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2025-11-19
小米17那定位能卖的好？我等着真实销量数据暴雷。
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le":"","htmlText":"小米17那定位能卖的好？我等着真实销量数据暴雷。","listText":"小米17那定位能卖的好？我等着真实销量数据暴雷。","text":"小米17那定位能卖的好？我等着真实销量数据暴雷。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501861650473304","repostId":"2584910099","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2584910099","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763522960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584910099?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-19 11:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米 Q3 财报亮眼但股价大跌：繁荣背后的隐忧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584910099","media":"有点子财运","summary":"2025 年 11 月 18 日，小米 Q3 财报交出多项创纪录答卷，营收、净利润等核心指标同比大幅增长，汽车业务更首现单季盈利。但诡异的是，其股价自 6 月高点已跌超33%，财报发布当日仍逆势下挫。即使 Q3 财报超预期，当日股价仍下跌2.81%。虽然 Q3 财报亮眼，但投资者更关注未来增长的可持续性。对投资者的建议：在质疑中寻找机遇：小米 Q3 财报与股价的背离并非个例，而是成长型企业常见的“业绩兑现 - 预期调整”周期。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251119120251295v201vap2bjgjrip\"/><p>2025 年 11 月 18 日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a> Q3 财报交出多项创纪录答卷，营收、<span>净利润</span>等核心指标同比大幅增长，汽车业务更首现单季盈利。但诡异的是，其股价自 6 月高点已跌超<strong>33%</strong>，财报发布当日仍逆势下挫。这种业绩与股价的强烈背离，本质是短期盈利兑现与长期增长预期的博弈，背后暗藏行业竞争、业务结构等多重隐忧。</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>财报亮点：多项指标创历史新高</strong></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a> Q3 财报 (11 月 18 日发布) 显示：</strong></p><p>营收<strong>1131.21</strong><strong>亿元</strong>，同比增长<strong>22.3</strong>%，连续4季度破千亿 ；</p><p>经调整净利润<strong>113.11 亿元</strong>，同比增长<strong>80.9%</strong>，创历史新高；</p><p>净利润<strong>122.57 亿元</strong>，同比增长<strong>129.5%</strong>；</p><p>经营利润<strong>151.1 亿元</strong>，同比增长<strong>150.1%</strong>；</p><p>汽车业务首次实现单季盈利，经营收益<strong>7 亿元</strong>，收入<strong>283 亿元</strong>(同比 + 199.2%)。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251119120302655v201i9jjzb8c9z8\"/><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>股价表现：与业绩背道而驰</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>股价从 2025 年 6 月历史高点61.45 港元一路跌至<strong>11 月 18 日的40.78 港元</strong>，累计跌幅<strong>33.6%</strong>，创 7 个月新低 。即使 Q3 财报超预期，当日股价仍下跌<strong>2.81%</strong>。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>背离原因：五大关键制约因素</strong></p><p><strong>1、核心业务增长乏力</strong></p><p><strong>手机业务：</strong>收入 475 亿元，同比下降 3.1%，毛利率下滑至 11.1%(连续 3 季度下滑)；</p><p><strong>IoT 业务</strong>：收入 261 亿元，环比暴跌 33%(二季度为 387 亿元)，远低于预期。</p><p><strong>2、成本压力持续攀升</strong></p><p>存储芯片等原材料价格上涨，导致每部手机利润减少 5-8 元，单季影响净利润 8-12 亿元；</p><p>高端化战略尚未完全见效，品牌溢价能力不足。</p><p><strong>3、做空潮涌：机构集体唱空</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>报告称小米已成为“共识性做空目标”，做空头寸一周内增加 53%；</p><p>多家国际投行下调目标价，担忧盈利可持续性。</p><p><strong>4、增长预期已被提前透支</strong></p><p>市场已提前消化 Q3 及 Q4 业绩利好 (小米 17 系列热销和前期订单释放)；</p><p>投资者更关注长期增长持续性而非短期业绩。</p><p><strong>5、行业竞争加剧</strong></p><p>智能手机市场饱和，价格战白热化；</p><p>电动汽车赛道竞争加剧，卢伟冰坦言 “2026 年汽车业务将面临挑战，毛利率可能不及今年”。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>辩证看待：危中有机</strong></p><p><strong>积极因素：</strong></p><p><strong>汽车业务突破：</strong>首次盈利标志第二增长曲线正式启动，毛利率达 25.5%；</p><p><strong>盈利能力提升：</strong>集团整体净<span>利率</span>稳定在 9% 以上，经营效率提高；</p><p><strong>估值优势显现：</strong>当前股价对应 2025 年 PE 约 20 倍，低于科技巨头平均水平；</p><p><strong>高端化战略见效：</strong>小米 17 系列带动 ASP 提升，全球市占率达 15% 创新高。