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风筝_3343

风筝_3343

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IP属地：江苏

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05-08

哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东

港股期权｜泡泡玛特受段永平加仓大涨，期权成交量罕见登顶；百度集团逆势走强，145港元认购期权居前

2025-12-03

$2倍做多MSTR ETF-T-Rex(MSTU)$ 这也太缺德了，十合一

07-28

都不是一个量级天天讲故事

中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩

2024-04-30

1.市场对它定价太完美了，容不得半点不好的消息。 2.有人还在英伟达上面亏钱被套，不在少数，机构也不少。 3.这时候的英伟达跟2020年的特斯拉特别像，各种利好的解读让其持续拉升，在人们放松警惕时，出其不意大幅度回调，震荡下跌，然后它的竞争对手越来越强，抢占它的市场份额，紧接着各大投行开始下调目标价位

06-09

他拥有的算力和我没有算力的权利相等？

傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》

06-09

唬谁呢？

傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》

05-18

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

神话与隐忧，泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗？

05-18

跟着大哥喝汤啦！

段永平清仓了，风向变了？

05-08

他应该把拼多多买起来

抱歉，原内容已删除

05-08

哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东

泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>也不是的。绝大部分公司都很难有10年以上线性增长的经历。我在小霸王的时候，我们每年100%+增长，但到第7年也断了。(2026.8.20)</p><p><strong>二、关于门店选址：选址能力是越来越强</strong></p><p>网友1：选址确实重要，线下对于我们这种非ip粉有吸引力，庆祝的场景叠加人来疯效应。</p><p>大道：泡泡的选址能力(barging power)是越来越强的，这也是泡泡护城河里面的一条很大的鳄鱼。</p><p>网友2：您刚说泡泡的选址能力，是护城河里的一条大鳄鱼。我理解是商场更愿意给它好位置和好条件。但这看起来像公司做强后的结果，它又是怎么反过来继续加宽护城河的？</p><p>大道：你自己想想？ 如果你是我，你怎么能够抢到他们的生意？我是在很认真地问大家，如果一个有足够资金的公司，想抢泡泡玛特的生意，他能够做什么？(2026.8.19)</p><p>网友3：不知道，但看到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>旗下的大麦开始进入这个行业了。</p><p>大道：说明这个市场空间很大。</p><p>网友4：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">名创优品</a>，到处疯狂开店。</p><p>大道：你对比一下这两家公司的单店营业额和总营业额，利润各项指标看看？有空你也可以看看两家公司门店的区别？(2026.8.20)</p><p><strong>......</strong></p><p>大道：找个好门店不容易，需要很久时间的。先要找到好位置(得有人让出来)，然后要谈判各种条件，然后要装修，然后还……。</p><p>我觉得泡泡官方是肯定想找到足够大的门店的，但实在找不到的情况下，先开个小一点的也没关系，至少能让地主知道你的生意很好，那样的话，他们会很努力帮你找大点儿位置更好的地方的。(2026.8.24)</p><p><strong>三、评价创始人王宁：高度认可其领导力</strong></p><p>网友1：您接触完王宁后对他线下本人有没有什么印象，可以分享下吗？ 因为我了解过各种公开资料里各种人对王宁的看法，一直很好奇他怎么做到这么有魅力让身边的人都愿意追随他。</p><p>网友2：王宁自己说的，领导力来自于做正确的事。王宁带着泡泡玛特做得这么好，已经证明了他的领导力了。</p><p>大道：王宁对领导力的这句描述是非常王宁的，比我强。(2026.8.20)</p><p><strong>四、关于乐园布局：不太可能开太多</strong></p><p>网友：城市乐园什么时候能开到更多的城市呢？珠三角或者长三角地区，以及成都之类的地方会考虑吗？感觉消费者们还是有很大的乐园需求，毕竟中国14亿人，大型的乐园真的好少。</p><p>大道：乐园不太可能开太多的。整个中国开两到三个应该就满了吧？现在北京有一个了，未来上海可能会有一个。再下一个还真不知道会是哪里，也许西南？(2026.8.24)</p><p><strong>五、谈对生意模式理解：潮玩是个很长久的生意</strong></p><p>网友1：对我来说，泡泡玛特的业务没茅台简单，但比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>要简单些，业务简单些更容易理解。只是对个人来说哪个更懂一些，哪个才敢重仓。</p><p>大道：泡泡玛特的生意其实是非常难理解的。我能突然get到这个点和我30多年前就开始玩游戏有很大关系。我觉得大多数人是很难理解这个生意的，但这不影响该喜欢泡泡玛特产品的人们继续喜欢他们的产品。</p><p>网友2：我在游戏里喜欢买皮肤，也很好理解。</p><p>大道：是的，皮肤是个非常好的点，那个也是情绪价值。梦幻里皮肤已经卖了20多年了，到现在好像据说还经常创新高。(2026.8.15)</p><p>网友3：段老师，您是怎么理解泡泡玛特未来现金流会越来越多的？我也喜欢泡泡玛特，但作为投资我不太明白它未来十年二十年是否一直能给不同的人带来快乐...</p><p>我理解的泡泡玛特是给不同的人提供一种稀缺的个性化情绪出口。这种情绪消费是一阵一阵的，今天可能会是泡泡玛特，明天也许是一杯奶茶。</p><p>也许这个例子可能不够恰当，我大概的意思是这种情绪消费有很强的替代性。而且它的营利产出似乎需要持续性正确的投入才可以得到回报。如果没有正确的投入，它的sku种类之多似乎也会是一个问题。</p><p>大道：我就是根据我自己游戏从业的经验，感觉潮玩这类有情绪价值的产品是可以很长久的。泡泡玛特的企业文化和运营能力会在这个行业里非常突出，所以他们会一直很厉害且会越来越厉害的。</p><p>如果不认同第一点，第二点成为投资的理由是不够的。潮玩是个很长久的生意，泡泡玛特会做的很好。(2026.8.16)</p><p>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最新，段永平力挺这家公司 ！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1082532455\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">证券之星 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-25 09:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>今天的内容，我们继续聚焦段永平。</p><p>近期段永平在雪球平台和网友围绕<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>展开多轮交流，内容覆盖很广：既有针对本次中报业绩的回应；也有关乎线下选址能力、创始人领导力、城市乐园扩张边界，以及对生意本质的讨论。</p><p>我们认为，大道言论虽言简意赅，但对企业定性、生意本质的洞察颇为深刻。本期，证星研究院将其近日互动整理如下，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>以下为主要内容：</strong></p><p><strong>一、点评中报业绩：不在乎短期的东西</strong></p><p>网友1：泡泡玛特中报业绩增长不及大众预期。</p><p>主要原因是美洲、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>、欧洲线上销售拉胯(同比减半)，拖累整体业绩。想知道您是怎么想的？国外线上销售业绩恢复难度有多大？</p><p>大道：我不在乎短期的东西。我看了一下财报，觉得蛮好。我不关心大众预期，只关心公司未来会怎么样，不然我凭什么赚钱？(2026.8.20)</p><p>网友2：大道说泡泡玛特的商业模式不是线性增长的，是什么原因呢？</p><p>大道：其实每个公司都不是线性增长的，泡泡玛特规模还不够大，所以比较容易看出来而已。</p><p>nvda也不是线性增长的啊，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>也不是的。绝大部分公司都很难有10年以上线性增长的经历。我在小霸王的时候，我们每年100%+增长，但到第7年也断了。(2026.8.20)</p><p><strong>二、关于门店选址：选址能力是越来越强</strong></p><p>网友1：选址确实重要，线下对于我们这种非ip粉有吸引力，庆祝的场景叠加人来疯效应。</p><p>大道：泡泡的选址能力(barging power)是越来越强的，这也是泡泡护城河里面的一条很大的鳄鱼。</p><p>网友2：您刚说泡泡的选址能力，是护城河里的一条大鳄鱼。我理解是商场更愿意给它好位置和好条件。但这看起来像公司做强后的结果，它又是怎么反过来继续加宽护城河的？</p><p>大道：你自己想想？ 如果你是我，你怎么能够抢到他们的生意？我是在很认真地问大家，如果一个有足够资金的公司，想抢泡泡玛特的生意，他能够做什么？(2026.8.19)</p><p>网友3：不知道，但看到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>旗下的大麦开始进入这个行业了。</p><p>大道：说明这个市场空间很大。</p><p>网友4：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">名创优品</a>，到处疯狂开店。</p><p>大道：你对比一下这两家公司的单店营业额和总营业额，利润各项指标看看？有空你也可以看看两家公司门店的区别？(2026.8.20)</p><p><strong>......</strong></p><p>大道：找个好门店不容易，需要很久时间的。先要找到好位置(得有人让出来)，然后要谈判各种条件，然后要装修，然后还……。</p><p>我觉得泡泡官方是肯定想找到足够大的门店的，但实在找不到的情况下，先开个小一点的也没关系，至少能让地主知道你的生意很好，那样的话，他们会很努力帮你找大点儿位置更好的地方的。(2026.8.24)</p><p><strong>三、评价创始人王宁：高度认可其领导力</strong></p><p>网友1：您接触完王宁后对他线下本人有没有什么印象，可以分享下吗？ 因为我了解过各种公开资料里各种人对王宁的看法，一直很好奇他怎么做到这么有魅力让身边的人都愿意追随他。</p><p>网友2：王宁自己说的，领导力来自于做正确的事。王宁带着泡泡玛特做得这么好，已经证明了他的领导力了。</p><p>大道：王宁对领导力的这句描述是非常王宁的，比我强。(2026.8.20)</p><p><strong>四、关于乐园布局：不太可能开太多</strong></p><p>网友：城市乐园什么时候能开到更多的城市呢？珠三角或者长三角地区，以及成都之类的地方会考虑吗？感觉消费者们还是有很大的乐园需求，毕竟中国14亿人，大型的乐园真的好少。</p><p>大道：乐园不太可能开太多的。整个中国开两到三个应该就满了吧？现在北京有一个了，未来上海可能会有一个。再下一个还真不知道会是哪里，也许西南？(2026.8.24)</p><p><strong>五、谈对生意模式理解：潮玩是个很长久的生意</strong></p><p>网友1：对我来说，泡泡玛特的业务没茅台简单，但比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>要简单些，业务简单些更容易理解。只是对个人来说哪个更懂一些，哪个才敢重仓。</p><p>大道：泡泡玛特的生意其实是非常难理解的。我能突然get到这个点和我30多年前就开始玩游戏有很大关系。我觉得大多数人是很难理解这个生意的，但这不影响该喜欢泡泡玛特产品的人们继续喜欢他们的产品。</p><p>网友2：我在游戏里喜欢买皮肤，也很好理解。</p><p>大道：是的，皮肤是个非常好的点，那个也是情绪价值。梦幻里皮肤已经卖了20多年了，到现在好像据说还经常创新高。(2026.8.15)</p><p>网友3：段老师，您是怎么理解泡泡玛特未来现金流会越来越多的？我也喜欢泡泡玛特，但作为投资我不太明白它未来十年二十年是否一直能给不同的人带来快乐...</p><p>我理解的泡泡玛特是给不同的人提供一种稀缺的个性化情绪出口。这种情绪消费是一阵一阵的，今天可能会是泡泡玛特，明天也许是一杯奶茶。</p><p>也许这个例子可能不够恰当，我大概的意思是这种情绪消费有很强的替代性。而且它的营利产出似乎需要持续性正确的投入才可以得到回报。如果没有正确的投入，它的sku种类之多似乎也会是一个问题。</p><p>大道：我就是根据我自己游戏从业的经验，感觉潮玩这类有情绪价值的产品是可以很长久的。泡泡玛特的企业文化和运营能力会在这个行业里非常突出，所以他们会一直很厉害且会越来越厉害的。</p><p>如果不认同第一点，第二点成为投资的理由是不够的。潮玩是个很长久的生意，泡泡玛特会做的很好。(2026.8.16)</p><p>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" 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Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://focus.stockstar.com/SS2026082500014037.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2662920711","content_text":"今天的内容，我们继续聚焦段永平。近期段永平在雪球平台和网友围绕泡泡玛特展开多轮交流，内容覆盖很广：既有针对本次中报业绩的回应；也有关乎线下选址能力、创始人领导力、城市乐园扩张边界，以及对生意本质的讨论。我们认为，大道言论虽言简意赅，但对企业定性、生意本质的洞察颇为深刻。本期，证星研究院将其近日互动整理如下，分享给大家。以下为主要内容：一、点评中报业绩：不在乎短期的东西网友1：泡泡玛特中报业绩增长不及大众预期。主要原因是美洲、亚太、欧洲线上销售拉胯(同比减半)，拖累整体业绩。想知道您是怎么想的？国外线上销售业绩恢复难度有多大？大道：我不在乎短期的东西。我看了一下财报，觉得蛮好。我不关心大众预期，只关心公司未来会怎么样，不然我凭什么赚钱？(2026.8.20)网友2：大道说泡泡玛特的商业模式不是线性增长的，是什么原因呢？大道：其实每个公司都不是线性增长的，泡泡玛特规模还不够大，所以比较容易看出来而已。nvda也不是线性增长的啊，苹果也不是的。绝大部分公司都很难有10年以上线性增长的经历。我在小霸王的时候，我们每年100%+增长，但到第7年也断了。(2026.8.20)二、关于门店选址：选址能力是越来越强网友1：选址确实重要，线下对于我们这种非ip粉有吸引力，庆祝的场景叠加人来疯效应。大道：泡泡的选址能力(barging power)是越来越强的，这也是泡泡护城河里面的一条很大的鳄鱼。网友2：您刚说泡泡的选址能力，是护城河里的一条大鳄鱼。我理解是商场更愿意给它好位置和好条件。但这看起来像公司做强后的结果，它又是怎么反过来继续加宽护城河的？大道：你自己想想？ 如果你是我，你怎么能够抢到他们的生意？我是在很认真地问大家，如果一个有足够资金的公司，想抢泡泡玛特的生意，他能够做什么？(2026.8.19)网友3：不知道，但看到阿里旗下的大麦开始进入这个行业了。大道：说明这个市场空间很大。网友4：名创优品，到处疯狂开店。大道：你对比一下这两家公司的单店营业额和总营业额，利润各项指标看看？有空你也可以看看两家公司门店的区别？(2026.8.20)......大道：找个好门店不容易，需要很久时间的。先要找到好位置(得有人让出来)，然后要谈判各种条件，然后要装修，然后还……。我觉得泡泡官方是肯定想找到足够大的门店的，但实在找不到的情况下，先开个小一点的也没关系，至少能让地主知道你的生意很好，那样的话，他们会很努力帮你找大点儿位置更好的地方的。(2026.8.24)三、评价创始人王宁：高度认可其领导力网友1：您接触完王宁后对他线下本人有没有什么印象，可以分享下吗？ 因为我了解过各种公开资料里各种人对王宁的看法，一直很好奇他怎么做到这么有魅力让身边的人都愿意追随他。网友2：王宁自己说的，领导力来自于做正确的事。王宁带着泡泡玛特做得这么好，已经证明了他的领导力了。大道：王宁对领导力的这句描述是非常王宁的，比我强。(2026.8.20)四、关于乐园布局：不太可能开太多网友：城市乐园什么时候能开到更多的城市呢？珠三角或者长三角地区，以及成都之类的地方会考虑吗？感觉消费者们还是有很大的乐园需求，毕竟中国14亿人，大型的乐园真的好少。大道：乐园不太可能开太多的。整个中国开两到三个应该就满了吧？现在北京有一个了，未来上海可能会有一个。再下一个还真不知道会是哪里，也许西南？(2026.8.24)五、谈对生意模式理解：潮玩是个很长久的生意网友1：对我来说，泡泡玛特的业务没茅台简单，但比腾讯要简单些，业务简单些更容易理解。只是对个人来说哪个更懂一些，哪个才敢重仓。大道：泡泡玛特的生意其实是非常难理解的。我能突然get到这个点和我30多年前就开始玩游戏有很大关系。我觉得大多数人是很难理解这个生意的，但这不影响该喜欢泡泡玛特产品的人们继续喜欢他们的产品。网友2：我在游戏里喜欢买皮肤，也很好理解。大道：是的，皮肤是个非常好的点，那个也是情绪价值。梦幻里皮肤已经卖了20多年了，到现在好像据说还经常创新高。(2026.8.15)网友3：段老师，您是怎么理解泡泡玛特未来现金流会越来越多的？我也喜欢泡泡玛特，但作为投资我不太明白它未来十年二十年是否一直能给不同的人带来快乐...我理解的泡泡玛特是给不同的人提供一种稀缺的个性化情绪出口。这种情绪消费是一阵一阵的，今天可能会是泡泡玛特，明天也许是一杯奶茶。也许这个例子可能不够恰当，我大概的意思是这种情绪消费有很强的替代性。而且它的营利产出似乎需要持续性正确的投入才可以得到回报。如果没有正确的投入，它的sku种类之多似乎也会是一个问题。大道：我就是根据我自己游戏从业的经验，感觉潮玩这类有情绪价值的产品是可以很长久的。泡泡玛特的企业文化和运营能力会在这个行业里非常突出，所以他们会一直很厉害且会越来越厉害的。如果不认同第一点，第二点成为投资的理由是不够的。潮玩是个很长久的生意，泡泡玛特会做的很好。(2026.8.16)PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.96,"PMRTY":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":597635876205440,"gmtCreate":1786925357637,"gmtModify":1786925359763,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"花一个亿给歩步高打广告呢！站在门外的人赚的很爽啊！","listText":"花一个亿给歩步高打广告呢！站在门外的人赚的很爽啊！","text":"花一个亿给歩步高打广告呢！站在门外的人赚的很爽啊！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597635876205440","repostId":"2659111942","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659111942","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1786693628,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659111942?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-14 15:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"段永平抛出1亿赌局，但斌回应来了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659111942","media":"格隆汇","summary":"持仓又有新变化","content":"<html><body><p>知名投资人段永平，最新动向来了。</p><p>昨日，段永平抛出一个赌注约：为期10年的1亿“赌局”。</p><p>网友向段永平提出建议：能否参考巴菲特当年的十年之约，用一个公开、长达十年的投资赌局，给A股乃至所有投资者上一堂关于时间复利的课：看看在A股，低成本买入好公司并长期持有，10年之后到底能不能跑赢所谓的“聪明钱”？</p><p>段永平真的答应了，以1亿元人民币为赌金，10年为限国内任何基金的投资收益，都无法跑赢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>的表现。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/ac93e-f105bcb8-2e52-44af-975a-1a0a1cd73a21.jpg?guru_height=572&amp;guru_width=885&amp;guru_size=95435\"/></p><p>段永平称：“我赌没人应战，大家可以选择看不见的。”</p><p>对此，多位网友建议但斌应战这场1亿“赌局”。</p><p>8月13日晚，东方港湾董事长但斌发文回应“1亿赌局”。</p><p>但斌表示，国内舆论与市场环境并不适合公开金钱对赌，回想2017年与苏姓教授关于龙头白酒的论战，他当时公开抛出1亿元赌约，最终市场验证其判断正确，但“即便我赢了这场论战，我也一分钱没要”。</p><p>在但斌看来：“无需赌局，无需噱头，时间就是最公平的裁判”。十年之后，私募业绩全部公开可查，高下立判，无需通过一场对赌来定输赢。</p><p>谈及龙头白酒，但斌的态度依然没有改变：只要赤水河的水流淌、中国白酒文化延续不变，它就是中国稀缺的液体金山。</p><p>与此同时，但斌也再次强调，投资需要与时俱进、放眼全球，在人工智能大时代下，半导体等赛道的成长性更强。</p><p>但斌表示，时代在变、产业迭代在加速，坚守核心价值的同时，拥抱AI与半导体的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>红利，才是更完整的长期主义。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/d9d2a-e7d9cb30-2b9a-4d10-b2a3-774d14a4df5b.jpg?guru_height=1222&amp;guru_width=828&amp;guru_size=155823\"/></p><p>虽然这场“十年赌局”目前并没有真正开局，但今年以来，国内投资圈几乎每个月，都会为阿段沸腾一次。</p><p>网友调侃：段永平退休了25年，却活成了2026年最勤奋的投资博主。</p><p>1月，段永平晒出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>14年累计1623%的收益单；</p><p>2月，他松口评价马斯克“产品确实很了不起”；</p><p>3月，他对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>“收回不投资的说法”；</p><p>4月，宣布转变为“王宁的粉丝”，并开始对泡泡玛特小步建仓；</p><p>5月底，他以均价150港元买入泡泡玛特982.32万股，涉资约14.7亿港元，成为仅次于创始人王宁的第二大股东。</p><p>近期，段永平泡泡玛特的持仓又有新变化。</p><p>8月12日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">港交所</a>披露易显示，8月6日，段永平及其控制的H&amp;H International Investment, LLC在泡泡玛特的好仓权益由7393万股增至1.02576亿股，持股比例由5.55%升至7.70%，涉及股份2864.6万股。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fcf10-ddb74f99-00d7-4795-a49e-e3c3283b921e.jpg?guru_height=654&amp;guru_width=905&amp;guru_size=63112\"/></p><p>(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）</p><p>不过，这一次并非直接从二级市场买入股票。结合段永平此前公开谈及的投资方式，这笔交易可能与卖出泡泡玛特看跌期权(put)有关。</p><p>卖出看跌期权后，如果股价跌至约定水平并被行权，卖方需要按照行权价买入股票；如果未被行权，则获得相应权利金。</p><p>就在前几天，“段永平疑似减持泡泡玛特”的争论在社交媒体上引起了广泛关注。</p><p>7月30日，段永平在泡泡玛特的好仓权益从1.02亿股降至7393万股，持股比例从7.65%降至5.55%，权益数量减少约2793万股。</p><p>8月13日，段永平发帖回应：从来就没有直接卖过一股泡泡玛特，但有一部分股票是买完后就直接卖call了的，这个和直接卖put是完全一样的交易。</p><p>段永平坦言，目前泡泡玛特的价位长期看我认为是不贵的，短期不知道，这也是我这么做的内在逻辑，这种做法有可能会让我少赚钱，但也是个比较保守的方法。</p><p>同时他也强调，当年持有的苹果股票，可能80-90%都是put进来的。</p><p>早在7月23日，段永平曾回应投资者提问，表示泡泡玛特10年不会卖：</p><p>“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”</p><p>整体上，段永平对泡泡玛特的操作，有以下几个时间线：</p><p>5月，将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">中国神华</a>全部换仓为泡泡玛特，正式建仓；</p><p>7月6日，增持1059万股，持股比例升至7.65%；</p><p>7月30日，持股比例从7.65%降至5.55%，权益数量减少约2793万股；</p><p>8月6日，权益由7393万股增至1.02576亿股，持股比例由5.55%升至7.70%。</p><p>此前，段永平在社交媒体上透露，他管的投资里，美股主要在苹果，A股主要在茅台，港股主要是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，现在港股加上泡泡玛特。</p><p>从最新披露的机构持仓来看，段永平的投资版图也在发生变化。</p><p>根据美股机构投资者13F持仓披露情况，截至2026年一季度末，段永平管理的H&amp;H 持仓总市值约200.04亿美元，折合人民币约1349亿元。</p><p>从整体持仓情况看，H&amp;H共持有19家公司，包括苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>、英伟达、拼多多等。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/0fe7d-f86959ca-fc1f-4753-a57d-e6a88bca72da.jpg?guru_height=1448&amp;guru_width=1080&amp;guru_size=191560\"/></p><p>与2025年底的14只股票相比，段永平的持股数量明显增多。</p><p>其中，苹果依然是绝对核心，但仓位已经明显下降。</p><p>截至2026年一季度末，段永平的苹果持仓股数约为2895万，持仓市值为73.46亿美元。相较于2025年底，段永平大幅减持苹果341.29万股，苹果所占组合持仓比例从过去的50.3%下降到了36.72%。</p><p>据段永平透露，在巅峰时刻，苹果的持仓占比高达95%，“现在少了不少了”。</p><p>从苹果，到茅台，再到泡泡玛特，以及他正在研究的AI、半导体。表面上看，段永平的投资标的在变化，但底层逻辑似乎也一直没变。</p><p>这或许也是这场“10年赌局”更有意思的地方，在段永平看来，投资最核心的部分究竟是什么？</p><p>从他过往的投资风格看，投资很简单但并不代表容易，需要对商业模式和企业文化有深度的洞见，最终穿越周期的波动。</p><p>至于十年之后，茅台能否跑赢基金，泡泡玛特能走多远，AI又会把世界带向哪里？</p><p>时间，可能才是投资领域里，唯一不需要下注的裁判。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_fund_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平抛出1亿赌局，但斌回应来了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-14 15:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/6079216><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>知名投资人段永平，最新动向来了。昨日，段永平抛出一个赌注约：为期10年的1亿“赌局”。网友向段永平提出建议：能否参考巴菲特当年的十年之约，用一个公开、长达十年的投资赌局，给A股乃至所有投资者上一堂关于时间复利的课：看看在A股，低成本买入好公司并长期持有，10年之后到底能不能跑赢所谓的“聪明钱”？段永平真的答应了，以1亿元人民币为赌金，10年为限国内任何基金的投资收益，都无法跑赢贵州茅台的表现。段...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/6079216\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/3b5c7-1532d18c-8b56-476e-b813-b7638a83330a.jpg?guru_height=3314&guru_width=5496&guru_size=837328","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","HK0000819398.USD":"BLACKROCK PREMIER SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY 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THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/6079216","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659111942","content_text":"知名投资人段永平，最新动向来了。昨日，段永平抛出一个赌注约：为期10年的1亿“赌局”。网友向段永平提出建议：能否参考巴菲特当年的十年之约，用一个公开、长达十年的投资赌局，给A股乃至所有投资者上一堂关于时间复利的课：看看在A股，低成本买入好公司并长期持有，10年之后到底能不能跑赢所谓的“聪明钱”？段永平真的答应了，以1亿元人民币为赌金，10年为限国内任何基金的投资收益，都无法跑赢贵州茅台的表现。段永平称：“我赌没人应战，大家可以选择看不见的。”对此，多位网友建议但斌应战这场1亿“赌局”。8月13日晚，东方港湾董事长但斌发文回应“1亿赌局”。但斌表示，国内舆论与市场环境并不适合公开金钱对赌，回想2017年与苏姓教授关于龙头白酒的论战，他当时公开抛出1亿元赌约，最终市场验证其判断正确，但“即便我赢了这场论战，我也一分钱没要”。在但斌看来：“无需赌局，无需噱头，时间就是最公平的裁判”。十年之后，私募业绩全部公开可查，高下立判，无需通过一场对赌来定输赢。谈及龙头白酒，但斌的态度依然没有改变：只要赤水河的水流淌、中国白酒文化延续不变，它就是中国稀缺的液体金山。与此同时，但斌也再次强调，投资需要与时俱进、放眼全球，在人工智能大时代下，半导体等赛道的成长性更强。但斌表示，时代在变、产业迭代在加速，坚守核心价值的同时，拥抱AI与半导体的新时代红利，才是更完整的长期主义。虽然这场“十年赌局”目前并没有真正开局，但今年以来，国内投资圈几乎每个月，都会为阿段沸腾一次。网友调侃：段永平退休了25年，却活成了2026年最勤奋的投资博主。1月，段永平晒出苹果14年累计1623%的收益单；2月，他松口评价马斯克“产品确实很了不起”；3月，他对泡泡玛特“收回不投资的说法”；4月，宣布转变为“王宁的粉丝”，并开始对泡泡玛特小步建仓；5月底，他以均价150港元买入泡泡玛特982.32万股，涉资约14.7亿港元，成为仅次于创始人王宁的第二大股东。近期，段永平泡泡玛特的持仓又有新变化。8月12日，港交所披露易显示，8月6日，段永平及其控制的H&H International Investment, LLC在泡泡玛特的好仓权益由7393万股增至1.02576亿股，持股比例由5.55%升至7.70%，涉及股份2864.6万股。(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）不过，这一次并非直接从二级市场买入股票。结合段永平此前公开谈及的投资方式，这笔交易可能与卖出泡泡玛特看跌期权(put)有关。卖出看跌期权后，如果股价跌至约定水平并被行权，卖方需要按照行权价买入股票；如果未被行权，则获得相应权利金。就在前几天，“段永平疑似减持泡泡玛特”的争论在社交媒体上引起了广泛关注。7月30日，段永平在泡泡玛特的好仓权益从1.02亿股降至7393万股，持股比例从7.65%降至5.55%，权益数量减少约2793万股。8月13日，段永平发帖回应：从来就没有直接卖过一股泡泡玛特，但有一部分股票是买完后就直接卖call了的，这个和直接卖put是完全一样的交易。段永平坦言，目前泡泡玛特的价位长期看我认为是不贵的，短期不知道，这也是我这么做的内在逻辑，这种做法有可能会让我少赚钱，但也是个比较保守的方法。同时他也强调，当年持有的苹果股票，可能80-90%都是put进来的。早在7月23日，段永平曾回应投资者提问，表示泡泡玛特10年不会卖：“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”整体上，段永平对泡泡玛特的操作，有以下几个时间线：5月，将中国神华全部换仓为泡泡玛特，正式建仓；7月6日，增持1059万股，持股比例升至7.65%；7月30日，持股比例从7.65%降至5.55%，权益数量减少约2793万股；8月6日，权益由7393万股增至1.02576亿股，持股比例由5.55%升至7.70%。此前，段永平在社交媒体上透露，他管的投资里，美股主要在苹果，A股主要在茅台，港股主要是腾讯，现在港股加上泡泡玛特。从最新披露的机构持仓来看，段永平的投资版图也在发生变化。根据美股机构投资者13F持仓披露情况，截至2026年一季度末，段永平管理的H&H 持仓总市值约200.04亿美元，折合人民币约1349亿元。从整体持仓情况看，H&H共持有19家公司，包括苹果、伯克希尔、英伟达、拼多多等。与2025年底的14只股票相比，段永平的持股数量明显增多。其中，苹果依然是绝对核心，但仓位已经明显下降。截至2026年一季度末，段永平的苹果持仓股数约为2895万，持仓市值为73.46亿美元。相较于2025年底，段永平大幅减持苹果341.29万股，苹果所占组合持仓比例从过去的50.3%下降到了36.72%。据段永平透露，在巅峰时刻，苹果的持仓占比高达95%，“现在少了不少了”。从苹果，到茅台，再到泡泡玛特，以及他正在研究的AI、半导体。表面上看，段永平的投资标的在变化，但底层逻辑似乎也一直没变。这或许也是这场“10年赌局”更有意思的地方，在段永平看来，投资最核心的部分究竟是什么？从他过往的投资风格看，投资很简单但并不代表容易，需要对商业模式和企业文化有深度的洞见，最终穿越周期的波动。至于十年之后，茅台能否跑赢基金，泡泡玛特能走多远，AI又会把世界带向哪里？时间，可能才是投资领域里，唯一不需要下注的裁判。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPE":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"AAPL":1.87,"ABFL":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"PMRTY":1.94,"FTEC":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"SAAPLmain":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"VT":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"METV":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"09992":1.94}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":594289406931912,"gmtCreate":1786108350095,"gmtModify":1786108351532,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/594289406931912","repostId":"2657543617","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2657543617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1786098224,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2657543617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-07 18:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SK海力士季度分红2733亿韩元，并研究额外股东回报方案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2657543617","media":"第一财经","summary":"8月7日，SK海力士在一份公告中表示，将向普通股股东派发每股分红375韩元（约人民币1.8元），市价分红率0.02%，总金额为2733.25亿韩元（约人民币13亿元），分红基准日为8月31日，分红计划在基准日起一个月内支付。SK海力士表示，公司正在积极研讨额外的股东回报方案，具体方案预计在第三季度确定并公布。","content":"<div>\n<p>8月7日，SK海力士在一份公告中表示，将向普通股股东派发每股分红375韩元（约人民币1.8元），市价分红率0.02%，总金额为2733.25亿韩元（约人民币13亿元），分红基准日为8月31日，分红计划在基准日起一个月内支付。SK海力士表示，公司正在积极研讨额外的股东回报方案，具体方案预计在第三季度确定并公布。（第一财经记者郑栩彤） （文章来源：第一财经）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608073835335837.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSK海力士季度分红2733亿韩元，并研究额外股东回报方案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-07 18:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608073835335837.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月7日，SK海力士在一份公告中表示，将向普通股股东派发每股分红375韩元（约人民币1.8元），市价分红率0.02%，总金额为2733.25亿韩元（约人民币13亿元），分红基准日为8月31日，分红计划在基准日起一个月内支付。SK海力士表示，公司正在积极研讨额外的股东回报方案，具体方案预计在第三季度确定并公布。（第一财经记者郑栩彤） （文章来源：第一财经）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608073835335837.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MYLD":"Cambria Micro and Small Cap Shareholder Yield ETF","IPKW":"Invesco International BuyBack Achievers ETF","SYLD":"股东总收益美股ETF-Cambria","LCOW":"Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF Aristocrats ETF","SHRY":"First Trust Bloomberg Shareholder Yield ETF","TPFC":"Timothy Plan Free Cash Flow ETF","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","LYLD":"Cambria Large Cap Shareholder Yield ETF","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","SKHYV":"SK海力士-WI","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","STXD":"STRIVE 1000 DIVIDEND GROWTH ETF","TWIO":"Trajan Wealth Income Opportunities ETF","BK4588":"碎股","07709":"南方两倍做多海力士","SKHY":"SK海力士","LGCF":"THEMES US CASH FLOW CHAMPIONS ETF","MLPY":"Morgan Stanley Cushing High Inco","EEMO":"Invesco S&P Emerging Markets Momentum ETF","QDPL":"Pacer Metaurus US Large Cap Dividend Multiplier 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ETF"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608073835335837.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2657543617","content_text":"8月7日，SK海力士在一份公告中表示，将向普通股股东派发每股分红375韩元（约人民币1.8元），市价分红率0.02%，总金额为2733.25亿韩元（约人民币13亿元），分红基准日为8月31日，分红计划在基准日起一个月内支付。SK海力士表示，公司正在积极研讨额外的股东回报方案，具体方案预计在第三季度确定并公布。（第一财经记者郑栩彤） 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-06 09:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p>8月6日，泡泡玛特盘中下跌4.89%，报155.5港元，成交额7.72亿港元。</p><p>消息面上，港交所于8月5日披露，知名投资人段永平管理的H&H International Investment对泡泡玛特的多头持仓比例于7月30日从7.65%降至5.55%，涉及约2793万股，综合交割价格162.50港元。泡泡玛特方面澄清，本次持股比例下降并非二级市场直接抛售减持，而是期权合约履约、按约定交付对应股份所致。段永平亦回应称系\"put expired，部分被call走了\"。尽管各方已作出解释，但由于此前段永平曾公开表示\"10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特\"，持仓骤降2.1个百分点仍对短期市场情绪形成较大压力。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138383964","content_text":"8月6日，泡泡玛特盘中下跌4.89%，报155.5港元，成交额7.72亿港元。消息面上，港交所于8月5日披露，知名投资人段永平管理的H&H International Investment对泡泡玛特的多头持仓比例于7月30日从7.65%降至5.55%，涉及约2793万股，综合交割价格162.50港元。泡泡玛特方面澄清，本次持股比例下降并非二级市场直接抛售减持，而是期权合约履约、按约定交付对应股份所致。段永平亦回应称系\"put expired，部分被call走了\"。尽管各方已作出解释，但由于此前段永平曾公开表示\"10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特\"，持仓骤降2.1个百分点仍对短期市场情绪形成较大压力。（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591583471092016,"gmtCreate":1785397949971,"gmtModify":1785397952238,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"鬼故事天天在市场上讲，软件要崩了的故事就忘了？现在硬件又要崩了，最后是市场要崩了！","listText":"鬼故事天天在市场上讲，软件要崩了的故事就忘了？现在硬件又要崩了，最后是市场要崩了！","text":"鬼故事天天在市场上讲，软件要崩了的故事就忘了？