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2021-11-04

[开心]

外媒头条：靴子落地！美联储官宣11月启动减码购债

2021-10-12

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-10

[微笑]

Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍呼吁崩盘 10%-20%——这样保护自己</blockquote>

2021-09-26

Yes 😂

2021-09-25

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-24

[微笑]

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2021-09-22

[微笑]

Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-09-21

[微笑]

Apple Is Working on iPhone Features to Help Detect Depression, Cognitive Decline<blockquote>苹果正在开发 iPhone 功能，以帮助检测抑郁症和认知能力下降</blockquote>

2021-09-17

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-15

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-14

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-11

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-09

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-07

Good[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-06

[微笑]

Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?<blockquote>多头能否挑战九月疲软的可能性？</blockquote>

2021-09-03

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-02

Excellent 😊

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-02

Excellent[微笑]

Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today<blockquote>为什么 ChargePoint Holdings 股价今天走高</blockquote>

2021-09-01

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-30

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

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","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848802863","repostId":"2180676329","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2180676329","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635975540,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2180676329?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 05:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：靴子落地！美联储官宣11月启动减码购债","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180676329","media":"新浪美股","summary":"　　美联储当地时间周三宣布维持基准利率不变，并将很快开始放缓每月债券购买的步伐。　　美联储声明表示，将于11月晚些时候启动缩减购债计划，将每月资产购买规模减少150亿美元；每月国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量分别调整至700亿和350亿美元，此前分别为800亿和400亿美元。　　FOMC表示，此举是“鉴于自去年12月以来经济朝着委员会目标取得的进一步实质性进展”。　　声明强调，美联储并未预设路线，必要时将对该流程进行调整。","content":"<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1、美联储维持基准利率不变 本月晚些时候启动减码购债</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>2、“新兴市场教父”麦朴思：加密货币不是投资 股票是最佳选择</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>3、美国新冠疫情两个月来改善势头遇阻 今冬或遭遇新一轮回升</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>4、美国10月服务业指数升至创纪录高位 但供应链问题仍然严峻</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>5、就业数据还没看到就得做出利率决定 英国央行驶入决策盲区</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>6、盖茨：将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5℃以内恐难实现</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50acb966ae0fa22fd804334cd3285156\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>美联储维持基准利率不变 本月晚些时候启动减码购债</b></p>\n<p>美联储当地时间周三宣布维持基准利率不变，并将很快开始放缓每月债券购买的步伐。</p>\n<p>美联储声明表示，将于11月晚些时候启动缩减购债计划，将每月资产购买规模减少150亿美元；每月国债和抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）购买量分别调整至700亿和350亿美元，此前分别为800亿和400亿美元。此外，12月的国债和MBS购买量分别调整至600亿和300亿美元。</p>\n<p>FOMC表示，此举是“鉴于自去年12月以来经济朝着委员会目标取得的进一步实质性进展”。</p>\n<p>声明强调，美联储并未预设路线，必要时将对该流程进行调整。</p>\n<p>“委员会认为，每个月类似规模地降低净资产购买速度可能是合适的，但如果经济前景发生变化，将准备调整购买速度，”该委员会表示。</p>\n<p>随着缩减购债规模，美联储也略微改变了对通胀的看法，承认物价上涨比官员预测的更快、更持久。声明还强调，投资者不应将减码购债视为加息迫在眉睫的信号。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4296ef7490baf47bf9f8734f1cec72\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>“新兴市场教父”麦朴思：加密货币不是投资 股票是最佳选择</b></p>\n<p>有“新兴市场教父”之称的传奇投资者麦朴思（Mark Mobius）周三称加密货币为一种宗教而非投资。在比特币和以太币的交易价格接近历史高位之际，他加入了数字货币怀疑论者的行列。</p>\n<p>“这不是投资，而是一种宗教，”麦朴思说。</p>\n<p>“人们不应该将这些加密货币视为一种投资手段。这是一种投机和娱乐的方式。之后你必须最终回到股票市场，”他补充道。</p>\n<p>麦朴思并不是唯一一个抨击加密货币的人。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官杰米-戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也曾公开批评比特币，最近称其“一文不值”和“傻瓜的黄金”。</p>\n<p>麦朴思认为，由于货币和通胀因素，股票是最好的选择。</p>\n<p>“股票肯定是答案，因为货币贬值不会消失，这意味着未来通胀将继续以高位运行，”他说。“别忘了美国的货币供应量增长了30%以上。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8011fcea180314cc63811074f3b5a86b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>美国新冠疫情两个月来改善势头遇阻 今冬或遭遇新一轮回升</b></p>\n<p>美国过去两个月的新冠疫情改善可能即将结束，而疫情正成为季节性的潮起潮落。</p>\n<p>这并不是说形势马上就要开始恶化，而是已经停止改善趋势，就像之前几轮一样。与2020年夏季新增病例激增类似，2021年的德尔塔变种浪潮在9月初达到顶峰，随后新增病例、住院和死亡人数出现持续两个月的下降。</p>\n<p>现在，这种改善已经失去了60天来的积极势头，显示出对过去模式的重演。</p>\n<p>许多公共卫生专家现在认为，美国在可预见的未来都将与Covid-19疫情共存，而最新数据并不一定意味着美国正在进入一个独特的危险新阶段。</p>\n<p>一些州--特别是东北部的州--希望非常强的疫苗接种率能够阻止这种病毒。但是，免疫力随着时间推移将如何减弱的问题仍然没有答案。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51a72ca52c715fb00b8c5ff0563a3bed\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>美国10月服务业指数升至创纪录高位 但供应链问题仍然严峻</b></p>\n<p>美国10月服务提供商扩张速度达到创纪录水平，受需求坚挺和商业活动增强提振。</p>\n<p>周三发布的数据显示，供应管理学会（ISM）服务业指数从9月的61.9升至66.7，超过所有经济学家预期。</p>\n<p>新订单和商业活动指标也升至1997年有数据统计以来的最高水平，表明随着新冠疫情的缓解，经济在第四季度初进一步积蓄动能。</p>\n<p>持续的家庭和企业需求也表明推高通胀的供应链问题仍然未有缓和，积压订单指标升至历史新高。</p>\n<p>“需求没有放缓迹象，” ISM服务业调查委员会主席Anthony Nieves发布声明称。“然而，持续的挑战（包括供应链中断和劳动力和材料短缺）正在限制产能并影响整体业务状况。”</p>\n<p>衡量服务提供商对材料和服务支付价格的指标升至2005年9月以来最高水平。供应商交货时间指标攀升至历史次高，表明交货时间延长且产能限制持续。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f3f142c4cf787546aefddb6fbc8d536\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>就业数据还没看到就得做出利率决定 英国央行驶入决策盲区</b></p>\n<p>连英国央行自己都承认，他们正驶入本周利率决策会议的盲区。</p>\n<p>虽然通胀加快攀升，超过了英国央行2%的目标水平，但能显示休假计划结束对就业市场影响的关键数据要到11月16日才会公布。这比本周四中午英国央行将于伦敦发布的利率声明要晚12天。</p>\n<p>在就利率做出决定之前，英国央行的官员们不会有机会看到英国国家统计局定于周四早间公布的一项调查。该项调查将显示，在休假计划结束之时，估计人数在100万的工人的休假状况。政府有关该计划最后一个月情况的数据也定于周四发布，也来得太晚。</p>\n<p>然而，货币政策委员会9月曾表示，关系其利率决定的一个关键问题是“经济将如何适应休假计划的结束、失业率变化的影响、就业和劳动力匹配困难的持续性。”</p>\n<p>就业市场情况不明是导致经济学家在本周是否会加息的问题上出现分歧的原因之一。持续的劳动力供应短缺将对工资构成上行压力，在这一点上，英国央行将很难将其视为“暂时的”现象。</p>\n<p>市场正在押注加息15个基点，以应对可能达到5%的通胀率。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5053415982afaf36cf9d6fb9415a68f1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>盖茨：将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5℃以内恐难实现</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>创始人比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）今日表示，能否将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5℃以内，这是是值得怀疑的。这表明，要实现全球气候目标，还有许多工作要做。</p>\n<p>盖茨是在《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十六次缔约方大会（COP26）上接受采访时发表上述言论的。在2015年签署的《巴黎协定》中，各国领导人表示，他们“致力于实现将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在低于工业化水平前2摄氏度的水平，并努力将其控制在1.5℃的水平”。</p>\n<p>盖茨说：“可以说，这一切都是关于‘温度’的问题。控制在2.5℃以内，肯定比3℃以内要好；控制在2℃以内，要比2.5℃要好，以此类推。但是，这将是非常困难的，我怀疑我们能否做到这一点。”</p>\n<p>1.5℃的门槛，是一个关键的全球目标，因为超过这一水平，所谓的“临界点”就更有可能出现。就气候系统来说， 临界点指的是全球或区域气候从一种稳定状态到另外一种稳定状态的关键门槛。临界点是不可逆的，一旦触发临界点，系统可能会很快变坏。</p>\n<p>虽然如此，盖茨也同时指出：“人类在应对气候变化方面所取得的成就是前所未有的。”</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：靴子落地！美联储官宣11月启动减码购债</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：靴子落地！美联储官宣11月启动减码购债\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 05:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-04/doc-iktzscyy3510508.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美联储维持基准利率不变 本月晚些时候启动减码购债\n\n\n2、“新兴市场教父”麦朴思：加密货币不是投资 股票是最佳选择\n\n\n3、美国新冠疫情两个月来改善势头遇阻 今冬或遭遇新一轮回升\n\n\n4、美国10月服务业指数升至创纪录高位 但供应链问题仍然严峻\n\n\n5、就业数据还没看到就得做出利率决定 英国央行驶入决策盲区\n\n\n6、盖茨：将全球变暖幅度控制在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-04/doc-iktzscyy3510508.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-04/doc-iktzscyy3510508.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2180676329","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美联储维持基准利率不变 本月晚些时候启动减码购债\n\n\n2、“新兴市场教父”麦朴思：加密货币不是投资 股票是最佳选择\n\n\n3、美国新冠疫情两个月来改善势头遇阻 今冬或遭遇新一轮回升\n\n\n4、美国10月服务业指数升至创纪录高位 但供应链问题仍然严峻\n\n\n5、就业数据还没看到就得做出利率决定 英国央行驶入决策盲区\n\n\n6、盖茨：将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5℃以内恐难实现\n\n\n美联储维持基准利率不变 本月晚些时候启动减码购债\n美联储当地时间周三宣布维持基准利率不变，并将很快开始放缓每月债券购买的步伐。\n美联储声明表示，将于11月晚些时候启动缩减购债计划，将每月资产购买规模减少150亿美元；每月国债和抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）购买量分别调整至700亿和350亿美元，此前分别为800亿和400亿美元。此外，12月的国债和MBS购买量分别调整至600亿和300亿美元。\nFOMC表示，此举是“鉴于自去年12月以来经济朝着委员会目标取得的进一步实质性进展”。\n声明强调，美联储并未预设路线，必要时将对该流程进行调整。\n“委员会认为，每个月类似规模地降低净资产购买速度可能是合适的，但如果经济前景发生变化，将准备调整购买速度，”该委员会表示。\n随着缩减购债规模，美联储也略微改变了对通胀的看法，承认物价上涨比官员预测的更快、更持久。声明还强调，投资者不应将减码购债视为加息迫在眉睫的信号。\n\n“新兴市场教父”麦朴思：加密货币不是投资 股票是最佳选择\n有“新兴市场教父”之称的传奇投资者麦朴思（Mark Mobius）周三称加密货币为一种宗教而非投资。在比特币和以太币的交易价格接近历史高位之际，他加入了数字货币怀疑论者的行列。\n“这不是投资，而是一种宗教，”麦朴思说。\n“人们不应该将这些加密货币视为一种投资手段。这是一种投机和娱乐的方式。之后你必须最终回到股票市场，”他补充道。\n麦朴思并不是唯一一个抨击加密货币的人。摩根大通首席执行官杰米-戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也曾公开批评比特币，最近称其“一文不值”和“傻瓜的黄金”。\n麦朴思认为，由于货币和通胀因素，股票是最好的选择。\n“股票肯定是答案，因为货币贬值不会消失，这意味着未来通胀将继续以高位运行，”他说。“别忘了美国的货币供应量增长了30%以上。”\n\n美国新冠疫情两个月来改善势头遇阻 今冬或遭遇新一轮回升\n美国过去两个月的新冠疫情改善可能即将结束，而疫情正成为季节性的潮起潮落。\n这并不是说形势马上就要开始恶化，而是已经停止改善趋势，就像之前几轮一样。与2020年夏季新增病例激增类似，2021年的德尔塔变种浪潮在9月初达到顶峰，随后新增病例、住院和死亡人数出现持续两个月的下降。\n现在，这种改善已经失去了60天来的积极势头，显示出对过去模式的重演。\n许多公共卫生专家现在认为，美国在可预见的未来都将与Covid-19疫情共存，而最新数据并不一定意味着美国正在进入一个独特的危险新阶段。\n一些州--特别是东北部的州--希望非常强的疫苗接种率能够阻止这种病毒。但是，免疫力随着时间推移将如何减弱的问题仍然没有答案。\n\n美国10月服务业指数升至创纪录高位 但供应链问题仍然严峻\n美国10月服务提供商扩张速度达到创纪录水平，受需求坚挺和商业活动增强提振。\n周三发布的数据显示，供应管理学会（ISM）服务业指数从9月的61.9升至66.7，超过所有经济学家预期。\n新订单和商业活动指标也升至1997年有数据统计以来的最高水平，表明随着新冠疫情的缓解，经济在第四季度初进一步积蓄动能。\n持续的家庭和企业需求也表明推高通胀的供应链问题仍然未有缓和，积压订单指标升至历史新高。\n“需求没有放缓迹象，” ISM服务业调查委员会主席Anthony Nieves发布声明称。“然而，持续的挑战（包括供应链中断和劳动力和材料短缺）正在限制产能并影响整体业务状况。”\n衡量服务提供商对材料和服务支付价格的指标升至2005年9月以来最高水平。供应商交货时间指标攀升至历史次高，表明交货时间延长且产能限制持续。\n\n就业数据还没看到就得做出利率决定 英国央行驶入决策盲区\n连英国央行自己都承认，他们正驶入本周利率决策会议的盲区。\n虽然通胀加快攀升，超过了英国央行2%的目标水平，但能显示休假计划结束对就业市场影响的关键数据要到11月16日才会公布。这比本周四中午英国央行将于伦敦发布的利率声明要晚12天。\n在就利率做出决定之前，英国央行的官员们不会有机会看到英国国家统计局定于周四早间公布的一项调查。该项调查将显示，在休假计划结束之时，估计人数在100万的工人的休假状况。政府有关该计划最后一个月情况的数据也定于周四发布，也来得太晚。\n然而，货币政策委员会9月曾表示，关系其利率决定的一个关键问题是“经济将如何适应休假计划的结束、失业率变化的影响、就业和劳动力匹配困难的持续性。”\n就业市场情况不明是导致经济学家在本周是否会加息的问题上出现分歧的原因之一。持续的劳动力供应短缺将对工资构成上行压力，在这一点上，英国央行将很难将其视为“暂时的”现象。\n市场正在押注加息15个基点，以应对可能达到5%的通胀率。\n\n盖茨：将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5℃以内恐难实现\n微软创始人比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）今日表示，能否将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5℃以内，这是是值得怀疑的。这表明，要实现全球气候目标，还有许多工作要做。\n盖茨是在《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十六次缔约方大会（COP26）上接受采访时发表上述言论的。在2015年签署的《巴黎协定》中，各国领导人表示，他们“致力于实现将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在低于工业化水平前2摄氏度的水平，并努力将其控制在1.5℃的水平”。\n盖茨说：“可以说，这一切都是关于‘温度’的问题。控制在2.5℃以内，肯定比3℃以内要好；控制在2℃以内，要比2.5℃要好，以此类推。但是，这将是非常困难的，我怀疑我们能否做到这一点。”\n1.5℃的门槛，是一个关键的全球目标，因为超过这一水平，所谓的“临界点”就更有可能出现。就气候系统来说， 临界点指的是全球或区域气候从一种稳定状态到另外一种稳定状态的关键门槛。临界点是不可逆的，一旦触发临界点，系统可能会很快变坏。\n虽然如此，盖茨也同时指出：“人类在应对气候变化方面所取得的成就是前所未有的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826514134,"gmtCreate":1634037327182,"gmtModify":1634037327309,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826514134","repostId":"1190496303","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828991583,"gmtCreate":1633830442585,"gmtModify":1633830442693,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828991583","repostId":"1190298937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190298937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787347,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190298937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍呼吁崩盘 10%-20%——这样保护自己</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190298937","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.\nThat makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief i","content":"<p>Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.</p><p><blockquote>增长放缓和金融环境收紧。</blockquote></p><p> That makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.</p><p><blockquote>这让摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊上周在给客户的一份说明中写道：”简而言之，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的股价。“其次，即使整体股市走低，它们也可能意味着价值高于增长”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson 在最近的一次采访中还表示，由于盈利预期过高，该公司 10%-20% 的调整看涨期权将由科技股引领。</blockquote></p><p> Within that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，威尔逊建议投资者青睐医疗保健、必需消费品和金融等防御性行业。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下这些领域的一些可能的游戏——其中一个可能值得用你的零钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)</p><p><blockquote>1. 金融：美国银行（BAC）</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，美国银行简化和完善了其业务实践和运营，从美国评级最低的银行之一上升到资产第二大银行（总资产约 2.3 万亿美元）。摩根大通拥有3万亿美元的资产，是最大的。</blockquote></p><p> As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从疫情中复苏，通胀继续飙升，利率可能会上升，使央行处于继续取得成功的有利地位。银行通过更广泛的“利差”（即支付给客户的利息与投资收入之间的差额）从更高的利率中受益。</blockquote></p><p> And despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上季度的盈利水平没有达到预期，但美国银行还是向股东提高了股息，将其收益率从每股 18 美分提高了 17%，达到 21 美分。目前，这些股票的股息率为 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)</p><p><blockquote>2. 必需消费品：百事可乐（PEP）</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐不仅仅是一个主要的可乐和汽水品牌。大多数消费者都会意识到激浪和佳得乐属于百事可乐的保护伞。</blockquote></p><p> But this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.</p><p><blockquote>但这家食品和饮料巨头还拥有菲多利、桂格食品、纯果乐、SodaStream和全球数十个其他品牌。</blockquote></p><p> With everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于每个人都花了这么多时间在家，疫情期间零食消费量大幅上升——这对百事可乐来说是个好消息。7 月份，该公司报告称净销售额同比增长超过 20%，达到 192.2 亿美元，远高于 180 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> And the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过健康的股息将一些甜蜜（或咸味，取决于你的口味）传递给股东，多年来股息一直在稳步增长。过去十年，百事可乐的股息复合增长率为 7.7%，而其主要竞争对手可口可乐的股息复合增长率为 6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司股票的股息率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Health care: Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)</p><p><blockquote>3. 医疗保健：强生公司（JNJ）</blockquote></p><p> Between its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson &amp; Johnson has become a household name.</p><p><blockquote>在医疗器械、药品和消费品包装业务之间，强生已成为家喻户晓的名字。</blockquote></p><p> And more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean &amp; Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.</p><p><blockquote>不仅如此，其众多子公司，包括创可贴、泰诺、露得清、李施德林和Clean &amp; Clear，都可以独立成为成功的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.</p><p><blockquote>强生在医疗保健领域的多元化控股确保了其能够度过任何经济衰退。强生制药公司旗下拥有少数行业领先的免疫学和癌症治疗药物，强生公司拥有大量的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第二季度的业绩得益于全年 COVID-19 注射的 125.9 亿美元收入，仅第二季度的全球销售额就达到了 1.64 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.</p><p><blockquote>JNJ 第三季度派发了 1.06 美元的股息，高于六个月前的 1.01 美元，与股东分享了其成功。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前的股息率为2.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍呼吁崩盘 10%-20%——这样保护自己</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍呼吁崩盘 10%-20%——这样保护自己</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.</p><p><blockquote>增长放缓和金融环境收紧。</blockquote></p><p> That makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.</p><p><blockquote>这让摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊上周在给客户的一份说明中写道：”简而言之，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的股价。“其次，即使整体股市走低，它们也可能意味着价值高于增长”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson 在最近的一次采访中还表示，由于盈利预期过高，该公司 10%-20% 的调整看涨期权将由科技股引领。</blockquote></p><p> Within that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，威尔逊建议投资者青睐医疗保健、必需消费品和金融等防御性行业。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下这些领域的一些可能的游戏——其中一个可能值得用你的零钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)</p><p><blockquote>1. 金融：美国银行（BAC）</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，美国银行简化和完善了其业务实践和运营，从美国评级最低的银行之一上升到资产第二大银行（总资产约 2.3 万亿美元）。摩根大通拥有3万亿美元的资产，是最大的。</blockquote></p><p> As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从疫情中复苏，通胀继续飙升，利率可能会上升，使央行处于继续取得成功的有利地位。银行通过更广泛的“利差”（即支付给客户的利息与投资收入之间的差额）从更高的利率中受益。</blockquote></p><p> And despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上季度的盈利水平没有达到预期，但美国银行还是向股东提高了股息，将其收益率从每股 18 美分提高了 17%，达到 21 美分。目前，这些股票的股息率为 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)</p><p><blockquote>2. 必需消费品：百事可乐（PEP）</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐不仅仅是一个主要的可乐和汽水品牌。大多数消费者都会意识到激浪和佳得乐属于百事可乐的保护伞。</blockquote></p><p> But this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.</p><p><blockquote>但这家食品和饮料巨头还拥有菲多利、桂格食品、纯果乐、SodaStream和全球数十个其他品牌。</blockquote></p><p> With everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于每个人都花了这么多时间在家，疫情期间零食消费量大幅上升——这对百事可乐来说是个好消息。7 月份，该公司报告称净销售额同比增长超过 20%，达到 192.2 亿美元，远高于 180 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> And the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过健康的股息将一些甜蜜（或咸味，取决于你的口味）传递给股东，多年来股息一直在稳步增长。过去十年，百事可乐的股息复合增长率为 7.7%，而其主要竞争对手可口可乐的股息复合增长率为 6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司股票的股息率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Health care: Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)</p><p><blockquote>3. 医疗保健：强生公司（JNJ）</blockquote></p><p> Between its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson &amp; Johnson has become a household name.</p><p><blockquote>在医疗器械、药品和消费品包装业务之间，强生已成为家喻户晓的名字。</blockquote></p><p> And more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean &amp; Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.</p><p><blockquote>不仅如此，其众多子公司，包括创可贴、泰诺、露得清、李施德林和Clean &amp; Clear，都可以独立成为成功的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.</p><p><blockquote>强生在医疗保健领域的多元化控股确保了其能够度过任何经济衰退。强生制药公司旗下拥有少数行业领先的免疫学和癌症治疗药物，强生公司拥有大量的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第二季度的业绩得益于全年 COVID-19 注射的 125.9 亿美元收入，仅第二季度的全球销售额就达到了 1.64 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.</p><p><blockquote>JNJ 第三季度派发了 1.06 美元的股息，高于六个月前的 1.01 美元，与股东分享了其成功。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前的股息率为2.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-still-calling-10-120000250.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","PEP":"百事可乐","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-still-calling-10-120000250.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190298937","content_text":"Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.\nThat makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.\n“In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.\nWithin that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.\nLet's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.\n1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)\nOver the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.\nAs the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.\nAnd despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.\n2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)\nPepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.\nBut this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.\nWith everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.\nAnd the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.\nPepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.\n3. Health care: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)\nBetween its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson & Johnson has become a household name.\nAnd more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean & Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.\nJNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.\nThe company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.\nJNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.