Huat1333的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Huat1333

Huat1333

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

621关注

43粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-09-13

Musical chairs .....again.....[DOGE] [捂嘴] [捂嘴]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

So will resume our climbing after this ....relievee...[握手] [握手] [握手]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-16

Wow....[强] [强] [强]

fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV股价早盘再飙升3%</blockquote>

2021-06-12

So....what next ....still bullish ? Pls like n comments ..tks [握手]

Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——而且选择有限</blockquote>

2021-06-12

[嘘] [嘘] [嘘] [嘘] [生病]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-31

Supports [smile] [smile] [smile]

Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>

2021-10-18

Supports [强] [强] [强] [强]

Tesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-10-13

Likes ...

Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>

2021-10-08

Wow....[强] [强] [强]

September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>

2021-09-27

Supports [强] [强]

Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3559014783889591","uuid":"3559014783889591","gmtCreate":1596164353301,"gmtModify":1613458720454,"name":"Huat1333","pinyin":"huat1333","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":43,"headSize":621,"tweetSize":185,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.04.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.23%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.58%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":692264964,"gmtCreate":1640998925259,"gmtModify":1640998925755,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully...... Patience needed&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Hopefully...... Patience needed&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","text":"Hopefully...... Patience needed [smile] [smile] [smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692264964","repostId":"2195441245","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692809078,"gmtCreate":1640902773400,"gmtModify":1640902773904,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Supports&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Supports&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","text":"Supports [smile] [smile] [smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692809078","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696108162,"gmtCreate":1640645230967,"gmtModify":1640645231441,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Supports[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;","listText":"Supports[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;","text":"Supports[Like] [Like] [Like]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696108162","repostId":"1114062676","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696101329,"gmtCreate":1640644954466,"gmtModify":1640644954897,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Congrats&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;","listText":"Congrats&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;","text":"Congrats [Like] [Like] [Like]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696101329","repostId":"1157544247","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157544247","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640617439,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157544247?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor stocks gained in morning trading<blockquote>半导体股早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157544247","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Semiconductor stocks gained in morning trading.AMD,Nvidia,ON Semiconductor,STMicroelectronics,Marvel","content":"<p>Semiconductor stocks gained in morning trading.AMD,Nvidia,ON&nbsp;Semiconductor,STMicroelectronics,Marvell,GlobalFoundries,TSMC,Xilinx&nbsp;and&nbsp;Texas Instruments&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>半导体股早盘上涨。AMD、英伟达、安森美半导体、意法半导体、Marvell、格芯、台积电、赛灵思和德州仪器上涨1%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b10f5fe6c87b9b9ac7276e650bdab5\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor stocks gained in morning trading<blockquote>半导体股早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks gained in morning trading<blockquote>半导体股早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-27 23:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductor stocks gained in morning trading.AMD,Nvidia,ON&nbsp;Semiconductor,STMicroelectronics,Marvell,GlobalFoundries,TSMC,Xilinx&nbsp;and&nbsp;Texas Instruments&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>半导体股早盘上涨。AMD、英伟达、安森美半导体、意法半导体、Marvell、格芯、台积电、赛灵思和德州仪器上涨1%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b10f5fe6c87b9b9ac7276e650bdab5\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","ON":"安森美半导体","NVDA":"英伟达","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","TSM":"台积电","STM":"意法半导体","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","TXN":"德州仪器"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157544247","content_text":"Semiconductor stocks gained in morning trading.AMD,Nvidia,ON Semiconductor,STMicroelectronics,Marvell,GlobalFoundries,TSMC,Xilinx and Texas Instruments climbed between 1% and 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"XLNX":0.9,"GFS":0.9,"STM":0.9,"ON":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696971840,"gmtCreate":1640611549390,"gmtModify":1640611549884,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Year eand dressing ....[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Year eand dressing ....[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","text":"Year eand dressing ....[smile] [smile] [smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696971840","repostId":"1154609715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154609715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640600232,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154609715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stock Futures Muted After Christmas Holiday<blockquote>圣诞假期后美国股指期货表现低迷</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154609715","media":"Wall Street Journal","summary":"U.S. stock futures were muted, with little news driving markets after the Christmas holiday.\nFutures","content":"<p>U.S. stock futures were muted, with little news driving markets after the Christmas holiday.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货表现低迷，圣诞假期后几乎没有消息推动市场。</blockquote></p><p> Futures for the S&amp;P 500 were flat Monday. The index hit its&nbsp;68th record close of 2021&nbsp;Thursday. U.S. markets were closed Friday for the holiday. Contracts for the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 edged up less than 0.1% Monday, and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500期货周一持平。该指数周四创下2021年第68个收盘纪录。美国市场周五因假期休市。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数合约周一小幅上涨不到0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are braced for higher volatility over the holiday season. Concerns over&nbsp;the rapid spread of the Omicron variant&nbsp;of Covid-19 and the economic impact of measures countries may take to stem its spread have weighed on markets in recent weeks. Some investors expect that will be&nbsp;mitigated by vaccines and the rollout of booster shots&nbsp;in some nations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者准备迎接假期期间更高的波动性。最近几周，对Covid-19奥密克戎变种迅速传播以及各国可能采取的遏制其传播措施的经济影响的担忧令市场承压。一些投资者预计，疫苗和一些国家推出加强注射将缓解这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> “Everything seems to be serious but manageable. Anything that changes that, this could probably make a big impact,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>百达资产管理公司首席策略师卢卡·保利尼表示：“一切似乎都很严重，但都是可控的。任何改变这一点的事情都可能产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Market moves can be amplified during the holiday season due to a lack of liquidity, or how readily buyers and sellers can find each other. With many traders off, prices people are willing to buy and sell at may be higher or lower because there are fewer counterparties.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏流动性，或者买家和卖家很容易找到彼此，市场波动在假期期间可能会被放大。由于许多交易者关闭，人们愿意买卖的价格可能会更高或更低，因为交易对手更少。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in kind of this Christmas trading range, but low liquidity makes any potential shock bigger,” Mr. Paolini added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于圣诞节交易区间，但低流动性会使任何潜在的冲击变得更大，”保利尼先生补充道。</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.481% from 1.492% Thursday. Yields and prices move inversely.</p><p><blockquote>在债券市场，基准10年期国债收益率从周四的1.492%降至1.481%。收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 edged down 0.2%. Markets in the U.K. were closed.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛大陆斯托克欧洲600指数小幅下跌0.2%。英国市场休市。</blockquote></p><p> In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite closed almost 0.1% lower. South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 each declined 0.4%. Markets in Hong Kong and Australia were closed.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，中国上证综指收盘下跌近0.1%。韩国综合指数和日本日经225指数均下跌0.4%。香港和澳大利亚市场休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stock Futures Muted After Christmas Holiday<blockquote>圣诞假期后美国股指期货表现低迷</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stock Futures Muted After Christmas Holiday<blockquote>圣诞假期后美国股指期货表现低迷</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 18:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock futures were muted, with little news driving markets after the Christmas holiday.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货表现低迷，圣诞假期后几乎没有消息推动市场。</blockquote></p><p> Futures for the S&amp;P 500 were flat Monday. The index hit its&nbsp;68th record close of 2021&nbsp;Thursday. U.S. markets were closed Friday for the holiday. Contracts for the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 edged up less than 0.1% Monday, and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500期货周一持平。该指数周四创下2021年第68个收盘纪录。美国市场周五因假期休市。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数合约周一小幅上涨不到0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are braced for higher volatility over the holiday season. Concerns over&nbsp;the rapid spread of the Omicron variant&nbsp;of Covid-19 and the economic impact of measures countries may take to stem its spread have weighed on markets in recent weeks. Some investors expect that will be&nbsp;mitigated by vaccines and the rollout of booster shots&nbsp;in some nations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者准备迎接假期期间更高的波动性。最近几周，对Covid-19奥密克戎变种迅速传播以及各国可能采取的遏制其传播措施的经济影响的担忧令市场承压。一些投资者预计，疫苗和一些国家推出加强注射将缓解这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> “Everything seems to be serious but manageable. Anything that changes that, this could probably make a big impact,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>百达资产管理公司首席策略师卢卡·保利尼表示：“一切似乎都很严重，但都是可控的。任何改变这一点的事情都可能产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Market moves can be amplified during the holiday season due to a lack of liquidity, or how readily buyers and sellers can find each other. With many traders off, prices people are willing to buy and sell at may be higher or lower because there are fewer counterparties.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏流动性，或者买家和卖家很容易找到彼此，市场波动在假期期间可能会被放大。由于许多交易者关闭，人们愿意买卖的价格可能会更高或更低，因为交易对手更少。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in kind of this Christmas trading range, but low liquidity makes any potential shock bigger,” Mr. Paolini added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于圣诞节交易区间，但低流动性会使任何潜在的冲击变得更大，”保利尼先生补充道。</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.481% from 1.492% Thursday. Yields and prices move inversely.</p><p><blockquote>在债券市场，基准10年期国债收益率从周四的1.492%降至1.481%。收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 edged down 0.2%. Markets in the U.K. were closed.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛大陆斯托克欧洲600指数小幅下跌0.2%。英国市场休市。</blockquote></p><p> In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite closed almost 0.1% lower. South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 each declined 0.4%. Markets in Hong Kong and Australia were closed.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，中国上证综指收盘下跌近0.1%。韩国综合指数和日本日经225指数均下跌0.4%。香港和澳大利亚市场休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-12-27-2021-11640595239?mod=markets_lead_pos2\">Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-12-27-2021-11640595239?mod=markets_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154609715","content_text":"U.S. stock futures were muted, with little news driving markets after the Christmas holiday.