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2021-04-27

looking forward to an eventful week!

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2021-06-11

As with any stock, you have to be careful!

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2021-05-02

could be a market correction...

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2021-05-25

[Gosh]

"The Fed Has Lost Control" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告 2022 年将出现恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>

2021-05-20

invest carefully!

U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>

2021-05-17

yes, market corrections are bound to happen!

3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不必担心股市崩盘的 3 个理由</blockquote>

2021-05-10

best to remain cautious...

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2021-05-19

will take quite a while for this industry to recover...

Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的 17 周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>

2021-06-09

With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...

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2021-10-22

as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!

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08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告 2022 年将出现恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145456924","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into","content":"<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com 创始人、经济学家约翰·威廉姆斯 (John Williams) 表示<b>美联储把自己陷入了如此艰难的困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这归结为 “通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止大量印钞用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性注入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>该体系需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能正常运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比以往更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要维持银行体系的运转。他们希望维持经济的运转。所有这些都需要在当前困难时期大量流动性的流入。<b>那么，选择是通货膨胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说：“这是选择，<b>我认为我们将两者结合起来。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终将走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，而是我们现在正在卷土重来。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上每年都在增长75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。通常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。货币供应量的爆炸式增长将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率，但你会达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到每年10%的范围。...<b>美联储已经失去了对通货膨胀的控制。</b>“约翰-威廉姆斯说：”记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为 10% 时，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为 10% 时，我的数字将达到 15% 左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com 的通货膨胀率超过 11%。</b>如果按照 1980 年之前的计算方法计算的话，当时政府开始利用会计噱头让通货膨胀率看起来比实际情况低。Shadowstats.com 的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报告的 “官方 ”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经存在的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来交换......实物黄金和白银是随着时间的推移保护你购买力的最佳方式”。<b>对大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀什么时候会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在 2022 年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃的情况。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告 2022 年将出现恶性通货膨胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告 2022 年将出现恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-25 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com 创始人、经济学家约翰·威廉姆斯 (John Williams) 表示<b>美联储把自己陷入了如此艰难的困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这归结为 “通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止大量印钞用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性注入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>该体系需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能正常运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比以往更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要维持银行体系的运转。他们希望维持经济的运转。所有这些都需要在当前困难时期大量流动性的流入。<b>那么，选择是通货膨胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说：“这是选择，<b>我认为我们将两者结合起来。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终将走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，而是我们现在正在卷土重来。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上每年都在增长75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。通常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。货币供应量的爆炸式增长将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率，但你会达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到每年10%的范围。...<b>美联储已经失去了对通货膨胀的控制。</b>“约翰-威廉姆斯说：”记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为 10% 时，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为 10% 时，我的数字将达到 15% 左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com 的通货膨胀率超过 11%。</b>如果按照 1980 年之前的计算方法计算的话，当时政府开始利用会计噱头让通货膨胀率看起来比实际情况低。Shadowstats.com 的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报告的 “官方 ”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经存在的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来交换......实物黄金和白银是随着时间的推移保护你购买力的最佳方式”。<b>对大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀什么时候会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在 2022 年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃的情况。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145456924","content_text":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight cornerwith the economy it really has only two choices.Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”\nWhat would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?  Williams explains,\n\n “\n You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function. Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.  In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.  It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.  The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.  They want to keep the economy afloat.  All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”\n\nSo, is the choice inflation or implosion?Williams says, “That’s the choice, andI think we are going to have a combination of both of them...\"\n\n \"\n   I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse. It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.  You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.  This is unprecedented.  Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.  The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.  I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .