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2021-04-27

looking forward to an eventful week!

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2021-06-11

As with any stock, you have to be careful!

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2021-05-02

could be a market correction...

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2021-05-25

[Gosh]

"The Fed Has Lost Control" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告2022年将出现恶性通胀</blockquote>

2021-05-20

invest carefully!

U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>

2021-05-17

yes, market corrections are bound to happen!

3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不用担心股市崩盘的3个理由</blockquote>

2021-05-10

best to remain cautious...

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2021-05-19

will take quite a while for this industry to recover...

Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的17周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>

2021-06-09

With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...

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2021-10-22

as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!

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2021-04-26

exciting week ahead!

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2021-03-20

Interesting read!

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2021-04-19

looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!

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2021-03-24

interesting read!

Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>

2021-04-06

invest carefully!

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>

2021-03-27

interesting read!

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2021-03-25

interesting read!

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2021-03-21

good read

Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>

2021-04-13

with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba, it’s best to be cautious...

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2021-03-24

interesting read!

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08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告2022年将出现恶性通胀</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145456924","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into","content":"<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com创始人、经济学家John Williams表示<b>美联储将自己逼入了如此困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这可以归结为“通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止印刷大量货币用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性进入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>这个系统需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比你已经看到的更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要保持银行系统的运转。他们希望保持经济的运转。在这些困难时期，所有这些都需要大量的流动性流入。”<b>那么，选择是通胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说，“这是一个选择，而且<b>我认为我们将会有两者的结合。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终会走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，我们现在又回来了。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上同比增长了75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。正常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。爆炸式的货币供应将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率——还没有，但你正在达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到10%的范围同比.....<b>美联储已经失去了对通胀的控制。</b>“请记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为10%时，约翰·威廉姆斯说，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为10%时，我的数字将升至15%左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com的通胀率超过11%。</b>如果按照1980年之前的方式计算，当时政府开始使用会计噱头让通货膨胀看起来低于实际情况。Shadowstats.com的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报道的“官方”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经出现的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来以物易物……随着时间的推移，实物黄金和白银是保护你购买力的最佳方式。”<b>对于大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀何时会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在2022年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告2022年将出现恶性通胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告2022年将出现恶性通胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-25 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com创始人、经济学家John Williams表示<b>美联储将自己逼入了如此困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这可以归结为“通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止印刷大量货币用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性进入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>这个系统需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比你已经看到的更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要保持银行系统的运转。他们希望保持经济的运转。在这些困难时期，所有这些都需要大量的流动性流入。”<b>那么，选择是通胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说，“这是一个选择，而且<b>我认为我们将会有两者的结合。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终会走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，我们现在又回来了。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上同比增长了75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。正常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。爆炸式的货币供应将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率——还没有，但你正在达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到10%的范围同比.....<b>美联储已经失去了对通胀的控制。</b>“请记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为10%时，约翰·威廉姆斯说，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为10%时，我的数字将升至15%左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com的通胀率超过11%。</b>如果按照1980年之前的方式计算，当时政府开始使用会计噱头让通货膨胀看起来低于实际情况。Shadowstats.com的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报道的“官方”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经出现的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来以物易物……随着时间的推移，实物黄金和白银是保护你购买力的最佳方式。”<b>对于大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀何时会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在2022年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145456924","content_text":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight cornerwith the economy it really has only two choices.Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”\nWhat would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?  Williams explains,\n\n “\n You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function. Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.  In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.  It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.  The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.  They want to keep the economy afloat.  All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”\n\nSo, is the choice inflation or implosion?Williams says, “That’s the choice, andI think we are going to have a combination of both of them...\"\n\n \"\n   I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse. It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.  You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.  This is unprecedented.  Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.  The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.  I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .\n The Fed has lost control of inflation.”\n\nAnd remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.  My number rides on top of their number.”\nRight now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.  The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.\nWilliams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.  Williams says,\n\n “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”\n Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.  Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”\n\nWhen will the worst inflation be hitting America?  Williams predicts,\n\n“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197451850,"gmtCreate":1621481036370,"gmtModify":1634188790605,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"invest carefully!","listText":"invest carefully!","text":"invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197451850","repostId":"1129952039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129952039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621466041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129952039?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-20 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129952039","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>在会议纪要发布后，标普500加剧了损失，一些美联储政策制定者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，在即将举行的会议上“在某个时候”开始讨论美联储每月购买国债的规模将变得适当，这是一项旨在保持长期利率较低的政策。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>比尔·诺西(Bill Northey)表示：“参与者以及美联储工作人员仍然认为，这些开始变得明显的通胀压力在他们看来仍将是暂时的，并且可能会随着我们过渡到2022年而消退。”明尼阿波利斯合众银行财富管理公司高级投资总监。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证价格上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了人们的担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大主要股指在早盘大幅低开后均触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给其带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌164.62点，跌幅0.48%，至33,896.04点；标普500下跌12.15点，跌幅0.29%，至4,115.68点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.90点，跌幅0.03%，至13,299.74点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为107亿股，而过去20个交易日全交易日平均成交量为106亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>在中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了30%和45%，但在它们的两个最大支持者——特斯拉公司首席执行官Elon Musk和Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood——之后，它们在下午交易中大幅止住了跌幅。重申了对比特币的支持。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商Coinbase Global、矿商Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.15比1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下3个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高，49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿件包裹市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS超过预期0.04美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司L Brands实现季度盈利</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司Synopsys超额完成第二财季目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 07:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>在会议纪要发布后，标普500加剧了损失，一些美联储政策制定者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，在即将举行的会议上“在某个时候”开始讨论美联储每月购买国债的规模将变得适当，这是一项旨在保持长期利率较低的政策。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>比尔·诺西(Bill Northey)表示：“参与者以及美联储工作人员仍然认为，这些开始变得明显的通胀压力在他们看来仍将是暂时的，并且可能会随着我们过渡到2022年而消退。”明尼阿波利斯合众银行财富管理公司高级投资总监。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证价格上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了人们的担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大主要股指在早盘大幅低开后均触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给其带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌164.62点，跌幅0.48%，至33,896.04点；标普500下跌12.15点，跌幅0.29%，至4,115.68点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.90点，跌幅0.03%，至13,299.74点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为107亿股，而过去20个交易日全交易日平均成交量为106亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>在中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了30%和45%，但在它们的两个最大支持者——特斯拉公司首席执行官Elon Musk和Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood——之后，它们在下午交易中大幅止住了跌幅。重申了对比特币的支持。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商Coinbase Global、矿商Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.15比1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下3个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高，49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿件包裹市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS超过预期0.04美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司L Brands实现季度盈利</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司Synopsys超额完成第二财季目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129952039","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.The S&P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.Financial Report4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenueVictoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales riseCisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlookChip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194415420,"gmtCreate":1621392426860,"gmtModify":1634189517103,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","listText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","text":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194415420","repostId":"1178395449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178395449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621385285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178395449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的17周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178395449","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and co","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——半导体行业的短缺已经对汽车制造商和消费电子公司造成了沉重打击，现在正变得更加严重，使全球经济从冠状病毒大流行中复苏变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据Susquehanna Financial Group的研究，芯片交货时间，即订购芯片和提货之间的差距，在4月份增加到17周，表明用户越来越迫切地希望获得供应。这是该公司自2017年开始跟踪数据以来等待时间最长的一次。</blockquote></p><p> “All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”</p><p><blockquote>Susquehanna分析师Chris Rolland在周二的一份报告中写道：“所有主要产品类别都大幅增长。”他引用了电源管理和模拟芯片交付周期等。“这是自我们开始跟踪数据以来最大的增幅之一。”</blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.</p><p><blockquote>芯片短缺正在波及一个又一个行业，导致公司无法将产品从汽车运输到游戏机和冰箱。由于福特汽车公司、通用汽车公司和其他公司因缺乏必要零部件而不得不闲置工厂，目前预计汽车制造商今年的销售额将损失1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.</p><p><blockquote>该行业及其客户将交货时间视为供需平衡的指标。缺口的拉长表明半导体买家更愿意致力于未来的供应，以避免再次出现短缺。分析师将这些数字视为囤积的先兆，囤积可能导致库存积累过多和订单突然下降。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兰写道：“交货时间的延长往往会迫使客户采取‘不良行为’，包括库存积累、安全库存建设和重复订购。”“这些趋势可能在早期阶段刺激了半导体行业的出货量超过了真实的客户需求。”</blockquote></p><p> The situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>由于芯片制造的关键地点台湾冠状病毒病例死灰复燃，情况变得更加复杂。该国关闭了学校，限制了社交聚会，并关闭了许多成人娱乐场所、博物馆和公共设施。在企业和工厂运营的同时，政府可能不得不考虑更广泛的限制。</blockquote></p><p> The country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.</p><p><blockquote>该国是世界上最先进的芯片制造商台积电公司的所在地，其众多客户中包括苹果公司和高通公司。本地制造商还生产不那么迷人但同样重要的芯片，例如显示驱动IC，这些芯片一直是全球生产的一个特别痛苦的瓶颈。</blockquote></p><p> The current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，目前17周的水平较魅兰此前所说的“危险区”顶部的16周水平有所攀升，标志着连续第四个月“大幅”扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Lead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>4月份电源管理芯片等一些产品的交付周期较上月延长了多达四周。