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2024-03-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 垃圾

2021-06-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$冲起来吧

2021-02-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$马斯克是不是有点飘了

2021-07-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$吊起来，破700

2020-11-03

$Zoom(ZM)$跌！狠狠跌

2024-10-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

2020-09-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@聚富:$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天就算砸，也能在400以上

2024-11-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 川普上位的话，特斯拉300只是起点

2024-10-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 感觉又被控的死死的了

2024-10-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

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垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283491259633960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":212663433646296,"gmtCreate":1692959562267,"gmtModify":1692959563750,"author":{"id":"3560319349462087","authorId":"3560319349462087","name":"买买买哈","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560319349462087","authorIdStr":"3560319349462087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ryufu","listText":"ryufu","text":"ryufu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/212663433646296","repostId":"2362912845","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2362912845","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1692949207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2362912845?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-25 15:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"杰克逊霍尔年会重磅来袭！鲍威尔未开口，华尔街已“带节奏”定价鹰派预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2362912845","media":"智通财经","summary":"在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会之前，一个抽象的利率指标主导了全球交易平台的讨论：那就是投资者想知道美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔是否会介入中性利率预期，如果他介入，美国国债收益率将进一步上行，全球股票市场估值将再临重压。然而，华尔街目前共识为鲍威尔很有可能发表意料之外的鹰派言论，这一点从有着“全球资产定价之锚”之称的10年期美债收益率、以及短期限的美债收益率走势，以及周四美股三大指数大跌就能看出。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会之前，一个抽象的利率指标主导了全球交易平台的讨论：那就是投资者想知道美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔是否会介入中性利率预期，如果他介入，美国国债收益率将进一步上行，全球股票市场估值将再临重压。</p><p>富达国际(Fidelity International)、Jupiter Asset Management 和对冲基金Blue Edge Advisors 都在思考中性利率(也被称为R*)预期上调所带来的负面影响。</p><p>这是一个理论性质的利率水平，在这个水平，利率既不会刺激也不会限制经济。如果美联储想要遏制价格飙升——就像它现在所做的那样——它就会把基准利率提高并维系在这一中性水平之上。