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07-31 11:58

25岁管着450亿而且敢于投资经验谁敢投，还有50亿美元的股权这是怎么赚来的？

一夜爆仓450亿！25岁OpenAI神童拉全球股民陪葬

07-30

能不能加俩0呢？公司也不回购这个价位难道还怕被套吗？

SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士韩股股票

07-29

救市是限制散户买？增加手续费？棒子脑子有问题吧

韩国财政部：韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市将采取措施限制杠杆ETF交易。

07-23

真的看懂了吗？十年没有这公司了咋办

段永平：10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特股票，拟卖出SpaceX、特斯拉、Palantir的Put

07-17

有种你别买啊，你怎么不把你买货公司利润拿来分享

再向韩国芯片巨头伸手：SK海力士与三星"超额利润"或需与美国分享

07-14

希望是好的开始吧

06-28

算力不是meta也有大量吗？

谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张

06-22

花旗就是**，降息你咋把目标价调整到3500

美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息

06-22

用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构

花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%

06-22

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽

06-18

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己

06-16

也没见闪迪跌啊

Citrini：AMD、苹果双双押注闪存替代DRAM，内存成本或直降55倍

06-10

带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔

06-10

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了

06-09

赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前

特朗普称美伊谈判进入“最后关头”

06-05

涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息

特朗普：就业报告非常强劲，股市理应上涨，经济增长并不意味着通胀

06-05

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少

06-05

假数据，ai裁员的人呢

美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%

06-04

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多

06-02

拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到

关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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11:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一夜爆仓450亿！25岁OpenAI神童拉全球股民陪葬","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157161517","media":"新智元","summary":"今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙至450亿美元的传奇基金，仅用一个月便灰飞烟灭。后来，Leopold因「告密」被OpenAI开除，他一怒之下写出165页的「AI圣经」，直接轰动整个硅谷。2026上半年，AI继续疯涨，Leopold的策略大获全胜。在不到24小时里，Leopold疯狂向投资者求救，试图抛售资产、找新钱。不仅他自己爆了，还带崩了全球AI概念股，无数散户跟着陪葬。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在刚刚，华尔街上演了一场教科书级别的平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场血雨腥风的主角，是被硅谷奉为「AI预言家」的Leopold Aschenbrenner，以及他那只439%逆天回报率的对冲基金——Situational Awareness（情境感知）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为精准押中AI浪潮，他曾被捧上神坛，掌管超200亿美元的庞大帝国。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙至450亿美元的传奇基金，仅用一个月便灰飞烟灭。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e18afa86976a076ad2d0ffe43eb86d7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1403\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">450亿帝国，为何一夜崩塌？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">原因是，「先知」重仓做多的AI硬件股（SK海力士、美光、CoreWeave等）本月暴跌超过35%；与此同时，他做空的软件股（如Adobe）却逆势反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">讽刺的是，就在被迫清仓的第二天，他重仓的那些AI股票，迎来了报复性大涨——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他死在了AI股大反攻前夜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且这个事件中最惨的，竟然是远在半个地球外的韩国股民——他们抱着AI信仰梭哈，结果一脚踩进深渊。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唏嘘的是，这位「先知」明明预测对了趋势，却死在了黎明前五分钟，还拉上了半个地球的股民陪葬。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a92b73319a7b2cb6afb02a8b910f0d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"864\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3575554266\">AI「神童」，跟未婚妻组成硅谷最牛CP</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这次「史诗级爆仓」的男主角——Leopold Aschenbrenner，在前25年的人生里，简直是活成了一个传奇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a246936eff19e63bedd85a69319825ee\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"542\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他是00后，德国裔，15岁就上了哥大，19岁时以全校第一的成绩毕业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毕业后的路径，更是「爽文标配」：他先是入职了SBF的FTX慈善基金，然后无缝衔接进入OpenAI，进了Ilya亲自带队的「超级对齐团队」，是OpenAI的「核心中的核心」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但真正让硅谷八卦圈磕上头的，是他和未婚妻 Avital Balwit 组成的「AI权力CP」。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91561092bac1e2bb9778dbac4cf2c2d6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位姐也是位牛人：她是罗德学者、牛津FHI出身，现在给Anthropic CEO当幕僚长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这对CP，杀伤力堪称史密斯夫妇：一个在OpenAI干过，一个在Anthropic当高管，饭桌上随便聊两句，就是AI圈的最高机密交换。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">后来，Leopold因「告密」被OpenAI开除，他一怒之下写出165页的「AI圣经」，直接轰动整个硅谷。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595240d8c350f69e6a479f1044360492\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"444\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Leopold Aschenbrenner于2024年6月发布长文，顺着「算力、数据一轮轮翻十倍」往下推，一路写到2027年AGI、智能体引爆的「智能爆炸」与万亿美元集群竞赛</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这篇《情境感知：未来十年》的长文，预言2027年AGI就要颠覆世界。这篇文章在硅谷传疯了，他也顺势下海，拿着「AI圣经」杀进了华尔街。</p><h2 id=\"id_3489219332\">半年狂赚439%，200亿帝国差点封神</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接下来，这位毫无职业投资经验的年轻人，成立了对冲基金Situational Awareness LP。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个名字，就很凡尔赛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早期投资人阵容，更是堪比硅谷全明星：Stripe联创Collison兄弟、Meta AI老大Daniel Gross、量化巨头Jane Street……全都掏了钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基金2024年底起步时只有约2.25亿美元，到2026年中一路滚到200多亿美元，巅峰逼近450亿。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39b9104489790d082299258569d38d3\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"928\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他们的成绩简直亮瞎眼：8个人管450亿美金，半年狂赚了439%！这个数字，简直让巴菲特看了都想转行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5b9f7d3d6b7318b8eb7d521c42886e4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Situational Awareness LP早期持仓：芯片+电力+数据中心，清一色AI基建「卖铲人」（图源：Fortune）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基金的策略，十分简单粗暴：在AI供应链上加满杠杆，重仓猛干。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他不仅重仓了SK海力士、闪迪、Nebius Group，还在私有市场重仓了未婚妻所在的Anthropic。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026上半年，AI继续疯涨，Leopold的策略大获全胜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月底，Leopold给投资者写了封信，语气大概是：「你们之前没加仓的，现在后悔了吧？没关系，现在还可以打钱。」</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">——这封信，后来被市场称为「死亡flag」。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98270b84c29d1f3b8cd2395766345ca\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3773664783\">死神来了：韩国散户踩踏</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到了7月，AI股突然变脸了。市场开始担心：这些科技公司烧钱太狠，回报在哪里？一场抛售潮开始了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一波雪崩，居然是从韩国开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国散户，都是出了名的「借钱炒股狂魔」，AI概念股一跌，立刻触发了券商的追加保证金通知：赶快补钱，不然就强平；没钱补，那就强卖。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国投资者被迫疯狂抛售，股价进一步暴跌，从而触发更多人的Margin Call……这个死亡螺旋，把全球带有「AI」的资产都卷了进来。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而Leopold的基金，正好站在螺旋正中心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果仅仅是买入并持有，亏损的只是账面数字。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但Leopold犯了华尔街最致命的错误——过度使用杠杆。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在顺风局里，他借用高盛、摩根大通的钱放大头寸，造就了439%的神话；但在逆风局里，杠杆反噬了一切。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f4345f03ac4c0ddc6e3619d89e4a6f\" alt=\"图片\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\"/><span>图片</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Situational Awareness LP重仓的几只AI股6月见顶、7月集体腰斩，跌幅普遍超40%，正是它被迫爆仓清盘的直接导火索（图源：Bloomberg）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街银行家们翻脸无情，向他发出天价的Margin Call。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在不到24小时里，Leopold疯狂向投资者求救，试图抛售资产、找新钱。但墙倒众人推，他的信仰、他在硅谷的顶级人脉，在这一刻毫无意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最终，交易员们被迫按残酷的时间表抛售，强制平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不仅他自己爆了，还带崩了全球AI概念股，无数散户跟着陪葬。</p><h2 id=\"id_1104616602\">「脸被撕碎」：Citadel巨鳄一口吞下160亿</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对顶级对冲基金来说，别人的爆仓，正是他们的狂欢。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ken Griffin，Citadel创始人，被称为华尔街最顶级的「食腐者」。他最擅长的就是在别人爆仓时，用骨折价抄底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbad403793ce4c611e1fa49b7c431fee\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"750\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在投行撮合下，Citadel一口吞下了Situational Awareness大约160亿美元的杠杆持仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Leopold只勉强保住了客户自有资金买的部分，外加约50亿美元的Anthropic私有股权——那是他未婚妻的阵地，也是他最后的底牌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这几笔资产交接的过程，足以让人崩溃。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博社的原话是这么写的：「交易员们管这叫『脸被撕碎』。这次动手的是Ken Griffin。我绝对不想接那通交接电话。太痛了。」</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">被捧上神坛的25岁天才，不得不低下头，亲手将自己深信不疑的「黄金资产」，打折卖给华尔街的老狐狸。</p><h2 id=\"id_4282952609\">杀人诛心：你刚爆仓，牛市就回来了</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果爆仓只是肉体的毁灭，那接下来的剧情，简直就是精神的凌迟。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在Citadel接盘的消息官宣后——Leopold重仓的那些AI股票，突然报复性大涨！纳斯达克100指数一天涨了3%以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为华尔街的狼群早就盯上了Leopold的困境。大家都在做空，等他爆仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当Citadel接盘的消息传出，意味着市场上最大的一个「强制抛售源」终于消失了。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">于是空头回补，多头反攻——牛市回来了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你看对了一个时代，你有顶级的行业人脉，但你加了杠杆，市场就把你逼到绝路。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场并不会评判你的想法对不对，它只评判你能不能「活下去」。</p><h2 id=\"id_1588682408\">华尔街百年定律：对了趋势，输给了时间</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Leopold Aschenbrenner的悲剧，并非个案。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11000efed2d56a3b5b9dfa2ae9b73aec\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"115\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一个例子，是1998年的长期资本管理公司（LTCM）。他们有两个诺奖得主坐镇，数学模型完美无缺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">结果，当年俄罗斯债务违约，市场非理性恐慌，他们的高杠杆直接爆仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e533e2854f4e0fe7d0f8c70827d15969\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"744\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二个例子，是Peter Thiel的Clarium Capital。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位教父坚信油价会涨，于是重仓。结果短期逆转，杠杆让他遭受巨大损失。一个对的逻辑，不等于一笔赚钱的交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71747376a135c7f3df1579514c390238\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天，这位与未婚妻共谋AI大局的硅谷天之骄子，也上了这份「聪明人的死亡名单」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，Leopold和他未婚妻，依然是世界上最懂AI的那批人之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他手里还攥着50亿的Anthropic股权，如果AGI真的来了，他照样可能东山再起。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次，华尔街给他、也给所有AI狂热者上了一课：在资本市场里，做房间里最聪明的人，并不能阻止你跌得粉身碎骨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有时候，自视甚高反而会加速你的毁灭。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一夜爆仓450亿！25岁OpenAI神童拉全球股民陪葬</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一夜爆仓450亿！25岁OpenAI神童拉全球股民陪葬\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-31 11:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0glQDoQp9fPDLFcrVy73TA><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。就在刚刚，华尔街上演了一场教科书级别的平仓。这场血雨腥风的主角，是被硅谷奉为「AI预言家」的Leopold Aschenbrenner，以及他那只439%逆天回报率的对冲基金——Situational Awareness（情境感知）。因为精准押中AI浪潮，他曾被捧上神坛，掌管超200亿美元的庞大帝国。但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0glQDoQp9fPDLFcrVy73TA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a246936eff19e63bedd85a69319825ee","relate_stocks":{"SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST QQQ ETF","03455":"景顺QQQ","07266":"南方两倍做多纳指","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","07261":"FL二华夏纳一百","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","09086":"华夏纳指-U","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","NAPR":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - 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December","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","QQQM":"NASDAQ100指数ETF-Invesco",".DJI":"道琼斯","NOCT":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0glQDoQp9fPDLFcrVy73TA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157161517","content_text":"今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。就在刚刚，华尔街上演了一场教科书级别的平仓。这场血雨腥风的主角，是被硅谷奉为「AI预言家」的Leopold Aschenbrenner，以及他那只439%逆天回报率的对冲基金——Situational Awareness（情境感知）。因为精准押中AI浪潮，他曾被捧上神坛，掌管超200亿美元的庞大帝国。但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙至450亿美元的传奇基金，仅用一个月便灰飞烟灭。450亿帝国，为何一夜崩塌？原因是，「先知」重仓做多的AI硬件股（SK海力士、美光、CoreWeave等）本月暴跌超过35%；与此同时，他做空的软件股（如Adobe）却逆势反弹。讽刺的是，就在被迫清仓的第二天，他重仓的那些AI股票，迎来了报复性大涨——他死在了AI股大反攻前夜。而且这个事件中最惨的，竟然是远在半个地球外的韩国股民——他们抱着AI信仰梭哈，结果一脚踩进深渊。唏嘘的是，这位「先知」明明预测对了趋势，却死在了黎明前五分钟，还拉上了半个地球的股民陪葬。AI「神童」，跟未婚妻组成硅谷最牛CP这次「史诗级爆仓」的男主角——Leopold Aschenbrenner，在前25年的人生里，简直是活成了一个传奇。他是00后，德国裔，15岁就上了哥大，19岁时以全校第一的成绩毕业。毕业后的路径，更是「爽文标配」：他先是入职了SBF的FTX慈善基金，然后无缝衔接进入OpenAI，进了Ilya亲自带队的「超级对齐团队」，是OpenAI的「核心中的核心」。但真正让硅谷八卦圈磕上头的，是他和未婚妻 Avital Balwit 组成的「AI权力CP」。这位姐也是位牛人：她是罗德学者、牛津FHI出身，现在给Anthropic CEO当幕僚长。这对CP，杀伤力堪称史密斯夫妇：一个在OpenAI干过，一个在Anthropic当高管，饭桌上随便聊两句，就是AI圈的最高机密交换。后来，Leopold因「告密」被OpenAI开除，他一怒之下写出165页的「AI圣经」，直接轰动整个硅谷。Leopold Aschenbrenner于2024年6月发布长文，顺着「算力、数据一轮轮翻十倍」往下推，一路写到2027年AGI、智能体引爆的「智能爆炸」与万亿美元集群竞赛这篇《情境感知：未来十年》的长文，预言2027年AGI就要颠覆世界。这篇文章在硅谷传疯了，他也顺势下海，拿着「AI圣经」杀进了华尔街。半年狂赚439%，200亿帝国差点封神接下来，这位毫无职业投资经验的年轻人，成立了对冲基金Situational Awareness LP。这个名字，就很凡尔赛。早期投资人阵容，更是堪比硅谷全明星：Stripe联创Collison兄弟、Meta AI老大Daniel Gross、量化巨头Jane Street……全都掏了钱。基金2024年底起步时只有约2.25亿美元，到2026年中一路滚到200多亿美元，巅峰逼近450亿。他们的成绩简直亮瞎眼：8个人管450亿美金，半年狂赚了439%！这个数字，简直让巴菲特看了都想转行。Situational Awareness LP早期持仓：芯片+电力+数据中心，清一色AI基建「卖铲人」（图源：Fortune）基金的策略，十分简单粗暴：在AI供应链上加满杠杆，重仓猛干。 他不仅重仓了SK海力士、闪迪、Nebius Group，还在私有市场重仓了未婚妻所在的Anthropic。2026上半年，AI继续疯涨，Leopold的策略大获全胜。7月底，Leopold给投资者写了封信，语气大概是：「你们之前没加仓的，现在后悔了吧？没关系，现在还可以打钱。」——这封信，后来被市场称为「死亡flag」。死神来了：韩国散户踩踏到了7月，AI股突然变脸了。市场开始担心：这些科技公司烧钱太狠，回报在哪里？一场抛售潮开始了。第一波雪崩，居然是从韩国开始的。韩国散户，都是出了名的「借钱炒股狂魔」，AI概念股一跌，立刻触发了券商的追加保证金通知：赶快补钱，不然就强平；没钱补，那就强卖。韩国投资者被迫疯狂抛售，股价进一步暴跌，从而触发更多人的Margin Call……这个死亡螺旋，把全球带有「AI」的资产都卷了进来。而Leopold的基金，正好站在螺旋正中心。如果仅仅是买入并持有，亏损的只是账面数字。但Leopold犯了华尔街最致命的错误——过度使用杠杆。 在顺风局里，他借用高盛、摩根大通的钱放大头寸，造就了439%的神话；但在逆风局里，杠杆反噬了一切。