他写道，工业微控制器的订单交付周期延长了三周，这是魅兰自2017年开始跟踪这些数字以来出现的最大幅度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的17周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的17周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-19 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——半导体行业的短缺已经对汽车制造商和消费电子公司造成了沉重打击，现在正变得更加严重，使全球经济从冠状病毒大流行中复苏变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据Susquehanna Financial Group的研究，芯片交货时间，即订购芯片和提货之间的差距，在4月份增加到17周，表明用户越来越迫切地希望获得供应。这是该公司自2017年开始跟踪数据以来等待时间最长的一次。</blockquote></p><p> “All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”</p><p><blockquote>Susquehanna分析师Chris Rolland在周二的一份报告中写道：“所有主要产品类别都大幅增长。”他引用了电源管理和模拟芯片交付周期等。“这是自我们开始跟踪数据以来最大的增幅之一。”</blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.</p><p><blockquote>芯片短缺正在波及一个又一个行业，导致公司无法将产品从汽车运输到游戏机和冰箱。由于福特汽车公司、通用汽车公司和其他公司因缺乏必要零部件而不得不闲置工厂，目前预计汽车制造商今年的销售额将损失1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.</p><p><blockquote>该行业及其客户将交货时间视为供需平衡的指标。缺口的拉长表明半导体买家更愿意致力于未来的供应，以避免再次出现短缺。分析师将这些数字视为囤积的先兆，囤积可能导致库存积累过多和订单突然下降。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兰写道：“交货时间的延长往往会迫使客户采取‘不良行为’，包括库存积累、安全库存建设和重复订购。”“这些趋势可能在早期阶段刺激了半导体行业的出货量超过了真实的客户需求。”</blockquote></p><p> The situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>由于芯片制造的关键地点台湾冠状病毒病例死灰复燃，情况变得更加复杂。该国关闭了学校，限制了社交聚会，并关闭了许多成人娱乐场所、博物馆和公共设施。在企业和工厂运营的同时，政府可能不得不考虑更广泛的限制。</blockquote></p><p> The country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.</p><p><blockquote>该国是世界上最先进的芯片制造商台积电公司的所在地，其众多客户中包括苹果公司和高通公司。本地制造商还生产不那么迷人但同样重要的芯片，例如显示驱动IC，这些芯片一直是全球生产的一个特别痛苦的瓶颈。</blockquote></p><p> The current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，目前17周的水平较魅兰此前所说的“危险区”顶部的16周水平有所攀升，标志着连续第四个月“大幅”扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Lead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>4月份电源管理芯片等一些产品的交付周期较上月延长了多达四周。他写道，工业微控制器的订单交付周期延长了三周，这是魅兰自2017年开始跟踪这些数字以来出现的最大幅度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178395449","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\nChip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.\n“All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”\nChip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.\nThe industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.\n“Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”\nThe situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.\nThe country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.\nThe current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.\nLead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192436129,"gmtCreate":1621221278561,"gmtModify":1634193269741,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","listText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","text":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192436129","repostId":"1199537372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199537372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621220749,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199537372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不用担心股市崩盘的3个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199537372","media":"fool","summary":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number an","content":"<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>由于就业人数意外减少和通胀报告意外上升，股市在过去一周左右经历了一些艰难的日子。一点波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到历史高位的估值以及去年市场大幅下跌后的其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但2020年的崩盘，市场在大约一个月内损失了33%的价值，强化了一些宝贵的投资教训。这里有三个不用担心另一次股市崩盘的好理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，<b>标普500</b>收于3386点，到3月23日收于2257点，市场价值损失了33%。这是一个惊人的跌幅，也是美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的跌幅之一。但它也是最短的熊市之一，因为该市场在8月17日收于3,382点时恢复了全部价值。不到六个月的时间，损失就被抹去了——甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>仅仅一年多后，截至2021年5月13日，标普500在4100左右。这比2020年3月23日的低点增长了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2、买入机会大</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，而且理由很充分：当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找购买好公司的机会，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>迪斯尼</b>从2月19日到3月23日，该股暴跌近40%，跌至每股85美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股票交易如此之低时买入了迪士尼股票，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将大幅反弹。到11月，股价已回到每股140美元，回到了崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股票目前交易价格约为171美元，是2020年3月底部的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做好研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下跌时，你绝对应该将其视为机会，而不是问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3.你的投资是长期的</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外遇到一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢走开，不要做任何鲁莽的事情。对昙花一现或熊熊般的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，出现了无数次熊市，分为市场下跌20%或以上，以及更多的市场调整，下跌10%或以上。然而，标普500经历了所有的跌宕起伏，在过去30年里的平均年回报率为8%。过去10年，截至5月13日，该基准的年化回报率约为11.8%。一些股票，如迪士尼，过去10年的年化回报率约为17%，其表现远好于基准。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人心烦意乱，但如果你记住这三点，它们就不那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不用担心股市崩盘的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不用担心股市崩盘的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 11:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>由于就业人数意外减少和通胀报告意外上升，股市在过去一周左右经历了一些艰难的日子。一点波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到历史高位的估值以及去年市场大幅下跌后的其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但2020年的崩盘，市场在大约一个月内损失了33%的价值，强化了一些宝贵的投资教训。这里有三个不用担心另一次股市崩盘的好理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，<b>标普500</b>收于3386点，到3月23日收于2257点，市场价值损失了33%。这是一个惊人的跌幅，也是美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的跌幅之一。但它也是最短的熊市之一，因为该市场在8月17日收于3,382点时恢复了全部价值。不到六个月的时间，损失就被抹去了——甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>仅仅一年多后，截至2021年5月13日，标普500在4100左右。这比2020年3月23日的低点增长了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2、买入机会大</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，而且理由很充分：当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找购买好公司的机会，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>迪斯尼</b>从2月19日到3月23日，该股暴跌近40%，跌至每股85美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股票交易如此之低时买入了迪士尼股票，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将大幅反弹。到11月，股价已回到每股140美元，回到了崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股票目前交易价格约为171美元，是2020年3月底部的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做好研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下跌时，你绝对应该将其视为机会，而不是问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3.你的投资是长期的</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外遇到一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢走开，不要做任何鲁莽的事情。对昙花一现或熊熊般的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，出现了无数次熊市，分为市场下跌20%或以上，以及更多的市场调整，下跌10%或以上。然而，标普500经历了所有的跌宕起伏，在过去30年里的平均年回报率为8%。过去10年，截至5月13日，该基准的年化回报率约为11.8%。一些股票，如迪士尼，过去10年的年化回报率约为17%，其表现远好于基准。