\nThe stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"PEP":0.9,"JNJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868259819,"gmtCreate":1632660368531,"gmtModify":1632798728301,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes 😂","listText":"Yes 😂","text":"Yes 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868259819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868961144,"gmtCreate":1632576959988,"gmtModify":1632655832864,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868961144","repostId":"2170611559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861810450,"gmtCreate":1632480565670,"gmtModify":1632719527591,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861810450","repostId":"2169469055","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869480367,"gmtCreate":1632316771759,"gmtModify":1632801310144,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869480367","repostId":"1144673393","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144673393","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632312079,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144673393?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 20:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144673393","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"House Dems pass bill to avoid shutdown, suspend debt limit.Pfizer provides 500 million more Covid vaccine doses to U.S. for donation. The nation’s largest banks are asking an international body of regulators to give them the space to grow their crypto asset exposures, sparking debate over where guardrails should be placed on the emerging asset class.At 08:03 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 189 points, or 0.56%, S&P 500 e-minis gained 23.5 points, or 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis jumped 47.5 points,","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures gain ahead of Fed decision.</li>  <li>House Dems pass bill to avoid shutdown, suspend debt limit.</li>  <li>Pfizer provides 500 million more Covid vaccine doses to U.S. for donation.</li>  <li>Commodities rallied while the dollar was steady.</li> </ul> (Sept 22)&nbsp;The nation’s largest banks are asking an international body of regulators to give them the space to grow their crypto asset exposures, sparking debate over where guardrails should be placed on the emerging asset class.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在美联储做出决定之前，股票期货上涨。</li><li>众议院民主党人通过法案避免关闭，暂停债务限制。</li><li>辉瑞公司向美国捐赠了5亿剂新冠疫苗。</li><li>大宗商品上涨，而美元保持稳定。</li></ul>(9 月 22 日）美国最大的银行要求国际监管机构给予它们增加加密资产敞口的空间，这引发了关于应在哪里对这一新兴资产类别设置护栏的争论。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:03 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 189 points, or 0.56%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis gained 23.5 points, or 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis jumped 47.5&nbsp;points, or 0.32%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 08:03，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 189 点，涨幅 0.56%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 23.5 点，涨幅 0.54%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 47.5 点，涨幅 0.32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d8e953a71ca0b637329c25532e7182\" tg-width=\"1224\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a> shares slid 6.2% premarket.&nbsp;The delivery giant spent an additional $450 million tied to&nbsp;problems attracting workers&nbsp;in its latest quarter, contributing to an 11% drop in profit. RivalUPSwas also down, by 2.5%.</li>  <li>Shares of&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">Stitch Fix Inc.</a> were looking spiffy with a 13% premarket jump. The online personal shopping and styling service reached $2 billion in annual sales for the first time.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">General Mills</a> shares rose 1.7% after the maker of grocery staples like Cheerios, Häagen-Dazs and Betty Crocker said it expects changes in consumer behavior brought on by the pandemic to result in continued high demand for food at home.</li>  <li>Crude prices gained more than 1%, and oil producers were riding the coattails.Occidental Petroleumadded 1.9% premarket, Devon Energy gained 1.8% andDiamondback Energyrose 2%.</li>  <li>Sometimes an earnings beat isn’t enough. Software companyAdobereported higher profit and record revenue in the latest period, but its stock was down 3.7% premarket.</li>  <li>Marin Software surged over 80% in premarket trading</li>  <li>Bitcoin was up 2.7%, a move that has often boosted the stock ofCoinbase Global—but premarket the cryptocurrency exchange added a more muted 0.2%. Perhaps investors are still licking their wounds after the companyscrapped its plans for a lending programthat had provoked threats of regulatory action.</li>  <li>Black&nbsp;Berryand&nbsp;KB Home&nbsp;are among the companies reporting earnings after Wednesday’s close.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>commodity currencies rallied as concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt troubles eased as China’s central bank boosted liquidity and investors reviewed a statement from the troubled developer about an interest payment. Overnight implied volatility on the pound climbed to the highest since March ahead of Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. The British pound weakened after Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng&nbsp;warnedthat people should prepare for longer-term high energy prices amid a natural-gas shortage that sent power costs soaring. Several U.K. power firms have stopped taking in new clients as small energy suppliers struggle to meet their previous commitments to sell supplies at lower prices.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>盘前股价下跌 6.2%。这家快递巨头在最近一个季度因吸引工人问题而额外花费了 4.5 亿美元，导致利润下降 11%。Rivalups 也下跌了 2.5%。</li><li>股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">缝合修复公司。</a>看起来很好，盘前上涨了 13%。在线个人购物和造型服务的年销售额首次达到20亿美元。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">通用磨坊</a>麦片、哈根达斯和贝蒂·克罗克等主食杂货制造商表示，预计疫情带来的消费者行为变化将导致家庭食品需求持续旺盛，该公司股价上涨 1.7%。</li><li>原油价格上涨超过 1%，石油生产商紧随其后。西方石油公司盘前上涨 1.9%，德文能源公司上涨 1.8%，响尾蛇能源公司上涨 2%。</li><li>有时候，仅仅盈利是不够的。软件公司 Adobe 报告最近一段时间利润增加，收入创历史新高，但其股价盘前下跌 3.7%。</li><li>Marin Software 盘前交易飙升超过 80%</li><li>比特币上涨 2.7%，这一举措通常会提振 Coinbase Global 的股价，但盘前这家加密货币交易所上涨了 0.2%，涨幅较为温和。在该公司取消了引发监管行动威胁的贷款计划后，投资者可能仍在舔舐伤口。</li><li>Black Berry 和 KB Home 等公司在周三收盘后公布了财报。</li></ul><b>在外汇中，</b>随着中国央行增加流动性，以及投资者审查了这家陷入困境的开发商关于支付利息的声明，对中国恒大集团债务问题的担忧有所缓解，大宗商品货币反弹。在英国央行周四召开会议之前，英镑隔夜隐含波动率攀升至 3 月份以来的最高水平。在商务大臣夸西·夸滕警告称，在天然气短缺导致电力成本飙升的情况下，人们应该为长期高能源价格做好准备后，英镑走弱。由于小型能源供应商难以履行之前以较低价格出售电力供应的承诺，几家英国电力公司已停止接收新客户。</blockquote></p><p> Overnight volatility in the euro rises above 10% for the first time since July ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision announcement. The Aussie jumped as much as 0.5% as iron-ore prices rebounded. Spot surged through option-related selling at 0.7240 before topping out near 0.7265 strikes expiring Wednesday, according to Asia- based FX traders.&nbsp; Elsewhere, the yen weakened and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar pushed higher.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储宣布货币政策决定之前，欧元隔夜波动率自 7 月以来首次升至 10% 以上。随着铁矿石价格反弹，澳元上涨0.5%。据亚洲外汇交易员称，现货在期权相关抛售中飙升至0.7240，然后在周三到期的0.7265附近触顶。在其他地方，日元走软，澳元等与大宗商品挂钩的货币走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasury futures were under modest pressure in early U.S. trading, leaving yields cheaper by ~1.5bp from belly to long-end of the curve. The 10-year yield was at ~1.336% steepening the 2s10s curve by ~1bp as the front-end was little changed. Improved risk appetite weighed; with stock futures have recovering much of Tuesday’s losses as Evergrande concerns subside. Focal point for Wednesday’s session is FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET.&nbsp;&nbsp; FOMC is expected to suggest it will start scaling back asset purchases later this year, while its quarterly summary of economic projections reveals policy makers’ expectations for the fed funds target in coming years in the dot-plot update; eurodollar positions have emerged recently that anticipate a hawkish shift</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率上，</b>美元兑10国集团大多数货币走弱。美国早盘交易中，国债期货承受温和压力，导致收益率从曲线腹部到长端便宜约 1.5bp。10年期收益率约为1.336%，使2s10s曲线陡峭约1bp，因为前端变化不大。加权风险偏好提高；随着对恒大的担忧消退，股票期货已经收复了周二的大部分失地。周三会议的焦点是美国东部时间下午 2 点的联邦公开市场委员会利率决定。预计联邦公开市场委员会将表示将在今年晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模，而其季度经济预测摘要则在点阵图更新中揭示了政策制定者对未来几年美联储资金目标的预期；最近出现了预计鹰派转变的欧洲美元头寸</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped briefly below $40,000 for the first time since August amid rising criticism from regulators, before rallying as the mood in global markets improved.</p><p><blockquote>由于监管机构的批评越来越多，比特币股价自 8 月份以来首次短暂跌破 4 万美元，随后随着全球市场情绪的改善而反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> Iron ore halted its collapse and metals steadied. Oil advanced for a second day.&nbsp;Bitcoin&nbsp;slid below $40,000 for the first time since early August before rebounding back above $42,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品方面，</b>铁矿石停止崩溃，金属企稳。油价连续第二天上涨。比特币自8月初以来首次跌破4万美元，随后反弹至4.2万美元上方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get US existing home sales for August, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的一天，主要亮点将是上述美联储的决定和鲍威尔主席随后的新闻发布会。此外，在数据方面，我们将获得 8 月份的成屋销售数据，以及欧盟委员会 9 月份欧元区消费者信心预测数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-22 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures gain ahead of Fed decision.</li>  <li>House Dems pass bill to avoid shutdown, suspend debt limit.</li>  <li>Pfizer provides 500 million more Covid vaccine doses to U.S. for donation.</li>  <li>Commodities rallied while the dollar was steady.</li> </ul> (Sept 22)&nbsp;The nation’s largest banks are asking an international body of regulators to give them the space to grow their crypto asset exposures, sparking debate over where guardrails should be placed on the emerging asset class.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在美联储做出决定之前，股票期货上涨。</li><li>众议院民主党人通过法案避免关闭，暂停债务限制。</li><li>辉瑞公司向美国捐赠了5亿剂新冠疫苗。</li><li>大宗商品上涨，而美元保持稳定。</li></ul>(9 月 22 日）美国最大的银行要求国际监管机构给予它们增加加密资产敞口的空间，这引发了关于应在哪里对这一新兴资产类别设置护栏的争论。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:03 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 189 points, or 0.56%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis gained 23.5 points, or 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis jumped 47.5&nbsp;points, or 0.32%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 08:03，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 189 点，涨幅 0.56%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 23.5 点，涨幅 0.54%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 47.5 点，涨幅 0.32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d8e953a71ca0b637329c25532e7182\" tg-width=\"1224\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a> shares slid 6.2% premarket.&nbsp;The delivery giant spent an additional $450 million tied to&nbsp;problems attracting workers&nbsp;in its latest quarter, contributing to an 11% drop in profit. RivalUPSwas also down, by 2.5%.</li>  <li>Shares of&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">Stitch Fix Inc.</a> were looking spiffy with a 13% premarket jump. The online personal shopping and styling service reached $2 billion in annual sales for the first time.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">General Mills</a> shares rose 1.7% after the maker of grocery staples like Cheerios, Häagen-Dazs and Betty Crocker said it expects changes in consumer behavior brought on by the pandemic to result in continued high demand for food at home.</li>  <li>Crude prices gained more than 1%, and oil producers were riding the coattails.Occidental Petroleumadded 1.9% premarket, Devon Energy gained 1.8% andDiamondback Energyrose 2%.</li>  <li>Sometimes an earnings beat isn’t enough. Software companyAdobereported higher profit and record revenue in the latest period, but its stock was down 3.7% premarket.</li>  <li>Marin Software surged over 80% in premarket trading</li>  <li>Bitcoin was up 2.7%, a move that has often boosted the stock ofCoinbase Global—but premarket the cryptocurrency exchange added a more muted 0.2%. Perhaps investors are still licking their wounds after the companyscrapped its plans for a lending programthat had provoked threats of regulatory action.</li>  <li>Black&nbsp;Berryand&nbsp;KB Home&nbsp;are among the companies reporting earnings after Wednesday’s close.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>commodity currencies rallied as concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt troubles eased as China’s central bank boosted liquidity and investors reviewed a statement from the troubled developer about an interest payment. Overnight implied volatility on the pound climbed to the highest since March ahead of Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. The British pound weakened after Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng&nbsp;warnedthat people should prepare for longer-term high energy prices amid a natural-gas shortage that sent power costs soaring. Several U.K. power firms have stopped taking in new clients as small energy suppliers struggle to meet their previous commitments to sell supplies at lower prices.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>盘前股价下跌 6.2%。这家快递巨头在最近一个季度因吸引工人问题而额外花费了 4.5 亿美元，导致利润下降 11%。Rivalups 也下跌了 2.5%。</li><li>股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">缝合修复公司。</a>看起来很好，盘前上涨了 13%。在线个人购物和造型服务的年销售额首次达到20亿美元。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">通用磨坊</a>麦片、哈根达斯和贝蒂·克罗克等主食杂货制造商表示，预计疫情带来的消费者行为变化将导致家庭食品需求持续旺盛，该公司股价上涨 1.7%。</li><li>原油价格上涨超过 1%，石油生产商紧随其后。西方石油公司盘前上涨 1.9%，德文能源公司上涨 1.8%，响尾蛇能源公司上涨 2%。</li><li>有时候，仅仅盈利是不够的。软件公司 Adobe 报告最近一段时间利润增加，收入创历史新高，但其股价盘前下跌 3.7%。</li><li>Marin Software 盘前交易飙升超过 80%</li><li>比特币上涨 2.7%，这一举措通常会提振 Coinbase Global 的股价，但盘前这家加密货币交易所上涨了 0.2%，涨幅较为温和。在该公司取消了引发监管行动威胁的贷款计划后，投资者可能仍在舔舐伤口。</li><li>Black Berry 和 KB Home 等公司在周三收盘后公布了财报。</li></ul><b>在外汇中，</b>随着中国央行增加流动性，以及投资者审查了这家陷入困境的开发商关于支付利息的声明，对中国恒大集团债务问题的担忧有所缓解，大宗商品货币反弹。在英国央行周四召开会议之前，英镑隔夜隐含波动率攀升至 3 月份以来的最高水平。在商务大臣夸西·夸滕警告称，在天然气短缺导致电力成本飙升的情况下，人们应该为长期高能源价格做好准备后，英镑走弱。由于小型能源供应商难以履行之前以较低价格出售电力供应的承诺，几家英国电力公司已停止接收新客户。</blockquote></p><p> Overnight volatility in the euro rises above 10% for the first time since July ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision announcement. The Aussie jumped as much as 0.5% as iron-ore prices rebounded. Spot surged through option-related selling at 0.7240 before topping out near 0.7265 strikes expiring Wednesday, according to Asia- based FX traders.&nbsp; Elsewhere, the yen weakened and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar pushed higher.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储宣布货币政策决定之前，欧元隔夜波动率自 7 月以来首次升至 10% 以上。随着铁矿石价格反弹，澳元上涨0.5%。据亚洲外汇交易员称，现货在期权相关抛售中飙升至0.7240，然后在周三到期的0.7265附近触顶。在其他地方，日元走软，澳元等与大宗商品挂钩的货币走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasury futures were under modest pressure in early U.S. trading, leaving yields cheaper by ~1.5bp from belly to long-end of the curve. The 10-year yield was at ~1.336% steepening the 2s10s curve by ~1bp as the front-end was little changed. Improved risk appetite weighed; with stock futures have recovering much of Tuesday’s losses as Evergrande concerns subside. Focal point for Wednesday’s session is FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET.&nbsp;&nbsp; FOMC is expected to suggest it will start scaling back asset purchases later this year, while its quarterly summary of economic projections reveals policy makers’ expectations for the fed funds target in coming years in the dot-plot update; eurodollar positions have emerged recently that anticipate a hawkish shift</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率上，</b>美元兑10国集团大多数货币走弱。美国早盘交易中，国债期货承受温和压力，导致收益率从曲线腹部到长端便宜约 1.5bp。10年期收益率约为1.336%，使2s10s曲线陡峭约1bp，因为前端变化不大。加权风险偏好提高；随着对恒大的担忧消退，股票期货已经收复了周二的大部分失地。周三会议的焦点是美国东部时间下午 2 点的联邦公开市场委员会利率决定。预计联邦公开市场委员会将表示将在今年晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模，而其季度经济预测摘要则在点阵图更新中揭示了政策制定者对未来几年美联储资金目标的预期；最近出现了预计鹰派转变的欧洲美元头寸</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped briefly below $40,000 for the first time since August amid rising criticism from regulators, before rallying as the mood in global markets improved.</p><p><blockquote>由于监管机构的批评越来越多，比特币股价自 8 月份以来首次短暂跌破 4 万美元，随后随着全球市场情绪的改善而反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> Iron ore halted its collapse and metals steadied. Oil advanced for a second day.&nbsp;Bitcoin&nbsp;slid below $40,000 for the first time since early August before rebounding back above $42,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品方面，</b>铁矿石停止崩溃，金属企稳。油价连续第二天上涨。比特币自8月初以来首次跌破4万美元，随后反弹至4.2万美元上方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get US existing home sales for August, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的一天，主要亮点将是上述美联储的决定和鲍威尔主席随后的新闻发布会。此外，在数据方面，我们将获得 8 月份的成屋销售数据，以及欧盟委员会 9 月份欧元区消费者信心预测数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144673393","content_text":"Stock futures gain ahead of Fed decision.\nHouse Dems pass bill to avoid shutdown, suspend debt limit.\nPfizer provides 500 million more Covid vaccine doses to U.S. for donation.\nCommodities rallied while the dollar was steady.\n\n(Sept 22) The nation’s largest banks are asking an international body of regulators to give them the space to grow their crypto asset exposures, sparking debate over where guardrails should be placed on the emerging asset class.\nAt 08:03 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 189 points, or 0.56%, S&P 500 e-minis gained 23.5 points, or 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis jumped 47.5 points, or 0.32%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\n\nFedEx shares slid 6.2% premarket. The delivery giant spent an additional $450 million tied to problems attracting workers in its latest quarter, contributing to an 11% drop in profit. RivalUPSwas also down, by 2.5%.\nShares of Stitch Fix Inc. were looking spiffy with a 13% premarket jump. The online personal shopping and styling service reached $2 billion in annual sales for the first time.\nGeneral Mills shares rose 1.7% after the maker of grocery staples like Cheerios, Häagen-Dazs and Betty Crocker said it expects changes in consumer behavior brought on by the pandemic to result in continued high demand for food at home.\nCrude prices gained more than 1%, and oil producers were riding the coattails.Occidental Petroleumadded 1.9% premarket, Devon Energy gained 1.8% andDiamondback Energyrose 2%.\nSometimes an earnings beat isn’t enough. Software companyAdobereported higher profit and record revenue in the latest period, but its stock was down 3.7% premarket.\nMarin Software surged over 80% in premarket trading\nBitcoin was up 2.7%, a move that has often boosted the stock ofCoinbase Global—but premarket the cryptocurrency exchange added a more muted 0.2%. Perhaps investors are still licking their wounds after the companyscrapped its plans for a lending programthat had provoked threats of regulatory action.\nBlack Berryand KB Home are among the companies reporting earnings after Wednesday’s close.