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2021-12-31

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2021-12-30

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2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote>

2021-12-29

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2021-12-26

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2021-12-25

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Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote>

2021-12-20

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2021-12-10

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2021-12-07

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2021-12-04

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2021-11-29

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2021-11-29

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2021-11-24

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2021-11-17

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Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德在鲍威尔身上获益。</blockquote>

2021-11-08

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up","listText":"Nice up","text":"Nice up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692898420","repostId":"2195468434","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692346597,"gmtCreate":1640860150036,"gmtModify":1640860150288,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing up","listText":"Testing up","text":"Testing up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692346597","repostId":"1190455875","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190455875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640849654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190455875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 15:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190455875","media":"Realmoney","summary":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&amp;P 500 and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>我们很快就会看到许多关于股市如何度过美好的一年的新闻报道。这些故事将引用标普500和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>道琼斯上涨 100% 和 20%。股票如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL) 上涨了约 40%，将作为今年表现良好的例子。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.</p><p><blockquote>对于与大盘股和高级指数表现挂钩的投资组合来说，此类回报是个好消息。许多退休和 401(k) 账户都有分配选项，从这种强劲的表现中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p>However, the big story this year isn&#39;t how well the indexes have performed --  it&#39;s how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今年的大新闻不是指数的表现有多好，而是它们在多大程度上未能反映更广泛市场的真实情况。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10只个股在标普500权重的30%左右，25只个股接近一半。这些股票表现良好，因此指数表现非常好。</blockquote></p><p>The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.</p><p><blockquote>这些指数本质上是大盘股的特定资产类别，该资产类别今年表现非常好。然而，如果我们深入挖掘，这幅画就没那么吸引人了。</blockquote></p><p>If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>, close to 85% were trailing the S&amp;P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> stated, &#34;if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>如果你只看交易价格低于20美元的股票，那么50%的股票从高点下跌了20%或更多。63% 低于 10 美元的股票下跌 20% 或更多。— James DePorre (@RevShark) 2021 年 12 月 29 日了解指数如何夸大大盘表现的最简单方法之一是查看美国股票基金产生的回报。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">街道</a>截至 11 月底，近 85% 的股票落后于标普500，而 12 月份二级股票再次遭受重创时，这一数字可能已经下降。星期二<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>声明称：“如果你把高盛对冲基金 VIP 篮子今年迄今为止的总回报率增加两倍，你仍然低于标普500。”</blockquote></p><p>Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.</p><p><blockquote>除了大盘股之外，市场有多么糟糕的另一个例子是，近 60% 的股票都低于 200 天简单移动平均价格。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。这占所有股票的 42.9%，但指数目前接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p>There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>有大量统计数据说明了 2021 年市场的两级性质，但它们很少受到关注，因为这些指数很容易成为头条新闻，而且对大多数财经媒体和传统华尔街都有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。</blockquote></p><p>For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> (GME) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数股票来说，市场在二月份见顶，并在过去九个月陷入熊市。社交媒体交易的狂热标志着二月份的顶峰，当时股票等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>（GME）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>(AMC) 被推高，部分原因是空头挤压以及 Reddit 和 Discord 聊天室上的协调交易者。</blockquote></p><p>These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with &#34;diamond hands&#34; eventually gave up.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易员继续积极推动各种交易，大多是小盘股和交易量稀少的股票，但创造持续走势的能力很快减弱，那些一直在推动用“钻石手”持股的人最终放弃了。</blockquote></p><p>This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态以及许多使用刺激资金进行交易的新交易者和小交易者的损失是损害许多次级股票和小盘股的部分原因，但今年的另一个主要问题是特殊目的收购公司或 SPAC 的涌入。</blockquote></p><p>In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO&#39;ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，超过600家SPAC首次公开募股，筹集了超过1600亿美元的资金。其中许多 SPAC 的基本面并不理想，但它们吸引了受到 10 美元赎回保护的投机者。如果SPAC可以在某个时候以同样的价格赎回，那么以10美元的价格赞助和出售SPAC是很容易的。</blockquote></p><p>A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>大量 SPAC 的交易价格处于低点，并从其他投机行业吸引了资金。</blockquote></p><p>There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.</p><p><blockquote>超过 570 家 SPAC 仍在寻求交易，其中约 90 家已被清算。即使 SPAC 达成交易，随着 10 美元的赎回价格消失，许多人的交易也非常糟糕，而那些持有 PIPE 股票的人正试图收回一些资本。</blockquote></p><p>SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>SPAC 在这一年中吸收了大量资本，它们的糟糕表现是许多小型股票也表现不佳的一个重要原因。