现在硬件又要崩了，最后是市场要崩了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591583471092016","repostId":"2655825248","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655825248","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785396021,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2655825248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 15:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655825248","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场为一份\"不存在的削减\"狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场为一份&#34;不存在的削减&#34;狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一份所有人都觉得超预期的季报。但如果只看数字，你大概率错过了真正重要的东西。</p><h2 id=\"id_1912993924\">一、1750亿的魔术——市场究竟在为什么欢呼？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次季报最剧烈的市场反应，既没出在营收超预期上，也没出在Azure 43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：&#34;FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda324557fcd0f0fb4fd0a4018becad9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"877\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：&#34;除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。&#34;CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将&#34;进一步增长&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上&#34;少了150亿&#34;的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是&#34;未来15年及以后&#34;。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。</p><h2 id=\"id_185330863\">二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/749ebaa2a8a4ec415d2448e5e2ebdb26\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是纳德拉反复说的&#34;cost-to-outcome curve&#34;（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软能，Meta还差得远。</p><h2 id=\"id_1152252603\">三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%</p></li><li><p>营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是&#34;产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产&#34;。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&amp;A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。</p><h2 id=\"id_3778195481\">四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同&#34;主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的&#34;集中度风险&#34;也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，<strong>今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_178010812\">五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺</p></li><li><p>xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI Foundry</p></li><li><p>Mistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成</p></li><li><p>自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%</p></li><li><p>开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的&#34;智能路由&#34;功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。</p><h2 id=\"id_320868946\">六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。</p><h2 id=\"id_1916847007\">七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：&#34;微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，&#34;从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天&#34;。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：&#34;Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。&#34;seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。</p><h2 id=\"id_363638677\">八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非&#34;AI烧钱结束&#34;，而是&#34;AI烧钱可见&#34;——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个正在学会&#34;既有野心又有纪律&#34;的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 15:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场为一份&#34;不存在的削减&#34;狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一份所有人都觉得超预期的季报。但如果只看数字，你大概率错过了真正重要的东西。</p><h2 id=\"id_1912993924\">一、1750亿的魔术——市场究竟在为什么欢呼？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次季报最剧烈的市场反应，既没出在营收超预期上，也没出在Azure 43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：&#34;FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda324557fcd0f0fb4fd0a4018becad9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"877\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：&#34;除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。&#34;CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将&#34;进一步增长&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上&#34;少了150亿&#34;的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是&#34;未来15年及以后&#34;。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。</p><h2 id=\"id_185330863\">二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/749ebaa2a8a4ec415d2448e5e2ebdb26\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是纳德拉反复说的&#34;cost-to-outcome curve&#34;（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软能，Meta还差得远。</p><h2 id=\"id_1152252603\">三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%</p></li><li><p>营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是&#34;产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产&#34;。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&amp;A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。</p><h2 id=\"id_3778195481\">四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同&#34;主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的&#34;集中度风险&#34;也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，<strong>今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_178010812\">五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺</p></li><li><p>xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI Foundry</p></li><li><p>Mistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成</p></li><li><p>自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%</p></li><li><p>开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的&#34;智能路由&#34;功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。</p><h2 id=\"id_320868946\">六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。</p><h2 id=\"id_1916847007\">七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：&#34;微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，&#34;从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天&#34;。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：&#34;Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。&#34;seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。</p><h2 id=\"id_363638677\">八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非&#34;AI烧钱结束&#34;，而是&#34;AI烧钱可见&#34;——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个正在学会&#34;既有野心又有纪律&#34;的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0871640123.AUD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INC \"A8\" (AUD HDG) INC","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","MSFT":"微软","LU0784385840.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A2 USD","LU2433249047.HKD":"THEMATICS META \"R/A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2506951875.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) 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43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：\"FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。\"几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：\"除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。\"CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将\"进一步增长\"。也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上\"少了150亿\"的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是\"未来15年及以后\"。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。这就是纳德拉反复说的\"cost-to-outcome curve\"（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。微软能，Meta还差得远。三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是\"产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产\"。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同\"主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户\"。这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的\"集中度风险\"也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI FoundryMistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的\"智能路由\"功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：\"微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。\"拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，\"从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天\"。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：\"Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。\"seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。这并非\"AI烧钱结束\"，而是\"AI烧钱可见\"——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。一个正在学会\"既有野心又有纪律\"的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OGIG":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"MSFT":1.98,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"MSFL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590653711467176,"gmtCreate":1785204065564,"gmtModify":1785204067871,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"都不是一个量级天天讲故事","listText":"都不是一个量级天天讲故事","text":"都不是一个量级天天讲故事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590653711467176","repostId":"1187931355","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187931355","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785197923,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187931355?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-28 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187931355","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-28 08:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"NVYY":"GraniteShares 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ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187931355","content_text":"周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"WDCX":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"SK":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"07709":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDA":2,"MULL":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"MU":2,"NVDU":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"WDC":2,"ASMU":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"STX":2,"07788":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"SKHY":2,"HYNX":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SNDK":2,"DAMD":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"ASML":2,"NVDG":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"AMD":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586208547201216,"gmtCreate":1784147420299,"gmtModify":1784147422353,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"您提供的信息是一个基于真实人物风格和真实历史事件（Twitter收购案）改编的虚构金融段子。","listText":"您提供的信息是一个基于真实人物风格和真实历史事件（Twitter收购案）改编的虚构金融段子。","text":"您提供的信息是一个基于真实人物风格和真实历史事件（Twitter收购案）改编的虚构金融段子。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586208547201216","repostId":"1199719192","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199719192","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注海外资本市场一手动态","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资观察","id":"1076224072","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922"},"pubTimestamp":1784126251,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199719192?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-15 22:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财经金句：迈克尔·伯里论PayPal价值","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199719192","media":"投资观察","summary":"“60.50美元的价格实在太低了。我不会出售[我的股份]，而且我相信这只是一个开价。”——知名做空者迈克尔·伯里就Stripe与Advent对PayPal的收购要约发表看法。他计算出PayPal的内在价值高达每股115美元。","content":"<p>“60.50美元的价格实在太低了。我不会出售[我的股份]，而且我相信这只是一个开价。”——知名做空者迈克尔·伯里就Stripe与Advent对PayPal的收购要约发表看法。他计算出PayPal的内在价值高达每股115美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财经金句：迈克尔·伯里论PayPal价值</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财经金句：迈克尔·伯里论PayPal价值\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1076224072\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资观察 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-15 22:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“60.50美元的价格实在太低了。我不会出售[我的股份]，而且我相信这只是一个开价。”——知名做空者迈克尔·伯里就Stripe与Advent对PayPal的收购要约发表看法。他计算出PayPal的内在价值高达每股115美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc 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17:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642746600","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。AI平权的意义就在这里。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","content":"<html><body><p><strong>出品 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1077578553\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-09 17:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><strong>出品 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0426417589.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8touD4v5t9y","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642746600","content_text":"出品 | 凤凰网财经《封面》主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。以下内容整理自对话实录：凤凰网财经《封面》： AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？傅盛： 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFT":1.77,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573399613871272,"gmtCreate":1781019784631,"gmtModify":1781021178737,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"唬谁呢？","listText":"唬谁呢？","text":"唬谁呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573399613871272","repostId":"2642746600","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2642746600","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股官方账号，专注让专业更简单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"1077578553","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7"},"pubTimestamp":1780999058,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2642746600?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-09 17:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642746600","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。AI平权的意义就在这里。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","content":"<html><body><p><strong>出品 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0426417589.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8touD4v5t9y","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642746600","content_text":"出品 | 凤凰网财经《封面》主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。以下内容整理自对话实录：凤凰网财经《封面》： AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？傅盛： 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFT":1.77,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565467790947592,"gmtCreate":1779087989320,"gmtModify":1779087991905,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565467790947592","repostId":"2634227824","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2634227824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778457360,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2634227824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-11 07:56","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"神话与隐忧，泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634227824","media":"中国企业家","summary":"泡泡玛特是能持续造血的IP平台，还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商？　　4月30日晚10点，泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在京东和天猫同步开售。　　3月25日，泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单：营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%；经调整净利润130.8亿元，增长284.5%；毛利率72.1%。　　截至5月8日收盘，泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。5月7日，段永平宣布清仓中国神华，全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/300/w550h550/20260511/a5ba-80a15edb55da905a0b8755f282204ec5.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>是能持续造血的IP平台，还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商？</p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">数据分析</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">中央财经大学 王紫炫 王金鑫</font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">赵艺萌 宋秉懋</font></font><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">（王彦超教授研究团队）</font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">文</font></font></font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">《中国企业家》记者 </font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">李艳艳</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">见习</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">编</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">辑</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|</font><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">李原 </font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">编辑</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">何伊凡</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">头图来源</font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|中企图库</font></font></font></p>\n<p>　　一只毛绒精灵，两种极端叙事。</p>\n<p>　　4月30日晚10点，泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱，两个版本各限量999台，均定价5999元。截至开售，京东平台预约人数超6万，开售即罄。</p>\n<p>　　二手市场瞬时沸腾。有媒体报道，得物平台成交价一度冲至20999元。还有购入者直言，冰箱不会插电，就摆在家里的玩具柜旁边。</p>\n<p>　　6天后的5月6日，泡泡玛特创始人、CEO王宁现身一档播客节目，称内部从去年LABUBU火爆时期，就在“理性灭火”。他透露，公司为了防止流量透支，暂停了LABUBU的新品发布、线下营销和多类开店、授权的合作，很多原定2025年推出的产品被推到了2026年。</p>\n<p>　　一脚刹车下去，踩出两种现实。</p>\n<p>　　3月25日，泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单：营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%；经调整净利润130.8亿元，增长284.5%；毛利率72.1%。财报发布当日股价暴跌22.5%，第二天继续下跌10.46%，两个交易日累计跌幅超30%。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/79/w550h329/20260511/9e8e-6f1a649d9b784856be9daeadd9fecc01.jpg\"/></div>\n<p>　　摄影：吴莹</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">截至5月8日收盘，泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。虽近期走势有所修复，但股价较去年8月339.80港元的历史高点，已跌去一半，对应市值蒸发超过2000亿港元。</font></p>\n<p>　　就在市场担忧泡泡玛特的增长神话即将落幕之际，剧情发生戏剧性反转。以价值投资著称的段永平，从3月起，便在“雪球”上力挺泡泡玛特，宣称自己是王宁的粉丝。5月7日，段永平宣布清仓<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">中国神华</a></span><span></span>，全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。</p>\n<p>　　市场的恐慌与段永平逆势出手形成张力对照，也让泡泡玛特的长期价值更值得被深度拆解。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">过去一年，泡泡玛特几乎踩中了所有风口。</font><font>LABUBU进化为全球现象级消费符号，THE MONSTERS系列年营收冲过140亿元，直接拉动公司毛利率突破72%。海外门店一年净增100家，美洲市场收入同比增长748%，TikTok渠道登顶美国销售榜。员工规模破万，公司市值高点突破4200亿港元。</font></p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">但高速运转的机器内部，压力同步累积。</font><font>泡泡玛特库存从15亿元膨胀至54亿元，现金转换周期拉长了近一个月，利润向现金流的转化效率出现下滑。当增速从三位数回落到财报会上王宁口中的“不低于20%”，市场对这家公司的定价逻辑亦被重置。</font></p>\n<p>　　当一台跑车从全速冲刺切到巡航模式，发动机每个异响都会被放大。王宁挥刀向内，与热潮相向而行。他给2025年的公司业绩打90到95分，给组织管理只打了70分。过去一年的业绩增长被他比作“新手开F1”，“只有别人认为你很爽，实际上自己压力很大”，2026年则是“进站维修年”。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/143/w550h393/20260511/fae5-18e98e4beec25a4a0385447370f35e11.png\"/></div>\n<p cms-style=\"legend\">　　王宁  来源：受访者</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论。这期间，王宁还要面临一个更本质的问题：一个组织，如何与高速增长形成的扩张惯性对抗？</font></p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">泡泡玛特到底是一家能持续造血、穿越周期的IP平台，还是一家恰好撞上风口、终将回归平庸的爆款制造商？从财务角度看，真相介于两者之间。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。</font></p>\n<p>　　本文将基于财务视角，从估值逻辑、增长结构、商业模式三个维度，拆解这场价值重估的成因和边界。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/0075-a5d7cd0b7305fbc522d27b30bf8c3c27.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">市场慌了：一个满分答卷，三个不安信号</font></p>\n<p>　　资本市场交易的从来不是过去，是对未来的出价。泡泡玛特3月25日的财报，释放了三个让投资者迅速行动的信号。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">第一个信号，是增速指引的落差。</font></p>\n<p>　　2025年营收增速184.7%，王宁在财报会上给出的2026年增长目标是“不低于20%”。从三位数骤降到20%区间，这个落差直接击穿了泡泡玛特作为成长股的估值基础。</p>\n<p>　　<font>在现金流折现模型的框架下，当市场将高速增长期假设从5年压缩为3~5年、将永续增长率从5%至8%调降至3%至5%，企业估值会发生系统性下移。</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">以泡泡玛特为例，按狂热期参数估算的估值量级可以高达3.8万亿港元，切换至理性假设后降至约2200亿港元。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/744/w550h194/20260511/aa7c-572b3af97bb2637ac75bd9a376ded9cf.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">第二个信号，是371亿元还“差了一口气”。</font></p>\n<p>　　2025年泡泡玛特371.2亿元的实际营收，比市场普遍预期的379.6亿元少了约8亿元。放在平时，这点差距无人在意。但在市场情绪紧绷的节点上，业绩和指引双双不及预期，直接动摇了投资者对盈利能见度的信心。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">第三个信号，是机构在有序撤离。</font></p>\n<p>　　<font>财报发布当日，卖空成交额高达46.3亿港元，创上市以来新高。花旗银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>等外资席位是主要的净卖出方，南向资金却反向持续净买入。多空双方的激烈分歧，说明一个问题：</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">泡泡玛特正站在估值范式切换的十字路口，有人看到泡沫破裂，有人看到错杀机会。</font></p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">整体来看，通过DCF（现金流折现）模型重估企业价值，此次股价回调更像一次迟到的估值与基本面的重新匹配。</font></p>\n<p>　　回顾2025年，泡泡玛特股价从年初的约90港元，最高飙升至339.80港元，最高涨幅超350%。这一涨势背后，是市场对其“IP神话”“全球化突破”“品类升级”的过度乐观预期，推动估值脱离基本面形成溢价。如今的回调，也是市场从狂热期假设向理性调整后，假设切换的必然结果。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/153/w550h403/20260511/1a18-872a01e8c2121492adafecf6c8a4551e.png\"/></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/4004-90567605141b0d78424c2af9e21f4073.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">增长模式“变重”：钱去哪儿了？</font></p>\n<p>　　如果增速指引是导火索，资产负债表和现金流量表细节才是炸药。从财报来看，泡泡玛特的利润表依然光芒万丈，但增长质量已出现边际变化。</p>\n<p>　　<font>存货的膨胀速度最为直观。</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">2025年末存货54.73亿元，较上年同期的15.25亿元增长258.9%，远超184.7%的营收增速。存货周转天数从100.98天拉长到121.63天，周转率从3.56次降到2.96次。货品生产出来的速度，已经快过卖出去的速度。</font></p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特库存已处于高位，一旦核心IP热度回落，库存压力可能从增长推力，转为去化压力乃至减值风险。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/98/w550h348/20260511/3773-8bd0ae3bc4c9828843d0e647357ccb8f.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font>更值得关注的，是</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">利润向现金流的转化效率。2025年净利润127.76亿元，同比增长308.8%。但经营活动现金流净额只有108.65亿元，增速119.3%，明显落后于利润增速。</font><font>经营现金流与净利润的比值，从2024年的1.59倍降至0.85倍。每赚1元账面利润，实际回笼现金从1.59元缩水到0.85元。</font></p>\n<p>　　钱去哪了？</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">泡泡玛特的营运资本变动从正2.46亿元转为负35.50亿元，大量现金被锁定在库存和经营性项目里。</font><font>现金转换周期也拉长了。应收账款周转天数从11.03天降到6.78天，回款效率实际上在改善。