\nFutures for the S&P 500 were flat Monday. The index hit its 68th record close of 2021 Thursday. U.S. markets were closed Friday for the holiday. Contracts for the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 edged up less than 0.1% Monday, and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 0.1%.\nInvestors are braced for higher volatility over the holiday season. Concerns over the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and the economic impact of measures countries may take to stem its spread have weighed on markets in recent weeks. Some investors expect that will be mitigated by vaccines and the rollout of booster shots in some nations.\n“Everything seems to be serious but manageable. Anything that changes that, this could probably make a big impact,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.\nMarket moves can be amplified during the holiday season due to a lack of liquidity, or how readily buyers and sellers can find each other. With many traders off, prices people are willing to buy and sell at may be higher or lower because there are fewer counterparties.\n“We are in kind of this Christmas trading range, but low liquidity makes any potential shock bigger,” Mr. Paolini added.\nIn bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.481% from 1.492% Thursday. Yields and prices move inversely.\nOverseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 edged down 0.2%. Markets in the U.K. were closed.\nIn Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite closed almost 0.1% lower. South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 each declined 0.4%. Markets in Hong Kong and Australia were closed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859869310,"gmtCreate":1634687557263,"gmtModify":1634687557987,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Yes....[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859869310","repostId":"2176710436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859164143,"gmtCreate":1634680148912,"gmtModify":1634680363518,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It times to rally ......[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"It times to rally ......[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"It times to rally ......[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859164143","repostId":"1195848012","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195848012","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634605172,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195848012?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 08:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Buy BlackBerry Stock Now<blockquote>立即购买黑莓股票的3个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195848012","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Despite Wall Street’s overall bearishness, there are a few good reasons to be optimistic about Black","content":"<p>Despite Wall Street’s overall bearishness, there are a few good reasons to be optimistic about BlackBerry stock. Wall Street Memes lists three of them.</p><p><blockquote>尽管华尔街整体看跌，但有一些充分的理由对黑莓股票持乐观态度。华尔街迷因列出了其中三个。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry stock&nbsp;has been trading sideways since mid-July. Shares of the Canadian cybersecurity company are among retail investors’ favorites. But beyond the stock’s meme status, many might consider the investment opportunity compelling.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓股价自7月中旬以来一直横盘整理。这家加拿大网络安全公司的股票是散户投资者的最爱之一。但除了股票的模因地位之外，许多人可能认为投资机会很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/773a956f9a5799130a4ccc3431293e3b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"677\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: BlackBerry headquarters.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：黑莓总部。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite analysts’ bearishness on BB, Wall Street Memes sees reasons to be optimistic about a long bet on the stock. We list three reasons why investors might want to consider the opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>尽管分析师对BB持悲观态度，但华尔街迷因认为有理由对该股的多头押注持乐观态度。我们列出了投资者可能想要考虑这个机会的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Promising industry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前景广阔的行业</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry has gone through a deep transformation of its business in the past several years: from a market-leading (then failing) smartphone maker to a cybersecurity company. Today, BlackBerry is viewed as a top security provider, as its solutions are&nbsp;claimed&nbsp;to address more than 96% of cyberthreats.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，黑莓经历了深刻的业务转型：从一家市场领先（当时已经失败）的智能手机制造商转变为一家网络安全公司。如今，黑莓被视为顶级安全提供商，因为其解决方案据称可以解决超过96%的网络威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Starting from the top down, the global cybersecurity market isforecastedto rise to $345 billion by 2026, representing nearly 10% CAGR, according to Statista (see below). Should BlackBerry remain a relevant player in the space, it stands to benefit from industry-wide growth tailwinds.</p><p><blockquote>根据Statista的数据，从上到下，全球网络安全市场预计到2026年将增至3450亿美元，复合年增长率接近10%（见下文）。如果黑莓仍然是该领域的重要参与者，它将受益于整个行业的增长顺风。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f217a7fe836e9eaf18958723c90ac91b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"554\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Size of the cybersecurity market worldwide, from 2021 to 2026.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年至2026年全球网络安全市场规模。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry seems to be already well positioned in the industry, particularly within the government vertical. The company reports to have several security&nbsp;certificates&nbsp;from the US government, as well as access to seven of the G7 and 18 of the G20 members.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓似乎已经在该行业处于有利地位，尤其是在政府垂直领域。据报道，该公司拥有美国政府颁发的多项安全证书，并可以访问七国集团中的7个成员和二十国集团中的18个成员。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, 19 of the top 25 electric vehicle OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) use BlackBerry's QNX operating system design. Together, they account for 61% of the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>最后，排名前25位的电动汽车OEM（原始设备制造商）中有19家使用黑莓的QNX操作系统设计。它们合计占电动汽车市场的61%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Contracts are inked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合同已签署</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry’s solutions, including QNX, IVY and others, seem to be gaining traction with the company’s clients. BlackBerry has reported several deals that could help it to drive increased revenue in the future.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的解决方案，包括QNX、IVY等，似乎越来越受到该公司客户的关注。黑莓报告了几项可能有助于其未来增加收入的交易。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tricky to quantify the value of these partnerships, as they tend to merely suggest a pipeline of future (sometimes multi-year) revenue. This is not to mention that these contract announcements are often short on details for investors and analysts to properly understand the revenue opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>量化这些合作伙伴关系的价值可能很棘手，因为它们往往只是暗示未来（有时是多年）收入的渠道。更不用说这些合同公告往往缺乏投资者和分析师正确理解收入机会的细节。</blockquote></p><p> But this could help to explain why, to an extent, BB stock lacks the market appreciation that (some may argue) it deserves. If or once BlackBerry’s commercial deals start to bear fruit and show up in the financial statements, the stock may finally gain traction.</p><p><blockquote>但这可能有助于解释为什么在某种程度上，BB股票缺乏应有的市场升值（有些人可能会说）。如果或一旦黑莓的商业交易开始取得成果并出现在财务报表中，该股可能最终会获得牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme factor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Some analysts may see BB’s meme status as a risk. However, the stock can also benefit from a combination of increased popularity among retail investors and elevated short interest (the&nbsp;ratio&nbsp;was still around 8% as of the end of Q3, which is neither low nor too high).</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师可能将BB的模因地位视为一种风险。然而，该股也可以受益于散户投资者受欢迎程度的提高和空头兴趣的提高（截至第三季度末，该比率仍在8%左右，既不低也不太高）。</blockquote></p><p> BB stock seems to have gone through a gamma squeeze in early January and June, and the stock skyrocketed for a moment. Similar price moves could happen once again, for as long as BlackBerry stock has a sizable community on Reddit and its ticker continues to&nbsp;trend&nbsp;among the most popular on discussion boards.</p><p><blockquote>BB股票似乎在1月初和6月经历了伽马挤压，股票一度暴涨。只要黑莓股票在Reddit上拥有相当大的社区，并且其股票继续成为讨论板上最受欢迎的股票之一，类似的价格走势就可能再次发生。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b03f5ac9ddd25a5fa6598edb0a903d3\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"423\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: BlackBerry stock chart 1-year range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：黑莓股票图表1年区间。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Buy BlackBerry Stock Now<blockquote>立即购买黑莓股票的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Buy BlackBerry Stock Now<blockquote>立即购买黑莓股票的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 08:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite Wall Street’s overall bearishness, there are a few good reasons to be optimistic about BlackBerry stock. Wall Street Memes lists three of them.</p><p><blockquote>尽管华尔街整体看跌，但有一些充分的理由对黑莓股票持乐观态度。华尔街迷因列出了其中三个。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry stock&nbsp;has been trading sideways since mid-July. Shares of the Canadian cybersecurity company are among retail investors’ favorites. But beyond the stock’s meme status, many might consider the investment opportunity compelling.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓股价自7月中旬以来一直横盘整理。这家加拿大网络安全公司的股票是散户投资者的最爱之一。但除了股票的模因地位之外，许多人可能认为投资机会很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/773a956f9a5799130a4ccc3431293e3b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"677\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: BlackBerry headquarters.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：黑莓总部。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite analysts’ bearishness on BB, Wall Street Memes sees reasons to be optimistic about a long bet on the stock. We list three reasons why investors might want to consider the opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>尽管分析师对BB持悲观态度，但华尔街迷因认为有理由对该股的多头押注持乐观态度。我们列出了投资者可能想要考虑这个机会的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Promising industry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前景广阔的行业</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry has gone through a deep transformation of its business in the past several years: from a market-leading (then failing) smartphone maker to a cybersecurity company. Today, BlackBerry is viewed as a top security provider, as its solutions are&nbsp;claimed&nbsp;to address more than 96% of cyberthreats.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，黑莓经历了深刻的业务转型：从一家市场领先（当时已经失败）的智能手机制造商转变为一家网络安全公司。如今，黑莓被视为顶级安全提供商，因为其解决方案据称可以解决超过96%的网络威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Starting from the top down, the global cybersecurity market isforecastedto rise to $345 billion by 2026, representing nearly 10% CAGR, according to Statista (see below). Should BlackBerry remain a relevant player in the space, it stands to benefit from industry-wide growth tailwinds.</p><p><blockquote>根据Statista的数据，从上到下，全球网络安全市场预计到2026年将增至3450亿美元，复合年增长率接近10%（见下文）。如果黑莓仍然是该领域的重要参与者，它将受益于整个行业的增长顺风。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f217a7fe836e9eaf18958723c90ac91b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"554\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Size of the cybersecurity market worldwide, from 2021 to 2026.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年至2026年全球网络安全市场规模。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry seems to be already well positioned in the industry, particularly within the government vertical. The company reports to have several security&nbsp;certificates&nbsp;from the US government, as well as access to seven of the G7 and 18 of the G20 members.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓似乎已经在该行业处于有利地位，尤其是在政府垂直领域。据报道，该公司拥有美国政府颁发的多项安全证书，并可以访问七国集团中的7个成员和二十国集团中的18个成员。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, 19 of the top 25 electric vehicle OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) use BlackBerry's QNX operating system design. Together, they account for 61% of the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>最后，排名前25位的电动汽车OEM（原始设备制造商）中有19家使用黑莓的QNX操作系统设计。它们合计占电动汽车市场的61%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Contracts are inked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合同已签署</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry’s solutions, including QNX, IVY and others, seem to be gaining traction with the company’s clients. BlackBerry has reported several deals that could help it to drive increased revenue in the future.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的解决方案，包括QNX、IVY等，似乎越来越受到该公司客户的关注。