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yihann

yihann

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2025-02-23

$COIN 20250228 320.0 CALL$ 2 x covered call expiring out of the money soon, should be closing this next week, anticipating a bounce in share price off closing around the 50 week/ 200 day moving average. Looking to sell another round of covered calls as these shares were being bought with financing after my 2 x sell puts were being assigned at 300. Using the premiums earned to pay off the interest and lowering the cost basis of the assigned shares. Could potentially pay off the cost of the 200 shares if I'm getting the covered calls out of the money consistently.

2021-05-26

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[比心]

2021-03-19

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$加仓！

2021-04-03

Yes and yes please

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-02-13

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$o.o

2021-04-03

I havent loaded enough TSLA yet [流泪] [难过]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-19

Getting ready to buy [财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-12

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[流泪] 跌多点吧我还没加完

2021-11-05

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$share

2021-10-31

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[爱心]

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Could potentially pay off the cost of the 200 shares if I'm getting the covered calls out of the money consistently.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0757f3e859525da5880b0fc393d84332","width":"1068","height":"1655"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406562532421944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584392559633232","authorId":"3584392559633232","name":"狩兽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce1d06c2a299e2d4b19418ba2fe13fb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3584392559633232","authorIdStr":"3584392559633232"},"content":"这是卖出的看涨期权盈利吗","text":"这是卖出的看涨期权盈利吗","html":"这是卖出的看涨期权盈利吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":846528447,"gmtCreate":1636098620793,"gmtModify":1636098621013,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[比心]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[比心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed638f0ffc361bf8ea208890340b3c8e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136636668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199780665,"gmtCreate":1620734140457,"gmtModify":1634196756413,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BUY BUY BUY","listText":"BUY BUY BUY","text":"BUY BUY BUY","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199780665","repostId":"1136409154","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136409154","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620701484,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136409154?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-11 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Stock Just Pumped the Brakes Today<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票今天刚刚踩刹车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136409154","media":"fool","summary":"What happenedShares ofelectric cartitanTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)had tumbled 4.1% by noon EDT on Monday on a","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p>Shares ofelectric cartitan<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)had tumbled 4.1% by noon EDT on Monday on a bevy of news reports that were at least tangentially related to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Electric Cartitan股票<b>特斯拉</b>截至美国东部时间周一中午，（纳斯达克：TSLA）股价下跌4.1%，原因是一系列至少与该股无关的新闻报道。</blockquote></p><p>So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p>This weekend, Elon Musk hosted<i>Saturday Night Live</i>. That should have been good news for Tesla -- the CEO did manage to plug his company in everything from the opening monologue to multiple skits. But Tesla's competitors didn't let the opportunity go to waste, either.</p><p><blockquote>本周末，埃隆·马斯克主持了<i>周六夜现场</i>这对特斯拉来说应该是个好消息——这位首席执行官确实设法让他的公司参与了从开场独白到多个短剧的所有内容。但特斯拉的竞争对手也没有浪费这个机会。</blockquote></p><p>Over the course of the 90-minute show,<b>Ford Motor Company</b>(NYSE:F),<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY), and Lucid Motor company's<b>Churchill Capital Corp IV</b>(NYSE:CCIV)purchased air time to advertise their competing electric cars to folks tuning in to watch the Tesla CEO.