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10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183475424","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li> <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li> <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li> <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li> <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li> <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li> <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li> <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li> <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183475424","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.\nWhile rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.\nApple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.\nIts strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.\nAs such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.\n\nguvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAs one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.\nAnd Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.\nSource: Bloomberg\nWhile rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.\nWith the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.\nFY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects\nFiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.\nKey Developments in Products\niPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.\nMac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.\nRecent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.\nKey Developments in Services\nOn the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.\nContinued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.\nCurrently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.\nKey Catalysts Ahead\nApple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.\nOver the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.\nSpeculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.\nWhile Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.\nValuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases\nAdjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.\n\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.\nDrawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nThe revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.\nThe valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820271041,"gmtCreate":1633398374194,"gmtModify":1633398374593,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820271041","repostId":"1118300110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118300110","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633395826,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118300110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-05 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 reasons why airline stocks are screaming buys<blockquote>航空股大卖的 3 个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118300110","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the airline space, but the time to buy is now, arg","content":"<p><div> The COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the airline space, but the time to buy is now, argues Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker. Shanker cites three reasons for his bullish call. First, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摩根士丹利分析师拉维·尚克尔 (Ravi Shanker) 表示，新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 大流行继续对航空业造成严重破坏，但现在是购买的时机。尚克列举了他看涨看涨期权的三个原因。首先，...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-airline-stocks-are-screaming-buys-analyst-172225207.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-airline-stocks-are-screaming-buys-analyst-172225207.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 reasons why airline stocks are screaming buys<blockquote>航空股大卖的 3 个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 reasons why airline stocks are screaming buys<blockquote>航空股大卖的 3 个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-05 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the airline space, but the time to buy is now, argues Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker. Shanker cites three reasons for his bullish call. First, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摩根士丹利分析师拉维·尚克尔 (Ravi Shanker) 表示，新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 大流行继续对航空业造成严重破坏，但现在是购买的时机。尚克列举了他看涨看涨期权的三个原因。首先，...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-airline-stocks-are-screaming-buys-analyst-172225207.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-airline-stocks-are-screaming-buys-analyst-172225207.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-airline-stocks-are-screaming-buys-analyst-172225207.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DAL":"达美航空","LUV":"西南航空","AAL":"美国航空"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-airline-stocks-are-screaming-buys-analyst-172225207.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118300110","content_text":"The COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the airline space, but the time to buy is now, argues Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker.\nShanker cites three reasons for his bullish call.\nFirst, the sector could see positive news flow into year-end as vaccinations continue for COVID-19 and international travel restrictions are lifted. To that end, the Biden administration said recently it would lift restrictions for fully vaccinated travelers to enter the U.S.starting in November.\nSecondarily, Shanker believes the bad news for the sector on the COVID front peaked in the third quarter. That suggests an improving runway for airline sector margins, according to Shanker's research.\nAnd lastly, Shanker thinks December analyst days for the airline sector will be \"very bullish\" with respect to 2022 and 2023 financial targets.\nTo be sure, airline stocks have begun to lift off over the last few weeks as investors begin to price in brighter skies in 2022. Analysts such as Shanker point to news of Merck's potential new COVID-19 pill as being particularly friendly to airline stocks of late.\nShares of SouthWest Airlines, Delta Air Lines , American Airlines and United Airlines have all gainedmore than 10% in the past month, perYahoo Finance Plus data. Spirit Airlines and JetBlue Airways have tacked on 9.8% and 9.3% during that same stretch.\nMeanwhile, The NYSE Arca Airline Index is up 8% in the the last month.\nNot every analyst is on board with Shanker's upbeat view on the sector, however. Some such as BofA's Andrew Didora advise a more disciplined approach to playing the airline recovery.\n\"While near term demand and cost pressures lower our 2H21E EPS for the industry, in our view, the overall trajectory of the recovery remains unchanged. We remain more cautious on corporate and continue to favor Southwest/Alaska Air given their strong balance sheets, and leisure oriented carriers such as Allegiant given little competition on its routes,\" said Didora in a note to clients.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DAL":0.9,"AAL":0.9,"LUV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867541725,"gmtCreate":1633304228883,"gmtModify":1633304229315,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867541725","repostId":"2172962784","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860386145,"gmtCreate":1632136195287,"gmtModify":1632802622475,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"See this headline everyday","listText":"See this headline everyday","text":"See this headline everyday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860386145","repostId":"1117610618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117610618","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632126033,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117610618?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 16:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>一些中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117610618","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 20) Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.","content":"<p>(Sept 20) Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月20日）部分中国概念股盘前交易下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc0bfb5f2f1bc4d2f48c30ba44145250\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>一些中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 16:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 20) Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月20日）部分中国概念股盘前交易下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc0bfb5f2f1bc4d2f48c30ba44145250\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117610618","content_text":"(Sept 20) Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887726966,"gmtCreate":1632101335055,"gmtModify":1632802851754,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887726966","repostId":"2168089015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887154139,"gmtCreate":1632011398121,"gmtModify":1632804878783,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887154139","repostId":"1171558890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171558890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631921912,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171558890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-18 07:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化的 IPO 周 14</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171558890","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billio","content":"<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏天可能已经过去，但 IPO 市场正在升温，未来一周将有 14 家 IPO 筹集 53 亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费产品、支付技术等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>新鲜作品</b>(FRSH) 计划以 96 亿美元的市值筹集 8.55 亿美元。该公司的核心产品是客户支持软件，同时还提供 IT 服务管理软件和 CRM 解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&M支出而增加，但截至2021年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长，并保留了100%以上的净美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company <b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿开发</b>（KDC）计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种不同类别的产品，其产品由其品牌合作伙伴在70多个国家销售。尽管使用发行收益来偿还债务，诺尔顿在首次公开募股后仍将受到杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor <b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST) 计划以 179 亿美元的市值筹集 6.85 亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在 2021 年上半年的 ARR 增长超过 100%，但历史上一直没有盈利，而且随着餐馆重新开业带来的利好减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm <b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>汇款全球</b>（RELY）计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly 为超过 135 个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球 1,700 多个走廊。该公司表现出增长和利润率的改善，尽管它仍然没有盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm <b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN) 计划以 37 亿美元的市值筹集 4.5 亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多个客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在首次公开募股中购买价值 1.5 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company <b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>Sovos品牌</b>（SOVO）计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International成立，提供一系列精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s在意大利面和披萨酱类别中排名第一。Sovos 盈利且增长稳健，将在 IPO 后发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider <b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT) 计划以 41 亿美元的市值筹集 3.49 亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性的客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider <b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 3 亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。该公司为超过 50% 的财富 100 强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同，尽管它在竞争激烈的市场中运营。