\n\nIn FX, commodity currencies rallied as concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt troubles eased as China’s central bank boosted liquidity and investors reviewed a statement from the troubled developer about an interest payment. Overnight implied volatility on the pound climbed to the highest since March ahead of Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. The British pound weakened after Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng warnedthat people should prepare for longer-term high energy prices amid a natural-gas shortage that sent power costs soaring. Several U.K. power firms have stopped taking in new clients as small energy suppliers struggle to meet their previous commitments to sell supplies at lower prices.\nOvernight volatility in the euro rises above 10% for the first time since July ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision announcement. The Aussie jumped as much as 0.5% as iron-ore prices rebounded. Spot surged through option-related selling at 0.7240 before topping out near 0.7265 strikes expiring Wednesday, according to Asia- based FX traders.  Elsewhere, the yen weakened and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar pushed higher.\nIn rates, the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasury futures were under modest pressure in early U.S. trading, leaving yields cheaper by ~1.5bp from belly to long-end of the curve. The 10-year yield was at ~1.336% steepening the 2s10s curve by ~1bp as the front-end was little changed. Improved risk appetite weighed; with stock futures have recovering much of Tuesday’s losses as Evergrande concerns subside. Focal point for Wednesday’s session is FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET.   FOMC is expected to suggest it will start scaling back asset purchases later this year, while its quarterly summary of economic projections reveals policy makers’ expectations for the fed funds target in coming years in the dot-plot update; eurodollar positions have emerged recently that anticipate a hawkish shift\nBitcoin dropped briefly below $40,000 for the first time since August amid rising criticism from regulators, before rallying as the mood in global markets improved.\nIn commodities, Iron ore halted its collapse and metals steadied. Oil advanced for a second day. Bitcoin slid below $40,000 for the first time since early August before rebounding back above $42,000.\nTo the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get US existing home sales for August, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869006638,"gmtCreate":1632223470024,"gmtModify":1632801981831,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869006638","repostId":"1128468134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128468134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632222896,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128468134?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-21 19:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Is Working on iPhone Features to Help Detect Depression, Cognitive Decline<blockquote>苹果正在开发 iPhone 功能，以帮助检测抑郁症和认知能力下降</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128468134","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Company is working with UCLA, Biogen to see if sensitive data like facial expressions, typing metric","content":"<p>  <b>Company is working with UCLA, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a> to see if sensitive data like facial expressions, typing metrics could signal mental-health concerns.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc. is working on technology to help diagnose depression and cognitive decline, aiming for tools that could expand the scope of its burgeoning health portfolio, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote><b>公司正在与加州大学洛杉矶分校合作，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">百健</a>为了了解面部表情、打字指标等敏感数据是否可以表明心理健康问题。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>据知情人士和《华尔街日报》查阅的文件称，该公司正在研究帮助诊断抑郁症和认知能力下降的技术，旨在开发可以扩大其蓬勃发展的健康产品组合范围的工具。</blockquote></p><p> Using an array of sensor data that includes mobility, physical activity, sleep patterns, typing behavior and more, researchers hope they can tease out digital signals associated with the target conditions so that algorithms can be created to detect them reliably, the people said. Apple hopes that would become the basis for unique features for its devices, according to the people and documents.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，利用一系列传感器数据，包括移动性、身体活动、睡眠模式、打字行为等，研究人员希望能够梳理出与目标条件相关的数字信号，以便创建算法来可靠地检测它们。据知情人士和文件称，苹果希望这将成为其设备独特功能的基础。</blockquote></p><p> The efforts spring from research partnerships that Apple has announced with the University of California, Los Angeles, which is studying stress, anxiety and depression, and pharmaceutical companyBiogenInc.,BIIB-0.57%which is studying mild cognitive impairment. “Seabreeze” is Apple’s code name for the UCLA project and “Pi” is the code name for the Biogen project, according to the people and documents.</p><p><blockquote>这些努力源于苹果宣布与研究压力、焦虑和抑郁的加州大学洛杉矶分校以及研究轻度认知障碍的制药公司 BiogenInc., BIIB-0.57% 建立的研究合作伙伴关系。根据这些人物和文件，“Seabreeze ”是苹果加州大学洛杉矶分校项目的代号，“Pi ”是百健项目的代号。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen launched its study on Monday, but many of the details about Apple’s studies haven’t been reported. The pharmaceutical company received approval this summer from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a new drug totreat mild cognitive impairment.</p><p><blockquote>百健公司于周一启动了这项研究，但苹果研究的许多细节尚未报道。这家制药公司今年夏天获得了美国的批准。美国食品药品监督管理局申请一种治疗轻度认知障碍的新药。</blockquote></p><p> Representatives for Apple, Biogen and UCLA declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果、百健和加州大学洛杉矶分校的代表拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> Much of Apple’s past health work has focused onfeatures for its smartwatch. The mental-health and cognitive-decline research leverages more-sensitive iPhone data and shows Apple’s health unit is now looking at features for the company’s flagship product, according to people familiar with the plans.</p><p><blockquote>苹果过去的大部分健康工作都集中在智能手表的功能上。据熟悉该计划的人士透露，这项关于心理健康和认知能力下降的研究利用了更敏感的 iPhone 数据，显示苹果的健康部门目前正在研究该公司旗舰产品的功能。</blockquote></p><p> The research projects are still at early stages, and may never lead to new device features, the people said. While prior academic studies have shown some evidence that people with certain mental-health conditions use their digital devices differently than others, it remains to be seen if reliable algorithms can be created to detect the conditions, according to researchers.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，研究项目仍处于早期阶段，可能永远不会带来新的设备功能。研究人员表示，虽然之前的学术研究显示了一些证据，表明患有某些精神健康状况的人使用数字设备的方式与其他人不同，但是否可以创建可靠的算法来检测这些状况还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Proper diagnosis of mental-health conditions and brain disorders typically requires close observation by specialists, but many people have no access to such specialists. Researchers working with Apple hope their work leads to a widely available alternative.</p><p><blockquote>精神健康状况和大脑疾病的正确诊断通常需要专家的密切观察，但许多人无法接触到这样的专家。与苹果合作的研究人员希望他们的工作能带来一种广泛可用的替代方案。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the effort is at an early stage, top Apple executives are excited about the possibility. Chief Operating Officer Jeff <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>, who oversees Apple’s health unit, has spoken enthusiastically to employees about the company’s potential to address surging rates of depression and anxiety as well as other brain disorders, according to people who have heard him talk about the efforts.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这一努力还处于早期阶段，但苹果的高层管理人员对这种可能性感到兴奋。首席运营官杰夫<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>据听过苹果公司卫生部门负责人的人说，他热情地向员工们讲述了公司在解决抑郁症和焦虑症以及其他脑部疾病发病率飙升方面的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> If they are successful, Apple and its partners could improve the detection of the conditions, which affect tens of millions of people world-wide. But the extent of user tracking that may be required could spark privacy concerns. To address them, Apple aims for algorithms that work on users’ devices and don’t send the data to Apple servers, the documents show.</p><p><blockquote>如果成功，苹果及其合作伙伴可以改善对影响全球数千万人的疾病的检测。但可能需要的用户跟踪程度可能会引发隐私问题。文件显示，为了解决这些问题，苹果的目标是开发能够在用户设备上工作的算法，而不是将数据发送到苹果服务器。</blockquote></p><p> Achieving its health ambitions could depend on consumers’ trusting Apple with sensitive data, underscoring why privacy is a business imperative for the company. The new research comes as Apple faces intense scrutiny over how it planned to access user data towarn authorities of child pornography, which raised new concerns about the company’s commitment to privacy after years of battles against governments seeking to access their customers’ devices.</p><p><blockquote>实现其健康目标可能取决于消费者对拥有敏感数据的苹果的信任，这也凸显了为什么隐私对公司来说是当务之急。这项新研究出台之际，苹果正面临着对其计划如何获取儿童色情制品当局用户数据的严格审查，这引发了人们对该公司在与试图获取其客户设备的政府斗争多年后对隐私承诺的新担忧。</blockquote></p><p> The company has said privacy remains paramount, arguing the anti-child-pornography initiative is meant to guard against intrusion while also combating the exploitation of children. Apple has said it isslowing the effort.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，隐私仍然至关重要，认为反儿童色情制品倡议旨在防止入侵，同时打击对儿童的剥削。苹果表示正在放缓这一努力。</blockquote></p><p> Scores of companies are chasing the opportunity in the broader digital behavioral-health sector, where startups are on pace this year to nearly double the record $2.7 billion in financing raised in 2020, according to Rock Health, a venture-investment and advisory firm.</p><p><blockquote>据风险投资和咨询公司 Rock Health 称，数十家公司正在更广泛的数字行为健康领域寻找机会，该领域的初创公司今年有望将 2020 年创纪录的 27 亿美元融资额翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> The pandemic drove an increase in mental-health-related complaints. The percentage of adults reporting anxiety or depression-related symptoms reached 41% in January, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly quadruple the early-2019 figure. Mild cognitive impairment, which can develop into dementia, affects around 5 million Americans over 60 years old, estimates the Alzheimer’s Association.</p><p><blockquote>疫情导致心理健康相关投诉增加。根据凯泽家庭基金会的数据，1月份报告焦虑或抑郁相关症状的成年人比例达到41%，几乎是2019年初数字的四倍。据阿尔茨海默氏症协会估计，约有 500 万 60 岁以上的美国人患有轻度认知障碍，可能会发展成痴呆症。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple has a third brain-related research partnership with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRE\">Duke</a> University that it hasn’t disclosed. It aims to create an algorithm to help detect childhood autism, according to the documents and people familiar with the work. The research looks at using the iPhone’s camera to observe how young children focus, how often they sway back and forth, and other measures, according to the documents.</p><p><blockquote>苹果与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRE\">公爵</a>大学尚未披露。根据文件和熟悉这项工作的人，它旨在创建一种算法来帮助检测儿童自闭症。文件显示，这项研究着眼于使用 iPhone 的摄像头来观察幼儿的注意力、前后摇晃的频率以及其他测量结果。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has developed previous health features after working with researchers. For example, work at Stanford University showed that its smartwatch could identify an irregular heart rhythm known as atrial fibrillation. Soon after Apple added a watch feature to do so.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在与研究人员合作后开发了以前的健康功能。例如，斯坦福大学的研究表明，其智能手表可以识别被称为心房颤动的不规则心律。不久之后，苹果增加了一个手表功能。</blockquote></p><p> UCLA has said its research studying signs of stress, anxiety and depression began with a pilot phase last fall tracking Apple Watch and iPhone data from 150 people and will continue with a main phase tracking similar data for 3,000 people starting this year.</p><p><blockquote>加州大学洛杉矶分校表示，其研究压力、焦虑和抑郁迹象的研究始于去年秋天的试点阶段，跟踪了150人的苹果手表和iPhone数据，并将从今年开始继续进行主要阶段，跟踪3000人的类似数据。</blockquote></p><p> UCLA researchers will track data from the iPhone’s video camera, keyboard and audio sensors, and data from the watch related to movement, vital signs and sleep, according to the documents and people familiar with the study. The data that may be used includes analysis of participants’ facial expressions, how they speak, the pace and frequency of their walks, sleep patterns, and heart and respiration rates. They may also measure the speed of their typing, frequency of their typos and content of what they type, among other data points, according to the people familiar with the research and the documents.</p><p><blockquote>据文件和熟悉这项研究的人士透露，加州大学洛杉矶分校的研究人员将跟踪 iPhone 摄像头、键盘和音频传感器的数据，以及手表中与运动、生命体征和睡眠相关的数据。可能使用的数据包括对参与者面部表情、说话方式、行走速度和频率、睡眠模式以及心率和呼吸频率的分析。据熟悉这项研究和文件的人士称，他们还可以测量打字速度、错别字的频率和打字内容等数据点。</blockquote></p><p> Each bit of data could give researchers clues about device users’ emotions, concentration, energy level, state of mind and more, according to the people and the documents.</p><p><blockquote>根据这些人物和文件，每一点数据都能为研究人员提供有关设备用户情绪、注意力、能量水平、精神状态等方面的线索。</blockquote></p><p> To compare this data with other measures of stress, anxiety or depression, the researchers are having participants complete questionnaires about how they feel, according to people familiar with the work and the documents. They are also looking at the amount of the stress hormone cortisol in follicles of participants’ hair, according to the documents and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of these people.</p><p><blockquote>据熟悉这项工作和文件的人士透露，为了将这些数据与其他衡量压力、焦虑或抑郁的指标进行比较，研究人员让参与者填写了关于他们感受的问卷。文件显示，他们还在研究参与者毛囊中压力激素皮质醇的含量。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这些人。</blockquote></p><p> If the research finds that any of that data correlates with relevant mental-health conditions, the hope is to turn those signals into an app or feature that could warn people they might be at risk and prompt them to seek care, according to the documents and people familiar with the work.</p><p><blockquote>文件和熟悉这项工作的人士表示，如果研究发现其中任何数据与相关的心理健康状况相关，希望将这些信号转化为一个应用程序或功能，可以警告人们他们可能处于危险之中，并提示他们寻求护理。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen and Apple said in January they are collaborating on a study to use the iPhone and Apple Watch to track cognitive function over time and identify mild cognitive impairment, a condition that can develop into Alzheimer’s. The two-year study aims to follow about 20,000 participants—half of them at high risk of cognitive impairment—and will use device data in a way similar to the UCLA mental-health research, according to the documents and people familiar with the matter. The work follows a 2019 feasibility study that showed that 31 adults with cognitive impairment exhibited different behavior on their Apple devices than healthy older adults.</p><p><blockquote>百健和苹果今年 1 月表示，他们正在合作开展一项研究，利用 iPhone 和苹果手表来跟踪认知功能随时间的推移，并识别轻度认知障碍，这种疾病可能会发展成阿尔茨海默氏症。据文件和知情人士透露，这项为期两年的研究旨在跟踪约 20,000 名参与者（其中一半有认知障碍的高风险），并将以类似于加州大学洛杉矶分校心理健康研究的方式使用设备数据。这项工作是在2019年的一项可行性研究之后进行的，该研究显示，31名患有认知障碍的成年人在苹果设备上表现出与健康老年人不同的行为。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen is collaborating on the study because it hopes it can help Apple develop an iPhone feature to detect mild cognitive impairment early and encourage relevant users to seek care earlier, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company will compare the data against standard tests of brain health including traditional cognitive assessments and scans that track plaque buildup in the brain, according to the documents and the person familiar with the work.</p><p><blockquote>据一位知情人士透露，百健（Biogen）正在合作开展这项研究，因为它希望能够帮助苹果开发一项iPhone功能，以便及早发现轻度认知障碍，并鼓励相关用户尽早寻求护理。据文件和知情人士透露，该公司将把这些数据与大脑健康的标准测试进行比较，包括传统的认知评估和跟踪大脑中斑块堆积的扫描。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen’s drug Aduhelm, whichcosts about $56,000 a year, was approved earlier this year by the FDA for people with early-stage Alzheimer’s.</p><p><blockquote>Biogen 的药物 Aduhelm 每年的成本约为 5.6 万美元，今年早些时候获得了 FDA 的批准，用于治疗早期阿尔茨海默氏症患者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Is Working on iPhone Features to Help Detect Depression, Cognitive Decline<blockquote>苹果正在开发 iPhone 功能，以帮助检测抑郁症和认知能力下降</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Is Working on iPhone Features to Help Detect Depression, Cognitive Decline<blockquote>苹果正在开发 iPhone 功能，以帮助检测抑郁症和认知能力下降</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-21 19:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Company is working with UCLA, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a> to see if sensitive data like facial expressions, typing metrics could signal mental-health concerns.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc. is working on technology to help diagnose depression and cognitive decline, aiming for tools that could expand the scope of its burgeoning health portfolio, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote><b>公司正在与加州大学洛杉矶分校合作，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">百健</a>为了了解面部表情、打字指标等敏感数据是否可以表明心理健康问题。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>据知情人士和《华尔街日报》查阅的文件称，该公司正在研究帮助诊断抑郁症和认知能力下降的技术，旨在开发可以扩大其蓬勃发展的健康产品组合范围的工具。</blockquote></p><p> Using an array of sensor data that includes mobility, physical activity, sleep patterns, typing behavior and more, researchers hope they can tease out digital signals associated with the target conditions so that algorithms can be created to detect them reliably, the people said. Apple hopes that would become the basis for unique features for its devices, according to the people and documents.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，利用一系列传感器数据，包括移动性、身体活动、睡眠模式、打字行为等，研究人员希望能够梳理出与目标条件相关的数字信号，以便创建算法来可靠地检测它们。据知情人士和文件称，苹果希望这将成为其设备独特功能的基础。</blockquote></p><p> The efforts spring from research partnerships that Apple has announced with the University of California, Los Angeles, which is studying stress, anxiety and depression, and pharmaceutical companyBiogenInc.,BIIB-0.57%which is studying mild cognitive impairment. “Seabreeze” is Apple’s code name for the UCLA project and “Pi” is the code name for the Biogen project, according to the people and documents.</p><p><blockquote>这些努力源于苹果宣布与研究压力、焦虑和抑郁的加州大学洛杉矶分校以及研究轻度认知障碍的制药公司 BiogenInc., BIIB-0.57% 建立的研究合作伙伴关系。根据这些人物和文件，“Seabreeze ”是苹果加州大学洛杉矶分校项目的代号，“Pi ”是百健项目的代号。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen launched its study on Monday, but many of the details about Apple’s studies haven’t been reported. The pharmaceutical company received approval this summer from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a new drug totreat mild cognitive impairment.</p><p><blockquote>百健公司于周一启动了这项研究，但苹果研究的许多细节尚未报道。这家制药公司今年夏天获得了美国的批准。美国食品药品监督管理局申请一种治疗轻度认知障碍的新药。</blockquote></p><p> Representatives for Apple, Biogen and UCLA declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果、百健和加州大学洛杉矶分校的代表拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> Much of Apple’s past health work has focused onfeatures for its smartwatch. The mental-health and cognitive-decline research leverages more-sensitive iPhone data and shows Apple’s health unit is now looking at features for the company’s flagship product, according to people familiar with the plans.</p><p><blockquote>苹果过去的大部分健康工作都集中在智能手表的功能上。据熟悉该计划的人士透露，这项关于心理健康和认知能力下降的研究利用了更敏感的 iPhone 数据，显示苹果的健康部门目前正在研究该公司旗舰产品的功能。</blockquote></p><p> The research projects are still at early stages, and may never lead to new device features, the people said. While prior academic studies have shown some evidence that people with certain mental-health conditions use their digital devices differently than others, it remains to be seen if reliable algorithms can be created to detect the conditions, according to researchers.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，研究项目仍处于早期阶段，可能永远不会带来新的设备功能。