</p><p><blockquote>在90分钟的节目中，<b>福特汽车公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：F），<b>大众汽车</b>（场外交易代码：VWAGY）和Lucid Motor company的<b>丘吉尔资本公司IV</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCIV）购买了播出时间，向收看特斯拉首席执行官讲话的人们宣传他们的竞争电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p>And speaking of competition, in another development that probably should have been good news for Tesla investors, Wedbush Securities took the opportunity to plug Tesla stock this morning. It said that \"underlying consumer EV demand looks robust in China, Europe, with the U.S. playing catchup,\" and that \"April and May demand look strong\" for EVs, reportsTheFly.com. Unfortunately, in the course of recommending once again that investorsbuy Tesla stock, Wedbush also described rising competition from EV rivals such as Ford, Volkswagen, and Lucid. And it highlightedthe chip shortagethat is slowing automotive production around the globe, and reminded investors ofTesla's PR crisis in China!</p><p><blockquote>说到竞争，韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)今天早上借此机会买入了特斯拉股票，这对特斯拉投资者来说可能是个好消息。据TheFly.com报道，该公司表示，“中国、欧洲的潜在消费者电动汽车需求看起来强劲，美国也在迎头赶上”，并且电动汽车“四月和五月的需求看起来强劲”。不幸的是，在再次建议投资者购买特斯拉股票的过程中，韦德布什还描述了来自福特、大众和Lucid等电动汽车竞争对手的日益激烈的竞争。它强调了芯片短缺正在减缓全球汽车生产，并提醒投资者特斯拉在中国的公关危机！</blockquote></p><p>Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p>So what started out as an endorsement of Tesla stock, and a prediction that Tesla shares will go to $1,000, may have ended up just spooking Tesla investors further.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一开始对特斯拉股票的认可，以及特斯拉股价将升至1,000美元的预测，最终可能只会进一步吓坏特斯拉投资者。</blockquote></p><p>The last thing investors want to hear, when investing in a stock that costs 665 times earnings (andapparently not from any earnings selling cars), is more bad news on what was supposed to be a good-news day.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者投资一只市盈率为665倍的股票时（显然不是来自任何销售汽车的收益），投资者最不想听到的就是在本应是好消息的日子里出现更多坏消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Stock Just Pumped the Brakes Today<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票今天刚刚踩刹车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Stock Just Pumped the Brakes Today<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票今天刚刚踩刹车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-11 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p>Shares ofelectric cartitan<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)had tumbled 4.1% by noon EDT on Monday on a bevy of news reports that were at least tangentially related to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Electric Cartitan股票<b>特斯拉</b>截至美国东部时间周一中午，（纳斯达克：TSLA）股价下跌4.1%，原因是一系列至少与该股无关的新闻报道。</blockquote></p><p>So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p>This weekend, Elon Musk hosted<i>Saturday Night Live</i>. That should have been good news for Tesla -- the CEO did manage to plug his company in everything from the opening monologue to multiple skits. But Tesla's competitors didn't let the opportunity go to waste, either.</p><p><blockquote>本周末，埃隆·马斯克主持了<i>周六夜现场</i>这对特斯拉来说应该是个好消息——这位首席执行官确实设法让他的公司参与了从开场独白到多个短剧的所有内容。但特斯拉的竞争对手也没有浪费这个机会。</blockquote></p><p>Over the course of the 90-minute show,<b>Ford Motor Company</b>(NYSE:F),<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY), and Lucid Motor company's<b>Churchill Capital Corp IV</b>(NYSE:CCIV)purchased air time to advertise their competing electric cars to folks tuning in to watch the Tesla CEO.</p><p><blockquote>在90分钟的节目中，<b>福特汽车公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：F），<b>大众汽车</b>（场外交易代码：VWAGY）和Lucid Motor company的<b>丘吉尔资本公司IV</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCIV）购买了播出时间，向收看特斯拉首席执行官讲话的人们宣传他们的竞争电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p>And speaking of competition, in another development that probably should have been good news for Tesla investors, Wedbush Securities took the opportunity to plug Tesla stock this morning. It said that \"underlying consumer EV demand looks robust in China, Europe, with the U.S. playing catchup,\" and that \"April and May demand look strong\" for EVs, reportsTheFly.com. Unfortunately, in the course of recommending once again that investorsbuy Tesla stock, Wedbush also described rising competition from EV rivals such as Ford, Volkswagen, and Lucid. And it highlightedthe chip shortagethat is slowing automotive production around the globe, and reminded investors ofTesla's PR crisis in China!</p><p><blockquote>说到竞争，韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)今天早上借此机会买入了特斯拉股票，这对特斯拉投资者来说可能是个好消息。据TheFly.com报道，该公司表示，“中国、欧洲的潜在消费者电动汽车需求看起来强劲，美国也在迎头赶上”，并且电动汽车“四月和五月的需求看起来强劲”。不幸的是，在再次建议投资者购买特斯拉股票的过程中，韦德布什还描述了来自福特、大众和Lucid等电动汽车竞争对手的日益激烈的竞争。它强调了芯片短缺正在减缓全球汽车生产，并提醒投资者特斯拉在中国的公关危机！</blockquote></p><p>Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p>So what started out as an endorsement of Tesla stock, and a prediction that Tesla shares will go to $1,000, may have ended up just spooking Tesla investors further.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一开始对特斯拉股票的认可，以及特斯拉股价将升至1,000美元的预测，最终可能只会进一步吓坏特斯拉投资者。