不仅有大量 SPAC 处于低点交易，而且它们还从其他投机行业吸引了资本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，生物技术和大麻这两个行业因流动性缺乏而遭受重创。两家公司的交易价格均接近低点，今年均出现大幅亏损。总体而言，约有 2,700 只股票，占所有股票的 32%，处于 12 个月低点的 10% 以内。</blockquote></p><p>Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.</p><p><blockquote>请准备好了解今年市场表现如何的故事，但事实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>表现非常好的资产类别是大盘股。2021年，更广泛的市场经历了非常艰难的时期，但除非你做一些挖掘，否则你不会知道。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Realmoney</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&amp;P 500 and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>我们很快就会看到许多关于股市如何度过美好的一年的新闻报道。这些故事将引用标普500和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>道琼斯上涨 100% 和 20%。股票如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL) 上涨了约 40%，将作为今年表现良好的例子。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.</p><p><blockquote>对于与大盘股和高级指数表现挂钩的投资组合来说，此类回报是个好消息。许多退休和 401(k) 账户都有分配选项，从这种强劲的表现中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p>However, the big story this year isn&#39;t how well the indexes have performed --  it&#39;s how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今年的大新闻不是指数的表现有多好，而是它们在多大程度上未能反映更广泛市场的真实情况。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10只个股在标普500权重的30%左右，25只个股接近一半。这些股票表现良好，因此指数表现非常好。</blockquote></p><p>The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.</p><p><blockquote>这些指数本质上是大盘股的特定资产类别，该资产类别今年表现非常好。然而，如果我们深入挖掘，这幅画就没那么吸引人了。</blockquote></p><p>If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>, close to 85% were trailing the S&amp;P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> stated, &#34;if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>如果你只看交易价格低于20美元的股票，那么50%的股票从高点下跌了20%或更多。63% 低于 10 美元的股票下跌 20% 或更多。— James DePorre (@RevShark) 2021 年 12 月 29 日了解指数如何夸大大盘表现的最简单方法之一是查看美国股票基金产生的回报。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">街道</a>截至 11 月底，近 85% 的股票落后于标普500，而 12 月份二级股票再次遭受重创时，这一数字可能已经下降。星期二<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>声明称：“如果你把高盛对冲基金 VIP 篮子今年迄今为止的总回报率增加两倍，你仍然低于标普500。”</blockquote></p><p>Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.</p><p><blockquote>除了大盘股之外，市场有多么糟糕的另一个例子是，近 60% 的股票都低于 200 天简单移动平均价格。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。这占所有股票的 42.9%，但指数目前接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p>There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>有大量统计数据说明了 2021 年市场的两级性质，但它们很少受到关注，因为这些指数很容易成为头条新闻，而且对大多数财经媒体和传统华尔街都有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。</blockquote></p><p>For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> (GME) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数股票来说，市场在二月份见顶，并在过去九个月陷入熊市。社交媒体交易的狂热标志着二月份的顶峰，当时股票等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>（GME）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>(AMC) 被推高，部分原因是空头挤压以及 Reddit 和 Discord 聊天室上的协调交易者。</blockquote></p><p>These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with &#34;diamond hands&#34; eventually gave up.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易员继续积极推动各种交易，大多是小盘股和交易量稀少的股票，但创造持续走势的能力很快减弱，那些一直在推动用“钻石手”持股的人最终放弃了。</blockquote></p><p>This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态以及许多使用刺激资金进行交易的新交易者和小交易者的损失是损害许多次级股票和小盘股的部分原因，但今年的另一个主要问题是特殊目的收购公司或 SPAC 的涌入。</blockquote></p><p>In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO&#39;ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，超过600家SPAC首次公开募股，筹集了超过1600亿美元的资金。其中许多 SPAC 的基本面并不理想，但它们吸引了受到 10 美元赎回保护的投机者。如果SPAC可以在某个时候以同样的价格赎回，那么以10美元的价格赞助和出售SPAC是很容易的。</blockquote></p><p>A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>大量 SPAC 的交易价格处于低点，并从其他投机行业吸引了资金。</blockquote></p><p>There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.</p><p><blockquote>超过 570 家 SPAC 仍在寻求交易，其中约 90 家已被清算。即使 SPAC 达成交易，随着 10 美元的赎回价格消失，许多人的交易也非常糟糕，而那些持有 PIPE 股票的人正试图收回一些资本。</blockquote></p><p>SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>SPAC 在这一年中吸收了大量资本，它们的糟糕表现是许多小型股票也表现不佳的一个重要原因。不仅有大量 SPAC 处于低点交易，而且它们还从其他投机行业吸引了资本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，生物技术和大麻这两个行业因流动性缺乏而遭受重创。两家公司的交易价格均接近低点，今年均出现大幅亏损。总体而言，约有 2,700 只股票，占所有股票的 32%，处于 12 个月低点的 10% 以内。</blockquote></p><p>Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.</p><p><blockquote>请准备好了解今年市场表现如何的故事，但事实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>表现非常好的资产类别是大盘股。2021年，更广泛的市场经历了非常艰难的时期，但除非你做一些挖掘，否则你不会知道。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611\">Realmoney</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190455875","content_text":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as Apple (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.However, the big story this year isn't how well the indexes have performed --  it's how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. Just 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to TheStreet, close to 85% were trailing the S&P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday Goldman Sachs stated, \"if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&P 500.