研究人员表示，虽然之前的学术研究显示了一些证据，表明患有某些精神健康状况的人使用数字设备的方式与其他人不同，但是否可以创建可靠的算法来检测这些状况还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Proper diagnosis of mental-health conditions and brain disorders typically requires close observation by specialists, but many people have no access to such specialists. Researchers working with Apple hope their work leads to a widely available alternative.</p><p><blockquote>精神健康状况和大脑疾病的正确诊断通常需要专家的密切观察，但许多人无法接触到这样的专家。与苹果合作的研究人员希望他们的工作能带来一种广泛可用的替代方案。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the effort is at an early stage, top Apple executives are excited about the possibility. Chief Operating Officer Jeff <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>, who oversees Apple’s health unit, has spoken enthusiastically to employees about the company’s potential to address surging rates of depression and anxiety as well as other brain disorders, according to people who have heard him talk about the efforts.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这一努力还处于早期阶段，但苹果的高层管理人员对这种可能性感到兴奋。首席运营官杰夫<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>据听过苹果公司卫生部门负责人的人说，他热情地向员工们讲述了公司在解决抑郁症和焦虑症以及其他脑部疾病发病率飙升方面的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> If they are successful, Apple and its partners could improve the detection of the conditions, which affect tens of millions of people world-wide. But the extent of user tracking that may be required could spark privacy concerns. To address them, Apple aims for algorithms that work on users’ devices and don’t send the data to Apple servers, the documents show.</p><p><blockquote>如果成功，苹果及其合作伙伴可以改善对影响全球数千万人的疾病的检测。但可能需要的用户跟踪程度可能会引发隐私问题。文件显示，为了解决这些问题，苹果的目标是开发能够在用户设备上工作的算法，而不是将数据发送到苹果服务器。</blockquote></p><p> Achieving its health ambitions could depend on consumers’ trusting Apple with sensitive data, underscoring why privacy is a business imperative for the company. The new research comes as Apple faces intense scrutiny over how it planned to access user data towarn authorities of child pornography, which raised new concerns about the company’s commitment to privacy after years of battles against governments seeking to access their customers’ devices.</p><p><blockquote>实现其健康目标可能取决于消费者对拥有敏感数据的苹果的信任，这也凸显了为什么隐私对公司来说是当务之急。这项新研究出台之际，苹果正面临着对其计划如何获取儿童色情制品当局用户数据的严格审查，这引发了人们对该公司在与试图获取其客户设备的政府斗争多年后对隐私承诺的新担忧。</blockquote></p><p> The company has said privacy remains paramount, arguing the anti-child-pornography initiative is meant to guard against intrusion while also combating the exploitation of children. Apple has said it isslowing the effort.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，隐私仍然至关重要，认为反儿童色情制品倡议旨在防止入侵，同时打击对儿童的剥削。苹果表示正在放缓这一努力。</blockquote></p><p> Scores of companies are chasing the opportunity in the broader digital behavioral-health sector, where startups are on pace this year to nearly double the record $2.7 billion in financing raised in 2020, according to Rock Health, a venture-investment and advisory firm.</p><p><blockquote>据风险投资和咨询公司 Rock Health 称，数十家公司正在更广泛的数字行为健康领域寻找机会，该领域的初创公司今年有望将 2020 年创纪录的 27 亿美元融资额翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> The pandemic drove an increase in mental-health-related complaints. The percentage of adults reporting anxiety or depression-related symptoms reached 41% in January, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly quadruple the early-2019 figure. Mild cognitive impairment, which can develop into dementia, affects around 5 million Americans over 60 years old, estimates the Alzheimer’s Association.</p><p><blockquote>疫情导致心理健康相关投诉增加。根据凯泽家庭基金会的数据，1月份报告焦虑或抑郁相关症状的成年人比例达到41%，几乎是2019年初数字的四倍。据阿尔茨海默氏症协会估计，约有 500 万 60 岁以上的美国人患有轻度认知障碍，可能会发展成痴呆症。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple has a third brain-related research partnership with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRE\">Duke</a> University that it hasn’t disclosed. It aims to create an algorithm to help detect childhood autism, according to the documents and people familiar with the work. The research looks at using the iPhone’s camera to observe how young children focus, how often they sway back and forth, and other measures, according to the documents.</p><p><blockquote>苹果与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRE\">公爵</a>大学尚未披露。根据文件和熟悉这项工作的人，它旨在创建一种算法来帮助检测儿童自闭症。文件显示，这项研究着眼于使用 iPhone 的摄像头来观察幼儿的注意力、前后摇晃的频率以及其他测量结果。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has developed previous health features after working with researchers. For example, work at Stanford University showed that its smartwatch could identify an irregular heart rhythm known as atrial fibrillation. Soon after Apple added a watch feature to do so.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在与研究人员合作后开发了以前的健康功能。例如，斯坦福大学的研究表明，其智能手表可以识别被称为心房颤动的不规则心律。不久之后，苹果增加了一个手表功能。</blockquote></p><p> UCLA has said its research studying signs of stress, anxiety and depression began with a pilot phase last fall tracking Apple Watch and iPhone data from 150 people and will continue with a main phase tracking similar data for 3,000 people starting this year.</p><p><blockquote>加州大学洛杉矶分校表示，其研究压力、焦虑和抑郁迹象的研究始于去年秋天的试点阶段，跟踪了150人的苹果手表和iPhone数据，并将从今年开始继续进行主要阶段，跟踪3000人的类似数据。</blockquote></p><p> UCLA researchers will track data from the iPhone’s video camera, keyboard and audio sensors, and data from the watch related to movement, vital signs and sleep, according to the documents and people familiar with the study. The data that may be used includes analysis of participants’ facial expressions, how they speak, the pace and frequency of their walks, sleep patterns, and heart and respiration rates. They may also measure the speed of their typing, frequency of their typos and content of what they type, among other data points, according to the people familiar with the research and the documents.</p><p><blockquote>据文件和熟悉这项研究的人士透露，加州大学洛杉矶分校的研究人员将跟踪 iPhone 摄像头、键盘和音频传感器的数据，以及手表中与运动、生命体征和睡眠相关的数据。可能使用的数据包括对参与者面部表情、说话方式、行走速度和频率、睡眠模式以及心率和呼吸频率的分析。据熟悉这项研究和文件的人士称，他们还可以测量打字速度、错别字的频率和打字内容等数据点。</blockquote></p><p> Each bit of data could give researchers clues about device users’ emotions, concentration, energy level, state of mind and more, according to the people and the documents.</p><p><blockquote>根据这些人物和文件，每一点数据都能为研究人员提供有关设备用户情绪、注意力、能量水平、精神状态等方面的线索。</blockquote></p><p> To compare this data with other measures of stress, anxiety or depression, the researchers are having participants complete questionnaires about how they feel, according to people familiar with the work and the documents. They are also looking at the amount of the stress hormone cortisol in follicles of participants’ hair, according to the documents and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of these people.</p><p><blockquote>据熟悉这项工作和文件的人士透露，为了将这些数据与其他衡量压力、焦虑或抑郁的指标进行比较，研究人员让参与者填写了关于他们感受的问卷。文件显示，他们还在研究参与者毛囊中压力激素皮质醇的含量。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这些人。</blockquote></p><p> If the research finds that any of that data correlates with relevant mental-health conditions, the hope is to turn those signals into an app or feature that could warn people they might be at risk and prompt them to seek care, according to the documents and people familiar with the work.</p><p><blockquote>文件和熟悉这项工作的人士表示，如果研究发现其中任何数据与相关的心理健康状况相关，希望将这些信号转化为一个应用程序或功能，可以警告人们他们可能处于危险之中，并提示他们寻求护理。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen and Apple said in January they are collaborating on a study to use the iPhone and Apple Watch to track cognitive function over time and identify mild cognitive impairment, a condition that can develop into Alzheimer’s. The two-year study aims to follow about 20,000 participants—half of them at high risk of cognitive impairment—and will use device data in a way similar to the UCLA mental-health research, according to the documents and people familiar with the matter. The work follows a 2019 feasibility study that showed that 31 adults with cognitive impairment exhibited different behavior on their Apple devices than healthy older adults.</p><p><blockquote>百健和苹果今年 1 月表示，他们正在合作开展一项研究，利用 iPhone 和苹果手表来跟踪认知功能随时间的推移，并识别轻度认知障碍，这种疾病可能会发展成阿尔茨海默氏症。据文件和知情人士透露，这项为期两年的研究旨在跟踪约 20,000 名参与者（其中一半有认知障碍的高风险），并将以类似于加州大学洛杉矶分校心理健康研究的方式使用设备数据。这项工作是在2019年的一项可行性研究之后进行的，该研究显示，31名患有认知障碍的成年人在苹果设备上表现出与健康老年人不同的行为。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen is collaborating on the study because it hopes it can help Apple develop an iPhone feature to detect mild cognitive impairment early and encourage relevant users to seek care earlier, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company will compare the data against standard tests of brain health including traditional cognitive assessments and scans that track plaque buildup in the brain, according to the documents and the person familiar with the work.</p><p><blockquote>据一位知情人士透露，百健（Biogen）正在合作开展这项研究，因为它希望能够帮助苹果开发一项iPhone功能，以便及早发现轻度认知障碍，并鼓励相关用户尽早寻求护理。据文件和知情人士透露，该公司将把这些数据与大脑健康的标准测试进行比较，包括传统的认知评估和跟踪大脑中斑块堆积的扫描。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen’s drug Aduhelm, whichcosts about $56,000 a year, was approved earlier this year by the FDA for people with early-stage Alzheimer’s.</p><p><blockquote>Biogen 的药物 Aduhelm 每年的成本约为 5.6 万美元，今年早些时候获得了 FDA 的批准，用于治疗早期阿尔茨海默氏症患者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-wants-iphones-to-help-detect-depression-cognitive-decline-sources-say-11632216601?mod=hp_lead_pos7\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-wants-iphones-to-help-detect-depression-cognitive-decline-sources-say-11632216601?mod=hp_lead_pos7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128468134","content_text":"Company is working with UCLA, Biogen to see if sensitive data like facial expressions, typing metrics could signal mental-health concerns.\n\nApple Inc. is working on technology to help diagnose depression and cognitive decline, aiming for tools that could expand the scope of its burgeoning health portfolio, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.\nUsing an array of sensor data that includes mobility, physical activity, sleep patterns, typing behavior and more, researchers hope they can tease out digital signals associated with the target conditions so that algorithms can be created to detect them reliably, the people said. Apple hopes that would become the basis for unique features for its devices, according to the people and documents.\nThe efforts spring from research partnerships that Apple has announced with the University of California, Los Angeles, which is studying stress, anxiety and depression, and pharmaceutical companyBiogenInc.,BIIB-0.57%which is studying mild cognitive impairment. “Seabreeze” is Apple’s code name for the UCLA project and “Pi” is the code name for the Biogen project, according to the people and documents.\nBiogen launched its study on Monday, but many of the details about Apple’s studies haven’t been reported. The pharmaceutical company received approval this summer from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a new drug totreat mild cognitive impairment.\nRepresentatives for Apple, Biogen and UCLA declined to comment.\nMuch of Apple’s past health work has focused onfeatures for its smartwatch. The mental-health and cognitive-decline research leverages more-sensitive iPhone data and shows Apple’s health unit is now looking at features for the company’s flagship product, according to people familiar with the plans.\nThe research projects are still at early stages, and may never lead to new device features, the people said. While prior academic studies have shown some evidence that people with certain mental-health conditions use their digital devices differently than others, it remains to be seen if reliable algorithms can be created to detect the conditions, according to researchers.\nProper diagnosis of mental-health conditions and brain disorders typically requires close observation by specialists, but many people have no access to such specialists. Researchers working with Apple hope their work leads to a widely available alternative.\nEven though the effort is at an early stage, top Apple executives are excited about the possibility. Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams, who oversees Apple’s health unit, has spoken enthusiastically to employees about the company’s potential to address surging rates of depression and anxiety as well as other brain disorders, according to people who have heard him talk about the efforts.\nIf they are successful, Apple and its partners could improve the detection of the conditions, which affect tens of millions of people world-wide. But the extent of user tracking that may be required could spark privacy concerns. To address them, Apple aims for algorithms that work on users’ devices and don’t send the data to Apple servers, the documents show.\nAchieving its health ambitions could depend on consumers’ trusting Apple with sensitive data, underscoring why privacy is a business imperative for the company. The new research comes as Apple faces intense scrutiny over how it planned to access user data towarn authorities of child pornography, which raised new concerns about the company’s commitment to privacy after years of battles against governments seeking to access their customers’ devices.\nThe company has said privacy remains paramount, arguing the anti-child-pornography initiative is meant to guard against intrusion while also combating the exploitation of children. Apple has said it isslowing the effort.\nScores of companies are chasing the opportunity in the broader digital behavioral-health sector, where startups are on pace this year to nearly double the record $2.7 billion in financing raised in 2020, according to Rock Health, a venture-investment and advisory firm.\nThe pandemic drove an increase in mental-health-related complaints. The percentage of adults reporting anxiety or depression-related symptoms reached 41% in January, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly quadruple the early-2019 figure. Mild cognitive impairment, which can develop into dementia, affects around 5 million Americans over 60 years old, estimates the Alzheimer’s Association.\nApple has a third brain-related research partnership with Duke University that it hasn’t disclosed. It aims to create an algorithm to help detect childhood autism, according to the documents and people familiar with the work. The research looks at using the iPhone’s camera to observe how young children focus, how often they sway back and forth, and other measures, according to the documents.\nApple has developed previous health features after working with researchers. For example, work at Stanford University showed that its smartwatch could identify an irregular heart rhythm known as atrial fibrillation. Soon after Apple added a watch feature to do so.\nUCLA has said its research studying signs of stress, anxiety and depression began with a pilot phase last fall tracking Apple Watch and iPhone data from 150 people and will continue with a main phase tracking similar data for 3,000 people starting this year.\nUCLA researchers will track data from the iPhone’s video camera, keyboard and audio sensors, and data from the watch related to movement, vital signs and sleep, according to the documents and people familiar with the study. The data that may be used includes analysis of participants’ facial expressions, how they speak, the pace and frequency of their walks, sleep patterns, and heart and respiration rates. They may also measure the speed of their typing, frequency of their typos and content of what they type, among other data points, according to the people familiar with the research and the documents.\nEach bit of data could give researchers clues about device users’ emotions, concentration, energy level, state of mind and more, according to the people and the documents.\nTo compare this data with other measures of stress, anxiety or depression, the researchers are having participants complete questionnaires about how they feel, according to people familiar with the work and the documents. They are also looking at the amount of the stress hormone cortisol in follicles of participants’ hair, according to the documents and one of these people.\nIf the research finds that any of that data correlates with relevant mental-health conditions, the hope is to turn those signals into an app or feature that could warn people they might be at risk and prompt them to seek care, according to the documents and people familiar with the work.\nBiogen and Apple said in January they are collaborating on a study to use the iPhone and Apple Watch to track cognitive function over time and identify mild cognitive impairment, a condition that can develop into Alzheimer’s. The two-year study aims to follow about 20,000 participants—half of them at high risk of cognitive impairment—and will use device data in a way similar to the UCLA mental-health research, according to the documents and people familiar with the matter. The work follows a 2019 feasibility study that showed that 31 adults with cognitive impairment exhibited different behavior on their Apple devices than healthy older adults.\nBiogen is collaborating on the study because it hopes it can help Apple develop an iPhone feature to detect mild cognitive impairment early and encourage relevant users to seek care earlier, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company will compare the data against standard tests of brain health including traditional cognitive assessments and scans that track plaque buildup in the brain, according to the documents and the person familiar with the work.\nBiogen’s drug Aduhelm, whichcosts about $56,000 a year, was approved earlier this year by the FDA for people with early-stage Alzheimer’s.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884821166,"gmtCreate":1631880669055,"gmtModify":1631891570589,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884821166","repostId":"2168552491","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882541262,"gmtCreate":1631711406356,"gmtModify":1631891570592,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882541262","repostId":"1197984444","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882080597,"gmtCreate":1631630982219,"gmtModify":1631891570595,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882080597","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881120116,"gmtCreate":1631318291235,"gmtModify":1631891570600,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881120116","repostId":"2166374904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883034477,"gmtCreate":1631187566999,"gmtModify":1631891570601,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883034477","repostId":"1118129823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880081324,"gmtCreate":1630999852268,"gmtModify":1631891570603,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Good[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Good[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880081324","repostId":"2165880909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817853294,"gmtCreate":1630934492118,"gmtModify":1631891570605,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559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20:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?<blockquote>多头能否挑战九月疲软的可能性？