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2021-11-12

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@Buy_Sell:🚀【11月11日】美通胀爆表！三大指数集体收跌，今天买点啥

2021-11-03

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-02

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-09-16

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2021-09-15

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2021-09-13

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2021-09-09

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2021-09-09

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2021-09-07

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2021-09-04

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2021-08-31

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2021-08-30

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2021-08-29

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This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote>

2021-08-28

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2021-08-27

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2021-08-26

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2021-08-26

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2021-08-24

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2021-08-23

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2021-08-21

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Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

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/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月11日，恒生指数开盘下跌140.03点，跌幅0.56%，报24856.11点；国企指数开盘下跌69.39点，跌幅0.78%，报8841.59点；红筹指数开盘下跌22.79点，跌幅0.61%，报3737.18点。 恒生科技指数跌1.08%，大型科技股普跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌近2%领跌蓝筹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 跌超1%。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a> 涨1.69%，多位持有人已收到恒大原定今日到宽限期的三笔债券利息，合计1.48亿美元。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00305\">$五菱汽车(00305)$</a> 涨3.62%，附属公司与欣旺达汽车电池签署合资合作意向书，拟共同投资组建涵盖新能源汽车动力电池系统。 美股市场 美东时间周三，三大指数集体收跌，纳指盘中一度跌超2%，美国通胀触及30年高点，加剧了市场对经济物价压力的担忧。 截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.66%，标普500指数跌0.82%，纳斯达克指数跌1.66%。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 涨逾4%。 热门中概股周三收盘涨跌不一，陆金所涨近12%，该公司此前公布财报显示三季度总收入159.24亿","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月11日，恒生指数开盘下跌140.03点，跌幅0.56%，报24856.11点；国企指数开盘下跌69.39点，跌幅0.78%，报8841.59点；红筹指数开盘下跌22.79点，跌幅0.61%，报3737.18点。 恒生科技指数跌1.08%，大型科技股普跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌近2%领跌蓝筹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 跌超1%。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a> 涨1.69%，多位持有人已收到恒大原定今日到宽限期的三笔债券利息，合计1.48亿美元。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00305\">$五菱汽车(00305)$</a> 涨3.62%，附属公司与欣旺达汽车电池签署合资合作意向书，拟共同投资组建涵盖新能源汽车动力电池系统。 美股市场 美东时间周三，三大指数集体收跌，纳指盘中一度跌超2%，美国通胀触及30年高点，加剧了市场对经济物价压力的担忧。 截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.66%，标普500指数跌0.82%，纳斯达克指数跌1.66%。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 涨逾4%。 热门中概股周三收盘涨跌不一，陆金所涨近12%，该公司此前公布财报显示三季度总收入159.24亿","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月11日，恒生指数开盘下跌140.03点，跌幅0.56%，报24856.11点；国企指数开盘下跌69.39点，跌幅0.78%，报8841.59点；红筹指数开盘下跌22.79点，跌幅0.61%，报3737.18点。 恒生科技指数跌1.08%，大型科技股普跌，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 跌近2%领跌蓝筹，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 跌超1%。 $中国恒大(03333)$ 涨1.69%，多位持有人已收到恒大原定今日到宽限期的三笔债券利息，合计1.48亿美元。 $五菱汽车(00305)$ 涨3.62%，附属公司与欣旺达汽车电池签署合资合作意向书，拟共同投资组建涵盖新能源汽车动力电池系统。 美股市场 美东时间周三，三大指数集体收跌，纳指盘中一度跌超2%，美国通胀触及30年高点，加剧了市场对经济物价压力的担忧。 截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.66%，标普500指数跌0.82%，纳斯达克指数跌1.66%。$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 涨逾4%。 热门中概股周三收盘涨跌不一，陆金所涨近12%，该公司此前公布财报显示三季度总收入159.24亿","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c224c9889536a14f83eca563ae0bb07","width":"666","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870834240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841218024,"gmtCreate":1635914090883,"gmtModify":1635914090960,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841218024","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843825759,"gmtCreate":1635818776431,"gmtModify":1635818776502,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843825759","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while 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09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129129956","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.Real estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologieshas been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company  merger. In a race to disrupt residential ","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying 业务是一场扩大规模的竞赛，而 Opendoor 正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有 SPAC 都持看跌态度，这使得 Opendoor 成为一笔最终可能带来巨大回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>Opendoor技术</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行力一直处于高水平。在扰乱全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor 的长期潜力可以为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上涨空间，但市场尚未欣赏 Opendoor 的成就；该股较高点下跌了 50% 以上。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor 可能是一个有吸引力的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1. Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房过程很慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这会产生大量的来回文书工作，并将流程平均拖延超过30天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字成交流程。然后该公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理和与传统成交相关的一些费用，如代理佣金。然后，Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并对交易收取高达5%的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到 Opendoor 凭借其 iBuying 概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供 iBuying 服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司正在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多的房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易的增加，其定价算法也会得到改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的可供出售的住房库存。该公司目前约有 3,300 套房屋待售，比 Zillow 多 53%，是 Offerpad 的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2.收入增长提前</h3>当公司通过PacMerger上市时，他们会公开展示自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即 2020 年 9 月，Opendoor 发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近发布的 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人 Eric Wu 在财报看涨期权上表示：“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过 2023 年的目标，比计划提前整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果 Opendoor 以目前的业务水平运营 12 个月，它将超过 2023 年预计的 98 亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果 Opendoor 已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到 2023 年它将处于什么位置？当然，房地产市场的下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱该公司的增长速度，但 Opendoor 正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC不受市场青睐……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注 Opendoor 通过 SPAC 合并加入公开市场的事实。对于以前的 SPAC 来说，经营业绩或收益几乎无关紧要；几个月来，股市一直在抛售几乎所有基于特殊目的收购公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“坏苹果”公司被发现存在欺诈行为感到害怕，而其他公司则严重错过了他们在上市前做出的预测。