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Tonofash

Tonofash

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5粉丝

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0勋章

2021-04-16

Long coin

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2021-02-21

Long btc!

@AI科技巨头每日跟踪:市值破万亿，ARK押注比特币的姿势

2021-07-05

Long amzn

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2021-03-16

Long pltr

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2021-02-19

Long pltr!

Palantir stock slumps as lockup expiration opens 80% of shares for trading<blockquote>由于禁售期到期，Palantir 80%的股票开始交易，股价暴跌</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Wow

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2021-06-10

Long arkk!

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2021-07-20

Buy!

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2021-07-09

Nice

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2021-07-03

Nice

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2021-06-23

Wow

Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote>

2021-05-26

Long amzn!

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2021-04-23

Long btc!

Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示，大摩比特币基金两周内撤资2940万美元</blockquote>

2021-02-27

Cool!

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2021-02-09

Forgot to monitor TWTR stock after it fell!

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2021-07-21

Nice

Jeff Bezos After Blue Origin Flight Says We Need To Move All Heavy, Polluting Industries To Space<blockquote>蓝色起源飞行后的杰夫·贝索斯表示，我们需要将所有重型、污染性工业转移到太空</blockquote>

2021-06-20

Wow

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2021-06-11

Long s&p500

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2021-06-05

Long baba!

Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>

2021-06-01

Nice!!

