;","text":"Good to long US semicon as trade war will continue to insulate it from Chinese competitive pressures.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832832767","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","ASML":"阿斯麦","ON":"安森美半导体","QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CDNS":"铿腾电子","SSNLF":"三星电子","SNPS":"新思科技","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":609399469,"gmtCreate":1638236602813,"gmtModify":1638237464796,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not sure if you've all taken the mRNA boosters but damn, you really do get knocked out 😅 looks like it's 2x jabs annually, for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;","listText":"Not sure if you've all taken the mRNA boosters but damn, you really do get knocked out 😅 looks like it's 2x jabs annually, for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;","text":"Not sure if you've all taken the mRNA boosters but damn, you really do get knocked out 😅 looks like it's 2x jabs annually, for the foreseeable future.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609399469","repostId":"1199171840","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199171840","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638236363,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199171840?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna Surges After Saying Omicron Vaccine Ready Early 2022<blockquote>Moderna 表示奥密克戎疫苗将于 2022 年初准备就绪，股价飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199171840","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vac","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vaccine to fight the omicron strain of the coronavirus could be ready by early 2022 if required. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——Moderna Inc. 表示，如果需要的话，对抗奥密克戎冠状病毒株的新疫苗可以在 2022 年初准备就绪，该公司公布了一年来最好的两天涨势。这……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Surges After Saying Omicron Vaccine Ready Early 2022<blockquote>Moderna 表示奥密克戎疫苗将于 2022 年初准备就绪，股价飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Surges After Saying Omicron Vaccine Ready Early 2022<blockquote>Moderna 表示奥密克戎疫苗将于 2022 年初准备就绪，股价飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vaccine to fight the omicron strain of the coronavirus could be ready by early 2022 if required. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——Moderna Inc. 表示，如果需要的话，对抗奥密克戎冠状病毒株的新疫苗可以在 2022 年初准备就绪，该公司公布了一年来最好的两天涨势。这……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-surges-saying-omicron-vaccine-120220663.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199171840","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc. posted its best two-day rally in a year after the company said a new vaccine to fight the omicron strain of the coronavirus could be ready by early 2022 if required.\nThe stock jumped 12% to the highest level since Sept. 30 after surging 21% during Friday’s global risk-asset selloff, to reclaim its place as top performer on the S&P 500 year-to-date. The company mobilized hundreds of workers on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday in order to start work on omicron, Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton said over the weekend.\nModerna’s mRNA technology is ideally suited to adapting vaccines to new variants, according to Piper Sandler analyst Edward A. Tenthoff, who has an overweight rating on the stock.\n“Moderna is in a better position to develop novel Covid-19 vaccines, and now has capacity to manufacture several hundred million vaccine doses every month,” Tenthoff wrote in a note to clients. “SARS-CoV-2 is not going away and will provide years of future revenues.”\nJefferies analyst Michael Yee also struck an optimistic tone for Moderna investors, saying the latest spread should encourage people to get boosted sooner rather than later, while the biotech focuses on a new version for 2022. Moderna “can advance new candidates to clinical trials within 60-90 days,” he said.\nBioNTech SE closed 4.2% higher in U.S. trading after saying it is working to adapt its Covid-19 vaccine to address the omicron variant and expects to have a new version ready within 100 days if necessary. The biotech and its Covid vaccine partner Pfizer Inc. put plans into place months ago. Pfizer shares closed 3% lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000603","authorId":"9000000000000603","name":"ElsieDewey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5db46fc82ad451b6aa0d938d2221d70","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000603","authorIdStr":"9000000000000603"},"content":"I hope the virus will be eliminated as soon as possible. Twice a year is terrible.","text":"I hope the virus will be eliminated as soon as possible. Twice a year is terrible.","html":"I hope the virus will be eliminated as soon as possible. Twice a year is terrible."