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香水百合AUD

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香水百合AUD

02-23 20:40

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@谋定后动:【谋周记】不想天天盯盘，如何稳拿年化10%的“收租”收益？（2026年第08周 | 总第258期）

香水百合AUD

02-18

哪里看到的？

段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus

香水百合AUD

02-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus

香水百合AUD

2023-12-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@捷克Jack:如何用期权更便宜抄底腾讯网易？

香水百合AUD

2023-01-21

半导体自由周期

@价值投资为王:美股大跌，我却从阿斯麦身上赚了56%！

香水百合AUD

2023-01-21

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@博实:复盘腾讯从300下跌至200，是如何思考和加仓的

香水百合AUD

2023-01-12

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@价值投资为王:腾讯翻倍，走还是留？

香水百合AUD

2022-06-25

怎么参与美股定投？

@问就是加仓up:剧烈波动之下，单腿期权的优势正在消失

香水百合AUD

2022-05-20

复盘

抱歉，原内容已删除

香水百合AUD

2022-03-26

不不饿

@博实:腾讯2021年财报分析

香水百合AUD

2022-03-17

良心啊

@OptionPlus:绝地大反击？如何用期权保住你的利润？

香水百合AUD

2022-03-17

美股

@大叔观点时间:如何用1W美元构建自己的美股投资组合

香水百合AUD

2022-03-13

以后看

@谋定后动:【美股周记】2022年第10周——美联储加的是什么息

香水百合AUD

2022-03-12

学习

@Iverson:通胀怪兽来袭！一文带你看懂CPI

香水百合AUD

2022-03-12

学习了

@价值投资为王:中概股再遭血洗，聊聊我是如何应对暴跌的！

香水百合AUD

2022-02-27

机会来自危机

@老虎专刊:【老虎周刊】老虎社区一周十大精华文章

香水百合AUD

2022-02-26

look

俄乌开战你最受伤？五点建议保住钱袋子

香水百合AUD

2021-12-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@长牛笔记:元宇宙报告阅读有感

香水百合AUD

2021-12-05

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@谋定后动:【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】论期权卖家的修养（11月篇）