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer <b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT) 计划以 14 亿美元筹集 2.5 亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过37万名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform <b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>在线时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA) 计划以 23 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的专注于数字的时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已成功扩张 Princess Polly，并在美国发展其品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker <b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>线索健康</b>(HLTH) 计划以 24 亿美元的市值筹集 2 亿美元。Cue 首个用于 Cue 健康监测系统的商业化诊断测试是其 COVID-19 检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个 EUA 的授权。Cue 还有五个额外的测试试剂盒处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在 2022 年下半年开始寻求 FDA 的授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company <b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK) 计划以 8.55 亿美元的市值筹集 1.38 亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo 拥有超过 21,000 台专用计算机（采矿机），每秒可生成超过 1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller <b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN) 计划以 8.92 亿美元的市值筹集 1.26 亿美元。公司的垂直整合品牌 Thorne 和 Onegevity 提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。盈利且增长强劲，索恩拥有超过 300 万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank <b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>（VBNK）计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是一家加拿大附表I特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元的资产、16亿美元的贷款、15亿美元的存款和2.02亿美元的股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化的 IPO 周 14</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化的 IPO 周 14</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-18 07:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏天可能已经过去，但 IPO 市场正在升温，未来一周将有 14 家 IPO 筹集 53 亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费产品、支付技术等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>新鲜作品</b>(FRSH) 计划以 96 亿美元的市值筹集 8.55 亿美元。该公司的核心产品是客户支持软件，同时还提供 IT 服务管理软件和 CRM 解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&M支出而增加，但截至2021年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长，并保留了100%以上的净美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company <b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿开发</b>（KDC）计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种不同类别的产品，其产品由其品牌合作伙伴在70多个国家销售。尽管使用发行收益来偿还债务，诺尔顿在首次公开募股后仍将受到杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor <b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST) 计划以 179 亿美元的市值筹集 6.85 亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在 2021 年上半年的 ARR 增长超过 100%，但历史上一直没有盈利，而且随着餐馆重新开业带来的利好减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm <b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>汇款全球</b>（RELY）计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly 为超过 135 个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球 1,700 多个走廊。该公司表现出增长和利润率的改善，尽管它仍然没有盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm <b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN) 计划以 37 亿美元的市值筹集 4.5 亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多个客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在首次公开募股中购买价值 1.5 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company <b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>Sovos品牌</b>（SOVO）计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International成立，提供一系列精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s在意大利面和披萨酱类别中排名第一。Sovos 盈利且增长稳健，将在 IPO 后发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider <b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT) 计划以 41 亿美元的市值筹集 3.49 亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性的客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider <b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 3 亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。该公司为超过 50% 的财富 100 强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同，尽管它在竞争激烈的市场中运营。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer <b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT) 计划以 14 亿美元筹集 2.5 亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过37万名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform <b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>在线时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA) 计划以 23 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的专注于数字的时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已成功扩张 Princess Polly，并在美国发展其品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker <b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>线索健康</b>(HLTH) 计划以 24 亿美元的市值筹集 2 亿美元。Cue 首个用于 Cue 健康监测系统的商业化诊断测试是其 COVID-19 检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个 EUA 的授权。Cue 还有五个额外的测试试剂盒处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在 2022 年下半年开始寻求 FDA 的授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company <b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK) 计划以 8.55 亿美元的市值筹集 1.38 亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo 拥有超过 21,000 台专用计算机（采矿机），每秒可生成超过 1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller <b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN) 计划以 8.92 亿美元的市值筹集 1.26 亿美元。公司的垂直整合品牌 Thorne 和 Onegevity 提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。盈利且增长强劲，索恩拥有超过 300 万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank <b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>（VBNK）计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是一家加拿大附表I特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元的资产、16亿美元的贷款、15亿美元的存款和2.02亿美元的股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOVO":"Sovos Brands, Inc.","AKA":"a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.","TOST":"Toast, Inc.","HLTH":"TEMA HEALTHCARE AI ETF","ARBK":"Argo Blockchain Plc","BRLT":"Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.","FRSH":"Freshworks","RELY":"Remitly Global, Inc.","CWAN":"Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171558890","content_text":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.\nThe largest deal of the week,Freshworks(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.\nCanadian consumer products company Knowlton Development(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.\nRestaurant payment processor Toast(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.\nGlobal money transfer firm Remitly Global(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.\nSoftware firm Clearwater Analytics(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.\nFood company Sovos Brands(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.\nCustomer engagement software provider EngageSmart(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.\nHiring solutions provider Sterling Check(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.\nJewelry retailer Brilliant Earth Group(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.\nOnline fashion platform a.k.a. Brands(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.\nCOVID-19 test maker Cue Health(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.\nLondon-listed crypto mining company Argo Blockchain(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.\nPersonalized supplements seller Thorne Healthtech(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.\nCanadian bank VersaBank(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"THRN":0.9,"BRLT":0.9,"KDC":0.9,"CWAN":0.9,"ESMT":0.9,"SOVO":0.9,"STER":0.9,"AKA":0.9,"HLTH":0.9,"RELY":0.9,"TOST":0.9,"FRSH":0.9,"ARBK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884814380,"gmtCreate":1631878212740,"gmtModify":1632805642912,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884814380","repostId":"1139296336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139296336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631871404,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139296336?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 17:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Lululemon Stock A Buy Or Sell After Q2 Earnings? Key Risk Is Lower-Than-Expected Profitability<blockquote>Lululemon 股票在第二季度财报公布后是买入还是卖出？主要风险是盈利能力低于预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139296336","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nLululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the pa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Lululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the past few months, as a result of better-than-expected financial performance in 1H 2021.</li> <li>LULU achieved strong top line and bottom line growth in Q2 2021 which also beat market expectations, but lower-than-expected profitability for the company going forward is a key downside risk.</li> <li>I see Lululemon stock as Hold after Q2 earnings, as its valuations are expensive, and an earnings miss in the future could de-rate its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5831fd8e2c9cd8844c973c0f757a56\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>jentakespictures/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于 2021 年上半年的财务业绩好于预期，Lululemon 的股价在过去几个月中表现远好于主要基准股指。</li><li>LULU在2021年第二季度实现了强劲的营收和利润增长，也超出了市场预期，但公司未来的盈利能力低于预期是一个关键的下行风险。</li><li>我认为 Lululemon 股票在第二季度财报公布后持有，因为其估值昂贵，而且未来盈利失败可能会降低其股价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jentakespictures/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Elevator Pitch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电梯俯仰</b></blockquote></p><p> I assign a Neutral rating to Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU).</p><p><blockquote>我对 Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) 给予中性评级。</blockquote></p><p> Lululemon has delivered significant stock price outperformance as compared to the major benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months, and the stock's current valuations are not that appealing following its recent share price run. Larger-than-expected investments in the near future, an unfavorable sales mix with the introduction of new footwear products next year, and potential supply chain disruptions could be a potential drag on LULU's forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与过去几个月的主要基准股票指数相比，Lululemon 的股价表现显着优于主要基准股票指数，而且在最近的股价上涨之后，该股目前的估值并不那么有吸引力。近期投资超出预期、明年推出新鞋产品带来的不利销售组合以及潜在的供应链中断可能会拖累 LULU 的未来盈利。</blockquote></p><p> My rating for Lululemon is a Hold or Neutral. On one hand, I am positive on LULU's better-than-expected Q2 results and its long-term growth prospects. On the flip side, LULU's premium valuations and recent share price run have priced in the near-term positives for the company, while there are downside risks relating to its future earnings outlook.</p><p><blockquote>我对Lululemon的评级是持有或中性。一方面，我对露露好于预期的第二季度业绩及其长期增长前景持乐观态度。另一方面，LULU 的溢价估值和近期股价上涨为该公司的近期利好奠定了基础，而其未来盈利前景则存在下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Description</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司简介</b></blockquote></p><p> In its press releases, Lululemon Athletica Inc refers to itself as \"a healthy lifestyle inspired athletic apparel company for yoga, running, training, and most other sweaty pursuits\". LULU was established in 1998, and the company's shares were listed on the Nasdaq in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>在其新闻稿中，Lululemon Athletica Inc.将自己称为“一家受健康生活方式启发的运动服装公司，用于瑜伽、跑步、训练和大多数其他汗流浃背的追求”。露露成立于1998年，公司股票于2007年在纳斯达克上市。</blockquote></p><p> As of August 1, 2021, Lululemon boasted a network of 534 storesthat are located in 17 different markets. LULU generated 69%, 14% and 17%of the company's revenue from the US, Canada and international markets, respectively in the first half of FY 2021. The company-operated stores, the direct-to-consumer business, and others contributed 46%, 43% and 11% of its 1H 2021 sales, respectively. In the company's most recent 10-Q filing, Lululemon Athletica defines the others business segment as \"outlets, temporary locations, sales to wholesale accounts, license and supply arrangements, and MIRROR (home gym business acquired in2020).\"</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年8月1日，Lululemon拥有534家商店，分布在17个不同的市场。2021财年上半年，LULU 69%、14%和17%的收入分别来自美国、加拿大和国际市场。该公司运营的商店、直接面向消费者的业务和其他业务分别贡献了 2021 年上半年销售额的 46%、43% 和 11%。