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820986785,"gmtCreate":1633341344178,"gmtModify":1633341344306,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Stockholm...? Why not London?&nbsp;","listText":"Stockholm...? Why not London?&nbsp;","text":"Stockholm...? Why not London?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820986785","repostId":"1183951893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183951893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633338624,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183951893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 17:10","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Volvo Cars Is Completing Plans for IPO in Stockholm<blockquote>沃尔沃汽车正在完成在斯德哥尔摩的IPO计划</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183951893","media":"WSJ","summary":"Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing","content":"<p>Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing plans for an initial public offering and is set to announce details of the listing as early as Monday, in a deal that could value the car maker at as much as $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国浙江吉利控股集团有限公司旗下的瑞典汽车制造商沃尔沃汽车正在完成首次公开募股计划，最早将于周一公布上市细节，据知情人士透露，这笔交易可能对这家汽车制造商的估值高达250亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> A listing, if it goes ahead, would represent one of the car industry’s most dramatic turnarounds.Ford MotorCo., weakened by the global financial crisis, sold the Swedish company to Geelyfor $1.8 billion in 2010.</p><p><blockquote>如果上市成行，将代表汽车行业最戏剧性的转变之一。受全球金融危机影响，福特汽车公司于 2010 年以 18 亿美元的价格将这家瑞典公司出售给了吉利。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has long capitalized on a brand recognized for safety, but at the time of its sale, its product lineup had failed to excite car buyers. Geely bankrolled Volvo’s recovery over the next decade, opening China as a market for the brand and providing financing to help the company revamp its model offerings.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃长期以来一直利用一个以安全著称的品牌，但在出售时，其产品阵容未能激发购车者的兴趣。吉利在接下来的十年里为沃尔沃的复苏提供了资金，将中国作为沃尔沃品牌的市场开放市场，并提供融资帮助沃尔沃改进其车型产品。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Volvo is profitable, with a road map for electric-model rollouts that is ahead of some competitors. Its brand is back in fashion in the U.S. and elsewhere. It now competes with German premium brands, including BMW makerBayerische Motoren WerkeAG,VolkswagenAG’sAudi brand andDaimlerAG’sMercedes-Benz.</p><p><blockquote>如今，沃尔沃已实现盈利，其电动车型推出路线图领先于一些竞争对手。它的品牌在美国和其他地方重新流行起来。它现在与德国高端品牌竞争，包括宝马制造商巴伐利亚汽车公司、大众汽车公司的沙特品牌和戴姆勒公司的梅赛德斯-奔驰。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of this year, Volvo reported a 41% increase in sales over the same period last year, to 380,757 vehicles. The company’s sales in the U.S. rose 47% to 63,754 vehicles. Europe remains Volvo’s biggest market.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，沃尔沃的销量比去年同期增长了41%，达到380,757辆。该公司在美国的销量增长了 47%，达到 63,754 辆。欧洲仍然是沃尔沃最大的市场。</blockquote></p><p> At a valuation of $25 billion, Volvo would be bigger than European car maker&nbsp;Renault&nbsp;SA,which has a market value of a little more than $10 billion. That is despite Volvo selling a fraction of the cars Renault sells each year. Volvo’s size, though, would pale against the world’s biggest car makers, including&nbsp;General MotorsCo.and Volkswagen, underscoring the competitive challenge the Swedish company faces. Its value would also sharply trail the $767.5 billion market capitalization of electric-vehicle leaderTeslaInc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃的估值为 250 亿美元，将超过市值略高于 100 亿美元的欧洲汽车制造商雷诺公司。尽管沃尔沃每年的销量只是雷诺每年销量的一小部分。不过，沃尔沃的规模与通用汽车公司和大众汽车等全球最大的汽车制造商相比相形见绌，这凸显了这家瑞典公司面临的竞争挑战。其价值也将大幅落后于电动汽车领导者特斯拉公司 7,675 亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a listing would provide investors another competitor to bet on in an auto-industry race to roll out electric vehicles. Volvo was the first conventional auto maker to begin phasing out internal-combustion engines, ending its production of cars only powered by fossil fuels in 2019. Since then, every new Volvo is either a fully electric or hybrid model.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上市仍将为投资者在汽车行业推出电动汽车的竞赛中提供另一个可以押注的竞争对手。沃尔沃是第一家开始逐步淘汰内燃机的传统汽车制造商，并于 2019 年停止生产仅使用化石燃料的汽车。从那时起，每辆新沃尔沃都是全电动或混合动力车型。</blockquote></p><p> Most big auto makers have since said that they also will be phasing out conventional engines in new vehicles, by around 2035.</p><p><blockquote>此后，大多数大型汽车制造商都表示，到 2035 年左右，他们还将逐步淘汰新车中的传统发动机。