</blockquote></p><p>The last thing investors want to hear, when investing in a stock that costs 665 times earnings (andapparently not from any earnings selling cars), is more bad news on what was supposed to be a good-news day.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者投资一只市盈率为665倍的股票时（显然不是来自任何销售汽车的收益），投资者最不想听到的就是在本应是好消息的日子里出现更多坏消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/10/why-tesla-stock-just-pumped-the-brakes-today/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","VWAGY":"大众汽车ADR","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/10/why-tesla-stock-just-pumped-the-brakes-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136409154","content_text":"What happenedShares ofelectric cartitanTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)had tumbled 4.1% by noon EDT on Monday on a bevy of news reports that were at least tangentially related to the stock.So whatThis weekend, Elon Musk hostedSaturday Night Live. That should have been good news for Tesla -- the CEO did manage to plug his company in everything from the opening monologue to multiple skits. But Tesla's competitors didn't let the opportunity go to waste, either.Over the course of the 90-minute show,Ford Motor Company(NYSE:F),Volkswagen(OTC:VWAGY), and Lucid Motor company'sChurchill Capital Corp IV(NYSE:CCIV)purchased air time to advertise their competing electric cars to folks tuning in to watch the Tesla CEO.And speaking of competition, in another development that probably should have been good news for Tesla investors, Wedbush Securities took the opportunity to plug Tesla stock this morning. It said that \"underlying consumer EV demand looks robust in China, Europe, with the U.S. playing catchup,\" and that \"April and May demand look strong\" for EVs, reportsTheFly.com. Unfortunately, in the course of recommending once again that investorsbuy Tesla stock, Wedbush also described rising competition from EV rivals such as Ford, Volkswagen, and Lucid. And it highlightedthe chip shortagethat is slowing automotive production around the globe, and reminded investors ofTesla's PR crisis in China!Now whatSo what started out as an endorsement of Tesla stock, and a prediction that Tesla shares will go to $1,000, may have ended up just spooking Tesla investors further.The last thing investors want to hear, when investing in a stock that costs 665 times earnings (andapparently not from any earnings selling cars), is more bad news on what was supposed to be a good-news day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"F":0.9,"VWAGY":0.9,"CCIV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344517959,"gmtCreate":1618415105371,"gmtModify":1634293078681,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niceee, dip somemore pls&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Niceee, dip somemore pls&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Niceee, dip somemore pls [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344517959","repostId":"1186838018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186838018","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618413882,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186838018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electric vehicle stocks were down<blockquote>电动汽车股下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186838018","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 14) Electric vehicle stocks were down. Shares of Nio was down  6.62% to $33.13 and Nio was 3.","content":"<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Electric vehicle stocks were down.&nbsp;Shares of Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;&nbsp;6.62%&nbsp;to&nbsp;$33.13&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;3.14% lower.</p><p><blockquote>（4月14日）电动汽车股下跌。蔚来股价下跌6.62%，至33.13美元，蔚来股价下跌3.14%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4dccabfcd5d058051278d972adbce18\" tg-width=\"294\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features.&nbsp;The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT.&nbsp;Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车周三推出了P5，这是一款具有新自动驾驶功能的轿车。P5配备了所谓的激光雷达，以辅助小鹏的无人驾驶系统XPILOT。小鹏希望缩小与特斯拉的差距，并领先于蔚来和理想汽车等其他竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electric vehicle stocks were down<blockquote>电动汽车股下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectric vehicle stocks were down<blockquote>电动汽车股下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-14 23:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Electric vehicle stocks were down.&nbsp;Shares of Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;&nbsp;6.62%&nbsp;to&nbsp;$33.13&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;3.14% lower.</p><p><blockquote>（4月14日）电动汽车股下跌。蔚来股价下跌6.62%，至33.13美元，蔚来股价下跌3.14%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4dccabfcd5d058051278d972adbce18\" tg-width=\"294\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features.