这些例子让相关人员感到焦虑，投资者对 SPAC 整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像 Opendoor 这样的公司继续夸大预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们接受 Eric Wu 对收入的评论，并假设 Opendoor 在 2022 年的销售额为 100 亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor 在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持当前的速度），那么该股目前的交易价格与销售额（P/S）比率仅为 1.0。这是一个便宜货的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手 Zillow Group 的市盈率超过 3，反映了 Opendoor 作为前 SPAC 的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，这是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-29 09:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying 业务是一场扩大规模的竞赛，而 Opendoor 正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有 SPAC 都持看跌态度，这使得 Opendoor 成为一笔最终可能带来巨大回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>Opendoor技术</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行力一直处于高水平。在扰乱全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor 的长期潜力可以为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上涨空间，但市场尚未欣赏 Opendoor 的成就；该股较高点下跌了 50% 以上。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor 可能是一个有吸引力的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1. Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房过程很慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这会产生大量的来回文书工作，并将流程平均拖延超过30天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字成交流程。然后该公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理和与传统成交相关的一些费用，如代理佣金。然后，Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并对交易收取高达5%的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到 Opendoor 凭借其 iBuying 概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供 iBuying 服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司正在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多的房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易的增加，其定价算法也会得到改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的可供出售的住房库存。该公司目前约有 3,300 套房屋待售，比 Zillow 多 53%，是 Offerpad 的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2.收入增长提前</h3>当公司通过PacMerger上市时，他们会公开展示自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即 2020 年 9 月，Opendoor 发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近发布的 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人 Eric Wu 在财报看涨期权上表示：“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过 2023 年的目标，比计划提前整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果 Opendoor 以目前的业务水平运营 12 个月，它将超过 2023 年预计的 98 亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果 Opendoor 已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到 2023 年它将处于什么位置？当然，房地产市场的下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱该公司的增长速度，但 Opendoor 正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC不受市场青睐……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注 Opendoor 通过 SPAC 合并加入公开市场的事实。对于以前的 SPAC 来说，经营业绩或收益几乎无关紧要；几个月来，股市一直在抛售几乎所有基于特殊目的收购公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“坏苹果”公司被发现存在欺诈行为感到害怕，而其他公司则严重错过了他们在上市前做出的预测。这些例子让相关人员感到焦虑，投资者对 SPAC 整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像 Opendoor 这样的公司继续夸大预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们接受 Eric Wu 对收入的评论，并假设 Opendoor 在 2022 年的销售额为 100 亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor 在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持当前的速度），那么该股目前的交易价格与销售额（P/S）比率仅为 1.0。这是一个便宜货的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手 Zillow Group 的市盈率超过 3，反映了 Opendoor 作为前 SPAC 的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，这是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OPEN":"Opendoor Technologies Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129129956","content_text":"Key Points\n\nThe iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.\nThe company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.\nThe market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.\n\n\nReal estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologies(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.\nDespite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.\n1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle\nThe traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.\nOpendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.\nAfter seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including Zillow Group and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.\nAccording to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.\n2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule\nWhen companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.\nFast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"\nIn other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.\n3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?\nInvestors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.\nInvestors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.\nBut if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.\nCompetitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.\nHere's the bottom line\nReal estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"Amazon\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is poised to be a big player in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OPEN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813158995,"gmtCreate":1630157140417,"gmtModify":1704956610608,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813158995","repostId":"2162707824","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819851108,"gmtCreate":1630057213404,"gmtModify":1704955293711,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819851108","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810653863,"gmtCreate":1629974207252,"gmtModify":1631891542466,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810653863","repostId":"1185636865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810650019,"gmtCreate":1629974054031,"gmtModify":1631891542476,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810650019","repostId":"1185636865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834048127,"gmtCreate":1629764127669,"gmtModify":1631891542489,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834048127","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835078545,"gmtCreate":1629682546787,"gmtModify":1631891542499,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835078545","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836730071,"gmtCreate":1629521033493,"gmtModify":1631891542515,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557771988371061","idStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836730071","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QCOM":"高通","ON":"安森美半导体","SNPS":"新思科技","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果","SSNLF":"三星电子","GOOG":"谷歌","CDNS":"铿腾电子","ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNPS":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":830903958,"gmtCreate":1628997146374,"gmtModify":1631893253183,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557771988371061","authorIdStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830903958","repostId":"1138705612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138705612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628995730,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138705612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138705612","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.This left ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li>  <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li>  <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&amp;D, marketing, and pricing.