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人心烦意乱，但如果你记住这三点，它们就不那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199537372","content_text":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.1. Patience will be rewardedFrom Feb. 19, 2020, when theS&P 500closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.2. There are great buying opportunitiesThere's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --Walt Disneystock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.3. You're invested for the long termWhen bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190663785,"gmtCreate":1620616528147,"gmtModify":1634197658245,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"best to remain cautious...","listText":"best to remain cautious...","text":"best to remain cautious...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190663785","repostId":"2134860876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101490385,"gmtCreate":1619928242947,"gmtModify":1634209045009,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"could be a market correction...","listText":"could be a market correction...","text":"could be a market correction...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101490385","repostId":"1186088353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377363607,"gmtCreate":1619497435309,"gmtModify":1634212263169,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","listText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","text":"looking forward to an eventful week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":37,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377363607","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374086168,"gmtCreate":1619402249054,"gmtModify":1634273771003,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"exciting week ahead!","listText":"exciting week ahead!","text":"exciting week ahead!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374086168","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373348974,"gmtCreate":1618825420898,"gmtModify":1634290604991,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","listText":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","text":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373348974","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345370169,"gmtCreate":1618282548051,"gmtModify":1634293958803,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba,&nbsp;it’s best to be cautious...","listText":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba,&nbsp;it’s best to be cautious...","text":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba, it’s best to be cautious...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345370169","repostId":"1101127164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346796503,"gmtCreate":1618110074402,"gmtModify":1634294864125,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"seems like this stock has good potential!","listText":"seems like this stock has good potential!","text":"seems like this stock has good potential!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346796503","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346699314,"gmtCreate":1618026959038,"gmtModify":1634295152279,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hope this can address the vaccine shortage and export policy issues...","listText":"hope this can address the vaccine shortage and export policy issues...","text":"hope this can address the vaccine shortage and export policy issues...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346699314","repostId":"2126038125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346035251,"gmtCreate":1617973250773,"gmtModify":1634295448996,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"rip","listText":"rip","text":"rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346035251","repostId":"1144618735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341004759,"gmtCreate":1617759568972,"gmtModify":1634296683008,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"need to invest carefully...","listText":"need to invest carefully...","text":"need to invest carefully...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341004759","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343340345,"gmtCreate":1617681237087,"gmtModify":1634297131182,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"invest carefully!","listText":"invest carefully!","text":"invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343340345","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349300133,"gmtCreate":1617533884722,"gmtModify":1634520618079,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good to have a balanced investment plan, hope for&nbsp;the best but prepare for the worst.","listText":"good to have a balanced investment plan, hope for&nbsp;the best but prepare for the worst.","text":"good to have a balanced investment plan, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349300133","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357884644,"gmtCreate":1617258652788,"gmtModify":1634521758157,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mastercard is very active vs competitors","listText":"mastercard is very active vs competitors","text":"mastercard is very active vs competitors","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357884644","repostId":"2124201664","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":377363607,"gmtCreate":1619497435309,"gmtModify":1634212263169,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","listText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","text":"looking forward to an eventful week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":37,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377363607","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181361521,"gmtCreate":1623374574263,"gmtModify":1634034048312,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As with any stock, you have to be careful!","listText":"As with any stock, you have to be careful!","text":"As with any stock, you have to be careful!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181361521","repostId":"1194129273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101490385,"gmtCreate":1619928242947,"gmtModify":1634209045009,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"could be a market correction...","listText":"could be a market correction...","text":"could be a market correction...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101490385","repostId":"1186088353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138967473,"gmtCreate":1621905713592,"gmtModify":1634185631898,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Gosh]&nbsp;","listText":"[Gosh]&nbsp;","text":"[Gosh]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138967473","repostId":"1145456924","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145456924","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621902681,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145456924?