但应付账款周转天数从60.49天降到49.86天，意味着公司对上游供应商付款加快，没有用延长账期缓冲现金压力。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/134/w550h384/20260511/c256-d5c0d1e17a4c6109a0afc929a22a21d5.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　这一变化至少说明，在业务快速扩张阶段，公司未能有效借助供应链信用对冲营运资本占用，对自有资金的依赖反而有所增强。</p>\n<p>　　<font>综合下来，公司的现金转换周期从51.52天拉长到了78.55天。</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">对一家处于高增长阶段，且估值高度依赖未来扩张预期的消费公司而言，现金转换周期拉长往往比单纯的利润波动更值得警惕。因为这意味着未来每新增一单位收入，需要占用更多资金去支撑。</font></p>\n<p>　　对于高估值成长股而言，市场最敏感的往往不是利润绝对值，而是利润的兑现质量。利润增长当然会提升估值想象力，但如果现金流跟不上、营运资本持续吞噬现金，那么市场就会开始质疑这种增长究竟能维持多久，又需要付出多大代价。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特2025年财报揭示出增长模式的切换。利润表依然强劲，但资产负债表与现金流量表的压力同步上升。此前市场将其视为高毛利、高周转、高弹性的IP消费公司，随着库存、营运资本和现金转换周期同步承压，市场已转向以“重营运约束”视角审视其增长路径。</p>\n<p>　　综合来看，库存增速超过收入增速，存货周转放缓，营运资本大量消耗现金，现金转换周期延长，经营现金流增速明显落后于净利润增速……这些指标尚未构成财务风险，公司流动比率和速动比率仍处于安全区间，但意味着增长模式在发生变化，泡泡玛特正从“轻盈爆发”转入“负重前行”。</p>\n<p>　　特别是当管理层对增速预期也回归到20%区间，市场估值的锚点就会从利润增速，转向资产周转效率和现金流兑现质量。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/169c-e99199e6199eb44ed567ce626904f7c5.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">等待下一个LABUBU：一个爆款撑起的增长，能走多远？</font></p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特以IP为核心，围绕全球艺术家挖掘、IP孵化运营、消费者触达、潮玩文化推广、关联产业投资整合五个领域，构建了覆盖潮流玩具全产业链的综合运营平台。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/17/w550h267/20260511/ddd0-2b9e9266a95db0651207a1b169151d26.png\"/></div>\n<p cms-style=\"legend\">　　数据来源：公司招股书、业务数据等公开渠道整理</p>\n<p>　　市场对泡泡玛特的定价分歧，本质上是两种商业认知的角力。</p>\n<p>　　看多者在绘制一张IP平台公司的蓝图，认为其已构建起具有高黏性的用户资产与多元IP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>。而看空者则在复盘一部爆款周期股的剧本，认为潮玩消费热度易逝，难以穿越周期。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特的中国内地累计注册会员总数，从2021年末的1958万跃升至2025年末的7258万，5年间增长超过270%。公司的核心销售几乎全部来源于其会员体系，会员贡献销售占比始终保持在90%以上，2025年更是高达93.7%。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">复购率虽然有所波动，但在2025年显著回升至55.7%，显示出泡泡玛特的高度会员黏性和忠诚度。这意味着，泡泡玛特卖的不再是单纯的玩具，而是一张通往年轻世代情感消费的门票。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/799/w550h249/20260511/96a4-c7a9390ddec0b546b20fa642f9d2ed8c.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　具体来看：</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">1.LABUBU：半壁江山与偶然性难题</font></p>\n<p>　　THE MONSTERS系列2025年营收141.61亿元，同比增长365.72%，泡泡玛特第一个百亿级IP就此诞生，它的营收增量贡献占公司全年增量近一半。毛绒产品定价高于传统盲盒，叠加海外商品的更高溢价，直接拉高公司整体毛利率至72.10%。</p>\n<p>　　但爆款的偶然性摆在那里。王宁多次公开表达，LABUBU的全球爆红始于意外明星效应，“意外爆款”难以标准化复制。资本市场始终在审慎怀疑：泡泡玛特能不能持续孵化出下一个同等体量的IP？随着THE MONSTERS 4.0系列发售和供给量放大，部分普通款在二级市场已跌破官方售价，IP的金融炒作属性正在弱化。</p>\n<p>　　今年5月，王宁接受专访时透露，公司在LABUBU热度最高时主动暂停新品发布、线下营销和多类对外合作，“让它自然降温反而能延长生命周期”。这说明，管理层已意识到超级IP热度的脆弱性，选择主动控速。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">2.IP矩阵：一超多强与结构性断层</font></p>\n<p>　　从表面看，泡泡玛特已构建起庞大的IP矩阵。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/77/w550h327/20260511/ff7b-60a299acff41c7929a20012aa1be745f.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　2025年，公司17个IP收入过亿，SKULLPANDA（35.40亿元）、CRYBABY（29.29亿元）、MOLLY（28.97亿元）、DIMOO（27.77亿元）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300256\">星星</a>人（20.56亿元）等6个IP进入20亿俱乐部。</p>\n<p>　　但拆开看，第二梯队离领头羊差得还是太远。SKULLPANDA与LABUBU的营收差距高达106亿元，几乎是一个中型IP的全年体量。一旦LABUBU增速放缓，其他IP难以平滑公司整体增长曲线。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">新老IP的增速分化也让人警醒。2024年签约的星星人，2025年营收暴增1601.81%至20.56亿元，展现了泡泡玛特的IP孵化潜能。但经典IP MOLLY同期增速只有38.41%，显著低于公司整体水平。</font></p>\n<p>　　成熟IP消费群体趋于稳定，新鲜感驱动的增量动能正在衰减。单纯靠形象迭代，能不能维持长期高增长？这是泡泡玛特绕不开的问题。</p>\n<p>　　MOLLY的“先例”可资借鉴。2017年，MOLLY一度占泡泡玛特自有品牌收入89.4%，撑起公司近乎全部增长。随后热度回落，收入占比在2018年降至62.9%，2019年进一步降到32.9%。</p>\n<p>　　2021年高点后，泡泡玛特股价从70多港元一度跌到不足10港元。当前LABUBU的收入占比已近40%，成为新的超级顶流，是否可能会重蹈MOLLY覆辙？一旦其热度褪去，公司能否快速找到下一个接替者？</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">3．海外市场：高基数上的增速换挡</font></p>\n<p>　　海外是2025年泡泡玛特业绩的重要引擎：海外收入162.68亿元，同比增长291.89%，营收占比从31.80%升至43.80%。美洲市场收入68.06亿元，增长748.40%；欧洲市场收入14.51亿元，增长506.30%。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/45/w550h295/20260511/3a61-7a492c3953cef15a07298609ad977931.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　但高基数压力已在2026年第一季度兑现。彭博社援引Bloomberg Second Measure信用卡交易数据，泡泡玛特美国市场1月同比增长130%，2月降至41%，3月同比转负，下降45%。分析师指出，新品集中在1至2月上线，动能快速衰减，消费者对非LABUBU IP产品的接受度仍有限。</p>\n<p>　　高速增长背后，增速边际放缓的隐忧已经显现，尤其是运营复杂性持续提升，海外市场的快速拓店，对供应链响应速度、本地化营销能力、国际化人才储备提出了更高要求。粗放式扩张之后，运营效率的提升将成为泡泡玛特海外业务持续增长的关键。</p>\n<p>　　管理层已着手调整北美策略。据中银国际4月专家访谈纪要，北美团队2025年侧重铺货与开店，产品供给与本地消费偏好存在错配。修复方向包括：签约北美本地艺术家开发产品、提升墨西哥工厂产能覆盖约85%的北美供应、从线上渠道转向旗舰店大店体验驱动品牌认知。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/dbea-47214db0334b7ae88d49aaefbf1ad76e.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">增长与稀缺的悖论：IP能火多久？</font></p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特长期维持的超高毛利率，根源在于情感溢价，而情感溢价的核心支撑是稀缺性。这种稀缺性带来的收藏属性，更接近经济学中的“凡勃伦”商品，稀缺性越强、溢价越高，吸引力反而越大。</p>\n<p>　　回顾近5年业绩，泡泡玛特毛利率从2021年的61.4%攀升至2025年的72.1%，靠的就是头部IP爆款效应和稀缺机制——但商业扩张要求持续扩产放量。</p>\n<p>　　2025年LABUBU月产能提升至5000万件，大规模铺货直接导致二级市场溢价收窄。早期MOLLY隐藏款溢价可达10倍以上，如今多数系列已缩水至2至3倍，部分款式跌破发行价。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论：要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。</font></p>\n<p>　　王宁曾说：“我们的成功不是盲盒的成功，而是商业和艺术平衡的成功。艺术是追求独特的，但商业是追求普遍的，这是一个矛盾，而我们做的事情是尽量做到平衡。”当规模扩张的速度越过平衡的临界点，这个矛盾以前所未有的锐度暴露出来。</p>\n<p>　　潮玩行业有一条规律：IP生命周期普遍走孵化、成长、成熟、衰退的曲线，爆款平均热度周期约18到24个月。绝大多数IP停留在形象驱动、产品变现的浅层，缺乏长期叙事支撑与情感内核，难以穿越周期成为经典。这是行业IP生命周期的“阿喀琉斯之踵”，也是泡泡玛特无法回避的结构性短板。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/786/w550h236/20260511/7a30-d03c552e53ca78a0f4715aeefb46ed6d.png\"/></div>\n<p cms-style=\"legend\">　　图片来源：<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a></span><span></span>研究部</p>\n<p>　　与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>等全球IP巨头成熟的“内容先行、世界观打底”模式相比，泡泡玛特的IP运营路径是“形象出圈、盲盒爆卖、多品类延伸”。消费者对LABUBU、MOLLY们的喜爱，更多停留在视觉和情绪层面，缺少对角色的深度认同。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特显然意识到了这一短板，近年已明显加大内容与场景投入：宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>影业合作，为LABUBU打造真人动画电影。推进POP LAND主题乐园1.5期开业，同时布局小家电、甜品、饰品等多元业态，试图用场景延长IP寿命。</p>\n<p>　　但电影能不能拍好，还是未知数。尤其是LABUBU的爆火，同样依赖设计风格与社交传播，而非基于成熟故事积累，将一个视觉符号转化为能打动大众的银幕故事，难度远超产品迭代。泡泡玛特擅长的是IP工业化孵化、产品落地与渠道销售，在影视编剧、世界观构建、长内容运营上几乎从零起步，内容工业化能力尚待培育。</p>\n<p>　　不过，王宁在近期的专访中给出了不同的解释。他将LABUBU比作“梅西式的体育明星”，不是迪士尼式的影视角色。他认为LABUBU不靠故事驱动，靠的是普世审美形象、高频产品迭代和长期陪伴感。“人们不需要梅西有故事，他站在那里就能让人开心。LABUBU的逻辑是一样的。”</p>\n<p>　　这个定位将泡泡玛特的IP模式与迪士尼做了明确切割：前者走“形象即内容”的体育明星路线，后者走“故事驱动形象”的影视工业路线。哪条路能支撑更长的IP生命周期，目前尚无定论。但至少，这个比喻为理解泡泡玛特的IP模式，提供了一个新刻度。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特的股价重挫，是一次估值范式的切换。市场正在将它从不可预测的爆发式增长股，重新定价为可见度更高的稳健成长股。当增速从三位数回落至20%区间，现金流质量、盈利能力和护城河宽度，将成为更重要的估值定价因子。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">未来，市场对泡泡玛特的关注点将聚焦于三个指标：单一IP营收占比能否降到30%以下，证明平台的抗风险能力；海外单店模型能否交出精细化数据，验证全球化不是“烧钱换增长”；内容建设能否取得实质进展，为IP注入穿越周期的文化内核。</font></p>\n<p>　　“尊重时间，尊重经营。”王宁说过的这八个字，或许正是潮玩产业穿越周期的注脚。迪士尼花了数十年建立起米奇的文化地位，三丽鸥耕耘<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Hello</a> Kitty也超过半个世纪。泡泡玛特从2010年成立到MOLLY破圈用了近8年，LABUBU全球爆火还不到2年。</p>\n<p>　　但现在，市场不只看过去了。经历估值泡沫与理性回归之后，真正具备IP运营能力的公司，终会赢得“时间的复利”。在此之前，市场的每一次热情，都可能被理性预期浇上一盆冷水。</p>\n<p>　　（除特别标注外，文中图表所用原始数据均来自上市公司财报等公开渠道，经整理计算后得出。）</p>\n<p>　　参考资料：</p>\n<p>　　1．李翔．《2026，再访王宁》</p>\n<p>　　2．李翔．《因为独特：泡泡玛特创始人王宁从杂货铺到IP世界的跋涉》，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300788\">中信出版</a></span><span></span>社，2024年10月出版</p>\n<p>　　3．泡泡玛特2025年年度业绩公告（港交所披露）</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>神话与隐忧，泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n神话与隐忧，泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-11 07:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvv9323022.shtml><strong>中国企业家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泡泡玛特是能持续造血的IP平台，还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商？\n　　数据分析|中央财经大学 王紫炫 王金鑫\n　　赵艺萌 宋秉懋（王彦超教授研究团队）\n　　文|《中国企业家》记者 李艳艳\n　　见习编辑|李原 编辑|何伊凡\n　　头图来源|中企图库\n　　一只毛绒精灵，两种极端叙事。\n　　4月30日晚10点，泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在京东和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱，两个版本各限量...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvv9323022.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" 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MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱，两个版本各限量999台，均定价5999元。截至开售，京东平台预约人数超6万，开售即罄。\n　　二手市场瞬时沸腾。有媒体报道，得物平台成交价一度冲至20999元。还有购入者直言，冰箱不会插电，就摆在家里的玩具柜旁边。\n　　6天后的5月6日，泡泡玛特创始人、CEO王宁现身一档播客节目，称内部从去年LABUBU火爆时期，就在“理性灭火”。他透露，公司为了防止流量透支，暂停了LABUBU的新品发布、线下营销和多类开店、授权的合作，很多原定2025年推出的产品被推到了2026年。\n　　一脚刹车下去，踩出两种现实。\n　　3月25日，泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单：营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%；经调整净利润130.8亿元，增长284.5%；毛利率72.1%。财报发布当日股价暴跌22.5%，第二天继续下跌10.46%，两个交易日累计跌幅超30%。\n\n　　摄影：吴莹\n　　截至5月8日收盘，泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。虽近期走势有所修复，但股价较去年8月339.80港元的历史高点，已跌去一半，对应市值蒸发超过2000亿港元。\n　　就在市场担忧泡泡玛特的增长神话即将落幕之际，剧情发生戏剧性反转。以价值投资著称的段永平，从3月起，便在“雪球”上力挺泡泡玛特，宣称自己是王宁的粉丝。5月7日，段永平宣布清仓中国神华，全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。\n　　市场的恐慌与段永平逆势出手形成张力对照，也让泡泡玛特的长期价值更值得被深度拆解。\n　　过去一年，泡泡玛特几乎踩中了所有风口。LABUBU进化为全球现象级消费符号，THE MONSTERS系列年营收冲过140亿元，直接拉动公司毛利率突破72%。海外门店一年净增100家，美洲市场收入同比增长748%，TikTok渠道登顶美国销售榜。员工规模破万，公司市值高点突破4200亿港元。\n　　但高速运转的机器内部，压力同步累积。泡泡玛特库存从15亿元膨胀至54亿元，现金转换周期拉长了近一个月，利润向现金流的转化效率出现下滑。当增速从三位数回落到财报会上王宁口中的“不低于20%”，市场对这家公司的定价逻辑亦被重置。\n　　当一台跑车从全速冲刺切到巡航模式，发动机每个异响都会被放大。王宁挥刀向内，与热潮相向而行。他给2025年的公司业绩打90到95分，给组织管理只打了70分。过去一年的业绩增长被他比作“新手开F1”，“只有别人认为你很爽，实际上自己压力很大”，2026年则是“进站维修年”。\n\n　　王宁  来源：受访者\n　　要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论。这期间，王宁还要面临一个更本质的问题：一个组织，如何与高速增长形成的扩张惯性对抗？\n　　泡泡玛特到底是一家能持续造血、穿越周期的IP平台，还是一家恰好撞上风口、终将回归平庸的爆款制造商？从财务角度看，真相介于两者之间。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。\n　　本文将基于财务视角，从估值逻辑、增长结构、商业模式三个维度，拆解这场价值重估的成因和边界。\n\n　　市场慌了：一个满分答卷，三个不安信号\n　　资本市场交易的从来不是过去，是对未来的出价。泡泡玛特3月25日的财报，释放了三个让投资者迅速行动的信号。\n　　第一个信号，是增速指引的落差。\n　　2025年营收增速184.7%，王宁在财报会上给出的2026年增长目标是“不低于20%”。从三位数骤降到20%区间，这个落差直接击穿了泡泡玛特作为成长股的估值基础。\n　　在现金流折现模型的框架下，当市场将高速增长期假设从5年压缩为3~5年、将永续增长率从5%至8%调降至3%至5%，企业估值会发生系统性下移。以泡泡玛特为例，按狂热期参数估算的估值量级可以高达3.8万亿港元，切换至理性假设后降至约2200亿港元。\n\n　　第二个信号，是371亿元还“差了一口气”。\n　　2025年泡泡玛特371.2亿元的实际营收，比市场普遍预期的379.6亿元少了约8亿元。放在平时，这点差距无人在意。但在市场情绪紧绷的节点上，业绩和指引双双不及预期，直接动摇了投资者对盈利能见度的信心。\n　　第三个信号，是机构在有序撤离。\n　　财报发布当日，卖空成交额高达46.3亿港元，创上市以来新高。花旗银行、国泰君安国际等外资席位是主要的净卖出方，南向资金却反向持续净买入。多空双方的激烈分歧，说明一个问题：泡泡玛特正站在估值范式切换的十字路口，有人看到泡沫破裂，有人看到错杀机会。\n　　整体来看，通过DCF（现金流折现）模型重估企业价值，此次股价回调更像一次迟到的估值与基本面的重新匹配。\n　　回顾2025年，泡泡玛特股价从年初的约90港元，最高飙升至339.80港元，最高涨幅超350%。这一涨势背后，是市场对其“IP神话”“全球化突破”“品类升级”的过度乐观预期，推动估值脱离基本面形成溢价。如今的回调，也是市场从狂热期假设向理性调整后，假设切换的必然结果。\n\n\n　　增长模式“变重”：钱去哪儿了？\n　　如果增速指引是导火索，资产负债表和现金流量表细节才是炸药。从财报来看，泡泡玛特的利润表依然光芒万丈，但增长质量已出现边际变化。\n　　存货的膨胀速度最为直观。2025年末存货54.73亿元，较上年同期的15.25亿元增长258.9%，远超184.7%的营收增速。存货周转天数从100.98天拉长到121.63天，周转率从3.56次降到2.96次。货品生产出来的速度，已经快过卖出去的速度。\n　　泡泡玛特库存已处于高位，一旦核心IP热度回落，库存压力可能从增长推力，转为去化压力乃至减值风险。\n\n　　更值得关注的，是利润向现金流的转化效率。2025年净利润127.76亿元，同比增长308.8%。但经营活动现金流净额只有108.65亿元，增速119.3%，明显落后于利润增速。经营现金流与净利润的比值，从2024年的1.59倍降至0.85倍。每赚1元账面利润，实际回笼现金从1.59元缩水到0.85元。\n　　钱去哪了？\n　　泡泡玛特的营运资本变动从正2.46亿元转为负35.50亿元，大量现金被锁定在库存和经营性项目里。现金转换周期也拉长了。应收账款周转天数从11.03天降到6.78天，回款效率实际上在改善。但应付账款周转天数从60.49天降到49.86天，意味着公司对上游供应商付款加快，没有用延长账期缓冲现金压力。\n\n　　这一变化至少说明，在业务快速扩张阶段，公司未能有效借助供应链信用对冲营运资本占用，对自有资金的依赖反而有所增强。\n　　综合下来，公司的现金转换周期从51.52天拉长到了78.55天。对一家处于高增长阶段，且估值高度依赖未来扩张预期的消费公司而言，现金转换周期拉长往往比单纯的利润波动更值得警惕。因为这意味着未来每新增一单位收入，需要占用更多资金去支撑。\n　　对于高估值成长股而言，市场最敏感的往往不是利润绝对值，而是利润的兑现质量。利润增长当然会提升估值想象力，但如果现金流跟不上、营运资本持续吞噬现金，那么市场就会开始质疑这种增长究竟能维持多久，又需要付出多大代价。\n　　泡泡玛特2025年财报揭示出增长模式的切换。利润表依然强劲，但资产负债表与现金流量表的压力同步上升。此前市场将其视为高毛利、高周转、高弹性的IP消费公司，随着库存、营运资本和现金转换周期同步承压，市场已转向以“重营运约束”视角审视其增长路径。\n　　综合来看，库存增速超过收入增速，存货周转放缓，营运资本大量消耗现金，现金转换周期延长，经营现金流增速明显落后于净利润增速……这些指标尚未构成财务风险，公司流动比率和速动比率仍处于安全区间，但意味着增长模式在发生变化，泡泡玛特正从“轻盈爆发”转入“负重前行”。\n　　特别是当管理层对增速预期也回归到20%区间，市场估值的锚点就会从利润增速，转向资产周转效率和现金流兑现质量。\n\n　　等待下一个LABUBU：一个爆款撑起的增长，能走多远？\n　　泡泡玛特以IP为核心，围绕全球艺术家挖掘、IP孵化运营、消费者触达、潮玩文化推广、关联产业投资整合五个领域，构建了覆盖潮流玩具全产业链的综合运营平台。\n\n　　数据来源：公司招股书、业务数据等公开渠道整理\n　　市场对泡泡玛特的定价分歧，本质上是两种商业认知的角力。\n　　看多者在绘制一张IP平台公司的蓝图，认为其已构建起具有高黏性的用户资产与多元IP矩阵。而看空者则在复盘一部爆款周期股的剧本，认为潮玩消费热度易逝，难以穿越周期。\n　　泡泡玛特的中国内地累计注册会员总数，从2021年末的1958万跃升至2025年末的7258万，5年间增长超过270%。公司的核心销售几乎全部来源于其会员体系，会员贡献销售占比始终保持在90%以上，2025年更是高达93.7%。\n　　复购率虽然有所波动，但在2025年显著回升至55.7%，显示出泡泡玛特的高度会员黏性和忠诚度。这意味着，泡泡玛特卖的不再是单纯的玩具，而是一张通往年轻世代情感消费的门票。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。\n\n　　具体来看：\n　　1.LABUBU：半壁江山与偶然性难题\n　　THE MONSTERS系列2025年营收141.61亿元，同比增长365.72%，泡泡玛特第一个百亿级IP就此诞生，它的营收增量贡献占公司全年增量近一半。毛绒产品定价高于传统盲盒，叠加海外商品的更高溢价，直接拉高公司整体毛利率至72.10%。\n　　但爆款的偶然性摆在那里。王宁多次公开表达，LABUBU的全球爆红始于意外明星效应，“意外爆款”难以标准化复制。资本市场始终在审慎怀疑：泡泡玛特能不能持续孵化出下一个同等体量的IP？随着THE MONSTERS 4.0系列发售和供给量放大，部分普通款在二级市场已跌破官方售价，IP的金融炒作属性正在弱化。\n　　今年5月，王宁接受专访时透露，公司在LABUBU热度最高时主动暂停新品发布、线下营销和多类对外合作，“让它自然降温反而能延长生命周期”。这说明，管理层已意识到超级IP热度的脆弱性，选择主动控速。\n　　2.IP矩阵：一超多强与结构性断层\n　　从表面看，泡泡玛特已构建起庞大的IP矩阵。\n\n　　2025年，公司17个IP收入过亿，SKULLPANDA（35.40亿元）、CRYBABY（29.29亿元）、MOLLY（28.97亿元）、DIMOO（27.77亿元）、星星人（20.56亿元）等6个IP进入20亿俱乐部。\n　　但拆开看，第二梯队离领头羊差得还是太远。SKULLPANDA与LABUBU的营收差距高达106亿元，几乎是一个中型IP的全年体量。一旦LABUBU增速放缓，其他IP难以平滑公司整体增长曲线。\n　　新老IP的增速分化也让人警醒。2024年签约的星星人，2025年营收暴增1601.81%至20.56亿元，展现了泡泡玛特的IP孵化潜能。但经典IP MOLLY同期增速只有38.41%，显著低于公司整体水平。\n　　成熟IP消费群体趋于稳定，新鲜感驱动的增量动能正在衰减。单纯靠形象迭代，能不能维持长期高增长？这是泡泡玛特绕不开的问题。\n　　MOLLY的“先例”可资借鉴。2017年，MOLLY一度占泡泡玛特自有品牌收入89.4%，撑起公司近乎全部增长。随后热度回落，收入占比在2018年降至62.9%，2019年进一步降到32.9%。\n　　2021年高点后，泡泡玛特股价从70多港元一度跌到不足10港元。当前LABUBU的收入占比已近40%，成为新的超级顶流，是否可能会重蹈MOLLY覆辙？一旦其热度褪去，公司能否快速找到下一个接替者？\n　　3．海外市场：高基数上的增速换挡\n　　海外是2025年泡泡玛特业绩的重要引擎：海外收入162.68亿元，同比增长291.89%，营收占比从31.80%升至43.80%。美洲市场收入68.06亿元，增长748.40%；欧洲市场收入14.51亿元，增长506.30%。\n\n　　但高基数压力已在2026年第一季度兑现。彭博社援引Bloomberg Second Measure信用卡交易数据，泡泡玛特美国市场1月同比增长130%，2月降至41%，3月同比转负，下降45%。分析师指出，新品集中在1至2月上线，动能快速衰减，消费者对非LABUBU IP产品的接受度仍有限。\n　　高速增长背后，增速边际放缓的隐忧已经显现，尤其是运营复杂性持续提升，海外市场的快速拓店，对供应链响应速度、本地化营销能力、国际化人才储备提出了更高要求。粗放式扩张之后，运营效率的提升将成为泡泡玛特海外业务持续增长的关键。\n　　管理层已着手调整北美策略。据中银国际4月专家访谈纪要，北美团队2025年侧重铺货与开店，产品供给与本地消费偏好存在错配。修复方向包括：签约北美本地艺术家开发产品、提升墨西哥工厂产能覆盖约85%的北美供应、从线上渠道转向旗舰店大店体验驱动品牌认知。\n\n　　增长与稀缺的悖论：IP能火多久？\n　　泡泡玛特长期维持的超高毛利率，根源在于情感溢价，而情感溢价的核心支撑是稀缺性。这种稀缺性带来的收藏属性，更接近经济学中的“凡勃伦”商品，稀缺性越强、溢价越高，吸引力反而越大。\n　　回顾近5年业绩，泡泡玛特毛利率从2021年的61.4%攀升至2025年的72.1%，靠的就是头部IP爆款效应和稀缺机制——但商业扩张要求持续扩产放量。\n　　2025年LABUBU月产能提升至5000万件，大规模铺货直接导致二级市场溢价收窄。早期MOLLY隐藏款溢价可达10倍以上，如今多数系列已缩水至2至3倍，部分款式跌破发行价。\n　　这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论：要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。\n　　王宁曾说：“我们的成功不是盲盒的成功，而是商业和艺术平衡的成功。艺术是追求独特的，但商业是追求普遍的，这是一个矛盾，而我们做的事情是尽量做到平衡。”当规模扩张的速度越过平衡的临界点，这个矛盾以前所未有的锐度暴露出来。\n　　潮玩行业有一条规律：IP生命周期普遍走孵化、成长、成熟、衰退的曲线，爆款平均热度周期约18到24个月。绝大多数IP停留在形象驱动、产品变现的浅层，缺乏长期叙事支撑与情感内核，难以穿越周期成为经典。这是行业IP生命周期的“阿喀琉斯之踵”，也是泡泡玛特无法回避的结构性短板。\n\n　　图片来源：中金公司研究部\n　　与迪士尼等全球IP巨头成熟的“内容先行、世界观打底”模式相比，泡泡玛特的IP运营路径是“形象出圈、盲盒爆卖、多品类延伸”。消费者对LABUBU、MOLLY们的喜爱，更多停留在视觉和情绪层面，缺少对角色的深度认同。\n　　泡泡玛特显然意识到了这一短板，近年已明显加大内容与场景投入：宣布与索尼影业合作，为LABUBU打造真人动画电影。推进POP LAND主题乐园1.5期开业，同时布局小家电、甜品、饰品等多元业态，试图用场景延长IP寿命。\n　　但电影能不能拍好，还是未知数。尤其是LABUBU的爆火，同样依赖设计风格与社交传播，而非基于成熟故事积累，将一个视觉符号转化为能打动大众的银幕故事，难度远超产品迭代。泡泡玛特擅长的是IP工业化孵化、产品落地与渠道销售，在影视编剧、世界观构建、长内容运营上几乎从零起步，内容工业化能力尚待培育。\n　　不过，王宁在近期的专访中给出了不同的解释。他将LABUBU比作“梅西式的体育明星”，不是迪士尼式的影视角色。他认为LABUBU不靠故事驱动，靠的是普世审美形象、高频产品迭代和长期陪伴感。“人们不需要梅西有故事，他站在那里就能让人开心。LABUBU的逻辑是一样的。”\n　　这个定位将泡泡玛特的IP模式与迪士尼做了明确切割：前者走“形象即内容”的体育明星路线，后者走“故事驱动形象”的影视工业路线。哪条路能支撑更长的IP生命周期，目前尚无定论。但至少，这个比喻为理解泡泡玛特的IP模式，提供了一个新刻度。\n　　泡泡玛特的股价重挫，是一次估值范式的切换。市场正在将它从不可预测的爆发式增长股，重新定价为可见度更高的稳健成长股。当增速从三位数回落至20%区间，现金流质量、盈利能力和护城河宽度，将成为更重要的估值定价因子。\n　　未来，市场对泡泡玛特的关注点将聚焦于三个指标：单一IP营收占比能否降到30%以下，证明平台的抗风险能力；海外单店模型能否交出精细化数据，验证全球化不是“烧钱换增长”；内容建设能否取得实质进展，为IP注入穿越周期的文化内核。\n　　“尊重时间，尊重经营。”王宁说过的这八个字，或许正是潮玩产业穿越周期的注脚。迪士尼花了数十年建立起米奇的文化地位，三丽鸥耕耘Hello Kitty也超过半个世纪。泡泡玛特从2010年成立到MOLLY破圈用了近8年，LABUBU全球爆火还不到2年。\n　　但现在，市场不只看过去了。经历估值泡沫与理性回归之后，真正具备IP运营能力的公司，终会赢得“时间的复利”。在此之前，市场的每一次热情，都可能被理性预期浇上一盆冷水。\n　　（除特别标注外，文中图表所用原始数据均来自上市公司财报等公开渠道，经整理计算后得出。）\n　　参考资料：\n　　1．李翔．《2026，再访王宁》\n　　2．李翔．《因为独特：泡泡玛特创始人王宁从杂货铺到IP世界的跋涉》，中信出版社，2024年10月出版\n　　3．泡泡玛特2025年年度业绩公告（港交所披露）\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PMRTY":1.98,"09992":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565467659580528,"gmtCreate":1779087954373,"gmtModify":1779087956564,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"跟着大哥喝汤啦！","listText":"跟着大哥喝汤啦！","text":"跟着大哥喝汤啦！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565467659580528","repostId":"2634544196","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2634544196","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778399097,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2634544196?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-10 15:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"段永平清仓了，风向变了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634544196","media":"格隆汇","summary":"Right Business、Right People、Right Price","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-2cefcba2-f6dc-4412-8612-3239a7087a64.jpg?guru_height=44&amp;guru_width=1080&amp;guru_size=6688\"/></p><p><span><span><span>最近，段永平在雪球发了个帖子，宣布把自己持有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">中国神华</a>，都换成了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span>这件事网络上讨论得挺火的。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/34176-9057bd92-e595-4e5b-8279-ac58f055862b.png?guru_height=316&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=118463\"/></p><p><span><span>之所以大家都很关注，除了吃瓜，也是因为大佬的高调换仓有时会给标的带来一波明显波动，反应快的可以趁机捞一波涨幅。</span></span></p><p><span><span>今年</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>月</span></span><span><span>21</span></span><span><span>日，段永平高调晒单加仓茅台</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万股，引发市场关注，</span></span><span><span>27</span></span><span><span>日，进一步加仓</span></span><span><span>7.72</span></span><span><span>万股，随后</span></span><span><span>29</span></span><span><span>日公开喊话“</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>年后，回看今天的茅台真不贵”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>结果后面几天，茅台股价从</span></span><span><span>1330</span></span><span><span>元快速涨到</span></span><span><span>1560</span></span><span><span>元，</span><span>短短几天幅度高达</span></span><span><span>17%</span></span><span><span>！</span></span></p><p><span><span>虽然当时茅台大涨原因并不完全因为他，但他也确实是起了重要作用。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这就是大佬的效应。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以近日他清仓神华换成泡泡玛特，大家的关注度也都极高。</span></span></p><p><span><span>帖子发出后，泡泡玛特当天午盘直线拉升，当天收盘涨</span></span><span><span>3.77%</span></span><span><span>，第二天续涨</span></span><span><span>3.64%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>被他清仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>，当天则跌了</span></span><span><span>4.2%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>仅仅半年多以前，他还在说自己根本看不懂泡泡玛特，如今却高调宣布看好。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这背后，有什么值得我们去揣摩学习的呢？</span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><p><span><span>一直以来，段永平的投资框架秉持</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>Right Business</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Right People</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Right Price</span></span><span><span>”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>而从商业模式上说，中国神华相当符合</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>Right Business</span></span><span><span>”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>神华是中国最大的煤炭生产商，也是煤炭行业的全产业链龙头，从煤矿开采到铁路运输到港口到电厂，几乎不需要依赖外部环节。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这种结构让神华在煤炭价格波动中比同行抗跌得多。</span></span></p><p><span><span>从财务上看，</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年神华实现营收</span></span><span><span>2949.16</span></span><span><span>亿元，归母净利润</span></span><span><span>528.49</span></span><span><span>亿元，虽然营收同比下降</span></span><span><span>13.21%</span></span><span><span>，利润下降</span></span><span><span>5.3%</span></span><span><span>，但在煤炭价格整体下行的环境里，这样的表现已经相当不错。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b386e-5e5531ee-8ac1-40df-9760-6eac0a0dbf4a.jpg?guru_height=740&amp;guru_width=864&amp;guru_size=80679\"/></p><p><span><span>更重要的是分红，</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，中国神华全年分红率为</span></span><span><span>78%</span></span><span><span>，公司还承诺</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>2027</span></span><span><span>年分红比例不低于</span></span><span><span>65%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>作为央企，中国神华管理团队稳定，治理规范，从管理层角度，这也是段永平不需要担心人出问题的公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>神华唯一的缺点是，它毕竟活在煤炭行业。</span></span></p><p><span><span>而煤炭是个周期性行业，虽然神华的煤电一体化结构能缓冲周期波动，但它终究没办法完全摆脱煤价的影响。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年神华自产煤平均售价同比下降</span></span><span><span>9.3%</span></span><span><span>，月度长协价格同比下降</span></span><span><span>19.3%</span></span><span><span>，周期下行依然会传导至利润端。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但这并非段永平清仓神华的全部原因。</span></span></p><p><span><span>早从</span></span><span><span>2010</span></span><span><span>年前后，段永平就开始持仓中国神华，中间经历过几次加减，但始终没有彻底清仓。</span></span></p><p><span><span>从公开信息看，中国神华一直是他</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股方面除茅台之外为数不多的持仓。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2024</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>月时段永平还在说，“</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股我没那么懂，目前基本上都是茅台，加一丁丁点神华。”</span></span></p><p><span><span>对于段永平而言，从</span></span><span><span>2010</span></span><span><span>年买入到</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年清仓，这趟投资持有时间超过</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>年，经历过数轮煤价牛熊，回报相当丰厚。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平也说神华是</span></span><span><span>“很好的公司”，赚了钱，还说以后会回来。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这次清仓神华换泡泡玛特，也不是他第一次用神华腾挪仓位，上一次用神华换的是茅台，这次换的是泡泡玛特。