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2021-05-17

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2021-04-20

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2021-05-05

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2021-06-05

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Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>

2021-06-03

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2021-05-23

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2021-05-20

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2021-04-27

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Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>

2021-04-14

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2021-04-05

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3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3只遭受重创的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote>

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Thank you.","listText":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","text":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112995500","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了进入高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了进入高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116179231,"gmtCreate":1622783500223,"gmtModify":1631891799823,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc016cbd559496d431a70e045a7eb6b7","width":"1080","height":"2617"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116179231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116170600,"gmtCreate":1622783418700,"gmtModify":1631891799834,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Boom","listText":"Boom","text":"Boom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116170600","repostId":"2140026421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111452592,"gmtCreate":1622694912016,"gmtModify":1631891799845,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like, thank you.","listText":"Please like, thank you.","text":"Please like, thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111452592","repostId":"1115876867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133492677,"gmtCreate":1621779450199,"gmtModify":1631891799858,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like please.","listText":"Comment and like please.","text":"Comment and like please.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133492677","repostId":"2137990425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130069277,"gmtCreate":1621496419199,"gmtModify":1631891799870,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like. Ty&nbsp;","listText":"Please like. Ty&nbsp;","text":"Please like. Ty","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d7a036df4fec2a953dd195b9ef39a3","width":"1080","height":"2654"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130069277","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130069396,"gmtCreate":1621496391315,"gmtModify":1631891799882,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please comment and like.&nbsp; Ty.","listText":"Please comment and like.&nbsp; Ty.","text":"Please comment and like. 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620309854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188985089?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-06 22:04","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Yale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67<blockquote>耶鲁大学首席投资经理大卫·斯文森去世，享年67岁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188985089","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage th","content":"<p>David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学捐赠基金负责人大卫·斯文森(David Swensen)因癌症去世，享年67岁，他帮助重塑了机构管理资金的方式。</blockquote></p><p>After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.</p><p><blockquote>在所罗门兄弟和雷曼兄弟工作后，斯文森于1985年回到母校领导其投资办公室。当时，捐赠基金的管理通常是保守的，但斯文森大幅改革了这一模式，利用其长期关注的优势，大力投资新兴的私募股权和对冲基金行业。</blockquote></p><p>His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.</p><p><blockquote>他的方法非常成功，彻底改变了捐赠基金和许多其他机构投资者分配资金的方式，“耶鲁模式”传播开来，并帮助改变了更广泛的投资行业。</blockquote></p><p>“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学校长彼得·萨洛维在一份声明中表示：“在他的指导下，耶鲁大学的捐赠基金产生了回报，使他成为机构投资者中的传奇人物。”“作为一名天生的老师，他培养了一代机构投资者，他们后来领导了其他学院和大学的投资办公室，进一步扩大了大卫的影响范围。”</blockquote></p><p>The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年6月，耶鲁投资办公室管理着312亿美元的资产，并表示在过去30年里，该办公室的平均年回报率为12.