\"Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with \"diamond hands\" eventually gave up.This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO'ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is one asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696528173,"gmtCreate":1640737966793,"gmtModify":1640737967066,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696528173","repostId":"1186633322","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698481129,"gmtCreate":1640492569777,"gmtModify":1640492570036,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698481129","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698230902,"gmtCreate":1640400310268,"gmtModify":1640400310511,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698230902","repostId":"1195213621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195213621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640324974,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195213621?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195213621","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempe","content":"<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始对明年的股市做出展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，以及重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激措施的消退，过去可能会轻松上涨。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市至少会从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5,330）：“来自负投影的噪声……不应掩盖进步的迹象</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯 (John Stoltzfus) 对 2022 年股市表达了特别乐观的基调，预计随着经济增长依然强劲，政策制定者采取行动解决对价格上涨的担忧，股市将再次实现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默的展望是，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,330。这将比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨约 13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性模糊正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以应对高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前由 COVID-19 变种和供应链中断带来的重新开放挑战，”斯托尔茨福斯在 12 月 20 日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、看空者和恐惧制造者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自 2020 年 3 月疫情席卷全球以来社会和经济取得的进步信号。直到今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus 指出，该公司仍持有美国股票，同时“由于预计美国摆脱 COVID-19 紧急情况后的经济复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济扩张，因此对发达市场和新兴市场保持有意义的敞口。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>在板块方面，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，Stoltzfus。对于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢杠铃法，包括价值股和成长型股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷 (5,200)：“基于强劲的经济增长预测”上调标普500目标</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 更加看好 2022 年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 2022 年标普500目标价格从之前的 5,000 美元上调至 5,200 美元。更新后的预测还预测该指数将再次实现两位数上涨，预计较 12 月 22 日收盘价上涨近 11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性板块的利润率进一步上升、回购量增加以及尽管美联储收紧货币政策但有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将 2022 年标普500每股收益 (EPS) 预测从之前的 230 美元上调至 235 美元。该修订假设明年华盛顿以外的公司税率上调不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞士信贷正在跑赢大盘能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）等周期性行业。该公司是市场权重“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步趋平、名义增长消退或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于 2022 年增长前景疲软，我们将下调跑输大盘的金融和医疗保健评级。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标 5,050）：“2022 年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管增速比过去几年放缓。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到 2022 年底，标普500将达到 5,050 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长约 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇写道：“与我们 2021 年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场细分市场将大幅跑赢大盘，并带来 2-3 倍的回报。”“这样做的原因是我们对加息和边际收紧货币政策的预期，这应该会对纳斯达克等高倍数市场构成阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国国内，我们喜欢重新开放和再通胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准 10 年期国债收益率将攀升至 2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为存在哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会带来波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022 年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）盈利和经济增长以及利率控制上升的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS 集团美洲首席投资官 David Bianco 在 12 月 1 日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022 年应该又是一个好年份。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率只会温和上升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计 2022 年底标普500将达到 5,000 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长近 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而作为美国股市和全球股市市盈率关键的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到市盈率，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco 预计标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率（其市盈率约为当前市盈率的 22 倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计 2022 年标普500公司的每股总收益 (EPS) 将约为 228 美元，比今年预计的 213 美元增长 7%。这一盈利观点假设 2022 年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股票市场（标准普尔指数）的估值基本上是合理的，但我们长期以来的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般的成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的业务实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“现在不是 20 世纪 70 年代，我们通常认为抵御通货膨胀的最佳方法就是拥有最优质的企业。并寻找提高生产力而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>比安科还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是加息的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的 Savita Subramanian 表示，到 2022 年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司 2022 年的展望预计该指数明年收于 4,600 点，较 12 月 22 日收盘价下跌 2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据 Subramanian 的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，明年预计的更高利率环境会给股票估值带来压力。此外，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力，Subramanian补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标准普尔 500 指数 1.3% 的股息收益率相媲美，并且到 2022 年 YE [年底] 10 年期收益率达到 2%，那么 TINA（‘股票别无选择’）论点会发生什么？