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sgczhao
2021-08-23
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sgczhao
2021-08-23
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sgczhao
2021-07-02
,,👍👍
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sgczhao
2021-06-26
[强] [强]
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sgczhao
2021-06-11
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sgczhao
2021-06-09
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JOLTS突破900万大关,再度创下历史新高
sgczhao
2021-05-24
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sgczhao
2021-05-21
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sgczhao
2021-05-20
上这趟车要有强大的心脏
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sgczhao
2021-05-16
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2021-05-11
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sgczhao
2021-05-04
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sgczhao
2021-04-17
升级iPad Pro
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sgczhao
2021-04-15
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都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?
sgczhao
2021-04-14
[愤怒] [愤怒]
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sgczhao
2021-04-13
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sgczhao
2021-04-10
全球买单
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sgczhao
2021-04-08
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2021-04-06
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2021-04-04
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23:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JOLTS突破900万大关,再度创下历史新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141267679","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局发布了4月职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)结果。相关数据显示,美国当月职位空缺的数量从3月上修后的828.8万上升至928.6万,再度录得历史新高,而职位空缺率则由上次","content":"<p>美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局发布了4月职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)结果。相关数据显示,美国当月职位空缺的数量从3月上修后的828.8万上升至928.6万,再度录得历史新高,而职位空缺率则由上次调查时的5.3%升至6%。JOLTS是当前美国财长耶伦最喜爱的劳动力市场指标。</p>\n<p>有分析认为,美国4月份的职位空缺继3月之后再度创下历史新高,凸显出随着企业从新冠限制当中逐渐摆脱以及,劳动力需求迅速增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bcf23cd9e1faa6bb947c4d36ee274f\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据劳工统计局同日发布的数据,每个职位空缺对应的失业人口数在去年触及5.0的高位之后已经连续一年出现下降,本月已经降到1.06,距离2018~2020年的0.8~0.9低位更加接近,显示市场就业状况仍在改善当中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c614c94feb2d73829328c99be02b8c98\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>耶伦关注的自主离职人数当月录得398.5万人,而自主离职率则为2.7%,两项数据相对上次调查均出现明显上升。</p>\n<p>招聘方面,4月整体招聘人数607.5万人,聘用率4.2%,已经是连续第四个月出现上升。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JOLTS突破900万大关,再度创下历史新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJOLTS突破900万大关,再度创下历史新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-08 23:09 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632482><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局发布了4月职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)结果。相关数据显示,美国当月职位空缺的数量从3月上修后的828.8万上升至928.6万,再度录得历史新高,而职位空缺率则由上次调查时的5.3%升至6%。JOLTS是当前美国财长耶伦最喜爱的劳动力市场指标。\n有分析认为,美国4月份的职位空缺继3月之后再度创下历史新高,凸显出随着企业从新冠限制当中逐渐摆脱以及,劳动力需求迅速增加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632482\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632482","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141267679","content_text":"美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局发布了4月职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)结果。相关数据显示,美国当月职位空缺的数量从3月上修后的828.8万上升至928.6万,再度录得历史新高,而职位空缺率则由上次调查时的5.3%升至6%。JOLTS是当前美国财长耶伦最喜爱的劳动力市场指标。\n有分析认为,美国4月份的职位空缺继3月之后再度创下历史新高,凸显出随着企业从新冠限制当中逐渐摆脱以及,劳动力需求迅速增加。\n\n根据劳工统计局同日发布的数据,每个职位空缺对应的失业人口数在去年触及5.0的高位之后已经连续一年出现下降,本月已经降到1.06,距离2018~2020年的0.8~0.9低位更加接近,显示市场就业状况仍在改善当中。\n\n耶伦关注的自主离职人数当月录得398.5万人,而自主离职率则为2.7%,两项数据相对上次调查均出现明显上升。\n招聘方面,4月整体招聘人数607.5万人,聘用率4.2%,已经是连续第四个月出现上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133726105,"gmtCreate":1621812950907,"gmtModify":1631890555612,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133726105","repostId":"1159987430","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130513218,"gmtCreate":1621556420334,"gmtModify":1631890555627,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130513218","repostId":"1190176519","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197296400,"gmtCreate":1621467831200,"gmtModify":1631890555647,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上这趟车要有强大的心脏","listText":"上这趟车要有强大的心脏","text":"上这趟车要有强大的心脏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197296400","repostId":"2136894642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192052089,"gmtCreate":1621132459341,"gmtModify":1631890555662,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🧐🧐","listText":"🧐🧐","text":"🧐🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192052089","repostId":"1164480285","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199654326,"gmtCreate":1620702010365,"gmtModify":1634196975175,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199654326","repostId":"1178159521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106956254,"gmtCreate":1620085760078,"gmtModify":1634208009830,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🧐🧐","listText":"🧐🧐","text":"🧐🧐","images"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Pro","listText":"升级iPad Pro","text":"升级iPad Pro","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370565743","repostId":"1198410511","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344707207,"gmtCreate":1618441645409,"gmtModify":1634292976334,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🧐🧐","listText":"🧐🧐","text":"🧐🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344707207","repostId":"1163247183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163247183","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1618379686,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163247183?