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Fat_Cat

Fat_Cat

Fat Cats & Starving Dogs.

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-24

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Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市未来十年仍面临艰难</blockquote>

2021-06-25

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2021-06-24

Recovery is good

The global recovery is running red hot. Here's proof<blockquote>全球复苏如火如荼。这是证据</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Sounds like merger

Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>

2021-06-20

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2021-06-25

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The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>

2021-06-23

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[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126602215","repostId":"1120836318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126602982,"gmtCreate":1624554794846,"gmtModify":1631891546962,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126602982","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126606892,"gmtCreate":1624554750116,"gmtModify":1631891546964,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126606892","repostId":"2145704596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126606019,"gmtCreate":1624554717231,"gmtModify":1631891546967,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126606019","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126609272,"gmtCreate":1624554492696,"gmtModify":1631891546971,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126609272","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126609345,"gmtCreate":1624554442787,"gmtModify":1631891546972,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126609345","repostId":"1186693886","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128440404,"gmtCreate":1624529003208,"gmtModify":1631891546974,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Recovery is good","listText":"Recovery is good","text":"Recovery is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128440404","repostId":"1193957491","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128016580,"gmtCreate":1624495185940,"gmtModify":1631891546978,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sounds like merger","listText":"Sounds like merger","text":"Sounds like merger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128016580","repostId":"1129538803","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129538803","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624494525,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129538803?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 08:28","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129538803","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thu","content":"<p>June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.</p><p><blockquote>路透 6 月 24 日 - 新加坡上市企业集团吉宝公司 (Keppel Corp) 和钻井平台建造商胜科海事 (Sembcorp Marine) 周四分别向证券交易所提交文件，要求其股票在发布公告之前停牌。</blockquote></p><p> Keppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.</p><p><blockquote>吉宝（Keppel）和胜科海事（Sembcorp Marine）是世界上最大的石油钻井平台建造商之一，但油价长期下跌和钻井平台供应过剩多年来一直对它们的业务造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股公司（Temasek Holdings）是两家公司的最大股东，由于吉宝财务业绩不佳，该公司去年取消了收购吉宝多数股权的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Markets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.</p><p><blockquote>市场原本预计淡马锡将在交易后引领钻机制造行业急需的整合。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&amp;M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&amp;M business.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，吉宝表示，其陷入困境的近海和海洋 (O&amp;M) 部门将退出钻井平台建造服务，该公司还在探索 O&amp;M 业务的无机选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 08:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.</p><p><blockquote>路透 6 月 24 日 - 新加坡上市企业集团吉宝公司 (Keppel Corp) 和钻井平台建造商胜科海事 (Sembcorp Marine) 周四分别向证券交易所提交文件，要求其股票在发布公告之前停牌。</blockquote></p><p> Keppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.</p><p><blockquote>吉宝（Keppel）和胜科海事（Sembcorp Marine）是世界上最大的石油钻井平台建造商之一，但油价长期下跌和钻井平台供应过剩多年来一直对它们的业务造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股公司（Temasek Holdings）是两家公司的最大股东，由于吉宝财务业绩不佳，该公司去年取消了收购吉宝多数股权的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Markets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.</p><p><blockquote>市场原本预计淡马锡将在交易后引领钻机制造行业急需的整合。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&amp;M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&amp;M business.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，吉宝表示，其陷入困境的近海和海洋 (O&amp;M) 部门将退出钻井平台建造服务，该公司还在探索 O&amp;M 业务的无机选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/keppel-corp-trading-halt-sembcorp-marine/update-1-singapores-keppel-sembcorp-marine-request-trading-halts-idUSL2N2O536D\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BN4.SI":"吉宝有限公司"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/keppel-corp-trading-halt-sembcorp-marine/update-1-singapores-keppel-sembcorp-marine-request-trading-halts-idUSL2N2O536D","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129538803","content_text":"June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.\nKeppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.\nSingapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.\nMarkets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.\nEarlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&M business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BN4.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128018504,"gmtCreate":1624495155308,"gmtModify":1631891546980,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128018504","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128011453,"gmtCreate":1624495132772,"gmtModify":1634005352598,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128011453","repostId":"1145579248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145579248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624494904,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145579248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BlackBerry Holders Defy Glass Lewis, Gardner to Back Watsa<blockquote>黑莓持有者无视 Glass Lewis、Gardner 支持 Watsa</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145579248","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- BlackBerry Ltd. shareholders voted to keep Prem Watsa as lead director, despite compl","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- BlackBerry Ltd. shareholders voted to keep Prem Watsa as lead director, despite complaints from a proxy advisory firm and a prominent investor that he failed to ensure the company’s ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--尽管一家代理咨询公司和一位著名投资者抱怨普雷姆-瓦特萨（Prem Watsa）未能确保公司的...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-holders-defy-glass-lewis-173539380.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-holders-defy-glass-lewis-173539380.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry Holders Defy Glass Lewis, Gardner to Back Watsa<blockquote>黑莓持有者无视 Glass Lewis、Gardner 支持 Watsa</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry Holders Defy Glass Lewis, Gardner to Back Watsa<blockquote>黑莓持有者无视 Glass Lewis、Gardner 支持 Watsa</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- BlackBerry Ltd. shareholders voted to keep Prem Watsa as lead director, despite complaints from a proxy advisory firm and a prominent investor that he failed to ensure the company’s ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--尽管一家代理咨询公司和一位著名投资者抱怨普雷姆-瓦特萨（Prem Watsa）未能确保公司的...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-holders-defy-glass-lewis-173539380.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-holders-defy-glass-lewis-173539380.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-holders-defy-glass-lewis-173539380.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-holders-defy-glass-lewis-173539380.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145579248","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- BlackBerry Ltd. shareholders voted to keep Prem Watsa as lead director, despite complaints from a proxy advisory firm and a prominent investor that he failed to ensure the company’s executive pay is aligned with its performance.\nShareholders at Wednesday’s annual meeting voted 82.6% in support of re-electing Watsa to the seat he’s held since 2013. Last year, Watsa won 90% of shareholder votes.\nLeading into the meeting, Watsa faced criticism from Glass Lewis & Co. and veteran analyst Dorsey Gardner, both of whom urged shareholders to withhold their support.\nGlass Lewis criticized Watsa for a misalignment between executive pay and performance in recent years, while Gardner emphasized conflicts of interest between Watsa’s board duties and his position as a shareholder -- he controls Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., BlackBerry’s largest investor.\nShareholders also backed BlackBerry’s compensation plan in a “say on pay” vote, though the approval rate was below expectations, a company official said during the online meeting.\nBlackBerry shares have gone up 98% in U.S. trading this year, fueled in part by Reddit forums and social media channels. Fairfax has benefited from the meme-stock mania through its 8% equity stake and its holdings of convertible debt.\nChief Executive Officer John Chen earned $3 million in salary and bonus for the fiscal year ended Feb. 28, but was granted a $106 million equity award in 2019, according to company filings. BlackBerry President Tom Eacobacci was given an $8 million equity award for fiscal 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121222091,"gmtCreate":1624466503913,"gmtModify":1634005664522,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121222091","repostId":"1198462718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198462718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624448358,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198462718?