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has floated the idea of a possible listing as far back as 2018, and in May said it&nbsp;was considering an IPO&nbsp;on the Stockholm stock exchange. Such a listing could provide the company a broader shareholder base and greater independence from its Chinese investors. In September, Reuters reported that Volvo was in talks to list its shares in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃早在 2018 年就提出了可能上市的想法，并于 5 月份表示正在考虑在斯德哥尔摩证券交易所 IPO。这样的上市可以为该公司提供更广泛的股东基础，并使其独立于中国投资者。9 月，路透社报道称，沃尔沃正在就未来几周内上市进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how big a stake Geely plans to sell, but it has previously indicated it would likely remain a major shareholder after any offering. A decision on the details of the listing and its public disclosure could be delayed, but people familiar with the plans said a final call was imminent.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚吉利计划出售多大的股份，但吉利此前曾表示，在发行后，吉利可能仍将是主要股东。关于上市细节及其公开披露的决定可能会推迟，但知情人士表示，最终看涨期权即将举行。</blockquote></p><p> An offering would come amid a frenzy of investor interest in electric vehicles and after an EV-focused Volvo affiliate made its own move to take advantage of that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>此次发行正值投资者对电动汽车的狂热兴趣之际，以及沃尔沃一家专注于电动汽车的子公司采取了自己的行动来利用这种热情之后。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, Polestar, a Swedish electric-vehicle maker jointly owned by Volvo, Geely and others, announced plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition company and list in New York in a deal that would value the Swedish EV company&nbsp;at roughly $20 billion.</p><p><blockquote>上周，沃尔沃、吉利等公司共同拥有的瑞典电动汽车制造商Polestar宣布计划与一家特殊目的收购公司合并，并在纽约上市，这笔交易对这家瑞典电动汽车公司的估值约为200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo Cars said last month that it expected to own close to 50% of the combined company after completion of Polestar’s merger with Gores Guggenheim Inc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃汽车上个月表示，在 Polestar 与 Gores Guggenheim Inc. 完成合并后，沃尔沃汽车预计将拥有合并后公司近 50% 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> The Polestar deal generated a pathway for Volvo to pursue its own offering by assigning a value of about $10 billion to Volvo’s stake, according to some of the people familiar with Volvo’s listing plans.</p><p><blockquote>据一些熟悉沃尔沃上市计划的人士透露，Polestar 交易通过向沃尔沃的股份分配约 100 亿美元的价值，为沃尔沃追求自己的收购开辟了道路。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Volvo and Geely backed away from considerations of merging Volvo with Geely Auto Group, raising expectations that the company would pursue a separate listing and greater independence from Geely Holding.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，沃尔沃和吉利放弃了将沃尔沃与吉利汽车集团合并的考虑，这引发了人们对该公司将寻求单独上市并更加独立于吉利控股的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Volvo Cars is especially well-positioned to deliver continued growth and harness the full potential of electrification and the delivery of safe autonomous-drive functions,” Eric Li, chairman of Geely Holding, said in May.</p><p><blockquote>“吉利控股公司董事长埃里克-李（Eric Li）在 5 月份表示：”沃尔沃汽车在实现持续增长、充分发挥电气化潜力和提供安全自动驾驶功能方面处于特别有利的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Ford bought Volvo in 1999 for 50 billion Swedish kronor&nbsp;, or about $6.47 billion at the time of the transaction. At the time, Volvo had 28,000 employees and produced about 400,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>福特于 1999 年以 500 亿瑞典克朗（交易时约合 64.7 亿美元）收购了沃尔沃。当时，沃尔沃拥有 28,000 名员工，每年生产约 400,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> By 2009, when Ford put the company up for sale, Volvo was struggling. After Geely stepped in, it poured in money. Over the course of a decade, Geely invested more than $11 billion, financing a modernization of the company’s model lineup, an early shift into electric vehicles, and factories in China that helped Volvo cash in on China’s surging appetite for Western cars.</p><p><blockquote>到 2009 年，当福特将公司出售时，沃尔沃正陷入困境。吉利介入后，砸钱。在十年间，吉利投资了 110 多亿美元，为公司车型阵容的现代化、尽早转向电动汽车以及在中国建立工厂提供了资金，帮助沃尔沃利用了中国对西方汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In 2018, Volvo opened its first U.S. factory. The brand had once been a household name in suburban America in the 1970s. But it had to rebuild its business in the world’s most lucrative car market.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，沃尔沃开设了第一家美国工厂。这个品牌在20世纪70年代曾是美国郊区家喻户晓的名字。但它必须在世界上最赚钱的汽车市场重建业务。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo produces the S60 sedan in Charleston, S.C. Next year, the South Carolina plant intends to produce an electric version of the company’s XC90, a large, premium sport-utility vehicle. Volvo has invested more than $1 billion in the plant and employs 1,500 people there. The company has said that its U.S. plant will be the first to shift entirely to electric-car production.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃在南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿生产 S60 轿车明年，南卡罗来纳州工厂打算生产该公司 XC90 的电动版，这是一款大型高端运动型多功能车。沃尔沃已在该工厂投资超过 10 亿美元，拥有 1,500 名员工。