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136345203","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the ","content":"<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our&nbsp;<i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i>&nbsp;on Wednesday:</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们之前讨论过 8 月份往往是一年中最疲软的月份之一，但多头将这种疲软定义为上涨了近 3%。然而，正如我们在<i><b>每日市场评论</b></i>周三：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月份的季节性表现不佳，市场上涨了 2.6%。9 月份的季节性会更准确吗？”</i></blockquote></p><p> For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p><p><blockquote>目前，看涨偏见依然强烈，因为从 GDP 到制造业和就业等一系列弱于预期的经济数据给美联储可能阻止其<i>“锥形”</i>计划。但是，正如我们稍后会讨论的，我们认为多头可能出于不同的原因是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> However, in the meantime, the&nbsp;<i>“stairstep”</i>&nbsp;advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market.&nbsp;<b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与此同时，<i>“楼梯”</i>随着投机取代市场投资，基本面疲软的公司大幅上涨，市场继续上涨。<b>因此，尽管价格仍然高企，但现金流却在减弱，这表明下一次经济衰退大约还有一到两周的时间。</b>到目前为止，这些修正仍仅限于 50-dma，比周五收盘价低约 3%，但对 200-dma 进行 10% 的修正仍有可能。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p><p><blockquote>虽然市场在过去一年中的上涨似乎没有什么令人担忧的地方，但鉴于市场上涨的幅度，也许这应该是令人担忧的地方。我将在即将发表的文章中讨论 “市场融化 ”的历史及其最终结果。然而，需要注意的是，随着盈利失败，估值也会相应上升<i>t</i>o 跟上看涨预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a&nbsp;</b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b>&nbsp;until after it is over.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的是，投资者从未意识到他们正处于</b><b><i>“融化”</i></b><b>直到一切结束。</b></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>随着市场的推进，广度仍然疲软</b></u></blockquote></p><p> At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p><p><blockquote>目前看涨趋势仍在继续，我们暂时必须尊重这一趋势。然而，有明显迹象表明，领先优势开始明显缩小，这在历史上一直是对投资者的警告。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>”&nbsp;As shown in the chart below, although the S&amp;P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&amp;P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&amp;P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“如下图所示，尽管标普500上周还处于历史高位，但纽约证券交易所整体的累计涨跌幅线在今年6月11日达到峰值。两者之间的背离看起来与去年 9 月初相似--当时主要是标普500内的 “五大 ”股票（“将军”）推动标普500达到 2020 年 9 月 2 日的高点。查尔斯·施瓦布</i><i>“标普500股票交易高于 50 天移动平均线的比例在 4 月份达到顶峰，在 6 月份达到低谷，直到最近才有所改善，但又再次面临压力。纳斯达克和罗素 2000 指数的情况就不一样了，这两个指数都在 2 月初达到顶峰，此后普遍呈下降趋势。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“相对于 200 天移动平均线 (DMA)，这三个指数自 4 月份以来总体呈下降趋势，如下图第二张图表所示。”查尔斯·施瓦布</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p><p><blockquote>当然，正如我们每周重复的那样，当我们指出警告信号时，这并不意味着卖掉所有东西并去兑现。然而，它确实是一个明显的警告，相应地调整你的风险敞口，并为潜在的颠簸旅程做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>  <b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“飞机降落时系上安全带并不意味着你会坠毁。但这是一种合理的预防措施，以防万一”。</i><b>美联储真的能缩减规模吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted&nbsp;<b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我们注意到越来越多的美联储发言人讨论开始<i>“锥形”</i>美联储最近几周的资产负债表购买。随着就业恢复到历史上被认为的 “充分就业 ”水平，职位空缺激增，通货膨胀上升，缩减就业规模的必要性显而易见。如前所述<b><i>在我们的每日市场评论中：</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Importantly&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>  <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some&nbsp;“wiggle-room”&nbsp;for now, but likely not for long.</i>“  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p><p><blockquote><i>“个人消费支出 7 月份增长 0.4%，符合预期。该水平比 6 月份低 0.1%。</i><i><b>同比增长率为 4.2%，是美联储 2% 通胀目标的两倍多。</b></i><i>重要的</i><i><b>这表明美联储应该采取行动收紧货币政策。</b></i><i>然而，经修正后的平均 PCE 为 2%，这给了美联储一些 “回旋余地”，但可能不会持续太久。</i>“虽然美联储短期内可能有一些回旋余地，但调整后的平均PCE将在下个月赶上PCE。</blockquote></p><p> The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be&nbsp;<i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，美联储现在被迫收紧货币政策以平息通胀压力。然而，不断上升的风险表明它们可能是<i>被困住了</i>继续购买债券，冒着通胀飙升和造成市场不稳定的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That risk is the&nbsp;<i>“deficit.”</i></p><p><blockquote>这种风险是<i>“赤字。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁将为赤字提供资金</b></blockquote></p><p> As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as&nbsp;<i>“infrastructure”</i>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>正如最近所讨论的，政府目前的强制性开支消耗了现有税收收入的100%以上。因此，所有可自由支配支出加上额外计划，例如<i>“基础设施”</i>和<i>“人力基础设施”</i>来自债务发行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i>&nbsp;$1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如图所示，2021 年预算将把当前赤字推向 4 万亿美元，要求美联储至少货币化<b><i>根据我们之前的分析，该发行量为 1 万亿美元。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>  <i>Reason</i>    <i>The CBO&nbsp;(Congressional Budget Office) recently&nbsp;produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns.&nbsp;I reconstructed a chart from&nbsp;Deutsche Bank&nbsp;showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p><p><blockquote><i>去年政府支出扩张的规模和范围是前所未有的。因为山姆大叔没有钱，所以很多钱都进了政府的信用卡。赤字和债务飙升。但这仅仅是开始。</i><i><b>拜登政府最近提出了2022财年6万亿美元的预算，其中三分之二是借款。”–</b></i><i>理由</i><i>CBO（国会预算办公室）最近发布了到2050年的长期债务预测，确保了糟糕的经济回报。我重建了一张德意志银行的图表，显示了美国联邦债务和美联储的资产负债表。该图表使用了CBO到2050年的预测。</i><b>按照目前的增长率，到2050年，联邦债务负担将从28万亿美元攀升至约140万亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题在于美联储必须继续将30%的债务发行货币化，以防止利率飙升并破坏经济。</blockquote></p><p> Let than sink in for a minute.</p><p><blockquote>让我们沉浸一分钟。</blockquote></p><p> If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to&nbsp;<i>“taper”</i>&nbsp;their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p><p><blockquote>如果情况确实如此，美联储将无法<i>锥形</i>他们的资产负债表购买，除非他们愿意冒利率飙升、经济增长崩溃和通货紧缩螺旋的风险。</blockquote></p><p> As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p><p><blockquote>正如预期的第三季度-<b>GDP被削减</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that&nbsp;<i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i>&nbsp;To wit:</p><p><blockquote>自今年年初以来，我们已经撰写了几篇文章，指出当人为刺激推动经济增长时，经济增长最终会令人失望。具体来说，我们注意到<i>“债券发出了经济警告”。</i>即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The&nbsp;<i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i>&nbsp;is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>如图所示，利率与经济综合指数之间的相关性表明，当前对经济持续扩张和通胀上升的预期过于乐观。</b></i><i>按照目前的速度，到2022年，经济增长可能会很快恢复到2%以下。”</i>这个<i><b>经济增长失望</b></i>这也是债务和赤字水平飙升的一个函数，如上所述，债务和赤字水平必须完全由美联储提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>周四，由于经济数据继续令人失望，亚特兰大联储和摩根士丹利都下调了对第三季度增长的预期。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>3.7</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>percent</b></i>  <i>on September 2,&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>  <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p><p><blockquote><i>“GDPNow模型对2021年第三季度实际国内生产总值增长（经季节性调整年率）的估计为</i><i><b>3.7</b></i><i> </i><i><b>百分比</b></i><i>9月2日，</i><i><b>低于 9 月 1 日的 5.3%</b></i><i>亚特兰大联储</i>值得注意的是，消费和投资大幅下调，分别从2.6%和23.4%下降到1.9%和19.3%。然而，正如我们之前指出的，这并不奇怪，因为 “刺激 ”离开了这个体系，经济驱动因素恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根和高盛也是如此</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，摩根斯坦利也下调了他们的预期：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>  <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>    <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>我们将第三季度 GDP 跟踪从之前的 6.5% 下调至 2.9%</b></i><i>.我们对第四季度GDP的预测维持在6.7%。修正至第三季度意味着今年第四季度/第四季度全年 GDP 为 5.6%（同比增长 5.7%），比美联储在 6 月份经济预测摘要（SEP）中预测的 7.0% 低 1.4 个百分点，比彭博经济学家一致认为的 6.3% 低 0.7 个百分点。</i><i><b>对数据的审查显示，经济放缓并不广泛，主要反映了刺激支出的回报以及持续的供应链瓶颈。</b></i><i>波动因素最大的是大件耐用品的支出，这些商品从刺激检查中受益最多，但受库存不足和供应短缺导致价格上涨的影响最大，例如汽车。”</i>正如我们之前所讨论的，这两次评级下调是在追赶我们之前的分析和两周前高盛的下调。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>  <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i>&nbsp;–  <i>&nbsp;Goldman Sachs</i>  Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我们已将第三季度 GDP 预测下调至 +5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产均受到打击。</b></i><i>8月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务的支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。”</i> –<i>高盛</i>投资者不应忽视这些评级下调的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利预测面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity&nbsp;(personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p><p><blockquote>在我们关于<i><b>“经济和盈利增长达到顶峰，</b></i>“我们指出，企业收益和利润最终来自经济活动（个人消费和商业投资）。因此，目前的崇高期望不太可能得到满足。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>投资者目前面临的问题是，分析师的假设总是很高，而市场的估值更为极端，这让人失望的余地很小。例如，根据分析师对 2020 年 4700 点的目标价假设和当前的盈利预期，标准普尔指数的盈利增长为 2.6 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p><p><blockquote>这使得目前的市盈率为 2020 年市盈率的 25.6 倍，按照历史标准来看，这仍然很昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&amp;P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p><p><blockquote>随着盈利增长开始恢复，这也使得标普500远高于线性趋势线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p><p><blockquote>到今年年底，公司将出于多种原因下调盈利预期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>经济增长不会像预期的那样强劲。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>潜在的更高企业税率可能会减少收益。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>刺激措施带来的投入成本增加无法转嫁给消费者。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>利率上升导致借贷成本增加，从而影响盈利。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于就业减少和工资疲软，消费者比目前预期的疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于美元走强影响出口，全球需求疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i>&nbsp;“overpaying”</i></b><b>&nbsp;for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这将再次让投资者</b><b><i>“多付”</i></b><b>对于未能实现的盈利增长。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?<blockquote>多头能否挑战九月疲软的可能性？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 20:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our&nbsp;<i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i>&nbsp;on Wednesday:</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们之前讨论过 8 月份往往是一年中最疲软的月份之一，但多头将这种疲软定义为上涨了近 3%。然而，正如我们在<i><b>每日市场评论</b></i>周三：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月份的季节性表现不佳，市场上涨了 2.6%。9 月份的季节性会更准确吗？”</i></blockquote></p><p> For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p><p><blockquote>目前，看涨偏见依然强烈，因为从 GDP 到制造业和就业等一系列弱于预期的经济数据给美联储可能阻止其<i>“锥形”</i>计划。但是，正如我们稍后会讨论的，我们认为多头可能出于不同的原因是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> However, in the meantime, the&nbsp;<i>“stairstep”</i>&nbsp;advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market.&nbsp;<b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与此同时，<i>“楼梯”</i>随着投机取代市场投资，基本面疲软的公司大幅上涨，市场继续上涨。<b>因此，尽管价格仍然高企，但现金流却在减弱，这表明下一次经济衰退大约还有一到两周的时间。</b>到目前为止，这些修正仍仅限于 50-dma，比周五收盘价低约 3%，但对 200-dma 进行 10% 的修正仍有可能。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p><p><blockquote>虽然市场在过去一年中的上涨似乎没有什么令人担忧的地方，但鉴于市场上涨的幅度，也许这应该是令人担忧的地方。我将在即将发表的文章中讨论 “市场融化 ”的历史及其最终结果。然而，需要注意的是，随着盈利失败，估值也会相应上升<i>t</i>o 跟上看涨预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a&nbsp;</b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b>&nbsp;until after it is over.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的是，投资者从未意识到他们正处于</b><b><i>“融化”</i></b><b>直到一切结束。</b></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>随着市场的推进，广度仍然疲软</b></u></blockquote></p><p> At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p><p><blockquote>目前看涨趋势仍在继续，我们暂时必须尊重这一趋势。然而，有明显迹象表明，领先优势开始明显缩小，这在历史上一直是对投资者的警告。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>”&nbsp;As shown in the chart below, although the S&amp;P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&amp;P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&amp;P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“如下图所示，尽管标普500上周还处于历史高位，但纽约证券交易所整体的累计涨跌幅线在今年6月11日达到峰值。两者之间的背离看起来与去年 9 月初相似--当时主要是标普500内的 “五大 ”股票（“将军”）推动标普500达到 2020 年 9 月 2 日的高点。查尔斯·施瓦布</i><i>“标普500股票交易高于 50 天移动平均线的比例在 4 月份达到顶峰，在 6 月份达到低谷，直到最近才有所改善，但又再次面临压力。纳斯达克和罗素 2000 指数的情况就不一样了，这两个指数都在 2 月初达到顶峰，此后普遍呈下降趋势。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“相对于 200 天移动平均线 (DMA)，这三个指数自 4 月份以来总体呈下降趋势，如下图第二张图表所示。”查尔斯·施瓦布</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p><p><blockquote>当然，正如我们每周重复的那样，当我们指出警告信号时，这并不意味着卖掉所有东西并去兑现。然而，它确实是一个明显的警告，相应地调整你的风险敞口，并为潜在的颠簸旅程做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>  <b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“飞机降落时系上安全带并不意味着你会坠毁。但这是一种合理的预防措施，以防万一”。</i><b>美联储真的能缩减规模吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted&nbsp;<b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我们注意到越来越多的美联储发言人讨论开始<i>“锥形”</i>美联储最近几周的资产负债表购买。随着就业恢复到历史上被认为的 “充分就业 ”水平，职位空缺激增，通货膨胀上升，缩减就业规模的必要性显而易见。如前所述<b><i>在我们的每日市场评论中：</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Importantly&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>  <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some&nbsp;“wiggle-room”&nbsp;for now, but likely not for long.</i>“  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p><p><blockquote><i>“个人消费支出 7 月份增长 0.4%，符合预期。该水平比 6 月份低 0.1%。</i><i><b>同比增长率为 4.2%，是美联储 2% 通胀目标的两倍多。</b></i><i>重要的</i><i><b>这表明美联储应该采取行动收紧货币政策。</b></i><i>然而，经修正后的平均 PCE 为 2%，这给了美联储一些 “回旋余地”，但可能不会持续太久。</i>“虽然美联储短期内可能有一些回旋余地，但调整后的平均PCE将在下个月赶上PCE。</blockquote></p><p> The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be&nbsp;<i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，美联储现在被迫收紧货币政策以平息通胀压力。然而，不断上升的风险表明它们可能是<i>被困住了</i>继续购买债券，冒着通胀飙升和造成市场不稳定的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That risk is the&nbsp;<i>“deficit.”</i></p><p><blockquote>这种风险是<i>“赤字。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁将为赤字提供资金</b></blockquote></p><p> As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as&nbsp;<i>“infrastructure”</i>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>正如最近所讨论的，政府目前的强制性开支消耗了现有税收收入的100%以上。因此，所有可自由支配支出加上额外计划，例如<i>“基础设施”</i>和<i>“人力基础设施”</i>来自债务发行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i>&nbsp;$1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如图所示，2021 年预算将把当前赤字推向 4 万亿美元，要求美联储至少货币化<b><i>根据我们之前的分析，该发行量为 1 万亿美元。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>  <i>Reason</i>    <i>The CBO&nbsp;(Congressional Budget Office) recently&nbsp;produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns.&nbsp;I reconstructed a chart from&nbsp;Deutsche Bank&nbsp;showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p><p><blockquote><i>去年政府支出扩张的规模和范围是前所未有的。因为山姆大叔没有钱，所以很多钱都进了政府的信用卡。赤字和债务飙升。但这仅仅是开始。</i><i><b>拜登政府最近提出了2022财年6万亿美元的预算，其中三分之二是借款。”–</b></i><i>理由</i><i>CBO（国会预算办公室）最近发布了到2050年的长期债务预测，确保了糟糕的经济回报。我重建了一张德意志银行的图表，显示了美国联邦债务和美联储的资产负债表。该图表使用了CBO到2050年的预测。</i><b>按照目前的增长率，到2050年，联邦债务负担将从28万亿美元攀升至约140万亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题在于美联储必须继续将30%的债务发行货币化，以防止利率飙升并破坏经济。</blockquote></p><p> Let than sink in for a minute.</p><p><blockquote>让我们沉浸一分钟。</blockquote></p><p> If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to&nbsp;<i>“taper”</i>&nbsp;their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p><p><blockquote>如果情况确实如此，美联储将无法<i>锥形</i>他们的资产负债表购买，除非他们愿意冒利率飙升、经济增长崩溃和通货紧缩螺旋的风险。</blockquote></p><p> As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p><p><blockquote>正如预期的第三季度-<b>GDP被削减</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that&nbsp;<i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i>&nbsp;To wit:</p><p><blockquote>自今年年初以来，我们已经撰写了几篇文章，指出当人为刺激推动经济增长时，经济增长最终会令人失望。具体来说，我们注意到<i>“债券发出了经济警告”。</i>即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The&nbsp;<i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i>&nbsp;is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>如图所示，利率与经济综合指数之间的相关性表明，当前对经济持续扩张和通胀上升的预期过于乐观。</b></i><i>按照目前的速度，到2022年，经济增长可能会很快恢复到2%以下。”</i>这个<i><b>经济增长失望</b></i>这也是债务和赤字水平飙升的一个函数，如上所述，债务和赤字水平必须完全由美联储提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>周四，由于经济数据继续令人失望，亚特兰大联储和摩根士丹利都下调了对第三季度增长的预期。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>3.7</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>percent</b></i>  <i>on September 2,&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>  <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p><p><blockquote><i>“GDPNow模型对2021年第三季度实际国内生产总值增长（经季节性调整年率）的估计为</i><i><b>3.7</b></i><i> </i><i><b>百分比</b></i><i>9月2日，</i><i><b>低于 9 月 1 日的 5.3%</b></i><i>亚特兰大联储</i>值得注意的是，消费和投资大幅下调，分别从2.6%和23.4%下降到1.9%和19.3%。然而，正如我们之前指出的，这并不奇怪，因为 “刺激 ”离开了这个体系，经济驱动因素恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根和高盛也是如此</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，摩根斯坦利也下调了他们的预期：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>  <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>    <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>我们将第三季度 GDP 跟踪从之前的 6.5% 下调至 2.9%</b></i><i>.我们对第四季度GDP的预测维持在6.7%。修正至第三季度意味着今年第四季度/第四季度全年 GDP 为 5.6%（同比增长 5.7%），比美联储在 6 月份经济预测摘要（SEP）中预测的 7.0% 低 1.4 个百分点，比彭博经济学家一致认为的 6.3% 低 0.7 个百分点。</i><i><b>对数据的审查显示，经济放缓并不广泛，主要反映了刺激支出的回报以及持续的供应链瓶颈。</b></i><i>波动因素最大的是大件耐用品的支出，这些商品从刺激检查中受益最多，但受库存不足和供应短缺导致价格上涨的影响最大，例如汽车。”</i>正如我们之前所讨论的，这两次评级下调是在追赶我们之前的分析和两周前高盛的下调。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>  <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i>&nbsp;–  <i>&nbsp;Goldman Sachs</i>  Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我们已将第三季度 GDP 预测下调至 +5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产均受到打击。</b></i><i>8月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务的支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。”</i> –<i>高盛</i>投资者不应忽视这些评级下调的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利预测面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity&nbsp;(personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p><p><blockquote>在我们关于<i><b>“经济和盈利增长达到顶峰，</b></i>“我们指出，企业收益和利润最终来自经济活动（个人消费和商业投资）。因此，目前的崇高期望不太可能得到满足。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>投资者目前面临的问题是，分析师的假设总是很高，而市场的估值更为极端，这让人失望的余地很小。例如，根据分析师对 2020 年 4700 点的目标价假设和当前的盈利预期，标准普尔指数的盈利增长为 2.6 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p><p><blockquote>这使得目前的市盈率为 2020 年市盈率的 25.6 倍，按照历史标准来看，这仍然很昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&amp;P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p><p><blockquote>随着盈利增长开始恢复，这也使得标普500远高于线性趋势线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p><p><blockquote>到今年年底，公司将出于多种原因下调盈利预期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>经济增长不会像预期的那样强劲。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>潜在的更高企业税率可能会减少收益。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>刺激措施带来的投入成本增加无法转嫁给消费者。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>利率上升导致借贷成本增加，从而影响盈利。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于就业减少和工资疲软，消费者比目前预期的疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于美元走强影响出口，全球需求疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i>&nbsp;“overpaying”</i></b><b>&nbsp;for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这将再次让投资者</b><b><i>“多付”</i></b><b>对于未能实现的盈利增长。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136345203","content_text":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market Commentary on Wednesday:\n\n“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”\n\n\nFor now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their “tapering” plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.\nHowever, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.\nWhile there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings failto keep up with bullish expectations.\nSignificantly, investors never realize they are in a “melt-up” until after it is over.\nBreadth Remains Weak As Market Advances\nAt the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.\n\n” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab\n\n“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”\n“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab\nOf course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.\n\n“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”\n\nCan The Fed Really Taper?\nWe have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin “tapering” the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted in our daily market commentary:\n\n“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. \nThe year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.