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市未来十年仍面临艰难</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198462718","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after al","content":"<p>  <b>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.</b>  Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率的增长速度将与美国经济的增长速度相同。</b>毕竟，美国股市在未来十年的回报还有希望吗？我提出这个问题是为了跟进本月早些时候的 tomy 专栏，其中我得出的结论是，即使在乐观的假设下，标准普尔 500SPX,+0.51% 在未来 10 年内也不太可能产生高于低个位数的年化总实际回报率。</blockquote></p><p> My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，股市将无法依靠过去十年支撑股市的三大支柱——不断增长的估值、利润率以及比已发行新股更多的回购（净回购）。</blockquote></p><p> Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.</p><p><blockquote>一些读者回应说，我忽略了一个能让市场产生可观回报的逃生舱口：企业收入的增长速度可以快于美国整体经济。在这种情况下，股市不需要这三大支柱中的任何一个就能表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>这个逃生舱口背后似乎有确凿的证据。考虑瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师兼量化研究主管乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 最近给客户的一份报告。他报告说，根据他自 2000 年以来根据标普500销售额和 GDP 构建的计量经济学模型，“名义 GDP 每增长 1%，收入就会增长 2.5-3%”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这对股票投资者来说肯定是件好事。这意味着，即使估值、利润率或净回购没有增加，股市的表现也可能明显优于整体经济。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，这种说法好得令人难以置信。我分析了20世纪70年代初的标普500销售额（由Ned Davis Research提供的数据提供），发现销售额增长和GDP增长之间几乎有1:1的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”</p><p><blockquote>研究附属公司董事长兼创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 表示，这完全是我们应该期待的。他在一封电子邮件中说，“总销售额与国内生产总值的比例应该是相当干净的 1:1。任何其他比例在持续的基础上都没有意义”。</blockquote></p><p> How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)</p><p><blockquote>那么，Golub是如何想出如此不同的答案的呢？我的预感是这可以追溯到他衡量销售额的方式。Golub 的同事、瑞士信贷的股票策略师 Manish Bangard 在一封电子邮件中解释说，他们关注的是每股销售额。但是，正如阿诺特指出的那样，这个每股数字反映了净回购的影响。因此，Golub报告的高销售额与GDP的比率并不是销售增长与GDP关系的纯粹衡量标准。（我没有收到对我的补充评论请求的答复。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment implication</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资含义</b></blockquote></p><p> The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不应该指望美国股市在未来十年的增长速度超过经济。事实上，如果市盈率或利润率回落到历史平均水平的一半，或者如果净回购为负值（美国历史上的大部分时间都是如此），那么它的增长速度可能会慢得多。</blockquote></p><p> But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.</p><p><blockquote>但即使从现在到2031年市盈率和利润率保持不变，并且没有净回购，历史教训是美国市场的增长速度也不会快于经济增长速度。</blockquote></p><p> Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.</p><p><blockquote>想想这意味着什么。国会预算办公室预计，从2022年到2031年，实际GDP将以1.8%的年增长率增长。即使这样也可能是乐观的，因为国会预算办公室预计从现在到那时不会出现衰退。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.</p><p><blockquote>一句话：股市还有很长的路要走，即使是过去十年惊人回报的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市未来十年仍面临艰难</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市未来十年仍面临艰难</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 19:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.</b>  Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率的增长速度将与美国经济的增长速度相同。</b>毕竟，美国股市在未来十年的回报还有希望吗？我提出这个问题是为了跟进本月早些时候的 tomy 专栏，其中我得出的结论是，即使在乐观的假设下，标准普尔 500SPX,+0.51% 在未来 10 年内也不太可能产生高于低个位数的年化总实际回报率。</blockquote></p><p> My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，股市将无法依靠过去十年支撑股市的三大支柱——不断增长的估值、利润率以及比已发行新股更多的回购（净回购）。</blockquote></p><p> Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.</p><p><blockquote>一些读者回应说，我忽略了一个能让市场产生可观回报的逃生舱口：企业收入的增长速度可以快于美国整体经济。在这种情况下，股市不需要这三大支柱中的任何一个就能表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>这个逃生舱口背后似乎有确凿的证据。考虑瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师兼量化研究主管乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 最近给客户的一份报告。他报告说，根据他自 2000 年以来根据标普500销售额和 GDP 构建的计量经济学模型，“名义 GDP 每增长 1%，收入就会增长 2.5-3%”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这对股票投资者来说肯定是件好事。这意味着，即使估值、利润率或净回购没有增加，股市的表现也可能明显优于整体经济。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，这种说法好得令人难以置信。我分析了20世纪70年代初的标普500销售额（由Ned Davis Research提供的数据提供），发现销售额增长和GDP增长之间几乎有1:1的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”</p><p><blockquote>研究附属公司董事长兼创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 表示，这完全是我们应该期待的。他在一封电子邮件中说，“总销售额与国内生产总值的比例应该是相当干净的 1:1。任何其他比例在持续的基础上都没有意义”。</blockquote></p><p> How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)</p><p><blockquote>那么，Golub是如何想出如此不同的答案的呢？我的预感是这可以追溯到他衡量销售额的方式。Golub 的同事、瑞士信贷的股票策略师 Manish Bangard 在一封电子邮件中解释说，他们关注的是每股销售额。但是，正如阿诺特指出的那样，这个每股数字反映了净回购的影响。因此，Golub报告的高销售额与GDP的比率并不是销售增长与GDP关系的纯粹衡量标准。（我没有收到对我的补充评论请求的答复。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment implication</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资含义</b></blockquote></p><p> The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不应该指望美国股市在未来十年的增长速度超过经济。事实上，如果市盈率或利润率回落到历史平均水平的一半，或者如果净回购为负值（美国历史上的大部分时间都是如此），那么它的增长速度可能会慢得多。</blockquote></p><p> But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.</p><p><blockquote>但即使从现在到2031年市盈率和利润率保持不变，并且没有净回购，历史教训是美国市场的增长速度也不会快于经济增长速度。</blockquote></p><p> Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.</p><p><blockquote>想想这意味着什么。国会预算办公室预计，从2022年到2031年，实际GDP将以1.8%的年增长率增长。即使这样也可能是乐观的，因为国会预算办公室预计从现在到那时不会出现衰退。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.</p><p><blockquote>一句话：股市还有很长的路要走，即使是过去十年惊人回报的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198462718","content_text":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.\nMy argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).\nSome readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.\nThis escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”\nIf so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.\nUnfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.\nThis is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”\nHow then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)\nInvestment implication\nThe implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).\nBut even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.\nConsider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.\nThe bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121226848,"gmtCreate":1624466450684,"gmtModify":1634005665087,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121226848","repostId":"1143759096","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143759096","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624371721,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143759096?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中下跌。中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨和加息计划后全面定价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143759096","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 22) EV stocks fell in morning trading. Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,","content":"<p>(June 22)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.&nbsp;Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,&nbsp;LI&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月22日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉跌0.33%，小鹏跌逾5%，蔚来跌逾3%，理想跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a423484cc524b2f71e91b83e759455a9\" tg-width=\"289\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes,</b>&nbsp;<b>According&nbsp;To&nbsp;Forbes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车：中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨、计划加息后全面定价，</b> <b>据福布斯报道。</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，中国电动汽车企业的股价飙升，在很大程度上扭转了今年早些时候抛售的影响。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）上个月上涨了近 38%，理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）上涨了 45%，小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）飙升近 58%。现在，虽然这三家公司公布的 5 月份交付量好坏参半，蔚来和理想汽车的交付量都比 4 月份有所下降，小鹏汽车的销量也略有增长，但考虑到半导体短缺困扰了汽车行业，销量数据可能并没有预期的那么糟糕。相比之下，通用汽车和福特等主要汽车制造商不得不暂时闲置或缩减几家工厂的产量。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司提供的前景也强于预期，让投资者相信半导体短缺最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。理想汽车预计第二季度交付量将达到 14,500 至 15,500 辆，高端环比增长 22%。该公司表示，鉴于 Li One SUV 升级版的订单强于预期，因此对实际数量将超过指导值持乐观态度。蔚来还重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着 6 月份可能会交付创纪录的 8,200 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Now are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>现在这些股票在当前水平上值得买入吗？虽然增长前景确实强劲，但按照目前的估值，这些股票似乎并不便宜。蔚来的远期收入为 14 倍，理想汽车的远期收入为 9 倍，小鹏汽车的远期收入约为 16 倍。电动汽车估值的近期威胁包括通胀上升和美联储最近的评论，美联储现在显然正在考虑在 2023 年而不是 2024 年加息两次。这可能会给包括电动汽车在内的高市盈率、高增长股票带来压力。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6/2/2021]中国电动汽车最糟糕的半导体危机结束了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车巨头蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）提供的 5 月份交付数据好坏参半，因为它们继续受到当前半导体短缺的影响。虽然蔚来 5 月份共交付了 6,711 辆汽车，比 4 月份下降了 5.5%，但小鹏汽车上个月的交付量增长了约 10%，达到 5,686 辆，尽管这一数字低于 1 月份 6,015 辆的月销量峰值。尽管两家公司都报告了强劲的同比增长数据（2 倍至 6 倍），但快速增长公司的连续数据受到更密切的跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> However, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事情可能会从这里开始变得更好。例如，蔚来重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着该公司 6 月份的交付量可能高达 8,200 辆，创下月度纪录。这可能表明全球汽车半导体短缺正在缓解，也表明尽管竞争日益激烈，但蔚来仍在中国电动汽车市场占据一席之地。蔚来股价在周二的交易中上涨了近 10%，而小鹏汽车的股价在报告发布后上涨了约 8%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近上涨，但在当前水平上，这些股票可能仍然值得考虑。今年迄今为止，蔚来股价仍下跌约 20%，而小鹏汽车则下跌约 22%。请参阅我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>概述三家在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务和估值指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5/21/2021]中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）今年表现不佳，自 1 月初以来，其股价均下跌了约 30%。那么这些股票在回调后对比如何呢？虽然蔚来和小鹏汽车的价格仍然高于理想汽车，但它们的较高估值可能有几个原因。这里有更多关于这些公司的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>比较主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车企业的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来仍然是这三家公司中估值最高的，交易价格约为远期收入的 10.5 倍。根据普遍估计，今年的收入可能会增长超过 110%。鉴于该公司广泛的产品组合（市场上已经有三款车型）、电池更换等独特的创新、全球扩张计划以及对自动驾驶的投资，长期增长也可能保持强劲。蔚来品牌也更受欢迎，该公司被视为特斯拉在华最直接的竞争对手。2021 年第一季度的毛利率为 19.5%，高于一年前的负 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的交易价格约为 2021 年收入预计的 10 倍。根据普遍估计，销售增长预计将是这三家公司中最强劲的，今年增长超过 150%。除了更高的预计增长外，由于该公司在自动驾驶领域的进展，投资者还给予该公司溢价。小鹏目前销售G3 SUV和P7轿车，其新款P5紧凑型轿车可能会在今年晚些时候上路。虽然小鹏汽车的毛利率有所改善，比第一季度上升至约 11%，而一年前则为负水平，但仍低于蔚来的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车的交易价格仅为 2021 年预计收入的 6 倍，是三家公司中最低的。今年的收入可能会大约翻一番，截至 2020 年第四季度，毛利率为 17.5%（该公司尚未报告第一季度业绩）。