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4f246-385e9960-cb07-483e-a435-9bb991ead542.png?guru_height=543&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=94956\"/></p><p><span><span>因此，他不是因为看衰神华才清仓，而是因为看好泡泡玛特，才需要腾出仓位去配置。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那么，泡泡玛特到底好在哪里？</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平不是一开始就看好泡泡玛特的，他对泡泡玛特的态度有一个明显的转变过程。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，段永平对泡泡玛特的态度是——看不懂。</span></span></p><p><span><span>“我以前见过很多风靡一时的玩具，比如电子宠物、呼啦圈、魔方，一开始直觉觉得这个有点像那些东西。”</span></span></p><p><span><span>他觉得这个生意离他太远，不容易理解，不知道可持续性会如何，所以迟迟没有下手。</span></span></p><p><span><span>转折点是泡泡玛特</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年的财报。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，泡泡玛特营收</span></span><span><span>371</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>184%</span></span><span><span>，净利润</span></span><span><span>130</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>284%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这份财报让段永平产生了好奇心，花了好几天时间认真研究这家公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平研究出来了三点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>第一点，也是最重要的一点，那就是创始人王宁。</span></span></p><p><span><span>相比投资泡泡玛特，段永平更多的是看好王宁。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平表示，</span></span><span><span>“我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个‘企业家’。我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干</span></span><span><span>25</span></span><span><span>年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。”</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/82035-12250820-89eb-4bdd-b07c-3db0942232bc.png?guru_height=207&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=73828\"/></p><p><span><span>第二点，海外门店的崛起。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平在报告之外，亲自去伦敦的泡泡玛特门店去看，发现那家店生意很好，</span></span><span><span>90%</span></span><span><span>的顾客是本地人，不是华人，段永平认为，这说明泡泡玛特有可能成为一家全球性消费品牌。</span></span></p><p><span><span>第三点，</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>right price</span></span><span><span>”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>泡泡玛特发完亮眼财报后，股价反而大跌，市场因为短期情绪给出了一个更便宜的价格。</span></span></p><p><span><span>神华和泡泡玛特的商业模式都不难理解，段永平调仓的原因也很容易发现。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但这次清仓神华、买入泡泡玛特的调仓之所以引发这么大的关注，一个很重要的原因是，在很多人眼里，这象征着一种风格转变。</span></span></p><p><span><span>一个长期以稳健著称的投资者，突然买了一家潮玩公司，还卖掉了持有十几年的煤炭龙头。</span></span></p><p><span><span>有人觉得他终于开窍了，也有人觉得他开始漂了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那么，事实到底如何？</span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，新消费一度成为港股最为火热的赛道。</span></span></p><p><span><span>然而下半年开始，新消费龙头纷纷迎来回调。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那么，段永平杀入新消费赛道，是否证明，新消费即将再次崛起，传统行业难以为继呢？</span></span></p><p><span><span>答案是否定的。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/7fed3-4c3c6a4b-218c-4c71-ac0c-0761b70a821f.png?guru_height=655&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=167152\"/></p><p><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>月底，段永平也曾透露，用中国神华换了些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，贵州茅台营业总收入</span></span><span><span>1720.54</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比减少</span></span><span><span>1.21%</span></span><span><span>，归母净利润也同比减少</span></span><span><span>4.08%</span></span><span><span>至</span></span><span><span>823.20</span></span><span><span>亿元，这是茅台上市以来的首次营收和净利润双降。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/af235-e02dea2f-c46c-4a8a-bbcb-c004ef2851ba.jpg?guru_height=634&amp;guru_width=935&amp;guru_size=71296\"/></p><p><span><span>与茅台形成鲜明对照的是泡泡玛特。</span></span></p><p><span><span>泡泡玛特</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年全年营收</span></span><span><span>371.2</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>184.7%</span></span><span><span>，经调整净利润</span></span><span><span>130.8</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>284.5%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>一个是传统消费的代表，营收已经开始下坡，一个是新消费的代表，在不确定中持续高速增长，段永平同时持有它们，到底是怎么想的？</span></span></p><p><span><span>过去很多年间，段永平反复讲茅台，讲它的商业模式、品牌壁垒和管理层，突出的，就是一个确定性。</span></span></p><p><span><span>他认为，像茅台这样的生意，你在任何时候买入，只要持有时间足够长，几乎不可能亏钱。</span></span></p><p><span><span>茅台的收入高度集中在国内市场，高度依赖飞天茅台这一个超级单品，依赖的是几乎不可能被复制的品牌壁垒。</span></span></p><p><span><span>在中国的高端社交和商务场景中，茅台的地位极难被替代。</span></span></p><p><span><span>即便未来五年茅台营收零增长，每年仍然能产生大几百亿的净利润，现金流极其充沛，分红率也持续提升。</span></span></p><p><span><span>持有茅台赚的是稳定的现金流和分红，未来的增长预期是温和的，甚至可能是零增长，但它的下限非常高。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平仍然持有并加仓茅台，买的是它的确定性。</span></span></p><p><span><span>泡泡玛特则与之截然不同。</span></span></p><p><span><span>它的增长驱动力来自全球化扩张、</span></span><span><span>IP</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>的丰富和品类创新。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，泡泡玛特海外收入</span></span><span><span>162.7</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>291.9%</span></span><span><span>，占总营收比重从</span></span><span><span>2024</span></span><span><span>年的</span></span><span><span>31.8%</span></span><span><span>跃升至</span></span><span><span>43.8%</span></span><span><span>，放在任何行业都是顶级成长股的级别。</span></span></p><p><span><span>不仅如此，公司业务中，毛绒产品收入</span></span><span><span>187.1</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>560%</span></span><span><span>，首次超越手办成为第一大品类。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这就说明，哪怕公司成长已经如此惊人，但公司的业务结构还在动态变化中。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这既代表了极大的收益，同样也隐藏着巨大的风险。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这两家公司在投资上代表的并不是行业的对立，而是投资中两种截然不同的资产类型。</span></span></p><p><span><span>也是因此，并非段永平不看好传统消费，他只是将自己的投资调转了一个方向，而这个方向又恰好撞上了目前市场上的两种情绪。</span></span></p><p><span><span>就在近期，白酒行业迎来了一连串的利空。</span></span></p><p><span><span>先是茅台业绩负增长，后是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>业绩直接砍半。</span></span></p><p><span><span>然而，在两大龙头股接连放出负面消息之后，白酒板块大跌后又迅速回升，某种程度上看，白酒或许已经跌不动了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是，跌不动了，也不意味着会立马掉头向上，如今的传统消费，已经和新消费资产走上了完全不同的估值逻辑。</span></span></p><p><span><span>对于新消费而言，市场愿意为高增长支付溢价，但也随时会因为增长预期的动摇而踩下刹车，这样的高增长高波动，是茅台和神华所不具备的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但目前，茅台</span></span><span><span>20</span></span><span><span>倍左右的市盈率处于历史相对低位，神华约</span></span><span><span>7%</span></span><span><span>的股息率仍然是高股息策略的重要标的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当市场上同时存在高确定性的低增长资产和高不确定性的高增长资产时，不同的选择，仅仅只是来源于自身的风险偏好。</span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03 </font></span></strong><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">结语</font></strong></h3><div><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></strong></div><p><span><span>对于普通投资者来说，与其关注</span></span><span><span>“该不该跟着买泡泡玛特”，不如关注段永平做这笔交易的方法本身。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平从看不懂到看懂泡泡玛特，用了至少几个月的时间，中间做了大量研究、实地调研、阅读创始人的书和访谈。</span></span></p><p><span><span>他不是因为别人赚钱了才跟进去，而是自己投入了认知成本。</span></span></p><p><span><span>而普通投资者做不到深度研究，但至少可以做到一点，那就是，不要买入你完全不了解的公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>更深一层看，哪怕是段永平这样的投资家，也需要数月探索，才把一个原本看不懂的生意变成看得懂。</span></span></p><p><span><span>普通投资者投资时，更需要认清自己不懂的边界，再一步一步将其拓展。</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平清仓了，风向变了？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平清仓了，风向变了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-10 15:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4697623><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近，段永平在雪球发了个帖子，宣布把自己持有的中国神华，都换成了泡泡玛特。这件事网络上讨论得挺火的。之所以大家都很关注，除了吃瓜，也是因为大佬的高调换仓有时会给标的带来一波明显波动，反应快的可以趁机捞一波涨幅。今年1月21日，段永平高调晒单加仓茅台2万股，引发市场关注，27日，进一步加仓7.72万股，随后29日公开喊话“10年后，回看今天的茅台真不贵”。结果后面几天，茅台股价从1330元快速涨到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4697623\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5d4f1-1e70802d-afff-48d2-98a6-97a60fce040b.jpg?guru_height=667&guru_width=1000&guru_size=62317","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","601088":"中国神华","LU1497734951.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility Equity Fund ASDM SGD-H","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1934453819.USD":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","BK0215":"饮品","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","HK0000181112.HKD":"DA CHENG CHINA BALANCED \"A\" (HKD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4697623","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2634544196","content_text":"最近，段永平在雪球发了个帖子，宣布把自己持有的中国神华，都换成了泡泡玛特。这件事网络上讨论得挺火的。之所以大家都很关注，除了吃瓜，也是因为大佬的高调换仓有时会给标的带来一波明显波动，反应快的可以趁机捞一波涨幅。今年1月21日，段永平高调晒单加仓茅台2万股，引发市场关注，27日，进一步加仓7.72万股，随后29日公开喊话“10年后，回看今天的茅台真不贵”。结果后面几天，茅台股价从1330元快速涨到1560元，短短几天幅度高达17%！虽然当时茅台大涨原因并不完全因为他，但他也确实是起了重要作用。这就是大佬的效应。所以近日他清仓神华换成泡泡玛特，大家的关注度也都极高。帖子发出后，泡泡玛特当天午盘直线拉升，当天收盘涨3.77%，第二天续涨3.64%。被他清仓的中国神华，当天则跌了4.2%。仅仅半年多以前，他还在说自己根本看不懂泡泡玛特，如今却高调宣布看好。这背后，有什么值得我们去揣摩学习的呢？01一直以来，段永平的投资框架秉持“Right Business、Right People、Right Price”。而从商业模式上说，中国神华相当符合“Right Business”。神华是中国最大的煤炭生产商，也是煤炭行业的全产业链龙头，从煤矿开采到铁路运输到港口到电厂，几乎不需要依赖外部环节。这种结构让神华在煤炭价格波动中比同行抗跌得多。从财务上看，2025年神华实现营收2949.16亿元，归母净利润528.49亿元，虽然营收同比下降13.21%，利润下降5.3%，但在煤炭价格整体下行的环境里，这样的表现已经相当不错。更重要的是分红，2025年，中国神华全年分红率为78%，公司还承诺2025到2027年分红比例不低于65%。作为央企，中国神华管理团队稳定，治理规范，从管理层角度，这也是段永平不需要担心人出问题的公司。神华唯一的缺点是，它毕竟活在煤炭行业。而煤炭是个周期性行业，虽然神华的煤电一体化结构能缓冲周期波动，但它终究没办法完全摆脱煤价的影响。2025年神华自产煤平均售价同比下降9.3%，月度长协价格同比下降19.3%，周期下行依然会传导至利润端。但这并非段永平清仓神华的全部原因。早从2010年前后，段永平就开始持仓中国神华，中间经历过几次加减，但始终没有彻底清仓。从公开信息看，中国神华一直是他A股方面除茅台之外为数不多的持仓。2024年10月时段永平还在说，“A股我没那么懂，目前基本上都是茅台，加一丁丁点神华。”对于段永平而言，从2010年买入到2026年清仓，这趟投资持有时间超过15年，经历过数轮煤价牛熊，回报相当丰厚。段永平也说神华是“很好的公司”，赚了钱，还说以后会回来。这次清仓神华换泡泡玛特，也不是他第一次用神华腾挪仓位，上一次用神华换的是茅台，这次换的是泡泡玛特。因此，他不是因为看衰神华才清仓，而是因为看好泡泡玛特，才需要腾出仓位去配置。那么，泡泡玛特到底好在哪里？段永平不是一开始就看好泡泡玛特的，他对泡泡玛特的态度有一个明显的转变过程。2025年，段永平对泡泡玛特的态度是——看不懂。“我以前见过很多风靡一时的玩具，比如电子宠物、呼啦圈、魔方，一开始直觉觉得这个有点像那些东西。”他觉得这个生意离他太远，不容易理解，不知道可持续性会如何，所以迟迟没有下手。转折点是泡泡玛特2025年的财报。2025年，泡泡玛特营收371亿元，同比增长184%，净利润130亿元，同比增长284%。这份财报让段永平产生了好奇心，花了好几天时间认真研究这家公司。段永平研究出来了三点。第一点，也是最重要的一点，那就是创始人王宁。相比投资泡泡玛特，段永平更多的是看好王宁。段永平表示，“我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个‘企业家’。我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干25年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。”第二点，海外门店的崛起。段永平在报告之外，亲自去伦敦的泡泡玛特门店去看，发现那家店生意很好，90%的顾客是本地人，不是华人，段永平认为，这说明泡泡玛特有可能成为一家全球性消费品牌。第三点，“right price”。泡泡玛特发完亮眼财报后，股价反而大跌，市场因为短期情绪给出了一个更便宜的价格。神华和泡泡玛特的商业模式都不难理解，段永平调仓的原因也很容易发现。但这次清仓神华、买入泡泡玛特的调仓之所以引发这么大的关注，一个很重要的原因是，在很多人眼里，这象征着一种风格转变。一个长期以稳健著称的投资者，突然买了一家潮玩公司，还卖掉了持有十几年的煤炭龙头。有人觉得他终于开窍了，也有人觉得他开始漂了。那么，事实到底如何？022025年，新消费一度成为港股最为火热的赛道。然而下半年开始，新消费龙头纷纷迎来回调。那么，段永平杀入新消费赛道，是否证明，新消费即将再次崛起，传统行业难以为继呢？答案是否定的。1月底，段永平也曾透露，用中国神华换了些贵州茅台。2025年，贵州茅台营业总收入1720.54亿元，同比减少1.21%，归母净利润也同比减少4.08%至823.20亿元，这是茅台上市以来的首次营收和净利润双降。与茅台形成鲜明对照的是泡泡玛特。泡泡玛特2025年全年营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%，经调整净利润130.8亿元，同比增长284.5%。一个是传统消费的代表，营收已经开始下坡，一个是新消费的代表，在不确定中持续高速增长，段永平同时持有它们，到底是怎么想的？过去很多年间，段永平反复讲茅台，讲它的商业模式、品牌壁垒和管理层，突出的，就是一个确定性。他认为，像茅台这样的生意，你在任何时候买入，只要持有时间足够长，几乎不可能亏钱。茅台的收入高度集中在国内市场，高度依赖飞天茅台这一个超级单品，依赖的是几乎不可能被复制的品牌壁垒。在中国的高端社交和商务场景中，茅台的地位极难被替代。即便未来五年茅台营收零增长，每年仍然能产生大几百亿的净利润，现金流极其充沛，分红率也持续提升。持有茅台赚的是稳定的现金流和分红，未来的增长预期是温和的，甚至可能是零增长，但它的下限非常高。段永平仍然持有并加仓茅台，买的是它的确定性。泡泡玛特则与之截然不同。它的增长驱动力来自全球化扩张、IP矩阵的丰富和品类创新。2025年，泡泡玛特海外收入162.7亿元，同比增长291.9%，占总营收比重从2024年的31.8%跃升至43.8%，放在任何行业都是顶级成长股的级别。不仅如此，公司业务中，毛绒产品收入187.1亿元，同比增长560%，首次超越手办成为第一大品类。这就说明，哪怕公司成长已经如此惊人，但公司的业务结构还在动态变化中。这既代表了极大的收益，同样也隐藏着巨大的风险。这两家公司在投资上代表的并不是行业的对立，而是投资中两种截然不同的资产类型。也是因此，并非段永平不看好传统消费，他只是将自己的投资调转了一个方向，而这个方向又恰好撞上了目前市场上的两种情绪。就在近期，白酒行业迎来了一连串的利空。先是茅台业绩负增长，后是五粮液业绩直接砍半。然而，在两大龙头股接连放出负面消息之后，白酒板块大跌后又迅速回升，某种程度上看，白酒或许已经跌不动了。但是，跌不动了，也不意味着会立马掉头向上，如今的传统消费，已经和新消费资产走上了完全不同的估值逻辑。对于新消费而言，市场愿意为高增长支付溢价，但也随时会因为增长预期的动摇而踩下刹车，这样的高增长高波动，是茅台和神华所不具备的。但目前，茅台20倍左右的市盈率处于历史相对低位，神华约7%的股息率仍然是高股息策略的重要标的。当市场上同时存在高确定性的低增长资产和高不确定性的高增长资产时，不同的选择，仅仅只是来源于自身的风险偏好。03 结语对于普通投资者来说，与其关注“该不该跟着买泡泡玛特”，不如关注段永平做这笔交易的方法本身。段永平从看不懂到看懂泡泡玛特，用了至少几个月的时间，中间做了大量研究、实地调研、阅读创始人的书和访谈。他不是因为别人赚钱了才跟进去，而是自己投入了认知成本。而普通投资者做不到深度研究，但至少可以做到一点，那就是，不要买入你完全不了解的公司。更深一层看，哪怕是段永平这样的投资家，也需要数月探索，才把一个原本看不懂的生意变成看得懂。普通投资者投资时，更需要认清自己不懂的边界，再一步一步将其拓展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":1.88,"601088":1.91,"CSUAY":1.91,"09992":1.97,"01088":1.91,"PMRTY":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561933605381408,"gmtCreate":1778222528119,"gmtModify":1778222530601,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他应该把拼多多买起来","listText":"他应该把拼多多买起来","text":"他应该把拼多多买起来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561933605381408","repostId":"1107123169","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107123169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1778204624,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107123169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-08 09:43","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107123169","media":"异动解读","summary":"公司未来增长潜力巨大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a> 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，<strong>“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。</strong>段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49dbb90ecc3a61c90c1dfd70d1eb29b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-08 09:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a> 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，<strong>“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。</strong>段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49dbb90ecc3a61c90c1dfd70d1eb29b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dc37d452f250ce3fb402a1655ca971","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107123169","content_text":"周五， 泡泡玛特 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561931803907696,"gmtCreate":1778222106307,"gmtModify":1778222108495,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561931803907696","repostId":"2633912851","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633912851","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778132495,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2633912851?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 13:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 泡泡玛特午后涨超3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633912851","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"5月7日，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)盘中拉升，午后涨幅超3%，截至发稿，涨3.2%，报161.3港元，成交额22.31亿港元。","content":"<div>\n<p>5月7日，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)盘中拉升，午后涨幅超3%，截至发稿，涨3.2%，报161.3港元，成交额22.31亿港元。（文章来源：每日经济新闻）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202605073729940752.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股异动 | 泡泡玛特午后涨超3%</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202605073729940752.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK1224":"专卖店","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202605073729940752.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633912851","content_text":"5月7日，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)盘中拉升，午后涨幅超3%，截至发稿，涨3.2%，报161.3港元，成交额22.31亿港元。（文章来源：每日经济新闻）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98,"PMRTY":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561931435857848,"gmtCreate":1778222069841,"gmtModify":1778222072254,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561931435857848","repostId":"2633064001","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633064001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778196780,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2633064001?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-08 07:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平投资泡泡玛特的背后逻辑是什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633064001","media":"郭施亮","summary":"知名投资人段永平在公开平台上表示，已把中国神华换成了泡泡玛特。在此之前，段永平通过卖出看跌期权间接投资泡泡玛特。这一次段永平开始投资泡泡玛特，或许是投资观念、消费观念的一次重要转变。在段永平投资泡泡玛特的背后，我们不得不重新审视泡泡玛特的护城河与商业模式，这也是专业投资者最看重的因素。根据泡泡玛特的最新财报显示，目前泡泡玛特的海外收入占了43.82%，接近一半收入由海外市场贡献。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>知名投资人段永平在公开平台上表示，已把<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">中国神华</a></span>换成了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>。在此之前，段永平通过卖出看跌期权间接投资泡泡玛特。</p><p>与直接买入正股相比，卖出看跌期权（卖put），可以设置一个心仪的价格进行抄底，如果期权到期时股价没有跌到这个心仪的价位，投资者可以获得相应的权利金。</p><p>从本质上分析，卖出看跌期权是对上市公司长期看好的策略。看好<span><span>某</span></span>家上市公司的长期投资价值，是实施卖出看跌期权的重要前提。</p><p>如果说<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a></span>是“老登资产”的代表，那么泡泡玛特就是“中小登”的代表。这一次段永平开始投资泡泡玛特，或许是投资观念、消费观念的一次重要转变。</p><p>在段永平投资泡泡玛特的背后，我们不得不重新审视泡泡玛特的护城河与商业模式，这也是专业投资者最看重的因素。</p><p>个人认为，泡泡玛特是<span>出海</span>最成功的中国品牌之一。</p><p>根据泡泡玛特的最新财报显示，目前泡泡玛特的海外收入占了43.82%，接近一半收入由海外市场贡献。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>市场与美洲市场是海外市场的主要收入来源。</p><p>与此同时，从公司的毛利率与净利率分析，分别达到了72.1%和35.05%。高毛利率与高净利率，说明了公司的产品很赚钱。海外市场的持续扩张以及海外复购率的持续提升，为公司带来了可观的收入来源与充裕的现金流补充，形成了公司的护城河。</p><p>在欧美市场，当你走进<span><span>某</span></span>一个热门城市的核心商圈，你会看到泡泡玛特的身影。</p><p>泡泡玛特对开店选址非常讲究，它的选址策略往往在大城市的核心商圈，而不会因为铺租便宜、成本开支小而选择偏远的区域或冷门路段来开店。</p><p>通过核心商圈的高品质选址，注定了泡泡玛特的目标客户是具备一定消费能力的消费人群。从目标客户来看，主要定位于一二线城市或海外热门城市的年轻人，年龄在16岁至35岁之间，而且以年轻女性作为核心目标对象。</p><p>针对这部分的目标客户，本身具备一定的经济实力，而且更愿意为情绪价值买单。泡泡玛特利用时尚潮流的产品优势以及开盲盒的营销模式，迅速积累了一批年轻客户。这些年轻客户更愿意为情绪价值买单，只要泡泡玛特不定期推出爆款，那么将会有一批忠实客户会为这些新品买单。</p><p>泡泡玛特已经不局限于中国潮玩的定位，而是远远超越潮玩的影响力。假如泡泡玛特的目标定位是打造成全球奢侈品挂件或装饰品巨头，或者打造成全球超级品牌概念，那么泡泡玛特的估值定位也会再上一个台阶。</p><p>有人说，泡泡玛特的成功，主要依赖于LABUBU的意外走红，属于现象级的潮玩IP。</p><p>然而，真正了解泡泡玛特的玩家，他们会发现，泡泡玛特的IP孵化能力特别强。LABUBU只是其中一个爆款，除此以外，包括MOLLY、DIMOO等IP的受欢迎程度非常高。</p><p>由此可见，泡泡玛特并非只依赖<span><span>某</span></span>一个IP，而是已经打造成一个成熟的IP孵化平台。</p><p>时至今日，泡泡玛特已经形成了非常成熟的艺术家签约模式，而且有持续稳定的IP输出，由此形成了泡泡玛特的核心竞争力。</p><p>除此以外，泡泡玛特还特别擅长营销，擅于捕捉年轻人对情绪价值的消费需求。</p><p>通过明星名人宣传效应、社交裂变以及盲盒营销模式等，为年轻人带来了无限的情绪价值。开盲盒的营销模式具备了一定的成瘾性，叠加超级IP的持续输出，年轻玩家的持续消费需求得到了全面激活。</p><p>当一件装饰品、一件潮玩被赋予了收藏价值，而且持有价值会随着时间的推移而持续增值，那么它的投资价值也会得到市场的重新审视。也许，从投资大佬的投资视野分析，他们可能在泡泡玛特身上看到了十年前乃至二十年前“茅台”的身影。</p><p>影响未来泡泡玛特的估值定价与投资前景，取决于泡泡玛特的未来发展方向。同时，也取决于泡泡玛特IP的持续输出能力、泡泡玛特产品的复购率以及公司海外扩张的能力等。</p><p>如果未来的泡泡玛特对标的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>，那么泡泡玛特需要拿出更高的业绩增速数据，才能够打破迪士尼15倍至20倍估值的约束压力。假如泡泡玛特开创出属于自己的商业模式以及独特的商业故事，那么凭借稀缺性与超级IP的定位，市场对它的估值定价也会发生深刻性的变化。，</p><p>最为可贵的是，泡泡玛特的创始人王宁，今年才39岁。39岁可以拥有超过2000亿港元市值的上市公司，实力已经远超过绝大多数的同龄人。39岁的年龄，未来的想象空间巨大，投资大佬的入场也是对泡泡玛特王宁发展前景的高度认可。</p>\n<div>\n<p>港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅&gt;&gt;</p>\n<div>\r\n            责任编辑：栎树\r\n          </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平投资泡泡玛特的背后逻辑是什么？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平投资泡泡玛特的背后逻辑是什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-08 07:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://hk.jrj.com.cn/2026/05/08073357026214.shtml><strong>郭施亮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>知名投资人段永平在公开平台上表示，已把中国神华换成了泡泡玛特。在此之前，段永平通过卖出看跌期权间接投资泡泡玛特。与直接买入正股相比，卖出看跌期权（卖put），可以设置一个心仪的价格进行抄底，如果期权到期时股价没有跌到这个心仪的价位，投资者可以获得相应的权利金。从本质上分析，卖出看跌期权是对上市公司长期看好的策略。看好某家上市公司的长期投资价值，是实施卖出看跌期权的重要前提。如果说贵州茅台是“老登...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://hk.jrj.com.cn/2026/05/08073357026214.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002950.SGD":"United Asian Growth Opportunities SGD","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1224":"专卖店","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0499858602.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)"},"source_url":"https://hk.jrj.com.cn/2026/05/08073357026214.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633064001","content_text":"知名投资人段永平在公开平台上表示，已把中国神华换成了泡泡玛特。在此之前，段永平通过卖出看跌期权间接投资泡泡玛特。与直接买入正股相比，卖出看跌期权（卖put），可以设置一个心仪的价格进行抄底，如果期权到期时股价没有跌到这个心仪的价位，投资者可以获得相应的权利金。从本质上分析，卖出看跌期权是对上市公司长期看好的策略。看好某家上市公司的长期投资价值，是实施卖出看跌期权的重要前提。如果说贵州茅台是“老登资产”的代表，那么泡泡玛特就是“中小登”的代表。这一次段永平开始投资泡泡玛特，或许是投资观念、消费观念的一次重要转变。在段永平投资泡泡玛特的背后，我们不得不重新审视泡泡玛特的护城河与商业模式，这也是专业投资者最看重的因素。个人认为，泡泡玛特是出海最成功的中国品牌之一。根据泡泡玛特的最新财报显示，目前泡泡玛特的海外收入占了43.82%，接近一半收入由海外市场贡献。其中，亚太市场与美洲市场是海外市场的主要收入来源。与此同时，从公司的毛利率与净利率分析，分别达到了72.1%和35.05%。高毛利率与高净利率，说明了公司的产品很赚钱。海外市场的持续扩张以及海外复购率的持续提升，为公司带来了可观的收入来源与充裕的现金流补充，形成了公司的护城河。在欧美市场，当你走进某一个热门城市的核心商圈，你会看到泡泡玛特的身影。泡泡玛特对开店选址非常讲究，它的选址策略往往在大城市的核心商圈，而不会因为铺租便宜、成本开支小而选择偏远的区域或冷门路段来开店。通过核心商圈的高品质选址，注定了泡泡玛特的目标客户是具备一定消费能力的消费人群。从目标客户来看，主要定位于一二线城市或海外热门城市的年轻人，年龄在16岁至35岁之间，而且以年轻女性作为核心目标对象。针对这部分的目标客户，本身具备一定的经济实力，而且更愿意为情绪价值买单。泡泡玛特利用时尚潮流的产品优势以及开盲盒的营销模式，迅速积累了一批年轻客户。这些年轻客户更愿意为情绪价值买单，只要泡泡玛特不定期推出爆款，那么将会有一批忠实客户会为这些新品买单。泡泡玛特已经不局限于中国潮玩的定位，而是远远超越潮玩的影响力。假如泡泡玛特的目标定位是打造成全球奢侈品挂件或装饰品巨头，或者打造成全球超级品牌概念，那么泡泡玛特的估值定位也会再上一个台阶。有人说，泡泡玛特的成功，主要依赖于LABUBU的意外走红，属于现象级的潮玩IP。然而，真正了解泡泡玛特的玩家，他们会发现，泡泡玛特的IP孵化能力特别强。LABUBU只是其中一个爆款，除此以外，包括MOLLY、DIMOO等IP的受欢迎程度非常高。由此可见，泡泡玛特并非只依赖某一个IP，而是已经打造成一个成熟的IP孵化平台。时至今日，泡泡玛特已经形成了非常成熟的艺术家签约模式，而且有持续稳定的IP输出，由此形成了泡泡玛特的核心竞争力。除此以外，泡泡玛特还特别擅长营销，擅于捕捉年轻人对情绪价值的消费需求。通过明星名人宣传效应、社交裂变以及盲盒营销模式等，为年轻人带来了无限的情绪价值。开盲盒的营销模式具备了一定的成瘾性，叠加超级IP的持续输出，年轻玩家的持续消费需求得到了全面激活。当一件装饰品、一件潮玩被赋予了收藏价值，而且持有价值会随着时间的推移而持续增值，那么它的投资价值也会得到市场的重新审视。也许，从投资大佬的投资视野分析，他们可能在泡泡玛特身上看到了十年前乃至二十年前“茅台”的身影。影响未来泡泡玛特的估值定价与投资前景，取决于泡泡玛特的未来发展方向。同时，也取决于泡泡玛特IP的持续输出能力、泡泡玛特产品的复购率以及公司海外扩张的能力等。如果未来的泡泡玛特对标的是迪士尼，那么泡泡玛特需要拿出更高的业绩增速数据，才能够打破迪士尼15倍至20倍估值的约束压力。假如泡泡玛特开创出属于自己的商业模式以及独特的商业故事，那么凭借稀缺性与超级IP的定位，市场对它的估值定价也会发生深刻性的变化。，最为可贵的是，泡泡玛特的创始人王宁，今年才39岁。39岁可以拥有超过2000亿港元市值的上市公司，实力已经远超过绝大多数的同龄人。39岁的年龄，未来的想象空间巨大，投资大佬的入场也是对泡泡玛特王宁发展前景的高度认可。