黑莓报告了几项可能有助于其未来增加收入的交易。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tricky to quantify the value of these partnerships, as they tend to merely suggest a pipeline of future (sometimes multi-year) revenue. This is not to mention that these contract announcements are often short on details for investors and analysts to properly understand the revenue opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>量化这些合作伙伴关系的价值可能很棘手，因为它们往往只是暗示未来（有时是多年）收入的渠道。更不用说这些合同公告往往缺乏投资者和分析师正确理解收入机会的细节。</blockquote></p><p> But this could help to explain why, to an extent, BB stock lacks the market appreciation that (some may argue) it deserves. If or once BlackBerry’s commercial deals start to bear fruit and show up in the financial statements, the stock may finally gain traction.</p><p><blockquote>但这可能有助于解释为什么在某种程度上，BB股票缺乏应有的市场升值（有些人可能会说）。如果或一旦黑莓的商业交易开始取得成果并出现在财务报表中，该股可能最终会获得牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme factor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Some analysts may see BB’s meme status as a risk. However, the stock can also benefit from a combination of increased popularity among retail investors and elevated short interest (the&nbsp;ratio&nbsp;was still around 8% as of the end of Q3, which is neither low nor too high).</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师可能将BB的模因地位视为一种风险。然而，该股也可以受益于散户投资者受欢迎程度的提高和空头兴趣的提高（截至第三季度末，该比率仍在8%左右，既不低也不太高）。</blockquote></p><p> BB stock seems to have gone through a gamma squeeze in early January and June, and the stock skyrocketed for a moment. Similar price moves could happen once again, for as long as BlackBerry stock has a sizable community on Reddit and its ticker continues to&nbsp;trend&nbsp;among the most popular on discussion boards.</p><p><blockquote>BB股票似乎在1月初和6月经历了伽马挤压，股票一度暴涨。只要黑莓股票在Reddit上拥有相当大的社区，并且其股票继续成为讨论板上最受欢迎的股票之一，类似的价格走势就可能再次发生。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b03f5ac9ddd25a5fa6598edb0a903d3\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"423\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: BlackBerry stock chart 1-year range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：黑莓股票图表1年区间。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/other-memes/3-reasons-to-buy-blackberry-stock-now\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/other-memes/3-reasons-to-buy-blackberry-stock-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195848012","content_text":"Despite Wall Street’s overall bearishness, there are a few good reasons to be optimistic about BlackBerry stock. Wall Street Memes lists three of them.\nBlackBerry stock has been trading sideways since mid-July. Shares of the Canadian cybersecurity company are among retail investors’ favorites. But beyond the stock’s meme status, many might consider the investment opportunity compelling.\nFigure 1: BlackBerry headquarters.\nDespite analysts’ bearishness on BB, Wall Street Memes sees reasons to be optimistic about a long bet on the stock. We list three reasons why investors might want to consider the opportunity.\nPromising industry\nBlackBerry has gone through a deep transformation of its business in the past several years: from a market-leading (then failing) smartphone maker to a cybersecurity company. Today, BlackBerry is viewed as a top security provider, as its solutions are claimed to address more than 96% of cyberthreats.\nStarting from the top down, the global cybersecurity market isforecastedto rise to $345 billion by 2026, representing nearly 10% CAGR, according to Statista (see below). Should BlackBerry remain a relevant player in the space, it stands to benefit from industry-wide growth tailwinds.\nFigure 2: Size of the cybersecurity market worldwide, from 2021 to 2026.\nBlackBerry seems to be already well positioned in the industry, particularly within the government vertical. The company reports to have several security certificates from the US government, as well as access to seven of the G7 and 18 of the G20 members.\nLastly, 19 of the top 25 electric vehicle OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) use BlackBerry's QNX operating system design. Together, they account for 61% of the EV market.\nContracts are inked\nBlackBerry’s solutions, including QNX, IVY and others, seem to be gaining traction with the company’s clients. BlackBerry has reported several deals that could help it to drive increased revenue in the future.\nIt can be tricky to quantify the value of these partnerships, as they tend to merely suggest a pipeline of future (sometimes multi-year) revenue. This is not to mention that these contract announcements are often short on details for investors and analysts to properly understand the revenue opportunity.\nBut this could help to explain why, to an extent, BB stock lacks the market appreciation that (some may argue) it deserves. If or once BlackBerry’s commercial deals start to bear fruit and show up in the financial statements, the stock may finally gain traction.\nMeme factor\nSome analysts may see BB’s meme status as a risk. However, the stock can also benefit from a combination of increased popularity among retail investors and elevated short interest (the ratio was still around 8% as of the end of Q3, which is neither low nor too high).\nBB stock seems to have gone through a gamma squeeze in early January and June, and the stock skyrocketed for a moment. Similar price moves could happen once again, for as long as BlackBerry stock has a sizable community on Reddit and its ticker continues to trend among the most popular on discussion boards.\nFigure 3: BlackBerry stock chart 1-year range.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850017737,"gmtCreate":1634534766458,"gmtModify":1634534767092,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Supports&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Supports&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Supports [强] [强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850017737","repostId":"1185155570","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185155570","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634511079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185155570?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185155570","media":"Barrons","summary":"Seventy-two S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. ","content":"<p>Seventy-two&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report earnings this week,&nbsp;as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights&nbsp;will include&nbsp;results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.</p><p><blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的临近，本周有72家标准普尔500指数公司公布了财报。美国几家大型银行上周开局良好。本周的财报亮点将包括电信、必需消费品、能源、科技、医疗保健和航空业著名公司的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685ba1e7f4763c12a3c0159fc2469ded\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Albertsons and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter &amp; Gamble,Halliburton,and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by&nbsp;Netflix&nbsp;and&nbsp;United Airlines Holdings&nbsp;after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森(Albertsons)和道富银行(State Street)将于周一启动。宝洁(Procter&amp;Gamble)、哈里伯顿(Halliburton)和强生(Johnson&amp;Johnson)是周二上午的亮点，收盘后紧随其后的是Netflix和联合航空控股(United Airlines Holdings)。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&amp;T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and&nbsp;Chipotle Mexican Grill&nbsp;report on Thursday, then&nbsp;American Express,Schlumberger,and&nbsp;Honeywell International&nbsp;close the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Verizon Communications、IBM和特斯拉将受到最多关注。AT&amp;T、美国航空集团、西南航空和Chipotle Mexican Grill将于周四发布报告，然后美国运通、Schlumberger和Honeywell International将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and&nbsp;IHS Markit’s&nbsp;Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济数据亮点包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会9月份领先经济指数和周五公布的IHS Markit 10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。所有这些都较前几个月的水平有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Other releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布的其他数据包括美联储最新的褐皮书，描述了美国各地的经济状况，以及两个9月份的房地产市场指标：人口普查局（Census Bureau）周二报告新的住宅建设数据，全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）周四报告现房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 10/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一10/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布9月份工业生产数据。继8月份增长0.4%后，经济学家预计增长0.20%。预计9月份产能利用率为76.5%，与8月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> Albertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森、飞利浦、Steel Dynamics和道富银行等公司发布了季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 10/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二10/19</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告9月份新住宅建设数据。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为162.3万套，8月为161.5万套。</blockquote></p><p> Halliburton, Procter &amp; Gamble, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿、宝洁、强生、Synchrony、Travelers、Philip Morris International、Kansas City Southern、WD-40、盈透证券集团、Netflix、万宝盛华、Dover和加拿大国家铁路等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 10/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三10/20</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布了关于央行12个地区当前经济状况的褐皮书。</blockquote></p><p> Abbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室、Biogen、NextEra Energy、ASML Holding、纳斯达克、加拿大太平洋铁路、Verizon Communications、CSX、Lam Research、特斯拉、IBM和Anthem讨论季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 10/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四10/21</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告9月份现房销售情况。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为610万套，而8月份为588万套。</blockquote></p><p> Dow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&amp;T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学、自由港麦克莫兰、原厂零件、西南航空、Valero Energy、Blackstone、Quest Diagnostics、Snap-on、Tractor Supply、Barclays、Danaher、AT&amp;T、Nucor、美国航空集团、AutoNation、Valero Energy、SL Green Realty、英特尔、Snap、Boston Beer、Mattel和Chipotle Mexican Grill在评级举办财报会议，讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Philadelphia Fed</b>&nbsp;diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.</p><p><blockquote><b>费城联储</b>衡量整体制造业活动的扩散指数预计将从9月份的30.7降至10月份的24。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布9月份领先经济指数。继8月份上涨0.90%后，预计上涨0.50%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 10/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五10/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b>&nbsp;the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit发布</b>10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业PMI普遍预期为60.3，服务业PMI预计为54.7，9月份分别为60.7和54.9。</blockquote></p><p> Whirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Whirlpool、Honeywell、Cleveland-Cliffs、Celanese、HCA Healthcare、Schlumberger、Seagate Technology Holdings、VF Corp.和American Express在评级举办投资者大会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-18 06:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Seventy-two&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report earnings this week,&nbsp;as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights&nbsp;will include&nbsp;results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.</p><p><blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的临近，本周有72家标准普尔500指数公司公布了财报。美国几家大型银行上周开局良好。本周的财报亮点将包括电信、必需消费品、能源、科技、医疗保健和航空业著名公司的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685ba1e7f4763c12a3c0159fc2469ded\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Albertsons and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter &amp; Gamble,Halliburton,and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by&nbsp;Netflix&nbsp;and&nbsp;United Airlines Holdings&nbsp;after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森(Albertsons)和道富银行(State Street)将于周一启动。宝洁(Procter&amp;Gamble)、哈里伯顿(Halliburton)和强生(Johnson&amp;Johnson)是周二上午的亮点，收盘后紧随其后的是Netflix和联合航空控股(United Airlines Holdings)。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&amp;T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and&nbsp;Chipotle Mexican Grill&nbsp;report on Thursday, then&nbsp;American Express,Schlumberger,and&nbsp;Honeywell International&nbsp;close the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Verizon Communications、IBM和特斯拉将受到最多关注。AT&amp;T、美国航空集团、西南航空和Chipotle Mexican Grill将于周四发布报告，然后美国运通、Schlumberger和Honeywell International将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and&nbsp;IHS Markit’s&nbsp;Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济数据亮点包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会9月份领先经济指数和周五公布的IHS Markit 10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。所有这些都较前几个月的水平有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Other releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布的其他数据包括美联储最新的褐皮书，描述了美国各地的经济状况，以及两个9月份的房地产市场指标：人口普查局（Census Bureau）周二报告新的住宅建设数据，全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）周四报告现房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 10/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一10/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布9月份工业生产数据。