2025吧的个人主页 - 老虎社区

2025吧

2025吧

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0勋章

11-20 23:03

$PayPal(PYPL)$ 做空paypal的人都下地狱

11-20 06:08

$PayPal(PYPL)$ 大盘小跌你大跌，大盘红你依然绿，6连跌，臭不要脸

11-19 02:39

$PayPal(PYPL)$ sb股

11-15

$PayPal(PYPL)$ 跌的像自由落体，疫情时股票300…高管都是一群废物，拿着高薪不作为！

11-14

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 期货为啥又大跌啊

11-14

大A今天的表现已经说明了一切，必须跟跌

11-12

$腾讯音乐(TME)$ 做空的人要死啊

11-05

胡说八道

PayPal第三季度：仍未出现拐点，价值陷阱依然存在

10-11

$PayPal(PYPL)$ 纳指涨到2万多你都不动，跌的时候你是大盘跌的两倍，死不要脸

07-30

管理层决策有问题，放弃了努力开发新客户(觉得成本高），没新客户Tpv怎么可能维持高增长。

05-16

$PayPal(PYPL)$ 天天跑不赢大盘，啥也不是

03-04

$PayPal(PYPL)$ 垃圾透顶，不是说要回购么，怎么不回购！今天这是补跌吗！

2024-01-20

$英特尔(INTC)$ 买不起英伟达，就买了英特尔[财迷]