\n The Fed has lost control of inflation.”\n\nAnd remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.  My number rides on top of their number.”\nRight now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.  The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.\nWilliams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.  Williams says,\n\n “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”\n Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.  Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”\n\nWhen will the worst inflation be hitting America?  Williams predicts,\n\n“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197451850,"gmtCreate":1621481036370,"gmtModify":1634188790605,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"invest carefully!","listText":"invest carefully!","text":"invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197451850","repostId":"1129952039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129952039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621466041,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129952039?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-20 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129952039","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要公布后，一些美联储决策者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，那么在即将召开的会议上 “在某个时候 ”开始讨论缩减美联储每月购买的政府债券规模将变得合适，这一政策旨在保持长期利率较低。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>“明尼阿波利斯美国银行财富管理公司（U.S. Bank Wealth Management）高级投资总监比尔-诺西（Bill Northey）表示：”与会者和美联储工作人员仍然认为，在他们看来，这些开始显现的通胀压力仍将是暂时的，随着我们进入2022年，这些压力很可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证物价上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大股指在早盘大幅低开后触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给它们带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 164.62 点，跌幅 0.48%，至 33,896.04 点；标普500指数下跌 12.15 点，跌幅 0.29%，至 4,115.68 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 3.90 点，跌幅 0.03%，至 13,299.74 点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 107.0 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日整个交易日的平均成交量为 106.0 亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，这也加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了 30% 和 45%，但在它们的两大支持者--特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）和方舟投资公司（Ark Invest）首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）--重申支持比特币之后，它们在下午的交易中大幅收复了跌幅。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商 Coinbase Global、矿商 Riot Blockchain 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.15 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 3 个 52 周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高和49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿个包裹将市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS 超过预期 0.04 美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司 L Brands 实现季度利润</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升，影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司新思科技超额完成第二季度财政目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 07:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要公布后，一些美联储决策者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，那么在即将召开的会议上 “在某个时候 ”开始讨论缩减美联储每月购买的政府债券规模将变得合适，这一政策旨在保持长期利率较低。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>“明尼阿波利斯美国银行财富管理公司（U.S. Bank Wealth Management）高级投资总监比尔-诺西（Bill Northey）表示：”与会者和美联储工作人员仍然认为，在他们看来，这些开始显现的通胀压力仍将是暂时的，随着我们进入2022年，这些压力很可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证物价上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大股指在早盘大幅低开后触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给它们带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 164.62 点，跌幅 0.48%，至 33,896.04 点；标普500指数下跌 12.15 点，跌幅 0.29%，至 4,115.68 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 3.90 点，跌幅 0.03%，至 13,299.74 点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 107.0 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日整个交易日的平均成交量为 106.0 亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，这也加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了 30% 和 45%，但在它们的两大支持者--特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）和方舟投资公司（Ark Invest）首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）--重申支持比特币之后，它们在下午的交易中大幅收复了跌幅。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商 Coinbase Global、矿商 Riot Blockchain 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.15 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 3 个 52 周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高和49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿个包裹将市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS 超过预期 0.04 美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司 L Brands 实现季度利润</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升，影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司新思科技超额完成第二季度财政目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129952039","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.The S&P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.Financial Report4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenueVictoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales riseCisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlookChip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194415420,"gmtCreate":1621392426860,"gmtModify":1634189517103,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","listText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","text":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194415420","repostId":"1178395449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178395449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621385285,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178395449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的 17 周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178395449","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and co","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--半导体行业的短缺已经重创了汽车制造商和消费电子公司，现在情况变得更加糟糕，使全球经济复苏复杂化...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的 17 周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的 17 周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-19 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--半导体行业的短缺已经重创了汽车制造商和消费电子公司，现在情况变得更加糟糕，使全球经济复苏复杂化...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178395449","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\nChip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.