香水百合AUD

2021-12-05

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@问就是加仓up:中概股正在推倒重来

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535877875442784","repostId":"535688562308024","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":535688562308024,"gmtCreate":1771804227148,"gmtModify":1771804608049,"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556673506813374","authorIdStr":"3556673506813374"},"themes":[],"title":"【谋周记】不想天天盯盘，如何稳拿年化10%的“收租”收益？（2026年第08周 | 总第258期）","htmlText":"前段时间有一位会员朋友在群里问我：“谋老师，我不想天天看盘，也不想受那种动不动20-30% 的大起大落。我就是想找个地方把钱放着，稳稳地拿个年化10%的收益，这种好事有吗？” 这个需求代表了大多数“投资人”的心声：既想要股市的长线红利，又想要像收房租一样的现金流，还得心理压力小。 在美股市场，实现年化10%确实有路。但我们要先打破一个迷思：收益不是凭空产生的。今天我们就把 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEPQ\">$JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPYI\">$NEOS S&amp;P 500 High Income ETF(SPYI)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPIQ\">$GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF(GPIQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a> 拆开了、揉碎了比一比，看看如何构建你的“收租神器”。 一、 逻辑拆解：你的“租金”从哪来？ 我们要明白，在股市里拿钱，无非两种方式： 赚公司成长的钱： 股价从100块涨到120块，你赚的是Delta（资本增值）。 赚期权买家的钱： 你持有股票，同时卖出一张“看涨期权”给别人。别人给你一笔权利金，换取未来以固定价格买你股票的权利。这笔权利金，就是你的 Yield（现金流租金）。 传统的 QQQ 和 SPY 纯粹靠第一种；而我们今天要聊的 JEPQ、GPIQ、SPYI，则是用一部分上涨潜力，换取了当下的现金。而 SCH","listText":"前段时间有一位会员朋友在群里问我：“谋老师，我不想天天看盘，也不想受那种动不动20-30% 的大起大落。我就是想找个地方把钱放着，稳稳地拿个年化10%的收益，这种好事有吗？” 这个需求代表了大多数“投资人”的心声：既想要股市的长线红利，又想要像收房租一样的现金流，还得心理压力小。 在美股市场，实现年化10%确实有路。但我们要先打破一个迷思：收益不是凭空产生的。今天我们就把 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEPQ\">$JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPYI\">$NEOS S&amp;P 500 High Income ETF(SPYI)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPIQ\">$GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF(GPIQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a> 拆开了、揉碎了比一比，看看如何构建你的“收租神器”。 一、 逻辑拆解：你的“租金”从哪来？ 我们要明白，在股市里拿钱，无非两种方式： 赚公司成长的钱： 股价从100块涨到120块，你赚的是Delta（资本增值）。 赚期权买家的钱： 你持有股票，同时卖出一张“看涨期权”给别人。别人给你一笔权利金，换取未来以固定价格买你股票的权利。这笔权利金，就是你的 Yield（现金流租金）。 传统的 QQQ 和 SPY 纯粹靠第一种；而我们今天要聊的 JEPQ、GPIQ、SPYI，则是用一部分上涨潜力，换取了当下的现金。而 SCH","text":"前段时间有一位会员朋友在群里问我：“谋老师，我不想天天看盘，也不想受那种动不动20-30% 的大起大落。我就是想找个地方把钱放着，稳稳地拿个年化10%的收益，这种好事有吗？” 这个需求代表了大多数“投资人”的心声：既想要股市的长线红利，又想要像收房租一样的现金流，还得心理压力小。 在美股市场，实现年化10%确实有路。但我们要先打破一个迷思：收益不是凭空产生的。今天我们就把 $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ)$ 、 $NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF(SPYI)$ 、 $GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF(GPIQ)$ 、 $Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$ 拆开了、揉碎了比一比，看看如何构建你的“收租神器”。 一、 逻辑拆解：你的“租金”从哪来？ 我们要明白，在股市里拿钱，无非两种方式： 赚公司成长的钱： 股价从100块涨到120块，你赚的是Delta（资本增值）。 赚期权买家的钱： 你持有股票，同时卖出一张“看涨期权”给别人。别人给你一笔权利金，换取未来以固定价格买你股票的权利。这笔权利金，就是你的 Yield（现金流租金）。 传统的 QQQ 和 SPY 纯粹靠第一种；而我们今天要聊的 JEPQ、GPIQ、SPYI，则是用一部分上涨潜力，换取了当下的现金。而 SCH","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1612f01ac279a32e9ccf49a58b35ae","width":"1791","height":"807"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535688562308024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533979234088472,"gmtCreate":1771385109962,"gmtModify":1771385112215,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪里看到的？","listText":"哪里看到的？","text":"哪里看到的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533979234088472","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 09:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 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USD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612049231","content_text":"CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。减持苹果，增持伯克希尔在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。与此同时，作为防御性资产的伯克希尔B 获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。此外，段永平还增持了谷歌、拼多多，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头阿斯麦（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"MACW.SI":0.6,"CORD":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"CWVX":0.6,"CRWG":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"CRWU":0.6,"CRWD":1.87,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPL":1.91}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533971527865888,"gmtCreate":1771385096427,"gmtModify":1771385098423,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533971527865888","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 09:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$网易(NTES)$</a> 周五吃了大阴线，这种飞来横祸的飞刀放在以前我可能接一点，但在现在中概股整体风声鹤唳的背景下，还真不是很敢，得先看看事情严不严重。如果是网易跟 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$动视暴雪(ATVI)$</a> 分手、腾讯限制未成年人打游戏时间这种级别的事，那真的没啥大不了的，抄之；但这次：红头文件内容会伤及公司的收入根本，且在带宽成本、渠道成本等不变的情况下，高利润率的游戏业务会以“杠杆”的方式加倍影响整体的Margin。假如真的实施，会肉眼可见地影响估值。我自己的模型估计，对腾讯利润率的影响可能有中个位数，对网易利润率的影响可能高至中十位数。尤其是网易，诱导性太强，对渠道、头部大客户的依赖很高，每一项条款都正中下怀。我甚至怀疑红头文件的作者，是一位被网易游戏“残害”过的网瘾少年（后转型考公上岸）。对腾讯来说，第一时间加码回购至10亿（一般最多4亿），股价勉强托至275；如果没有回购，结合大股东的抛售，跌破260不在话下。那么，现在抄底的投资者要赌什么？1、赌超跌反弹。这纯粹就是情绪上的踩点，无你是用技术派，还是量化指标，这种抄底往往是极短期、目标空间相对较小的一种抄底，比如在265抄腾讯，280就可以拍拍屁股走人，但一般不会想着回到消息前的310。2、赌文件内容不会真正落地。这有点像在赌收购案失败，博高收益的小概率事件。虽说是意见稿，但是并没有通不过的先例。只是根据这次没有跟大公司沟通的情况来看，后续落地存在一定概率（稍高一些，但仍是小概率事件）的细则修改，但大方向依然还是行业规范。这就是一种真正的反转抄底，目标价可能至少","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$网易(NTES)$</a> 周五吃了大阴线，这种飞来横祸的飞刀放在以前我可能接一点，但在现在中概股整体风声鹤唳的背景下，还真不是很敢，得先看看事情严不严重。如果是网易跟 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分手、腾讯限制未成年人打游戏时间这种级别的事，那真的没啥大不了的，抄之；但这次：红头文件内容会伤及公司的收入根本，且在带宽成本、渠道成本等不变的情况下，高利润率的游戏业务会以“杠杆”的方式加倍影响整体的Margin。假如真的实施，会肉眼可见地影响估值。我自己的模型估计，对腾讯利润率的影响可能有中个位数，对网易利润率的影响可能高至中十位数。尤其是网易，诱导性太强，对渠道、头部大客户的依赖很高，每一项条款都正中下怀。我甚至怀疑红头文件的作者，是一位被网易游戏“残害”过的网瘾少年（后转型考公上岸）。对腾讯来说，第一时间加码回购至10亿（一般最多4亿），股价勉强托至275；如果没有回购，结合大股东的抛售，跌破260不在话下。那么，现在抄底的投资者要赌什么？1、赌超跌反弹。这纯粹就是情绪上的踩点，无你是用技术派，还是量化指标，这种抄底往往是极短期、目标空间相对较小的一种抄底，比如在265抄腾讯，280就可以拍拍屁股走人，但一般不会想着回到消息前的310。2、赌文件内容不会真正落地。这有点像在赌收购案失败，博高收益的小概率事件。虽说是意见稿，但是并没有通不过的先例。只是根据这次没有跟大公司沟通的情况来看，后续落地存在一定概率（稍高一些，但仍是小概率事件）的细则修改，但大方向依然还是行业规范。这就是一种真正的反转抄底，目标价可能至少","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8adb42c93367a21f88abbf805d37c78","width":"1452","height":"729"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d30b3b25bd8444de5ac78fbab82b557","width":"1405","height":"735"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b56407507ba498a8fb0a84e9a3f3ed9","width":"1470","height":"751"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256253139513392","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"vote":{"id":3021,"gmtBegin":1703568726979,"gmtEnd":1704259911648,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"你会选择抄底腾讯or网易吗？","choices":[{"id":10985,"sort":1,"name":"冷眼旁观","userSize":47,"voted":false},{"id":10986,"sort":2,"name":"正股大抄","userSize":25,"voted":false},{"id":10987,"sort":3,"name":"期权博弈","userSize":25,"voted":false},{"id":10988,"sort":4,"name":"只抄腾讯，不抄猪","userSize":53,"voted":false},{"id":10989,"sort":5,"name":"只抄网易，不抄鹅","userSize":27,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626247193,"gmtCreate":1674288429312,"gmtModify":1674288431038,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"半导体自由周期","listText":"半导体自由周期","text":"半导体自由周期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626247193","repostId":"626901437","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":626901437,"gmtCreate":1673604241130,"gmtModify":1673604289237,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"美股大跌，我却从阿斯麦身上赚了56%！","htmlText":"自去年10月份以来，美股表现最好的板块非半导体行业莫属了！ 这个结论看起来十分突兀，了解的人知道，半导体行业自2022年初就开始进入下行周期了，相关概念股那是大暴跌啊，比如英伟达一度从最高点下跌69%，可谓是相当惨烈。 业绩上，英伟达上一季的营收下滑了16.5%，预计Q4的下降幅度更大。 即使是地表最强的科技股台积电，刚刚发布的数据也不太妙，一来是去年四季度的收入环比下滑，终结了之前连续11个季度环比增长的记录，二来是今年一季度台积电的收入预计将同比下滑。 根据半导体行业的朋友介绍，说目前业内砍单严重，建议远离。 但看股价，无论是英伟达还是台积电，都已经明显见底，我持有的阿斯麦甚至已经涨到了652美元，较最低点涨了80%。 半导体的走势明显强于纳斯达克指数，所以，半导体已经开始走牛了。 截止昨日收盘，我持有的阿斯麦已经盈利56%了： 这个盈利水平，对于持有不到一年、没有使用任何杠杆来说已经相当不错了，叠加阿斯麦将于1月25日美股盘前发布财报，是时候聊聊要不要获利了结了。 先来说说我抄底阿斯麦的理由。 半导体这个行业，产业链比较长，分工很明确，阿斯麦属于半导体设备，做光刻机，能量产EUV的，目前只有阿斯麦，处于垄断地位。 下游的苹果、英伟达、台积电、AMD虽然也是好公司，甚至达到某种垄断地位，但相比阿斯麦，还是有竞争对手的存在，比如三星之于台积电、华为之于苹果，而阿斯麦没有对手。 所以，下注阿斯麦，就是下注整个半导体行业的未来，我抄底的价格是421美元，当时阿斯麦经过大幅下跌，市盈率估值来到30PE，回到历史合理估值范围。 如今，经过大幅上涨之后，阿斯麦的市盈率来到了43倍，略高于过去10年的估值水平： 从估值上看，阿斯麦继续提升则又让股价产生泡沫，那能否通过业绩增长来消化估值呢？ 三季报中，管理层对Q4的业绩指引是营收在61-66亿欧元之间，取中间值计算，则营收同比增速为2","listText":"自去年10月份以来，美股表现最好的板块非半导体行业莫属了！ 这个结论看起来十分突兀，了解的人知道，半导体行业自2022年初就开始进入下行周期了，相关概念股那是大暴跌啊，比如英伟达一度从最高点下跌69%，可谓是相当惨烈。 业绩上，英伟达上一季的营收下滑了16.5%，预计Q4的下降幅度更大。 即使是地表最强的科技股台积电，刚刚发布的数据也不太妙，一来是去年四季度的收入环比下滑，终结了之前连续11个季度环比增长的记录，二来是今年一季度台积电的收入预计将同比下滑。 根据半导体行业的朋友介绍，说目前业内砍单严重，建议远离。 但看股价，无论是英伟达还是台积电，都已经明显见底，我持有的阿斯麦甚至已经涨到了652美元，较最低点涨了80%。 半导体的走势明显强于纳斯达克指数，所以，半导体已经开始走牛了。 截止昨日收盘，我持有的阿斯麦已经盈利56%了： 这个盈利水平，对于持有不到一年、没有使用任何杠杆来说已经相当不错了，叠加阿斯麦将于1月25日美股盘前发布财报，是时候聊聊要不要获利了结了。 先来说说我抄底阿斯麦的理由。 半导体这个行业，产业链比较长，分工很明确，阿斯麦属于半导体设备，做光刻机，能量产EUV的，目前只有阿斯麦，处于垄断地位。 下游的苹果、英伟达、台积电、AMD虽然也是好公司，甚至达到某种垄断地位，但相比阿斯麦，还是有竞争对手的存在，比如三星之于台积电、华为之于苹果，而阿斯麦没有对手。 所以，下注阿斯麦，就是下注整个半导体行业的未来，我抄底的价格是421美元，当时阿斯麦经过大幅下跌，市盈率估值来到30PE，回到历史合理估值范围。 如今，经过大幅上涨之后，阿斯麦的市盈率来到了43倍，略高于过去10年的估值水平： 从估值上看，阿斯麦继续提升则又让股价产生泡沫，那能否通过业绩增长来消化估值呢？ 三季报中，管理层对Q4的业绩指引是营收在61-66亿欧元之间，取中间值计算，则营收同比增速为2","text":"自去年10月份以来，美股表现最好的板块非半导体行业莫属了！ 这个结论看起来十分突兀，了解的人知道，半导体行业自2022年初就开始进入下行周期了，相关概念股那是大暴跌啊，比如英伟达一度从最高点下跌69%，可谓是相当惨烈。 业绩上，英伟达上一季的营收下滑了16.5%，预计Q4的下降幅度更大。 即使是地表最强的科技股台积电，刚刚发布的数据也不太妙，一来是去年四季度的收入环比下滑，终结了之前连续11个季度环比增长的记录，二来是今年一季度台积电的收入预计将同比下滑。 根据半导体行业的朋友介绍，说目前业内砍单严重，建议远离。 但看股价，无论是英伟达还是台积电，都已经明显见底，我持有的阿斯麦甚至已经涨到了652美元，较最低点涨了80%。 半导体的走势明显强于纳斯达克指数，所以，半导体已经开始走牛了。 截止昨日收盘，我持有的阿斯麦已经盈利56%了： 这个盈利水平，对于持有不到一年、没有使用任何杠杆来说已经相当不错了，叠加阿斯麦将于1月25日美股盘前发布财报，是时候聊聊要不要获利了结了。 先来说说我抄底阿斯麦的理由。 半导体这个行业，产业链比较长，分工很明确，阿斯麦属于半导体设备，做光刻机，能量产EUV的，目前只有阿斯麦，处于垄断地位。 下游的苹果、英伟达、台积电、AMD虽然也是好公司，甚至达到某种垄断地位，但相比阿斯麦，还是有竞争对手的存在，比如三星之于台积电、华为之于苹果，而阿斯麦没有对手。 所以，下注阿斯麦，就是下注整个半导体行业的未来，我抄底的价格是421美元，当时阿斯麦经过大幅下跌，市盈率估值来到30PE，回到历史合理估值范围。 如今，经过大幅上涨之后，阿斯麦的市盈率来到了43倍，略高于过去10年的估值水平： 从估值上看，阿斯麦继续提升则又让股价产生泡沫，那能否通过业绩增长来消化估值呢？ 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同时，虽然现在腾讯上涨至370，看似博实是赚钱了，但不能因为赚钱了就说明投资思考和行为一定是正确的、可复制的。这就像腾讯从300跌至200过程中，持续加仓却持续亏钱，也不能证明投资思考和行为一定是错误的。 当前的总结，其实并不能完全代表真正200-300对腾讯的客观、理性的真实想法，这只能算是事后复盘总结。如果想了解博实在彼时彼刻真实的状态，可以翻看从腾讯300跌至200过程中博实撰写的文章。这些文章会放在本文最后的延伸阅读中。 博实真正的交易记录是这样的： 2022年7月18日，卖出茅台10%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价320。 9月5日，4.56卖出邮储银行7%仓位，303。9月7日买入腾讯均价303。 10月12日，卖出同仁堂国药4.5%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价249。 单看以上三笔交易，博实大概加仓了21.5%仓位的腾讯，因为茅台那笔仓位最大，最终的均价肯定是偏高的，应该在280-300左右。具体就不算了，反正均价肯定接近300了。 另外，博实之所以会卖出茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药，然后去买入腾讯，证明博实已经没有足够的现金去买腾讯了，只能通过卖出其他公司买入腾讯。所以，大概率博实之前是持有一定仓位的腾讯的。所以，均价实际上比之前计算的还是要高一些的。 为什么卖出其他仓位，买入腾讯？ 既然能持有茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药5%-10%的仓位，已经算比较大的，肯定是经过一定的研究并比较看好这些公司的预期收益的。 买入腾讯并卖出三家公司的原因，是在充分对比分析300以下的腾讯和茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药未来3-5年的发展，尤其是分析这几家公司未来3-5年产生的可自由分配的净利润规模以后，结合公司当前的市值，认为腾讯的预期收益会比这几家公司更高。 博实的价值判断准确么？","listText":"写作本文，并不是想证明自己有多厉害。因为在腾讯持续下跌过程中，自己也情绪有波动，且越下跌还是情绪上越是害怕的。 同时，虽然现在腾讯上涨至370，看似博实是赚钱了，但不能因为赚钱了就说明投资思考和行为一定是正确的、可复制的。这就像腾讯从300跌至200过程中，持续加仓却持续亏钱，也不能证明投资思考和行为一定是错误的。 当前的总结，其实并不能完全代表真正200-300对腾讯的客观、理性的真实想法，这只能算是事后复盘总结。如果想了解博实在彼时彼刻真实的状态，可以翻看从腾讯300跌至200过程中博实撰写的文章。这些文章会放在本文最后的延伸阅读中。 博实真正的交易记录是这样的： 2022年7月18日，卖出茅台10%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价320。 9月5日，4.56卖出邮储银行7%仓位，303。9月7日买入腾讯均价303。 10月12日，卖出同仁堂国药4.5%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价249。 单看以上三笔交易，博实大概加仓了21.5%仓位的腾讯，因为茅台那笔仓位最大，最终的均价肯定是偏高的，应该在280-300左右。具体就不算了，反正均价肯定接近300了。 另外，博实之所以会卖出茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药，然后去买入腾讯，证明博实已经没有足够的现金去买腾讯了，只能通过卖出其他公司买入腾讯。所以，大概率博实之前是持有一定仓位的腾讯的。所以，均价实际上比之前计算的还是要高一些的。 为什么卖出其他仓位，买入腾讯？ 既然能持有茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药5%-10%的仓位，已经算比较大的，肯定是经过一定的研究并比较看好这些公司的预期收益的。 买入腾讯并卖出三家公司的原因，是在充分对比分析300以下的腾讯和茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药未来3-5年的发展，尤其是分析这几家公司未来3-5年产生的可自由分配的净利润规模以后，结合公司当前的市值，认为腾讯的预期收益会比这几家公司更高。 博实的价值判断准确么？","text":"写作本文，并不是想证明自己有多厉害。因为在腾讯持续下跌过程中，自己也情绪有波动，且越下跌还是情绪上越是害怕的。 