估值较低可能是因为该公司专注于单一产品--Li Xiang ONE，这是一款电动 SUV，也配备了小型汽油发动机，同时也是因为理想汽车在自动驾驶技术方面落后于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[10/30/2020]蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车如何比较</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysis<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车领域正在蓬勃发展，中国制造商占全球电动汽车交付量的 50% 以上。中国对电动汽车的需求可能会保持强劲，因为中国政府希望到 2025 年，中国销售的所有新车中约有 25% 是电动汽车，而目前这一比例约为 5%。[1]虽然特斯拉在其上海新工厂的生产推动下成为中国豪华电动汽车市场的领导者，但蔚来、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）这三家相对年轻的美国上市中国电动汽车公司也越来越受到关注。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。分析的部分内容总结如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview Of Nio, Li Auto &amp; Xpeng’s Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏的业务概述</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，目前提供三款高端电动SUV：ES8、ES6和EC6，起价约为5万美元。该公司正在致力于开发自动驾驶技术，并提供其他独特的创新，例如电池即服务 (BaaS)，该技术允许客户订阅汽车电池，而不是预先付费。虽然该公司已经扩大了生产规模，但也并非没有挑战，去年在接到多起火灾报告后，该公司召回了约 5000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车销售增程式电动汽车，本质上是电动汽车，也有一个小型汽油发动机，可以为电池产生额外的电力。这减少了对电动汽车充电基础设施的需求，而电动汽车充电基础设施目前在中国有限。该公司的混合动力战略似乎正在取得成效--其售价约为 4.6 万美元的 Li ONE SUV 在 2020 年 9 月成为中国新能源汽车领域最畅销的 SUV。新能源细分市场包括燃料电池、电动和插电式混合动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车生产和销售包括 G3 SUV 和 P7 四门轿车在内的高端电动汽车，大致定位为特斯拉 Model Y SUV 和 Model 3 轿车的竞争对手，尽管它们的价格更实惠，G3 的基本版补贴后起价约为 22,000 美元。G3 SUV是2019年中国电动SUV销量前三名。虽然该公司于2018年底开始生产，最初是通过与一家老牌汽车制造商达成协议，但它已经开始在广东省自己的工厂生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Have The Deliveries, Revenues &amp; Margins Trended</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量、收入和利润率的趋势如何</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&amp;D and SG&amp;A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2019年交付了约2.1万辆汽车，高于2018年的约1.1万辆。相比之下，小鹏汽车在 2019 年交付了约 1.3 万辆汽车，理想汽车汽车交付了约 1000 辆汽车，考虑到它去年年底才开始生产。蔚来今年的交付量可能接近 4 万辆左右，而理想汽车和小鹏汽车的交付量可能达到 2.5 万辆左右，其中理想汽车的交付量增幅最大。2019 年，蔚来的收入为 11 亿美元，而理想汽车约为 4000 万美元，小鹏约为 3.3 亿美元。蔚来今年的收入可能增长 95%，而小鹏汽车的收入可能增长约 120%。这三家公司仍然严重亏损，因为与研发和SG&amp;A相关的成本相对于收入仍然很高。2019 年，蔚来的净利润率为-195%，理想汽车的利润率约为-860%，而小鹏的利润率为-160%。然而，随着销量的回升，利润率可能会在 2020 年大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2020 年 10 月 28 日，蔚来的市值约为 370 亿美元，由于投资者对电动汽车股票的兴趣激增，其股价今年迄今上涨了约 7 倍。理想汽车和小鹏汽车均于 8 月左右在美国上市，希望利用飙升的估值，市值分别约为 150 亿美元和 140 亿美元。相对而言，蔚来的交易价格约为 2020 年收入的 15 倍，理想汽车的交易价格约为 12 倍，而小鹏的交易价格约为 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> While valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.</p><p><blockquote>虽然估值肯定很高，但投资者可能会押注这些公司将继续在国内市场发展壮大，同时利用中国相对低成本的制造业以及中国的电池和汽车零部件供应商生态系统，最终在全球电动汽车领域发挥更大的作用。在这三家公司中，考虑到其稍长的业绩记录、较高的收入以及对电池更换和自动驾驶等技术的投资，蔚来可能是更安全的选择。考虑到其快速增长（由混合动力系统的采用推动）以及相对有吸引力的估值（约 2020 年收入的 12 倍），理想汽车看起来也很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in<b>Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks</b>can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车是交通运输的未来，但选择合适的电动汽车股票可能很棘手。投资于<b>电动汽车零部件供应商库存</b>可能是推动电动汽车市场增长的一个很好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中下跌。中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨和加息计划后全面定价</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中下跌。中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨和加息计划后全面定价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 22)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.&nbsp;Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,&nbsp;LI&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月22日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉跌0.33%，小鹏跌逾5%，蔚来跌逾3%，理想跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a423484cc524b2f71e91b83e759455a9\" tg-width=\"289\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes,</b>&nbsp;<b>According&nbsp;To&nbsp;Forbes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车：中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨、计划加息后全面定价，</b> <b>据福布斯报道。</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，中国电动汽车企业的股价飙升，在很大程度上扭转了今年早些时候抛售的影响。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）上个月上涨了近 38%，理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）上涨了 45%，小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）飙升近 58%。现在，虽然这三家公司公布的 5 月份交付量好坏参半，蔚来和理想汽车的交付量都比 4 月份有所下降，小鹏汽车的销量也略有增长，但考虑到半导体短缺困扰了汽车行业，销量数据可能并没有预期的那么糟糕。相比之下，通用汽车和福特等主要汽车制造商不得不暂时闲置或缩减几家工厂的产量。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司提供的前景也强于预期，让投资者相信半导体短缺最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。理想汽车预计第二季度交付量将达到 14,500 至 15,500 辆，高端环比增长 22%。该公司表示，鉴于 Li One SUV 升级版的订单强于预期，因此对实际数量将超过指导值持乐观态度。蔚来还重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着 6 月份可能会交付创纪录的 8,200 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Now are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>现在这些股票在当前水平上值得买入吗？虽然增长前景确实强劲，但按照目前的估值，这些股票似乎并不便宜。蔚来的远期收入为 14 倍，理想汽车的远期收入为 9 倍，小鹏汽车的远期收入约为 16 倍。电动汽车估值的近期威胁包括通胀上升和美联储最近的评论，美联储现在显然正在考虑在 2023 年而不是 2024 年加息两次。这可能会给包括电动汽车在内的高市盈率、高增长股票带来压力。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6/2/2021]中国电动汽车最糟糕的半导体危机结束了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车巨头蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）提供的 5 月份交付数据好坏参半，因为它们继续受到当前半导体短缺的影响。虽然蔚来 5 月份共交付了 6,711 辆汽车，比 4 月份下降了 5.5%，但小鹏汽车上个月的交付量增长了约 10%，达到 5,686 辆，尽管这一数字低于 1 月份 6,015 辆的月销量峰值。尽管两家公司都报告了强劲的同比增长数据（2 倍至 6 倍），但快速增长公司的连续数据受到更密切的跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> However, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事情可能会从这里开始变得更好。例如，蔚来重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着该公司 6 月份的交付量可能高达 8,200 辆，创下月度纪录。这可能表明全球汽车半导体短缺正在缓解，也表明尽管竞争日益激烈，但蔚来仍在中国电动汽车市场占据一席之地。蔚来股价在周二的交易中上涨了近 10%，而小鹏汽车的股价在报告发布后上涨了约 8%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近上涨，但在当前水平上，这些股票可能仍然值得考虑。今年迄今为止，蔚来股价仍下跌约 20%，而小鹏汽车则下跌约 22%。请参阅我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>概述三家在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务和估值指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5/21/2021]中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）今年表现不佳，自 1 月初以来，其股价均下跌了约 30%。那么这些股票在回调后对比如何呢？虽然蔚来和小鹏汽车的价格仍然高于理想汽车，但它们的较高估值可能有几个原因。这里有更多关于这些公司的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>比较主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车企业的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来仍然是这三家公司中估值最高的，交易价格约为远期收入的 10.5 倍。根据普遍估计，今年的收入可能会增长超过 110%。鉴于该公司广泛的产品组合（市场上已经有三款车型）、电池更换等独特的创新、全球扩张计划以及对自动驾驶的投资，长期增长也可能保持强劲。蔚来品牌也更受欢迎，该公司被视为特斯拉在华最直接的竞争对手。2021 年第一季度的毛利率为 19.5%，高于一年前的负 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的交易价格约为 2021 年收入预计的 10 倍。根据普遍估计，销售增长预计将是这三家公司中最强劲的，今年增长超过 150%。除了更高的预计增长外，由于该公司在自动驾驶领域的进展，投资者还给予该公司溢价。小鹏目前销售G3 SUV和P7轿车，其新款P5紧凑型轿车可能会在今年晚些时候上路。虽然小鹏汽车的毛利率有所改善，比第一季度上升至约 11%，而一年前则为负水平，但仍低于蔚来的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车的交易价格仅为 2021 年预计收入的 6 倍，是三家公司中最低的。今年的收入可能会大约翻一番，截至 2020 年第四季度，毛利率为 17.5%（该公司尚未报告第一季度业绩）。估值较低可能是因为该公司专注于单一产品--Li Xiang ONE，这是一款电动 SUV，也配备了小型汽油发动机，同时也是因为理想汽车在自动驾驶技术方面落后于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[10/30/2020]蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车如何比较</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysis<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车领域正在蓬勃发展，中国制造商占全球电动汽车交付量的 50% 以上。中国对电动汽车的需求可能会保持强劲，因为中国政府希望到 2025 年，中国销售的所有新车中约有 25% 是电动汽车，而目前这一比例约为 5%。[1]虽然特斯拉在其上海新工厂的生产推动下成为中国豪华电动汽车市场的领导者，但蔚来、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）这三家相对年轻的美国上市中国电动汽车公司也越来越受到关注。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。分析的部分内容总结如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview Of Nio, Li Auto &amp; Xpeng’s Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏的业务概述</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，目前提供三款高端电动SUV：ES8、ES6和EC6，起价约为5万美元。该公司正在致力于开发自动驾驶技术，并提供其他独特的创新，例如电池即服务 (BaaS)，该技术允许客户订阅汽车电池，而不是预先付费。虽然该公司已经扩大了生产规模，但也并非没有挑战，去年在接到多起火灾报告后，该公司召回了约 5000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车销售增程式电动汽车，本质上是电动汽车，也有一个小型汽油发动机，可以为电池产生额外的电力。这减少了对电动汽车充电基础设施的需求，而电动汽车充电基础设施目前在中国有限。该公司的混合动力战略似乎正在取得成效--其售价约为 4.6 万美元的 Li ONE SUV 在 2020 年 9 月成为中国新能源汽车领域最畅销的 SUV。新能源细分市场包括燃料电池、电动和插电式混合动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车生产和销售包括 G3 SUV 和 P7 四门轿车在内的高端电动汽车，大致定位为特斯拉 Model Y SUV 和 Model 3 轿车的竞争对手，尽管它们的价格更实惠，G3 的基本版补贴后起价约为 22,000 美元。G3 SUV是2019年中国电动SUV销量前三名。虽然该公司于2018年底开始生产，最初是通过与一家老牌汽车制造商达成协议，但它已经开始在广东省自己的工厂生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Have The Deliveries, Revenues &amp; Margins Trended</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量、收入和利润率的趋势如何</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&amp;D and SG&amp;A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2019年交付了约2.1万辆汽车，高于2018年的约1.1万辆。相比之下，小鹏汽车在 2019 年交付了约 1.3 万辆汽车，理想汽车汽车交付了约 1000 辆汽车，考虑到它去年年底才开始生产。蔚来今年的交付量可能接近 4 万辆左右，而理想汽车和小鹏汽车的交付量可能达到 2.5 万辆左右，其中理想汽车的交付量增幅最大。2019 年，蔚来的收入为 11 亿美元，而理想汽车约为 4000 万美元，小鹏约为 3.3 亿美元。蔚来今年的收入可能增长 95%，而小鹏汽车的收入可能增长约 120%。这三家公司仍然严重亏损，因为与研发和SG&amp;A相关的成本相对于收入仍然很高。2019 年，蔚来的净利润率为-195%，理想汽车的利润率约为-860%，而小鹏的利润率为-160%。然而，随着销量的回升，利润率可能会在 2020 年大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2020 年 10 月 28 日，蔚来的市值约为 370 亿美元，由于投资者对电动汽车股票的兴趣激增，其股价今年迄今上涨了约 7 倍。理想汽车和小鹏汽车均于 8 月左右在美国上市，希望利用飙升的估值，市值分别约为 150 亿美元和 140 亿美元。相对而言，蔚来的交易价格约为 2020 年收入的 15 倍，理想汽车的交易价格约为 12 倍，而小鹏的交易价格约为 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> While valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.</p><p><blockquote>虽然估值肯定很高，但投资者可能会押注这些公司将继续在国内市场发展壮大，同时利用中国相对低成本的制造业以及中国的电池和汽车零部件供应商生态系统，最终在全球电动汽车领域发挥更大的作用。在这三家公司中，考虑到其稍长的业绩记录、较高的收入以及对电池更换和自动驾驶等技术的投资，蔚来可能是更安全的选择。考虑到其快速增长（由混合动力系统的采用推动）以及相对有吸引力的估值（约 2020 年收入的 12 倍），理想汽车看起来也很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in<b>Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks</b>can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车是交通运输的未来，但选择合适的电动汽车股票可能很棘手。投资于<b>电动汽车零部件供应商库存</b>可能是推动电动汽车市场增长的一个很好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143759096","content_text":"(June 22) EV stocks fell in morning trading. Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%, LI fell about 2%.\n\nLi Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes, According To Forbes.\nThe stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.\nThe outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.\nNow are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.\n[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?\nChinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.