&nbsp;The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT.&nbsp;Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车周三推出了P5，这是一款具有新自动驾驶功能的轿车。P5配备了所谓的激光雷达，以辅助小鹏的无人驾驶系统XPILOT。小鹏希望缩小与特斯拉的差距，并领先于蔚来和理想汽车等其他竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186838018","content_text":"(April 14) Electric vehicle stocks were down. Shares of Nio was down  6.62% to $33.13 and Nio was 3.14% lower.Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features. The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT. Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340534337,"gmtCreate":1617429737429,"gmtModify":1634520986510,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes and yes please","listText":"Yes and yes please","text":"Yes and yes please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340534337","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340534977,"gmtCreate":1617429652599,"gmtModify":1634520986632,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340534977","repostId":"1176602902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176602902","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617366683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176602902?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176602902","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic grow","content":"<p>(April&nbsp;2)&nbsp;Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.</p><p><blockquote>（4月2日）美国劳工部周五报告称，由于强劲的经济增长和积极的疫苗接种工作推动企业加大招聘力度，3月份就业增长以去年夏天以来的最快速度增长。</blockquote></p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.</p><p><blockquote>当月非农就业人数增加91.6万人，失业率降至6%。</blockquote></p><p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.</p><p><blockquote>接受道琼斯调查的经济学家一直预计增加675,000人，失业率为6%。</blockquote></p><p>The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.</p><p><blockquote>该报告发布之际，一系列其他指标表明，随着美国试图摆脱Covid-19大流行的影响，经济增长将更加强劲。在经历了一年的产能减少后，全国各地的州和市继续重新开放。</blockquote></p><p>Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管受到限制，该公司大部分地区的业务活动已恢复到接近正常水平，Jeffries的跟踪显示，业务活动为大流行前水平的93.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.</p><p><blockquote>Homebase的数据显示，过去一个月，员工的工作时间和工作时间都大幅增加，接待和娱乐方面都有显着改善。这些是受打击最严重的行业，但随着政府放松了一些最严厉的活动限制，过去两个月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，制造业正在蓬勃发展，供应管理协会对该行业活动的衡量在3月份达到了1983年底以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员表示，任何加息都将是暂时的，但加息速度加上政府前所未有的刺激措施引发了人们对通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在密切关注就业数据，但政策制定者一再表示，即使最近有所改善，劳动力市场也远未达到推动央行加息的程度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-02 20:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April&nbsp;2)&nbsp;Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.</p><p><blockquote>（4月2日）美国劳工部周五报告称，由于强劲的经济增长和积极的疫苗接种工作推动企业加大招聘力度，3月份就业增长以去年夏天以来的最快速度增长。</blockquote></p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.</p><p><blockquote>当月非农就业人数增加91.6万人，失业率降至6%。</blockquote></p><p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.</p><p><blockquote>接受道琼斯调查的经济学家一直预计增加675,000人，失业率为6%。</blockquote></p><p>The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.</p><p><blockquote>该报告发布之际，一系列其他指标表明，随着美国试图摆脱Covid-19大流行的影响，经济增长将更加强劲。在经历了一年的产能减少后，全国各地的州和市继续重新开放。</blockquote></p><p>Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管受到限制，该公司大部分地区的业务活动已恢复到接近正常水平，Jeffries的跟踪显示，业务活动为大流行前水平的93.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.</p><p><blockquote>Homebase的数据显示，过去一个月，员工的工作时间和工作时间都大幅增加，接待和娱乐方面都有显着改善。这些是受打击最严重的行业，但随着政府放松了一些最严厉的活动限制，过去两个月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，制造业正在蓬勃发展，供应管理协会对该行业活动的衡量在3月份达到了1983年底以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员表示，任何加息都将是暂时的，但加息速度加上政府前所未有的刺激措施引发了人们对通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在密切关注就业数据，但政策制定者一再表示，即使最近有所改善，劳动力市场也远未达到推动央行加息的程度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176602902","content_text":"(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340535516,"gmtCreate":1617429602635,"gmtModify":1634520986996,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I havent loaded enough&nbsp; TSLA yet&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"I havent loaded enough&nbsp; TSLA yet&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","text":"I havent loaded enough TSLA yet [流泪] 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the fk","listText":"Nani the fk","text":"Nani the fk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354080235","repostId":"1193934463","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355010403,"gmtCreate":1617012889602,"gmtModify":1634523148039,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>你越红。。。我越嗨！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>你越红。。。我越嗨！","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$你越红。。。我越嗨！