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做空paypal的人都下地狱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502301635994496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465877826119039","authorId":"3465877826119039","name":"一雨成烟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467d481c895f6bfd337b50860c3b84e2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3465877826119039","authorIdStr":"3465877826119039"},"content":"这股股性是好差，今年大跌的时候它最低55，现在大盘新高，它快接近新低了。我都麻了，美股真不知道怎么炒了。","text":"这股股性是好差，今年大跌的时候它最低55，现在大盘新高，它快接近新低了。我都麻了，美股真不知道怎么炒了。","html":"这股股性是好差，今年大跌的时候它最低55，现在大盘新高，它快接近新低了。我都麻了，美股真不知道怎么炒了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502054193971464,"gmtCreate":1763590138220,"gmtModify":1763591569730,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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大盘小跌你大跌，大盘红你依然绿，6连跌，臭不要脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502054193971464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465877826119039","authorId":"3465877826119039","name":"一雨成烟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467d481c895f6bfd337b50860c3b84e2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3465877826119039","authorIdStr":"3465877826119039"},"content":"主要是这货业绩也不差，也没涨过不知道为什么完全不涨一点。","text":"主要是这货业绩也不差，也没涨过不知道为什么完全不涨一点。","html":"主要是这货业绩也不差，也没涨过不知道为什么完全不涨一点。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":501690293424232,"gmtCreate":1763491148011,"gmtModify":1763502501861,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a> sb股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a> sb股","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ sb股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501690293424232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500195725382256,"gmtCreate":1763158345198,"gmtModify":1763172103412,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a> 跌的像自由落体，疫情时股票300…高管都是一群废物，拿着高薪不作为！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a> 跌的像自由落体，疫情时股票300…高管都是一群废物，拿着高薪不作为！","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ 跌的像自由落体，疫情时股票300…高管都是一群废物，拿着高薪不作为！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500195725382256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465877826119039","authorId":"3465877826119039","name":"一雨成烟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467d481c895f6bfd337b50860c3b84e2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3465877826119039","authorIdStr":"3465877826119039"},"content":"就算不涨也不至于这么跌呀，这股是真没涨啊","text":"就算不涨也不至于这么跌呀，这股是真没涨啊","html":"就算不涨也不至于这么跌呀，这股是真没涨啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500111941537856,"gmtCreate":1763122750524,"gmtModify":1763122752308,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 期货为啥又大跌啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 期货为啥又大跌啊","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 期货为啥又大跌啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500111941537856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500106600076048,"gmtCreate":1763121299148,"gmtModify":1763121301634,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大A今天的表现已经说明了一切，必须跟跌","listText":"大A今天的表现已经说明了一切，必须跟跌","text":"大A今天的表现已经说明了一切，必须跟跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500106600076048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499438033245040,"gmtCreate":1762958580879,"gmtModify":1762958582630,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$&nbsp;</a> 