</li>  <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 最近的 CPU 和 GPU 产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD 的 EPYC 服务器芯片可与某些英特尔芯片媲美甚至更胜一筹，并帮助 AMD 获得了服务器 CPU 市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍然是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面长期保持着相对于AMD的优势。</li><li>英伟达在 GPU 技术方面领先于 AMD，并正在利用其 GPU 进入人工智能等邻近终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的罗兹巨像，是摩尔定律力量的丰碑。然而，该公司在 10 纳米工艺方面遇到了困难，最近宣布其 7 纳米工艺将推迟到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) 敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD 已经占据了 CPU 市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 现已连续七个季度实现两位数收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长 60%，高于上一季度预测的 50%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 还与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者的 GPU 技术正在抢走市场份额。NVDA 还成功凭借其 GPU 进入邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>了解英特尔还可以深入了解 AMD。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM的要求，即英特尔不会成为芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场占据双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是，两者都有一条与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机尤其基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像个人电脑一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，作为x86芯片的供应商，AMD还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD 与台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）合作，利用该制造商的 7 纳米工艺在工艺技术上超越了 INTC。再加上 AMD 开发新的创新芯片设计，这种一举两得的打击导致 INTC 失去了大量市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop&nbsp;market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5%&nbsp;market&nbsp;share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Q1末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU&nbsp;market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一家垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司主导着服务器市场，仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场60%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&amp;D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有巨额研发预算，并通过收购 Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius 和 Mobileye，正在扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应仅仅因为 7 优于 10 就声称英特尔的新 10 纳米芯片不如 7 纳米。虽然它曾经被用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被滥用到毫无用处的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，必须承认一些关切。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的逆风。另一方面，应该承认的是，随着移动设备和云计算的激增，INTC 的服务器处理器业务也取得了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在数据中心领域还面临着来自 AMD 的日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为 CPU 开发自己的基于 ARM 的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，INTC 占据了 x86 市场的最大份额。这在一定程度上要归功于英特尔领先的制造技术，以及 AMD 与不太出色的 GlobalFoundries 签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素发生了翻天覆地的变化：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电进行生产，英特尔面临反复的制造延迟。下面的两个图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD 的主要产品也是 CPU 和 GPU。AMD 的芯片专为 PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与 INTC 一样，AMD 的产品在很大程度上免受竞争影响，因为 PC 和服务器软件大多是为 x86 架构设计的。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的强劲增长在很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为 AMD 一直在稳步蚕食英特尔的 CPU 市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 专注于 CPU 和 GPU 半定制处理器应用，这使得它们在微软 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机中得到应用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在 PC 集成 GPU 方面，AMD 与 NVIDIA 大致持平，而 INTC 则以约 68% 的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：汤姆硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英伟达以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD横扫了剩下的市场。英伟达的独立 GPU 可以说优于 AMD（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应在这里寻求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 的 EPYC 服务器 CPU 产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但该公司最初依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代 EPYC 产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器 CPU 的利润率高于公司的其他产品，因此向该领域的扩张将有助于推动收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal&nbsp;to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD 达成收购现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 芯片领导者赛灵思 (XLNX) 的交易。FPGA可用于各种各样的应用。由于转向竞争的 FPGA 供应商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争供应商。因此，如果赛灵思交易成功，AMD 将获得广泛的护城河业务。交易完成后 18 个月内运营效率管理指南约为 3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购赛灵思将有助于增强 AMD 的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 同意以 350 亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立 GPU 领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）分立 GPU 领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，从图灵到安培。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也应用于许多高端个人电脑中，NVDA 在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有实力。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to&nbsp;enhance&nbsp;computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to&nbsp;autonomous&nbsp;vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正在与CPU合作，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达不断发展的优势。该公司在云计算领域崭露头角的另一个领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是 NVDA 最有可能的增长途径。为了巩固其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以 400 亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了 ARM Holdings (ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM 是全球最大的芯片设计许可商。它的芯片无处不在，可以在手机、智能电视和平板电脑中找到。使用ARM设计已经制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，1300万开发者使用ARM设备。从上下文来看，NVDA 有 200 万开发人员在其设备阵列上工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和theU.K.都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有“远期”字样的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致估计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用一张图表来提供这三家公司的 PEG 比率。由于分析师的输入会导致 PEG 比率出现相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我更希望读者能够获得多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的挂钩，Schwab只是将其指标列为挂钩比率，而Yahoo!财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显 NVDA 被高估了。同样有趣的是，在当前的市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计中，AMD 的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>把我算作一个非常重视股票挂钩比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD 是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，每个消息来源的分析师都计算出 AMD 的 PEG 比率好于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要曲解我的发现。虽然 INTC 在许多方面的估值较低，但当考虑其他因素时，我对 AMD 的总体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方法来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价目前交易价格为 202.95 美元。33 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 186.49 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 17 位分析师的平均目标价为 210.53 美元，比该股当前价格高出约 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 股价目前交易价格为 107.58 美元。28 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 108.56 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 11 位分析师的平均目标价为 117.27 美元，比当前股价高出约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为 54.05 美元。