因此，股息增长需要跟上我们的主题：通胀保值收益率，”苏布拉马尼安说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们今天回顾时，我们会说什么？可能与 2000 年事后看来类似的评论：崇高的期望、华尔街股票配置增加了约 20 个百分点、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的 IPO 活动；美联储首次加息进入估值过高的市场。以及接受不可思议的事情：00 年股权成本为负，今天实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者过度杠杆——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian 表示，2022 年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，最后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，更喜欢价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股票牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯汀表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的动力。该公司预计，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,100 辆，比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨近 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头查看电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国 - 标签：商业 TPX 每日图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了 2021 年标普500的全部回报，并将继续推动 2022 年的收益。”“2022 年标普500每股收益将增长 8%，达到 226 美元，2023 年将增长 4%，达到 236 美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，即使投入成本压力和供应链挑战挥之不去，企业仍将继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500企业总利润率将再扩大 40 个基点，达到 12.6%。尽管如此，他还是建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但一个关键因素将改变明年的投资环境，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将于7月开始加息，”科斯汀表示。“实际利率将会上升，巩固估值倍数的上限并推动股票市场的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能会在 2022 年保持不变，并在 2023 年上升。企业盈利将增长并推高股价。股票牛市将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息集中在多重收缩上</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师 Mike Wilson 预计明年标普500将跌至 4,400 点，较 12 月 7 日收盘价下跌 6.3%。下跌的最大驱动力将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们考虑对未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息围绕着周期中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对 2023 年的总体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245 美元；增长 8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使指数没有做太多事情，股票选择也将在 2022 年提供大量机会。点对点，”他补充道。“我们认为，底线是，2022 年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，银行股可能会受益并优于长期成长型股票，而长期成长型股票的估值将受到利率上升的最大压力。然而，他补充说，“价格合理的增长和防御性质量也应该能保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像 2021 年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长跑赢大盘的时期，这取决于市场当前对宏观增长和利率的态势。目前，我们对价值略有偏见，因为它对利率上升和通货膨胀的杠杆作用更大，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 13:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始对明年的股市做出展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，以及重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激措施的消退，过去可能会轻松上涨。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市至少会从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5,330）：“来自负投影的噪声……不应掩盖进步的迹象</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯 (John Stoltzfus) 对 2022 年股市表达了特别乐观的基调，预计随着经济增长依然强劲，政策制定者采取行动解决对价格上涨的担忧，股市将再次实现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默的展望是，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,330。这将比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨约 13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性模糊正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以应对高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前由 COVID-19 变种和供应链中断带来的重新开放挑战，”斯托尔茨福斯在 12 月 20 日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、看空者和恐惧制造者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自 2020 年 3 月疫情席卷全球以来社会和经济取得的进步信号。直到今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus 指出，该公司仍持有美国股票，同时“由于预计美国摆脱 COVID-19 紧急情况后的经济复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济扩张，因此对发达市场和新兴市场保持有意义的敞口。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>在板块方面，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，Stoltzfus。对于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢杠铃法，包括价值股和成长型股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷 (5,200)：“基于强劲的经济增长预测”上调标普500目标</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 更加看好 2022 年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 2022 年标普500目标价格从之前的 5,000 美元上调至 5,200 美元。更新后的预测还预测该指数将再次实现两位数上涨，预计较 12 月 22 日收盘价上涨近 11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性板块的利润率进一步上升、回购量增加以及尽管美联储收紧货币政策但有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将 2022 年标普500每股收益 (EPS) 预测从之前的 230 美元上调至 235 美元。该修订假设明年华盛顿以外的公司税率上调不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞士信贷正在跑赢大盘能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）等周期性行业。该公司是市场权重“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步趋平、名义增长消退或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于 2022 年增长前景疲软，我们将下调跑输大盘的金融和医疗保健评级。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标 5,050）：“2022 年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管增速比过去几年放缓。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到 2022 年底，标普500将达到 5,050 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长约 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇写道：“与我们 2021 年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场细分市场将大幅跑赢大盘，并带来 2-3 倍的回报。”“这样做的原因是我们对加息和边际收紧货币政策的预期，这应该会对纳斯达克等高倍数市场构成阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国国内，我们喜欢重新开放和再通胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准 10 年期国债收益率将攀升至 2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为存在哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会带来波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022 年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）盈利和经济增长以及利率控制上升的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS 集团美洲首席投资官 David Bianco 在 12 月 1 日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022 年应该又是一个好年份。