在2021财年，它的贡献占该大学总收入的三分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p>Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.</p><p><blockquote>几乎四分之一的捐赠基金投资于风险投资，加上私募股权、对冲基金和房地产，所谓的“另类”投资占其资产的近四分之三。</blockquote></p><p><b>Early life and education</b></p><p><blockquote><b>早期生活和教育</b></blockquote></p><p>David F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,<i>A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.</i>One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"</p><p><blockquote>大卫·F·斯文森出生于威斯康星州的里弗福尔斯。他的父亲理查德·斯文森是威斯康星大学里弗福尔斯分校的化学教授兼院长。他的母亲格蕾丝在抚养了六个孩子后，成为了一名路德教牧师。1971年从里弗福尔斯高中毕业后，斯文森选择留在他的家乡里弗福尔斯，并于1975年在威斯康星大学里弗福尔斯分校获得学士学位和学士学位，他的父亲理查德·斯文森是该校的教授。斯文森在耶鲁大学攻读经济学博士学位，<i>公司债券估值模型。</i>斯文森在耶鲁大学的论文导师之一是詹姆斯·托宾，他是约翰·肯尼迪政府的高级经济顾问，也是未来的诺贝尔经济学奖得主。据格林威治联合公司创始人、耶鲁大学投资委员会前主席查尔斯·埃利斯说，“下雪的时候，大卫去吉姆家铲人行道”。詹姆斯·托宾获得诺贝尔奖的原因之一是他在创立现代投资组合理论方面的贡献。斯文森对现代投资组合理论的理念非常着迷。斯文森在2018年的团聚演讲中表示：“对于给定的回报水平，如果你分散投资，你可以以较低的风险获得回报。对于给定的风险水平，如果你分散投资，你可以获得更高的回报。这太酷了！免费午餐！”</blockquote></p><p><b>Investment career</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资生涯</b></blockquote></p><p>Swensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of&nbsp;Connecticut&nbsp;and&nbsp;Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>斯文森于20世纪80年代初开始了他的投资生涯，此后曾为卡内基公司、纽约证券交易所、霍华德休斯医学研究所、考陶德艺术研究所、耶鲁-纽黑文医院、基金会投资基金(TIFF)、DNA McConnell Clark基金会以及康涅狄格州和马萨诸塞州提供咨询服务。</blockquote></p><p><b>Salomon Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>所罗门兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Following his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.</p><p><blockquote>出于对公司债券估值的学术兴趣，斯文森于1980年加入所罗门兄弟公司。这一职业转变是由所罗门兄弟投资银行家、耶鲁校友吉恩·达特尔建议的，他对斯文森印象深刻。1981年，斯文森致力于构建世界上第一个互换协议，这是IBM和世界银行之间的一项交易，允许他们对冲瑞士法郎和德国马克的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lehman Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雷曼兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Prior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers,&nbsp;specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according to<i>When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management</i>byRoger Lowenstein.</p><p><blockquote>在1985年加入耶鲁大学之前，斯文森在华尔街工作了六年，担任雷曼兄弟公司的高级副总裁，专门从事该公司的互换活动，并担任所罗门兄弟公司的合伙人（在加入雷曼兄弟之前，他在这里工作了三年），他的工作重点是开发新的金融技术。斯文森根据<i>当天才失败时：长期资本管理的兴衰</i>作者：罗杰·洛温斯坦。</blockquote></p><p><b>Yale University endowment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶鲁大学捐赠</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Swensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985.&nbsp;This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut.&nbsp;A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>1985年，31岁的斯文森被任命为耶鲁大学捐赠基金经理。这个职位是由斯文森的另一位论文导师、耶鲁大学教务长威廉·布雷纳德提供的。詹姆斯·托宾建议斯文森参选，尽管他以前的学生年龄很小，但他相信他可能是合适的人选。斯文森起初对接受这份工作犹豫不决，因为除了在研究生院的学习之外，他对投资组合管理了解不多。尽管如此，布雷纳德还是说服他接受了这个职位，斯文森从1985年4月1日开始减薪80%。一年后，在1986年，耶鲁大学和管理学院毕业生高桥院长加入了他的行列，他很快成为斯文森信任的副手。1985年，当斯文森开始管理该捐赠基金时，它价值10亿美元；2019年，其价值为294亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005.&nbsp;According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.</p><p><blockquote>截至2005年，该基金管理的年化回报率为16.1%。他被称为“耶鲁80亿美元的人”，因为他从1985年到2005年为大学捐赠了近80亿美元。根据耶鲁前校长、经济学家理查德·莱文的说法，斯文森对耶鲁的“贡献”超过了二十多年来所有捐款的总和。“我们做得更好了，”莱文说，因为斯文森拥有挑选最佳外部基金经理的“不可思议的能力”。斯文森的前员工后来成为其他捐赠基金的经理——包括麻省理工学院、斯坦福大学和普林斯顿大学——在基金财富倍增方面也表现出了令人印象深刻的成果。</blockquote></p><p>In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.</p><p><blockquote>2014年9月，斯文森开始让耶鲁捐赠基金不再投资温室气体排放量大的公司，并在给捐赠基金经理的一封信中表达了耶鲁的偏好。这封信要求他们考虑投资对气候变化的影响，并避免投资于没有做出合理努力减少碳排放的公司。斯文森认为这种方法是一种更微妙、更灵活的方法，而不是直接撤资。</blockquote></p><p>Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of the<i>Yale Daily News</i>. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>2018年3月5日，斯文森因与本科生主编发生争执而成为头条新闻。<i>耶鲁每日新闻</i>斯文森称主编为“懦夫”，因为他在提交给该报的一篇专栏文章中删除了一个不准确的句子和一个脚注；他要求未经编辑发表的专栏回应了一位学生的讲座，该讲座批评了据称在耶鲁投资组合中的公司。</blockquote></p><p><b>Unconventional success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非常规的成功</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2005, Swensen wrote a book called<i>Unconventional Success,</i>which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:</p><p><blockquote>2005年，斯文森写了一本名为<i>非常规的成功，</i>这是个人投资者的投资指南。他提出的总体策略可以归结为以下三点建议：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.</li><li>The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).</li><li>In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).</li></ul>He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>投资者应该构建一个投资组合，将资金分配到6个核心资产类别，在其中分散投资并偏向股票部分。</li><li>投资者应定期重新平衡投资组合（重新平衡回投资组合中资产类别的原始权重）。</li><li>如果对跑赢市场的策略缺乏信心，请投资低成本指数基金和交易所交易基金。