在该公司最新的 10-Q 文件中，Lululemon Athletica 将其他业务部门定义为“商店、临时地点、批发客户销售、许可和供应安排以及镜子（2020 年收购的家庭健身房业务）”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lululemon Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lululemon 股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Lululemon's stock price increased by +20.4% and +32.8% in the year-to-date and past one-year time periods, respectively which tracked the performance of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite very closely. However, LULU started to outperform the key benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months. In the past six months, Lululemon's share price rose by+33.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were only up in the low-teens percentages over the same period. In the last three months, LULU's shares went up by +25.0%, as compared to the +7.7% and +5.5% increases for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, respectively during the same time.</p><p><blockquote>Lululemon的股价在今年迄今和过去一年期间分别上涨了+20.4%和+32.8%，这与标普500和纳斯达克综合指数的表现非常密切。然而，在过去几个月里，LULU 的表现开始优于主要基准股票指数。在过去的六个月里，Lululemon的股价上涨了+33.3%，而同期纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数的涨幅仅为百分之几。在过去三个月中，露露的股价上涨了+25.0%，而纳斯达克综合指数和标普500同期分别上涨了+7.7%和+5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> LULU's earnings beat for both the first and second quarter of 2021 clearly helped to drive the company's recent strong stock price performance. More significantly, Lululemon Athletica's above-expectations financial performance in the first half of this year implies that the company has structural growth drivers working in its favor, instead of merely being a beneficiary of one-off Work-From-Home or WFH tailwinds during the peak of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 2021 年第一季度和第二季度的盈利超出预期显然有助于推动该公司近期强劲的股价表现。更重要的是，Lululemon Athletica 今年上半年超出预期的财务业绩意味着该公司拥有对其有利的结构性增长动力，而不仅仅是一次性在家工作或 WFH 顺风的受益者。 COVID-19 高峰期。</blockquote></p><p> At its recent second-quarter results briefing, Lululemon noted that \"the pandemic drove forward, accelerated some of the guest behaviors that play to the strength of our brand\" which included \"general fitness awareness\", \"being well, living well\" and \"the importance of functional apparel\". The company also emphasized that its \"brand is early innings across product with activities where we focus on\" and \"gaining market share across categories\".</p><p><blockquote>在最近的第二季度业绩发布会上，Lululemon 指出，“疫情推动了一些客人行为的发展，加速了我们品牌的优势”，其中包括“一般健身意识”、“身体健康，生活美好”和“功能性服装的重要性”。该公司还强调，其“品牌是我们重点关注的跨产品活动的早期阶段”和“获得跨类别的市场份额”。</blockquote></p><p> Separately, it is critical to examine if whether Lululemon's recent share price outperformance makes it less attractive as a potential investment candidate in terms of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>另外，至关重要的是要研究 Lululemon 最近的股价表现是否会降低其作为潜在投资候选者在估值方面的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peer Valuation Comparison For LULU</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LULU 的同行估值比较</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Stock</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Current Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Forward One Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Current Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Forward One Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Current Fiscal Year ROE Metric</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Forward One Fiscal Year ROE Metric</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Lululemon</b></td> <td>56.0</td> <td>47.1</td> <td>+41.6%</td> <td>+15.0%</td> <td>33.4%</td> <td>34.8%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)</td> <td>40.8</td> <td>26.8</td> <td>+21.7%</td> <td>+18.2%</td> <td>18.7%</td> <td>21.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)</td> <td>38.7</td> <td>34.0</td> <td>+23.0%</td> <td>+5.3%</td> <td>13.4%</td> <td>14.8%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>NIKE, Inc. (NKE)</td> <td>37.2</td> <td>31.5</td> <td>+12.4%</td> <td>+10.0%</td> <td>47.1%</td> <td>47.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>adidas AG (OTCQX:ADDYY) (OTCQX:ADDDF) [ADS:GR]</td> <td>38.8</td> <td>29.0</td> <td>+10.6%</td> <td>+12.1%</td> <td>22.5%</td> <td>25.2%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: S&P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>股票</b></td><td><b>共识本财政年度标准化市盈率倍数</b></td><td><b>共识远期一个财政年度标准化市盈率倍数</b></td><td><b>本财年共识收入增长指标</b></td><td><b>共识展望一个财年收入增长指标</b></td><td><b>当前财年共识 ROE 指标</b></td><td><b>共识 Forward 一个财年 ROE 指标</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>露露柠檬</b></td><td>56.0</td><td>47.1</td><td>+41.6%</td><td>+15.0%</td><td>33.4%</td><td>34.8%</td></tr><tr><td>加拿大鹅控股公司 (GOOS)</td><td>40.8</td><td>26.8</td><td>+21.7%</td><td>+18.2%</td><td>18.7%</td><td>21.3%</td></tr><tr><td>安德玛公司 (UAA)</td><td>38.7</td><td>34.0</td><td>+23.0%</td><td>+5.3%</td><td>13.4%</td><td>14.8%</td></tr><tr><td>耐克公司 (NKE)</td><td>37.2</td><td>31.5</td><td>+12.4%</td><td>+10.0%</td><td>47.1%</td><td>47.6%</td></tr><tr><td>阿迪达斯股份公司 (OTCQX:ADDYY) (OTCQX:ADDDF) [ADS:GR]</td><td>38.8</td><td>29.0</td><td>+10.6%</td><td>+12.1%</td><td>22.5%</td><td>25.2%</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：标准普尔资本智商</blockquote></p><p> As per the peer comparison table presented above, Lululemon is valued by the market at a significant premium to the company's listed peers with respect to forward P/E valuation metrics. LULU does boast superior revenue growth prospects as compared to all of its peers, while its forecasted ROEs are higher than the majority of its peers as well. As such, Lululemon does deserve to trade at higher P/E multiples than that of its peers, but the stock's lofty valuations are not very attractive on an absolute basis if one wants to consider it as an investment candidate.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述同行比较表，就远期市盈率估值指标而言，市场对 Lululemon 的估值高于该公司的上市同行。与所有同行相比，LULU 确实拥有优越的收入增长前景，同时其预测的净资产收益率也高于大多数同行。因此，Lululemon 确实值得以高于同行的市盈率进行交易，但如果要将其视为投资候选者，该股的高估值在绝对基础上并不是很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>LULU Stock Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>露露股票收益</b></blockquote></p><p> LULU reported its Q2 2021 earnings on September 8, 2021 after trading hours, and the company's stock price jumped by +11% the next day, from $380.85 to $420.71. It is clear that the market is very satisfied with Lululemon's recent quarterly financial performance.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 于 2021 年 9 月 8 日交易时段后公布了 2021 年第二季度收益，该公司股价第二天上涨 11%，从 380.85 美元上涨至 420.71 美元。显然，市场对Lululemon近期的季度财务表现非常满意。</blockquote></p><p> LULU's top line expanded by +61% YoY from $903 million in Q2 2020 to $1,451 million in Q2 2021, while its non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share increased by +123% YoY from $0.74 to$1.65over the same period. Notably, Lululemon's revenue and earnings per share were+9% and +39% higher than the market consensus' forecasts, respectively based on S&P Capital IQ data. As I highlighted in the preceding section with reference to the management's comments, athleisure continues to see strong demand, and Lululemon is a key beneficiary as the leading brand in this segment, which explains the company's good quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 的营收同比增长 +61%，从 2020 年第二季度的 9.03 亿美元增至 2021 年第二季度的 14.51 亿美元，而同期的非 GAAP 调整后每股收益同比增长 +123%，从 0.74 美元增至 1.65 美元。值得注意的是，根据标准普尔资本智商数据，Lululemon 的收入和每股收益分别比市场普遍预测高出 +9% 和 +39%。正如我在上一节中参考管理层的评论所强调的，athleisure 的需求继续强劲，而 Lululemon 作为该细分市场的领先品牌是主要受益者，这解释了该公司良好的季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the excellent performance of Lululemon's international and e-commerce businesses in the recent quarter is noteworthy. LULU's revenue from international markets grew by +49% YoY in Q2 2021, and this was equivalent to a two-year CAGR of +43%. Lululemon highlighted at the company's Q2 earnings call that \"our international business is ahead of the four times growth (revenue target) we put out to be completed by the end of 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，Lululemon国际和电子商务业务在最近一个季度的出色表现值得注意。2021 年第二季度，LULU 来自国际市场的收入同比增长 +49%，相当于两年复合年增长率 +43%。Lululemon 在公司第二季度财报看涨期权上强调，“我们的国际业务领先于我们设定的到 2023 年底完成的四倍增长（收入目标）。”</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, LULU's e-commerce sales still increased by+4%YoY (adjusted for foreign exchange effects) in Q2 2021, despite an exceptionally high base in Q2 2020 (+157% YoY e-commerce sales growth). This translates to a two-year e-commerce sales CAGR of approximately +66%. Lululemonrevealedthat it is implementing new initiatives to further drive the growth of its e-commerce business, which includes \"expanding our alternative payment methods, improved storytelling, more predictive search and a more seamless checkout.\"</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，尽管2020年Q2的基数异常高（电子商务销售额同比增长+157%），但LULU的电子商务销售额在2021年Q2仍同比增长+4%（经外汇影响调整）。这意味着两年的电子商务销售CAGR约为+66%。Lululemon透露，它正在实施新举措，以进一步推动其电子商务业务的增长，其中包括“扩大我们的替代支付方式、改进讲故事、更具预测性的搜索和更无缝的结账。”</blockquote></p><p> Moving ahead, Lululemon is guiding for $6.19-$6.26 billion in revenue and $7.38-$7.48 in earnings per share for full-year fiscal 2021. This is aligned with Wall Street analysts' consensus top line and bottom line of $6.233 billion and $7.48, which translate to YoY growth rates of +41.6% and +59.2%, respectively as per S&P Capital IQ data.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，Lululemon 预计 2021 财年全年营收为 6.19-62.6 亿美元，每股收益为 7.38-7.48 美元。根据 S&P Capital IQ 数据，这与华尔街分析师一致的营收和利润 62.33 亿美元和 7.48 美元一致，这意味着同比增长率分别为 +41.6% 和 +59.2%。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is a real risk that the company disappoints on profitability in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司未来几个季度的盈利能力确实存在令人失望的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Firstly, Lululemon's future investments could be larger than expected. The company guided at its recent results call for FY 2021 SG&A (Selling, General & Administrative) \"deleverage of 10 to 30 basis points versus 2020\" and an increase in capital expenditures this year. LULU attributed this to \"our investment in MIRROR (highlighted in \"Company Description\" section) brand building\", \"MIRROR shop-in-shops\" and \"increased investment in our supply chain, digital capabilities, new store openings and renovations.\" It is not unusual for actual investments to turn out to be greater than what companies budget for.</p><p><blockquote>首先，Lululemon未来的投资可能会比预期更大。该公司在最近公布的 2021 财年 SG&A（销售、一般和行政）业绩看涨期权中指出，“与 2020 年相比，去杠杆化 10 至 30 个基点”，并增加今年的资本支出。LULU 将此归因于“我们对 MIRROR（在“公司描述”部分突出显示）品牌建设的投资”、“MIRROR 店中店”以及“对供应链、数字化能力、新店开业和翻新的投资增加”。实际投资大于公司预算的情况并不少见。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, LULU's introduction of footwear products in 2022 could be negative for the company's overall gross profit margin. At its 1Q 2021 earnings call in June 2021, Lululemon mentioned that \"we are bringing footwear next year.\" As a new product line which will begin with relatively lower volume, footwear products are likely to have lower gross profit margins than LULU's existing core products. In other words, Lululemon's sales mix could be less favorable next year, and this could translate to lower gross margins for the company as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>其次，露露2022年推出鞋类产品可能会对公司整体毛利率产生负面影响。Lululemon 在 2021 年 6 月举行的 2021 年第一季度盈利看涨期权上提到，“我们明年将推出鞋类。”作为一个产量相对较低的新产品线，鞋类产品的毛利率可能低于露露现有的核心产品。换句话说，Lululemon 明年的销售组合可能会不太有利，这可能会导致公司整体毛利率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Thirdly, lock-downs in Vietnam relating to COVID-19 could have an adverse impact on the company's business operations. Lululemon acknowledged at its Q2 2021 results briefing that the Vietnam production disruption \"is currently impacting approximately 20% of our second half inventory\", with the country accounting for \"30% of our finished goods.\" A September 13, 2021 <i>Seeking Alpha</i> news article quoted research from <i>BTIG</i> which mentioned that there are \"supply risks in the apparel and footwear sector as the negative impact of Vietnam factory closures becomes clearer.\" LULU's current full-year guidance is based onthe assumptionthat Southern Vietnam commences its re-opening process this month, and if that does not happen, Lululemon's financial numbers in the subsequent quarters could potentially come in below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>第三，越南与COVID-19相关的封锁可能会对本公司的业务运营产生不利影响。