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2021-06-17

I can’t wait for these people to eat their words and for people to wake up to how shitty and corrupted MSM really is once MOASS starts absolutely disgusting pigs

Why a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote>

2021-06-02

what about the NFT prospects what about the e-sports branch? Motley fool man only fools would believe you

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-14

LOL this stock has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore it is all about the math DYDD guys don’t believe what you see on the news.

GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>

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can’t wait for these people to eat their words and for people to wake up to how shitty and corrupted MSM really is once MOASS starts absolutely disgusting pigs","listText":"I can’t wait for these people to eat their words and for people to wake up to how shitty and corrupted MSM really is once MOASS starts absolutely disgusting pigs","text":"I can’t wait for these people to eat their words and for people to wake up to how shitty and corrupted MSM really is once MOASS starts absolutely disgusting pigs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161725040","repostId":"1133173445","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133173445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623899282,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133173445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133173445","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.\n\nCould insider sales of me","content":"<p>  Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.  Could insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.</p><p><blockquote>大量内幕抛售是股票价格虚高的警告信号。meme股票的内幕抛售是否预示着其股价即将暴跌？实证研究表明答案是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站GME（+0.21%）和AMC院线控股AMC（-6.54%）董事的大量股票出售并没有让大多数理性投资者感到惊讶。很明显，这些和其他模因股票的当前价格被大大夸大了。事实上，投资者应该将AMC以过高的价格发行新股来筹集资金视为一个警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> Critics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.</p><p><blockquote>批评者可能会痛斥这种内幕交易的机会主义，理由是公司治理大师鼓励董事所有权与公众股东的利益保持一致。但是谁能责怪他们呢？令人惊讶的是，更多的外部股东并没有接受抛售信号。对于精明的投资者来说，扫描内幕交易以寻找未来好消息或坏消息的迹象是很常见的。根据《内幕交易投资情报》一书的作者、密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun的研究，总体内幕交易水平预示着长达两年的股票总回报。</blockquote></p><p> That said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，一些内幕交易根本不包含任何信号，因为董事在需要维持强制性所有权水平时买入，在需要现金或分散投资时卖出。此外，内部人士在交易时面临声誉和法律风险，因此要小心不要发出囤积好消息或坏消息的信号，以免他们转向不道德或非法的内幕交易。</blockquote></p><p> But these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.</p><p><blockquote>但这些模因股票案例似乎更清晰。例如，在AMC，许多董事几乎在同一时间大量出售股票，接近该公司最近的股票发行。杜伦大学会计学教授何冠明及其同事的研究表明，集中的内幕股票抛售与股价崩盘风险的增加有关。这是显而易见的：无论是投资者、策略师还是经济学家，内部人士比外部人士知道得更多。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能看出市场变化无常的特征会导致逆转。但他的研究支持这样一种观点，即内部人士对未来股价崩盘风险的预期——无论来自何种来源——确实会导致他们减持股票。特别是，有证据表明内幕销售与未来15个月的崩盘风险相关。</blockquote></p><p> Such research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.</p><p><blockquote>在模因股票的奇异背景下，这样的研究可能特别有意义。与传统股票交易相比，内部人士交易模因股票有望获得更大的利润，而且鉴于不知情交易者的噪音交易程度更大，他们的交易信息也更丰富。</blockquote></p><p> Research on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.</p><p><blockquote>对过去结果的研究并不能保证未来的结果，但加上常识和对所有泡沫最终都会破裂的认识，我愿意下自己的赌注。15个月的时间框架将使游戏驿站泡沫在2022年第一季度破裂，AMC在第三季度左右破裂。在购买任何一只股票之前，我肯定会同时下注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.  Could insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.</p><p><blockquote>大量内幕抛售是股票价格虚高的警告信号。meme股票的内幕抛售是否预示着其股价即将暴跌？实证研究表明答案是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站GME（+0.21%）和AMC院线控股AMC（-6.54%）董事的大量股票出售并没有让大多数理性投资者感到惊讶。很明显，这些和其他模因股票的当前价格被大大夸大了。事实上，投资者应该将AMC以过高的价格发行新股来筹集资金视为一个警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> Critics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.</p><p><blockquote>批评者可能会痛斥这种内幕交易的机会主义，理由是公司治理大师鼓励董事所有权与公众股东的利益保持一致。但是谁能责怪他们呢？令人惊讶的是，更多的外部股东并没有接受抛售信号。对于精明的投资者来说，扫描内幕交易以寻找未来好消息或坏消息的迹象是很常见的。根据《内幕交易投资情报》一书的作者、密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun的研究，总体内幕交易水平预示着长达两年的股票总回报。</blockquote></p><p> That said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，一些内幕交易根本不包含任何信号，因为董事在需要维持强制性所有权水平时买入，在需要现金或分散投资时卖出。此外，内部人士在交易时面临声誉和法律风险，因此要小心不要发出囤积好消息或坏消息的信号，以免他们转向不道德或非法的内幕交易。</blockquote></p><p> But these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.</p><p><blockquote>但这些模因股票案例似乎更清晰。例如，在AMC，许多董事几乎在同一时间大量出售股票，接近该公司最近的股票发行。杜伦大学会计学教授何冠明及其同事的研究表明，集中的内幕股票抛售与股价崩盘风险的增加有关。这是显而易见的：无论是投资者、策略师还是经济学家，内部人士比外部人士知道得更多。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能看出市场变化无常的特征会导致逆转。