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人人有功练

人人有功练

永远不将自己置于危险境地

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人人有功练

12-08 09:56

预计营收1块钱～10万亿

季度业绩前瞻 | 小米集团-W：汽车业务盈利，预测Q4一致预期营收694.45~1553.03亿元，

人人有功练

11-24

$GOOG 20260116 300.0 CALL$

人人有功练

11-19

$GOOG 20260116 300.0 CALL$

人人有功练

10-28

$AAPL 20260116 280.0 CALL$

人人有功练

09-25

$MIU.HK 20260929 70.00 CALL$ 挣零花

人人有功练

09-19

看不懂啊

花旗：将英特尔评级从中性下调至卖出

人人有功练

09-18

$ADBE 20260918 500.0 CALL$

人人有功练

09-12

$ADBE 20260918 500.0 CALL$

人人有功练

09-11

说句实话，应该把到店团购也放在淘宝首页而不是以高德为主

杰富瑞：阿里巴巴云服务和一站式消费平台仍有进一步上行空间

人人有功练

09-09

$36氪(KRKR)$ 我信你个鬼，得亏是模拟[开心]

人人有功练

09-02

$CROX 20260618 100.0 CALL$

人人有功练

08-19

$CROX 20260618 100.0 CALL$

人人有功练

08-19

英特尔这股真是热点不断

软银将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股

人人有功练

08-06

$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ 卖了，见好就收

人人有功练

08-05

吹吧

史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点

人人有功练

08-04

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 其实想入点，不过过2天又是财报了怕暴雷，算了不赌了

人人有功练

08-01

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ $联合健康(UNH)$ 都清仓了，去研究科技股巨头了，科技股虽然有时也跌的非常狠，但大概率总能涨回来有回本希望；但上边这类水货有时八辈子也别想回本