该公司表示，其美国工厂将是第一家完全转向电动汽车生产的工厂。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Volvo Cars Is Completing Plans for IPO in Stockholm<blockquote>沃尔沃汽车正在完成在斯德哥尔摩的IPO计划</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVolvo Cars Is Completing Plans for IPO in Stockholm<blockquote>沃尔沃汽车正在完成在斯德哥尔摩的IPO计划</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-04 17:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing plans for an initial public offering and is set to announce details of the listing as early as Monday, in a deal that could value the car maker at as much as $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国浙江吉利控股集团有限公司旗下的瑞典汽车制造商沃尔沃汽车正在完成首次公开募股计划，最早将于周一公布上市细节，据知情人士透露，这笔交易可能对这家汽车制造商的估值高达250亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> A listing, if it goes ahead, would represent one of the car industry’s most dramatic turnarounds.Ford MotorCo., weakened by the global financial crisis, sold the Swedish company to Geelyfor $1.8 billion in 2010.</p><p><blockquote>如果上市成行，将代表汽车行业最戏剧性的转变之一。受全球金融危机影响，福特汽车公司于 2010 年以 18 亿美元的价格将这家瑞典公司出售给了吉利。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has long capitalized on a brand recognized for safety, but at the time of its sale, its product lineup had failed to excite car buyers. Geely bankrolled Volvo’s recovery over the next decade, opening China as a market for the brand and providing financing to help the company revamp its model offerings.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃长期以来一直利用一个以安全著称的品牌，但在出售时，其产品阵容未能激发购车者的兴趣。吉利在接下来的十年里为沃尔沃的复苏提供了资金，将中国作为沃尔沃品牌的市场开放市场，并提供融资帮助沃尔沃改进其车型产品。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Volvo is profitable, with a road map for electric-model rollouts that is ahead of some competitors. Its brand is back in fashion in the U.S. and elsewhere. It now competes with German premium brands, including BMW makerBayerische Motoren WerkeAG,VolkswagenAG’sAudi brand andDaimlerAG’sMercedes-Benz.</p><p><blockquote>如今，沃尔沃已实现盈利，其电动车型推出路线图领先于一些竞争对手。它的品牌在美国和其他地方重新流行起来。它现在与德国高端品牌竞争，包括宝马制造商巴伐利亚汽车公司、大众汽车公司的沙特品牌和戴姆勒公司的梅赛德斯-奔驰。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of this year, Volvo reported a 41% increase in sales over the same period last year, to 380,757 vehicles. The company’s sales in the U.S. rose 47% to 63,754 vehicles. Europe remains Volvo’s biggest market.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，沃尔沃的销量比去年同期增长了41%，达到380,757辆。该公司在美国的销量增长了 47%，达到 63,754 辆。欧洲仍然是沃尔沃最大的市场。</blockquote></p><p> At a valuation of $25 billion, Volvo would be bigger than European car maker&nbsp;Renault&nbsp;SA,which has a market value of a little more than $10 billion. That is despite Volvo selling a fraction of the cars Renault sells each year. Volvo’s size, though, would pale against the world’s biggest car makers, including&nbsp;General MotorsCo.and Volkswagen, underscoring the competitive challenge the Swedish company faces. Its value would also sharply trail the $767.5 billion market capitalization of electric-vehicle leaderTeslaInc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃的估值为 250 亿美元，将超过市值略高于 100 亿美元的欧洲汽车制造商雷诺公司。尽管沃尔沃每年的销量只是雷诺每年销量的一小部分。不过，沃尔沃的规模与通用汽车公司和大众汽车等全球最大的汽车制造商相比相形见绌，这凸显了这家瑞典公司面临的竞争挑战。其价值也将大幅落后于电动汽车领导者特斯拉公司 7,675 亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a listing would provide investors another competitor to bet on in an auto-industry race to roll out electric vehicles. Volvo was the first conventional auto maker to begin phasing out internal-combustion engines, ending its production of cars only powered by fossil fuels in 2019. Since then, every new Volvo is either a fully electric or hybrid model.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上市仍将为投资者在汽车行业推出电动汽车的竞赛中提供另一个可以押注的竞争对手。沃尔沃是第一家开始逐步淘汰内燃机的传统汽车制造商，并于 2019 年停止生产仅使用化石燃料的汽车。从那时起，每辆新沃尔沃都是全电动或混合动力车型。</blockquote></p><p> Most big auto makers have since said that they also will be phasing out conventional engines in new vehicles, by around 2035.</p><p><blockquote>此后，大多数大型汽车制造商都表示，到 2035 年左右，他们还将逐步淘汰新车中的传统发动机。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo has floated the idea of a possible listing as far back as 2018, and in May said it&nbsp;was considering an IPO&nbsp;on the Stockholm stock exchange. Such a listing could provide the company a broader shareholder base and greater independence from its Chinese investors. In September, Reuters reported that Volvo was in talks to list its shares in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃早在 2018 年就提出了可能上市的想法，并于 5 月份表示正在考虑在斯德哥尔摩证券交易所 IPO。这样的上市可以为该公司提供更广泛的股东基础，并使其独立于中国投资者。9 月，路透社报道称，沃尔沃正在就未来几周内上市进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how big a stake Geely plans to sell, but it has previously indicated it would likely remain a major shareholder after any offering. A decision on the details of the listing and its public disclosure could be delayed, but people familiar with the plans said a final call was imminent.