\n“All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”\nChip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.\nThe industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.\n“Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”\nThe situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.\nThe country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.\nThe current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.\nLead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192436129,"gmtCreate":1621221278561,"gmtModify":1634193269741,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","listText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","text":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192436129","repostId":"1199537372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199537372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621220749,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199537372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不必担心股市崩盘的 3 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199537372","media":"fool","summary":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number an","content":"<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周左右，由于就业人数出乎意料地低和通胀报告出乎意料地高，股市经历了一些艰难的日子。轻微的波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到去年市场大幅下跌后的历史高位估值和其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但 2020 年的崩盘，当时市场在大约一个月内损失了 33% 的价值，强化了一些有价值的投资教训。以下是不必担心股市再次崩盘的三个充分理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，当<b>标普500</b>收盘价为 3,386 点，截至 3 月 23 日收盘价为 2,257 点，市场价值下跌了 33%。这是一个惊人的下跌，代表了美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的下跌之一。但这也是有史以来最短的熊市之一，因为市场在 8 月 17 日收于 3,382 点时恢复了全部价值。在不到六个月的时间里，损失就被抹去了，甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>一年多后，截至 2021 年 5 月 13 日，标普500约为 4,100 辆。这比2020年3月23日的低点上涨了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.有很大的买入机会</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，这是有充分理由的：当别人贪婪时恐惧，当别人恐惧时贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找机会购买好公司，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>华特·迪士尼</b>从 2 月 19 日到 3 月 23 日，该股暴跌近 40%，当时跌至每股 85 美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股价如此低时买入，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将会大幅反弹。到 11 月，股价已回到每股 140 美元，回到崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股价目前约为 171 美元，是 2020 年 3 月低点的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做你的研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下滑时，你绝对应该将其视为一个机会，而不是一个问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3. 你是长期投资</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外面对一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢地走开，不要做任何轻率的事情。对短暂的轰鸣声或熊大的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，有无数次熊市，分类为市场下跌20%或以上，还有更多市场修正，下跌10%或以上。然而，尽管经历了所有的起伏，标普500在过去30年中的平均年回报率为8%。过去 10 年，截至 5 月 13 日，该基准的年化回报率约为 11.8%。一些股票，例如迪士尼，过去 10 年的年化回报率约为 17%，其表现比基准好得多。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人紧张，但如果你记住这三点，就不会那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不必担心股市崩盘的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不必担心股市崩盘的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 11:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周左右，由于就业人数出乎意料地低和通胀报告出乎意料地高，股市经历了一些艰难的日子。轻微的波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到去年市场大幅下跌后的历史高位估值和其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但 2020 年的崩盘，当时市场在大约一个月内损失了 33% 的价值，强化了一些有价值的投资教训。以下是不必担心股市再次崩盘的三个充分理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，当<b>标普500</b>收盘价为 3,386 点，截至 3 月 23 日收盘价为 2,257 点，市场价值下跌了 33%。这是一个惊人的下跌，代表了美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的下跌之一。但这也是有史以来最短的熊市之一，因为市场在 8 月 17 日收于 3,382 点时恢复了全部价值。在不到六个月的时间里，损失就被抹去了，甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>一年多后，截至 2021 年 5 月 13 日，标普500约为 4,100 辆。这比2020年3月23日的低点上涨了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.有很大的买入机会</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，这是有充分理由的：当别人贪婪时恐惧，当别人恐惧时贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找机会购买好公司，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>华特·迪士尼</b>从 2 月 19 日到 3 月 23 日，该股暴跌近 40%，当时跌至每股 85 美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股价如此低时买入，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将会大幅反弹。到 11 月，股价已回到每股 140 美元，回到崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股价目前约为 171 美元，是 2020 年 3 月低点的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做你的研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下滑时，你绝对应该将其视为一个机会，而不是一个问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3. 你是长期投资</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外面对一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢地走开，不要做任何轻率的事情。对短暂的轰鸣声或熊大的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，有无数次熊市，分类为市场下跌20%或以上，还有更多市场修正，下跌10%或以上。然而，尽管经历了所有的起伏，标普500在过去30年中的平均年回报率为8%。过去 10 年，截至 5 月 13 日，该基准的年化回报率约为 11.8%。一些股票，例如迪士尼，过去 10 年的年化回报率约为 17%，其表现比基准好得多。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人紧张，但如果你记住这三点，就不会那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199537372","content_text":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.1. Patience will be rewardedFrom Feb. 19, 2020, when theS&P 500closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.2. There are great buying opportunitiesThere's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --Walt Disneystock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.3. You're invested for the long termWhen bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190663785,"gmtCreate":1620616528147,"gmtModify":1634197658245,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"best to remain cautious...","listText":"best to remain cautious...","text":"best to remain cautious...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190663785","repostId":"2134860876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101490385,"gmtCreate":1619928242947,"gmtModify":1634209045009,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"could be a market correction...","listText":"could be a market correction...","text":"could be a market correction...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101490385","repostId":"1186088353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377363607,"gmtCreate":1619497435309,"gmtModify":1634212263169,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","listText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","text":"looking forward to an eventful week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":37,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377363607","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374086168,"gmtCreate":1619402249054,"gmtModify":1634273771003,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"exciting week ahead!","listText":"exciting week ahead!","text":"exciting week ahead!