人人有功练

08-01

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 40见，川建国同志又趁乱搞事

人人有功练

07-31

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 底在40

人人有功练

07-24

$联合健康(UNH)$ 请问发生了啥事

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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19:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"季度业绩前瞻 | 小米集团-W：汽车业务盈利，预测Q4一致预期营收694.45~1553.03亿元，","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2589891133","media":"朝阳永续","summary":"智能汽车 等创新业务收入增长显著，达到290亿元，毛利率25.5%。汽车业务首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元，但毛利率受SU7ultra交付量减少影响环比下降。手机业务高端化战略成效显著，但毛利率受存储涨价影响环比下滑。","content":"<html><body><article><p>1.  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>集团 -W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？</p><p>截至2025年12月05日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：</p><p>预测公司Q4一致预期<span>营业收入</span>694.45~1553.03亿元，同比变动-36.3%~42.5%；</p><p>预测公司Q4一致预期<span>净利润</span>-106.39~117.92亿元，同比变动-218.3%~31.1%；</p><p>预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润67.13~133.96亿元，同比变动-19.3%~61.1%。</p><p>关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251205192054803d206xfpdou1v30n\"/><p>2.  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>集团 -W最新卖方观点</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">华安证券</a> 认为： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>集团 -W在2025年第三季度的业绩表现稳健，总收入达到1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，毛利率提升至22.9%，经调整净利润为113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务收入460亿元，毛利率11.1%，IoT业务收入276亿元，毛利率23.9%， 互联网 业务收入94亿元，毛利率76.9%。 智能汽车 等创新业务收入增长显著，达到290亿元，毛利率25.5%。汽车业务首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元，但毛利率受SU7ultra交付量减少影响环比下降。手机业务高端化战略成效显著，但毛利率受存储涨价影响环比下滑。AIoT业务收入增速因国补退坡而收窄。</p><p>分业务来说：</p><p>1)智能汽车业务：三季度收入290亿元，同比增长199.2%，首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元。</p><p>2)手机业务：Q3出货量4330万台，市占率13.6%，中国大陆地区4000-6000元价位段市占率达18.9%，小米17系列首月销量同比上一代增长近30%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002670\">国盛证券</a> 认为： 小米集团 -W在2025Q3季度实现收入1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，经调整净利润约113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务全球出货量达4330万台，高端化战略显著，大陆地区高端手机销量占比24.1%。IoT业务中，小米平板、TWS耳机和可穿戴腕带设备出货量领先，AIoT平台连接设备数突破10亿台。汽车及AI创新业务首次实现单季度经营盈利，交付量约10.9万台。尽管面临短期行业扰动， 小米集团 凭借高端化和全生态战略，展现出长期竞争力。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>季度业绩前瞻 | 小米集团-W：汽车业务盈利，预测Q4一致预期营收694.45~1553.03亿元，</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n季度业绩前瞻 | 小米集团-W：汽车业务盈利，预测Q4一致预期营收694.45~1553.03亿元，\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-05 19:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251205192057952cb8b4&s=b><strong>朝阳永续</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1.  小米集团 -W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2025年12月05日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入694.45~1553.03亿元，同比变动-36.3%~42.5%；预测公司Q4一致预期净利润-106.39~117.92亿元，同比变动-218.3%~31.1%；预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润67.13~133.96亿元，同比变动-19.3%~61.1%。关注后续...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251205192057952cb8b4&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251205192057952cb8b4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2589891133","content_text":"1.  小米集团 -W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2025年12月05日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入694.45~1553.03亿元，同比变动-36.3%~42.5%；预测公司Q4一致预期净利润-106.39~117.92亿元，同比变动-218.3%~31.1%；预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润67.13~133.96亿元，同比变动-19.3%~61.1%。关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。2.  小米集团 -W最新卖方观点华安证券 认为： 小米集团 -W在2025年第三季度的业绩表现稳健，总收入达到1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，毛利率提升至22.9%，经调整净利润为113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务收入460亿元，毛利率11.1%，IoT业务收入276亿元，毛利率23.9%， 互联网 业务收入94亿元，毛利率76.9%。 智能汽车 等创新业务收入增长显著，达到290亿元，毛利率25.5%。汽车业务首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元，但毛利率受SU7ultra交付量减少影响环比下降。手机业务高端化战略成效显著，但毛利率受存储涨价影响环比下滑。AIoT业务收入增速因国补退坡而收窄。分业务来说：1)智能汽车业务：三季度收入290亿元，同比增长199.2%，首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元。2)手机业务：Q3出货量4330万台，市占率13.6%，中国大陆地区4000-6000元价位段市占率达18.9%，小米17系列首月销量同比上一代增长近30%。国盛证券 认为： 小米集团 -W在2025Q3季度实现收入1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，经调整净利润约113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务全球出货量达4330万台，高端化战略显著，大陆地区高端手机销量占比24.1%。IoT业务中，小米平板、TWS耳机和可穿戴腕带设备出货量领先，AIoT平台连接设备数突破10亿台。汽车及AI创新业务首次实现单季度经营盈利，交付量约10.9万台。尽管面临短期行业扰动， 小米集团 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250919180949a72a10c2&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250919180949a72a10c2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2568997254","content_text":"花旗：将英特尔评级从中性下调至卖出；将目标价从24美元上调至29美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3462396565804988","authorId":"3462396565804988","name":"逆向分析师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a030da24eb4cbe664584c68eca1c40df","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3462396565804988","authorIdStr":"3462396565804988"},"content":"说明花旗认为当前状态是估值提升下的超买了","text":"说明花旗认为当前状态是估值提升下的超买了","html":"说明花旗认为当前状态是估值提升下的超买了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479964036919432,"gmtCreate":1758202400172,"gmtModify":1758202402624,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:07","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"杰富瑞：阿里巴巴云服务和一站式消费平台仍有进一步上行空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2566328929","media":"格隆汇","summary":"杰富瑞分析师在研报中表示，基于近期发展和行业趋势，阿里巴巴的云服务和一站式消费平台仍有进一步上行空间。