Lululemon 在 2021 年第二季度业绩简报中承认，越南生产中断“目前影响了我们下半年库存的约 20%”，该国占“我们成品的 30%”。2021年9月13日<i>寻求阿尔法</i>新闻文章引用了来自<i>BTIG</i>其中提到，“随着越南工厂关闭的负面影响变得更加明显，服装和鞋类行业存在供应风险。”LULU 目前的全年指引是基于南越将于本月开始重新开放的假设，如果这种情况没有发生，Lululemon 随后几个季度的财务数据可能会低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is LULU Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>露露股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> LULU stock is a Hold based on my analysis.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的分析，露露股票是持有的。</blockquote></p><p> I fear that Lululemon could suffer from a valuation de-rating, assuming that the company's future quarterly earnings fall short of market expectations as a result of the various factors that I highlighted in the previous section. That said, I do acknowledge that LULU is the market leader in athleisure with significantmarket share, and its medium-term growth prospects are excellent, especially for the international and e-commerce segments. Considering both the positives and negatives associated with the stock, my opinion is that a Hold rating is fair for Lululemon.</p><p><blockquote>我担心 Lululemon 可能会遭受估值下调，假设由于我在上一节中强调的各种因素，该公司未来的季度收益低于市场预期。话虽如此，我确实承认 LULU 是运动休闲领域的市场领导者，拥有巨大的市场份额，其中期增长前景非常好，尤其是在国际和电子商务领域。考虑到与该股相关的利弊，我认为对 Lululemon 给予持有评级是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> LULU's key risks are actual investments exceeding its original budget, a failure to ramp up sales of its new footwear products next year to achieve economies of scale, and prolonged lock-downs in Vietnam which bring greater-than-expected disruptions for the company.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 的主要风险是实际投资超出其原始预算、明年未能增加新鞋产品的销售以实现规模经济，以及越南的长期封锁给公司带来超出预期的干扰。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Lululemon Stock A Buy Or Sell After Q2 Earnings? Key Risk Is Lower-Than-Expected Profitability<blockquote>Lululemon 股票在第二季度财报公布后是买入还是卖出？主要风险是盈利能力低于预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Lululemon Stock A Buy Or Sell After Q2 Earnings? Key Risk Is Lower-Than-Expected Profitability<blockquote>Lululemon 股票在第二季度财报公布后是买入还是卖出？主要风险是盈利能力低于预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 17:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Lululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the past few months, as a result of better-than-expected financial performance in 1H 2021.</li> <li>LULU achieved strong top line and bottom line growth in Q2 2021 which also beat market expectations, but lower-than-expected profitability for the company going forward is a key downside risk.</li> <li>I see Lululemon stock as Hold after Q2 earnings, as its valuations are expensive, and an earnings miss in the future could de-rate its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5831fd8e2c9cd8844c973c0f757a56\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>jentakespictures/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于 2021 年上半年的财务业绩好于预期，Lululemon 的股价在过去几个月中表现远好于主要基准股指。</li><li>LULU在2021年第二季度实现了强劲的营收和利润增长，也超出了市场预期，但公司未来的盈利能力低于预期是一个关键的下行风险。</li><li>我认为 Lululemon 股票在第二季度财报公布后持有，因为其估值昂贵，而且未来盈利失败可能会降低其股价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jentakespictures/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Elevator Pitch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电梯俯仰</b></blockquote></p><p> I assign a Neutral rating to Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU).</p><p><blockquote>我对 Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) 给予中性评级。</blockquote></p><p> Lululemon has delivered significant stock price outperformance as compared to the major benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months, and the stock's current valuations are not that appealing following its recent share price run. Larger-than-expected investments in the near future, an unfavorable sales mix with the introduction of new footwear products next year, and potential supply chain disruptions could be a potential drag on LULU's forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与过去几个月的主要基准股票指数相比，Lululemon 的股价表现显着优于主要基准股票指数，而且在最近的股价上涨之后，该股目前的估值并不那么有吸引力。近期投资超出预期、明年推出新鞋产品带来的不利销售组合以及潜在的供应链中断可能会拖累 LULU 的未来盈利。</blockquote></p><p> My rating for Lululemon is a Hold or Neutral. On one hand, I am positive on LULU's better-than-expected Q2 results and its long-term growth prospects. On the flip side, LULU's premium valuations and recent share price run have priced in the near-term positives for the company, while there are downside risks relating to its future earnings outlook.</p><p><blockquote>我对Lululemon的评级是持有或中性。一方面，我对露露好于预期的第二季度业绩及其长期增长前景持乐观态度。另一方面，LULU 的溢价估值和近期股价上涨为该公司的近期利好奠定了基础，而其未来盈利前景则存在下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Description</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司简介</b></blockquote></p><p> In its press releases, Lululemon Athletica Inc refers to itself as \"a healthy lifestyle inspired athletic apparel company for yoga, running, training, and most other sweaty pursuits\". LULU was established in 1998, and the company's shares were listed on the Nasdaq in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>在其新闻稿中，Lululemon Athletica Inc.将自己称为“一家受健康生活方式启发的运动服装公司，用于瑜伽、跑步、训练和大多数其他汗流浃背的追求”。露露成立于1998年，公司股票于2007年在纳斯达克上市。</blockquote></p><p> As of August 1, 2021, Lululemon boasted a network of 534 storesthat are located in 17 different markets. LULU generated 69%, 14% and 17%of the company's revenue from the US, Canada and international markets, respectively in the first half of FY 2021. The company-operated stores, the direct-to-consumer business, and others contributed 46%, 43% and 11% of its 1H 2021 sales, respectively. In the company's most recent 10-Q filing, Lululemon Athletica defines the others business segment as \"outlets, temporary locations, sales to wholesale accounts, license and supply arrangements, and MIRROR (home gym business acquired in2020).\"</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年8月1日，Lululemon拥有534家商店，分布在17个不同的市场。2021财年上半年，LULU 69%、14%和17%的收入分别来自美国、加拿大和国际市场。该公司运营的商店、直接面向消费者的业务和其他业务分别贡献了 2021 年上半年销售额的 46%、43% 和 11%。在该公司最新的 10-Q 文件中，Lululemon Athletica 将其他业务部门定义为“商店、临时地点、批发客户销售、许可和供应安排以及镜子（2020 年收购的家庭健身房业务）”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lululemon Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lululemon 股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Lululemon's stock price increased by +20.4% and +32.8% in the year-to-date and past one-year time periods, respectively which tracked the performance of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite very closely. However, LULU started to outperform the key benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months. In the past six months, Lululemon's share price rose by+33.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were only up in the low-teens percentages over the same period. In the last three months, LULU's shares went up by +25.0%, as compared to the +7.7% and +5.5% increases for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, respectively during the same time.</p><p><blockquote>Lululemon的股价在今年迄今和过去一年期间分别上涨了+20.4%和+32.8%，这与标普500和纳斯达克综合指数的表现非常密切。然而，在过去几个月里，LULU 的表现开始优于主要基准股票指数。在过去的六个月里，Lululemon的股价上涨了+33.3%，而同期纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数的涨幅仅为百分之几。在过去三个月中，露露的股价上涨了+25.0%，而纳斯达克综合指数和标普500同期分别上涨了+7.7%和+5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> LULU's earnings beat for both the first and second quarter of 2021 clearly helped to drive the company's recent strong stock price performance. More significantly, Lululemon Athletica's above-expectations financial performance in the first half of this year implies that the company has structural growth drivers working in its favor, instead of merely being a beneficiary of one-off Work-From-Home or WFH tailwinds during the peak of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 2021 年第一季度和第二季度的盈利超出预期显然有助于推动该公司近期强劲的股价表现。更重要的是，Lululemon Athletica 今年上半年超出预期的财务业绩意味着该公司拥有对其有利的结构性增长动力，而不仅仅是一次性在家工作或 WFH 顺风的受益者。 COVID-19 高峰期。</blockquote></p><p> At its recent second-quarter results briefing, Lululemon noted that \"the pandemic drove forward, accelerated some of the guest behaviors that play to the strength of our brand\" which included \"general fitness awareness\", \"being well, living well\" and \"the importance of functional apparel\". The company also emphasized that its \"brand is early innings across product with activities where we focus on\" and \"gaining market share across categories\".</p><p><blockquote>在最近的第二季度业绩发布会上，Lululemon 指出，“疫情推动了一些客人行为的发展，加速了我们品牌的优势”，其中包括“一般健身意识”、“身体健康，生活美好”和“功能性服装的重要性”。该公司还强调，其“品牌是我们重点关注的跨产品活动的早期阶段”和“获得跨类别的市场份额”。</blockquote></p><p> Separately, it is critical to examine if whether Lululemon's recent share price outperformance makes it less attractive as a potential investment candidate in terms of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>另外，至关重要的是要研究 Lululemon 最近的股价表现是否会降低其作为潜在投资候选者在估值方面的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peer Valuation Comparison For LULU</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LULU 的同行估值比较</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Stock</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Current Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Forward One Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Current Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Forward One Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Current Fiscal Year ROE Metric</b></td> <td><b>Consensus Forward One Fiscal Year ROE Metric</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Lululemon</b></td> <td>56.0</td> <td>47.1</td> <td>+41.6%</td> <td>+15.0%</td> <td>33.4%</td> <td>34.8%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)</td> <td>40.8</td> <td>26.8</td> <td>+21.7%</td> <td>+18.2%</td> <td>18.7%</td> <td>21.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)</td> <td>38.7</td> <td>34.0</td> <td>+23.0%</td> <td>+5.3%</td> <td>13.4%</td> <td>14.8%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>NIKE, Inc. (NKE)</td> <td>37.2</td> <td>31.5</td> <td>+12.4%</td> <td>+10.0%</td> <td>47.1%</td> <td>47.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>adidas AG (OTCQX:ADDYY) (OTCQX:ADDDF) [ADS:GR]</td> <td>38.8</td> <td>29.0</td> <td>+10.6%</td> <td>+12.1%</td> <td>22.5%</td> <td>25.2%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: S&P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>股票</b></td><td><b>共识本财政年度标准化市盈率倍数</b></td><td><b>共识远期一个财政年度标准化市盈率倍数</b></td><td><b>本财年共识收入增长指标</b></td><td><b>共识展望一个财年收入增长指标</b></td><td><b>当前财年共识 ROE 指标</b></td><td><b>共识 Forward 一个财年 ROE 指标</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>露露柠檬</b></td><td>56.0</td><td>47.1</td><td>+41.6%</td><td>+15.0%</td><td>33.4%</td><td>34.8%</td></tr><tr><td>加拿大鹅控股公司 (GOOS)</td><td>40.8</td><td>26.8</td><td>+21.7%</td><td>+18.2%</td><td>18.7%</td><td>21.3%</td></tr><tr><td>安德玛公司 (UAA)</td><td>38.7</td><td>34.0</td><td>+23.0%</td><td>+5.3%</td><td>13.4%</td><td>14.8%</td></tr><tr><td>耐克公司 (NKE)</td><td>37.2</td><td>31.5</td><td>+12.4%</td><td>+10.0%</td><td>47.1%</td><td>47.6%</td></tr><tr><td>阿迪达斯股份公司 (OTCQX:ADDYY) (OTCQX:ADDDF) [ADS:GR]</td><td>38.8</td><td>29.0</td><td>+10.6%</td><td>+12.1%</td><td>22.5%</td><td>25.2%</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：标准普尔资本智商</blockquote></p><p> As per the peer comparison table presented above, Lululemon is valued by the market at a significant premium to the company's listed peers with respect to forward P/E valuation metrics. LULU does boast superior revenue growth prospects as compared to all of its peers, while its forecasted ROEs are higher than the majority of its peers as well. As such, Lululemon does deserve to trade at higher P/E multiples than that of its peers, but the stock's lofty valuations are not very attractive on an absolute basis if one wants to consider it as an investment candidate.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述同行比较表，就远期市盈率估值指标而言，市场对 Lululemon 的估值高于该公司的上市同行。与所有同行相比，LULU 确实拥有优越的收入增长前景，同时其预测的净资产收益率也高于大多数同行。