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374086168","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373348974,"gmtCreate":1618825420898,"gmtModify":1634290604991,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","listText":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","text":"looks like it’s going to be an interesting week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373348974","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345370169,"gmtCreate":1618282548051,"gmtModify":1634293958803,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba,&nbsp;it’s best to be cautious...","listText":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba,&nbsp;it’s best to be cautious...","text":"with all the new regulations targeting the tech firms like alibaba, it’s best to be cautious...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345370169","repostId":"1101127164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346796503,"gmtCreate":1618110074402,"gmtModify":1634294864125,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"seems like this stock has good potential!","listText":"seems like this stock has good potential!","text":"seems like this stock has good potential!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346796503","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346699314,"gmtCreate":1618026959038,"gmtModify":1634295152279,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hope this can address the vaccine shortage and export policy issues...","listText":"hope this can address the vaccine shortage and export policy issues...","text":"hope this can address the vaccine shortage and export policy issues...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346699314","repostId":"2126038125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346035251,"gmtCreate":1617973250773,"gmtModify":1634295448996,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"rip","listText":"rip","text":"rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346035251","repostId":"1144618735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341004759,"gmtCreate":1617759568972,"gmtModify":1634296683008,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"need to invest carefully...","listText":"need to invest carefully...","text":"need to invest carefully...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341004759","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343340345,"gmtCreate":1617681237087,"gmtModify":1634297131182,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"invest carefully!","listText":"invest carefully!","text":"invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343340345","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349300133,"gmtCreate":1617533884722,"gmtModify":1634520618079,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good to have a balanced investment plan, hope for&nbsp;the best but prepare for the worst.","listText":"good to have a balanced investment plan, hope for&nbsp;the best but prepare for the worst.","text":"good to have a balanced investment plan, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349300133","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357884644,"gmtCreate":1617258652788,"gmtModify":1634521758157,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560049684041165","authorIdStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mastercard is very active vs competitors","listText":"mastercard is very active vs competitors","text":"mastercard is very active vs competitors","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357884644","repostId":"2124201664","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":377363607,"gmtCreate":1619497435309,"gmtModify":1634212263169,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","listText":"looking forward to an eventful week!","text":"looking forward to an eventful week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":37,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377363607","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181361521,"gmtCreate":1623374574263,"gmtModify":1634034048312,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"As with any stock, you have to be careful!","listText":"As with any stock, you have to be careful!","text":"As with any stock, you have to be careful!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181361521","repostId":"1194129273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101490385,"gmtCreate":1619928242947,"gmtModify":1634209045009,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"could be a market correction...","listText":"could be a market correction...","text":"could be a market correction...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101490385","repostId":"1186088353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138967473,"gmtCreate":1621905713592,"gmtModify":1634185631898,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Gosh]&nbsp;","listText":"[Gosh]&nbsp;","text":"[Gosh]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138967473","repostId":"1145456924","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145456924","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621902681,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145456924?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-25 08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告 2022 年将出现恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145456924","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into","content":"<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com 创始人、经济学家约翰·威廉姆斯 (John Williams) 表示<b>美联储把自己陷入了如此艰难的困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这归结为 “通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止大量印钞用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性注入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>该体系需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能正常运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比以往更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要维持银行体系的运转。他们希望维持经济的运转。所有这些都需要在当前困难时期大量流动性的流入。