阿里云AI相关收入在9月季度可能继续录得三位数增长。阿里巴巴有望继续释放即时零售与传统电商之间的协","content":"<html><body><p>杰富瑞分析师在研报中表示，基于近期发展和行业趋势，阿里巴巴的云服务和一站式消费平台仍有进一步上行空间。阿里云AI相关收入在9月季度可能继续录得三位数增长。阿里巴巴有望继续释放即时零售与传统电商之间的协同效应，以提升用户黏性。阿里巴巴本周在其高德上线“扫街榜”，推荐本地商户，这一举措预计将推动高德进一步成为生活服务的入口。杰富瑞维持对阿里巴巴的“买入”评级，并将其ADR目标价从165美元上调至178美元。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>杰富瑞：阿里巴巴云服务和一站式消费平台仍有进一步上行空间</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0608807433.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS DYNAMIC INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU1960683339.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (HKD) ACC","HBBD.SI":"Alibaba HK SDR 5to1","LU0047713382.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS \"A2\" ACC","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","BK1586":"云计算","IE00BPRC5H50.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0577902538.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Growth and Income Equities A Acc SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LU1366334651.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY 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CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7de6267323016ce25c95d664a56db7f","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474567274004592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469323455553760,"gmtCreate":1755612155203,"gmtModify":1755612157168,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CROX 20260618 100.0 CALL\">$CROX 20260618 100.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CROX 20260618 100.0 CALL\">$CROX 20260618 100.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$CROX 20260618 100.0 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07:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"软银将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180158298","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英特尔盘后一度涨超4%！软银与英特尔签署20亿美元投资协议，将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>英特尔盘后急涨超4%！软银与英特尔签署20亿美元投资协议，将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f1572488fdcf4b576109a91ea456e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"154\"/></p><p></p><p>消息面上，软银集团与英特尔公司（纳斯达克代码：INTC）今日宣布签署最终证券购买协议。根据该协议，软银将对英特尔的普通股进行20亿美元的投资。</p><p>此项投资正值英特尔和软银双方深化其在美国投资先进技术和半导体创新的承诺之际。</p><p>软银集团株式会社董事长兼首席执行官孙正义（Masayoshi Son）表示：</p><p>“半导体是每个行业的基石。五十多年来，英特尔一直是创新领域值得信赖的领导者。此项战略投资反映了我们的信念，即先进的半导体制造和供应将在美国进一步扩张，而英特尔将发挥关键作用。”</p><p>英特尔首席执行官陈立武（Lip-Bu Tan）表示：</p><p>“我们非常高兴能深化与软银的关系。软银在众多新兴技术和创新领域处于前沿地位，并和我们一样致力于推动美国的技术和制造领先地位。我与孙正义先生密切合作数十年，我感谢他通过此项投资对英特尔所展现的信心。”</p><p>根据协议条款，软银将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股。该交易尚待满足常规交割条件。</p><p>软银对英特尔的投资建立在其长期愿景之上，旨在通过加速获取支持数字化转型、云计算和下一代基础设施技术的先进技术来推动人工智能革命。</p><p 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n软银将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-19 07:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>英特尔盘后急涨超4%！软银与英特尔签署20亿美元投资协议，将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f1572488fdcf4b576109a91ea456e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"154\"/></p><p></p><p>消息面上，软银集团与英特尔公司（纳斯达克代码：INTC）今日宣布签署最终证券购买协议。根据该协议，软银将对英特尔的普通股进行20亿美元的投资。</p><p>此项投资正值英特尔和软银双方深化其在美国投资先进技术和半导体创新的承诺之际。</p><p>软银集团株式会社董事长兼首席执行官孙正义（Masayoshi Son）表示：</p><p>“半导体是每个行业的基石。五十多年来，英特尔一直是创新领域值得信赖的领导者。此项战略投资反映了我们的信念，即先进的半导体制造和供应将在美国进一步扩张，而英特尔将发挥关键作用。”</p><p>英特尔首席执行官陈立武（Lip-Bu Tan）表示：</p><p>“我们非常高兴能深化与软银的关系。软银在众多新兴技术和创新领域处于前沿地位，并和我们一样致力于推动美国的技术和制造领先地位。我与孙正义先生密切合作数十年，我感谢他通过此项投资对英特尔所展现的信心。”</p><p>根据协议条款，软银将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股。该交易尚待满足常规交割条件。</p><p>软银对英特尔的投资建立在其长期愿景之上，旨在通过加速获取支持数字化转型、云计算和下一代基础设施技术的先进技术来推动人工智能革命。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56e8c10fc493d71301178d8279d556a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"487\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e58fcd4a67c330616cf11ed02c0ac7c5","relate_stocks":{"SFTBY":"软银集团","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180158298","content_text":"英特尔盘后急涨超4%！软银与英特尔签署20亿美元投资协议，将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股。消息面上，软银集团与英特尔公司（纳斯达克代码：INTC）今日宣布签署最终证券购买协议。根据该协议，软银将对英特尔的普通股进行20亿美元的投资。此项投资正值英特尔和软银双方深化其在美国投资先进技术和半导体创新的承诺之际。软银集团株式会社董事长兼首席执行官孙正义（Masayoshi Son）表示：“半导体是每个行业的基石。五十多年来，英特尔一直是创新领域值得信赖的领导者。此项战略投资反映了我们的信念，即先进的半导体制造和供应将在美国进一步扩张，而英特尔将发挥关键作用。”英特尔首席执行官陈立武（Lip-Bu Tan）表示：“我们非常高兴能深化与软银的关系。软银在众多新兴技术和创新领域处于前沿地位，并和我们一样致力于推动美国的技术和制造领先地位。我与孙正义先生密切合作数十年，我感谢他通过此项投资对英特尔所展现的信心。”根据协议条款，软银将以每股23美元的价格购买英特尔普通股。该交易尚待满足常规交割条件。软银对英特尔的投资建立在其长期愿景之上，旨在通过加速获取支持数字化转型、云计算和下一代基础设施技术的先进技术来推动人工智能革命。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SFTBY":1.1,"INTC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464768861413672,"gmtCreate":1754494467011,"gmtModify":1754494469749,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ </a> 卖了，见好就收","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ </a> 卖了，见好就收","text":"$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ 卖了，见好就收","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d898074d781058ff6acc8cab4cd7e08","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464768861413672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461586073682313","authorId":"3461586073682313","name":"Leader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5c2573e1e23bea3da9040a94847c190b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3461586073682313","authorIdStr":"3461586073682313"},"content":"不错，有眼光[财迷]","text":"不错，有眼光[财迷]","html":"不错，有眼光[财迷]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464266762895360,"gmtCreate":1754371504217,"gmtModify":1754371505773,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"吹吧","listText":"吹吧","text":"吹吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464266762895360","repostId":"2556875443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2556875443","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股官方账号，专注让专业更简单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"1077578553","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7"},"pubTimestamp":1754315134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2556875443?