\n\n港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\n            责任编辑：栎树","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PMRTY":1.97,"09992":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561929768121568,"gmtCreate":1778221670359,"gmtModify":1778221672896,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561929768121568","repostId":"1153137005","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153137005","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778127952,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153137005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 12:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股期权｜科技股大涨期权全线升温，腾讯、阿里、百度、快手认购期权遭抢筹；泡泡玛特获段永平加仓，认购期权同步放量","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153137005","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"港股三大指数今日跳涨，恒生科技指数大涨3.09%，恒生指数、国企指数均上涨1.56%。截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交近56万张，其中，$腾讯控股$成交量居首，期权成交超12万张；$阿里巴巴-W$名列次席，期权成交近5.3万张；$快手-W$位居第三，期权成交超3.7万张。期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超2.8万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为160港元的认购期权成交居前，成交6801张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_529771302\">一、股票期权成交量</h2><p>5月7日，美伊预期谈判缓和，风险市场情绪大幅回升。港股三大指数今日跳涨，恒生科技指数大涨3.09%，恒生指数、国企指数均上涨1.56%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a0a6eba213a15532cda3a59896b41f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"150\"/></p><p>截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交近56万张，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>成交量居首，期权成交超12万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a>名列次席，期权成交近5.3万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>位居第三，期权成交超3.7万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d822e1ea7b65403d2805624ebd00d66\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1012488652\">二、异动观察</h2><p>作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体强势，其中快手涨超7%，百度集团涨超5%，阿里巴巴涨超4%，腾讯控股涨超3%；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e412e916816fd5831fc620ff4b0ba63\" tg-width=\"396\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p>期权方面，腾讯控股半日成交超12万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为480港元的认购期权成交居前，成交7192张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35b55ed64f0bfe9968d7eaf4db9c55f\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p>阿里巴巴成交近5.3万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为150港元的认购期权成交居前，成交3099张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2b1428bc2db6635f7fcf4d1b32eb6\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2290\"/></p><p>快手成交超3.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为55港元的认购期权成交居前，成交1931张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f5452159009647c1b31783421862aa\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p>百度成交超3万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为137.5港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2545张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38860060a3578f1fa65960c082cfdd18\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>午前直线拉升，股价涨近2%；消息面上，知名投资人段永平发文称已将所持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>仓位换入泡泡玛特，表示 “神华是家很好的公司，未来有机会还会再回来”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212738a7ee9a658ff92ba03b958d5b29\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超2.8万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为160港元的认购期权成交居前，成交6801张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5482165987f1c11ee143d08ab2caba20\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股期权｜科技股大涨期权全线升温，腾讯、阿里、百度、快手认购期权遭抢筹；泡泡玛特获段永平加仓，认购期权同步放量</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股期权｜科技股大涨期权全线升温，腾讯、阿里、百度、快手认购期权遭抢筹；泡泡玛特获段永平加仓，认购期权同步放量\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 12:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_529771302\">一、股票期权成交量</h2><p>5月7日，美伊预期谈判缓和，风险市场情绪大幅回升。港股三大指数今日跳涨，恒生科技指数大涨3.09%，恒生指数、国企指数均上涨1.56%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a0a6eba213a15532cda3a59896b41f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"150\"/></p><p>截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交近56万张，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>成交量居首，期权成交超12万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a>名列次席，期权成交近5.3万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>位居第三，期权成交超3.7万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d822e1ea7b65403d2805624ebd00d66\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1012488652\">二、异动观察</h2><p>作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体强势，其中快手涨超7%，百度集团涨超5%，阿里巴巴涨超4%，腾讯控股涨超3%；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e412e916816fd5831fc620ff4b0ba63\" tg-width=\"396\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p>期权方面，腾讯控股半日成交超12万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为480港元的认购期权成交居前，成交7192张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35b55ed64f0bfe9968d7eaf4db9c55f\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p>阿里巴巴成交近5.3万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为150港元的认购期权成交居前，成交3099张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2b1428bc2db6635f7fcf4d1b32eb6\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2290\"/></p><p>快手成交超3.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为55港元的认购期权成交居前，成交1931张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f5452159009647c1b31783421862aa\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p>百度成交超3万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为137.5港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2545张；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38860060a3578f1fa65960c082cfdd18\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>午前直线拉升，股价涨近2%；消息面上，知名投资人段永平发文称已将所持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>仓位换入泡泡玛特，表示 “神华是家很好的公司，未来有机会还会再回来”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212738a7ee9a658ff92ba03b958d5b29\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超2.8万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为160港元的认购期权成交居前，成交6801张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5482165987f1c11ee143d08ab2caba20\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","01024":"快手-W","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","09992":"泡泡玛特","00700":"腾讯控股","09888":"百度集团-SW"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153137005","content_text":"一、股票期权成交量5月7日，美伊预期谈判缓和，风险市场情绪大幅回升。港股三大指数今日跳涨，恒生科技指数大涨3.09%，恒生指数、国企指数均上涨1.56%。截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交近56万张，其中，腾讯控股成交量居首，期权成交超12万张；阿里巴巴-W名列次席，期权成交近5.3万张；快手-W位居第三，期权成交超3.7万张。二、异动观察作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体强势，其中快手涨超7%，百度集团涨超5%，阿里巴巴涨超4%，腾讯控股涨超3%；期权方面，腾讯控股半日成交超12万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为480港元的认购期权成交居前，成交7192张；阿里巴巴成交近5.3万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为150港元的认购期权成交居前，成交3099张；快手成交超3.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为55港元的认购期权成交居前，成交1931张；百度成交超3万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为137.5港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2545张；泡泡玛特午前直线拉升，股价涨近2%；消息面上，知名投资人段永平发文称已将所持中国神华仓位换入泡泡玛特，表示 “神华是家很好的公司，未来有机会还会再回来”。期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超2.8万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为160港元的认购期权成交居前，成交6801张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VXUS":1.5,"00700":2,"09992":2,"01024":2,"09888":2,"09988":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561929984026064,"gmtCreate":1778221649088,"gmtModify":1778221651456,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561929984026064","repostId":"1117025535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117025535","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1778133826,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117025535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 14:03","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 段永平换仓加码，泡泡玛特盘中大涨5.12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117025535","media":"异动解读","summary":"泡泡玛特今日盘中股价大幅拉升，涨幅一度超过5%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，知名投资人段永平在社交媒体发文称，已将所持中国神华的仓位全部换入泡泡玛特，并表示“神华是家很好的公司，未来有机会还会再回来”。此举被视为对泡泡玛特长期价值的强烈认可，直接触发了市场买盘，推动股价快速上涨。此外，泡泡玛特近期公布的2025年业绩表现强劲，营收和利润均实现大幅增长，核心IP LABUBU全球爆红，公司在线下乐园、全球化布局等方面持续推进，这些基本面因素也增强了投资者对其未来发展的信心，与段永平的加仓动作共同构成了股价上涨的支撑。","content":"<p>泡泡玛特今日盘中股价大幅拉升，涨幅一度超过5%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，知名投资人段永平在社交媒体发文称，已将所持中国神华的仓位全部换入泡泡玛特，并表示“神华是家很好的公司，未来有机会还会再回来”。此举被视为对泡泡玛特长期价值的强烈认可，直接触发了市场买盘，推动股价快速上涨。</p><p>此外，泡泡玛特近期公布的2025年业绩表现强劲，营收和利润均实现大幅增长，核心IP LABUBU全球爆红，公司在线下乐园、全球化布局等方面持续推进，这些基本面因素也增强了投资者对其未来发展的信心，与段永平的加仓动作共同构成了股价上涨的支撑。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 段永平换仓加码，泡泡玛特盘中大涨5.12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 14:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>泡泡玛特今日盘中股价大幅拉升，涨幅一度超过5%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，知名投资人段永平在社交媒体发文称，已将所持中国神华的仓位全部换入泡泡玛特，并表示“神华是家很好的公司，未来有机会还会再回来”。此举被视为对泡泡玛特长期价值的强烈认可，直接触发了市场买盘，推动股价快速上涨。</p><p>此外，泡泡玛特近期公布的2025年业绩表现强劲，营收和利润均实现大幅增长，核心IP LABUBU全球爆红，公司在线下乐园、全球化布局等方面持续推进，这些基本面因素也增强了投资者对其未来发展的信心，与段永平的加仓动作共同构成了股价上涨的支撑。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117025535","content_text":"泡泡玛特今日盘中股价大幅拉升，涨幅一度超过5%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，知名投资人段永平在社交媒体发文称，已将所持中国神华的仓位全部换入泡泡玛特，并表示“神华是家很好的公司，未来有机会还会再回来”。此举被视为对泡泡玛特长期价值的强烈认可，直接触发了市场买盘，推动股价快速上涨。此外，泡泡玛特近期公布的2025年业绩表现强劲，营收和利润均实现大幅增长，核心IP LABUBU全球爆红，公司在线下乐园、全球化布局等方面持续推进，这些基本面因素也增强了投资者对其未来发展的信心，与段永平的加仓动作共同构成了股价上涨的支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561929840166288,"gmtCreate":1778221613490,"gmtModify":1778221616099,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"他怎么不谈投资的拼多多呢？哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561929840166288","repostId":"2633160691","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633160691","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"证券之星始创于1996年，是国内领先的金融信息及综合服务平台。关注证券之星，即时获取有价值的财经资讯。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"证券之星","id":"1082532455","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f"},"pubTimestamp":1778143437,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2633160691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 16:43","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"刚刚，段永平又出手买了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633160691","media":"证券之星","summary":"关于段永平泡泡玛特近期言论，还可回顾此前文章：1.突发！段永平要出手了看点：段永平首次公开收回“不投资泡泡玛特”的表态，用“投资买未来现金流总量”的底层逻辑，解释重新审视泡泡玛特投资价值的原因。","content":"<html><body><p>近日，段永平在雪球平台(ID：大道无形我有型)互动愈发频繁，持续分享对市场热点、企业价值及投资逻辑的深度思考。</p><p>面对网友提问，他围绕AI存储行情、语录蒸馏争议、巴菲特现金储备策略，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>国际化、调仓操作、创始人价值等话题逐一回应，观点直白通透、逻辑清晰，传递出其成熟的长期投资视角。</p><p>为此，证星研究院整理了其最新互动内容，分享给大家。</p><p>以下为主要内容：</p><p><strong>一、谈存储：</strong></p><p>网友：段总，你对现在这波存储行情怎么看？</p><p>大道：说明ai确实厉害啊。(2026.5.5)</p><p><strong>二、谈蒸馏：</strong></p><p>大道：我知道很多人在蒸馏我过去的文字，但真的有大帮助吗？我没意见的，但亏钱怪罪龙虾就好。(2026.5.6)</p><p><strong>三、谈巴菲特现金储备：</strong></p><p>网友：段总是满仓主义者，如何看待巴菲特手握那么多现金？</p><p>大道：如果你能理解老巴的话，在没有能力管理自己的钱的前提下，现金就买老巴的股票就好。(2026.5.6)</p><p><strong>四、关于泡泡玛特：</strong></p><p><strong>1.谈国际化：不纠结市场体感，重在看懂企业与创始人</strong></p><p>网友：虽然我们作为外部人肯定没有王宁对泡泡玛特的理解深，但是王宁似乎觉得泡泡的国际化战略已经很成功了，这跟很多人对美国店铺的探店体感有差距？大道是否担心泡泡在美国市场热度衰退的问题？</p><p>大道：没必要比王宁对泡泡玛特理解的更深刻，但比别人更理解王宁和泡泡玛特很可能是很重要的。(2026.5.6)</p><p><strong>2.调仓换股：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">神华</a>换仓泡泡玛特，同步加仓茅台</strong></p><p>大道：我把我的神华都换了泡泡玛特了。我觉得神华是家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过了！将来有机会我还会再回来的。 I’ll be back！</p><p>网友：段老师您好，我目前已经全仓茅台半年了，我在想要不要调一部分仓位给泡泡玛特，望赐教。</p><p>大道：我今天还买了茅台啊，你会凌乱吗？(2026.5.7)</p><p><strong>3.关于经营：认可王宁格局，看好长期经营复利</strong></p><p>庶人哑士：在段总的带货下，《因为独特》一下子就火了，我在微信读书中留下的读书笔记突然被很多人点赞。</p><p>《因为独特》只是有助于理解泡泡的四本“书”之一，其他三本也非常有帮助。分别是：《玩潮：快乐即正义》、《超级IP孵化原理》、《泡泡玛特IPO招股书》。</p><p>大道：谢谢推荐的这几本书哈，确实对了解这个行业有点帮助，我有时间也尽量翻翻。虽然我觉得我已经大致蛮明白了，但多了解一些细节也是可以增添乐趣的。</p><p>庶人哑士：每个人的际遇、禀赋和悟性不太一样。您有丰富的实业经验，也有多次成功的投资经验，尤其是有成功投资游戏的经验可以迁移过来，理解泡泡挺容易的......您看懂王宁就像高山流水遇知音一样顺理成章的了。</p><p>大道：我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个“企业家”，我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干25年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。(2026.5.7)</p><p>关于段永平泡泡玛特近期言论，还可回顾此前文章：</p><p>1.突发！段永平要出手了</p><p>看点：段永平首次公开收回“不投资泡泡玛特”的表态，用“投资买未来现金流总量”的底层逻辑，解释重新审视泡泡玛特投资价值的原因。</p><p>2.段永平罕见评价一家公司是“3R”的机会</p><p>看点：段永平对泡泡玛特的深度看好核心表态，罕见给出“right business+right people+right price”兼具的3R投资机会评价。</p><p>并集中详解了他对泡泡玛特诚信经营、国际化、创始人王宁、风险等完整判断，是近期段看好泡泡玛特较为完整的逻辑合集。</p><p>3.段永平再谈茅台、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、泡泡玛特！</p><p>看点：段永平针对泡泡玛特的市场争议集中回应，涵盖跨界小家电、产品稀缺性下降、股价看空质疑、卖put入场方式等热点问题，并给出长期预判与持仓表态。</p><p><strong>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>刚刚，段永平又出手买了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n刚刚，段永平又出手买了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1082532455\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">证券之星 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 16:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>近日，段永平在雪球平台(ID：大道无形我有型)互动愈发频繁，持续分享对市场热点、企业价值及投资逻辑的深度思考。</p><p>面对网友提问，他围绕AI存储行情、语录蒸馏争议、巴菲特现金储备策略，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>国际化、调仓操作、创始人价值等话题逐一回应，观点直白通透、逻辑清晰，传递出其成熟的长期投资视角。</p><p>为此，证星研究院整理了其最新互动内容，分享给大家。</p><p>以下为主要内容：</p><p><strong>一、谈存储：</strong></p><p>网友：段总，你对现在这波存储行情怎么看？</p><p>大道：说明ai确实厉害啊。(2026.5.5)</p><p><strong>二、谈蒸馏：</strong></p><p>大道：我知道很多人在蒸馏我过去的文字，但真的有大帮助吗？我没意见的，但亏钱怪罪龙虾就好。(2026.5.6)</p><p><strong>三、谈巴菲特现金储备：</strong></p><p>网友：段总是满仓主义者，如何看待巴菲特手握那么多现金？</p><p>大道：如果你能理解老巴的话，在没有能力管理自己的钱的前提下，现金就买老巴的股票就好。(2026.5.6)</p><p><strong>四、关于泡泡玛特：</strong></p><p><strong>1.谈国际化：不纠结市场体感，重在看懂企业与创始人</strong></p><p>网友：虽然我们作为外部人肯定没有王宁对泡泡玛特的理解深，但是王宁似乎觉得泡泡的国际化战略已经很成功了，这跟很多人对美国店铺的探店体感有差距？大道是否担心泡泡在美国市场热度衰退的问题？</p><p>大道：没必要比王宁对泡泡玛特理解的更深刻，但比别人更理解王宁和泡泡玛特很可能是很重要的。(2026.5.6)</p><p><strong>2.调仓换股：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">神华</a>换仓泡泡玛特，同步加仓茅台</strong></p><p>大道：我把我的神华都换了泡泡玛特了。我觉得神华是家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过了！将来有机会我还会再回来的。 I’ll be back！</p><p>网友：段老师您好，我目前已经全仓茅台半年了，我在想要不要调一部分仓位给泡泡玛特，望赐教。</p><p>大道：我今天还买了茅台啊，你会凌乱吗？(2026.5.7)</p><p><strong>3.关于经营：认可王宁格局，看好长期经营复利</strong></p><p>庶人哑士：在段总的带货下，《因为独特》一下子就火了，我在微信读书中留下的读书笔记突然被很多人点赞。</p><p>《因为独特》只是有助于理解泡泡的四本“书”之一，其他三本也非常有帮助。分别是：《玩潮：快乐即正义》、《超级IP孵化原理》、《泡泡玛特IPO招股书》。</p><p>大道：谢谢推荐的这几本书哈，确实对了解这个行业有点帮助，我有时间也尽量翻翻。虽然我觉得我已经大致蛮明白了，但多了解一些细节也是可以增添乐趣的。</p><p>庶人哑士：每个人的际遇、禀赋和悟性不太一样。您有丰富的实业经验，也有多次成功的投资经验，尤其是有成功投资游戏的经验可以迁移过来，理解泡泡挺容易的......您看懂王宁就像高山流水遇知音一样顺理成章的了。</p><p>大道：我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个“企业家”，我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干25年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。(2026.5.7)</p><p>关于段永平泡泡玛特近期言论，还可回顾此前文章：</p><p>1.突发！段永平要出手了</p><p>看点：段永平首次公开收回“不投资泡泡玛特”的表态，用“投资买未来现金流总量”的底层逻辑，解释重新审视泡泡玛特投资价值的原因。</p><p>2.段永平罕见评价一家公司是“3R”的机会</p><p>看点：段永平对泡泡玛特的深度看好核心表态，罕见给出“right business+right people+right price”兼具的3R投资机会评价。</p><p>并集中详解了他对泡泡玛特诚信经营、国际化、创始人王宁、风险等完整判断，是近期段看好泡泡玛特较为完整的逻辑合集。</p><p>3.段永平再谈茅台、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、泡泡玛特！</p><p>看点：段永平针对泡泡玛特的市场争议集中回应，涵盖跨界小家电、产品稀缺性下降、股价看空质疑、卖put入场方式等热点问题，并给出长期预判与持仓表态。</p><p><strong>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://focus.stockstar.com/SS2026050700027061.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633160691","content_text":"近日，段永平在雪球平台(ID：大道无形我有型)互动愈发频繁，持续分享对市场热点、企业价值及投资逻辑的深度思考。面对网友提问，他围绕AI存储行情、语录蒸馏争议、巴菲特现金储备策略，以及泡泡玛特国际化、调仓操作、创始人价值等话题逐一回应，观点直白通透、逻辑清晰，传递出其成熟的长期投资视角。为此，证星研究院整理了其最新互动内容，分享给大家。以下为主要内容：一、谈存储：网友：段总，你对现在这波存储行情怎么看？大道：说明ai确实厉害啊。(2026.5.5)二、谈蒸馏：大道：我知道很多人在蒸馏我过去的文字，但真的有大帮助吗？我没意见的，但亏钱怪罪龙虾就好。(2026.5.6)三、谈巴菲特现金储备：网友：段总是满仓主义者，如何看待巴菲特手握那么多现金？大道：如果你能理解老巴的话，在没有能力管理自己的钱的前提下，现金就买老巴的股票就好。(2026.5.6)四、关于泡泡玛特：1.谈国际化：不纠结市场体感，重在看懂企业与创始人网友：虽然我们作为外部人肯定没有王宁对泡泡玛特的理解深，但是王宁似乎觉得泡泡的国际化战略已经很成功了，这跟很多人对美国店铺的探店体感有差距？大道是否担心泡泡在美国市场热度衰退的问题？大道：没必要比王宁对泡泡玛特理解的更深刻，但比别人更理解王宁和泡泡玛特很可能是很重要的。(2026.5.6)2.调仓换股：神华换仓泡泡玛特，同步加仓茅台大道：我把我的神华都换了泡泡玛特了。我觉得神华是家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过了！将来有机会我还会再回来的。 I’ll be back！网友：段老师您好，我目前已经全仓茅台半年了，我在想要不要调一部分仓位给泡泡玛特，望赐教。大道：我今天还买了茅台啊，你会凌乱吗？(2026.5.7)3.关于经营：认可王宁格局，看好长期经营复利庶人哑士：在段总的带货下，《因为独特》一下子就火了，我在微信读书中留下的读书笔记突然被很多人点赞。《因为独特》只是有助于理解泡泡的四本“书”之一，其他三本也非常有帮助。分别是：《玩潮：快乐即正义》、《超级IP孵化原理》、《泡泡玛特IPO招股书》。大道：谢谢推荐的这几本书哈，确实对了解这个行业有点帮助，我有时间也尽量翻翻。虽然我觉得我已经大致蛮明白了，但多了解一些细节也是可以增添乐趣的。庶人哑士：每个人的际遇、禀赋和悟性不太一样。您有丰富的实业经验，也有多次成功的投资经验，尤其是有成功投资游戏的经验可以迁移过来，理解泡泡挺容易的......您看懂王宁就像高山流水遇知音一样顺理成章的了。大道：我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个“企业家”，我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干25年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。(2026.5.7)关于段永平泡泡玛特近期言论，还可回顾此前文章：1.突发！段永平要出手了看点：段永平首次公开收回“不投资泡泡玛特”的表态，用“投资买未来现金流总量”的底层逻辑，解释重新审视泡泡玛特投资价值的原因。2.段永平罕见评价一家公司是“3R”的机会看点：段永平对泡泡玛特的深度看好核心表态，罕见给出“right business+right people+right price”兼具的3R投资机会评价。并集中详解了他对泡泡玛特诚信经营、国际化、创始人王宁、风险等完整判断，是近期段看好泡泡玛特较为完整的逻辑合集。3.段永平再谈茅台、苹果、泡泡玛特！看点：段永平针对泡泡玛特的市场争议集中回应，涵盖跨界小家电、产品稀缺性下降、股价看空质疑、卖put入场方式等热点问题，并给出长期预判与持仓表态。PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561928732713248,"gmtCreate":1778221414193,"gmtModify":1778221416374,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561928732713248","repostId":"1137086781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137086781","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778214318,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137086781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-08 12:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股期权｜泡泡玛特受段永平加仓大涨，期权成交量罕见登顶；百度集团逆势走强，145港元认购期权居前","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137086781","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2006010938\">一、股票期权成交量</h2><p>5月8日，受外围市场调整影响，港股上午盘三大指数集体走低，恒生指数跌1.09%，国企指数跌0.63%，恒生科技指数跌1.07%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b2d6b07c464cf33b5f9c0fe9f491ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"146\"/></p><p>截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交超43万张，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>成交量罕见居首，期权成交超7.7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>名列次席，期权成交超7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>位居第三，期权成交近3.8万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171b9f65c854bb1cd7e9eadaec2f5b10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2290\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3428940790\">二、异动观察</h2><p>泡泡玛特盘中一度大涨逾8%，成交额超45亿港元。消息面上，5月7日，知名投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，其把煤炭股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>全部换成了潮玩公司泡泡玛特。值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。今年4月，段永平称 “我的泡泡玛特保险公司正式开张了”，并表示除非想法改变，后续会继续收集目标仓位。他提到，泡泡玛特最新财报的盈利表现激起了他的好奇心，为此连续数日研究这家公司，直言 “很久没有这种兴奋感了”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18529540dc85a3614f0f4cb1b77ca8b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超7.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为155港元的认沽期权成交居前，成交6741张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1e7946619a20bf29c1ae2b4eed5755\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2293\"/></p><p>百度集团涨超3%，成交额超20亿港元。消息面上，据证监会官网显示，昆仑芯(北京)科技股份有限公司于2026年5月7日正式启动科创板上市辅导，中国国际金融担任辅导机构。资料显示，今年1月2日，百度曾发布公告，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申请表格（A1表格），以申请批准昆仑芯股份于香港联交所主板上市及买卖。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1794141010fef9a2db8fe00a7720365\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fedfe71eeb9ca1db89d08f0d59a5722\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股期权｜泡泡玛特受段永平加仓大涨，期权成交量罕见登顶；百度集团逆势走强，145港元认购期权居前</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股期权｜泡泡玛特受段永平加仓大涨，期权成交量罕见登顶；百度集团逆势走强，145港元认购期权居前\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-08 12:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2006010938\">一、股票期权成交量</h2><p>5月8日，受外围市场调整影响，港股上午盘三大指数集体走低，恒生指数跌1.09%，国企指数跌0.63%，恒生科技指数跌1.07%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b2d6b07c464cf33b5f9c0fe9f491ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"146\"/></p><p>截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交超43万张，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>成交量罕见居首，期权成交超7.7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>名列次席，期权成交超7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>位居第三，期权成交近3.8万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171b9f65c854bb1cd7e9eadaec2f5b10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2290\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3428940790\">二、异动观察</h2><p>泡泡玛特盘中一度大涨逾8%，成交额超45亿港元。消息面上，5月7日，知名投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，其把煤炭股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>全部换成了潮玩公司泡泡玛特。值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。今年4月，段永平称 “我的泡泡玛特保险公司正式开张了”，并表示除非想法改变，后续会继续收集目标仓位。他提到，泡泡玛特最新财报的盈利表现激起了他的好奇心，为此连续数日研究这家公司，直言 “很久没有这种兴奋感了”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18529540dc85a3614f0f4cb1b77ca8b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超7.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为155港元的认沽期权成交居前，成交6741张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1e7946619a20bf29c1ae2b4eed5755\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2293\"/></p><p>百度集团涨超3%，成交额超20亿港元。消息面上，据证监会官网显示，昆仑芯(北京)科技股份有限公司于2026年5月7日正式启动科创板上市辅导，中国国际金融担任辅导机构。资料显示，今年1月2日，百度曾发布公告，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申请表格（A1表格），以申请批准昆仑芯股份于香港联交所主板上市及买卖。