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚吉利计划出售多大的股份，但吉利此前曾表示，在发行后，吉利可能仍将是主要股东。关于上市细节及其公开披露的决定可能会推迟，但知情人士表示，最终看涨期权即将举行。</blockquote></p><p> An offering would come amid a frenzy of investor interest in electric vehicles and after an EV-focused Volvo affiliate made its own move to take advantage of that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>此次发行正值投资者对电动汽车的狂热兴趣之际，以及沃尔沃一家专注于电动汽车的子公司采取了自己的行动来利用这种热情之后。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, Polestar, a Swedish electric-vehicle maker jointly owned by Volvo, Geely and others, announced plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition company and list in New York in a deal that would value the Swedish EV company&nbsp;at roughly $20 billion.</p><p><blockquote>上周，沃尔沃、吉利等公司共同拥有的瑞典电动汽车制造商Polestar宣布计划与一家特殊目的收购公司合并，并在纽约上市，这笔交易对这家瑞典电动汽车公司的估值约为200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo Cars said last month that it expected to own close to 50% of the combined company after completion of Polestar’s merger with Gores Guggenheim Inc.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃汽车上个月表示，在 Polestar 与 Gores Guggenheim Inc. 完成合并后，沃尔沃汽车预计将拥有合并后公司近 50% 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> The Polestar deal generated a pathway for Volvo to pursue its own offering by assigning a value of about $10 billion to Volvo’s stake, according to some of the people familiar with Volvo’s listing plans.</p><p><blockquote>据一些熟悉沃尔沃上市计划的人士透露，Polestar 交易通过向沃尔沃的股份分配约 100 亿美元的价值，为沃尔沃追求自己的收购开辟了道路。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Volvo and Geely backed away from considerations of merging Volvo with Geely Auto Group, raising expectations that the company would pursue a separate listing and greater independence from Geely Holding.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，沃尔沃和吉利放弃了将沃尔沃与吉利汽车集团合并的考虑，这引发了人们对该公司将寻求单独上市并更加独立于吉利控股的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Volvo Cars is especially well-positioned to deliver continued growth and harness the full potential of electrification and the delivery of safe autonomous-drive functions,” Eric Li, chairman of Geely Holding, said in May.</p><p><blockquote>“吉利控股公司董事长埃里克-李（Eric Li）在 5 月份表示：”沃尔沃汽车在实现持续增长、充分发挥电气化潜力和提供安全自动驾驶功能方面处于特别有利的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Ford bought Volvo in 1999 for 50 billion Swedish kronor&nbsp;, or about $6.47 billion at the time of the transaction. At the time, Volvo had 28,000 employees and produced about 400,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>福特于 1999 年以 500 亿瑞典克朗（交易时约合 64.7 亿美元）收购了沃尔沃。当时，沃尔沃拥有 28,000 名员工，每年生产约 400,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> By 2009, when Ford put the company up for sale, Volvo was struggling. After Geely stepped in, it poured in money. Over the course of a decade, Geely invested more than $11 billion, financing a modernization of the company’s model lineup, an early shift into electric vehicles, and factories in China that helped Volvo cash in on China’s surging appetite for Western cars.</p><p><blockquote>到 2009 年，当福特将公司出售时，沃尔沃正陷入困境。吉利介入后，砸钱。在十年间，吉利投资了 110 多亿美元，为公司车型阵容的现代化、尽早转向电动汽车以及在中国建立工厂提供了资金，帮助沃尔沃利用了中国对西方汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In 2018, Volvo opened its first U.S. factory. The brand had once been a household name in suburban America in the 1970s. But it had to rebuild its business in the world’s most lucrative car market.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，沃尔沃开设了第一家美国工厂。这个品牌在20世纪70年代曾是美国郊区家喻户晓的名字。但它必须在世界上最赚钱的汽车市场重建业务。</blockquote></p><p> Volvo produces the S60 sedan in Charleston, S.C. Next year, the South Carolina plant intends to produce an electric version of the company’s XC90, a large, premium sport-utility vehicle. Volvo has invested more than $1 billion in the plant and employs 1,500 people there. The company has said that its U.S. plant will be the first to shift entirely to electric-car production.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔沃在南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿生产 S60 轿车明年，南卡罗来纳州工厂打算生产该公司 XC90 的电动版，这是一款大型高端运动型多功能车。沃尔沃已在该工厂投资超过 10 亿美元，拥有 1,500 名员工。该公司表示，其美国工厂将是第一家完全转向电动汽车生产的工厂。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/volvo-cars-is-finalizing-plans-for-ipo-in-stockholm-11633283394?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VLVLY":"Volvo AB","00175":"吉利汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/volvo-cars-is-finalizing-plans-for-ipo-in-stockholm-11633283394?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183951893","content_text":"Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. of China, is completing plans for an initial public offering and is set to announce details of the listing as early as Monday, in a deal that could value the car maker at as much as $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.