图片Situational Awareness LP重仓的几只AI股6月见顶、7月集体腰斩，跌幅普遍超40%，正是它被迫爆仓清盘的直接导火索（图源：Bloomberg）华尔街银行家们翻脸无情，向他发出天价的Margin Call。在不到24小时里，Leopold疯狂向投资者求救，试图抛售资产、找新钱。但墙倒众人推，他的信仰、他在硅谷的顶级人脉，在这一刻毫无意义。最终，交易员们被迫按残酷的时间表抛售，强制平仓。不仅他自己爆了，还带崩了全球AI概念股，无数散户跟着陪葬。「脸被撕碎」：Citadel巨鳄一口吞下160亿对顶级对冲基金来说，别人的爆仓，正是他们的狂欢。Ken Griffin，Citadel创始人，被称为华尔街最顶级的「食腐者」。他最擅长的就是在别人爆仓时，用骨折价抄底。在投行撮合下，Citadel一口吞下了Situational Awareness大约160亿美元的杠杆持仓。Leopold只勉强保住了客户自有资金买的部分，外加约50亿美元的Anthropic私有股权——那是他未婚妻的阵地，也是他最后的底牌。这几笔资产交接的过程，足以让人崩溃。彭博社的原话是这么写的：「交易员们管这叫『脸被撕碎』。这次动手的是Ken Griffin。我绝对不想接那通交接电话。太痛了。」被捧上神坛的25岁天才，不得不低下头，亲手将自己深信不疑的「黄金资产」，打折卖给华尔街的老狐狸。杀人诛心：你刚爆仓，牛市就回来了如果爆仓只是肉体的毁灭，那接下来的剧情，简直就是精神的凌迟。就在Citadel接盘的消息官宣后——Leopold重仓的那些AI股票，突然报复性大涨！纳斯达克100指数一天涨了3%以上。为什么？因为华尔街的狼群早就盯上了Leopold的困境。大家都在做空，等他爆仓。当Citadel接盘的消息传出，意味着市场上最大的一个「强制抛售源」终于消失了。 于是空头回补，多头反攻——牛市回来了。你看对了一个时代，你有顶级的行业人脉，但你加了杠杆，市场就把你逼到绝路。市场并不会评判你的想法对不对，它只评判你能不能「活下去」。华尔街百年定律：对了趋势，输给了时间Leopold Aschenbrenner的悲剧，并非个案。第一个例子，是1998年的长期资本管理公司（LTCM）。他们有两个诺奖得主坐镇，数学模型完美无缺。结果，当年俄罗斯债务违约，市场非理性恐慌，他们的高杠杆直接爆仓。第二个例子，是Peter Thiel的Clarium Capital。这位教父坚信油价会涨，于是重仓。结果短期逆转，杠杆让他遭受巨大损失。一个对的逻辑，不等于一笔赚钱的交易。今天，这位与未婚妻共谋AI大局的硅谷天之骄子，也上了这份「聪明人的死亡名单」。最后，Leopold和他未婚妻，依然是世界上最懂AI的那批人之一。他手里还攥着50亿的Anthropic股权，如果AGI真的来了，他照样可能东山再起。但这次，华尔街给他、也给所有AI狂热者上了一课：在资本市场里，做房间里最聪明的人，并不能阻止你跌得粉身碎骨。有时候，自视甚高反而会加速你的毁灭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPYU":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":2,"07522":0.6,"07568":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"03034":0.6,".DJI":2,"NAPR":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"03086":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"07261":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"NDX":2,"UPRO":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"03455":0.6,".IXIC":2,"07266":0.6,"09834":0.6,"HIBL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3498680662745699","authorIdStr":"3498680662745699"},"content":"美国人现在就是很疯，3月以来的行情几乎全靠杠杆在推动，全球都差不多，牛尾了","text":"美国人现在就是很疯，3月以来的行情几乎全靠杠杆在推动，全球都差不多，牛尾了","html":"美国人现在就是很疯，3月以来的行情几乎全靠杠杆在推动，全球都差不多，牛尾了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591379664766296,"gmtCreate":1785407940124,"gmtModify":1785407941997,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"能不能加俩0呢？公司也不回购这个价位难道还怕被套吗？","listText":"能不能加俩0呢？公司也不回购这个价位难道还怕被套吗？","text":"能不能加俩0呢？公司也不回购这个价位难道还怕被套吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591379664766296","repostId":"1148955973","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148955973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785407820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148955973?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士韩股股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148955973","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受消息影响，SK海力士 ADR 盘前转升0.9%，此前曾跌逾 4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64bdedf49ab1a11775875c87f1af08c4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"1120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK集团会长崔泰源首次在公开市场直接买入SK海力士股票，以实际行动展现其责任经营理念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国金融监督院30日披露的电子公告，崔泰源会长当天通过二级市场买入SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按当天收盘价每股132.2万韩元计算，此次买入金额约为47.9亿韩元（约48亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次买入后，崔泰源会长首次以个人名义持有SK海力士股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源一直未以个人名义持有SK海力士股份，而是通过作为最大股东的SK Square（SK스퀘어）维持对公司的控制权。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易完成后，崔泰源个人持有SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">包括SK Square持有的1.461亿股（持股比例20.00%）在内，最大股东及其关联方合计持有SK海力士1.46128151亿股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场普遍认为，此次增持不仅体现了崔泰源对人工智能（AI）存储器市场未来增长前景以及SK海力士中长期竞争力的坚定信心，同时也释放出其作为集团掌门人坚持责任经营的积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源于本月17日在韩国大韩商工会议所举办的济州夏季论坛上谈及SK海力士股价时表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“由于存储器始终是市场所需要的，因此从长期来看，股价会保持上升趋势。与其频繁买进卖出，不如长期持有，这才是更有利于财富保值的方法。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于近期股价波动较大的情况，他也表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“这只是股价上涨过快之后，市场逐步适应现实价值的一个过程。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 18:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受消息影响，SK海力士 ADR 盘前转升0.9%，此前曾跌逾 4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64bdedf49ab1a11775875c87f1af08c4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"1120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK集团会长崔泰源首次在公开市场直接买入SK海力士股票，以实际行动展现其责任经营理念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国金融监督院30日披露的电子公告，崔泰源会长当天通过二级市场买入SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按当天收盘价每股132.2万韩元计算，此次买入金额约为47.9亿韩元（约48亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次买入后，崔泰源会长首次以个人名义持有SK海力士股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源一直未以个人名义持有SK海力士股份，而是通过作为最大股东的SK Square（SK스퀘어）维持对公司的控制权。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易完成后，崔泰源个人持有SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">包括SK Square持有的1.461亿股（持股比例20.00%）在内，最大股东及其关联方合计持有SK海力士1.46128151亿股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场普遍认为，此次增持不仅体现了崔泰源对人工智能（AI）存储器市场未来增长前景以及SK海力士中长期竞争力的坚定信心，同时也释放出其作为集团掌门人坚持责任经营的积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源于本月17日在韩国大韩商工会议所举办的济州夏季论坛上谈及SK海力士股价时表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“由于存储器始终是市场所需要的，因此从长期来看，股价会保持上升趋势。与其频繁买进卖出，不如长期持有，这才是更有利于财富保值的方法。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于近期股价波动较大的情况，他也表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“这只是股价上涨过快之后，市场逐步适应现实价值的一个过程。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/79a68d4d1607e8a3d1dbd14c4d4283ce","relate_stocks":{"HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","07709":"XL二南方海力士","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SKHY":"SK海力士","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148955973","content_text":"据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。受消息影响，SK海力士 ADR 盘前转升0.9%，此前曾跌逾 4%。SK集团会长崔泰源首次在公开市场直接买入SK海力士股票，以实际行动展现其责任经营理念。根据韩国金融监督院30日披露的电子公告，崔泰源会长当天通过二级市场买入SK海力士普通股3,620股。按当天收盘价每股132.2万韩元计算，此次买入金额约为47.9亿韩元（约48亿韩元）。此次买入后，崔泰源会长首次以个人名义持有SK海力士股票。此前，崔泰源一直未以个人名义持有SK海力士股份，而是通过作为最大股东的SK Square（SK스퀘어）维持对公司的控制权。此次交易完成后，崔泰源个人持有SK海力士普通股3,620股。包括SK Square持有的1.461亿股（持股比例20.00%）在内，最大股东及其关联方合计持有SK海力士1.46128151亿股。市场普遍认为，此次增持不仅体现了崔泰源对人工智能（AI）存储器市场未来增长前景以及SK海力士中长期竞争力的坚定信心，同时也释放出其作为集团掌门人坚持责任经营的积极信号。此前，崔泰源于本月17日在韩国大韩商工会议所举办的济州夏季论坛上谈及SK海力士股价时表示：“由于存储器始终是市场所需要的，因此从长期来看，股价会保持上升趋势。与其频繁买进卖出，不如长期持有，这才是更有利于财富保值的方法。”对于近期股价波动较大的情况，他也表示：“这只是股价上涨过快之后，市场逐步适应现实价值的一个过程。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SKDD":0.6,"SKHY":2,"SKHX":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"07709":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"SK":0.6,"SKHU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590958164226120,"gmtCreate":1785328759705,"gmtModify":1785329101256,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"救市是限制散户买？增加手续费？棒子脑子有问题吧","listText":"救市是限制散户买？增加手续费？棒子脑子有问题吧","text":"救市是限制散户买？增加手续费？棒子脑子有问题吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590958164226120","repostId":"2655602988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2655602988","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1785327780,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655602988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-29 20:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"韩国财政部：韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市将采取措施限制杠杆ETF交易。","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655602988","media":"智通财经","summary":"韩国财政部：韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市将采取措施限制杠杆ETF交易。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n                  韩国财政部：韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市将采取措施限制杠杆ETF交易。                </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>韩国财政部：韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市将采取措施限制杠杆ETF交易。</title>\n<style 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U.S. Mega-Cap Growth 2x Daily ETF","AVL":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Direxion","AVGG":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Leverage Shares","AVGW":"Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay ETF","UCC":"ProShares Ultra Consumer Discretionary","UMDD":"ProShares UltraPro MidCap 400","QNTU":"Tradr 2X Long QNT Daily ETF","AVS":"1倍做空AVGO ETF-Direxion","AVGU":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-GraniteShares","AVGX":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Defiance","EO":"Corgi EOSE 2x Daily ETF","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2655602988","content_text":"韩国财政部：韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市将采取措施限制杠杆ETF交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EO":1.5,"UCC":1.5,"QNTU":1.5,"AVGG":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"MGKX":1.5,"QTOC":1.5,"AVS":0.6,"AVGX":1.5,"AVGU":0.6,"UMDD":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588861255106776,"gmtCreate":1784796468759,"gmtModify":1784796470516,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真的看懂了吗？十年没有这公司了咋办","listText":"真的看懂了吗？十年没有这公司了咋办","text":"真的看懂了吗？十年没有这公司了咋办","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588861255106776","repostId":"1175654851","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175654851","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784796407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175654851?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-23 16:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平：10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特股票，拟卖出SpaceX、特斯拉、Palantir的Put","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175654851","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0114ffea6e5c658e5521d4fd5cc4901\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1316\" tg-height=\"688\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平：10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特股票，拟卖出SpaceX、特斯拉、Palantir的Put</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平：10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特股票，拟卖出SpaceX、特斯拉、Palantir的Put\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-23 16:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0114ffea6e5c658e5521d4fd5cc4901\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1316\" tg-height=\"688\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885447e000f5e02536cd166eeda13f45","relate_stocks":{"09366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉-U","09992":"泡泡玛特","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","SSPC":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","PLTI":"REX PLTR Growth & Income ETF","07366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉","PLTA":"ProShares Ultra PLTR ETF","SPCQ":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Defiance","SPCU":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Defiance","PLYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","SNK":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-GraniteShares","PLTD":"1倍做空PLTR ETF-Direxion","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","LOFF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Direxion","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares","TSLA":"特斯拉","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","PLTG":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA 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ETF-GraniteShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175654851","content_text":"段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09366":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"SSPC":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"LOFF":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"07366":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"09992":2,"PLTU":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"SPCG":0.6,"SPCQ":0.6,"SPAX":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"SPAL":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"SPCU":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"SPCX":2,"TSDD":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"09766":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"PLTR":2,"TEST":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"SPCM":0.6,"TSLA":2,"SNK":0.6,"PLTI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586802155770424,"gmtCreate":1784293759595,"gmtModify":1784293761578,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"有种你别买啊，你怎么不把你买货公司利润拿来分享","listText":"有种你别买啊，你怎么不把你买货公司利润拿来分享","text":"有种你别买啊，你怎么不把你买货公司利润拿来分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586802155770424","repostId":"1160380075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160380075","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784291413,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160380075?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-17 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"再向韩国芯片巨头伸手：SK海力士与三星\"超额利润\"或需与美国分享","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160380075","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国在要求三星、SK海力士赴美建厂之外，又提出应分享韩国芯片企业利润，理由是美国采购推动其盈利。据《韩国时报》援引知情人士报道，美国贸易代表办公室副代表Rick Switzer上月在与韩国通商部长官吕翰九的会谈中明确表示，美方有权分享SK海力士和三星电子的巨额利润。这一表态尚未获得美方官方确认，但已在韩国业界和政府层面引发关注。韩国芯片对美出口激增，为美方主张提供依据美方提出利润分享诉求，有具体的贸易数据作为支撑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美国在要求三星、SK海力士赴美建厂之外，又提出应分享韩国芯片企业利润，理由是美国采购推动其盈利。若属实，美韩半导体博弈已从制造投资延伸至利润分配，对韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国在推动韩国芯片企业赴美建厂的同时，悄然提出了一项更为直接的诉求——分享利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《韩国时报》援引知情人士报道，美国贸易代表办公室副代表Rick Switzer上月在与韩国通商部长官吕翰九的会谈中明确表示，美方有权分享SK海力士和三星电子的巨额利润。这一表态尚未获得美方官方确认，但已在韩国业界和政府层面引发关注。