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weifeng_86

weifeng_86

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23粉丝

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0勋章

2021-12-29

Lol i will buy

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-27

Uptrend

Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-12-25

thanks

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2021-12-24

Congrats to those who added

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-22

Too soon

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2021-12-21

Buy

Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>

2021-12-21

Nice

Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>

2021-12-20

Hold

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2021-12-20

nice

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2021-12-17

Can add

Missed Out on Tesla? Here's What to Buy Now<blockquote>错过了特斯拉？这是现在要买的东西</blockquote>

2021-12-16

Here marks the crash

Fed will aggressively dial back its monthly bond buying, sees three rate hikes next year<blockquote>美联储将大幅减少每月债券购买，预计明年将加息三次</blockquote>

2021-12-14

The list is endless

PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>

2021-12-10

ok

Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-12-08

Ok

Ford Says Nearing 200,000 F-150 Lightning Reservations, Order Bank Opening Soon<blockquote>福特表示接近 20 万辆 F-150 Lightning 预订，订单银行即将开业</blockquote>

2021-12-05

Ok

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2021-12-05

Sell

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2021-12-04

Ok

US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：数字银行和云基础设施引领 IPO 周 4</blockquote>

2021-12-03

No dip

Nvidia’s Purchase of Arm Is (Likely) Dead. What Comes Next?<blockquote>Nvidia 对 Arm 的收购（很可能）已经夭折。接下来是什么？</blockquote>

2021-12-02

Grab money

Singapore ride-hailing firm Grab spikes 18% on its first day of trading<blockquote>新加坡打车公司 Grab 上市首日股价飙升 18%</blockquote>

2021-11-30

Dip was on fri

Omicron stock market rout doesn't mean stocks are a 'screaming' buy: strategist<blockquote>策略师：奥密克戎股市崩盘并不意味着股票值得“尖叫”买入</blockquote>