\nHowever, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.\nDespite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.\n[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?\nU.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.\nOur analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.\nNio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.\nXpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.\nLi Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.\n[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare\nThe Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysisNio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.\nOverview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Business\nNio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.\nLi Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.\nXpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.\nHow Have The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended\nNio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&D and SG&A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.\nValuation\nNio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.\nWhile valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.\nElectric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing inElectric Vehicle Component Supplier Stockscan be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121228956,"gmtCreate":1624466410275,"gmtModify":1634005666225,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121228956","repostId":"1135867851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123487119,"gmtCreate":1624434902731,"gmtModify":1634006180370,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"They have the funds to pivot/upgrade operations but definitely not worth the current price point.&nbsp;","listText":"They have the funds to pivot/upgrade operations but definitely not worth the current price point.&nbsp;","text":"They have the funds to pivot/upgrade operations but definitely not worth the current price point.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123487119","repostId":"2145520610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123935663,"gmtCreate":1624406173352,"gmtModify":1634006697147,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123935663","repostId":"1108697564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123904307,"gmtCreate":1624405636809,"gmtModify":1634006715587,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123904307","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120444629,"gmtCreate":1624334842961,"gmtModify":1634007610265,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm [Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm [Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"Hmm [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120444629","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120440419,"gmtCreate":1624334335631,"gmtModify":1634007615609,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120440419","repostId":"1167650307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120367877,"gmtCreate":1624302056999,"gmtModify":1634008154546,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120367877","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应引发的火焰和硫磺中，我们注意到有两个切实的变化，尽管不太引人注目：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将 IOER 和 RRP 利率均上调 5 个基点（美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测，而花旗、牛津经济、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行预测利率不会变化是错误的），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的 0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如 Curvature Securities 回购大师 Scott Skyrm 上周所写，“显然美联储打算将隔夜利率推至零以上，并耗尽 RRP 工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要实现的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对隔夜费率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么呢？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的增加应该会使每日联邦基金利率上升5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。再加上建议零售价上涨 5 个基点，GC 应该会上涨 5 个基点，而且确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如 Skyrm 警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术性调整无助于缓解 RRP 数量：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%，建议零售价利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入了建议零售价。好吧，如果市场回购利率和建议零售价利率都高出 5 个基点，就没有理由从建议零售价中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为 0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或存放在那里的创纪录的五万亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，boy 是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就创纪录地飙升了 50%，作为政府支持企业，激增至惊人的 7,560 亿美元（周五收盘价为 7,470 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，充斥美联储的RRP设施和清空储备几乎不是美联储的意图，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购大师（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的尸检中写道，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价贷款将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储，无处可借贷）转变为负债约束（存款流失，除了货币市场，无处可替代</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，之前 0.00% 的建议零售价率并没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性、超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储正在提供与数万亿美元票据提供的利率相比的慷慨收益率，我们即将看到一夜之间货币市场的巨大变化，数万亿美元的资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价中。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如波萨尔所说，“RRP 设施开始对储备进行消毒……未来还会有更多储备。”正如德意志银行解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误一样，对波萨尔来说，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>该公司犯了一个政策错误--只是这次是在技术利率方面--取消了准备金，因为 “在严格来说没有必要提高 RRP 设施的利率时提高利率是一回事，而将利率提高 ‘过度 ’又是另一回事--正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天我们一年连一个基点都拿不到；从最值得信赖的交易对手那里以五个基点获得无尽的纸张是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为 0 个基点太低，但目前还不是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>波萨尔警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>会扰乱“奇点”的状态</b>“就像寻求热量的导弹一样，货币市场投资者移动数千亿美元，进行急剧的 90 度转弯，寻找零区间哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在 5 个基点的情况下，货币基金有动力交易所有国库券并将现金存放在 RRP 设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下所示，6 个月内票据收益率低于 5 个基点，<b>货币基金有超过2万亿美元的钞票。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人则有买入的动机： 那些存款一直被银行 “容忍 ”的机构，到目前为止赚取零利息，他们有动机收获票据曲线提供的 0-5 个基点范围。将现金放在账单的基点比存款为零要好。<b>因此，准备金的冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个基本上被动的工具转变为一个主动的工具，该工具为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限，该工具“吸走”银行决定保留的存款。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷的策略师建议进行以下 “极端 ”思维实验： 目前银行的大部分 “Covid-19 ”存款都进入了利率较高的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存入银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/n RRP。简单地说，虽然之前美联储为银行提供了一个方便的地方来存放准备金，但现在它将积极抽干准备金，以至于我们可能会陷入另一场 2019 年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己陷入了困境<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使他们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察美联储冲销的后果。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与 2019 年的回购危机相似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以处理资金流出，<b>一些债券重的银行不能。</b>因此，佐尔坦预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从 FHLB 借入预付款，而现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场上放贷，因为建议零售价机制将准备金从它们手中抽走，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键的资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降至之前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如佐尔坦总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”--事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份挽回了自己，当时它扩大了建议零售价的使用，但没有使其受到负债约束，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这很有效——上周三，<b>美联储将 “无限 ”数量变成了 “免费资金”，并开始对储备进行冲销。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商 (DoLR) 学习交易艺术，犯下非受迫性错误——如果美联储用定价过高的 o/n RRP 工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期额度增加流动性……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过5个基点支付数万亿美元的准备金，美联储只是埋下了下一次流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应引发的火焰和硫磺中，我们注意到有两个切实的变化，尽管不太引人注目：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将 IOER 和 RRP 利率均上调 5 个基点（美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测，而花旗、牛津经济、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行预测利率不会变化是错误的），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的 0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如 Curvature Securities 回购大师 Scott Skyrm 上周所写，“显然美联储打算将隔夜利率推至零以上，并耗尽 RRP 工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要实现的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对隔夜费率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么呢？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的增加应该会使每日联邦基金利率上升5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。再加上建议零售价上涨 5 个基点，GC 应该会上涨 5 个基点，而且确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如 Skyrm 警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术性调整无助于缓解 RRP 数量：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%，建议零售价利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入了建议零售价。好吧，如果市场回购利率和建议零售价利率都高出 5 个基点，就没有理由从建议零售价中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为 0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或存放在那里的创纪录的五万亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，boy 是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就创纪录地飙升了 50%，作为政府支持企业，激增至惊人的 7,560 亿美元（周五收盘价为 7,470 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，充斥美联储的RRP设施和清空储备几乎不是美联储的意图，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购大师（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的尸检中写道，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价贷款将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储，无处可借贷）转变为负债约束（存款流失，除了货币市场，无处可替代</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，之前 0.00% 的建议零售价率并没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性、超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储正在提供与数万亿美元票据提供的利率相比的慷慨收益率，我们即将看到一夜之间货币市场的巨大变化，数万亿美元的资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价中。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如波萨尔所说，“RRP 设施开始对储备进行消毒……未来还会有更多储备。”