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率只会温和上升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计 2022 年底标普500将达到 5,000 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长近 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而作为美国股市和全球股市市盈率关键的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到市盈率，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco 预计标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率（其市盈率约为当前市盈率的 22 倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计 2022 年标普500公司的每股总收益 (EPS) 将约为 228 美元，比今年预计的 213 美元增长 7%。这一盈利观点假设 2022 年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股票市场（标准普尔指数）的估值基本上是合理的，但我们长期以来的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般的成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的业务实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“现在不是 20 世纪 70 年代，我们通常认为抵御通货膨胀的最佳方法就是拥有最优质的企业。并寻找提高生产力而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>比安科还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是加息的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的 Savita Subramanian 表示，到 2022 年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司 2022 年的展望预计该指数明年收于 4,600 点，较 12 月 22 日收盘价下跌 2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据 Subramanian 的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，明年预计的更高利率环境会给股票估值带来压力。此外，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力，Subramanian补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标准普尔 500 指数 1.3% 的股息收益率相媲美，并且到 2022 年 YE [年底] 10 年期收益率达到 2%，那么 TINA（‘股票别无选择’）论点会发生什么？因此，股息增长需要跟上我们的主题：通胀保值收益率，”苏布拉马尼安说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们今天回顾时，我们会说什么？可能与 2000 年事后看来类似的评论：崇高的期望、华尔街股票配置增加了约 20 个百分点、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的 IPO 活动；美联储首次加息进入估值过高的市场。以及接受不可思议的事情：00 年股权成本为负，今天实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者过度杠杆——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian 表示，2022 年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，最后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，更喜欢价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股票牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯汀表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的动力。该公司预计，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,100 辆，比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨近 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头查看电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国 - 标签：商业 TPX 每日图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了 2021 年标普500的全部回报，并将继续推动 2022 年的收益。”“2022 年标普500每股收益将增长 8%，达到 226 美元，2023 年将增长 4%，达到 236 美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，即使投入成本压力和供应链挑战挥之不去，企业仍将继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500企业总利润率将再扩大 40 个基点，达到 12.6%。尽管如此，他还是建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但一个关键因素将改变明年的投资环境，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将于7月开始加息，”科斯汀表示。“实际利率将会上升，巩固估值倍数的上限并推动股票市场的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能会在 2022 年保持不变，并在 2023 年上升。企业盈利将增长并推高股价。股票牛市将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息集中在多重收缩上</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师 Mike Wilson 预计明年标普500将跌至 4,400 点，较 12 月 7 日收盘价下跌 6.3%。下跌的最大驱动力将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们考虑对未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息围绕着周期中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对 2023 年的总体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245 美元；增长 8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使指数没有做太多事情，股票选择也将在 2022 年提供大量机会。点对点，”他补充道。“我们认为，底线是，2022 年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，银行股可能会受益并优于长期成长型股票，而长期成长型股票的估值将受到利率上升的最大压力。然而，他补充说，“价格合理的增长和防御性质量也应该能保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像 2021 年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长跑赢大盘的时期，这取决于市场当前对宏观增长和利率的态势。目前，我们对价值略有偏见，因为它对利率上升和通货膨胀的杠杆作用更大，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195213621","content_text":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&P 500 rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.\n\nThe S&P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.\nHere's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.\n—\nOppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'\nOppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.\nOppenheimer's outlook sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.\n\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.\nStoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"\nIn terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nCredit Suisse (5,200): S&P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'\nCredit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.\nThe firm raised its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.\nThe firm also raised its 2022 S&P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.\nCredit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.\n\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nJPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'\nJPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nThe firm forecasted that the S&P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.\n\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nDWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'\nDWS Group expects the S&P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.