继8月份增长0.4%后，经济学家预计增长0.20%。预计9月份产能利用率为76.5%，与8月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> Albertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森、飞利浦、Steel Dynamics和道富银行等公司发布了季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 10/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二10/19</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告9月份新住宅建设数据。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为162.3万套，8月为161.5万套。</blockquote></p><p> Halliburton, Procter &amp; Gamble, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿、宝洁、强生、Synchrony、Travelers、Philip Morris International、Kansas City Southern、WD-40、盈透证券集团、Netflix、万宝盛华、Dover和加拿大国家铁路等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 10/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三10/20</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布了关于央行12个地区当前经济状况的褐皮书。</blockquote></p><p> Abbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室、Biogen、NextEra Energy、ASML Holding、纳斯达克、加拿大太平洋铁路、Verizon Communications、CSX、Lam Research、特斯拉、IBM和Anthem讨论季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 10/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四10/21</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告9月份现房销售情况。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为610万套，而8月份为588万套。</blockquote></p><p> Dow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&amp;T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学、自由港麦克莫兰、原厂零件、西南航空、Valero Energy、Blackstone、Quest Diagnostics、Snap-on、Tractor Supply、Barclays、Danaher、AT&amp;T、Nucor、美国航空集团、AutoNation、Valero Energy、SL Green Realty、英特尔、Snap、Boston Beer、Mattel和Chipotle Mexican Grill在评级举办财报会议，讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Philadelphia Fed</b>&nbsp;diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.</p><p><blockquote><b>费城联储</b>衡量整体制造业活动的扩散指数预计将从9月份的30.7降至10月份的24。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布9月份领先经济指数。继8月份上涨0.90%后，预计上涨0.50%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 10/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五10/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b>&nbsp;the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit发布</b>10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业PMI普遍预期为60.3，服务业PMI预计为54.7，9月份分别为60.7和54.9。</blockquote></p><p> Whirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Whirlpool、Honeywell、Cleveland-Cliffs、Celanese、HCA Healthcare、Schlumberger、Seagate Technology Holdings、VF Corp.和American Express在评级举办投资者大会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-at-t-netflix-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51634497206?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CMG":"墨式烧烤","NFLX":"奈飞","HAL":"哈里伯顿",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAL":"美国航空","T":"At&T","LUV":"西南航空","TSLA":"特斯拉","IBM":"IBM","INTC":"英特尔","AXP":"美国运通","JNJ":"强生",".DJI":"道琼斯","UAL":"联合大陆航空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-at-t-netflix-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51634497206?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185155570","content_text":"Seventy-two S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights will include results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.\n\nAlbertsons and State Street get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter & Gamble,Halliburton,and Johnson & Johnson are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by Netflix and United Airlines Holdings after the market closes.\nOn Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and Chipotle Mexican Grill report on Thursday, then American Express,Schlumberger,and Honeywell International close the week on Friday.\nEconomic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and IHS Markit’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.\nOther releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.\nMonday 10/18\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.\nAlbertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.\nTuesday 10/19\nThe Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.\nHalliburton, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nWednesday 10/20\nThe Federal Reserve releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.\nAbbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.\nThursday 10/21\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.\nDow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Philadelphia Fed diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.\nFriday 10/22\nIHS Markit releases the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.\nWhirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CMG":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"IBM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AAL":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"HAL":0.9,"AXP":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"T":0.9,"LUV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UAL":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824563821,"gmtCreate":1634339905602,"gmtModify":1634339906206,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes .. supports&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[弱]&nbsp;[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes .. supports&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[弱]&nbsp;[弱]&nbsp;","text":"Yes .. supports [强] [弱] [弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824563821","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824569915,"gmtCreate":1634339858781,"gmtModify":1634339859363,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Likes&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Likes [强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824569915","repostId":"2175112192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824257022,"gmtCreate":1634322568490,"gmtModify":1634322569070,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Wow....[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824257022","repostId":"1125791144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125791144","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634308708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125791144?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV股价早盘再飙升3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125791144","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street","content":"<p>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;as&nbsp;fuboTV, AT&amp;T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.</p><p><blockquote>随着fuboTV与AT&amp;T SportsNet联手，fuboTV股价在早盘交易中又飙升3%；斯特里特说买。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848fb4ecec51eb5279ad3999ad090d32\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sports focused live TV streaming platform&nbsp;fuboTV Inc.(<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&amp;T SportsNet to stream AT&amp;T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>专注于体育的直播电视流媒体平台fuboTV Inc.(<b>富博</b>）最近宣布，它已与AT&amp;T SportsNet达成发行协议，将在未来几天内在fuboTV上播放AT&amp;T SportsNet落基山。</blockquote></p><p> The deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易将使fuboTV能够获得犹他爵士队、拉斯维加斯黄金骑士队和科罗拉多落基山脉队的地区报道，包括其他辅助节目和幕后内容。最初，地区体育网络将在内华达州、犹他州及周边地区的fuboTV上推出。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, Needham analyst&nbsp;Laura Martin&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近，Needham分析师Laura Martin重申了对该股的买入评级，目标价为60美元，这意味着较当前水平有135.6%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV股价早盘再飙升3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nfuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV股价早盘再飙升3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-15 22:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;as&nbsp;fuboTV, AT&amp;T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.</p><p><blockquote>随着fuboTV与AT&amp;T SportsNet联手，fuboTV股价在早盘交易中又飙升3%；斯特里特说买。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848fb4ecec51eb5279ad3999ad090d32\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sports focused live TV streaming platform&nbsp;fuboTV Inc.(<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&amp;T SportsNet to stream AT&amp;T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>专注于体育的直播电视流媒体平台fuboTV Inc.(<b>富博</b>）最近宣布，它已与AT&amp;T SportsNet达成发行协议，将在未来几天内在fuboTV上播放AT&amp;T SportsNet落基山。</blockquote></p><p> The deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易将使fuboTV能够获得犹他爵士队、拉斯维加斯黄金骑士队和科罗拉多落基山脉队的地区报道，包括其他辅助节目和幕后内容。最初，地区体育网络将在内华达州、犹他州及周边地区的fuboTV上推出。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, Needham analyst&nbsp;Laura Martin&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近，Needham分析师Laura Martin重申了对该股的买入评级，目标价为60美元，这意味着较当前水平有135.6%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125791144","content_text":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.\n\nSports focused live TV streaming platform fuboTV Inc.(FUBO) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&T SportsNet to stream AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.\nThe deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.\nRecently, Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FUBO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824976236,"gmtCreate":1634274804714,"gmtModify":1634274804880,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"g vəziyyət&nbsp; gG GGtqayGatv&nbsp;","listText":"g vəziyyət&nbsp; gG GGtqayGatv&nbsp;","text":"g vəziyyət gG GGtqayGatv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824976236","repostId":"2174974501","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822474703,"gmtCreate":1634169245525,"gmtModify":1634169245744,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Green pls&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Green pls&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Green pls [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822474703","repostId":"2175164396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2175164396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634166327,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2175164396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 07:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Nasdaq rise with growth stocks; JPMorgan a drag<blockquote>标普500、纳斯达克随成长股上涨；摩根大通拖累</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2175164396","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"NEW YORK (REUTERS) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Wednesday (Oct 13), led by gains in shar","content":"<p><div> NEW YORK (REUTERS) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Wednesday (Oct 13), led by gains in shares of big growth names like Amazon.com and Microsoft, but JPMorgan shares fell along with other bank...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（路透社）-标普500和纳斯达克周三（10月13日）收高，亚马逊和微软等大型成长型公司股价上涨，但摩根大通股价与其他银行一起下跌...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-rise-with-growth-stocks-jpmorgan-a-drag\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-rise-with-growth-stocks-jpmorgan-a-drag\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Nasdaq rise with growth stocks; JPMorgan a drag<blockquote>标普500、纳斯达克随成长股上涨；摩根大通拖累</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Nasdaq rise with growth stocks; JPMorgan a drag<blockquote>标普500、纳斯达克随成长股上涨；摩根大通拖累</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Straits Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 07:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> NEW YORK (REUTERS) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Wednesday (Oct 13), led by gains in shares of big growth names like Amazon.com and Microsoft, but JPMorgan shares fell along with other bank...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（路透社）-标普500和纳斯达克周三（10月13日）收高，亚马逊和微软等大型成长型公司股价上涨，但摩根大通股价与其他银行一起下跌...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-rise-with-growth-stocks-jpmorgan-a-drag\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-rise-with-growth-stocks-jpmorgan-a-drag\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-rise-with-growth-stocks-jpmorgan-a-drag\">The Straits Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","JPM":"摩根大通",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-rise-with-growth-stocks-jpmorgan-a-drag","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2175164396","content_text":"NEW YORK (REUTERS) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Wednesday (Oct 13), led by gains in shares of big growth names like Amazon.com and Microsoft, but JPMorgan shares fell along with other bank shares and weighed on the market.\nThe S&P 500 briefly added to gains following the release of minutes from the September Federal Reserve policy meeting.