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e1c01d519bf34e128731d767a632ee","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355010403","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358002646,"gmtCreate":1616637530185,"gmtModify":1634524796181,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>预备，计时。。。加仓！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>预备，计时。。。加仓！","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$预备，计时。。。加仓！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f142f553892e9854634795bf05a4be","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358002646","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359055645,"gmtCreate":1616306340587,"gmtModify":1634526397661,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hang on tight fellas&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Hang on tight fellas&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Hang on tight fellas [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359055645","repostId":"2121465511","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2121465511","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616290560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2121465511?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-21 09:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121465511","media":"创业邦","summary":"【ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元】由Cathie Wood管理的Ark Invest Management预计特斯拉股价到2025年前将创下3000美元的...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>\r\n                原标题：ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>设立了新的目标价：3000美元\r\n            </p>\n<div>摘要</div>\n<div>【ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元】由Cathie Wood管理的Ark Invest Management预计特斯拉股价到2025年前将创下3000美元的历史新高 ，远高于现在的655美元。以这个价格计算，根据特斯拉发行在外的股票数量，该公司的市值将接近3万亿美元。Ark还将特斯拉的保险业务添加到模型中，相信该产品可以在未来几年内推广到更多州，利润率超过平均水平。（创业邦）</div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.TSLA&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　由Cathie Wood<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/管理\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">管理</span>的Ark Invest Management预计<span>特斯拉</span><span></span>股价到2025年前将创下3000<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/美元\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">美元</span>的历史新高 ，远高于现在的655美元。以这个<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/价格\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">价格</span>计算，根据<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.TSLA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>发行在外的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/股票\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">股票</span>数量，该<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/公司\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">公司</span>的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/市值\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">市值</span>将接近3万亿美元。Ark还将<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.TSLA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>的<span>保险</span><span></span>业务添加到模型中，相信该<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/产品\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">产品</span>可以在未来几年内推广到更多州，<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/利润\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">利润</span>率超过平均水平。 </p><div></div><p>（文章来源：<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/创业\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">创业</span>邦）</p>\n<p>\r\n                (责任编辑：DF545)\r\n            </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-21 09:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202103211852146228.html><strong>创业邦</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元\r\n            \n摘要\n【ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元】由Cathie Wood管理的Ark Invest Management预计特斯拉股价到2025年前将创下3000美元的历史新高 ，远高于现在的655美元。以这个价格计算，根据特斯拉发行在外的股票数量...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202103211852146228.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4a82a0b3d2d5a95ba411e9bab3f4d9","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202103211852146228.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121465511","content_text":"原标题：ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元\r\n            \n摘要\n【ARK基金创始人Cathie Wood为特斯拉设立了新的目标价：3000美元】由Cathie Wood管理的Ark Invest Management预计特斯拉股价到2025年前将创下3000美元的历史新高 ，远高于现在的655美元。以这个价格计算，根据特斯拉发行在外的股票数量，该公司的市值将接近3万亿美元。Ark还将特斯拉的保险业务添加到模型中，相信该产品可以在未来几年内推广到更多州，利润率超过平均水平。（创业邦）\n　　由Cathie Wood管理的Ark Invest Management预计特斯拉股价到2025年前将创下3000美元的历史新高 ，远高于现在的655美元。以这个价格计算，根据特斯拉发行在外的股票数量，该公司的市值将接近3万亿美元。Ark还将特斯拉的保险业务添加到模型中，相信该产品可以在未来几年内推广到更多州，利润率超过平均水平。 （文章来源：创业邦）\n\r\n                (责任编辑：DF545)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"ARKIU":1,"ARKK":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359080331,"gmtCreate":1616300616623,"gmtModify":1634526427916,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [看涨] [梭哈]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359080331","repostId":"2121146438","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2121146438","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616297507,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2121146438?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-21 11:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"ARK：预计2025年特斯拉(TSLA.US)股价将达3000美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121146438","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，根据ARK Invest对特斯拉估值的最新分析显示，通过Monte Carlo模型测算，到2025年，特斯拉股价将创下3000美元的历史新高。ARK表示：“我们预计，到2025年，特斯拉股价在1500美元或以下的概率为25%，股价在4000美元或以上的概率为25%。”此外，根据ARK分析的牛市情景，该机构预计特斯拉资本效率为8000美元，最大年产量增幅达90%，到2025年，预计该公司60%的车辆采用自动驾驶服务，40%采用由人驾驶叫车服务。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，根据ARK Invest对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)估值的最新分析显示，通过Monte Carlo模型测算，到2025年，特斯拉股价将创下3000美元的历史新高。</p><p>ARK表示：“我们预计，到2025年，特斯拉股价在1500美元或以下的概率为25%，股价在4000美元或以上的概率为25%。”</p><p>此外，根据ARK分析的牛市情景，该机构预计特斯拉资本效率(每辆车的总资本支出)为8000美元，最大年产量增幅达90%，到2025年，预计该公司60%的车辆采用自动驾驶服务，40%采用由人驾驶叫车服务(Human Driven Ride-Hail)。</p><p>ARK分析师Tasha Keeney表示：“2020年，特斯拉的资本支出为31.6亿美元，如果假设汽车产量增长60%，2021年该公司的资本效率将达10330美元。需要注意的是，这个数学可能夸大了增量车辆所需的资本，因为该公司计划将部分资本支出用于自动驾驶数据中心和特斯拉的垂直整合电池工厂等长期项目。例如，在电池日上，特斯拉曾表示，随着时间的推移，其更新的电池化学和制造工艺将减少75%的投资成本。因此，在最新的模型分析上，我们假设在资本效率提高，每辆车的总资本支出下降，再加上该公司一年来的数据增长的情况下，预计特斯拉到2025年的销量将在500万至1000万辆之间。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARK：预计2025年特斯拉(TSLA.US)股价将达3000美元</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/431281.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b78ed0836da119cdb959ac6d3cb8e9","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/431281.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121146438","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，根据ARK Invest对特斯拉(TSLA.US)估值的最新分析显示，通过Monte Carlo模型测算，到2025年，特斯拉股价将创下3000美元的历史新高。ARK表示：“我们预计，到2025年，特斯拉股价在1500美元或以下的概率为25%，股价在4000美元或以上的概率为25%。”此外，根据ARK分析的牛市情景，该机构预计特斯拉资本效率(每辆车的总资本支出)为8000美元，最大年产量增幅达90%，到2025年，预计该公司60%的车辆采用自动驾驶服务，40%采用由人驾驶叫车服务(Human Driven Ride-Hail)。ARK分析师Tasha Keeney表示：“2020年，特斯拉的资本支出为31.6亿美元，如果假设汽车产量增长60%，2021年该公司的资本效率将达10330美元。需要注意的是，这个数学可能夸大了增量车辆所需的资本，因为该公司计划将部分资本支出用于自动驾驶数据中心和特斯拉的垂直整合电池工厂等长期项目。例如，在电池日上，特斯拉曾表示，随着时间的推移，其更新的电池化学和制造工艺将减少75%的投资成本。因此，在最新的模型分析上，我们假设在资本效率提高，每辆车的总资本支出下降，再加上该公司一年来的数据增长的情况下，预计特斯拉到2025年的销量将在500万至1000万辆之间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"ARKK":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327579463,"gmtCreate":1616113518452,"gmtModify":1634527192375,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kidding me&nbsp;","listText":"Kidding me&nbsp;","text":"Kidding 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20250228 320.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250228 320.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;2 x covered call expiring out of the money soon, should be closing this next week, anticipating&nbsp;a bounce in share price off closing around&nbsp;the 50 week/ 200 day moving average.&nbsp; Looking to sell another round of covered calls as these shares were being bought with financing after my 2 x&nbsp;sell puts were being assigned at 300.&nbsp; Using the premiums earned to pay off the interest and lowering&nbsp;the cost basis of the assigned shares. Could potentially pay off the cost of&nbsp;the 200 shares&nbsp;if I'm getting the covered calls out of the money consistently.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/COIN 20250228 320.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250228 320.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;2 x covered call expiring out of the money soon, should be closing this next week, anticipating&nbsp;a bounce in share price off closing around&nbsp;the 50 week/ 200 day moving average.&nbsp; Looking to sell another round of covered calls as these shares were being bought with financing after my 2 x&nbsp;sell puts were being assigned at 300.&nbsp; Using the premiums earned to pay off the interest and lowering&nbsp;the cost basis of the assigned shares. Could potentially pay off the cost of&nbsp;the 200 shares&nbsp;if I'm getting the covered calls out of the money consistently.","text":"$COIN 20250228 320.0 CALL$ 2 x covered call expiring out of the money soon, should be closing this next week, anticipating a bounce in share price off closing around the 50 week/ 200 day moving average. Looking to sell another round of covered calls as these shares were being bought with financing after my 2 x sell puts were being assigned at 300. Using the premiums earned to pay off the interest and lowering the cost basis of the assigned shares. Could potentially pay off the cost of the 200 shares if I'm getting the covered calls out of the money consistently.