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去老虎APP查看更多动态

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to test option strategy function","listText":"Apply to test option strategy function","text":"Apply to test option strategy function","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813114194","repostId":"144031650","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":144031650,"gmtCreate":1626251922967,"gmtModify":1637045640706,"author":{"id":"3527667588142897","authorId":"3527667588142897","name":"小虎产品经理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6704bebf28358e0d9c638e765403bd0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667588142897","idStr":"3527667588142897"},"themes":[],"title":"You Can Apply to Join the  Option Strategy Testing Activity Now !","htmlText":"The covered call and covered put of US options will soon be available for testing ! If you want to join this testing activity, please leave a message under this post. The message could be \"Apply to test option strategy function.\" We will register for you weekly. After the application is approved, a message will be sent to notify you in the APP. What are Covered Calls &amp; Covered Puts ？ We currently offer two Option Strategies as follows: Covered Call: A combination of 1 lot short position in a call option and 100 shares long position in the same underlying U.S. stock. Covered Put: A combination of 1 lot short position in a put option and 100 shares short position in the same underlying U.S. stock. If your newly held options or stocks can constitute an Option Strategy with your existing p","listText":"The covered call and covered put of US options will soon be available for testing ! If you want to join this testing activity, please leave a message under this post. The message could be \"Apply to test option strategy function.\" We will register for you weekly. 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If your newly held options or stocks can constitute an Option Strategy with your existing p","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144031650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176049417,"gmtCreate":1626849087939,"gmtModify":1631889572468,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176049417","repostId":"1134720097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134720097","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626848655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134720097?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jeff Bezos After Blue Origin Flight Says We Need To Move All Heavy, Polluting Industries To Space<blockquote>蓝色起源飞行后的杰夫·贝索斯表示，我们需要将所有重型、污染性工业转移到太空</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134720097","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all hea","content":"<p><div> Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all heavy and polluting industries need to be moved to space in a bid to conserve the beauty of Earth. What...</p><p><blockquote><div>亚马逊公司董事长杰夫·贝索斯周二在完成首次太空飞行后表示，为了保护地球的美丽，所有重工业和污染工业都需要转移到太空。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jeff Bezos After Blue Origin Flight Says We Need To Move All Heavy, Polluting Industries To Space<blockquote>蓝色起源飞行后的杰夫·贝索斯表示，我们需要将所有重型、污染性工业转移到太空</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJeff Bezos After Blue Origin Flight Says We Need To Move All Heavy, Polluting Industries To Space<blockquote>蓝色起源飞行后的杰夫·贝索斯表示，我们需要将所有重型、污染性工业转移到太空</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all heavy and polluting industries need to be moved to space in a bid to conserve the beauty of Earth. What...</p><p><blockquote><div>亚马逊公司董事长杰夫·贝索斯周二在完成首次太空飞行后表示，为了保护地球的美丽，所有重工业和污染工业都需要转移到太空。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","TSLA":"特斯拉","SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134720097","content_text":"Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all heavy and polluting industries need to be moved to space in a bid to conserve the beauty of Earth.\nWhat Happened:The world’s richest person told MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle that it will take decades to achieve such a feat but needs a start somewhere in order to combat climate change and keep Earth \"as this beautiful gem of a planet that it is.\"\nBezos on Tuesday blasted his way into space on the first crewed flight of New Shepard, the rocket built by his space-tourism venture Blue Origin.\nBezos said he’d love to fly to space again but would let others do it first. HefoundedBlue Origin in 2000 in hopes of lowering the cost of space travel. \"We have to build a road to space so that our kids and their kids can build the future,\" Bezos said on how what he experienced matters to Americans in general.\nWhy It Matters:The billionaire race to space is being seen as a key step towards commercial spaceflight as Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and SpaceX are all hoping to eventually operate profitable commercial spaceflight businesses.\nBezos' flight to space followed Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc founder Sir Richard Branson’s successful flight to space on July 11.\nSpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who also leads Tesla Inc has plans to send large rockets to space and dreams of eventually colonizing Mars. SpaceX isscheduledto launch a private astronaut mission in September.\nPrice Action:AMZN shares tumbled on Tuesday after the flight but recovered to close 0.66% higher at 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23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180651681","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder\nMonetary ","content":"<p><b>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Monetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的货币政策正在积极推动周期性增长的快速反弹，甚至迎接通胀的上行。这与1994年老一代政策制定者面对类似周期性反弹的方式形成了鲜明对比。当时，政策制定者迅速而积极地抑制周期性扩张，特别是通胀上升。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Someone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免自己犯下重大政策错误。透明度和可预测性的制度僵化使得宽松货币政策持续的时间超过了所需的时间。与1995年老一代政策制定者在1994年面临类似情景时设计的软着陆相比，目前的做法使经济走上了硬着陆的道路。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2021 vs. 1994</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>2021年与1994年</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的经济与1994年有很多相同的特征。随着不利因素的消退，这两年都出现了快速增长和价格压力。