\nA listing, if it goes ahead, would represent one of the car industry’s most dramatic turnarounds.Ford MotorCo., weakened by the global financial crisis, sold the Swedish company to Geelyfor $1.8 billion in 2010.\nVolvo has long capitalized on a brand recognized for safety, but at the time of its sale, its product lineup had failed to excite car buyers. Geely bankrolled Volvo’s recovery over the next decade, opening China as a market for the brand and providing financing to help the company revamp its model offerings.\nToday, Volvo is profitable, with a road map for electric-model rollouts that is ahead of some competitors. Its brand is back in fashion in the U.S. and elsewhere. It now competes with German premium brands, including BMW makerBayerische Motoren WerkeAG,VolkswagenAG’sAudi brand andDaimlerAG’sMercedes-Benz.\nFor the first half of this year, Volvo reported a 41% increase in sales over the same period last year, to 380,757 vehicles. The company’s sales in the U.S. rose 47% to 63,754 vehicles. Europe remains Volvo’s biggest market.\nAt a valuation of $25 billion, Volvo would be bigger than European car maker Renault SA,which has a market value of a little more than $10 billion. That is despite Volvo selling a fraction of the cars Renault sells each year. Volvo’s size, though, would pale against the world’s biggest car makers, including General MotorsCo.and Volkswagen, underscoring the competitive challenge the Swedish company faces. Its value would also sharply trail the $767.5 billion market capitalization of electric-vehicle leaderTeslaInc.\nStill, a listing would provide investors another competitor to bet on in an auto-industry race to roll out electric vehicles. Volvo was the first conventional auto maker to begin phasing out internal-combustion engines, ending its production of cars only powered by fossil fuels in 2019. Since then, every new Volvo is either a fully electric or hybrid model.\nMost big auto makers have since said that they also will be phasing out conventional engines in new vehicles, by around 2035.\nVolvo has floated the idea of a possible listing as far back as 2018, and in May said it was considering an IPO on the Stockholm stock exchange. Such a listing could provide the company a broader shareholder base and greater independence from its Chinese investors. In September, Reuters reported that Volvo was in talks to list its shares in the coming weeks.\nIt isn’t clear how big a stake Geely plans to sell, but it has previously indicated it would likely remain a major shareholder after any offering. A decision on the details of the listing and its public disclosure could be delayed, but people familiar with the plans said a final call was imminent.\nAn offering would come amid a frenzy of investor interest in electric vehicles and after an EV-focused Volvo affiliate made its own move to take advantage of that enthusiasm.\nLast week, Polestar, a Swedish electric-vehicle maker jointly owned by Volvo, Geely and others, announced plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition company and list in New York in a deal that would value the Swedish EV company at roughly $20 billion.\nVolvo Cars said last month that it expected to own close to 50% of the combined company after completion of Polestar’s merger with Gores Guggenheim Inc.\nThe Polestar deal generated a pathway for Volvo to pursue its own offering by assigning a value of about $10 billion to Volvo’s stake, according to some of the people familiar with Volvo’s listing plans.\nEarlier this year, Volvo and Geely backed away from considerations of merging Volvo with Geely Auto Group, raising expectations that the company would pursue a separate listing and greater independence from Geely Holding.\n“Volvo Cars is especially well-positioned to deliver continued growth and harness the full potential of electrification and the delivery of safe autonomous-drive functions,” Eric Li, chairman of Geely Holding, said in May.\nFord bought Volvo in 1999 for 50 billion Swedish kronor , or about $6.47 billion at the time of the transaction. At the time, Volvo had 28,000 employees and produced about 400,000 vehicles a year.\nBy 2009, when Ford put the company up for sale, Volvo was struggling. After Geely stepped in, it poured in money. Over the course of a decade, Geely invested more than $11 billion, financing a modernization of the company’s model lineup, an early shift into electric vehicles, and factories in China that helped Volvo cash in on China’s surging appetite for Western cars.\nIn 2018, Volvo opened its first U.S. factory. The brand had once been a household name in suburban America in the 1970s. But it had to rebuild its business in the world’s most lucrative car market.