虽然经济学家将R*定义为经通胀调整后的指标，但它广义上也是央行名义政策设定的简称。</p><p>在周四，一些投资者在有着“AI信仰支撑力量”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)公布强劲无比的业绩后选择获利了结美股，并且将注意力从英伟达的井喷式业绩转移到美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行研讨会上所发表的讲话，鲍威尔的讲话可能会改变市场对美联储政策走向的预期，即他所发表的言论极有可能重设市场对于美联储利率政策的预期。如今市场普遍预计美联储加息周期完结，但是对“Higher for longer”的担忧情绪升温——预计高利率将至少持续至明年3月。</p><p><strong>然而，华尔街目前共识为鲍威尔很有可能发表意料之外的鹰派言论，这一点从有着“全球资产定价之锚”之称的10年期美债收益率、以及短期限的美债收益率走势，以及周四美股三大指数大跌就能看出。10年期美国国债收益率持续位于2007年11月以来的新高，这在很大程度上暗示市场的降息押注逐渐退场，取而代之的是市场预期鲍威尔将透露：利率将长期维持在高位，且有可能释放更鹰派的消息，其中就包括释放加息周期未完结的预期，以及有可能重置中性利率预期。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M2R.AU\">Miramar</a> Capital创始人Max Wasserman表示：“周四的市场表现有点像提前卖消息。英伟达周三盘后的业绩数据非常好，但是，市场已经反映了这一点——即公布财报前股价暴涨。<strong>投资者可能意识到，我们已经实现巨额获利，所以在鲍威尔发言前最好获利了结。当然，如果美联储这次没有泼冷水，他们可能马上回归。</strong>”</p><p><strong>若中性利率预期上调，意味着“全球资产定价之锚”还要升</strong></p><p>因此，任何向上修正的暗示都有可能波及全球市场，迫使人们重新评估有着“全球资产定价之锚”称号的10年期美国国债收益率的公允价值可能落在哪里。更复杂的是:对经济最有利的利率水平未必对市场最有利，有可能扰乱金融体系。</p><p>“对大多数交易员来说，R*就像人们的阑尾——被认为与日常生活无关，直到它突然爆发，让你痛苦地关心起来，”来自Blue Edge的Merlion Fund经理Calvin Yeoh表示。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5ad55d3544641a659c44caf336ac32\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p><strong>自2019年以来，美联储政策制定者对长期政策利率的中位数预期为2.5%——基本上是他们的中性指标——低于8年前的3.5%。Yeoh表示，推高中性利率可能会加剧有关趋势通胀率目前是否更高，以及投资者是否应该要求更高的溢价来购买较长期美债，即不断推高10年期美债收益率的讨论话题。</strong></p><p>有着“老债王”之称的比尔·格罗斯(Bill Gross)近日表示，美国债务被市场“高估”了，格罗斯预计，<strong>10年期美国国债收益率的公允价值约为4.5%，</strong>这预示着“全球资产定价之锚”后续可能还有上行空间。</p><p>在周五亚洲市场的交易时间段，“全球资产定价之锚”稳定在4.24%左右。10年期美国国债收益率在本周二盘中曾短暂升破4.36%，续创2007年11月以来的新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567c9e1c0a6c65c01cb9c02e73c32377\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p>从理论层面来看，<strong>10年期美债收益率相当于股票市场中重要估值模型——DCF估值模型中分母端的r指标</strong>，分析师们一般以10年期美债收益率为基准设定r值，在其他指标未发生明显变化的情况下，分母水平越高，股票，尤其是风险较高的科技股等风险资产的估值自然也越低。</p><p>尽管市场议论纷纷，<strong>但许多美联储观察人士认为，鲍威尔周五讲话时将回避这个敏感的话题。今年3月，他曾对议员们表示：“老实说，我们不知道“中性利率”在哪。”在2018年，在他作为美联储主席的首次杰克逊霍尔演讲中，他强调了对这些长期变量的估测存在固有的不确定性。</strong></p><p>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席约翰•<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>(John Williams)在今年5月表示，疫情并未对R*造成太大的影响。市场观察人士观点各异，其中上调中性利率的逻辑包括:美国经济近期表现出弹性、预算赤字上升、储蓄可能减少、在减少碳排放方面投入更多资金，以及人工智能等技术进步有可能提高生产率。</p><p><strong>华尔街对于中性利率的预期过高了？分析师意见不一</strong></p><p>JBWere Ltd.首席投资官Sally Auld表示:“<strong>如果美联储倾向于认为R*可能高于目前市场预期的2.5%，那么其主要含义将是：政策的限制性不像我们之前假设的那样强。因此，这意味着市场对美联储将在明年年底前降息100个基点的预期可以说是完全错误的。”