投资者应该非常警惕成本，因为一些指数构建不良，一些基金公司收取过高的费用（或产生大量的纳税义务）。</li></ul>他抨击许多共同基金公司收取过高的费用并且没有履行其信托责任。他强调了共同基金固有的利益冲突，声称他们想要高费用、高周转率的基金，而投资者想要相反的基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67<blockquote>耶鲁大学首席投资经理大卫·斯文森去世，享年67岁</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67<blockquote>耶鲁大学首席投资经理大卫·斯文森去世，享年67岁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-06 22:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学捐赠基金负责人大卫·斯文森(David Swensen)因癌症去世，享年67岁，他帮助重塑了机构管理资金的方式。</blockquote></p><p>After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.</p><p><blockquote>在所罗门兄弟和雷曼兄弟工作后，斯文森于1985年回到母校领导其投资办公室。当时，捐赠基金的管理通常是保守的，但斯文森大幅改革了这一模式，利用其长期关注的优势，大力投资新兴的私募股权和对冲基金行业。</blockquote></p><p>His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.</p><p><blockquote>他的方法非常成功，彻底改变了捐赠基金和许多其他机构投资者分配资金的方式，“耶鲁模式”传播开来，并帮助改变了更广泛的投资行业。</blockquote></p><p>“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学校长彼得·萨洛维在一份声明中表示：“在他的指导下，耶鲁大学的捐赠基金产生了回报，使他成为机构投资者中的传奇人物。”“作为一名天生的老师，他培养了一代机构投资者，他们后来领导了其他学院和大学的投资办公室，进一步扩大了大卫的影响范围。”</blockquote></p><p>The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年6月，耶鲁投资办公室管理着312亿美元的资产，并表示在过去30年里，该办公室的平均年回报率为12.在2021财年，它的贡献占该大学总收入的三分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p>Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.</p><p><blockquote>几乎四分之一的捐赠基金投资于风险投资，加上私募股权、对冲基金和房地产，所谓的“另类”投资占其资产的近四分之三。</blockquote></p><p><b>Early life and education</b></p><p><blockquote><b>早期生活和教育</b></blockquote></p><p>David F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,<i>A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.</i>One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"</p><p><blockquote>大卫·F·斯文森出生于威斯康星州的里弗福尔斯。他的父亲理查德·斯文森是威斯康星大学里弗福尔斯分校的化学教授兼院长。他的母亲格蕾丝在抚养了六个孩子后，成为了一名路德教牧师。1971年从里弗福尔斯高中毕业后，斯文森选择留在他的家乡里弗福尔斯，并于1975年在威斯康星大学里弗福尔斯分校获得学士学位和学士学位，他的父亲理查德·斯文森是该校的教授。斯文森在耶鲁大学攻读经济学博士学位，<i>公司债券估值模型。</i>斯文森在耶鲁大学的论文导师之一是詹姆斯·托宾，他是约翰·肯尼迪政府的高级经济顾问，也是未来的诺贝尔经济学奖得主。据格林威治联合公司创始人、耶鲁大学投资委员会前主席查尔斯·埃利斯说，“下雪的时候，大卫去吉姆家铲人行道”。詹姆斯·托宾获得诺贝尔奖的原因之一是他在创立现代投资组合理论方面的贡献。斯文森对现代投资组合理论的理念非常着迷。斯文森在2018年的团聚演讲中表示：“对于给定的回报水平，如果你分散投资，你可以以较低的风险获得回报。对于给定的风险水平，如果你分散投资，你可以获得更高的回报。这太酷了！免费午餐！”</blockquote></p><p><b>Investment career</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资生涯</b></blockquote></p><p>Swensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of&nbsp;Connecticut&nbsp;and&nbsp;Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>斯文森于20世纪80年代初开始了他的投资生涯，此后曾为卡内基公司、纽约证券交易所、霍华德休斯医学研究所、考陶德艺术研究所、耶鲁-纽黑文医院、基金会投资基金(TIFF)、DNA McConnell Clark基金会以及康涅狄格州和马萨诸塞州提供咨询服务。</blockquote></p><p><b>Salomon Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>所罗门兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Following his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.</p><p><blockquote>出于对公司债券估值的学术兴趣，斯文森于1980年加入所罗门兄弟公司。这一职业转变是由所罗门兄弟投资银行家、耶鲁校友吉恩·达特尔建议的，他对斯文森印象深刻。1981年，斯文森致力于构建世界上第一个互换协议，这是IBM和世界银行之间的一项交易，允许他们对冲瑞士法郎和德国马克的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lehman Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雷曼兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Prior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers,&nbsp;specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according to<i>When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management</i>byRoger Lowenstein.</p><p><blockquote>在1985年加入耶鲁大学之前，斯文森在华尔街工作了六年，担任雷曼兄弟公司的高级副总裁，专门从事该公司的互换活动，并担任所罗门兄弟公司的合伙人（在加入雷曼兄弟之前，他在这里工作了三年），他的工作重点是开发新的金融技术。斯文森根据<i>当天才失败时：长期资本管理的兴衰</i>作者：罗杰·洛温斯坦。</blockquote></p><p><b>Yale University endowment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶鲁大学捐赠</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Swensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985.&nbsp;This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut.&nbsp;A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>1985年，31岁的斯文森被任命为耶鲁大学捐赠基金经理。这个职位是由斯文森的另一位论文导师、耶鲁大学教务长威廉·布雷纳德提供的。詹姆斯·托宾建议斯文森参选，尽管他以前的学生年龄很小，但他相信他可能是合适的人选。斯文森起初对接受这份工作犹豫不决，因为除了在研究生院的学习之外，他对投资组合管理了解不多。尽管如此，布雷纳德还是说服他接受了这个职位，斯文森从1985年4月1日开始减薪80%。一年后，在1986年，耶鲁大学和管理学院毕业生高桥院长加入了他的行列，他很快成为斯文森信任的副手。1985年，当斯文森开始管理该捐赠基金时，它价值10亿美元；2019年，其价值为294亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005.&nbsp;According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.</p><p><blockquote>截至2005年，该基金管理的年化回报率为16.1%。他被称为“耶鲁80亿美元的人”，因为他从1985年到2005年为大学捐赠了近80亿美元。根据耶鲁前校长、经济学家理查德·莱文的说法，斯文森对耶鲁的“贡献”超过了二十多年来所有捐款的总和。“我们做得更好了，”莱文说，因为斯文森拥有挑选最佳外部基金经理的“不可思议的能力”。斯文森的前员工后来成为其他捐赠基金的经理——包括麻省理工学院、斯坦福大学和普林斯顿大学——在基金财富倍增方面也表现出了令人印象深刻的成果。</blockquote></p><p>In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.