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-04 21:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2556875443","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“即将到来的A股史诗级牛市会掀翻6124高点，并且把这一历史峰值‘踩’在脚下。”信汇泉总经理孙加滢近日在与凤凰网财经对话时，如此预测。</strong></p><p>今年6月底以来，A股表现持续强势，站上3600点的高位。在这一时间点上，投资者对牛市的期待也越来越高。孙加滢表示，现在已经来到史诗级牛市的起点。某种程度上，史诗级牛市的出现是一种必然——根据他的研究，全球进入工业化序列的国家，在进入工业化成熟阶段后，普遍出现股市的连续上涨，并且上涨幅度将“相当大”。</p><p>牛市何时到来？如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？以下为对话实录，在不改变原意的基础上有删减。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a41270d6e3d3d868e03c846e1ff8905\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>“炒股挣的钱很难留住”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾表示现在是史诗级牛市的起点，牛市何时到来？能“牛”到什么程度？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>目前大概率进入整体向上的周期，时间节点很难具体预测，只能说是一步步看宏观情况。我们偏向于本轮牛市很难超过2007年的牛市，因为那波是从998的低点涨到了6124，相当于六倍上涨。如果（本轮）从2600开始算起，以涨幅六倍计算，指数将升至15000点，这是让人很难想象的。但是这轮牛市的上涨空间和幅度，我们还是偏向会将6124这个高点掀翻，并且把它“踩”在脚下。只有这样才能体现所谓“史诗级牛市”的气魄。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>为什么会出现史诗级牛市？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们在做各个国家股市研究时发现，进入工业化序列的国家，都经历过长期震荡，并且震荡后出现一路向上的走势。比如韩国股市和日本股市，德国、法国、美国这些进入工业化序列的国家也出现类似情况。</p><p>我结合罗斯托工业化进程和达里奥国家生命周期，对此进行解读，能够解释这个现象。基本上在工业化起飞前和起飞阶段，股市都会经历长周期震荡，但是进入工业化成熟阶段，普遍出现一波股市的连续上涨，并且这种上涨可以称之为史诗级，因为在历史上观测到呈现高点不断突破、低点不断抬高，并且抬高的幅度相当大的过程，而且是在短短几年内。</p><p>像韩国股市，就在短短八年内完成了四倍到五倍的上涨。美国在1932年完成工业化成熟，实际上我们看到它的股市上涨，是从1932年一直到现在，将近100年的牛市。当然了，中间的每一次震荡周期时间也比较长，但总体是连续向上的。这是我们当时做完研究后的结论。</p><p>虽然现在看，“史诗级牛市将至”这样的话术，大家可能觉得有一些夸张。但有时候可能是因为我们身处在这一过程中，所以并不能完全看清，“不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”。只有经历过，我们回头看才会发现，原来的确是这样。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4481137aa64542897feba50f30e759\" alt=\"\"/><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>史诗级牛市能让所有人赚到钱吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>美国股市从81年一直涨到现在，如果大家都能在股市中赚到钱，那美国的个人投资者应该很有钱。通过股票能够赚钱的人数是很少的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>如果想成为受益的少数群体，现在应该怎么做？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>市场一般经历四个阶段，坚决不信；怀疑相信、等待回调；市场大涨看不懂市场；然后完全相信真的接盘。往往大家亏钱的原因，是低点低仓位，高点高仓位，浮盈加仓一把亏光。想要在这个市场赚到钱，个人投资者要么早信，要么就干脆不信。还要敢于和大众媒体以及市场作对，跌得多的时候敢加仓，涨得多的时候忌贪婪，在顶部的时候全部减仓。怎么判断是否到顶，就要依靠个人认知了。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>有观点认为股市大涨能够提振消费，您怎么看？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>这是毋庸置疑的。股市一旦上涨，虚拟进账增加，会给人带来很强烈的财富幻觉。只要当天指数涨了3%，周围各个饭店肯定是爆满，大家晚上一定想要寻开心，花钱一定会大手大脚。但是这给未来留下不好的伏笔，只要自己炒股票，后续还会亏回去，大手大脚的习惯养成了，在亏回去的时候很难戒掉。股票市场不可能带着所有人发家致富，有足够高的认知和足够的人性把握，才能在这里赚到、留住。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>“中国股市不可能跌多狠”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>能否预测一下中国股市走势？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国资金呈现多方面的剩余，金融资本剩余、产业资本剩余、民间自由资本剩余。如此庞大的剩余资金没有出处，必然会找到一个大家熟知估值比较低的场所宣泄。目前来看，中国的股市是唯一比较符合要求的，它承载量足够大。如果这是必然，市场不可能跌多狠，也就不是下跌的时候无限悲观，上涨的时候无限乐观，注定是有底和顶。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>“牛短熊长”还会重演吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们觉得还会出现。之所以出现这种情况，是因为资金筹码之间产生的博弈，并不是来自基本面的股市上涨和下跌，而是非常强大的情绪冲击。所谓的大家说的“牛短熊长”，是每一个参与股市投资和基金投资的人造就的。大家的钱全涌过来，一定会把股市打成泡沫，然后再回归。存量资本的几次洗刷之后，我们才有可能迎来牛长熊短的过程。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减持态势。如何看待近期外资投资境内股票总体向好？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国是全世界生活最为安全、便利的国家，也是最大经济体之一，并且还有如此便宜的股市，一定会受到国际资本的追捧，只是时间节奏的问题。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>“巴菲特‘身体很诚实’，实际上就是看空美国”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：如何看待美国金融市场近期动态？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>拘泥于越小的事件，得出的结论越充满偶然性，因此应该从全局角度去观察。对目前的美国而言，降息不降息都是小问题，核心是美国每年12000亿的财政亏空。对任何一个国家而言，巨额财政赤字、高负债都是极其危险的信号。美国财政亏空，本可以通过像罗斯福新政一样对富人进行征税，但是现在却反其道而行之。美国必须要重新有一个像罗斯福一样有魄力、有能力、有担当的领导扭转大局，否则只能再去吞下QE（量化宽松）这颗剧毒药丸。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾经表示巴菲特并不是不看好黄金，而是之前黄金涨价下不去手。面对如今黄金的涨势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>如何操作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>巴菲特是全球资管圈的一个例外，全球只有一个巴菲特。巴菲特其实很“诚实”，</p><p>他实际上是在唱空美国。他目前在美国的持仓和各种情况，等同于在1968年关掉他自己的私募基金，并且买了大量的日本股市股票，那几个商社从盈利能力和地位看，相当于日本国企。日本大型国企盈利稳定、估值便宜，本身就是在对冲美元贬值的风险。由于他存在的地位和意义比较特殊，他不能说真实看空美国的想法，但是实质他做的行为就是如此。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>美股出现高位回落的可能性如何？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>很难判断什么时候到顶或什么时间回落，但我们认为这个位置绝对不能下注。2022年以后美国股市上涨过的所有东西都不值得下注。因为他们在用某一种叙事支撑这种高估值。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>“发明者吃螃蟹的叙事是错的，是美国用来解释<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：怎么理解您说的“叙事支撑美股高估值”？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>任何新事物的发明者，最后只能占据这个市场的5%，甚至不到5%的市场空间和利润。不是谁发明谁最后吃螃蟹，而是后续谁的效仿能力强。这种发明者胜出的叙事方式，是美国强加给我们的，是他们用来解释英伟达为什么这么强的一个叙事方式。但我可以明确说，在商业史上，在科技史上，这个叙事方式是错的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>英伟达成为全球首家市值突破4万亿美元的上市公司。你怎么看待英伟达？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>从这家公司市值36000亿的时候，我就一直在讲，英伟达很好很不错，但是它真的有那么好吗？它只是一家软件设计类的企业，商业模式上，消费和收入端存在一次性支出的嫌疑。如果我们理解为英伟达将保持永久性的领先，我想是错误的。