\n\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"\nThe firm expects to see the S&P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"\nBianco expects the S&P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.\n\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"\nBianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nBank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'\nThe S&P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.\nThe firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.\nExpectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.\n\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"\n\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"\nIn terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nGoldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'\nCorporate profits are set to be the driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.\nA trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)\n\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"\nCompanies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.\nWhile the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.\n\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"\n\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nMorgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'Our key message centers around multiple contraction'\nMorgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.\nMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.\n\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earningsuncertainty,\"Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"\n\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"\nAs interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.\n\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"\nPrice target as of November 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11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德在鲍威尔身上获益。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116775921","media":"Barrons","summary":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, an","content":"<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定即将做出，其影响将超出开始加息的时间。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>目前的赛马是在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行的。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要差异。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素——加上谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚些时候报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德-布朗（Sherrod Brown，民主党，俄亥俄州）表示，白宫官员告诉他，关于美联储主席人选的决定 “迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在 11 月 2 日表示，将 “相当快 ”宣布这一人选。鲍威尔主席任期届满后，谁将领导央行，通常会在几周前做出选择，但显然政府已经忙于让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>就像社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择取决于支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代鲍威尔的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位，并在私募股权公司工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里-克林顿2016年总统竞选失败做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的核心是利率的设定以及央行购买或出售证券以引导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察家的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略允许美联储将通胀率控制在 2% 的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的缺口。实际上，FAIT 允许经济在联邦基金利率目标（仍处于 0%-0.25% 的谷底）上调之前达到 “最大就业”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始减少其大规模证券购买，从 2020 年 3 月因遏制 Covid-19 而引发的危机期间开始的每月 1200 亿美元的速度开始。根据最新的消费者价格指数，除了大规模的财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通货膨胀率推高到每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀升幅超出预期，但他继续将其看涨期权为暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决时，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减债券购买规模的决定，但在加息之前可能会对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者之间的分数差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常对放松限制的决定提出异议，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德-弗兰克法案所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票赞成放松一些限制，这促使参议员伊丽莎白-沃伦（Elizabeth Warren，民主党，马萨诸塞州）称鲍威尔是一个 “危险人物”，她说她会反对鲍威尔的连任。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任期总统保留现任美联储主席的传统，即使那个人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马连任。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的《面对全国》（Face the Nation）节目中说：”我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，尤其是在大流行病来袭时出现的问题。“但重要的是，拜登总统要选择一个经验丰富、可信赖的人，而且候选人范围很广。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。鉴于耶伦既是财政部长，又是前美联储主席，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“与参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我 12 岁的儿子坚持整理床铺。在正确的领导下，没有什么是货币政策解决不了的。它是积极的、非常进步的.甚至是实验性的政策，”芝加哥机构期货经纪公司 R.J. 机构销售董事总经理约翰-布雷迪（John Brady）说。奥布莱恩在客户便条中尖锐地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种更广泛的美联储职责观点。因此，达拉斯联储前主席理查德-费舍尔（Richard Fisher）的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务公司（Quill Intelligence advisory service）的出版商丹妮尔-迪马蒂诺-布斯（Danielle DiMartino Booth）认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场 “巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，尤其是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党人更加倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺-布斯（DiMartino Booth）还注意到了最后一个令人好奇的进展： 据彭博社报道，罗杰-弗格森（Roger Ferguson）周一晚些时候表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，他于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾在 1999-2006 年担任美联储副主席，并在 9/11 事件后作为美联储危机管理者赢得了赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是重注的最爱，有73%的概率与布雷纳德一起获得另一个任期，为23%。