34 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 59.86 美元。最新收益报告发布后，对该股进行评级的 16 位分析师的平均目标价为 58.97 美元，比当前股价溢价 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，距离 NVDA 发布季度收益以及 INTC 和 AMD 最近发布季度收益已经近三个月了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=平局AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了增长率的数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计 INTC 在增长方面的表现将不如 NVDA 和 AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于 NVIDIA，有时甚至领先于 NVIDIA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，可以说，每一个都是高利润的，这三个并置将导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供一个细分股息指标的比较，但 AMD 不支付股息，而 NVDA 的收益率也很低。INTC 目前的收益率约为 2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达上季度末拥有 126.7 亿美元现金和 59.6 亿美元现金。如果 ARM 收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使 400 亿美元收购价格中的 210 亿美元将有库存。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 重组了债务，降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD 拥有约 38 亿美元现金和 3.13 亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有雄厚的财务状况。权衡 NVDA 和 AMD 可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级为同等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have&nbsp;compared&nbsp;the R&amp;D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次对企业的研发预算进行针锋相对的对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&amp;D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔研发投入超过135亿美元，NVDA花费近28.3亿美元，AMD研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&amp;D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，这种弱点被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。值得注意的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了代工业务。然而，它是这里明显的赢家，而AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&amp;D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我还应该补充一点，NVDA 正在蚕食 AMD 在独立 GPU 市场的份额，我相信这一趋势还会继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：哪只芯片股最好？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于 ARM 处理器比 x86 芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA 可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能会给 INTC 带来阻力，而给 NVDA 带来利好。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its&nbsp;planned&nbsp;foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划中的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个需要权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场与INTC平起平坐。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 正在将独立 GPU 市场的份额输给 NVDA。NVDA 在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 和 NVDA 被视为增长机器，但我们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上一季度增长了 47%。Mobileye 的增长也激增，收入增长了 124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，只是英特尔185亿美元总收入的一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长的领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但请注意，标题指的是 “芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和未来增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于当前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级是基于股票的当前估值。我感谢公司的模范领导，并相信该股的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我还将 INTC 评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将为长期投资者提供良好的服务，但我现在相信其复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且还有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将 AMD 评级为买入。这是基于本文中概述的当前估值和增长率。我还要补充一点，我认为随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD 很可能会蚕食市场份额，这也支撑了这些指标。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA&nbsp;contributor&nbsp;Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步了解AMD和INTC投资的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li>  <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li>  <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&amp;D, marketing, and pricing.</li>  <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 最近的 CPU 和 GPU 产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD 的 EPYC 服务器芯片可与某些英特尔芯片媲美甚至更胜一筹，并帮助 AMD 获得了服务器 CPU 市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍然是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面长期保持着相对于AMD的优势。</li><li>英伟达在 GPU 技术方面领先于 AMD，并正在利用其 GPU 进入人工智能等邻近终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的罗兹巨像，是摩尔定律力量的丰碑。然而，该公司在 10 纳米工艺方面遇到了困难，最近宣布其 7 纳米工艺将推迟到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) 敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD 已经占据了 CPU 市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 现已连续七个季度实现两位数收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长 60%，高于上一季度预测的 50%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 还与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者的 GPU 技术正在抢走市场份额。NVDA 还成功凭借其 GPU 进入邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>了解英特尔还可以深入了解 AMD。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM的要求，即英特尔不会成为芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场占据双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是，两者都有一条与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机尤其基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像个人电脑一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，作为x86芯片的供应商，AMD还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD 与台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）合作，利用该制造商的 7 纳米工艺在工艺技术上超越了 INTC。再加上 AMD 开发新的创新芯片设计，这种一举两得的打击导致 INTC 失去了大量市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop&nbsp;market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5%&nbsp;market&nbsp;share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Q1末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU&nbsp;market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一家垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司主导着服务器市场，仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场60%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&amp;D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有巨额研发预算，并通过收购 Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius 和 Mobileye，正在扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应仅仅因为 7 优于 10 就声称英特尔的新 10 纳米芯片不如 7 纳米。虽然它曾经被用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被滥用到毫无用处的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，必须承认一些关切。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的逆风。另一方面，应该承认的是，随着移动设备和云计算的激增，INTC 的服务器处理器业务也取得了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在数据中心领域还面临着来自 AMD 的日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为 CPU 开发自己的基于 ARM 的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，INTC 占据了 x86 市场的最大份额。这在一定程度上要归功于英特尔领先的制造技术，以及 AMD 与不太出色的 GlobalFoundries 签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素发生了翻天覆地的变化：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电进行生产，英特尔面临反复的制造延迟。下面的两个图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD 的主要产品也是 CPU 和 GPU。AMD 的芯片专为 PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与 INTC 一样，AMD 的产品在很大程度上免受竞争影响，因为 PC 和服务器软件大多是为 x86 架构设计的。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的强劲增长在很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为 AMD 一直在稳步蚕食英特尔的 CPU 市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 专注于 CPU 和 GPU 半定制处理器应用，这使得它们在微软 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机中得到应用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在 PC 集成 GPU 方面，AMD 与 NVIDIA 大致持平，而 INTC 则以约 68% 的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：汤姆硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英伟达以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD横扫了剩下的市场。