但他的研究支持这样一种观点，即内部人士对未来股价崩盘风险的预期——无论来自何种来源——确实会导致他们减持股票。特别是，有证据表明内幕销售与未来15个月的崩盘风险相关。</blockquote></p><p> Such research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.</p><p><blockquote>在模因股票的奇异背景下，这样的研究可能特别有意义。与传统股票交易相比，内部人士交易模因股票有望获得更大的利润，而且鉴于不知情交易者的噪音交易程度更大，他们的交易信息也更丰富。</blockquote></p><p> Research on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.</p><p><blockquote>对过去结果的研究并不能保证未来的结果，但加上常识和对所有泡沫最终都会破裂的认识，我愿意下自己的赌注。15个月的时间框架将使游戏驿站泡沫在2022年第一季度破裂，AMC在第三季度左右破裂。在购买任何一只股票之前，我肯定会同时下注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-crash-in-meme-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-looks-more-likely-now-11623810848?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-crash-in-meme-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-looks-more-likely-now-11623810848?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1133173445","content_text":"Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.\n\nCould insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.\nThe substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.\nCritics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.\nThat said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.\nBut these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.\nOf course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.\nSuch research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.\nResearch on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113725555,"gmtCreate":1622641662577,"gmtModify":1634099671762,"author":{"id":"3561453607729762","authorId":"3561453607729762","name":"iamnickname","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8427d076988e90450fddb882a08fbbe5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561453607729762","idStr":"3561453607729762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"what about the NFT prospects what about the e-sports branch? Motley fool man only fools would believe you","listText":"what about the NFT prospects what about the e-sports branch? Motley fool man only fools would believe you","text":"what about the NFT prospects what about the e-sports branch? Motley fool man only fools would believe you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113725555","repostId":"2140223411","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344506104,"gmtCreate":1618413092008,"gmtModify":1634293094429,"author":{"id":"3561453607729762","authorId":"3561453607729762","name":"iamnickname","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8427d076988e90450fddb882a08fbbe5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561453607729762","idStr":"3561453607729762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL this stock has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore it is all about the math DYDD guys don’t believe what you see on the news.&nbsp;","listText":"LOL this stock has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore it is all about the math DYDD guys don’t believe what you see on the news.&nbsp;","text":"LOL this stock has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore it is all about the math DYDD guys don’t believe what you see on the news.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344506104","repostId":"1190580837","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190580837","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618369183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190580837?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 10:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190580837","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere abov","content":"<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation</p><p><blockquote>尝试证明游戏驿站的估值合理</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1119aca9f23a3b0f456c433b85379801\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"895\"><span>AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our&nbsp;Focus List: Long positionin the stock&nbsp;in late January.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的基本面，游戏驿站不值得以每股45美元以上的价格持有，正如我们在1月底关闭焦点名单时所解释的那样：该股的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the stock&nbsp;went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该股继续攀升至347美元，盘中甚至更高，然后又像过山车一样回到185美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80950e93ac1cd2d0dbc8566c969c599\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.