与此同时，韩国今年上半年对美半导体出口同比激增逾九成，为美方的上述主张提供了直接背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一动向意味着，美韩之间的半导体博弈正从制造业本地化层面向利润分配层面延伸，对两家韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1094233157\" style=\"text-align: left;\">美方逻辑：采购贡献利润，理应分享收益</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《韩国时报》援引一位熟悉相关情况的业界人士，Rick Switzer在上月的会谈中向吕翰九提出，美国企业大量采购韩国半导体，直接推动了韩国芯片企业的盈利增长，因此美方同样有权分享这部分利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;美方的逻辑是，如果韩国本土合作伙伴因贡献了部分利润而有权获得分成，那么美国企业也应享有同等权利，&#34;该知情人士表示。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一名韩国政府高级官员也向《韩国时报》证实，美方确实提出了上述主张，但未作进一步说明。《韩国时报》多次联系美国贸易代表办公室及商务部、财政部寻求置评，均未获回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国产业通商资源部官员则表示，对此事并不知情，并重申韩国的基本立场是&#34;产业相关事务应基于商业合理性原则推进&#34;。该官员补充称，韩国企业已通过商业圆桌会议宣布了与去年关税协议相符的投资计划，并多年来持续进行了大规模投资。</p><h2 id=\"id_4192575052\" style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国芯片对美出口激增，为美方主张提供依据</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美方提出利润分享诉求，有具体的贸易数据作为支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国政府数据显示，今年上半年韩国半导体出口总额达到创纪录的1924.3亿美元，同比增长162.5%；其中对美出口增长91.3%，达264亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">单月数据更为突出。6月份，韩国半导体出口同比增长199.2%，达448.2亿美元，创历史新高；对美出口更是同比暴增377.2%，达64.9亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球AI芯片需求的持续爆发是上述增长的核心驱动力，SK海力士和三星电子作为全球主要存储芯片供应商，从中获益显著。</p><h2 id=\"id_3656104454\" style=\"text-align: left;\">建厂压力之外，利润分享成新战线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在此之前，华盛顿对韩国芯片企业的公开施压主要集中在推动其赴美建厂。上周，美国商务部长Howard Lutnick公开呼吁三星电子和SK海力士在美国建设存储芯片制造工厂，延续特朗普政府推动半导体生产本地化的一贯立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两家公司均已宣布重大对美投资计划，但目前均无在美建设先进DRAM或NAND晶圆厂的具体计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润分享诉求的浮现，意味着美方的施压逻辑正在扩展。如果说建厂要求指向的是未来的产能布局，那么利润分享则直接指向当下已经实现的收益，对企业的短期财务影响更为直接。</p><h2 id=\"id_1163015368\" style=\"text-align: left;\">超额利润该如何分配</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，美方提出利润分享主张之际，韩国国内围绕&#34;超额利润&#34;的讨论本已持续发酵。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近几个月来，韩国国内一直存在争议：三星电子和SK海力士是否应将部分超额利润重新分配给供应链上的分包商和供应商——后者在一定程度上也为这些利润的实现作出了贡献；甚至有观点认为，由于纳税人资金曾用于支持相关基础设施建设，公众也应从中受益。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美方的介入，使这一原本属于韩国国内的分配争议增添了外部变量，也令韩国政府和企业在应对上面临更为复杂的局面。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-17 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美国在要求三星、SK海力士赴美建厂之外，又提出应分享韩国芯片企业利润，理由是美国采购推动其盈利。若属实，美韩半导体博弈已从制造投资延伸至利润分配，对韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国在推动韩国芯片企业赴美建厂的同时，悄然提出了一项更为直接的诉求——分享利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《韩国时报》援引知情人士报道，美国贸易代表办公室副代表Rick Switzer上月在与韩国通商部长官吕翰九的会谈中明确表示，美方有权分享SK海力士和三星电子的巨额利润。这一表态尚未获得美方官方确认，但已在韩国业界和政府层面引发关注。与此同时，韩国今年上半年对美半导体出口同比激增逾九成，为美方的上述主张提供了直接背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一动向意味着，美韩之间的半导体博弈正从制造业本地化层面向利润分配层面延伸，对两家韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1094233157\" style=\"text-align: left;\">美方逻辑：采购贡献利润，理应分享收益</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《韩国时报》援引一位熟悉相关情况的业界人士，Rick Switzer在上月的会谈中向吕翰九提出，美国企业大量采购韩国半导体，直接推动了韩国芯片企业的盈利增长，因此美方同样有权分享这部分利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;美方的逻辑是，如果韩国本土合作伙伴因贡献了部分利润而有权获得分成，那么美国企业也应享有同等权利，&#34;该知情人士表示。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一名韩国政府高级官员也向《韩国时报》证实，美方确实提出了上述主张，但未作进一步说明。《韩国时报》多次联系美国贸易代表办公室及商务部、财政部寻求置评，均未获回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国产业通商资源部官员则表示，对此事并不知情，并重申韩国的基本立场是&#34;产业相关事务应基于商业合理性原则推进&#34;。该官员补充称，韩国企业已通过商业圆桌会议宣布了与去年关税协议相符的投资计划，并多年来持续进行了大规模投资。</p><h2 id=\"id_4192575052\" style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国芯片对美出口激增，为美方主张提供依据</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美方提出利润分享诉求，有具体的贸易数据作为支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国政府数据显示，今年上半年韩国半导体出口总额达到创纪录的1924.3亿美元，同比增长162.5%；其中对美出口增长91.3%，达264亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">单月数据更为突出。6月份，韩国半导体出口同比增长199.2%，达448.2亿美元，创历史新高；对美出口更是同比暴增377.2%，达64.9亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球AI芯片需求的持续爆发是上述增长的核心驱动力，SK海力士和三星电子作为全球主要存储芯片供应商，从中获益显著。</p><h2 id=\"id_3656104454\" style=\"text-align: left;\">建厂压力之外，利润分享成新战线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在此之前，华盛顿对韩国芯片企业的公开施压主要集中在推动其赴美建厂。上周，美国商务部长Howard Lutnick公开呼吁三星电子和SK海力士在美国建设存储芯片制造工厂，延续特朗普政府推动半导体生产本地化的一贯立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两家公司均已宣布重大对美投资计划，但目前均无在美建设先进DRAM或NAND晶圆厂的具体计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润分享诉求的浮现，意味着美方的施压逻辑正在扩展。如果说建厂要求指向的是未来的产能布局，那么利润分享则直接指向当下已经实现的收益，对企业的短期财务影响更为直接。</p><h2 id=\"id_1163015368\" style=\"text-align: left;\">超额利润该如何分配</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，美方提出利润分享主张之际，韩国国内围绕&#34;超额利润&#34;的讨论本已持续发酵。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近几个月来，韩国国内一直存在争议：三星电子和SK海力士是否应将部分超额利润重新分配给供应链上的分包商和供应商——后者在一定程度上也为这些利润的实现作出了贡献；甚至有观点认为，由于纳税人资金曾用于支持相关基础设施建设，公众也应从中受益。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美方的介入，使这一原本属于韩国国内的分配争议增添了外部变量，也令韩国政府和企业在应对上面临更为复杂的局面。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","07709":"XL二南方海力士","SKHY":"SK海力士","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","07747":"南方两倍做多三星电子"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160380075","content_text":"美国在要求三星、SK海力士赴美建厂之外，又提出应分享韩国芯片企业利润，理由是美国采购推动其盈利。若属实，美韩半导体博弈已从制造投资延伸至利润分配，对韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。美国在推动韩国芯片企业赴美建厂的同时，悄然提出了一项更为直接的诉求——分享利润。据《韩国时报》援引知情人士报道，美国贸易代表办公室副代表Rick Switzer上月在与韩国通商部长官吕翰九的会谈中明确表示，美方有权分享SK海力士和三星电子的巨额利润。这一表态尚未获得美方官方确认，但已在韩国业界和政府层面引发关注。与此同时，韩国今年上半年对美半导体出口同比激增逾九成，为美方的上述主张提供了直接背景。这一动向意味着，美韩之间的半导体博弈正从制造业本地化层面向利润分配层面延伸，对两家韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。美方逻辑：采购贡献利润，理应分享收益据《韩国时报》援引一位熟悉相关情况的业界人士，Rick Switzer在上月的会谈中向吕翰九提出，美国企业大量采购韩国半导体，直接推动了韩国芯片企业的盈利增长，因此美方同样有权分享这部分利润。\"美方的逻辑是，如果韩国本土合作伙伴因贡献了部分利润而有权获得分成，那么美国企业也应享有同等权利，\"该知情人士表示。一名韩国政府高级官员也向《韩国时报》证实，美方确实提出了上述主张，但未作进一步说明。《韩国时报》多次联系美国贸易代表办公室及商务部、财政部寻求置评，均未获回应。韩国产业通商资源部官员则表示，对此事并不知情，并重申韩国的基本立场是\"产业相关事务应基于商业合理性原则推进\"。该官员补充称，韩国企业已通过商业圆桌会议宣布了与去年关税协议相符的投资计划，并多年来持续进行了大规模投资。韩国芯片对美出口激增，为美方主张提供依据美方提出利润分享诉求，有具体的贸易数据作为支撑。韩国政府数据显示，今年上半年韩国半导体出口总额达到创纪录的1924.3亿美元，同比增长162.5%；其中对美出口增长91.3%，达264亿美元。单月数据更为突出。6月份，韩国半导体出口同比增长199.2%，达448.2亿美元，创历史新高；对美出口更是同比暴增377.2%，达64.9亿美元。全球AI芯片需求的持续爆发是上述增长的核心驱动力，SK海力士和三星电子作为全球主要存储芯片供应商，从中获益显著。建厂压力之外，利润分享成新战线在此之前，华盛顿对韩国芯片企业的公开施压主要集中在推动其赴美建厂。上周，美国商务部长Howard Lutnick公开呼吁三星电子和SK海力士在美国建设存储芯片制造工厂，延续特朗普政府推动半导体生产本地化的一贯立场。两家公司均已宣布重大对美投资计划，但目前均无在美建设先进DRAM或NAND晶圆厂的具体计划。利润分享诉求的浮现，意味着美方的施压逻辑正在扩展。如果说建厂要求指向的是未来的产能布局，那么利润分享则直接指向当下已经实现的收益，对企业的短期财务影响更为直接。超额利润该如何分配值得注意的是，美方提出利润分享主张之际，韩国国内围绕\"超额利润\"的讨论本已持续发酵。近几个月来，韩国国内一直存在争议：三星电子和SK海力士是否应将部分超额利润重新分配给供应链上的分包商和供应商——后者在一定程度上也为这些利润的实现作出了贡献；甚至有观点认为，由于纳税人资金曾用于支持相关基础设施建设，公众也应从中受益。美方的介入，使这一原本属于韩国国内的分配争议增添了外部变量，也令韩国政府和企业在应对上面临更为复杂的局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SKUU":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"SK":0.6,"SKHY":2,"07747":2,"07709":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"SKHU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585750088155280,"gmtCreate":1784036909033,"gmtModify":1784036913704,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"希望是好的开始吧","listText":"希望是好的开始吧","text":"希望是好的开始吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8eecd8149e0900c0603a104d61724e","width":"960","height":"1502"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585750088155280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579982686962792,"gmtCreate":1782627482257,"gmtModify":1782629696717,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"算力不是meta也有大量吗？","listText":"算力不是meta也有大量吗？","text":"算力不是meta也有大量吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579982686962792","repostId":"2646311199","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2646311199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1782620940,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2646311199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-28 12:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2646311199","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"英国媒体援引三位知情人士消息称，$谷歌(GOOG)$在今年3月前后告知$Meta(META)$，无法足额供应其所需的Gemini模型算力额度。此举打乱并推迟了Meta多项内部人工智能项目的推进节奏。受该算力限制，叠加公司整体压缩人工智能成本的战略，Meta已要求员工节约调用AI令牌，提升使用效率。$谷歌(GOOGL)$与Meta均拒绝对该报道置评。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英国媒体援引三位知情人士消息称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>在今年3月前后告知<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>，无法足额供应其所需的Gemini模型算力额度。此举打乱并推迟了Meta多项内部人工智能项目的推进节奏。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受该算力限制，叠加公司整体压缩人工智能成本的战略，Meta已要求员工节约调用AI令牌，提升使用效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>与Meta均拒绝对该报道置评。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-28 12:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-28/doc-iniexucw0700757.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英国媒体援引三位知情人士消息称，谷歌在今年3月前后告知Meta，无法足额供应其所需的Gemini模型算力额度。此举打乱并推迟了Meta多项内部人工智能项目的推进节奏。受该算力限制，叠加公司整体压缩人工智能成本的战略，Meta已要求员工节约调用AI令牌，提升使用效率。谷歌与Meta均拒绝对该报道置评。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-28/doc-iniexucw0700757.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8024f8b7ed0a3612f2c54c4d945b4ad0","relate_stocks":{"LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","SG9999018865.SGD":"United 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17:08","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2645407520","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除&#34;宽松偏向&#34;措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。</strong>花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为&#34;异常值&#34;，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。</p><h2 id=\"430d6906\">花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，<strong>油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。</strong>基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145ed3577bad64f1f3fafc29756e7824\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><h2 id=\"f5ce59ca\">花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，<strong>而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。</strong>该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8022e8ffcf8fdd63935db0bd1297e88f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><h2 id=\"pce\">花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是&#34;异常值&#34;，通胀画面并不统一</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；<strong>但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。</strong>花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de4b0e811a52a84b5662f999ae1a5c2a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的&#34;异常值&#34;，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。</p><h2 id=\"ab66a449\">华尔街&#34;投降&#34;：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺&#34;修复&#34;价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是&#34;明智之举&#34;。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开：&#34;如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。&#34;曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-22 17:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除&#34;宽松偏向&#34;措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。</strong>花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为&#34;异常值&#34;，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。</p><h2 id=\"430d6906\">花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，<strong>油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。</strong>基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145ed3577bad64f1f3fafc29756e7824\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><h2 id=\"f5ce59ca\">花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，<strong>而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。</strong>该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8022e8ffcf8fdd63935db0bd1297e88f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><h2 id=\"pce\">花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是&#34;异常值&#34;，通胀画面并不统一</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；<strong>但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。</strong>花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de4b0e811a52a84b5662f999ae1a5c2a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的&#34;异常值&#34;，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。</p><h2 id=\"ab66a449\">华尔街&#34;投降&#34;：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺&#34;修复&#34;价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是&#34;明智之举&#34;。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开：&#34;如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。&#34;曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","VIX":"标普500波动率指数","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","TYO":"3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access 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ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","JPST":"JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775196","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645407520","content_text":"花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除\"宽松偏向\"措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为\"异常值\"，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是\"异常值\"，通胀画面并不统一花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的\"异常值\"，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。华尔街\"投降\"：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺\"修复\"价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是\"明智之举\"。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开：\"如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。