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1794141010fef9a2db8fe00a7720365\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fedfe71eeb9ca1db89d08f0d59a5722\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137086781","content_text":"一、股票期权成交量5月8日，受外围市场调整影响，港股上午盘三大指数集体走低，恒生指数跌1.09%，国企指数跌0.63%，恒生科技指数跌1.07%。截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交超43万张，其中，泡泡玛特成交量罕见居首，期权成交超7.7万张；腾讯控股名列次席，期权成交超7万张；百度集团-SW位居第三，期权成交近3.8万张。二、异动观察泡泡玛特盘中一度大涨逾8%，成交额超45亿港元。消息面上，5月7日，知名投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，其把煤炭股中国神华全部换成了潮玩公司泡泡玛特。值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。今年4月，段永平称 “我的泡泡玛特保险公司正式开张了”，并表示除非想法改变，后续会继续收集目标仓位。他提到，泡泡玛特最新财报的盈利表现激起了他的好奇心，为此连续数日研究这家公司，直言 “很久没有这种兴奋感了”。期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超7.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为155港元的认沽期权成交居前，成交6741张。百度集团涨超3%，成交额超20亿港元。消息面上，据证监会官网显示，昆仑芯(北京)科技股份有限公司于2026年5月7日正式启动科创板上市辅导，中国国际金融担任辅导机构。资料显示，今年1月2日，百度曾发布公告，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申请表格（A1表格），以申请批准昆仑芯股份于香港联交所主板上市及买卖。期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09888":1.5,"09992":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585733225373710","authorId":"3585733225373710","name":"熊大5811","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e757bd6946260d3a56c9852761631a28","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3585733225373710","idStr":"3585733225373710"},"content":"老段的话要听，当他天天吹一家公司的时候要小心。","text":"老段的话要听，当他天天吹一家公司的时候要小心。","html":"老段的话要听，当他天天吹一家公司的时候要小心。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561926358693864,"gmtCreate":1778220831302,"gmtModify":1778220833736,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561926358693864","repostId":"1107123169","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107123169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1778204624,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107123169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-08 09:43","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107123169","media":"异动解读","summary":"公司未来增长潜力巨大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a> 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，<strong>“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。</strong>段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49dbb90ecc3a61c90c1dfd70d1eb29b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-08 09:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a> 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，<strong>“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。</strong>段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49dbb90ecc3a61c90c1dfd70d1eb29b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dc37d452f250ce3fb402a1655ca971","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107123169","content_text":"周五， 泡泡玛特 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":560134599521536,"gmtCreate":1777783315758,"gmtModify":1777783318078,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他拿着钱不投资不分红","listText":"他拿着钱不投资不分红","text":"他拿着钱不投资不分红","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/560134599521536","repostId":"1142942685","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142942685","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777723335,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142942685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-02 20:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯克希尔Q1运营利润同比增长18%，现金储备再创纪录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142942685","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月2日，$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$哈撒韦：Q1营收936.75亿美元，上年同期为897.25亿美元，市场预期为892.74亿美元；净利润101.06亿美元，上年同期为46.03亿美元，市场预期为117.62亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦发布2026年第一季度业绩。财报显示，第一季度营收936.75亿美元，上年同期为897.25亿美元，市场预期为892.74亿美元；第一季度净利润101.06亿美元，上年同期为46.03亿美元，市场预期为117.62亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10eb78e76fff1a67161235269d69583d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"825\"/></p><p>第一季度保险承保业务运营收入17.2亿美元，同比增长29%；</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一季度保险投资业务运营收入26.8亿美元，同比下降7.4%；</p><p>第一季度能源公司运营收入11.1亿美元，同比增长1.5%；</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一季度投资净亏损为12.4亿美元，去年同期亏损为50.38亿美元；</p><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度运营利润增长，主要得益于保险业务承保业绩的全面改善。该公司第一季度运营利润为113.5亿美元，较上年同期的96.4亿美元增长18%。包括普通股投资损益在内的净利润从46亿美元增至101亿美元，翻了一倍多，合每股A类股7,027美元。伯克希尔表示，本季度回购了2.34亿美元自有股票，这是自2024年5月以来的首次回购。</p><p>第一季度末持有的固定收益证券投资公允价值达176.69亿美元（上年同期为178.16亿美元），其中，对美债、外国债券、企业债券的投资公允价值分别为38.8亿美元，123.91亿美元，11.9亿美元。</p><p>截至3月31日的股权投资总公允价值中，61%集中于美国运通、苹果、美国银行、雪佛龙和可口可乐。</p><p>在格雷格·阿贝尔担任首席执行官的第一个季度，伯克希尔现金储备跃升至历史最高水平，达到3970亿美元。在去年年底略有下降后，公司现金储备在第一季度大幅增加，因为在此期间净出售了81亿美元的股票。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯克希尔Q1运营利润同比增长18%，现金储备再创纪录</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯克希尔Q1运营利润同比增长18%，现金储备再创纪录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-02 20:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦发布2026年第一季度业绩。财报显示，第一季度营收936.75亿美元，上年同期为897.25亿美元，市场预期为892.74亿美元；第一季度净利润101.06亿美元，上年同期为46.03亿美元，市场预期为117.62亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10eb78e76fff1a67161235269d69583d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"825\"/></p><p>第一季度保险承保业务运营收入17.2亿美元，同比增长29%；</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一季度保险投资业务运营收入26.8亿美元，同比下降7.4%；</p><p>第一季度能源公司运营收入11.1亿美元，同比增长1.5%；</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一季度投资净亏损为12.4亿美元，去年同期亏损为50.38亿美元；</p><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度运营利润增长，主要得益于保险业务承保业绩的全面改善。该公司第一季度运营利润为113.5亿美元，较上年同期的96.4亿美元增长18%。包括普通股投资损益在内的净利润从46亿美元增至101亿美元，翻了一倍多，合每股A类股7,027美元。伯克希尔表示，本季度回购了2.34亿美元自有股票，这是自2024年5月以来的首次回购。</p><p>第一季度末持有的固定收益证券投资公允价值达176.69亿美元（上年同期为178.16亿美元），其中，对美债、外国债券、企业债券的投资公允价值分别为38.8亿美元，123.91亿美元，11.9亿美元。</p><p>截至3月31日的股权投资总公允价值中，61%集中于美国运通、苹果、美国银行、雪佛龙和可口可乐。</p><p>在格雷格·阿贝尔担任首席执行官的第一个季度，伯克希尔现金储备跃升至历史最高水平，达到3970亿美元。在去年年底略有下降后，公司现金储备在第一季度大幅增加，因为在此期间净出售了81亿美元的股票。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"BRKD":"Direxion Daily BRKB Bear 1X Shares","BRKW":"Roundhill BRKB WeeklyPay™ ETF","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRKC":"YieldMax BRK.B Option Income ETF","BRKU":"2倍做多BRKB ETF-Direxion","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142942685","content_text":"5月2日，伯克希尔哈撒韦发布2026年第一季度业绩。财报显示，第一季度营收936.75亿美元，上年同期为897.25亿美元，市场预期为892.74亿美元；第一季度净利润101.06亿美元，上年同期为46.03亿美元，市场预期为117.62亿美元。第一季度保险承保业务运营收入17.2亿美元，同比增长29%；第一季度保险投资业务运营收入26.8亿美元，同比下降7.4%；第一季度能源公司运营收入11.1亿美元，同比增长1.5%；第一季度投资净亏损为12.4亿美元，去年同期亏损为50.38亿美元；伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度运营利润增长，主要得益于保险业务承保业绩的全面改善。该公司第一季度运营利润为113.5亿美元，较上年同期的96.4亿美元增长18%。包括普通股投资损益在内的净利润从46亿美元增至101亿美元，翻了一倍多，合每股A类股7,027美元。伯克希尔表示，本季度回购了2.34亿美元自有股票，这是自2024年5月以来的首次回购。第一季度末持有的固定收益证券投资公允价值达176.69亿美元（上年同期为178.16亿美元），其中，对美债、外国债券、企业债券的投资公允价值分别为38.8亿美元，123.91亿美元，11.9亿美元。截至3月31日的股权投资总公允价值中，61%集中于美国运通、苹果、美国银行、雪佛龙和可口可乐。在格雷格·阿贝尔担任首席执行官的第一个季度，伯克希尔现金储备跃升至历史最高水平，达到3970亿美元。在去年年底略有下降后，公司现金储备在第一季度大幅增加，因为在此期间净出售了81亿美元的股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRKC":0.6,"BRK.B":2,"BRKD":0.6,"BRKU":0.6,"BRKW":0.6,"BRK.A":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":561928732713248,"gmtCreate":1778221414193,"gmtModify":1778221416374,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561928732713248","repostId":"1137086781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137086781","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778214318,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137086781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-08 12:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股期权｜泡泡玛特受段永平加仓大涨，期权成交量罕见登顶；百度集团逆势走强，145港元认购期权居前","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137086781","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2006010938\">一、股票期权成交量</h2><p>5月8日，受外围市场调整影响，港股上午盘三大指数集体走低，恒生指数跌1.09%，国企指数跌0.63%，恒生科技指数跌1.07%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b2d6b07c464cf33b5f9c0fe9f491ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"146\"/></p><p>截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交超43万张，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>成交量罕见居首，期权成交超7.7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>名列次席，期权成交超7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>位居第三，期权成交近3.8万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171b9f65c854bb1cd7e9eadaec2f5b10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2290\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3428940790\">二、异动观察</h2><p>泡泡玛特盘中一度大涨逾8%，成交额超45亿港元。消息面上，5月7日，知名投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，其把煤炭股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>全部换成了潮玩公司泡泡玛特。值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。今年4月，段永平称 “我的泡泡玛特保险公司正式开张了”，并表示除非想法改变，后续会继续收集目标仓位。他提到，泡泡玛特最新财报的盈利表现激起了他的好奇心，为此连续数日研究这家公司，直言 “很久没有这种兴奋感了”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18529540dc85a3614f0f4cb1b77ca8b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超7.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为155港元的认沽期权成交居前，成交6741张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1e7946619a20bf29c1ae2b4eed5755\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2293\"/></p><p>百度集团涨超3%，成交额超20亿港元。消息面上，据证监会官网显示，昆仑芯(北京)科技股份有限公司于2026年5月7日正式启动科创板上市辅导，中国国际金融担任辅导机构。资料显示，今年1月2日，百度曾发布公告，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申请表格（A1表格），以申请批准昆仑芯股份于香港联交所主板上市及买卖。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1794141010fef9a2db8fe00a7720365\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fedfe71eeb9ca1db89d08f0d59a5722\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股期权｜泡泡玛特受段永平加仓大涨，期权成交量罕见登顶；百度集团逆势走强，145港元认购期权居前</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股期权｜泡泡玛特受段永平加仓大涨，期权成交量罕见登顶；百度集团逆势走强，145港元认购期权居前\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-08 12:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2006010938\">一、股票期权成交量</h2><p>5月8日，受外围市场调整影响，港股上午盘三大指数集体走低，恒生指数跌1.09%，国企指数跌0.63%，恒生科技指数跌1.07%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b2d6b07c464cf33b5f9c0fe9f491ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"146\"/></p><p>截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交超43万张，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>成交量罕见居首，期权成交超7.7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>名列次席，期权成交超7万张；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>位居第三，期权成交近3.8万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171b9f65c854bb1cd7e9eadaec2f5b10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2290\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3428940790\">二、异动观察</h2><p>泡泡玛特盘中一度大涨逾8%，成交额超45亿港元。消息面上，5月7日，知名投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，其把煤炭股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>全部换成了潮玩公司泡泡玛特。值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。今年4月，段永平称 “我的泡泡玛特保险公司正式开张了”，并表示除非想法改变，后续会继续收集目标仓位。他提到，泡泡玛特最新财报的盈利表现激起了他的好奇心，为此连续数日研究这家公司，直言 “很久没有这种兴奋感了”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18529540dc85a3614f0f4cb1b77ca8b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超7.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为155港元的认沽期权成交居前，成交6741张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1e7946619a20bf29c1ae2b4eed5755\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2293\"/></p><p>百度集团涨超3%，成交额超20亿港元。消息面上，据证监会官网显示，昆仑芯(北京)科技股份有限公司于2026年5月7日正式启动科创板上市辅导，中国国际金融担任辅导机构。资料显示，今年1月2日，百度曾发布公告，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申请表格（A1表格），以申请批准昆仑芯股份于香港联交所主板上市及买卖。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1794141010fef9a2db8fe00a7720365\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fedfe71eeb9ca1db89d08f0d59a5722\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137086781","content_text":"一、股票期权成交量5月8日，受外围市场调整影响，港股上午盘三大指数集体走低，恒生指数跌1.09%，国企指数跌0.63%，恒生科技指数跌1.07%。截止午间收盘，港股期权半日成交超43万张，其中，泡泡玛特成交量罕见居首，期权成交超7.7万张；腾讯控股名列次席，期权成交超7万张；百度集团-SW位居第三，期权成交近3.8万张。二、异动观察泡泡玛特盘中一度大涨逾8%，成交额超45亿港元。消息面上，5月7日，知名投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，其把煤炭股中国神华全部换成了潮玩公司泡泡玛特。值得关注的是，段永平近期密集发声，多次在投资者社区提及泡泡玛特。今年4月，段永平称 “我的泡泡玛特保险公司正式开张了”，并表示除非想法改变，后续会继续收集目标仓位。他提到，泡泡玛特最新财报的盈利表现激起了他的好奇心，为此连续数日研究这家公司，直言 “很久没有这种兴奋感了”。期权方面，泡泡玛特半日成交超7.7万张，其中5月28日到期行使价为155港元的认沽期权成交居前，成交6741张。百度集团涨超3%，成交额超20亿港元。消息面上，据证监会官网显示，昆仑芯(北京)科技股份有限公司于2026年5月7日正式启动科创板上市辅导，中国国际金融担任辅导机构。资料显示，今年1月2日，百度曾发布公告，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申请表格（A1表格），以申请批准昆仑芯股份于香港联交所主板上市及买卖。期权方面，百度集团半日成交近3.8万张，其中5月8日到期行使价为145港元的认购期权成交居前，成交2563张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09888":1.5,"09992":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585733225373710","authorId":"3585733225373710","name":"熊大5811","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e757bd6946260d3a56c9852761631a28","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3585733225373710","authorIdStr":"3585733225373710"},"content":"老段的话要听，当他天天吹一家公司的时候要小心。","text":"老段的话要听，当他天天吹一家公司的时候要小心。","html":"老段的话要听，当他天天吹一家公司的时候要小心。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":506957824340280,"gmtCreate":1764749434600,"gmtModify":1764749436716,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTU\">$2倍做多MSTR ETF-T-Rex(MSTU)$</a> 这也太缺德了，十合一","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTU\">$2倍做多MSTR ETF-T-Rex(MSTU)$</a> 这也太缺德了，十合一","text":"$2倍做多MSTR ETF-T-Rex(MSTU)$ 这也太缺德了，十合一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506957824340280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556615128127343","authorId":"3556615128127343","name":"m3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d33ce6cbc4a5aff839764c02cd1d2f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556615128127343","authorIdStr":"3556615128127343"},"content":"10合一现在亏90多%，会爆仓吗？爆仓结果是啥啊","text":"10合一现在亏90多%，会爆仓吗？爆仓结果是啥啊","html":"10合一现在亏90多%，会爆仓吗？爆仓结果是啥啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590653711467176,"gmtCreate":1785204065564,"gmtModify":1785204067871,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"都不是一个量级天天讲故事","listText":"都不是一个量级天天讲故事","text":"都不是一个量级天天讲故事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590653711467176","repostId":"1187931355","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187931355","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785197923,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187931355?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-28 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187931355","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-28 08:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"NVYY":"GraniteShares 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ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187931355","content_text":"周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"WDCX":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"SK":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"07709":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDA":2,"MULL":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"MU":2,"NVDU":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"WDC":2,"ASMU":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"STX":2,"07788":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"SKHY":2,"HYNX":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SNDK":2,"DAMD":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"ASML":2,"NVDG":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"AMD":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300701053022496,"gmtCreate":1714432854922,"gmtModify":1714440668365,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1.市场对它定价太完美了，容不得半点不好的消息。 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1412ueeee)tfffgf","text":"绿里奇迹hiking图PS苏日去SSRskr里4G吧 1412ueeee)tfffgf","html":"绿里奇迹hiking图PS苏日去SSRskr里4G吧 1412ueeee)tfffgf"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573399953417560,"gmtCreate":1781019868747,"gmtModify":1781021178717,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他拥有的算力和我没有算力的权利相等？","listText":"他拥有的算力和我没有算力的权利相等？","text":"他拥有的算力和我没有算力的权利相等？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573399953417560","repostId":"2642746600","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2642746600","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股官方账号，专注让专业更简单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"1077578553","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7"},"pubTimestamp":1780999058,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2642746600?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-09 17:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642746600","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。AI平权的意义就在这里。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","content":"<html><body><p><strong>出品 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1077578553\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-09 17:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><strong>出品 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0426417589.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8touD4v5t9y","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642746600","content_text":"出品 | 凤凰网财经《封面》主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。以下内容整理自对话实录：凤凰网财经《封面》： AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？傅盛： 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFT":1.77,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573399613871272,"gmtCreate":1781019784631,"gmtModify":1781021178737,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"唬谁呢？","listText":"唬谁呢？","text":"唬谁呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573399613871272","repostId":"2642746600","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2642746600","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股官方账号，专注让专业更简单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"1077578553","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7"},"pubTimestamp":1780999058,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2642746600?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-09 17:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642746600","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。AI平权的意义就在这里。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","content":"<html><body><p><strong>出品 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n傅盛：AI带来平权，比尔·盖茨也就用GPT5.5丨凤凰《封面》\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1077578553\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-09 17:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><strong>出品 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网财经《封面》</strong></p><p><strong>主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪</strong></p><p>AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。</p><p><strong>以下内容整理自对话实录：</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经《封面》：</strong> AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？</p><p><strong>傅盛：</strong> 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。</p><p><strong>本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。</strong></p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0426417589.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8touD4v5t9y","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642746600","content_text":"出品 | 凤凰网财经《封面》主持人丨张涛 制片人丨李念雪AI是拉大还是抹平教育鸿沟？猎豹移动董事长兼CEO傅盛在凤凰网财经《封面》对话中给出肯定答案：AI肯定是抹平鸿沟。他举例说，比尔·盖茨用的也是同样的AI系统，一个月20美金的成本，你付得起，他也付得起，这就是平权。以下内容整理自对话实录：凤凰网财经《封面》： AI到底是抹平了教育鸿沟，还是拉大了教育鸿沟？傅盛： 它肯定是抹平。虽然名校还是有它的优势，但今天我们一样会找一些不是名校毕业的人。当年我能被筛选出来，就是互联网的崛起，否则我找工作也很难。AI让很多不是名校的人也有机会了。你看AI为什么是平权的？今天就比尔·盖茨也就用个GPT5.5，他也就是用这么一个人工智能系统，他的成本和你是一样的。你付得起一个月20美金，他付得起，你也付得起，它本质上就是平权。只有一个东西你能接触到我接触不到，这才不平权。AI平权的意义就在这里。每个人都有自己的聪明，用它也不是那么难，所以这肯定是平权。本文来源为凤凰网财经《封面》对话傅盛，完整视频内容在凤凰新闻客户端上线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFT":1.77,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565467790947592,"gmtCreate":1779087989320,"gmtModify":1779087991905,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565467790947592","repostId":"2634227824","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2634227824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778457360,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2634227824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-11 07:56","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"神话与隐忧，泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634227824","media":"中国企业家","summary":"泡泡玛特是能持续造血的IP平台，还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商？　　4月30日晚10点，泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在京东和天猫同步开售。　　3月25日，泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单：营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%；经调整净利润130.8亿元，增长284.5%；毛利率72.1%。　　截至5月8日收盘，泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。5月7日，段永平宣布清仓中国神华，全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/300/w550h550/20260511/a5ba-80a15edb55da905a0b8755f282204ec5.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>是能持续造血的IP平台，还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商？