</p><p><blockquote>为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期被高估的程度有多疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明347美元的股价是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> undefined&nbsp;<b>Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s</b></p><p><blockquote>未定义<b>347美元的疯狂”解释：这意味着比梅西百货更多的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> To justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:</p><p><blockquote>为了证明每股347美元的合理性，我们的反向贴现现金流(DCF)模型显示游戏驿站必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>improve its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>grow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the&nbsp;projected&nbsp;video&nbsp;game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将其利润率提高至5.5%（2010-19年的10年平均值为3.9%，2008年的历史高点为4.8%）以及</li></ul><ul><li>到2030年，收入每年复合增长17%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站到2030年的收入将接近210亿美元，超过梅西百货、AutoZone和Chewy过去12个月(TTM)的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景1</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89fba2f9280e06a4e5c7885cb3b450d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，从2009年到2019年，游戏驿站的收入每年复合下降3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Still Crazy at $185</b></p><p><blockquote><b>185美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:</p><p><blockquote>为了深入了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示公司必须采取哪些措施来证明每股185美元的合理性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and</li>  <li>grow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提高至4.8%（2008年创历史新高，2019年为0.7%），并</li><li>到2027年，收入每年复合增长15%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站在2027年的收入将超过110亿美元，比游戏驿站2012年创纪录的96亿美元收入以及Nordstrom、Advance Auto Parts和Chewy的TTM收入高出19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景2</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19648dde2ad7aee4127bc22c9a9652e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sure, stock prices can be irrational</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当然，股票价格可能是非理性的</b></blockquote></p><p> We are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说基本面应该是你投资过程的100%。我们的目的只是加深对以不同价格持有股票的基本风险的了解。</blockquote></p><p> We’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. &nbsp;In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说你不会通过股票交易赚很多钱。你可能会。我们的目标是提供一些基本观点，为其他投资策略提供信息和补充。换句话说，如果你有10个伟大的技术想法，你可能会喜欢跑赢大盘那些基本面最好的，跑输大盘那些基本面较弱的。</blockquote></p><p> With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.</p><p><blockquote>通过更好地掌握基本面，投资者可以更好地了解何时买入和卖出，并知道当他们在一定水平上持有股票时他们承担了多大的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-14 10:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation</p><p><blockquote>尝试证明游戏驿站的估值合理</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1119aca9f23a3b0f456c433b85379801\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"895\"><span>AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our&nbsp;Focus List: Long positionin the stock&nbsp;in late January.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的基本面，游戏驿站不值得以每股45美元以上的价格持有，正如我们在1月底关闭焦点名单时所解释的那样：该股的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the stock&nbsp;went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该股继续攀升至347美元，盘中甚至更高，然后又像过山车一样回到185美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80950e93ac1cd2d0dbc8566c969c599\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.</p><p><blockquote>为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期被高估的程度有多疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明347美元的股价是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> undefined&nbsp;<b>Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s</b></p><p><blockquote>未定义<b>347美元的疯狂”解释：这意味着比梅西百货更多的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> To justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:</p><p><blockquote>为了证明每股347美元的合理性，我们的反向贴现现金流(DCF)模型显示游戏驿站必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>improve its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>grow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the&nbsp;projected&nbsp;video&nbsp;game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将其利润率提高至5.5%（2010-19年的10年平均值为3.9%，2008年的历史高点为4.8%）以及</li></ul><ul><li>到2030年，收入每年复合增长17%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站到2030年的收入将接近210亿美元，超过梅西百货、AutoZone和Chewy过去12个月(TTM)的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景1</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89fba2f9280e06a4e5c7885cb3b450d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，从2009年到2019年，游戏驿站的收入每年复合下降3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Still Crazy at $185</b></p><p><blockquote><b>185美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:</p><p><blockquote>为了深入了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示公司必须采取哪些措施来证明每股185美元的合理性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and</li>  <li>grow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提高至4.8%（2008年创历史新高，2019年为0.7%），并</li><li>到2027年，收入每年复合增长15%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站在2027年的收入将超过110亿美元，比游戏驿站2012年创纪录的96亿美元收入以及Nordstrom、Advance Auto Parts和Chewy的TTM收入高出19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景2</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19648dde2ad7aee4127bc22c9a9652e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sure, stock prices can be irrational</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当然，股票价格可能是非理性的</b></blockquote></p><p> We are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说基本面应该是你投资过程的100%。我们的目的只是加深对以不同价格持有股票的基本风险的了解。</blockquote></p><p> We’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. &nbsp;In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说你不会通过股票交易赚很多钱。你可能会。我们的目标是提供一些基本观点，为其他投资策略提供信息和补充。换句话说，如果你有10个伟大的技术想法，你可能会喜欢跑赢大盘那些基本面最好的，跑输大盘那些基本面较弱的。</blockquote></p><p> With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.</p><p><blockquote>通过更好地掌握基本面，投资者可以更好地了解何时买入和卖出，并知道当他们在一定水平上持有股票时他们承担了多大的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190580837","content_text":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long positionin the stock in late January.\nNevertheless, the stock went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nTo give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.\nundefined Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s\nTo justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:\n\nimprove its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and\n\n\ngrow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the projected video game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nFor reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.\nStill Crazy at $185\nFor perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:\n\nimmediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and\ngrow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nSure, stock prices can be irrational\nWe are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.\nWe’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies.  In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.\nWith a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":161725040,"gmtCreate":1623941299980,"gmtModify":1634025528276,"author":{"id":"3561453607729762","authorId":"3561453607729762","name":"iamnickname","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8427d076988e90450fddb882a08fbbe5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561453607729762","idStr":"3561453607729762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I can’t wait for these people to eat their words and for people to wake up to how shitty and corrupted MSM really is once MOASS starts absolutely disgusting pigs","listText":"I can’t wait for these people to eat their words and for people to wake up to how shitty and corrupted MSM really is once MOASS starts absolutely disgusting pigs","text":"I can’t wait for these people to eat their words and for people to wake up to how shitty and corrupted MSM really is once MOASS starts absolutely disgusting pigs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161725040","repostId":"1133173445","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133173445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623899282,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133173445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133173445","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.\n\nCould insider sales of me","content":"<p>  Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.  Could insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.</p><p><blockquote>大量内幕抛售是股票价格虚高的警告信号。meme股票的内幕抛售是否预示着其股价即将暴跌？实证研究表明答案是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站GME（+0.21%）和AMC院线控股AMC（-6.54%）董事的大量股票出售并没有让大多数理性投资者感到惊讶。很明显，这些和其他模因股票的当前价格被大大夸大了。事实上，投资者应该将AMC以过高的价格发行新股来筹集资金视为一个警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> Critics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.</p><p><blockquote>批评者可能会痛斥这种内幕交易的机会主义，理由是公司治理大师鼓励董事所有权与公众股东的利益保持一致。但是谁能责怪他们呢？令人惊讶的是，更多的外部股东并没有接受抛售信号。对于精明的投资者来说，扫描内幕交易以寻找未来好消息或坏消息的迹象是很常见的。根据《内幕交易投资情报》一书的作者、密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun的研究，总体内幕交易水平预示着长达两年的股票总回报。</blockquote></p><p> That said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，一些内幕交易根本不包含任何信号，因为董事在需要维持强制性所有权水平时买入，在需要现金或分散投资时卖出。