\nUS central bankers signalled they could start reducing crisis-era support for the economy in mid-November, though they remained divided over how much of a threat high inflation poses and how soon they may need to raise interest rates, the minutes showed.\nEarlier, a Labour Department report showed consumer prices increased solidly in September, further strengthening the case for a Fed interest-rate hike.\nShares of JPMorgan Chase & Co fell 2.6% even though JPMorgan's third-quarter earnings beat expectations, helped by global dealmaking boom and release of more loan loss reserves.\nThe stock declined along with the other bank shares and was among the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Dow, which ended flat.\nThe S&P 500 bank index was down 1.3%, with longer-dated Treasury yields down on the day. The day's corporate results kicked off third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies.\n\"My hope is that as we work our way through earnings season, that the forward-looking guidance will be good enough that we'll close the year higher. But right now the market is in a show-me phase,\" said Jim Awad, senior managing director at Clearstead Advisors LLC in New York.\nMega-caps growth names including Amazon.com Inc, Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft Corp all rose.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53 points to 34,377.81, the S&P 500 gained 13.15 points, or 0.30%, to 4,363.8 and the Nasdaq Composite added 105.71 points, or 0.73%, to 14,571.64.\nBlackRock Inc gained 3.8% after the world's largest money manager beat quarterly profit estimates as an improving economy helped boost its assets under management, driving up fee income.\nAlso in earnings, Delta Air Lines fell 5.8% after the company reported its first quarterly profit without federal aid since the coronavirus pandemic, but warned of a pre-tax loss for the fourth quarter due to a sharp rise in fuel prices.\nAnalysts expect corporate America to report strong profit growth in the third quarter but investor worries have been mounting over how supply chain problems, labour shortages and higher energy prices might affect businesses emerging from the pandemic.\nBank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley will report results on Thursday, while Goldman Sachs is due to report on Friday.\nAmong other movers, Apple Inc dipped 0.4% after a report said the iPhone marker was planning to cut production of its iPhone 13.0 trading days.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.73-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.39-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 8 new 52-week highs and 9 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 47 new highs and 56 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.31 billion shares, compared with the 10.8 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822385298,"gmtCreate":1634091610135,"gmtModify":1634091610697,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Supports&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Supports&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Supports [强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822385298","repostId":"1168762449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168762449","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634049367,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bionano Genomics shares surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>Bionano Genomics股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762449","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Bionano Genomics shares surged more than 7% in morning trading as Bionano Genomics to Buy BioDiscove","content":"<p>Bionano Genomics shares surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Bionano Genomics to Buy BioDiscovery for Up to $100 Million.</p><p><blockquote>随着Bionano Genomics以高达1亿美元的价格收购BioDiscovery，Bionano Genomics股价在早盘交易中飙升超过7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c8c32cf14f64ffe97ee722c93caf557\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bionano Genomics, Inc. (BNGO) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire BioDiscovery, Inc., a leading software company with best-in-class solutions for analysis, interpretation and reporting of genomics data. The transaction is expected to accelerate and broaden Bionano’s market leadership in digital cytogenetics and comprehensive genome analysis. As a result of the transaction, Soheil Shams, PhD, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of BioDiscovery, will join Bionano’s leadership team as Chief Informatics Officer.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano Genomics，Inc.（BNGO）今天宣布，它已达成最终协议，收购BioDiscovery，Inc.，这是一家领先的软件公司，为基因组学数据的分析、解释和报告提供一流的解决方案。该交易预计将加速和拓宽Bionano在数字细胞遗传学和综合基因组分析领域的市场领导地位。作为交易的结果，BioDiscovery的创始人兼首席执行官Soheil Shams博士将加入Bionano的领导团队，担任首席信息官。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易详情</b></blockquote></p><p> Bionano’s transaction consideration will be up to $100 million, consisting of a combination of cash and equity. A portion of the equity is subject to vesting based on continued service of key employees and a portion of the cash is contingent on achieving full integration of OGM data into BioDiscovery’s software platform. The acquisition is expected to close before October 22, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano的交易对价将高达1亿美元，由现金和股权组合构成。部分股权取决于关键员工的持续服务，部分现金取决于OGM数据完全集成到BioDiscovery的软件平台中。此次收购预计将于2021年10月22日前完成。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bionano Genomics shares surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>Bionano Genomics股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBionano Genomics shares surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>Bionano Genomics股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-12 22:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bionano Genomics shares surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Bionano Genomics to Buy BioDiscovery for Up to $100 Million.</p><p><blockquote>随着Bionano Genomics以高达1亿美元的价格收购BioDiscovery，Bionano Genomics股价在早盘交易中飙升超过7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c8c32cf14f64ffe97ee722c93caf557\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bionano Genomics, Inc. (BNGO) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire BioDiscovery, Inc., a leading software company with best-in-class solutions for analysis, interpretation and reporting of genomics data. The transaction is expected to accelerate and broaden Bionano’s market leadership in digital cytogenetics and comprehensive genome analysis. As a result of the transaction, Soheil Shams, PhD, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of BioDiscovery, will join Bionano’s leadership team as Chief Informatics Officer.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano Genomics，Inc.（BNGO）今天宣布，它已达成最终协议，收购BioDiscovery，Inc.，这是一家领先的软件公司，为基因组学数据的分析、解释和报告提供一流的解决方案。该交易预计将加速和拓宽Bionano在数字细胞遗传学和综合基因组分析领域的市场领导地位。作为交易的结果，BioDiscovery的创始人兼首席执行官Soheil Shams博士将加入Bionano的领导团队，担任首席信息官。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易详情</b></blockquote></p><p> Bionano’s transaction consideration will be up to $100 million, consisting of a combination of cash and equity. A portion of the equity is subject to vesting based on continued service of key employees and a portion of the cash is contingent on achieving full integration of OGM data into BioDiscovery’s software platform. The acquisition is expected to close before October 22, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano的交易对价将高达1亿美元，由现金和股权组合构成。部分股权取决于关键员工的持续服务，部分现金取决于OGM数据完全集成到BioDiscovery的软件平台中。此次收购预计将于2021年10月22日前完成。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNGO":"Bionano Genomics"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762449","content_text":"Bionano Genomics shares surged more than 7% in morning trading as Bionano Genomics to Buy BioDiscovery for Up to $100 Million.\n\nBionano Genomics, Inc. (BNGO) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire BioDiscovery, Inc., a leading software company with best-in-class solutions for analysis, interpretation and reporting of genomics data. The transaction is expected to accelerate and broaden Bionano’s market leadership in digital cytogenetics and comprehensive genome analysis. As a result of the transaction, Soheil Shams, PhD, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of BioDiscovery, will join Bionano’s leadership team as Chief Informatics Officer.\nTransaction Details\nBionano’s transaction consideration will be up to $100 million, consisting of a combination of cash and equity. A portion of the equity is subject to vesting based on continued service of key employees and a portion of the cash is contingent on achieving full integration of OGM data into BioDiscovery’s software platform. The acquisition is expected to close before October 22, 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNGO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822385363,"gmtCreate":1634091521697,"gmtModify":1634091522281,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes ...","listText":"Likes ...","text":"Likes ...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822385363","repostId":"1189203328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189203328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634087217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189203328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 09:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189203328","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8,","content":"<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 09:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189203328","content_text":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.\nIt is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828527449,"gmtCreate":1633926974230,"gmtModify":1633926974384,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes...coming&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes...coming&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Yes...coming [强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828527449","repostId":"1143168499","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143168499","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633919503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143168499?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 10:31","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Airlines shares rose more than 8% in morning trading<blockquote>新加坡航空股价早盘上涨逾8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143168499","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"SINGAPORE shares started the week higher on Monday, as the Republic announced it would open travel l","content":"<p>SINGAPORE shares started the week higher on Monday, as the Republic announced it would open travel lanes for vaccinated individuals from more countries,&nbsp;despite tightening rules for the unvaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡股市周一开盘走高，因为该共和国宣布将为来自更多国家的接种疫苗的个人开放旅行通道，尽管对未接种疫苗的人收紧了规定。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore Airlines&nbsp;was also actively traded, with 5.1 million shares worth S$27.9 million changing hands. The counter jumped&nbsp;8.38%&nbsp;to S$5.56.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡航空也交投活跃，换手510万股，价值2790万新元。该股股价上涨8.38%，至5.56新元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d505007cdebdf08df7bd687485879d1a\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On Saturday, Singapore announced that it would&nbsp;expand its Vaccinated Travel Lane scheme&nbsp;to an additional nine countries, allowing fully vaccinated travellers from Singapore and these nations to enjoy quarantine-free travel both ways.</p><p><blockquote>周六，新加坡宣布将其疫苗接种旅行通道计划扩大到另外九个国家，允许来自新加坡和这些国家的完全接种疫苗的旅行者享受双向免检疫旅行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Airlines shares rose more than 8% in morning trading<blockquote>新加坡航空股价早盘上涨逾8%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Airlines shares rose more than 8% in morning trading<blockquote>新加坡航空股价早盘上涨逾8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-11 10:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SINGAPORE shares started the week higher on Monday, as the Republic announced it would open travel lanes for vaccinated individuals from more countries,&nbsp;despite tightening rules for the unvaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡股市周一开盘走高，因为该共和国宣布将为来自更多国家的接种疫苗的个人开放旅行通道，尽管对未接种疫苗的人收紧了规定。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore Airlines&nbsp;was also actively traded, with 5.1 million shares worth S$27.9 million changing hands. The counter jumped&nbsp;8.38%&nbsp;to S$5.56.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡航空也交投活跃，换手510万股，价值2790万新元。