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-25 08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告2022年将出现恶性通胀</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145456924","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into","content":"<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com创始人、经济学家John Williams表示<b>美联储将自己逼入了如此困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这可以归结为“通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止印刷大量货币用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性进入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>这个系统需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比你已经看到的更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要保持银行系统的运转。他们希望保持经济的运转。在这些困难时期，所有这些都需要大量的流动性流入。”<b>那么，选择是通胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说，“这是一个选择，而且<b>我认为我们将会有两者的结合。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终会走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，我们现在又回来了。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上同比增长了75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。正常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。爆炸式的货币供应将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率——还没有，但你正在达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到10%的范围同比.....<b>美联储已经失去了对通胀的控制。</b>“请记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为10%时，约翰·威廉姆斯说，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为10%时，我的数字将升至15%左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com的通胀率超过11%。</b>如果按照1980年之前的方式计算，当时政府开始使用会计噱头让通货膨胀看起来低于实际情况。Shadowstats.com的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报道的“官方”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经出现的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来以物易物……随着时间的推移，实物黄金和白银是保护你购买力的最佳方式。”<b>对于大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀何时会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在2022年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告2022年将出现恶性通胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告2022年将出现恶性通胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-25 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com创始人、经济学家John Williams表示<b>美联储将自己逼入了如此困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这可以归结为“通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止印刷大量货币用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性进入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>这个系统需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比你已经看到的更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要保持银行系统的运转。他们希望保持经济的运转。在这些困难时期，所有这些都需要大量的流动性流入。”<b>那么，选择是通胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说，“这是一个选择，而且<b>我认为我们将会有两者的结合。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终会走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，我们现在又回来了。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上同比增长了75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。正常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。爆炸式的货币供应将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率——还没有，但你正在达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到10%的范围同比.....<b>美联储已经失去了对通胀的控制。</b>“请记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为10%时，约翰·威廉姆斯说，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为10%时，我的数字将升至15%左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com的通胀率超过11%。</b>如果按照1980年之前的方式计算，当时政府开始使用会计噱头让通货膨胀看起来低于实际情况。Shadowstats.com的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报道的“官方”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经出现的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来以物易物……随着时间的推移，实物黄金和白银是保护你购买力的最佳方式。”<b>对于大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀何时会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在2022年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145456924","content_text":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight cornerwith the economy it really has only two choices.Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”\nWhat would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?  Williams explains,\n\n “\n You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function. Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.  In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.  It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.  The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.  They want to keep the economy afloat.  All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”\n\nSo, is the choice inflation or implosion?Williams says, “That’s the choice, andI think we are going to have a combination of both of them...\"\n\n \"\n   I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse. It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.  You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.  This is unprecedented.  Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.  The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.  I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .\n The Fed has lost control of inflation.”\n\nAnd remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.  My number rides on top of their number.”\nRight now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.  The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.\nWilliams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.  Williams says,\n\n “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”\n Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.  Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”\n\nWhen will the worst inflation be hitting America?  Williams predicts,\n\n“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197451850,"gmtCreate":1621481036370,"gmtModify":1634188790605,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"invest carefully!","listText":"invest carefully!","text":"invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197451850","repostId":"1129952039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129952039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621466041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129952039?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-20 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129952039","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>在会议纪要发布后，标普500加剧了损失，一些美联储政策制定者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，在即将举行的会议上“在某个时候”开始讨论美联储每月购买国债的规模将变得适当，这是一项旨在保持长期利率较低的政策。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>比尔·诺西(Bill Northey)表示：“参与者以及美联储工作人员仍然认为，这些开始变得明显的通胀压力在他们看来仍将是暂时的，并且可能会随着我们过渡到2022年而消退。”明尼阿波利斯合众银行财富管理公司高级投资总监。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证价格上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了人们的担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大主要股指在早盘大幅低开后均触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给其带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌164.62点，跌幅0.48%，至33,896.04点；标普500下跌12.15点，跌幅0.29%，至4,115.68点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.90点，跌幅0.03%，至13,299.74点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为107亿股，而过去20个交易日全交易日平均成交量为106亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>在中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了30%和45%，但在它们的两个最大支持者——特斯拉公司首席执行官Elon Musk和Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood——之后，它们在下午交易中大幅止住了跌幅。重申了对比特币的支持。