正如德意志银行解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误一样，对波萨尔来说，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>该公司犯了一个政策错误--只是这次是在技术利率方面--取消了准备金，因为 “在严格来说没有必要提高 RRP 设施的利率时提高利率是一回事，而将利率提高 ‘过度 ’又是另一回事--正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天我们一年连一个基点都拿不到；从最值得信赖的交易对手那里以五个基点获得无尽的纸张是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为 0 个基点太低，但目前还不是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>波萨尔警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>会扰乱“奇点”的状态</b>“就像寻求热量的导弹一样，货币市场投资者移动数千亿美元，进行急剧的 90 度转弯，寻找零区间哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在 5 个基点的情况下，货币基金有动力交易所有国库券并将现金存放在 RRP 设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下所示，6 个月内票据收益率低于 5 个基点，<b>货币基金有超过2万亿美元的钞票。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人则有买入的动机： 那些存款一直被银行 “容忍 ”的机构，到目前为止赚取零利息，他们有动机收获票据曲线提供的 0-5 个基点范围。将现金放在账单的基点比存款为零要好。<b>因此，准备金的冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个基本上被动的工具转变为一个主动的工具，该工具为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限，该工具“吸走”银行决定保留的存款。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷的策略师建议进行以下 “极端 ”思维实验： 目前银行的大部分 “Covid-19 ”存款都进入了利率较高的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存入银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/n RRP。简单地说，虽然之前美联储为银行提供了一个方便的地方来存放准备金，但现在它将积极抽干准备金，以至于我们可能会陷入另一场 2019 年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己陷入了困境<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使他们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察美联储冲销的后果。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与 2019 年的回购危机相似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以处理资金流出，<b>一些债券重的银行不能。</b>因此，佐尔坦预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从 FHLB 借入预付款，而现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场上放贷，因为建议零售价机制将准备金从它们手中抽走，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键的资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降至之前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如佐尔坦总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”--事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份挽回了自己，当时它扩大了建议零售价的使用，但没有使其受到负债约束，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这很有效——上周三，<b>美联储将 “无限 ”数量变成了 “免费资金”，并开始对储备进行冲销。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商 (DoLR) 学习交易艺术，犯下非受迫性错误——如果美联储用定价过高的 o/n RRP 工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期额度增加流动性……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过5个基点支付数万亿美元的准备金，美联储只是埋下了下一次流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":126606019,"gmtCreate":1624554717231,"gmtModify":1631891546967,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126606019","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126518254,"gmtCreate":1624578513378,"gmtModify":1631891546953,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126518254","repostId":"2146023477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126609272,"gmtCreate":1624554492696,"gmtModify":1631891546971,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126609272","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121222091,"gmtCreate":1624466503913,"gmtModify":1634005664522,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121222091","repostId":"1198462718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198462718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624448358,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198462718?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市未来十年仍面临艰难</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198462718","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after al","content":"<p>  <b>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.</b>  Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率的增长速度将与美国经济的增长速度相同。</b>毕竟，美国股市在未来十年的回报还有希望吗？我提出这个问题是为了跟进本月早些时候的 tomy 专栏，其中我得出的结论是，即使在乐观的假设下，标准普尔 500SPX,+0.51% 在未来 10 年内也不太可能产生高于低个位数的年化总实际回报率。</blockquote></p><p> My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，股市将无法依靠过去十年支撑股市的三大支柱——不断增长的估值、利润率以及比已发行新股更多的回购（净回购）。</blockquote></p><p> Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.</p><p><blockquote>一些读者回应说，我忽略了一个能让市场产生可观回报的逃生舱口：企业收入的增长速度可以快于美国整体经济。在这种情况下，股市不需要这三大支柱中的任何一个就能表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>这个逃生舱口背后似乎有确凿的证据。考虑瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师兼量化研究主管乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 最近给客户的一份报告。他报告说，根据他自 2000 年以来根据标普500销售额和 GDP 构建的计量经济学模型，“名义 GDP 每增长 1%，收入就会增长 2.5-3%”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这对股票投资者来说肯定是件好事。这意味着，即使估值、利润率或净回购没有增加，股市的表现也可能明显优于整体经济。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，这种说法好得令人难以置信。我分析了20世纪70年代初的标普500销售额（由Ned Davis Research提供的数据提供），发现销售额增长和GDP增长之间几乎有1:1的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”</p><p><blockquote>研究附属公司董事长兼创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 表示，这完全是我们应该期待的。他在一封电子邮件中说，“总销售额与国内生产总值的比例应该是相当干净的 1:1。任何其他比例在持续的基础上都没有意义”。</blockquote></p><p> How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)</p><p><blockquote>那么，Golub是如何想出如此不同的答案的呢？我的预感是这可以追溯到他衡量销售额的方式。Golub 的同事、瑞士信贷的股票策略师 Manish Bangard 在一封电子邮件中解释说，他们关注的是每股销售额。但是，正如阿诺特指出的那样，这个每股数字反映了净回购的影响。因此，Golub报告的高销售额与GDP的比率并不是销售增长与GDP关系的纯粹衡量标准。（我没有收到对我的补充评论请求的答复。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment implication</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资含义</b></blockquote></p><p> The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不应该指望美国股市在未来十年的增长速度超过经济。事实上，如果市盈率或利润率回落到历史平均水平的一半，或者如果净回购为负值（美国历史上的大部分时间都是如此），那么它的增长速度可能会慢得多。</blockquote></p><p> But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.</p><p><blockquote>但即使从现在到2031年市盈率和利润率保持不变，并且没有净回购，历史教训是美国市场的增长速度也不会快于经济增长速度。</blockquote></p><p> Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.</p><p><blockquote>想想这意味着什么。国会预算办公室预计，从2022年到2031年，实际GDP将以1.8%的年增长率增长。即使这样也可能是乐观的，因为国会预算办公室预计从现在到那时不会出现衰退。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.</p><p><blockquote>一句话：股市还有很长的路要走，即使是过去十年惊人回报的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市未来十年仍面临艰难</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市未来十年仍面临艰难</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 19:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.</b>  Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率的增长速度将与美国经济的增长速度相同。</b>毕竟，美国股市在未来十年的回报还有希望吗？我提出这个问题是为了跟进本月早些时候的 tomy 专栏，其中我得出的结论是，即使在乐观的假设下，标准普尔 500SPX,+0.51% 在未来 10 年内也不太可能产生高于低个位数的年化总实际回报率。</blockquote></p><p> My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，股市将无法依靠过去十年支撑股市的三大支柱——不断增长的估值、利润率以及比已发行新股更多的回购（净回购）。</blockquote></p><p> Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.</p><p><blockquote>一些读者回应说，我忽略了一个能让市场产生可观回报的逃生舱口：企业收入的增长速度可以快于美国整体经济。在这种情况下，股市不需要这三大支柱中的任何一个就能表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>这个逃生舱口背后似乎有确凿的证据。考虑瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师兼量化研究主管乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 最近给客户的一份报告。他报告说，根据他自 2000 年以来根据标普500销售额和 GDP 构建的计量经济学模型，“名义 GDP 每增长 1%，收入就会增长 2.5-3%”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这对股票投资者来说肯定是件好事。这意味着，即使估值、利润率或净回购没有增加，股市的表现也可能明显优于整体经济。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，这种说法好得令人难以置信。我分析了20世纪70年代初的标普500销售额（由Ned Davis Research提供的数据提供），发现销售额增长和GDP增长之间几乎有1:1的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”</p><p><blockquote>研究附属公司董事长兼创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 表示，这完全是我们应该期待的。他在一封电子邮件中说，“总销售额与国内生产总值的比例应该是相当干净的 1:1。任何其他比例在持续的基础上都没有意义”。</blockquote></p><p> How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)</p><p><blockquote>那么，Golub是如何想出如此不同的答案的呢？我的预感是这可以追溯到他衡量销售额的方式。Golub 的同事、瑞士信贷的股票策略师 Manish Bangard 在一封电子邮件中解释说，他们关注的是每股销售额。但是，正如阿诺特指出的那样，这个每股数字反映了净回购的影响。因此，Golub报告的高销售额与GDP的比率并不是销售增长与GDP关系的纯粹衡量标准。（我没有收到对我的补充评论请求的答复。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment implication</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资含义</b></blockquote></p><p> The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不应该指望美国股市在未来十年的增长速度超过经济。事实上，如果市盈率或利润率回落到历史平均水平的一半，或者如果净回购为负值（美国历史上的大部分时间都是如此），那么它的增长速度可能会慢得多。</blockquote></p><p> But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.</p><p><blockquote>但即使从现在到2031年市盈率和利润率保持不变，并且没有净回购，历史教训是美国市场的增长速度也不会快于经济增长速度。</blockquote></p><p> Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.</p><p><blockquote>想想这意味着什么。国会预算办公室预计，从2022年到2031年，实际GDP将以1.8%的年增长率增长。即使这样也可能是乐观的，因为国会预算办公室预计从现在到那时不会出现衰退。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.</p><p><blockquote>一句话：股市还有很长的路要走，即使是过去十年惊人回报的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198462718","content_text":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.\nMy argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).\nSome readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.\nThis escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”\nIf so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.\nUnfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.\nThis is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”\nHow then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)\nInvestment implication\nThe implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).\nBut even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.\nConsider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.\nThe bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126606892,"gmtCreate":1624554750116,"gmtModify":1631891546964,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126606892","repostId":"2145704596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128440404,"gmtCreate":1624529003208,"gmtModify":1631891546974,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Recovery is good","listText":"Recovery is good","text":"Recovery is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128440404","repostId":"1193957491","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193957491","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624528216,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193957491?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The global recovery is running red hot. Here's proof<blockquote>全球复苏如火如荼。这是证据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193957491","media":"CNN","summary":"London (CNN Business) Supply chain issues and other post-pandemic headaches can't mask this reality:","content":"<p><b>London (CNN Business)</b>&nbsp;Supply chain issues and other post-pandemic headaches can't mask this reality: The global economic recovery is powering ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN 商业频道）</b>供应链问题和其他大流行后的难题无法掩盖这一现实：全球经济复苏正在向前推进。