</strong></p><p>来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的美国国债策略主管Jay Barry表示，预期鲍威尔在会议上可能将提出更高的中性利率，进而在本月推高收益率的华尔街交易员可能会感到非常失望。</p><p>美国国债策略主管Barry在一份最新报告中写道:“<strong>我们认为，鲍威尔的言论不太可能预示着9月份FOMC会议上对长期利率预期进行更大范围的调整，因为鲍威尔主席一再讨论美联储货币政策具备限制性</strong>。”“以过去的变化历史为指导依据，很难断定鲍威尔周五会就这个话题发表积极的声明，尽管最终的天平很有可能朝着这个方向倾斜。”</p><p>来自Jupiter Asset Management的Harry Richards表示，对于权衡美国国债投资前景的投资者来说，密切关注通胀数据等有形因素要重要得多。</p><p>“这确实是一些经济学家想要了解的事情。通常情况下，当一些事情开始出错时，你就会发现这一点。”Richards在谈到中性利率时说。”<strong>但对我们来说，比R*这个有点虚无缥缈的抽象指标更重要的是，试图理解GDP和通胀的关键驱动因素是什么。</strong></p><p>另一个潜在的具体指标是美国通胀保值债券的市场订单量。周四30年期TIPS标售显示需求中等，这批债券的成交收益率高于投标结束前的收益率，这表明价格疲软，说明投资者对这批债券的兴趣不高，不过与2月份的前一次拍卖相比，这次的投标数量要多一些。</p><p>从其中一个指标方面来看，<strong>市场已经押注美联储在中性利率方面落后于美债收益率曲线。纽约联储衡量通胀调整后的R*的指标徘徊在0.6%左右，然而基于掉期的重要代理指标——经过通胀指标调整后的5年期收益率——已跃升至1%以上。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf51d55133ee03762bbd1fa011cd607d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p>不过，对于一些投资机构来说，中性利率可能上升的前景并没有削弱美国国债的投资吸引力。</p><p>全球一些最大规模的资产管理公司正青睐美债，尽管对长期借贷成本上升的担忧抹去了美国国债多头今年的绝大部分价格端收益。抢购固定收益证券资产的富达国际(Fidelity International)表示，即使中性利率被修正，美国国债仍具有吸引力。</p><p>基金经理George Efstathopoulos在谈到30年期收益率时表示:“即使利率变动，4.5%或4.4%的美国国债收益率也能提供足够的收益率缓冲空间，相对于潜在修正后的R*利率有一定的期限溢价。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>杰克逊霍尔年会重磅来袭！鲍威尔未开口，华尔街已“带节奏”定价鹰派预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n杰克逊霍尔年会重磅来袭！鲍威尔未开口，华尔街已“带节奏”定价鹰派预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-25 15:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/982383.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会之前，一个抽象的利率指标主导了全球交易平台的讨论：那就是投资者想知道美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔是否会介入中性利率预期，如果他介入，美国国债收益率将进一步上行，全球股票市场估值将再临重压。富达国际(Fidelity International)、Jupiter Asset Management 和对冲基金Blue Edge Advisors 都在思考中性利率(也被称为R*)预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/982383.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/982383.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2362912845","content_text":"在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会之前，一个抽象的利率指标主导了全球交易平台的讨论：那就是投资者想知道美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔是否会介入中性利率预期，如果他介入，美国国债收益率将进一步上行，全球股票市场估值将再临重压。富达国际(Fidelity International)、Jupiter Asset Management 和对冲基金Blue Edge Advisors 都在思考中性利率(也被称为R*)预期上调所带来的负面影响。这是一个理论性质的利率水平，在这个水平，利率既不会刺激也不会限制经济。如果美联储想要遏制价格飙升——就像它现在所做的那样——它就会把基准利率提高并维系在这一中性水平之上。虽然经济学家将R*定义为经通胀调整后的指标，但它广义上也是央行名义政策设定的简称。在周四，一些投资者在有着“AI信仰支撑力量”的英伟达(NVDA.US)公布强劲无比的业绩后选择获利了结美股，并且将注意力从英伟达的井喷式业绩转移到美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行研讨会上所发表的讲话，鲍威尔的讲话可能会改变市场对美联储政策走向的预期，即他所发表的言论极有可能重设市场对于美联储利率政策的预期。