</p><p><blockquote>2014年9月，斯文森开始让耶鲁捐赠基金不再投资温室气体排放量大的公司，并在给捐赠基金经理的一封信中表达了耶鲁的偏好。这封信要求他们考虑投资对气候变化的影响，并避免投资于没有做出合理努力减少碳排放的公司。斯文森认为这种方法是一种更微妙、更灵活的方法，而不是直接撤资。</blockquote></p><p>Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of the<i>Yale Daily News</i>. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>2018年3月5日，斯文森因与本科生主编发生争执而成为头条新闻。<i>耶鲁每日新闻</i>斯文森称主编为“懦夫”，因为他在提交给该报的一篇专栏文章中删除了一个不准确的句子和一个脚注；他要求未经编辑发表的专栏回应了一位学生的讲座，该讲座批评了据称在耶鲁投资组合中的公司。</blockquote></p><p><b>Unconventional success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非常规的成功</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2005, Swensen wrote a book called<i>Unconventional Success,</i>which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:</p><p><blockquote>2005年，斯文森写了一本名为<i>非常规的成功，</i>这是个人投资者的投资指南。他提出的总体策略可以归结为以下三点建议：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.</li><li>The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).</li><li>In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).</li></ul>He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>投资者应该构建一个投资组合，将资金分配到6个核心资产类别，在其中分散投资并偏向股票部分。</li><li>投资者应定期重新平衡投资组合（重新平衡回投资组合中资产类别的原始权重）。</li><li>如果对跑赢市场的策略缺乏信心，请投资低成本指数基金和交易所交易基金。投资者应该非常警惕成本，因为一些指数构建不良，一些基金公司收取过高的费用（或产生大量的纳税义务）。</li></ul>他抨击许多共同基金公司收取过高的费用并且没有履行其信托责任。他强调了共同基金固有的利益冲突，声称他们想要高费用、高周转率的基金，而投资者想要相反的基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188985089","content_text":"David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.Early life and educationDavid F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"Investment careerSwensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of Connecticut and Massachusetts.Salomon BrothersFollowing his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.Lehman BrothersPrior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers, specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according toWhen Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital ManagementbyRoger Lowenstein.Yale University endowmentSwensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985. This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut. A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005. According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of theYale Daily News. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.Unconventional successIn 2005, Swensen wrote a book calledUnconventional Success,which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102256273,"gmtCreate":1620220686592,"gmtModify":1634206899714,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","listText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","text":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102256273","repostId":"2132510807","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102256116,"gmtCreate":1620220657735,"gmtModify":1634206899957,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102256116","repostId":"2133523892","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":195176051,"gmtCreate":1621266098973,"gmtModify":1634192903349,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please comment and like, thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please comment and like, thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please comment and like, thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195176051","repostId":"2135984810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373525897,"gmtCreate":1618874300119,"gmtModify":1634290298972,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp; thank you.","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp; thank you.","text":"Like and comment please thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373525897","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102256273,"gmtCreate":1620220686592,"gmtModify":1634206899714,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","listText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","text":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102256273","repostId":"2132510807","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112995500,"gmtCreate":1622841172100,"gmtModify":1631891799809,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","listText":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","text":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112995500","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了进入高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了进入高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111452592,"gmtCreate":1622694912016,"gmtModify":1631891799845,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like, thank you.","listText":"Please like, thank you.","text":"Please like, thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111452592","repostId":"1115876867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133492677,"gmtCreate":1621779450199,"gmtModify":1631891799858,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like please.","listText":"Comment and like please.","text":"Comment and like please.