</blockquote></p><p> What's happening: Business activity within the 19 countries that use the euro grew at the fastest rate in 15 years in June, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index from IHS Markit, a closely-monitored source of data.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：根据受到密切监控的数据来源 IHS Markit 的采购经理人指数，6 月份使用欧元的 19 个国家的商业活动以 15 年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, home prices in the United States rose at the quickest pace on record in May, reaching new highs due to a shortage of stock and exploding demand. The median existing home price last month was $350,300, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors, up 24% from 2020.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于库存短缺和需求爆炸式增长，美国5月份房价以有记录以来最快的速度上涨，创下新高。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的一份报告，上个月现有房价中值为350,300美元，比2020年上涨了24%。</blockquote></p><p> The phenomenon is global. House prices in the Netherlands increased nearly 13% year-over-year in May, the largest increase since 2001.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象是全球性的。荷兰5月份房价同比上涨近13%，为2001年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Step back: The global economy is clearly still trying to work out kinks in the system.</p><p><blockquote>退后一步：全球经济显然仍在试图解决系统中的问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"Despite firms taking on extra staff at the sharpest rate for almost three years, June saw a record rise in backlogs of work, a further near-record lengthening of supply chains and the increasingly widespread depletion of warehouse inventories,\" IHS Markit found in its survey of European businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit 在对欧洲企业的调查中发现：“尽管企业以近三年来最快的速度招聘额外员工，但 6 月份积压工作仍创下历史新高，供应链进一步接近历史新高的延长，仓库库存日益普遍枯竭。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet firms have a rosy view of the future, and economists are impressed by the data they're seeing. The latest PMI reading out of the United States is due later Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>然而，企业对未来持乐观态度，经济学家对他们看到的数据印象深刻。美国最新的PMI数据将于周三晚些时候公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"Most economic indicators have been suggesting that a strong recovery is underway,\" Richard Amaro, senior economist at Oxford Economics, told clients. \"But today's flash PMIs were even more impressive than expected and signaled that eurozone growth momentum has gone from strong to even stronger.\"</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院高级经济学家理查德·阿马罗告诉客户：“大多数经济指标都表明强劲复苏正在进行。”“但今天的初步采购经理人指数比预期更令人印象深刻，表明欧元区增长势头已从强劲转向更加强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> That leaves policymakers to puzzle out their next steps. The economy is booming thanks to unprecedented levels of support. But throwing too much gasoline on the fire runs the risk of overheating.</p><p><blockquote>这让政策制定者对他们的下一步行动感到困惑。由于前所未有的支持水平，经济正在蓬勃发展。但是往火上泼了太多汽油会有过热的风险。</blockquote></p><p> IHS Markit noted that in Europe, prices for goods and services \"rose at an unprecedented rate ... as demand continued to outstrip supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit 指出，在欧洲，商品和服务价格“以前所未有的速度上涨……因为需求继续超过供应”。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to US lawmakers on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his ground, noting that worries about inflation wouldn't be sufficient for the central bank to change its course.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二在对美国立法者发表讲话时坚持自己的立场，指出对通胀的担忧不足以让央行改变路线。</blockquote></p><p> \"We will not raise interest rates preemptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation,\" Powell said. \"We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“我们不会先发制人地加息，因为我们担心可能出现通货膨胀。”“我们将等待实际通胀或其他失衡的证据。”</blockquote></p><p> But as house prices shoot up, calls are growing for the Fed and its peers to reassess their stances, especially as evidence grows that some would-be homebuyers are getting priced out of the market. Home sales declined for the third straight month in May, as the National Association of Realtors warned that many first-time buyers are having trouble securing properties.</p><p><blockquote>但随着房价飙升，美联储及其同行重新评估立场的评级越来越大，特别是随着越来越多的证据表明一些潜在购房者被定价出市场。5月份房屋销售连续第三个月下降，因为全国房地产经纪人协会警告说，许多首次购房者在获得房产方面遇到了困难。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft joins the elusive $2 trillion club</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软加入难以捉摸的 2 万亿美元俱乐部</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) briefly entered the most elite of clubs this week: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>微软（MSFT）本周短暂进入了最精英的俱乐部：市值超过2万亿美元的公司。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the tech giant became only the second publicly-traded American company to earn such a distinction, joining Apple (AAPL), my CNN Business colleague Clare Duffy reports.</p><p><blockquote>据我的 CNN 商业同事克莱尔·达菲 (Clare Duffy) 报道，周二，这家科技巨头加入了苹果 (AAPL) 的行列，成为第二家获得这一殊荣的上市公司。</blockquote></p><p> Oil behemoth Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019, previously passed that mark, though its market cap on Tuesday was below $1.9 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>2019 年上市的石油巨头沙特阿美公司此前就突破了这一大关，尽管其周二的市值低于 1.9 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The journey: Microsoft has doubled in value in just over two years. That's thanks in part to Covid-19. The pandemic meant people were spending more time on their devices, boosting demand for Microsoft's computers, gaming systems and cloud computing platform. And the broader stock market rally, juiced by crisis-era stimulus programs, has been a huge boon for tech shares.</p><p><blockquote>旅程：微软的价值在短短两年多的时间里翻了一番。这部分要归功于 Covid-19。疫情意味着人们在设备上花费了更多时间，从而推动了对微软计算机、游戏系统和云计算平台的需求。在危机时期刺激计划的推动下，更广泛的股市上涨对科技股来说是一个巨大的利好。</blockquote></p><p> In April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to nearly $42 billion for the first three months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>4 月份，微软报告称今年前三个月销售额同比增长 19%，达到近 420 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down,\" CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement at the time.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉当时在一份声明中表示：“疫情爆发一年多后，数字采用曲线并没有放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple's market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands above $2.2 trillion. Amazon (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) are also in contention to pass the $2 trillion threshold. On Tuesday, the companies were valued at nearly $1.8 trillion and almost $1.7 trillion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的市值去年8月超过2万亿美元，目前超过2.2万亿美元。亚马逊（AMZN）和谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOGL）也在争夺突破2万亿美元门槛。周二，这两家公司的估值分别接近 1.8 万亿美元和近 1.7 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The world added 5.2 million new millionaires last year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>去年全球新增百万富翁520万</b></blockquote></p><p> It's common knowledge that the pandemic benefited the world's rich, as swift intervention by governments and central banks triggered a seismic stock market rebound and sent real estate prices soaring — despite a global recession.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，尽管全球经济衰退，但疫情使世界富人受益，因为政府和央行的迅速干预引发了股市的地震式反弹，并导致房地产价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> But the extent to which the wealthy profited continues to surprise.</p><p><blockquote>但富人获利的程度仍然令人惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> \"The contrast between what has happened to household wealth and what is happening in the wider economy can never have been more stark,\" Credit Suisse wrote in its annual report on global wealth published this week.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷在本周发布的全球财富年度报告中写道：“家庭财富的变化与更广泛经济的变化之间的对比从未如此鲜明。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bank found that $28.7 trillion in global wealth was generated in 2020, and that \"countries most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic have often been those recording the greatest gains.\"</p><p><blockquote>该银行发现，2020 年全球财富创造了 28.7 万亿美元，“受 Covid-19 大流行影响最严重的国家往往是收益最大的国家”。</blockquote></p><p> Take the United States, which added $11.4 trillion in wealth— defined as financial assets less debts — last year. That's more than the contributions of China, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom combined.</p><p><blockquote>以美国为例，该国去年增加了 11.4 万亿美元的财富（定义为金融资产减去债务）。这比中国、德国、日本和英国的捐款总和还要多。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is nothing ... to suggest that the economic upheaval in 2020 bore any resemblance to that experienced in 2008,\" Credit Suisse writes. \"Household wealth appears to have simply continued on its way, paying little or no attention to the economic turmoil that should have hampered progress.\"</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷写道：“没有任何迹象表明 2020 年的经济动荡与 2008 年的经济动荡有任何相似之处。”“家庭财富似乎只是继续增长，很少或根本不关注本应阻碍进步的经济动荡。”</blockquote></p><p> Of note: The number of millionaires around the world grew by 5.2 million last year to reach 56.1 million. The super-rich also got ... super richer, with the ranks of ultra-high net worth individuals swelling at their fastest rate since 2003.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是：去年全球百万富翁人数增加了520万，达到5610万。超级富豪也得到了……超级富豪，超高净值人士的队伍以2003年以来最快的速度膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> New US home sales for May post at 10 a.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>美国5月份新屋销售将于美国东部时间上午10点公布。</blockquote></p><p> Coming tomorrow: Earnings from Rite Aid (RAD), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX).</p><p><blockquote>明天：Rite Aid (RAD)、Darden Restaurants (DRI)、Nike (NKE) 和 FedEx (FDX) 的收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The global recovery is running red hot. Here's proof<blockquote>全球复苏如火如荼。这是证据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe global recovery is running red hot. Here's proof<blockquote>全球复苏如火如荼。