同时，虽然现在腾讯上涨至370，看似博实是赚钱了，但不能因为赚钱了就说明投资思考和行为一定是正确的、可复制的。这就像腾讯从300跌至200过程中，持续加仓却持续亏钱，也不能证明投资思考和行为一定是错误的。 当前的总结，其实并不能完全代表真正200-300对腾讯的客观、理性的真实想法，这只能算是事后复盘总结。如果想了解博实在彼时彼刻真实的状态，可以翻看从腾讯300跌至200过程中博实撰写的文章。这些文章会放在本文最后的延伸阅读中。 博实真正的交易记录是这样的： 2022年7月18日，卖出茅台10%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价320。 9月5日，4.56卖出邮储银行7%仓位，303。9月7日买入腾讯均价303。 10月12日，卖出同仁堂国药4.5%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价249。 单看以上三笔交易，博实大概加仓了21.5%仓位的腾讯，因为茅台那笔仓位最大，最终的均价肯定是偏高的，应该在280-300左右。具体就不算了，反正均价肯定接近300了。 另外，博实之所以会卖出茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药，然后去买入腾讯，证明博实已经没有足够的现金去买腾讯了，只能通过卖出其他公司买入腾讯。所以，大概率博实之前是持有一定仓位的腾讯的。所以，均价实际上比之前计算的还是要高一些的。 为什么卖出其他仓位，买入腾讯？ 既然能持有茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药5%-10%的仓位，已经算比较大的，肯定是经过一定的研究并比较看好这些公司的预期收益的。 买入腾讯并卖出三家公司的原因，是在充分对比分析300以下的腾讯和茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药未来3-5年的发展，尤其是分析这几家公司未来3-5年产生的可自由分配的净利润规模以后，结合公司当前的市值，认为腾讯的预期收益会比这几家公司更高。 博实的价值判断准确么？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9cecd3f5bd24af4a583dbe2d716337a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626836497","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628723660,"gmtCreate":1673503352650,"gmtModify":1673503354794,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628723660","repostId":"628467239","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628467239,"gmtCreate":1673425210721,"gmtModify":1673425238987,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯翻倍，走还是留？","htmlText":"港股这波反弹让人目瞪口呆，恒指一口气涨了49%，股王腾讯更是完成翻倍壮举！ 遥想2个月前，港股还是一片哀嚎，腾讯一度跌破200港币，段永平、唐朝等大V被粉丝骂的体无完肤，谁能想到，牛熊转换如此剧烈！ 当腾讯都从底部翻倍，一个现实的问题是：走还是留？ 从技术面来看，翻倍后的腾讯累计了大量的获利盘，抄底资金有足够的动力获利了结，而当前接近380港币的价格，也恰好来到了压力位： 从基本面来看，按照2021年的净利润计算，腾讯目前的市盈率仅13.6倍，对于一家社交巨头来说并不贵。 但是，如何给腾讯估值争议颇大。 拿市盈率为例，计算方法是市值/净利润，腾讯2021年的净利润中，包含大量的其他收益，如处置投资公司收益，也有股权价值变动损益，这两类利润可持续性较差，且不稳定。 因此，如果和经营利润合并计算市盈率，腾讯估值被人为的“低估”。而如果拿“扣非”净利润计算，腾讯当前的静态市盈率高达39倍： 当然，其他收益中有的项目也能带来真金白银流入，完全不给估值是不合理的，但给多少的市盈率，则一千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特。 因此，市场也常用市销率来评估腾讯估值的高低。 2019年，腾讯的市销率均值在7.5倍，目前为5.6倍： 2018年后，腾讯估值较高的时候也不过10倍市销率。 展望未来，腾讯能否重回历史均值，与营收增速强相关，业绩增长越快，估值倍数越高，反之同理。 目前，彭博分析师对腾讯2023年的营收预测为6156亿，同比增长11%，低于近年来20%左右的增速： 分析师的预测未必能反应真实的经营结果，毕竟没有人预测到中国会在11月放开疫情管控，更没有人能想到中国仅用一个多月就渡过疫情感染高峰。 从腾讯的业务来看，游戏业务刚刚拿到重磅版号，未来的版号下发有望常态化；广告业务中，腾讯视频号开始发力，券商预计2024年能带来240亿的增量广告收入；金融及企业业务受益于疫情放开，高增长有望恢复。","listText":"港股这波反弹让人目瞪口呆，恒指一口气涨了49%，股王腾讯更是完成翻倍壮举！ 遥想2个月前，港股还是一片哀嚎，腾讯一度跌破200港币，段永平、唐朝等大V被粉丝骂的体无完肤，谁能想到，牛熊转换如此剧烈！ 当腾讯都从底部翻倍，一个现实的问题是：走还是留？ 从技术面来看，翻倍后的腾讯累计了大量的获利盘，抄底资金有足够的动力获利了结，而当前接近380港币的价格，也恰好来到了压力位： 从基本面来看，按照2021年的净利润计算，腾讯目前的市盈率仅13.6倍，对于一家社交巨头来说并不贵。 但是，如何给腾讯估值争议颇大。 拿市盈率为例，计算方法是市值/净利润，腾讯2021年的净利润中，包含大量的其他收益，如处置投资公司收益，也有股权价值变动损益，这两类利润可持续性较差，且不稳定。 因此，如果和经营利润合并计算市盈率，腾讯估值被人为的“低估”。而如果拿“扣非”净利润计算，腾讯当前的静态市盈率高达39倍： 当然，其他收益中有的项目也能带来真金白银流入，完全不给估值是不合理的，但给多少的市盈率，则一千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特。 因此，市场也常用市销率来评估腾讯估值的高低。 2019年，腾讯的市销率均值在7.5倍，目前为5.6倍： 2018年后，腾讯估值较高的时候也不过10倍市销率。 展望未来，腾讯能否重回历史均值，与营收增速强相关，业绩增长越快，估值倍数越高，反之同理。 目前，彭博分析师对腾讯2023年的营收预测为6156亿，同比增长11%，低于近年来20%左右的增速： 分析师的预测未必能反应真实的经营结果，毕竟没有人预测到中国会在11月放开疫情管控，更没有人能想到中国仅用一个多月就渡过疫情感染高峰。 从腾讯的业务来看，游戏业务刚刚拿到重磅版号，未来的版号下发有望常态化；广告业务中，腾讯视频号开始发力，券商预计2024年能带来240亿的增量广告收入；金融及企业业务受益于疫情放开，高增长有望恢复。","text":"港股这波反弹让人目瞪口呆，恒指一口气涨了49%，股王腾讯更是完成翻倍壮举！ 遥想2个月前，港股还是一片哀嚎，腾讯一度跌破200港币，段永平、唐朝等大V被粉丝骂的体无完肤，谁能想到，牛熊转换如此剧烈！ 当腾讯都从底部翻倍，一个现实的问题是：走还是留？ 从技术面来看，翻倍后的腾讯累计了大量的获利盘，抄底资金有足够的动力获利了结，而当前接近380港币的价格，也恰好来到了压力位： 从基本面来看，按照2021年的净利润计算，腾讯目前的市盈率仅13.6倍，对于一家社交巨头来说并不贵。 但是，如何给腾讯估值争议颇大。 拿市盈率为例，计算方法是市值/净利润，腾讯2021年的净利润中，包含大量的其他收益，如处置投资公司收益，也有股权价值变动损益，这两类利润可持续性较差，且不稳定。 因此，如果和经营利润合并计算市盈率，腾讯估值被人为的“低估”。而如果拿“扣非”净利润计算，腾讯当前的静态市盈率高达39倍： 当然，其他收益中有的项目也能带来真金白银流入，完全不给估值是不合理的，但给多少的市盈率，则一千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特。 因此，市场也常用市销率来评估腾讯估值的高低。 2019年，腾讯的市销率均值在7.5倍，目前为5.6倍： 2018年后，腾讯估值较高的时候也不过10倍市销率。 展望未来，腾讯能否重回历史均值，与营收增速强相关，业绩增长越快，估值倍数越高，反之同理。 目前，彭博分析师对腾讯2023年的营收预测为6156亿，同比增长11%，低于近年来20%左右的增速： 分析师的预测未必能反应真实的经营结果，毕竟没有人预测到中国会在11月放开疫情管控，更没有人能想到中国仅用一个多月就渡过疫情感染高峰。 从腾讯的业务来看，游戏业务刚刚拿到重磅版号，未来的版号下发有望常态化；广告业务中，腾讯视频号开始发力，券商预计2024年能带来240亿的增量广告收入；金融及企业业务受益于疫情放开，高增长有望恢复。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa72e6ad214b39f7049b100c536b7c4","width":"632","height":"294"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19616647575cacfe672f048eae1902c4","width":"632","height":"312"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12cc6c4d9c0116ee9f15db37a8f0264a","width":"632","height":"288"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628467239","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683893689,"gmtCreate":1656117546242,"gmtModify":1704864138988,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怎么参与美股 定投？","listText":"怎么参与美股 定投？","text":"怎么参与美股 定投？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683893689","repostId":"683386295","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":683386295,"gmtCreate":1656000847335,"gmtModify":1704863853611,"author":{"id":"3548388348794551","authorId":"3548388348794551","name":"问就是加仓up","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e98ddf789d46c5627f944fc581c0fe9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548388348794551","authorIdStr":"3548388348794551"},"themes":[],"title":"剧烈波动之下，单腿期权的优势正在消失","htmlText":"相信有很多朋友沉迷于特斯拉的期权，尤其是单腿买方玩家，但是最近一段时间开始，玩特斯拉期权的盈亏比开始不断下降。很多人最初玩特斯拉期权，就是因为特斯拉单价高，同时末日期权会有非常高的潜在盈亏比，但是随着最近一个多月股票的大幅波动，特斯拉期权开始变得越来越贵，IV在随着波动持续上升，目前的市场情况之下，买call 或者买put可以赚钱，但是盈亏比例正在越来越低。本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考其实这个现象对于很多股票都适用，个人主要玩的特斯拉比较多，所以就拿特斯拉举例。为啥会出现这样的情况，其实很简单。期权的价格，可以很好的反映市场的预期，而市场的预期对于期权的价格也会产生非常大的影响，比如财报季时，很多股票的期权在出财报之前，期权IV会暴涨，期权价格可能会比平时贵一两倍甚至更多。期权价格的暴涨，往往反映了期权买方的强烈需求，通常意味着即将有大事发生，大量资金开始选择方向。目前的市场正处于这样的状态之下，资金的分歧正在不断加大，有的人在押注通货膨胀不能控制，美国经济衰退，于是大量买入put，有的资金在押注美股触底反弹，开始买call抄底。再加上最近美股的波动剧烈，暴涨之后突然就会暴跌，所以大大提升了投资者的预期，大量资金预期会有大波动发生，比如说议息会议，比如说豹哥讲话，再比如说非农数据，比如说cpi数据，比如说原油库存，现在市场的神经非常敏感，因为每一个细节的信息都有可能被资金无限放大， 所以每个数据的关注度都在不断提升。关注的人越多，参与者越多，预期不断提升，买方力量大于卖方力量，期权价格自然而然的贵了。最近最好克制一下参与期权的参与，除非你有非常高的把握，否则不如玩玩正股，尤其是特斯拉这种参与人数众多的，最近的一些经验来看，如果周五波动超级大，那么第二周的期权会非常贵，然后在第二周连续洗三天，把期权杀个干净，然后在周四或者周五来个","listText":"相信有很多朋友沉迷于特斯拉的期权，尤其是单腿买方玩家，但是最近一段时间开始，玩特斯拉期权的盈亏比开始不断下降。很多人最初玩特斯拉期权，就是因为特斯拉单价高，同时末日期权会有非常高的潜在盈亏比，但是随着最近一个多月股票的大幅波动，特斯拉期权开始变得越来越贵，IV在随着波动持续上升，目前的市场情况之下，买call 或者买put可以赚钱，但是盈亏比例正在越来越低。本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考其实这个现象对于很多股票都适用，个人主要玩的特斯拉比较多，所以就拿特斯拉举例。为啥会出现这样的情况，其实很简单。期权的价格，可以很好的反映市场的预期，而市场的预期对于期权的价格也会产生非常大的影响，比如财报季时，很多股票的期权在出财报之前，期权IV会暴涨，期权价格可能会比平时贵一两倍甚至更多。期权价格的暴涨，往往反映了期权买方的强烈需求，通常意味着即将有大事发生，大量资金开始选择方向。目前的市场正处于这样的状态之下，资金的分歧正在不断加大，有的人在押注通货膨胀不能控制，美国经济衰退，于是大量买入put，有的资金在押注美股触底反弹，开始买call抄底。再加上最近美股的波动剧烈，暴涨之后突然就会暴跌，所以大大提升了投资者的预期，大量资金预期会有大波动发生，比如说议息会议，比如说豹哥讲话，再比如说非农数据，比如说cpi数据，比如说原油库存，现在市场的神经非常敏感，因为每一个细节的信息都有可能被资金无限放大， 所以每个数据的关注度都在不断提升。关注的人越多，参与者越多，预期不断提升，买方力量大于卖方力量，期权价格自然而然的贵了。最近最好克制一下参与期权的参与，除非你有非常高的把握，否则不如玩玩正股，尤其是特斯拉这种参与人数众多的，最近的一些经验来看，如果周五波动超级大，那么第二周的期权会非常贵，然后在第二周连续洗三天，把期权杀个干净，然后在周四或者周五来个","text":"相信有很多朋友沉迷于特斯拉的期权，尤其是单腿买方玩家，但是最近一段时间开始，玩特斯拉期权的盈亏比开始不断下降。很多人最初玩特斯拉期权，就是因为特斯拉单价高，同时末日期权会有非常高的潜在盈亏比，但是随着最近一个多月股票的大幅波动，特斯拉期权开始变得越来越贵，IV在随着波动持续上升，目前的市场情况之下，买call 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就进KTV，中概股在政策利好中迎来的绝地大反击，腾讯昨日大涨23%，我是没见过，当日天天跌10%我也没见过，我真太年轻了。 美股这边，鲍师傅没有给我们带来任何意外的惊吓，真是股民的好朋友。美联储会议是15-16日两天，决议是17日凌晨发布，其实从15日的大盘表现，相信聪明钱在会议开始就有风声。 加息25bp，年内7次，最早5月考虑缩表。 鲍师傅的声明中，再次强调当前经济非常强劲、其实从之前巨头们的财报也看到确实没问题。 但是他再问答环节说道：“通胀回到我们的价格稳定目标，可能需要比先前预期更长的时间。FOMC参与者的通胀预测中值今年为4.3%，明年降至2.7%，2024年为2.3%；这一轨迹明显高于12月的预测，参与者仍认为风险偏向上行。” 由于地缘战争的影响让通胀回归的步骤慢下来，我个人认为随着战争结束，CPI值可能在4月公布的3月数据中见顶，下半年有明显的回落，但是回落到长期目标至少要1年。在5月QT之前，4月美股会有一个不错的表现，动能还会回到成长股这边，但随着QT的预期，有业绩的股票会更具备安全边际。 本周五是四巫日，大盘两天大反弹，我看到昨晚SPY的PUT期权有明显的异动增仓，大概率是对冲的，认为在大涨之后会有回调。我也认为在本周最后两个交易日需要有一个合适的回踩，以确认后续仍然走上行趋势。如果你这两天踩准了点已经赚了不少又不想获利平仓，那么用期权做一些对冲也是合适的，如果扛得住四巫日，我还觉得未来一个月的应该市场还不错。当然如果市场直接在本周完成了冲高，后面还会回落。美股等周末我们再复盘，先说中概股和港股。 昨天在众多的消息中有一条，不知道大家注意到了没有？中国监管部门打击做空机构，侧面证实之前的暴跌有做空机构在里面兴风作浪。那么这两天的巨幅反弹，更多也是来自逼空的成分。这种暴涨暴跌肯定是不健康不可持续的，那么也会有一定反复","listText":"这几天的股市非常抓马，刚出ICU 就进KTV，中概股在政策利好中迎来的绝地大反击，腾讯昨日大涨23%，我是没见过，当日天天跌10%我也没见过，我真太年轻了。 美股这边，鲍师傅没有给我们带来任何意外的惊吓，真是股民的好朋友。美联储会议是15-16日两天，决议是17日凌晨发布，其实从15日的大盘表现，相信聪明钱在会议开始就有风声。 加息25bp，年内7次，最早5月考虑缩表。 鲍师傅的声明中，再次强调当前经济非常强劲、其实从之前巨头们的财报也看到确实没问题。 但是他再问答环节说道：“通胀回到我们的价格稳定目标，可能需要比先前预期更长的时间。FOMC参与者的通胀预测中值今年为4.3%，明年降至2.7%，2024年为2.3%；这一轨迹明显高于12月的预测，参与者仍认为风险偏向上行。” 由于地缘战争的影响让通胀回归的步骤慢下来，我个人认为随着战争结束，CPI值可能在4月公布的3月数据中见顶，下半年有明显的回落，但是回落到长期目标至少要1年。在5月QT之前，4月美股会有一个不错的表现，动能还会回到成长股这边，但随着QT的预期，有业绩的股票会更具备安全边际。 本周五是四巫日，大盘两天大反弹，我看到昨晚SPY的PUT期权有明显的异动增仓，大概率是对冲的，认为在大涨之后会有回调。我也认为在本周最后两个交易日需要有一个合适的回踩，以确认后续仍然走上行趋势。如果你这两天踩准了点已经赚了不少又不想获利平仓，那么用期权做一些对冲也是合适的，如果扛得住四巫日，我还觉得未来一个月的应该市场还不错。当然如果市场直接在本周完成了冲高，后面还会回落。美股等周末我们再复盘，先说中概股和港股。 昨天在众多的消息中有一条，不知道大家注意到了没有？中国监管部门打击做空机构，侧面证实之前的暴跌有做空机构在里面兴风作浪。那么这两天的巨幅反弹，更多也是来自逼空的成分。这种暴涨暴跌肯定是不健康不可持续的，那么也会有一定反复","text":"这几天的股市非常抓马，刚出ICU 就进KTV，中概股在政策利好中迎来的绝地大反击，腾讯昨日大涨23%，我是没见过，当日天天跌10%我也没见过，我真太年轻了。 美股这边，鲍师傅没有给我们带来任何意外的惊吓，真是股民的好朋友。美联储会议是15-16日两天，决议是17日凌晨发布，其实从15日的大盘表现，相信聪明钱在会议开始就有风声。 加息25bp，年内7次，最早5月考虑缩表。 鲍师傅的声明中，再次强调当前经济非常强劲、其实从之前巨头们的财报也看到确实没问题。 但是他再问答环节说道：“通胀回到我们的价格稳定目标，可能需要比先前预期更长的时间。FOMC参与者的通胀预测中值今年为4.3%，明年降至2.7%，2024年为2.3%；这一轨迹明显高于12月的预测，参与者仍认为风险偏向上行。” 由于地缘战争的影响让通胀回归的步骤慢下来，我个人认为随着战争结束，CPI值可能在4月公布的3月数据中见顶，下半年有明显的回落，但是回落到长期目标至少要1年。在5月QT之前，4月美股会有一个不错的表现，动能还会回到成长股这边，但随着QT的预期，有业绩的股票会更具备安全边际。 本周五是四巫日，大盘两天大反弹，我看到昨晚SPY的PUT期权有明显的异动增仓，大概率是对冲的，认为在大涨之后会有回调。我也认为在本周最后两个交易日需要有一个合适的回踩，以确认后续仍然走上行趋势。如果你这两天踩准了点已经赚了不少又不想获利平仓，那么用期权做一些对冲也是合适的，如果扛得住四巫日，我还觉得未来一个月的应该市场还不错。当然如果市场直接在本周完成了冲高，后面还会回落。美股等周末我们再复盘，先说中概股和港股。 昨天在众多的消息中有一条，不知道大家注意到了没有？中国监管部门打击做空机构，侧面证实之前的暴跌有做空机构在里面兴风作浪。那么这两天的巨幅反弹，更多也是来自逼空的成分。这种暴涨暴跌肯定是不健康不可持续的，那么也会有一定反复","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f831f7e859fa44e9bb4cfc3a2c1d03","width":"2128","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a91e09aff332503fd59d74f7cbc6fdad","width":"1170","height":"2532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe1d0a7307f531971bb812ec30350c2","width":"2198","height":"1342"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634211444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634248716,"gmtCreate":1647526836016,"gmtModify":1647526836016,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股","listText":"美股","text":"美股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634248716","repostId":"634673573","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":634673573,"gmtCreate":1647495511526,"gmtModify":1704733240963,"author":{"id":"3537499478386870","authorId":"3537499478386870","name":"大叔观点时间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea86f242be3b8d003e109794195153c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3537499478386870","authorIdStr":"3537499478386870"},"themes":[],"title":"如何用1W美元构建自己的美股投资组合","htmlText":"如何搭建自己的投资组合，这是很多人都在考虑的问题，我们就以10,000刀为例，来说说我们的美股投资组合应用。我们比较善于利用期权进行套利，期权是主要的操作工具。而投资对象主要是美股：一方面是我们常居美国，对一些股票的基本情况有较为直观的了解；另一方面是投资的几只美股是我们长期观察的。当然，还有一个前提是，我们是看好美国的整体经济，在这一点上，我还是认可巴老的说法，即：买股票就是要买国运。而至于为什要构建组合，这就是个老生常谈的问题，我们也常常听到“不要把鸡蛋放到一个篮子里”这样分散风险的建议，至于如何分散风险，何时开始分散风险，谈及者较少。 对此，我更喜欢作者迈克尔·庞皮恩在《财富管理的行为金融》的说法，他认为：当人们持有单一票或集中持有某些股票时，情绪通常很高涨。如果是这种情况，很难在短期内让人们将手中持有的单一股票调整得多元化。原因也很简单：比如，我很了解这家公司，所以我觉得能放心持有它的股票；我觉得得卖掉股票是不忠诚的行为；如果我卖掉手中任何股票，别人我的同行会看不起我…… 这些都是很正常的心理行为，那么规避的方法之一就是提前做好规划，做好顶层设计，以股票投资为例，假如我们针对这1万刀，进行分配，那么我们的分配方式如下：4K-5K刀主要购入标普500 ETF、即SPY；而剩下的5K-6K刀主要购入三类个股。原因如下：01我们选择SPY作为压仓石，是因为其基本上可以代表美国整体经济的行业和公司的股票，而且SPY是基于标普500指数而来的ETF，其中信息技术占29%，比例较高；但是其他行业分布也比较均衡，消费、医疗保健、工业都在10%左右，这样的配置组合会受周期性的影响更小，指数整体的走势也相对平稳。我们买入SPY，就等于买了美股中最好、最稳健的500家公司的股票，和道琼斯指数相比，样本数更大，能够准确地反应美国股市的走势，风险非常分散。风险为啥分散呢？因为其中的高增长高","listText":"如何搭建自己的投资组合，这是很多人都在考虑的问题，我们就以10,000刀为例，来说说我们的美股投资组合应用。我们比较善于利用期权进行套利，期权是主要的操作工具。而投资对象主要是美股：一方面是我们常居美国，对一些股票的基本情况有较为直观的了解；另一方面是投资的几只美股是我们长期观察的。当然，还有一个前提是，我们是看好美国的整体经济，在这一点上，我还是认可巴老的说法，即：买股票就是要买国运。而至于为什要构建组合，这就是个老生常谈的问题，我们也常常听到“不要把鸡蛋放到一个篮子里”这样分散风险的建议，至于如何分散风险，何时开始分散风险，谈及者较少。 对此，我更喜欢作者迈克尔·庞皮恩在《财富管理的行为金融》的说法，他认为：当人们持有单一票或集中持有某些股票时，情绪通常很高涨。