\"曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UVIX":0.6,"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,"BND":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"SQQQ":2,"TIP":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"UVXY":0.6,"KBE":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"VXX":2,"SVIX":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,".IXIC":2,"SHY":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"VIX":2,"VGIT":1.5,"YMmain":2,"EDV":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"MUB":1.5,".SPX":2,"GBIL":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,".DJI":2,"SVXY":0.6,"VGSH":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"QQQ":2,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"VIXY":2,"IEI":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"TQQQ":2,"VIXmain":2,"ZROZ":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":577893327949920,"gmtCreate":1782110809732,"gmtModify":1782113563243,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构","listText":"用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构","text":"用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577893327949920","repostId":"2645046651","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2645046651","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782108311,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2645046651?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-22 14:05","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2645046651","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗将美光科技目标价大幅上调43%至1200美元，核心逻辑直指内存超级周期远超预期：DRAM现货价格年内已飙涨52%，预计2026年全年均价涨幅高达200%。花旗将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益（EPS）预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，内存价格对盈利的杠杆效应正全面引爆。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗研究大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>目标价及盈利预测，认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续，价格上行动能远超此前预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，花旗在6月17日报告中，将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元，维持&#34;买入&#34;评级，调幅达43%。与此同时，团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%，其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元，较市场一致预期高出约4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。</strong>花旗预计，受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动，DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%，NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%，价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘，美光股价报1133美元，新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度（截至5月）业绩，管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态，将成为市场关注焦点。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">近期季度预测同步上调，财年盈利展望大幅跃升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次不仅调整全年预测，亦同步上调近期季度预估。<strong>报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按最新预测，美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元，2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元，2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面，预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元，2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著，充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%，2027财年进一步升至82.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edc000190573a8d87e21f4692d11420\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"672\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">现货价格领涨，合约价格上行空间仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示，DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%，自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%，花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按季度拆分，花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%；NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%，受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">供需缺口料延续至2027年，HBM成下阶段核心催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%，且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出，今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM，而非高带宽内存（HBM），预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升，成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">供给端方面，TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%，美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出，DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用，例如KV缓存卸载技术，这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象，进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f072bbda584ae97a15d31c4f133565\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值折价反映高利润率风险，长协进展受投资者关注</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观，花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍，显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险，以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者当前关注的核心议题包括：美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议（LTA）的签署进展——花旗认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近，管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-22 14:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗研究大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>目标价及盈利预测，认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续，价格上行动能远超此前预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，花旗在6月17日报告中，将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元，维持&#34;买入&#34;评级，调幅达43%。与此同时，团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%，其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元，较市场一致预期高出约4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。</strong>花旗预计，受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动，DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%，NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%，价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘，美光股价报1133美元，新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度（截至5月）业绩，管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态，将成为市场关注焦点。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">近期季度预测同步上调，财年盈利展望大幅跃升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次不仅调整全年预测，亦同步上调近期季度预估。<strong>报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按最新预测，美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元，2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元，2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面，预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元，2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著，充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%，2027财年进一步升至82.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edc000190573a8d87e21f4692d11420\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"672\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">现货价格领涨，合约价格上行空间仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示，DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%，自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%，花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按季度拆分，花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%；NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%，受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">供需缺口料延续至2027年，HBM成下阶段核心催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%，且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出，今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM，而非高带宽内存（HBM），预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升，成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">供给端方面，TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%，美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出，DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用，例如KV缓存卸载技术，这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象，进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f072bbda584ae97a15d31c4f133565\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值折价反映高利润率风险，长协进展受投资者关注</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观，花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍，显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险，以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者当前关注的核心议题包括：美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议（LTA）的签署进展——花旗认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近，管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"LU2048586759.USD":"ALLIANZ SMART ENERGY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) 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ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0859254822.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775163","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645046651","content_text":"花旗研究大幅上调美光科技目标价及盈利预测，认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续，价格上行动能远超此前预期。据追风交易台，花旗在6月17日报告中，将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元，维持\"买入\"评级，调幅达43%。与此同时，团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%，其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元，较市场一致预期高出约4%。此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。花旗预计，受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动，DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%，NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%，价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘，美光股价报1133美元，新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度（截至5月）业绩，管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态，将成为市场关注焦点。近期季度预测同步上调，财年盈利展望大幅跃升此次不仅调整全年预测，亦同步上调近期季度预估。报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。按最新预测，美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元，2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元，2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面，预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元，2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著，充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%，2027财年进一步升至82.9%。现货价格领涨，合约价格上行空间仍存DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示，DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%，自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%，花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。按季度拆分，花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%；NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%，受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。供需缺口料延续至2027年，HBM成下阶段核心催化剂花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%，且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出，今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM，而非高带宽内存（HBM），预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升，成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。供给端方面，TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%，美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出，DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用，例如KV缓存卸载技术，这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。此外，报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象，进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。估值折价反映高利润率风险，长协进展受投资者关注尽管前景乐观，花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍，显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险，以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。投资者当前关注的核心议题包括：美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议（LTA）的签署进展——花旗认为戴尔已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近，管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUU":0.6,"MU":1.98,"MULL":0.6,"MUD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":577807346151512,"gmtCreate":1782089817936,"gmtModify":1782092223087,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6421c76111f5da25ad3241e53ba97ebb","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577807346151512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576613038818368,"gmtCreate":1781798150658,"gmtModify":1781798261607,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576613038818368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":575842551600376,"gmtCreate":1781600441218,"gmtModify":1781600522030,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"也没见闪迪跌啊","listText":"也没见闪迪跌啊","text":"也没见闪迪跌啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/575842551600376","repostId":"2643373567","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2643373567","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1781599906,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2643373567?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-16 16:51","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Citrini：AMD、苹果双双押注闪存替代DRAM，内存成本或直降55倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2643373567","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面对DRAM暴涨，AI存储向低成本闪存转移。AMD收购MEXT将AI驱动闪存技术引入数据中心，苹果推进端侧闪存方案。巨头看重闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55，正重构AI存储架构。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理对昂贵DRAM的依赖正在松动。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>宣布收购内存优化公司MEXT，将AI驱动的闪存优化技术引入数据中心。这标志着AI存储架构正在经历一场结构性迁移，而核心驱动力只有一个数字：<strong>闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一，AMD宣布以未披露金额完成对MEXT的收购。MEXT开发的AI驱动预测内存技术，旨在让闪存的行为更接近DRAM，在维持性能与效率的同时扩展可用内存容量。AMD表示，此次收购将扩充其AI产品组合，帮助数据中心客户提升性能、降低总拥有成本并加速工作负载部署。&#34;对内存的需求正在企业计算的每个品类中增长，&#34;AMD在声明中称。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a86b38617b68e608382e6d8db9bf1389\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"755\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收购消息刺激AMD股价周一上涨7.7%至550.75美元，市值逼近9000亿美元关口，当日S&amp;P 500指数整体上涨1.8%。AMD今年以来累计涨幅已达323%。花旗上周五将AMD评级从中性上调至买入，目标价从460美元上调至575美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe5a732905489dfc96d3c249e9bea543\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"984\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>早在2024年就开始推进&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;端侧方案。这一布局背后，是愈演愈烈的DRAM供给危机。据TrendForce数据，高带宽内存（HBM）已占全部DRAM晶圆产能的约四分之一，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度单季环比暴涨约90%。Citrini Research指出，<strong>AI存储需求已大到需要多层架构共同承接，闪存并非取代HBM，而是在容量维度承接溢出需求</strong>——这场架构重构正在重新定价整条AI存储产业链。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7db9e832d1e323bc33ae1b899213dd97\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"825\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">内存税危机：瓶颈从AI蔓延至全经济</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Shawn Kim团队本月早些时候的判断，<strong>内存价格飙升和供应稀缺正演变为数字经济的全面风险，</strong>&#34;从AI基础设施的瓶颈，蔓延至硬件利润率、设备可负担性、云成本、通胀乃至政策层面。&#34;这一压力已有具体案例佐证：Xbox首席执行官Asha Sharma上周表示，内存成本在过去两年间上涨了约五倍，导致公司无法生产消费者所需数量的游戏主机。