此外，内部人士在交易时面临声誉和法律风险，因此要小心不要发出囤积好消息或坏消息的信号，以免他们转向不道德或非法的内幕交易。</blockquote></p><p> But these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.</p><p><blockquote>但这些模因股票案例似乎更清晰。例如，在AMC，许多董事几乎在同一时间大量出售股票，接近该公司最近的股票发行。杜伦大学会计学教授何冠明及其同事的研究表明，集中的内幕股票抛售与股价崩盘风险的增加有关。这是显而易见的：无论是投资者、策略师还是经济学家，内部人士比外部人士知道得更多。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能看出市场变化无常的特征会导致逆转。但他的研究支持这样一种观点，即内部人士对未来股价崩盘风险的预期——无论来自何种来源——确实会导致他们减持股票。特别是，有证据表明内幕销售与未来15个月的崩盘风险相关。</blockquote></p><p> Such research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.</p><p><blockquote>在模因股票的奇异背景下，这样的研究可能特别有意义。与传统股票交易相比，内部人士交易模因股票有望获得更大的利润，而且鉴于不知情交易者的噪音交易程度更大，他们的交易信息也更丰富。</blockquote></p><p> Research on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.</p><p><blockquote>对过去结果的研究并不能保证未来的结果，但加上常识和对所有泡沫最终都会破裂的认识，我愿意下自己的赌注。15个月的时间框架将使游戏驿站泡沫在2022年第一季度破裂，AMC在第三季度左右破裂。在购买任何一只股票之前，我肯定会同时下注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.  Could insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.</p><p><blockquote>大量内幕抛售是股票价格虚高的警告信号。meme股票的内幕抛售是否预示着其股价即将暴跌？实证研究表明答案是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站GME（+0.21%）和AMC院线控股AMC（-6.54%）董事的大量股票出售并没有让大多数理性投资者感到惊讶。很明显，这些和其他模因股票的当前价格被大大夸大了。事实上，投资者应该将AMC以过高的价格发行新股来筹集资金视为一个警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> Critics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.</p><p><blockquote>批评者可能会痛斥这种内幕交易的机会主义，理由是公司治理大师鼓励董事所有权与公众股东的利益保持一致。但是谁能责怪他们呢？令人惊讶的是，更多的外部股东并没有接受抛售信号。对于精明的投资者来说，扫描内幕交易以寻找未来好消息或坏消息的迹象是很常见的。根据《内幕交易投资情报》一书的作者、密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun的研究，总体内幕交易水平预示着长达两年的股票总回报。</blockquote></p><p> That said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，一些内幕交易根本不包含任何信号，因为董事在需要维持强制性所有权水平时买入，在需要现金或分散投资时卖出。此外，内部人士在交易时面临声誉和法律风险，因此要小心不要发出囤积好消息或坏消息的信号，以免他们转向不道德或非法的内幕交易。</blockquote></p><p> But these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.</p><p><blockquote>但这些模因股票案例似乎更清晰。例如，在AMC，许多董事几乎在同一时间大量出售股票，接近该公司最近的股票发行。杜伦大学会计学教授何冠明及其同事的研究表明，集中的内幕股票抛售与股价崩盘风险的增加有关。这是显而易见的：无论是投资者、策略师还是经济学家，内部人士比外部人士知道得更多。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能看出市场变化无常的特征会导致逆转。但他的研究支持这样一种观点，即内部人士对未来股价崩盘风险的预期——无论来自何种来源——确实会导致他们减持股票。特别是，有证据表明内幕销售与未来15个月的崩盘风险相关。</blockquote></p><p> Such research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.</p><p><blockquote>在模因股票的奇异背景下，这样的研究可能特别有意义。与传统股票交易相比，内部人士交易模因股票有望获得更大的利润，而且鉴于不知情交易者的噪音交易程度更大，他们的交易信息也更丰富。</blockquote></p><p> Research on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.</p><p><blockquote>对过去结果的研究并不能保证未来的结果，但加上常识和对所有泡沫最终都会破裂的认识，我愿意下自己的赌注。15个月的时间框架将使游戏驿站泡沫在2022年第一季度破裂，AMC在第三季度左右破裂。在购买任何一只股票之前，我肯定会同时下注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-crash-in-meme-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-looks-more-likely-now-11623810848?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-crash-in-meme-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-looks-more-likely-now-11623810848?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1133173445","content_text":"Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.\n\nCould insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.\nThe substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.\nCritics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.\nThat said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.\nBut these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.\nOf course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.\nSuch research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.\nResearch on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113725555,"gmtCreate":1622641662577,"gmtModify":1634099671762,"author":{"id":"3561453607729762","authorId":"3561453607729762","name":"iamnickname","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8427d076988e90450fddb882a08fbbe5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561453607729762","idStr":"3561453607729762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"what about the NFT prospects what about the e-sports branch? Motley fool man only fools would believe you","listText":"what about the NFT prospects what about the e-sports branch? Motley fool man only fools would believe you","text":"what about the NFT prospects what about the e-sports branch? Motley fool man only fools would believe you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113725555","repostId":"2140223411","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344506104,"gmtCreate":1618413092008,"gmtModify":1634293094429,"author":{"id":"3561453607729762","authorId":"3561453607729762","name":"iamnickname","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8427d076988e90450fddb882a08fbbe5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561453607729762","idStr":"3561453607729762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL this stock has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore it is all about the math DYDD guys don’t believe what you see on the news.