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i will buy","listText":"Lol i will buy","text":"Lol i will buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696770454","repostId":"2195545489","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696391043,"gmtCreate":1640614993700,"gmtModify":1640614993966,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Uptrend","listText":"Uptrend","text":"Uptrend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696391043","repostId":"1185167492","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185167492","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640609888,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185167492?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 20:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185167492","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Monday, boosted by megacap companies, while hundreds of Om","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Monday, boosted by megacap companies, while hundreds of Omicron-driven flight cancellations kept investors on edge at the start of this year's final trading week.</p><p><blockquote>受大型公司的提振，美国股指期货周一小幅走高，而奥密克戎驱动的数百个航班取消让投资者在今年最后一个交易周开始时感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Travel-related stocks, typically sensitive to news around the coronavirus, slid after U.S. airlines called off many flights for a third day on Sunday as surging COVID-19 cases forced Christmas weekend travelers to change plans.</p><p><blockquote>由于 COVID-19 病例激增迫使圣诞节周末旅行者改变计划，美国航空公司周日第三天取消了许多航班，旅游相关股票通常对冠状病毒新闻敏感，但随后下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, as upbeat news related to the Omicron coronavirus variant calmed investor nerves over the highly infection strain's economic impact after it upended markets earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收盘创下历史新高，与 Omicron 冠状病毒变种相关的乐观消息平息了投资者对高传染性毒株在本月早些时候颠覆市场后对经济影响的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street's three main indexes are eyeing a third straight yearly gain, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) on track to close out the year 25.8% higher. The Dow is set to rise 17.5%, while the Nasdaq is looking at a 21.4% climb.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大股指有望连续第三年上涨，基准标普500 (.SPX) 有望年底上涨 25.8%。道琼斯指数预计将上涨17.5%，而纳斯达克指数预计将上涨21.4%。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 72 points, or 0.20% and S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 15.50 points, or 0.33%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:00，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 72 点，涨幅 0.20%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 15.50 点，涨幅 0.33%。</blockquote></p><p> Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 70.00 points, or 0.43% as megacap companies Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Meta Platform (FB.O) firmed between 0.5% and 1%.Airline stocks – The major carriers saw their shares fall in the premarket after a surge in weekend cancellations due to staffing issues. United Airlines (UAL) slid 1.8%, American Airlines (AAL) fell 1.4%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) was down 1% and Southwest (LUV) declined 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克 100 E-mini 指数上涨 70.00 点，涨幅 0.43%，大型公司特斯拉公司 (TSLA.O) 和微软公司 (MSFT.O) 以及 Meta Platform (FB.O) 的涨幅在 0.5% 至 1% 之间。航空股——主要航空公司的股价在盘前下跌，由于人员问题，周末取消航班激增。联合航空 (UAL) 下跌 1.8%，美国航空 (AAL) 下跌 1.4%，达美航空 (DAL) 下跌 1%，西南航空 (LUV) 下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09541de8c4bcd965c62dbe3f6b7f6bc5\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"205\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Cruise line stocks – Stocks of major cruise lines declined in premarket trading following three Covid-19 outbreaks in the past week on ships operated by Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL). Carnival slid 2.2% in the premarket, while Royal Caribbean lost 1.9% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) slid 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>邮轮公司股票——过去一周嘉年华 (CCL) 和皇家加勒比 (RCL) 运营的船舶上爆发三起 Covid-19 疫情后，主要邮轮公司的股票在盘前交易中下跌。嘉年华盘前下跌 2.2%，皇家加勒比下跌 1.9%，挪威邮轮控股公司 (NCLH) 下跌 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Grab（GRAB）–&nbsp;Grab stock climbed more than 7% in premarket trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Wall Street saw massive upside for Asian tech giant Grab, after disappointing debut.</p><p><blockquote>Grab（GRAB）——Grab 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 7%，华尔街看到了亚洲科技巨头 Grab 在令人失望的首次亮相后的巨大上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> GoDaddy (GDDY) – GoDaddy jumped 3.9% in premarket action after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value had taken a 6.5% stake in the internet domain name registration company.</p><p><blockquote>GoDaddy (GDDY) – 在《华尔街日报》报道激进投资者 Starboard Value 持有互联网域名注册公司 6.5% 的股份后，GoDaddy 在盘前交易中上涨 3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) – Apple was cited by the top competition regulator in the Netherlands, which said the company broke competition laws, and ordered changes to Apple’s App Store payment policies. Apple said it would appeal the ruling.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）--荷兰最高竞争监管机构传唤苹果，称该公司违反了竞争法，并下令修改苹果的 App Store 支付政策。苹果表示将对裁决提出上诉。</blockquote></p><p> Cigna (CI) – The insurer will reaffirm its 2021 and 2022 earnings guidance at its upcoming investor meetings, according to an SEC filing. Cigna expected 2021 adjusted earnings of at least $20.35 per share and sees projected growth of at least 10% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Cigna (CI) – 根据 SEC 提交的文件，该保险公司将在即将举行的投资者会议上重申其 2021 年和 2022 年盈利指引。Cigna 预计 2021 年调整后每股收益至少为 20.35 美元，预计 2022 年增长至少为 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna (MRNA) – The drugmaker is fighting a shareholder proposal that the company open up its vaccine technology to poorer countries, according to a report in the Financial Times. The proposal calls on Moderna to explain why its prices are so high in light of the amount of government financial support it has received. Moderna fell 2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna (MRNA)——据英国《金融时报》报道，这家制药商正在反对股东提出的向较贫穷国家开放疫苗技术的提议。该提案要求 Moderna 解释为什么鉴于其获得的政府财政支持数量，其价格如此之高。Moderna 盘前下跌 2%。</blockquote></p><p> Avis Budget (CAR) – The car rental firm’s shares jumped 2.6% in premarket trading, following a 3.2% gain Thursday. Average daily rental rates are at $81 per day, according to travel firm Kayak. That’s up 31% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>Avis Budget (CAR) - 继周四上涨 3.2% 之后，这家汽车租赁公司的股价在盘前交易中大涨 2.6%。根据旅游公司Kayak的数据，平均每天的租金为81美元。这比一年前增长了 31%。</blockquote></p><p> Didi Global (DIDI) – Didi fell 1.3% in the premarket after the Financial Times reported that the China-based ride-hailing company is blocking employees from selling the shares for an indefinite period. That follows the company’s move to delist in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴全球 (DIDI) – 英国《金融时报》报道称，这家总部位于中国的网约车公司无限期阻止员工出售股票后，滴滴在盘前下跌 1.3%。在此之前，该公司已在美国退市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-27 20:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Monday, boosted by megacap companies, while hundreds of Omicron-driven flight cancellations kept investors on edge at the start of this year's final trading week.</p><p><blockquote>受大型公司的提振，美国股指期货周一小幅走高，而奥密克戎驱动的数百个航班取消让投资者在今年最后一个交易周开始时感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Travel-related stocks, typically sensitive to news around the coronavirus, slid after U.S. airlines called off many flights for a third day on Sunday as surging COVID-19 cases forced Christmas weekend travelers to change plans.</p><p><blockquote>由于 COVID-19 病例激增迫使圣诞节周末旅行者改变计划，美国航空公司周日第三天取消了许多航班，旅游相关股票通常对冠状病毒新闻敏感，但随后下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, as upbeat news related to the Omicron coronavirus variant calmed investor nerves over the highly infection strain's economic impact after it upended markets earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收盘创下历史新高，与 Omicron 冠状病毒变种相关的乐观消息平息了投资者对高传染性毒株在本月早些时候颠覆市场后对经济影响的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street's three main indexes are eyeing a third straight yearly gain, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) on track to close out the year 25.8% higher. The Dow is set to rise 17.5%, while the Nasdaq is looking at a 21.4% climb.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大股指有望连续第三年上涨，基准标普500 (.SPX) 有望年底上涨 25.8%。道琼斯指数预计将上涨17.5%，而纳斯达克指数预计将上涨21.4%。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 72 points, or 0.20% and S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 15.50 points, or 0.33%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:00，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 72 点，涨幅 0.20%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 15.50 点，涨幅 0.33%。</blockquote></p><p> Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 70.00 points, or 0.43% as megacap companies Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Meta Platform (FB.O) firmed between 0.5% and 1%.Airline stocks – The major carriers saw their shares fall in the premarket after a surge in weekend cancellations due to staffing issues. United Airlines (UAL) slid 1.8%, American Airlines (AAL) fell 1.4%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) was down 1% and Southwest (LUV) declined 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克 100 E-mini 指数上涨 70.00 点，涨幅 0.43%，大型公司特斯拉公司 (TSLA.O) 和微软公司 (MSFT.O) 以及 Meta Platform (FB.O) 的涨幅在 0.5% 至 1% 之间。航空股——主要航空公司的股价在盘前下跌，由于人员问题，周末取消航班激增。联合航空 (UAL) 下跌 1.8%，美国航空 (AAL) 下跌 1.4%，达美航空 (DAL) 下跌 1%，西南航空 (LUV) 下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09541de8c4bcd965c62dbe3f6b7f6bc5\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"205\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Cruise line stocks – Stocks of major cruise lines declined in premarket trading following three Covid-19 outbreaks in the past week on ships operated by Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL). Carnival slid 2.2% in the premarket, while Royal Caribbean lost 1.9% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) slid 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>邮轮公司股票——过去一周嘉年华 (CCL) 和皇家加勒比 (RCL) 运营的船舶上爆发三起 Covid-19 疫情后，主要邮轮公司的股票在盘前交易中下跌。嘉年华盘前下跌 2.2%，皇家加勒比下跌 1.9%，挪威邮轮控股公司 (NCLH) 下跌 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Grab（GRAB）–&nbsp;Grab stock climbed more than 7% in premarket trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Wall Street saw massive upside for Asian tech giant Grab, after disappointing debut.</p><p><blockquote>Grab（GRAB）——Grab 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 7%，华尔街看到了亚洲科技巨头 Grab 在令人失望的首次亮相后的巨大上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> GoDaddy (GDDY) – GoDaddy jumped 3.9% in premarket action after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value had taken a 6.5% stake in the internet domain name registration company.</p><p><blockquote>GoDaddy (GDDY) – 在《华尔街日报》报道激进投资者 Starboard Value 持有互联网域名注册公司 6.5% 的股份后，GoDaddy 在盘前交易中上涨 3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) – Apple was cited by the top competition regulator in the Netherlands, which said the company broke competition laws, and ordered changes to Apple’s App Store payment policies. Apple said it would appeal the ruling.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）--荷兰最高竞争监管机构传唤苹果，称该公司违反了竞争法，并下令修改苹果的 App Store 支付政策。苹果表示将对裁决提出上诉。</blockquote></p><p> Cigna (CI) – The insurer will reaffirm its 2021 and 2022 earnings guidance at its upcoming investor meetings, according to an SEC filing. Cigna expected 2021 adjusted earnings of at least $20.35 per share and sees projected growth of at least 10% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Cigna (CI) – 根据 SEC 提交的文件，该保险公司将在即将举行的投资者会议上重申其 2021 年和 2022 年盈利指引。Cigna 预计 2021 年调整后每股收益至少为 20.35 美元，预计 2022 年增长至少为 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna (MRNA) – The drugmaker is fighting a shareholder proposal that the company open up its vaccine technology to poorer countries, according to a report in the Financial Times. The proposal calls on Moderna to explain why its prices are so high in light of the amount of government financial support it has received. Moderna fell 2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna (MRNA)——据英国《金融时报》报道，这家制药商正在反对股东提出的向较贫穷国家开放疫苗技术的提议。该提案要求 Moderna 解释为什么鉴于其获得的政府财政支持数量，其价格如此之高。Moderna 盘前下跌 2%。</blockquote></p><p> Avis Budget (CAR) – The car rental firm’s shares jumped 2.6% in premarket trading, following a 3.2% gain Thursday. Average daily rental rates are at $81 per day, according to travel firm Kayak. That’s up 31% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>Avis Budget (CAR) - 继周四上涨 3.2% 之后，这家汽车租赁公司的股价在盘前交易中大涨 2.6%。根据旅游公司Kayak的数据，平均每天的租金为81美元。这比一年前增长了 31%。</blockquote></p><p> Didi Global (DIDI) – Didi fell 1.3% in the premarket after the Financial Times reported that the China-based ride-hailing company is blocking employees from selling the shares for an indefinite period. That follows the company’s move to delist in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴全球 (DIDI) – 英国《金融时报》报道称，这家总部位于中国的网约车公司无限期阻止员工出售股票后，滴滴在盘前下跌 1.3%。在此之前，该公司已在美国退市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185167492","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Monday, boosted by megacap companies, while hundreds of Omicron-driven flight cancellations kept investors on edge at the start of this year's final trading week.\nTravel-related stocks, typically sensitive to news around the coronavirus, slid after U.S. airlines called off many flights for a third day on Sunday as surging COVID-19 cases forced Christmas weekend travelers to change plans.\nThe S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, as upbeat news related to the Omicron coronavirus variant calmed investor nerves over the highly infection strain's economic impact after it upended markets earlier this month.\nWall Street's three main indexes are eyeing a third straight yearly gain, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) on track to close out the year 25.8% higher. The Dow is set to rise 17.5%, while the Nasdaq is looking at a 21.4% climb.\nAt 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 72 points, or 0.20% and S&P 500 e-minis were up 15.50 points, or 0.33%.\nNasdaq 100 e-minis were up 70.00 points, or 0.43% as megacap companies Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Meta Platform (FB.O) firmed between 0.5% and 1%.Airline stocks – The major carriers saw their shares fall in the premarket after a surge in weekend cancellations due to staffing issues. United Airlines (UAL) slid 1.8%, American Airlines (AAL) fell 1.4%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) was down 1% and Southwest (LUV) declined 1.5%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:00\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket\nCruise line stocks – Stocks of major cruise lines declined in premarket trading following three Covid-19 outbreaks in the past week on ships operated by Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL). Carnival slid 2.2% in the premarket, while Royal Caribbean lost 1.9% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) slid 1.6%.\nGrab（GRAB）– Grab stock climbed more than 7% in premarket trading as Wall Street saw massive upside for Asian tech giant Grab, after disappointing debut.\nGoDaddy (GDDY) – GoDaddy jumped 3.9% in premarket action after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value had taken a 6.5% stake in the internet domain name registration company.\n\nApple (AAPL) – Apple was cited by the top competition regulator in the Netherlands, which said the company broke competition laws, and ordered changes to Apple’s App Store payment policies. Apple said it would appeal the ruling.\n\nCigna (CI) – The insurer will reaffirm its 2021 and 2022 earnings guidance at its upcoming investor meetings, according to an SEC filing. Cigna expected 2021 adjusted earnings of at least $20.35 per share and sees projected growth of at least 10% for 2022.\n\nModerna (MRNA) – The drugmaker is fighting a shareholder proposal that the company open up its vaccine technology to poorer countries, according to a report in the Financial Times. The proposal calls on Moderna to explain why its prices are so high in light of the amount of government financial support it has received. Moderna fell 2% in the premarket.\n\nAvis Budget (CAR) – The car rental firm’s shares jumped 2.6% in premarket trading, following a 3.2% gain Thursday. Average daily rental rates are at $81 per day, according to travel firm Kayak. That’s up 31% from a year ago.\n\nDidi Global (DIDI) – Didi fell 1.3% in the premarket after the Financial Times reported that the China-based ride-hailing company is blocking employees from selling the shares for an indefinite period. That follows the company’s move to delist in the United States.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698227726,"gmtCreate":1640415314432,"gmtModify":1640415314672,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698227726","repostId":"2193917872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698894719,"gmtCreate":1640332761044,"gmtModify":1640332761284,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Congrats to those who added","listText":"Congrats to those who added","text":"Congrats to those who added","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698894719","repostId":"2193078140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691878065,"gmtCreate":1640176245368,"gmtModify":1640176246356,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Too soon","listText":"Too soon","text":"Too soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691878065","repostId":"1156776760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693447461,"gmtCreate":1640070929191,"gmtModify":1640070929434,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Buy","listText":"&nbsp;Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693447461","repostId":"1117226796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117226796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640057164,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117226796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117226796","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693447269,"gmtCreate":1640070923276,"gmtModify":1640070923605,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693447269","repostId":"1117226796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117226796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640057164,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117226796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117226796","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693326033,"gmtCreate":1639974192953,"gmtModify":1639974193186,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hold","listText":"Hold","text":"Hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693326033","repostId":"2192989909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693027233,"gmtCreate":1639945119282,"gmtModify":1639945119538,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693027233","repostId":"2192099879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690743349,"gmtCreate":1639713164977,"gmtModify":1639713176628,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can add","listText":"Can add","text":"Can add","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690743349","repostId":"1115262079","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115262079","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639712748,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115262079?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Missed Out on Tesla? Here's What to Buy Now<blockquote>错过了特斯拉？这是现在要买的东西</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115262079","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The growing use of electric vehicles will benefit several players.","content":"<p>In the last two years,<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;stock has surged more than 1,000%. Investors who missed investing in Tesla two years back could be disheartened. Yet it is worth noting that it is difficult to foresee stocks that can generate Tesla-like returns. The best approach is to invest in companies that you believe can perform well in the long haul. Stocks of such quality companies should generate market-beating returns if you hold them long enough.</p><p><blockquote>近两年来，<b>特斯拉</b>股价飙升超过 1,000%。两年前错过投资特斯拉的投资者可能会感到沮丧。然而值得注意的是，很难预见能够产生类似特斯拉回报的股票。最好的方法是投资那些你认为能长期表现良好的公司。如果你持有这些优质公司的股票足够长的时间，它们应该会产生跑赢市场的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at three&nbsp;electric vehicle (EV) stocks&nbsp;that have the potential to generate outsize returns in five years, or more.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看三只有可能在五年或更长时间内产生巨额回报的电动汽车 (EV) 股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid集团</b></blockquote></p><p> There is a plethora of electric vehicle stocks to choose from right now. Of these,<b>Lucid Group</b>(NASDAQ:LCID)&nbsp;looks promising. There are several reasons to like Lucid Group. Users like the cars' features and designs, and within a short time, Lucid has succeeded in establishing itself as a luxury electric car brand.</p><p><blockquote>现在有太多的电动汽车股票可供选择。其中，<b>Lucid集团</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）看起来很有希望。喜欢Lucid Group有几个原因。用户喜欢这些汽车的功能和设计，在很短的时间内，Lucid就成功地将自己打造成了一个豪华电动汽车品牌。</blockquote></p><p> The company not only boasts leading-edge EV technology, but also has&nbsp;solid growth plans. Though Lucid started as a luxury car maker, it has plans to launch EV models for the mass market in the coming years. With one of the most&nbsp;efficient EV technologies, Lucid can potentially generate recurring revenue by licensing its technology to other car companies.&nbsp;The stock will be&nbsp;included&nbsp;in the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq-100</b>&nbsp;index on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>该公司不仅拥有领先的电动汽车技术，还拥有坚实的增长计划。尽管 Lucid 最初是一家豪华汽车制造商，但它计划在未来几年推出面向大众市场的电动汽车车型。凭借最高效的电动汽车技术之一，Lucid 有可能通过将其技术授权给其他汽车公司来产生经常性收入。该股票将被纳入<b>纳斯达克-100</b>12月20日指数。</blockquote></p><p> On the risk side, Lucid is still to prove that it can deliver cars profitably. Investors should also keep an eye on the progress of a&nbsp;recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation&nbsp;relating to its merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV.</p><p><blockquote>在风险方面，Lucid 仍需证明它可以盈利地交付汽车。投资者还应关注美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最近对其与 Churchill Capital Corp. IV 合并进行的调查进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0630d0ca5a26df1b8900958ace25117\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1327\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: LUCID GROUP.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：LUCID集团。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BYD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比亚迪</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1995,<b>BYD</b>(OTC:BYDDY)(OTC:BYDD.F)&nbsp;entered the automobile business in 2003. Apart from automobiles, BYD manufactures mobile handset components, rechargeable batteries, and solar products.<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)&nbsp;holds a nearly 8% stake in BYD.</p><p><blockquote>成立于1995年，<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：BYDD.F）于2003年进入汽车业务。除汽车外，比亚迪还生产手机零部件、可充电电池和太阳能产品。<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）持有比亚迪近8%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8e45b9379833fe0a8f6a1d482857a5\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1161\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD started as an internal combustion engine vehicle manufacturer. Yet, sensing the broader trend, it has quickly shifted to making electric vehicles. In November, more than 90% of BYD's vehicle deliveries were fully electric or plug-in hybrids. Sales of BYD's fully electric models rose 153% year over year in November.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪最初是一家内燃机汽车制造商。然而，察觉到更广泛的趋势，它已迅速转向制造电动汽车。11月份，比亚迪90%以上的汽车交付量为纯电动或插电式混合动力汽车。11月份比亚迪纯电动车型销量同比增长153%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has captured roughly 18% of China's EV market. A leading position in the fast-growing, huge potential Chinese EV market places BYD well for long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司已占据中国电动汽车市场约 18% 的份额。比亚迪在快速增长、潜力巨大的中国电动汽车市场中处于领先地位，有利于长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> BYD stock trades at an&nbsp;attractive valuation&nbsp;compared to several top EV stocks right now. All of the above makes this&nbsp;Warren Buffett stock&nbsp;attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与目前几只顶级电动汽车股票相比，比亚迪股票的估值具有吸引力。以上所有因素都使这只沃伦·巴菲特股票具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>QuantumScape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>量子景观</b></blockquote></p><p> Batteries are a key component of electric vehicles. All leading auto and battery companies are focused on making batteries more efficient, which will help enhance an EV's range.<b>QuantumScape</b>(NYSE:QS), which went public in November 2020, is a battery start-up working on the next-generation battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>电池是电动汽车的关键部件。