\nVolvo produces the S60 sedan in Charleston, S.C. Next year, the South Carolina plant intends to produce an electric version of the company’s XC90, a large, premium sport-utility vehicle. Volvo has invested more than $1 billion in the plant and employs 1,500 people there. The company has said that its U.S. plant will be the first to shift entirely to electric-car production.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00175":0.9,"VLVLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832931372,"gmtCreate":1629556032396,"gmtModify":1633684059966,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like for like!&nbsp;","listText":"Like for like!&nbsp;","text":"Like for like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832931372","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898537569,"gmtCreate":1628508968551,"gmtModify":1633746593451,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Third booster shot and the path dependency based on their initial high efficacy means that Pfizer's lead is likely to stay indefinitely.&nbsp;","listText":"Third booster shot and the path dependency based on their initial high efficacy means that Pfizer's lead is likely to stay indefinitely.&nbsp;","text":"Third booster shot and the path dependency based on their initial high efficacy means that Pfizer's lead is likely to stay indefinitely.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898537569","repostId":"2158844506","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167291526,"gmtCreate":1624268824665,"gmtModify":1634008652490,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"FUD alert 😂","listText":"FUD alert 😂","text":"FUD alert 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167291526","repostId":"1153139723","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129350459,"gmtCreate":1624361039171,"gmtModify":1634007313368,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"GME is going to go beyond being a brick and mortar games retailer.&nbsp;","listText":"GME is going to go beyond being a brick and mortar games retailer.&nbsp;","text":"GME is going to go beyond being a brick and mortar games retailer.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129350459","repostId":"1161172533","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161172533","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624360705,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161172533?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop completes at-the-market equity offering after raising $1.126 billion, stock jumps 6.84% premarket<blockquote>游戏驿站筹集 11.26 亿美元后完成场内股票发行，盘前股价上涨 6.84%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161172533","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 15) GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuin","content":"<p>(June 15)&nbsp;GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuing 5 million shares to raise about $1.126 billion. The videogame retailer and leading meme stock said it will use the proceeds for the catch-all general corporate purposes and for growth initiatives, while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. </p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）游戏驿站周二表示，在发行500万股股票筹集约11.26亿美元后，该公司已完成场内股票发行。这家视频游戏零售商和领先的模因股票表示，将把所得款项用于全面的一般企业用途和增长计划，同时保持健康的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> The stock jumped 6.84% premarket and has gained 964% in the year to date, spurred on by Reddit subgroup WallStreetBets, who are betting the company can restore its business under new leadership. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, +1.40% has gained 12.5% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>在 Reddit 子组 WallStreetBets 的推动下，该股盘前上涨 6.84%，今年迄今已上涨 964%，该子组押注该公司能够在新领导层的带领下恢复业务。标普500 SPX，+1.40%，同期上涨12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4772ce5d4d1e2d998daa7d0cddf05c0\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop completes at-the-market equity offering after raising $1.126 billion, stock jumps 6.84% premarket<blockquote>游戏驿站筹集 11.26 亿美元后完成场内股票发行，盘前股价上涨 6.84%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop completes at-the-market equity offering after raising $1.126 billion, stock jumps 6.84% premarket<blockquote>游戏驿站筹集 11.26 亿美元后完成场内股票发行，盘前股价上涨 6.84%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 15)&nbsp;GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuing 5 million shares to raise about $1.126 billion. The videogame retailer and leading meme stock said it will use the proceeds for the catch-all general corporate purposes and for growth initiatives, while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. </p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）游戏驿站周二表示，在发行500万股股票筹集约11.26亿美元后，该公司已完成场内股票发行。