当这个预期、这个叙事过程进行反杀的话，高估值泡沫会怎么样？2000年的互联网泡沫会出现什么？顶部时期去讲逻辑，是投资里面最可怕的事情，就会变成所谓真信的，真的要接盘。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>特朗普称美国是人工智能竞赛的发起国，并且抛出新的AI发展计划，企图维持美国在关键技术领域对中国的优势。如何看待他们的动作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>在AI还没有火起来的时候，几年以前李开复就已经对这个问题看的很清楚了。AI的核心是海量的数据，而不是仅仅依靠算力跟算法。哪里有海量的数据呢？在网络信息层面来说，中国才有这种海量的数据。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>之前您谈到下一轮技术革命时表示，目前看不出有新的技术能够带来生产效率的大幅提升，AI还不算。怎么理解您这个观点？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>能够掀起新一轮工业革命的东西，一定是能够提高生产效率，而且这种提高不是20%至30%，应该几何级数的提高，就像当年的蒸汽机推动棉纺织一样。所有的工业化生产物品，价格出现系统性的下移，新的工厂能够把价格砍掉40%至50%。那么目前我们去看 AI，还没有案例和数据能够证明AI大幅提升工业化部门生产效率。</p><p>我们只能说可以预期AI未来会实现在工业部门的应用，但目前还不能完全确定。以现在的Deepseek为例，我们承认它为搜索资料带来很多便利，但是它不是一个很好的下结论的工具，可以说现在还是“人云亦云”的阶段。多数人怎么说，它就怎么答复用户，还不能形成独立判断。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1077578553\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-04 21:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“即将到来的A股史诗级牛市会掀翻6124高点，并且把这一历史峰值‘踩’在脚下。”信汇泉总经理孙加滢近日在与凤凰网财经对话时，如此预测。</strong></p><p>今年6月底以来，A股表现持续强势，站上3600点的高位。在这一时间点上，投资者对牛市的期待也越来越高。孙加滢表示，现在已经来到史诗级牛市的起点。某种程度上，史诗级牛市的出现是一种必然——根据他的研究，全球进入工业化序列的国家，在进入工业化成熟阶段后，普遍出现股市的连续上涨，并且上涨幅度将“相当大”。</p><p>牛市何时到来？如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？以下为对话实录，在不改变原意的基础上有删减。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a41270d6e3d3d868e03c846e1ff8905\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>“炒股挣的钱很难留住”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾表示现在是史诗级牛市的起点，牛市何时到来？能“牛”到什么程度？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>目前大概率进入整体向上的周期，时间节点很难具体预测，只能说是一步步看宏观情况。我们偏向于本轮牛市很难超过2007年的牛市，因为那波是从998的低点涨到了6124，相当于六倍上涨。如果（本轮）从2600开始算起，以涨幅六倍计算，指数将升至15000点，这是让人很难想象的。但是这轮牛市的上涨空间和幅度，我们还是偏向会将6124这个高点掀翻，并且把它“踩”在脚下。只有这样才能体现所谓“史诗级牛市”的气魄。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>为什么会出现史诗级牛市？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们在做各个国家股市研究时发现，进入工业化序列的国家，都经历过长期震荡，并且震荡后出现一路向上的走势。比如韩国股市和日本股市，德国、法国、美国这些进入工业化序列的国家也出现类似情况。</p><p>我结合罗斯托工业化进程和达里奥国家生命周期，对此进行解读，能够解释这个现象。基本上在工业化起飞前和起飞阶段，股市都会经历长周期震荡，但是进入工业化成熟阶段，普遍出现一波股市的连续上涨，并且这种上涨可以称之为史诗级，因为在历史上观测到呈现高点不断突破、低点不断抬高，并且抬高的幅度相当大的过程，而且是在短短几年内。</p><p>像韩国股市，就在短短八年内完成了四倍到五倍的上涨。美国在1932年完成工业化成熟，实际上我们看到它的股市上涨，是从1932年一直到现在，将近100年的牛市。当然了，中间的每一次震荡周期时间也比较长，但总体是连续向上的。这是我们当时做完研究后的结论。</p><p>虽然现在看，“史诗级牛市将至”这样的话术，大家可能觉得有一些夸张。但有时候可能是因为我们身处在这一过程中，所以并不能完全看清，“不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”。只有经历过，我们回头看才会发现，原来的确是这样。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4481137aa64542897feba50f30e759\" alt=\"\"/><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>史诗级牛市能让所有人赚到钱吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>美国股市从81年一直涨到现在，如果大家都能在股市中赚到钱，那美国的个人投资者应该很有钱。通过股票能够赚钱的人数是很少的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>如果想成为受益的少数群体，现在应该怎么做？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>市场一般经历四个阶段，坚决不信；怀疑相信、等待回调；市场大涨看不懂市场；然后完全相信真的接盘。往往大家亏钱的原因，是低点低仓位，高点高仓位，浮盈加仓一把亏光。想要在这个市场赚到钱，个人投资者要么早信，要么就干脆不信。还要敢于和大众媒体以及市场作对，跌得多的时候敢加仓，涨得多的时候忌贪婪，在顶部的时候全部减仓。怎么判断是否到顶，就要依靠个人认知了。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>有观点认为股市大涨能够提振消费，您怎么看？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>这是毋庸置疑的。股市一旦上涨，虚拟进账增加，会给人带来很强烈的财富幻觉。只要当天指数涨了3%，周围各个饭店肯定是爆满，大家晚上一定想要寻开心，花钱一定会大手大脚。但是这给未来留下不好的伏笔，只要自己炒股票，后续还会亏回去，大手大脚的习惯养成了，在亏回去的时候很难戒掉。股票市场不可能带着所有人发家致富，有足够高的认知和足够的人性把握，才能在这里赚到、留住。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>“中国股市不可能跌多狠”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>能否预测一下中国股市走势？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国资金呈现多方面的剩余，金融资本剩余、产业资本剩余、民间自由资本剩余。如此庞大的剩余资金没有出处，必然会找到一个大家熟知估值比较低的场所宣泄。目前来看，中国的股市是唯一比较符合要求的，它承载量足够大。如果这是必然，市场不可能跌多狠，也就不是下跌的时候无限悲观，上涨的时候无限乐观，注定是有底和顶。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>“牛短熊长”还会重演吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们觉得还会出现。之所以出现这种情况，是因为资金筹码之间产生的博弈，并不是来自基本面的股市上涨和下跌，而是非常强大的情绪冲击。所谓的大家说的“牛短熊长”，是每一个参与股市投资和基金投资的人造就的。大家的钱全涌过来，一定会把股市打成泡沫，然后再回归。存量资本的几次洗刷之后，我们才有可能迎来牛长熊短的过程。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减持态势。如何看待近期外资投资境内股票总体向好？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国是全世界生活最为安全、便利的国家，也是最大经济体之一，并且还有如此便宜的股市，一定会受到国际资本的追捧，只是时间节奏的问题。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>“巴菲特‘身体很诚实’，实际上就是看空美国”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：如何看待美国金融市场近期动态？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>拘泥于越小的事件，得出的结论越充满偶然性，因此应该从全局角度去观察。对目前的美国而言，降息不降息都是小问题，核心是美国每年12000亿的财政亏空。对任何一个国家而言，巨额财政赤字、高负债都是极其危险的信号。美国财政亏空，本可以通过像罗斯福新政一样对富人进行征税，但是现在却反其道而行之。美国必须要重新有一个像罗斯福一样有魄力、有能力、有担当的领导扭转大局，否则只能再去吞下QE（量化宽松）这颗剧毒药丸。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾经表示巴菲特并不是不看好黄金，而是之前黄金涨价下不去手。面对如今黄金的涨势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>如何操作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>巴菲特是全球资管圈的一个例外，全球只有一个巴菲特。巴菲特其实很“诚实”，</p><p>他实际上是在唱空美国。他目前在美国的持仓和各种情况，等同于在1968年关掉他自己的私募基金，并且买了大量的日本股市股票，那几个商社从盈利能力和地位看，相当于日本国企。日本大型国企盈利稳定、估值便宜，本身就是在对冲美元贬值的风险。由于他存在的地位和意义比较特殊，他不能说真实看空美国的想法，但是实质他做的行为就是如此。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>美股出现高位回落的可能性如何？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>很难判断什么时候到顶或什么时间回落，但我们认为这个位置绝对不能下注。2022年以后美国股市上涨过的所有东西都不值得下注。因为他们在用某一种叙事支撑这种高估值。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>“发明者吃螃蟹的叙事是错的，是美国用来解释<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：怎么理解您说的“叙事支撑美股高估值”？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>任何新事物的发明者，最后只能占据这个市场的5%，甚至不到5%的市场空间和利润。不是谁发明谁最后吃螃蟹，而是后续谁的效仿能力强。这种发明者胜出的叙事方式，是美国强加给我们的，是他们用来解释英伟达为什么这么强的一个叙事方式。但我可以明确说，在商业史上，在科技史上，这个叙事方式是错的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>英伟达成为全球首家市值突破4万亿美元的上市公司。你怎么看待英伟达？