\n Importantly \nit suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.\nHowever, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.“\n\nWhile the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.\nThe point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be “trapped” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.\nThat risk is the “deficit.”\nWho Is Going To Fund The Deficit\nAs discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as “infrastructure” and “human infrastructure”comes from debt issuance.\nAs shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.\n\nThe scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. \nThe Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –\nReason\n\n\nThe CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.\n\nThe federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.\nThe problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.\nLet than sink in for a minute.\nIf that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to “taper” their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.\nAs Expected Q3-GDP Gets Slashed\nSince the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that “bonds were sending an economic warning.” To wit:\n\n“\nAs shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.\n At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”\n\nThe disappointment of economic growth is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.\nOn Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.\n\n“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is \n3.7\n \npercent\non September 2, \ndown from 5.3 percent on September 1\n.” – Atlanta Fed\n\nNotably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.\nMorgan and Goldman As Well\nAs stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:\n\n“\nWe are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously\n. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.\n\n\nAn examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.\n The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”\n\nAs we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:\n\n“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.\nSpending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.” –\n  Goldman Sachs\n\nInvestors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.\nEarnings Estimates At Risk\nIn our post on“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.\nThe problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.\nSuch puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.\nThat also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.\nThrough the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:\n\nEconomic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.\nPotentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.\nThe increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.\nHigher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.\nA weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.\nGlobal demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.\n\nSuch will leave investors once again “overpaying” for earnings growth that fails to materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815887627,"gmtCreate":1630666495469,"gmtModify":1631891570610,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815887627","repostId":"2164873541","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":812663642,"gmtCreate":1630583940986,"gmtModify":1631891570612,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Excellent 😊","listText":"Excellent 😊","text":"Excellent 😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812663642","repostId":"2164423358","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812669428,"gmtCreate":1630583879164,"gmtModify":1631891570618,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Excellent[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Excellent[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Excellent[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812669428","repostId":"2164842854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2164842854","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630583617,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2164842854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today<blockquote>为什么 ChargePoint Holdings 股价今天走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164842854","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.","content":"<p><b>ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.</b> (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.</p><p><blockquote><b>充电点控股公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CHPT）公布好于预期的第二季度财务业绩并上调全年指引后，该公司股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> ChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.</p><p><blockquote>ChargePoint Holdings 公布季度销售额为 5612 万美元，超出分析师普遍预期的 4906 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 2022 年全年销售指引从 1.95 亿美元至 2.05 亿美元上调至 2.25 亿美元至 2.35 亿美元，高于 2.066 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还发布了第三季度销售指引，范围为 6000 万美元至 6500 万美元，也高于 5460 万美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.</p><p><blockquote>“我们实现了创纪录的收入，显着发展了我们的商业、车队和住宅业务，与梅赛德斯启动了充电集成，宣布同意收购电动汽车技术提供商 has·to·be，并收购了 eBus 和商用车管理提供商 ViriCiti，”Pasquale Romano 说道，ChargePoint 总裁兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> ChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.</p><p><blockquote>ChargePoint Holdings Inc 运营电动汽车充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> ChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.</p><p><blockquote>截至周四发稿时，ChargePoint 的股价上涨约 12.5%，至每股 23.89 美元。该股52周高点49.48美元，52周低点10.19美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today<blockquote>为什么 ChargePoint Holdings 股价今天走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today<blockquote>为什么 ChargePoint Holdings 股价今天走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.</b> (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.</p><p><blockquote><b>充电点控股公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CHPT）公布好于预期的第二季度财务业绩并上调全年指引后，该公司股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> ChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.</p><p><blockquote>ChargePoint Holdings 公布季度销售额为 5612 万美元，超出分析师普遍预期的 4906 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 2022 年全年销售指引从 1.95 亿美元至 2.05 亿美元上调至 2.25 亿美元至 2.35 亿美元，高于 2.066 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还发布了第三季度销售指引，范围为 6000 万美元至 6500 万美元，也高于 5460 万美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.</p><p><blockquote>“我们实现了创纪录的收入，显着发展了我们的商业、车队和住宅业务，与梅赛德斯启动了充电集成，宣布同意收购电动汽车技术提供商 has·to·be，并收购了 eBus 和商用车管理提供商 ViriCiti，”Pasquale Romano 说道，ChargePoint 总裁兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> ChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.</p><p><blockquote>ChargePoint Holdings Inc 运营电动汽车充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> ChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.</p><p><blockquote>截至周四发稿时，ChargePoint 的股价上涨约 12.5%，至每股 23.89 美元。该股52周高点49.48美元，52周低点10.19美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164842854","content_text":"ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.\nChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.\nThe company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.\nThe company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.\n\"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.\nChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.\nChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHPT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816609141,"gmtCreate":1630491690583,"gmtModify":1631893451865,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816609141","repostId":"2164994738","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811642141,"gmtCreate":1630321717183,"gmtModify":1704958384741,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811642141","repostId":"2163061680","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":838825483,"gmtCreate":1629386317742,"gmtModify":1631893451930,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838825483","repostId":"2160601987","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892495401,"gmtCreate":1628680910603,"gmtModify":1633745186272,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892495401","repostId":"2158902289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837515024,"gmtCreate":1629899642668,"gmtModify":1631893451904,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy more","listText":"Buy more","text":"Buy more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837515024","repostId":"1179960613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179960613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629898082,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179960613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 21:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Stock Gained 27% on Tuesday. How Much Higher Can It Go?<blockquote>游戏驿站股价周二上涨 27%。能走多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179960613","media":"Barrons","summary":"GameStop stock was slipping after gaining 28% on Tuesday. But the revival of the meme-stock trade co","content":"<p>GameStop stock was slipping after gaining 28% on Tuesday. But the revival of the meme-stock trade could be good news for small-cap stocks generally.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价在周二上涨 28% 后下滑。但模因股票交易的复苏对于小盘股来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of GameStop have declined 1.4% to $207.5 in premarket trading Wednesday. It’s not much of a move compared with Tuesday’s surge, but with meme stocks, one never can tell.</p><p><blockquote>周三盘前交易中，游戏驿站股价下跌 1.4%，至 207.5 美元。与周二的飙升相比，这算不上什么，但对于备忘录股票来说，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop stock had dropped nearly 50% since peaking in early June, but erased 40% of that drop in one day. It also looks to have cleared resistance at about $200, which means there could be more upside ahead. Don’t be surprised if $200 becomes support.</p><p><blockquote>自 6 月初见顶以来，游戏驿站股价已下跌近 50%，但一天之内抹去了 40% 的跌幅。它看起来也已经清除了 200 美元左右的阻力，这意味着未来可能还有更多上涨空间。如果 200 美元成为支撑位，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ca853dd891fce6c2ec9d0ecf67497eb\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop wasn’t the only meme stock on the move Tuesday.AMC Entertainment(AMC)&nbsp;gained 20%, and like GameStop, it appeared to clear resistance, though not quite as cleanly. AMC stock is up 2.6% at $45.39 in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>AMC Entertainment (AMC) 上涨了 20%，与游戏驿站一样，它似乎也清除了阻力，尽管没有那么干净。AMC 股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.6%，至 45.39 美元。</blockquote></p><p> For those wondering why we care about these stocks, consider this: AMC is the largest position in the&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM), even if that means it’s just 0.5% of the index. If the meme stocks keep rising that could be good news for small-caps, which have&nbsp;gone nowhere since February.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想知道我们为什么关心这些股票，请考虑一下： AMC 是 iShares Russell 2000 ETF（IWM）中最大的仓位，即使这意味着它只占该指数的 0.5%。如果模因股票继续上涨，这对小盘股来说可能是个好消息，自二月份以来，小盘股一事无成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d97157fe74c2c1baef4735a0dbbc9d67\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “Nice bounce …but a lot still to prove,” writes Bay Crest Partners’ Jonathan Krinsky. “IWM closing above $225 would send a strong bullish message for small-caps, and suggest the now seven-month consolidation is, in fact, resolving higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“Bay Crest Partners 的乔纳森-克林斯基（Jonathan Krinsky）写道：”反弹不错.但还有很多事情需要证明。“IWM 收盘价高于 225 美元将向小盘股发出强烈的看涨信息，并表明目前为期七个月的盘整实际上正在走高。”</blockquote></p><p> Stay tuned.</p><p><blockquote>敬请期待。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Stock Gained 27% on Tuesday. How Much Higher Can It Go?<blockquote>游戏驿站股价周二上涨 27%。能走多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Stock Gained 27% on Tuesday. How Much Higher Can It Go?<blockquote>游戏驿站股价周二上涨 27%。能走多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 21:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop stock was slipping after gaining 28% on Tuesday. But the revival of the meme-stock trade could be good news for small-cap stocks generally.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价在周二上涨 28% 后下滑。但模因股票交易的复苏对于小盘股来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of GameStop have declined 1.4% to $207.5 in premarket trading Wednesday. It’s not much of a move compared with Tuesday’s surge, but with meme stocks, one never can tell.</p><p><blockquote>周三盘前交易中，游戏驿站股价下跌 1.4%，至 207.5 美元。与周二的飙升相比，这算不上什么，但对于备忘录股票来说，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop stock had dropped nearly 50% since peaking in early June, but erased 40% of that drop in one day. It also looks to have cleared resistance at about $200, which means there could be more upside ahead. Don’t be surprised if $200 becomes support.</p><p><blockquote>自 6 月初见顶以来，游戏驿站股价已下跌近 50%，但一天之内抹去了 40% 的跌幅。它看起来也已经清除了 200 美元左右的阻力，这意味着未来可能还有更多上涨空间。如果 200 美元成为支撑位，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ca853dd891fce6c2ec9d0ecf67497eb\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop wasn’t the only meme stock on the move Tuesday.AMC Entertainment(AMC)&nbsp;gained 20%, and like GameStop, it appeared to clear resistance, though not quite as cleanly. AMC stock is up 2.6% at $45.39 in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>AMC Entertainment (AMC) 上涨了 20%，与游戏驿站一样，它似乎也清除了阻力，尽管没有那么干净。AMC 股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.6%，至 45.39 美元。</blockquote></p><p> For those wondering why we care about these stocks, consider this: AMC is the largest position in the&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM), even if that means it’s just 0.5% of the index. If the meme stocks keep rising that could be good news for small-caps, which have&nbsp;gone nowhere since February.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想知道我们为什么关心这些股票，请考虑一下： AMC 是 iShares Russell 2000 ETF（IWM）中最大的仓位，即使这意味着它只占该指数的 0.5%。如果模因股票继续上涨，这对小盘股来说可能是个好消息，自二月份以来，小盘股一事无成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d97157fe74c2c1baef4735a0dbbc9d67\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “Nice bounce …but a lot still to prove,” writes Bay Crest Partners’ Jonathan Krinsky. “IWM closing above $225 would send a strong bullish message for small-caps, and suggest the now seven-month consolidation is, in fact, resolving higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“Bay Crest Partners 的乔纳森-克林斯基（Jonathan Krinsky）写道：”反弹不错.但还有很多事情需要证明。“IWM 收盘价高于 225 美元将向小盘股发出强烈的看涨信息，并表明目前为期七个月的盘整实际上正在走高。”</blockquote></p><p> Stay tuned.</p><p><blockquote>敬请期待。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-amc-stock-price-meme-rally-51629888258?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-amc-stock-price-meme-rally-51629888258?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179960613","content_text":"GameStop stock was slipping after gaining 28% on Tuesday. But the revival of the meme-stock trade could be good news for small-cap stocks generally.\nShares of GameStop have declined 1.4% to $207.5 in premarket trading Wednesday. It’s not much of a move compared with Tuesday’s surge, but with meme stocks, one never can tell.\nGameStop stock had dropped nearly 50% since peaking in early June, but erased 40% of that drop in one day. It also looks to have cleared resistance at about $200, which means there could be more upside ahead. Don’t be surprised if $200 becomes support.\n\nGameStop wasn’t the only meme stock on the move Tuesday.AMC Entertainment(AMC) gained 20%, and like GameStop, it appeared to clear resistance, though not quite as cleanly. AMC stock is up 2.6% at $45.39 in premarket trading.\nFor those wondering why we care about these stocks, consider this: AMC is the largest position in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM), even if that means it’s just 0.5% of the index. If the meme stocks keep rising that could be good news for small-caps, which have gone nowhere since February.\n\n“Nice bounce …but a lot still to prove,” writes Bay Crest Partners’ Jonathan Krinsky. “IWM closing above $225 would send a strong bullish message for small-caps, and suggest the now seven-month consolidation is, in fact, resolving higher.”\nStay tuned.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":828991583,"gmtCreate":1633830442585,"gmtModify":1633830442693,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828991583","repostId":"1190298937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190298937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787347,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190298937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍呼吁崩盘 10%-20%——这样保护自己</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190298937","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.\nThat makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief i","content":"<p>Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.</p><p><blockquote>增长放缓和金融环境收紧。</blockquote></p><p> That makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.</p><p><blockquote>这让摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊上周在给客户的一份说明中写道：”简而言之，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的股价。“其次，即使整体股市走低，它们也可能意味着价值高于增长”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson 在最近的一次采访中还表示，由于盈利预期过高，该公司 10%-20% 的调整看涨期权将由科技股引领。</blockquote></p><p> Within that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，威尔逊建议投资者青睐医疗保健、必需消费品和金融等防御性行业。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下这些领域的一些可能的游戏——其中一个可能值得用你的零钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)</p><p><blockquote>1. 金融：美国银行（BAC）</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，美国银行简化和完善了其业务实践和运营，从美国评级最低的银行之一上升到资产第二大银行（总资产约 2.3 万亿美元）。摩根大通拥有3万亿美元的资产，是最大的。</blockquote></p><p> As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从疫情中复苏，通胀继续飙升，利率可能会上升，使央行处于继续取得成功的有利地位。银行通过更广泛的“利差”（即支付给客户的利息与投资收入之间的差额）从更高的利率中受益。</blockquote></p><p> And despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上季度的盈利水平没有达到预期，但美国银行还是向股东提高了股息，将其收益率从每股 18 美分提高了 17%，达到 21 美分。目前，这些股票的股息率为 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)</p><p><blockquote>2. 必需消费品：百事可乐（PEP）</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐不仅仅是一个主要的可乐和汽水品牌。大多数消费者都会意识到激浪和佳得乐属于百事可乐的保护伞。</blockquote></p><p> But this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.</p><p><blockquote>但这家食品和饮料巨头还拥有菲多利、桂格食品、纯果乐、SodaStream和全球数十个其他品牌。</blockquote></p><p> With everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于每个人都花了这么多时间在家，疫情期间零食消费量大幅上升——这对百事可乐来说是个好消息。7 月份，该公司报告称净销售额同比增长超过 20%，达到 192.2 亿美元，远高于 180 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> And the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过健康的股息将一些甜蜜（或咸味，取决于你的口味）传递给股东，多年来股息一直在稳步增长。过去十年，百事可乐的股息复合增长率为 7.7%，而其主要竞争对手可口可乐的股息复合增长率为 6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司股票的股息率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Health care: Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)</p><p><blockquote>3. 