如果是这种情况，很难在短期内让人们将手中持有的单一股票调整得多元化。原因也很简单：比如，我很了解这家公司，所以我觉得能放心持有它的股票；我觉得得卖掉股票是不忠诚的行为；如果我卖掉手中任何股票，别人我的同行会看不起我…… 这些都是很正常的心理行为，那么规避的方法之一就是提前做好规划，做好顶层设计，以股票投资为例，假如我们针对这1万刀，进行分配，那么我们的分配方式如下：4K-5K刀主要购入标普500 ETF、即SPY；而剩下的5K-6K刀主要购入三类个股。原因如下：01我们选择SPY作为压仓石，是因为其基本上可以代表美国整体经济的行业和公司的股票，而且SPY是基于标普500指数而来的ETF，其中信息技术占29%，比例较高；但是其他行业分布也比较均衡，消费、医疗保健、工业都在10%左右，这样的配置组合会受周期性的影响更小，指数整体的走势也相对平稳。我们买入SPY，就等于买了美股中最好、最稳健的500家公司的股票，和道琼斯指数相比，样本数更大，能够准确地反应美国股市的走势，风险非常分散。风险为啥分散呢？因为其中的高增长高","text":"如何搭建自己的投资组合，这是很多人都在考虑的问题，我们就以10,000刀为例，来说说我们的美股投资组合应用。我们比较善于利用期权进行套利，期权是主要的操作工具。而投资对象主要是美股：一方面是我们常居美国，对一些股票的基本情况有较为直观的了解；另一方面是投资的几只美股是我们长期观察的。当然，还有一个前提是，我们是看好美国的整体经济，在这一点上，我还是认可巴老的说法，即：买股票就是要买国运。而至于为什要构建组合，这就是个老生常谈的问题，我们也常常听到“不要把鸡蛋放到一个篮子里”这样分散风险的建议，至于如何分散风险，何时开始分散风险，谈及者较少。 对此，我更喜欢作者迈克尔·庞皮恩在《财富管理的行为金融》的说法，他认为：当人们持有单一票或集中持有某些股票时，情绪通常很高涨。如果是这种情况，很难在短期内让人们将手中持有的单一股票调整得多元化。原因也很简单：比如，我很了解这家公司，所以我觉得能放心持有它的股票；我觉得得卖掉股票是不忠诚的行为；如果我卖掉手中任何股票，别人我的同行会看不起我…… 这些都是很正常的心理行为，那么规避的方法之一就是提前做好规划，做好顶层设计，以股票投资为例，假如我们针对这1万刀，进行分配，那么我们的分配方式如下：4K-5K刀主要购入标普500 ETF、即SPY；而剩下的5K-6K刀主要购入三类个股。原因如下：01我们选择SPY作为压仓石，是因为其基本上可以代表美国整体经济的行业和公司的股票，而且SPY是基于标普500指数而来的ETF，其中信息技术占29%，比例较高；但是其他行业分布也比较均衡，消费、医疗保健、工业都在10%左右，这样的配置组合会受周期性的影响更小，指数整体的走势也相对平稳。我们买入SPY，就等于买了美股中最好、最稳健的500家公司的股票，和道琼斯指数相比，样本数更大，能够准确地反应美国股市的走势，风险非常分散。风险为啥分散呢？因为其中的高增长高","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e0940779c6234cab7d1b263d2ab4d34","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634673573","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635493459,"gmtCreate":1647178335458,"gmtModify":1647178335458,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"以后看","listText":"以后看","text":"以后看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635493459","repostId":"635556633","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":635556633,"gmtCreate":1647135238606,"gmtModify":1744960797561,"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556673506813374","authorIdStr":"3556673506813374"},"themes":[],"title":"【美股周记】2022年第10周——美联储加的是什么息","htmlText":"俄乌战争已经进行了两个星期，局势似乎朝着长期化和扩大化的趋势发展。据路透社报道，俄军在哈尔科夫久攻不下，已经改为围困该城，将主力部队调往基辅方向。乌克兰的解冻季节已经开始了，坦克及各种车辆很容易陷入泥泞中。对于防守方来说，这或许是个好消息，因为他们只需要守住干燥的大路就可以了，而不必担心攻击者从开阔地带袭来；对于进攻者而言，这是一场和时间的赛跑，这样糟糕的道路状况会一直持续到6月份。到截稿时有消息称，两军在基辅西北部发生激战，应该是俄军开始收缩基辅的包围圈了。未来7-10天将是决定这场战争走向的关键。战争的持续对美股投资者当然不是什么好事，不像经济活动，战争有巨大的不确定性，你不知道第二天起来翻开手机会看到什么样的坏消息。那边厢，美国星期四公布的CPI通胀指数再次爆表，达到了7.9%，创造了美国40年来的新高。高通胀会刺激美联储采取更激进的货币政策，在这样预期下，星期五的股市大跌收场。美联储加的到底是什么息？星期三美联储将召开今年的第一次议息会议，市场原先普遍预测将加息25个基点。但是近期俄乌战争对于能源供应的巨大影响，以及星期四公布的CPI数据又让市场不是那么确定了。即使加息25个基点，鲍威尔对于接下来美联储的货币政策如何论述也将左右市场的走势。总听到说加息、加息，到底美联储加的是什么息呢？在美股投资市场里，利率是最大的宏观影响因素，没有之一。利率又分为长期利率和短期利率，短期利率指的是三个月美债收益率，长期利率指的是10年期的美国国债收益率，这都是约定俗成的。美联储要加那个的息是美国联邦基准利率，基准利率和短期利率不是一码事，但是两者是高度相关，同涨同跌的。短期利率决定了银行的最优贷款利率（Prime Rate），它和我们的日常生活是息息相关的，包括房贷利率、信用卡利率、银行定息存款利率等等都由短期利率决定的，短期利率同时也影响企业短中期借贷的成本。而长期利率并不是由美","listText":"俄乌战争已经进行了两个星期，局势似乎朝着长期化和扩大化的趋势发展。据路透社报道，俄军在哈尔科夫久攻不下，已经改为围困该城，将主力部队调往基辅方向。乌克兰的解冻季节已经开始了，坦克及各种车辆很容易陷入泥泞中。对于防守方来说，这或许是个好消息，因为他们只需要守住干燥的大路就可以了，而不必担心攻击者从开阔地带袭来；对于进攻者而言，这是一场和时间的赛跑，这样糟糕的道路状况会一直持续到6月份。到截稿时有消息称，两军在基辅西北部发生激战，应该是俄军开始收缩基辅的包围圈了。未来7-10天将是决定这场战争走向的关键。战争的持续对美股投资者当然不是什么好事，不像经济活动，战争有巨大的不确定性，你不知道第二天起来翻开手机会看到什么样的坏消息。那边厢，美国星期四公布的CPI通胀指数再次爆表，达到了7.9%，创造了美国40年来的新高。高通胀会刺激美联储采取更激进的货币政策，在这样预期下，星期五的股市大跌收场。美联储加的到底是什么息？星期三美联储将召开今年的第一次议息会议，市场原先普遍预测将加息25个基点。但是近期俄乌战争对于能源供应的巨大影响，以及星期四公布的CPI数据又让市场不是那么确定了。即使加息25个基点，鲍威尔对于接下来美联储的货币政策如何论述也将左右市场的走势。总听到说加息、加息，到底美联储加的是什么息呢？在美股投资市场里，利率是最大的宏观影响因素，没有之一。利率又分为长期利率和短期利率，短期利率指的是三个月美债收益率，长期利率指的是10年期的美国国债收益率，这都是约定俗成的。美联储要加那个的息是美国联邦基准利率，基准利率和短期利率不是一码事，但是两者是高度相关，同涨同跌的。短期利率决定了银行的最优贷款利率（Prime Rate），它和我们的日常生活是息息相关的，包括房贷利率、信用卡利率、银行定息存款利率等等都由短期利率决定的，短期利率同时也影响企业短中期借贷的成本。而长期利率并不是由美","text":"俄乌战争已经进行了两个星期，局势似乎朝着长期化和扩大化的趋势发展。据路透社报道，俄军在哈尔科夫久攻不下，已经改为围困该城，将主力部队调往基辅方向。乌克兰的解冻季节已经开始了，坦克及各种车辆很容易陷入泥泞中。对于防守方来说，这或许是个好消息，因为他们只需要守住干燥的大路就可以了，而不必担心攻击者从开阔地带袭来；对于进攻者而言，这是一场和时间的赛跑，这样糟糕的道路状况会一直持续到6月份。到截稿时有消息称，两军在基辅西北部发生激战，应该是俄军开始收缩基辅的包围圈了。未来7-10天将是决定这场战争走向的关键。战争的持续对美股投资者当然不是什么好事，不像经济活动，战争有巨大的不确定性，你不知道第二天起来翻开手机会看到什么样的坏消息。那边厢，美国星期四公布的CPI通胀指数再次爆表，达到了7.9%，创造了美国40年来的新高。高通胀会刺激美联储采取更激进的货币政策，在这样预期下，星期五的股市大跌收场。美联储加的到底是什么息？星期三美联储将召开今年的第一次议息会议，市场原先普遍预测将加息25个基点。但是近期俄乌战争对于能源供应的巨大影响，以及星期四公布的CPI数据又让市场不是那么确定了。即使加息25个基点，鲍威尔对于接下来美联储的货币政策如何论述也将左右市场的走势。总听到说加息、加息，到底美联储加的是什么息呢？在美股投资市场里，利率是最大的宏观影响因素，没有之一。利率又分为长期利率和短期利率，短期利率指的是三个月美债收益率，长期利率指的是10年期的美国国债收益率，这都是约定俗成的。美联储要加那个的息是美国联邦基准利率，基准利率和短期利率不是一码事，但是两者是高度相关，同涨同跌的。短期利率决定了银行的最优贷款利率（Prime Rate），它和我们的日常生活是息息相关的，包括房贷利率、信用卡利率、银行定息存款利率等等都由短期利率决定的，短期利率同时也影响企业短中期借贷的成本。而长期利率并不是由美","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc6cea805d9f548b95b75a8799fd0c6","width":"1234","height":"923"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635556633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635588274,"gmtCreate":1647082377245,"gmtModify":1647082377245,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习","listText":"学习","text":"学习","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635588274","repostId":"635978992","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":635978992,"gmtCreate":1646816805687,"gmtModify":1646834294775,"author":{"id":"3455059019369891","authorId":"3455059019369891","name":"Iverson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fa68ce61d88742ab3622a5f7f8d6ff9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455059019369891","authorIdStr":"3455059019369891"},"themes":[],"title":"通胀怪兽来袭！一文带你看懂CPI","htmlText":"消费者价格指数（CPI）是由美国劳工统计局（BLS）统计并公布，衡量消费者为一篮子消费品和服务所支付价格的指标，年度或月度增长率代表通胀。因此CPI是衡量居民购买力和通货膨胀的重要指标。 通胀既不能太高也不太低，温和的通胀（2%-3%）可以刺激一个国家的经济增长；而如果通胀长期在5%以上，就可以称为高通胀，甚至有可能发展为恶性通胀。 美国CPI同比 恶性通胀会造成物价飙升，货币大幅贬值、社会动荡等非常严重的后果，因此各国央行货币政策的首要目标都是控制通胀，其次才是经济增长和充分就业。 CPI包含食品、能源、 商品和服务四大项。 其中，食品包括家庭食品（谷物、肉类、家禽、水果、蔬菜、饮料等）和在外饮食（员工、学校）；能源包括能源商品（汽油、燃油）和能源服务（电力、天然气）； 剔除食品和能源后，商品和服务两项构成核心CPI，主要包括住房、家居、租赁、医疗保健、服装、娱乐等细分项目。 核心CPI被认为是衡量通货膨胀的最佳指标，因为食品和能源价格有时会受到一些异常因素的影响而产生大幅波动，并模糊消费价格的真实变动趋势。 由于CPI细分项目权重都尽不相同，对CPI影响力度自然不同。从最新CPI各分项权重构成来看，权重占比最大的是服务，达到57.58%；其次是商品，权重为21.70%；食品、能源所占权重分别为13.37%和7.35%。 值得注意的是，CPI细分项目和项目权重并非恒定不变，美国劳工部会根据消费者支出模式和偏好的改变每两年对项目权重进行一次调整。最近一次调整时间就是今年2月，除了对CPI权重进行了新的调整之外，还引入更新季节性因素。 与调整前相比，价格高企的能源、食品和服务中的其他项权重被调低，价格稳定的二手车、新车、家庭食品权重有所上调，核心CPI的权重增加。美国这次调整有压低总体CPI的嫌疑。 2020年以来，美国非常规的量化宽松政策导致CPI增速一路攀升，2022年1","listText":"消费者价格指数（CPI）是由美国劳工统计局（BLS）统计并公布，衡量消费者为一篮子消费品和服务所支付价格的指标，年度或月度增长率代表通胀。因此CPI是衡量居民购买力和通货膨胀的重要指标。 通胀既不能太高也不太低，温和的通胀（2%-3%）可以刺激一个国家的经济增长；而如果通胀长期在5%以上，就可以称为高通胀，甚至有可能发展为恶性通胀。 美国CPI同比 恶性通胀会造成物价飙升，货币大幅贬值、社会动荡等非常严重的后果，因此各国央行货币政策的首要目标都是控制通胀，其次才是经济增长和充分就业。 CPI包含食品、能源、 商品和服务四大项。 其中，食品包括家庭食品（谷物、肉类、家禽、水果、蔬菜、饮料等）和在外饮食（员工、学校）；能源包括能源商品（汽油、燃油）和能源服务（电力、天然气）； 剔除食品和能源后，商品和服务两项构成核心CPI，主要包括住房、家居、租赁、医疗保健、服装、娱乐等细分项目。 核心CPI被认为是衡量通货膨胀的最佳指标，因为食品和能源价格有时会受到一些异常因素的影响而产生大幅波动，并模糊消费价格的真实变动趋势。 由于CPI细分项目权重都尽不相同，对CPI影响力度自然不同。从最新CPI各分项权重构成来看，权重占比最大的是服务，达到57.58%；其次是商品，权重为21.70%；食品、能源所占权重分别为13.37%和7.35%。 值得注意的是，CPI细分项目和项目权重并非恒定不变，美国劳工部会根据消费者支出模式和偏好的改变每两年对项目权重进行一次调整。最近一次调整时间就是今年2月，除了对CPI权重进行了新的调整之外，还引入更新季节性因素。 与调整前相比，价格高企的能源、食品和服务中的其他项权重被调低，价格稳定的二手车、新车、家庭食品权重有所上调，核心CPI的权重增加。美国这次调整有压低总体CPI的嫌疑。 2020年以来，美国非常规的量化宽松政策导致CPI增速一路攀升，2022年1","text":"消费者价格指数（CPI）是由美国劳工统计局（BLS）统计并公布，衡量消费者为一篮子消费品和服务所支付价格的指标，年度或月度增长率代表通胀。因此CPI是衡量居民购买力和通货膨胀的重要指标。 通胀既不能太高也不太低，温和的通胀（2%-3%）可以刺激一个国家的经济增长；而如果通胀长期在5%以上，就可以称为高通胀，甚至有可能发展为恶性通胀。 美国CPI同比 恶性通胀会造成物价飙升，货币大幅贬值、社会动荡等非常严重的后果，因此各国央行货币政策的首要目标都是控制通胀，其次才是经济增长和充分就业。 CPI包含食品、能源、 商品和服务四大项。 其中，食品包括家庭食品（谷物、肉类、家禽、水果、蔬菜、饮料等）和在外饮食（员工、学校）；能源包括能源商品（汽油、燃油）和能源服务（电力、天然气）； 剔除食品和能源后，商品和服务两项构成核心CPI，主要包括住房、家居、租赁、医疗保健、服装、娱乐等细分项目。 核心CPI被认为是衡量通货膨胀的最佳指标，因为食品和能源价格有时会受到一些异常因素的影响而产生大幅波动，并模糊消费价格的真实变动趋势。 由于CPI细分项目权重都尽不相同，对CPI影响力度自然不同。从最新CPI各分项权重构成来看，权重占比最大的是服务，达到57.58%；其次是商品，权重为21.70%；食品、能源所占权重分别为13.37%和7.35%。 值得注意的是，CPI细分项目和项目权重并非恒定不变，美国劳工部会根据消费者支出模式和偏好的改变每两年对项目权重进行一次调整。最近一次调整时间就是今年2月，除了对CPI权重进行了新的调整之外，还引入更新季节性因素。 与调整前相比，价格高企的能源、食品和服务中的其他项权重被调低，价格稳定的二手车、新车、家庭食品权重有所上调，核心CPI的权重增加。美国这次调整有压低总体CPI的嫌疑。 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“老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 就，一起发现宝藏虎友，一起投资一起成长。谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/638787572\" target=\"_blank\">俄乌危机下，有哪些投资机会？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36989258284800\">@小虎老师</a> 投资者关注俄东紧张趋势，美股三大股指期货开盘下挫，避险情绪推升原油黄金上涨，美股各板块涨跌不一，在这场危机之下，我们应该如何避险对冲，又会有哪些投资机会？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636159862\" target=\"_blank\">“失速”阿里若是常态，价投者还会爱吗？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> 目前来看，阿里股价的支撑因素有两个：1. 芒格等著名投资人的抄底，这将带动市场情绪。2. 公司本身的回购。本季度公司回购金额14亿美元。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636342021\" target=\"_blank\">为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3491416357875149\">@Owen交易室</a> 找人接盘美债，才是美国政府的当务之急，所以，一个通胀，一个托底美债价格，才是他们目前最头痛的问题，而一场战争，可以完美的解决这两个矛盾。 战争","listText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 就，一起发现宝藏虎友，一起投资一起成长。谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/638787572\" target=\"_blank\">俄乌危机下，有哪些投资机会？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36989258284800\">@小虎老师</a> 投资者关注俄东紧张趋势，美股三大股指期货开盘下挫，避险情绪推升原油黄金上涨，美股各板块涨跌不一，在这场危机之下，我们应该如何避险对冲，又会有哪些投资机会？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636159862\" target=\"_blank\">“失速”阿里若是常态，价投者还会爱吗？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> 目前来看，阿里股价的支撑因素有两个：1. 芒格等著名投资人的抄底，这将带动市场情绪。2. 公司本身的回购。本季度公司回购金额14亿美元。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636342021\" target=\"_blank\">为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3491416357875149\">@Owen交易室</a> 找人接盘美债，才是美国政府的当务之急，所以，一个通胀，一个托底美债价格，才是他们目前最头痛的问题，而一场战争，可以完美的解决这两个矛盾。 战争","text":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 就，一起发现宝藏虎友，一起投资一起成长。谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： 俄乌危机下，有哪些投资机会？ 发布者：@小虎老师 投资者关注俄东紧张趋势，美股三大股指期货开盘下挫，避险情绪推升原油黄金上涨，美股各板块涨跌不一，在这场危机之下，我们应该如何避险对冲，又会有哪些投资机会？ “失速”阿里若是常态，价投者还会爱吗？ 发布者：@小虎消息 目前来看，阿里股价的支撑因素有两个：1. 芒格等著名投资人的抄底，这将带动市场情绪。2. 公司本身的回购。本季度公司回购金额14亿美元。 为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争？ 发布者：@Owen交易室 找人接盘美债，才是美国政府的当务之急，所以，一个通胀，一个托底美债价格，才是他们目前最头痛的问题，而一场战争，可以完美的解决这两个矛盾。 战争","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a72315b4364b87e4ca77ff195723e4","width":"693","height":"396"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abe65bc1b2d28c79ac959dafc019ad2","width":"857","height":"463"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8317313f087d3f8724e7bdc3e8857bd8","width":"895","height":"587"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636222691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636213321,"gmtCreate":1645871077534,"gmtModify":1645871077534,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636213321","repostId":"1156241029","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156241029","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1645790054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156241029?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-25 19:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"俄乌开战你最受伤？五点建议保住钱袋子","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156241029","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"虽然无法精准判断地缘政治对市场的影响程度，但这类事件一般不会妨碍股市在中期内走高，恐慌和投资多样化程度不够高才是最大的危险。当地时间2月24日，美欧宣布对俄罗斯实施新的制裁，不过制裁措施中没有包括俄罗","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>虽然无法精准判断地缘政治对市场的影响程度，但这类事件一般不会妨碍股市在中期内走高，恐慌和投资多样化程度不够高才是最大的危险。</blockquote><p>当地时间2月24日，美欧宣布对俄罗斯实施新的制裁，不过制裁措施中没有包括俄罗斯能源出口的限制，也没有包括将俄罗斯踢出SWIFT国际支付系统。</p><p>美国总统拜登当日还表示，美国不会与俄罗斯交战，也不会向乌克兰境内部署军队。北约也表示没有任何计划或意图向乌克兰派遣部队。当地时间2月25日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，西方已经完全放弃了乌克兰。</p><p>由于美欧最新制裁措施未涉及能源和SWIFT两个投资者最关心的问题，昨日美股市场在早盘暴跌后走势出现逆转，三大股指收盘均走高，纳指大幅收涨3.1%，标普500指数和道指分别涨1.5%和0.28%。</p><p>2月25日（周五）亚太股市也出现反弹。A股三大指数均收盘走高，上证指数涨0.63%，深证成指涨1.21%，创业板指涨2.58%。香港恒指高开低走收跌0.59%，恒生科技指数在盘中涨超2.7%后收涨0.84%。日经225指数收盘上涨1.95%，韩国KOSPI指数收涨1.07%。周四跌了38%的俄罗斯RTS指数今日开盘后大涨28%。</p><p>不过截至发稿，周五美股期货再次出现下跌，说明股市可能还没脱离风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a>董事总经理洪灏25日发文指出，昨夜美股的反转更像是熊市反弹。