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>从这家公司市值36000亿的时候，我就一直在讲，英伟达很好很不错，但是它真的有那么好吗？它只是一家软件设计类的企业，商业模式上，消费和收入端存在一次性支出的嫌疑。如果我们理解为英伟达将保持永久性的领先，我想是错误的。当这个预期、这个叙事过程进行反杀的话，高估值泡沫会怎么样？2000年的互联网泡沫会出现什么？顶部时期去讲逻辑，是投资里面最可怕的事情，就会变成所谓真信的，真的要接盘。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>特朗普称美国是人工智能竞赛的发起国，并且抛出新的AI发展计划，企图维持美国在关键技术领域对中国的优势。如何看待他们的动作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>在AI还没有火起来的时候，几年以前李开复就已经对这个问题看的很清楚了。AI的核心是海量的数据，而不是仅仅依靠算力跟算法。哪里有海量的数据呢？在网络信息层面来说，中国才有这种海量的数据。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>之前您谈到下一轮技术革命时表示，目前看不出有新的技术能够带来生产效率的大幅提升，AI还不算。怎么理解您这个观点？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>能够掀起新一轮工业革命的东西，一定是能够提高生产效率，而且这种提高不是20%至30%，应该几何级数的提高，就像当年的蒸汽机推动棉纺织一样。所有的工业化生产物品，价格出现系统性的下移，新的工厂能够把价格砍掉40%至50%。那么目前我们去看 AI，还没有案例和数据能够证明AI大幅提升工业化部门生产效率。</p><p>我们只能说可以预期AI未来会实现在工业部门的应用，但目前还不能完全确定。以现在的Deepseek为例，我们承认它为搜索资料带来很多便利，但是它不是一个很好的下结论的工具，可以说现在还是“人云亦云”的阶段。多数人怎么说，它就怎么答复用户，还不能形成独立判断。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399300":"沪深300","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8lYItRIkIUe","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2556875443","content_text":"“即将到来的A股史诗级牛市会掀翻6124高点，并且把这一历史峰值‘踩’在脚下。”信汇泉总经理孙加滢近日在与凤凰网财经对话时，如此预测。今年6月底以来，A股表现持续强势，站上3600点的高位。在这一时间点上，投资者对牛市的期待也越来越高。孙加滢表示，现在已经来到史诗级牛市的起点。某种程度上，史诗级牛市的出现是一种必然——根据他的研究，全球进入工业化序列的国家，在进入工业化成熟阶段后，普遍出现股市的连续上涨，并且上涨幅度将“相当大”。牛市何时到来？如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？以下为对话实录，在不改变原意的基础上有删减。01“炒股挣的钱很难留住”凤凰网财经：您曾表示现在是史诗级牛市的起点，牛市何时到来？能“牛”到什么程度？孙加滢：目前大概率进入整体向上的周期，时间节点很难具体预测，只能说是一步步看宏观情况。我们偏向于本轮牛市很难超过2007年的牛市，因为那波是从998的低点涨到了6124，相当于六倍上涨。如果（本轮）从2600开始算起，以涨幅六倍计算，指数将升至15000点，这是让人很难想象的。但是这轮牛市的上涨空间和幅度，我们还是偏向会将6124这个高点掀翻，并且把它“踩”在脚下。只有这样才能体现所谓“史诗级牛市”的气魄。凤凰网财经：为什么会出现史诗级牛市？孙加滢：我们在做各个国家股市研究时发现，进入工业化序列的国家，都经历过长期震荡，并且震荡后出现一路向上的走势。比如韩国股市和日本股市，德国、法国、美国这些进入工业化序列的国家也出现类似情况。我结合罗斯托工业化进程和达里奥国家生命周期，对此进行解读，能够解释这个现象。基本上在工业化起飞前和起飞阶段，股市都会经历长周期震荡，但是进入工业化成熟阶段，普遍出现一波股市的连续上涨，并且这种上涨可以称之为史诗级，因为在历史上观测到呈现高点不断突破、低点不断抬高，并且抬高的幅度相当大的过程，而且是在短短几年内。像韩国股市，就在短短八年内完成了四倍到五倍的上涨。美国在1932年完成工业化成熟，实际上我们看到它的股市上涨，是从1932年一直到现在，将近100年的牛市。当然了，中间的每一次震荡周期时间也比较长，但总体是连续向上的。这是我们当时做完研究后的结论。虽然现在看，“史诗级牛市将至”这样的话术，大家可能觉得有一些夸张。但有时候可能是因为我们身处在这一过程中，所以并不能完全看清，“不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”。只有经历过，我们回头看才会发现，原来的确是这样。凤凰网财经：史诗级牛市能让所有人赚到钱吗？孙加滢：美国股市从81年一直涨到现在，如果大家都能在股市中赚到钱，那美国的个人投资者应该很有钱。通过股票能够赚钱的人数是很少的。凤凰网财经：如果想成为受益的少数群体，现在应该怎么做？孙加滢：市场一般经历四个阶段，坚决不信；怀疑相信、等待回调；市场大涨看不懂市场；然后完全相信真的接盘。往往大家亏钱的原因，是低点低仓位，高点高仓位，浮盈加仓一把亏光。想要在这个市场赚到钱，个人投资者要么早信，要么就干脆不信。还要敢于和大众媒体以及市场作对，跌得多的时候敢加仓，涨得多的时候忌贪婪，在顶部的时候全部减仓。怎么判断是否到顶，就要依靠个人认知了。凤凰网财经：有观点认为股市大涨能够提振消费，您怎么看？孙加滢：这是毋庸置疑的。股市一旦上涨，虚拟进账增加，会给人带来很强烈的财富幻觉。只要当天指数涨了3%，周围各个饭店肯定是爆满，大家晚上一定想要寻开心，花钱一定会大手大脚。但是这给未来留下不好的伏笔，只要自己炒股票，后续还会亏回去，大手大脚的习惯养成了，在亏回去的时候很难戒掉。股票市场不可能带着所有人发家致富，有足够高的认知和足够的人性把握，才能在这里赚到、留住。02“中国股市不可能跌多狠”凤凰网财经：能否预测一下中国股市走势？孙加滢：中国资金呈现多方面的剩余，金融资本剩余、产业资本剩余、民间自由资本剩余。如此庞大的剩余资金没有出处，必然会找到一个大家熟知估值比较低的场所宣泄。目前来看，中国的股市是唯一比较符合要求的，它承载量足够大。如果这是必然，市场不可能跌多狠，也就不是下跌的时候无限悲观，上涨的时候无限乐观，注定是有底和顶。凤凰网财经：“牛短熊长”还会重演吗？孙加滢：我们觉得还会出现。之所以出现这种情况，是因为资金筹码之间产生的博弈，并不是来自基本面的股市上涨和下跌，而是非常强大的情绪冲击。所谓的大家说的“牛短熊长”，是每一个参与股市投资和基金投资的人造就的。大家的钱全涌过来，一定会把股市打成泡沫，然后再回归。存量资本的几次洗刷之后，我们才有可能迎来牛长熊短的过程。凤凰网财经：上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减持态势。如何看待近期外资投资境内股票总体向好？孙加滢：中国是全世界生活最为安全、便利的国家，也是最大经济体之一，并且还有如此便宜的股市，一定会受到国际资本的追捧，只是时间节奏的问题。03“巴菲特‘身体很诚实’，实际上就是看空美国”凤凰网财经：如何看待美国金融市场近期动态？孙加滢：拘泥于越小的事件，得出的结论越充满偶然性，因此应该从全局角度去观察。对目前的美国而言，降息不降息都是小问题，核心是美国每年12000亿的财政亏空。对任何一个国家而言，巨额财政赤字、高负债都是极其危险的信号。美国财政亏空，本可以通过像罗斯福新政一样对富人进行征税，但是现在却反其道而行之。美国必须要重新有一个像罗斯福一样有魄力、有能力、有担当的领导扭转大局，否则只能再去吞下QE（量化宽松）这颗剧毒药丸。凤凰网财经：您曾经表示巴菲特并不是不看好黄金，而是之前黄金涨价下不去手。面对如今黄金的涨势，伯克希尔如何操作？孙加滢：巴菲特是全球资管圈的一个例外，全球只有一个巴菲特。巴菲特其实很“诚实”，他实际上是在唱空美国。他目前在美国的持仓和各种情况，等同于在1968年关掉他自己的私募基金，并且买了大量的日本股市股票，那几个商社从盈利能力和地位看，相当于日本国企。日本大型国企盈利稳定、估值便宜，本身就是在对冲美元贬值的风险。由于他存在的地位和意义比较特殊，他不能说真实看空美国的想法，但是实质他做的行为就是如此。凤凰网财经：美股出现高位回落的可能性如何？孙加滢：很难判断什么时候到顶或什么时间回落，但我们认为这个位置绝对不能下注。2022年以后美国股市上涨过的所有东西都不值得下注。因为他们在用某一种叙事支撑这种高估值。04“发明者吃螃蟹的叙事是错的，是美国用来解释英伟达的”凤凰网财经：怎么理解您说的“叙事支撑美股高估值”？孙加滢：任何新事物的发明者，最后只能占据这个市场的5%，甚至不到5%的市场空间和利润。不是谁发明谁最后吃螃蟹，而是后续谁的效仿能力强。这种发明者胜出的叙事方式，是美国强加给我们的，是他们用来解释英伟达为什么这么强的一个叙事方式。但我可以明确说，在商业史上，在科技史上，这个叙事方式是错的。凤凰网财经：英伟达成为全球首家市值突破4万亿美元的上市公司。你怎么看待英伟达？孙加滢：从这家公司市值36000亿的时候，我就一直在讲，英伟达很好很不错，但是它真的有那么好吗？它只是一家软件设计类的企业，商业模式上，消费和收入端存在一次性支出的嫌疑。如果我们理解为英伟达将保持永久性的领先，我想是错误的。当这个预期、这个叙事过程进行反杀的话，高估值泡沫会怎么样？2000年的互联网泡沫会出现什么？顶部时期去讲逻辑，是投资里面最可怕的事情，就会变成所谓真信的，真的要接盘。凤凰网财经：特朗普称美国是人工智能竞赛的发起国，并且抛出新的AI发展计划，企图维持美国在关键技术领域对中国的优势。如何看待他们的动作？孙加滢：在AI还没有火起来的时候，几年以前李开复就已经对这个问题看的很清楚了。AI的核心是海量的数据，而不是仅仅依靠算力跟算法。哪里有海量的数据呢？在网络信息层面来说，中国才有这种海量的数据。凤凰网财经：之前您谈到下一轮技术革命时表示，目前看不出有新的技术能够带来生产效率的大幅提升，AI还不算。怎么理解您这个观点？孙加滢：能够掀起新一轮工业革命的东西，一定是能够提高生产效率，而且这种提高不是20%至30%，应该几何级数的提高，就像当年的蒸汽机推动棉纺织一样。所有的工业化生产物品，价格出现系统性的下移，新的工厂能够把价格砍掉40%至50%。那么目前我们去看 AI，还没有案例和数据能够证明AI大幅提升工业化部门生产效率。我们只能说可以预期AI未来会实现在工业部门的应用，但目前还不能完全确定。以现在的Deepseek为例，我们承认它为搜索资料带来很多便利，但是它不是一个很好的下结论的工具，可以说现在还是“人云亦云”的阶段。多数人怎么说，它就怎么答复用户，还不能形成独立判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399300":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464031623004512,"gmtCreate":1754314404305,"gmtModify":1754314405518,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">$诺和诺德(NVO)$&nbsp;</a> 其实想入点，不过过2天又是财报了怕暴雷，算了不赌了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">$诺和诺德(NVO)$&nbsp;</a> 其实想入点，不过过2天又是财报了怕暴雷，算了不赌了","text":"$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 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过来捞一些弟兄们，可以适量投点资金到做空中国上。中国关税反制下，贸易战升级，实在看不到多大概率港股会涨。 