医疗保健：强生公司（JNJ）</blockquote></p><p> Between its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson &amp; Johnson has become a household name.</p><p><blockquote>在医疗器械、药品和消费品包装业务之间，强生已成为家喻户晓的名字。</blockquote></p><p> And more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean &amp; Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.</p><p><blockquote>不仅如此，其众多子公司，包括创可贴、泰诺、露得清、李施德林和Clean &amp; Clear，都可以独立成为成功的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.</p><p><blockquote>强生在医疗保健领域的多元化控股确保了其能够度过任何经济衰退。强生制药公司旗下拥有少数行业领先的免疫学和癌症治疗药物，强生公司拥有大量的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第二季度的业绩得益于全年 COVID-19 注射的 125.9 亿美元收入，仅第二季度的全球销售额就达到了 1.64 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.</p><p><blockquote>JNJ 第三季度派发了 1.06 美元的股息，高于六个月前的 1.01 美元，与股东分享了其成功。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前的股息率为2.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍呼吁崩盘 10%-20%——这样保护自己</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍呼吁崩盘 10%-20%——这样保护自己</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.</p><p><blockquote>增长放缓和金融环境收紧。</blockquote></p><p> That makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.</p><p><blockquote>这让摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊上周在给客户的一份说明中写道：”简而言之，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的股价。“其次，即使整体股市走低，它们也可能意味着价值高于增长”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson 在最近的一次采访中还表示，由于盈利预期过高，该公司 10%-20% 的调整看涨期权将由科技股引领。</blockquote></p><p> Within that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，威尔逊建议投资者青睐医疗保健、必需消费品和金融等防御性行业。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下这些领域的一些可能的游戏——其中一个可能值得用你的零钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)</p><p><blockquote>1. 金融：美国银行（BAC）</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，美国银行简化和完善了其业务实践和运营，从美国评级最低的银行之一上升到资产第二大银行（总资产约 2.3 万亿美元）。摩根大通拥有3万亿美元的资产，是最大的。</blockquote></p><p> As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从疫情中复苏，通胀继续飙升，利率可能会上升，使央行处于继续取得成功的有利地位。银行通过更广泛的“利差”（即支付给客户的利息与投资收入之间的差额）从更高的利率中受益。</blockquote></p><p> And despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上季度的盈利水平没有达到预期，但美国银行还是向股东提高了股息，将其收益率从每股 18 美分提高了 17%，达到 21 美分。目前，这些股票的股息率为 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)</p><p><blockquote>2. 必需消费品：百事可乐（PEP）</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐不仅仅是一个主要的可乐和汽水品牌。大多数消费者都会意识到激浪和佳得乐属于百事可乐的保护伞。</blockquote></p><p> But this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.</p><p><blockquote>但这家食品和饮料巨头还拥有菲多利、桂格食品、纯果乐、SodaStream和全球数十个其他品牌。</blockquote></p><p> With everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于每个人都花了这么多时间在家，疫情期间零食消费量大幅上升——这对百事可乐来说是个好消息。7 月份，该公司报告称净销售额同比增长超过 20%，达到 192.2 亿美元，远高于 180 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> And the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过健康的股息将一些甜蜜（或咸味，取决于你的口味）传递给股东，多年来股息一直在稳步增长。过去十年，百事可乐的股息复合增长率为 7.7%，而其主要竞争对手可口可乐的股息复合增长率为 6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司股票的股息率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Health care: Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)</p><p><blockquote>3. 医疗保健：强生公司（JNJ）</blockquote></p><p> Between its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson &amp; Johnson has become a household name.</p><p><blockquote>在医疗器械、药品和消费品包装业务之间，强生已成为家喻户晓的名字。</blockquote></p><p> And more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean &amp; Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.</p><p><blockquote>不仅如此，其众多子公司，包括创可贴、泰诺、露得清、李施德林和Clean &amp; Clear，都可以独立成为成功的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.</p><p><blockquote>强生在医疗保健领域的多元化控股确保了其能够度过任何经济衰退。强生制药公司旗下拥有少数行业领先的免疫学和癌症治疗药物，强生公司拥有大量的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第二季度的业绩得益于全年 COVID-19 注射的 125.9 亿美元收入，仅第二季度的全球销售额就达到了 1.64 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.</p><p><blockquote>JNJ 第三季度派发了 1.06 美元的股息，高于六个月前的 1.01 美元，与股东分享了其成功。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前的股息率为2.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-still-calling-10-120000250.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","PEP":"百事可乐","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-still-calling-10-120000250.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190298937","content_text":"Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.\nThat makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.\n“In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.\nWithin that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.\nLet's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.\n1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)\nOver the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.\nAs the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.\nAnd despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.\n2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)\nPepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.\nBut this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.\nWith everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.\nAnd the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.\nPepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.\n3. Health care: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)\nBetween its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson & Johnson has become a household name.\nAnd more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean & Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.\nJNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.\nThe company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.\nJNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.\nThe stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"PEP":0.9,"JNJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882541262,"gmtCreate":1631711406356,"gmtModify":1631891570592,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882541262","repostId":"1197984444","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816609141,"gmtCreate":1630491690583,"gmtModify":1631893451865,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816609141","repostId":"2164994738","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805451591,"gmtCreate":1627901731013,"gmtModify":1633755473482,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805451591","repostId":"1131923658","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131923658","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627898076,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131923658?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Tesla's stock price return to the upward channel?<blockquote>特斯拉股价能否重回上升通道？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131923658","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla released Q2 earnings and revenues last week that beat analysts' expectations.\n\"In the second q","content":"<p>Tesla released Q2 earnings and revenues last week that beat analysts' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上周发布的第二季度收益和收入超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"In the second quarter of 2021, we broke new and notable records,\" said Tesla in the company's second-quarter update. \"We produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles, achieved an operating margin of 11% and exceeded [$1 billion] of GAAP net income for the first time in our history.\"</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在公司第二季度更新中表示：“2021 年第二季度，我们打破了新的、引人注目的记录。”“我们生产和交付了超过 200,000 辆汽车，实现了 11% 的营业利润率，并有史以来首次超过 [10 亿美元] GAAP 净利润。”</blockquote></p><p> Here's a closer look at the quarter, captured by five must-see takeaways from the report.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对该季度的近距离观察，由报告中的五个必看要点捕捉到。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Revenue hit $12 billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.收入达到120亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Helped by a 121% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries, Tesla's revenue surged 98% year over year to approximately $12 billion. This crushed analysts' average forecast for revenue of $11.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>得益于汽车交付量同比增长 121%，特斯拉的收入同比飙升 98%，达到约 120 亿美元。这打破了分析师对 113 亿美元收入的平均预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Profits skyrocketed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、利润暴涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, with revenue like this, it wasn't surprising to see profits soar. Net income increased from $104 million in the year-ago period to $1.14 billion. Non-GAAP (adjusted) net income increased 258% year over year to $1.6 billion. This translated to non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.45 -- far ahead of a consensus analyst estimate of $0.98.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有了这样的收入，看到利润飙升也就不足为奇了。净利润从去年同期的 1.04 亿美元增至 11.4 亿美元。非 GAAP（调整后）净利润同比增长 258%，达到 16 亿美元。这意味着非 GAAP 每股收益为 1.45 美元，远远高于分析师普遍预期的 0.98 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The outsized growth in Tesla's profits demonstrates the scalability of the company's business model.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉利润的大幅增长证明了该公司商业模式的可扩展性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Free cash flow remains healthy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.自由现金流保持健康</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla once again generated positive free cash flow, or cash flow from operations less capital expenditures. Free cash flow for the period increased from $418 million in the year-ago period to $619 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉再次产生了正的自由现金流，即运营现金流减去资本支出。期内自由现金流从去年同期的 4.18 亿美元增加到 6.19 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Total cash on hand fell from $17.1 billion in the first quarter of 2021 to $16.2 billion but this was primarily due to $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments.</p><p><blockquote>手头现金总额从 2021 年第一季度的 171 亿美元下降至 162 亿美元，但这主要是由于 16 亿美元的净债务和融资租赁还款。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Vehicle demand is robust</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.车辆需求强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla once again said demand for its vehicles achieved record levels. Indeed, demand is so robust that the company is supply constrained. \"Global demand continues to be robust, and we are producing at the limits of available parts supply,\" Tesla explained.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉再次表示，对其汽车的需求达到了创纪录的水平。事实上，需求如此强劲，以至于该公司面临供应限制。“全球需求仍然强劲，我们的生产受到可用零部件供应的限制，”特斯拉解释道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. There's more sharp growth to come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 未来将有更强劲的增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Tesla remains optimistic about its growth trajectory. The company says it continues to expect to grow its total deliveries more than 50% year over year this year. This implies 2021 total deliveries of more than 750,000. So far, Tesla has delivered more than 386,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，特斯拉仍然对其增长轨迹持乐观态度。该公司表示，预计今年总交付量将同比增长 50% 以上。这意味着2021年的总交付量将超过75万辆。到目前为止，特斯拉今年已交付超过 386,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> \"The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain,\" Tesla noted.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉指出：“增长率将取决于我们的设备产能、运营效率以及供应链的能力和稳定性。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Four Challenges to Tesla’s Growth</h4> However,investors are concerned with several factors that may slow Tesla's feverish share price growth soon.</p><p><blockquote><h4>特斯拉增长面临的四大挑战</h4>然而，投资者担心有几个因素可能会很快减缓特斯拉狂热的股价增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is an efficient market, discounting good news and bad news on listed companies. As a result, shares are run-up ahead of good news and sold-off ahead of bad news. Sometimes, Mr. Market—to use Benjamin Graham's terminology—is too optimistic, sending the shares of listed companies well above their fundamental or intrinsic value. Other times, Mr. Market is too pessimistic, sending shares of listed companies well below their intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街是一个高效的市场，贴现上市公司的好消息和坏消息。因此，股价在好消息出现前上涨，在坏消息出现前抛售。有时，市场先生——用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话来说——过于乐观，导致上市公司的股价远高于其基本面或内在价值。其他时候，先生。市场过于悲观，导致上市公司股价远低于其内在价值。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's shares are overvalued by many standards. TipRanks, for instance, estimates Tesla's 12-month-trailing return on equity to be a modest 12.41%, while estimates put Tesla's intrinsic value at $160.11, well below its current price level.</p><p><blockquote>从许多标准来看，特斯拉的股票都被高估了。例如，TipRanks 估计特斯拉过去 12 个月的股本回报率为 12.41%，而估计特斯拉的内在价值为 160.11 美元，远低于其当前价格水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition from Colonizers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>来自殖民者的竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> Once, Tesla had little competition, as the electric vehicle (EV) market it pioneered had little competition from traditional automakers. However, that's no longer the case, as General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, and Toyota are invading the electric market.</p><p><blockquote>曾几何时，特斯拉几乎没有竞争，因为它开创的电动汽车（EV）市场几乎没有来自传统汽车制造商的竞争。然而，情况已不再如此，因为通用汽车、福特、大众和丰田正在入侵电动市场。</blockquote></p><p> These \"colonizers\" of the EV market have the manufacturing experience, expertise, and distribution networks to scale up EV production and cross the \"tipping point\" of bringing EVs to the masses. Meanwhile, the entry of new competitors into the EV market could unleash price competition that will erode Tesla's revenue growth and profit margins. That's something Wall Street is watching closely in quarterly financial statements.</p><p><blockquote>这些电动汽车市场的“殖民者”拥有制造经验、专业知识和分销网络来扩大电动汽车生产规模并跨越将电动汽车推向大众的“临界点”。与此同时，新竞争对手进入电动汽车市场可能会引发价格竞争，从而侵蚀特斯拉的收入增长和利润率。这是华尔街在季度财务报表中密切关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Exposure</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币暴露</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's CEO Elon Musk has an affinity for bitcoin. That's why he has been investing some of the company's cash in digital currency. As of the end of March, Tesla's $1.5 billion investment was worth $2.48 billion, based on the surge in bitcoin in the first quarter. However, that has its risks, too, given bitcoin's volatility.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对比特币情有独钟。这就是为什么他一直将公司的部分现金投资于数字货币。截至3月底，基于第一季度比特币的激增，特斯拉15亿美元的投资价值24.8亿美元。然而，鉴于比特币的波动性，这也有其风险。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to bitcoin's volatility are accounting rules that treat the digital currency as an indefinite-lived intangible asset. Thus, it is subject to impairment losses if its fair value decreases below the carrying value during the assessed reporting period. Companies cannot recover impairment losses for any subsequent increase in fair value until the asset's sale. Tesla reported bitcoin-related impairments of $23 million in Q2 as the price of digital currency dived.</p><p><blockquote>加剧比特币波动性的是将数字货币视为无限期无形资产的会计规则。因此，倘其公平值于评估报告期内下跌至低于账面值，则会出现减值亏损。在出售资产之前，公司不能就任何后续公允价值增加收回减值亏损。随着数字货币价格暴跌，特斯拉报告第二季度与比特币相关的减值为 2300 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising Material Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>材料成本上升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Together with traditional automobile makers, Tesla faces a severe material shortage due to supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to slow down the pace of its feverish growth.</p><p><blockquote>由于COVID-19大流行期间供应链中断，特斯拉与传统汽车制造商一起面临严重的材料短缺，预计这将减缓其狂热增长的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> \"While we're making cars at full speed, the global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,\" Musk told investors. \"For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain,\" adding that there are a wide range of chips that will serve as that brake on growth.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们正在全速制造汽车，但全球芯片短缺情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克告诉投资者。“在今年剩余时间里，我们的增长率将取决于我们供应链中最慢的部分，”他补充说，有多种芯片将成为增长的刹车。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Mixed reviews from Wall Street</h4> Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill said Tesla shares are already priced to perfection, which could explain the stock’s weakness on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><h4>华尔街褒贬不一</h4>Needham 分析师 Rajvindra Gill 说，特斯拉股票的定价已经非常完美，这可以解释该股周二的疲软。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla's ‘priced to perfection’ valuation is hard for us to justify, even with more positive recent Results,” Gill wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“吉尔写道：”即使最近的业绩更加积极，我们也很难证明特斯拉'定价到完美'的估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the quarter likely didn’t change the narrative for bulls or bears, and Tesla is still not a value stock priced at an enterprise multiple of 70x.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas 表示，本季度可能不会改变多头或空头的说法，特斯拉仍然不是一只价值股，企业市盈率为 70 倍。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla is not only among the fastest growing auto companies in the world, it is also one of the most profitable,” Jonas wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“乔纳斯写道：”特斯拉不仅是世界上发展最快的汽车公司之一，也是最赚钱的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said auto gross margins were impressive, but they may not last.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行分析师科林·兰根表示，汽车毛利率令人印象深刻，但可能不会持久。</blockquote></p><p> “We see auto margins moderating in Q3/Q4 due to rising raw mat costs and mix dilution as the lower priced Model Y SR launches in China,” Langran wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“Langran 写道：”我们认为，由于原料垫成本上升以及随着价格较低的 Model Y SR 在中国上市，混合动力稀释，第三季度/第四季度的汽车利润率将会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> John Murphy with B. of A. Securities struck a more cautious tone. Despite the beat, \"competition is fierce and heating up,\" he said. \"(Tesla's) operating environment is shifting from that of a vacuum to an increasingly crowded space.\"</p><p><blockquote>B. of A. Securities 的约翰·墨菲 (John Murphy) 语气更加谨慎。尽管节奏很快，“竞争还是很激烈的，”他说。“（特斯拉的）运营环境正在从真空转向日益拥挤的空间。”</blockquote></p><p> The quarterly beat was \"very much helped by positive pricing dynamics and good execution,\" and Murphy raised his price target on the stock to $800 from $750, which represents an upside around 26% from Tuesday's prices. He kept B. of A.'s neutral rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩“在很大程度上得益于积极的定价动态和良好的执行力”，墨菲将该股的目标价从 750 美元上调至 800 美元，比周二的价格上涨了约 26%。他维持了该股的中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Tesla's stock price return to the upward channel?<blockquote>特斯拉股价能否重回上升通道？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Tesla's stock price return to the upward channel?<blockquote>特斯拉股价能否重回上升通道？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 17:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla released Q2 earnings and revenues last week that beat analysts' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上周发布的第二季度收益和收入超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"In the second quarter of 2021, we broke new and notable records,\" said Tesla in the company's second-quarter update. \"We produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles, achieved an operating margin of 11% and exceeded [$1 billion] of GAAP net income for the first time in our history.