做空的人要死啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$&nbsp;</a> 做空的人要死啊","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$ 做空的人要死啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499438033245040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556585696539203","authorId":"3556585696539203","name":"wxl王先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7903474c7170e55e6c524ac5ebd98102","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3556585696539203","authorIdStr":"3556585696539203"},"content":"这是什么垃圾了，真尼玛的","text":"这是什么垃圾了，真尼玛的","html":"这是什么垃圾了，真尼玛的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496773835764144,"gmtCreate":1762305365787,"gmtModify":1762305368129,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"胡说八道","listText":"胡说八道","text":"胡说八道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496773835764144","repostId":"2580075809","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2580075809","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762257738,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2580075809?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-04 20:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"PayPal第三季度：仍未出现拐点，价值陷阱依然存在","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2580075809","media":"美股研究社","summary":"受 OpenAI 合作消息推动，PayPal股价在第三季度财报发布前上涨 15%，但次日涨势便迅速消退。尽管第三季度业绩超预期，市场反应却较为平淡。2025 财年第三季度，PayPal 44% 的总收入来自国际市场，2025 年其在线支付全球市场份额接近 45%。在德国，多数在线商店使用PayPal，为其贡献了大量国际品牌支付额。综上，PayPal 2025 财年第三季度营收与利润均超预期，但尚未出现实质增长拐点。PayPal需要一个 “爆款季度”才能说服投资者，否则 “价值陷阱” 局面仍将持续。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251104224001367v163sylq0fwqwbx\"/><p>受 OpenAI 合作消息推动，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>股价在第三季度财报发布前上涨 15%，但次日涨势便迅速消退。尽管第三季度业绩超预期，市场反应却较为平淡。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><p>整体来看，第三季度业绩略呈积极态势，净营收增速持续回升：</p><p>总支付额（TPV）同比增长 7.4%，较第二季度的 5.4% 有所反弹，但仍低于去年同期的 9%；</p><p>交易收入同比增长 6.4%，与 2024 财年第三季度的 6.2% 基本持平；</p><p>先买后付（BNPL）和 Venmo 的总支付额增速虽保持强劲，但两者对整体业绩的贡献仍有限。</p><p>PayPal的利润率不仅没有提升，环比还略有收缩。</p><p>目前，利润率并非PayPal的优先目标，公司仍在钱包、先买后付、AI 代理等高增长领域投入大量资金。</p><p>管理层希望投资者更多关注 “交易边际美元”（净营收减去交易费用及交易与贷款损失），该指标第三季度同比增长 5.9%，环比低于第二季度的 6.5%。</p><p>在第三季度财报电话会议中，管理层提到该指标已达到此前指引区间的上限，并重申长期目标是实现高个位数增长 ——但相较于 2024 财年 7% 的同比增速，这并不意味着增长拐点即将到来。</p><p>此外，PayPal宣布将启动股息发放，目标股息支付率为<span>净利润</span>的 10%。</p><p>2025 财年第三季度，PayPal 44% 的总收入来自国际市场，2025 年其在线支付全球市场份额接近 45%。在德国，多数在线商店使用PayPal，为其贡献了大量国际品牌支付额。</p><p>今年 8 月，PayPal在德国遭遇服务中断，欺诈交易激增导致德国各银行标记了超过 117 亿美元的支付额。尽管混乱仅持续一天，但环比交易损失有所增加。管理层表示，这一事件对交易边际美元增长造成了 1.5% 的拖累。</p><p>尽管PayPal上调了 2025 财年业绩指引，但这实则可能暗示第四季度交易边际美元前景平淡：</p><p>从指引细节来看，多数项目与此前一致，仅交易边际美元全年指引较 2025 年 7 月上调 7500 万美元；</p><p>但第三季度该指标已达 38.7 亿美元，较此前指引区间中点（37.9 亿美元）高出 8000 万美元，这意味着第四季度可能存在 50 亿美元的缺口；</p><p>此外，第四季度交易边际美元同比增速预计仅为低个位数，远低于去年同期的 7.2%。对看好PayPal的投资者而言，这仍是一场需要耐心的<span>长期投资</span>。</p><p>不过，与 OpenAI 的合作可能成为PayPal长期增长的催化剂。据最新报告，OpenAI 首席执行官山姆・奥特曼（Sam Altman）表示，10 月 ChatGPT 周活跃用户已达 8 亿，较 3 月的 5 亿增长 60%。通过在 ChatGPT 中接入PayPal品牌结账功能，PayPal有望逐步获取更多支付额。</p><p>随着 AI 热潮兴起，消费者行为已发生变化 —— 越来越多人依赖 AI 寻找最优交易、优化购买决策。</p><p>在支付领域，PayPal近期推出了 “智能代理商务服务”，允许商家通过 OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、Perplexity 等 AI 平台开展销售。但管理层也坦言，该业务的 monetization 仍需时间，短期内无法推动业绩实现显著增长。</p><p>目前PayPal的估值倍数处于低位，但正如前文所述，它已陷入 “价值陷阱” 多年 ——核心增长指标（总支付额、交易边际美元、活跃客户数）均未显现短期增长拐点。其非公认会计准则动态市盈率为 13 倍，与三个月前分析师下调评级时基本持平。</p><p>尽管相较于标普 500 指数 23 倍的动态市盈率，PayPal的估值看似很低，但一只股票长期低估，通常反映出其基本面正在恶化，且复苏时间表不明。