当然，投注者并不能决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德在鲍威尔身上获益。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德在鲍威尔身上获益。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-17 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定即将做出，其影响将超出开始加息的时间。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>目前的赛马是在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行的。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要差异。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素——加上谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚些时候报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德-布朗（Sherrod Brown，民主党，俄亥俄州）表示，白宫官员告诉他，关于美联储主席人选的决定 “迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在 11 月 2 日表示，将 “相当快 ”宣布这一人选。鲍威尔主席任期届满后，谁将领导央行，通常会在几周前做出选择，但显然政府已经忙于让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>就像社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择取决于支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代鲍威尔的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位，并在私募股权公司工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里-克林顿2016年总统竞选失败做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的核心是利率的设定以及央行购买或出售证券以引导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察家的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略允许美联储将通胀率控制在 2% 的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的缺口。实际上，FAIT 允许经济在联邦基金利率目标（仍处于 0%-0.25% 的谷底）上调之前达到 “最大就业”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始减少其大规模证券购买，从 2020 年 3 月因遏制 Covid-19 而引发的危机期间开始的每月 1200 亿美元的速度开始。根据最新的消费者价格指数，除了大规模的财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通货膨胀率推高到每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀升幅超出预期，但他继续将其看涨期权为暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决时，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减债券购买规模的决定，但在加息之前可能会对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者之间的分数差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常对放松限制的决定提出异议，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德-弗兰克法案所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票赞成放松一些限制，这促使参议员伊丽莎白-沃伦（Elizabeth Warren，民主党，马萨诸塞州）称鲍威尔是一个 “危险人物”，她说她会反对鲍威尔的连任。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任期总统保留现任美联储主席的传统，即使那个人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马连任。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的《面对全国》（Face the Nation）节目中说：”我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，尤其是在大流行病来袭时出现的问题。“但重要的是，拜登总统要选择一个经验丰富、可信赖的人，而且候选人范围很广。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。鉴于耶伦既是财政部长，又是前美联储主席，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“与参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我 12 岁的儿子坚持整理床铺。在正确的领导下，没有什么是货币政策解决不了的。它是积极的、非常进步的.甚至是实验性的政策，”芝加哥机构期货经纪公司 R.J. 机构销售董事总经理约翰-布雷迪（John Brady）说。奥布莱恩在客户便条中尖锐地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种更广泛的美联储职责观点。因此，达拉斯联储前主席理查德-费舍尔（Richard Fisher）的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务公司（Quill Intelligence advisory service）的出版商丹妮尔-迪马蒂诺-布斯（Danielle DiMartino Booth）认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场 “巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，尤其是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党人更加倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺-布斯（DiMartino Booth）还注意到了最后一个令人好奇的进展： 据彭博社报道，罗杰-弗格森（Roger Ferguson）周一晚些时候表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，他于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾在 1999-2006 年担任美联储副主席，并在 9/11 事件后作为美联储危机管理者赢得了赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是重注的最爱，有73%的概率与布雷纳德一起获得另一个任期，为23%。当然，投注者并不能决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116775921","content_text":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.\nSenate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.\nAs with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.\nPowell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.\nBrainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.\nOn matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.\nThe new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.\nThe Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.\nPowell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.\nBrainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.\nPowell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.\nBut more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”\nPowell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.\n“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.\nBrainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.\nShe sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.\nOne final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.\nBefore that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.