该股股价上涨8.38%，至5.56新元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d505007cdebdf08df7bd687485879d1a\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On Saturday, Singapore announced that it would&nbsp;expand its Vaccinated Travel Lane scheme&nbsp;to an additional nine countries, allowing fully vaccinated travellers from Singapore and these nations to enjoy quarantine-free travel both ways.</p><p><blockquote>周六，新加坡宣布将其疫苗接种旅行通道计划扩大到另外九个国家，允许来自新加坡和这些国家的完全接种疫苗的旅行者享受双向免检疫旅行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"C6L.SI":"新加坡航空公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143168499","content_text":"SINGAPORE shares started the week higher on Monday, as the Republic announced it would open travel lanes for vaccinated individuals from more countries, despite tightening rules for the unvaccinated.\nSingapore Airlines was also actively traded, with 5.1 million shares worth S$27.9 million changing hands. The counter jumped 8.38% to S$5.56.\n\nOn Saturday, Singapore announced that it would expand its Vaccinated Travel Lane scheme to an additional nine countries, allowing fully vaccinated travellers from Singapore and these nations to enjoy quarantine-free travel both ways.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C6L.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821868947,"gmtCreate":1633732367834,"gmtModify":1633732368422,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prices never reflects what is being said......[白眼]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"Prices never reflects what is being said......[白眼]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"Prices never reflects what is being said......[白眼] [白眼] [白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821868947","repostId":"2173916958","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821863790,"gmtCreate":1633732036277,"gmtModify":1633732036952,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Wow....[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821863790","repostId":"1108043623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108043623","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633682657,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108043623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Vaxart gained 7% in premarket trading<blockquote>Vaxart在盘前交易中上涨7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108043623","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 8) Vaxart, Inc shares are up 7% in premarket trading after publishing results in an animal mode","content":"<p>(Oct 8)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">Vaxart, Inc</a></b> shares are&nbsp;up 7%&nbsp;in premarket trading after&nbsp;publishing results in an animal model that its COVID-19 vaccine pill can reduce airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>（10月8日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">Vaxart公司</a></b>在公布动物模型结果表明其COVID-19疫苗可以减少新型冠状病毒病毒的空气传播后，该公司股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote></p><p> Hamsters were vaccinated orally or intranasally with the vaccine candidate and then exposed to high levels of the COVID-19 virus to promote vaccine breakthrough. Vaccinated hamsters cleared the virus in the nose and lungs quickly.</p><p><blockquote>仓鼠口服或鼻内接种候选疫苗，然后暴露于高水平的新冠肺炎病毒，以促进疫苗突破。接种疫苗的仓鼠很快清除了鼻子和肺部的病毒。</blockquote></p><p> But before clearing the infection, vaccinated hamsters were exposed to unvaccinated hamsters. The vaccinated hamsters infected fewer hamsters and created less severe clinical symptoms than did unvaccinated hamsters.</p><p><blockquote>但在清除感染之前，接种疫苗的仓鼠暴露于未接种疫苗的仓鼠。与未接种疫苗的仓鼠相比，接种疫苗的仓鼠感染的仓鼠更少，产生的临床症状也更轻。</blockquote></p><p> Results were published in&nbsp;BioRxiv, and have yet to be peer-reviewed.</p><p><blockquote>结果发表在BioRxiv上，尚未经过同行评审。</blockquote></p><p> Vaxart yesterday&nbsp;began recruitment in a phase 2 trial of the oral COVID vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Vaxart昨天开始招募口服新冠疫苗的2期试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebf72c0d5d89ceb2daa800e4fd962dc\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vaxart gained 7% in premarket trading<blockquote>Vaxart在盘前交易中上涨7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVaxart gained 7% in premarket trading<blockquote>Vaxart在盘前交易中上涨7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-08 16:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct 8)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">Vaxart, Inc</a></b> shares are&nbsp;up 7%&nbsp;in premarket trading after&nbsp;publishing results in an animal model that its COVID-19 vaccine pill can reduce airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>（10月8日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">Vaxart公司</a></b>在公布动物模型结果表明其COVID-19疫苗可以减少新型冠状病毒病毒的空气传播后，该公司股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote></p><p> Hamsters were vaccinated orally or intranasally with the vaccine candidate and then exposed to high levels of the COVID-19 virus to promote vaccine breakthrough. Vaccinated hamsters cleared the virus in the nose and lungs quickly.</p><p><blockquote>仓鼠口服或鼻内接种候选疫苗，然后暴露于高水平的新冠肺炎病毒，以促进疫苗突破。接种疫苗的仓鼠很快清除了鼻子和肺部的病毒。</blockquote></p><p> But before clearing the infection, vaccinated hamsters were exposed to unvaccinated hamsters. The vaccinated hamsters infected fewer hamsters and created less severe clinical symptoms than did unvaccinated hamsters.</p><p><blockquote>但在清除感染之前，接种疫苗的仓鼠暴露于未接种疫苗的仓鼠。与未接种疫苗的仓鼠相比，接种疫苗的仓鼠感染的仓鼠更少，产生的临床症状也更轻。</blockquote></p><p> Results were published in&nbsp;BioRxiv, and have yet to be peer-reviewed.</p><p><blockquote>结果发表在BioRxiv上，尚未经过同行评审。</blockquote></p><p> Vaxart yesterday&nbsp;began recruitment in a phase 2 trial of the oral COVID vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Vaxart昨天开始招募口服新冠疫苗的2期试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebf72c0d5d89ceb2daa800e4fd962dc\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VXRT":"Vaxart, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108043623","content_text":"(Oct 8) Vaxart, Inc shares are up 7% in premarket trading after publishing results in an animal model that its COVID-19 vaccine pill can reduce airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2.\nHamsters were vaccinated orally or intranasally with the vaccine candidate and then exposed to high levels of the COVID-19 virus to promote vaccine breakthrough. Vaccinated hamsters cleared the virus in the nose and lungs quickly.\nBut before clearing the infection, vaccinated hamsters were exposed to unvaccinated hamsters. The vaccinated hamsters infected fewer hamsters and created less severe clinical symptoms than did unvaccinated hamsters.\nResults were published in BioRxiv, and have yet to be peer-reviewed.\nVaxart yesterday began recruitment in a phase 2 trial of the oral COVID vaccine.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VXRT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821967431,"gmtCreate":1633688491388,"gmtModify":1633688498868,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Wow....[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821967431","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。综上所述，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万，而7月和8月平均下降约10万。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。综上所述，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万，而7月和8月平均下降约10万。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823915602,"gmtCreate":1633571209536,"gmtModify":1633571210435,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559014783889591","idStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That said..Let take a breaks....[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"That said..Let take a breaks....[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"That said..Let take a breaks....[得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823915602","repostId":"1168850593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168850593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633526214,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168850593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 21:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168850593","media":"Barron's","summary":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But","content":"<p>October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.</p><p><blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始，通常是股市强劲的三个月。但这一次的开局并不稳定——这是一个警告，投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&amp;P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.</p><p><blockquote>危险信号并不是转移视线：商业银行Truist的策略师表示，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数第四季度上涨了79%。平均涨幅为4%。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&amp;P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>但周一，即10月份第一个完整交易周开始时，标普500出现抛售——就像9月份大部分时间一样。该指数当天收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.</p><p><blockquote>原因有很多，但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote></p><p> After a bad September—the S&amp;P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers.&nbsp;On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了糟糕的9月份（标普500上个月下跌了5%）之后，通常会迎来糟糕的10月份。该指数在10月份仅上涨了54%。根据美国银行的数据，平均而言，9月份下跌意味着10月份下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&amp;P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.</p><p><blockquote>然后，还有一个残酷的现实，市场即将出现调整——下跌10%或更多。上周之前，标普500一年来收盘价从未低于历史收盘高点5%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”</p><p><blockquote>ZEGA Financial首席执行官杰伊·佩斯特里切利(Jay Pestrichelli)写道：“我认为我们还没有看到股市触底。”“虽然9月份股市下跌令人不安，但远未达到传统的10%市场回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.</p><p><blockquote>现在考虑潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升（部分原因是供应短缺）正在削弱一些公司的利润率。对于大盘来说，物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息，经济增长可能会放缓，特别是因为通胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”</p><p><blockquote>Catalyst Capital Advisors联合创始人兼首席投资官戴维·米勒(David Miller)表示：“通胀确实在加剧，他们（美联储）不能让通胀猖獗。”“在明确美联储实际要做什么之前，市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示，美联储可能会在年底前开始“缩减”，即减少每月的债券购买量。</blockquote></p><p> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&amp;P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来的利润变得不那么有价值。标普500的平均预期一年市盈率已为20倍，低于今年早些时候的22倍。</blockquote></p><p> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.</p><p><blockquote>那么外卖呢？以史为鉴——让根本性风险尘埃落定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 21:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.</p><p><blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始，通常是股市强劲的三个月。但这一次的开局并不稳定——这是一个警告，投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&amp;P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.</p><p><blockquote>危险信号并不是转移视线：商业银行Truist的策略师表示，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数第四季度上涨了79%。平均涨幅为4%。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&amp;P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>但周一，即10月份第一个完整交易周开始时，标普500出现抛售——就像9月份大部分时间一样。该指数当天收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.</p><p><blockquote>原因有很多，但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote></p><p> After a bad September—the S&amp;P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers.&nbsp;On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了糟糕的9月份（标普500上个月下跌了5%）之后，通常会迎来糟糕的10月份。该指数在10月份仅上涨了54%。根据美国银行的数据，平均而言，9月份下跌意味着10月份下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&amp;P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.</p><p><blockquote>然后，还有一个残酷的现实，市场即将出现调整——下跌10%或更多。上周之前，标普500一年来收盘价从未低于历史收盘高点5%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”</p><p><blockquote>ZEGA Financial首席执行官杰伊·佩斯特里切利(Jay Pestrichelli)写道：“我认为我们还没有看到股市触底。”“虽然9月份股市下跌令人不安，但远未达到传统的10%市场回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.</p><p><blockquote>现在考虑潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升（部分原因是供应短缺）正在削弱一些公司的利润率。对于大盘来说，物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息，经济增长可能会放缓，特别是因为通胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”</p><p><blockquote>Catalyst Capital Advisors联合创始人兼首席投资官戴维·米勒(David Miller)表示：“通胀确实在加剧，他们（美联储）不能让通胀猖獗。”“在明确美联储实际要做什么之前，市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示，美联储可能会在年底前开始“缩减”，即减少每月的债券购买量。</blockquote></p><p> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&amp;P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来的利润变得不那么有价值。标普500的平均预期一年市盈率已为20倍，低于今年早些时候的22倍。</blockquote></p><p> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.</p><p><blockquote>那么外卖呢？以史为鉴——让根本性风险尘埃落定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168850593","content_text":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.\nThe red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.\nBut on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.\nThe reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.\nAfter a bad September—the S&P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers. On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.\nThen, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.\n“I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”\nNow consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.\nInflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.\n“Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”\nLastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.\nLess money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.\nSo the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":888215639,"gmtCreate":1631498925321,"gmtModify":1631890384094,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Musical&nbsp;chairs .....again.....[DOGE]&nbsp;[捂嘴]&nbsp;[捂嘴]&nbsp;","listText":"Musical&nbsp;chairs .....again.....[DOGE]&nbsp;[捂嘴]&nbsp;[捂嘴]&nbsp;","text":"Musical chairs .....again.....[DOGE] [捂嘴] [捂嘴]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888215639","repostId":"2167305804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163624026,"gmtCreate":1623884023465,"gmtModify":1634026622113,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So will resume our climbing after this ....relievee...[握手]&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;","listText":"So will resume our climbing after this ....relievee...[握手]&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;","text":"So will resume our climbing after this ....relievee...[握手] [握手] [握手]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163624026","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824257022,"gmtCreate":1634322568490,"gmtModify":1634322569070,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Wow....[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824257022","repostId":"1125791144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125791144","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634308708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125791144?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV股价早盘再飙升3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125791144","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street","content":"<p>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;as&nbsp;fuboTV, AT&amp;T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.</p><p><blockquote>随着fuboTV与AT&amp;T SportsNet联手，fuboTV股价在早盘交易中又飙升3%；斯特里特说买。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848fb4ecec51eb5279ad3999ad090d32\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sports focused live TV streaming platform&nbsp;fuboTV Inc.(<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&amp;T SportsNet to stream AT&amp;T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>专注于体育的直播电视流媒体平台fuboTV Inc.(<b>富博</b>）最近宣布，它已与AT&amp;T SportsNet达成发行协议，将在未来几天内在fuboTV上播放AT&amp;T SportsNet落基山。</blockquote></p><p> The deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易将使fuboTV能够获得犹他爵士队、拉斯维加斯黄金骑士队和科罗拉多落基山脉队的地区报道，包括其他辅助节目和幕后内容。最初，地区体育网络将在内华达州、犹他州及周边地区的fuboTV上推出。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, Needham analyst&nbsp;Laura Martin&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近，Needham分析师Laura Martin重申了对该股的买入评级，目标价为60美元，这意味着较当前水平有135.6%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV股价早盘再飙升3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nfuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV股价早盘再飙升3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-15 22:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;as&nbsp;fuboTV, AT&amp;T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.</p><p><blockquote>随着fuboTV与AT&amp;T SportsNet联手，fuboTV股价在早盘交易中又飙升3%；斯特里特说买。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848fb4ecec51eb5279ad3999ad090d32\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sports focused live TV streaming platform&nbsp;fuboTV Inc.(<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&amp;T SportsNet to stream AT&amp;T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>专注于体育的直播电视流媒体平台fuboTV Inc.(<b>富博</b>）最近宣布，它已与AT&amp;T SportsNet达成发行协议，将在未来几天内在fuboTV上播放AT&amp;T SportsNet落基山。</blockquote></p><p> The deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易将使fuboTV能够获得犹他爵士队、拉斯维加斯黄金骑士队和科罗拉多落基山脉队的地区报道，包括其他辅助节目和幕后内容。最初，地区体育网络将在内华达州、犹他州及周边地区的fuboTV上推出。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, Needham analyst&nbsp;Laura Martin&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近，Needham分析师Laura Martin重申了对该股的买入评级，目标价为60美元，这意味着较当前水平有135.6%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125791144","content_text":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.\n\nSports focused live TV streaming platform fuboTV Inc.(FUBO) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&T SportsNet to stream AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.\nThe deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.\nRecently, Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FUBO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188502635,"gmtCreate":1623453375627,"gmtModify":1634033101722,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So....what next ....still bullish ?&nbsp;Pls like n comments ..tks&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;","listText":"So....what next ....still bullish ?&nbsp;Pls like n comments ..tks&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;","text":"So....what next ....still bullish ? Pls like n comments ..tks [握手]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188502635","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198311684?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——而且选择有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<p>  <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>  The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p><p><blockquote><b>基本面尚未适用于美国市场，但这种情况似乎即将改变。</b>冠状病毒大流行对投资者来说非常好，但大多数人现在意识到，股市的非凡表现并不是基于基本面，而基本面在一段时间前就不再重要了。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p><p><blockquote>各国央行一直在通过大规模流动性注入和零利率来推动资产价格。消费和企业盈利受到政府巨额转移支付、财政刺激和行业支持的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>它会持续吗？共识是大多数资产定价过高。价格最终是未来现金流的现值。当局操纵了贴现率，但改变由实体经济驱动的潜在长期现金流更加困难。央行设计的低波动性也鼓励了价格的上涨。在某个阶段，挥霍无度的政府赤字可能会通过减少支出或增加税收来控制。这些政策也可能推动通胀，需要收紧货币政策和提高利率。</blockquote></p><p> Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p><p><blockquote>目前的高股价使投资者面临突然调整的风险，当音乐椅的游戏意外停止时。鉴于几乎所有的收益都是价格而不是收入（股息、利息等）。），脆弱性加剧。金融体系的不稳定结构——高杠杆、影子银行、流动性不足、未解决的联系、跟风投资者的上升——意味着任何问题都可能引发重大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的选择有限。你可以相信“新常态”的持久性。然后，风险资产投资是合理的，因为当局必须确保高且不断上涨的资产价格，主要是因为替代方案太糟糕而无法考虑。这假设策略选项无限期地保持不受约束。</blockquote></p><p> Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p><p><blockquote>或者投资者可以依靠动量，本质上是凯恩斯所谓的投资选美理论，该理论预测了今天的“模因股票”。成功的投资需要投资者在所有评委中选出最受欢迎的面孔，而不是他们个人可能觉得最有吸引力的面孔。困难在于了解法官的想法，并在音乐停止之前识别何时出售。</blockquote></p><p> Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p><p><blockquote>第三，投资者可以将资金存入现金。这意味着可能会在很长一段时间内接受极低的回报，最糟糕的是，错过进一步的收益。</blockquote></p><p> An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p><p><blockquote>另一种选择是防御性地重新定位于在重要行业运营或销售主食的具有可靠收入流的资产或业务。这些传统的“寡妇和孤儿”投资如今更难找到。“安全”政府债券现在收入很少，但风险很高。股票和房地产价格高度相关，反映了投资者行为以及对杠杆的普遍依赖。当杠杆投资者需要筹集现金时，流动性更强、质量更好的资产经常面临抛售压力。今天，就像涨潮托起所有的船一样，退潮让每个人都被困住了。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>第四，投资者可以寻求从通胀上升中受益，转向受益于价格上涨的股票。但对股价的影响将取决于是利润通胀（即终端产品价格上涨）还是成本通胀，包括工资上涨。如果是后者，那么盈利的挤压可能会对股票估值产生不利影响。再加上利率上升，这可能会对股票产生不利影响。另一种选择是通胀挂钩证券，例如国债通胀保值证券(TIPS)TIP，+0.52%或大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p><p><blockquote>第五，投资者可能会“偏离轨道”，认为现有政策不可持续，经济体系已无可挽回地崩溃。这有利于加密货币、贵金属或收藏品——供应自然受到限制的非传统资产。国家没收、征税和监管的能力，以及对法院执行权利的依赖，使这种对自由的追求变得复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p><p><blockquote>超级富豪和一些高净值人士已经通过进入私人市场而脱离了电网。由于担心被操纵和游戏化的市场，他们现在专注于非上市的实体企业和资产以及私人债务，为了更好的经济性、隐私和控制而牺牲流动性和透明度。不幸的是，这些选择对普通人来说是有限的——这是一种不同形式的不平等。</blockquote></p><p> Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者面临着霍布森虚幻的选择，实际上只提供一件事。他们可能会因为押注价格上涨或价格持续上涨而失败。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，政策制定者继续加剧几十年来的错误。他们现在必须继续增加债务并维持低利率，以保持资产价格高位。政府赤字对于维持经济活动至关重要。把罐子踢到路边是确保清算日推迟的唯一方法——NIMTO（不是在我的任期内）。这迫使投资者在风险曲线上走得更远以产生回报。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p><p><blockquote>也许现在的投资者应该坚持喜剧演员威尔·罗杰斯的著名投资建议：“不要赌博；拿出你所有的积蓄，买一些好股票，一直持有到它上涨，然后卖掉它。如果它没有上涨，就不要买它。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——而且选择有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——而且选择有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 20:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>  The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p><p><blockquote><b>基本面尚未适用于美国市场，但这种情况似乎即将改变。</b>冠状病毒大流行对投资者来说非常好，但大多数人现在意识到，股市的非凡表现并不是基于基本面，而基本面在一段时间前就不再重要了。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p><p><blockquote>各国央行一直在通过大规模流动性注入和零利率来推动资产价格。消费和企业盈利受到政府巨额转移支付、财政刺激和行业支持的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>它会持续吗？共识是大多数资产定价过高。价格最终是未来现金流的现值。当局操纵了贴现率，但改变由实体经济驱动的潜在长期现金流更加困难。央行设计的低波动性也鼓励了价格的上涨。在某个阶段，挥霍无度的政府赤字可能会通过减少支出或增加税收来控制。这些政策也可能推动通胀，需要收紧货币政策和提高利率。</blockquote></p><p> Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p><p><blockquote>目前的高股价使投资者面临突然调整的风险，当音乐椅的游戏意外停止时。鉴于几乎所有的收益都是价格而不是收入（股息、利息等）。），脆弱性加剧。金融体系的不稳定结构——高杠杆、影子银行、流动性不足、未解决的联系、跟风投资者的上升——意味着任何问题都可能引发重大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的选择有限。你可以相信“新常态”的持久性。然后，风险资产投资是合理的，因为当局必须确保高且不断上涨的资产价格，主要是因为替代方案太糟糕而无法考虑。这假设策略选项无限期地保持不受约束。</blockquote></p><p> Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p><p><blockquote>或者投资者可以依靠动量，本质上是凯恩斯所谓的投资选美理论，该理论预测了今天的“模因股票”。成功的投资需要投资者在所有评委中选出最受欢迎的面孔，而不是他们个人可能觉得最有吸引力的面孔。困难在于了解法官的想法，并在音乐停止之前识别何时出售。</blockquote></p><p> Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p><p><blockquote>第三，投资者可以将资金存入现金。这意味着可能会在很长一段时间内接受极低的回报，最糟糕的是，错过进一步的收益。</blockquote></p><p> An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p><p><blockquote>另一种选择是防御性地重新定位于在重要行业运营或销售主食的具有可靠收入流的资产或业务。这些传统的“寡妇和孤儿”投资如今更难找到。“安全”政府债券现在收入很少，但风险很高。股票和房地产价格高度相关，反映了投资者行为以及对杠杆的普遍依赖。当杠杆投资者需要筹集现金时，流动性更强、质量更好的资产经常面临抛售压力。今天，就像涨潮托起所有的船一样，退潮让每个人都被困住了。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>第四，投资者可以寻求从通胀上升中受益，转向受益于价格上涨的股票。但对股价的影响将取决于是利润通胀（即终端产品价格上涨）还是成本通胀，包括工资上涨。如果是后者，那么盈利的挤压可能会对股票估值产生不利影响。再加上利率上升，这可能会对股票产生不利影响。另一种选择是通胀挂钩证券，例如国债通胀保值证券(TIPS)TIP，+0.52%或大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p><p><blockquote>第五，投资者可能会“偏离轨道”，认为现有政策不可持续，经济体系已无可挽回地崩溃。这有利于加密货币、贵金属或收藏品——供应自然受到限制的非传统资产。国家没收、征税和监管的能力，以及对法院执行权利的依赖，使这种对自由的追求变得复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p><p><blockquote>超级富豪和一些高净值人士已经通过进入私人市场而脱离了电网。由于担心被操纵和游戏化的市场，他们现在专注于非上市的实体企业和资产以及私人债务，为了更好的经济性、隐私和控制而牺牲流动性和透明度。不幸的是，这些选择对普通人来说是有限的——这是一种不同形式的不平等。</blockquote></p><p> Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者面临着霍布森虚幻的选择，实际上只提供一件事。他们可能会因为押注价格上涨或价格持续上涨而失败。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，政策制定者继续加剧几十年来的错误。他们现在必须继续增加债务并维持低利率，以保持资产价格高位。政府赤字对于维持经济活动至关重要。把罐子踢到路边是确保清算日推迟的唯一方法——NIMTO（不是在我的任期内）。这迫使投资者在风险曲线上走得更远以产生回报。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p><p><blockquote>也许现在的投资者应该坚持喜剧演员威尔·罗杰斯的著名投资建议：“不要赌博；拿出你所有的积蓄，买一些好股票，一直持有到它上涨，然后卖掉它。如果它没有上涨，就不要买它。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188275201,"gmtCreate":1623452884803,"gmtModify":1634033108630,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[嘘]&nbsp;[嘘]&nbsp;[嘘]&nbsp;[嘘]&nbsp;[生病]&nbsp;","listText":"[嘘]&nbsp;[嘘]&nbsp;[嘘]&nbsp;[嘘]&nbsp;[生病]&nbsp;","text":"[嘘] [嘘] [嘘] [嘘] [生病]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188275201","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692809078,"gmtCreate":1640902773400,"gmtModify":1640902773904,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Supports&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Supports&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;[smile]&nbsp;","text":"Supports [smile] [smile] [smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692809078","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850017737,"gmtCreate":1634534766458,"gmtModify":1634534767092,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Supports&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Supports&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Supports [强] [强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850017737","repostId":"1185155570","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185155570","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634511079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185155570?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185155570","media":"Barrons","summary":"Seventy-two S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. ","content":"<p>Seventy-two&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report earnings this week,&nbsp;as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights&nbsp;will include&nbsp;results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.</p><p><blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的临近，本周有72家标准普尔500指数公司公布了财报。美国几家大型银行上周开局良好。本周的财报亮点将包括电信、必需消费品、能源、科技、医疗保健和航空业著名公司的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685ba1e7f4763c12a3c0159fc2469ded\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Albertsons and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter &amp; Gamble,Halliburton,and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by&nbsp;Netflix&nbsp;and&nbsp;United Airlines Holdings&nbsp;after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森(Albertsons)和道富银行(State Street)将于周一启动。