所有领先的汽车和电池公司都专注于提高电池的效率，这将有助于提高电动汽车的续航里程。<b>量子景观</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：QS）于2020年11月上市，是一家致力于下一代电池技术的电池初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, lithium-ion batteries are used in electric vehicles. QuantumScape is developing lithium-metal solid-state batteries, using a proprietary ceramic separator. The company believes that its batteries will offer greater energy density, longer life, and faster charging than lithium-ion batteries currently in use.</p><p><blockquote>目前，锂离子电池用于电动汽车。QuantumScape 正在开发锂金属固态电池，使用专有的陶瓷隔膜。该公司相信，与目前使用的锂离子电池相比，其电池将提供更高的能量密度、更长的寿命和更快的充电速度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6ead4e5b8f1aaa74490058d439dbfa\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape has the backing of leading automaker&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY), which has invested $300 million into the battery technology company so far. The two companies have formed a joint venture for a production capacity of 21 gigawatt-hours per year. In September, QuantumScape entered an agreement for 10 megawatt-hours of batteries with another top ten automaker by revenue. The company didn't disclose the name of the automaker. All the above lend credibility to QuantumScape's plans. If successful, QuantumScape's batteries could see immense demand from automakers worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>QuantumScape 得到领先汽车制造商的支持<b>大众汽车</b>（场外交易代码：VWAGY），迄今为止已向这家电池技术公司投资了 3 亿美元。两家公司成立了一家合资企业，年产能为21吉瓦时。9 月，QuantumScape 与另一家收入排名前十的汽车制造商签订了 10 兆瓦时电池的协议。该公司没有透露汽车制造商的名称。以上所有这些都为 QuantumScape 的计划增添了可信度。如果成功，QuantumScape 的电池可能会受到全球汽车制造商的巨大需求。</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape believes it is progressing as per its plan to start commercial production in 2024. That's a long time and the company's batteries are not yet developed. Investors should&nbsp;bear the risks in mind&nbsp;before deciding to invest in QuantumScape stock.</p><p><blockquote>QuantumScape 相信其正在按照 2024 年开始商业生产的计划取得进展。那是很长一段时间，而且该公司的电池还没有开发出来。投资者在决定投资 QuantumScape 股票之前应牢记风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Missed Out on Tesla? Here's What to Buy Now<blockquote>错过了特斯拉？这是现在要买的东西</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMissed Out on Tesla? Here's What to Buy Now<blockquote>错过了特斯拉？这是现在要买的东西</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 11:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the last two years,<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;stock has surged more than 1,000%. Investors who missed investing in Tesla two years back could be disheartened. Yet it is worth noting that it is difficult to foresee stocks that can generate Tesla-like returns. The best approach is to invest in companies that you believe can perform well in the long haul. Stocks of such quality companies should generate market-beating returns if you hold them long enough.</p><p><blockquote>近两年来，<b>特斯拉</b>股价飙升超过 1,000%。两年前错过投资特斯拉的投资者可能会感到沮丧。然而值得注意的是，很难预见能够产生类似特斯拉回报的股票。最好的方法是投资那些你认为能长期表现良好的公司。如果你持有这些优质公司的股票足够长的时间，它们应该会产生跑赢市场的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at three&nbsp;electric vehicle (EV) stocks&nbsp;that have the potential to generate outsize returns in five years, or more.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看三只有可能在五年或更长时间内产生巨额回报的电动汽车 (EV) 股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid集团</b></blockquote></p><p> There is a plethora of electric vehicle stocks to choose from right now. Of these,<b>Lucid Group</b>(NASDAQ:LCID)&nbsp;looks promising. There are several reasons to like Lucid Group. Users like the cars' features and designs, and within a short time, Lucid has succeeded in establishing itself as a luxury electric car brand.</p><p><blockquote>现在有太多的电动汽车股票可供选择。其中，<b>Lucid集团</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）看起来很有希望。喜欢Lucid Group有几个原因。用户喜欢这些汽车的功能和设计，在很短的时间内，Lucid就成功地将自己打造成了一个豪华电动汽车品牌。</blockquote></p><p> The company not only boasts leading-edge EV technology, but also has&nbsp;solid growth plans. Though Lucid started as a luxury car maker, it has plans to launch EV models for the mass market in the coming years. With one of the most&nbsp;efficient EV technologies, Lucid can potentially generate recurring revenue by licensing its technology to other car companies.&nbsp;The stock will be&nbsp;included&nbsp;in the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq-100</b>&nbsp;index on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>该公司不仅拥有领先的电动汽车技术，还拥有坚实的增长计划。尽管 Lucid 最初是一家豪华汽车制造商，但它计划在未来几年推出面向大众市场的电动汽车车型。凭借最高效的电动汽车技术之一，Lucid 有可能通过将其技术授权给其他汽车公司来产生经常性收入。该股票将被纳入<b>纳斯达克-100</b>12月20日指数。</blockquote></p><p> On the risk side, Lucid is still to prove that it can deliver cars profitably. Investors should also keep an eye on the progress of a&nbsp;recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation&nbsp;relating to its merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV.</p><p><blockquote>在风险方面，Lucid 仍需证明它可以盈利地交付汽车。投资者还应关注美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最近对其与 Churchill Capital Corp. IV 合并进行的调查进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0630d0ca5a26df1b8900958ace25117\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1327\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: LUCID GROUP.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：LUCID集团。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BYD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比亚迪</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1995,<b>BYD</b>(OTC:BYDDY)(OTC:BYDD.F)&nbsp;entered the automobile business in 2003. Apart from automobiles, BYD manufactures mobile handset components, rechargeable batteries, and solar products.<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)&nbsp;holds a nearly 8% stake in BYD.</p><p><blockquote>成立于1995年，<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：BYDD.F）于2003年进入汽车业务。除汽车外，比亚迪还生产手机零部件、可充电电池和太阳能产品。<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）持有比亚迪近8%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8e45b9379833fe0a8f6a1d482857a5\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1161\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD started as an internal combustion engine vehicle manufacturer. Yet, sensing the broader trend, it has quickly shifted to making electric vehicles. In November, more than 90% of BYD's vehicle deliveries were fully electric or plug-in hybrids. Sales of BYD's fully electric models rose 153% year over year in November.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪最初是一家内燃机汽车制造商。然而，察觉到更广泛的趋势，它已迅速转向制造电动汽车。11月份，比亚迪90%以上的汽车交付量为纯电动或插电式混合动力汽车。11月份比亚迪纯电动车型销量同比增长153%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has captured roughly 18% of China's EV market. A leading position in the fast-growing, huge potential Chinese EV market places BYD well for long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司已占据中国电动汽车市场约 18% 的份额。比亚迪在快速增长、潜力巨大的中国电动汽车市场中处于领先地位，有利于长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> BYD stock trades at an&nbsp;attractive valuation&nbsp;compared to several top EV stocks right now. All of the above makes this&nbsp;Warren Buffett stock&nbsp;attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与目前几只顶级电动汽车股票相比，比亚迪股票的估值具有吸引力。以上所有因素都使这只沃伦·巴菲特股票具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>QuantumScape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>量子景观</b></blockquote></p><p> Batteries are a key component of electric vehicles. All leading auto and battery companies are focused on making batteries more efficient, which will help enhance an EV's range.<b>QuantumScape</b>(NYSE:QS), which went public in November 2020, is a battery start-up working on the next-generation battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>电池是电动汽车的关键部件。所有领先的汽车和电池公司都专注于提高电池的效率，这将有助于提高电动汽车的续航里程。<b>量子景观</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：QS）于2020年11月上市，是一家致力于下一代电池技术的电池初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, lithium-ion batteries are used in electric vehicles. QuantumScape is developing lithium-metal solid-state batteries, using a proprietary ceramic separator. The company believes that its batteries will offer greater energy density, longer life, and faster charging than lithium-ion batteries currently in use.</p><p><blockquote>目前，锂离子电池用于电动汽车。QuantumScape 正在开发锂金属固态电池，使用专有的陶瓷隔膜。该公司相信，与目前使用的锂离子电池相比，其电池将提供更高的能量密度、更长的寿命和更快的充电速度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6ead4e5b8f1aaa74490058d439dbfa\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape has the backing of leading automaker&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY), which has invested $300 million into the battery technology company so far. The two companies have formed a joint venture for a production capacity of 21 gigawatt-hours per year. In September, QuantumScape entered an agreement for 10 megawatt-hours of batteries with another top ten automaker by revenue. The company didn't disclose the name of the automaker. All the above lend credibility to QuantumScape's plans. If successful, QuantumScape's batteries could see immense demand from automakers worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>QuantumScape 得到领先汽车制造商的支持<b>大众汽车</b>（场外交易代码：VWAGY），迄今为止已向这家电池技术公司投资了 3 亿美元。两家公司成立了一家合资企业，年产能为21吉瓦时。9 月，QuantumScape 与另一家收入排名前十的汽车制造商签订了 10 兆瓦时电池的协议。该公司没有透露汽车制造商的名称。以上所有这些都为 QuantumScape 的计划增添了可信度。如果成功，QuantumScape 的电池可能会受到全球汽车制造商的巨大需求。</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape believes it is progressing as per its plan to start commercial production in 2024. That's a long time and the company's batteries are not yet developed. Investors should&nbsp;bear the risks in mind&nbsp;before deciding to invest in QuantumScape stock.</p><p><blockquote>QuantumScape 相信其正在按照 2024 年开始商业生产的计划取得进展。那是很长一段时间，而且该公司的电池还没有开发出来。投资者在决定投资 QuantumScape 股票之前应牢记风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/missed-out-on-tesla-heres-what-to-buy-now/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/missed-out-on-tesla-heres-what-to-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115262079","content_text":"In the last two years,Tesla stock has surged more than 1,000%. Investors who missed investing in Tesla two years back could be disheartened. Yet it is worth noting that it is difficult to foresee stocks that can generate Tesla-like returns. The best approach is to invest in companies that you believe can perform well in the long haul. Stocks of such quality companies should generate market-beating returns if you hold them long enough.\nLet's look at three electric vehicle (EV) stocks that have the potential to generate outsize returns in five years, or more.\nLucid Group\nThere is a plethora of electric vehicle stocks to choose from right now. Of these,Lucid Group(NASDAQ:LCID) looks promising. There are several reasons to like Lucid Group. Users like the cars' features and designs, and within a short time, Lucid has succeeded in establishing itself as a luxury electric car brand.\nThe company not only boasts leading-edge EV technology, but also has solid growth plans. Though Lucid started as a luxury car maker, it has plans to launch EV models for the mass market in the coming years. With one of the most efficient EV technologies, Lucid can potentially generate recurring revenue by licensing its technology to other car companies. The stock will be included in the Nasdaq-100 index on Dec. 20.\nOn the risk side, Lucid is still to prove that it can deliver cars profitably. Investors should also keep an eye on the progress of a recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation relating to its merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV.\nIMAGE SOURCE: LUCID GROUP.\nBYD\nFounded in 1995,BYD(OTC:BYDDY)(OTC:BYDD.F) entered the automobile business in 2003. Apart from automobiles, BYD manufactures mobile handset components, rechargeable batteries, and solar products.Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) holds a nearly 8% stake in BYD.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nBYD started as an internal combustion engine vehicle manufacturer. Yet, sensing the broader trend, it has quickly shifted to making electric vehicles. In November, more than 90% of BYD's vehicle deliveries were fully electric or plug-in hybrids. Sales of BYD's fully electric models rose 153% year over year in November.\nThe company has captured roughly 18% of China's EV market. A leading position in the fast-growing, huge potential Chinese EV market places BYD well for long-term growth.\nBYD stock trades at an attractive valuation compared to several top EV stocks right now. All of the above makes this Warren Buffett stock attractive.\nQuantumScape\nBatteries are a key component of electric vehicles. All leading auto and battery companies are focused on making batteries more efficient, which will help enhance an EV's range.QuantumScape(NYSE:QS), which went public in November 2020, is a battery start-up working on the next-generation battery technology.\nCurrently, lithium-ion batteries are used in electric vehicles. QuantumScape is developing lithium-metal solid-state batteries, using a proprietary ceramic separator. The company believes that its batteries will offer greater energy density, longer life, and faster charging than lithium-ion batteries currently in use.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nQuantumScape has the backing of leading automaker Volkswagen(OTC:VWAGY), which has invested $300 million into the battery technology company so far. The two companies have formed a joint venture for a production capacity of 21 gigawatt-hours per year. In September, QuantumScape entered an agreement for 10 megawatt-hours of batteries with another top ten automaker by revenue. The company didn't disclose the name of the automaker. All the above lend credibility to QuantumScape's plans. If successful, QuantumScape's batteries could see immense demand from automakers worldwide.\nQuantumScape believes it is progressing as per its plan to start commercial production in 2024. That's a long time and the company's batteries are not yet developed. Investors should bear the risks in mind before deciding to invest in QuantumScape stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"QS":0.9,"BYDDY":0.9,"01211":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607760188,"gmtCreate":1639599769072,"gmtModify":1639599769361,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Here marks the crash","listText":"Here marks the crash","text":"Here marks the crash","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607760188","repostId":"1111705843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111705843","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639594904,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111705843?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 03:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed will aggressively dial back its monthly bond buying, sees three rate hikes next year<blockquote>美联储将大幅减少每月债券购买，预计明年将加息三次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111705843","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Federal Reserve provided multiple indications Wednesday that its run of ultra-easy policy since ","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve provided multiple indications Wednesday that its run of ultra-easy policy since the beginning of the Covid pandemic is coming to a close, making moves that were even more aggressive than markets had anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三提供了多个迹象，表明自新冠疫情开始以来的超宽松政策即将结束，其举措比市场预期的更加激进。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Fed said it will accelerate the reduction of its monthly bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美联储表示将加快减少每月债券购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will be buying $60 billion of bonds each month starting January, half the level prior to the November taper and $30 billion less than it had been buying in December. The Fed was tapering by $15 billion a month in November, doubled that in December, then will accelerate the reduction further come 2022.</p><p><blockquote>从1月份开始，美联储每月将购买600亿美元债券，是11月份缩减债券规模前水平的一半，比12月份减少300亿美元。美联储11月份每月缩减150亿美元，是12月份的两倍，然后将在2022年进一步加速缩减。</blockquote></p><p> After that wraps up, probably around March, the central bank expects to start raising interest rates, which were held steady at this week’s meeting.</p><p><blockquote>在此之后，央行预计将在 3 月份左右开始加息，而在本周的会议上，利率一直保持稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Projections released Wednesday indicate that Fed officials see as many as three rate hikes coming in 2022, with two in the following year and two more in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>周三发布的预测显示，美联储官员预计 2022 年将加息多达三次，明年加息两次，2024 年再加息两次。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s moves, approved unanimously, represent a substantial adjustment to policy that has been the loosest in its 108-year history. The post-meeting statement noted the impact from inflation.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会的举措获得了一致通过，这是对其 108 年历史上最宽松政策的重大调整。会后声明指出了通货膨胀的影响。</blockquote></p><p> “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement said.</p><p><blockquote>“声明说：”与大流行病和经济重新开放有关的供需失衡继续导致通货膨胀水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> The statement also noted that “job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment&nbsp;rate has declined substantially.”</p><p><blockquote>声明还指出，“近几个月来就业增长稳健，失业率大幅下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Both policy moves came in response to escalating inflation, which is running at its highest level in 39 years for consumer prices. Wholesale prices in November jumped 9.6%, the fastest on record in a sign that inflation pressures are becoming more ingrained and broad-based.</p><p><blockquote>这两项政策举措都是为了应对不断升级的通货膨胀，消费者价格正处于 39 年来的最高水平。11 月份批发价格上涨 9.6%，创下有记录以来最快的涨幅，这表明通胀压力变得更加根深蒂固和广泛。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials long have stressed that inflation is “transitory,” which Chairman Jerome Powell has defined as unlikely to leave a lasting imprint on the economy. He and other central bank leaders, as well as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, have stressed that prices are booming due to pandemic-related factors such as extraordinary demand that has outstripped supply but ultimately will fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员长期以来一直强调通胀是 “暂时的”，主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将通胀定义为不太可能给经济留下持久印记。他和其他央行领导人以及财政部长珍妮特·耶伦都强调，由于与大流行相关的因素，例如需求超过供应但最终会消退的异常需求，价格正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> However, the term had become a pejorative and the post-meeting statement eliminated it. Powell telegraphed the move during congressional testimony last month, saying “it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we meant.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，这个词已经变成了贬义词，会后声明取消了它。鲍威尔在上个月的国会作证时传达了这一举动，他说：“现在可能是时候收回这个词，并试图更清楚地解释我们的意思了。”</blockquote></p><p> For the Powell Fed, tightening policy now marks a dramatic pivot off a policy enacted just over a year ago. Known as “flexible average inflation targeting,” which meant it would be content with inflation a little above or below its long-held 2% target.</p><p><blockquote>对于鲍威尔美联储来说，现在的紧缩政策标志着一年多前制定的政策发生了戏剧性的转变。被称为 “灵活的平均通胀目标”，这意味着它对通胀率略高于或低于其长期持有的 2% 目标感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> The policy’s practical application was that the Fed was willing to let inflation run a little hot in the interest of completely healing the labor market from the hit it took during the pandemic. The Fed’s new policy sought employment that was both full and inclusive across racial, gender and economic lines. Officials agreed not to raise interest rates in anticipation of rising inflation, as the central bank had done in the past.</p><p><blockquote>该政策的实际应用是，美联储愿意让通胀稍微升温，以彻底治愈劳动力市场在大流行病期间遭受的打击。美联储的新政策寻求跨越种族、性别和经济界限的充分和包容性就业。官员们同意不像央行过去那样，因预期通胀上升而加息。</blockquote></p><p> However, as the “transitory” narrative came into question and inflation began to look stronger and more durable, the Fed has had to rethink its intentions and change gears.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着 “过渡性 ”说法受到质疑，通胀开始变得更加强劲和持久，美联储不得不重新考虑其意图并改变方向。</blockquote></p><p> The asset purchase taper began in November, with a reduction of $10 billion in Treasury purchases and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities. That still left the month buys at $70 billion and $35 billion respectively.</p><p><blockquote>资产购买缩减于11月开始，减少了100亿美元的国债购买和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。这使得当月的购买量分别达到 700 亿美元和 350 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, the Fed’s $8.7 trillion balance sheet increased by just $2 billion over the past four weeks, with Treasury holdings up $52 billion and MBS actually reduced by $23 billion. Over the past 12 months, Treasury holdings have expanded by $978 billion while MBS have risen by $567 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储8.7万亿美元的资产负债表在过去四周仅增加了20亿美元，美国国债持有量增加了520亿美元，MBS实际上减少了230亿美元。过去 12 个月，美国国债持有量增加了 9,780 亿美元，而 MBS 增加了 5,670 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Under the new terms of a program also known as quantitative easing, the Fed would accelerate the decline of its holdings until it is no longer adding to its portfolio. That would bring QE to an end in the spring and allow the Fed to raise rates anytime after. The Fed has said it likely would not raise rates and continue buying bonds simultaneously, as the two moves would work at cross purposes.</p><p><blockquote>根据也称为量化宽松的计划的新条款，美联储将加速其持有量的减少，直到不再增加其投资组合。这将在春季结束量化宽松，并允许美联储随时加息。美联储表示，可能不会同时加息和继续购买债券，因为这两项举措将具有交叉目的。</blockquote></p><p> From there, the Fed at anytime could start reducing its balance sheet either by selling securities outright, or, in the more likely scenario, begin allowing the proceeds of its current bond holdings to run off each month at a controlled pace.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，美联储可以随时开始缩减资产负债表，要么直接出售证券，要么在更有可能的情况下，开始允许其当前持有的债券收益每月以可控的速度流失。</blockquote></p><p> Powell likely will face questioning at his 2:30 p.m. ET news conference about the future of the balance sheet, which has expanded by nearly $3.9 trillion since the early pandemic days.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔可能会在下午 2:30 的美国东部时间新闻发布会上就资产负债表的未来提出质疑，自疫情初期以来，资产负债表已经扩大了近 3.9 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed will aggressively dial back its monthly bond buying, sees three rate hikes next year<blockquote>美联储将大幅减少每月债券购买，预计明年将加息三次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed will aggressively dial back its monthly bond buying, sees three rate hikes next year<blockquote>美联储将大幅减少每月债券购买，预计明年将加息三次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 03:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve provided multiple indications Wednesday that its run of ultra-easy policy since the beginning of the Covid pandemic is coming to a close, making moves that were even more aggressive than markets had anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三提供了多个迹象，表明自新冠疫情开始以来的超宽松政策即将结束，其举措比市场预期的更加激进。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Fed said it will accelerate the reduction of its monthly bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美联储表示将加快减少每月债券购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will be buying $60 billion of bonds each month starting January, half the level prior to the November taper and $30 billion less than it had been buying in December. The Fed was tapering by $15 billion a month in November, doubled that in December, then will accelerate the reduction further come 2022.</p><p><blockquote>从1月份开始，美联储每月将购买600亿美元债券，是11月份缩减债券规模前水平的一半，比12月份减少300亿美元。美联储11月份每月缩减150亿美元，是12月份的两倍，然后将在2022年进一步加速缩减。</blockquote></p><p> After that wraps up, probably around March, the central bank expects to start raising interest rates, which were held steady at this week’s meeting.</p><p><blockquote>在此之后，央行预计将在 3 月份左右开始加息，而在本周的会议上，利率一直保持稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Projections released Wednesday indicate that Fed officials see as many as three rate hikes coming in 2022, with two in the following year and two more in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>周三发布的预测显示，美联储官员预计 2022 年将加息多达三次，明年加息两次，2024 年再加息两次。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s moves, approved unanimously, represent a substantial adjustment to policy that has been the loosest in its 108-year history. The post-meeting statement noted the impact from inflation.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会的举措获得了一致通过，这是对其 108 年历史上最宽松政策的重大调整。会后声明指出了通货膨胀的影响。</blockquote></p><p> “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement said.</p><p><blockquote>“声明说：”与大流行病和经济重新开放有关的供需失衡继续导致通货膨胀水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> The statement also noted that “job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment&nbsp;rate has declined substantially.”</p><p><blockquote>声明还指出，“近几个月来就业增长稳健，失业率大幅下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Both policy moves came in response to escalating inflation, which is running at its highest level in 39 years for consumer prices. Wholesale prices in November jumped 9.6%, the fastest on record in a sign that inflation pressures are becoming more ingrained and broad-based.</p><p><blockquote>这两项政策举措都是为了应对不断升级的通货膨胀，消费者价格正处于 39 年来的最高水平。