2021年，强劲反弹反映了经济重新开放以及宽松货币和财政刺激的帮助。1994年反弹的催化剂来自宽松货币政策的延长以及家庭去杠杆化、企业重组和国防削减的结束。</blockquote></p><p> 2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.</p><p><blockquote>继上一年创纪录的下降之后，2021年的快速增长速度更快、范围更广。普遍估计2021年实际GDP增长率在6%至7%之间，而1994年的增长率为4%。但这两年最大的区别是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Core consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.<b>Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.</b></p><p><blockquote>2021年前五个月，核心消费者通胀率的年化增长率为5%，而通胀率在1994年达到3%的峰值。管道通货膨胀的速度是它的三倍多。<b>中间材料的核心价格在过去一年中上涨了17%，而1994年的峰值为5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> The current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.</p><p><blockquote>当代政策制定者认为，产品市场的供需将在某个时候“自动修正”。这意味着，随着企业提高生产水平以满足更高水平的需求，而不会对经济造成任何干扰，管道通胀压力将消失。当然，在现实中，一两个产品市场可以重新调整。但是，考虑多种产品市场是天真的，住房和服务经济的许多部分可以同时这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.<b>A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.</b></p><p><blockquote>透明度和可预测性的制度僵化阻止了政策制定者结束所有人都认为不再需要的住房资产购买计划。这是实施货币政策的正确方式吗？仅仅因为政策制定者没有告诉或告知金融市场它计划缩减其资产购买计划，在完全透明之前它不能这样做。这毫无意义。<b>一项助长不可持续的需求激增和房价上涨的政策今天是错误的，明天就会更加错误。</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>1994年，老一代政策制定者将强劲的订单和材料价格上涨视为公司需要更多库存来保护生产计划的证据。2021年已经有企业因零部件短缺而不得不减产的例子。抑制最终需求被视为打破和缩短通胀周期性上升的必要条件。因此，1994年政策制定者连续12个月提高官方利率，将官方利率从3%提高到6%，翻了一番。官方利率的逐步上升带来了1995年的软着陆。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e215035587498373a49afd2e7a1eb321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"372\"><b>The current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome</b>. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前零官方利率和资产购买的政策立场使经济走上了一条不同的道路，硬着陆的可能性要大得多</b>美联储需要有人尽快发声，因为在快速增长和物价压力上升的背景下，创纪录的货币宽松政策不再是必要的，在此过程中，经济将走上不可持续的道路，结局将很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSomeone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 23:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Monetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的货币政策正在积极推动周期性增长的快速反弹，甚至迎接通胀的上行。这与1994年老一代政策制定者面对类似周期性反弹的方式形成了鲜明对比。当时，政策制定者迅速而积极地抑制周期性扩张，特别是通胀上升。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Someone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免自己犯下重大政策错误。透明度和可预测性的制度僵化使得宽松货币政策持续的时间超过了所需的时间。与1995年老一代政策制定者在1994年面临类似情景时设计的软着陆相比，目前的做法使经济走上了硬着陆的道路。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2021 vs. 1994</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>2021年与1994年</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的经济与1994年有很多相同的特征。随着不利因素的消退，这两年都出现了快速增长和价格压力。2021年，强劲反弹反映了经济重新开放以及宽松货币和财政刺激的帮助。1994年反弹的催化剂来自宽松货币政策的延长以及家庭去杠杆化、企业重组和国防削减的结束。</blockquote></p><p> 2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.</p><p><blockquote>继上一年创纪录的下降之后，2021年的快速增长速度更快、范围更广。普遍估计2021年实际GDP增长率在6%至7%之间，而1994年的增长率为4%。但这两年最大的区别是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Core consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.<b>Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.</b></p><p><blockquote>2021年前五个月，核心消费者通胀率的年化增长率为5%，而通胀率在1994年达到3%的峰值。管道通货膨胀的速度是它的三倍多。<b>中间材料的核心价格在过去一年中上涨了17%，而1994年的峰值为5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> The current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.</p><p><blockquote>当代政策制定者认为，产品市场的供需将在某个时候“自动修正”。这意味着，随着企业提高生产水平以满足更高水平的需求，而不会对经济造成任何干扰，管道通胀压力将消失。当然，在现实中，一两个产品市场可以重新调整。但是，考虑多种产品市场是天真的，住房和服务经济的许多部分可以同时这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.<b>A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.</b></p><p><blockquote>透明度和可预测性的制度僵化阻止了政策制定者结束所有人都认为不再需要的住房资产购买计划。这是实施货币政策的正确方式吗？仅仅因为政策制定者没有告诉或告知金融市场它计划缩减其资产购买计划，在完全透明之前它不能这样做。这毫无意义。<b>一项助长不可持续的需求激增和房价上涨的政策今天是错误的，明天就会更加错误。</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>1994年，老一代政策制定者将强劲的订单和材料价格上涨视为公司需要更多库存来保护生产计划的证据。2021年已经有企业因零部件短缺而不得不减产的例子。抑制最终需求被视为打破和缩短通胀周期性上升的必要条件。因此，1994年政策制定者连续12个月提高官方利率，将官方利率从3%提高到6%，翻了一番。官方利率的逐步上升带来了1995年的软着陆。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e215035587498373a49afd2e7a1eb321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"372\"><b>The current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome</b>. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前零官方利率和资产购买的政策立场使经济走上了一条不同的道路，硬着陆的可能性要大得多</b>美联储需要有人尽快发声，因为在快速增长和物价压力上升的背景下，创纪录的货币宽松政策不再是必要的，在此过程中，经济将走上不可持续的道路，结局将很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someone-fed-needs-speak-avoid-committing-major-policy-error?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someone-fed-needs-speak-avoid-committing-major-policy-error?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180651681","content_text":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder\nMonetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.\nSomeone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.\n2021 vs. 1994\nThe economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.\n2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.\nCore consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.\nThe current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.\nInstitutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.\nIn 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.\nThe current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164334297,"gmtCreate":1624170859719,"gmtModify":1634009828197,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164334297","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162777379,"gmtCreate":1624078403191,"gmtModify":1634010950075,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162777379","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160248258,"gmtCreate":1623800579174,"gmtModify":1634028109183,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160248258","repostId":"1147269544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147269544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770166,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147269544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147269544","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he p","content":"<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些被繁荣所青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年re：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断“<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些被繁荣所青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年re：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断“<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147269544","content_text":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically itshyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes nextin a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that:\n\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"\n#ParadigmShift\n\"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"\n\"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.