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">HBM对DRAM产能的持续蚕食是这场危机的核心驱动。据TrendForce及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等厂商的披露数据，HBM在DRAM晶圆产能中的占比已从2020年的2%攀升至2026年预估的25%。超大规模云厂商以多年期合同预购未来晶圆产出，进一步压缩了面向手机和PC的标准芯片可用产能。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新增DRAM产能的建设同样面临结构性制约。扩产依赖EUV光刻机印制更精细线宽，每台EUV设备售价高达约2亿美元，一座新晶圆厂的投资动辄<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元，建设周期在顺利情况下也需数年。这一供给刚性，正是本轮短缺具备持续性的根本原因。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">55倍成本差：闪存替代的经济逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research测算，<strong>闪存的每比特成本约为DRAM的1/55——QLC NAND约为每GB 0.05美元，DDR5 DRAM约为2.75美元，HBM3E则高达15美元。</strong>这一价差的可利用空间，在于AI推理中最大的单一内存消耗——KV缓存（记录模型每次生成步骤中所有先前标记的上下文，长对话中可增长至数百GB）——对读取速度的要求远低于模型权重的解码路径。对于此类顺序读取数据，DRAM的速度优势大幅收窄，而闪存的容量优势则充分体现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f9b061541f243d013842840b2a9af30\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪存的扩容路径也与DRAM存在本质区别。闪存通过垂直堆叠更多单元层来增加容量，依赖现有工厂已有的沉积和刻蚀工艺，无需新的光刻节点，不占用EUV资源。闪存控制器基于成熟的6/7纳米制程生产，远离正在制约先进制程的瓶颈节点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果研究人员此前发表的论文&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;提供了方法论支撑：通过将大语言模型参数存储于设备闪存、按需调取至DRAM的方式，可在DRAM容量受限的设备上运行超出其容量上限的模型，并在CPU和GPU上分别实现比朴素加载方式快4至5倍和20至25倍的推理速度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b87a29aa7ba0ff023c247b4f54e9951\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"630\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">两条路径：数据中心与端侧同步演进</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的收购聚焦数据中心场景。通过将MEXT技术整合至AMD数据中心产品组合，AMD寻求帮助企业客户在AI工作负载部署中提升资源利用效率并压缩成本。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim团队认为，尽管内存短缺持续，AMD在云端市场竞争格局上仍具结构性优势——&#34;代理式AI驱动的CPU需求在结构上有利于AMD在云端市场份额的扩张。&#34;花旗对AMD的乐观预判则更多基于其GPU销售与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的正面竞争态势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果的路径则落子端侧。&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;方案将模型推理对昂贵云端内存的依赖部分转移至设备本地闪存，在降低云端运算成本的同时，为端侧AI应用提供可行的内存架构支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research，两大路径共同指向同一结论：<strong>AI推理的内存层级正在重构，低频KV缓存、模型权重及端侧数据，将逐步从高价的HBM/DRAM下沉至NAND Flash/SSD层，形成多层次存储架构。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一架构转变正沿产业链形成多层次的传导效应。据Citrini Research梳理，最直接的受益层是NAND原厂，高容量NAND、企业级SSD及QLC NAND为最纯粹的方向，包括SanDisk、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>、美光及铠侠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SSD控制器层被认为持续性最强——让闪存真正接近内存体验的核心在于控制器、固件与NVMe架构优化，涉及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIMO\">Silicon Motion</a>、Marvell等。CXL/PCIe高速互联层亦受益。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCitrini：AMD、苹果双双押注闪存替代DRAM，内存成本或直降55倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-16 16:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理对昂贵DRAM的依赖正在松动。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>宣布收购内存优化公司MEXT，将AI驱动的闪存优化技术引入数据中心。这标志着AI存储架构正在经历一场结构性迁移，而核心驱动力只有一个数字：<strong>闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一，AMD宣布以未披露金额完成对MEXT的收购。MEXT开发的AI驱动预测内存技术，旨在让闪存的行为更接近DRAM，在维持性能与效率的同时扩展可用内存容量。AMD表示，此次收购将扩充其AI产品组合，帮助数据中心客户提升性能、降低总拥有成本并加速工作负载部署。&#34;对内存的需求正在企业计算的每个品类中增长，&#34;AMD在声明中称。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a86b38617b68e608382e6d8db9bf1389\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"755\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收购消息刺激AMD股价周一上涨7.7%至550.75美元，市值逼近9000亿美元关口，当日S&amp;P 500指数整体上涨1.8%。AMD今年以来累计涨幅已达323%。花旗上周五将AMD评级从中性上调至买入，目标价从460美元上调至575美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe5a732905489dfc96d3c249e9bea543\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"984\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>早在2024年就开始推进&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;端侧方案。这一布局背后，是愈演愈烈的DRAM供给危机。据TrendForce数据，高带宽内存（HBM）已占全部DRAM晶圆产能的约四分之一，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度单季环比暴涨约90%。Citrini Research指出，<strong>AI存储需求已大到需要多层架构共同承接，闪存并非取代HBM，而是在容量维度承接溢出需求</strong>——这场架构重构正在重新定价整条AI存储产业链。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7db9e832d1e323bc33ae1b899213dd97\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"825\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">内存税危机：瓶颈从AI蔓延至全经济</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Shawn Kim团队本月早些时候的判断，<strong>内存价格飙升和供应稀缺正演变为数字经济的全面风险，</strong>&#34;从AI基础设施的瓶颈，蔓延至硬件利润率、设备可负担性、云成本、通胀乃至政策层面。&#34;这一压力已有具体案例佐证：Xbox首席执行官Asha Sharma上周表示，内存成本在过去两年间上涨了约五倍，导致公司无法生产消费者所需数量的游戏主机。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">HBM对DRAM产能的持续蚕食是这场危机的核心驱动。据TrendForce及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等厂商的披露数据，HBM在DRAM晶圆产能中的占比已从2020年的2%攀升至2026年预估的25%。超大规模云厂商以多年期合同预购未来晶圆产出，进一步压缩了面向手机和PC的标准芯片可用产能。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新增DRAM产能的建设同样面临结构性制约。扩产依赖EUV光刻机印制更精细线宽，每台EUV设备售价高达约2亿美元，一座新晶圆厂的投资动辄<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元，建设周期在顺利情况下也需数年。这一供给刚性，正是本轮短缺具备持续性的根本原因。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">55倍成本差：闪存替代的经济逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research测算，<strong>闪存的每比特成本约为DRAM的1/55——QLC NAND约为每GB 0.05美元，DDR5 DRAM约为2.75美元，HBM3E则高达15美元。</strong>这一价差的可利用空间，在于AI推理中最大的单一内存消耗——KV缓存（记录模型每次生成步骤中所有先前标记的上下文，长对话中可增长至数百GB）——对读取速度的要求远低于模型权重的解码路径。对于此类顺序读取数据，DRAM的速度优势大幅收窄，而闪存的容量优势则充分体现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f9b061541f243d013842840b2a9af30\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪存的扩容路径也与DRAM存在本质区别。闪存通过垂直堆叠更多单元层来增加容量，依赖现有工厂已有的沉积和刻蚀工艺，无需新的光刻节点，不占用EUV资源。闪存控制器基于成熟的6/7纳米制程生产，远离正在制约先进制程的瓶颈节点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果研究人员此前发表的论文&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;提供了方法论支撑：通过将大语言模型参数存储于设备闪存、按需调取至DRAM的方式，可在DRAM容量受限的设备上运行超出其容量上限的模型，并在CPU和GPU上分别实现比朴素加载方式快4至5倍和20至25倍的推理速度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b87a29aa7ba0ff023c247b4f54e9951\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"630\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">两条路径：数据中心与端侧同步演进</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的收购聚焦数据中心场景。通过将MEXT技术整合至AMD数据中心产品组合，AMD寻求帮助企业客户在AI工作负载部署中提升资源利用效率并压缩成本。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim团队认为，尽管内存短缺持续，AMD在云端市场竞争格局上仍具结构性优势——&#34;代理式AI驱动的CPU需求在结构上有利于AMD在云端市场份额的扩张。&#34;花旗对AMD的乐观预判则更多基于其GPU销售与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的正面竞争态势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果的路径则落子端侧。&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;方案将模型推理对昂贵云端内存的依赖部分转移至设备本地闪存，在降低云端运算成本的同时，为端侧AI应用提供可行的内存架构支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research，两大路径共同指向同一结论：<strong>AI推理的内存层级正在重构，低频KV缓存、模型权重及端侧数据，将逐步从高价的HBM/DRAM下沉至NAND Flash/SSD层，形成多层次存储架构。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一架构转变正沿产业链形成多层次的传导效应。据Citrini Research梳理，最直接的受益层是NAND原厂，高容量NAND、企业级SSD及QLC NAND为最纯粹的方向，包括SanDisk、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>、美光及铠侠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SSD控制器层被认为持续性最强——让闪存真正接近内存体验的核心在于控制器、固件与NVMe架构优化，涉及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIMO\">Silicon Motion</a>、Marvell等。CXL/PCIe高速互联层亦受益。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a86b38617b68e608382e6d8db9bf1389","relate_stocks":{"LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","LU2954938101.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A8P\" (SGD) INC","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) 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VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774784","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2643373567","content_text":"AI推理对昂贵DRAM的依赖正在松动。AMD宣布收购内存优化公司MEXT，将AI驱动的闪存优化技术引入数据中心。这标志着AI存储架构正在经历一场结构性迁移，而核心驱动力只有一个数字：闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55。周一，AMD宣布以未披露金额完成对MEXT的收购。MEXT开发的AI驱动预测内存技术，旨在让闪存的行为更接近DRAM，在维持性能与效率的同时扩展可用内存容量。AMD表示，此次收购将扩充其AI产品组合，帮助数据中心客户提升性能、降低总拥有成本并加速工作负载部署。\"对内存的需求正在企业计算的每个品类中增长，\"AMD在声明中称。收购消息刺激AMD股价周一上涨7.7%至550.75美元，市值逼近9000亿美元关口，当日S&P 500指数整体上涨1.8%。AMD今年以来累计涨幅已达323%。花旗上周五将AMD评级从中性上调至买入，目标价从460美元上调至575美元。值得注意的是，苹果早在2024年就开始推进\"LLM in a Flash\"端侧方案。这一布局背后，是愈演愈烈的DRAM供给危机。据TrendForce数据，高带宽内存（HBM）已占全部DRAM晶圆产能的约四分之一，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度单季环比暴涨约90%。Citrini Research指出，AI存储需求已大到需要多层架构共同承接，闪存并非取代HBM，而是在容量维度承接溢出需求——这场架构重构正在重新定价整条AI存储产业链。内存税危机：瓶颈从AI蔓延至全经济据摩根士丹利分析师Shawn Kim团队本月早些时候的判断，内存价格飙升和供应稀缺正演变为数字经济的全面风险，\"从AI基础设施的瓶颈，蔓延至硬件利润率、设备可负担性、云成本、通胀乃至政策层面。\"这一压力已有具体案例佐证：Xbox首席执行官Asha Sharma上周表示，内存成本在过去两年间上涨了约五倍，导致公司无法生产消费者所需数量的游戏主机。HBM对DRAM产能的持续蚕食是这场危机的核心驱动。据TrendForce及三星、SK海力士、美光等厂商的披露数据，HBM在DRAM晶圆产能中的占比已从2020年的2%攀升至2026年预估的25%。超大规模云厂商以多年期合同预购未来晶圆产出，进一步压缩了面向手机和PC的标准芯片可用产能。新增DRAM产能的建设同样面临结构性制约。扩产依赖EUV光刻机印制更精细线宽，每台EUV设备售价高达约2亿美元，一座新晶圆厂的投资动辄数百亿美元，建设周期在顺利情况下也需数年。这一供给刚性，正是本轮短缺具备持续性的根本原因。55倍成本差：闪存替代的经济逻辑据Citrini Research测算，闪存的每比特成本约为DRAM的1/55——QLC NAND约为每GB 0.05美元，DDR5 DRAM约为2.75美元，HBM3E则高达15美元。这一价差的可利用空间，在于AI推理中最大的单一内存消耗——KV缓存（记录模型每次生成步骤中所有先前标记的上下文，长对话中可增长至数百GB）——对读取速度的要求远低于模型权重的解码路径。对于此类顺序读取数据，DRAM的速度优势大幅收窄，而闪存的容量优势则充分体现。闪存的扩容路径也与DRAM存在本质区别。闪存通过垂直堆叠更多单元层来增加容量，依赖现有工厂已有的沉积和刻蚀工艺，无需新的光刻节点，不占用EUV资源。闪存控制器基于成熟的6/7纳米制程生产，远离正在制约先进制程的瓶颈节点。苹果研究人员此前发表的论文\"LLM in a Flash\"提供了方法论支撑：通过将大语言模型参数存储于设备闪存、按需调取至DRAM的方式，可在DRAM容量受限的设备上运行超出其容量上限的模型，并在CPU和GPU上分别实现比朴素加载方式快4至5倍和20至25倍的推理速度。两条路径：数据中心与端侧同步演进AMD的收购聚焦数据中心场景。通过将MEXT技术整合至AMD数据中心产品组合，AMD寻求帮助企业客户在AI工作负载部署中提升资源利用效率并压缩成本。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim团队认为，尽管内存短缺持续，AMD在云端市场竞争格局上仍具结构性优势——\"代理式AI驱动的CPU需求在结构上有利于AMD在云端市场份额的扩张。\"花旗对AMD的乐观预判则更多基于其GPU销售与英伟达的正面竞争态势。苹果的路径则落子端侧。\"LLM in a Flash\"方案将模型推理对昂贵云端内存的依赖部分转移至设备本地闪存，在降低云端运算成本的同时，为端侧AI应用提供可行的内存架构支撑。据Citrini Research，两大路径共同指向同一结论：AI推理的内存层级正在重构，低频KV缓存、模型权重及端侧数据，将逐步从高价的HBM/DRAM下沉至NAND Flash/SSD层，形成多层次存储架构。这一架构转变正沿产业链形成多层次的传导效应。据Citrini Research梳理，最直接的受益层是NAND原厂，高容量NAND、企业级SSD及QLC NAND为最纯粹的方向，包括SanDisk、西部数据、美光及铠侠。SSD控制器层被认为持续性最强——让闪存真正接近内存体验的核心在于控制器、固件与NVMe架构优化，涉及Silicon Motion、Marvell等。CXL/PCIe高速互联层亦受益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMDS":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPL":1.89,"AAPX":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"AMD":1.96,"DAMD":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AMDU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573675882763736,"gmtCreate":1781087236304,"gmtModify":1781093845328,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔","listText":"带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔","text":"带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573675882763736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573410380423360,"gmtCreate":1781022408102,"gmtModify":1781023418677,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c19c93478b30164170711632c0fbb8d7","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573410380423360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573327636874440,"gmtCreate":1780994528994,"gmtModify":1780995118817,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前","listText":"赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前","text":"赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573327636874440","repostId":"1119916174","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119916174","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780994430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119916174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-09 16:40","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"特朗普称美伊谈判进入“最后关头”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119916174","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-09 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8deb964fe83a788e7ae02a962af884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119916174","content_text":"6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572005414089880,"gmtCreate":1780672086487,"gmtModify":1780673342705,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息","listText":"涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息","text":"涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572005414089880","repostId":"1187628526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187628526","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780670695,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187628526?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-05 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：就业报告非常强劲，股市理应上涨，经济增长并不意味着通胀","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187628526","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>6月5日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称：“刚刚公布的就业报告（5月非农）非常强劲，股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。过去200年来一直都是这样。经济增长并不意味着通胀！一个国家如果不实现增长，又怎么能实现伟大呢？？？”</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至发稿，美股三大指数均处于跌势，纳指跌超1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96e7c04d977a419d0efbbfe3315d7d4\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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22:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>6月5日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称：“刚刚公布的就业报告（5月非农）非常强劲，股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。过去200年来一直都是这样。经济增长并不意味着通胀！一个国家如果不实现增长，又怎么能实现伟大呢？？？”</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至发稿，美股三大指数均处于跌势，纳指跌超1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96e7c04d977a419d0efbbfe3315d7d4\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ed29d90b87a6605e0b8dbdcc213f44b","relate_stocks":{"HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187628526","content_text":"6月5日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称：“刚刚公布的就业报告（5月非农）非常强劲，股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。过去200年来一直都是这样。经济增长并不意味着通胀！一个国家如果不实现增长，又怎么能实现伟大呢？？？”截至发稿，美股三大指数均处于跌势，纳指跌超1.