<b>那么，选择是通货膨胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说：“这是选择，<b>我认为我们将两者结合起来。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终将走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，而是我们现在正在卷土重来。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上每年都在增长75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。通常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。货币供应量的爆炸式增长将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率，但你会达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到每年10%的范围。...<b>美联储已经失去了对通货膨胀的控制。</b>“约翰-威廉姆斯说：”记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为 10% 时，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为 10% 时，我的数字将达到 15% 左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com 的通货膨胀率超过 11%。</b>如果按照 1980 年之前的计算方法计算的话，当时政府开始利用会计噱头让通货膨胀率看起来比实际情况低。Shadowstats.com 的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报告的 “官方 ”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经存在的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来交换......实物黄金和白银是随着时间的推移保护你购买力的最佳方式”。<b>对大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀什么时候会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在 2022 年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃的情况。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告 2022 年将出现恶性通货膨胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"The Fed Has Lost Control\" - John Williams Warns Of Hyperinflation In 2022<blockquote>“美联储已经失去控制”——约翰·威廉姆斯警告 2022 年将出现恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-25 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the<b>Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner</b>with the economy it really has only two choices.<b>Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”</b></p><p><blockquote>ShadowStats.com 创始人、经济学家约翰·威廉姆斯 (John Williams) 表示<b>美联储把自己陷入了如此艰难的困境</b>在经济形势下，它实际上只有两个选择。<b>威廉姆斯说，这归结为 “通货膨胀或内爆”。</b></blockquote></p><p> What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?&nbsp; Williams explains,</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储停止大量印钞用于刺激和偿债，金融体系会发生什么？威廉姆斯解释说，</blockquote></p><p>   “  <b>You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.</b>The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function.&nbsp;Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.&nbsp; In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.&nbsp; It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.&nbsp; The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.&nbsp; They want to keep the economy afloat.&nbsp; All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”  <b>So, is the choice inflation or implosion?</b>Williams says, “That’s the choice, and<b>I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.</b>..\"</p><p><blockquote>“<b>通过阻止流动性注入系统，你可能会看到金融内爆。</b>该体系需要流动性（新创造的美元）才能正常运转。如果没有流动性，你会看到比以往更多的经济内爆。事实上，我认为疫情的总体数据实际上比他们报道的要糟糕得多。这也意味着我们的复苏速度没有那么快。美联储需要维持银行体系的运转。他们希望维持经济的运转。所有这些都需要在当前困难时期大量流动性的流入。<b>那么，选择是通货膨胀还是内爆？</b>威廉姆斯说：“这是选择，<b>我认为我们将两者结合起来。</b>..\"</blockquote></p><p>   \"  <b>&nbsp; I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.</b>&nbsp;It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.&nbsp; You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.&nbsp; This is unprecedented.&nbsp; Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.&nbsp; The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.&nbsp; I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .  <b>The Fed has lost control of inflation.</b>”  And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.&nbsp; My number rides on top of their number.”</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>我认为我们最终将走向恶性通货膨胀的经济崩溃。</b>这并不是说我们还没有陷入经济崩溃，而是我们现在正在卷土重来。...美联储一直在以前所未有的速度创造货币。你基本上每年都在增长75%（货币创造）。这是前所未有的。通常情况下，它可能会同比增长1%或2%。货币供应量的爆炸式增长将导致通货膨胀。我并不是说我们会达到75%的通货膨胀率，但你会达到4%或5%的范围，你很快就会看到每年10%的范围。...<b>美联储已经失去了对通货膨胀的控制。</b>“约翰-威廉姆斯说：”记住，当美联储不得不承认官方通胀率为 10% 时，“当他们不得不承认通胀率为 10% 时，我的数字将达到 15% 左右或更高。我的数字高于他们的数字”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.</b>That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.&nbsp; The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，Shadowstat.com 的通货膨胀率超过 11%。</b>如果按照 1980 年之前的计算方法计算的话，当时政府开始利用会计噱头让通货膨胀率看起来比实际情况低。Shadowstats.com 的数字剔除了所有会计噱头，是大多数美国人现在看到的真实通货膨胀率，而不是最近报告的 “官方 ”4.25%。</blockquote></p><p> Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.&nbsp; Williams says,</p><p><blockquote>威廉姆斯说，对抗已经存在的通货膨胀的最好方法是购买有形资产。威廉姆斯说，</blockquote></p><p>   “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  <b>Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.&nbsp; Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”</b>  When will the worst inflation be hitting America?&nbsp; Williams predicts,</p><p><blockquote>“罐头食品是一种有形资产，如果有必要，你可以用它来交换......实物黄金和白银是随着时间的推移保护你购买力的最佳方式”。<b>对大多数人来说，黄金可能有点贵，但白银仍然相对便宜。威廉姆斯说：“所有东西的价格都会上涨。”</b>最严重的通货膨胀什么时候会袭击美国？威廉姆斯预测，</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”</b></i> </p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我正在展望未来，在 2022 年初，我正在寻找接近恶性通货膨胀的情况，实际上是经济崩溃的情况。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-has-lost-control-john-williams-warns-hyperinflation-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145456924","content_text":"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says theFederal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight cornerwith the economy it really has only two choices.Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.”\nWhat would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?  Williams explains,\n\n “\n You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function. Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.  In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.  It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.  The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.  They want to keep the economy afloat.  All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”\n\nSo, is the choice inflation or implosion?Williams says, “That’s the choice, andI think we are going to have a combination of both of them...\"\n\n \"\n   I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse. It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.  You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.  This is unprecedented.  Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.  The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.  I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . .\n The Fed has lost control of inflation.”