如今市场普遍预计美联储加息周期完结，但是对“Higher for longer”的担忧情绪升温——预计高利率将至少持续至明年3月。然而，华尔街目前共识为鲍威尔很有可能发表意料之外的鹰派言论，这一点从有着“全球资产定价之锚”之称的10年期美债收益率、以及短期限的美债收益率走势，以及周四美股三大指数大跌就能看出。10年期美国国债收益率持续位于2007年11月以来的新高，这在很大程度上暗示市场的降息押注逐渐退场，取而代之的是市场预期鲍威尔将透露：利率将长期维持在高位，且有可能释放更鹰派的消息，其中就包括释放加息周期未完结的预期，以及有可能重置中性利率预期。Miramar Capital创始人Max Wasserman表示：“周四的市场表现有点像提前卖消息。英伟达周三盘后的业绩数据非常好，但是，市场已经反映了这一点——即公布财报前股价暴涨。投资者可能意识到，我们已经实现巨额获利，所以在鲍威尔发言前最好获利了结。当然，如果美联储这次没有泼冷水，他们可能马上回归。”若中性利率预期上调，意味着“全球资产定价之锚”还要升因此，任何向上修正的暗示都有可能波及全球市场，迫使人们重新评估有着“全球资产定价之锚”称号的10年期美国国债收益率的公允价值可能落在哪里。更复杂的是:对经济最有利的利率水平未必对市场最有利，有可能扰乱金融体系。“对大多数交易员来说，R*就像人们的阑尾——被认为与日常生活无关，直到它突然爆发，让你痛苦地关心起来，”来自Blue Edge的Merlion Fund经理Calvin Yeoh表示。自2019年以来，美联储政策制定者对长期政策利率的中位数预期为2.5%——基本上是他们的中性指标——低于8年前的3.5%。Yeoh表示，推高中性利率可能会加剧有关趋势通胀率目前是否更高，以及投资者是否应该要求更高的溢价来购买较长期美债，即不断推高10年期美债收益率的讨论话题。有着“老债王”之称的比尔·格罗斯(Bill Gross)近日表示，美国债务被市场“高估”了，格罗斯预计，10年期美国国债收益率的公允价值约为4.5%，这预示着“全球资产定价之锚”后续可能还有上行空间。在周五亚洲市场的交易时间段，“全球资产定价之锚”稳定在4.24%左右。10年期美国国债收益率在本周二盘中曾短暂升破4.36%，续创2007年11月以来的新高。从理论层面来看，10年期美债收益率相当于股票市场中重要估值模型——DCF估值模型中分母端的r指标，分析师们一般以10年期美债收益率为基准设定r值，在其他指标未发生明显变化的情况下，分母水平越高，股票，尤其是风险较高的科技股等风险资产的估值自然也越低。尽管市场议论纷纷，但许多美联储观察人士认为，鲍威尔周五讲话时将回避这个敏感的话题。今年3月，他曾对议员们表示：“老实说，我们不知道“中性利率”在哪。”在2018年，在他作为美联储主席的首次杰克逊霍尔演讲中，他强调了对这些长期变量的估测存在固有的不确定性。FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席约翰•威廉姆斯(John Williams)在今年5月表示，疫情并未对R*造成太大的影响。市场观察人士观点各异，其中上调中性利率的逻辑包括:美国经济近期表现出弹性、预算赤字上升、储蓄可能减少、在减少碳排放方面投入更多资金，以及人工智能等技术进步有可能提高生产率。华尔街对于中性利率的预期过高了？分析师意见不一JBWere Ltd.首席投资官Sally Auld表示:“如果美联储倾向于认为R*可能高于目前市场预期的2.5%，那么其主要含义将是：政策的限制性不像我们之前假设的那样强。因此，这意味着市场对美联储将在明年年底前降息100个基点的预期可以说是完全错误的。”来自摩根大通的美国国债策略主管Jay Barry表示，预期鲍威尔在会议上可能将提出更高的中性利率，进而在本月推高收益率的华尔街交易员可能会感到非常失望。美国国债策略主管Barry在一份最新报告中写道:“我们认为，鲍威尔的言论不太可能预示着9月份FOMC会议上对长期利率预期进行更大范围的调整，因为鲍威尔主席一再讨论美联储货币政策具备限制性。”“以过去的变化历史为指导依据，很难断定鲍威尔周五会就这个话题发表积极的声明，尽管最终的天平很有可能朝着这个方向倾斜。”来自Jupiter Asset Management的Harry Richards表示，对于权衡美国国债投资前景的投资者来说，密切关注通胀数据等有形因素要重要得多。“这确实是一些经济学家想要了解的事情。通常情况下，当一些事情开始出错时，你就会发现这一点。”Richards在谈到中性利率时说。”但对我们来说，比R*这个有点虚无缥缈的抽象指标更重要的是，试图理解GDP和通胀的关键驱动因素是什么。另一个潜在的具体指标是美国通胀保值债券的市场订单量。周四30年期TIPS标售显示需求中等，这批债券的成交收益率高于投标结束前的收益率，这表明价格疲软，说明投资者对这批债券的兴趣不高，不过与2月份的前一次拍卖相比，这次的投标数量要多一些。从其中一个指标方面来看，市场已经押注美联储在中性利率方面落后于美债收益率曲线。纽约联储衡量通胀调整后的R*的指标徘徊在0.6%左右，然而基于掉期的重要代理指标——经过通胀指标调整后的5年期收益率——已跃升至1%以上。不过，对于一些投资机构来说，中性利率可能上升的前景并没有削弱美国国债的投资吸引力。全球一些最大规模的资产管理公司正青睐美债，尽管对长期借贷成本上升的担忧抹去了美国国债多头今年的绝大部分价格端收益。抢购固定收益证券资产的富达国际(Fidelity International)表示，即使中性利率被修正，美国国债仍具有吸引力。基金经理George 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