11 月份批发价格上涨 9.6%，创下有记录以来最快的涨幅，这表明通胀压力变得更加根深蒂固和广泛。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials long have stressed that inflation is “transitory,” which Chairman Jerome Powell has defined as unlikely to leave a lasting imprint on the economy. He and other central bank leaders, as well as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, have stressed that prices are booming due to pandemic-related factors such as extraordinary demand that has outstripped supply but ultimately will fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员长期以来一直强调通胀是 “暂时的”，主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将通胀定义为不太可能给经济留下持久印记。他和其他央行领导人以及财政部长珍妮特·耶伦都强调，由于与大流行相关的因素，例如需求超过供应但最终会消退的异常需求，价格正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> However, the term had become a pejorative and the post-meeting statement eliminated it. Powell telegraphed the move during congressional testimony last month, saying “it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we meant.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，这个词已经变成了贬义词，会后声明取消了它。鲍威尔在上个月的国会作证时传达了这一举动，他说：“现在可能是时候收回这个词，并试图更清楚地解释我们的意思了。”</blockquote></p><p> For the Powell Fed, tightening policy now marks a dramatic pivot off a policy enacted just over a year ago. Known as “flexible average inflation targeting,” which meant it would be content with inflation a little above or below its long-held 2% target.</p><p><blockquote>对于鲍威尔美联储来说，现在的紧缩政策标志着一年多前制定的政策发生了戏剧性的转变。被称为 “灵活的平均通胀目标”，这意味着它对通胀率略高于或低于其长期持有的 2% 目标感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> The policy’s practical application was that the Fed was willing to let inflation run a little hot in the interest of completely healing the labor market from the hit it took during the pandemic. The Fed’s new policy sought employment that was both full and inclusive across racial, gender and economic lines. Officials agreed not to raise interest rates in anticipation of rising inflation, as the central bank had done in the past.</p><p><blockquote>该政策的实际应用是，美联储愿意让通胀稍微升温，以彻底治愈劳动力市场在大流行病期间遭受的打击。美联储的新政策寻求跨越种族、性别和经济界限的充分和包容性就业。官员们同意不像央行过去那样，因预期通胀上升而加息。</blockquote></p><p> However, as the “transitory” narrative came into question and inflation began to look stronger and more durable, the Fed has had to rethink its intentions and change gears.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着 “过渡性 ”说法受到质疑，通胀开始变得更加强劲和持久，美联储不得不重新考虑其意图并改变方向。</blockquote></p><p> The asset purchase taper began in November, with a reduction of $10 billion in Treasury purchases and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities. That still left the month buys at $70 billion and $35 billion respectively.</p><p><blockquote>资产购买缩减于11月开始，减少了100亿美元的国债购买和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。这使得当月的购买量分别达到 700 亿美元和 350 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, the Fed’s $8.7 trillion balance sheet increased by just $2 billion over the past four weeks, with Treasury holdings up $52 billion and MBS actually reduced by $23 billion. Over the past 12 months, Treasury holdings have expanded by $978 billion while MBS have risen by $567 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储8.7万亿美元的资产负债表在过去四周仅增加了20亿美元，美国国债持有量增加了520亿美元，MBS实际上减少了230亿美元。过去 12 个月，美国国债持有量增加了 9,780 亿美元，而 MBS 增加了 5,670 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Under the new terms of a program also known as quantitative easing, the Fed would accelerate the decline of its holdings until it is no longer adding to its portfolio. That would bring QE to an end in the spring and allow the Fed to raise rates anytime after. The Fed has said it likely would not raise rates and continue buying bonds simultaneously, as the two moves would work at cross purposes.</p><p><blockquote>根据也称为量化宽松的计划的新条款，美联储将加速其持有量的减少，直到不再增加其投资组合。这将在春季结束量化宽松，并允许美联储随时加息。美联储表示，可能不会同时加息和继续购买债券，因为这两项举措将具有交叉目的。</blockquote></p><p> From there, the Fed at anytime could start reducing its balance sheet either by selling securities outright, or, in the more likely scenario, begin allowing the proceeds of its current bond holdings to run off each month at a controlled pace.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，美联储可以随时开始缩减资产负债表，要么直接出售证券，要么在更有可能的情况下，开始允许其当前持有的债券收益每月以可控的速度流失。</blockquote></p><p> Powell likely will face questioning at his 2:30 p.m. ET news conference about the future of the balance sheet, which has expanded by nearly $3.9 trillion since the early pandemic days.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔可能会在下午 2:30 的美国东部时间新闻发布会上就资产负债表的未来提出质疑，自疫情初期以来，资产负债表已经扩大了近 3.9 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111705843","content_text":"The Federal Reserve provided multiple indications Wednesday that its run of ultra-easy policy since the beginning of the Covid pandemic is coming to a close, making moves that were even more aggressive than markets had anticipated.\nFor one, the Fed said it will accelerate the reduction of its monthly bond purchases.\nThe Fed will be buying $60 billion of bonds each month starting January, half the level prior to the November taper and $30 billion less than it had been buying in December. The Fed was tapering by $15 billion a month in November, doubled that in December, then will accelerate the reduction further come 2022.\nAfter that wraps up, probably around March, the central bank expects to start raising interest rates, which were held steady at this week’s meeting.\nProjections released Wednesday indicate that Fed officials see as many as three rate hikes coming in 2022, with two in the following year and two more in 2024.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s moves, approved unanimously, represent a substantial adjustment to policy that has been the loosest in its 108-year history. The post-meeting statement noted the impact from inflation.\n“Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement said.\nThe statement also noted that “job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.”\nBoth policy moves came in response to escalating inflation, which is running at its highest level in 39 years for consumer prices. Wholesale prices in November jumped 9.6%, the fastest on record in a sign that inflation pressures are becoming more ingrained and broad-based.\nFed officials long have stressed that inflation is “transitory,” which Chairman Jerome Powell has defined as unlikely to leave a lasting imprint on the economy. He and other central bank leaders, as well as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, have stressed that prices are booming due to pandemic-related factors such as extraordinary demand that has outstripped supply but ultimately will fade.\nHowever, the term had become a pejorative and the post-meeting statement eliminated it. Powell telegraphed the move during congressional testimony last month, saying “it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we meant.”\nFor the Powell Fed, tightening policy now marks a dramatic pivot off a policy enacted just over a year ago. Known as “flexible average inflation targeting,” which meant it would be content with inflation a little above or below its long-held 2% target.\nThe policy’s practical application was that the Fed was willing to let inflation run a little hot in the interest of completely healing the labor market from the hit it took during the pandemic. The Fed’s new policy sought employment that was both full and inclusive across racial, gender and economic lines. Officials agreed not to raise interest rates in anticipation of rising inflation, as the central bank had done in the past.\nHowever, as the “transitory” narrative came into question and inflation began to look stronger and more durable, the Fed has had to rethink its intentions and change gears.\nThe asset purchase taper began in November, with a reduction of $10 billion in Treasury purchases and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities. That still left the month buys at $70 billion and $35 billion respectively.\nHowever, the Fed’s $8.7 trillion balance sheet increased by just $2 billion over the past four weeks, with Treasury holdings up $52 billion and MBS actually reduced by $23 billion. Over the past 12 months, Treasury holdings have expanded by $978 billion while MBS have risen by $567 billion.\nUnder the new terms of a program also known as quantitative easing, the Fed would accelerate the decline of its holdings until it is no longer adding to its portfolio. That would bring QE to an end in the spring and allow the Fed to raise rates anytime after. The Fed has said it likely would not raise rates and continue buying bonds simultaneously, as the two moves would work at cross purposes.\nFrom there, the Fed at anytime could start reducing its balance sheet either by selling securities outright, or, in the more likely scenario, begin allowing the proceeds of its current bond holdings to run off each month at a controlled pace.\nPowell likely will face questioning at his 2:30 p.m. ET news conference about the future of the balance sheet, which has expanded by nearly $3.9 trillion since the early pandemic days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607034870,"gmtCreate":1639455512995,"gmtModify":1639455513243,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The list is endless","listText":"The list is endless","text":"The list is endless","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607034870","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605835879,"gmtCreate":1639143101090,"gmtModify":1639143179272,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605835879","repostId":"1115031273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115031273","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639143317,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115031273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 21:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115031273","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock-market index trade higher after inflation report.\nAt 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 176 poi","content":"<p>Stock-market index trade higher after inflation report.</p><p><blockquote>通胀报告公布后，股市指数走高。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 176 points, or 0.49%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 30.75 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:34，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 176 点，涨幅 0.49%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 30.75 点，涨幅 0.66%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 115.25 点，涨幅 0.71%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022d770c8d408fcc5c7a5267e1fa96a1\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Inflation accelerated at its fastest pace since 1982 in November, the Labor Department said Friday, putting pressure on the economic recovery and raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五表示，11 月份通胀以 1982 年以来最快的速度加速，给经济复苏带来压力，并增加了美联储的风险。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a wide-ranging basket of goods, rose 0.8% for the month, good for a 6.8% pace on a year over year basis and the fastest rate since June 1982.</p><p><blockquote>衡量一篮子商品成本的消费者价格指数本月上涨0.8%，同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最快涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.5% for the month and 4.9% from a year ago, which itself was the sharpest pickup since mid-1991.</p><p><blockquote>剔除食品和能源价格，所谓的核心CPI当月上涨0.5%，同比上涨4.9%，这本身就是自1991年年中以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones estimate was for a 6.7% annual gain for headline CPI and 4.9% for core.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯预计总体 CPI 年增长率为 6.7%，核心 CPI 年增长率为 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla(TSLA)</b>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tesla Inc&nbsp;Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold another 934,091 shares of the electric vehicle maker worth $963.2 million, U.S. securities filings showed on Thursday.He also exercised stock options to buy 2.17 million shares of Tesla, according to the filings.Musk is \"thinking of\" leaving his jobs and becoming an influencer, the world's richest man tweeted on Thursday.It was not immediately clear if Musk, a prolific user of the social media platform, was being serious about quitting his roles.Tesla shares dropped more&nbsp;than&nbsp;1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉（TSLA）</b>– 美国证券文件周四显示，特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克又出售了这家电动汽车制造商的 934,091 股股票，价值 9.632 亿美元。文件显示，他还行使股票期权购买了 217 万股特斯拉股票。这位世界首富周四在推特上表示，马斯克正在“考虑”离职并成为一名有影响力的人。目前尚不清楚社交媒体平台的多产用户马斯克是否认真考虑辞去职务。特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌超过 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oracle(ORCL) </b>– Oracle shares surged 12% in the premarket, after quarterly sales and revenue beat estimates and the business software company announced a $10 billion increase in its share repurchase program.&nbsp;Oracle earned an adjusted $1.21 per share, 10 cents above estimates, with particular strength for its cloud infrastructure business.</p><p><blockquote><b>甲骨文(ORCL)</b>- 在季度销售额和收入超出预期以及商业软件公司甲骨文宣布将股票回购计划增加 100 亿美元后，甲骨文股价在盘前飙升 12%。甲骨文调整后每股收益为 1.21 美元，比预期高出 10 美分，其中云基础设施业务表现尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Broadcom(AVGO)</b> – The chip maker’s shares rallied nearly 7% in premarket trading after it beat Street forecasts on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter.&nbsp;Broadcom earned an adjusted $7.81 per share, 7 cents above estimates, and also issued an upbeat forecast on continued high demand from its cloud computing customers.</p><p><blockquote><b>博通(AVGO)</b>- 这家芯片制造商的股价在盘前交易中上涨了近 7%，此前该公司最新一个季度的营收和利润均超出了华尔街的预期。博通调整后每股收益为 7.81 美元，比预期高出 7 美分，并对其云计算客户的持续高需求发布了乐观预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chewy(CHWY) </b>– The online pet products retailer’s stock tumbled 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss.&nbsp;Sales were in line with Street forecasts, but profit was impacted by higher costs for labor and supply chain issues.</p><p><blockquote><b>咀嚼</b>- 这家在线宠物用品零售商公布季度亏损超出预期，其股价在盘前暴跌 10%。销售额与华尔街预测一致，但利润受到劳动力成本上升和供应链问题的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna(MRNA)</b>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;shares&nbsp;plunged&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in premarket trading.Other vaccine stocks also fell.BioNTech&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;5%,Novavax&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>现代（MRNA）</b>– Moderna 股价在盘前交易中暴跌 10%。其他疫苗股也下跌。BioNTech下跌超过5%，Novavax下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lululemon(LULU)</b> – The athletic apparel maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of $1.62 per share, 21 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above forecasts as well.&nbsp;However, Lululemon also warned that new Covid-19 variants could impact demand for “athleisure” clothing if virus concerns lead to temporary store closures and further supply chain issues.&nbsp;The stock slid 1.3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>露露柠檬（露露）</b>- 这家运动服装制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 1.62 美元，比预期高出 21 美分，收入也略高于预期。不过，Lululemon 也警告说，如果病毒问题导致商店暂时关闭和进一步的供应链问题，新的 Covid-19 变种可能会影响 “运动休闲 ”服装的需求。该股在盘前交易中下跌了 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>C3Ai(AI)</b> – The artificial intelligence software company’s stock soared 20% in the premarket after it won a $500 million contract from the U.S. Department of Defense for its suite of AI products.</p><p><blockquote><b>C3Ai(AI)</b>- 这家人工智能软件公司赢得美国公司一份价值 5 亿美元的合同后，其股价在盘前飙升 20%。国防部的人工智能产品套件。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco(COST)</b> – The warehouse retailer earned $2.98 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.64, with revenue topping Street forecasts as well.&nbsp;The beat came despite higher costs and supply chain issues that Costco said it was able to largely mitigate.&nbsp;Costco rose 1.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多（成本）</b>- 这家仓储零售商最近一个季度的每股收益为 2.98 美元，而市场普遍预期为 2.64 美元，收入也超过了华尔街的预期。尽管成本上升和供应链问题，Costco 表示已在很大程度上缓解了这些问题，但仍取得了成功。Costco 在盘前上涨了 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat(BYND)</b> – Restaurant chain Taco Bell dropped plans to test Beyond Meat’s plant-based version of carne asada,according to a Bloomberg report.&nbsp;Taco Bell is said to have been dissatisfied with samples it received in October, although the companies continue to work together on new products.&nbsp;Beyond Meat slipped 1.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat（BYND）</b>- 据彭博社报道，连锁餐厅塔可钟放弃了测试Beyond Meat植物版 carne asada 的计划。据说塔可钟对 10 月份收到的样品并不满意，但两家公司仍在合作开发新产品。Beyond Meat在盘前交易中下跌了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>American Outdoor Brands(AOUT)</b> – The outdoor products maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 58 cents per share, well below the 76 cent consensus estimate, with revenue also falling short of analyst forecasts.&nbsp;The company said sales slowed due to a shift in customer purchase timing into the prior quarter to lessen supply chain concerns.&nbsp;American Outdoor shares plummeted 19% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国户外品牌(8月)</b>- 这家户外用品制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 58 美分，远低于 76 美分的一致预期，收入也低于分析师的预期。该公司表示，由于客户采购时间转移到上一季度，以减轻供应链担忧，销售放缓。美国户外用品股价在盘前暴跌 19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts(MTN)</b> – The resort operator lost $3.44 per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the loss of $3.62 that analysts had anticipated, thanks to a jump in season pass sales.&nbsp;However, revenue was below estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村(MTN)</b>- 由于季票销量激增，这家度假村运营商最近一个季度每股亏损 3.44 美元，低于分析师预期的 3.62 美元亏损。不过，收入低于预期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – The fitness equipment maker’s shares lost 3.6% in the premarket after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “outperform”.&nbsp;The firm noted a number of headwinds for Peloton, including a return to out-of-home fitness and a shift in consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote><b>排(PTON)</b>- 在瑞士信贷将 Peloton 的股票评级从 “跑赢大盘 ”下调至 “中性”后，这家健身器材制造商的股价在盘前下跌了 3.6%。该公司指出，Peloton 面临着一些不利因素，包括户外健身的回归和消费者支出的转变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment(AMC)</b> – The movie theater operator’s shares slid 1% in premarket trading, after SEC filings showed a sale of 312,500 shares by CEO Adam Aron and a sale of 18,000 shares by CFO Sean Goodman.&nbsp;Aron had indicated in November that he would soon begin selling shares as part of estate planning.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线(AMC)</b>- 在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件显示，首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）出售了 312,500 股股票，首席财务官肖恩-古德曼（Sean Goodman）出售了 18,000 股股票后，这家电影院运营商的股价在盘前交易中下跌了 1%。阿伦曾在 11 月表示，作为遗产规划的一部分，他将很快开始出售股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-10 21:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock-market index trade higher after inflation report.</p><p><blockquote>通胀报告公布后，股市指数走高。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 176 points, or 0.49%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 30.75 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:34，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 176 点，涨幅 0.49%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 30.75 点，涨幅 0.66%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 115.25 点，涨幅 0.71%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022d770c8d408fcc5c7a5267e1fa96a1\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Inflation accelerated at its fastest pace since 1982 in November, the Labor Department said Friday, putting pressure on the economic recovery and raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五表示，11 月份通胀以 1982 年以来最快的速度加速，给经济复苏带来压力，并增加了美联储的风险。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a wide-ranging basket of goods, rose 0.8% for the month, good for a 6.8% pace on a year over year basis and the fastest rate since June 1982.</p><p><blockquote>衡量一篮子商品成本的消费者价格指数本月上涨0.8%，同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最快涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.5% for the month and 4.9% from a year ago, which itself was the sharpest pickup since mid-1991.</p><p><blockquote>剔除食品和能源价格，所谓的核心CPI当月上涨0.5%，同比上涨4.9%，这本身就是自1991年年中以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones estimate was for a 6.7% annual gain for headline CPI and 4.9% for core.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯预计总体 CPI 年增长率为 6.7%，核心 CPI 年增长率为 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla(TSLA)</b>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tesla Inc&nbsp;Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold another 934,091 shares of the electric vehicle maker worth $963.2 million, U.S. securities filings showed on Thursday.He also exercised stock options to buy 2.17 million shares of Tesla, according to the filings.Musk is \"thinking of\" leaving his jobs and becoming an influencer, the world's richest man tweeted on Thursday.It was not immediately clear if Musk, a prolific user of the social media platform, was being serious about quitting his roles.Tesla shares dropped more&nbsp;than&nbsp;1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉（TSLA）</b>– 美国证券文件周四显示，特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克又出售了这家电动汽车制造商的 934,091 股股票，价值 9.632 亿美元。文件显示，他还行使股票期权购买了 217 万股特斯拉股票。这位世界首富周四在推特上表示，马斯克正在“考虑”离职并成为一名有影响力的人。目前尚不清楚社交媒体平台的多产用户马斯克是否认真考虑辞去职务。特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌超过 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oracle(ORCL) </b>– Oracle shares surged 12% in the premarket, after quarterly sales and revenue beat estimates and the business software company announced a $10 billion increase in its share repurchase program.&nbsp;Oracle earned an adjusted $1.21 per share, 10 cents above estimates, with particular strength for its cloud infrastructure business.</p><p><blockquote><b>甲骨文(ORCL)</b>- 在季度销售额和收入超出预期以及商业软件公司甲骨文宣布将股票回购计划增加 100 亿美元后，甲骨文股价在盘前飙升 12%。甲骨文调整后每股收益为 1.21 美元，比预期高出 10 美分，其中云基础设施业务表现尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Broadcom(AVGO)</b> – The chip maker’s shares rallied nearly 7% in premarket trading after it beat Street forecasts on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter.&nbsp;Broadcom earned an adjusted $7.81 per share, 7 cents above estimates, and also issued an upbeat forecast on continued high demand from its cloud computing customers.</p><p><blockquote><b>博通(AVGO)</b>- 这家芯片制造商的股价在盘前交易中上涨了近 7%，此前该公司最新一个季度的营收和利润均超出了华尔街的预期。博通调整后每股收益为 7.81 美元，比预期高出 7 美分，并对其云计算客户的持续高需求发布了乐观预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chewy(CHWY) </b>– The online pet products retailer’s stock tumbled 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss.&nbsp;Sales were in line with Street forecasts, but profit was impacted by higher costs for labor and supply chain issues.</p><p><blockquote><b>咀嚼</b>- 这家在线宠物用品零售商公布季度亏损超出预期，其股价在盘前暴跌 10%。销售额与华尔街预测一致，但利润受到劳动力成本上升和供应链问题的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna(MRNA)</b>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;shares&nbsp;plunged&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in premarket trading.Other vaccine stocks also fell.BioNTech&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;5%,Novavax&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>现代（MRNA）</b>– Moderna 股价在盘前交易中暴跌 10%。其他疫苗股也下跌。BioNTech下跌超过5%，Novavax下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lululemon(LULU)</b> – The athletic apparel maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of $1.62 per share, 21 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above forecasts as well.&nbsp;However, Lululemon also warned that new Covid-19 variants could impact demand for “athleisure” clothing if virus concerns lead to temporary store closures and further supply chain issues.&nbsp;The stock slid 1.3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>露露柠檬（露露）</b>- 这家运动服装制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 1.62 美元，比预期高出 21 美分，收入也略高于预期。不过，Lululemon 也警告说，如果病毒问题导致商店暂时关闭和进一步的供应链问题，新的 Covid-19 变种可能会影响 “运动休闲 ”服装的需求。该股在盘前交易中下跌了 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>C3Ai(AI)</b> – The artificial intelligence software company’s stock soared 20% in the premarket after it won a $500 million contract from the U.S. Department of Defense for its suite of AI products.</p><p><blockquote><b>C3Ai(AI)</b>- 这家人工智能软件公司赢得美国公司一份价值 5 亿美元的合同后，其股价在盘前飙升 20%。国防部的人工智能产品套件。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco(COST)</b> – The warehouse retailer earned $2.98 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.64, with revenue topping Street forecasts as well.&nbsp;The beat came despite higher costs and supply chain issues that Costco said it was able to largely mitigate.&nbsp;Costco rose 1.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多（成本）</b>- 这家仓储零售商最近一个季度的每股收益为 2.98 美元，而市场普遍预期为 2.64 美元，收入也超过了华尔街的预期。尽管成本上升和供应链问题，Costco 表示已在很大程度上缓解了这些问题，但仍取得了成功。Costco 在盘前上涨了 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat(BYND)</b> – Restaurant chain Taco Bell dropped plans to test Beyond Meat’s plant-based version of carne asada,according to a Bloomberg report.&nbsp;Taco Bell is said to have been dissatisfied with samples it received in October, although the companies continue to work together on new products.&nbsp;Beyond Meat slipped 1.