这家视频游戏零售商和领先的模因股票表示，将把所得款项用于全面的一般企业用途和增长计划，同时保持健康的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> The stock jumped 6.84% premarket and has gained 964% in the year to date, spurred on by Reddit subgroup WallStreetBets, who are betting the company can restore its business under new leadership. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, +1.40% has gained 12.5% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>在 Reddit 子组 WallStreetBets 的推动下，该股盘前上涨 6.84%，今年迄今已上涨 964%，该子组押注该公司能够在新领导层的带领下恢复业务。标普500 SPX，+1.40%，同期上涨12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4772ce5d4d1e2d998daa7d0cddf05c0\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161172533","content_text":"(June 15) GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuing 5 million shares to raise about $1.126 billion. The videogame retailer and leading meme stock said it will use the proceeds for the catch-all general corporate purposes and for growth initiatives, while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. \nThe stock jumped 6.84% premarket and has gained 964% in the year to date, spurred on by Reddit subgroup WallStreetBets, who are betting the company can restore its business under new leadership. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.40% has gained 12.5% in the same period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":826287574,"gmtCreate":1634026089217,"gmtModify":1634026097342,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826287574","repostId":"828515753","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":828515753,"gmtCreate":1633923851747,"gmtModify":1633984527317,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556134694513016","authorIdStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"KeppelDC REIT Has Been Correcting - Potential $2.15 Coming?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a> has been one of the performing stars in the SREIT universe for quite some time since its’ IPO.Investors who are looking to buy this REIT has been given very little to no chance to add on to their shares as the company continues to shoulder on its meteoric rise in the past few years.Since hitting the peak of $3.13 sometime in October last year, the company has undergone quite a bit of correction over the past few months, breaking it’s support each time as it moves lower.With the company trading at $2.34 today, is this a good opportunity to add on to the shares given their longer term prospect?Maiden Acquisition in China with a high 9% NPI Yield:The maiden acquisition in&nbsp;Guangdong Data Centre&nbsp;locat","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a> has been one of the performing stars in the SREIT universe for quite some time since its’ IPO.Investors who are looking to buy this REIT has been given very little to no chance to add on to their shares as the company continues to shoulder on its meteoric rise in the past few years.Since hitting the peak of $3.13 sometime in October last year, the company has undergone quite a bit of correction over the past few months, breaking it’s support each time as it moves lower.With the company trading at $2.34 today, is this a good opportunity to add on to the shares given their longer term prospect?Maiden Acquisition in China with a high 9% NPI Yield:The maiden acquisition in&nbsp;Guangdong Data Centre&nbsp;locat","text":"$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$ has been one of the performing stars in the SREIT universe for quite some time since its’ IPO.Investors who are looking to buy this REIT has been given very little to no chance to add on to their shares as the company continues to shoulder on its meteoric rise in the past few years.Since hitting the peak of $3.13 sometime in October last year, the company has undergone quite a bit of correction over the past few months, breaking it’s support each time as it moves lower.With the company trading at $2.34 today, is this a good opportunity to add on to the shares given their longer term prospect?Maiden Acquisition in China with a high 9% NPI Yield:The maiden acquisition in Guangdong Data Centre locat","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a1c0c93b58898ee07897dd6539766c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08e5927471ce7ad96d042822dd24bb9"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce8d11aa2028ae2f64a7c01be0262bc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828515753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820453072,"gmtCreate":1633421436173,"gmtModify":1633421436248,"author":{"id":"3555249757581559","authorId":"3555249757581559","name":"Anh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555249757581559","authorIdStr":"3555249757581559"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820453072","repostId":"2172873995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}