</p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">数据分析</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">中央财经大学 王紫炫 王金鑫</font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">赵艺萌 宋秉懋</font></font><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">（王彦超教授研究团队）</font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">文</font></font></font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">《中国企业家》记者 </font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">李艳艳</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">见习</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">编</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">辑</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|</font><font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">李原 </font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">编辑</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">何伊凡</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"align-right\">　　<font cms-style=\"align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">头图来源</font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\"><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold align-right\">|中企图库</font></font></font></p>\n<p>　　一只毛绒精灵，两种极端叙事。</p>\n<p>　　4月30日晚10点，泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱，两个版本各限量999台，均定价5999元。截至开售，京东平台预约人数超6万，开售即罄。</p>\n<p>　　二手市场瞬时沸腾。有媒体报道，得物平台成交价一度冲至20999元。还有购入者直言，冰箱不会插电，就摆在家里的玩具柜旁边。</p>\n<p>　　6天后的5月6日，泡泡玛特创始人、CEO王宁现身一档播客节目，称内部从去年LABUBU火爆时期，就在“理性灭火”。他透露，公司为了防止流量透支，暂停了LABUBU的新品发布、线下营销和多类开店、授权的合作，很多原定2025年推出的产品被推到了2026年。</p>\n<p>　　一脚刹车下去，踩出两种现实。</p>\n<p>　　3月25日，泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单：营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%；经调整净利润130.8亿元，增长284.5%；毛利率72.1%。财报发布当日股价暴跌22.5%，第二天继续下跌10.46%，两个交易日累计跌幅超30%。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/79/w550h329/20260511/9e8e-6f1a649d9b784856be9daeadd9fecc01.jpg\"/></div>\n<p>　　摄影：吴莹</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">截至5月8日收盘，泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。虽近期走势有所修复，但股价较去年8月339.80港元的历史高点，已跌去一半，对应市值蒸发超过2000亿港元。</font></p>\n<p>　　就在市场担忧泡泡玛特的增长神话即将落幕之际，剧情发生戏剧性反转。以价值投资著称的段永平，从3月起，便在“雪球”上力挺泡泡玛特，宣称自己是王宁的粉丝。5月7日，段永平宣布清仓<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">中国神华</a></span><span></span>，全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。</p>\n<p>　　市场的恐慌与段永平逆势出手形成张力对照，也让泡泡玛特的长期价值更值得被深度拆解。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">过去一年，泡泡玛特几乎踩中了所有风口。</font><font>LABUBU进化为全球现象级消费符号，THE MONSTERS系列年营收冲过140亿元，直接拉动公司毛利率突破72%。海外门店一年净增100家，美洲市场收入同比增长748%，TikTok渠道登顶美国销售榜。员工规模破万，公司市值高点突破4200亿港元。</font></p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">但高速运转的机器内部，压力同步累积。</font><font>泡泡玛特库存从15亿元膨胀至54亿元，现金转换周期拉长了近一个月，利润向现金流的转化效率出现下滑。当增速从三位数回落到财报会上王宁口中的“不低于20%”，市场对这家公司的定价逻辑亦被重置。</font></p>\n<p>　　当一台跑车从全速冲刺切到巡航模式，发动机每个异响都会被放大。王宁挥刀向内，与热潮相向而行。他给2025年的公司业绩打90到95分，给组织管理只打了70分。过去一年的业绩增长被他比作“新手开F1”，“只有别人认为你很爽，实际上自己压力很大”，2026年则是“进站维修年”。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/143/w550h393/20260511/fae5-18e98e4beec25a4a0385447370f35e11.png\"/></div>\n<p cms-style=\"legend\">　　王宁  来源：受访者</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论。这期间，王宁还要面临一个更本质的问题：一个组织，如何与高速增长形成的扩张惯性对抗？</font></p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">泡泡玛特到底是一家能持续造血、穿越周期的IP平台，还是一家恰好撞上风口、终将回归平庸的爆款制造商？从财务角度看，真相介于两者之间。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。</font></p>\n<p>　　本文将基于财务视角，从估值逻辑、增长结构、商业模式三个维度，拆解这场价值重估的成因和边界。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/0075-a5d7cd0b7305fbc522d27b30bf8c3c27.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">市场慌了：一个满分答卷，三个不安信号</font></p>\n<p>　　资本市场交易的从来不是过去，是对未来的出价。泡泡玛特3月25日的财报，释放了三个让投资者迅速行动的信号。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">第一个信号，是增速指引的落差。</font></p>\n<p>　　2025年营收增速184.7%，王宁在财报会上给出的2026年增长目标是“不低于20%”。从三位数骤降到20%区间，这个落差直接击穿了泡泡玛特作为成长股的估值基础。</p>\n<p>　　<font>在现金流折现模型的框架下，当市场将高速增长期假设从5年压缩为3~5年、将永续增长率从5%至8%调降至3%至5%，企业估值会发生系统性下移。</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">以泡泡玛特为例，按狂热期参数估算的估值量级可以高达3.8万亿港元，切换至理性假设后降至约2200亿港元。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/744/w550h194/20260511/aa7c-572b3af97bb2637ac75bd9a376ded9cf.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">第二个信号，是371亿元还“差了一口气”。</font></p>\n<p>　　2025年泡泡玛特371.2亿元的实际营收，比市场普遍预期的379.6亿元少了约8亿元。放在平时，这点差距无人在意。但在市场情绪紧绷的节点上，业绩和指引双双不及预期，直接动摇了投资者对盈利能见度的信心。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">第三个信号，是机构在有序撤离。</font></p>\n<p>　　<font>财报发布当日，卖空成交额高达46.3亿港元，创上市以来新高。花旗银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>等外资席位是主要的净卖出方，南向资金却反向持续净买入。多空双方的激烈分歧，说明一个问题：</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">泡泡玛特正站在估值范式切换的十字路口，有人看到泡沫破裂，有人看到错杀机会。</font></p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">整体来看，通过DCF（现金流折现）模型重估企业价值，此次股价回调更像一次迟到的估值与基本面的重新匹配。</font></p>\n<p>　　回顾2025年，泡泡玛特股价从年初的约90港元，最高飙升至339.80港元，最高涨幅超350%。这一涨势背后，是市场对其“IP神话”“全球化突破”“品类升级”的过度乐观预期，推动估值脱离基本面形成溢价。如今的回调，也是市场从狂热期假设向理性调整后，假设切换的必然结果。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/153/w550h403/20260511/1a18-872a01e8c2121492adafecf6c8a4551e.png\"/></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/4004-90567605141b0d78424c2af9e21f4073.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">增长模式“变重”：钱去哪儿了？</font></p>\n<p>　　如果增速指引是导火索，资产负债表和现金流量表细节才是炸药。从财报来看，泡泡玛特的利润表依然光芒万丈，但增长质量已出现边际变化。</p>\n<p>　　<font>存货的膨胀速度最为直观。</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">2025年末存货54.73亿元，较上年同期的15.25亿元增长258.9%，远超184.7%的营收增速。存货周转天数从100.98天拉长到121.63天，周转率从3.56次降到2.96次。货品生产出来的速度，已经快过卖出去的速度。</font></p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特库存已处于高位，一旦核心IP热度回落，库存压力可能从增长推力，转为去化压力乃至减值风险。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/98/w550h348/20260511/3773-8bd0ae3bc4c9828843d0e647357ccb8f.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font>更值得关注的，是</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">利润向现金流的转化效率。2025年净利润127.76亿元，同比增长308.8%。但经营活动现金流净额只有108.65亿元，增速119.3%，明显落后于利润增速。</font><font>经营现金流与净利润的比值，从2024年的1.59倍降至0.85倍。每赚1元账面利润，实际回笼现金从1.59元缩水到0.85元。</font></p>\n<p>　　钱去哪了？</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">泡泡玛特的营运资本变动从正2.46亿元转为负35.50亿元，大量现金被锁定在库存和经营性项目里。</font><font>现金转换周期也拉长了。应收账款周转天数从11.03天降到6.78天，回款效率实际上在改善。但应付账款周转天数从60.49天降到49.86天，意味着公司对上游供应商付款加快，没有用延长账期缓冲现金压力。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/134/w550h384/20260511/c256-d5c0d1e17a4c6109a0afc929a22a21d5.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　这一变化至少说明，在业务快速扩张阶段，公司未能有效借助供应链信用对冲营运资本占用，对自有资金的依赖反而有所增强。</p>\n<p>　　<font>综合下来，公司的现金转换周期从51.52天拉长到了78.55天。</font><font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">对一家处于高增长阶段，且估值高度依赖未来扩张预期的消费公司而言，现金转换周期拉长往往比单纯的利润波动更值得警惕。因为这意味着未来每新增一单位收入，需要占用更多资金去支撑。</font></p>\n<p>　　对于高估值成长股而言，市场最敏感的往往不是利润绝对值，而是利润的兑现质量。利润增长当然会提升估值想象力，但如果现金流跟不上、营运资本持续吞噬现金，那么市场就会开始质疑这种增长究竟能维持多久，又需要付出多大代价。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特2025年财报揭示出增长模式的切换。利润表依然强劲，但资产负债表与现金流量表的压力同步上升。此前市场将其视为高毛利、高周转、高弹性的IP消费公司，随着库存、营运资本和现金转换周期同步承压，市场已转向以“重营运约束”视角审视其增长路径。</p>\n<p>　　综合来看，库存增速超过收入增速，存货周转放缓，营运资本大量消耗现金，现金转换周期延长，经营现金流增速明显落后于净利润增速……这些指标尚未构成财务风险，公司流动比率和速动比率仍处于安全区间，但意味着增长模式在发生变化，泡泡玛特正从“轻盈爆发”转入“负重前行”。</p>\n<p>　　特别是当管理层对增速预期也回归到20%区间，市场估值的锚点就会从利润增速，转向资产周转效率和现金流兑现质量。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/169c-e99199e6199eb44ed567ce626904f7c5.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">等待下一个LABUBU：一个爆款撑起的增长，能走多远？</font></p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特以IP为核心，围绕全球艺术家挖掘、IP孵化运营、消费者触达、潮玩文化推广、关联产业投资整合五个领域，构建了覆盖潮流玩具全产业链的综合运营平台。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/17/w550h267/20260511/ddd0-2b9e9266a95db0651207a1b169151d26.png\"/></div>\n<p cms-style=\"legend\">　　数据来源：公司招股书、业务数据等公开渠道整理</p>\n<p>　　市场对泡泡玛特的定价分歧，本质上是两种商业认知的角力。</p>\n<p>　　看多者在绘制一张IP平台公司的蓝图，认为其已构建起具有高黏性的用户资产与多元IP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>。而看空者则在复盘一部爆款周期股的剧本，认为潮玩消费热度易逝，难以穿越周期。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特的中国内地累计注册会员总数，从2021年末的1958万跃升至2025年末的7258万，5年间增长超过270%。公司的核心销售几乎全部来源于其会员体系，会员贡献销售占比始终保持在90%以上，2025年更是高达93.7%。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">复购率虽然有所波动，但在2025年显著回升至55.7%，显示出泡泡玛特的高度会员黏性和忠诚度。这意味着，泡泡玛特卖的不再是单纯的玩具，而是一张通往年轻世代情感消费的门票。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/799/w550h249/20260511/96a4-c7a9390ddec0b546b20fa642f9d2ed8c.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　具体来看：</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">1.LABUBU：半壁江山与偶然性难题</font></p>\n<p>　　THE MONSTERS系列2025年营收141.61亿元，同比增长365.72%，泡泡玛特第一个百亿级IP就此诞生，它的营收增量贡献占公司全年增量近一半。毛绒产品定价高于传统盲盒，叠加海外商品的更高溢价，直接拉高公司整体毛利率至72.10%。</p>\n<p>　　但爆款的偶然性摆在那里。王宁多次公开表达，LABUBU的全球爆红始于意外明星效应，“意外爆款”难以标准化复制。资本市场始终在审慎怀疑：泡泡玛特能不能持续孵化出下一个同等体量的IP？随着THE MONSTERS 4.0系列发售和供给量放大，部分普通款在二级市场已跌破官方售价，IP的金融炒作属性正在弱化。</p>\n<p>　　今年5月，王宁接受专访时透露，公司在LABUBU热度最高时主动暂停新品发布、线下营销和多类对外合作，“让它自然降温反而能延长生命周期”。这说明，管理层已意识到超级IP热度的脆弱性，选择主动控速。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">2.IP矩阵：一超多强与结构性断层</font></p>\n<p>　　从表面看，泡泡玛特已构建起庞大的IP矩阵。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/77/w550h327/20260511/ff7b-60a299acff41c7929a20012aa1be745f.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　2025年，公司17个IP收入过亿，SKULLPANDA（35.40亿元）、CRYBABY（29.29亿元）、MOLLY（28.97亿元）、DIMOO（27.77亿元）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300256\">星星</a>人（20.56亿元）等6个IP进入20亿俱乐部。</p>\n<p>　　但拆开看，第二梯队离领头羊差得还是太远。SKULLPANDA与LABUBU的营收差距高达106亿元，几乎是一个中型IP的全年体量。一旦LABUBU增速放缓，其他IP难以平滑公司整体增长曲线。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">新老IP的增速分化也让人警醒。2024年签约的星星人，2025年营收暴增1601.81%至20.56亿元，展现了泡泡玛特的IP孵化潜能。但经典IP MOLLY同期增速只有38.41%，显著低于公司整体水平。</font></p>\n<p>　　成熟IP消费群体趋于稳定，新鲜感驱动的增量动能正在衰减。单纯靠形象迭代，能不能维持长期高增长？这是泡泡玛特绕不开的问题。</p>\n<p>　　MOLLY的“先例”可资借鉴。2017年，MOLLY一度占泡泡玛特自有品牌收入89.4%，撑起公司近乎全部增长。随后热度回落，收入占比在2018年降至62.9%，2019年进一步降到32.9%。</p>\n<p>　　2021年高点后，泡泡玛特股价从70多港元一度跌到不足10港元。当前LABUBU的收入占比已近40%，成为新的超级顶流，是否可能会重蹈MOLLY覆辙？一旦其热度褪去，公司能否快速找到下一个接替者？</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">3．海外市场：高基数上的增速换挡</font></p>\n<p>　　海外是2025年泡泡玛特业绩的重要引擎：海外收入162.68亿元，同比增长291.89%，营收占比从31.80%升至43.80%。美洲市场收入68.06亿元，增长748.40%；欧洲市场收入14.51亿元，增长506.30%。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/45/w550h295/20260511/3a61-7a492c3953cef15a07298609ad977931.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　但高基数压力已在2026年第一季度兑现。彭博社援引Bloomberg Second Measure信用卡交易数据，泡泡玛特美国市场1月同比增长130%，2月降至41%，3月同比转负，下降45%。分析师指出，新品集中在1至2月上线，动能快速衰减，消费者对非LABUBU IP产品的接受度仍有限。</p>\n<p>　　高速增长背后，增速边际放缓的隐忧已经显现，尤其是运营复杂性持续提升，海外市场的快速拓店，对供应链响应速度、本地化营销能力、国际化人才储备提出了更高要求。粗放式扩张之后，运营效率的提升将成为泡泡玛特海外业务持续增长的关键。</p>\n<p>　　管理层已着手调整北美策略。据中银国际4月专家访谈纪要，北美团队2025年侧重铺货与开店，产品供给与本地消费偏好存在错配。修复方向包括：签约北美本地艺术家开发产品、提升墨西哥工厂产能覆盖约85%的北美供应、从线上渠道转向旗舰店大店体验驱动品牌认知。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/32/w550h282/20260511/dbea-47214db0334b7ae88d49aaefbf1ad76e.png\"/></div>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold\">增长与稀缺的悖论：IP能火多久？</font></p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特长期维持的超高毛利率，根源在于情感溢价，而情感溢价的核心支撑是稀缺性。这种稀缺性带来的收藏属性，更接近经济学中的“凡勃伦”商品，稀缺性越强、溢价越高，吸引力反而越大。</p>\n<p>　　回顾近5年业绩，泡泡玛特毛利率从2021年的61.4%攀升至2025年的72.1%，靠的就是头部IP爆款效应和稀缺机制——但商业扩张要求持续扩产放量。</p>\n<p>　　2025年LABUBU月产能提升至5000万件，大规模铺货直接导致二级市场溢价收窄。早期MOLLY隐藏款溢价可达10倍以上，如今多数系列已缩水至2至3倍，部分款式跌破发行价。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论：要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。</font></p>\n<p>　　王宁曾说：“我们的成功不是盲盒的成功，而是商业和艺术平衡的成功。艺术是追求独特的，但商业是追求普遍的，这是一个矛盾，而我们做的事情是尽量做到平衡。”当规模扩张的速度越过平衡的临界点，这个矛盾以前所未有的锐度暴露出来。</p>\n<p>　　潮玩行业有一条规律：IP生命周期普遍走孵化、成长、成熟、衰退的曲线，爆款平均热度周期约18到24个月。绝大多数IP停留在形象驱动、产品变现的浅层，缺乏长期叙事支撑与情感内核，难以穿越周期成为经典。这是行业IP生命周期的“阿喀琉斯之踵”，也是泡泡玛特无法回避的结构性短板。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/786/w550h236/20260511/7a30-d03c552e53ca78a0f4715aeefb46ed6d.png\"/></div>\n<p cms-style=\"legend\">　　图片来源：<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a></span><span></span>研究部</p>\n<p>　　与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>等全球IP巨头成熟的“内容先行、世界观打底”模式相比，泡泡玛特的IP运营路径是“形象出圈、盲盒爆卖、多品类延伸”。消费者对LABUBU、MOLLY们的喜爱，更多停留在视觉和情绪层面，缺少对角色的深度认同。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特显然意识到了这一短板，近年已明显加大内容与场景投入：宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>影业合作，为LABUBU打造真人动画电影。推进POP LAND主题乐园1.5期开业，同时布局小家电、甜品、饰品等多元业态，试图用场景延长IP寿命。</p>\n<p>　　但电影能不能拍好，还是未知数。尤其是LABUBU的爆火，同样依赖设计风格与社交传播，而非基于成熟故事积累，将一个视觉符号转化为能打动大众的银幕故事，难度远超产品迭代。泡泡玛特擅长的是IP工业化孵化、产品落地与渠道销售，在影视编剧、世界观构建、长内容运营上几乎从零起步，内容工业化能力尚待培育。</p>\n<p>　　不过，王宁在近期的专访中给出了不同的解释。他将LABUBU比作“梅西式的体育明星”，不是迪士尼式的影视角色。他认为LABUBU不靠故事驱动，靠的是普世审美形象、高频产品迭代和长期陪伴感。“人们不需要梅西有故事，他站在那里就能让人开心。LABUBU的逻辑是一样的。”</p>\n<p>　　这个定位将泡泡玛特的IP模式与迪士尼做了明确切割：前者走“形象即内容”的体育明星路线，后者走“故事驱动形象”的影视工业路线。哪条路能支撑更长的IP生命周期，目前尚无定论。但至少，这个比喻为理解泡泡玛特的IP模式，提供了一个新刻度。</p>\n<p>　　泡泡玛特的股价重挫，是一次估值范式的切换。市场正在将它从不可预测的爆发式增长股，重新定价为可见度更高的稳健成长股。当增速从三位数回落至20%区间，现金流质量、盈利能力和护城河宽度，将成为更重要的估值定价因子。</p>\n<p>　　<font cms-style=\"strong-Bold color330\">未来，市场对泡泡玛特的关注点将聚焦于三个指标：单一IP营收占比能否降到30%以下，证明平台的抗风险能力；海外单店模型能否交出精细化数据，验证全球化不是“烧钱换增长”；内容建设能否取得实质进展，为IP注入穿越周期的文化内核。</font></p>\n<p>　　“尊重时间，尊重经营。”王宁说过的这八个字，或许正是潮玩产业穿越周期的注脚。迪士尼花了数十年建立起米奇的文化地位，三丽鸥耕耘<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Hello</a> Kitty也超过半个世纪。泡泡玛特从2010年成立到MOLLY破圈用了近8年，LABUBU全球爆火还不到2年。</p>\n<p>　　但现在，市场不只看过去了。经历估值泡沫与理性回归之后，真正具备IP运营能力的公司，终会赢得“时间的复利”。在此之前，市场的每一次热情，都可能被理性预期浇上一盆冷水。</p>\n<p>　　（除特别标注外，文中图表所用原始数据均来自上市公司财报等公开渠道，经整理计算后得出。）</p>\n<p>　　参考资料：</p>\n<p>　　1．李翔．《2026，再访王宁》</p>\n<p>　　2．李翔．《因为独特：泡泡玛特创始人王宁从杂货铺到IP世界的跋涉》，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300788\">中信出版</a></span><span></span>社，2024年10月出版</p>\n<p>　　3．泡泡玛特2025年年度业绩公告（港交所披露）</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>神话与隐忧，泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n神话与隐忧，泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-11 07:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvv9323022.shtml><strong>中国企业家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泡泡玛特是能持续造血的IP平台，还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商？\n　　数据分析|中央财经大学 王紫炫 王金鑫\n　　赵艺萌 宋秉懋（王彦超教授研究团队）\n　　文|《中国企业家》记者 李艳艳\n　　见习编辑|李原 编辑|何伊凡\n　　头图来源|中企图库\n　　一只毛绒精灵，两种极端叙事。\n　　4月30日晚10点，泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在京东和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱，两个版本各限量...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvv9323022.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" 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CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvv9323022.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2634227824","content_text":"泡泡玛特是能持续造血的IP平台，还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商？\n　　数据分析|中央财经大学 王紫炫 王金鑫\n　　赵艺萌 宋秉懋（王彦超教授研究团队）\n　　文|《中国企业家》记者 李艳艳\n　　见习编辑|李原 编辑|何伊凡\n　　头图来源|中企图库\n　　一只毛绒精灵，两种极端叙事。\n　　4月30日晚10点，泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在京东和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱，两个版本各限量999台，均定价5999元。截至开售，京东平台预约人数超6万，开售即罄。\n　　二手市场瞬时沸腾。有媒体报道，得物平台成交价一度冲至20999元。还有购入者直言，冰箱不会插电，就摆在家里的玩具柜旁边。\n　　6天后的5月6日，泡泡玛特创始人、CEO王宁现身一档播客节目，称内部从去年LABUBU火爆时期，就在“理性灭火”。他透露，公司为了防止流量透支，暂停了LABUBU的新品发布、线下营销和多类开店、授权的合作，很多原定2025年推出的产品被推到了2026年。\n　　一脚刹车下去，踩出两种现实。\n　　3月25日，泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单：营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%；经调整净利润130.8亿元，增长284.5%；毛利率72.1%。财报发布当日股价暴跌22.5%，第二天继续下跌10.46%，两个交易日累计跌幅超30%。\n\n　　摄影：吴莹\n　　截至5月8日收盘，泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。虽近期走势有所修复，但股价较去年8月339.80港元的历史高点，已跌去一半，对应市值蒸发超过2000亿港元。\n　　就在市场担忧泡泡玛特的增长神话即将落幕之际，剧情发生戏剧性反转。以价值投资著称的段永平，从3月起，便在“雪球”上力挺泡泡玛特，宣称自己是王宁的粉丝。5月7日，段永平宣布清仓中国神华，全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。\n　　市场的恐慌与段永平逆势出手形成张力对照，也让泡泡玛特的长期价值更值得被深度拆解。\n　　过去一年，泡泡玛特几乎踩中了所有风口。LABUBU进化为全球现象级消费符号，THE MONSTERS系列年营收冲过140亿元，直接拉动公司毛利率突破72%。海外门店一年净增100家，美洲市场收入同比增长748%，TikTok渠道登顶美国销售榜。员工规模破万，公司市值高点突破4200亿港元。\n　　但高速运转的机器内部，压力同步累积。泡泡玛特库存从15亿元膨胀至54亿元，现金转换周期拉长了近一个月，利润向现金流的转化效率出现下滑。当增速从三位数回落到财报会上王宁口中的“不低于20%”，市场对这家公司的定价逻辑亦被重置。\n　　当一台跑车从全速冲刺切到巡航模式，发动机每个异响都会被放大。王宁挥刀向内，与热潮相向而行。他给2025年的公司业绩打90到95分，给组织管理只打了70分。过去一年的业绩增长被他比作“新手开F1”，“只有别人认为你很爽，实际上自己压力很大”，2026年则是“进站维修年”。\n\n　　王宁  来源：受访者\n　　要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论。这期间，王宁还要面临一个更本质的问题：一个组织，如何与高速增长形成的扩张惯性对抗？\n　　泡泡玛特到底是一家能持续造血、穿越周期的IP平台，还是一家恰好撞上风口、终将回归平庸的爆款制造商？从财务角度看，真相介于两者之间。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。\n　　本文将基于财务视角，从估值逻辑、增长结构、商业模式三个维度，拆解这场价值重估的成因和边界。\n\n　　市场慌了：一个满分答卷，三个不安信号\n　　资本市场交易的从来不是过去，是对未来的出价。泡泡玛特3月25日的财报，释放了三个让投资者迅速行动的信号。\n　　第一个信号，是增速指引的落差。\n　　2025年营收增速184.7%，王宁在财报会上给出的2026年增长目标是“不低于20%”。从三位数骤降到20%区间，这个落差直接击穿了泡泡玛特作为成长股的估值基础。\n　　在现金流折现模型的框架下，当市场将高速增长期假设从5年压缩为3~5年、将永续增长率从5%至8%调降至3%至5%，企业估值会发生系统性下移。以泡泡玛特为例，按狂热期参数估算的估值量级可以高达3.8万亿港元，切换至理性假设后降至约2200亿港元。\n\n　　第二个信号，是371亿元还“差了一口气”。\n　　2025年泡泡玛特371.2亿元的实际营收，比市场普遍预期的379.6亿元少了约8亿元。放在平时，这点差距无人在意。但在市场情绪紧绷的节点上，业绩和指引双双不及预期，直接动摇了投资者对盈利能见度的信心。\n　　第三个信号，是机构在有序撤离。\n　　财报发布当日，卖空成交额高达46.3亿港元，创上市以来新高。花旗银行、国泰君安国际等外资席位是主要的净卖出方，南向资金却反向持续净买入。多空双方的激烈分歧，说明一个问题：泡泡玛特正站在估值范式切换的十字路口，有人看到泡沫破裂，有人看到错杀机会。\n　　整体来看，通过DCF（现金流折现）模型重估企业价值，此次股价回调更像一次迟到的估值与基本面的重新匹配。\n　　回顾2025年，泡泡玛特股价从年初的约90港元，最高飙升至339.80港元，最高涨幅超350%。这一涨势背后，是市场对其“IP神话”“全球化突破”“品类升级”的过度乐观预期，推动估值脱离基本面形成溢价。如今的回调，也是市场从狂热期假设向理性调整后，假设切换的必然结果。\n\n\n　　增长模式“变重”：钱去哪儿了？\n　　如果增速指引是导火索，资产负债表和现金流量表细节才是炸药。从财报来看，泡泡玛特的利润表依然光芒万丈，但增长质量已出现边际变化。\n　　存货的膨胀速度最为直观。2025年末存货54.73亿元，较上年同期的15.25亿元增长258.9%，远超184.7%的营收增速。存货周转天数从100.98天拉长到121.63天，周转率从3.56次降到2.96次。货品生产出来的速度，已经快过卖出去的速度。\n　　泡泡玛特库存已处于高位，一旦核心IP热度回落，库存压力可能从增长推力，转为去化压力乃至减值风险。\n\n　　更值得关注的，是利润向现金流的转化效率。2025年净利润127.76亿元，同比增长308.8%。但经营活动现金流净额只有108.65亿元，增速119.3%，明显落后于利润增速。经营现金流与净利润的比值，从2024年的1.59倍降至0.85倍。每赚1元账面利润，实际回笼现金从1.59元缩水到0.85元。\n　　钱去哪了？\n　　泡泡玛特的营运资本变动从正2.46亿元转为负35.50亿元，大量现金被锁定在库存和经营性项目里。现金转换周期也拉长了。应收账款周转天数从11.03天降到6.78天，回款效率实际上在改善。但应付账款周转天数从60.49天降到49.86天，意味着公司对上游供应商付款加快，没有用延长账期缓冲现金压力。\n\n　　这一变化至少说明，在业务快速扩张阶段，公司未能有效借助供应链信用对冲营运资本占用，对自有资金的依赖反而有所增强。\n　　综合下来，公司的现金转换周期从51.52天拉长到了78.55天。对一家处于高增长阶段，且估值高度依赖未来扩张预期的消费公司而言，现金转换周期拉长往往比单纯的利润波动更值得警惕。因为这意味着未来每新增一单位收入，需要占用更多资金去支撑。\n　　对于高估值成长股而言，市场最敏感的往往不是利润绝对值，而是利润的兑现质量。利润增长当然会提升估值想象力，但如果现金流跟不上、营运资本持续吞噬现金，那么市场就会开始质疑这种增长究竟能维持多久，又需要付出多大代价。\n　　泡泡玛特2025年财报揭示出增长模式的切换。利润表依然强劲，但资产负债表与现金流量表的压力同步上升。此前市场将其视为高毛利、高周转、高弹性的IP消费公司，随着库存、营运资本和现金转换周期同步承压，市场已转向以“重营运约束”视角审视其增长路径。\n　　综合来看，库存增速超过收入增速，存货周转放缓，营运资本大量消耗现金，现金转换周期延长，经营现金流增速明显落后于净利润增速……这些指标尚未构成财务风险，公司流动比率和速动比率仍处于安全区间，但意味着增长模式在发生变化，泡泡玛特正从“轻盈爆发”转入“负重前行”。\n　　特别是当管理层对增速预期也回归到20%区间，市场估值的锚点就会从利润增速，转向资产周转效率和现金流兑现质量。\n\n　　等待下一个LABUBU：一个爆款撑起的增长，能走多远？\n　　泡泡玛特以IP为核心，围绕全球艺术家挖掘、IP孵化运营、消费者触达、潮玩文化推广、关联产业投资整合五个领域，构建了覆盖潮流玩具全产业链的综合运营平台。\n\n　　数据来源：公司招股书、业务数据等公开渠道整理\n　　市场对泡泡玛特的定价分歧，本质上是两种商业认知的角力。\n　　看多者在绘制一张IP平台公司的蓝图，认为其已构建起具有高黏性的用户资产与多元IP矩阵。而看空者则在复盘一部爆款周期股的剧本，认为潮玩消费热度易逝，难以穿越周期。\n　　泡泡玛特的中国内地累计注册会员总数，从2021年末的1958万跃升至2025年末的7258万，5年间增长超过270%。公司的核心销售几乎全部来源于其会员体系，会员贡献销售占比始终保持在90%以上，2025年更是高达93.7%。\n　　复购率虽然有所波动，但在2025年显著回升至55.7%，显示出泡泡玛特的高度会员黏性和忠诚度。这意味着，泡泡玛特卖的不再是单纯的玩具，而是一张通往年轻世代情感消费的门票。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化，但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明，这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。\n\n　　具体来看：\n　　1.LABUBU：半壁江山与偶然性难题\n　　THE MONSTERS系列2025年营收141.61亿元，同比增长365.72%，泡泡玛特第一个百亿级IP就此诞生，它的营收增量贡献占公司全年增量近一半。毛绒产品定价高于传统盲盒，叠加海外商品的更高溢价，直接拉高公司整体毛利率至72.10%。\n　　但爆款的偶然性摆在那里。王宁多次公开表达，LABUBU的全球爆红始于意外明星效应，“意外爆款”难以标准化复制。资本市场始终在审慎怀疑：泡泡玛特能不能持续孵化出下一个同等体量的IP？随着THE MONSTERS 4.0系列发售和供给量放大，部分普通款在二级市场已跌破官方售价，IP的金融炒作属性正在弱化。\n　　今年5月，王宁接受专访时透露，公司在LABUBU热度最高时主动暂停新品发布、线下营销和多类对外合作，“让它自然降温反而能延长生命周期”。这说明，管理层已意识到超级IP热度的脆弱性，选择主动控速。\n　　2.IP矩阵：一超多强与结构性断层\n　　从表面看，泡泡玛特已构建起庞大的IP矩阵。\n\n　　2025年，公司17个IP收入过亿，SKULLPANDA（35.40亿元）、CRYBABY（29.29亿元）、MOLLY（28.97亿元）、DIMOO（27.77亿元）、星星人（20.56亿元）等6个IP进入20亿俱乐部。\n　　但拆开看，第二梯队离领头羊差得还是太远。SKULLPANDA与LABUBU的营收差距高达106亿元，几乎是一个中型IP的全年体量。一旦LABUBU增速放缓，其他IP难以平滑公司整体增长曲线。\n　　新老IP的增速分化也让人警醒。2024年签约的星星人，2025年营收暴增1601.81%至20.56亿元，展现了泡泡玛特的IP孵化潜能。但经典IP MOLLY同期增速只有38.41%，显著低于公司整体水平。\n　　成熟IP消费群体趋于稳定，新鲜感驱动的增量动能正在衰减。单纯靠形象迭代，能不能维持长期高增长？这是泡泡玛特绕不开的问题。\n　　MOLLY的“先例”可资借鉴。2017年，MOLLY一度占泡泡玛特自有品牌收入89.4%，撑起公司近乎全部增长。随后热度回落，收入占比在2018年降至62.9%，2019年进一步降到32.9%。\n　　2021年高点后，泡泡玛特股价从70多港元一度跌到不足10港元。当前LABUBU的收入占比已近40%，成为新的超级顶流，是否可能会重蹈MOLLY覆辙？一旦其热度褪去，公司能否快速找到下一个接替者？\n　　3．海外市场：高基数上的增速换挡\n　　海外是2025年泡泡玛特业绩的重要引擎：海外收入162.68亿元，同比增长291.89%，营收占比从31.80%升至43.80%。美洲市场收入68.06亿元，增长748.40%；欧洲市场收入14.51亿元，增长506.30%。\n\n　　但高基数压力已在2026年第一季度兑现。彭博社援引Bloomberg Second Measure信用卡交易数据，泡泡玛特美国市场1月同比增长130%，2月降至41%，3月同比转负，下降45%。分析师指出，新品集中在1至2月上线，动能快速衰减，消费者对非LABUBU IP产品的接受度仍有限。\n　　高速增长背后，增速边际放缓的隐忧已经显现，尤其是运营复杂性持续提升，海外市场的快速拓店，对供应链响应速度、本地化营销能力、国际化人才储备提出了更高要求。粗放式扩张之后，运营效率的提升将成为泡泡玛特海外业务持续增长的关键。\n　　管理层已着手调整北美策略。据中银国际4月专家访谈纪要，北美团队2025年侧重铺货与开店，产品供给与本地消费偏好存在错配。修复方向包括：签约北美本地艺术家开发产品、提升墨西哥工厂产能覆盖约85%的北美供应、从线上渠道转向旗舰店大店体验驱动品牌认知。\n\n　　增长与稀缺的悖论：IP能火多久？\n　　泡泡玛特长期维持的超高毛利率，根源在于情感溢价，而情感溢价的核心支撑是稀缺性。这种稀缺性带来的收藏属性，更接近经济学中的“凡勃伦”商品，稀缺性越强、溢价越高，吸引力反而越大。\n　　回顾近5年业绩，泡泡玛特毛利率从2021年的61.4%攀升至2025年的72.1%，靠的就是头部IP爆款效应和稀缺机制——但商业扩张要求持续扩产放量。\n　　2025年LABUBU月产能提升至5000万件，大规模铺货直接导致二级市场溢价收窄。早期MOLLY隐藏款溢价可达10倍以上，如今多数系列已缩水至2至3倍，部分款式跌破发行价。\n　　这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论：要支撑百亿级营收的高增长，就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性，蚕食消费者的收藏信心，最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。\n　　王宁曾说：“我们的成功不是盲盒的成功，而是商业和艺术平衡的成功。艺术是追求独特的，但商业是追求普遍的，这是一个矛盾，而我们做的事情是尽量做到平衡。”当规模扩张的速度越过平衡的临界点，这个矛盾以前所未有的锐度暴露出来。\n　　潮玩行业有一条规律：IP生命周期普遍走孵化、成长、成熟、衰退的曲线，爆款平均热度周期约18到24个月。绝大多数IP停留在形象驱动、产品变现的浅层，缺乏长期叙事支撑与情感内核，难以穿越周期成为经典。这是行业IP生命周期的“阿喀琉斯之踵”，也是泡泡玛特无法回避的结构性短板。\n\n　　图片来源：中金公司研究部\n　　与迪士尼等全球IP巨头成熟的“内容先行、世界观打底”模式相比，泡泡玛特的IP运营路径是“形象出圈、盲盒爆卖、多品类延伸”。消费者对LABUBU、MOLLY们的喜爱，更多停留在视觉和情绪层面，缺少对角色的深度认同。