英伟达的独立 GPU 可以说优于 AMD（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应在这里寻求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 的 EPYC 服务器 CPU 产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但该公司最初依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代 EPYC 产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器 CPU 的利润率高于公司的其他产品，因此向该领域的扩张将有助于推动收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal&nbsp;to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD 达成收购现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 芯片领导者赛灵思 (XLNX) 的交易。FPGA可用于各种各样的应用。由于转向竞争的 FPGA 供应商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争供应商。因此，如果赛灵思交易成功，AMD 将获得广泛的护城河业务。交易完成后 18 个月内运营效率管理指南约为 3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购赛灵思将有助于增强 AMD 的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 同意以 350 亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立 GPU 领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）分立 GPU 领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，从图灵到安培。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也应用于许多高端个人电脑中，NVDA 在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有实力。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to&nbsp;enhance&nbsp;computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to&nbsp;autonomous&nbsp;vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正在与CPU合作，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达不断发展的优势。该公司在云计算领域崭露头角的另一个领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是 NVDA 最有可能的增长途径。为了巩固其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以 400 亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了 ARM Holdings (ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM 是全球最大的芯片设计许可商。它的芯片无处不在，可以在手机、智能电视和平板电脑中找到。使用ARM设计已经制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，1300万开发者使用ARM设备。从上下文来看，NVDA 有 200 万开发人员在其设备阵列上工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和theU.K.都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有“远期”字样的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致估计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用一张图表来提供这三家公司的 PEG 比率。由于分析师的输入会导致 PEG 比率出现相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我更希望读者能够获得多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的挂钩，Schwab只是将其指标列为挂钩比率，而Yahoo!财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显 NVDA 被高估了。同样有趣的是，在当前的市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计中，AMD 的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>把我算作一个非常重视股票挂钩比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD 是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，每个消息来源的分析师都计算出 AMD 的 PEG 比率好于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要曲解我的发现。虽然 INTC 在许多方面的估值较低，但当考虑其他因素时，我对 AMD 的总体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方法来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价目前交易价格为 202.95 美元。33 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 186.49 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 17 位分析师的平均目标价为 210.53 美元，比该股当前价格高出约 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 股价目前交易价格为 107.58 美元。28 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 108.56 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 11 位分析师的平均目标价为 117.27 美元，比当前股价高出约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为 54.05 美元。34 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 59.86 美元。最新收益报告发布后，对该股进行评级的 16 位分析师的平均目标价为 58.97 美元，比当前股价溢价 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，距离 NVDA 发布季度收益以及 INTC 和 AMD 最近发布季度收益已经近三个月了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=平局AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了增长率的数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计 INTC 在增长方面的表现将不如 NVDA 和 AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于 NVIDIA，有时甚至领先于 NVIDIA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，可以说，每一个都是高利润的，这三个并置将导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供一个细分股息指标的比较，但 AMD 不支付股息，而 NVDA 的收益率也很低。INTC 目前的收益率约为 2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达上季度末拥有 126.7 亿美元现金和 59.6 亿美元现金。如果 ARM 收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使 400 亿美元收购价格中的 210 亿美元将有库存。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 重组了债务，降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD 拥有约 38 亿美元现金和 3.13 亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有雄厚的财务状况。权衡 NVDA 和 AMD 可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级为同等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have&nbsp;compared&nbsp;the R&amp;D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次对企业的研发预算进行针锋相对的对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&amp;D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔研发投入超过135亿美元，NVDA花费近28.3亿美元，AMD研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&amp;D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，这种弱点被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。值得注意的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了代工业务。然而，它是这里明显的赢家，而AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&amp;D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我还应该补充一点，NVDA 正在蚕食 AMD 在独立 GPU 市场的份额，我相信这一趋势还会继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：哪只芯片股最好？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于 ARM 处理器比 x86 芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA 可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能会给 INTC 带来阻力，而给 NVDA 带来利好。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its&nbsp;planned&nbsp;foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划中的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个需要权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场与INTC平起平坐。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 正在将独立 GPU 市场的份额输给 NVDA。NVDA 在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 和 NVDA 被视为增长机器，但我们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上一季度增长了 47%。Mobileye 的增长也激增，收入增长了 124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，只是英特尔185亿美元总收入的一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长的领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但请注意，标题指的是 “芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和未来增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于当前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级是基于股票的当前估值。我感谢公司的模范领导，并相信该股的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我还将 INTC 评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将为长期投资者提供良好的服务，但我现在相信其复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且还有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将 AMD 评级为买入。这是基于本文中概述的当前估值和增长率。我还要补充一点，我认为随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD 很可能会蚕食市场份额，这也支撑了这些指标。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA&nbsp;contributor&nbsp;Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步了解AMD和INTC投资的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad74e350b9b09d45929989f896aaa9d","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138705612","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.\nAMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.\nEven so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.\nNvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.\n\nAndy/iStock via Getty Images\nIntel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.\nThis left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.\nAMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.\nHowever, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.\nThe Ins And Outs of Intel\nAn understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.\nConsequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.\nGaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.\nUntil fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.\nAt the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.\nDespite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.\nThe company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.\nInvestors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.\nHowever, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.\nIntel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.\nAn Overview of AMD\nIn years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.\nHowever, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nLike Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.\nAMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.\nIn regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.\nSource:tom'sHARDWARE\nHowever, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.\nAlthough AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.\nLate last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.\nThe Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.\nAMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.\nA Survey of NVIDIA\nNVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.\nThe chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.\nSource:AMD Investor Presentation\nThe firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.\nGPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud\nAI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.\nARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.\nPerhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.\nUnfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.\nHead-To-Head Comparisons\nValuation Metrics\nThe following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author\nNext, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.\nChart by author\nNote that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.\nPerusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.\nCount me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.\nDo not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.\n=Advantage AMD\nAnalysts’ Price Targets\nNVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.\nAMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.\nIntel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.\nInvestors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.\n=Tie AMD/INTC\nGrowth Rates\nThe next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author\nWhile investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.\nAdvanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.\n=Advantage AMD\nI considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.\nI often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.\nDebt Metrics\nNVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.\nAMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.\nIntel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.\nAll three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.\nR&D Budgets\nThis is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.\nLast fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.\nAMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.\nI should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.\n=Advantage INTC\nBottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?\nTo arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.\nBecause ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.\nThe degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.\nA development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.\nOn the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.\nWhile AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.\nHowever, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.\nWith that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.\nI also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.\nI rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.\nFor additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810650019,"gmtCreate":1629974054031,"gmtModify":1631891542476,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557771988371061","authorIdStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810650019","repostId":"1185636865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836730071,"gmtCreate":1629521033493,"gmtModify":1631891542515,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557771988371061","authorIdStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836730071","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QCOM":"高通","ON":"安森美半导体","SNPS":"新思科技","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果","SSNLF":"三星电子","GOOG":"谷歌","CDNS":"铿腾电子","ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNPS":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831255920,"gmtCreate":1629331661260,"gmtModify":1631891542538,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557771988371061","authorIdStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831255920","repostId":"1161930198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161930198","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629331022,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161930198?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将 2021 年股市反弹与 1987 年崩盘前的夏天进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161930198","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee\n'Wall Street' in the pre-working from hom","content":"<p>‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee</p><p><blockquote>力量往往会产生力量，但这并不能保证</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3b6031d3c2b32047dfe87035791cad\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"708\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将 2021 年的股市攀升与 1987 年的模式相提并论，1987 年看似无情的反弹被 10 月份的 “黑色星期一 ”崩盘彻底摧毁，但两者之间存在一些重要差异。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实感觉合适，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”</p><p><blockquote>“从插电式对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于 1987 年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德-福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote></p><p> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&amp;P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>但他说，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至 1987 年 8 月 17 日，大盘股基准指数上涨了 36%，而 2021 年同期仅上涨了 18%。</blockquote></p><p> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&amp;P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.</p><p><blockquote>至于前两年，1985 年和 1986 年标普500的总回报率分别为 31% 和 18%，与 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率完全相同，科拉斯承认这有点 “怪异”。