\n\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"\n\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"\n\"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"\n\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"\n\"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #robinhooddown\n\"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single  newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"\n\"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"\nHis punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"2010-2021: Gestation\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"\nAnd, as if reading from the same playbook,Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"and if Jay Powell\n\n“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"\n\nAll of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...\n\n\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.#FlyingPigs360\"\n\nIn other words:\"Brace!\"\nSo what are you going to do about it?\nTudor Jones had some simple advice: \"buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186832281,"gmtCreate":1623483512243,"gmtModify":1634032495475,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3565750347603038\">@GraceYap</a>:Inflation fears are&nbsp;already priced in","listText":"Yes//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3565750347603038\">@GraceYap</a>:Inflation fears are&nbsp;already priced in","text":"Yes//@GraceYap:Inflation fears are already priced in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186832281","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181162060,"gmtCreate":1623379153950,"gmtModify":1634033979411,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long s&amp;p500","listText":"Long s&amp;p500","text":"Long 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btc!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360213087","repostId":"360130549","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":360130549,"gmtCreate":1613867012581,"gmtModify":1613875195623,"author":{"id":"3573372817382282","authorId":"3573372817382282","name":"AI科技巨头每日跟踪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff5e470fc1010de3d82d46f16f1cac0","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573372817382282","idStr":"3573372817382282"},"themes":[],"title":"市值破万亿，ARK押注比特币的姿势","htmlText":"【摘要】本文总结了木头姐近期对比特币的最新看法，并通过加密货币分析师Murad Mahmudov的一张“比特币发展历程图”解释了比特币未来可能承担的“价值存储”、“支付工具”和“价值尺度”等货币功能。同时，文章还详细总结了ARK押注比特币的几个核心标的，以及在近一周的操盘情况。本周三，木头姐接受了CNBC的采访，她再次提到：“特斯拉购买比特币的行为着实让她惊讶，如果有10%的企业（《2021大创想》报告中是标普500企业）将比特币作为现金储备的一种方式，单纯这个举动就可以让比特币的价格再增加20万美元，虽然这不会那么快实现。”她指出：“随着比特币市值突破1万亿美元，大机构开始入场，美国证监会新主席Gary Gensler十分看好区块链技术，美国比特币ETF也有望获批。”事实上，在发行比特币ETF方面，加拿大已经捷足先登。当地时间周四，北美首只追踪比特币的ETF开始在多伦多交易所交易。当天成交量超过965万份，位居多伦多交易所当日所有品种成交量前10。首日成交额高达1.65亿美元，占加拿大股市日均成交额104亿美元的1.6%，远高于加拿大新上市ETF首日的平均成交量。这只ETF名为Purpose Bitcoin ETF，代码BTCC。由加拿大资管公司Purpose Investments推出。东方港湾但斌2月18日在微博上披露，“已购买1％的比特币ETF基金，虽然有点晚，但想通了就践行！希望保持对新生事物的好奇心！”。他还指出，“这两天思考了一下比特币，过去我认为任何一个国家的政府都不可能让它合法，就算美国也不会愿意失去‘铸币税’。但随着特斯拉允许比特币作为支付‘货币’，它的价值可能会被提升。全世界比特币的总数为2100万枚，截止2020年7月13日已经挖出了1585万枚，如果长期持有者增多，或者类似特斯拉这样的公司不断加入，达到ARK‘牛市女皇’说的40万美元是非常可能的","listText":"【摘要】本文总结了木头姐近期对比特币的最新看法，并通过加密货币分析师Murad Mahmudov的一张“比特币发展历程图”解释了比特币未来可能承担的“价值存储”、“支付工具”和“价值尺度”等货币功能。同时，文章还详细总结了ARK押注比特币的几个核心标的，以及在近一周的操盘情况。本周三，木头姐接受了CNBC的采访，她再次提到：“特斯拉购买比特币的行为着实让她惊讶，如果有10%的企业（《2021大创想》报告中是标普500企业）将比特币作为现金储备的一种方式，单纯这个举动就可以让比特币的价格再增加20万美元，虽然这不会那么快实现。”她指出：“随着比特币市值突破1万亿美元，大机构开始入场，美国证监会新主席Gary Gensler十分看好区块链技术，美国比特币ETF也有望获批。”事实上，在发行比特币ETF方面，加拿大已经捷足先登。当地时间周四，北美首只追踪比特币的ETF开始在多伦多交易所交易。当天成交量超过965万份，位居多伦多交易所当日所有品种成交量前10。首日成交额高达1.65亿美元，占加拿大股市日均成交额104亿美元的1.6%，远高于加拿大新上市ETF首日的平均成交量。这只ETF名为Purpose Bitcoin ETF，代码BTCC。由加拿大资管公司Purpose Investments推出。东方港湾但斌2月18日在微博上披露，“已购买1％的比特币ETF基金，虽然有点晚，但想通了就践行！希望保持对新生事物的好奇心！”。他还指出，“这两天思考了一下比特币，过去我认为任何一个国家的政府都不可能让它合法，就算美国也不会愿意失去‘铸币税’。但随着特斯拉允许比特币作为支付‘货币’，它的价值可能会被提升。全世界比特币的总数为2100万枚，截止2020年7月13日已经挖出了1585万枚，如果长期持有者增多，或者类似特斯拉这样的公司不断加入，达到ARK‘牛市女皇’说的40万美元是非常可能的","text":"【摘要】本文总结了木头姐近期对比特币的最新看法，并通过加密货币分析师Murad Mahmudov的一张“比特币发展历程图”解释了比特币未来可能承担的“价值存储”、“支付工具”和“价值尺度”等货币功能。同时，文章还详细总结了ARK押注比特币的几个核心标的，以及在近一周的操盘情况。本周三，木头姐接受了CNBC的采访，她再次提到：“特斯拉购买比特币的行为着实让她惊讶，如果有10%的企业（《2021大创想》报告中是标普500企业）将比特币作为现金储备的一种方式，单纯这个举动就可以让比特币的价格再增加20万美元，虽然这不会那么快实现。”她指出：“随着比特币市值突破1万亿美元，大机构开始入场，美国证监会新主席Gary Gensler十分看好区块链技术，美国比特币ETF也有望获批。”事实上，在发行比特币ETF方面，加拿大已经捷足先登。当地时间周四，北美首只追踪比特币的ETF开始在多伦多交易所交易。当天成交量超过965万份，位居多伦多交易所当日所有品种成交量前10。首日成交额高达1.65亿美元，占加拿大股市日均成交额104亿美元的1.6%，远高于加拿大新上市ETF首日的平均成交量。这只ETF名为Purpose Bitcoin ETF，代码BTCC。由加拿大资管公司Purpose 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pltr!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387924885","repostId":"1107899645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107899645","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613704060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107899645?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir stock slumps as lockup expiration opens 80% of shares for trading<blockquote>由于禁售期到期，Palantir 80%的股票开始交易，股价暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107899645","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Palantir Technologies Inc. 's direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which ","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 's&nbsp;direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which expires today. Insiders were only allowed to sell 20%of their shares in the listing, which means the remaining 80% are open for trading today. Palantir shares aredown 5.8%pre-market.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">帕兰提尔技术公司。</a>9月份的直接上市不同寻常地包括一个禁售期，该禁售期将于今天到期。内部人士只被允许出售20%的上市股份，这意味着剩余的80%今天开放交易。Palantir股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has faced valuation concerns with shares closing yesterday at about 274% above its direct listing reference price.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临估值担忧，股价昨天收盘价较其直接上市参考价高出约274%。