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商Coinbase Global、矿商Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.15比1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下3个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高，49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿件包裹市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS超过预期0.04美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司L Brands实现季度盈利</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司Synopsys超额完成第二财季目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 07:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>在会议纪要发布后，标普500加剧了损失，一些美联储政策制定者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，在即将举行的会议上“在某个时候”开始讨论美联储每月购买国债的规模将变得适当，这是一项旨在保持长期利率较低的政策。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>比尔·诺西(Bill Northey)表示：“参与者以及美联储工作人员仍然认为，这些开始变得明显的通胀压力在他们看来仍将是暂时的，并且可能会随着我们过渡到2022年而消退。”明尼阿波利斯合众银行财富管理公司高级投资总监。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证价格上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了人们的担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大主要股指在早盘大幅低开后均触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给其带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌164.62点，跌幅0.48%，至33,896.04点；标普500下跌12.15点，跌幅0.29%，至4,115.68点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.90点，跌幅0.03%，至13,299.74点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为107亿股，而过去20个交易日全交易日平均成交量为106亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>在中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了30%和45%，但在它们的两个最大支持者——特斯拉公司首席执行官Elon Musk和Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood——之后，它们在下午交易中大幅止住了跌幅。重申了对比特币的支持。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商Coinbase Global、矿商Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.15比1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下3个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高，49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿件包裹市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS超过预期0.04美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司L Brands实现季度盈利</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司Synopsys超额完成第二财季目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129952039","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.The S&P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.Financial Report4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenueVictoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales riseCisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlookChip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192436129,"gmtCreate":1621221278561,"gmtModify":1634193269741,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","listText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","text":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192436129","repostId":"1199537372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199537372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621220749,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199537372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不用担心股市崩盘的3个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199537372","media":"fool","summary":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number an","content":"<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>由于就业人数意外减少和通胀报告意外上升，股市在过去一周左右经历了一些艰难的日子。一点波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到历史高位的估值以及去年市场大幅下跌后的其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但2020年的崩盘，市场在大约一个月内损失了33%的价值，强化了一些宝贵的投资教训。这里有三个不用担心另一次股市崩盘的好理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，<b>标普500</b>收于3386点，到3月23日收于2257点，市场价值损失了33%。这是一个惊人的跌幅，也是美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的跌幅之一。但它也是最短的熊市之一，因为该市场在8月17日收于3,382点时恢复了全部价值。不到六个月的时间，损失就被抹去了——甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>仅仅一年多后，截至2021年5月13日，标普500在4100左右。这比2020年3月23日的低点增长了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2、买入机会大</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，而且理由很充分：当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找购买好公司的机会，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>迪斯尼</b>从2月19日到3月23日，该股暴跌近40%，跌至每股85美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股票交易如此之低时买入了迪士尼股票，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将大幅反弹。到11月，股价已回到每股140美元，回到了崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股票目前交易价格约为171美元，是2020年3月底部的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做好研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下跌时，你绝对应该将其视为机会，而不是问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3.你的投资是长期的</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外遇到一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢走开，不要做任何鲁莽的事情。对昙花一现或熊熊般的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，出现了无数次熊市，分为市场下跌20%或以上，以及更多的市场调整，下跌10%或以上。然而，标普500经历了所有的跌宕起伏，在过去30年里的平均年回报率为8%。过去10年，截至5月13日，该基准的年化回报率约为11.8%。一些股票，如迪士尼，过去10年的年化回报率约为17%，其表现远好于基准。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人心烦意乱，但如果你记住这三点，它们就不那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不用担心股市崩盘的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不用担心股市崩盘的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 11:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>由于就业人数意外减少和通胀报告意外上升，股市在过去一周左右经历了一些艰难的日子。一点波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到历史高位的估值以及去年市场大幅下跌后的其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但2020年的崩盘，市场在大约一个月内损失了33%的价值，强化了一些宝贵的投资教训。这里有三个不用担心另一次股市崩盘的好理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，<b>标普500</b>收于3386点，到3月23日收于2257点，市场价值损失了33%。这是一个惊人的跌幅，也是美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的跌幅之一。但它也是最短的熊市之一，因为该市场在8月17日收于3,382点时恢复了全部价值。不到六个月的时间，损失就被抹去了——甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>仅仅一年多后，截至2021年5月13日，标普500在4100左右。这比2020年3月23日的低点增长了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2、买入机会大</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，而且理由很充分：当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找购买好公司的机会，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>迪斯尼</b>从2月19日到3月23日，该股暴跌近40%，跌至每股85美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股票交易如此之低时买入了迪士尼股票，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将大幅反弹。到11月，股价已回到每股140美元，回到了崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股票目前交易价格约为171美元，是2020年3月底部的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做好研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下跌时，你绝对应该将其视为机会，而不是问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3.你的投资是长期的</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外遇到一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢走开，不要做任何鲁莽的事情。对昙花一现或熊熊般的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，出现了无数次熊市，分为市场下跌20%或以上，以及更多的市场调整，下跌10%或以上。然而，标普500经历了所有的跌宕起伏，在过去30年里的平均年回报率为8%。过去10年，截至5月13日，该基准的年化回报率约为11.8%。一些股票，如迪士尼，过去10年的年化回报率约为17%，其表现远好于基准。