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9a72952d3dd3f5875085b122b9d770\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"84\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>《巴伦周刊》指出，油价上涨加剧通胀和美联储议息会议召开之际，市场还将继续剧烈波动，投资者可以从五个方面予以应对。</p><p><b>1、美股缓了口气，但更多的麻烦在后面？</b></p><p>美国宣布针对俄罗斯新的制裁措施力度没那么大是美股昨夜由跌转涨的原因之一。当地时间2月24日，美国总统拜登在与七国集团领导人举行视频会晤后宣布，美国将从2月24日开始冻结俄罗斯在美国的所有资产，他说：“制裁将给俄罗斯经济带来沉重代价，无论是在短期内还是长期内。”</p><p>最新制裁对象包括俄罗斯最大的金融机构Sberbank及其25家子公司，以及包括俄罗斯第二大银行VTB Bank在内的其他四家主要银行及其子公司。此举旨在切断俄罗斯获得美元的渠道，据美国财政部估计，制裁涉及俄罗斯银行业近80%的资产。另外，美国还将冻结俄罗斯精英人士及其家属的资产。</p><p>美国还将限制对俄罗斯国防至关重要的美国军事装备和其他敏感技术的出口。拜登说，这些制裁会切断俄罗斯一半以上的高科技进口，给俄罗斯军事和航空航天工业现代化带来打击。拜登强调，制裁是美国与“占全球经济总量一半以上”的盟友共同实施，多边制裁将导致流入俄罗斯的外资减少500亿美元以上。</p><p>此外，投资者重新燃起对科技股的兴趣是纳指带动美股上涨的另一个原因。</p><p>最近几个交易日，美股市场因俄乌危机持续承压，有关俄罗斯石油出口受到制裁进而导致通胀进一步加剧是投资者最担心的问题之一，再加上美联储已经开始收紧政策，这两个因素会给经济增长带来巨大压力。</p><p>道指中对经济增长较为敏感的周期性股票压力最大，昨日道指涨幅最小就说明了这一点。但投资者似乎重新燃起了对科技股的兴趣。</p><p>Truist联席首席投资官基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)说：“之前股市面临的风险主要是股票估值过高，而现在更大的风险变成了经济增长放缓会在短期内降低公司盈利，这对道指尤为不利，而科技股之前因为杀估值已经跌了不少，其中包括一些高质量的公司，因此当对经济增长的担忧出现时，科技股就会显著回升。”</p><p>不过交银国际董事总经理洪灏指出，昨夜标普期货开盘跌幅超过2%至6个月低点，然后V型反转，收盘涨幅超过1%，在标普期货四十年的历史中，这种情况只出现过三次，分别是2002 年 7 月 24 日、2008 年 9 月 16 日、2021年2月24日(昨夜)。前两次这种情况出现时，美股已经深陷熊市，美国经济处于深度衰退。2002年的那次，美股随后在02年10月和03年经历了两次回探到同样的深度、美国经济走出衰退后，才最终反转。而2008年那次正值雷曼倒闭，美股反弹了一天之后，再继续下跌了50%才止跌，直到美联储第一次量化宽松的推出。</p><p>洪灏认为：“昨夜美股历史性反转虽然几十年一遇，但更像是熊市反弹。毕竟，反弹前纳指大型股指数已经暴跌了20%，进入熊市。”</p><p><b>2、油价能飙到多高，要看俄美敢不敢打石油牌</b></p><p>拜登在最新表态中仍没有提到对俄罗斯的石油出口进行制裁，他表示将释放美国更多的石油储备，以防能源价格飙升。拜登的经济顾问2月24日表示，长期来说，针对技术领域的制裁将扰乱俄罗斯发展能源工业的能力，制裁的目标是降低俄罗斯的“长期”能源能力，而不仅是“短期”内。</p><p>但瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)能源期货主管罗伯特·雅格(Robert Yawger)指出，美国及其盟友已经将俄罗斯入侵乌克兰定性为“非法行动”，如果继续购买俄罗斯石油，很快会变得说不过去，如果俄罗斯继续表现得咄咄逼人，美国及其盟友将给人留下在能源问题面前“软弱无力”的印象。雅格说：“你总不能在‘大屠杀’发生后再说‘我们不会购买俄罗斯的能源’这样的话”。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》指出，<b>美国和其他国家未来是否会对俄罗斯的石油和天然气实施制裁，以及俄罗斯是否会停止对其他国家的出口仍是两大存在不确定性的问题。这两个因素会在油价已经飙升的情况下进一步上涨。</b></p><p>国际基准布伦特原油周四上涨7%，至每桶103.66美元，为2014年以来首次突破100美元。</p><p>雅格表示：“如果俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵进一步升级，迫使美欧对其能源实施制裁的话，油价将涨到125美元。”</p><p>其他分析人士之前还曾指出，除了俄乌危机这一因素，欧佩克无意增产、其他产油国增产速度缓慢这些因素有可能把油价推高到150美元。</p><p>咨询公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600697\">欧亚集团</a>(Eurasia Group)分析师指出：“在大量替代供应（比如美欧取消对伊朗的制裁和美国提高页岩油产量）出现之前，油价很可能会继续上涨，但这需要时间，时间越长油价就涨得越高，达到每桶150美元。”</p><p><b>3、美联储仍会加息，预期幅度降至25基点</b></p><p>近期油价大幅上涨后，美国的天然气价格自2月10日以来上涨了四分之一，欧洲天然气价格飙升了45%。</p><p>几个月来美联储一直在为怎样在不妨碍经济复苏的前提下抗击通胀犯难，市场也一直在猜测美联储在3月份的会议上会采取什么幅度的加息行动，现在美联储将不得不考虑俄乌危机对经济增长的压力这一因素带来的不确定性。</p><p>现在，美联储在3月份会议上大幅加息50个基点的可能性已经大大降低，但在高通胀面前，加息25个基点的可能性依然非常高。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">芝加哥商品交易所</a>(CME)周四的数据显示，多数交易员预计美联储下个月将加息25个基点，可能性接近90%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>(Goldman Sachs)指出，美联储不会因为俄乌危机放弃在3月份加息25个基点。</p><p>许多经济学家还指出，虽然俄乌危机带来了不确定性，但预计对美国经济增长的影响将是轻微的，尤其是在美国与俄乌贸易量很少的情况下。美国经济的潜在增长能力、持续的通胀压力和充分就业意味着今年剩余时间里较长期的加息路径基本不会变。</p><p>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)周四称，油价飙升可能不会对疫情后美国经济的复苏构成特别严重的威胁，甚至可能并不会抑制经济增长。”</p><p>强劲的经济增长前景意味着通胀仍将是更大的一个威胁，而不是地缘政治冲突。Comerica Bank首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯(Bill Adams)说：“尽管地缘政治紧张局势不断升温，但预计美联储今年全年将继续收紧货币政策。”</p><p>从期货市场的定价水平来看，交易员现在预计美联储今年将至少加息6次，而且可以避免让经济陷入衰退。</p><p><b>4、应对失去方向的市场，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>有五个建议</b></p><p>瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海菲尔(Mark Haefele)周四发布研报称：“俄乌冲突升级导致市场波动加剧表明，市场还没有完全消化由此带来的风险，在各国调整并宣布其回应之际，预计短期内市场将继续动荡。”海菲尔和其他一些分析师及策略师为投资者提出了一些建议。</p><p><b>首先，提高投资多样化程度。</b>海菲尔指出，通过跨地区、行业和资产类别进行多样化投资，投资者可以减少与乌克兰危机相关的特殊风险敞口，或全球各地其他政治风险敞口，对于多元化投资组合来说，地缘政治事件导致的价格下跌通常是短暂的。</p><p><b>第二，通过大宗商品做对冲。</b>在供应中断的风险下，大宗商品可以成为对冲投资组合地缘政治风险的一个选择，这类资产在在经济加速增长、通胀持续和利率上升的环境下也能带来有吸引力的回报。海菲尔称，地缘政治紧张局势“长期升级”可能推动金价突破2000美元。目前金价在1925美元左右。</p><p><b>第三，为美元上涨做好准备。</b>海菲尔指出，美元是一种避险货币，在地缘政治不确定性加剧时期往往会上涨。</p><p><b>第四，买入优质科技股。</b>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)认为，现在是买入优质科技股的好时机。艾夫斯周四说：“目前科技股的超卖水平已达到2014年和2015年以来的最高水平，自2000年以来，我们的策略就一直是在混乱时期买入在恐慌性抛售中被超卖的优质科技股。”</p><p>有分析认为，俄罗斯可能会打击乌克兰的数据中心、网络、敏感数据和基础设施等其他漏洞。乌克兰政府部门及其附属机构的网站上周开始遭到DDoS网络攻击，多个政府部门网站23日一度无法登录。另一方面，国际黑客团体“匿名者”24日针对俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动宣布对俄发起“网络战争”，并承认攻击了今日俄罗斯电视台网站。Wedbush的分析师团队指出，地缘政治冲突有可能令网络安全股受益。</p><p><b>最后，不要恐慌，保持冷静。</b>对于长期投资者来说，不要被短期下跌吓到，因为从长远来看股市整体上会有良好表现。海菲尔称：&#34;虽然无法精准判断地缘政治对市场的影响程度，但这类事件一般不会妨碍股市在中期内走高，恐慌和投资多样化程度不够高才是最大的危险，投资者应该保持冷静，保持广阔的投资视野。&#34;</p><p>瑞银还建议投资者买入能源股、金融股、表现好于美股的欧洲股票和医疗保健等防御型股票。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>俄乌开战你最受伤？五点建议保住钱袋子</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n俄乌开战你最受伤？五点建议保住钱袋子\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-25 19:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>虽然无法精准判断地缘政治对市场的影响程度，但这类事件一般不会妨碍股市在中期内走高，恐慌和投资多样化程度不够高才是最大的危险。</blockquote><p>当地时间2月24日，美欧宣布对俄罗斯实施新的制裁，不过制裁措施中没有包括俄罗斯能源出口的限制，也没有包括将俄罗斯踢出SWIFT国际支付系统。</p><p>美国总统拜登当日还表示，美国不会与俄罗斯交战，也不会向乌克兰境内部署军队。北约也表示没有任何计划或意图向乌克兰派遣部队。当地时间2月25日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，西方已经完全放弃了乌克兰。</p><p>由于美欧最新制裁措施未涉及能源和SWIFT两个投资者最关心的问题，昨日美股市场在早盘暴跌后走势出现逆转，三大股指收盘均走高，纳指大幅收涨3.1%，标普500指数和道指分别涨1.5%和0.28%。</p><p>2月25日（周五）亚太股市也出现反弹。A股三大指数均收盘走高，上证指数涨0.63%，深证成指涨1.21%，创业板指涨2.58%。香港恒指高开低走收跌0.59%，恒生科技指数在盘中涨超2.7%后收涨0.84%。日经225指数收盘上涨1.95%，韩国KOSPI指数收涨1.07%。周四跌了38%的俄罗斯RTS指数今日开盘后大涨28%。</p><p>不过截至发稿，周五美股期货再次出现下跌，说明股市可能还没脱离风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a>董事总经理洪灏25日发文指出，昨夜美股的反转更像是熊市反弹。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9a72952d3dd3f5875085b122b9d770\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"84\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>《巴伦周刊》指出，油价上涨加剧通胀和美联储议息会议召开之际，市场还将继续剧烈波动，投资者可以从五个方面予以应对。</p><p><b>1、美股缓了口气，但更多的麻烦在后面？</b></p><p>美国宣布针对俄罗斯新的制裁措施力度没那么大是美股昨夜由跌转涨的原因之一。当地时间2月24日，美国总统拜登在与七国集团领导人举行视频会晤后宣布，美国将从2月24日开始冻结俄罗斯在美国的所有资产，他说：“制裁将给俄罗斯经济带来沉重代价，无论是在短期内还是长期内。”</p><p>最新制裁对象包括俄罗斯最大的金融机构Sberbank及其25家子公司，以及包括俄罗斯第二大银行VTB Bank在内的其他四家主要银行及其子公司。此举旨在切断俄罗斯获得美元的渠道，据美国财政部估计，制裁涉及俄罗斯银行业近80%的资产。另外，美国还将冻结俄罗斯精英人士及其家属的资产。</p><p>美国还将限制对俄罗斯国防至关重要的美国军事装备和其他敏感技术的出口。拜登说，这些制裁会切断俄罗斯一半以上的高科技进口，给俄罗斯军事和航空航天工业现代化带来打击。拜登强调，制裁是美国与“占全球经济总量一半以上”的盟友共同实施，多边制裁将导致流入俄罗斯的外资减少500亿美元以上。</p><p>此外，投资者重新燃起对科技股的兴趣是纳指带动美股上涨的另一个原因。</p><p>最近几个交易日，美股市场因俄乌危机持续承压，有关俄罗斯石油出口受到制裁进而导致通胀进一步加剧是投资者最担心的问题之一，再加上美联储已经开始收紧政策，这两个因素会给经济增长带来巨大压力。</p><p>道指中对经济增长较为敏感的周期性股票压力最大，昨日道指涨幅最小就说明了这一点。但投资者似乎重新燃起了对科技股的兴趣。</p><p>Truist联席首席投资官基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)说：“之前股市面临的风险主要是股票估值过高，而现在更大的风险变成了经济增长放缓会在短期内降低公司盈利，这对道指尤为不利，而科技股之前因为杀估值已经跌了不少，其中包括一些高质量的公司，因此当对经济增长的担忧出现时，科技股就会显著回升。”</p><p>不过交银国际董事总经理洪灏指出，昨夜标普期货开盘跌幅超过2%至6个月低点，然后V型反转，收盘涨幅超过1%，在标普期货四十年的历史中，这种情况只出现过三次，分别是2002 年 7 月 24 日、2008 年 9 月 16 日、2021年2月24日(昨夜)。前两次这种情况出现时，美股已经深陷熊市，美国经济处于深度衰退。2002年的那次，美股随后在02年10月和03年经历了两次回探到同样的深度、美国经济走出衰退后，才最终反转。而2008年那次正值雷曼倒闭，美股反弹了一天之后，再继续下跌了50%才止跌，直到美联储第一次量化宽松的推出。</p><p>洪灏认为：“昨夜美股历史性反转虽然几十年一遇，但更像是熊市反弹。毕竟，反弹前纳指大型股指数已经暴跌了20%，进入熊市。”</p><p><b>2、油价能飙到多高，要看俄美敢不敢打石油牌</b></p><p>拜登在最新表态中仍没有提到对俄罗斯的石油出口进行制裁，他表示将释放美国更多的石油储备，以防能源价格飙升。拜登的经济顾问2月24日表示，长期来说，针对技术领域的制裁将扰乱俄罗斯发展能源工业的能力，制裁的目标是降低俄罗斯的“长期”能源能力，而不仅是“短期”内。</p><p>但瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)能源期货主管罗伯特·雅格(Robert Yawger)指出，美国及其盟友已经将俄罗斯入侵乌克兰定性为“非法行动”，如果继续购买俄罗斯石油，很快会变得说不过去，如果俄罗斯继续表现得咄咄逼人，美国及其盟友将给人留下在能源问题面前“软弱无力”的印象。雅格说：“你总不能在‘大屠杀’发生后再说‘我们不会购买俄罗斯的能源’这样的话”。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》指出，<b>美国和其他国家未来是否会对俄罗斯的石油和天然气实施制裁，以及俄罗斯是否会停止对其他国家的出口仍是两大存在不确定性的问题。这两个因素会在油价已经飙升的情况下进一步上涨。</b></p><p>国际基准布伦特原油周四上涨7%，至每桶103.66美元，为2014年以来首次突破100美元。</p><p>雅格表示：“如果俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵进一步升级，迫使美欧对其能源实施制裁的话，油价将涨到125美元。”</p><p>其他分析人士之前还曾指出，除了俄乌危机这一因素，欧佩克无意增产、其他产油国增产速度缓慢这些因素有可能把油价推高到150美元。</p><p>咨询公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600697\">欧亚集团</a>(Eurasia Group)分析师指出：“在大量替代供应（比如美欧取消对伊朗的制裁和美国提高页岩油产量）出现之前，油价很可能会继续上涨，但这需要时间，时间越长油价就涨得越高，达到每桶150美元。”</p><p><b>3、美联储仍会加息，预期幅度降至25基点</b></p><p>近期油价大幅上涨后，美国的天然气价格自2月10日以来上涨了四分之一，欧洲天然气价格飙升了45%。</p><p>几个月来美联储一直在为怎样在不妨碍经济复苏的前提下抗击通胀犯难，市场也一直在猜测美联储在3月份的会议上会采取什么幅度的加息行动，现在美联储将不得不考虑俄乌危机对经济增长的压力这一因素带来的不确定性。</p><p>现在，美联储在3月份会议上大幅加息50个基点的可能性已经大大降低，但在高通胀面前，加息25个基点的可能性依然非常高。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">芝加哥商品交易所</a>(CME)周四的数据显示，多数交易员预计美联储下个月将加息25个基点，可能性接近90%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>(Goldman Sachs)指出，美联储不会因为俄乌危机放弃在3月份加息25个基点。</p><p>许多经济学家还指出，虽然俄乌危机带来了不确定性，但预计对美国经济增长的影响将是轻微的，尤其是在美国与俄乌贸易量很少的情况下。美国经济的潜在增长能力、持续的通胀压力和充分就业意味着今年剩余时间里较长期的加息路径基本不会变。</p><p>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)周四称，油价飙升可能不会对疫情后美国经济的复苏构成特别严重的威胁，甚至可能并不会抑制经济增长。”</p><p>强劲的经济增长前景意味着通胀仍将是更大的一个威胁，而不是地缘政治冲突。Comerica Bank首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯(Bill Adams)说：“尽管地缘政治紧张局势不断升温，但预计美联储今年全年将继续收紧货币政策。”</p><p>从期货市场的定价水平来看，交易员现在预计美联储今年将至少加息6次，而且可以避免让经济陷入衰退。</p><p><b>4、应对失去方向的市场，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>有五个建议</b></p><p>瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海菲尔(Mark Haefele)周四发布研报称：“俄乌冲突升级导致市场波动加剧表明，市场还没有完全消化由此带来的风险，在各国调整并宣布其回应之际，预计短期内市场将继续动荡。”海菲尔和其他一些分析师及策略师为投资者提出了一些建议。</p><p><b>首先，提高投资多样化程度。</b>海菲尔指出，通过跨地区、行业和资产类别进行多样化投资，投资者可以减少与乌克兰危机相关的特殊风险敞口，或全球各地其他政治风险敞口，对于多元化投资组合来说，地缘政治事件导致的价格下跌通常是短暂的。</p><p><b>第二，通过大宗商品做对冲。</b>在供应中断的风险下，大宗商品可以成为对冲投资组合地缘政治风险的一个选择，这类资产在在经济加速增长、通胀持续和利率上升的环境下也能带来有吸引力的回报。海菲尔称，地缘政治紧张局势“长期升级”可能推动金价突破2000美元。目前金价在1925美元左右。</p><p><b>第三，为美元上涨做好准备。</b>海菲尔指出，美元是一种避险货币，在地缘政治不确定性加剧时期往往会上涨。</p><p><b>第四，买入优质科技股。</b>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)认为，现在是买入优质科技股的好时机。艾夫斯周四说：“目前科技股的超卖水平已达到2014年和2015年以来的最高水平，自2000年以来，我们的策略就一直是在混乱时期买入在恐慌性抛售中被超卖的优质科技股。”</p><p>有分析认为，俄罗斯可能会打击乌克兰的数据中心、网络、敏感数据和基础设施等其他漏洞。乌克兰政府部门及其附属机构的网站上周开始遭到DDoS网络攻击，多个政府部门网站23日一度无法登录。另一方面，国际黑客团体“匿名者”24日针对俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动宣布对俄发起“网络战争”，并承认攻击了今日俄罗斯电视台网站。Wedbush的分析师团队指出，地缘政治冲突有可能令网络安全股受益。</p><p><b>最后，不要恐慌，保持冷静。</b>对于长期投资者来说，不要被短期下跌吓到，因为从长远来看股市整体上会有良好表现。海菲尔称：&#34;虽然无法精准判断地缘政治对市场的影响程度，但这类事件一般不会妨碍股市在中期内走高，恐慌和投资多样化程度不够高才是最大的危险，投资者应该保持冷静，保持广阔的投资视野。&#34;</p><p>瑞银还建议投资者买入能源股、金融股、表现好于美股的欧洲股票和医疗保健等防御型股票。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156241029","content_text":"虽然无法精准判断地缘政治对市场的影响程度，但这类事件一般不会妨碍股市在中期内走高，恐慌和投资多样化程度不够高才是最大的危险。当地时间2月24日，美欧宣布对俄罗斯实施新的制裁，不过制裁措施中没有包括俄罗斯能源出口的限制，也没有包括将俄罗斯踢出SWIFT国际支付系统。美国总统拜登当日还表示，美国不会与俄罗斯交战，也不会向乌克兰境内部署军队。北约也表示没有任何计划或意图向乌克兰派遣部队。当地时间2月25日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，西方已经完全放弃了乌克兰。由于美欧最新制裁措施未涉及能源和SWIFT两个投资者最关心的问题，昨日美股市场在早盘暴跌后走势出现逆转，三大股指收盘均走高，纳指大幅收涨3.1%，标普500指数和道指分别涨1.5%和0.28%。2月25日（周五）亚太股市也出现反弹。A股三大指数均收盘走高，上证指数涨0.63%，深证成指涨1.21%，创业板指涨2.58%。香港恒指高开低走收跌0.59%，恒生科技指数在盘中涨超2.7%后收涨0.84%。日经225指数收盘上涨1.95%，韩国KOSPI指数收涨1.07%。周四跌了38%的俄罗斯RTS指数今日开盘后大涨28%。不过截至发稿，周五美股期货再次出现下跌，说明股市可能还没脱离风险。交银国际董事总经理洪灏25日发文指出，昨夜美股的反转更像是熊市反弹。《巴伦周刊》指出，油价上涨加剧通胀和美联储议息会议召开之际，市场还将继续剧烈波动，投资者可以从五个方面予以应对。1、美股缓了口气，但更多的麻烦在后面？美国宣布针对俄罗斯新的制裁措施力度没那么大是美股昨夜由跌转涨的原因之一。当地时间2月24日，美国总统拜登在与七国集团领导人举行视频会晤后宣布，美国将从2月24日开始冻结俄罗斯在美国的所有资产，他说：“制裁将给俄罗斯经济带来沉重代价，无论是在短期内还是长期内。”最新制裁对象包括俄罗斯最大的金融机构Sberbank及其25家子公司，以及包括俄罗斯第二大银行VTB Bank在内的其他四家主要银行及其子公司。此举旨在切断俄罗斯获得美元的渠道，据美国财政部估计，制裁涉及俄罗斯银行业近80%的资产。另外，美国还将冻结俄罗斯精英人士及其家属的资产。美国还将限制对俄罗斯国防至关重要的美国军事装备和其他敏感技术的出口。拜登说，这些制裁会切断俄罗斯一半以上的高科技进口，给俄罗斯军事和航空航天工业现代化带来打击。拜登强调，制裁是美国与“占全球经济总量一半以上”的盟友共同实施，多边制裁将导致流入俄罗斯的外资减少500亿美元以上。此外，投资者重新燃起对科技股的兴趣是纳指带动美股上涨的另一个原因。最近几个交易日，美股市场因俄乌危机持续承压，有关俄罗斯石油出口受到制裁进而导致通胀进一步加剧是投资者最担心的问题之一，再加上美联储已经开始收紧政策，这两个因素会给经济增长带来巨大压力。道指中对经济增长较为敏感的周期性股票压力最大，昨日道指涨幅最小就说明了这一点。但投资者似乎重新燃起了对科技股的兴趣。Truist联席首席投资官基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)说：“之前股市面临的风险主要是股票估值过高，而现在更大的风险变成了经济增长放缓会在短期内降低公司盈利，这对道指尤为不利，而科技股之前因为杀估值已经跌了不少，其中包括一些高质量的公司，因此当对经济增长的担忧出现时，科技股就会显著回升。”不过交银国际董事总经理洪灏指出，昨夜标普期货开盘跌幅超过2%至6个月低点，然后V型反转，收盘涨幅超过1%，在标普期货四十年的历史中，这种情况只出现过三次，分别是2002 年 7 月 24 日、2008 年 9 月 16 日、2021年2月24日(昨夜)。前两次这种情况出现时，美股已经深陷熊市，美国经济处于深度衰退。2002年的那次，美股随后在02年10月和03年经历了两次回探到同样的深度、美国经济走出衰退后，才最终反转。