\n\nAnd remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.  My number rides on top of their number.”\nRight now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.  The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.\nWilliams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.  Williams says,\n\n “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”\n Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.  Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”\n\nWhen will the worst inflation be hitting America?  Williams predicts,\n\n“I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197451850,"gmtCreate":1621481036370,"gmtModify":1634188790605,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"invest carefully!","listText":"invest carefully!","text":"invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197451850","repostId":"1129952039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129952039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621466041,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129952039?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-20 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129952039","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要公布后，一些美联储决策者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，那么在即将召开的会议上 “在某个时候 ”开始讨论缩减美联储每月购买的政府债券规模将变得合适，这一政策旨在保持长期利率较低。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>“明尼阿波利斯美国银行财富管理公司（U.S. Bank Wealth Management）高级投资总监比尔-诺西（Bill Northey）表示：”与会者和美联储工作人员仍然认为，在他们看来，这些开始显现的通胀压力仍将是暂时的，随着我们进入2022年，这些压力很可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证物价上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大股指在早盘大幅低开后触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给它们带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 164.62 点，跌幅 0.48%，至 33,896.04 点；标普500指数下跌 12.15 点，跌幅 0.29%，至 4,115.68 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 3.90 点，跌幅 0.03%，至 13,299.74 点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 107.0 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日整个交易日的平均成交量为 106.0 亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，这也加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了 30% 和 45%，但在它们的两大支持者--特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）和方舟投资公司（Ark Invest）首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）--重申支持比特币之后，它们在下午的交易中大幅收复了跌幅。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商 Coinbase Global、矿商 Riot Blockchain 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.15 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 3 个 52 周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高和49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿个包裹将市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS 超过预期 0.04 美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司 L Brands 实现季度利润</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升，影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司新思科技超额完成第二季度财政目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 07:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要公布后，一些美联储决策者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，那么在即将召开的会议上 “在某个时候 ”开始讨论缩减美联储每月购买的政府债券规模将变得合适，这一政策旨在保持长期利率较低。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>“明尼阿波利斯美国银行财富管理公司（U.S. Bank Wealth Management）高级投资总监比尔-诺西（Bill Northey）表示：”与会者和美联储工作人员仍然认为，在他们看来，这些开始显现的通胀压力仍将是暂时的，随着我们进入2022年，这些压力很可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证物价上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大股指在早盘大幅低开后触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给它们带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 164.62 点，跌幅 0.48%，至 33,896.04 点；标普500指数下跌 12.15 点，跌幅 0.29%，至 4,115.68 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 3.90 点，跌幅 0.03%，至 13,299.74 点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 107.0 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日整个交易日的平均成交量为 106.0 亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，这也加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了 30% 和 45%，但在它们的两大支持者--特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）和方舟投资公司（Ark Invest）首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）--重申支持比特币之后，它们在下午的交易中大幅收复了跌幅。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商 Coinbase Global、矿商 Riot Blockchain 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.15 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 3 个 52 周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高和49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿个包裹将市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS 超过预期 0.04 美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司 L Brands 实现季度利润</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升，影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司新思科技超额完成第二季度财政目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129952039","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.The S&P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.Financial Report4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenueVictoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales riseCisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlookChip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192436129,"gmtCreate":1621221278561,"gmtModify":1634193269741,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","listText":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","text":"yes, market corrections are bound to happen!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192436129","repostId":"1199537372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199537372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621220749,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199537372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不必担心股市崩盘的 3 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199537372","media":"fool","summary":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number an","content":"<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周左右，由于就业人数出乎意料地低和通胀报告出乎意料地高，股市经历了一些艰难的日子。轻微的波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到去年市场大幅下跌后的历史高位估值和其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但 2020 年的崩盘，当时市场在大约一个月内损失了 33% 的价值，强化了一些有价值的投资教训。以下是不必担心股市再次崩盘的三个充分理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，当<b>标普500</b>收盘价为 3,386 点，截至 3 月 23 日收盘价为 2,257 点，市场价值下跌了 33%。这是一个惊人的下跌，代表了美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的下跌之一。但这也是有史以来最短的熊市之一，因为市场在 8 月 17 日收于 3,382 点时恢复了全部价值。