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133492677","repostId":"2137990425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130069396,"gmtCreate":1621496391315,"gmtModify":1631891799882,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please comment and like.&nbsp; Ty.","listText":"Please comment and like.&nbsp; Ty.","text":"Please comment and like. Ty.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130069396","repostId":"1126891253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377988867,"gmtCreate":1619489369159,"gmtModify":1634212339158,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like, thank you.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like, thank you.&nbsp;","text":"Please like, thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377988867","repostId":"1190086074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190086074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619480390,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190086074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190086074","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be deliv","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉报告本季度净利润达到创纪录的4.38亿美元，每股收益为93美分，营收为103.9亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报中表示，通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。</li><li>在财报看涨期权上，首席执行官Elon Musk表示，该公司推迟的新版Model S轿车将于2021年5月开始交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币销售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现，与Refinitiv编制的分析师预期相比：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股93美分，预期每股79美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9亿美元，预期为102.9亿美元，同比增长74%</li></ul>按GAAP计算，净利润达到季度创纪录的4.38亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信贷销售中获得了5.18亿美元的收入。本季度比特币销售还带来了1.01亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Elon Musk的电动汽车业务报告称，第一季度Model 3和Model Y汽车交付量为18.48万辆，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至3月份，该公司没有生产任何高端Model S轿车或Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了2,020辆旧款Model S轿车和Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，Musk表示，该公司新版Model S轿车最终将于2021年5月开始向客户交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。Musk和CFO Zachary Kirkhorn均表示，供应链问题可能仍是特斯拉今年面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月（在2020年第四季度财报更新期间），马斯克曾表示Model S Plaid已经投入生产，并将于2021年2月开始交付。但他周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“存在比预期更多的挑战”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产2,000辆Model S和X汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计2021年汽车交付量总体增长将超过50%，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为75万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过100%，但服务中心仅增长28%，移动服务车队仅增长22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩张跟不上车辆销量的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，它通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，部分克服了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。它没有透露新供应商的名称。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常声称的摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的FSD（全自动驾驶）团队完全专注于向基于视觉的自动驾驶系统发展，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报中表示。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年同期相比，特斯拉能源发电和存储业务的收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新冠疫情是一种新兴流行病，导致其能源业务放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将其太阳能屋顶的价格提高了50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦片）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些恼怒的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在2021年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为“巨型分布式公用事业公司”，可以帮助现有电力公司在需求和极端天气事件增加时为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商的电池生产或组合，以便在2021年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>Musk表示，该公司自主开发并在加州Fremont的一家试点工厂生产的4680电池还不够可靠，无法用特斯拉汽车运输。他表示，特斯拉可能会在12至18个月内“实现批量生产”这些电池。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它购买了15亿美元的比特币，并可能在未来投资其他加密货币。