而2008年那次正值雷曼倒闭，美股反弹了一天之后，再继续下跌了50%才止跌，直到美联储第一次量化宽松的推出。洪灏认为：“昨夜美股历史性反转虽然几十年一遇，但更像是熊市反弹。毕竟，反弹前纳指大型股指数已经暴跌了20%，进入熊市。”2、油价能飙到多高，要看俄美敢不敢打石油牌拜登在最新表态中仍没有提到对俄罗斯的石油出口进行制裁，他表示将释放美国更多的石油储备，以防能源价格飙升。拜登的经济顾问2月24日表示，长期来说，针对技术领域的制裁将扰乱俄罗斯发展能源工业的能力，制裁的目标是降低俄罗斯的“长期”能源能力，而不仅是“短期”内。但瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)能源期货主管罗伯特·雅格(Robert Yawger)指出，美国及其盟友已经将俄罗斯入侵乌克兰定性为“非法行动”，如果继续购买俄罗斯石油，很快会变得说不过去，如果俄罗斯继续表现得咄咄逼人，美国及其盟友将给人留下在能源问题面前“软弱无力”的印象。雅格说：“你总不能在‘大屠杀’发生后再说‘我们不会购买俄罗斯的能源’这样的话”。《巴伦周刊》指出，美国和其他国家未来是否会对俄罗斯的石油和天然气实施制裁，以及俄罗斯是否会停止对其他国家的出口仍是两大存在不确定性的问题。这两个因素会在油价已经飙升的情况下进一步上涨。国际基准布伦特原油周四上涨7%，至每桶103.66美元，为2014年以来首次突破100美元。雅格表示：“如果俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵进一步升级，迫使美欧对其能源实施制裁的话，油价将涨到125美元。”其他分析人士之前还曾指出，除了俄乌危机这一因素，欧佩克无意增产、其他产油国增产速度缓慢这些因素有可能把油价推高到150美元。咨询公司欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)分析师指出：“在大量替代供应（比如美欧取消对伊朗的制裁和美国提高页岩油产量）出现之前，油价很可能会继续上涨，但这需要时间，时间越长油价就涨得越高，达到每桶150美元。”3、美联储仍会加息，预期幅度降至25基点近期油价大幅上涨后，美国的天然气价格自2月10日以来上涨了四分之一，欧洲天然气价格飙升了45%。几个月来美联储一直在为怎样在不妨碍经济复苏的前提下抗击通胀犯难，市场也一直在猜测美联储在3月份的会议上会采取什么幅度的加息行动，现在美联储将不得不考虑俄乌危机对经济增长的压力这一因素带来的不确定性。现在，美联储在3月份会议上大幅加息50个基点的可能性已经大大降低，但在高通胀面前，加息25个基点的可能性依然非常高。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)周四的数据显示，多数交易员预计美联储下个月将加息25个基点，可能性接近90%。高盛(Goldman Sachs)指出，美联储不会因为俄乌危机放弃在3月份加息25个基点。许多经济学家还指出，虽然俄乌危机带来了不确定性，但预计对美国经济增长的影响将是轻微的，尤其是在美国与俄乌贸易量很少的情况下。美国经济的潜在增长能力、持续的通胀压力和充分就业意味着今年剩余时间里较长期的加息路径基本不会变。Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)周四称，油价飙升可能不会对疫情后美国经济的复苏构成特别严重的威胁，甚至可能并不会抑制经济增长。”强劲的经济增长前景意味着通胀仍将是更大的一个威胁，而不是地缘政治冲突。Comerica Bank首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯(Bill Adams)说：“尽管地缘政治紧张局势不断升温，但预计美联储今年全年将继续收紧货币政策。”从期货市场的定价水平来看，交易员现在预计美联储今年将至少加息6次，而且可以避免让经济陷入衰退。4、应对失去方向的市场，瑞银有五个建议瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海菲尔(Mark Haefele)周四发布研报称：“俄乌冲突升级导致市场波动加剧表明，市场还没有完全消化由此带来的风险，在各国调整并宣布其回应之际，预计短期内市场将继续动荡。”海菲尔和其他一些分析师及策略师为投资者提出了一些建议。首先，提高投资多样化程度。海菲尔指出，通过跨地区、行业和资产类别进行多样化投资，投资者可以减少与乌克兰危机相关的特殊风险敞口，或全球各地其他政治风险敞口，对于多元化投资组合来说，地缘政治事件导致的价格下跌通常是短暂的。第二，通过大宗商品做对冲。在供应中断的风险下，大宗商品可以成为对冲投资组合地缘政治风险的一个选择，这类资产在在经济加速增长、通胀持续和利率上升的环境下也能带来有吸引力的回报。海菲尔称，地缘政治紧张局势“长期升级”可能推动金价突破2000美元。目前金价在1925美元左右。第三，为美元上涨做好准备。海菲尔指出，美元是一种避险货币，在地缘政治不确定性加剧时期往往会上涨。第四，买入优质科技股。Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)认为，现在是买入优质科技股的好时机。艾夫斯周四说：“目前科技股的超卖水平已达到2014年和2015年以来的最高水平，自2000年以来，我们的策略就一直是在混乱时期买入在恐慌性抛售中被超卖的优质科技股。”有分析认为，俄罗斯可能会打击乌克兰的数据中心、网络、敏感数据和基础设施等其他漏洞。乌克兰政府部门及其附属机构的网站上周开始遭到DDoS网络攻击，多个政府部门网站23日一度无法登录。另一方面，国际黑客团体“匿名者”24日针对俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动宣布对俄发起“网络战争”，并承认攻击了今日俄罗斯电视台网站。Wedbush的分析师团队指出，地缘政治冲突有可能令网络安全股受益。最后，不要恐慌，保持冷静。对于长期投资者来说，不要被短期下跌吓到，因为从长远来看股市整体上会有良好表现。海菲尔称：\"虽然无法精准判断地缘政治对市场的影响程度，但这类事件一般不会妨碍股市在中期内走高，恐慌和投资多样化程度不够高才是最大的危险，投资者应该保持冷静，保持广阔的投资视野。\"瑞银还建议投资者买入能源股、金融股、表现好于美股的欧洲股票和医疗保健等防御型股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607578191,"gmtCreate":1639572309852,"gmtModify":1639572309852,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607578191","repostId":"874813411","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":874813411,"gmtCreate":1637755439825,"gmtModify":1637764910581,"author":{"id":"3580877563020480","authorId":"3580877563020480","name":"长牛笔记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86dabea3fab8e66b3fcd8b512c2897c0","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580877563020480","authorIdStr":"3580877563020480"},"themes":[],"title":"元宇宙报告阅读有感","htmlText":"自从Facebook宣布改名为Meta后，元宇宙被炒作的沸沸扬扬，许多声称“元宇宙概念”的版块和个股也受到了极大的追捧。其实关注互联网，人工智能等领域比较多的小伙伴应该都知道，元宇宙这个概念存在了很久了，包括几大巨头们其实早早的就都开始布局了，只是随着最近的更名时间这一切突然来到了台面上。其实我一直对元宇宙这个概念是抱有一些怀疑的，我不是否认这样的概念，而是对这样的概念需要多久才能成为现实抱有很大的怀疑。著名的“缸中大脑”假想其中包含着非常重要的条件就是大脑被存放在了一个充满营养液的容器中，这解决了本质的问题：“生存”。硬件，算力，软件再强大，这样的元宇宙总无法解决一个基本的需求，人总要进食，总要喝水，由此一定存在“虚”与“实”，由此也就存在了价值的界定。前面说的是我一直以来的一个疑问，最近几天刚好看到中信证券出了一个100多页的元宇宙报告，抱着好奇的心态我速速浏览了一下，虽然不能解答这个疑惑，但也发现一些有意思的内容，和大家分享。如果想要获取完整报告的小伙伴，也可以到文末找到获取方式。变化的概念，不变的基础建设其实这两年有许多新的概念，5g，新能源车，自动驾驶，物联网，脑机等等等等，科幻程度从浅到深各有不同，但是所有这一切的创新都是基于“计算”。而“计算”又对应着“硬件”以及更后端的“能源”及“稀有资源”，所以任凭想象力如何发挥，概念如何变化，基础建设，底层支持都是不变且确定的。PS：如今“TSM inside”的普及面应该已经远超“intel inside”了。连点成线这个关联和概念我是非常认可的，创新往往就是将不同的技术连接，产生了意想不到的效果。其实这也和Jobs在斯坦福大学的演讲中的观点一致，生命中的点点滴滴终将串联起来，只不过一个是针对个人，一个是针对社会。虽然元宇宙的前景和应用都还很模糊，但是不妨碍我们去关注这些最新的，不断发展的点。持续学习，跟上时代，也许哪","listText":"自从Facebook宣布改名为Meta后，元宇宙被炒作的沸沸扬扬，许多声称“元宇宙概念”的版块和个股也受到了极大的追捧。其实关注互联网，人工智能等领域比较多的小伙伴应该都知道，元宇宙这个概念存在了很久了，包括几大巨头们其实早早的就都开始布局了，只是随着最近的更名时间这一切突然来到了台面上。其实我一直对元宇宙这个概念是抱有一些怀疑的，我不是否认这样的概念，而是对这样的概念需要多久才能成为现实抱有很大的怀疑。著名的“缸中大脑”假想其中包含着非常重要的条件就是大脑被存放在了一个充满营养液的容器中，这解决了本质的问题：“生存”。硬件，算力，软件再强大，这样的元宇宙总无法解决一个基本的需求，人总要进食，总要喝水，由此一定存在“虚”与“实”，由此也就存在了价值的界定。前面说的是我一直以来的一个疑问，最近几天刚好看到中信证券出了一个100多页的元宇宙报告，抱着好奇的心态我速速浏览了一下，虽然不能解答这个疑惑，但也发现一些有意思的内容，和大家分享。如果想要获取完整报告的小伙伴，也可以到文末找到获取方式。变化的概念，不变的基础建设其实这两年有许多新的概念，5g，新能源车，自动驾驶，物联网，脑机等等等等，科幻程度从浅到深各有不同，但是所有这一切的创新都是基于“计算”。而“计算”又对应着“硬件”以及更后端的“能源”及“稀有资源”，所以任凭想象力如何发挥，概念如何变化，基础建设，底层支持都是不变且确定的。PS：如今“TSM inside”的普及面应该已经远超“intel 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/816600550\" target=\"_blank\">【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】做买家还是卖家？（8月篇）</a>）：期权买家像是创业的，收益无限风险有限；期权卖家则像是卖保险的，收益有限风险无限。对于期权小白来说，这么简单地听上去好像当期权买家会比较划算，但是现实世界里，卖保险的远比创业的多，这说明这里面有一些逻辑是需要我们去厘清的。长期地卖期权是能够获得稳定盈利的，这点不仅在理论上能成立，我本人也是一直在实战验证的。常言道，买的没有卖的精。相对于期权买家，期权卖家所需要的心理素质和风控能力要求其实是更加高的，这篇文章里我们就来讨论一下期权卖家要想获利的话需要具备哪些修养。周星驰 《喜剧之王》按照国际惯例，先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：十一月份盈利6万7千刀！随着11月份大盘的飙升，这个月期权的盈利飙升到了6万7千刀的历史新高！全年平均每月落袋盈利2万6千刀，夏普比率1.31，杠杆率2.46。这是跌宕起伏的一个月，先是大盘飙升，很多Sell Put的Delta值因为股价的大涨而低至0.05以下了，对于那些12月份或者1月份才到期的期权，我是先平仓套利。然后再卖出一个同样行权日但行权价高一些的Put，这样能吃到更高的时间价值。当奥密克戎新毒株恐慌来袭，我又提前平仓了一些曝险比较高的Put，因此这个月的收益急剧飙升。11月份完成的期权交易一共21笔，记录如下截至11月30日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至11月30日我的","listText":"期权交易是一个零和游戏，卖家能赚到的就是买家亏掉的，卖家亏掉的就是买家赚到的，没有第三种可能性。这是做期权和做股票的思维最重要的差别之一。之前我说过一个比喻（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/816600550\" target=\"_blank\">【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】做买家还是卖家？（8月篇）</a>）：期权买家像是创业的，收益无限风险有限；期权卖家则像是卖保险的，收益有限风险无限。对于期权小白来说，这么简单地听上去好像当期权买家会比较划算，但是现实世界里，卖保险的远比创业的多，这说明这里面有一些逻辑是需要我们去厘清的。长期地卖期权是能够获得稳定盈利的，这点不仅在理论上能成立，我本人也是一直在实战验证的。常言道，买的没有卖的精。相对于期权买家，期权卖家所需要的心理素质和风控能力要求其实是更加高的，这篇文章里我们就来讨论一下期权卖家要想获利的话需要具备哪些修养。周星驰 《喜剧之王》按照国际惯例，先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：十一月份盈利6万7千刀！随着11月份大盘的飙升，这个月期权的盈利飙升到了6万7千刀的历史新高！全年平均每月落袋盈利2万6千刀，夏普比率1.31，杠杆率2.46。这是跌宕起伏的一个月，先是大盘飙升，很多Sell Put的Delta值因为股价的大涨而低至0.05以下了，对于那些12月份或者1月份才到期的期权，我是先平仓套利。然后再卖出一个同样行权日但行权价高一些的Put，这样能吃到更高的时间价值。当奥密克戎新毒株恐慌来袭，我又提前平仓了一些曝险比较高的Put，因此这个月的收益急剧飙升。11月份完成的期权交易一共21笔，记录如下截至11月30日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至11月30日我的","text":"期权交易是一个零和游戏，卖家能赚到的就是买家亏掉的，卖家亏掉的就是买家赚到的，没有第三种可能性。这是做期权和做股票的思维最重要的差别之一。之前我说过一个比喻（【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】做买家还是卖家？（8月篇））：期权买家像是创业的，收益无限风险有限；期权卖家则像是卖保险的，收益有限风险无限。对于期权小白来说，这么简单地听上去好像当期权买家会比较划算，但是现实世界里，卖保险的远比创业的多，这说明这里面有一些逻辑是需要我们去厘清的。长期地卖期权是能够获得稳定盈利的，这点不仅在理论上能成立，我本人也是一直在实战验证的。常言道，买的没有卖的精。相对于期权买家，期权卖家所需要的心理素质和风控能力要求其实是更加高的，这篇文章里我们就来讨论一下期权卖家要想获利的话需要具备哪些修养。周星驰 《喜剧之王》按照国际惯例，先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：十一月份盈利6万7千刀！随着11月份大盘的飙升，这个月期权的盈利飙升到了6万7千刀的历史新高！全年平均每月落袋盈利2万6千刀，夏普比率1.31，杠杆率2.46。这是跌宕起伏的一个月，先是大盘飙升，很多Sell Put的Delta值因为股价的大涨而低至0.05以下了，对于那些12月份或者1月份才到期的期权，我是先平仓套利。然后再卖出一个同样行权日但行权价高一些的Put，这样能吃到更高的时间价值。当奥密克戎新毒株恐慌来袭，我又提前平仓了一些曝险比较高的Put，因此这个月的收益急剧飙升。11月份完成的期权交易一共21笔，记录如下截至11月30日我的$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 持仓截至11月30日我的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9775e2f3bc4013a97dc85f5dedd19bd2","width":"1124","height":"843"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609497695","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608875884,"gmtCreate":1638696149706,"gmtModify":1638696149706,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608875884","repostId":"608969195","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":608969195,"gmtCreate":1638597299659,"gmtModify":1638604955056,"author":{"id":"3548388348794551","authorId":"3548388348794551","name":"问就是加仓up","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e98ddf789d46c5627f944fc581c0fe9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548388348794551","authorIdStr":"3548388348794551"},"themes":[],"title":"中概股正在推倒重来","htmlText":"昨晚中概股再次迎来暴跌，跌幅之大虽然不及之前，但是这次属于无差别伤害，要我说，现在的中概股下跌，分明就是按照跌倒重来算的。随便找个中概股，昨晚都是接近10个点。而且是前天晚上已经跌了一波了。至于说很多股票今年的跌幅，真的是惨不忍睹。从3月份开始写中概股暴跌，我的观点就比较明确，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/356261741\" target=\"_blank\">中概股持续杀跌，抄底还是敬畏市场？</a>这是3月底暴跌的时候写的，从之后一路写了很多篇，基本上都是不抄底，唯一的抄底的帖子是9月发过的，不过金额控制的还行，现在已经-15%了，而且我是每天定投的，大概买了6000块钱。至于文中说的可能会在这个基础上再跌50%，那真的是巧合了，只是当时比较谨慎，但是按照现在这个走势来看，这也不是什么不可能的事。中概股这一次的下跌，除了杀估值，另一个重要因素就是昨天美国刚通过的外国公司问责法案，这个也是上半年下跌的导火索。最近该法案的通过算是利空彻底落地，后续如何真正实施静候观察。风险点有哪些站在这个时间点再次梳理一下中概股，之前的时候我说中概股有两个风险，政策风险和估值风险，目前估值风险基本上可以忽略，但是政策风险依然巨大。政策影响是诸多的，来源多方面，目前看有些领域的政策已经持续落地，但是更多的政策可能还在路上，目前来说，估值风险不大，但是政策带来的情绪杀依然需要谨慎。从去年开始中概股暴涨，一年十几倍的股票无数，但是从年初开始的暴跌，将这个上涨几乎抹平，甚至继续向下杀。目前的下跌，已经不是基本面能够解释的了，但是基本面好的公司可能会比较抗跌，不过由于基本面好的股票会有比较多的境外投资者，这些人的抛压会抵消基本面的坚挺，因此表现在股价走势上，就是无差别下杀。可以抄底吗从稳健的角度来说，别抄底，即使跌了这么多，我觉得抄底依然是件盈亏比极度不划算的事，炒股这","listText":"昨晚中概股再次迎来暴跌，跌幅之大虽然不及之前，但是这次属于无差别伤害，要我说，现在的中概股下跌，分明就是按照跌倒重来算的。随便找个中概股，昨晚都是接近10个点。而且是前天晚上已经跌了一波了。至于说很多股票今年的跌幅，真的是惨不忍睹。从3月份开始写中概股暴跌，我的观点就比较明确，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/356261741\" target=\"_blank\">中概股持续杀跌，抄底还是敬畏市场？</a>这是3月底暴跌的时候写的，从之后一路写了很多篇，基本上都是不抄底，唯一的抄底的帖子是9月发过的，不过金额控制的还行，现在已经-15%了，而且我是每天定投的，大概买了6000块钱。至于文中说的可能会在这个基础上再跌50%，那真的是巧合了，只是当时比较谨慎，但是按照现在这个走势来看，这也不是什么不可能的事。中概股这一次的下跌，除了杀估值，另一个重要因素就是昨天美国刚通过的外国公司问责法案，这个也是上半年下跌的导火索。最近该法案的通过算是利空彻底落地，后续如何真正实施静候观察。风险点有哪些站在这个时间点再次梳理一下中概股，之前的时候我说中概股有两个风险，政策风险和估值风险，目前估值风险基本上可以忽略，但是政策风险依然巨大。政策影响是诸多的，来源多方面，目前看有些领域的政策已经持续落地，但是更多的政策可能还在路上，目前来说，估值风险不大，但是政策带来的情绪杀依然需要谨慎。从去年开始中概股暴涨，一年十几倍的股票无数，但是从年初开始的暴跌，将这个上涨几乎抹平，甚至继续向下杀。目前的下跌，已经不是基本面能够解释的了，但是基本面好的公司可能会比较抗跌，不过由于基本面好的股票会有比较多的境外投资者，这些人的抛压会抵消基本面的坚挺，因此表现在股价走势上，就是无差别下杀。可以抄底吗从稳健的角度来说，别抄底，即使跌了这么多，我觉得抄底依然是件盈亏比极度不划算的事，炒股这","text":"昨晚中概股再次迎来暴跌，跌幅之大虽然不及之前，但是这次属于无差别伤害，要我说，现在的中概股下跌，分明就是按照跌倒重来算的。随便找个中概股，昨晚都是接近10个点。而且是前天晚上已经跌了一波了。至于说很多股票今年的跌幅，真的是惨不忍睹。从3月份开始写中概股暴跌，我的观点就比较明确，中概股持续杀跌，抄底还是敬畏市场？这是3月底暴跌的时候写的，从之后一路写了很多篇，基本上都是不抄底，唯一的抄底的帖子是9月发过的，不过金额控制的还行，现在已经-15%了，而且我是每天定投的，大概买了6000块钱。至于文中说的可能会在这个基础上再跌50%，那真的是巧合了，只是当时比较谨慎，但是按照现在这个走势来看，这也不是什么不可能的事。中概股这一次的下跌，除了杀估值，另一个重要因素就是昨天美国刚通过的外国公司问责法案，这个也是上半年下跌的导火索。最近该法案的通过算是利空彻底落地，后续如何真正实施静候观察。风险点有哪些站在这个时间点再次梳理一下中概股，之前的时候我说中概股有两个风险，政策风险和估值风险，目前估值风险基本上可以忽略，但是政策风险依然巨大。政策影响是诸多的，来源多方面，目前看有些领域的政策已经持续落地，但是更多的政策可能还在路上，目前来说，估值风险不大，但是政策带来的情绪杀依然需要谨慎。从去年开始中概股暴涨，一年十几倍的股票无数，但是从年初开始的暴跌，将这个上涨几乎抹平，甚至继续向下杀。目前的下跌，已经不是基本面能够解释的了，但是基本面好的公司可能会比较抗跌，不过由于基本面好的股票会有比较多的境外投资者，这些人的抛压会抵消基本面的坚挺，因此表现在股价走势上，就是无差别下杀。可以抄底吗从稳健的角度来说，别抄底，即使跌了这么多，我觉得抄底依然是件盈亏比极度不划算的事，炒股这","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a445af8644216eb458db81e775fd5a9","width":"688","height":"336"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dddd9e7ec0058f0b9352b88c09571f8","width":"688","height":"382"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b9d4fbc84c235299c8ee250f24f9a7","width":"688","height":"523"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608969195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":608873730,"gmtCreate":1638694300964,"gmtModify":1638694300964,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"建设性完了就大跌？","listText":"建设性完了就大跌？","text":"建设性完了就大跌？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608873730","repostId":"1189641031","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189641031","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638694184,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189641031?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-05 16:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"证监会：与美国SEC等监管机构对重点事项推进合作取得积极进展","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189641031","media":"证监会","summary":"对中美审计监管合作以及下一步境内企业赴美上市前景有何看法？