</p><p>综上，PayPal 2025 财年第三季度营收与利润均超预期，但尚未出现实质增长拐点。交易边际美元增速虽有改善，但同比仍显疲软。</p><p>2025 财年业绩指引上调，主要得益于第三季度表现超预期，这实则暗示第四季度前景平淡。</p><p>尽管与 OpenAI 的合作及智能代理商务服务能提振市场情绪，但热度消退迅速（上周五股价走势已印证这一点）。PayPal需要一个 “爆款季度”才能说服投资者，否则 “价值陷阱” 局面仍将持续。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251104224005189v163xd7nnk8zs4u\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251104224010215v16332yw9826y9b\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal第三季度：仍未出现拐点，价值陷阱依然存在</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal第三季度：仍未出现拐点，价值陷阱依然存在\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-04 20:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251104224013a4881376&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>受 OpenAI 合作消息推动，PayPal股价在第三季度财报发布前上涨 15%，但次日涨势便迅速消退。尽管第三季度业绩超预期，市场反应却较为平淡。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】整体来看，第三季度业绩略呈积极态势，净营收增速持续回升：总支付额（TPV）同比增长 7.4%，较第二季度的 5.4% 有所反弹，但仍低于去年同期的 9%；交易收入同比增长 6.4%，与 2024 财年第三季度的 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251104224013a4881376&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4227":"交易和支付处理服务","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2360107671.USD":"BGF FINTECH \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) 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7.4%，较第二季度的 5.4% 有所反弹，但仍低于去年同期的 9%；交易收入同比增长 6.4%，与 2024 财年第三季度的 6.2% 基本持平；先买后付（BNPL）和 Venmo 的总支付额增速虽保持强劲，但两者对整体业绩的贡献仍有限。PayPal的利润率不仅没有提升，环比还略有收缩。目前，利润率并非PayPal的优先目标，公司仍在钱包、先买后付、AI 代理等高增长领域投入大量资金。管理层希望投资者更多关注 “交易边际美元”（净营收减去交易费用及交易与贷款损失），该指标第三季度同比增长 5.9%，环比低于第二季度的 6.5%。在第三季度财报电话会议中，管理层提到该指标已达到此前指引区间的上限，并重申长期目标是实现高个位数增长 ——但相较于 2024 财年 7% 的同比增速，这并不意味着增长拐点即将到来。此外，PayPal宣布将启动股息发放，目标股息支付率为净利润的 10%。2025 财年第三季度，PayPal 44% 的总收入来自国际市场，2025 年其在线支付全球市场份额接近 45%。在德国，多数在线商店使用PayPal，为其贡献了大量国际品牌支付额。今年 8 月，PayPal在德国遭遇服务中断，欺诈交易激增导致德国各银行标记了超过 117 亿美元的支付额。尽管混乱仅持续一天，但环比交易损失有所增加。管理层表示，这一事件对交易边际美元增长造成了 1.5% 的拖累。尽管PayPal上调了 2025 财年业绩指引，但这实则可能暗示第四季度交易边际美元前景平淡：从指引细节来看，多数项目与此前一致，仅交易边际美元全年指引较 2025 年 7 月上调 7500 万美元；但第三季度该指标已达 38.7 亿美元，较此前指引区间中点（37.9 亿美元）高出 8000 万美元，这意味着第四季度可能存在 50 亿美元的缺口；此外，第四季度交易边际美元同比增速预计仅为低个位数，远低于去年同期的 7.2%。对看好PayPal的投资者而言，这仍是一场需要耐心的长期投资。不过，与 OpenAI 的合作可能成为PayPal长期增长的催化剂。据最新报告，OpenAI 首席执行官山姆・奥特曼（Sam Altman）表示，10 月 ChatGPT 周活跃用户已达 8 亿，较 3 月的 5 亿增长 60%。通过在 ChatGPT 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天天跑不赢大盘，啥也不是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/435590884328264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465877826119039","authorId":"3465877826119039","name":"一雨成烟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467d481c895f6bfd337b50860c3b84e2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3465877826119039","authorIdStr":"3465877826119039"},"content":"我不是90的本早就卖了","text":"我不是90的本早就卖了","html":"我不是90的本早就卖了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487903822320168,"gmtCreate":1760144750220,"gmtModify":1760145343982,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a>纳指涨到2万多你都不动，跌的时候你是大盘跌的两倍，死不要脸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a>纳指涨到2万多你都不动，跌的时候你是大盘跌的两倍，死不要脸","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ 纳指涨到2万多你都不动，跌的时候你是大盘跌的两倍，死不要脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487903822320168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":264967218737296,"gmtCreate":1705711609167,"gmtModify":1705718507860,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ 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买不起英伟达，就买了英特尔[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d997fe51f06a9d9956668eb24abe3891","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264967218737296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500106600076048,"gmtCreate":1763121299148,"gmtModify":1763121301634,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大A今天的表现已经说明了一切，必须跟跌","listText":"大A今天的表现已经说明了一切，必须跟跌","text":"大A今天的表现已经说明了一切，必须跟跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500106600076048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496773835764144,"gmtCreate":1762305365787,"gmtModify":1762305368129,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"胡说八道","listText":"胡说八道","text":"胡说八道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496773835764144","repostId":"2580075809","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2580075809","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762257738,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2580075809?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-04 20:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"PayPal第三季度：仍未出现拐点，价值陷阱依然存在","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2580075809","media":"美股研究社","summary":"受 OpenAI 合作消息推动，PayPal股价在第三季度财报发布前上涨 15%，但次日涨势便迅速消退。尽管第三季度业绩超预期，市场反应却较为平淡。2025 财年第三季度，PayPal 44% 的总收入来自国际市场，2025 年其在线支付全球市场份额接近 45%。在德国，多数在线商店使用PayPal，为其贡献了大量国际品牌支付额。综上，PayPal 2025 财年第三季度营收与利润均超预期，但尚未出现实质增长拐点。PayPal需要一个 “爆款季度”才能说服投资者，否则 “价值陷阱” 局面仍将持续。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251104224001367v163sylq0fwqwbx\"/><p>受 OpenAI 合作消息推动，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>股价在第三季度财报发布前上涨 15%，但次日涨势便迅速消退。尽管第三季度业绩超预期，市场反应却较为平淡。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><p>整体来看，第三季度业绩略呈积极态势，净营收增速持续回升：</p><p>总支付额（TPV）同比增长 7.4%，较第二季度的 5.4% 有所反弹，但仍低于去年同期的 9%；</p><p>交易收入同比增长 6.4%，与 2024 财年第三季度的 6.2% 基本持平；</p><p>先买后付（BNPL）和 Venmo 的总支付额增速虽保持强劲，但两者对整体业绩的贡献仍有限。</p><p>PayPal的利润率不仅没有提升，环比还略有收缩。</p><p>目前，利润率并非PayPal的优先目标，公司仍在钱包、先买后付、AI 代理等高增长领域投入大量资金。</p><p>管理层希望投资者更多关注 “交易边际美元”（净营收减去交易费用及交易与贷款损失），该指标第三季度同比增长 5.9%，环比低于第二季度的 6.5%。</p><p>在第三季度财报电话会议中，管理层提到该指标已达到此前指引区间的上限，并重申长期目标是实现高个位数增长 ——但相较于 2024 财年 7% 的同比增速，这并不意味着增长拐点即将到来。</p><p>此外，PayPal宣布将启动股息发放，目标股息支付率为<span>净利润</span>的 10%。</p><p>2025 财年第三季度，PayPal 44% 的总收入来自国际市场，2025 年其在线支付全球市场份额接近 45%。在德国，多数在线商店使用PayPal，为其贡献了大量国际品牌支付额。</p><p>今年 8 月，PayPal在德国遭遇服务中断，欺诈交易激增导致德国各银行标记了超过 117 亿美元的支付额。尽管混乱仅持续一天，但环比交易损失有所增加。管理层表示，这一事件对交易边际美元增长造成了 1.5% 的拖累。</p><p>尽管PayPal上调了 2025 财年业绩指引，但这实则可能暗示第四季度交易边际美元前景平淡：</p><p>从指引细节来看，多数项目与此前一致，仅交易边际美元全年指引较 2025 年 7 月上调 7500 万美元；</p><p>但第三季度该指标已达 38.7 亿美元，较此前指引区间中点（37.9 亿美元）高出 8000 万美元，这意味着第四季度可能存在 50 亿美元的缺口；</p><p>此外，第四季度交易边际美元同比增速预计仅为低个位数，远低于去年同期的 7.2%。对看好PayPal的投资者而言，这仍是一场需要耐心的<span>长期投资</span>。</p><p>不过，与 OpenAI 的合作可能成为PayPal长期增长的催化剂。据最新报告，OpenAI 首席执行官山姆・奥特曼（Sam Altman）表示，10 月 ChatGPT 周活跃用户已达 8 亿，较 3 月的 5 亿增长 60%。通过在 ChatGPT 中接入PayPal品牌结账功能，PayPal有望逐步获取更多支付额。</p><p>随着 AI 热潮兴起，消费者行为已发生变化 —— 越来越多人依赖 AI 寻找最优交易、优化购买决策。</p><p>在支付领域，PayPal近期推出了 “智能代理商务服务”，允许商家通过 OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、Perplexity 等 AI 平台开展销售。但管理层也坦言，该业务的 monetization 仍需时间，短期内无法推动业绩实现显著增长。</p><p>目前PayPal的估值倍数处于低位，但正如前文所述，它已陷入 “价值陷阱” 多年 ——核心增长指标（总支付额、交易边际美元、活跃客户数）均未显现短期增长拐点。其非公认会计准则动态市盈率为 13 倍，与三个月前分析师下调评级时基本持平。</p><p>尽管相较于标普 500 指数 23 倍的动态市盈率，PayPal的估值看似很低，但一只股票长期低估，通常反映出其基本面正在恶化，且复苏时间表不明。</p><p>综上，PayPal 2025 财年第三季度营收与利润均超预期，但尚未出现实质增长拐点。交易边际美元增速虽有改善，但同比仍显疲软。</p><p>2025 财年业绩指引上调，主要得益于第三季度表现超预期，这实则暗示第四季度前景平淡。