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat（BYND）</b>- 据彭博社报道，连锁餐厅塔可钟放弃了测试Beyond Meat植物版 carne asada 的计划。据说塔可钟对 10 月份收到的样品并不满意，但两家公司仍在合作开发新产品。Beyond Meat在盘前交易中下跌了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>American Outdoor Brands(AOUT)</b> – The outdoor products maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 58 cents per share, well below the 76 cent consensus estimate, with revenue also falling short of analyst forecasts.&nbsp;The company said sales slowed due to a shift in customer purchase timing into the prior quarter to lessen supply chain concerns.&nbsp;American Outdoor shares plummeted 19% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国户外品牌(8月)</b>- 这家户外用品制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 58 美分，远低于 76 美分的一致预期，收入也低于分析师的预期。该公司表示，由于客户采购时间转移到上一季度，以减轻供应链担忧，销售放缓。美国户外用品股价在盘前暴跌 19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts(MTN)</b> – The resort operator lost $3.44 per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the loss of $3.62 that analysts had anticipated, thanks to a jump in season pass sales.&nbsp;However, revenue was below estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村(MTN)</b>- 由于季票销量激增，这家度假村运营商最近一个季度每股亏损 3.44 美元，低于分析师预期的 3.62 美元亏损。不过，收入低于预期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – The fitness equipment maker’s shares lost 3.6% in the premarket after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “outperform”.&nbsp;The firm noted a number of headwinds for Peloton, including a return to out-of-home fitness and a shift in consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote><b>排(PTON)</b>- 在瑞士信贷将 Peloton 的股票评级从 “跑赢大盘 ”下调至 “中性”后，这家健身器材制造商的股价在盘前下跌了 3.6%。该公司指出，Peloton 面临着一些不利因素，包括户外健身的回归和消费者支出的转变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment(AMC)</b> – The movie theater operator’s shares slid 1% in premarket trading, after SEC filings showed a sale of 312,500 shares by CEO Adam Aron and a sale of 18,000 shares by CFO Sean Goodman.&nbsp;Aron had indicated in November that he would soon begin selling shares as part of estate planning.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线(AMC)</b>- 在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件显示，首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）出售了 312,500 股股票，首席财务官肖恩-古德曼（Sean Goodman）出售了 18,000 股股票后，这家电影院运营商的股价在盘前交易中下跌了 1%。阿伦曾在 11 月表示，作为遗产规划的一部分，他将很快开始出售股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LULU":"lululemon athletica","ORCL":"甲骨文","MTN":"Vail Resorts Inc","COST":"好市多",".DJI":"道琼斯","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMC":"AMC院线","AVGO":"博通","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","CHWY":"Chewy, Inc.","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","AOUT":"American Outdoor Brands, Inc.","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","AI":"C3.ai, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115031273","content_text":"Stock-market index trade higher after inflation report.\nAt 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 176 points, or 0.49%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 30.75 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.\n\nInflation accelerated at its fastest pace since 1982 in November, the Labor Department said Friday, putting pressure on the economic recovery and raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve.\nThe consumer price index, which measures the cost of a wide-ranging basket of goods, rose 0.8% for the month, good for a 6.8% pace on a year over year basis and the fastest rate since June 1982.\nExcluding food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.5% for the month and 4.9% from a year ago, which itself was the sharpest pickup since mid-1991.\nThe Dow Jones estimate was for a 6.7% annual gain for headline CPI and 4.9% for core.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nTesla(TSLA) – Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold another 934,091 shares of the electric vehicle maker worth $963.2 million, U.S. securities filings showed on Thursday.He also exercised stock options to buy 2.17 million shares of Tesla, according to the filings.Musk is \"thinking of\" leaving his jobs and becoming an influencer, the world's richest man tweeted on Thursday.It was not immediately clear if Musk, a prolific user of the social media platform, was being serious about quitting his roles.Tesla shares dropped more than 1% in premarket trading.\nOracle(ORCL) – Oracle shares surged 12% in the premarket, after quarterly sales and revenue beat estimates and the business software company announced a $10 billion increase in its share repurchase program. Oracle earned an adjusted $1.21 per share, 10 cents above estimates, with particular strength for its cloud infrastructure business.\nBroadcom(AVGO) – The chip maker’s shares rallied nearly 7% in premarket trading after it beat Street forecasts on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter. Broadcom earned an adjusted $7.81 per share, 7 cents above estimates, and also issued an upbeat forecast on continued high demand from its cloud computing customers.\nChewy(CHWY) – The online pet products retailer’s stock tumbled 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss. Sales were in line with Street forecasts, but profit was impacted by higher costs for labor and supply chain issues.\nModerna(MRNA) – Moderna shares plunged 10% in premarket trading.Other vaccine stocks also fell.BioNTech fell more than 5%,Novavax fell more than 3%.\nLululemon(LULU) – The athletic apparel maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of $1.62 per share, 21 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above forecasts as well. However, Lululemon also warned that new Covid-19 variants could impact demand for “athleisure” clothing if virus concerns lead to temporary store closures and further supply chain issues. The stock slid 1.3% in premarket action.\nC3Ai(AI) – The artificial intelligence software company’s stock soared 20% in the premarket after it won a $500 million contract from the U.S. Department of Defense for its suite of AI products.\nCostco(COST) – The warehouse retailer earned $2.98 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.64, with revenue topping Street forecasts as well. The beat came despite higher costs and supply chain issues that Costco said it was able to largely mitigate. Costco rose 1.8% in the premarket.\nBeyond Meat(BYND) – Restaurant chain Taco Bell dropped plans to test Beyond Meat’s plant-based version of carne asada,according to a Bloomberg report. Taco Bell is said to have been dissatisfied with samples it received in October, although the companies continue to work together on new products. Beyond Meat slipped 1.6% in premarket trading.\nAmerican Outdoor Brands(AOUT) – The outdoor products maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 58 cents per share, well below the 76 cent consensus estimate, with revenue also falling short of analyst forecasts. The company said sales slowed due to a shift in customer purchase timing into the prior quarter to lessen supply chain concerns. American Outdoor shares plummeted 19% in premarket action.\nVail Resorts(MTN) – The resort operator lost $3.44 per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the loss of $3.62 that analysts had anticipated, thanks to a jump in season pass sales. However, revenue was below estimates.\nPeloton(PTON) – The fitness equipment maker’s shares lost 3.6% in the premarket after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “outperform”. The firm noted a number of headwinds for Peloton, including a return to out-of-home fitness and a shift in consumer spending.\nAMC Entertainment(AMC) – The movie theater operator’s shares slid 1% in premarket trading, after SEC filings showed a sale of 312,500 shares by CEO Adam Aron and a sale of 18,000 shares by CFO Sean Goodman. Aron had indicated in November that he would soon begin selling shares as part of estate planning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"NVAX":0.9,"AI":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"LULU":0.9,"ORCL":0.9,"COST":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"MTN":0.9,"CHWY":0.9,"PTON":0.9,"AVGO":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"BYND":0.9,"AOUT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602957461,"gmtCreate":1638963307173,"gmtModify":1638963307403,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602957461","repostId":"1137698347","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137698347","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1638962446,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137698347?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 19:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Says Nearing 200,000 F-150 Lightning Reservations, Order Bank Opening Soon<blockquote>福特表示接近 20 万辆 F-150 Lightning 预订，订单银行即将开业</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137698347","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Ford Motor Co told Benzinga on Tuesday its hotly-anticipated F-150 Lightning electric truck has secu","content":"<p><b>Ford Motor Co</b>&nbsp;told Benzinga on Tuesday its hotly-anticipated F-150 Lightning electric truck has secured nearly 200,000 bookings and the order bank is expected to open soon.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特汽车</b>周二告诉 Benzinga，其备受期待的 F-150 Lightning 电动卡车已获得近 20 万份预订，订单库预计将很快开放。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>The latest numbers are a significant jump from a month ago, when the Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford said bookings had touched 160,000 units for the electric variant of its best-selling truck.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>最新数字比一个月前大幅跃升，当时总部位于密歇根州迪尔伯恩的福特公司表示，其最畅销卡车电动版的预订量已达到 16 万辆。</blockquote></p><p> The electric version of Ford’s most profitable and popular pickup truck will&nbsp;go on sale in Spring at a ticket price of $39,974 and up&nbsp;for the base model and a range of 230 miles for the standard range.</p><p><blockquote>福特最赚钱、最受欢迎的皮卡的电动版将于春季上市，基本款的票价为 39,974 美元及以上，标准版的续航里程为 230 英里。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re on track for customer deliveries to begin in spring 2022 and order banks will open soon,” a Ford spokesperson said.</p><p><blockquote>“福特发言人说：”我们有望在 2022 年春季开始向客户交付，订单库也将很快开放。</blockquote></p><p> Ford will soon invite reservation holders to place the final orders. Reservations are not final orders but, hypothetically, even half of those $100 fully-refundable bookings could fetch Ford significant volumes for the Lightning.</p><p><blockquote>福特将很快邀请预订者下最终订单。预订不是最终订单，但假设的话，即使是 100 美元可全额退款的预订中的一半也可以为福特 Lightning 带来大量销量。</blockquote></p><p> The fresh reservation numbers indicate customers would likely have to wait much longer than previously anticipated to get the deliveries, given the limited capacity at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>新的预订数字表明，鉴于目前的运力有限，客户可能需要等待比之前预期更长的时间才能收到货物。</blockquote></p><p> Ford had earlier said it would ramp up production for the F-150 Lightning electric truck and build 15,000 F-150s next year after the truck's spring launch, 55,000 in 2023 and eventually reach the 80,000 mark in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>福特此前曾表示，将提高 F-150 Lightning 电动卡车的产量，并在卡车春季上市后明年生产 15,000 辆 F-150，2023 年生产 55,000 辆，最终在 2024 年达到 80,000 辆。</blockquote></p><p> Ford said early indications show over 70% of the latest booing numbers for the electric truck are brand new customers for the automaker.</p><p><blockquote>福特表示，早期迹象显示，该电动卡车最新嘘声中超过 70% 是该汽车制造商的全新客户。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker said California, Texas and Florida are among the top three states for the reservations.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商表示，加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州是预订量最大的三个州之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>Ford is expecting the popularity of its best-selling and the most-profitable full size pickup truck F-150 to trickle down to the electric variant as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>福特预计其最畅销、最赚钱的全尺寸皮卡车 F-150 的受欢迎程度也将蔓延到电动版本。</blockquote></p><p> The F-150 alone contributed over 27% of Ford’s total production numbers of 201,353 units in the month of October, as per the company data.</p><p><blockquote>根据福特公司的数据，仅 F-150 就贡献了福特公司 10 月份 201,353 辆总产量的 27% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford CEO&nbsp;<b>Jim Farley</b>&nbsp;last week said the automaker will double electric vehicle production to 600,000 units by 2023 due to higher demand and said it aims the automaker to become the biggest electric vehicle maker in the world.</p><p><blockquote>福特首席执行官<b>吉姆·法利</b>上周表示，由于需求增加，该汽车制造商将到 2023 年将电动汽车产量增加一倍，达到 60 万辆，并表示其目标是使该汽车制造商成为世界上最大的电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> F-150 Lightning will be Ford’s second fully electric model on sale after Mustang Mach-E.</p><p><blockquote>F-150 Lightning 将是福特继野马 Mach-E 之后在售的第二款全电动车型。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>Ford shares closed 3.85% higher at $19.96 a share on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>福特股价周二收盘上涨 3.85%，至每股 19.96 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Says Nearing 200,000 F-150 Lightning Reservations, Order Bank Opening Soon<blockquote>福特表示接近 20 万辆 F-150 Lightning 预订，订单银行即将开业</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Says Nearing 200,000 F-150 Lightning Reservations, Order Bank Opening Soon<blockquote>福特表示接近 20 万辆 F-150 Lightning 预订，订单银行即将开业</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 19:20</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Ford Motor Co</b>&nbsp;told Benzinga on Tuesday its hotly-anticipated F-150 Lightning electric truck has secured nearly 200,000 bookings and the order bank is expected to open soon.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特汽车</b>周二告诉 Benzinga，其备受期待的 F-150 Lightning 电动卡车已获得近 20 万份预订，订单库预计将很快开放。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>The latest numbers are a significant jump from a month ago, when the Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford said bookings had touched 160,000 units for the electric variant of its best-selling truck.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>最新数字比一个月前大幅跃升，当时总部位于密歇根州迪尔伯恩的福特公司表示，其最畅销卡车电动版的预订量已达到 16 万辆。</blockquote></p><p> The electric version of Ford’s most profitable and popular pickup truck will&nbsp;go on sale in Spring at a ticket price of $39,974 and up&nbsp;for the base model and a range of 230 miles for the standard range.</p><p><blockquote>福特最赚钱、最受欢迎的皮卡的电动版将于春季上市，基本款的票价为 39,974 美元及以上，标准版的续航里程为 230 英里。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re on track for customer deliveries to begin in spring 2022 and order banks will open soon,” a Ford spokesperson said.</p><p><blockquote>“福特发言人说：”我们有望在 2022 年春季开始向客户交付，订单库也将很快开放。</blockquote></p><p> Ford will soon invite reservation holders to place the final orders. Reservations are not final orders but, hypothetically, even half of those $100 fully-refundable bookings could fetch Ford significant volumes for the Lightning.</p><p><blockquote>福特将很快邀请预订者下最终订单。预订不是最终订单，但假设的话，即使是 100 美元可全额退款的预订中的一半也可以为福特 Lightning 带来大量销量。</blockquote></p><p> The fresh reservation numbers indicate customers would likely have to wait much longer than previously anticipated to get the deliveries, given the limited capacity at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>新的预订数字表明，鉴于目前的运力有限，客户可能需要等待比之前预期更长的时间才能收到货物。</blockquote></p><p> Ford had earlier said it would ramp up production for the F-150 Lightning electric truck and build 15,000 F-150s next year after the truck's spring launch, 55,000 in 2023 and eventually reach the 80,000 mark in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>福特此前曾表示，将提高 F-150 Lightning 电动卡车的产量，并在卡车春季上市后明年生产 15,000 辆 F-150，2023 年生产 55,000 辆，最终在 2024 年达到 80,000 辆。</blockquote></p><p> Ford said early indications show over 70% of the latest booing numbers for the electric truck are brand new customers for the automaker.</p><p><blockquote>福特表示，早期迹象显示，该电动卡车最新嘘声中超过 70% 是该汽车制造商的全新客户。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker said California, Texas and Florida are among the top three states for the reservations.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商表示，加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州是预订量最大的三个州之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>Ford is expecting the popularity of its best-selling and the most-profitable full size pickup truck F-150 to trickle down to the electric variant as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>福特预计其最畅销、最赚钱的全尺寸皮卡车 F-150 的受欢迎程度也将蔓延到电动版本。</blockquote></p><p> The F-150 alone contributed over 27% of Ford’s total production numbers of 201,353 units in the month of October, as per the company data.</p><p><blockquote>根据福特公司的数据，仅 F-150 就贡献了福特公司 10 月份 201,353 辆总产量的 27% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford CEO&nbsp;<b>Jim Farley</b>&nbsp;last week said the automaker will double electric vehicle production to 600,000 units by 2023 due to higher demand and said it aims the automaker to become the biggest electric vehicle maker in the world.</p><p><blockquote>福特首席执行官<b>吉姆·法利</b>上周表示，由于需求增加，该汽车制造商将到 2023 年将电动汽车产量增加一倍，达到 60 万辆，并表示其目标是使该汽车制造商成为世界上最大的电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> F-150 Lightning will be Ford’s second fully electric model on sale after Mustang Mach-E.</p><p><blockquote>F-150 Lightning 将是福特继野马 Mach-E 之后在售的第二款全电动车型。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>Ford shares closed 3.85% higher at $19.96 a share on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>福特股价周二收盘上涨 3.85%，至每股 19.96 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137698347","content_text":"Ford Motor Co told Benzinga on Tuesday its hotly-anticipated F-150 Lightning electric truck has secured nearly 200,000 bookings and the order bank is expected to open soon.\nWhat Happened:The latest numbers are a significant jump from a month ago, when the Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford said bookings had touched 160,000 units for the electric variant of its best-selling truck.\nThe electric version of Ford’s most profitable and popular pickup truck will go on sale in Spring at a ticket price of $39,974 and up for the base model and a range of 230 miles for the standard range.\n“We’re on track for customer deliveries to begin in spring 2022 and order banks will open soon,” a Ford spokesperson said.\nFord will soon invite reservation holders to place the final orders. Reservations are not final orders but, hypothetically, even half of those $100 fully-refundable bookings could fetch Ford significant volumes for the Lightning.\nThe fresh reservation numbers indicate customers would likely have to wait much longer than previously anticipated to get the deliveries, given the limited capacity at the moment.\nFord had earlier said it would ramp up production for the F-150 Lightning electric truck and build 15,000 F-150s next year after the truck's spring launch, 55,000 in 2023 and eventually reach the 80,000 mark in 2024.\nFord said early indications show over 70% of the latest booing numbers for the electric truck are brand new customers for the automaker.\nThe automaker said California, Texas and Florida are among the top three states for the reservations.\nWhy It Matters:Ford is expecting the popularity of its best-selling and the most-profitable full size pickup truck F-150 to trickle down to the electric variant as well.\nThe F-150 alone contributed over 27% of Ford’s total production numbers of 201,353 units in the month of October, as per the company data.\nFord CEO Jim Farley last week said the automaker will double electric vehicle production to 600,000 units by 2023 due to higher demand and said it aims the automaker to become the biggest electric vehicle maker in the world.\nF-150 Lightning will be Ford’s second fully electric model on sale after Mustang Mach-E.\nPrice Action:Ford shares closed 3.85% higher at $19.96 a share on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608141982,"gmtCreate":1638670990086,"gmtModify":1638670990192,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608141982","repostId":"2188528084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608141053,"gmtCreate":1638670962404,"gmtModify":1638670962550,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell","listText":"Sell","text":"Sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608141053","repostId":"2188853578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608968626,"gmtCreate":1638597973233,"gmtModify":1638597973342,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608968626","repostId":"1174181873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174181873","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638578178,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1174181873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-04 08:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：数字银行和云基础设施引领 IPO 周 4</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181873","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billi","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，四次IPO计划筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>如控股</b>(NU) 计划以 411 亿美元的市值筹集 25 亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于 2013 年，名为 Nubank，旨在推出免费信用卡产品，提供移动优先的客户体验，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，但随着客户群的增长，每位客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP) 计划以 140 亿美元的市值筹集 11 亿美元。这家由风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可以大规模标准化和自动化云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。虽然 HashiCorp 表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于 S&amp;M 支出，HashiCorp 高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI) 计划以 2.96 亿美元的市值筹集 1.06 亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资第一抵押贷款和由商业房地产担保的替代结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀黄金</b>(AUST) 计划以 6400 万美元的市值筹集 1500 万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前在内华达州的四处矿产中拥有权益，目前只有一处矿产被认为是重要的。奥斯汀黄金公司迄今为止尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：数字银行和云基础设施引领 IPO 周 4</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：数字银行和云基础设施引领 IPO 周 4</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-04 08:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，四次IPO计划筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>如控股</b>(NU) 计划以 411 亿美元的市值筹集 25 亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于 2013 年，名为 Nubank，旨在推出免费信用卡产品，提供移动优先的客户体验，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，但随着客户群的增长，每位客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP) 计划以 140 亿美元的市值筹集 11 亿美元。这家由风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可以大规模标准化和自动化云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。虽然 HashiCorp 表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于 S&amp;M 支出，HashiCorp 高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI) 计划以 2.96 亿美元的市值筹集 1.06 亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资第一抵押贷款和由商业房地产担保的替代结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀黄金</b>(AUST) 计划以 6400 万美元的市值筹集 1500 万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前在内华达州的四处矿产中拥有权益，目前只有一处矿产被认为是重要的。奥斯汀黄金公司迄今为止尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.","NU":"Nu Holdings Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181873","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.\nBuffett-backed Nu Holdings(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.\nCloud infrastructure platform HashiCorp(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&M spend.\nCannabis finance REIT Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.\nCanadian gold exploration company Austin Gold(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"REFI":0.9,"HCP":0.9,"NU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601244720,"gmtCreate":1638539737877,"gmtModify":1638539738012,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No dip","listText":"No dip","text":"No dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601244720","repostId":"1175699025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175699025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638535445,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175699025?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia’s Purchase of Arm Is (Likely) Dead. What Comes Next?<blockquote>Nvidia 对 Arm 的收购（很可能）已经夭折。接下来是什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175699025","media":"Barrons","summary":"Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconducto","content":"<p>Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconductor industry—looks dead in the water.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达以 400 亿美元收购 Arm——被誉为半导体行业历史上最大的一笔交易——看起来像是死在了水里。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal Thursday, citing competition concerns and all but killing the prospect of Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) taking over control of the leading chip designer from&nbsp;SoftBank&nbsp;(SFTBY). And while Nvidia has vowed to press ahead, the transaction faces further scrutiny in Europe and China.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦贸易委员会周四提起诉讼，以竞争担忧和几乎扼杀了英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）从软银（SFTBY）手中接管领先芯片设计商控制权的前景为由，阻止了这笔交易。尽管英伟达发誓要继续前进，但该交易在欧洲和中国面临着进一步的审查。