当然我买的也不多，但真的是好久没看看到账户金额增加了[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc5989c854d799fdccbe2a0c1670b4","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/421774327816624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","name":"无情的交易机器","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450"},"content":"我重仓了。","text":"我重仓了。","html":"我重仓了。"},{"author":{"id":"3461586073682313","authorId":"3461586073682313","name":"Leader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5c2573e1e23bea3da9040a94847c190b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3461586073682313","authorIdStr":"3461586073682313"},"content":"还是阿祖有头脑","text":"还是阿祖有头脑","html":"还是阿祖有头脑"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":418245502849256,"gmtCreate":1743151798404,"gmtModify":1743151799979,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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拿几天就卖掉，这种中间位置的蝇头小利的不想搞了，真的太费心力，影响心情，挣也挣不了多少[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/418245502849256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461586073682313","authorId":"3461586073682313","name":"Leader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5c2573e1e23bea3da9040a94847c190b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3461586073682313","authorIdStr":"3461586073682313"},"content":"是吧，阿祖，我就说蝇头小利，别去跟他们争，不值当，咱们是干大事的人，要有格局[开心]","text":"是吧，阿祖，我就说蝇头小利，别去跟他们争，不值当，咱们是干大事的人，要有格局[开心]","html":"是吧，阿祖，我就说蝇头小利，别去跟他们争，不值当，咱们是干大事的人，要有格局[开心]"},{"author":{"id":"3503048405086936","authorId":"3503048405086936","name":"能钱多多","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60810b0e00e3f652f39e799cbbe35aff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3503048405086936","authorIdStr":"3503048405086936"},"content":"现在震荡，28号该又是高开盘中回落，顺势在建仓也不晚！","text":"现在震荡，28号该又是高开盘中回落，顺势在建仓也不晚！","html":"现在震荡，28号该又是高开盘中回落，顺势在建仓也不晚！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":435444736844464,"gmtCreate":1747318894903,"gmtModify":1747366072085,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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是时间，一个字等，睡觉💤[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc830d73bd2161288a0878a50a5e73e","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/435444736844464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551437355244169","authorId":"3551437355244169","name":"心态一个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec02038e72190631add6bc5413f88b2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3551437355244169","authorIdStr":"3551437355244169"},"content":"买到人都麻了，450开始建仓的","text":"买到人都麻了，450开始建仓的","html":"买到人都麻了，450开始建仓的"},{"author":{"id":"4197971637444492","authorId":"4197971637444492","name":"紫气东来叶","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4197971637444492","authorIdStr":"4197971637444492"},"content":"不见底，抄不完， 420建仓到现在 [笑哭]","text":"不见底，抄不完， 420建仓到现在 [笑哭]","html":"不见底，抄不完， 420建仓到现在 [笑哭]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382507784126744,"gmtCreate":1734416755984,"gmtModify":1734417413536,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 都是幻觉，吓不倒我！！！TSLA做多从未得手，做空从未失手[邪恶]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 都是幻觉，吓不倒我！！！TSLA做多从未得手，做空从未失手[邪恶]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 都是幻觉，吓不倒我！！！TSLA做多从未得手，做空从未失手[邪恶]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02acc4ef4dd9c10a1b867ef6c5bac67","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382507784126744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4186320050829842","authorId":"4186320050829842","name":"柴房战神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1b39adb2e2cc51d46292c639c392a5a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4186320050829842","authorIdStr":"4186320050829842"},"content":"收手吧魔鬼筋肉人，外面全是陈Sir [开心] [开心]","text":"收手吧魔鬼筋肉人，外面全是陈Sir [开心] [开心]","html":"收手吧魔鬼筋肉人，外面全是陈Sir [开心] 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[捂脸]","text":"我也是20年入市，买蔚来买小米买老虎，从入金7万人民币涨到了21万人民币，结果21年初没过多久就一夜回到解放前，对当时第一炒股的我幼小的心灵造成了巨大伤害，导致后来我好几年都没碰股票 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是时候改变策略了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c1a36f2d636b35dea21965104f317a","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/417789588545656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4203211426829372","authorId":"4203211426829372","name":"qkquwwety","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4203211426829372","authorIdStr":"4203211426829372"},"content":"你头铁，科技股泡沫还做多 [开心]","text":"你头铁，科技股泡沫还做多 [开心]","html":"你头铁，科技股泡沫还做多 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[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17612e0aca8cec88c9abe7268fc39f4c","width":"898","height":"1475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314204268372208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3516941302909869","authorId":"3516941302909869","name":"HeyD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/941365b118ad9052501d10f4bc74473b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3516941302909869","authorIdStr":"3516941302909869"},"content":"这种股票至少需要预留一倍空间才开始做空吧，至少65-75","text":"这种股票至少需要预留一倍空间才开始做空吧，至少65-75","html":"这种股票至少需要预留一倍空间才开始做空吧，至少65-75"},{"author":{"id":"3551875040452428","authorId":"3551875040452428","name":"jackgua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae4723ad8b2bed86f60c17ebfc76cda","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551875040452428","authorIdStr":"3551875040452428"},"content":"我31的做空42抛完了66重新做空 [笑哭] [捂脸]","text":"我31的做空42抛完了66重新做空 [笑哭] [捂脸]","html":"我31的做空42抛完了66重新做空 [笑哭] [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":417608175612560,"gmtCreate":1742954293405,"gmtModify":1742954296156,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 200.