</p><p><strong>风险因素：</strong></p><p><strong>手机业务增长瓶颈：</strong>出货量和毛利率双双承压，短期内难有根本好转；</p><p><strong>IoT 业务增长失速：</strong>大家电品类下滑拖累整体表现；</p><p><strong>汽车盈利持续性待验证：</strong>虽然 Q3 盈利，但单车成本仍高，规模化效应尚需时间。</p><p><strong>05</strong></p><p><strong>投资启示：理性看待业绩与股价</strong></p><p>小米当前局面反映了股市的一个重要规律：股价反映的是预期而非历史。虽然 Q3 财报亮眼，但投资者更关注未来增长的可持续性。</p><p><strong>对投资者的建议：</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251119120304315v201mp806ce7nkx\"/><p><strong>在质疑中寻找机遇：</strong></p><p>小米 Q3 财报与股价的背离并非个例，而是成长型企业常见的<strong>“业绩兑现 - 预期调整”</strong>周期。目前小米正处于传统业务转型与新业务突破的关键期，虽然面临挑战，但长期竞争力依然稳固。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米 Q3 财报亮眼但股价大跌：繁荣背后的隐忧</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米 Q3 财报亮眼但股价大跌：繁荣背后的隐忧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-19 11:29 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119120315a4abcbfc&s=b><strong>有点子财运</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025 年 11 月 18 日，小米 Q3 财报交出多项创纪录答卷，营收、净利润等核心指标同比大幅增长，汽车业务更首现单季盈利。但诡异的是，其股价自 6 月高点已跌超33%，财报发布当日仍逆势下挫。这种业绩与股价的强烈背离，本质是短期盈利兑现与长期增长预期的博弈，背后暗藏行业竞争、业务结构等多重隐忧。01财报亮点：多项指标创历史新高小米 Q3 财报 (11 月 18 日发布) 显示：营收...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119120315a4abcbfc&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119120315a4abcbfc&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2584910099","content_text":"2025 年 11 月 18 日，小米 Q3 财报交出多项创纪录答卷，营收、净利润等核心指标同比大幅增长，汽车业务更首现单季盈利。但诡异的是，其股价自 6 月高点已跌超33%，财报发布当日仍逆势下挫。这种业绩与股价的强烈背离，本质是短期盈利兑现与长期增长预期的博弈，背后暗藏行业竞争、业务结构等多重隐忧。01财报亮点：多项指标创历史新高小米 Q3 财报 (11 月 18 日发布) 显示：营收1131.21亿元，同比增长22.3%，连续4季度破千亿 ；经调整净利润113.11 亿元，同比增长80.9%，创历史新高；净利润122.57 亿元，同比增长129.5%；经营利润151.1 亿元，同比增长150.1%；汽车业务首次实现单季盈利，经营收益7 亿元，收入283 亿元(同比 + 199.2%)。02股价表现：与业绩背道而驰小米股价从 2025 年 6 月历史高点61.45 港元一路跌至11 月 18 日的40.78 港元，累计跌幅33.6%，创 7 个月新低 。即使 Q3 财报超预期，当日股价仍下跌2.81%。03背离原因：五大关键制约因素1、核心业务增长乏力手机业务：收入 475 亿元，同比下降 3.1%，毛利率下滑至 11.1%(连续 3 季度下滑)；IoT 业务：收入 261 亿元，环比暴跌 33%(二季度为 387 亿元)，远低于预期。2、成本压力持续攀升存储芯片等原材料价格上涨，导致每部手机利润减少 5-8 元，单季影响净利润 8-12 亿元；高端化战略尚未完全见效，品牌溢价能力不足。3、做空潮涌：机构集体唱空高盛报告称小米已成为“共识性做空目标”，做空头寸一周内增加 53%；多家国际投行下调目标价，担忧盈利可持续性。4、增长预期已被提前透支市场已提前消化 Q3 及 Q4 业绩利好 (小米 17 系列热销和前期订单释放)；投资者更关注长期增长持续性而非短期业绩。5、行业竞争加剧智能手机市场饱和，价格战白热化；电动汽车赛道竞争加剧，卢伟冰坦言 “2026 年汽车业务将面临挑战，毛利率可能不及今年”。04辩证看待：危中有机积极因素：汽车业务突破：首次盈利标志第二增长曲线正式启动，毛利率达 25.5%；盈利能力提升：集团整体净利率稳定在 9% 以上，经营效率提高；估值优势显现：当前股价对应 2025 年 PE 约 20 倍，低于科技巨头平均水平；高端化战略见效：小米 17 系列带动 ASP 提升，全球市占率达 15% 创新高。风险因素：手机业务增长瓶颈：出货量和毛利率双双承压，短期内难有根本好转；IoT 业务增长失速：大家电品类下滑拖累整体表现；汽车盈利持续性待验证：虽然 Q3 盈利，但单车成本仍高，规模化效应尚需时间。05投资启示：理性看待业绩与股价小米当前局面反映了股市的一个重要规律：股价反映的是预期而非历史。虽然 Q3 财报亮眼，但投资者更关注未来增长的可持续性。对投资者的建议：在质疑中寻找机遇：小米 Q3 财报与股价的背离并非个例，而是成长型企业常见的“业绩兑现 - 预期调整”周期。目前小米正处于传统业务转型与新业务突破的关键期，虽然面临挑战，但长期竞争力依然稳固。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":501861650473304,"gmtCreate":1763532936862,"gmtModify":1763533367111,"author":{"id":"3556608295771025","authorId":"3556608295771025","name":"大不列癫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ee27e339384e8a90da83ae81dcf843","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556608295771025","authorIdStr":"3556608295771025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"小米17那定位能卖的好？我等着真实销量数据暴雷。","listText":"小米17那定位能卖的好？我等着真实销量数据暴雷。","text":"小米17那定位能卖的好？我等着真实销量数据暴雷。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501861650473304","repostId":"2584910099","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