不过，他坚持认为，2021 年的集会与 1987 年的集会 “相形见绌”。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were&nbsp;mostly lower&nbsp;on Wednesday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.</p><p><blockquote>周三股市大多走低，一天前，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均打破了连续五个交易日的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&amp;P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group 的分析师本周指出，标普500有望创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五个，也是 2021 年的第 49 个。这使得该指数今年有望创下 78 个收盘高点，超越 1995 年创下的 77 个收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&amp;P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.</p><p><blockquote>Bespoke 分析师提醒说，这还不是板上钉钉的事，他们指出，即使回调 5%，也可能侵蚀保持破纪录速度的能力。他们指出，自 1950 年以来，截至 8 月 16 日，标普500有五年创下了 40 多个历史新高，虽然 1995 年和 1964 年都是这些年中的佼佼者，但 1987 年、1997 年和 1998 年等年份在这一年中的这个时候也创下了 40 多个历史新高，而且没有一个年末的历史新高超过 50 个。</blockquote></p><p> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收盘高点对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，它大多是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括 1987 年（见下表）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>定制投资组</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，标普500今年迄今为止的收益与表格中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们写道：”展望未来，从 8 月 16 日收盘到年底，该指数的年终表现中位数上涨了 7.7%，五分之四的正回报率是 1950 年以来所有年份的年终平均表现的两倍多，并指出 “唯一的例外是 1987 年，那是一次惊人的经历”。</blockquote></p><p> So what should investors make of it all?</p><p><blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote></p><p> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”</p><p><blockquote>定制分析师指出，通常的注意事项是适用的--没有任何保证，过去的表现也不能代表未来的结果--但数据确实强调了 “市场的实力往往会催生实力 ”的观察。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将 2021 年股市反弹与 1987 年崩盘前的夏天进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将 2021 年股市反弹与 1987 年崩盘前的夏天进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 07:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee</p><p><blockquote>力量往往会产生力量，但这并不能保证</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3b6031d3c2b32047dfe87035791cad\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"708\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将 2021 年的股市攀升与 1987 年的模式相提并论，1987 年看似无情的反弹被 10 月份的 “黑色星期一 ”崩盘彻底摧毁，但两者之间存在一些重要差异。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实感觉合适，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”</p><p><blockquote>“从插电式对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于 1987 年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德-福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote></p><p> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&amp;P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>但他说，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至 1987 年 8 月 17 日，大盘股基准指数上涨了 36%，而 2021 年同期仅上涨了 18%。</blockquote></p><p> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&amp;P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.</p><p><blockquote>至于前两年，1985 年和 1986 年标普500的总回报率分别为 31% 和 18%，与 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率完全相同，科拉斯承认这有点 “怪异”。不过，他坚持认为，2021 年的集会与 1987 年的集会 “相形见绌”。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were&nbsp;mostly lower&nbsp;on Wednesday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.</p><p><blockquote>周三股市大多走低，一天前，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均打破了连续五个交易日的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&amp;P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group 的分析师本周指出，标普500有望创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五个，也是 2021 年的第 49 个。这使得该指数今年有望创下 78 个收盘高点，超越 1995 年创下的 77 个收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&amp;P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.</p><p><blockquote>Bespoke 分析师提醒说，这还不是板上钉钉的事，他们指出，即使回调 5%，也可能侵蚀保持破纪录速度的能力。他们指出，自 1950 年以来，截至 8 月 16 日，标普500有五年创下了 40 多个历史新高，虽然 1995 年和 1964 年都是这些年中的佼佼者，但 1987 年、1997 年和 1998 年等年份在这一年中的这个时候也创下了 40 多个历史新高，而且没有一个年末的历史新高超过 50 个。</blockquote></p><p> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收盘高点对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，它大多是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括 1987 年（见下表）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>定制投资组</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，标普500今年迄今为止的收益与表格中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们写道：”展望未来，从 8 月 16 日收盘到年底，该指数的年终表现中位数上涨了 7.7%，五分之四的正回报率是 1950 年以来所有年份的年终平均表现的两倍多，并指出 “唯一的例外是 1987 年，那是一次惊人的经历”。</blockquote></p><p> So what should investors make of it all?</p><p><blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote></p><p> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”</p><p><blockquote>定制分析师指出，通常的注意事项是适用的--没有任何保证，过去的表现也不能代表未来的结果--但数据确实强调了 “市场的实力往往会催生实力 ”的观察。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161930198","content_text":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee\n'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION\nSome investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.\nGranted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.\n“Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”\nBut the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.\nAs for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.\nStocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.\nMeanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.\nIt’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.\nBut more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).\nBESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP\nThe S&P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.\n“Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”\nSo what should investors make of it all?\nThe Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880337603,"gmtCreate":1631018808102,"gmtModify":1631889116859,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557771988371061","authorIdStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880337603","repostId":"1169993498","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813214434,"gmtCreate":1630204760228,"gmtModify":1704956992188,"author":{"id":"3557771988371061","authorId":"3557771988371061","name":"CZZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ceb88cfbcdec3fd58e2b516b00eaa5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557771988371061","authorIdStr":"3557771988371061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813214434","repostId":"1129129956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129129956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630201285,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129129956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-29 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129129956","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.Real estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologieshas been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company  merger. In a race to disrupt residential ","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying 业务是一场扩大规模的竞赛，而 Opendoor 正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有 SPAC 都持看跌态度，这使得 Opendoor 成为一笔最终可能带来巨大回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>Opendoor技术</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行力一直处于高水平。