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 200.0 PUT$ </a> 空你几哇","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 200.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 200.0 PUT$ </a> 空你几哇","text":"$TSLA 20250516 200.0 PUT$ 空你几哇","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60646449bee3dc5bb389d7172b9d4e03","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/417608175612560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"275819275022896","authorId":"275819275022896","name":"约翰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1bbc78ee49142cbe14dec72f0436a6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"275819275022896","authorIdStr":"275819275022896"},"content":"你现在做空？我预感大事来袭，到时候飞过350是很快的事情。","text":"你现在做空？我预感大事来袭，到时候飞过350是很快的事情。","html":"你现在做空？我预感大事来袭，到时候飞过350是很快的事情。"},{"author":{"id":"4203211426829372","authorId":"4203211426829372","name":"qkquwwety","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4203211426829372","authorIdStr":"4203211426829372"},"content":"没事，我也空了特斯拉，拿住就好。","text":"没事，我也空了特斯拉，拿住就好。","html":"没事，我也空了特斯拉，拿住就好。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409976826536520,"gmtCreate":1741101799647,"gmtModify":1741101849013,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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19:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"季度业绩前瞻 | 小米集团-W：汽车业务盈利，预测Q4一致预期营收694.45~1553.03亿元，","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2589891133","media":"朝阳永续","summary":"智能汽车 等创新业务收入增长显著，达到290亿元，毛利率25.5%。汽车业务首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元，但毛利率受SU7ultra交付量减少影响环比下降。手机业务高端化战略成效显著，但毛利率受存储涨价影响环比下滑。","content":"<html><body><article><p>1.  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>集团 -W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？</p><p>截至2025年12月05日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：</p><p>预测公司Q4一致预期<span>营业收入</span>694.45~1553.03亿元，同比变动-36.3%~42.5%；</p><p>预测公司Q4一致预期<span>净利润</span>-106.39~117.92亿元，同比变动-218.3%~31.1%；</p><p>预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润67.13~133.96亿元，同比变动-19.3%~61.1%。</p><p>关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251205192054803d206xfpdou1v30n\"/><p>2.  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>集团 -W最新卖方观点</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">华安证券</a> 认为： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>集团 -W在2025年第三季度的业绩表现稳健，总收入达到1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，毛利率提升至22.9%，经调整净利润为113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务收入460亿元，毛利率11.1%，IoT业务收入276亿元，毛利率23.9%， 互联网 业务收入94亿元，毛利率76.9%。 智能汽车 等创新业务收入增长显著，达到290亿元，毛利率25.5%。汽车业务首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元，但毛利率受SU7ultra交付量减少影响环比下降。手机业务高端化战略成效显著，但毛利率受存储涨价影响环比下滑。AIoT业务收入增速因国补退坡而收窄。</p><p>分业务来说：</p><p>1)智能汽车业务：三季度收入290亿元，同比增长199.2%，首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元。</p><p>2)手机业务：Q3出货量4330万台，市占率13.6%，中国大陆地区4000-6000元价位段市占率达18.9%，小米17系列首月销量同比上一代增长近30%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002670\">国盛证券</a> 认为： 小米集团 -W在2025Q3季度实现收入1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，经调整净利润约113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务全球出货量达4330万台，高端化战略显著，大陆地区高端手机销量占比24.1%。IoT业务中，小米平板、TWS耳机和可穿戴腕带设备出货量领先，AIoT平台连接设备数突破10亿台。汽车及AI创新业务首次实现单季度经营盈利，交付量约10.9万台。尽管面临短期行业扰动， 小米集团 凭借高端化和全生态战略，展现出长期竞争力。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>季度业绩前瞻 | 小米集团-W：汽车业务盈利，预测Q4一致预期营收694.45~1553.03亿元，</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n季度业绩前瞻 | 小米集团-W：汽车业务盈利，预测Q4一致预期营收694.45~1553.03亿元，\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-05 19:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251205192057952cb8b4&s=b><strong>朝阳永续</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1.  小米集团 -W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2025年12月05日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入694.45~1553.03亿元，同比变动-36.3%~42.5%；预测公司Q4一致预期净利润-106.39~117.92亿元，同比变动-218.3%~31.1%；预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润67.13~133.96亿元，同比变动-19.3%~61.1%。关注后续...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251205192057952cb8b4&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251205192057952cb8b4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2589891133","content_text":"1.  小米集团 -W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2025年12月05日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入694.45~1553.03亿元，同比变动-36.3%~42.5%；预测公司Q4一致预期净利润-106.39~117.92亿元，同比变动-218.3%~31.1%；预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润67.13~133.96亿元，同比变动-19.3%~61.1%。关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。2.  小米集团 -W最新卖方观点华安证券 认为： 小米集团 -W在2025年第三季度的业绩表现稳健，总收入达到1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，毛利率提升至22.9%，经调整净利润为113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务收入460亿元，毛利率11.1%，IoT业务收入276亿元，毛利率23.9%， 互联网 业务收入94亿元，毛利率76.9%。 智能汽车 等创新业务收入增长显著，达到290亿元，毛利率25.5%。汽车业务首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元，但毛利率受SU7ultra交付量减少影响环比下降。手机业务高端化战略成效显著，但毛利率受存储涨价影响环比下滑。AIoT业务收入增速因国补退坡而收窄。分业务来说：1)智能汽车业务：三季度收入290亿元，同比增长199.2%，首次实现单季度盈利，经营利润7亿元。2)手机业务：Q3出货量4330万台，市占率13.6%，中国大陆地区4000-6000元价位段市占率达18.9%，小米17系列首月销量同比上一代增长近30%。国盛证券 认为： 小米集团 -W在2025Q3季度实现收入1131亿元，同比增长22.3%，经调整净利润约113亿元，同比增长80.9%。手机业务全球出货量达4330万台，高端化战略显著，大陆地区高端手机销量占比24.1%。IoT业务中，小米平板、TWS耳机和可穿戴腕带设备出货量领先，AIoT平台连接设备数突破10亿台。汽车及AI创新业务首次实现单季度经营盈利，交付量约10.9万台。尽管面临短期行业扰动， 小米集团 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