因此，Lululemon 确实值得以高于同行的市盈率进行交易，但如果要将其视为投资候选者，该股的高估值在绝对基础上并不是很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>LULU Stock Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>露露股票收益</b></blockquote></p><p> LULU reported its Q2 2021 earnings on September 8, 2021 after trading hours, and the company's stock price jumped by +11% the next day, from $380.85 to $420.71. It is clear that the market is very satisfied with Lululemon's recent quarterly financial performance.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 于 2021 年 9 月 8 日交易时段后公布了 2021 年第二季度收益，该公司股价第二天上涨 11%，从 380.85 美元上涨至 420.71 美元。显然，市场对Lululemon近期的季度财务表现非常满意。</blockquote></p><p> LULU's top line expanded by +61% YoY from $903 million in Q2 2020 to $1,451 million in Q2 2021, while its non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share increased by +123% YoY from $0.74 to$1.65over the same period. Notably, Lululemon's revenue and earnings per share were+9% and +39% higher than the market consensus' forecasts, respectively based on S&P Capital IQ data. As I highlighted in the preceding section with reference to the management's comments, athleisure continues to see strong demand, and Lululemon is a key beneficiary as the leading brand in this segment, which explains the company's good quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 的营收同比增长 +61%，从 2020 年第二季度的 9.03 亿美元增至 2021 年第二季度的 14.51 亿美元，而同期的非 GAAP 调整后每股收益同比增长 +123%，从 0.74 美元增至 1.65 美元。值得注意的是，根据标准普尔资本智商数据，Lululemon 的收入和每股收益分别比市场普遍预测高出 +9% 和 +39%。正如我在上一节中参考管理层的评论所强调的，athleisure 的需求继续强劲，而 Lululemon 作为该细分市场的领先品牌是主要受益者，这解释了该公司良好的季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the excellent performance of Lululemon's international and e-commerce businesses in the recent quarter is noteworthy. LULU's revenue from international markets grew by +49% YoY in Q2 2021, and this was equivalent to a two-year CAGR of +43%. Lululemon highlighted at the company's Q2 earnings call that \"our international business is ahead of the four times growth (revenue target) we put out to be completed by the end of 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，Lululemon国际和电子商务业务在最近一个季度的出色表现值得注意。2021 年第二季度，LULU 来自国际市场的收入同比增长 +49%，相当于两年复合年增长率 +43%。Lululemon 在公司第二季度财报看涨期权上强调，“我们的国际业务领先于我们设定的到 2023 年底完成的四倍增长（收入目标）。”</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, LULU's e-commerce sales still increased by+4%YoY (adjusted for foreign exchange effects) in Q2 2021, despite an exceptionally high base in Q2 2020 (+157% YoY e-commerce sales growth). This translates to a two-year e-commerce sales CAGR of approximately +66%. Lululemonrevealedthat it is implementing new initiatives to further drive the growth of its e-commerce business, which includes \"expanding our alternative payment methods, improved storytelling, more predictive search and a more seamless checkout.\"</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，尽管2020年Q2的基数异常高（电子商务销售额同比增长+157%），但LULU的电子商务销售额在2021年Q2仍同比增长+4%（经外汇影响调整）。这意味着两年的电子商务销售CAGR约为+66%。Lululemon透露，它正在实施新举措，以进一步推动其电子商务业务的增长，其中包括“扩大我们的替代支付方式、改进讲故事、更具预测性的搜索和更无缝的结账。”</blockquote></p><p> Moving ahead, Lululemon is guiding for $6.19-$6.26 billion in revenue and $7.38-$7.48 in earnings per share for full-year fiscal 2021. This is aligned with Wall Street analysts' consensus top line and bottom line of $6.233 billion and $7.48, which translate to YoY growth rates of +41.6% and +59.2%, respectively as per S&P Capital IQ data.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，Lululemon 预计 2021 财年全年营收为 6.19-62.6 亿美元，每股收益为 7.38-7.48 美元。根据 S&P Capital IQ 数据，这与华尔街分析师一致的营收和利润 62.33 亿美元和 7.48 美元一致，这意味着同比增长率分别为 +41.6% 和 +59.2%。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is a real risk that the company disappoints on profitability in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司未来几个季度的盈利能力确实存在令人失望的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Firstly, Lululemon's future investments could be larger than expected. The company guided at its recent results call for FY 2021 SG&A (Selling, General & Administrative) \"deleverage of 10 to 30 basis points versus 2020\" and an increase in capital expenditures this year. LULU attributed this to \"our investment in MIRROR (highlighted in \"Company Description\" section) brand building\", \"MIRROR shop-in-shops\" and \"increased investment in our supply chain, digital capabilities, new store openings and renovations.\" It is not unusual for actual investments to turn out to be greater than what companies budget for.</p><p><blockquote>首先，Lululemon未来的投资可能会比预期更大。该公司在最近公布的 2021 财年 SG&A（销售、一般和行政）业绩看涨期权中指出，“与 2020 年相比，去杠杆化 10 至 30 个基点”，并增加今年的资本支出。LULU 将此归因于“我们对 MIRROR（在“公司描述”部分突出显示）品牌建设的投资”、“MIRROR 店中店”以及“对供应链、数字化能力、新店开业和翻新的投资增加”。实际投资大于公司预算的情况并不少见。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, LULU's introduction of footwear products in 2022 could be negative for the company's overall gross profit margin. At its 1Q 2021 earnings call in June 2021, Lululemon mentioned that \"we are bringing footwear next year.\" As a new product line which will begin with relatively lower volume, footwear products are likely to have lower gross profit margins than LULU's existing core products. In other words, Lululemon's sales mix could be less favorable next year, and this could translate to lower gross margins for the company as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>其次，露露2022年推出鞋类产品可能会对公司整体毛利率产生负面影响。Lululemon 在 2021 年 6 月举行的 2021 年第一季度盈利看涨期权上提到，“我们明年将推出鞋类。”作为一个产量相对较低的新产品线，鞋类产品的毛利率可能低于露露现有的核心产品。换句话说，Lululemon 明年的销售组合可能会不太有利，这可能会导致公司整体毛利率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Thirdly, lock-downs in Vietnam relating to COVID-19 could have an adverse impact on the company's business operations. Lululemon acknowledged at its Q2 2021 results briefing that the Vietnam production disruption \"is currently impacting approximately 20% of our second half inventory\", with the country accounting for \"30% of our finished goods.\" A September 13, 2021 <i>Seeking Alpha</i> news article quoted research from <i>BTIG</i> which mentioned that there are \"supply risks in the apparel and footwear sector as the negative impact of Vietnam factory closures becomes clearer.\" LULU's current full-year guidance is based onthe assumptionthat Southern Vietnam commences its re-opening process this month, and if that does not happen, Lululemon's financial numbers in the subsequent quarters could potentially come in below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>第三，越南与COVID-19相关的封锁可能会对本公司的业务运营产生不利影响。Lululemon 在 2021 年第二季度业绩简报中承认，越南生产中断“目前影响了我们下半年库存的约 20%”，该国占“我们成品的 30%”。2021年9月13日<i>寻求阿尔法</i>新闻文章引用了来自<i>BTIG</i>其中提到，“随着越南工厂关闭的负面影响变得更加明显，服装和鞋类行业存在供应风险。”LULU 目前的全年指引是基于南越将于本月开始重新开放的假设，如果这种情况没有发生，Lululemon 随后几个季度的财务数据可能会低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is LULU Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>露露股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> LULU stock is a Hold based on my analysis.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的分析，露露股票是持有的。</blockquote></p><p> I fear that Lululemon could suffer from a valuation de-rating, assuming that the company's future quarterly earnings fall short of market expectations as a result of the various factors that I highlighted in the previous section. That said, I do acknowledge that LULU is the market leader in athleisure with significantmarket share, and its medium-term growth prospects are excellent, especially for the international and e-commerce segments. Considering both the positives and negatives associated with the stock, my opinion is that a Hold rating is fair for Lululemon.</p><p><blockquote>我担心 Lululemon 可能会遭受估值下调，假设由于我在上一节中强调的各种因素，该公司未来的季度收益低于市场预期。话虽如此，我确实承认 LULU 是运动休闲领域的市场领导者，拥有巨大的市场份额，其中期增长前景非常好，尤其是在国际和电子商务领域。考虑到与该股相关的利弊，我认为对 Lululemon 给予持有评级是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> LULU's key risks are actual investments exceeding its original budget, a failure to ramp up sales of its new footwear products next year to achieve economies of scale, and prolonged lock-downs in Vietnam which bring greater-than-expected disruptions for the company.</p><p><blockquote>LULU 的主要风险是实际投资超出其原始预算、明年未能增加新鞋产品的销售以实现规模经济，以及越南的长期封锁给公司带来超出预期的干扰。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455585-lululemon-stock-buy-sell-q2-earnings\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LULU":"lululemon athletica"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455585-lululemon-stock-buy-sell-q2-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139296336","content_text":"Summary\n\nLululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the past few months, as a result of better-than-expected financial performance in 1H 2021.\nLULU achieved strong top line and bottom line growth in Q2 2021 which also beat market expectations, but lower-than-expected profitability for the company going forward is a key downside risk.\nI see Lululemon stock as Hold after Q2 earnings, as its valuations are expensive, and an earnings miss in the future could de-rate its shares.\n\njentakespictures/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nElevator Pitch\nI assign a Neutral rating to Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU).\nLululemon has delivered significant stock price outperformance as compared to the major benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months, and the stock's current valuations are not that appealing following its recent share price run. Larger-than-expected investments in the near future, an unfavorable sales mix with the introduction of new footwear products next year, and potential supply chain disruptions could be a potential drag on LULU's forward earnings.\nMy rating for Lululemon is a Hold or Neutral. On one hand, I am positive on LULU's better-than-expected Q2 results and its long-term growth prospects. On the flip side, LULU's premium valuations and recent share price run have priced in the near-term positives for the company, while there are downside risks relating to its future earnings outlook.\nCompany Description\nIn its press releases, Lululemon Athletica Inc refers to itself as \"a healthy lifestyle inspired athletic apparel company for yoga, running, training, and most other sweaty pursuits\". LULU was established in 1998, and the company's shares were listed on the Nasdaq in 2007.\nAs of August 1, 2021, Lululemon boasted a network of 534 storesthat are located in 17 different markets. LULU generated 69%, 14% and 17%of the company's revenue from the US, Canada and international markets, respectively in the first half of FY 2021. The company-operated stores, the direct-to-consumer business, and others contributed 46%, 43% and 11% of its 1H 2021 sales, respectively. In the company's most recent 10-Q filing, Lululemon Athletica defines the others business segment as \"outlets, temporary locations, sales to wholesale accounts, license and supply arrangements, and MIRROR (home gym business acquired in2020).\"\nLululemon Stock Price\nLululemon's stock price increased by +20.4% and +32.8% in the year-to-date and past one-year time periods, respectively which tracked the performance of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite very closely. However, LULU started to outperform the key benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months. In the past six months, Lululemon's share price rose by+33.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were only up in the low-teens percentages over the same period. In the last three months, LULU's shares went up by +25.0%, as compared to the +7.7% and +5.5% increases for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, respectively during the same time.\nLULU's earnings beat for both the first and second quarter of 2021 clearly helped to drive the company's recent strong stock price performance. More significantly, Lululemon Athletica's above-expectations financial performance in the first half of this year implies that the company has structural growth drivers working in its favor, instead of merely being a beneficiary of one-off Work-From-Home or WFH tailwinds during the peak of COVID-19.