这是证据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 17:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>London (CNN Business)</b>&nbsp;Supply chain issues and other post-pandemic headaches can't mask this reality: The global economic recovery is powering ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN 商业频道）</b>供应链问题和其他大流行后的难题无法掩盖这一现实：全球经济复苏正在向前推进。</blockquote></p><p> What's happening: Business activity within the 19 countries that use the euro grew at the fastest rate in 15 years in June, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index from IHS Markit, a closely-monitored source of data.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：根据受到密切监控的数据来源 IHS Markit 的采购经理人指数，6 月份使用欧元的 19 个国家的商业活动以 15 年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, home prices in the United States rose at the quickest pace on record in May, reaching new highs due to a shortage of stock and exploding demand. The median existing home price last month was $350,300, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors, up 24% from 2020.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于库存短缺和需求爆炸式增长，美国5月份房价以有记录以来最快的速度上涨，创下新高。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的一份报告，上个月现有房价中值为350,300美元，比2020年上涨了24%。</blockquote></p><p> The phenomenon is global. House prices in the Netherlands increased nearly 13% year-over-year in May, the largest increase since 2001.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象是全球性的。荷兰5月份房价同比上涨近13%，为2001年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Step back: The global economy is clearly still trying to work out kinks in the system.</p><p><blockquote>退后一步：全球经济显然仍在试图解决系统中的问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"Despite firms taking on extra staff at the sharpest rate for almost three years, June saw a record rise in backlogs of work, a further near-record lengthening of supply chains and the increasingly widespread depletion of warehouse inventories,\" IHS Markit found in its survey of European businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit 在对欧洲企业的调查中发现：“尽管企业以近三年来最快的速度招聘额外员工，但 6 月份积压工作仍创下历史新高，供应链进一步接近历史新高的延长，仓库库存日益普遍枯竭。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet firms have a rosy view of the future, and economists are impressed by the data they're seeing. The latest PMI reading out of the United States is due later Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>然而，企业对未来持乐观态度，经济学家对他们看到的数据印象深刻。美国最新的PMI数据将于周三晚些时候公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"Most economic indicators have been suggesting that a strong recovery is underway,\" Richard Amaro, senior economist at Oxford Economics, told clients. \"But today's flash PMIs were even more impressive than expected and signaled that eurozone growth momentum has gone from strong to even stronger.\"</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院高级经济学家理查德·阿马罗告诉客户：“大多数经济指标都表明强劲复苏正在进行。”“但今天的初步采购经理人指数比预期更令人印象深刻，表明欧元区增长势头已从强劲转向更加强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> That leaves policymakers to puzzle out their next steps. The economy is booming thanks to unprecedented levels of support. But throwing too much gasoline on the fire runs the risk of overheating.</p><p><blockquote>这让政策制定者对他们的下一步行动感到困惑。由于前所未有的支持水平，经济正在蓬勃发展。但是往火上泼了太多汽油会有过热的风险。</blockquote></p><p> IHS Markit noted that in Europe, prices for goods and services \"rose at an unprecedented rate ... as demand continued to outstrip supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit 指出，在欧洲，商品和服务价格“以前所未有的速度上涨……因为需求继续超过供应”。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to US lawmakers on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his ground, noting that worries about inflation wouldn't be sufficient for the central bank to change its course.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二在对美国立法者发表讲话时坚持自己的立场，指出对通胀的担忧不足以让央行改变路线。</blockquote></p><p> \"We will not raise interest rates preemptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation,\" Powell said. \"We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“我们不会先发制人地加息，因为我们担心可能出现通货膨胀。”“我们将等待实际通胀或其他失衡的证据。”</blockquote></p><p> But as house prices shoot up, calls are growing for the Fed and its peers to reassess their stances, especially as evidence grows that some would-be homebuyers are getting priced out of the market. Home sales declined for the third straight month in May, as the National Association of Realtors warned that many first-time buyers are having trouble securing properties.</p><p><blockquote>但随着房价飙升，美联储及其同行重新评估立场的评级越来越大，特别是随着越来越多的证据表明一些潜在购房者被定价出市场。5月份房屋销售连续第三个月下降，因为全国房地产经纪人协会警告说，许多首次购房者在获得房产方面遇到了困难。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft joins the elusive $2 trillion club</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软加入难以捉摸的 2 万亿美元俱乐部</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) briefly entered the most elite of clubs this week: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>微软（MSFT）本周短暂进入了最精英的俱乐部：市值超过2万亿美元的公司。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the tech giant became only the second publicly-traded American company to earn such a distinction, joining Apple (AAPL), my CNN Business colleague Clare Duffy reports.</p><p><blockquote>据我的 CNN 商业同事克莱尔·达菲 (Clare Duffy) 报道，周二，这家科技巨头加入了苹果 (AAPL) 的行列，成为第二家获得这一殊荣的上市公司。</blockquote></p><p> Oil behemoth Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019, previously passed that mark, though its market cap on Tuesday was below $1.9 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>2019 年上市的石油巨头沙特阿美公司此前就突破了这一大关，尽管其周二的市值低于 1.9 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The journey: Microsoft has doubled in value in just over two years. That's thanks in part to Covid-19. The pandemic meant people were spending more time on their devices, boosting demand for Microsoft's computers, gaming systems and cloud computing platform. And the broader stock market rally, juiced by crisis-era stimulus programs, has been a huge boon for tech shares.</p><p><blockquote>旅程：微软的价值在短短两年多的时间里翻了一番。这部分要归功于 Covid-19。疫情意味着人们在设备上花费了更多时间，从而推动了对微软计算机、游戏系统和云计算平台的需求。在危机时期刺激计划的推动下，更广泛的股市上涨对科技股来说是一个巨大的利好。</blockquote></p><p> In April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to nearly $42 billion for the first three months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>4 月份，微软报告称今年前三个月销售额同比增长 19%，达到近 420 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down,\" CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement at the time.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉当时在一份声明中表示：“疫情爆发一年多后，数字采用曲线并没有放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple's market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands above $2.2 trillion. Amazon (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) are also in contention to pass the $2 trillion threshold. On Tuesday, the companies were valued at nearly $1.8 trillion and almost $1.7 trillion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的市值去年8月超过2万亿美元，目前超过2.2万亿美元。亚马逊（AMZN）和谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOGL）也在争夺突破2万亿美元门槛。周二，这两家公司的估值分别接近 1.8 万亿美元和近 1.7 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The world added 5.2 million new millionaires last year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>去年全球新增百万富翁520万</b></blockquote></p><p> It's common knowledge that the pandemic benefited the world's rich, as swift intervention by governments and central banks triggered a seismic stock market rebound and sent real estate prices soaring — despite a global recession.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，尽管全球经济衰退，但疫情使世界富人受益，因为政府和央行的迅速干预引发了股市的地震式反弹，并导致房地产价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> But the extent to which the wealthy profited continues to surprise.</p><p><blockquote>但富人获利的程度仍然令人惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> \"The contrast between what has happened to household wealth and what is happening in the wider economy can never have been more stark,\" Credit Suisse wrote in its annual report on global wealth published this week.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷在本周发布的全球财富年度报告中写道：“家庭财富的变化与更广泛经济的变化之间的对比从未如此鲜明。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bank found that $28.7 trillion in global wealth was generated in 2020, and that \"countries most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic have often been those recording the greatest gains.\"</p><p><blockquote>该银行发现，2020 年全球财富创造了 28.7 万亿美元，“受 Covid-19 大流行影响最严重的国家往往是收益最大的国家”。</blockquote></p><p> Take the United States, which added $11.4 trillion in wealth— defined as financial assets less debts — last year. That's more than the contributions of China, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom combined.</p><p><blockquote>以美国为例，该国去年增加了 11.4 万亿美元的财富（定义为金融资产减去债务）。这比中国、德国、日本和英国的捐款总和还要多。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is nothing ... to suggest that the economic upheaval in 2020 bore any resemblance to that experienced in 2008,\" Credit Suisse writes. \"Household wealth appears to have simply continued on its way, paying little or no attention to the economic turmoil that should have hampered progress.\"</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷写道：“没有任何迹象表明 2020 年的经济动荡与 2008 年的经济动荡有任何相似之处。”“家庭财富似乎只是继续增长，很少或根本不关注本应阻碍进步的经济动荡。”</blockquote></p><p> Of note: The number of millionaires around the world grew by 5.2 million last year to reach 56.1 million. The super-rich also got ... super richer, with the ranks of ultra-high net worth individuals swelling at their fastest rate since 2003.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是：去年全球百万富翁人数增加了520万，达到5610万。超级富豪也得到了……超级富豪，超高净值人士的队伍以2003年以来最快的速度膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> New US home sales for May post at 10 a.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>美国5月份新屋销售将于美国东部时间上午10点公布。</blockquote></p><p> Coming tomorrow: Earnings from Rite Aid (RAD), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX).</p><p><blockquote>明天：Rite Aid (RAD)、Darden Restaurants (DRI)、Nike (NKE) 和 FedEx (FDX) 的收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193957491","content_text":"London (CNN Business) Supply chain issues and other post-pandemic headaches can't mask this reality: The global economic recovery is powering ahead.\nWhat's happening: Business activity within the 19 countries that use the euro grew at the fastest rate in 15 years in June, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index from IHS Markit, a closely-monitored source of data.\nMeanwhile, home prices in the United States rose at the quickest pace on record in May, reaching new highs due to a shortage of stock and exploding demand. The median existing home price last month was $350,300, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors, up 24% from 2020.\nThe phenomenon is global. House prices in the Netherlands increased nearly 13% year-over-year in May, the largest increase since 2001.\nStep back: The global economy is clearly still trying to work out kinks in the system.\n\"Despite firms taking on extra staff at the sharpest rate for almost three years, June saw a record rise in backlogs of work, a further near-record lengthening of supply chains and the increasingly widespread depletion of warehouse inventories,\" IHS Markit found in its survey of European businesses.\nYet firms have a rosy view of the future, and economists are impressed by the data they're seeing. The latest PMI reading out of the United States is due later Wednesday.\n\"Most economic indicators have been suggesting that a strong recovery is underway,\" Richard Amaro, senior economist at Oxford Economics, told clients. \"But today's flash PMIs were even more impressive than expected and signaled that eurozone growth momentum has gone from strong to even stronger.\"\nThat leaves policymakers to puzzle out their next steps. The economy is booming thanks to unprecedented levels of support. But throwing too much gasoline on the fire runs the risk of overheating.\nIHS Markit noted that in Europe, prices for goods and services \"rose at an unprecedented rate ... as demand continued to outstrip supply.\"\nSpeaking to US lawmakers on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his ground, noting that worries about inflation wouldn't be sufficient for the central bank to change its course.\n\"We will not raise interest rates preemptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation,\" Powell said. \"We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.\"\nBut as house prices shoot up, calls are growing for the Fed and its peers to reassess their stances, especially as evidence grows that some would-be homebuyers are getting priced out of the market. Home sales declined for the third straight month in May, as the National Association of Realtors warned that many first-time buyers are having trouble securing properties.\nMicrosoft joins the elusive $2 trillion club\nMicrosoft (MSFT) briefly entered the most elite of clubs this week: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.\nOn Tuesday, the tech giant became only the second publicly-traded American company to earn such a distinction, joining Apple (AAPL), my CNN Business colleague Clare Duffy reports.\nOil behemoth Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019, previously passed that mark, though its market cap on Tuesday was below $1.9 trillion.\nThe journey: Microsoft has doubled in value in just over two years. That's thanks in part to Covid-19. The pandemic meant people were spending more time on their devices, boosting demand for Microsoft's computers, gaming systems and cloud computing platform. And the broader stock market rally, juiced by crisis-era stimulus programs, has been a huge boon for tech shares.\nIn April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to nearly $42 billion for the first three months of the year.\n\"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down,\" CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement at the time.\nApple's market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands above $2.2 trillion. Amazon (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) are also in contention to pass the $2 trillion threshold. On Tuesday, the companies were valued at nearly $1.8 trillion and almost $1.7 trillion, respectively.\nThe world added 5.2 million new millionaires last year\nIt's common knowledge that the pandemic benefited the world's rich, as swift intervention by governments and central banks triggered a seismic stock market rebound and sent real estate prices soaring — despite a global recession.\nBut the extent to which the wealthy profited continues to surprise.\n\"The contrast between what has happened to household wealth and what is happening in the wider economy can never have been more stark,\" Credit Suisse wrote in its annual report on global wealth published this week.\nThe bank found that $28.7 trillion in global wealth was generated in 2020, and that \"countries most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic have often been those recording the greatest gains.\"\nTake the United States, which added $11.4 trillion in wealth— defined as financial assets less debts — last year. That's more than the contributions of China, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom combined.\n\"There is nothing ... to suggest that the economic upheaval in 2020 bore any resemblance to that experienced in 2008,\" Credit Suisse writes. \"Household wealth appears to have simply continued on its way, paying little or no attention to the economic turmoil that should have hampered progress.\"\nOf note: The number of millionaires around the world grew by 5.2 million last year to reach 56.1 million. The super-rich also got ... super richer, with the ranks of ultra-high net worth individuals swelling at their fastest rate since 2003.\nUp next\nNew US home sales for May post at 10 a.m. ET.\nComing tomorrow: Earnings from Rite Aid (RAD), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128016580,"gmtCreate":1624495185940,"gmtModify":1631891546978,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sounds like merger","listText":"Sounds like merger","text":"Sounds like merger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128016580","repostId":"1129538803","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129538803","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624494525,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129538803?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 08:28","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129538803","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thu","content":"<p>June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.</p><p><blockquote>路透 6 月 24 日 - 新加坡上市企业集团吉宝公司 (Keppel Corp) 和钻井平台建造商胜科海事 (Sembcorp Marine) 周四分别向证券交易所提交文件，要求其股票在发布公告之前停牌。</blockquote></p><p> Keppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.</p><p><blockquote>吉宝（Keppel）和胜科海事（Sembcorp Marine）是世界上最大的石油钻井平台建造商之一，但油价长期下跌和钻井平台供应过剩多年来一直对它们的业务造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股公司（Temasek Holdings）是两家公司的最大股东，由于吉宝财务业绩不佳，该公司去年取消了收购吉宝多数股权的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Markets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.</p><p><blockquote>市场原本预计淡马锡将在交易后引领钻机制造行业急需的整合。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&amp;M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&amp;M business.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，吉宝表示，其陷入困境的近海和海洋 (O&amp;M) 部门将退出钻井平台建造服务，该公司还在探索 O&amp;M 业务的无机选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 08:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.</p><p><blockquote>路透 6 月 24 日 - 新加坡上市企业集团吉宝公司 (Keppel Corp) 和钻井平台建造商胜科海事 (Sembcorp Marine) 周四分别向证券交易所提交文件，要求其股票在发布公告之前停牌。</blockquote></p><p> Keppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.</p><p><blockquote>吉宝（Keppel）和胜科海事（Sembcorp Marine）是世界上最大的石油钻井平台建造商之一，但油价长期下跌和钻井平台供应过剩多年来一直对它们的业务造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股公司（Temasek Holdings）是两家公司的最大股东，由于吉宝财务业绩不佳，该公司去年取消了收购吉宝多数股权的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Markets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.</p><p><blockquote>市场原本预计淡马锡将在交易后引领钻机制造行业急需的整合。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&amp;M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&amp;M business.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，吉宝表示，其陷入困境的近海和海洋 (O&amp;M) 部门将退出钻井平台建造服务，该公司还在探索 O&amp;M 业务的无机选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/keppel-corp-trading-halt-sembcorp-marine/update-1-singapores-keppel-sembcorp-marine-request-trading-halts-idUSL2N2O536D\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BN4.SI":"吉宝有限公司"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/keppel-corp-trading-halt-sembcorp-marine/update-1-singapores-keppel-sembcorp-marine-request-trading-halts-idUSL2N2O536D","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129538803","content_text":"June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.\nKeppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.\nSingapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.\nMarkets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.\nEarlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&M business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BN4.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164894911,"gmtCreate":1624189107633,"gmtModify":1634009660822,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164894911","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126602982,"gmtCreate":1624554794846,"gmtModify":1631891546962,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126602982","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123904307,"gmtCreate":1624405636809,"gmtModify":1634006715587,"author":{"id":"3561622089682414","authorId":"3561622089682414","name":"Fat_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b6ba2e658383e4095bd13d7cc5105c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561622089682414","authorIdStr":"3561622089682414"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123904307","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}