到4月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在其现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值2.72亿美元的“数字资产”，可能是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉报告本季度净利润达到创纪录的4.38亿美元，每股收益为93美分，营收为103.9亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报中表示，通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。</li><li>在财报看涨期权上，首席执行官Elon Musk表示，该公司推迟的新版Model S轿车将于2021年5月开始交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币销售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现，与Refinitiv编制的分析师预期相比：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股93美分，预期每股79美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9亿美元，预期为102.9亿美元，同比增长74%</li></ul>按GAAP计算，净利润达到季度创纪录的4.38亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信贷销售中获得了5.18亿美元的收入。本季度比特币销售还带来了1.01亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Elon Musk的电动汽车业务报告称，第一季度Model 3和Model Y汽车交付量为18.48万辆，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至3月份，该公司没有生产任何高端Model S轿车或Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了2,020辆旧款Model S轿车和Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，Musk表示，该公司新版Model S轿车最终将于2021年5月开始向客户交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。Musk和CFO Zachary Kirkhorn均表示，供应链问题可能仍是特斯拉今年面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月（在2020年第四季度财报更新期间），马斯克曾表示Model S Plaid已经投入生产，并将于2021年2月开始交付。但他周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“存在比预期更多的挑战”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产2,000辆Model S和X汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计2021年汽车交付量总体增长将超过50%，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为75万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过100%，但服务中心仅增长28%，移动服务车队仅增长22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩张跟不上车辆销量的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，它通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，部分克服了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。它没有透露新供应商的名称。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常声称的摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的FSD（全自动驾驶）团队完全专注于向基于视觉的自动驾驶系统发展，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报中表示。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年同期相比，特斯拉能源发电和存储业务的收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新冠疫情是一种新兴流行病，导致其能源业务放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将其太阳能屋顶的价格提高了50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦片）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些恼怒的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在2021年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为“巨型分布式公用事业公司”，可以帮助现有电力公司在需求和极端天气事件增加时为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商的电池生产或组合，以便在2021年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>Musk表示，该公司自主开发并在加州Fremont的一家试点工厂生产的4680电池还不够可靠，无法用特斯拉汽车运输。他表示，特斯拉可能会在12至18个月内“实现批量生产”这些电池。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它购买了15亿美元的比特币，并可能在未来投资其他加密货币。到4月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在其现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值2.72亿美元的“数字资产”，可能是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190086074","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.Tesla reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:Earnings:93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expectedRevenue:$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year agoNet profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from sales of bitcoin during the quarter.CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter vehicle deliveries of 184,800 Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some vexed customers.Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.The company revealed in February it purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344184590,"gmtCreate":1618388265010,"gmtModify":1634293306399,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like. Thank you.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like. Thank you.&nbsp;","text":"Please like. Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344184590","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349341186,"gmtCreate":1617552623345,"gmtModify":1634520553414,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349341186","repostId":"1188150614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188150614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366389,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188150614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3只遭受重创的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188150614","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in theNasdaq-100index trounced the staid giants in theDow Jones Industrial Average. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, ho","content":"<p>Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in the<b>Nasdaq-100</b>index trounced the staid giants in the<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.</p><p><blockquote>市场轮动的萎靡已经感染了许多投资者。去年，成长股<b>纳斯达克100指数</b>指数击败了稳重的巨头<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>.不过，2021年到目前为止，情况有所不同。大笔资金似乎正在转向所谓的“避险”股票。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices.&nbsp;Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.</p><p><blockquote>结果，许多几个月前雄心勃勃的人现在都陷入了低迷。有些甚至比今年早些时候创下的峰值下降了30%以上。然而，乌云中也有一线希望：相当多具有强劲增长前景的股票可以打折购买。这里有三只遭受重创的股票，它们甚至可以让你的钱翻倍甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b></p><p><blockquote><b>皮肤技术</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b>(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.</p><p><blockquote><b>皮肤技术</b>（纳斯达克：DMTK）推出了一款令人兴奋的产品：一种皮肤基因组学测试，可以比手术活检更准确、更便宜地检测黑色素瘤。截至2月第三周，其股价今年迄今已飙升超过145%。不过，自那以来，医疗保健股已下跌超过35%。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>部分问题在于前面提到的成长型股票的普遍抛售。然而，DermTech在第四季度更新中也提供了令人失望的指引。该公司预计第一季度检测收入在160万美元至190万美元之间，而第四季度检测收入为160万美元。</blockquote></p><p> DermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech在接触医生方面仍然面临一些新冠肺炎的阻力。不过，该公司的长期增长前景仍然光明。DermTech继续为其首款产品色素性病变检测(PLA)获得商业付款人报销。它预计明年将推出一项家庭基因组学测试，以识别紫外线损伤和皮肤癌风险。</blockquote></p><p> The total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech针对所有类型皮肤癌的潜在美国市场总额约为100亿美元。由于该公司的市值目前低于15亿美元，DermTech应该只需占领这个市场的一小部分，就可以为投资者带来巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gores Holdings VI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>戈尔斯控股VI</b></blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit.&nbsp;<b>Gores Holdings VI</b>(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）股票不久前广受欢迎。这已经改变了很多。<b>戈尔斯控股VI</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GHVI）就是一个很好的例子：截至2月中旬，SPAC的股价今年迄今飙升了120%以上，但现在较高点下跌了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Gores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.</p><p><blockquote>Gores Holdings VI和空间数据公司Matterport于2月8日宣布，他们计划合并，Matterport将以约29亿美元的股权价值上市。但Matterport应该能够相对较快地发展得更大。</blockquote></p><p> Matterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firm<b>Accenture</b>recently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Matterport十年前开创了空间数据市场。该公司的技术可以创建任何物理空间的3D“数字孪生”。咨询公司<b>埃森哲</b>最近将数字孪生技术选为2021年五大技术趋势之一。</blockquote></p><p> The company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经拥有超过250,000名客户，其中包括财富1000强中的13%。然而，目前全球40多亿栋建筑中只有不到1%实现了数字化。这对Matterport来说意味着2400亿美元的机会。该公司预计2022年收入将增长近一倍，随后几年增长将加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b></p><p><blockquote><b>斯基尔茨</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b>(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>斯基尔茨</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）是这三只遭受重创的股票中跌幅最大的。截至2月初，这家移动游戏平台提供商的股价飙升近120%，但随后又回吐了全部涨幅，甚至部分涨幅。今年迄今为止，该股已下跌超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> Like DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.</p><p><blockquote>与DermTech和Gores Holdings VI一样，Skillz也受到了市场远离成长型股票的负面影响。然而，该公司公开发行出售1700万股股票的决定也造成了伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz以竞争为中心的方法比其他领先的在线平台更能吸引用户。它也推动了巨大的增长。该公司的收入在2020年几乎翻了一番。Skillz在将用户转化为付费客户方面尤其取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> The mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.</p><p><blockquote>去年移动游戏市场总额为860亿美元，并继续快速增长。随着Skillz在国际上扩张并在其平台上添加新类型的游戏，它应该能够增加其市场份额。该公司与NFL的多年协议也可能带来巨大推动。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz看起来像是一只可以轻松让你的钱翻倍的股票，并且在未来几年内可能会带来比这更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3只遭受重创的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3只遭受重创的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in the<b>Nasdaq-100</b>index trounced the staid giants in the<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.</p><p><blockquote>市场轮动的萎靡已经感染了许多投资者。去年，成长股<b>纳斯达克100指数</b>指数击败了稳重的巨头<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>.不过，2021年到目前为止，情况有所不同。大笔资金似乎正在转向所谓的“避险”股票。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices.&nbsp;Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.</p><p><blockquote>结果，许多几个月前雄心勃勃的人现在都陷入了低迷。有些甚至比今年早些时候创下的峰值下降了30%以上。然而，乌云中也有一线希望：相当多具有强劲增长前景的股票可以打折购买。