在不到六个月的时间里，损失就被抹去了，甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>一年多后，截至 2021 年 5 月 13 日，标普500约为 4,100 辆。这比2020年3月23日的低点上涨了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.有很大的买入机会</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，这是有充分理由的：当别人贪婪时恐惧，当别人恐惧时贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找机会购买好公司，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>华特·迪士尼</b>从 2 月 19 日到 3 月 23 日，该股暴跌近 40%，当时跌至每股 85 美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股价如此低时买入，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将会大幅反弹。到 11 月，股价已回到每股 140 美元，回到崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股价目前约为 171 美元，是 2020 年 3 月低点的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做你的研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下滑时，你绝对应该将其视为一个机会，而不是一个问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3. 你是长期投资</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外面对一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢地走开，不要做任何轻率的事情。对短暂的轰鸣声或熊大的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，有无数次熊市，分类为市场下跌20%或以上，还有更多市场修正，下跌10%或以上。然而，尽管经历了所有的起伏，标普500在过去30年中的平均年回报率为8%。过去 10 年，截至 5 月 13 日，该基准的年化回报率约为 11.8%。一些股票，例如迪士尼，过去 10 年的年化回报率约为 17%，其表现比基准好得多。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人紧张，但如果你记住这三点，就不会那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不必担心股市崩盘的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>不必担心股市崩盘的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 11:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周左右，由于就业人数出乎意料地低和通胀报告出乎意料地高，股市经历了一些艰难的日子。轻微的波动没什么好担心的，但一些专家表示，考虑到去年市场大幅下跌后的历史高位估值和其他模式，更大、更持续的调整可能迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p>But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>但 2020 年的崩盘，当时市场在大约一个月内损失了 33% 的价值，强化了一些有价值的投资教训。以下是不必担心股市再次崩盘的三个充分理由。</blockquote></p><p>1. Patience will be rewarded</p><p><blockquote>1.耐心会有回报</blockquote></p><p>From Feb. 19, 2020, when the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年2月19日起，当<b>标普500</b>收盘价为 3,386 点，截至 3 月 23 日收盘价为 2,257 点，市场价值下跌了 33%。这是一个惊人的下跌，代表了美国历史上熊市中最陡峭、最快的下跌之一。但这也是有史以来最短的熊市之一，因为市场在 8 月 17 日收于 3,382 点时恢复了全部价值。在不到六个月的时间里，损失就被抹去了，甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p>Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&amp;P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.</p><p><blockquote>一年多后，截至 2021 年 5 月 13 日，标普500约为 4,100 辆。这比2020年3月23日的低点上涨了83%。因此，如果你在市场崩溃后恐慌并抛售股票，你不仅会锁定损失，还会错过耐心带来的收益。</blockquote></p><p>2. There are great buying opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.有很大的买入机会</blockquote></p><p>There's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --<b>Walt Disney</b>stock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特有一句名言经常被重复，这是有充分理由的：当别人贪婪时恐惧，当别人恐惧时贪婪。这是另一种说法：当其他人抛售股票时，寻找机会购买好公司，因为那时你会找到最好的交易。以去年三月为例--<b>华特·迪士尼</b>从 2 月 19 日到 3 月 23 日，该股暴跌近 40%，当时跌至每股 85 美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p>Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>聪明的投资者在迪士尼股价如此低时买入，因为他们知道这家媒体和娱乐巨头将会大幅反弹。到 11 月，股价已回到每股 140 美元，回到崩盘前的水平。迪士尼股价目前约为 171 美元，是 2020 年 3 月低点的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.</p><p><blockquote>现在，并不是所有的公司都像迪士尼一样强大，所以做你的研究很重要。但当你看到像迪士尼这样的老牌市场领导者下滑时，你绝对应该将其视为一个机会，而不是一个问题。</blockquote></p><p>3. You're invested for the long term</p><p><blockquote>3. 你是长期投资</blockquote></p><p>When bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>当熊市咆哮时，可能会很可怕。但是就像你在野外面对一只真正的熊一样，你慢慢地走开，不要做任何轻率的事情。对短暂的轰鸣声或熊大的咆哮做出反应是没有意义的，因为你应该进行长期投资。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&amp;P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，有无数次熊市，分类为市场下跌20%或以上，还有更多市场修正，下跌10%或以上。然而，尽管经历了所有的起伏，标普500在过去30年中的平均年回报率为8%。过去 10 年，截至 5 月 13 日，该基准的年化回报率约为 11.8%。一些股票，例如迪士尼，过去 10 年的年化回报率约为 17%，其表现比基准好得多。</blockquote></p><p>Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.</p><p><blockquote>市场调整可能会让人紧张，但如果你记住这三点，就不会那么令人担忧了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/16/3-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199537372","content_text":"The stock market had some rough days this past week or so, due to an unexpectedly low jobs number and an unexpectedly higher inflation report. A little volatility is nothing to worry about, but some experts suggest a larger, more sustainedcorrection could be looming, given the historically high valuations and other patterns following a major market drop like we had last year.But the crash of 2020, when the market lost 33% of its value in about a month, reinforced some valuable investing lessons. Here are three good reasons not to worry about another stock market crash.1. Patience will be rewardedFrom Feb. 19, 2020, when theS&P 500closed at 3,386, to March 23, when it closed at 2,257, the market lost 33% of its value. That is a staggering drop and represented one of the steepest, fastest declines into a bear market in U.S. history. But it was also one of the shortestbear marketsever, as the market recovered its full value by Aug. 17, when it closed at 3,382. In less than six months, the losses had been erased -- and then some.Just over a year later, as of May 13, 2021, the S&P 500 was at around 4,100. That's an 83% increase from the low on March 23, 2020. So, if you panicked and dumped stocks after that market meltdown, you would have not only locked in your losses, but also missed out on the gains that would have come with patience.2. There are great buying opportunitiesThere's a famous saying by Warren Buffett that is oft repeated, and for good reason: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. That's another way of saying: Look for opportunities to buy good companies when others are dumping stocks because that's when you will find the best deals. Take last March, for example --Walt Disneystock plummeted nearly 40% from Feb. 19 to March 23, when it hit a low of $85 per share.Smart investors jumped onDisneystock when it was trading that low, because they knew the media and entertainment giant would bounce back in a big way. By November, it had gotten back to $140 per share, returning to where it was pre-crash. Disney stock is currently trading at around $171, which is double its bottom in March 2020.Now, not all companies have come back as strong as Disney, so it is important to do your research. But when you see established market leaders like Disney drop, you should definitely view it as anopportunity, not a problem.3. You're invested for the long termWhen bear markets growl, it can be scary. But just like you would if you confronted a real bear in the