\nAt its recent second-quarter results briefing, Lululemon noted that \"the pandemic drove forward, accelerated some of the guest behaviors that play to the strength of our brand\" which included \"general fitness awareness\", \"being well, living well\" and \"the importance of functional apparel\". The company also emphasized that its \"brand is early innings across product with activities where we focus on\" and \"gaining market share across categories\".\nSeparately, it is critical to examine if whether Lululemon's recent share price outperformance makes it less attractive as a potential investment candidate in terms of valuations.\nPeer Valuation Comparison For LULU\n\n\n\nStock\nConsensus Current Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple\nConsensus Forward One Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple\nConsensus Current Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric\nConsensus Forward One Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric\nConsensus Current Fiscal Year ROE Metric\nConsensus Forward One Fiscal Year ROE Metric\n\n\nLululemon\n56.0\n47.1\n+41.6%\n+15.0%\n33.4%\n34.8%\n\n\nCanada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)\n40.8\n26.8\n+21.7%\n+18.2%\n18.7%\n21.3%\n\n\nUnder Armour, Inc. (UAA)\n38.7\n34.0\n+23.0%\n+5.3%\n13.4%\n14.8%\n\n\nNIKE, Inc. (NKE)\n37.2\n31.5\n+12.4%\n+10.0%\n47.1%\n47.6%\n\n\nadidas AG (OTCQX:ADDYY) (OTCQX:ADDDF) [ADS:GR]\n38.8\n29.0\n+10.6%\n+12.1%\n22.5%\n25.2%\n\n\n\nSource: S&P Capital IQ\nAs per the peer comparison table presented above, Lululemon is valued by the market at a significant premium to the company's listed peers with respect to forward P/E valuation metrics. LULU does boast superior revenue growth prospects as compared to all of its peers, while its forecasted ROEs are higher than the majority of its peers as well. As such, Lululemon does deserve to trade at higher P/E multiples than that of its peers, but the stock's lofty valuations are not very attractive on an absolute basis if one wants to consider it as an investment candidate.\nLULU Stock Earnings\nLULU reported its Q2 2021 earnings on September 8, 2021 after trading hours, and the company's stock price jumped by +11% the next day, from $380.85 to $420.71. It is clear that the market is very satisfied with Lululemon's recent quarterly financial performance.\nLULU's top line expanded by +61% YoY from $903 million in Q2 2020 to $1,451 million in Q2 2021, while its non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share increased by +123% YoY from $0.74 to$1.65over the same period. Notably, Lululemon's revenue and earnings per share were+9% and +39% higher than the market consensus' forecasts, respectively based on S&P Capital IQ data. As I highlighted in the preceding section with reference to the management's comments, athleisure continues to see strong demand, and Lululemon is a key beneficiary as the leading brand in this segment, which explains the company's good quarterly financial results.\nSpecifically, the excellent performance of Lululemon's international and e-commerce businesses in the recent quarter is noteworthy. LULU's revenue from international markets grew by +49% YoY in Q2 2021, and this was equivalent to a two-year CAGR of +43%. Lululemon highlighted at the company's Q2 earnings call that \"our international business is ahead of the four times growth (revenue target) we put out to be completed by the end of 2023.\"\nOn the other hand, LULU's e-commerce sales still increased by+4%YoY (adjusted for foreign exchange effects) in Q2 2021, despite an exceptionally high base in Q2 2020 (+157% YoY e-commerce sales growth). This translates to a two-year e-commerce sales CAGR of approximately +66%. Lululemonrevealedthat it is implementing new initiatives to further drive the growth of its e-commerce business, which includes \"expanding our alternative payment methods, improved storytelling, more predictive search and a more seamless checkout.\"\nMoving ahead, Lululemon is guiding for $6.19-$6.26 billion in revenue and $7.38-$7.48 in earnings per share for full-year fiscal 2021. This is aligned with Wall Street analysts' consensus top line and bottom line of $6.233 billion and $7.48, which translate to YoY growth rates of +41.6% and +59.2%, respectively as per S&P Capital IQ data.\nHowever, there is a real risk that the company disappoints on profitability in the coming quarters.\nFirstly, Lululemon's future investments could be larger than expected. The company guided at its recent results call for FY 2021 SG&A (Selling, General & Administrative) \"deleverage of 10 to 30 basis points versus 2020\" and an increase in capital expenditures this year. LULU attributed this to \"our investment in MIRROR (highlighted in \"Company Description\" section) brand building\", \"MIRROR shop-in-shops\" and \"increased investment in our supply chain, digital capabilities, new store openings and renovations.\" It is not unusual for actual investments to turn out to be greater than what companies budget for.\nSecondly, LULU's introduction of footwear products in 2022 could be negative for the company's overall gross profit margin. At its 1Q 2021 earnings call in June 2021, Lululemon mentioned that \"we are bringing footwear next year.\" As a new product line which will begin with relatively lower volume, footwear products are likely to have lower gross profit margins than LULU's existing core products. In other words, Lululemon's sales mix could be less favorable next year, and this could translate to lower gross margins for the company as a whole.\nThirdly, lock-downs in Vietnam relating to COVID-19 could have an adverse impact on the company's business operations. Lululemon acknowledged at its Q2 2021 results briefing that the Vietnam production disruption \"is currently impacting approximately 20% of our second half inventory\", with the country accounting for \"30% of our finished goods.\" A September 13, 2021 Seeking Alpha news article quoted research from BTIG which mentioned that there are \"supply risks in the apparel and footwear sector as the negative impact of Vietnam factory closures becomes clearer.\" LULU's current full-year guidance is based onthe assumptionthat Southern Vietnam commences its re-opening process this month, and if that does not happen, Lululemon's financial numbers in the subsequent quarters could potentially come in below expectations.\nIs LULU Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nLULU stock is a Hold based on my analysis.\nI fear that Lululemon could suffer from a valuation de-rating, assuming that the company's future quarterly earnings fall short of market expectations as a result of the various factors that I highlighted in the previous section. That said, I do acknowledge that LULU is the market leader in athleisure with significantmarket share, and its medium-term growth prospects are excellent, especially for the international and e-commerce segments. Considering both the positives and negatives associated with the stock, my opinion is that a Hold rating is fair for Lululemon.\nLULU's key risks are actual investments exceeding its original budget, a failure to ramp up sales of its new footwear products next year to achieve economies of scale, and prolonged lock-downs in Vietnam which bring greater-than-expected disruptions for the company.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LULU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885148899,"gmtCreate":1631769904811,"gmtModify":1631889755184,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885148899","repostId":"2167592712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888597987,"gmtCreate":1631505221949,"gmtModify":1631889755195,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888597987","repostId":"2166303094","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889227376,"gmtCreate":1631152640895,"gmtModify":1631889755210,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889227376","repostId":"2166392072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889105821,"gmtCreate":1631112532663,"gmtModify":1631889755220,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889105821","repostId":"1154837170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154837170","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631090918,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154837170?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 16:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154837170","media":"Barron's","summary":"It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.Bitcoin was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum , down 12% to $3,460.The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum ","content":"<p>It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>对比特币来说，这本应是快乐的一天，但却变成了溃败。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>比特币（股票代码：BTC）周二下午交易价格约为 47,000 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌 9%，今天上午跌至 42,900 美元。抛售前，比特币股价已超过 52,800 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.</p><p><blockquote>其他加密货币也陷入困境，包括以太币 (ETH)，下跌 12%，至 3,460 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.</p><p><blockquote>抛售可能反映了7月下旬价格开始上涨后的获利了结。自 7 月下旬以来，比特币股价已上涨超过 50%，当时股价约为 34,000 美元。在其底层区块链网络进行技术升级后，以太币也一直在飞翔。</blockquote></p><p> The down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多成为第一个将比特币与该国另一种官方货币美元一起作为法定货币的国家后，这一低迷的一天可能也反映了 “抛售新闻 ”的动态。</blockquote></p><p> Merchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多的商人现在应该接受商品和服务的比特币。政府承诺在公民的数字钱包中提供价值30美元的比特币。据路透社报道，麦当劳已开始在萨尔瓦多接受比特币。在正式发射前，纳伊布·布克莱总统的政府一直在购买比特币，包括价值至少2000万美元的产品。</blockquote></p><p> But El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.</p><p><blockquote>但萨尔瓦多的加密货币实验并没有得到国际货币基金组织和世界银行等组织的认可，这些组织警告萨尔瓦多，将其作为法定货币可能会危及金融稳定。其他国家正在打击加密交易、采矿和交易所，这表明萨尔瓦多目前可能是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).</p><p><blockquote>加密货币观察人士也将市场低迷归咎于技术因素。加密货币交易研究公司 Fairlead Strategies 的创始人兼管理合伙人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）说，假设价格不会突然飙升，比特币现在将迎来 “外部下跌 ”的一天。这意味着比特币的交易区间更大，收盘价将低于昨天（假设下午 5 点截止，尽管它 24 小时交易）。</blockquote></p><p> “The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”这意味着要进一步整合。她补充说，到目前为止，抛售看起来只是一个小小的挫折，因为比特币还没有突破 4.4 万美元左右的 50 天移动平均线，这是其下一个支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> “A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”44,000 美元的违规并不意味着破产。“这是对 50 天移动平均线的测试。“比特币和大多数接近当前低点的加密货币都有强有力的支撑”。</blockquote></p><p> Other factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.</p><p><blockquote>其他可能导致抛售的因素还包括领先的加密货币交易所 Bitfinix 的停电和 “计划外维护 ”的报道。据 Downdetector 称，Coinbase Global（股票代码：COIN）在中午前后也经历了停电激增。</blockquote></p><p> Even if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.</p><p><blockquote>即使价格从这里稳定下来，这也提醒人们，比特币和其他加密货币仍然容易受到快速下跌的影响。虽然你可以在圣萨尔瓦多买到一个加了一小块比特币的巨无霸，但你最好还是把它放在你的数字钱包里——或者不放在那里——这取决于一天中的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 16:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>对比特币来说，这本应是快乐的一天，但却变成了溃败。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>比特币（股票代码：BTC）周二下午交易价格约为 47,000 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌 9%，今天上午跌至 42,900 美元。抛售前，比特币股价已超过 52,800 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.</p><p><blockquote>其他加密货币也陷入困境，包括以太币 (ETH)，下跌 12%，至 3,460 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.</p><p><blockquote>抛售可能反映了7月下旬价格开始上涨后的获利了结。自 7 月下旬以来，比特币股价已上涨超过 50%，当时股价约为 34,000 美元。在其底层区块链网络进行技术升级后，以太币也一直在飞翔。</blockquote></p><p> The down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多成为第一个将比特币与该国另一种官方货币美元一起作为法定货币的国家后，这一低迷的一天可能也反映了 “抛售新闻 ”的动态。</blockquote></p><p> Merchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多的商人现在应该接受商品和服务的比特币。政府承诺在公民的数字钱包中提供价值30美元的比特币。据路透社报道，麦当劳已开始在萨尔瓦多接受比特币。在正式发射前，纳伊布·布克莱总统的政府一直在购买比特币，包括价值至少2000万美元的产品。</blockquote></p><p> But El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.</p><p><blockquote>但萨尔瓦多的加密货币实验并没有得到国际货币基金组织和世界银行等组织的认可，这些组织警告萨尔瓦多，将其作为法定货币可能会危及金融稳定。其他国家正在打击加密交易、采矿和交易所，这表明萨尔瓦多目前可能是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).</p><p><blockquote>加密货币观察人士也将市场低迷归咎于技术因素。加密货币交易研究公司 Fairlead Strategies 的创始人兼管理合伙人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）说，假设价格不会突然飙升，比特币现在将迎来 “外部下跌 ”的一天。这意味着比特币的交易区间更大，收盘价将低于昨天（假设下午 5 点截止，尽管它 24 小时交易）。