在扰乱全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor 的长期潜力可以为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上涨空间，但市场尚未欣赏 Opendoor 的成就；该股较高点下跌了 50% 以上。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor 可能是一个有吸引力的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1. Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房过程很慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这会产生大量的来回文书工作，并将流程平均拖延超过30天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字成交流程。然后该公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理和与传统成交相关的一些费用，如代理佣金。然后，Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并对交易收取高达5%的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到 Opendoor 凭借其 iBuying 概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供 iBuying 服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司正在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多的房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易的增加，其定价算法也会得到改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的可供出售的住房库存。该公司目前约有 3,300 套房屋待售，比 Zillow 多 53%，是 Offerpad 的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2.收入增长提前</h3>当公司通过PacMerger上市时，他们会公开展示自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即 2020 年 9 月，Opendoor 发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近发布的 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人 Eric Wu 在财报看涨期权上表示：“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过 2023 年的目标，比计划提前整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果 Opendoor 以目前的业务水平运营 12 个月，它将超过 2023 年预计的 98 亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果 Opendoor 已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到 2023 年它将处于什么位置？当然，房地产市场的下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱该公司的增长速度，但 Opendoor 正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC不受市场青睐……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注 Opendoor 通过 SPAC 合并加入公开市场的事实。对于以前的 SPAC 来说，经营业绩或收益几乎无关紧要；几个月来，股市一直在抛售几乎所有基于特殊目的收购公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“坏苹果”公司被发现存在欺诈行为感到害怕，而其他公司则严重错过了他们在上市前做出的预测。这些例子让相关人员感到焦虑，投资者对 SPAC 整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像 Opendoor 这样的公司继续夸大预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们接受 Eric Wu 对收入的评论，并假设 Opendoor 在 2022 年的销售额为 100 亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor 在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持当前的速度），那么该股目前的交易价格与销售额（P/S）比率仅为 1.0。这是一个便宜货的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手 Zillow Group 的市盈率超过 3，反映了 Opendoor 作为前 SPAC 的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，这是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天可能会让你致富</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-29 09:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying 业务是一场扩大规模的竞赛，而 Opendoor 正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有 SPAC 都持看跌态度，这使得 Opendoor 成为一笔最终可能带来巨大回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>Opendoor技术</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行力一直处于高水平。在扰乱全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor 的长期潜力可以为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上涨空间，但市场尚未欣赏 Opendoor 的成就；该股较高点下跌了 50% 以上。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor 可能是一个有吸引力的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1. Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房过程很慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这会产生大量的来回文书工作，并将流程平均拖延超过30天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字成交流程。然后该公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理和与传统成交相关的一些费用，如代理佣金。然后，Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并对交易收取高达5%的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到 Opendoor 凭借其 iBuying 概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供 iBuying 服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司正在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多的房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易的增加，其定价算法也会得到改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的可供出售的住房库存。该公司目前约有 3,300 套房屋待售，比 Zillow 多 53%，是 Offerpad 的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2.收入增长提前</h3>当公司通过PacMerger上市时，他们会公开展示自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即 2020 年 9 月，Opendoor 发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近发布的 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人 Eric Wu 在财报看涨期权上表示：“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过 2023 年的目标，比计划提前整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果 Opendoor 以目前的业务水平运营 12 个月，它将超过 2023 年预计的 98 亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果 Opendoor 已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到 2023 年它将处于什么位置？当然，房地产市场的下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱该公司的增长速度，但 Opendoor 正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC不受市场青睐……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注 Opendoor 通过 SPAC 合并加入公开市场的事实。对于以前的 SPAC 来说，经营业绩或收益几乎无关紧要；几个月来，股市一直在抛售几乎所有基于特殊目的收购公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“坏苹果”公司被发现存在欺诈行为感到害怕，而其他公司则严重错过了他们在上市前做出的预测。这些例子让相关人员感到焦虑，投资者对 SPAC 整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像 Opendoor 这样的公司继续夸大预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们接受 Eric Wu 对收入的评论，并假设 Opendoor 在 2022 年的销售额为 100 亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor 在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持当前的速度），那么该股目前的交易价格与销售额（P/S）比率仅为 1.0。这是一个便宜货的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手 Zillow Group 的市盈率超过 3，反映了 Opendoor 作为前 SPAC 的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，这是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OPEN":"Opendoor Technologies Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129129956","content_text":"Key Points\n\nThe iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.\nThe company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.\nThe market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.\n\n\nReal estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologies(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.\nDespite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.\n1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle\nThe traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.\nOpendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.\nAfter seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including Zillow Group and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.\nAccording to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.\n2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule\nWhen companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.\nFast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"\nIn other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.\n3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?\nInvestors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.\nInvestors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.\nBut if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.\nCompetitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.\nHere's the bottom line\nReal estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. 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