&nbsp;","listText":"LOL this stock has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore it is all about the math DYDD guys don’t believe what you see on the news.&nbsp;","text":"LOL this stock has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore it is all about the math DYDD guys don’t believe what you see on the news.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344506104","repostId":"1190580837","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190580837","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618369183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190580837?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 10:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190580837","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere abov","content":"<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation</p><p><blockquote>尝试证明游戏驿站的估值合理</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1119aca9f23a3b0f456c433b85379801\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"895\"><span>AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our&nbsp;Focus List: Long positionin the stock&nbsp;in late January.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的基本面，游戏驿站不值得以每股45美元以上的价格持有，正如我们在1月底关闭焦点名单时所解释的那样：该股的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the stock&nbsp;went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该股继续攀升至347美元，盘中甚至更高，然后又像过山车一样回到185美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80950e93ac1cd2d0dbc8566c969c599\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.</p><p><blockquote>为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期被高估的程度有多疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明347美元的股价是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> undefined&nbsp;<b>Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s</b></p><p><blockquote>未定义<b>347美元的疯狂”解释：这意味着比梅西百货更多的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> To justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:</p><p><blockquote>为了证明每股347美元的合理性，我们的反向贴现现金流(DCF)模型显示游戏驿站必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>improve its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>grow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the&nbsp;projected&nbsp;video&nbsp;game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将其利润率提高至5.5%（2010-19年的10年平均值为3.9%，2008年的历史高点为4.8%）以及</li></ul><ul><li>到2030年，收入每年复合增长17%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站到2030年的收入将接近210亿美元，超过梅西百货、AutoZone和Chewy过去12个月(TTM)的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景1</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89fba2f9280e06a4e5c7885cb3b450d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，从2009年到2019年，游戏驿站的收入每年复合下降3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Still Crazy at $185</b></p><p><blockquote><b>185美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:</p><p><blockquote>为了深入了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示公司必须采取哪些措施来证明每股185美元的合理性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and</li>  <li>grow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提高至4.8%（2008年创历史新高，2019年为0.7%），并</li><li>到2027年，收入每年复合增长15%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站在2027年的收入将超过110亿美元，比游戏驿站2012年创纪录的96亿美元收入以及Nordstrom、Advance Auto Parts和Chewy的TTM收入高出19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景2</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19648dde2ad7aee4127bc22c9a9652e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sure, stock prices can be irrational</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当然，股票价格可能是非理性的</b></blockquote></p><p> We are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说基本面应该是你投资过程的100%。我们的目的只是加深对以不同价格持有股票的基本风险的了解。</blockquote></p><p> We’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. &nbsp;In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说你不会通过股票交易赚很多钱。你可能会。我们的目标是提供一些基本观点，为其他投资策略提供信息和补充。换句话说，如果你有10个伟大的技术想法，你可能会喜欢跑赢大盘那些基本面最好的，跑输大盘那些基本面较弱的。</blockquote></p><p> With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.