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPDN":0.6,"VOO":0.6,".DJI":2,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":2,"HIBL":0.6,".SPX":2,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SMAX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571974780015280,"gmtCreate":1780664604896,"gmtModify":1780665685493,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571974780015280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571966778738640,"gmtCreate":1780662672695,"gmtModify":1780664213790,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"假数据，ai裁员的人呢","listText":"假数据，ai裁员的人呢","text":"假数据，ai裁员的人呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571966778738640","repostId":"1174969218","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174969218","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780662620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174969218?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-05 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174969218","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3月份非农新增就业人数从万人上修至21.4万人；4月份非农新增就业人数从11.5万人上修至17.9万人。修正后，3月和4月新增就业人数合计较修正前高9.3万人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：就业增长主要集中在休闲和餐饮、地方政府以及医疗保健行业，而金融活动领域的就业则有所下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份报告表明，美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平。尽管近期能源价格上涨导致消费者信心跌至历史低位，但在去年就业增长几乎停滞之后，美国劳动力市场正重新走强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月失业率录得4.3%，连续第二个月持稳，符合市场预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：失业率保持在4.3%，自2025年7月以来一直维持在4.3%至4.5%的窄幅区间内。失业总人数为730万。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场反应</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CME“美联储观察”：美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为96.6%（非农公布前为96.4%），累计降息25个基点的概率为3.4%。美联储到7月维持利率不变的概率为90.6%，累计加息25个基点的概率6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场目前定价美联储将在明年1月底前加息，非农公布前预期的时间点为明年3月底前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>机构分析师Anstey评美国非农：考虑到美联储的使命是维持物价稳定和实现充分就业，仅凭这些数据来看，似乎很难认为当前就业市场需要帮助。另一方面，通胀率已远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。预计下周的CPI数据显示，核心通胀率将升至2.9%，而总体通胀将同比飙升4.2%（与美国5月平均每小时工资年率3.4%的增长相比，有点糟糕）。如果美联储政策制定者不进一步暗示2026年可能加息，那将是令人意外的。</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-05 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3月份非农新增就业人数从万人上修至21.4万人；4月份非农新增就业人数从11.5万人上修至17.9万人。修正后，3月和4月新增就业人数合计较修正前高9.3万人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：就业增长主要集中在休闲和餐饮、地方政府以及医疗保健行业，而金融活动领域的就业则有所下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份报告表明，美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平。尽管近期能源价格上涨导致消费者信心跌至历史低位，但在去年就业增长几乎停滞之后，美国劳动力市场正重新走强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月失业率录得4.3%，连续第二个月持稳，符合市场预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：失业率保持在4.3%，自2025年7月以来一直维持在4.3%至4.5%的窄幅区间内。失业总人数为730万。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场反应</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CME“美联储观察”：美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为96.6%（非农公布前为96.4%），累计降息25个基点的概率为3.4%。美联储到7月维持利率不变的概率为90.6%，累计加息25个基点的概率6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场目前定价美联储将在明年1月底前加息，非农公布前预期的时间点为明年3月底前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>机构分析师Anstey评美国非农：考虑到美联储的使命是维持物价稳定和实现充分就业，仅凭这些数据来看，似乎很难认为当前就业市场需要帮助。另一方面，通胀率已远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。预计下周的CPI数据显示，核心通胀率将升至2.9%，而总体通胀将同比飙升4.2%（与美国5月平均每小时工资年率3.4%的增长相比，有点糟糕）。如果美联储政策制定者不进一步暗示2026年可能加息，那将是令人意外的。</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68de4934c17cb39294aa80c76a44884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174969218","content_text":"美国5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。3月份非农新增就业人数从万人上修至21.4万人；4月份非农新增就业人数从11.5万人上修至17.9万人。修正后，3月和4月新增就业人数合计较修正前高9.3万人。美国劳工统计局：就业增长主要集中在休闲和餐饮、地方政府以及医疗保健行业，而金融活动领域的就业则有所下降。这份报告表明，美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平。尽管近期能源价格上涨导致消费者信心跌至历史低位，但在去年就业增长几乎停滞之后，美国劳动力市场正重新走强。美国5月失业率录得4.3%，连续第二个月持稳，符合市场预期。美国劳工统计局：失业率保持在4.3%，自2025年7月以来一直维持在4.3%至4.5%的窄幅区间内。失业总人数为730万。市场反应据CME“美联储观察”：美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为96.6%（非农公布前为96.4%），累计降息25个基点的概率为3.4%。美联储到7月维持利率不变的概率为90.6%，累计加息25个基点的概率6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。市场目前定价美联储将在明年1月底前加息，非农公布前预期的时间点为明年3月底前。机构分析师Anstey评美国非农：考虑到美联储的使命是维持物价稳定和实现充分就业，仅凭这些数据来看，似乎很难认为当前就业市场需要帮助。另一方面，通胀率已远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。预计下周的CPI数据显示，核心通胀率将升至2.9%，而总体通胀将同比飙升4.2%（与美国5月平均每小时工资年率3.4%的增长相比，有点糟糕）。如果美联储政策制定者不进一步暗示2026年可能加息，那将是令人意外的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":1,"ESmain":1,"YMmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571656099321016,"gmtCreate":1780588662547,"gmtModify":1780589164042,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571656099321016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570896448733808,"gmtCreate":1780403280842,"gmtModify":1780403609705,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到","listText":"拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到","text":"拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570896448733808","repostId":"1144850251","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144850251","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780397116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144850251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-02 18:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144850251","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内的服务进行相应调整。请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。","content":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">尊敬的客户：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">感谢您一直以来的信任与支持。为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内<span>（内地）</span>的服务进行相应调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自北京时间<strong>2026年6月12日</strong>起将做如下调整：</p><ol><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内交易服务：</strong>暂停股票等所有品种的新开仓、加仓交易，仅支持卖出、平仓操作；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内资金划转服务</strong>：暂停资金转入，转出功能保持正常，全力保障您的资金安全。</p></li></ol><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。</strong>感谢您的理解和配合，若有任何疑问，欢迎随时联系客服（400-603-7555），我们将竭诚协助。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1184303210\" title=\"\">老虎国际：关于近期跨境证券业务监管指引的说明</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-02 18:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">尊敬的客户：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">感谢您一直以来的信任与支持。为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内<span>（内地）</span>的服务进行相应调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自北京时间<strong>2026年6月12日</strong>起将做如下调整：</p><ol><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内交易服务：</strong>暂停股票等所有品种的新开仓、加仓交易，仅支持卖出、平仓操作；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内资金划转服务</strong>：暂停资金转入，转出功能保持正常，全力保障您的资金安全。</p></li></ol><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。</strong>感谢您的理解和配合，若有任何疑问，欢迎随时联系客服（400-603-7555），我们将竭诚协助。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1184303210\" title=\"\">老虎国际：关于近期跨境证券业务监管指引的说明</a></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144850251","content_text":"尊敬的客户：感谢您一直以来的信任与支持。为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内（内地）的服务进行相应调整。自北京时间2026年6月12日起将做如下调整：在境内交易服务：暂停股票等所有品种的新开仓、加仓交易，仅支持卖出、平仓操作；在境内资金划转服务：暂停资金转入，转出功能保持正常，全力保障您的资金安全。请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。感谢您的理解和配合，若有任何疑问，欢迎随时联系客服（400-603-7555），我们将竭诚协助。老虎国际：关于近期跨境证券业务监管指引的说明","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":591635089351128,"gmtCreate":1785470331033,"gmtModify":1785470333283,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"25岁管着450亿而且敢于投资经验谁敢投，还有50亿美元的股权这是怎么赚来的？","listText":"25岁管着450亿而且敢于投资经验谁敢投，还有50亿美元的股权这是怎么赚来的？","text":"25岁管着450亿而且敢于投资经验谁敢投，还有50亿美元的股权这是怎么赚来的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591635089351128","repostId":"1157161517","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157161517","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1785469640,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157161517?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-31 11:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一夜爆仓450亿！25岁OpenAI神童拉全球股民陪葬","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157161517","media":"新智元","summary":"今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙至450亿美元的传奇基金，仅用一个月便灰飞烟灭。后来，Leopold因「告密」被OpenAI开除，他一怒之下写出165页的「AI圣经」，直接轰动整个硅谷。2026上半年，AI继续疯涨，Leopold的策略大获全胜。在不到24小时里，Leopold疯狂向投资者求救，试图抛售资产、找新钱。不仅他自己爆了，还带崩了全球AI概念股，无数散户跟着陪葬。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在刚刚，华尔街上演了一场教科书级别的平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场血雨腥风的主角，是被硅谷奉为「AI预言家」的Leopold Aschenbrenner，以及他那只439%逆天回报率的对冲基金——Situational Awareness（情境感知）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为精准押中AI浪潮，他曾被捧上神坛，掌管超200亿美元的庞大帝国。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙至450亿美元的传奇基金，仅用一个月便灰飞烟灭。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e18afa86976a076ad2d0ffe43eb86d7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1403\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">450亿帝国，为何一夜崩塌？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">原因是，「先知」重仓做多的AI硬件股（SK海力士、美光、CoreWeave等）本月暴跌超过35%；与此同时，他做空的软件股（如Adobe）却逆势反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">讽刺的是，就在被迫清仓的第二天，他重仓的那些AI股票，迎来了报复性大涨——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他死在了AI股大反攻前夜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且这个事件中最惨的，竟然是远在半个地球外的韩国股民——他们抱着AI信仰梭哈，结果一脚踩进深渊。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唏嘘的是，这位「先知」明明预测对了趋势，却死在了黎明前五分钟，还拉上了半个地球的股民陪葬。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a92b73319a7b2cb6afb02a8b910f0d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"864\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3575554266\">AI「神童」，跟未婚妻组成硅谷最牛CP</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这次「史诗级爆仓」的男主角——Leopold Aschenbrenner，在前25年的人生里，简直是活成了一个传奇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a246936eff19e63bedd85a69319825ee\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"542\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他是00后，德国裔，15岁就上了哥大，19岁时以全校第一的成绩毕业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毕业后的路径，更是「爽文标配」：他先是入职了SBF的FTX慈善基金，然后无缝衔接进入OpenAI，进了Ilya亲自带队的「超级对齐团队」，是OpenAI的「核心中的核心」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但真正让硅谷八卦圈磕上头的，是他和未婚妻 Avital Balwit 组成的「AI权力CP」。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91561092bac1e2bb9778dbac4cf2c2d6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位姐也是位牛人：她是罗德学者、牛津FHI出身，现在给Anthropic CEO当幕僚长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这对CP，杀伤力堪称史密斯夫妇：一个在OpenAI干过，一个在Anthropic当高管，饭桌上随便聊两句，就是AI圈的最高机密交换。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">后来，Leopold因「告密」被OpenAI开除，他一怒之下写出165页的「AI圣经」，直接轰动整个硅谷。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595240d8c350f69e6a479f1044360492\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"444\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Leopold Aschenbrenner于2024年6月发布长文，顺着「算力、数据一轮轮翻十倍」往下推，一路写到2027年AGI、智能体引爆的「智能爆炸」与万亿美元集群竞赛</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这篇《情境感知：未来十年》的长文，预言2027年AGI就要颠覆世界。这篇文章在硅谷传疯了，他也顺势下海，拿着「AI圣经」杀进了华尔街。</p><h2 id=\"id_3489219332\">半年狂赚439%，200亿帝国差点封神</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接下来，这位毫无职业投资经验的年轻人，成立了对冲基金Situational Awareness LP。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个名字，就很凡尔赛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早期投资人阵容，更是堪比硅谷全明星：Stripe联创Collison兄弟、Meta AI老大Daniel Gross、量化巨头Jane Street……全都掏了钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基金2024年底起步时只有约2.25亿美元，到2026年中一路滚到200多亿美元，巅峰逼近450亿。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39b9104489790d082299258569d38d3\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"928\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他们的成绩简直亮瞎眼：8个人管450亿美金，半年狂赚了439%！这个数字，简直让巴菲特看了都想转行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5b9f7d3d6b7318b8eb7d521c42886e4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Situational Awareness LP早期持仓：芯片+电力+数据中心，清一色AI基建「卖铲人」（图源：Fortune）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基金的策略，十分简单粗暴：在AI供应链上加满杠杆，重仓猛干。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他不仅重仓了SK海力士、闪迪、Nebius Group，还在私有市场重仓了未婚妻所在的Anthropic。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026上半年，AI继续疯涨，Leopold的策略大获全胜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月底，Leopold给投资者写了封信，语气大概是：「你们之前没加仓的，现在后悔了吧？没关系，现在还可以打钱。」</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">——这封信，后来被市场称为「死亡flag」。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98270b84c29d1f3b8cd2395766345ca\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3773664783\">死神来了：韩国散户踩踏</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到了7月，AI股突然变脸了。市场开始担心：这些科技公司烧钱太狠，回报在哪里？一场抛售潮开始了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一波雪崩，居然是从韩国开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国散户，都是出了名的「借钱炒股狂魔」，AI概念股一跌，立刻触发了券商的追加保证金通知：赶快补钱，不然就强平；没钱补，那就强卖。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国投资者被迫疯狂抛售，股价进一步暴跌，从而触发更多人的Margin Call……这个死亡螺旋，把全球带有「AI」的资产都卷了进来。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而Leopold的基金，正好站在螺旋正中心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果仅仅是买入并持有，亏损的只是账面数字。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但Leopold犯了华尔街最致命的错误——过度使用杠杆。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在顺风局里，他借用高盛、摩根大通的钱放大头寸，造就了439%的神话；但在逆风局里，杠杆反噬了一切。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f4345f03ac4c0ddc6e3619d89e4a6f\" alt=\"图片\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\"/><span>图片</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Situational Awareness LP重仓的几只AI股6月见顶、7月集体腰斩，跌幅普遍超40%，正是它被迫爆仓清盘的直接导火索（图源：Bloomberg）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街银行家们翻脸无情，向他发出天价的Margin Call。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在不到24小时里，Leopold疯狂向投资者求救，试图抛售资产、找新钱。