\n　　泡泡玛特显然意识到了这一短板，近年已明显加大内容与场景投入：宣布与索尼影业合作，为LABUBU打造真人动画电影。推进POP LAND主题乐园1.5期开业，同时布局小家电、甜品、饰品等多元业态，试图用场景延长IP寿命。\n　　但电影能不能拍好，还是未知数。尤其是LABUBU的爆火，同样依赖设计风格与社交传播，而非基于成熟故事积累，将一个视觉符号转化为能打动大众的银幕故事，难度远超产品迭代。泡泡玛特擅长的是IP工业化孵化、产品落地与渠道销售，在影视编剧、世界观构建、长内容运营上几乎从零起步，内容工业化能力尚待培育。\n　　不过，王宁在近期的专访中给出了不同的解释。他将LABUBU比作“梅西式的体育明星”，不是迪士尼式的影视角色。他认为LABUBU不靠故事驱动，靠的是普世审美形象、高频产品迭代和长期陪伴感。“人们不需要梅西有故事，他站在那里就能让人开心。LABUBU的逻辑是一样的。”\n　　这个定位将泡泡玛特的IP模式与迪士尼做了明确切割：前者走“形象即内容”的体育明星路线，后者走“故事驱动形象”的影视工业路线。哪条路能支撑更长的IP生命周期，目前尚无定论。但至少，这个比喻为理解泡泡玛特的IP模式，提供了一个新刻度。\n　　泡泡玛特的股价重挫，是一次估值范式的切换。市场正在将它从不可预测的爆发式增长股，重新定价为可见度更高的稳健成长股。当增速从三位数回落至20%区间，现金流质量、盈利能力和护城河宽度，将成为更重要的估值定价因子。\n　　未来，市场对泡泡玛特的关注点将聚焦于三个指标：单一IP营收占比能否降到30%以下，证明平台的抗风险能力；海外单店模型能否交出精细化数据，验证全球化不是“烧钱换增长”；内容建设能否取得实质进展，为IP注入穿越周期的文化内核。\n　　“尊重时间，尊重经营。”王宁说过的这八个字，或许正是潮玩产业穿越周期的注脚。迪士尼花了数十年建立起米奇的文化地位，三丽鸥耕耘Hello Kitty也超过半个世纪。泡泡玛特从2010年成立到MOLLY破圈用了近8年，LABUBU全球爆火还不到2年。\n　　但现在，市场不只看过去了。经历估值泡沫与理性回归之后，真正具备IP运营能力的公司，终会赢得“时间的复利”。在此之前，市场的每一次热情，都可能被理性预期浇上一盆冷水。\n　　（除特别标注外，文中图表所用原始数据均来自上市公司财报等公开渠道，经整理计算后得出。）\n　　参考资料：\n　　1．李翔．《2026，再访王宁》\n　　2．李翔．《因为独特：泡泡玛特创始人王宁从杂货铺到IP世界的跋涉》，中信出版社，2024年10月出版\n　　3．泡泡玛特2025年年度业绩公告（港交所披露）\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PMRTY":1.98,"09992":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565467659580528,"gmtCreate":1779087954373,"gmtModify":1779087956564,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"跟着大哥喝汤啦！","listText":"跟着大哥喝汤啦！","text":"跟着大哥喝汤啦！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565467659580528","repostId":"2634544196","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2634544196","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778399097,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2634544196?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-10 15:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"段永平清仓了，风向变了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634544196","media":"格隆汇","summary":"Right Business、Right People、Right Price","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-2cefcba2-f6dc-4412-8612-3239a7087a64.jpg?guru_height=44&amp;guru_width=1080&amp;guru_size=6688\"/></p><p><span><span><span>最近，段永平在雪球发了个帖子，宣布把自己持有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">中国神华</a>，都换成了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span>这件事网络上讨论得挺火的。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/34176-9057bd92-e595-4e5b-8279-ac58f055862b.png?guru_height=316&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=118463\"/></p><p><span><span>之所以大家都很关注，除了吃瓜，也是因为大佬的高调换仓有时会给标的带来一波明显波动，反应快的可以趁机捞一波涨幅。</span></span></p><p><span><span>今年</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>月</span></span><span><span>21</span></span><span><span>日，段永平高调晒单加仓茅台</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万股，引发市场关注，</span></span><span><span>27</span></span><span><span>日，进一步加仓</span></span><span><span>7.72</span></span><span><span>万股，随后</span></span><span><span>29</span></span><span><span>日公开喊话“</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>年后，回看今天的茅台真不贵”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>结果后面几天，茅台股价从</span></span><span><span>1330</span></span><span><span>元快速涨到</span></span><span><span>1560</span></span><span><span>元，</span><span>短短几天幅度高达</span></span><span><span>17%</span></span><span><span>！</span></span></p><p><span><span>虽然当时茅台大涨原因并不完全因为他，但他也确实是起了重要作用。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这就是大佬的效应。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以近日他清仓神华换成泡泡玛特，大家的关注度也都极高。</span></span></p><p><span><span>帖子发出后，泡泡玛特当天午盘直线拉升，当天收盘涨</span></span><span><span>3.77%</span></span><span><span>，第二天续涨</span></span><span><span>3.64%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>被他清仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>，当天则跌了</span></span><span><span>4.2%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>仅仅半年多以前，他还在说自己根本看不懂泡泡玛特，如今却高调宣布看好。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这背后，有什么值得我们去揣摩学习的呢？</span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><p><span><span>一直以来，段永平的投资框架秉持</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>Right Business</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Right People</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Right Price</span></span><span><span>”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>而从商业模式上说，中国神华相当符合</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>Right Business</span></span><span><span>”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>神华是中国最大的煤炭生产商，也是煤炭行业的全产业链龙头，从煤矿开采到铁路运输到港口到电厂，几乎不需要依赖外部环节。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这种结构让神华在煤炭价格波动中比同行抗跌得多。</span></span></p><p><span><span>从财务上看，</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年神华实现营收</span></span><span><span>2949.16</span></span><span><span>亿元，归母净利润</span></span><span><span>528.49</span></span><span><span>亿元，虽然营收同比下降</span></span><span><span>13.21%</span></span><span><span>，利润下降</span></span><span><span>5.3%</span></span><span><span>，但在煤炭价格整体下行的环境里，这样的表现已经相当不错。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b386e-5e5531ee-8ac1-40df-9760-6eac0a0dbf4a.jpg?guru_height=740&amp;guru_width=864&amp;guru_size=80679\"/></p><p><span><span>更重要的是分红，</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，中国神华全年分红率为</span></span><span><span>78%</span></span><span><span>，公司还承诺</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>2027</span></span><span><span>年分红比例不低于</span></span><span><span>65%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>作为央企，中国神华管理团队稳定，治理规范，从管理层角度，这也是段永平不需要担心人出问题的公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>神华唯一的缺点是，它毕竟活在煤炭行业。</span></span></p><p><span><span>而煤炭是个周期性行业，虽然神华的煤电一体化结构能缓冲周期波动，但它终究没办法完全摆脱煤价的影响。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年神华自产煤平均售价同比下降</span></span><span><span>9.3%</span></span><span><span>，月度长协价格同比下降</span></span><span><span>19.3%</span></span><span><span>，周期下行依然会传导至利润端。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但这并非段永平清仓神华的全部原因。</span></span></p><p><span><span>早从</span></span><span><span>2010</span></span><span><span>年前后，段永平就开始持仓中国神华，中间经历过几次加减，但始终没有彻底清仓。</span></span></p><p><span><span>从公开信息看，中国神华一直是他</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股方面除茅台之外为数不多的持仓。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2024</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>月时段永平还在说，“</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股我没那么懂，目前基本上都是茅台，加一丁丁点神华。”</span></span></p><p><span><span>对于段永平而言，从</span></span><span><span>2010</span></span><span><span>年买入到</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年清仓，这趟投资持有时间超过</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>年，经历过数轮煤价牛熊，回报相当丰厚。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平也说神华是</span></span><span><span>“很好的公司”，赚了钱，还说以后会回来。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这次清仓神华换泡泡玛特，也不是他第一次用神华腾挪仓位，上一次用神华换的是茅台，这次换的是泡泡玛特。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4f246-385e9960-cb07-483e-a435-9bb991ead542.png?guru_height=543&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=94956\"/></p><p><span><span>因此，他不是因为看衰神华才清仓，而是因为看好泡泡玛特，才需要腾出仓位去配置。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那么，泡泡玛特到底好在哪里？</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平不是一开始就看好泡泡玛特的，他对泡泡玛特的态度有一个明显的转变过程。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，段永平对泡泡玛特的态度是——看不懂。</span></span></p><p><span><span>“我以前见过很多风靡一时的玩具，比如电子宠物、呼啦圈、魔方，一开始直觉觉得这个有点像那些东西。”</span></span></p><p><span><span>他觉得这个生意离他太远，不容易理解，不知道可持续性会如何，所以迟迟没有下手。</span></span></p><p><span><span>转折点是泡泡玛特</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年的财报。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，泡泡玛特营收</span></span><span><span>371</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>184%</span></span><span><span>，净利润</span></span><span><span>130</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>284%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这份财报让段永平产生了好奇心，花了好几天时间认真研究这家公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平研究出来了三点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>第一点，也是最重要的一点，那就是创始人王宁。</span></span></p><p><span><span>相比投资泡泡玛特，段永平更多的是看好王宁。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平表示，</span></span><span><span>“我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个‘企业家’。我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干</span></span><span><span>25</span></span><span><span>年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。”</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/82035-12250820-89eb-4bdd-b07c-3db0942232bc.png?guru_height=207&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=73828\"/></p><p><span><span>第二点，海外门店的崛起。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平在报告之外，亲自去伦敦的泡泡玛特门店去看，发现那家店生意很好，</span></span><span><span>90%</span></span><span><span>的顾客是本地人，不是华人，段永平认为，这说明泡泡玛特有可能成为一家全球性消费品牌。</span></span></p><p><span><span>第三点，</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>right price</span></span><span><span>”。</span></span></p><p><span><span>泡泡玛特发完亮眼财报后，股价反而大跌，市场因为短期情绪给出了一个更便宜的价格。</span></span></p><p><span><span>神华和泡泡玛特的商业模式都不难理解，段永平调仓的原因也很容易发现。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但这次清仓神华、买入泡泡玛特的调仓之所以引发这么大的关注，一个很重要的原因是，在很多人眼里，这象征着一种风格转变。</span></span></p><p><span><span>一个长期以稳健著称的投资者，突然买了一家潮玩公司，还卖掉了持有十几年的煤炭龙头。</span></span></p><p><span><span>有人觉得他终于开窍了，也有人觉得他开始漂了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那么，事实到底如何？</span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，新消费一度成为港股最为火热的赛道。</span></span></p><p><span><span>然而下半年开始，新消费龙头纷纷迎来回调。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那么，段永平杀入新消费赛道，是否证明，新消费即将再次崛起，传统行业难以为继呢？</span></span></p><p><span><span>答案是否定的。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/7fed3-4c3c6a4b-218c-4c71-ac0c-0761b70a821f.png?guru_height=655&amp;guru_width=543&amp;guru_size=167152\"/></p><p><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>月底，段永平也曾透露，用中国神华换了些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，贵州茅台营业总收入</span></span><span><span>1720.54</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比减少</span></span><span><span>1.21%</span></span><span><span>，归母净利润也同比减少</span></span><span><span>4.08%</span></span><span><span>至</span></span><span><span>823.20</span></span><span><span>亿元，这是茅台上市以来的首次营收和净利润双降。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/af235-e02dea2f-c46c-4a8a-bbcb-c004ef2851ba.jpg?guru_height=634&amp;guru_width=935&amp;guru_size=71296\"/></p><p><span><span>与茅台形成鲜明对照的是泡泡玛特。</span></span></p><p><span><span>泡泡玛特</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年全年营收</span></span><span><span>371.2</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>184.7%</span></span><span><span>，经调整净利润</span></span><span><span>130.8</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>284.5%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>一个是传统消费的代表，营收已经开始下坡，一个是新消费的代表，在不确定中持续高速增长，段永平同时持有它们，到底是怎么想的？</span></span></p><p><span><span>过去很多年间，段永平反复讲茅台，讲它的商业模式、品牌壁垒和管理层，突出的，就是一个确定性。</span></span></p><p><span><span>他认为，像茅台这样的生意，你在任何时候买入，只要持有时间足够长，几乎不可能亏钱。</span></span></p><p><span><span>茅台的收入高度集中在国内市场，高度依赖飞天茅台这一个超级单品，依赖的是几乎不可能被复制的品牌壁垒。</span></span></p><p><span><span>在中国的高端社交和商务场景中，茅台的地位极难被替代。</span></span></p><p><span><span>即便未来五年茅台营收零增长，每年仍然能产生大几百亿的净利润，现金流极其充沛，分红率也持续提升。</span></span></p><p><span><span>持有茅台赚的是稳定的现金流和分红，未来的增长预期是温和的，甚至可能是零增长，但它的下限非常高。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平仍然持有并加仓茅台，买的是它的确定性。</span></span></p><p><span><span>泡泡玛特则与之截然不同。</span></span></p><p><span><span>它的增长驱动力来自全球化扩张、</span></span><span><span>IP</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>的丰富和品类创新。</span></span></p><p><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，泡泡玛特海外收入</span></span><span><span>162.7</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>291.9%</span></span><span><span>，占总营收比重从</span></span><span><span>2024</span></span><span><span>年的</span></span><span><span>31.8%</span></span><span><span>跃升至</span></span><span><span>43.8%</span></span><span><span>，放在任何行业都是顶级成长股的级别。</span></span></p><p><span><span>不仅如此，公司业务中，毛绒产品收入</span></span><span><span>187.1</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长</span></span><span><span>560%</span></span><span><span>，首次超越手办成为第一大品类。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这就说明，哪怕公司成长已经如此惊人，但公司的业务结构还在动态变化中。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这既代表了极大的收益，同样也隐藏着巨大的风险。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这两家公司在投资上代表的并不是行业的对立，而是投资中两种截然不同的资产类型。</span></span></p><p><span><span>也是因此，并非段永平不看好传统消费，他只是将自己的投资调转了一个方向，而这个方向又恰好撞上了目前市场上的两种情绪。</span></span></p><p><span><span>就在近期，白酒行业迎来了一连串的利空。</span></span></p><p><span><span>先是茅台业绩负增长，后是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>业绩直接砍半。</span></span></p><p><span><span>然而，在两大龙头股接连放出负面消息之后，白酒板块大跌后又迅速回升，某种程度上看，白酒或许已经跌不动了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是，跌不动了，也不意味着会立马掉头向上，如今的传统消费，已经和新消费资产走上了完全不同的估值逻辑。</span></span></p><p><span><span>对于新消费而言，市场愿意为高增长支付溢价，但也随时会因为增长预期的动摇而踩下刹车，这样的高增长高波动，是茅台和神华所不具备的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但目前，茅台</span></span><span><span>20</span></span><span><span>倍左右的市盈率处于历史相对低位，神华约</span></span><span><span>7%</span></span><span><span>的股息率仍然是高股息策略的重要标的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当市场上同时存在高确定性的低增长资产和高不确定性的高增长资产时，不同的选择，仅仅只是来源于自身的风险偏好。</span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03 </font></span></strong><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">结语</font></strong></h3><div><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></strong></div><p><span><span>对于普通投资者来说，与其关注</span></span><span><span>“该不该跟着买泡泡玛特”，不如关注段永平做这笔交易的方法本身。</span></span></p><p><span><span>段永平从看不懂到看懂泡泡玛特，用了至少几个月的时间，中间做了大量研究、实地调研、阅读创始人的书和访谈。</span></span></p><p><span><span>他不是因为别人赚钱了才跟进去，而是自己投入了认知成本。</span></span></p><p><span><span>而普通投资者做不到深度研究，但至少可以做到一点，那就是，不要买入你完全不了解的公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>更深一层看，哪怕是段永平这样的投资家，也需要数月探索，才把一个原本看不懂的生意变成看得懂。</span></span></p><p><span><span>普通投资者投资时，更需要认清自己不懂的边界，再一步一步将其拓展。</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平清仓了，风向变了？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平清仓了，风向变了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-10 15:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4697623><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近，段永平在雪球发了个帖子，宣布把自己持有的中国神华，都换成了泡泡玛特。这件事网络上讨论得挺火的。之所以大家都很关注，除了吃瓜，也是因为大佬的高调换仓有时会给标的带来一波明显波动，反应快的可以趁机捞一波涨幅。今年1月21日，段永平高调晒单加仓茅台2万股，引发市场关注，27日，进一步加仓7.72万股，随后29日公开喊话“10年后，回看今天的茅台真不贵”。结果后面几天，茅台股价从1330元快速涨到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4697623\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5d4f1-1e70802d-afff-48d2-98a6-97a60fce040b.jpg?guru_height=667&guru_width=1000&guru_size=62317","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","601088":"中国神华","LU1497734951.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility Equity Fund ASDM SGD-H","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1934453819.USD":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","BK0215":"饮品","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","HK0000181112.HKD":"DA CHENG CHINA BALANCED \"A\" (HKD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4697623","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2634544196","content_text":"最近，段永平在雪球发了个帖子，宣布把自己持有的中国神华，都换成了泡泡玛特。这件事网络上讨论得挺火的。之所以大家都很关注，除了吃瓜，也是因为大佬的高调换仓有时会给标的带来一波明显波动，反应快的可以趁机捞一波涨幅。今年1月21日，段永平高调晒单加仓茅台2万股，引发市场关注，27日，进一步加仓7.72万股，随后29日公开喊话“10年后，回看今天的茅台真不贵”。结果后面几天，茅台股价从1330元快速涨到1560元，短短几天幅度高达17%！虽然当时茅台大涨原因并不完全因为他，但他也确实是起了重要作用。这就是大佬的效应。所以近日他清仓神华换成泡泡玛特，大家的关注度也都极高。帖子发出后，泡泡玛特当天午盘直线拉升，当天收盘涨3.77%，第二天续涨3.64%。被他清仓的中国神华，当天则跌了4.2%。仅仅半年多以前，他还在说自己根本看不懂泡泡玛特，如今却高调宣布看好。这背后，有什么值得我们去揣摩学习的呢？01一直以来，段永平的投资框架秉持“Right Business、Right People、Right Price”。而从商业模式上说，中国神华相当符合“Right Business”。神华是中国最大的煤炭生产商，也是煤炭行业的全产业链龙头，从煤矿开采到铁路运输到港口到电厂，几乎不需要依赖外部环节。这种结构让神华在煤炭价格波动中比同行抗跌得多。从财务上看，2025年神华实现营收2949.16亿元，归母净利润528.49亿元，虽然营收同比下降13.21%，利润下降5.3%，但在煤炭价格整体下行的环境里，这样的表现已经相当不错。更重要的是分红，2025年，中国神华全年分红率为78%，公司还承诺2025到2027年分红比例不低于65%。作为央企，中国神华管理团队稳定，治理规范，从管理层角度，这也是段永平不需要担心人出问题的公司。神华唯一的缺点是，它毕竟活在煤炭行业。而煤炭是个周期性行业，虽然神华的煤电一体化结构能缓冲周期波动，但它终究没办法完全摆脱煤价的影响。2025年神华自产煤平均售价同比下降9.3%，月度长协价格同比下降19.3%，周期下行依然会传导至利润端。但这并非段永平清仓神华的全部原因。早从2010年前后，段永平就开始持仓中国神华，中间经历过几次加减，但始终没有彻底清仓。从公开信息看，中国神华一直是他A股方面除茅台之外为数不多的持仓。2024年10月时段永平还在说，“A股我没那么懂，目前基本上都是茅台，加一丁丁点神华。”对于段永平而言，从2010年买入到2026年清仓，这趟投资持有时间超过15年，经历过数轮煤价牛熊，回报相当丰厚。段永平也说神华是“很好的公司”，赚了钱，还说以后会回来。这次清仓神华换泡泡玛特，也不是他第一次用神华腾挪仓位，上一次用神华换的是茅台，这次换的是泡泡玛特。因此，他不是因为看衰神华才清仓，而是因为看好泡泡玛特，才需要腾出仓位去配置。那么，泡泡玛特到底好在哪里？段永平不是一开始就看好泡泡玛特的，他对泡泡玛特的态度有一个明显的转变过程。2025年，段永平对泡泡玛特的态度是——看不懂。“我以前见过很多风靡一时的玩具，比如电子宠物、呼啦圈、魔方，一开始直觉觉得这个有点像那些东西。”他觉得这个生意离他太远，不容易理解，不知道可持续性会如何，所以迟迟没有下手。转折点是泡泡玛特2025年的财报。2025年，泡泡玛特营收371亿元，同比增长184%，净利润130亿元，同比增长284%。这份财报让段永平产生了好奇心，花了好几天时间认真研究这家公司。段永平研究出来了三点。第一点，也是最重要的一点，那就是创始人王宁。相比投资泡泡玛特，段永平更多的是看好王宁。段永平表示，“我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个‘企业家’。我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干25年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。”第二点，海外门店的崛起。段永平在报告之外，亲自去伦敦的泡泡玛特门店去看，发现那家店生意很好，90%的顾客是本地人，不是华人，段永平认为，这说明泡泡玛特有可能成为一家全球性消费品牌。第三点，“right price”。泡泡玛特发完亮眼财报后，股价反而大跌，市场因为短期情绪给出了一个更便宜的价格。神华和泡泡玛特的商业模式都不难理解，段永平调仓的原因也很容易发现。但这次清仓神华、买入泡泡玛特的调仓之所以引发这么大的关注，一个很重要的原因是，在很多人眼里，这象征着一种风格转变。一个长期以稳健著称的投资者，突然买了一家潮玩公司，还卖掉了持有十几年的煤炭龙头。有人觉得他终于开窍了，也有人觉得他开始漂了。那么，事实到底如何？022025年，新消费一度成为港股最为火热的赛道。然而下半年开始，新消费龙头纷纷迎来回调。那么，段永平杀入新消费赛道，是否证明，新消费即将再次崛起，传统行业难以为继呢？答案是否定的。1月底，段永平也曾透露，用中国神华换了些贵州茅台。2025年，贵州茅台营业总收入1720.54亿元，同比减少1.21%，归母净利润也同比减少4.08%至823.20亿元，这是茅台上市以来的首次营收和净利润双降。与茅台形成鲜明对照的是泡泡玛特。泡泡玛特2025年全年营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%，经调整净利润130.8亿元，同比增长284.5%。一个是传统消费的代表，营收已经开始下坡，一个是新消费的代表，在不确定中持续高速增长，段永平同时持有它们，到底是怎么想的？过去很多年间，段永平反复讲茅台，讲它的商业模式、品牌壁垒和管理层，突出的，就是一个确定性。他认为，像茅台这样的生意，你在任何时候买入，只要持有时间足够长，几乎不可能亏钱。茅台的收入高度集中在国内市场，高度依赖飞天茅台这一个超级单品，依赖的是几乎不可能被复制的品牌壁垒。在中国的高端社交和商务场景中，茅台的地位极难被替代。即便未来五年茅台营收零增长，每年仍然能产生大几百亿的净利润，现金流极其充沛，分红率也持续提升。持有茅台赚的是稳定的现金流和分红，未来的增长预期是温和的，甚至可能是零增长，但它的下限非常高。段永平仍然持有并加仓茅台，买的是它的确定性。泡泡玛特则与之截然不同。它的增长驱动力来自全球化扩张、IP矩阵的丰富和品类创新。2025年，泡泡玛特海外收入162.7亿元，同比增长291.9%，占总营收比重从2024年的31.8%跃升至43.8%，放在任何行业都是顶级成长股的级别。不仅如此，公司业务中，毛绒产品收入187.1亿元，同比增长560%，首次超越手办成为第一大品类。这就说明，哪怕公司成长已经如此惊人，但公司的业务结构还在动态变化中。这既代表了极大的收益，同样也隐藏着巨大的风险。这两家公司在投资上代表的并不是行业的对立，而是投资中两种截然不同的资产类型。也是因此，并非段永平不看好传统消费，他只是将自己的投资调转了一个方向，而这个方向又恰好撞上了目前市场上的两种情绪。就在近期，白酒行业迎来了一连串的利空。先是茅台业绩负增长，后是五粮液业绩直接砍半。然而，在两大龙头股接连放出负面消息之后，白酒板块大跌后又迅速回升，某种程度上看，白酒或许已经跌不动了。但是，跌不动了，也不意味着会立马掉头向上，如今的传统消费，已经和新消费资产走上了完全不同的估值逻辑。对于新消费而言，市场愿意为高增长支付溢价，但也随时会因为增长预期的动摇而踩下刹车，这样的高增长高波动，是茅台和神华所不具备的。但目前，茅台20倍左右的市盈率处于历史相对低位，神华约7%的股息率仍然是高股息策略的重要标的。当市场上同时存在高确定性的低增长资产和高不确定性的高增长资产时，不同的选择，仅仅只是来源于自身的风险偏好。03 结语对于普通投资者来说，与其关注“该不该跟着买泡泡玛特”，不如关注段永平做这笔交易的方法本身。段永平从看不懂到看懂泡泡玛特，用了至少几个月的时间，中间做了大量研究、实地调研、阅读创始人的书和访谈。他不是因为别人赚钱了才跟进去，而是自己投入了认知成本。而普通投资者做不到深度研究，但至少可以做到一点，那就是，不要买入你完全不了解的公司。更深一层看，哪怕是段永平这样的投资家，也需要数月探索，才把一个原本看不懂的生意变成看得懂。普通投资者投资时，更需要认清自己不懂的边界，再一步一步将其拓展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":1.88,"601088":1.91,"CSUAY":1.91,"09992":1.97,"01088":1.91,"PMRTY":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561933605381408,"gmtCreate":1778222528119,"gmtModify":1778222530601,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他应该把拼多多买起来","listText":"他应该把拼多多买起来","text":"他应该把拼多多买起来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561933605381408","repostId":"1107123169","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561926358693864,"gmtCreate":1778220831302,"gmtModify":1778220833736,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563329216096354","authorIdStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","listText":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","text":"哪家公司也不会因为他买了就涨，拼多多他也买了，怎么样呢？也是好公司，黄铮也是有实力，他们挣了钱了不回馈股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561926358693864","repostId":"1107123169","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107123169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1778204624,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107123169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-08 09:43","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107123169","media":"异动解读","summary":"公司未来增长潜力巨大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a> 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，<strong>“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。</strong>段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49dbb90ecc3a61c90c1dfd70d1eb29b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泡泡玛特盘中大涨超8%，“中国巴菲特”段永平称全仓换入\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-08 09:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a> 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，<strong>“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。</strong>段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49dbb90ecc3a61c90c1dfd70d1eb29b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dc37d452f250ce3fb402a1655ca971","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107123169","content_text":"周五， 泡泡玛特 盘中逆市大涨超8%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，“中国巴菲特”段永平于5月7日公开表示，已将所持中国神华全部换仓至泡泡玛特。段永平自4月起便通过卖出看跌期权的方式逐步布局泡泡玛特，并多次在社交平台表达对公司创始人王宁管理能力及公司长期发展前景的高度认可。段永平在解释其投资逻辑时提到，他看重泡泡玛特成熟的IP孵化平台、强大的海外扩张能力以及高毛利率的商业模式。他认为创始人王宁年轻有为，公司未来增长潜力巨大。这一系列积极信号直接推动了股价在交易时段内的强势表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}