</p><p><blockquote>通过更好地掌握基本面，投资者可以更好地了解何时买入和卖出，并知道当他们在一定水平上持有股票时他们承担了多大的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-14 10:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation</p><p><blockquote>尝试证明游戏驿站的估值合理</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1119aca9f23a3b0f456c433b85379801\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"895\"><span>AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our&nbsp;Focus List: Long positionin the stock&nbsp;in late January.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的基本面，游戏驿站不值得以每股45美元以上的价格持有，正如我们在1月底关闭焦点名单时所解释的那样：该股的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the stock&nbsp;went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该股继续攀升至347美元，盘中甚至更高，然后又像过山车一样回到185美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80950e93ac1cd2d0dbc8566c969c599\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.</p><p><blockquote>为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期被高估的程度有多疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明347美元的股价是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> undefined&nbsp;<b>Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s</b></p><p><blockquote>未定义<b>347美元的疯狂”解释：这意味着比梅西百货更多的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> To justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:</p><p><blockquote>为了证明每股347美元的合理性，我们的反向贴现现金流(DCF)模型显示游戏驿站必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>improve its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>grow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the&nbsp;projected&nbsp;video&nbsp;game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将其利润率提高至5.5%（2010-19年的10年平均值为3.9%，2008年的历史高点为4.8%）以及</li></ul><ul><li>到2030年，收入每年复合增长17%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站到2030年的收入将接近210亿美元，超过梅西百货、AutoZone和Chewy过去12个月(TTM)的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景1</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89fba2f9280e06a4e5c7885cb3b450d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，从2009年到2019年，游戏驿站的收入每年复合下降3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Still Crazy at $185</b></p><p><blockquote><b>185美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:</p><p><blockquote>为了深入了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示公司必须采取哪些措施来证明每股185美元的合理性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and</li>  <li>grow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts&nbsp;and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提高至4.8%（2008年创历史新高，2019年为0.7%），并</li><li>到2027年，收入每年复合增长15%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站在2027年的收入将超过110亿美元，比游戏驿站2012年创纪录的96亿美元收入以及Nordstrom、Advance Auto Parts和Chewy的TTM收入高出19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景2</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19648dde2ad7aee4127bc22c9a9652e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sure, stock prices can be irrational</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当然，股票价格可能是非理性的</b></blockquote></p><p> We are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说基本面应该是你投资过程的100%。我们的目的只是加深对以不同价格持有股票的基本风险的了解。</blockquote></p><p> We’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. &nbsp;In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说你不会通过股票交易赚很多钱。你可能会。我们的目标是提供一些基本观点，为其他投资策略提供信息和补充。换句话说，如果你有10个伟大的技术想法，你可能会喜欢跑赢大盘那些基本面最好的，跑输大盘那些基本面较弱的。</blockquote></p><p> With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.</p><p><blockquote>通过更好地掌握基本面，投资者可以更好地了解何时买入和卖出，并知道当他们在一定水平上持有股票时他们承担了多大的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190580837","content_text":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long positionin the stock in late January.\nNevertheless, the stock went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nTo give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.\nundefined Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s\nTo justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:\n\nimprove its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and\n\n\ngrow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the projected video game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nFor reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.\nStill Crazy at $185\nFor perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:\n\nimmediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and\ngrow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nSure, stock prices can be irrational\nWe are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.\nWe’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies.  In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.\nWith a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}