</blockquote></p><p> Soros Fund Management will continue exiting its position that amounted to&nbsp; 18.46M shares as of November, when the fund said it regretted the investment and \"does not approve of Palantir's business practices.\"</p><p><blockquote>索罗斯基金管理公司将继续退出截至11月的1846万股头寸，当时该基金表示对这项投资感到遗憾，并且“不认可Palantir的商业行为”。</blockquote></p><p> The fund said at the time it had sold all the shares it could and would keep selling,when permitted.</p><p><blockquote>该基金当时表示，它已经出售了所有可以出售的股票，并将在允许的情况下继续出售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb04e82d11b2b74032cb91d003dd907\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"445\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir stock slumps as lockup expiration opens 80% of shares for trading<blockquote>由于禁售期到期，Palantir 80%的股票开始交易，股价暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir stock slumps as lockup expiration opens 80% of shares for trading<blockquote>由于禁售期到期，Palantir 80%的股票开始交易，股价暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-19 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 's&nbsp;direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which expires today. Insiders were only allowed to sell 20%of their shares in the listing, which means the remaining 80% are open for trading today. Palantir shares aredown 5.8%pre-market.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">帕兰提尔技术公司。</a>9月份的直接上市不同寻常地包括一个禁售期，该禁售期将于今天到期。内部人士只被允许出售20%的上市股份，这意味着剩余的80%今天开放交易。Palantir股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has faced valuation concerns with shares closing yesterday at about 274% above its direct listing reference price.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临估值担忧，股价昨天收盘价较其直接上市参考价高出约274%。</blockquote></p><p> Soros Fund Management will continue exiting its position that amounted to&nbsp; 18.46M shares as of November, when the fund said it regretted the investment and \"does not approve of Palantir's business practices.\"</p><p><blockquote>索罗斯基金管理公司将继续退出截至11月的1846万股头寸，当时该基金表示对这项投资感到遗憾，并且“不认可Palantir的商业行为”。</blockquote></p><p> The fund said at the time it had sold all the shares it could and would keep selling,when permitted.</p><p><blockquote>该基金当时表示，它已经出售了所有可以出售的股票，并将在允许的情况下继续出售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb04e82d11b2b74032cb91d003dd907\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"445\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663407-palantir-stock-slumps-as-lockup-expiration-opens-80-of-shares-for-trading\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663407-palantir-stock-slumps-as-lockup-expiration-opens-80-of-shares-for-trading","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107899645","content_text":"Palantir Technologies Inc. 's direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which expires today. Insiders were only allowed to sell 20%of their shares in the listing, which means the remaining 80% are open for trading today. Palantir shares aredown 5.8%pre-market.\nPalantir has faced valuation concerns with shares closing yesterday at about 274% above its direct listing reference price.\nSoros Fund Management will continue exiting its position that amounted to  18.46M shares as of November, when the fund said it regretted the investment and \"does not approve of Palantir's business practices.\"\nThe fund said at the time it had sold all the shares it could and would keep selling,when permitted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128361105,"gmtCreate":1624502261107,"gmtModify":1631889572495,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128361105","repostId":"2145201320","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183822492,"gmtCreate":1623323168516,"gmtModify":1634034596711,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long 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23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180651681","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder\nMonetary ","content":"<p><b>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Monetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的货币政策正在积极推动周期性增长的快速反弹，甚至迎接通胀的上行。这与1994年老一代政策制定者面对类似周期性反弹的方式形成了鲜明对比。当时，政策制定者迅速而积极地抑制周期性扩张，特别是通胀上升。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Someone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免自己犯下重大政策错误。透明度和可预测性的制度僵化使得宽松货币政策持续的时间超过了所需的时间。与1995年老一代政策制定者在1994年面临类似情景时设计的软着陆相比，目前的做法使经济走上了硬着陆的道路。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2021 vs. 1994</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>2021年与1994年</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的经济与1994年有很多相同的特征。随着不利因素的消退，这两年都出现了快速增长和价格压力。2021年，强劲反弹反映了经济重新开放以及宽松货币和财政刺激的帮助。1994年反弹的催化剂来自宽松货币政策的延长以及家庭去杠杆化、企业重组和国防削减的结束。</blockquote></p><p> 2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.</p><p><blockquote>继上一年创纪录的下降之后，2021年的快速增长速度更快、范围更广。普遍估计2021年实际GDP增长率在6%至7%之间，而1994年的增长率为4%。但这两年最大的区别是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Core consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.<b>Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.</b></p><p><blockquote>2021年前五个月，核心消费者通胀率的年化增长率为5%，而通胀率在1994年达到3%的峰值。管道通货膨胀的速度是它的三倍多。<b>中间材料的核心价格在过去一年中上涨了17%，而1994年的峰值为5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> The current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.</p><p><blockquote>当代政策制定者认为，产品市场的供需将在某个时候“自动修正”。这意味着，随着企业提高生产水平以满足更高水平的需求，而不会对经济造成任何干扰，管道通胀压力将消失。当然，在现实中，一两个产品市场可以重新调整。但是，考虑多种产品市场是天真的，住房和服务经济的许多部分可以同时这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.<b>A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.</b></p><p><blockquote>透明度和可预测性的制度僵化阻止了政策制定者结束所有人都认为不再需要的住房资产购买计划。这是实施货币政策的正确方式吗？仅仅因为政策制定者没有告诉或告知金融市场它计划缩减其资产购买计划，在完全透明之前它不能这样做。这毫无意义。<b>一项助长不可持续的需求激增和房价上涨的政策今天是错误的，明天就会更加错误。</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>1994年，老一代政策制定者将强劲的订单和材料价格上涨视为公司需要更多库存来保护生产计划的证据。2021年已经有企业因零部件短缺而不得不减产的例子。抑制最终需求被视为打破和缩短通胀周期性上升的必要条件。因此，1994年政策制定者连续12个月提高官方利率，将官方利率从3%提高到6%，翻了一番。官方利率的逐步上升带来了1995年的软着陆。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e215035587498373a49afd2e7a1eb321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"372\"><b>The current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome</b>. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前零官方利率和资产购买的政策立场使经济走上了一条不同的道路，硬着陆的可能性要大得多</b>美联储需要有人尽快发声，因为在快速增长和物价压力上升的背景下，创纪录的货币宽松政策不再是必要的，在此过程中，经济将走上不可持续的道路，结局将很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSomeone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 23:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Monetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的货币政策正在积极推动周期性增长的快速反弹，甚至迎接通胀的上行。这与1994年老一代政策制定者面对类似周期性反弹的方式形成了鲜明对比。当时，政策制定者迅速而积极地抑制周期性扩张，特别是通胀上升。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Someone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免自己犯下重大政策错误。透明度和可预测性的制度僵化使得宽松货币政策持续的时间超过了所需的时间。与1995年老一代政策制定者在1994年面临类似情景时设计的软着陆相比，目前的做法使经济走上了硬着陆的道路。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2021 vs. 1994</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>2021年与1994年</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的经济与1994年有很多相同的特征。随着不利因素的消退，这两年都出现了快速增长和价格压力。2021年，强劲反弹反映了经济重新开放以及宽松货币和财政刺激的帮助。1994年反弹的催化剂来自宽松货币政策的延长以及家庭去杠杆化、企业重组和国防削减的结束。</blockquote></p><p> 2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.</p><p><blockquote>继上一年创纪录的下降之后，2021年的快速增长速度更快、范围更广。普遍估计2021年实际GDP增长率在6%至7%之间，而1994年的增长率为4%。但这两年最大的区别是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Core consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.<b>Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.</b></p><p><blockquote>2021年前五个月，核心消费者通胀率的年化增长率为5%，而通胀率在1994年达到3%的峰值。管道通货膨胀的速度是它的三倍多。<b>中间材料的核心价格在过去一年中上涨了17%，而1994年的峰值为5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> The current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.</p><p><blockquote>当代政策制定者认为，产品市场的供需将在某个时候“自动修正”。这意味着，随着企业提高生产水平以满足更高水平的需求，而不会对经济造成任何干扰，管道通胀压力将消失。当然，在现实中，一两个产品市场可以重新调整。但是，考虑多种产品市场是天真的，住房和服务经济的许多部分可以同时这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.<b>A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.</b></p><p><blockquote>透明度和可预测性的制度僵化阻止了政策制定者结束所有人都认为不再需要的住房资产购买计划。这是实施货币政策的正确方式吗？仅仅因为政策制定者没有告诉或告知金融市场它计划缩减其资产购买计划，在完全透明之前它不能这样做。这毫无意义。<b>一项助长不可持续的需求激增和房价上涨的政策今天是错误的，明天就会更加错误。</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>1994年，老一代政策制定者将强劲的订单和材料价格上涨视为公司需要更多库存来保护生产计划的证据。2021年已经有企业因零部件短缺而不得不减产的例子。抑制最终需求被视为打破和缩短通胀周期性上升的必要条件。因此，1994年政策制定者连续12个月提高官方利率，将官方利率从3%提高到6%，翻了一番。官方利率的逐步上升带来了1995年的软着陆。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e215035587498373a49afd2e7a1eb321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"372\"><b>The current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome</b>. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前零官方利率和资产购买的政策立场使经济走上了一条不同的道路，硬着陆的可能性要大得多</b>美联储需要有人尽快发声，因为在快速增长和物价压力上升的背景下，创纪录的货币宽松政策不再是必要的，在此过程中，经济将走上不可持续的道路，结局将很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someone-fed-needs-speak-avoid-committing-major-policy-error?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someone-fed-needs-speak-avoid-committing-major-policy-error?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180651681","content_text":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder\nMonetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.\nSomeone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.\n2021 vs. 1994\nThe economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.\n2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.\nCore consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.\nThe current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.\nInstitutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.\nIn 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.\nThe current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136411497,"gmtCreate":1622035537919,"gmtModify":1634184484139,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long amzn!","listText":"Long amzn!","text":"Long amzn!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136411497","repostId":"1130889901","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376673227,"gmtCreate":1619123047069,"gmtModify":1634288442168,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long btc!","listText":"Long btc!","text":"Long btc!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376673227","repostId":"1194377792","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194377792","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619106065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194377792?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-22 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示，大摩比特币基金两周内撤资2940万美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194377792","media":"CoinDesk","summary":"Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor cou","content":"<p>Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor count.</p><p><blockquote>按投资者数量计算，摩根士丹利的新比特币产品已经是同类基金中规模最大的基金之一。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e70e516fc75fed43fed34f5b3b89822\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman(Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利首席执行官詹姆斯·戈尔曼（Christinne Muschi/彭博社，盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>One of Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin-only private funds raised $29.4 million from 322 investors in its first 14 days, according to regulatory documents published Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周四公布的监管文件，摩根士丹利的一只新的仅限比特币的私募基金在头14天从322名投资者那里筹集了2940万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Managed by FS Investments with NYDIG custodying the&nbsp;bitcoin, the fund is one of two new bitcoin investment vehicles offered by newly-bullish Morgan Stanley. When news of the institutional stalwart’s bitcoin offering broke last month, it kicked Wall Street’s crypto musings into high gear.</p><p><blockquote>该基金由FS Investments管理，NYDIG托管比特币，是新近看涨的摩根士丹利提供的两种新的比特币投资工具之一。上个月，当这家机构巨头在比特币发行股票的消息传出时，华尔街对加密货币的思考进入了高潮。</blockquote></p><p>The early returns for “FS NYDIG Select Bitcoin Fund LP” indicate investors are indeed hungry for accessing bitcoin products through their institutional managers. Passive funds like Morgan Stanley’s fare give clients unwilling to custody their own keys an easy way into the asset class.</p><p><blockquote>“FS NYDIG精选比特币基金LP”的早期回报表明，投资者确实渴望通过其机构经理获得比特币产品。像摩根士丹利的fare这样的被动基金为不愿意保管自己钥匙的客户提供了进入该资产类别的简单方法。</blockquote></p><p>In just 14 days, Morgan Stanley’s FS/NYDIG fund has become one of the most popular private bitcoin vehicles, beating out far-older industry offerings from Pantera and Galaxy by investor count, according to fund data compiled by CoinDesk. (Galaxy is also accepting bitcoin investments from Morgan Stanley in a&nbsp;pre-existing&nbsp;fund.)