wild, you walk away slowly and don't do anything rash. There is no point in reacting to a blip or a bear-size growl, because you should be investing for the long term.Over the years, there have been numerous bear markets, categorized as market drops of 20% or more, and many more market corrections, a drop of 10% or more. Yet the S&P 500, through all the dips and turns, has had an average annual return of 8% over the past 30 years. Over the last 10 years, the benchmark has returned about 11.8% on an annualized basis through May 13. Some stocks, like Disney, which has had an annualized return of about 17% over the past 10 years, have done a lot better than the benchmark.Market corrections can be hard on the nerves, but if you remember these three points, they are a lot less worrisome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190663785,"gmtCreate":1620616528147,"gmtModify":1634197658245,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"best to remain cautious...","listText":"best to remain cautious...","text":"best to remain cautious...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190663785","repostId":"2134860876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194415420,"gmtCreate":1621392426860,"gmtModify":1634189517103,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","listText":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","text":"will take quite a while for this industry to recover...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194415420","repostId":"1178395449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178395449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621385285,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178395449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的 17 周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178395449","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and co","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--半导体行业的短缺已经重创了汽车制造商和消费电子公司，现在情况变得更加糟糕，使全球经济复苏复杂化...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的 17 周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip Crisis Gets Even Worse as Wait Times Reach Record 17 Weeks<blockquote>等待时间达到创纪录的 17 周，芯片危机变得更加严重</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-19 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--半导体行业的短缺已经重创了汽车制造商和消费电子公司，现在情况变得更加糟糕，使全球经济复苏复杂化...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wait-chip-deliveries-increased-sign-220008762.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178395449","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Shortages in the semiconductor industry, which have already slammed automakers and consumer electronics companies, are getting even worse, complicating the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\nChip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.\n“All major product categories up considerably,” Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a note Tuesday, citing power management and analog chip lead times among others. “These were some of the largest increases since we started tracking the data.”\nChip shortages are rippling through industry after industry, preventing companies from shipping products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Automakers are now expected to lose out on $110 billion in sales this year, as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and others have to idle factories for lack of essential components.\nThe industry and its customers watch lead times as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand. A lengthening of the gap indicates that buyers of semiconductors are more willing to commit to future supply to avoid a recurrence of shortfalls. Analysts track these numbers as a harbinger of hoarding that can lead to the accumulation of too much inventory and sudden declines in orders.\n“Elevated lead times often compel ‘bad behavior’ at customers, including inventory accumulation, safety stock building and double ordering,” Rolland wrote. “These trends may have spurred a semiconductor industry in the early stages of over-shipment above true customer demand.”\nThe situation has been complicated by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Taiwan, a key location for chip manufacturing. The country has closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and shut many adult entertainment venues, museums and public facilities. While businesses and factories are operating, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.\nThe country is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which is the world’s most advanced chipmaker and counts Apple Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less glamorous -- but equally critical -- chips, such as display driver ICs that have been a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.\nThe current level of 17 weeks climbed from the 16-week level Rolland had previously said was the top of the “danger zone” and marks a fourth consecutive month of “sizable” expansion, he wrote.\nLead times for some products, such as power management chips, expanded by as much as four weeks in April from the prior month. Industrial microcontrollers order lead times extended by three weeks, some of the steepest increases Rolland has seen since he began tracking the numbers in 2017, he wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180674218,"gmtCreate":1623203981634,"gmtModify":1634035840157,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...","listText":"With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...","text":"With BEPS 2.0 and these changes to global tax, Singapore may lose its competitive advantage...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180674218","repostId":"2142296344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":851193147,"gmtCreate":1634877112785,"gmtModify":1634877112864,"author":{"id":"3560049684041165","authorId":"3560049684041165","name":"redbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4b9022f28e75fac7cef2adc0d76af8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560049684041165","idStr":"3560049684041165"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!","listText":"as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!","text":"as with any stock, it’s best to invest carefully!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851193147","repostId":"1107568912","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}