宝洁(Procter&amp;Gamble)、哈里伯顿(Halliburton)和强生(Johnson&amp;Johnson)是周二上午的亮点，收盘后紧随其后的是Netflix和联合航空控股(United Airlines Holdings)。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&amp;T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and&nbsp;Chipotle Mexican Grill&nbsp;report on Thursday, then&nbsp;American Express,Schlumberger,and&nbsp;Honeywell International&nbsp;close the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Verizon Communications、IBM和特斯拉将受到最多关注。AT&amp;T、美国航空集团、西南航空和Chipotle Mexican Grill将于周四发布报告，然后美国运通、Schlumberger和Honeywell International将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and&nbsp;IHS Markit’s&nbsp;Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济数据亮点包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会9月份领先经济指数和周五公布的IHS Markit 10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。所有这些都较前几个月的水平有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Other releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布的其他数据包括美联储最新的褐皮书，描述了美国各地的经济状况，以及两个9月份的房地产市场指标：人口普查局（Census Bureau）周二报告新的住宅建设数据，全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）周四报告现房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 10/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一10/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布9月份工业生产数据。继8月份增长0.4%后，经济学家预计增长0.20%。预计9月份产能利用率为76.5%，与8月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> Albertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森、飞利浦、Steel Dynamics和道富银行等公司发布了季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 10/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二10/19</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告9月份新住宅建设数据。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为162.3万套，8月为161.5万套。</blockquote></p><p> Halliburton, Procter &amp; Gamble, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿、宝洁、强生、Synchrony、Travelers、Philip Morris International、Kansas City Southern、WD-40、盈透证券集团、Netflix、万宝盛华、Dover和加拿大国家铁路等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 10/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三10/20</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布了关于央行12个地区当前经济状况的褐皮书。</blockquote></p><p> Abbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室、Biogen、NextEra Energy、ASML Holding、纳斯达克、加拿大太平洋铁路、Verizon Communications、CSX、Lam Research、特斯拉、IBM和Anthem讨论季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 10/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四10/21</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告9月份现房销售情况。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为610万套，而8月份为588万套。</blockquote></p><p> Dow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&amp;T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学、自由港麦克莫兰、原厂零件、西南航空、Valero Energy、Blackstone、Quest Diagnostics、Snap-on、Tractor Supply、Barclays、Danaher、AT&amp;T、Nucor、美国航空集团、AutoNation、Valero Energy、SL Green Realty、英特尔、Snap、Boston Beer、Mattel和Chipotle Mexican Grill在评级举办财报会议，讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Philadelphia Fed</b>&nbsp;diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.</p><p><blockquote><b>费城联储</b>衡量整体制造业活动的扩散指数预计将从9月份的30.7降至10月份的24。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布9月份领先经济指数。继8月份上涨0.90%后，预计上涨0.50%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 10/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五10/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b>&nbsp;the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit发布</b>10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业PMI普遍预期为60.3，服务业PMI预计为54.7，9月份分别为60.7和54.9。</blockquote></p><p> Whirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Whirlpool、Honeywell、Cleveland-Cliffs、Celanese、HCA Healthcare、Schlumberger、Seagate Technology Holdings、VF Corp.和American Express在评级举办投资者大会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-18 06:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Seventy-two&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report earnings this week,&nbsp;as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights&nbsp;will include&nbsp;results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.</p><p><blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的临近，本周有72家标准普尔500指数公司公布了财报。美国几家大型银行上周开局良好。本周的财报亮点将包括电信、必需消费品、能源、科技、医疗保健和航空业著名公司的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685ba1e7f4763c12a3c0159fc2469ded\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Albertsons and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter &amp; Gamble,Halliburton,and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by&nbsp;Netflix&nbsp;and&nbsp;United Airlines Holdings&nbsp;after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森(Albertsons)和道富银行(State Street)将于周一启动。宝洁(Procter&amp;Gamble)、哈里伯顿(Halliburton)和强生(Johnson&amp;Johnson)是周二上午的亮点，收盘后紧随其后的是Netflix和联合航空控股(United Airlines Holdings)。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&amp;T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and&nbsp;Chipotle Mexican Grill&nbsp;report on Thursday, then&nbsp;American Express,Schlumberger,and&nbsp;Honeywell International&nbsp;close the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Verizon Communications、IBM和特斯拉将受到最多关注。AT&amp;T、美国航空集团、西南航空和Chipotle Mexican Grill将于周四发布报告，然后美国运通、Schlumberger和Honeywell International将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and&nbsp;IHS Markit’s&nbsp;Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济数据亮点包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会9月份领先经济指数和周五公布的IHS Markit 10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。所有这些都较前几个月的水平有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Other releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布的其他数据包括美联储最新的褐皮书，描述了美国各地的经济状况，以及两个9月份的房地产市场指标：人口普查局（Census Bureau）周二报告新的住宅建设数据，全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）周四报告现房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 10/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一10/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布9月份工业生产数据。继8月份增长0.4%后，经济学家预计增长0.20%。预计9月份产能利用率为76.5%，与8月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> Albertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森、飞利浦、Steel Dynamics和道富银行等公司发布了季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 10/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二10/19</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告9月份新住宅建设数据。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为162.3万套，8月为161.5万套。</blockquote></p><p> Halliburton, Procter &amp; Gamble, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿、宝洁、强生、Synchrony、Travelers、Philip Morris International、Kansas City Southern、WD-40、盈透证券集团、Netflix、万宝盛华、Dover和加拿大国家铁路等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 10/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三10/20</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布了关于央行12个地区当前经济状况的褐皮书。</blockquote></p><p> Abbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室、Biogen、NextEra Energy、ASML Holding、纳斯达克、加拿大太平洋铁路、Verizon Communications、CSX、Lam Research、特斯拉、IBM和Anthem讨论季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 10/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四10/21</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告9月份现房销售情况。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为610万套，而8月份为588万套。</blockquote></p><p> Dow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&amp;T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学、自由港麦克莫兰、原厂零件、西南航空、Valero Energy、Blackstone、Quest Diagnostics、Snap-on、Tractor Supply、Barclays、Danaher、AT&amp;T、Nucor、美国航空集团、AutoNation、Valero Energy、SL Green Realty、英特尔、Snap、Boston Beer、Mattel和Chipotle Mexican Grill在评级举办财报会议，讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Philadelphia Fed</b>&nbsp;diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.</p><p><blockquote><b>费城联储</b>衡量整体制造业活动的扩散指数预计将从9月份的30.7降至10月份的24。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布9月份领先经济指数。继8月份上涨0.90%后，预计上涨0.50%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 10/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五10/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b>&nbsp;the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit发布</b>10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业PMI普遍预期为60.3，服务业PMI预计为54.7，9月份分别为60.7和54.9。</blockquote></p><p> Whirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Whirlpool、Honeywell、Cleveland-Cliffs、Celanese、HCA Healthcare、Schlumberger、Seagate Technology Holdings、VF Corp.和American Express在评级举办投资者大会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-at-t-netflix-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51634497206?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CMG":"墨式烧烤","NFLX":"奈飞","HAL":"哈里伯顿",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAL":"美国航空","T":"At&T","LUV":"西南航空","TSLA":"特斯拉","IBM":"IBM","INTC":"英特尔","AXP":"美国运通","JNJ":"强生",".DJI":"道琼斯","UAL":"联合大陆航空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-at-t-netflix-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51634497206?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185155570","content_text":"Seventy-two S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights will include results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.\n\nAlbertsons and State Street get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter & Gamble,Halliburton,and Johnson & Johnson are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by Netflix and United Airlines Holdings after the market closes.\nOn Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and Chipotle Mexican Grill report on Thursday, then American Express,Schlumberger,and Honeywell International close the week on Friday.\nEconomic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and IHS Markit’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.\nOther releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.\nMonday 10/18\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.\nAlbertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.\nTuesday 10/19\nThe Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.\nHalliburton, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nWednesday 10/20\nThe Federal Reserve releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.\nAbbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.\nThursday 10/21\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.\nDow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Philadelphia Fed diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.\nFriday 10/22\nIHS Markit releases the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.\nWhirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CMG":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"IBM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AAL":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"HAL":0.9,"AXP":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"T":0.9,"LUV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UAL":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822385363,"gmtCreate":1634091521697,"gmtModify":1634091522281,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes ...","listText":"Likes ...","text":"Likes ...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822385363","repostId":"1189203328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189203328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634087217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189203328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 09:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189203328","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8,","content":"<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 09:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189203328","content_text":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.\nIt is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821967431,"gmtCreate":1633688491388,"gmtModify":1633688498868,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Wow....[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Wow....[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821967431","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。综上所述，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万，而7月和8月平均下降约10万。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。综上所述，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万，而7月和8月平均下降约10万。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868787082,"gmtCreate":1632705757346,"gmtModify":1632798438587,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Supports&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Supports&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Supports [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868787082","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 03:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}