</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk汇编的基金数据，在短短14天内，摩根士丹利的FS/NYDIG基金已成为最受欢迎的私人比特币工具之一，在投资者数量上击败了Pantera和Galaxy等历史悠久的行业产品。（银河还接受了摩根斯坦利对比特币的投资，投资于摩根斯坦利的一只现有基金。）</blockquote></p><p>Seeking exposure to bitcoin via fund is not without its drawbacks. Morgan Stanley limits clients’ bitcoin bets to 2.5% percent of their total net worth. They must have at least $2 million in net worth. And they must pay an upfront placement fee of 3% for bitcoin investments under $250,000, according to offering documents obtained by CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>通过基金寻求比特币投资并非没有缺点。摩根士丹利将客户的比特币押注限制在其总净资产的2.5%。他们必须拥有至少200万美元的净资产。根据CoinDesk获得的发行文件，他们必须为25万美元以下的比特币投资支付3%的前期配售费。</blockquote></p><p>The average investment in Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin fund was around $91,000. Morgan Stanley will receive placement fees, according to the regulatory documents.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利新比特币基金的平均投资额约为9.1万美元。根据监管文件，摩根士丹利将收取配售费。</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley declined to comment. NYDIG and FS Investments did not immediately respond to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利拒绝置评。NYDIG和FS Investments没有立即回应CoinDesk。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1572937250936","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示，大摩比特币基金两周内撤资2940万美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示，大摩比特币基金两周内撤资2940万美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CoinDesk</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-22 23:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor count.</p><p><blockquote>按投资者数量计算，摩根士丹利的新比特币产品已经是同类基金中规模最大的基金之一。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e70e516fc75fed43fed34f5b3b89822\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman(Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利首席执行官詹姆斯·戈尔曼（Christinne Muschi/彭博社，盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>One of Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin-only private funds raised $29.4 million from 322 investors in its first 14 days, according to regulatory documents published Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周四公布的监管文件，摩根士丹利的一只新的仅限比特币的私募基金在头14天从322名投资者那里筹集了2940万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Managed by FS Investments with NYDIG custodying the&nbsp;bitcoin, the fund is one of two new bitcoin investment vehicles offered by newly-bullish Morgan Stanley. When news of the institutional stalwart’s bitcoin offering broke last month, it kicked Wall Street’s crypto musings into high gear.</p><p><blockquote>该基金由FS Investments管理，NYDIG托管比特币，是新近看涨的摩根士丹利提供的两种新的比特币投资工具之一。上个月，当这家机构巨头在比特币发行股票的消息传出时，华尔街对加密货币的思考进入了高潮。</blockquote></p><p>The early returns for “FS NYDIG Select Bitcoin Fund LP” indicate investors are indeed hungry for accessing bitcoin products through their institutional managers. Passive funds like Morgan Stanley’s fare give clients unwilling to custody their own keys an easy way into the asset class.</p><p><blockquote>“FS NYDIG精选比特币基金LP”的早期回报表明，投资者确实渴望通过其机构经理获得比特币产品。像摩根士丹利的fare这样的被动基金为不愿意保管自己钥匙的客户提供了进入该资产类别的简单方法。</blockquote></p><p>In just 14 days, Morgan Stanley’s FS/NYDIG fund has become one of the most popular private bitcoin vehicles, beating out far-older industry offerings from Pantera and Galaxy by investor count, according to fund data compiled by CoinDesk. (Galaxy is also accepting bitcoin investments from Morgan Stanley in a&nbsp;pre-existing&nbsp;fund.)</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk汇编的基金数据，在短短14天内，摩根士丹利的FS/NYDIG基金已成为最受欢迎的私人比特币工具之一，在投资者数量上击败了Pantera和Galaxy等历史悠久的行业产品。（银河还接受了摩根斯坦利对比特币的投资，投资于摩根斯坦利的一只现有基金。）</blockquote></p><p>Seeking exposure to bitcoin via fund is not without its drawbacks. Morgan Stanley limits clients’ bitcoin bets to 2.5% percent of their total net worth. They must have at least $2 million in net worth. And they must pay an upfront placement fee of 3% for bitcoin investments under $250,000, according to offering documents obtained by CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>通过基金寻求比特币投资并非没有缺点。摩根士丹利将客户的比特币押注限制在其总净资产的2.5%。他们必须拥有至少200万美元的净资产。根据CoinDesk获得的发行文件，他们必须为25万美元以下的比特币投资支付3%的前期配售费。</blockquote></p><p>The average investment in Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin fund was around $91,000. Morgan Stanley will receive placement fees, according to the regulatory documents.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利新比特币基金的平均投资额约为9.1万美元。根据监管文件，摩根士丹利将收取配售费。</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley declined to comment. NYDIG and FS Investments did not immediately respond to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利拒绝置评。NYDIG和FS Investments没有立即回应CoinDesk。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show\">CoinDesk</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194377792","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor count.Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman(Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)One of Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin-only private funds raised $29.4 million from 322 investors in its first 14 days, according to regulatory documents published Thursday.Managed by FS Investments with NYDIG custodying the bitcoin, the fund is one of two new bitcoin investment vehicles offered by newly-bullish Morgan Stanley. When news of the institutional stalwart’s bitcoin offering broke last month, it kicked Wall Street’s crypto musings into high gear.The early returns for “FS NYDIG Select Bitcoin Fund LP” indicate investors are indeed hungry for accessing bitcoin products through their institutional managers. Passive funds like Morgan Stanley’s fare give clients unwilling to custody their own keys an easy way into the asset class.In just 14 days, Morgan Stanley’s FS/NYDIG fund has become one of the most popular private bitcoin vehicles, beating out far-older industry offerings from Pantera and Galaxy by investor count, according to fund data compiled by CoinDesk. (Galaxy is also accepting bitcoin investments from Morgan Stanley in a pre-existing fund.)Seeking exposure to bitcoin via fund is not without its drawbacks. Morgan Stanley limits clients’ bitcoin bets to 2.5% percent of their total net worth. They must have at least $2 million in net worth. And they must pay an upfront placement fee of 3% for bitcoin investments under $250,000, according to offering documents obtained by CoinDesk.The average investment in Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin fund was around $91,000. Morgan Stanley will receive placement fees, according to the regulatory documents.Morgan Stanley declined to comment. NYDIG and FS Investments did not immediately respond to CoinDesk.