</blockquote></p><p> So what comes next?</p><p><blockquote>那么接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Following news of the FTC’s hammer-blow, analysts at Citibank slashed the probability of the deal going through to 5% from 30%. The chances used to be slim. Now they’re very slim.</p><p><blockquote>在联邦贸易委员会敲响警钟的消息传出后，花旗银行的分析师将交易通过的概率从 30% 下调至 5%。机会过去很小。现在它们非常苗条。</blockquote></p><p> “Nobody thinks this is going to close,” Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein Research, told MarketWatch Thursday. “The stock didn’t even bobble when the news came out.”</p><p><blockquote>“伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）分析师斯泰西-拉斯贡（Stacy Rasgon）周四告诉《市场观察》（MarketWatch）。“消息传出时，股票甚至没有波动。”</blockquote></p><p> That underscores the fact that analysts have been pessimistic about this for a while.</p><p><blockquote>这凸显了分析师对此悲观一段时间的事实。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson outlined how the broker and investment bank continued to believe the proposed coupling wouldn’t be approved. He cited not just regulatory pressure in the U.S., but also China.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Wedbush 分析师马特-布赖森（Matt Bryson）概述了这家经纪商和投资银行如何继续认为拟议的耦合不会获得批准。他不仅提到了美国的监管压力，还提到了中国的监管压力。</blockquote></p><p> “Any concerns about the Arm acquisition closing seem to be having little impact on the stock,” Bryson said at the time. “A lack of an Arm acquisition might have little impact on Nvidia’s momentum.”</p><p><blockquote>“布赖森当时表示：”对 Arm 收购案完成的任何担忧似乎对该股影响不大。“未能收购 Arm 可能对 Nvidia 的发展势头影响不大。”</blockquote></p><p> Remember: the metaverse, and the potentially lucrative future in virtual worlds that Nvidia is helping create, wasn’t a consideration for investors when the Arm deal was announced.</p><p><blockquote>请记住：在宣布 Arm 交易时，投资者并没有考虑元宇宙和英伟达正在帮助创造的虚拟世界中潜在的利润丰厚的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, Nvidia’s stock has climbed a staggering 165%, from around $120 a share to $320, on the back of a wave of growth optimism covering data centers and cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and, of course, the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，在数据中心和云计算、人工智能，当然还有元宇宙等领域的增长乐观情绪浪潮的推动下，英伟达的股价惊人攀升了 165%，从每股 120 美元左右涨至 320 美元。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s not over ‘til it’s over. The deal is still alive, barely, for now.</p><p><blockquote>但一切都还没有结束。这笔交易目前还几乎没有生效。</blockquote></p><p> The thrust of the concerns from the FTC and other regulators is that Arm’s neutrality in the chip industry would be compromised under Nvidia’s ownership. Arm licenses intellectual property to the likes of&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Amazon&nbsp;(AMZN),Qualcomm&nbsp;(QCOM) and others.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦贸易委员会和其他监管机构的担忧要点是，在英伟达的收购下，Arm 在芯片行业的中立性将受到损害。Arm 将知识产权授权给苹果 (AAPL)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、高通 (QCOM) 等公司。</blockquote></p><p> If Nvidia owns Arm, the competition concerns go, then it would have access to competitively sensitive information about Arm’s clients, and Arm would be unlikely to pursue innovations that challenge Nvidia’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>如果英伟达拥有 Arm，竞争问题就会消失，那么它就能获得有关 Arm 客户的敏感竞争信息，而 Arm 也不太可能追求挑战英伟达利益的创新。</blockquote></p><p> Can these concerns really be addressed?</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧真的能解决吗？</blockquote></p><p> “We view a potential path forward if Nvidia can present remedies that, among other options, might include creating a ‘Chinese Wall’ between the research and development engine and Arm business contracts in order to ease the regulatory antitrust concerns,” Citibank analysts Atif Malik and Amanda Scarnati said.</p><p><blockquote>“花旗银行分析师阿提夫-马利克（Atif Malik）和阿曼达-斯卡纳蒂（Amanda Scarnati）说：”如果英伟达能够提出补救措施，我们认为这是一条潜在的前进道路，其中可能包括在研发引擎和 Arm 业务合同之间建立一道'中国墙'，以缓解监管机构的反垄断担忧。</blockquote></p><p> A dead deal is likely to hurt SoftBank the most. While the Japanese technology investor would get to keep the $2 billion Nvidia paid up front, which includes a $1.25 billion breakup fee, the $40 billion ticket price actually represented a whole lot more.</p><p><blockquote>一笔失败的交易可能对软银造成最大的伤害。虽然这位日本科技投资者可以保留英伟达预付的 20 亿美元，其中包括 12.5 亿美元的分手费，但 400 亿美元的票价实际上代表着更多。</blockquote></p><p> That $40 billion figure included what, at the time, was 44.3 million Nvidia shares valued at some $21.5 billion. Since then, Nvidia’s stock has torn higher, making the stock part of a cash-and-stock deal a lot more lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>这个 400 亿美元的数字包括当时价值约 215 亿美元的 4430 万股英伟达股票。从那时起，英伟达的股价一路走高，使得现金换股票交易的一部分股票利润更高。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia stock was 0.8% lower in premarket trading Friday, slightly outpacing declines in Nasdaq 100 futures.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，英伟达股价下跌 0.8%，略高于纳斯达克 100 指数期货的跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia’s Purchase of Arm Is (Likely) Dead. What Comes Next?<blockquote>Nvidia 对 Arm 的收购（很可能）已经夭折。接下来是什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia’s Purchase of Arm Is (Likely) Dead. What Comes Next?<blockquote>Nvidia 对 Arm 的收购（很可能）已经夭折。接下来是什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 20:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconductor industry—looks dead in the water.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达以 400 亿美元收购 Arm——被誉为半导体行业历史上最大的一笔交易——看起来像是死在了水里。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal Thursday, citing competition concerns and all but killing the prospect of Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) taking over control of the leading chip designer from&nbsp;SoftBank&nbsp;(SFTBY). And while Nvidia has vowed to press ahead, the transaction faces further scrutiny in Europe and China.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦贸易委员会周四提起诉讼，以竞争担忧和几乎扼杀了英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）从软银（SFTBY）手中接管领先芯片设计商控制权的前景为由，阻止了这笔交易。尽管英伟达发誓要继续前进，但该交易在欧洲和中国面临着进一步的审查。</blockquote></p><p> So what comes next?</p><p><blockquote>那么接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Following news of the FTC’s hammer-blow, analysts at Citibank slashed the probability of the deal going through to 5% from 30%. The chances used to be slim. Now they’re very slim.</p><p><blockquote>在联邦贸易委员会敲响警钟的消息传出后，花旗银行的分析师将交易通过的概率从 30% 下调至 5%。机会过去很小。现在它们非常苗条。</blockquote></p><p> “Nobody thinks this is going to close,” Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein Research, told MarketWatch Thursday. “The stock didn’t even bobble when the news came out.”</p><p><blockquote>“伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）分析师斯泰西-拉斯贡（Stacy Rasgon）周四告诉《市场观察》（MarketWatch）。“消息传出时，股票甚至没有波动。”</blockquote></p><p> That underscores the fact that analysts have been pessimistic about this for a while.</p><p><blockquote>这凸显了分析师对此悲观一段时间的事实。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson outlined how the broker and investment bank continued to believe the proposed coupling wouldn’t be approved. He cited not just regulatory pressure in the U.S., but also China.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Wedbush 分析师马特-布赖森（Matt Bryson）概述了这家经纪商和投资银行如何继续认为拟议的耦合不会获得批准。他不仅提到了美国的监管压力，还提到了中国的监管压力。</blockquote></p><p> “Any concerns about the Arm acquisition closing seem to be having little impact on the stock,” Bryson said at the time. “A lack of an Arm acquisition might have little impact on Nvidia’s momentum.”</p><p><blockquote>“布赖森当时表示：”对 Arm 收购案完成的任何担忧似乎对该股影响不大。“未能收购 Arm 可能对 Nvidia 的发展势头影响不大。”</blockquote></p><p> Remember: the metaverse, and the potentially lucrative future in virtual worlds that Nvidia is helping create, wasn’t a consideration for investors when the Arm deal was announced.</p><p><blockquote>请记住：在宣布 Arm 交易时，投资者并没有考虑元宇宙和英伟达正在帮助创造的虚拟世界中潜在的利润丰厚的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, Nvidia’s stock has climbed a staggering 165%, from around $120 a share to $320, on the back of a wave of growth optimism covering data centers and cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and, of course, the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，在数据中心和云计算、人工智能，当然还有元宇宙等领域的增长乐观情绪浪潮的推动下，英伟达的股价惊人攀升了 165%，从每股 120 美元左右涨至 320 美元。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s not over ‘til it’s over. The deal is still alive, barely, for now.</p><p><blockquote>但一切都还没有结束。这笔交易目前还几乎没有生效。</blockquote></p><p> The thrust of the concerns from the FTC and other regulators is that Arm’s neutrality in the chip industry would be compromised under Nvidia’s ownership. Arm licenses intellectual property to the likes of&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Amazon&nbsp;(AMZN),Qualcomm&nbsp;(QCOM) and others.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦贸易委员会和其他监管机构的担忧要点是，在英伟达的收购下，Arm 在芯片行业的中立性将受到损害。Arm 将知识产权授权给苹果 (AAPL)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、高通 (QCOM) 等公司。</blockquote></p><p> If Nvidia owns Arm, the competition concerns go, then it would have access to competitively sensitive information about Arm’s clients, and Arm would be unlikely to pursue innovations that challenge Nvidia’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>如果英伟达拥有 Arm，竞争问题就会消失，那么它就能获得有关 Arm 客户的敏感竞争信息，而 Arm 也不太可能追求挑战英伟达利益的创新。</blockquote></p><p> Can these concerns really be addressed?</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧真的能解决吗？</blockquote></p><p> “We view a potential path forward if Nvidia can present remedies that, among other options, might include creating a ‘Chinese Wall’ between the research and development engine and Arm business contracts in order to ease the regulatory antitrust concerns,” Citibank analysts Atif Malik and Amanda Scarnati said.</p><p><blockquote>“花旗银行分析师阿提夫-马利克（Atif Malik）和阿曼达-斯卡纳蒂（Amanda Scarnati）说：”如果英伟达能够提出补救措施，我们认为这是一条潜在的前进道路，其中可能包括在研发引擎和 Arm 业务合同之间建立一道'中国墙'，以缓解监管机构的反垄断担忧。</blockquote></p><p> A dead deal is likely to hurt SoftBank the most. While the Japanese technology investor would get to keep the $2 billion Nvidia paid up front, which includes a $1.25 billion breakup fee, the $40 billion ticket price actually represented a whole lot more.</p><p><blockquote>一笔失败的交易可能对软银造成最大的伤害。虽然这位日本科技投资者可以保留英伟达预付的 20 亿美元，其中包括 12.5 亿美元的分手费，但 400 亿美元的票价实际上代表着更多。</blockquote></p><p> That $40 billion figure included what, at the time, was 44.3 million Nvidia shares valued at some $21.5 billion. Since then, Nvidia’s stock has torn higher, making the stock part of a cash-and-stock deal a lot more lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>这个 400 亿美元的数字包括当时价值约 215 亿美元的 4430 万股英伟达股票。从那时起，英伟达的股价一路走高，使得现金换股票交易的一部分股票利润更高。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia stock was 0.8% lower in premarket trading Friday, slightly outpacing declines in Nasdaq 100 futures.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，英伟达股价下跌 0.8%，略高于纳斯达克 100 指数期货的跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-nvda-arm-acquisition-ftc-51638533956?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-nvda-arm-acquisition-ftc-51638533956?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175699025","content_text":"Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconductor industry—looks dead in the water.\nThe Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal Thursday, citing competition concerns and all but killing the prospect of Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) taking over control of the leading chip designer from SoftBank (SFTBY). And while Nvidia has vowed to press ahead, the transaction faces further scrutiny in Europe and China.\nSo what comes next?\nFollowing news of the FTC’s hammer-blow, analysts at Citibank slashed the probability of the deal going through to 5% from 30%. The chances used to be slim. Now they’re very slim.\n“Nobody thinks this is going to close,” Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein Research, told MarketWatch Thursday. “The stock didn’t even bobble when the news came out.”\nThat underscores the fact that analysts have been pessimistic about this for a while.\nLast month, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson outlined how the broker and investment bank continued to believe the proposed coupling wouldn’t be approved. He cited not just regulatory pressure in the U.S., but also China.\n“Any concerns about the Arm acquisition closing seem to be having little impact on the stock,” Bryson said at the time. “A lack of an Arm acquisition might have little impact on Nvidia’s momentum.”\nRemember: the metaverse, and the potentially lucrative future in virtual worlds that Nvidia is helping create, wasn’t a consideration for investors when the Arm deal was announced.\nSince then, Nvidia’s stock has climbed a staggering 165%, from around $120 a share to $320, on the back of a wave of growth optimism covering data centers and cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and, of course, the metaverse.\nBut it’s not over ‘til it’s over. The deal is still alive, barely, for now.\nThe thrust of the concerns from the FTC and other regulators is that Arm’s neutrality in the chip industry would be compromised under Nvidia’s ownership. Arm licenses intellectual property to the likes of Apple (AAPL),Amazon (AMZN),Qualcomm (QCOM) and others.\nIf Nvidia owns Arm, the competition concerns go, then it would have access to competitively sensitive information about Arm’s clients, and Arm would be unlikely to pursue innovations that challenge Nvidia’s interests.\nCan these concerns really be addressed?\n“We view a potential path forward if Nvidia can present remedies that, among other options, might include creating a ‘Chinese Wall’ between the research and development engine and Arm business contracts in order to ease the regulatory antitrust concerns,” Citibank analysts Atif Malik and Amanda Scarnati said.\nA dead deal is likely to hurt SoftBank the most. While the Japanese technology investor would get to keep the $2 billion Nvidia paid up front, which includes a $1.25 billion breakup fee, the $40 billion ticket price actually represented a whole lot more.\nThat $40 billion figure included what, at the time, was 44.3 million Nvidia shares valued at some $21.5 billion. Since then, Nvidia’s stock has torn higher, making the stock part of a cash-and-stock deal a lot more lucrative.\nNvidia stock was 0.8% lower in premarket trading Friday, slightly outpacing declines in Nasdaq 100 futures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603742137,"gmtCreate":1638456326246,"gmtModify":1638456326353,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Grab money","listText":"Grab money","text":"Grab money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603742137","repostId":"1122539371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122539371","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638455400,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122539371?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-02 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Singapore ride-hailing firm Grab spikes 18% on its first day of trading<blockquote>新加坡打车公司 Grab 上市首日股价飙升 18%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122539371","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Singapore ride-hailing firm Grab spikes 18% on its first day of trading.\n\nGrab, Southeast Asia's big","content":"<p>Singapore ride-hailing firm Grab spikes 18% on its first day of trading.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡打车公司 Grab 首日交易股价飙升 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b479a07f5b168e94fcce83e7ef2cc5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab</a>, Southeast Asia's biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm,lists&nbsp;on Nasdaq on Thursday following its $40 billion merger with special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">Altimeter Growth Corp</a>.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">抓住</a>东南亚最大的打车和食品配送公司周四在纳斯达克上市，此前该公司斥资 400 亿美元与特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC) 合并<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">高度计增长公司</a>.</blockquote></p><p> The deal is the world's biggest ever by a blank-check company and the biggest U.S. listing by a Southeast Asian firm.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易是有史以来全球最大的空白支票公司交易，也是东南亚公司在美国最大的上市交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHAT IS GRAB?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是抓取？</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2012, Grab is Southeast Asia's largest startup, valued at just over $16 billion last year. It launched as a Malaysian taxi-hailing service and now calls itself a \"superapp\" after expanding into food, grocery and parcel delivery and to digital payments, lending and other financial services.</p><p><blockquote>Grab成立于2012年，是东南亚最大的初创公司，去年估值略高于160亿美元。它最初是作为马来西亚出租车叫车服务推出的，现在评级本身在扩展到食品、杂货和包裹递送以及数字支付、贷款和其他金融服务后，已经成为一个“超级应用程序”。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore-headquartered Grab operates across 465 cities in eight countries in the region, counting Indonesia as its biggest. Its venture with Singapore Telecommunications Ltd(STEL.SI)was awarded a digital bank license in Singapore last year.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新加坡的 Grab 在该地区八个国家的 465 个城市开展业务，其中印度尼西亚是最大的城市。其与新加坡电信有限公司（STEL.SI）的合资企业去年在新加坡获得了数字银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> Grab gained the global spotlight in 2018 when it bought the Southeast Asian business of Uber Technologies Inc(UBER.N)in return for the U.S. ride-hailing company taking a stake in Grab.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年，Grab 收购了 Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER.N) 的东南亚业务，以换取这家美国网约车公司入股 Grab，从而引起了全球关注。</blockquote></p><p> With some 8,000 employees, Grab has tech centres in Singapore, Beijing, Seattle, Bengaluru and other places.</p><p><blockquote>Grab拥有约8000名员工，在新加坡、北京、西雅图、班加罗尔等地设有技术中心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHO'S BACKING GRAB?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁在支持GRAB？</b></blockquote></p><p> Early investors include Japan's SoftBank, China's Didi Chuxing and venture capital firms Vertex Ventures Holdings and GGV Capital.</p><p><blockquote>早期投资者包括日本软银、中国滴滴出行以及风险投资公司Vertex Ventures Holdings和GGV Capital。</blockquote></p><p> Grab raised about $12 billion ahead of the listing. Investors range from venture and hedge funds to automobile companies and other ride-hailing firms, and include:</p><p><blockquote>Grab 在上市前筹集了约 120 亿美元。投资者范围从风险投资和对冲基金到汽车公司和其他网约车公司，包括：</blockquote></p><p> Uber, Booking Holdings Inc, China Investment Corp, Coatue Management, Hillhouse Capital, Hyundai Motor Co, Invesco Ltd, Microsoft Corp, Ping An Capital Co, Toyota Motor Corp, and Yamaha Motor Co..</p><p><blockquote>优步、Booking Holdings Inc.、中投公司、Coatue Management、高瓴资本、现代汽车公司、景顺有限公司、微软公司、平安资本公司、丰田汽车公司和雅马哈汽车公司..</blockquote></p><p> In the SPAC deal, about three dozen investors came on board including Temasek Holdings, BlackRock, Fidelity International, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala and Malaysia's Permodalan Nasional Bhd and Altimeter Capital.</p><p><blockquote>在 SPAC 交易中，约有 36 名投资者加入，包括淡马锡控股、贝莱德、富达国际、阿布扎比的 Mubadala 以及马来西亚的 Permodalan Nasional Bhd 和 Altimeter Capital。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHO'S THE COMPETITION?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁是竞争对手？</b></blockquote></p><p> GoTo Group, formed by the merger of Indonesian ride-hailing and deliveries firm Gojek and local e-commerce leader Tokopedia is Grab's biggest competitor.</p><p><blockquote>GoTo Group由印度尼西亚打车和送货公司Gojek和当地电子商务领导者Tokopedia合并而成，是Grab最大的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore-based Sea Ltd, which has e-commerce, gaming and a digital payments business, and is also muscling into food delivery and financial services in Indonesia. Sea has also won a digital bank license in Singapore.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新加坡的Sea Ltd拥有电子商务、游戏和数字支付业务，还在印度尼西亚进军食品配送和金融服务领域。Sea还赢得了新加坡的数字银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> Grab is likely to increasingly start competing with banks as it expands its financial services.</p><p><blockquote>随着 Grab 扩大其金融服务，它可能会越来越多地开始与银行竞争。</blockquote></p><p> It also competes with such delivery companies as Foodpanda and Deliveroo PLC.</p><p><blockquote>它还与Foodpanda和户户送等外卖公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHAT ARE GRAB'S FINANCIALS?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GRAB 的财务状况如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> Grab's third-quarter revenue fell 9% from a year earlier to $157 million. Its adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) widened 66% to $212 million. Gross merchandise value hit a quarterly record of $4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 第三季度收入同比下降 9%，至 1.57 亿美元。其息税折旧摊销前调整后亏损 (EBITDA) 扩大 66% 至 2.12 亿美元。商品总价值创下40亿美元的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The delivery business has emerged as the biggest segment as more consumers shifted to online food delivery during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情期间越来越多的消费者转向在线食品配送，配送业务已成为最大的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> Grab forecasts it will turn profitable on an EBITDA basis in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 预计 2023 年 EBITDA 将实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHO ARE ITS KEY EXECUTIVES?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它的主要高管是谁？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anthony Tan, 39, is the company's CEO and co-founder.</p><p><blockquote>39 岁的 Anthony Tan 是该公司的首席执行官兼联合创始人。</blockquote></p><p> Fellow co-founder Tan Hooi Ling, 38, runs Grab's operations, including corporate strategy and technology.</p><p><blockquote>38 岁的联合创始人 Tan Hooi Ling 负责管理 Grab 的运营，包括企业战略和技术。</blockquote></p><p> Both Tans, unrelated, met at Harvard Business School, where they conceived the idea of the ride-hailing company.</p><p><blockquote>两位没有血缘关系的谭氏在哈佛商学院相识，在那里他们构思了打车公司的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Grab's president, Ming Maa, is a prominent dealmaker from SoftBank, who joined the company in 2016.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 总裁 Ming Maa 是软银的著名交易撮合者，于 2016 年加入该公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are some milestones for the Singapore-headquartered company:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是这家总部位于新加坡的公司的一些里程碑：</b></blockquote></p><p> 2011: Anthony Tan and co-founder Tan Hooi Ling create Grab in a Harvard Business School venture competition plan</p><p><blockquote>2011 年：Anthony Tan 和联合创始人 Tan Hooi Ling 在哈佛商学院创业竞赛计划中创建 Grab</blockquote></p><p> 2012: Launches as MyTeksi taxi booking service in Malaysia</p><p><blockquote>2012年：在马来西亚推出MyTeksi出租车预订服务</blockquote></p><p> 2013: Expands to the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore as GrabTaxi</p><p><blockquote>2013年：作为GrabTaxi扩展到菲律宾、泰国和新加坡</blockquote></p><p> April 2014: Announces Series A funding</p><p><blockquote>2014 年 4 月：宣布 A 轮融资</blockquote></p><p> June 2014: Launches in Indonesia</p><p><blockquote>2014年6月：在印度尼西亚推出</blockquote></p><p> December 2014: Japan's SoftBank&nbsp;invests $250 million in a funding round</p><p><blockquote>2014 年 12 月：日本软银在一轮融资中投资 2.5 亿美元</blockquote></p><p> August 2015: Becomes a unicorn after $350 million funding round</p><p><blockquote>2015年8月：3.5亿美元融资后成为独角兽</blockquote></p><p> December 2015: Announces a strategic partnership with other ride-hailing companies Ola, Didi, and Lyft that competed against Uber</p><p><blockquote>2015年12月：宣布与其他网约车公司Ola、滴滴和Lyft建立战略合作伙伴关系，与Uber展开竞争</blockquote></p><p> January 2016: Rebrands to Grab from GrabTaxi to reflect expanding services</p><p><blockquote>2016 年 1 月：GrabTaxi 更名 Grab，以反映服务的扩展</blockquote></p><p> November 2017: Launches GrabPay payments service for third-party transactions</p><p><blockquote>2017年11月：推出第三方交易GrabPay支付服务</blockquote></p><p> March 2018: Announces acquisition of Uber's business in Southeast Asia through an all-share deal, Uber becomes a strategic shareholder</p><p><blockquote>2018年3月：宣布通过全股权交易收购Uber东南亚业务，Uber成为战略股东</blockquote></p><p> May 2018: Pilots GrabFood delivery service</p><p><blockquote>2018 年 5 月：试点 GrabFood 配送服务</blockquote></p><p> July 2018: Unveils \"superapp\" strategy that provides a range of services under one platform</p><p><blockquote>2018年7月：推出“超级应用”策略，在一个平台下提供一系列服务</blockquote></p><p> March 2019: Reaches valuation of about $14 billion</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月：估值达到约140亿美元</blockquote></p><p></p><p> December 2020: Wins digital full bank license in Singapore in a partnership with Singapore Telecommunications Ltd</p><p><blockquote>2020年12月：与Singapore Telecommunications Ltd合作，赢得新加坡数字全银行牌照</blockquote></p><p> April 2021: Agrees to list on Nasdaq through a merger with special-purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp&nbsp;securing a valuation of nearly $40 billion</p><p><blockquote>2021年4月：同意通过与特殊目的收购公司Altimeter Growth Corp合并在纳斯达克上市，估值近400亿美元</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore ride-hailing firm Grab spikes 18% on its first day of trading<blockquote>新加坡打车公司 Grab 上市首日股价飙升 18%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-02 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Singapore ride-hailing firm Grab spikes 18% on its first day of trading.