但墙倒众人推，他的信仰、他在硅谷的顶级人脉，在这一刻毫无意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最终，交易员们被迫按残酷的时间表抛售，强制平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不仅他自己爆了，还带崩了全球AI概念股，无数散户跟着陪葬。</p><h2 id=\"id_1104616602\">「脸被撕碎」：Citadel巨鳄一口吞下160亿</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对顶级对冲基金来说，别人的爆仓，正是他们的狂欢。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ken Griffin，Citadel创始人，被称为华尔街最顶级的「食腐者」。他最擅长的就是在别人爆仓时，用骨折价抄底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbad403793ce4c611e1fa49b7c431fee\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"750\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在投行撮合下，Citadel一口吞下了Situational Awareness大约160亿美元的杠杆持仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Leopold只勉强保住了客户自有资金买的部分，外加约50亿美元的Anthropic私有股权——那是他未婚妻的阵地，也是他最后的底牌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这几笔资产交接的过程，足以让人崩溃。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博社的原话是这么写的：「交易员们管这叫『脸被撕碎』。这次动手的是Ken Griffin。我绝对不想接那通交接电话。太痛了。」</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">被捧上神坛的25岁天才，不得不低下头，亲手将自己深信不疑的「黄金资产」，打折卖给华尔街的老狐狸。</p><h2 id=\"id_4282952609\">杀人诛心：你刚爆仓，牛市就回来了</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果爆仓只是肉体的毁灭，那接下来的剧情，简直就是精神的凌迟。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在Citadel接盘的消息官宣后——Leopold重仓的那些AI股票，突然报复性大涨！纳斯达克100指数一天涨了3%以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为华尔街的狼群早就盯上了Leopold的困境。大家都在做空，等他爆仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当Citadel接盘的消息传出，意味着市场上最大的一个「强制抛售源」终于消失了。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">于是空头回补，多头反攻——牛市回来了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你看对了一个时代，你有顶级的行业人脉，但你加了杠杆，市场就把你逼到绝路。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场并不会评判你的想法对不对，它只评判你能不能「活下去」。</p><h2 id=\"id_1588682408\">华尔街百年定律：对了趋势，输给了时间</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Leopold Aschenbrenner的悲剧，并非个案。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11000efed2d56a3b5b9dfa2ae9b73aec\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"115\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一个例子，是1998年的长期资本管理公司（LTCM）。他们有两个诺奖得主坐镇，数学模型完美无缺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">结果，当年俄罗斯债务违约，市场非理性恐慌，他们的高杠杆直接爆仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e533e2854f4e0fe7d0f8c70827d15969\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"744\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二个例子，是Peter Thiel的Clarium Capital。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位教父坚信油价会涨，于是重仓。结果短期逆转，杠杆让他遭受巨大损失。一个对的逻辑，不等于一笔赚钱的交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71747376a135c7f3df1579514c390238\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天，这位与未婚妻共谋AI大局的硅谷天之骄子，也上了这份「聪明人的死亡名单」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，Leopold和他未婚妻，依然是世界上最懂AI的那批人之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他手里还攥着50亿的Anthropic股权，如果AGI真的来了，他照样可能东山再起。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次，华尔街给他、也给所有AI狂热者上了一课：在资本市场里，做房间里最聪明的人，并不能阻止你跌得粉身碎骨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有时候，自视甚高反而会加速你的毁灭。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一夜爆仓450亿！25岁OpenAI神童拉全球股民陪葬</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一夜爆仓450亿！25岁OpenAI神童拉全球股民陪葬\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-31 11:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0glQDoQp9fPDLFcrVy73TA><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。就在刚刚，华尔街上演了一场教科书级别的平仓。这场血雨腥风的主角，是被硅谷奉为「AI预言家」的Leopold Aschenbrenner，以及他那只439%逆天回报率的对冲基金——Situational Awareness（情境感知）。因为精准押中AI浪潮，他曾被捧上神坛，掌管超200亿美元的庞大帝国。但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0glQDoQp9fPDLFcrVy73TA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a246936eff19e63bedd85a69319825ee","relate_stocks":{"SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST QQQ ETF","03455":"景顺QQQ","07266":"南方两倍做多纳指","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","07261":"FL二华夏纳一百","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","09086":"华夏纳指-U","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","NAPR":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - 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December","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","QQQM":"NASDAQ100指数ETF-Invesco",".DJI":"道琼斯","NOCT":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0glQDoQp9fPDLFcrVy73TA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157161517","content_text":"今天，全网都被这位25岁「AI先知」的故事刷屏了。就在刚刚，华尔街上演了一场教科书级别的平仓。这场血雨腥风的主角，是被硅谷奉为「AI预言家」的Leopold Aschenbrenner，以及他那只439%逆天回报率的对冲基金——Situational Awareness（情境感知）。因为精准押中AI浪潮，他曾被捧上神坛，掌管超200亿美元的庞大帝国。但一场突如其来的AI科技股暴跌，让这只从2亿狂飙至450亿美元的传奇基金，仅用一个月便灰飞烟灭。450亿帝国，为何一夜崩塌？原因是，「先知」重仓做多的AI硬件股（SK海力士、美光、CoreWeave等）本月暴跌超过35%；与此同时，他做空的软件股（如Adobe）却逆势反弹。讽刺的是，就在被迫清仓的第二天，他重仓的那些AI股票，迎来了报复性大涨——他死在了AI股大反攻前夜。而且这个事件中最惨的，竟然是远在半个地球外的韩国股民——他们抱着AI信仰梭哈，结果一脚踩进深渊。唏嘘的是，这位「先知」明明预测对了趋势，却死在了黎明前五分钟，还拉上了半个地球的股民陪葬。AI「神童」，跟未婚妻组成硅谷最牛CP这次「史诗级爆仓」的男主角——Leopold Aschenbrenner，在前25年的人生里，简直是活成了一个传奇。他是00后，德国裔，15岁就上了哥大，19岁时以全校第一的成绩毕业。毕业后的路径，更是「爽文标配」：他先是入职了SBF的FTX慈善基金，然后无缝衔接进入OpenAI，进了Ilya亲自带队的「超级对齐团队」，是OpenAI的「核心中的核心」。但真正让硅谷八卦圈磕上头的，是他和未婚妻 Avital Balwit 组成的「AI权力CP」。这位姐也是位牛人：她是罗德学者、牛津FHI出身，现在给Anthropic CEO当幕僚长。这对CP，杀伤力堪称史密斯夫妇：一个在OpenAI干过，一个在Anthropic当高管，饭桌上随便聊两句，就是AI圈的最高机密交换。后来，Leopold因「告密」被OpenAI开除，他一怒之下写出165页的「AI圣经」，直接轰动整个硅谷。Leopold Aschenbrenner于2024年6月发布长文，顺着「算力、数据一轮轮翻十倍」往下推，一路写到2027年AGI、智能体引爆的「智能爆炸」与万亿美元集群竞赛这篇《情境感知：未来十年》的长文，预言2027年AGI就要颠覆世界。这篇文章在硅谷传疯了，他也顺势下海，拿着「AI圣经」杀进了华尔街。半年狂赚439%，200亿帝国差点封神接下来，这位毫无职业投资经验的年轻人，成立了对冲基金Situational Awareness LP。这个名字，就很凡尔赛。早期投资人阵容，更是堪比硅谷全明星：Stripe联创Collison兄弟、Meta AI老大Daniel Gross、量化巨头Jane Street……全都掏了钱。基金2024年底起步时只有约2.25亿美元，到2026年中一路滚到200多亿美元，巅峰逼近450亿。他们的成绩简直亮瞎眼：8个人管450亿美金，半年狂赚了439%！这个数字，简直让巴菲特看了都想转行。Situational Awareness LP早期持仓：芯片+电力+数据中心，清一色AI基建「卖铲人」（图源：Fortune）基金的策略，十分简单粗暴：在AI供应链上加满杠杆，重仓猛干。 他不仅重仓了SK海力士、闪迪、Nebius Group，还在私有市场重仓了未婚妻所在的Anthropic。2026上半年，AI继续疯涨，Leopold的策略大获全胜。7月底，Leopold给投资者写了封信，语气大概是：「你们之前没加仓的，现在后悔了吧？没关系，现在还可以打钱。」——这封信，后来被市场称为「死亡flag」。死神来了：韩国散户踩踏到了7月，AI股突然变脸了。市场开始担心：这些科技公司烧钱太狠，回报在哪里？一场抛售潮开始了。第一波雪崩，居然是从韩国开始的。韩国散户，都是出了名的「借钱炒股狂魔」，AI概念股一跌，立刻触发了券商的追加保证金通知：赶快补钱，不然就强平；没钱补，那就强卖。韩国投资者被迫疯狂抛售，股价进一步暴跌，从而触发更多人的Margin Call……这个死亡螺旋，把全球带有「AI」的资产都卷了进来。而Leopold的基金，正好站在螺旋正中心。如果仅仅是买入并持有，亏损的只是账面数字。但Leopold犯了华尔街最致命的错误——过度使用杠杆。 在顺风局里，他借用高盛、摩根大通的钱放大头寸，造就了439%的神话；但在逆风局里，杠杆反噬了一切。图片Situational Awareness LP重仓的几只AI股6月见顶、7月集体腰斩，跌幅普遍超40%，正是它被迫爆仓清盘的直接导火索（图源：Bloomberg）华尔街银行家们翻脸无情，向他发出天价的Margin Call。在不到24小时里，Leopold疯狂向投资者求救，试图抛售资产、找新钱。但墙倒众人推，他的信仰、他在硅谷的顶级人脉，在这一刻毫无意义。最终，交易员们被迫按残酷的时间表抛售，强制平仓。不仅他自己爆了，还带崩了全球AI概念股，无数散户跟着陪葬。「脸被撕碎」：Citadel巨鳄一口吞下160亿对顶级对冲基金来说，别人的爆仓，正是他们的狂欢。Ken Griffin，Citadel创始人，被称为华尔街最顶级的「食腐者」。他最擅长的就是在别人爆仓时，用骨折价抄底。在投行撮合下，Citadel一口吞下了Situational Awareness大约160亿美元的杠杆持仓。Leopold只勉强保住了客户自有资金买的部分，外加约50亿美元的Anthropic私有股权——那是他未婚妻的阵地，也是他最后的底牌。这几笔资产交接的过程，足以让人崩溃。彭博社的原话是这么写的：「交易员们管这叫『脸被撕碎』。这次动手的是Ken Griffin。我绝对不想接那通交接电话。太痛了。」被捧上神坛的25岁天才，不得不低下头，亲手将自己深信不疑的「黄金资产」，打折卖给华尔街的老狐狸。杀人诛心：你刚爆仓，牛市就回来了如果爆仓只是肉体的毁灭，那接下来的剧情，简直就是精神的凌迟。就在Citadel接盘的消息官宣后——Leopold重仓的那些AI股票，突然报复性大涨！纳斯达克100指数一天涨了3%以上。为什么？因为华尔街的狼群早就盯上了Leopold的困境。大家都在做空，等他爆仓。当Citadel接盘的消息传出，意味着市场上最大的一个「强制抛售源」终于消失了。 于是空头回补，多头反攻——牛市回来了。你看对了一个时代，你有顶级的行业人脉，但你加了杠杆，市场就把你逼到绝路。市场并不会评判你的想法对不对，它只评判你能不能「活下去」。华尔街百年定律：对了趋势，输给了时间Leopold Aschenbrenner的悲剧，并非个案。第一个例子，是1998年的长期资本管理公司（LTCM）。他们有两个诺奖得主坐镇，数学模型完美无缺。结果，当年俄罗斯债务违约，市场非理性恐慌，他们的高杠杆直接爆仓。第二个例子，是Peter Thiel的Clarium Capital。这位教父坚信油价会涨，于是重仓。结果短期逆转，杠杆让他遭受巨大损失。一个对的逻辑，不等于一笔赚钱的交易。今天，这位与未婚妻共谋AI大局的硅谷天之骄子，也上了这份「聪明人的死亡名单」。最后，Leopold和他未婚妻，依然是世界上最懂AI的那批人之一。他手里还攥着50亿的Anthropic股权，如果AGI真的来了，他照样可能东山再起。但这次，华尔街给他、也给所有AI狂热者上了一课：在资本市场里，做房间里最聪明的人，并不能阻止你跌得粉身碎骨。有时候，自视甚高反而会加速你的毁灭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPYU":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":2,"07522":0.6,"07568":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"03034":0.6,".DJI":2,"NAPR":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"03086":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"07261":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"NDX":2,"UPRO":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"03455":0.6,".IXIC":2,"07266":0.6,"09834":0.6,"HIBL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"content":"美国人现在就是很疯，3月以来的行情几乎全靠杠杆在推动，全球都差不多，牛尾了","text":"美国人现在就是很疯，3月以来的行情几乎全靠杠杆在推动，全球都差不多，牛尾了","html":"美国人现在就是很疯，3月以来的行情几乎全靠杠杆在推动，全球都差不多，牛尾了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591379664766296,"gmtCreate":1785407940124,"gmtModify":1785407941997,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"能不能加俩0呢？公司也不回购这个价位难道还怕被套吗？","listText":"能不能加俩0呢？公司也不回购这个价位难道还怕被套吗？","text":"能不能加俩0呢？公司也不回购这个价位难道还怕被套吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591379664766296","repostId":"1148955973","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148955973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785407820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148955973?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士韩股股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148955973","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受消息影响，SK海力士 ADR 盘前转升0.9%，此前曾跌逾 4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64bdedf49ab1a11775875c87f1af08c4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"1120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK集团会长崔泰源首次在公开市场直接买入SK海力士股票，以实际行动展现其责任经营理念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国金融监督院30日披露的电子公告，崔泰源会长当天通过二级市场买入SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按当天收盘价每股132.2万韩元计算，此次买入金额约为47.9亿韩元（约48亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次买入后，崔泰源会长首次以个人名义持有SK海力士股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源一直未以个人名义持有SK海力士股份，而是通过作为最大股东的SK Square（SK스퀘어）维持对公司的控制权。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易完成后，崔泰源个人持有SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">包括SK Square持有的1.461亿股（持股比例20.00%）在内，最大股东及其关联方合计持有SK海力士1.46128151亿股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场普遍认为，此次增持不仅体现了崔泰源对人工智能（AI）存储器市场未来增长前景以及SK海力士中长期竞争力的坚定信心，同时也释放出其作为集团掌门人坚持责任经营的积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源于本月17日在韩国大韩商工会议所举办的济州夏季论坛上谈及SK海力士股价时表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“由于存储器始终是市场所需要的，因此从长期来看，股价会保持上升趋势。与其频繁买进卖出，不如长期持有，这才是更有利于财富保值的方法。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于近期股价波动较大的情况，他也表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“这只是股价上涨过快之后，市场逐步适应现实价值的一个过程。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士韩股股票</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士韩股股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 18:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受消息影响，SK海力士 ADR 盘前转升0.9%，此前曾跌逾 4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64bdedf49ab1a11775875c87f1af08c4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"1120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK集团会长崔泰源首次在公开市场直接买入SK海力士股票，以实际行动展现其责任经营理念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国金融监督院30日披露的电子公告，崔泰源会长当天通过二级市场买入SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按当天收盘价每股132.2万韩元计算，此次买入金额约为47.9亿韩元（约48亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次买入后，崔泰源会长首次以个人名义持有SK海力士股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源一直未以个人名义持有SK海力士股份，而是通过作为最大股东的SK Square（SK스퀘어）维持对公司的控制权。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易完成后，崔泰源个人持有SK海力士普通股3,620股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">包括SK Square持有的1.461亿股（持股比例20.00%）在内，最大股东及其关联方合计持有SK海力士1.46128151亿股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场普遍认为，此次增持不仅体现了崔泰源对人工智能（AI）存储器市场未来增长前景以及SK海力士中长期竞争力的坚定信心，同时也释放出其作为集团掌门人坚持责任经营的积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，崔泰源于本月17日在韩国大韩商工会议所举办的济州夏季论坛上谈及SK海力士股价时表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“由于存储器始终是市场所需要的，因此从长期来看，股价会保持上升趋势。与其频繁买进卖出，不如长期持有，这才是更有利于财富保值的方法。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于近期股价波动较大的情况，他也表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“这只是股价上涨过快之后，市场逐步适应现实价值的一个过程。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/79a68d4d1607e8a3d1dbd14c4d4283ce","relate_stocks":{"HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","07709":"XL二南方海力士","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SKHY":"SK海力士","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148955973","content_text":"据Newsis报道，SK集团会长崔泰源买入超3600股SK海力士。按今日SK海力士收盘价920美元计算，价值约合331万美元。受消息影响，SK海力士 ADR 盘前转升0.9%，此前曾跌逾 4%。SK集团会长崔泰源首次在公开市场直接买入SK海力士股票，以实际行动展现其责任经营理念。根据韩国金融监督院30日披露的电子公告，崔泰源会长当天通过二级市场买入SK海力士普通股3,620股。按当天收盘价每股132.2万韩元计算，此次买入金额约为47.9亿韩元（约48亿韩元）。此次买入后，崔泰源会长首次以个人名义持有SK海力士股票。此前，崔泰源一直未以个人名义持有SK海力士股份，而是通过作为最大股东的SK Square（SK스퀘어）维持对公司的控制权。此次交易完成后，崔泰源个人持有SK海力士普通股3,620股。包括SK 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 这特斯拉期权怎么玩的，被强平后直接就跌到2.6左右股价才到262，意思我如果补仓的话4成本卖put还能赚钱？这是打散户的脚吗试玩一手期权想赚权利金直接被割一万港币","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 这特斯拉期权怎么玩的，被强平后直接就跌到2.6左右股价才到262，意思我如果补仓的话4成本卖put还能赚钱？这是打散户的脚吗试玩一手期权想赚权利金直接被割一万港币","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这特斯拉期权怎么玩的，被强平后直接就跌到2.6左右股价才到262，意思我如果补仓的话4成本卖put还能赚钱？这是打散户的脚吗试玩一手期权想赚权利金直接被割一万港币","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a07a45dcd0ba045cbef9957135bf738","width":"1206","height":"2622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e404aef9e3c975770aacd8b4a401a3","width":"1206","height":"2622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750589b9ec87e43baad9d60002d8117e","width":"1206","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/411089065701816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3462396565804988","authorId":"3462396565804988","name":"逆向分析师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a030da24eb4cbe664584c68eca1c40df","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3462396565804988","idStr":"3462396565804988"},"content":"额，没懂你说的意思，你这不就是卖的265PUT在3月7日到期就要行权了，在收盘前几小时老虎会检查你保证金够不够行权的，结果发现不够老虎肯定不能让你被行权就不给他钱跑路啊，所以就替你强平掉以防被行权。要是单纯想吃权利金还是做垂直价差吧，在卖出下方做个反向买入护底","text":"额，没懂你说的意思，你这不就是卖的265PUT在3月7日到期就要行权了，在收盘前几小时老虎会检查你保证金够不够行权的，结果发现不够老虎肯定不能让你被行权就不给他钱跑路啊，所以就替你强平掉以防被行权。