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人心烦意乱，但如果你记住这三点，它们就不那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199537372","content_text":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.1. Patience will be rewardedFrom Feb. 19, 2020, when theS&P 500closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.2. There are great buying opportunitiesThere's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --Walt Disneystock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.3. You're invested for the long termWhen bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190663785,"gmtCreate":1620616528147,"gmtModify":1634197658245,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"best to remain cautious...","listText":"best to remain cautious...","text":"best to remain cautious...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190663785","repostId":"2134860876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194415420,"gmtCreate":1621392426860,"gmtModify":1634189517103,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","listText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","text":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194415420","repostId":"1178395449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178395449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621385285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178395449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的17周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178395449","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and co","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——半导体行业的短缺已经对汽车制造商和消费电子公司造成了沉重打击，现在正变得更加严重，使全球经济从冠状病毒大流行中复苏变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据Susquehanna Financial Group的研究，芯片交货时间，即订购芯片和提货之间的差距，在4月份增加到17周，表明用户越来越迫切地希望获得供应。这是该公司自2017年开始跟踪数据以来等待时间最长的一次。</blockquote></p><p> “All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”</p><p><blockquote>Susquehanna分析师Chris Rolland在周二的一份报告中写道：“所有主要产品类别都大幅增长。”他引用了电源管理和模拟芯片交付周期等。“这是自我们开始跟踪数据以来最大的增幅之一。”</blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.</p><p><blockquote>芯片短缺正在波及一个又一个行业，导致公司无法将产品从汽车运输到游戏机和冰箱。由于福特汽车公司、通用汽车公司和其他公司因缺乏必要零部件而不得不闲置工厂，目前预计汽车制造商今年的销售额将损失1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.</p><p><blockquote>该行业及其客户将交货时间视为供需平衡的指标。缺口的拉长表明半导体买家更愿意致力于未来的供应，以避免再次出现短缺。分析师将这些数字视为囤积的先兆，囤积可能导致库存积累过多和订单突然下降。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兰写道：“交货时间的延长往往会迫使客户采取‘不良行为’，包括库存积累、安全库存建设和重复订购。”“这些趋势可能在早期阶段刺激了半导体行业的出货量超过了真实的客户需求。”</blockquote></p><p> The situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>由于芯片制造的关键地点台湾冠状病毒病例死灰复燃，情况变得更加复杂。该国关闭了学校，限制了社交聚会，并关闭了许多成人娱乐场所、博物馆和公共设施。在企业和工厂运营的同时，政府可能不得不考虑更广泛的限制。</blockquote></p><p> The country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.</p><p><blockquote>该国是世界上最先进的芯片制造商台积电公司的所在地，其众多客户中包括苹果公司和高通公司。本地制造商还生产不那么迷人但同样重要的芯片，例如显示驱动IC，这些芯片一直是全球生产的一个特别痛苦的瓶颈。</blockquote></p><p> The current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，目前17周的水平较魅兰此前所说的“危险区”顶部的16周水平有所攀升，标志着连续第四个月“大幅”扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Lead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>4月份电源管理芯片等一些产品的交付周期较上月延长了多达四周。他写道，工业微控制器的订单交付周期延长了三周，这是魅兰自2017年开始跟踪这些数字以来出现的最大幅度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的17周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的17周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-19 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——半导体行业的短缺已经对汽车制造商和消费电子公司造成了沉重打击，现在正变得更加严重，使全球经济从冠状病毒大流行中复苏变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据Susquehanna Financial Group的研究，芯片交货时间，即订购芯片和提货之间的差距，在4月份增加到17周，表明用户越来越迫切地希望获得供应。这是该公司自2017年开始跟踪数据以来等待时间最长的一次。</blockquote></p><p> “All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”</p><p><blockquote>Susquehanna分析师Chris Rolland在周二的一份报告中写道：“所有主要产品类别都大幅增长。”他引用了电源管理和模拟芯片交付周期等。“这是自我们开始跟踪数据以来最大的增幅之一。”</blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.</p><p><blockquote>芯片短缺正在波及一个又一个行业，导致公司无法将产品从汽车运输到游戏机和冰箱。由于福特汽车公司、通用汽车公司和其他公司因缺乏必要零部件而不得不闲置工厂，目前预计汽车制造商今年的销售额将损失1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.</p><p><blockquote>该行业及其客户将交货时间视为供需平衡的指标。缺口的拉长表明半导体买家更愿意致力于未来的供应，以避免再次出现短缺。分析师将这些数字视为囤积的先兆，囤积可能导致库存积累过多和订单突然下降。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兰写道：“交货时间的延长往往会迫使客户采取‘不良行为’，包括库存积累、安全库存建设和重复订购。”“这些趋势可能在早期阶段刺激了半导体行业的出货量超过了真实的客户需求。”</blockquote></p><p> The situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>由于芯片制造的关键地点台湾冠状病毒病例死灰复燃，情况变得更加复杂。该国关闭了学校，限制了社交聚会，并关闭了许多成人娱乐场所、博物馆和公共设施。在企业和工厂运营的同时，政府可能不得不考虑更广泛的限制。</blockquote></p><p> The country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.</p><p><blockquote>该国是世界上最先进的芯片制造商台积电公司的所在地，其众多客户中包括苹果公司和高通公司。本地制造商还生产不那么迷人但同样重要的芯片，例如显示驱动IC，这些芯片一直是全球生产的一个特别痛苦的瓶颈。</blockquote></p><p> The current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，目前17周的水平较魅兰此前所说的“危险区”顶部的16周水平有所攀升，标志着连续第四个月“大幅”扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Lead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>4月份电源管理芯片等一些产品的交付周期较上月延长了多达四周。他写道，工业微控制器的订单交付周期延长了三周，这是魅兰自2017年开始跟踪这些数字以来出现的最大幅度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178395449","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\nChip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.\n“All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”\nChip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.\nThe industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.\n“Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”\nThe situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.\nThe country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.\nThe current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.\nLead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180674218,"gmtCreate":1623203981634,"gmtModify":1634035840157,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...","listText":"With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...","text":"With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180674218","repostId":"2142296344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":851193147,"gmtCreate":1634877112785,"gmtModify":1634877112864,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!","listText":"as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!","text":"as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851193147","repostId":"1107568912","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374086168,"gmtCreate":1619402249054,"gmtModify":1634273771003,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"exciting week ahead!","listText":"exciting week ahead!","text":"exciting week ahead!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374086168","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350245476,"gmtCreate":1616218560695,"gmtModify":1634526675130,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read!","listText":"Interesting read!","text":"Interesting read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350245476","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373348974,"gmtCreate":1618825420898,"gmtModify":1634290604991,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","listText":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","text":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373348974","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351916868,"gmtCreate":1616552455854,"gmtModify":1634525234549,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting read!","listText":"interesting read!","text":"interesting read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351916868","repostId":"1170900340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170900340","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616549073,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170900340?