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"MS":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366105460,"gmtCreate":1614403627150,"gmtModify":1703477345605,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool!","listText":"Cool!","text":"Cool!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366105460","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383894607,"gmtCreate":1612862425209,"gmtModify":1703765928874,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Forgot to monitor TWTR stock after it fell!","listText":"Forgot to monitor TWTR stock after it fell!","text":"Forgot to monitor TWTR stock after it fell!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383894607","repostId":"1107808840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176049417,"gmtCreate":1626849087939,"gmtModify":1631889572468,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176049417","repostId":"1134720097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134720097","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626848655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134720097?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jeff Bezos After Blue Origin Flight Says We Need To Move All Heavy, Polluting Industries To Space<blockquote>蓝色起源飞行后的杰夫·贝索斯表示，我们需要将所有重型、污染性工业转移到太空</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134720097","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all hea","content":"<p><div> Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all heavy and polluting industries need to be moved to space in a bid to conserve the beauty of Earth. What...</p><p><blockquote><div>亚马逊公司董事长杰夫·贝索斯周二在完成首次太空飞行后表示，为了保护地球的美丽，所有重工业和污染工业都需要转移到太空。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jeff Bezos After Blue Origin Flight Says We Need To Move All Heavy, Polluting Industries To Space<blockquote>蓝色起源飞行后的杰夫·贝索斯表示，我们需要将所有重型、污染性工业转移到太空</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJeff Bezos After Blue Origin Flight Says We Need To Move All Heavy, Polluting Industries To Space<blockquote>蓝色起源飞行后的杰夫·贝索斯表示，我们需要将所有重型、污染性工业转移到太空</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all heavy and polluting industries need to be moved to space in a bid to conserve the beauty of Earth. What...</p><p><blockquote><div>亚马逊公司董事长杰夫·贝索斯周二在完成首次太空飞行后表示，为了保护地球的美丽，所有重工业和污染工业都需要转移到太空。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","TSLA":"特斯拉","SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075811/jeff-bezos-after-blue-origin-flight-says-we-need-to-move-all-heavy-polluting-industries-to-space","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134720097","content_text":"Amazon.com Inc Chair Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday after completing his first space flight that all heavy and polluting industries need to be moved to space in a bid to conserve the beauty of Earth.\nWhat Happened:The world’s richest person told MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle that it will take decades to achieve such a feat but needs a start somewhere in order to combat climate change and keep Earth \"as this beautiful gem of a planet that it is.\"\nBezos on Tuesday blasted his way into space on the first crewed flight of New Shepard, the rocket built by his space-tourism venture Blue Origin.\nBezos said he’d love to fly to space again but would let others do it first. HefoundedBlue Origin in 2000 in hopes of lowering the cost of space travel. \"We have to build a road to space so that our kids and their kids can build the future,\" Bezos said on how what he experienced matters to Americans in general.\nWhy It Matters:The billionaire race to space is being seen as a key step towards commercial spaceflight as Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and SpaceX are all hoping to eventually operate profitable commercial spaceflight businesses.\nBezos' flight to space followed Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc founder Sir Richard Branson’s successful flight to space on July 11.\nSpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who also leads Tesla Inc has plans to send large rockets to space and dreams of eventually colonizing Mars. SpaceX isscheduledto launch a private astronaut mission in September.\nPrice Action:AMZN shares tumbled on Tuesday after the flight but recovered to close 0.66% higher at $3,573.19.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"SPCE":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164334297,"gmtCreate":1624170859719,"gmtModify":1634009828197,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164334297","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181162060,"gmtCreate":1623379153950,"gmtModify":1634033979411,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long s&amp;p500","listText":"Long s&amp;p500","text":"Long s&p500","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181162060","repostId":"1184070773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112030168,"gmtCreate":1622822938654,"gmtModify":1634097615945,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long baba!","listText":"Long baba!","text":"Long baba!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112030168","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了接触高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了接触高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119084617,"gmtCreate":1622508868339,"gmtModify":1634101008151,"author":{"id":"3560467327077768","authorId":"3560467327077768","name":"Tonofash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e1a03113d6558827ad92bff87c5ba0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560467327077768","idStr":"3560467327077768"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!!","listText":"Nice!!","text":"Nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119084617","repostId":"1197301052","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}