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡打车公司 Grab 首日交易股价飙升 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b479a07f5b168e94fcce83e7ef2cc5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab</a>, Southeast Asia's biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm,lists&nbsp;on Nasdaq on Thursday following its $40 billion merger with special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">Altimeter Growth Corp</a>.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">抓住</a>东南亚最大的打车和食品配送公司周四在纳斯达克上市，此前该公司斥资 400 亿美元与特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC) 合并<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">高度计增长公司</a>.</blockquote></p><p> The deal is the world's biggest ever by a blank-check company and the biggest U.S. listing by a Southeast Asian firm.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易是有史以来全球最大的空白支票公司交易，也是东南亚公司在美国最大的上市交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHAT IS GRAB?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是抓取？</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2012, Grab is Southeast Asia's largest startup, valued at just over $16 billion last year. It launched as a Malaysian taxi-hailing service and now calls itself a \"superapp\" after expanding into food, grocery and parcel delivery and to digital payments, lending and other financial services.</p><p><blockquote>Grab成立于2012年，是东南亚最大的初创公司，去年估值略高于160亿美元。它最初是作为马来西亚出租车叫车服务推出的，现在评级本身在扩展到食品、杂货和包裹递送以及数字支付、贷款和其他金融服务后，已经成为一个“超级应用程序”。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore-headquartered Grab operates across 465 cities in eight countries in the region, counting Indonesia as its biggest. Its venture with Singapore Telecommunications Ltd(STEL.SI)was awarded a digital bank license in Singapore last year.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新加坡的 Grab 在该地区八个国家的 465 个城市开展业务，其中印度尼西亚是最大的城市。其与新加坡电信有限公司（STEL.SI）的合资企业去年在新加坡获得了数字银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> Grab gained the global spotlight in 2018 when it bought the Southeast Asian business of Uber Technologies Inc(UBER.N)in return for the U.S. ride-hailing company taking a stake in Grab.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年，Grab 收购了 Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER.N) 的东南亚业务，以换取这家美国网约车公司入股 Grab，从而引起了全球关注。</blockquote></p><p> With some 8,000 employees, Grab has tech centres in Singapore, Beijing, Seattle, Bengaluru and other places.</p><p><blockquote>Grab拥有约8000名员工，在新加坡、北京、西雅图、班加罗尔等地设有技术中心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHO'S BACKING GRAB?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁在支持GRAB？</b></blockquote></p><p> Early investors include Japan's SoftBank, China's Didi Chuxing and venture capital firms Vertex Ventures Holdings and GGV Capital.</p><p><blockquote>早期投资者包括日本软银、中国滴滴出行以及风险投资公司Vertex Ventures Holdings和GGV Capital。</blockquote></p><p> Grab raised about $12 billion ahead of the listing. Investors range from venture and hedge funds to automobile companies and other ride-hailing firms, and include:</p><p><blockquote>Grab 在上市前筹集了约 120 亿美元。投资者范围从风险投资和对冲基金到汽车公司和其他网约车公司，包括：</blockquote></p><p> Uber, Booking Holdings Inc, China Investment Corp, Coatue Management, Hillhouse Capital, Hyundai Motor Co, Invesco Ltd, Microsoft Corp, Ping An Capital Co, Toyota Motor Corp, and Yamaha Motor Co..</p><p><blockquote>优步、Booking Holdings Inc.、中投公司、Coatue Management、高瓴资本、现代汽车公司、景顺有限公司、微软公司、平安资本公司、丰田汽车公司和雅马哈汽车公司..</blockquote></p><p> In the SPAC deal, about three dozen investors came on board including Temasek Holdings, BlackRock, Fidelity International, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala and Malaysia's Permodalan Nasional Bhd and Altimeter Capital.</p><p><blockquote>在 SPAC 交易中，约有 36 名投资者加入，包括淡马锡控股、贝莱德、富达国际、阿布扎比的 Mubadala 以及马来西亚的 Permodalan Nasional Bhd 和 Altimeter Capital。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHO'S THE COMPETITION?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁是竞争对手？</b></blockquote></p><p> GoTo Group, formed by the merger of Indonesian ride-hailing and deliveries firm Gojek and local e-commerce leader Tokopedia is Grab's biggest competitor.</p><p><blockquote>GoTo Group由印度尼西亚打车和送货公司Gojek和当地电子商务领导者Tokopedia合并而成，是Grab最大的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore-based Sea Ltd, which has e-commerce, gaming and a digital payments business, and is also muscling into food delivery and financial services in Indonesia. Sea has also won a digital bank license in Singapore.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新加坡的Sea Ltd拥有电子商务、游戏和数字支付业务，还在印度尼西亚进军食品配送和金融服务领域。Sea还赢得了新加坡的数字银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> Grab is likely to increasingly start competing with banks as it expands its financial services.</p><p><blockquote>随着 Grab 扩大其金融服务，它可能会越来越多地开始与银行竞争。</blockquote></p><p> It also competes with such delivery companies as Foodpanda and Deliveroo PLC.</p><p><blockquote>它还与Foodpanda和户户送等外卖公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHAT ARE GRAB'S FINANCIALS?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GRAB 的财务状况如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> Grab's third-quarter revenue fell 9% from a year earlier to $157 million. Its adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) widened 66% to $212 million. Gross merchandise value hit a quarterly record of $4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 第三季度收入同比下降 9%，至 1.57 亿美元。其息税折旧摊销前调整后亏损 (EBITDA) 扩大 66% 至 2.12 亿美元。商品总价值创下40亿美元的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The delivery business has emerged as the biggest segment as more consumers shifted to online food delivery during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情期间越来越多的消费者转向在线食品配送，配送业务已成为最大的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> Grab forecasts it will turn profitable on an EBITDA basis in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 预计 2023 年 EBITDA 将实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WHO ARE ITS KEY EXECUTIVES?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它的主要高管是谁？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anthony Tan, 39, is the company's CEO and co-founder.</p><p><blockquote>39 岁的 Anthony Tan 是该公司的首席执行官兼联合创始人。</blockquote></p><p> Fellow co-founder Tan Hooi Ling, 38, runs Grab's operations, including corporate strategy and technology.</p><p><blockquote>38 岁的联合创始人 Tan Hooi Ling 负责管理 Grab 的运营，包括企业战略和技术。</blockquote></p><p> Both Tans, unrelated, met at Harvard Business School, where they conceived the idea of the ride-hailing company.</p><p><blockquote>两位没有血缘关系的谭氏在哈佛商学院相识，在那里他们构思了打车公司的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Grab's president, Ming Maa, is a prominent dealmaker from SoftBank, who joined the company in 2016.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 总裁 Ming Maa 是软银的著名交易撮合者，于 2016 年加入该公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are some milestones for the Singapore-headquartered company:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是这家总部位于新加坡的公司的一些里程碑：</b></blockquote></p><p> 2011: Anthony Tan and co-founder Tan Hooi Ling create Grab in a Harvard Business School venture competition plan</p><p><blockquote>2011 年：Anthony Tan 和联合创始人 Tan Hooi Ling 在哈佛商学院创业竞赛计划中创建 Grab</blockquote></p><p> 2012: Launches as MyTeksi taxi booking service in Malaysia</p><p><blockquote>2012年：在马来西亚推出MyTeksi出租车预订服务</blockquote></p><p> 2013: Expands to the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore as GrabTaxi</p><p><blockquote>2013年：作为GrabTaxi扩展到菲律宾、泰国和新加坡</blockquote></p><p> April 2014: Announces Series A funding</p><p><blockquote>2014 年 4 月：宣布 A 轮融资</blockquote></p><p> June 2014: Launches in Indonesia</p><p><blockquote>2014年6月：在印度尼西亚推出</blockquote></p><p> December 2014: Japan's SoftBank&nbsp;invests $250 million in a funding round</p><p><blockquote>2014 年 12 月：日本软银在一轮融资中投资 2.5 亿美元</blockquote></p><p> August 2015: Becomes a unicorn after $350 million funding round</p><p><blockquote>2015年8月：3.5亿美元融资后成为独角兽</blockquote></p><p> December 2015: Announces a strategic partnership with other ride-hailing companies Ola, Didi, and Lyft that competed against Uber</p><p><blockquote>2015年12月：宣布与其他网约车公司Ola、滴滴和Lyft建立战略合作伙伴关系，与Uber展开竞争</blockquote></p><p> January 2016: Rebrands to Grab from GrabTaxi to reflect expanding services</p><p><blockquote>2016 年 1 月：GrabTaxi 更名 Grab，以反映服务的扩展</blockquote></p><p> November 2017: Launches GrabPay payments service for third-party transactions</p><p><blockquote>2017年11月：推出第三方交易GrabPay支付服务</blockquote></p><p> March 2018: Announces acquisition of Uber's business in Southeast Asia through an all-share deal, Uber becomes a strategic shareholder</p><p><blockquote>2018年3月：宣布通过全股权交易收购Uber东南亚业务，Uber成为战略股东</blockquote></p><p> May 2018: Pilots GrabFood delivery service</p><p><blockquote>2018 年 5 月：试点 GrabFood 配送服务</blockquote></p><p> July 2018: Unveils \"superapp\" strategy that provides a range of services under one platform</p><p><blockquote>2018年7月：推出“超级应用”策略，在一个平台下提供一系列服务</blockquote></p><p> March 2019: Reaches valuation of about $14 billion</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月：估值达到约140亿美元</blockquote></p><p></p><p> December 2020: Wins digital full bank license in Singapore in a partnership with Singapore Telecommunications Ltd</p><p><blockquote>2020年12月：与Singapore Telecommunications Ltd合作，赢得新加坡数字全银行牌照</blockquote></p><p> April 2021: Agrees to list on Nasdaq through a merger with special-purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp&nbsp;securing a valuation of nearly $40 billion</p><p><blockquote>2021年4月：同意通过与特殊目的收购公司Altimeter Growth Corp合并在纳斯达克上市，估值近400亿美元</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122539371","content_text":"Singapore ride-hailing firm Grab spikes 18% on its first day of trading.\n\nGrab, Southeast Asia's biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm,lists on Nasdaq on Thursday following its $40 billion merger with special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Altimeter Growth Corp.\nThe deal is the world's biggest ever by a blank-check company and the biggest U.S. listing by a Southeast Asian firm.\nWHAT IS GRAB?\nFounded in 2012, Grab is Southeast Asia's largest startup, valued at just over $16 billion last year. It launched as a Malaysian taxi-hailing service and now calls itself a \"superapp\" after expanding into food, grocery and parcel delivery and to digital payments, lending and other financial services.\nSingapore-headquartered Grab operates across 465 cities in eight countries in the region, counting Indonesia as its biggest. Its venture with Singapore Telecommunications Ltd(STEL.SI)was awarded a digital bank license in Singapore last year.\nGrab gained the global spotlight in 2018 when it bought the Southeast Asian business of Uber Technologies Inc(UBER.N)in return for the U.S. ride-hailing company taking a stake in Grab.\nWith some 8,000 employees, Grab has tech centres in Singapore, Beijing, Seattle, Bengaluru and other places.\nWHO'S BACKING GRAB?\nEarly investors include Japan's SoftBank, China's Didi Chuxing and venture capital firms Vertex Ventures Holdings and GGV Capital.\nGrab raised about $12 billion ahead of the listing. Investors range from venture and hedge funds to automobile companies and other ride-hailing firms, and include:\nUber, Booking Holdings Inc, China Investment Corp, Coatue Management, Hillhouse Capital, Hyundai Motor Co, Invesco Ltd, Microsoft Corp, Ping An Capital Co, Toyota Motor Corp, and Yamaha Motor Co..\nIn the SPAC deal, about three dozen investors came on board including Temasek Holdings, BlackRock, Fidelity International, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala and Malaysia's Permodalan Nasional Bhd and Altimeter Capital.\nWHO'S THE COMPETITION?\nGoTo Group, formed by the merger of Indonesian ride-hailing and deliveries firm Gojek and local e-commerce leader Tokopedia is Grab's biggest competitor.\nSingapore-based Sea Ltd, which has e-commerce, gaming and a digital payments business, and is also muscling into food delivery and financial services in Indonesia. Sea has also won a digital bank license in Singapore.\nGrab is likely to increasingly start competing with banks as it expands its financial services.\nIt also competes with such delivery companies as Foodpanda and Deliveroo PLC.\nWHAT ARE GRAB'S FINANCIALS?\nGrab's third-quarter revenue fell 9% from a year earlier to $157 million. Its adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) widened 66% to $212 million. Gross merchandise value hit a quarterly record of $4 billion.\nThe delivery business has emerged as the biggest segment as more consumers shifted to online food delivery during the pandemic.\nGrab forecasts it will turn profitable on an EBITDA basis in 2023.\nWHO ARE ITS KEY EXECUTIVES?\nAnthony Tan, 39, is the company's CEO and co-founder.\nFellow co-founder Tan Hooi Ling, 38, runs Grab's operations, including corporate strategy and technology.\nBoth Tans, unrelated, met at Harvard Business School, where they conceived the idea of the ride-hailing company.\nGrab's president, Ming Maa, is a prominent dealmaker from SoftBank, who joined the company in 2016.\nHere are some milestones for the Singapore-headquartered company:\n2011: Anthony Tan and co-founder Tan Hooi Ling create Grab in a Harvard Business School venture competition plan\n2012: Launches as MyTeksi taxi booking service in Malaysia\n2013: Expands to the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore as GrabTaxi\nApril 2014: Announces Series A funding\nJune 2014: Launches in Indonesia\nDecember 2014: Japan's SoftBank invests $250 million in a funding round\nAugust 2015: Becomes a unicorn after $350 million funding round\nDecember 2015: Announces a strategic partnership with other ride-hailing companies Ola, Didi, and Lyft that competed against Uber\nJanuary 2016: Rebrands to Grab from GrabTaxi to reflect expanding services\nNovember 2017: Launches GrabPay payments service for third-party transactions\nMarch 2018: Announces acquisition of Uber's business in Southeast Asia through an all-share deal, Uber becomes a strategic shareholder\nMay 2018: Pilots GrabFood delivery service\nJuly 2018: Unveils \"superapp\" strategy that provides a range of services under one platform\nMarch 2019: Reaches valuation of about $14 billion\nDecember 2020: Wins digital full bank license in Singapore in a partnership with Singapore Telecommunications Ltd\nApril 2021: Agrees to list on Nasdaq through a merger with special-purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp securing a valuation of nearly $40 billion","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609338531,"gmtCreate":1638237538741,"gmtModify":1638237547004,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dip was on fri","listText":"Dip was on fri","text":"Dip was on fri","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609338531","repostId":"2187505305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2187505305","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638236834,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2187505305?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 09:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Omicron stock market rout doesn't mean stocks are a 'screaming' buy: strategist<blockquote>策略师：奥密克戎股市崩盘并不意味着股票值得“尖叫”买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2187505305","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Don't back up the truck just yet on stocks even in the wake of Friday's brutal Omicron variant fuele","content":"<p><div> Don't back up the truck just yet on stocks even in the wake of Friday's brutal Omicron variant fueled sell-off, warns one long-time strategist. \"I just don't think we hit the level on the S&P 500 ...</p><p><blockquote><div>一位长期策略师警告说，即使在周五残酷的奥密克戎变体引发抛售之后，也不要急于买入股票。“我只是不认为我们达到了标普500的水平……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/omicron-stock-market-rout-doesnt-mean-stocks-are-a-screaming-buy-strategist-192814731.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/omicron-stock-market-rout-doesnt-mean-stocks-are-a-screaming-buy-strategist-192814731.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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If Omicron is not an issue, but the Fed starts to react to higher inflation, we would have a hawkish Fed pivot. So I think we need to maybe put a pause on the Santa rally expectations, and look for pockets of opportunity, which I do see a few.\"\nAmoroso thinks those pockets of opportunity exist in the biotech space as traders are reminded the pandemic is far from over. Oil stocks also look oversold, Amoroso thinks.\nTraders nibbled at stocks on Monday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average cratered more than 1,000 points the day after Thanksgiving. The violent sell-off transpired as reports of the Omicron variant spreading to more countries — leading to a host of new travel bans — surfaced. Concerns mounted on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson against Omicron and other potential mutations.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) — aka Wall Street's measurement of fear in the markets — shot higher by 54% on the session. That marked the the fourth greatest one-day percentage rise for the VIX since 1990, according to data from Truist.\nTravel stocks like Delta and Hilton were pummeled, while traders rotated into work-from-home names such as Zoom on a view office returns would be pushed out again.\nReopening plays in the travel space saw tepid buying interest on Monday as traders awaited another potential shoe to drop on the Omicron front. The VIX — while down 22% on Monday's session — hovered around levels last seen in September during the inflation-fears driven market sell-off.\nThat said, some strategists are staying with their buy the dip mentality post Friday's drubbing. History suggests that is the right course of action, however painful the short-term may be for the markets.\n\"The evidence suggests selling on the type of fear seen on Friday has often been the wrong decision, at least longer term. Indeed, when we look at the previous instances when the VIX spiked more than 40% in one day, stocks were higher 18 out of 19 times a year later, with an average gain of 20%,\" said Keith Lerner, Truist co-chief investment officer, in a research note to clients.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":373184479,"gmtCreate":1618831948691,"gmtModify":1634290561731,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"LnC pls","listText":"LnC pls","text":"LnC pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373184479","repostId":"2128525488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":828162965,"gmtCreate":1633868895296,"gmtModify":1633868895384,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828162965","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183996982,"gmtCreate":1623298691346,"gmtModify":1634034819543,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183996982","repostId":"1142408805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142408805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623280126,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142408805?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks end lower ahead of inflation report<blockquote>美国股市在通胀报告发布前收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142408805","media":"reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants a","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 华尔街周三收盘走低，市场参与者等待通胀数据，以寻找美联储何时可能收紧鸽派货币政策的线索。</blockquote></p><p> The retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.</p><p><blockquote>零售业 “梗股 ”热潮有增无减。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均扭转了早些时候的涨幅，但在缺乏任何明确的市场催化剂的情况下仍处于区间区间。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”</p><p><blockquote>“印第安纳州哈蒙德市地平线投资服务公司（Horizon Investment Services）首席执行官查克-卡尔森（Chuck Carlson）说：”新闻方面有一个平静期。“我们正经历财报期，人们都在等待明天的通胀数据，因此市场喜忧参半，主要股指的表现并不理想。”</blockquote></p><p> Heavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.</p><p><blockquote>严重做空的模因股票延续了社交媒体推动的涨势，Aethlon Medical 飙升 388.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Reddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Reddit chatter 还帮助监狱运营商 GEO Group 和 World Wrestling Entertainment 的股价分别上涨了 38.4% 和 10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> However, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond closed lower.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clover Health、AMC院线和Bed Bath &amp; Beyond等其他模因股票收盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Retail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Vanda Research 的数据，随着社交媒体论坛争先恐后地确定下一个游戏驿站公司（引发这一现象的股票），零售量已恢复到 1 月份的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> “It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔森补充说：”这感觉就像另类股票市场。这是猜测的迹象。如果你在正确的时机进场，你就能取得成功，但随着时间的推移，很难取得成功。”</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为你不应该过多地了解大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> GameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站在财报公布前任命 Matt Furlong 为新任首席执行官，财报显示季度亏损每股 1.01 美元。其股价在盘后交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.</p><p><blockquote>在与参议员雪莱·卡皮托的一对一会谈破裂后，美国总统乔·拜登在正在进行的谈判中改变了路线，以就基础设施支出达成两党协议。</blockquote></p><p> Industrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.</p><p><blockquote>受益于基础设施交易的工业股下跌了 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Washington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿立法者通过了一项全面法案，旨在提高美国与中国技术竞争的能力，在芯片供应持续干旱的情况下为研究和半导体生产提供资金。该法案现在提交众议院。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，费城东南半导体指数仍下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部（Labor Department）将于周四发布的消费者价格指数报告将在经济复苏的供需失衡情况下对通胀做出另一种看法，因为投资者将确定通胀压力是否像美联储所说的那样是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&amp;P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌152.68点，跌幅0.44%，至34,447.14点；标普500下跌 7.71 点，跌幅 0.18%，报 4,219.55 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 13.16 点，跌幅 0.09%，至 13,911.75 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare gained the most.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500的11个主要行业中，医疗保健行业涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Benchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.</p><p><blockquote>基准国债收益率自 5 月份以来首次跌破 1.5%，给对利率敏感的金融股带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤公司未达到季度利润预期，并下调了全年盈利预测，导致其股价下跌 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Drugmaker Merck &amp; Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>制药商默克公司（Merck &amp; Co）宣布，如果该药物获得监管部门批准，美国政府已同意以约 12 亿美元的价格购买约 170 万个疗程的 COVID-19 实验性治疗药物 molnupiravir。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.12 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.13 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 38 个 52 周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下126个新高和14个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 115.3 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 107.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks end lower ahead of inflation report<blockquote>美国股市在通胀报告发布前收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 华尔街周三收盘走低，市场参与者等待通胀数据，以寻找美联储何时可能收紧鸽派货币政策的线索。</blockquote></p><p> The retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.</p><p><blockquote>零售业 “梗股 ”热潮有增无减。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均扭转了早些时候的涨幅，但在缺乏任何明确的市场催化剂的情况下仍处于区间区间。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”</p><p><blockquote>“印第安纳州哈蒙德市地平线投资服务公司（Horizon Investment Services）首席执行官查克-卡尔森（Chuck Carlson）说：”新闻方面有一个平静期。“我们正经历财报期，人们都在等待明天的通胀数据，因此市场喜忧参半，主要股指的表现并不理想。”</blockquote></p><p> Heavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.</p><p><blockquote>严重做空的模因股票延续了社交媒体推动的涨势，Aethlon Medical 飙升 388.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Reddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Reddit chatter 还帮助监狱运营商 GEO Group 和 World Wrestling Entertainment 的股价分别上涨了 38.4% 和 10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> However, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond closed lower.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clover Health、AMC院线和Bed Bath &amp; Beyond等其他模因股票收盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Retail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Vanda Research 的数据，随着社交媒体论坛争先恐后地确定下一个游戏驿站公司（引发这一现象的股票），零售量已恢复到 1 月份的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> “It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔森补充说：”这感觉就像另类股票市场。这是猜测的迹象。如果你在正确的时机进场，你就能取得成功，但随着时间的推移，很难取得成功。”</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为你不应该过多地了解大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> GameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站在财报公布前任命 Matt Furlong 为新任首席执行官，财报显示季度亏损每股 1.01 美元。其股价在盘后交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.</p><p><blockquote>在与参议员雪莱·卡皮托的一对一会谈破裂后，美国总统乔·拜登在正在进行的谈判中改变了路线，以就基础设施支出达成两党协议。</blockquote></p><p> Industrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.</p><p><blockquote>受益于基础设施交易的工业股下跌了 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Washington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿立法者通过了一项全面法案，旨在提高美国与中国技术竞争的能力，在芯片供应持续干旱的情况下为研究和半导体生产提供资金。该法案现在提交众议院。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，费城东南半导体指数仍下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部（Labor Department）将于周四发布的消费者价格指数报告将在经济复苏的供需失衡情况下对通胀做出另一种看法，因为投资者将确定通胀压力是否像美联储所说的那样是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&amp;P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌152.68点，跌幅0.44%，至34,447.14点；标普500下跌 7.71 点，跌幅 0.18%，报 4,219.55 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 13.16 点，跌幅 0.09%，至 13,911.75 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare gained the most.