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0757f3e859525da5880b0fc393d84332","width":"1068","height":"1655"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406562532421944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584392559633232","authorId":"3584392559633232","name":"狩兽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce1d06c2a299e2d4b19418ba2fe13fb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3584392559633232","idStr":"3584392559633232"},"content":"这是卖出的看涨期权盈利吗","text":"这是卖出的看涨期权盈利吗","html":"这是卖出的看涨期权盈利吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136636668,"gmtCreate":1622012589254,"gmtModify":1634184667689,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[比心]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[比心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed638f0ffc361bf8ea208890340b3c8e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136636668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327533166,"gmtCreate":1616108509955,"gmtModify":1634527240777,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>加仓！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>加仓！","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$加仓！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d17c378fa73d1cd1adfff0b5b9012b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327533166","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"47947969931685","authorId":"47947969931685","name":"金钱捕手黄","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1451430172.png","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"47947969931685","idStr":"47947969931685"},"content":"厉害了，赶紧抄底了","text":"厉害了，赶紧抄底了","html":"厉害了，赶紧抄底了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340534337,"gmtCreate":1617429737429,"gmtModify":1634520986510,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes and yes please","listText":"Yes and yes please","text":"Yes and yes please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340534337","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386516764,"gmtCreate":1613202848958,"gmtModify":1634554161033,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>o.o","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>o.o","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$o.o","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8afcf180f22b3fb49b0e56626a2d6d10","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386516764","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340535516,"gmtCreate":1617429602635,"gmtModify":1634520986996,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I havent loaded enough&nbsp; TSLA yet&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"I havent loaded enough&nbsp; TSLA yet&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","text":"I havent loaded enough TSLA yet [流泪] [难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340535516","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327570465,"gmtCreate":1616113442957,"gmtModify":1634527193172,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Getting&nbsp;ready to buy [财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Getting&nbsp;ready to buy [财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Getting ready to buy [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327570465","repostId":"1103812798","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328128452,"gmtCreate":1615507900276,"gmtModify":1703490100920,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;跌多点吧 我还没加完","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;跌多点吧 我还没加完","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[流泪] 跌多点吧 我还没加完","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c553d51ab8ab0553ee04d775cfbd1a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328128452","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846528447,"gmtCreate":1636098620793,"gmtModify":1636098621013,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>share","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>share","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$share","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a4f6957ea330c6498aed75f89e722e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846528447","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840176663,"gmtCreate":1635611717047,"gmtModify":1635611717167,"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"yihann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[爱心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[爱心]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[爱心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb05f18ca7e2f9578d3508cbedc1f0e9","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840176663","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}