\nOn Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844398900,"gmtCreate":1636386641246,"gmtModify":1636386770292,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","text":"$Quantumscape 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Solar(CSIQ)$share","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522de52ff86eb2526b8027c451859238","width":"1440","height":"3700"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851990826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":862506267,"gmtCreate":1632886945307,"gmtModify":1632886945656,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comments pls","listText":"Comments pls","text":"Comments pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862506267","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163410557,"gmtCreate":1623890999079,"gmtModify":1634026386083,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163410557","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":874053999,"gmtCreate":1637714169109,"gmtModify":1637714169283,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commenting&nbsp;","listText":"Commenting&nbsp;","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874053999","repostId":"2185336565","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859844569,"gmtCreate":1634689304563,"gmtModify":1634689304909,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>share coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>share coin","text":"$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$share coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4c59b61d0312f10ff26b5f095fdbc3","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859844569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127801914,"gmtCreate":1624841823738,"gmtModify":1633948172748,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127801914","repostId":"1119512620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":605070575,"gmtCreate":1639097120696,"gmtModify":1639097120915,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commenting","listText":"Commenting","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605070575","repostId":"1154976653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127801628,"gmtCreate":1624841848064,"gmtModify":1631890705681,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127801628","repostId":"1133201828","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133201828","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624839570,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133201828?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 08:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Brookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire<blockquote>Brookfield 部门签署价值 50 亿美元的 TDR 支持的 Modulaire 协议</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133201828","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the Eur","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博）-布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司的一个部门同意以约50亿美元收购Modulaire Group，这是一家由收购公司TDR Capital支持的欧洲模块化工作空间设计师，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire<blockquote>Brookfield 部门签署价值 50 亿美元的 TDR 支持的 Modulaire 协议</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire<blockquote>Brookfield 部门签署价值 50 亿美元的 TDR 支持的 Modulaire 协议</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 08:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博）-布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司的一个部门同意以约50亿美元收购Modulaire Group，这是一家由收购公司TDR Capital支持的欧洲模块化工作空间设计师，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133201828","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, beating out interest from rival Canadian investment firm Onex Corp.\n“We look forward to bringing our global scale and capabilities in owning and operating leading infrastructure services businesses to support Modulaire’s growth, in partnership with the management team,” Anuj Ranjan, managing partner of Brookfield Business Partners LP, said in a statement Sunday.\nBloomberg News reported the parties were closing in on the deal earlier, citing people familiar with the matter.\nThe deal ranks among the biggest private equity transactions in Europe this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also be among the largest-ever deals for the Canadian investment firm’s European private equity business.\nModulaire designs modular buildings that can be rented for work and living, as well as portable storage units. Demand for these services have picked up amid the pandemic as businesses seek to cut costs and shy away from longer-term work-space contracts. The company operates across Europe and in Asia. TDR acquired the company in 2004 and has since expanded it through a string of acquisitions.\nThe company reported a 27% increase in revenue, including from acquisitions, to 320 million euros in the first quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 44% during the period to 97 million euros, including acquisitions.\nBrookfield Business Partners is a unit of the Canadian firm which invests in business services and industrial sectors. The investment firm is weighing a sale of U.K.-based biofuel provider Greenergy, Bloomberg News reported in May.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182577095,"gmtCreate":1623593962917,"gmtModify":1634031338990,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182577095","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":600703966,"gmtCreate":1638195484476,"gmtModify":1638195484841,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing&nbsp;","listText":"Testing&nbsp;","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600703966","repostId":"1106111099","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698481129,"gmtCreate":1640492569777,"gmtModify":1640492570036,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698481129","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}