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500的11个主要行业中，医疗保健行业涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Benchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.</p><p><blockquote>基准国债收益率自 5 月份以来首次跌破 1.5%，给对利率敏感的金融股带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤公司未达到季度利润预期，并下调了全年盈利预测，导致其股价下跌 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Drugmaker Merck &amp; Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>制药商默克公司（Merck &amp; Co）宣布，如果该药物获得监管部门批准，美国政府已同意以约 12 亿美元的价格购买约 170 万个疗程的 COVID-19 实验性治疗药物 molnupiravir。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.12 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.13 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 38 个 52 周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下126个新高和14个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 115.3 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 107.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-end-lower-ahead-of-inflation-report-idUSL2N2NR2UG\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AEMD":"Aethlon Medical Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-end-lower-ahead-of-inflation-report-idUSL2N2NR2UG","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142408805","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.\nThe retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.\nAll three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.\n“There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”\nHeavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.\nReddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.\nHowever, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond closed lower.\nRetail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.\n“It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”\n“I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”\nGameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.\nU.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.\nIndustrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.\nWashington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.\nEven so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.\nThe Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare gained the most.\nBenchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.\nCampbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.\nDrugmaker Merck & Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AEMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137482345,"gmtCreate":1622377610587,"gmtModify":1634101938937,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137482345","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195563725,"gmtCreate":1621302276867,"gmtModify":1634192632440,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195563725","repostId":"2136295438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165072075,"gmtCreate":1624083758797,"gmtModify":1634010861483,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165072075","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119920866,"gmtCreate":1622514252755,"gmtModify":1634100922457,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119920866","repostId":"1105273964","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105273964","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622511256,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105273964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Are the 11 Best Performing IPOs of the Year<blockquote>以下是今年表现最好的 11 家 IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105273964","media":"Barron's","summary":"The market for initial public offerings has recently delivered some great first-day gains for investors who were able to get shares before the companies went public.That left us with 11 names. First up:CureVac, which was the screen’s best-performing IPO and had a total return of 596.75%. CureVac specializes in the messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology that is the basis of several leading Covid-19 vaccine programs. The German biotech company went public inAugust at $16 a shareand soared 249% in its ","content":"<p>The market for initial public offerings has recently delivered some great first-day gains for investors who were able to get shares before the companies went public.</p><p><blockquote>首次公开募股市场最近为那些能够在公司上市前获得股票的投资者带来了一些巨大的首日收益。</blockquote></p><p>But not everyone receives these types of opportunities. Most retail investors have to wait until companies start publicly trading to buy stock.<i>Barron’s</i>looked at businesses that have gone public in the past 12 months to find some strong performers.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能得到这类机会。大多数散户投资者必须等到公司开始公开交易才能购买股票。<i>巴伦</i>查看过去 12 个月内上市的企业，寻找一些表现强劲的企业。</blockquote></p><p>First, we searched for companies that listed via a traditional initial public offering: This meant we filtered out businesses that merged withspecial purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Then, we searched for companies that went public on either the New York Stock Exchange or the Nasdaq. We also focused on entities that had at least a $1 billion market capitalization. We narrowed our search to companies with the highesttotal returns from their stock offering prices..</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们搜索通过传统首次公开募股上市的公司：这意味着我们过滤掉了与特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并的企业。然后，我们搜索了在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克上市的公司。我们还关注市值至少为 10 亿美元的实体。我们将搜索范围缩小到股票发行价总回报率最高的公司..</blockquote></p><p>That left us with 11 names. First up:CureVac(ticker: CVAC), which was the screen’s best-performing IPO and had a total return of 596.75%. CureVac specializes in the messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology that is the basis of several leading Covid-19 vaccine programs. The German biotech company went public inAugust at $16 a shareand soared 249% in its first day, with the stock closing at $55.90. In January, CureVacstruck a deal with Bayerto accelerate the development and supply of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate. The company’s mRNA-based Covid-19 vaccine is now in clinical trials, and Phase2b/3 data is expected this summer. Since its IPO, the stock has nearly doubled, closingFriday at $111.48 .</p><p><blockquote>这样我们就有了11个名字。排名第一的是 CureVac（股票代码：CVAC），这是 screen 上表现最好的 IPO，总回报率为 596.75%。CureVac专注于信使RNA或mRNA技术，这是几个领先的新冠肺炎疫苗项目的基础。这家德国生物技术公司 8 月份以每股 16 美元的价格上市，首日股价飙升 249%，收于 55.90 美元。一月份，CureVac 与拜耳达成协议，加速其 Covid-19 候选疫苗的开发和供应。该公司基于 mRNA 的 Covid-19 疫苗目前正在进行临床试验，2b/3 期数据预计将于今年夏天公布。自首次公开募股以来，该股已上涨近一倍，周五收于 111.48 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Strong performances need not be dictated by success on the first day of trading. Four of the companies that made our list were busted deals—meaning that their shares fell below their IPO prices on the first day of trading.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的表现并不一定取决于第一天交易的成功。我们名单上的四家公司交易失败了，这意味着它们的股票在交易第一天就跌破了IPO价格。</blockquote></p><p>Case in point:ZIM Integrated Shipping(ZIM). The asset-light shipping company went public in January with a $15 offering price,but closed that day at $11.50. Yet by May 19, ZIM’s stockhad gained 295%after itreported first-quarter earnings of $589.6 million, or $5.35 a share. The companyalso declared a special cash dividend of $2 a share. ZIM is the second-best-performing IPO in the past 12 months, based on a total return of 209.33%, according to FactSet. It closed on Friday at $46.40.</p><p><blockquote>典型案例：以星综合航运（ZIM）。这家轻资产航运公司于 1 月份上市，发行价为 15 美元，但当天收盘价为 11.50 美元。然而，到 5 月 19 日，以星公布第一季度收益为 5.896 亿美元，即每股收益 5.35 美元，其股价上涨了 295%。该公司还宣布派发每股 2 美元的特别现金股息。根据 FactSet 的数据，以星是过去 12 个月中表现第二好的 IPO，总回报率为 209.33%。周五收盘价为 46.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Another example isAcademy Sports &amp; Outdoors(ASO): The companywent public in Octoberwith a $13 offering price, with the stock closing at $12.99 during its first day of public trading<b>.</b>Academy was profitable when it went public, a rarity in the IPO market. InMarch, the company reported that its net incomesoared 416%, to $91.5 million, or 97 cents a share, for its fourth fiscal quarter ended Jan. 30. Its shares have nearly tripled since the IPO, and were trading at $36.53 on Friday. Academy Sports ranks third with a total return from the offering price of 181%, FactSet said.</p><p><blockquote>另一个例子是 isAcademy Sports &amp; Outdoors (ASO)：该公司于 10 月份上市，发行价为 13 美元，公开交易首日收盘价为 12.99 美元<b>.</b>Academy上市时盈利，这在IPO市场上实属罕见。今年 3 月，该公司报告称，截至 1 月 30 日的第四财季，其净利润增长 416%，达到 9150 万美元，即每股 97 美分。自 IPO 以来，其股价已上涨近两倍，周五交易价格为 36.53 美元。FactSet 表示，Academy Sports 排名第三，发行价总回报率为 181%。</blockquote></p><p>Strong GainersThese companies all went public in the last year and produced high total returns compared to their IPO prices.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dedc209ede147958c015d3a586bb587\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"606\">Rounding out this category areCorsair Gaming(CRSR), a California companythat makes performance gear for gamers, and the Dubai-basedYalla Group(YALA), whichmakes a voice-chat app usedin the Middle East and North Africa called Yalla. Both stocks have rebounded strongly after less-than-stellar September IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的涨幅这些公司都是去年上市的，与 IPO 价格相比，总回报率很高。属于这一类别的还有 Corsair Gaming (CRSR)，这是一家为游戏玩家生产性能装备的加州公司，以及总部位于迪拜的 Dyalla Group (YALA)，后者生产一款在中东和北非使用的名为 Yalla 的语音聊天应用程序。在 9 月份 IPO 表现不佳后，这两只股票都强劲反弹。</blockquote></p><p>Some companies that made our list soared during their debuts, but have since seen their shares retreat. Still, these companies are producing gains.</p><p><blockquote>一些上榜的公司在首次亮相时股价飙升，但此后股价下跌。尽管如此，这些公司仍在盈利。</blockquote></p><p>ConsiderBigCommerce(BIGC), which provides a cloud e-commerce platform that is used by such customers as SkullCandy, Savannah Bee Co, and the Cleveland Cavaliers.BigCommerce&nbsp;went public in Augustwith a $24 offering price—and the stock soared 201% that day,closing at $72.27. Since the IPO, the shares have fallen nearly 25%, amid a broader technology selloff.</p><p><blockquote>考虑 BigCommerce (BIGC)，它提供云电子商务平台，供 SkullCandy、Savannah Bee Co 和 Cleveland Cavaliers 等客户使用。 BigCommerce 于 8 月上市，发行价为 24 美元，股价飙升 201%当天，收于 72.27 美元。自 IPO 以来，由于更广泛的技术抛售，该公司股价已下跌近 25%。</blockquote></p><p>The company, however, has reported some positive developments, like a deal in February that wouldgive BigCommerce customersthe ability to sell directly on Walmart Marketplace. It also reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. BigCommerce has produced a total return of nearly 127%, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司报告了一些积极的进展，例如 2 月份的一项交易，该交易将使 BigCommerce 客户能够在沃尔玛市场上直接销售。该公司还公布了好于预期的第四季度业绩。根据 FactSet 的数据，BigCommerce 的总回报率接近 127%。</blockquote></p><p>Other companies have seen their shares jump since going public.Dream Finders Homes (DFH), which designs, builds, and sells homes in high-growth markets, was already profitable when it made its trading debut in January at $13 a share. Shares soared 61%, $20.95 on its first day.Prices for houses in Marchgrew at the fastest rate since 2005, which has helped real estate stocks. Dream Finders stock has gained nearly 52% since its IPO, trading Friday at $31.77. Dream Finders notched a total return from offering price of 144.38%.</p><p><blockquote>其他公司自上市以来股价也大幅上涨。 Dream Finders Homes (DFH) 在高增长市场设计、建造和销售房屋，1 月份以每股 13 美元的价格首次交易时就已经盈利。首日股价飙升 61%，至 20.95 美元。3月份房价以2005年以来最快的速度增长，这对房地产股有所帮助。Dream Finders 股价自 IPO 以来已上涨近 52%，周五交易价格为 31.77 美元。Dream Finders 的发行价总回报率为 144.38%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Are the 11 Best Performing IPOs of the Year<blockquote>以下是今年表现最好的 11 家 IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Are the 11 Best Performing IPOs of the Year<blockquote>以下是今年表现最好的 11 家 IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-01 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market for initial public offerings has recently delivered some great first-day gains for investors who were able to get shares before the companies went public.</p><p><blockquote>首次公开募股市场最近为那些能够在公司上市前获得股票的投资者带来了一些巨大的首日收益。</blockquote></p><p>But not everyone receives these types of opportunities. Most retail investors have to wait until companies start publicly trading to buy stock.<i>Barron’s</i>looked at businesses that have gone public in the past 12 months to find some strong performers.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能得到这类机会。大多数散户投资者必须等到公司开始公开交易才能购买股票。<i>巴伦</i>查看过去 12 个月内上市的企业，寻找一些表现强劲的企业。</blockquote></p><p>First, we searched for companies that listed via a traditional initial public offering: This meant we filtered out businesses that merged withspecial purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Then, we searched for companies that went public on either the New York Stock Exchange or the Nasdaq. We also focused on entities that had at least a $1 billion market capitalization. We narrowed our search to companies with the highesttotal returns from their stock offering prices..</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们搜索通过传统首次公开募股上市的公司：这意味着我们过滤掉了与特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并的企业。然后，我们搜索了在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克上市的公司。我们还关注市值至少为 10 亿美元的实体。我们将搜索范围缩小到股票发行价总回报率最高的公司..</blockquote></p><p>That left us with 11 names. First up:CureVac(ticker: CVAC), which was the screen’s best-performing IPO and had a total return of 596.75%. CureVac specializes in the messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology that is the basis of several leading Covid-19 vaccine programs. The German biotech company went public inAugust at $16 a shareand soared 249% in its first day, with the stock closing at $55.90. In January, CureVacstruck a deal with Bayerto accelerate the development and supply of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate. The company’s mRNA-based Covid-19 vaccine is now in clinical trials, and Phase2b/3 data is expected this summer. Since its IPO, the stock has nearly doubled, closingFriday at $111.48 .</p><p><blockquote>这样我们就有了11个名字。排名第一的是 CureVac（股票代码：CVAC），这是 screen 上表现最好的 IPO，总回报率为 596.75%。CureVac专注于信使RNA或mRNA技术，这是几个领先的新冠肺炎疫苗项目的基础。这家德国生物技术公司 8 月份以每股 16 美元的价格上市，首日股价飙升 249%，收于 55.90 美元。一月份，CureVac 与拜耳达成协议，加速其 Covid-19 候选疫苗的开发和供应。该公司基于 mRNA 的 Covid-19 疫苗目前正在进行临床试验，2b/3 期数据预计将于今年夏天公布。自首次公开募股以来，该股已上涨近一倍，周五收于 111.48 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Strong performances need not be dictated by success on the first day of trading. Four of the companies that made our list were busted deals—meaning that their shares fell below their IPO prices on the first day of trading.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的表现并不一定取决于第一天交易的成功。我们名单上的四家公司交易失败了，这意味着它们的股票在交易第一天就跌破了IPO价格。</blockquote></p><p>Case in point:ZIM Integrated Shipping(ZIM). The asset-light shipping company went public in January with a $15 offering price,but closed that day at $11.50. Yet by May 19, ZIM’s stockhad gained 295%after itreported first-quarter earnings of $589.6 million, or $5.35 a share. The companyalso declared a special cash dividend of $2 a share. ZIM is the second-best-performing IPO in the past 12 months, based on a total return of 209.33%, according to FactSet. It closed on Friday at $46.40.</p><p><blockquote>典型案例：以星综合航运（ZIM）。这家轻资产航运公司于 1 月份上市，发行价为 15 美元，但当天收盘价为 11.50 美元。然而，到 5 月 19 日，以星公布第一季度收益为 5.896 亿美元，即每股收益 5.35 美元，其股价上涨了 295%。该公司还宣布派发每股 2 美元的特别现金股息。根据 FactSet 的数据，以星是过去 12 个月中表现第二好的 IPO，总回报率为 209.33%。周五收盘价为 46.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Another example isAcademy Sports &amp; Outdoors(ASO): The companywent public in Octoberwith a $13 offering price, with the stock closing at $12.99 during its first day of public trading<b>.</b>Academy was profitable when it went public, a rarity in the IPO market. InMarch, the company reported that its net incomesoared 416%, to $91.5 million, or 97 cents a share, for its fourth fiscal quarter ended Jan. 30. Its shares have nearly tripled since the IPO, and were trading at $36.53 on Friday. Academy Sports ranks third with a total return from the offering price of 181%, FactSet said.</p><p><blockquote>另一个例子是 isAcademy Sports &amp; Outdoors (ASO)：该公司于 10 月份上市，发行价为 13 美元，公开交易首日收盘价为 12.99 美元<b>.</b>Academy上市时盈利，这在IPO市场上实属罕见。今年 3 月，该公司报告称，截至 1 月 30 日的第四财季，其净利润增长 416%，达到 9150 万美元，即每股 97 美分。自 IPO 以来，其股价已上涨近两倍，周五交易价格为 36.53 美元。FactSet 表示，Academy Sports 排名第三，发行价总回报率为 181%。</blockquote></p><p>Strong GainersThese companies all went public in the last year and produced high total returns compared to their IPO prices.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dedc209ede147958c015d3a586bb587\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"606\">Rounding out this category areCorsair Gaming(CRSR), a California companythat makes performance gear for gamers, and the Dubai-basedYalla Group(YALA), whichmakes a voice-chat app usedin the Middle East and North Africa called Yalla. Both stocks have rebounded strongly after less-than-stellar September IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的涨幅这些公司都是去年上市的，与 IPO 价格相比，总回报率很高。属于这一类别的还有 Corsair Gaming (CRSR)，这是一家为游戏玩家生产性能装备的加州公司，以及总部位于迪拜的 Dyalla Group (YALA)，后者生产一款在中东和北非使用的名为 Yalla 的语音聊天应用程序。在 9 月份 IPO 表现不佳后，这两只股票都强劲反弹。</blockquote></p><p>Some companies that made our list soared during their debuts, but have since seen their shares retreat. Still, these companies are producing gains.</p><p><blockquote>一些上榜的公司在首次亮相时股价飙升，但此后股价下跌。尽管如此，这些公司仍在盈利。</blockquote></p><p>ConsiderBigCommerce(BIGC), which provides a cloud e-commerce platform that is used by such customers as SkullCandy, Savannah Bee Co, and the Cleveland Cavaliers.BigCommerce&nbsp;went public in Augustwith a $24 offering price—and the stock soared 201% that day,closing at $72.27. Since the IPO, the shares have fallen nearly 25%, amid a broader technology selloff.</p><p><blockquote>考虑 BigCommerce (BIGC)，它提供云电子商务平台，供 SkullCandy、Savannah Bee Co 和 Cleveland Cavaliers 等客户使用。 BigCommerce 于 8 月上市，发行价为 24 美元，股价飙升 201%当天，收于 72.27 美元。自 IPO 以来，由于更广泛的技术抛售，该公司股价已下跌近 25%。</blockquote></p><p>The company, however, has reported some positive developments, like a deal in February that wouldgive BigCommerce customersthe ability to sell directly on Walmart Marketplace. It also reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. BigCommerce has produced a total return of nearly 127%, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司报告了一些积极的进展，例如 2 月份的一项交易，该交易将使 BigCommerce 客户能够在沃尔玛市场上直接销售。该公司还公布了好于预期的第四季度业绩。根据 FactSet 的数据，BigCommerce 的总回报率接近 127%。</blockquote></p><p>Other companies have seen their shares jump since going public.Dream Finders Homes (DFH), which designs, builds, and sells homes in high-growth markets, was already profitable when it made its trading debut in January at $13 a share. Shares soared 61%, $20.95 on its first day.Prices for houses in Marchgrew at the fastest rate since 2005, which has helped real estate stocks. Dream Finders stock has gained nearly 52% since its IPO, trading Friday at $31.77. Dream Finders notched a total return from offering price of 144.38%.</p><p><blockquote>其他公司自上市以来股价也大幅上涨。 Dream Finders Homes (DFH) 在高增长市场设计、建造和销售房屋，1 月份以每股 13 美元的价格首次交易时就已经盈利。首日股价飙升 61%，至 20.95 美元。3月份房价以2005年以来最快的速度增长，这对房地产股有所帮助。Dream Finders 股价自 IPO 以来已上涨近 52%，周五交易价格为 31.77 美元。Dream Finders 的发行价总回报率为 144.38%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/here-are-the-11-best-performing-ipos-of-the-year-51622472529?mod=hp_DAY_0\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/here-are-the-11-best-performing-ipos-of-the-year-51622472529?mod=hp_DAY_0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105273964","content_text":"The market for initial public offerings has recently delivered some great first-day gains for investors who were able to get shares before the companies went public.But not everyone receives these types of opportunities. Most retail investors have to wait until companies start publicly trading to buy stock.Barron’slooked at businesses that have gone public in the past 12 months to find some strong performers.First, we searched for companies that listed via a traditional initial public offering: This meant we filtered out businesses that merged withspecial purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Then, we searched for companies that went public on either the New York Stock Exchange or the Nasdaq. We also focused on entities that had at least a $1 billion market capitalization. We narrowed our search to companies with the highesttotal returns from their stock offering prices..That left us with 11 names. First up:CureVac(ticker: CVAC), which was the screen’s best-performing IPO and had a total return of 596.75%. CureVac specializes in the messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology that is the basis of several leading Covid-19 vaccine programs. The German biotech company went public inAugust at $16 a shareand soared 249% in its first day, with the stock closing at $55.90. In January, CureVacstruck a deal with Bayerto accelerate the development and supply of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate. The company’s mRNA-based Covid-19 vaccine is now in clinical trials, and Phase2b/3 data is expected this summer. Since its IPO, the stock has nearly doubled, closingFriday at $111.48 .Strong performances need not be dictated by success on the first day of trading. Four of the companies that made our list were busted deals—meaning that their shares fell below their IPO prices on the first day of trading.Case in point:ZIM Integrated Shipping(ZIM). The asset-light shipping company went public in January with a $15 offering price,but closed that day at $11.50. Yet by May 19, ZIM’s stockhad gained 295%after itreported first-quarter earnings of $589.6 million, or $5.35 a share. The companyalso declared a special cash dividend of $2 a share. ZIM is the second-best-performing IPO in the past 12 months, based on a total return of 209.33%, according to FactSet. It closed on Friday at $46.40.Another example isAcademy Sports & Outdoors(ASO): The companywent public in Octoberwith a $13 offering price, with the stock closing at $12.99 during its first day of public trading.Academy was profitable when it went public, a rarity in the IPO market. InMarch, the company reported that its net incomesoared 416%, to $91.5 million, or 97 cents a share, for its fourth fiscal quarter ended Jan. 30. Its shares have nearly tripled since the IPO, and were trading at $36.53 on Friday. Academy Sports ranks third with a total return from the offering price of 181%, FactSet said.Strong GainersThese companies all went public in the last year and produced high total returns compared to their IPO prices.Rounding out this category areCorsair Gaming(CRSR), a California companythat makes performance gear for gamers, and the Dubai-basedYalla Group(YALA), whichmakes a voice-chat app usedin the Middle East and North Africa called Yalla. Both stocks have rebounded strongly after less-than-stellar September IPOs.Some companies that made our list soared during their debuts, but have since seen their shares retreat. Still, these companies are producing gains.ConsiderBigCommerce(BIGC), which provides a cloud e-commerce platform that is used by such customers as SkullCandy, Savannah Bee Co, and the Cleveland Cavaliers.BigCommerce went public in Augustwith a $24 offering price—and the stock soared 201% that day,closing at $72.27. Since the IPO, the shares have fallen nearly 25%, amid a broader technology selloff.The company, however, has reported some positive developments, like a deal in February that wouldgive BigCommerce customersthe ability to sell directly on Walmart Marketplace. It also reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. BigCommerce has produced a total return of nearly 127%, according to FactSet.Other companies have seen their shares jump since going public.Dream Finders Homes (DFH), which designs, builds, and sells homes in high-growth markets, was already profitable when it made its trading debut in January at $13 a share. Shares soared 61%, $20.95 on its first day.Prices for houses in Marchgrew at the fastest rate since 2005, which has helped real estate stocks. Dream Finders stock has gained nearly 52% since its IPO, trading Friday at $31.77. Dream Finders notched a total return from offering price of 144.38%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BOTB.UK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":698227726,"gmtCreate":1640415314432,"gmtModify":1640415314672,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698227726","repostId":"2193917872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":124383248,"gmtCreate":1624741982784,"gmtModify":1631893081290,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124383248","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166165699,"gmtCreate":1623997314511,"gmtModify":1634024360374,"author":{"id":"3563679388810703","authorId":"3563679388810703","name":"weifeng_86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc9f3194863971bc80619291db737e0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563679388810703","idStr":"3563679388810703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166165699","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}