在中美审计监管合作方面，近期，中国证监会与美国SEC、美国公众公司会计监督委员会等监管机构就解决合作中存在的问题进行了坦诚、有建设性的沟通，对一些重点事项推进合作方面取得了积极进展。","content":"<p><b>证监会新闻发言人答记者问</b></p>\n<p>问：近日，美国证监会（SEC）公布了《外国公司问责法》实施细则，个别企业宣布启动自美退市工作，引发市场广泛关注。请问证监会对此有何评论？对中美审计监管合作以及下一步境内企业赴美上市前景有何看法？</p>\n<p>答：我们注意到了这些情况，也关注到市场对中美审计监管合作及下一步境内企业赴美上市前景的关切。中国证监会和相关监管部门始终对企业选择境外上市地持开放态度，充分尊重企业依法合规自主选择上市地。近期，个别媒体报道中国监管部门将禁止协议控制（VIE）架构企业赴境外上市，推动在美上市中国企业退市，这完全是误解误读。据我们了解，一些境内企业正在积极与境内外监管机构沟通，推进赴美上市事宜。</p>\n<p>在中美审计监管合作方面，近期，中国证监会与美国SEC、美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）等监管机构就解决合作中存在的问题进行了坦诚、有建设性的沟通，对一些重点事项推进合作方面取得了积极进展。我们相信，只要双方监管机构继续秉持这种相互尊重、理性务实和专业互信的原则开展对话磋商，就一定能够找到双方都接受的合作路径。事实上，中美双方在中概股审计监管领域一直在开展合作，也曾通过试点检查探索有效的合作方式，为双方打下了较好的合作基础。但是，美国一些政治势力近年来把资本市场监管政治化，无端打压在美上市中国企业，胁迫中国企业退市，这不仅有悖于市场经济的基本原则和法治理念，也损害了全球投资者利益和美国资本市场的国际地位，是一种“多输”的做法，对谁都没有好处。在资本市场高度全球化的今天，更需要监管部门以务实、理性、专业的方式处理审计监管合作问题，迫使在美上市中国企业退市不应成为一个负责任的政策选项。</p>\n<p>一段时间以来，中国有关监管部门出台了一系列促进平台经济规范发展的政策措施，其主要目的是规制垄断行为，保护中小企业权益和数据安全、个人信息安全，消灭金融监管真空，防止资本无序扩张。针对这些新问题、新考验，各国监管部门也正在尝试采取不同的监管措施，促进平台经济更加健康、更可持续的发展。因此，中国政府出台的相关政策，并非对特定行业或民营企业的打压，也与企业境外上市活动没有必然联系。</p>\n<p>在落实相关监管措施的过程中，中国有关监管部门将坚定不移推进改革开放，坚持“两个毫不动摇”，统筹处理好投资者、企业、监管等各方关系，进一步提高政策措施的透明度和可预期性。中国证监会也将继续与美国监管同行保持坦诚沟通，争取尽快解决审计监管合作中的遗留问题。</p>","source":"lsy1573813229493","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n证监会：与美国SEC等监管机构对重点事项推进合作取得积极进展\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-05 16:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/newsite/zjhxwfb/xwdd/202112/t20211205_409376.html><strong>证监会</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>证监会新闻发言人答记者问\n问：近日，美国证监会（SEC）公布了《外国公司问责法》实施细则，个别企业宣布启动自美退市工作，引发市场广泛关注。请问证监会对此有何评论？对中美审计监管合作以及下一步境内企业赴美上市前景有何看法？\n答：我们注意到了这些情况，也关注到市场对中美审计监管合作及下一步境内企业赴美上市前景的关切。中国证监会和相关监管部门始终对企业选择境外上市地持开放态度，充分尊重企业依法合规自主...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/newsite/zjhxwfb/xwdd/202112/t20211205_409376.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c8a0ca564b9a8c73d2a909079be602","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/newsite/zjhxwfb/xwdd/202112/t20211205_409376.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189641031","content_text":"证监会新闻发言人答记者问\n问：近日，美国证监会（SEC）公布了《外国公司问责法》实施细则，个别企业宣布启动自美退市工作，引发市场广泛关注。请问证监会对此有何评论？对中美审计监管合作以及下一步境内企业赴美上市前景有何看法？\n答：我们注意到了这些情况，也关注到市场对中美审计监管合作及下一步境内企业赴美上市前景的关切。中国证监会和相关监管部门始终对企业选择境外上市地持开放态度，充分尊重企业依法合规自主选择上市地。近期，个别媒体报道中国监管部门将禁止协议控制（VIE）架构企业赴境外上市，推动在美上市中国企业退市，这完全是误解误读。据我们了解，一些境内企业正在积极与境内外监管机构沟通，推进赴美上市事宜。\n在中美审计监管合作方面，近期，中国证监会与美国SEC、美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）等监管机构就解决合作中存在的问题进行了坦诚、有建设性的沟通，对一些重点事项推进合作方面取得了积极进展。我们相信，只要双方监管机构继续秉持这种相互尊重、理性务实和专业互信的原则开展对话磋商，就一定能够找到双方都接受的合作路径。事实上，中美双方在中概股审计监管领域一直在开展合作，也曾通过试点检查探索有效的合作方式，为双方打下了较好的合作基础。但是，美国一些政治势力近年来把资本市场监管政治化，无端打压在美上市中国企业，胁迫中国企业退市，这不仅有悖于市场经济的基本原则和法治理念，也损害了全球投资者利益和美国资本市场的国际地位，是一种“多输”的做法，对谁都没有好处。在资本市场高度全球化的今天，更需要监管部门以务实、理性、专业的方式处理审计监管合作问题，迫使在美上市中国企业退市不应成为一个负责任的政策选项。\n一段时间以来，中国有关监管部门出台了一系列促进平台经济规范发展的政策措施，其主要目的是规制垄断行为，保护中小企业权益和数据安全、个人信息安全，消灭金融监管真空，防止资本无序扩张。针对这些新问题、新考验，各国监管部门也正在尝试采取不同的监管措施，促进平台经济更加健康、更可持续的发展。因此，中国政府出台的相关政策，并非对特定行业或民营企业的打压，也与企业境外上市活动没有必然联系。\n在落实相关监管措施的过程中，中国有关监管部门将坚定不移推进改革开放，坚持“两个毫不动摇”，统筹处理好投资者、企业、监管等各方关系，进一步提高政策措施的透明度和可预期性。中国证监会也将继续与美国监管同行保持坦诚沟通，争取尽快解决审计监管合作中的遗留问题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535877875442784,"gmtCreate":1771850447452,"gmtModify":1771850449753,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535877875442784","repostId":"535688562308024","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":535688562308024,"gmtCreate":1771804227148,"gmtModify":1771804608049,"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556673506813374","authorIdStr":"3556673506813374"},"themes":[],"title":"【谋周记】不想天天盯盘，如何稳拿年化10%的“收租”收益？（2026年第08周 | 总第258期）","htmlText":"前段时间有一位会员朋友在群里问我：“谋老师，我不想天天看盘，也不想受那种动不动20-30% 的大起大落。我就是想找个地方把钱放着，稳稳地拿个年化10%的收益，这种好事有吗？” 这个需求代表了大多数“投资人”的心声：既想要股市的长线红利，又想要像收房租一样的现金流，还得心理压力小。 在美股市场，实现年化10%确实有路。但我们要先打破一个迷思：收益不是凭空产生的。今天我们就把 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEPQ\">$JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPYI\">$NEOS S&amp;P 500 High Income ETF(SPYI)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPIQ\">$GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF(GPIQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a> 拆开了、揉碎了比一比，看看如何构建你的“收租神器”。 一、 逻辑拆解：你的“租金”从哪来？ 我们要明白，在股市里拿钱，无非两种方式： 赚公司成长的钱： 股价从100块涨到120块，你赚的是Delta（资本增值）。 赚期权买家的钱： 你持有股票，同时卖出一张“看涨期权”给别人。别人给你一笔权利金，换取未来以固定价格买你股票的权利。这笔权利金，就是你的 Yield（现金流租金）。 传统的 QQQ 和 SPY 纯粹靠第一种；而我们今天要聊的 JEPQ、GPIQ、SPYI，则是用一部分上涨潜力，换取了当下的现金。而 SCH","listText":"前段时间有一位会员朋友在群里问我：“谋老师，我不想天天看盘，也不想受那种动不动20-30% 的大起大落。我就是想找个地方把钱放着，稳稳地拿个年化10%的收益，这种好事有吗？” 这个需求代表了大多数“投资人”的心声：既想要股市的长线红利，又想要像收房租一样的现金流，还得心理压力小。 在美股市场，实现年化10%确实有路。但我们要先打破一个迷思：收益不是凭空产生的。今天我们就把 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEPQ\">$JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPYI\">$NEOS S&amp;P 500 High Income ETF(SPYI)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPIQ\">$GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF(GPIQ)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a> 拆开了、揉碎了比一比，看看如何构建你的“收租神器”。 一、 逻辑拆解：你的“租金”从哪来？ 我们要明白，在股市里拿钱，无非两种方式： 赚公司成长的钱： 股价从100块涨到120块，你赚的是Delta（资本增值）。 赚期权买家的钱： 你持有股票，同时卖出一张“看涨期权”给别人。别人给你一笔权利金，换取未来以固定价格买你股票的权利。这笔权利金，就是你的 Yield（现金流租金）。 传统的 QQQ 和 SPY 纯粹靠第一种；而我们今天要聊的 JEPQ、GPIQ、SPYI，则是用一部分上涨潜力，换取了当下的现金。而 SCH","text":"前段时间有一位会员朋友在群里问我：“谋老师，我不想天天看盘，也不想受那种动不动20-30% 的大起大落。我就是想找个地方把钱放着，稳稳地拿个年化10%的收益，这种好事有吗？” 这个需求代表了大多数“投资人”的心声：既想要股市的长线红利，又想要像收房租一样的现金流，还得心理压力小。 在美股市场，实现年化10%确实有路。但我们要先打破一个迷思：收益不是凭空产生的。今天我们就把 $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ)$ 、 $NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF(SPYI)$ 、 $GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF(GPIQ)$ 、 $Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$ 拆开了、揉碎了比一比，看看如何构建你的“收租神器”。 一、 逻辑拆解：你的“租金”从哪来？ 我们要明白，在股市里拿钱，无非两种方式： 赚公司成长的钱： 股价从100块涨到120块，你赚的是Delta（资本增值）。 赚期权买家的钱： 你持有股票，同时卖出一张“看涨期权”给别人。别人给你一笔权利金，换取未来以固定价格买你股票的权利。这笔权利金，就是你的 Yield（现金流租金）。 传统的 QQQ 和 SPY 纯粹靠第一种；而我们今天要聊的 JEPQ、GPIQ、SPYI，则是用一部分上涨潜力，换取了当下的现金。而 SCH","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1612f01ac279a32e9ccf49a58b35ae","width":"1791","height":"807"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535688562308024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533979234088472,"gmtCreate":1771385109962,"gmtModify":1771385112215,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪里看到的？","listText":"哪里看到的？","text":"哪里看到的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533979234088472","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 09:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 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USD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612049231","content_text":"CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。减持苹果，增持伯克希尔在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。与此同时，作为防御性资产的伯克希尔B 获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。此外，段永平还增持了谷歌、拼多多，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头阿斯麦（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"MACW.SI":0.6,"CORD":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"CWVX":0.6,"CRWG":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"CRWU":0.6,"CRWD":1.87,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPL":1.91}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533971527865888,"gmtCreate":1771385096427,"gmtModify":1771385098423,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533971527865888","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 09:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 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分手、腾讯限制未成年人打游戏时间这种级别的事，那真的没啥大不了的，抄之；但这次：红头文件内容会伤及公司的收入根本，且在带宽成本、渠道成本等不变的情况下，高利润率的游戏业务会以“杠杆”的方式加倍影响整体的Margin。假如真的实施，会肉眼可见地影响估值。我自己的模型估计，对腾讯利润率的影响可能有中个位数，对网易利润率的影响可能高至中十位数。尤其是网易，诱导性太强，对渠道、头部大客户的依赖很高，每一项条款都正中下怀。我甚至怀疑红头文件的作者，是一位被网易游戏“残害”过的网瘾少年（后转型考公上岸）。对腾讯来说，第一时间加码回购至10亿（一般最多4亿），股价勉强托至275；如果没有回购，结合大股东的抛售，跌破260不在话下。那么，现在抄底的投资者要赌什么？1、赌超跌反弹。这纯粹就是情绪上的踩点，无你是用技术派，还是量化指标，这种抄底往往是极短期、目标空间相对较小的一种抄底，比如在265抄腾讯，280就可以拍拍屁股走人，但一般不会想着回到消息前的310。2、赌文件内容不会真正落地。这有点像在赌收购案失败，博高收益的小概率事件。虽说是意见稿，但是并没有通不过的先例。只是根据这次没有跟大公司沟通的情况来看，后续落地存在一定概率（稍高一些，但仍是小概率事件）的细则修改，但大方向依然还是行业规范。这就是一种真正的反转抄底，目标价可能至少","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8adb42c93367a21f88abbf805d37c78","width":"1452","height":"729"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d30b3b25bd8444de5ac78fbab82b557","width":"1405","height":"735"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b56407507ba498a8fb0a84e9a3f3ed9","width":"1470","height":"751"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256253139513392","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"vote":{"id":3021,"gmtBegin":1703568726979,"gmtEnd":1704259911648,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"你会选择抄底腾讯or网易吗？","choices":[{"id":10985,"sort":1,"name":"冷眼旁观","userSize":47,"voted":false},{"id":10986,"sort":2,"name":"正股大抄","userSize":25,"voted":false},{"id":10987,"sort":3,"name":"期权博弈","userSize":25,"voted":false},{"id":10988,"sort":4,"name":"只抄腾讯，不抄猪","userSize":53,"voted":false},{"id":10989,"sort":5,"name":"只抄网易，不抄鹅","userSize":27,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626247193,"gmtCreate":1674288429312,"gmtModify":1674288431038,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"半导体自由周期","listText":"半导体自由周期","text":"半导体自由周期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626247193","repostId":"626901437","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":626901437,"gmtCreate":1673604241130,"gmtModify":1673604289237,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"美股大跌，我却从阿斯麦身上赚了56%！","htmlText":"自去年10月份以来，美股表现最好的板块非半导体行业莫属了！ 这个结论看起来十分突兀，了解的人知道，半导体行业自2022年初就开始进入下行周期了，相关概念股那是大暴跌啊，比如英伟达一度从最高点下跌69%，可谓是相当惨烈。 业绩上，英伟达上一季的营收下滑了16.5%，预计Q4的下降幅度更大。 即使是地表最强的科技股台积电，刚刚发布的数据也不太妙，一来是去年四季度的收入环比下滑，终结了之前连续11个季度环比增长的记录，二来是今年一季度台积电的收入预计将同比下滑。 根据半导体行业的朋友介绍，说目前业内砍单严重，建议远离。 但看股价，无论是英伟达还是台积电，都已经明显见底，我持有的阿斯麦甚至已经涨到了652美元，较最低点涨了80%。 半导体的走势明显强于纳斯达克指数，所以，半导体已经开始走牛了。 截止昨日收盘，我持有的阿斯麦已经盈利56%了： 这个盈利水平，对于持有不到一年、没有使用任何杠杆来说已经相当不错了，叠加阿斯麦将于1月25日美股盘前发布财报，是时候聊聊要不要获利了结了。 先来说说我抄底阿斯麦的理由。 半导体这个行业，产业链比较长，分工很明确，阿斯麦属于半导体设备，做光刻机，能量产EUV的，目前只有阿斯麦，处于垄断地位。 下游的苹果、英伟达、台积电、AMD虽然也是好公司，甚至达到某种垄断地位，但相比阿斯麦，还是有竞争对手的存在，比如三星之于台积电、华为之于苹果，而阿斯麦没有对手。 所以，下注阿斯麦，就是下注整个半导体行业的未来，我抄底的价格是421美元，当时阿斯麦经过大幅下跌，市盈率估值来到30PE，回到历史合理估值范围。 如今，经过大幅上涨之后，阿斯麦的市盈率来到了43倍，略高于过去10年的估值水平： 从估值上看，阿斯麦继续提升则又让股价产生泡沫，那能否通过业绩增长来消化估值呢？ 三季报中，管理层对Q4的业绩指引是营收在61-66亿欧元之间，取中间值计算，则营收同比增速为2","listText":"自去年10月份以来，美股表现最好的板块非半导体行业莫属了！ 这个结论看起来十分突兀，了解的人知道，半导体行业自2022年初就开始进入下行周期了，相关概念股那是大暴跌啊，比如英伟达一度从最高点下跌69%，可谓是相当惨烈。 业绩上，英伟达上一季的营收下滑了16.5%，预计Q4的下降幅度更大。 即使是地表最强的科技股台积电，刚刚发布的数据也不太妙，一来是去年四季度的收入环比下滑，终结了之前连续11个季度环比增长的记录，二来是今年一季度台积电的收入预计将同比下滑。 根据半导体行业的朋友介绍，说目前业内砍单严重，建议远离。 但看股价，无论是英伟达还是台积电，都已经明显见底，我持有的阿斯麦甚至已经涨到了652美元，较最低点涨了80%。 半导体的走势明显强于纳斯达克指数，所以，半导体已经开始走牛了。 截止昨日收盘，我持有的阿斯麦已经盈利56%了： 这个盈利水平，对于持有不到一年、没有使用任何杠杆来说已经相当不错了，叠加阿斯麦将于1月25日美股盘前发布财报，是时候聊聊要不要获利了结了。 先来说说我抄底阿斯麦的理由。 半导体这个行业，产业链比较长，分工很明确，阿斯麦属于半导体设备，做光刻机，能量产EUV的，目前只有阿斯麦，处于垄断地位。 下游的苹果、英伟达、台积电、AMD虽然也是好公司，甚至达到某种垄断地位，但相比阿斯麦，还是有竞争对手的存在，比如三星之于台积电、华为之于苹果，而阿斯麦没有对手。 所以，下注阿斯麦，就是下注整个半导体行业的未来，我抄底的价格是421美元，当时阿斯麦经过大幅下跌，市盈率估值来到30PE，回到历史合理估值范围。 如今，经过大幅上涨之后，阿斯麦的市盈率来到了43倍，略高于过去10年的估值水平： 从估值上看，阿斯麦继续提升则又让股价产生泡沫，那能否通过业绩增长来消化估值呢？ 三季报中，管理层对Q4的业绩指引是营收在61-66亿欧元之间，取中间值计算，则营收同比增速为2","text":"自去年10月份以来，美股表现最好的板块非半导体行业莫属了！ 这个结论看起来十分突兀，了解的人知道，半导体行业自2022年初就开始进入下行周期了，相关概念股那是大暴跌啊，比如英伟达一度从最高点下跌69%，可谓是相当惨烈。 业绩上，英伟达上一季的营收下滑了16.5%，预计Q4的下降幅度更大。 即使是地表最强的科技股台积电，刚刚发布的数据也不太妙，一来是去年四季度的收入环比下滑，终结了之前连续11个季度环比增长的记录，二来是今年一季度台积电的收入预计将同比下滑。 根据半导体行业的朋友介绍，说目前业内砍单严重，建议远离。 但看股价，无论是英伟达还是台积电，都已经明显见底，我持有的阿斯麦甚至已经涨到了652美元，较最低点涨了80%。 半导体的走势明显强于纳斯达克指数，所以，半导体已经开始走牛了。 截止昨日收盘，我持有的阿斯麦已经盈利56%了： 这个盈利水平，对于持有不到一年、没有使用任何杠杆来说已经相当不错了，叠加阿斯麦将于1月25日美股盘前发布财报，是时候聊聊要不要获利了结了。 先来说说我抄底阿斯麦的理由。 半导体这个行业，产业链比较长，分工很明确，阿斯麦属于半导体设备，做光刻机，能量产EUV的，目前只有阿斯麦，处于垄断地位。 