要是单纯想吃权利金还是做垂直价差吧，在卖出下方做个反向买入护底","html":"额，没懂你说的意思，你这不就是卖的265PUT在3月7日到期就要行权了，在收盘前几小时老虎会检查你保证金够不够行权的，结果发现不够老虎肯定不能让你被行权就不给他钱跑路啊，所以就替你强平掉以防被行权。要是单纯想吃权利金还是做垂直价差吧，在卖出下方做个反向买入护底"},{"author":{"id":"3562148271530289","authorId":"3562148271530289","name":"夜流沙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cdbfdfad31ab544ec1be7d1f1567e8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3562148271530289","idStr":"3562148271530289"},"content":"卖期权一般都不卖末日的，因为末日波动大，期权在下单前你就要想好是赚波动性的钱，还是时间价值的钱，你卖的这个二者都没有啊，卖方的难度可以说是买方难度的10倍以上，而且卖方哪怕你赚了很多次，一次踩雷就可能把十次的利润都赔光的","text":"卖期权一般都不卖末日的，因为末日波动大，期权在下单前你就要想好是赚波动性的钱，还是时间价值的钱，你卖的这个二者都没有啊，卖方的难度可以说是买方难度的10倍以上，而且卖方哪怕你赚了很多次，一次踩雷就可能把十次的利润都赔光的","html":"卖期权一般都不卖末日的，因为末日波动大，期权在下单前你就要想好是赚波动性的钱，还是时间价值的钱，你卖的这个二者都没有啊，卖方的难度可以说是买方难度的10倍以上，而且卖方哪怕你赚了很多次，一次踩雷就可能把十次的利润都赔光的"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558531179557592,"gmtCreate":1777391848597,"gmtModify":1777391851143,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"朗子就是不知道自己姓啥了？为了自己不惜拉全世界给你擦屁股垫背，核都不想交出来，自己油库爆了就该急了吧","listText":"朗子就是不知道自己姓啥了？为了自己不惜拉全世界给你擦屁股垫背，核都不想交出来，自己油库爆了就该急了吧","text":"朗子就是不知道自己姓啥了？为了自己不惜拉全世界给你擦屁股垫背，核都不想交出来，自己油库爆了就该急了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558531179557592","repostId":"1124107328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124107328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777388675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124107328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-28 23:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124107328","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722d11bf4969293456955d43d37c93bd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124107328","content_text":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558466148693904,"gmtCreate":1777376051205,"gmtModify":1777376053988,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"意思是看好自己的股票了？不要利息都赎回","listText":"意思是看好自己的股票了？不要利息都赎回","text":"意思是看好自己的股票了？不要利息都赎回","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558466148693904","repostId":"1132841794","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132841794","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777375742,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132841794?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-28 19:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美团：提前赎回本金14.814亿美元的2028年债券","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132841794","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，$美团(MPNGY)$公告，根据于2028年到期的零息可换股债券的条款及条件，公司于4月27日按未偿还本金金额的101.28%赎回该持有人的全部或部分2028年债券。截至本公告日期，本公司已收到赎回本金总额为14.814亿美元的2028年债券的赎回通知，且该提早赎回已完成。紧随提早赎回后，本金总额为18,600,000美元的2028年债券将仍然尚未偿还。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>公告，根据于2028年到期的零息可换股债券的条款及条件，公司于4月27日按未偿还本金金额的101.28%赎回该持有人的全部或部分2028年债券。截至本公告日期，本公司已收到赎回本金总额为14.814亿美元的2028年债券的赎回通知，且该提早赎回已完成。紧随提早赎回后，本金总额为18,600,000美元的2028年债券将仍然尚未偿还。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e58447babb409a21b6a11d2001bcaa\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"834\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团：提前赎回本金14.814亿美元的2028年债券\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 19:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>公告，根据于2028年到期的零息可换股债券的条款及条件，公司于4月27日按未偿还本金金额的101.28%赎回该持有人的全部或部分2028年债券。截至本公告日期，本公司已收到赎回本金总额为14.814亿美元的2028年债券的赎回通知，且该提早赎回已完成。紧随提早赎回后，本金总额为18,600,000美元的2028年债券将仍然尚未偿还。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e58447babb409a21b6a11d2001bcaa\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"834\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823039010.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576613038818368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":559568594855752,"gmtCreate":1777645200095,"gmtModify":1777645222524,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MCL2606\">$微型WTI原油2606(MCL2606)$</a> 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这个波动真是够大，要赚钱经历的回撤也不小，才能换取盈利前进那么点","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8453e3e6a2acc52e2d5d5d36a6359122","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559568594855752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410283162026032,"gmtCreate":1741176441368,"gmtModify":1741176445381,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪位高手解答一下这账上要留多少钱？要换成美元吗","listText":"哪位高手解答一下这账上要留多少钱？要换成美元吗","text":"哪位高手解答一下这账上要留多少钱？要换成美元吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6fd3e740c375575f1caba1d2d4f5c8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410283162026032","repostId":"1161530603","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161530603","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1741169942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161530603?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-05 18:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 特斯拉多空博弈激烈！可用这两种期权策略进行应对","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161530603","media":"期权女巫","summary":"近期 $特斯拉$ 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及\"买家罢工\"对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及&#34;买家罢工&#34;对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。</p><h2 id=\"id_2960037794\">一、看涨逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>特朗普力推汽车贷款利息抵税新政</p><p>特朗普在最新演讲中提出一揽子减税计划：&#34;我呼吁取消小费税、加班税和社会保障福利税。&#34;更引发市场关注的是，他计划为美国本土生产汽车的贷款利息提供税收优惠，誓言&#34;彻底激活汽车产业&#34;。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。</p></li><li><p>多重优惠刺激需求回暖</p></li></ol><p>面对2025年一季度销售放缓压力，特斯拉祭出组合拳：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>2月28日后购买Foundation系列Cybertruck电动皮卡可享终身免费超充</p></li><li><p>Model 3提供0首付0利率金融方案</p></li><li><p>老款Model Y清仓折扣<br/>虽然促销手段折射需求不及预期，但投资者将其解读为积极信号，周三盘前大涨显示市场看好二季度销售复苏。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_1406604143\">看涨期权策略：看涨期权牛市价差组合</h3><p><strong>结构</strong>：</p><p>‌‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 CALL BUY 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 CALL SELL 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入行权价为265美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>卖出行权价为275美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>最大收益：464美元</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：270.36美元</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de4603e1267b3e3a988c9f481d3a6681\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1419\"/></p><p><br/><strong>逻辑：</strong>在风险可控的前提下押注股价上涨至分析师一致目标价（335.98美元）。</p><h2 id=\"id_2293261659\">二、看空逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>多地市场销量滑坡</p></li></ol><ul style=\"\"><li><p>法国市场2月销量同比暴跌26%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉2月在华销量（含出口）仅3.06万辆，同比锐减49%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉在美国、欧洲和中国三大市场均表现疲软，三地销量同比均下滑。</p></li></ul><ol start=\"2\" style=\"\"><li><p>&#34;买家罢工&#34;现象发酵</p><p>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯在周一报告中称，销售疲软反映了“买家罢工”现象——CEO埃隆·马斯克日益政治化的行为疏远了特斯拉的核心客户群（倾向环保的左翼消费者）。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_115199486\">看跌期权策略：看跌期权熊市价差组合</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>结构：</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 PUT SELL 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">买入行权价为275美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出行权价为265美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">最大收益：474.5美元</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">盈亏平衡点：270.26美元</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc9ee5d8a35cc4ebd2746f73cff6b509\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">逻辑：对冲资金净流出（5日2.7亿美元）背景下测试262.84美元支撑位的下行风险</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">注：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 特斯拉多空博弈激烈！可用这两种期权策略进行应对</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 特斯拉多空博弈激烈！可用这两种期权策略进行应对\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-05 18:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及&#34;买家罢工&#34;对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。</p><h2 id=\"id_2960037794\">一、看涨逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>特朗普力推汽车贷款利息抵税新政</p><p>特朗普在最新演讲中提出一揽子减税计划：&#34;我呼吁取消小费税、加班税和社会保障福利税。&#34;更引发市场关注的是，他计划为美国本土生产汽车的贷款利息提供税收优惠，誓言&#34;彻底激活汽车产业&#34;。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。</p></li><li><p>多重优惠刺激需求回暖</p></li></ol><p>面对2025年一季度销售放缓压力，特斯拉祭出组合拳：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>2月28日后购买Foundation系列Cybertruck电动皮卡可享终身免费超充</p></li><li><p>Model 3提供0首付0利率金融方案</p></li><li><p>老款Model Y清仓折扣<br/>虽然促销手段折射需求不及预期，但投资者将其解读为积极信号，周三盘前大涨显示市场看好二季度销售复苏。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_1406604143\">看涨期权策略：看涨期权牛市价差组合</h3><p><strong>结构</strong>：</p><p>‌‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 CALL BUY 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 CALL SELL 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入行权价为265美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>卖出行权价为275美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>最大收益：464美元</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：270.36美元</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de4603e1267b3e3a988c9f481d3a6681\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1419\"/></p><p><br/><strong>逻辑：</strong>在风险可控的前提下押注股价上涨至分析师一致目标价（335.98美元）。</p><h2 id=\"id_2293261659\">二、看空逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>多地市场销量滑坡</p></li></ol><ul style=\"\"><li><p>法国市场2月销量同比暴跌26%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉2月在华销量（含出口）仅3.06万辆，同比锐减49%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉在美国、欧洲和中国三大市场均表现疲软，三地销量同比均下滑。</p></li></ul><ol start=\"2\" style=\"\"><li><p>&#34;买家罢工&#34;现象发酵</p><p>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯在周一报告中称，销售疲软反映了“买家罢工”现象——CEO埃隆·马斯克日益政治化的行为疏远了特斯拉的核心客户群（倾向环保的左翼消费者）。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_115199486\">看跌期权策略：看跌期权熊市价差组合</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>结构：</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 PUT SELL 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">买入行权价为275美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出行权价为265美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">最大收益：474.5美元</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">盈亏平衡点：270.26美元</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc9ee5d8a35cc4ebd2746f73cff6b509\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">逻辑：对冲资金净流出（5日2.7亿美元）背景下测试262.84美元支撑位的下行风险</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">注：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775d1226e1a74151383a7d012e179b82","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161530603","content_text":"近期 特斯拉 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及\"买家罢工\"对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。一、看涨逻辑特朗普力推汽车贷款利息抵税新政特朗普在最新演讲中提出一揽子减税计划：\"我呼吁取消小费税、加班税和社会保障福利税。\"更引发市场关注的是，他计划为美国本土生产汽车的贷款利息提供税收优惠，誓言\"彻底激活汽车产业\"。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。多重优惠刺激需求回暖面对2025年一季度销售放缓压力，特斯拉祭出组合拳：2月28日后购买Foundation系列Cybertruck电动皮卡可享终身免费超充Model 3提供0首付0利率金融方案老款Model Y清仓折扣虽然促销手段折射需求不及预期，但投资者将其解读为积极信号，周三盘前大涨显示市场看好二季度销售复苏。看涨期权策略：看涨期权牛市价差组合结构：‌‌$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  ‌买入行权价为265美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）卖出行权价为275美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）最大收益：464美元盈亏平衡点：270.36美元逻辑：在风险可控的前提下押注股价上涨至分析师一致目标价（335.98美元）。二、看空逻辑多地市场销量滑坡法国市场2月销量同比暴跌26%特斯拉2月在华销量（含出口）仅3.06万辆，同比锐减49%特斯拉在美国、欧洲和中国三大市场均表现疲软，三地销量同比均下滑。\"买家罢工\"现象发酵摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯在周一报告中称，销售疲软反映了“买家罢工”现象——CEO埃隆·马斯克日益政治化的行为疏远了特斯拉的核心客户群（倾向环保的左翼消费者）。看跌期权策略：看跌期权熊市价差组合结构：$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  ‌买入行权价为275美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）卖出行权价为265美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）最大收益：474.5美元盈亏平衡点：270.26美元逻辑：对冲资金净流出（5日2.7亿美元）背景下测试262.84美元支撑位的下行风险注：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4106371827704990","authorId":"4106371827704990","name":"天上冲蜗牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a79e1b5e3ff9e7fde1e71e851c611977","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4106371827704990","idStr":"4106371827704990"},"content":"sell put 吗？","text":"sell put 吗？","html":"sell put 吗？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507108009681600,"gmtCreate":1764836273803,"gmtModify":1764836275779,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$</a> 这只到底啥原因跌又啥原因涨起来了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$</a> 这只到底啥原因跌又啥原因涨起来了？","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 这只到底啥原因跌又啥原因涨起来了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507108009681600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437188372468592,"gmtCreate":1747748090072,"gmtModify":1747748091527,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 等下来了再吹牛吧，这么高吹个啥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 等下来了再吹牛吧，这么高吹个啥","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等下来了再吹牛吧，这么高吹个啥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437188372468592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4135341184423600","authorId":"4135341184423600","name":"kasea","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ad72ac8f825be1aa2282fb4a810bf9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4135341184423600","idStr":"4135341184423600"},"content":"暂时下不来了。老马说了未来五年继续任职","text":"暂时下不来了。老马说了未来五年继续任职","html":"暂时下不来了。老马说了未来五年继续任职"},{"author":{"id":"3441623812793451","authorId":"3441623812793451","name":"牛牛 股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f5f82adcebf9af1a2da214a2dcf7c9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3441623812793451","idStr":"3441623812793451"},"content":"下来了又上不去了[流泪]","text":"下来了又上不去了[流泪]","html":"下来了又上不去了[流泪]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}