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170900340","media":"fool","summary":"Small-caps are feeling the pain\nMany investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they","content":"<p>Small-caps are feeling the pain</p><p><blockquote>小盘股感受到了痛苦</blockquote></p><p> Many investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者不太关注小盘股，但它们在衡量经济健康状况方面发挥着至关重要的作用。许多大盘股具有全球范围，因此它们的股价更多地代表着全球经济的健康状况。相比之下，规模较小的公司更有可能专注于本国市场。这意味着美国小盘股通常只对美国经济有敞口。</blockquote></p><p> It's therefore troubling to see the<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>fall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到<b>罗素2000指数</b>过去一周大幅下跌。回顾过去一周，尽管主要大盘指数维持在窄幅区间，从小幅上涨到下跌1%左右，但罗素指数却出现了近6%的大跌。在许多投资者看来，这已经是一个小调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1477ac9c10cb42de9401ae785e7cf2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Small-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股公司面临着一个不确定的环境，这种环境可能会向任何一个方向发展。一方面，某些行业的公司存在大量被压抑的需求，一旦疫情得到控制，这些企业的收入和利润将大幅增长。然而，小盘股对利率等宏观经济因素也更加敏感。长期利率的上升一直困扰着小公司，尤其是那些在疫情期间为了维持运营而增加杠杆的公司。更高的借贷成本可能会在最糟糕的时候将资本从增长努力中转移出来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies like<b>Laredo Petroleum</b>(NYSE:LPI)and<b>Nabors Industries</b>(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>部分下跌也与能源股更集中在小盘股中有关。大盘股指数的能源敞口很小，但像这样的公司却大幅下跌<b>拉雷多石油公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LPI）和<b>纳伯斯工业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NBR）过去一周对罗素指数产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Reverting to the mean</p><p><blockquote>恢复到平均值</blockquote></p><p> The counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&amp;P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.</p><p><blockquote>对小盘股担忧的反驳是，当你观察稍长的时间框架时，它们的表现仍然相对较好。2021年迄今为止，罗素指数已上涨近13%，是道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数投资者涨幅的两倍多。小盘股基准指数较本月早些时候的峰值表现略有回落，当然并不意味着股市崩盘即将来临。短期波动一直在发生。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计将于周二晚些时候发表评论，华尔街仍将关注整体市场，尤其是小盘股。如果这种差距持续下去，对于那些希望2021年美国主流企业强劲复苏的人来说，这不是一个好信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Small-caps are feeling the pain</p><p><blockquote>小盘股感受到了痛苦</blockquote></p><p> Many investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者不太关注小盘股，但它们在衡量经济健康状况方面发挥着至关重要的作用。许多大盘股具有全球范围，因此它们的股价更多地代表着全球经济的健康状况。相比之下，规模较小的公司更有可能专注于本国市场。这意味着美国小盘股通常只对美国经济有敞口。</blockquote></p><p> It's therefore troubling to see the<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>fall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到<b>罗素2000指数</b>过去一周大幅下跌。回顾过去一周，尽管主要大盘指数维持在窄幅区间，从小幅上涨到下跌1%左右，但罗素指数却出现了近6%的大跌。在许多投资者看来，这已经是一个小调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1477ac9c10cb42de9401ae785e7cf2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Small-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股公司面临着一个不确定的环境，这种环境可能会向任何一个方向发展。一方面，某些行业的公司存在大量被压抑的需求，一旦疫情得到控制，这些企业的收入和利润将大幅增长。然而，小盘股对利率等宏观经济因素也更加敏感。长期利率的上升一直困扰着小公司，尤其是那些在疫情期间为了维持运营而增加杠杆的公司。更高的借贷成本可能会在最糟糕的时候将资本从增长努力中转移出来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies like<b>Laredo Petroleum</b>(NYSE:LPI)and<b>Nabors Industries</b>(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>部分下跌也与能源股更集中在小盘股中有关。大盘股指数的能源敞口很小，但像这样的公司却大幅下跌<b>拉雷多石油公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LPI）和<b>纳伯斯工业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NBR）过去一周对罗素指数产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Reverting to the mean</p><p><blockquote>恢复到平均值</blockquote></p><p> The counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&amp;P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.</p><p><blockquote>对小盘股担忧的反驳是，当你观察稍长的时间框架时，它们的表现仍然相对较好。2021年迄今为止，罗素指数已上涨近13%，是道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数投资者涨幅的两倍多。小盘股基准指数较本月早些时候的峰值表现略有回落，当然并不意味着股市崩盘即将来临。短期波动一直在发生。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计将于周二晚些时候发表评论，华尔街仍将关注整体市场，尤其是小盘股。如果这种差距持续下去，对于那些希望2021年美国主流企业强劲复苏的人来说，这不是一个好信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/is-this-little-watched-stock-market-niche-signalin/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/is-this-little-watched-stock-market-niche-signalin/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170900340","content_text":"Small-caps are feeling the pain\nMany investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.\nIt's therefore troubling to see theRussell 2000 Indexfall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.\nSmall-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.\nSome of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies likeLaredo Petroleum(NYSE:LPI)andNabors Industries(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.\nReverting to the mean\nThe counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.\nNevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343340345,"gmtCreate":1617681237087,"gmtModify":1634297131182,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"invest carefully!","listText":"invest carefully!","text":"invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343340345","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356472196,"gmtCreate":1616811073415,"gmtModify":1634523878607,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting read!","listText":"interesting read!","text":"interesting read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356472196","repostId":"1114428323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358087315,"gmtCreate":1616641046837,"gmtModify":1634524775197,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting read!","listText":"interesting read!","text":"interesting read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358087315","repostId":"2122493331","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359021195,"gmtCreate":1616303576617,"gmtModify":1634526408218,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good read","listText":"good read","text":"good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359021195","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345370169,"gmtCreate":1618282548051,"gmtModify":1634293958803,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba,&nbsp;it’s best to be cautious...","listText":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba,&nbsp;it’s best to be cautious...","text":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba, it’s best to be cautious...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345370169","repostId":"1101127164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351882187,"gmtCreate":1616584863249,"gmtModify":1634525081234,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting read!","listText":"interesting read!","text":"interesting read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351882187","repostId":"1164066925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}