下游的苹果、英伟达、台积电、AMD虽然也是好公司，甚至达到某种垄断地位，但相比阿斯麦，还是有竞争对手的存在，比如三星之于台积电、华为之于苹果，而阿斯麦没有对手。 所以，下注阿斯麦，就是下注整个半导体行业的未来，我抄底的价格是421美元，当时阿斯麦经过大幅下跌，市盈率估值来到30PE，回到历史合理估值范围。 如今，经过大幅上涨之后，阿斯麦的市盈率来到了43倍，略高于过去10年的估值水平： 从估值上看，阿斯麦继续提升则又让股价产生泡沫，那能否通过业绩增长来消化估值呢？ 三季报中，管理层对Q4的业绩指引是营收在61-66亿欧元之间，取中间值计算，则营收同比增速为2","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df23d0170887f0d5947a1c0ea0aa2e5","width":"632","height":"288"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1016019229f906d4c4e09079315a18","width":"632","height":"304"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e4b165c130945e9431d071fc9f80c9","width":"632","height":"324"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626901437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626243211,"gmtCreate":1674274958833,"gmtModify":1674274960568,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626243211","repostId":"626836497","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":626836497,"gmtCreate":1674001800000,"gmtModify":1674007365264,"author":{"id":"3487914694550623","authorId":"3487914694550623","name":"博实","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0894701efa2a180d5aa10da0b9e94d5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487914694550623","authorIdStr":"3487914694550623"},"themes":[],"title":"复盘腾讯从300下跌至200，是如何思考和加仓的","htmlText":"写作本文，并不是想证明自己有多厉害。因为在腾讯持续下跌过程中，自己也情绪有波动，且越下跌还是情绪上越是害怕的。 同时，虽然现在腾讯上涨至370，看似博实是赚钱了，但不能因为赚钱了就说明投资思考和行为一定是正确的、可复制的。这就像腾讯从300跌至200过程中，持续加仓却持续亏钱，也不能证明投资思考和行为一定是错误的。 当前的总结，其实并不能完全代表真正200-300对腾讯的客观、理性的真实想法，这只能算是事后复盘总结。如果想了解博实在彼时彼刻真实的状态，可以翻看从腾讯300跌至200过程中博实撰写的文章。这些文章会放在本文最后的延伸阅读中。 博实真正的交易记录是这样的： 2022年7月18日，卖出茅台10%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价320。 9月5日，4.56卖出邮储银行7%仓位，303。9月7日买入腾讯均价303。 10月12日，卖出同仁堂国药4.5%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价249。 单看以上三笔交易，博实大概加仓了21.5%仓位的腾讯，因为茅台那笔仓位最大，最终的均价肯定是偏高的，应该在280-300左右。具体就不算了，反正均价肯定接近300了。 另外，博实之所以会卖出茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药，然后去买入腾讯，证明博实已经没有足够的现金去买腾讯了，只能通过卖出其他公司买入腾讯。所以，大概率博实之前是持有一定仓位的腾讯的。所以，均价实际上比之前计算的还是要高一些的。 为什么卖出其他仓位，买入腾讯？ 既然能持有茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药5%-10%的仓位，已经算比较大的，肯定是经过一定的研究并比较看好这些公司的预期收益的。 买入腾讯并卖出三家公司的原因，是在充分对比分析300以下的腾讯和茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药未来3-5年的发展，尤其是分析这几家公司未来3-5年产生的可自由分配的净利润规模以后，结合公司当前的市值，认为腾讯的预期收益会比这几家公司更高。 博实的价值判断准确么？","listText":"写作本文，并不是想证明自己有多厉害。因为在腾讯持续下跌过程中，自己也情绪有波动，且越下跌还是情绪上越是害怕的。 同时，虽然现在腾讯上涨至370，看似博实是赚钱了，但不能因为赚钱了就说明投资思考和行为一定是正确的、可复制的。这就像腾讯从300跌至200过程中，持续加仓却持续亏钱，也不能证明投资思考和行为一定是错误的。 当前的总结，其实并不能完全代表真正200-300对腾讯的客观、理性的真实想法，这只能算是事后复盘总结。如果想了解博实在彼时彼刻真实的状态，可以翻看从腾讯300跌至200过程中博实撰写的文章。这些文章会放在本文最后的延伸阅读中。 博实真正的交易记录是这样的： 2022年7月18日，卖出茅台10%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价320。 9月5日，4.56卖出邮储银行7%仓位，303。9月7日买入腾讯均价303。 10月12日，卖出同仁堂国药4.5%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价249。 单看以上三笔交易，博实大概加仓了21.5%仓位的腾讯，因为茅台那笔仓位最大，最终的均价肯定是偏高的，应该在280-300左右。具体就不算了，反正均价肯定接近300了。 另外，博实之所以会卖出茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药，然后去买入腾讯，证明博实已经没有足够的现金去买腾讯了，只能通过卖出其他公司买入腾讯。所以，大概率博实之前是持有一定仓位的腾讯的。所以，均价实际上比之前计算的还是要高一些的。 为什么卖出其他仓位，买入腾讯？ 既然能持有茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药5%-10%的仓位，已经算比较大的，肯定是经过一定的研究并比较看好这些公司的预期收益的。 买入腾讯并卖出三家公司的原因，是在充分对比分析300以下的腾讯和茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药未来3-5年的发展，尤其是分析这几家公司未来3-5年产生的可自由分配的净利润规模以后，结合公司当前的市值，认为腾讯的预期收益会比这几家公司更高。 博实的价值判断准确么？","text":"写作本文，并不是想证明自己有多厉害。因为在腾讯持续下跌过程中，自己也情绪有波动，且越下跌还是情绪上越是害怕的。 同时，虽然现在腾讯上涨至370，看似博实是赚钱了，但不能因为赚钱了就说明投资思考和行为一定是正确的、可复制的。这就像腾讯从300跌至200过程中，持续加仓却持续亏钱，也不能证明投资思考和行为一定是错误的。 当前的总结，其实并不能完全代表真正200-300对腾讯的客观、理性的真实想法，这只能算是事后复盘总结。如果想了解博实在彼时彼刻真实的状态，可以翻看从腾讯300跌至200过程中博实撰写的文章。这些文章会放在本文最后的延伸阅读中。 博实真正的交易记录是这样的： 2022年7月18日，卖出茅台10%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价320。 9月5日，4.56卖出邮储银行7%仓位，303。9月7日买入腾讯均价303。 10月12日，卖出同仁堂国药4.5%仓位。当日买入腾讯均价249。 单看以上三笔交易，博实大概加仓了21.5%仓位的腾讯，因为茅台那笔仓位最大，最终的均价肯定是偏高的，应该在280-300左右。具体就不算了，反正均价肯定接近300了。 另外，博实之所以会卖出茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药，然后去买入腾讯，证明博实已经没有足够的现金去买腾讯了，只能通过卖出其他公司买入腾讯。所以，大概率博实之前是持有一定仓位的腾讯的。所以，均价实际上比之前计算的还是要高一些的。 为什么卖出其他仓位，买入腾讯？ 既然能持有茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药5%-10%的仓位，已经算比较大的，肯定是经过一定的研究并比较看好这些公司的预期收益的。 买入腾讯并卖出三家公司的原因，是在充分对比分析300以下的腾讯和茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药未来3-5年的发展，尤其是分析这几家公司未来3-5年产生的可自由分配的净利润规模以后，结合公司当前的市值，认为腾讯的预期收益会比这几家公司更高。 博实的价值判断准确么？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9cecd3f5bd24af4a583dbe2d716337a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626836497","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628723660,"gmtCreate":1673503352650,"gmtModify":1673503354794,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628723660","repostId":"628467239","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628467239,"gmtCreate":1673425210721,"gmtModify":1673425238987,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯翻倍，走还是留？","htmlText":"港股这波反弹让人目瞪口呆，恒指一口气涨了49%，股王腾讯更是完成翻倍壮举！ 遥想2个月前，港股还是一片哀嚎，腾讯一度跌破200港币，段永平、唐朝等大V被粉丝骂的体无完肤，谁能想到，牛熊转换如此剧烈！ 当腾讯都从底部翻倍，一个现实的问题是：走还是留？ 从技术面来看，翻倍后的腾讯累计了大量的获利盘，抄底资金有足够的动力获利了结，而当前接近380港币的价格，也恰好来到了压力位： 从基本面来看，按照2021年的净利润计算，腾讯目前的市盈率仅13.6倍，对于一家社交巨头来说并不贵。 但是，如何给腾讯估值争议颇大。 拿市盈率为例，计算方法是市值/净利润，腾讯2021年的净利润中，包含大量的其他收益，如处置投资公司收益，也有股权价值变动损益，这两类利润可持续性较差，且不稳定。 因此，如果和经营利润合并计算市盈率，腾讯估值被人为的“低估”。而如果拿“扣非”净利润计算，腾讯当前的静态市盈率高达39倍： 当然，其他收益中有的项目也能带来真金白银流入，完全不给估值是不合理的，但给多少的市盈率，则一千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特。 因此，市场也常用市销率来评估腾讯估值的高低。 2019年，腾讯的市销率均值在7.5倍，目前为5.6倍： 2018年后，腾讯估值较高的时候也不过10倍市销率。 展望未来，腾讯能否重回历史均值，与营收增速强相关，业绩增长越快，估值倍数越高，反之同理。 目前，彭博分析师对腾讯2023年的营收预测为6156亿，同比增长11%，低于近年来20%左右的增速： 分析师的预测未必能反应真实的经营结果，毕竟没有人预测到中国会在11月放开疫情管控，更没有人能想到中国仅用一个多月就渡过疫情感染高峰。 从腾讯的业务来看，游戏业务刚刚拿到重磅版号，未来的版号下发有望常态化；广告业务中，腾讯视频号开始发力，券商预计2024年能带来240亿的增量广告收入；金融及企业业务受益于疫情放开，高增长有望恢复。","listText":"港股这波反弹让人目瞪口呆，恒指一口气涨了49%，股王腾讯更是完成翻倍壮举！ 遥想2个月前，港股还是一片哀嚎，腾讯一度跌破200港币，段永平、唐朝等大V被粉丝骂的体无完肤，谁能想到，牛熊转换如此剧烈！ 当腾讯都从底部翻倍，一个现实的问题是：走还是留？ 从技术面来看，翻倍后的腾讯累计了大量的获利盘，抄底资金有足够的动力获利了结，而当前接近380港币的价格，也恰好来到了压力位： 从基本面来看，按照2021年的净利润计算，腾讯目前的市盈率仅13.6倍，对于一家社交巨头来说并不贵。 但是，如何给腾讯估值争议颇大。 拿市盈率为例，计算方法是市值/净利润，腾讯2021年的净利润中，包含大量的其他收益，如处置投资公司收益，也有股权价值变动损益，这两类利润可持续性较差，且不稳定。 因此，如果和经营利润合并计算市盈率，腾讯估值被人为的“低估”。而如果拿“扣非”净利润计算，腾讯当前的静态市盈率高达39倍： 当然，其他收益中有的项目也能带来真金白银流入，完全不给估值是不合理的，但给多少的市盈率，则一千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特。 因此，市场也常用市销率来评估腾讯估值的高低。 2019年，腾讯的市销率均值在7.5倍，目前为5.6倍： 2018年后，腾讯估值较高的时候也不过10倍市销率。 展望未来，腾讯能否重回历史均值，与营收增速强相关，业绩增长越快，估值倍数越高，反之同理。 目前，彭博分析师对腾讯2023年的营收预测为6156亿，同比增长11%，低于近年来20%左右的增速： 分析师的预测未必能反应真实的经营结果，毕竟没有人预测到中国会在11月放开疫情管控，更没有人能想到中国仅用一个多月就渡过疫情感染高峰。 从腾讯的业务来看，游戏业务刚刚拿到重磅版号，未来的版号下发有望常态化；广告业务中，腾讯视频号开始发力，券商预计2024年能带来240亿的增量广告收入；金融及企业业务受益于疫情放开，高增长有望恢复。","text":"港股这波反弹让人目瞪口呆，恒指一口气涨了49%，股王腾讯更是完成翻倍壮举！ 遥想2个月前，港股还是一片哀嚎，腾讯一度跌破200港币，段永平、唐朝等大V被粉丝骂的体无完肤，谁能想到，牛熊转换如此剧烈！ 当腾讯都从底部翻倍，一个现实的问题是：走还是留？ 从技术面来看，翻倍后的腾讯累计了大量的获利盘，抄底资金有足够的动力获利了结，而当前接近380港币的价格，也恰好来到了压力位： 从基本面来看，按照2021年的净利润计算，腾讯目前的市盈率仅13.6倍，对于一家社交巨头来说并不贵。 但是，如何给腾讯估值争议颇大。 拿市盈率为例，计算方法是市值/净利润，腾讯2021年的净利润中，包含大量的其他收益，如处置投资公司收益，也有股权价值变动损益，这两类利润可持续性较差，且不稳定。 因此，如果和经营利润合并计算市盈率，腾讯估值被人为的“低估”。而如果拿“扣非”净利润计算，腾讯当前的静态市盈率高达39倍： 当然，其他收益中有的项目也能带来真金白银流入，完全不给估值是不合理的，但给多少的市盈率，则一千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特。 因此，市场也常用市销率来评估腾讯估值的高低。 2019年，腾讯的市销率均值在7.5倍，目前为5.6倍： 2018年后，腾讯估值较高的时候也不过10倍市销率。 展望未来，腾讯能否重回历史均值，与营收增速强相关，业绩增长越快，估值倍数越高，反之同理。 目前，彭博分析师对腾讯2023年的营收预测为6156亿，同比增长11%，低于近年来20%左右的增速： 分析师的预测未必能反应真实的经营结果，毕竟没有人预测到中国会在11月放开疫情管控，更没有人能想到中国仅用一个多月就渡过疫情感染高峰。 从腾讯的业务来看，游戏业务刚刚拿到重磅版号，未来的版号下发有望常态化；广告业务中，腾讯视频号开始发力，券商预计2024年能带来240亿的增量广告收入；金融及企业业务受益于疫情放开，高增长有望恢复。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa72e6ad214b39f7049b100c536b7c4","width":"632","height":"294"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19616647575cacfe672f048eae1902c4","width":"632","height":"312"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12cc6c4d9c0116ee9f15db37a8f0264a","width":"632","height":"288"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628467239","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683893689,"gmtCreate":1656117546242,"gmtModify":1704864138988,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怎么参与美股 定投？","listText":"怎么参与美股 定投？","text":"怎么参与美股 定投？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683893689","repostId":"683386295","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":683386295,"gmtCreate":1656000847335,"gmtModify":1704863853611,"author":{"id":"3548388348794551","authorId":"3548388348794551","name":"问就是加仓up","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e98ddf789d46c5627f944fc581c0fe9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548388348794551","authorIdStr":"3548388348794551"},"themes":[],"title":"剧烈波动之下，单腿期权的优势正在消失","htmlText":"相信有很多朋友沉迷于特斯拉的期权，尤其是单腿买方玩家，但是最近一段时间开始，玩特斯拉期权的盈亏比开始不断下降。很多人最初玩特斯拉期权，就是因为特斯拉单价高，同时末日期权会有非常高的潜在盈亏比，但是随着最近一个多月股票的大幅波动，特斯拉期权开始变得越来越贵，IV在随着波动持续上升，目前的市场情况之下，买call 或者买put可以赚钱，但是盈亏比例正在越来越低。本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考其实这个现象对于很多股票都适用，个人主要玩的特斯拉比较多，所以就拿特斯拉举例。为啥会出现这样的情况，其实很简单。期权的价格，可以很好的反映市场的预期，而市场的预期对于期权的价格也会产生非常大的影响，比如财报季时，很多股票的期权在出财报之前，期权IV会暴涨，期权价格可能会比平时贵一两倍甚至更多。期权价格的暴涨，往往反映了期权买方的强烈需求，通常意味着即将有大事发生，大量资金开始选择方向。目前的市场正处于这样的状态之下，资金的分歧正在不断加大，有的人在押注通货膨胀不能控制，美国经济衰退，于是大量买入put，有的资金在押注美股触底反弹，开始买call抄底。再加上最近美股的波动剧烈，暴涨之后突然就会暴跌，所以大大提升了投资者的预期，大量资金预期会有大波动发生，比如说议息会议，比如说豹哥讲话，再比如说非农数据，比如说cpi数据，比如说原油库存，现在市场的神经非常敏感，因为每一个细节的信息都有可能被资金无限放大， 所以每个数据的关注度都在不断提升。关注的人越多，参与者越多，预期不断提升，买方力量大于卖方力量，期权价格自然而然的贵了。最近最好克制一下参与期权的参与，除非你有非常高的把握，否则不如玩玩正股，尤其是特斯拉这种参与人数众多的，最近的一些经验来看，如果周五波动超级大，那么第二周的期权会非常贵，然后在第二周连续洗三天，把期权杀个干净，然后在周四或者周五来个","listText":"相信有很多朋友沉迷于特斯拉的期权，尤其是单腿买方玩家，但是最近一段时间开始，玩特斯拉期权的盈亏比开始不断下降。很多人最初玩特斯拉期权，就是因为特斯拉单价高，同时末日期权会有非常高的潜在盈亏比，但是随着最近一个多月股票的大幅波动，特斯拉期权开始变得越来越贵，IV在随着波动持续上升，目前的市场情况之下，买call 或者买put可以赚钱，但是盈亏比例正在越来越低。本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考其实这个现象对于很多股票都适用，个人主要玩的特斯拉比较多，所以就拿特斯拉举例。为啥会出现这样的情况，其实很简单。期权的价格，可以很好的反映市场的预期，而市场的预期对于期权的价格也会产生非常大的影响，比如财报季时，很多股票的期权在出财报之前，期权IV会暴涨，期权价格可能会比平时贵一两倍甚至更多。期权价格的暴涨，往往反映了期权买方的强烈需求，通常意味着即将有大事发生，大量资金开始选择方向。目前的市场正处于这样的状态之下，资金的分歧正在不断加大，有的人在押注通货膨胀不能控制，美国经济衰退，于是大量买入put，有的资金在押注美股触底反弹，开始买call抄底。再加上最近美股的波动剧烈，暴涨之后突然就会暴跌，所以大大提升了投资者的预期，大量资金预期会有大波动发生，比如说议息会议，比如说豹哥讲话，再比如说非农数据，比如说cpi数据，比如说原油库存，现在市场的神经非常敏感，因为每一个细节的信息都有可能被资金无限放大， 所以每个数据的关注度都在不断提升。关注的人越多，参与者越多，预期不断提升，买方力量大于卖方力量，期权价格自然而然的贵了。最近最好克制一下参与期权的参与，除非你有非常高的把握，否则不如玩玩正股，尤其是特斯拉这种参与人数众多的，最近的一些经验来看，如果周五波动超级大，那么第二周的期权会非常贵，然后在第二周连续洗三天，把期权杀个干净，然后在周四或者周五来个","text":"相信有很多朋友沉迷于特斯拉的期权，尤其是单腿买方玩家，但是最近一段时间开始，玩特斯拉期权的盈亏比开始不断下降。很多人最初玩特斯拉期权，就是因为特斯拉单价高，同时末日期权会有非常高的潜在盈亏比，但是随着最近一个多月股票的大幅波动，特斯拉期权开始变得越来越贵，IV在随着波动持续上升，目前的市场情况之下，买call 或者买put可以赚钱，但是盈亏比例正在越来越低。本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考其实这个现象对于很多股票都适用，个人主要玩的特斯拉比较多，所以就拿特斯拉举例。为啥会出现这样的情况，其实很简单。期权的价格，可以很好的反映市场的预期，而市场的预期对于期权的价格也会产生非常大的影响，比如财报季时，很多股票的期权在出财报之前，期权IV会暴涨，期权价格可能会比平时贵一两倍甚至更多。期权价格的暴涨，往往反映了期权买方的强烈需求，通常意味着即将有大事发生，大量资金开始选择方向。目前的市场正处于这样的状态之下，资金的分歧正在不断加大，有的人在押注通货膨胀不能控制，美国经济衰退，于是大量买入put，有的资金在押注美股触底反弹，开始买call抄底。再加上最近美股的波动剧烈，暴涨之后突然就会暴跌，所以大大提升了投资者的预期，大量资金预期会有大波动发生，比如说议息会议，比如说豹哥讲话，再比如说非农数据，比如说cpi数据，比如说原油库存，现在市场的神经非常敏感，因为每一个细节的信息都有可能被资金无限放大， 所以每个数据的关注度都在不断提升。关注的人越多，参与者越多，预期不断提升，买方力量大于卖方力量，期权价格自然而然的贵了。最近最好克制一下参与期权的参与，除非你有非常高的把握，否则不如玩玩正股，尤其是特斯拉这种参与人数众多的，最近的一些经验来看，如果周五波动超级大，那么第二周的期权会非常贵，然后在第二周连续洗三天，把期权杀个干净，然后在周四或者周五来个","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683386295","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615510794,"gmtCreate":1653021841118,"gmtModify":1653021841118,"author":{"id":"3562546455756450","authorId":"3562546455756450","name":"香水百合AUD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1acdb71016590b5d627034eda9b809","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562546455756450","authorIdStr":"3562546455756450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"复盘","listText":"复盘","text":"复盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615510794","repostId":"1118204449","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}