</p><p>尽管与 OpenAI 的合作及智能代理商务服务能提振市场情绪，但热度消退迅速（上周五股价走势已印证这一点）。PayPal需要一个 “爆款季度”才能说服投资者，否则 “价值陷阱” 局面仍将持续。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251104224005189v163xd7nnk8zs4u\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251104224010215v16332yw9826y9b\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal第三季度：仍未出现拐点，价值陷阱依然存在</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal第三季度：仍未出现拐点，价值陷阱依然存在\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-04 20:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251104224013a4881376&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>受 OpenAI 合作消息推动，PayPal股价在第三季度财报发布前上涨 15%，但次日涨势便迅速消退。尽管第三季度业绩超预期，市场反应却较为平淡。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】整体来看，第三季度业绩略呈积极态势，净营收增速持续回升：总支付额（TPV）同比增长 7.4%，较第二季度的 5.4% 有所反弹，但仍低于去年同期的 9%；交易收入同比增长 6.4%，与 2024 财年第三季度的 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251104224013a4881376&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4227":"交易和支付处理服务","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2360107671.USD":"BGF FINTECH \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) 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7.4%，较第二季度的 5.4% 有所反弹，但仍低于去年同期的 9%；交易收入同比增长 6.4%，与 2024 财年第三季度的 6.2% 基本持平；先买后付（BNPL）和 Venmo 的总支付额增速虽保持强劲，但两者对整体业绩的贡献仍有限。PayPal的利润率不仅没有提升，环比还略有收缩。目前，利润率并非PayPal的优先目标，公司仍在钱包、先买后付、AI 代理等高增长领域投入大量资金。管理层希望投资者更多关注 “交易边际美元”（净营收减去交易费用及交易与贷款损失），该指标第三季度同比增长 5.9%，环比低于第二季度的 6.5%。在第三季度财报电话会议中，管理层提到该指标已达到此前指引区间的上限，并重申长期目标是实现高个位数增长 ——但相较于 2024 财年 7% 的同比增速，这并不意味着增长拐点即将到来。此外，PayPal宣布将启动股息发放，目标股息支付率为净利润的 10%。2025 财年第三季度，PayPal 44% 的总收入来自国际市场，2025 年其在线支付全球市场份额接近 45%。在德国，多数在线商店使用PayPal，为其贡献了大量国际品牌支付额。今年 8 月，PayPal在德国遭遇服务中断，欺诈交易激增导致德国各银行标记了超过 117 亿美元的支付额。尽管混乱仅持续一天，但环比交易损失有所增加。管理层表示，这一事件对交易边际美元增长造成了 1.5% 的拖累。尽管PayPal上调了 2025 财年业绩指引，但这实则可能暗示第四季度交易边际美元前景平淡：从指引细节来看，多数项目与此前一致，仅交易边际美元全年指引较 2025 年 7 月上调 7500 万美元；但第三季度该指标已达 38.7 亿美元，较此前指引区间中点（37.9 亿美元）高出 8000 万美元，这意味着第四季度可能存在 50 亿美元的缺口；此外，第四季度交易边际美元同比增速预计仅为低个位数，远低于去年同期的 7.2%。对看好PayPal的投资者而言，这仍是一场需要耐心的长期投资。不过，与 OpenAI 的合作可能成为PayPal长期增长的催化剂。据最新报告，OpenAI 首席执行官山姆・奥特曼（Sam Altman）表示，10 月 ChatGPT 周活跃用户已达 8 亿，较 3 月的 5 亿增长 60%。通过在 ChatGPT 中接入PayPal品牌结账功能，PayPal有望逐步获取更多支付额。随着 AI 热潮兴起，消费者行为已发生变化 —— 越来越多人依赖 AI 寻找最优交易、优化购买决策。在支付领域，PayPal近期推出了 “智能代理商务服务”，允许商家通过 OpenAI、谷歌、Perplexity 等 AI 平台开展销售。但管理层也坦言，该业务的 monetization 仍需时间，短期内无法推动业绩实现显著增长。目前PayPal的估值倍数处于低位，但正如前文所述，它已陷入 “价值陷阱” 多年 ——核心增长指标（总支付额、交易边际美元、活跃客户数）均未显现短期增长拐点。其非公认会计准则动态市盈率为 13 倍，与三个月前分析师下调评级时基本持平。尽管相较于标普 500 指数 23 倍的动态市盈率，PayPal的估值看似很低，但一只股票长期低估，通常反映出其基本面正在恶化，且复苏时间表不明。综上，PayPal 2025 财年第三季度营收与利润均超预期，但尚未出现实质增长拐点。交易边际美元增速虽有改善，但同比仍显疲软。2025 财年业绩指引上调，主要得益于第三季度表现超预期，这实则暗示第四季度前景平淡。尽管与 OpenAI 的合作及智能代理商务服务能提振市场情绪，但热度消退迅速（上周五股价走势已印证这一点）。PayPal需要一个 “爆款季度”才能说服投资者，否则 “价值陷阱” 局面仍将持续。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":462297642684424,"gmtCreate":1753883813753,"gmtModify":1753883816298,"author":{"id":"3556065552895480","authorId":"3556065552895480","name":"2025吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73817d98310d0365f82da58302b64296","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065552895480","authorIdStr":"3556065552895480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"管理层决策有问题，放弃了努力开发新客户(觉得成本高），没新客户Tpv怎么可能维持高增长。","listText":"管理层决策有问题，放弃了努力开发新客户(觉得成本高），没新客户Tpv怎么可能维持高增长。","text":"管理层决策有问题，放弃了努力开发新客户(觉得成本高），没新客户Tpv怎么可能维持高增长。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/462297642684424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}