这里有三只遭受重创的股票，它们甚至可以让你的钱翻倍甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b></p><p><blockquote><b>皮肤技术</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b>(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.</p><p><blockquote><b>皮肤技术</b>（纳斯达克：DMTK）推出了一款令人兴奋的产品：一种皮肤基因组学测试，可以比手术活检更准确、更便宜地检测黑色素瘤。截至2月第三周，其股价今年迄今已飙升超过145%。不过，自那以来，医疗保健股已下跌超过35%。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>部分问题在于前面提到的成长型股票的普遍抛售。然而，DermTech在第四季度更新中也提供了令人失望的指引。该公司预计第一季度检测收入在160万美元至190万美元之间，而第四季度检测收入为160万美元。</blockquote></p><p> DermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech在接触医生方面仍然面临一些新冠肺炎的阻力。不过，该公司的长期增长前景仍然光明。DermTech继续为其首款产品色素性病变检测(PLA)获得商业付款人报销。它预计明年将推出一项家庭基因组学测试，以识别紫外线损伤和皮肤癌风险。</blockquote></p><p> The total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech针对所有类型皮肤癌的潜在美国市场总额约为100亿美元。由于该公司的市值目前低于15亿美元，DermTech应该只需占领这个市场的一小部分，就可以为投资者带来巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gores Holdings VI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>戈尔斯控股VI</b></blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit.&nbsp;<b>Gores Holdings VI</b>(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）股票不久前广受欢迎。这已经改变了很多。<b>戈尔斯控股VI</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GHVI）就是一个很好的例子：截至2月中旬，SPAC的股价今年迄今飙升了120%以上，但现在较高点下跌了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Gores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.</p><p><blockquote>Gores Holdings VI和空间数据公司Matterport于2月8日宣布，他们计划合并，Matterport将以约29亿美元的股权价值上市。但Matterport应该能够相对较快地发展得更大。</blockquote></p><p> Matterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firm<b>Accenture</b>recently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Matterport十年前开创了空间数据市场。该公司的技术可以创建任何物理空间的3D“数字孪生”。咨询公司<b>埃森哲</b>最近将数字孪生技术选为2021年五大技术趋势之一。</blockquote></p><p> The company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经拥有超过250,000名客户，其中包括财富1000强中的13%。然而，目前全球40多亿栋建筑中只有不到1%实现了数字化。这对Matterport来说意味着2400亿美元的机会。该公司预计2022年收入将增长近一倍，随后几年增长将加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b></p><p><blockquote><b>斯基尔茨</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b>(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>斯基尔茨</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）是这三只遭受重创的股票中跌幅最大的。截至2月初，这家移动游戏平台提供商的股价飙升近120%，但随后又回吐了全部涨幅，甚至部分涨幅。今年迄今为止，该股已下跌超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> Like DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.</p><p><blockquote>与DermTech和Gores Holdings VI一样，Skillz也受到了市场远离成长型股票的负面影响。然而，该公司公开发行出售1700万股股票的决定也造成了伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz以竞争为中心的方法比其他领先的在线平台更能吸引用户。它也推动了巨大的增长。该公司的收入在2020年几乎翻了一番。Skillz在将用户转化为付费客户方面尤其取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> The mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.</p><p><blockquote>去年移动游戏市场总额为860亿美元，并继续快速增长。随着Skillz在国际上扩张并在其平台上添加新类型的游戏，它应该能够增加其市场份额。该公司与NFL的多年协议也可能带来巨大推动。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz看起来像是一只可以轻松让你的钱翻倍的股票，并且在未来几年内可能会带来比这更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/3-beaten-down-stocks-that-could-double-your-money/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/3-beaten-down-stocks-that-could-double-your-money/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188150614","content_text":"Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in theNasdaq-100index trounced the staid giants in theDow Jones Industrial Average. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.\nAs a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices. Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.\nDermTech\nDermTech(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.\nPart of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.\nDermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.\nThe total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.\nGores Holdings VI\nSpecial purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit. Gores Holdings VI(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.\nGores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.\nMatterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firmAccenturerecently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.\nThe company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.\nSkillz\nSkillz(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.\nLike DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.\nSkillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.\nThe mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.\nSkillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}