</blockquote></p><p> “The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”这意味着要进一步整合。她补充说，到目前为止，抛售看起来只是一个小小的挫折，因为比特币还没有突破 4.4 万美元左右的 50 天移动平均线，这是其下一个支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> “A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”44,000 美元的违规并不意味着破产。“这是对 50 天移动平均线的测试。“比特币和大多数接近当前低点的加密货币都有强有力的支撑”。</blockquote></p><p> Other factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.</p><p><blockquote>其他可能导致抛售的因素还包括领先的加密货币交易所 Bitfinix 的停电和 “计划外维护 ”的报道。据 Downdetector 称，Coinbase Global（股票代码：COIN）在中午前后也经历了停电激增。</blockquote></p><p> Even if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.</p><p><blockquote>即使价格从这里稳定下来，这也提醒人们，比特币和其他加密货币仍然容易受到快速下跌的影响。虽然你可以在圣萨尔瓦多买到一个加了一小块比特币的巨无霸，但你最好还是把它放在你的数字钱包里——或者不放在那里——这取决于一天中的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-prices-drop-today-51631048243?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-prices-drop-today-51631048243?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154837170","content_text":"It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.\nBitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.\nOther cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.\nThe selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.\nThe down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.\nMerchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.\nBut El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.\nCrypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).\n“The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.\n“A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”\nOther factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.\nEven if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817409670,"gmtCreate":1630978208990,"gmtModify":1631889755232,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy ","listText":"Buy ","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817409670","repostId":"1111718235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815827322,"gmtCreate":1630668130866,"gmtModify":1631889755244,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815827322","repostId":"2164871801","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811305525,"gmtCreate":1630287659267,"gmtModify":1704957822412,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811305525","repostId":"1137514360","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137514360","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630287425,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137514360?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-30 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla files to sell electricity in Texas<blockquote>特斯拉申请在德克萨斯州出售电力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137514360","media":"cnn","summary":"New York $Tesla Motors$ wants to do more than sell you an electric car. It wants to start selling electricity itself — at least to some people in Texas.It has filed with the Texas Public Utility Commission to generate electricity and sell it directly to the public. Details about its exact plans are not included in the application, and Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. But the company said in its filing it plans to sell electricity directly to consumers, with a focus on those who al","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> wants to do more than sell you an electric car. It wants to start selling electricity itself — at least to some people in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN 商业频道）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>想做的不仅仅是卖给你一辆电动汽车。它想开始自己卖电——至少是卖给德克萨斯州的一些人。</blockquote></p><p> It has filed with the Texas Public Utility Commission to generate electricity and sell it directly to the public. Details about its exact plans are not included in the application, and Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. But the company said in its filing it plans to sell electricity directly to consumers, with a focus on those who already own Tesla cars.</p><p><blockquote>它已向德克萨斯州公用事业委员会申请发电并直接向公众出售。申请中没有包含有关其确切计划的细节，特斯拉也没有回应置评请求。但该公司在文件中表示，计划直接向消费者出售电力，重点是那些已经拥有特斯拉汽车的人。</blockquote></p><p> The filing was first reported by Texas Monthly.</p><p><blockquote>《德克萨斯月刊》首先报道了这份文件。</blockquote></p><p> The company best known for being the largest electric vehicle company in the world also has a solar energy unit. Most of that business is focused on installing solar panels on homes or other buildings, which are then linked to batteries, which Tesla has branded as Powerwalls, used to store excess power captured during the day to provide power at night.</p><p><blockquote>这家以世界上最大的电动汽车公司而闻名的公司也有一个太阳能装置。这项业务的大部分重点是在住宅或其他建筑物上安装太阳能电池板，然后将其连接到电池，特斯拉将电池称为 Powerwalls，用于储存白天捕获的多余电力，以便在晚上提供电力。</blockquote></p><p> But Tesla has a very low-profile business known as \"Megapack\" that builds very large batteries used to store utility-scale amounts of electricity. It built the first of those massive batteries in Hornsdale, Australia, in 2017, and has since expanded the product to other locations.</p><p><blockquote>但特斯拉有一项非常低调的业务，称为“Megapack”，该业务生产非常大的电池，用于储存公用事业规模的电力。该公司于 2017 年在澳大利亚霍恩斯代尔制造了第一个大型电池，此后已将该产品扩展到其他地点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Battery storage is transforming the global electric grid and is an increasingly important element of the world's transition to sustainable energy,\" it said in a 2019 blog post. \"To match global demand for massive battery storage projects like Hornsdale, Tesla designed and engineered a new battery product specifically for utility-scale projects.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司在 2019 年的一篇博客文章中表示：“电池存储正在改变全球电网，并且是世界向可持续能源转型的日益重要的因素。”“为了满足全球对 Hornsdale 等大型电池存储项目的需求，特斯拉专门为公用事业规模项目设计并制造了一种新型电池产品。”</blockquote></p><p> It's a growing business. Tesla has said it is investing more of its available cash in its Megapack. Utilities have reported plans to install over 10,000 megawatts of additional large-scale battery power capacity from 2021 through 2023 from all manner of battery suppliers, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That's up from only 1,650 megawatts of large-scale capacity in place at the end of last year.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不断增长的行业。特斯拉表示，正在将更多可用现金投资于其 Megapack。据美国能源信息署称，公用事业公司已报告计划从 2021 年到 2023 年从各种电池供应商处额外安装超过 10,000 兆瓦的大规模电池发电能力。这比去年年底仅有 1,650 兆瓦的大规模装机容量有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Bloomberg reported earlier this year that Gambit Energy Storage LLC, a Tesla subsidiary, is quietly building a more than 100 megawatt energy storage project in Angleton, Texas, a town roughly 40 miles south of Houston. A battery that size could power about 20,000 homes on a hot summer day.</p><p><blockquote>彭博社今年早些时候报道称，特斯拉子公司 Gambit Energy Storage LLC 正在德克萨斯州安格尔顿镇悄悄建设一个超过 100 兆瓦的储能项目，该镇位于休斯顿以南约 40 英里处。在炎热的夏天，这种尺寸的电池可以为大约20,000个家庭供电。</blockquote></p><p> But, so far, Tesla has sold Megapacks only to other companies and Tesla has not tried to sell directly to consumers. That would change, according to its filing.</p><p><blockquote>但是，到目前为止，特斯拉只向其他公司出售Megapacks，特斯拉还没有尝试直接向消费者出售。根据其文件，这种情况将会改变。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its long association with oil and natural gas, Texas has the third most EVs in the country, behind only California and Florida, according to recent statistics from Electrek. Texas also generates a significant portion of electrical power through solar and wind power, sources of power that need to have storage of electricity since they are not constantly available. Texas generates by far the greatest amount of electricity from wind power of any state and is second only to California for the amount of electricity coming from to solar power, according to the EIA.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Electrek 最近的统计数据，尽管德克萨斯州与石油和天然气有着长期的联系，但其电动汽车数量在全国排名第三，仅次于加利福尼亚州和佛罗里达州。德克萨斯州还通过太阳能和风能产生很大一部分电力，这些能源需要储存电力，因为它们不是持续可用的。根据 EIA 的数据，德克萨斯州的风力发电量是迄今为止所有州中最大的，太阳能发电量仅次于加利福尼亚州。</blockquote></p><p> But its electrical grid suffered a massive failure due to a winter storm in February. Part of the problem was that Texas is the only state in the continental United States not tied into the national grid, which would allow it to tap into other states' electricity supplies at times of crisis. Some electric companies have filed for bankruptcy since then.</p><p><blockquote>但由于二月份的一场冬季风暴，其电网遭受了大规模故障。部分问题是德克萨斯州是美国大陆唯一一个没有接入国家电网的州，这将使其能够在危机时刻利用其他州的电力供应。此后，一些电力公司申请破产。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk made reference to the need for more electrical storage if utilities in Texas are to avoid the problems of this past winter.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克提到，如果德克萨斯州的公用事业公司要避免去年冬天的问题，就需要更多的电力存储。</blockquote></p><p> \"In Texas, there was a peak power demand, and ... because the grid lacks the ability to buffer the power, they have to shut down power. There's no power storage,\" he said in a call with investors in April. He did not mention Megapack on that call, but suggested that the greater adoption of solar panels on homes and Tesla's Powerwalls would help to provide that buffer needed for the grid in Texas and elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>“在德克萨斯州，电力需求达到高峰，而且……由于电网缺乏缓冲电力的能力，他们不得不关闭电源。没有电力存储，”他在4月份与投资者举行的看涨期权上说道。他没有提到看涨期权上的 Megapack，但表示在家庭和特斯拉的 Powerwall 上更多地采用太阳能电池板将有助于为德克萨斯州和其他地方的电网提供所需的缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> This is the latest move by Tesla and Musk to focus more attention on Texas. Tesla is already building its second US car factory outside of Austin, and Musk formally moved his residence to Texas, he disclosed in December. Last year during a fight over Covid-19 public health restrictions that Musk opposed, he threatened he would move Tesla's headquarters to Texas, but he never followed through on that threat.</p><p><blockquote>这是特斯拉和马斯克将更多注意力集中在德克萨斯的最新举措。特斯拉已经在奥斯汀以外建造第二家美国汽车工厂，马斯克去年 12 月透露，他已正式将住所迁至德克萨斯州。去年，在马斯克反对的一场关于 Covid-19 公共卫生限制的斗争中，他威胁要将特斯拉总部迁至德克萨斯州，但他从未兑现这一威胁。</blockquote></p><p> In addition his rocket company SpaceX also has a strong presence in South Texas, include a sprawling manufacturing facility, launch and landing pads, where the company is building and testing early versions of Starship, its gargantuan rocket that Musk hopes will one day be used to carry people to the moon and Mars.</p><p><blockquote>此外，他的火箭公司SpaceX在德克萨斯州南部也有强大的影响力，包括一个庞大的制造工厂、发射台和着陆台，该公司正在那里建造和测试Starship的早期版本，这是一款巨大的火箭，马斯克希望有一天能用来将人们运送到月球和火星。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla files to sell electricity in Texas<blockquote>特斯拉申请在德克萨斯州出售电力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla files to sell electricity in Texas<blockquote>特斯拉申请在德克萨斯州出售电力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-30 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> wants to do more than sell you an electric car. It wants to start selling electricity itself — at least to some people in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN 商业频道）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>想做的不仅仅是卖给你一辆电动汽车。它想开始自己卖电——至少是卖给德克萨斯州的一些人。</blockquote></p><p> It has filed with the Texas Public Utility Commission to generate electricity and sell it directly to the public. Details about its exact plans are not included in the application, and Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. But the company said in its filing it plans to sell electricity directly to consumers, with a focus on those who already own Tesla cars.</p><p><blockquote>它已向德克萨斯州公用事业委员会申请发电并直接向公众出售。申请中没有包含有关其确切计划的细节，特斯拉也没有回应置评请求。但该公司在文件中表示，计划直接向消费者出售电力，重点是那些已经拥有特斯拉汽车的人。</blockquote></p><p> The filing was first reported by Texas Monthly.</p><p><blockquote>《德克萨斯月刊》首先报道了这份文件。</blockquote></p><p> The company best known for being the largest electric vehicle company in the world also has a solar energy unit. Most of that business is focused on installing solar panels on homes or other buildings, which are then linked to batteries, which Tesla has branded as Powerwalls, used to store excess power captured during the day to provide power at night.</p><p><blockquote>这家以世界上最大的电动汽车公司而闻名的公司也有一个太阳能装置。这项业务的大部分重点是在住宅或其他建筑物上安装太阳能电池板，然后将其连接到电池，特斯拉将电池称为 Powerwalls，用于储存白天捕获的多余电力，以便在晚上提供电力。