\"</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在公司第二季度更新中表示：“2021 年第二季度，我们打破了新的、引人注目的记录。”“我们生产和交付了超过 200,000 辆汽车，实现了 11% 的营业利润率，并有史以来首次超过 [10 亿美元] GAAP 净利润。”</blockquote></p><p> Here's a closer look at the quarter, captured by five must-see takeaways from the report.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对该季度的近距离观察，由报告中的五个必看要点捕捉到。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Revenue hit $12 billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.收入达到120亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Helped by a 121% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries, Tesla's revenue surged 98% year over year to approximately $12 billion. This crushed analysts' average forecast for revenue of $11.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>得益于汽车交付量同比增长 121%，特斯拉的收入同比飙升 98%，达到约 120 亿美元。这打破了分析师对 113 亿美元收入的平均预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Profits skyrocketed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、利润暴涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, with revenue like this, it wasn't surprising to see profits soar. Net income increased from $104 million in the year-ago period to $1.14 billion. Non-GAAP (adjusted) net income increased 258% year over year to $1.6 billion. This translated to non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.45 -- far ahead of a consensus analyst estimate of $0.98.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有了这样的收入，看到利润飙升也就不足为奇了。净利润从去年同期的 1.04 亿美元增至 11.4 亿美元。非 GAAP（调整后）净利润同比增长 258%，达到 16 亿美元。这意味着非 GAAP 每股收益为 1.45 美元，远远高于分析师普遍预期的 0.98 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The outsized growth in Tesla's profits demonstrates the scalability of the company's business model.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉利润的大幅增长证明了该公司商业模式的可扩展性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Free cash flow remains healthy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.自由现金流保持健康</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla once again generated positive free cash flow, or cash flow from operations less capital expenditures. Free cash flow for the period increased from $418 million in the year-ago period to $619 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉再次产生了正的自由现金流，即运营现金流减去资本支出。期内自由现金流从去年同期的 4.18 亿美元增加到 6.19 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Total cash on hand fell from $17.1 billion in the first quarter of 2021 to $16.2 billion but this was primarily due to $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments.</p><p><blockquote>手头现金总额从 2021 年第一季度的 171 亿美元下降至 162 亿美元，但这主要是由于 16 亿美元的净债务和融资租赁还款。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Vehicle demand is robust</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.车辆需求强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla once again said demand for its vehicles achieved record levels. Indeed, demand is so robust that the company is supply constrained. \"Global demand continues to be robust, and we are producing at the limits of available parts supply,\" Tesla explained.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉再次表示，对其汽车的需求达到了创纪录的水平。事实上，需求如此强劲，以至于该公司面临供应限制。“全球需求仍然强劲，我们的生产受到可用零部件供应的限制，”特斯拉解释道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. There's more sharp growth to come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 未来将有更强劲的增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Tesla remains optimistic about its growth trajectory. The company says it continues to expect to grow its total deliveries more than 50% year over year this year. This implies 2021 total deliveries of more than 750,000. So far, Tesla has delivered more than 386,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，特斯拉仍然对其增长轨迹持乐观态度。该公司表示，预计今年总交付量将同比增长 50% 以上。这意味着2021年的总交付量将超过75万辆。到目前为止，特斯拉今年已交付超过 386,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> \"The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain,\" Tesla noted.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉指出：“增长率将取决于我们的设备产能、运营效率以及供应链的能力和稳定性。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Four Challenges to Tesla’s Growth</h4> However,investors are concerned with several factors that may slow Tesla's feverish share price growth soon.</p><p><blockquote><h4>特斯拉增长面临的四大挑战</h4>然而，投资者担心有几个因素可能会很快减缓特斯拉狂热的股价增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is an efficient market, discounting good news and bad news on listed companies. As a result, shares are run-up ahead of good news and sold-off ahead of bad news. Sometimes, Mr. Market—to use Benjamin Graham's terminology—is too optimistic, sending the shares of listed companies well above their fundamental or intrinsic value. Other times, Mr. Market is too pessimistic, sending shares of listed companies well below their intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街是一个高效的市场，贴现上市公司的好消息和坏消息。因此，股价在好消息出现前上涨，在坏消息出现前抛售。有时，市场先生——用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话来说——过于乐观，导致上市公司的股价远高于其基本面或内在价值。其他时候，先生。市场过于悲观，导致上市公司股价远低于其内在价值。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's shares are overvalued by many standards. TipRanks, for instance, estimates Tesla's 12-month-trailing return on equity to be a modest 12.41%, while estimates put Tesla's intrinsic value at $160.11, well below its current price level.</p><p><blockquote>从许多标准来看，特斯拉的股票都被高估了。例如，TipRanks 估计特斯拉过去 12 个月的股本回报率为 12.41%，而估计特斯拉的内在价值为 160.11 美元，远低于其当前价格水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition from Colonizers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>来自殖民者的竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> Once, Tesla had little competition, as the electric vehicle (EV) market it pioneered had little competition from traditional automakers. However, that's no longer the case, as General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, and Toyota are invading the electric market.</p><p><blockquote>曾几何时，特斯拉几乎没有竞争，因为它开创的电动汽车（EV）市场几乎没有来自传统汽车制造商的竞争。然而，情况已不再如此，因为通用汽车、福特、大众和丰田正在入侵电动市场。</blockquote></p><p> These \"colonizers\" of the EV market have the manufacturing experience, expertise, and distribution networks to scale up EV production and cross the \"tipping point\" of bringing EVs to the masses. Meanwhile, the entry of new competitors into the EV market could unleash price competition that will erode Tesla's revenue growth and profit margins. That's something Wall Street is watching closely in quarterly financial statements.</p><p><blockquote>这些电动汽车市场的“殖民者”拥有制造经验、专业知识和分销网络来扩大电动汽车生产规模并跨越将电动汽车推向大众的“临界点”。与此同时，新竞争对手进入电动汽车市场可能会引发价格竞争，从而侵蚀特斯拉的收入增长和利润率。这是华尔街在季度财务报表中密切关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Exposure</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币暴露</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's CEO Elon Musk has an affinity for bitcoin. That's why he has been investing some of the company's cash in digital currency. As of the end of March, Tesla's $1.5 billion investment was worth $2.48 billion, based on the surge in bitcoin in the first quarter. However, that has its risks, too, given bitcoin's volatility.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对比特币情有独钟。这就是为什么他一直将公司的部分现金投资于数字货币。截至3月底，基于第一季度比特币的激增，特斯拉15亿美元的投资价值24.8亿美元。然而，鉴于比特币的波动性，这也有其风险。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to bitcoin's volatility are accounting rules that treat the digital currency as an indefinite-lived intangible asset. Thus, it is subject to impairment losses if its fair value decreases below the carrying value during the assessed reporting period. Companies cannot recover impairment losses for any subsequent increase in fair value until the asset's sale. Tesla reported bitcoin-related impairments of $23 million in Q2 as the price of digital currency dived.</p><p><blockquote>加剧比特币波动性的是将数字货币视为无限期无形资产的会计规则。因此，倘其公平值于评估报告期内下跌至低于账面值，则会出现减值亏损。在出售资产之前，公司不能就任何后续公允价值增加收回减值亏损。随着数字货币价格暴跌，特斯拉报告第二季度与比特币相关的减值为 2300 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising Material Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>材料成本上升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Together with traditional automobile makers, Tesla faces a severe material shortage due to supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to slow down the pace of its feverish growth.</p><p><blockquote>由于COVID-19大流行期间供应链中断，特斯拉与传统汽车制造商一起面临严重的材料短缺，预计这将减缓其狂热增长的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> \"While we're making cars at full speed, the global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,\" Musk told investors. \"For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain,\" adding that there are a wide range of chips that will serve as that brake on growth.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们正在全速制造汽车，但全球芯片短缺情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克告诉投资者。“在今年剩余时间里，我们的增长率将取决于我们供应链中最慢的部分，”他补充说，有多种芯片将成为增长的刹车。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Mixed reviews from Wall Street</h4> Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill said Tesla shares are already priced to perfection, which could explain the stock’s weakness on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><h4>华尔街褒贬不一</h4>Needham 分析师 Rajvindra Gill 说，特斯拉股票的定价已经非常完美，这可以解释该股周二的疲软。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla's ‘priced to perfection’ valuation is hard for us to justify, even with more positive recent Results,” Gill wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“吉尔写道：”即使最近的业绩更加积极，我们也很难证明特斯拉'定价到完美'的估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the quarter likely didn’t change the narrative for bulls or bears, and Tesla is still not a value stock priced at an enterprise multiple of 70x.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas 表示，本季度可能不会改变多头或空头的说法，特斯拉仍然不是一只价值股，企业市盈率为 70 倍。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla is not only among the fastest growing auto companies in the world, it is also one of the most profitable,” Jonas wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“乔纳斯写道：”特斯拉不仅是世界上发展最快的汽车公司之一，也是最赚钱的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said auto gross margins were impressive, but they may not last.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行分析师科林·兰根表示，汽车毛利率令人印象深刻，但可能不会持久。</blockquote></p><p> “We see auto margins moderating in Q3/Q4 due to rising raw mat costs and mix dilution as the lower priced Model Y SR launches in China,” Langran wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“Langran 写道：”我们认为，由于原料垫成本上升以及随着价格较低的 Model Y SR 在中国上市，混合动力稀释，第三季度/第四季度的汽车利润率将会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> John Murphy with B. of A. Securities struck a more cautious tone. Despite the beat, \"competition is fierce and heating up,\" he said. \"(Tesla's) operating environment is shifting from that of a vacuum to an increasingly crowded space.\"</p><p><blockquote>B. of A. Securities 的约翰·墨菲 (John Murphy) 语气更加谨慎。尽管节奏很快，“竞争还是很激烈的，”他说。“（特斯拉的）运营环境正在从真空转向日益拥挤的空间。”</blockquote></p><p> The quarterly beat was \"very much helped by positive pricing dynamics and good execution,\" and Murphy raised his price target on the stock to $800 from $750, which represents an upside around 26% from Tuesday's prices. He kept B. of A.'s neutral rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩“在很大程度上得益于积极的定价动态和良好的执行力”，墨菲将该股的目标价从 750 美元上调至 800 美元，比周二的价格上涨了约 26%。他维持了该股的中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131923658","content_text":"Tesla released Q2 earnings and revenues last week that beat analysts' expectations.\n\"In the second quarter of 2021, we broke new and notable records,\" said Tesla in the company's second-quarter update. \"We produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles, achieved an operating margin of 11% and exceeded [$1 billion] of GAAP net income for the first time in our history.\"\nHere's a closer look at the quarter, captured by five must-see takeaways from the report.\n1. Revenue hit $12 billion\nHelped by a 121% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries, Tesla's revenue surged 98% year over year to approximately $12 billion. This crushed analysts' average forecast for revenue of $11.3 billion.\n2. Profits skyrocketed\nOf course, with revenue like this, it wasn't surprising to see profits soar. Net income increased from $104 million in the year-ago period to $1.14 billion. Non-GAAP (adjusted) net income increased 258% year over year to $1.6 billion. This translated to non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.45 -- far ahead of a consensus analyst estimate of $0.98.\nThe outsized growth in Tesla's profits demonstrates the scalability of the company's business model.\n3. Free cash flow remains healthy\nTesla once again generated positive free cash flow, or cash flow from operations less capital expenditures. Free cash flow for the period increased from $418 million in the year-ago period to $619 million.\nTotal cash on hand fell from $17.1 billion in the first quarter of 2021 to $16.2 billion but this was primarily due to $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments.\n4. Vehicle demand is robust\nTesla once again said demand for its vehicles achieved record levels. Indeed, demand is so robust that the company is supply constrained. \"Global demand continues to be robust, and we are producing at the limits of available parts supply,\" Tesla explained.\n5. There's more sharp growth to come\nImportantly, Tesla remains optimistic about its growth trajectory. The company says it continues to expect to grow its total deliveries more than 50% year over year this year. This implies 2021 total deliveries of more than 750,000. So far, Tesla has delivered more than 386,000 vehicles this year.\n\"The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain,\" Tesla noted.\nFour Challenges to Tesla’s Growth\nHowever,investors are concerned with several factors that may slow Tesla's feverish share price growth soon.\nHigh Valuation\nWall Street is an efficient market, discounting good news and bad news on listed companies. As a result, shares are run-up ahead of good news and sold-off ahead of bad news. Sometimes, Mr. Market—to use Benjamin Graham's terminology—is too optimistic, sending the shares of listed companies well above their fundamental or intrinsic value. Other times, Mr. Market is too pessimistic, sending shares of listed companies well below their intrinsic value.\nTesla's shares are overvalued by many standards. TipRanks, for instance, estimates Tesla's 12-month-trailing return on equity to be a modest 12.41%, while estimates put Tesla's intrinsic value at $160.11, well below its current price level.\nCompetition from Colonizers\nOnce, Tesla had little competition, as the electric vehicle (EV) market it pioneered had little competition from traditional automakers. However, that's no longer the case, as General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, and Toyota are invading the electric market.\nThese \"colonizers\" of the EV market have the manufacturing experience, expertise, and distribution networks to scale up EV production and cross the \"tipping point\" of bringing EVs to the masses. Meanwhile, the entry of new competitors into the EV market could unleash price competition that will erode Tesla's revenue growth and profit margins. That's something Wall Street is watching closely in quarterly financial statements.\nBitcoin Exposure\nTesla's CEO Elon Musk has an affinity for bitcoin. That's why he has been investing some of the company's cash in digital currency. As of the end of March, Tesla's $1.5 billion investment was worth $2.48 billion, based on the surge in bitcoin in the first quarter. However, that has its risks, too, given bitcoin's volatility.\nAdding to bitcoin's volatility are accounting rules that treat the digital currency as an indefinite-lived intangible asset. Thus, it is subject to impairment losses if its fair value decreases below the carrying value during the assessed reporting period. Companies cannot recover impairment losses for any subsequent increase in fair value until the asset's sale. Tesla reported bitcoin-related impairments of $23 million in Q2 as the price of digital currency dived.\nRising Material Costs\nTogether with traditional automobile makers, Tesla faces a severe material shortage due to supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to slow down the pace of its feverish growth.\n\"While we're making cars at full speed, the global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,\" Musk told investors. \"For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain,\" adding that there are a wide range of chips that will serve as that brake on growth.\nMixed reviews from Wall Street\nNeedham analyst Rajvindra Gill said Tesla shares are already priced to perfection, which could explain the stock’s weakness on Tuesday.\n“Tesla's ‘priced to perfection’ valuation is hard for us to justify, even with more positive recent Results,” Gill wrote.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the quarter likely didn’t change the narrative for bulls or bears, and Tesla is still not a value stock priced at an enterprise multiple of 70x.\n“Tesla is not only among the fastest growing auto companies in the world, it is also one of the most profitable,” Jonas wrote.\nWells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said auto gross margins were impressive, but they may not last.\n“We see auto margins moderating in Q3/Q4 due to rising raw mat costs and mix dilution as the lower priced Model Y SR launches in China,” Langran wrote.\nJohn Murphy with B. of A. Securities struck a more cautious tone. Despite the beat, \"competition is fierce and heating up,\" he said. \"(Tesla's) operating environment is shifting from that of a vacuum to an increasingly crowded space.\"\nThe quarterly beat was \"very much helped by positive pricing dynamics and good execution,\" and Murphy raised his price target on the stock to $800 from $750, which represents an upside around 26% from Tuesday's prices. He kept B. of A.'s neutral rating on the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":806833359,"gmtCreate":1627647326771,"gmtModify":1633757479848,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not a good sign","listText":"Not a good sign","text":"Not a good sign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806833359","repostId":"1109167679","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147507330,"gmtCreate":1626362077820,"gmtModify":1633927461344,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will the upward trend sustainable?","listText":"Will the upward trend sustainable?","text":"Will the upward trend sustainable?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147507330","repostId":"1105855063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":861810450,"gmtCreate":1632480565670,"gmtModify":1632719527591,"author":{"id":"3559696317030368","authorId":"3559696317030368","name":"ALVH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51a74fe0719fc4f9e10b19fb4e6e8e9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559696317030368","idStr":"3559696317030368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861810450","repostId":"2169469055","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}