</blockquote></p><p> But Tesla has a very low-profile business known as \"Megapack\" that builds very large batteries used to store utility-scale amounts of electricity. It built the first of those massive batteries in Hornsdale, Australia, in 2017, and has since expanded the product to other locations.</p><p><blockquote>但特斯拉有一项非常低调的业务，称为“Megapack”，该业务生产非常大的电池，用于储存公用事业规模的电力。该公司于 2017 年在澳大利亚霍恩斯代尔制造了第一个大型电池，此后已将该产品扩展到其他地点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Battery storage is transforming the global electric grid and is an increasingly important element of the world's transition to sustainable energy,\" it said in a 2019 blog post. \"To match global demand for massive battery storage projects like Hornsdale, Tesla designed and engineered a new battery product specifically for utility-scale projects.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司在 2019 年的一篇博客文章中表示：“电池存储正在改变全球电网，并且是世界向可持续能源转型的日益重要的因素。”“为了满足全球对 Hornsdale 等大型电池存储项目的需求，特斯拉专门为公用事业规模项目设计并制造了一种新型电池产品。”</blockquote></p><p> It's a growing business. Tesla has said it is investing more of its available cash in its Megapack. Utilities have reported plans to install over 10,000 megawatts of additional large-scale battery power capacity from 2021 through 2023 from all manner of battery suppliers, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That's up from only 1,650 megawatts of large-scale capacity in place at the end of last year.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不断增长的行业。特斯拉表示，正在将更多可用现金投资于其 Megapack。据美国能源信息署称，公用事业公司已报告计划从 2021 年到 2023 年从各种电池供应商处额外安装超过 10,000 兆瓦的大规模电池发电能力。这比去年年底仅有 1,650 兆瓦的大规模装机容量有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Bloomberg reported earlier this year that Gambit Energy Storage LLC, a Tesla subsidiary, is quietly building a more than 100 megawatt energy storage project in Angleton, Texas, a town roughly 40 miles south of Houston. A battery that size could power about 20,000 homes on a hot summer day.</p><p><blockquote>彭博社今年早些时候报道称，特斯拉子公司 Gambit Energy Storage LLC 正在德克萨斯州安格尔顿镇悄悄建设一个超过 100 兆瓦的储能项目，该镇位于休斯顿以南约 40 英里处。在炎热的夏天，这种尺寸的电池可以为大约20,000个家庭供电。</blockquote></p><p> But, so far, Tesla has sold Megapacks only to other companies and Tesla has not tried to sell directly to consumers. That would change, according to its filing.</p><p><blockquote>但是，到目前为止，特斯拉只向其他公司出售Megapacks，特斯拉还没有尝试直接向消费者出售。根据其文件，这种情况将会改变。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its long association with oil and natural gas, Texas has the third most EVs in the country, behind only California and Florida, according to recent statistics from Electrek. Texas also generates a significant portion of electrical power through solar and wind power, sources of power that need to have storage of electricity since they are not constantly available. Texas generates by far the greatest amount of electricity from wind power of any state and is second only to California for the amount of electricity coming from to solar power, according to the EIA.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Electrek 最近的统计数据，尽管德克萨斯州与石油和天然气有着长期的联系，但其电动汽车数量在全国排名第三，仅次于加利福尼亚州和佛罗里达州。德克萨斯州还通过太阳能和风能产生很大一部分电力，这些能源需要储存电力，因为它们不是持续可用的。根据 EIA 的数据，德克萨斯州的风力发电量是迄今为止所有州中最大的，太阳能发电量仅次于加利福尼亚州。</blockquote></p><p> But its electrical grid suffered a massive failure due to a winter storm in February. Part of the problem was that Texas is the only state in the continental United States not tied into the national grid, which would allow it to tap into other states' electricity supplies at times of crisis. Some electric companies have filed for bankruptcy since then.</p><p><blockquote>但由于二月份的一场冬季风暴，其电网遭受了大规模故障。部分问题是德克萨斯州是美国大陆唯一一个没有接入国家电网的州，这将使其能够在危机时刻利用其他州的电力供应。此后，一些电力公司申请破产。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk made reference to the need for more electrical storage if utilities in Texas are to avoid the problems of this past winter.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克提到，如果德克萨斯州的公用事业公司要避免去年冬天的问题，就需要更多的电力存储。</blockquote></p><p> \"In Texas, there was a peak power demand, and ... because the grid lacks the ability to buffer the power, they have to shut down power. There's no power storage,\" he said in a call with investors in April. He did not mention Megapack on that call, but suggested that the greater adoption of solar panels on homes and Tesla's Powerwalls would help to provide that buffer needed for the grid in Texas and elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>“在德克萨斯州，电力需求达到高峰，而且……由于电网缺乏缓冲电力的能力，他们不得不关闭电源。没有电力存储，”他在4月份与投资者举行的看涨期权上说道。他没有提到看涨期权上的 Megapack，但表示在家庭和特斯拉的 Powerwall 上更多地采用太阳能电池板将有助于为德克萨斯州和其他地方的电网提供所需的缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> This is the latest move by Tesla and Musk to focus more attention on Texas. Tesla is already building its second US car factory outside of Austin, and Musk formally moved his residence to Texas, he disclosed in December. Last year during a fight over Covid-19 public health restrictions that Musk opposed, he threatened he would move Tesla's headquarters to Texas, but he never followed through on that threat.</p><p><blockquote>这是特斯拉和马斯克将更多注意力集中在德克萨斯的最新举措。特斯拉已经在奥斯汀以外建造第二家美国汽车工厂，马斯克去年 12 月透露，他已正式将住所迁至德克萨斯州。去年，在马斯克反对的一场关于 Covid-19 公共卫生限制的斗争中，他威胁要将特斯拉总部迁至德克萨斯州，但他从未兑现这一威胁。</blockquote></p><p> In addition his rocket company SpaceX also has a strong presence in South Texas, include a sprawling manufacturing facility, launch and landing pads, where the company is building and testing early versions of Starship, its gargantuan rocket that Musk hopes will one day be used to carry people to the moon and Mars.</p><p><blockquote>此外，他的火箭公司SpaceX在德克萨斯州南部也有强大的影响力，包括一个庞大的制造工厂、发射台和着陆台，该公司正在那里建造和测试Starship的早期版本，这是一款巨大的火箭，马斯克希望有一天能用来将人们运送到月球和火星。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/27/business/tesla-electricity/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/27/business/tesla-electricity/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137514360","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Tesla Motors wants to do more than sell you an electric car. It wants to start selling electricity itself — at least to some people in Texas.\nIt has filed with the Texas Public Utility Commission to generate electricity and sell it directly to the public. Details about its exact plans are not included in the application, and Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. But the company said in its filing it plans to sell electricity directly to consumers, with a focus on those who already own Tesla cars.\nThe filing was first reported by Texas Monthly.\nThe company best known for being the largest electric vehicle company in the world also has a solar energy unit. Most of that business is focused on installing solar panels on homes or other buildings, which are then linked to batteries, which Tesla has branded as Powerwalls, used to store excess power captured during the day to provide power at night.\nBut Tesla has a very low-profile business known as \"Megapack\" that builds very large batteries used to store utility-scale amounts of electricity. It built the first of those massive batteries in Hornsdale, Australia, in 2017, and has since expanded the product to other locations.\n\"Battery storage is transforming the global electric grid and is an increasingly important element of the world's transition to sustainable energy,\" it said in a 2019 blog post. \"To match global demand for massive battery storage projects like Hornsdale, Tesla designed and engineered a new battery product specifically for utility-scale projects.\"\nIt's a growing business. Tesla has said it is investing more of its available cash in its Megapack. Utilities have reported plans to install over 10,000 megawatts of additional large-scale battery power capacity from 2021 through 2023 from all manner of battery suppliers, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That's up from only 1,650 megawatts of large-scale capacity in place at the end of last year.\nBloomberg reported earlier this year that Gambit Energy Storage LLC, a Tesla subsidiary, is quietly building a more than 100 megawatt energy storage project in Angleton, Texas, a town roughly 40 miles south of Houston. A battery that size could power about 20,000 homes on a hot summer day.\nBut, so far, Tesla has sold Megapacks only to other companies and Tesla has not tried to sell directly to consumers. That would change, according to its filing.\nDespite its long association with oil and natural gas, Texas has the third most EVs in the country, behind only California and Florida, according to recent statistics from Electrek. Texas also generates a significant portion of electrical power through solar and wind power, sources of power that need to have storage of electricity since they are not constantly available. Texas generates by far the greatest amount of electricity from wind power of any state and is second only to California for the amount of electricity coming from to solar power, according to the EIA.\nBut its electrical grid suffered a massive failure due to a winter storm in February. Part of the problem was that Texas is the only state in the continental United States not tied into the national grid, which would allow it to tap into other states' electricity supplies at times of crisis. Some electric companies have filed for bankruptcy since then.\nCEO Elon Musk made reference to the need for more electrical storage if utilities in Texas are to avoid the problems of this past winter.\n\"In Texas, there was a peak power demand, and ... because the grid lacks the ability to buffer the power, they have to shut down power. There's no power storage,\" he said in a call with investors in April. He did not mention Megapack on that call, but suggested that the greater adoption of solar panels on homes and Tesla's Powerwalls would help to provide that buffer needed for the grid in Texas and elsewhere.\nThis is the latest move by Tesla and Musk to focus more attention on Texas. Tesla is already building its second US car factory outside of Austin, and Musk formally moved his residence to Texas, he disclosed in December. Last year during a fight over Covid-19 public health restrictions that Musk opposed, he threatened he would move Tesla's headquarters to Texas, but he never followed through on that threat.\nIn addition his rocket company SpaceX also has a strong presence in South Texas, include a sprawling manufacturing facility, launch and landing pads, where the company is building and testing early versions of Starship, its gargantuan rocket that Musk hopes will one day be used to carry people to the moon and Mars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813618609,"gmtCreate":1630197253601,"gmtModify":1704956841057,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813618609","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813932997,"gmtCreate":1630119442219,"gmtModify":1704956247821,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813932997","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819190824,"gmtCreate":1630040421068,"gmtModify":1704955047952,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819190824","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810367643,"gmtCreate":1629945408682,"gmtModify":1631891691130,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810367643","repostId":"1197778368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835919893,"gmtCreate":1629683752612,"gmtModify":1631891691134,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835919893","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836427232,"gmtCreate":1629516827926,"gmtModify":1631891691134,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559873043762670","idStr":"3559873043762670"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836427232","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere & Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere & Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QCOM":"高通","ON":"安森美半导体","SNPS":"新思科技","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果","SSNLF":"三星电子","GOOG":"谷歌","CDNS":"铿腾电子","ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford 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