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163247183","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那","content":"<blockquote>\n “劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。</p>\n<p>那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。</p>\n<p><b>八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人失业率降至9.6%),鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。</b></p>\n<p><b>上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出,“复苏仍然不完整,不均衡”</b>,将维持QE规模,直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb9269b36146e907455c5636dc1bd7d\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标,显示当前健康状况好于2013年</p>\n<p>其中的态度转变表明,美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重,并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。</p>\n<p><b>就业是重中之重</b></p>\n<p>在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上,美联储这次选择了后者,这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。</p>\n<p>2013年,美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密,他们认为失业率降到一定程度(4.5%)会触发物价水平急剧上升;则反过来,为了不让通胀失控,就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。</p>\n<p>于是,当年失业率还在7%的时候,美联储就宣布减少购债,因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降,慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。</p>\n<p><b>但事实证明,通胀确实在升,却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下,但八年来,由于私营部门消费投资热情不足,通胀持续低于2%。</b></p>\n<p><b>路透分析师Howard Schneider评论,这可能让美联储认为,通胀总体上较弱,所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平,而不会有很大的通胀风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>根据美联储的预测,到年底,失业率将从目前的6%下降到4.5%,预计到今年夏天,每月将增加一百万就业人数。</b>美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万,远超预期,被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。</p>\n<p>不过,许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%,创下2018年8月来最高水平,虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应,但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。</p>\n<p>疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂,目前尚未完全恢复,近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头,汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善,线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。</p>\n<p>Columbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除,经济正在进行重新配置,我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>何时“取得实质性进展”?</b></p>\n<p>那么对于就业市场,怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”?</p>\n<p>鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法:如果能像3月那样增加就业,“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口,“那样就真正开始显示,向着我们的目标有了进展”。</p>\n<p><b>但另外,美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。</b></p>\n<p>3月一次美联储会议上,鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击,本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前,虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上,表现都优于2013年退出QE时期,<b>但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc5f0395bc553ddbb5eb9870f1c7080\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示,今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”,“<b>劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。</b>”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-04-14 13:54 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acda3093f2aff10e50f822317125a553","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163247183","content_text":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人失业率降至9.6%),鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。\n上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出,“复苏仍然不完整,不均衡”,将维持QE规模,直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。\n\n指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标,显示当前健康状况好于2013年\n其中的态度转变表明,美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重,并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。\n就业是重中之重\n在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上,美联储这次选择了后者,这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。\n2013年,美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密,他们认为失业率降到一定程度(4.5%)会触发物价水平急剧上升;则反过来,为了不让通胀失控,就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。\n于是,当年失业率还在7%的时候,美联储就宣布减少购债,因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降,慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。\n但事实证明,通胀确实在升,却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下,但八年来,由于私营部门消费投资热情不足,通胀持续低于2%。\n路透分析师Howard Schneider评论,这可能让美联储认为,通胀总体上较弱,所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平,而不会有很大的通胀风险。\n根据美联储的预测,到年底,失业率将从目前的6%下降到4.5%,预计到今年夏天,每月将增加一百万就业人数。美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万,远超预期,被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。\n不过,许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%,创下2018年8月来最高水平,虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应,但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。\n疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂,目前尚未完全恢复,近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头,汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善,线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。\nColumbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示:\n\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除,经济正在进行重新配置,我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n\n何时“取得实质性进展”?\n那么对于就业市场,怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”?\n鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法:如果能像3月那样增加就业,“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口,“那样就真正开始显示,向着我们的目标有了进展”。\n但另外,美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。\n3月一次美联储会议上,鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧:\n\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击,本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n\n目前,虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上,表现都优于2013年退出QE时期,但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。\n\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick 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21:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"在股市中,应该怎样发现并跟上“大资金”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199168825","media":"交易员说","summary":"在股票市场中,一个非常重要的技术指标是“Smart Money Index”,简称为“SMI”。","content":"<p>股票市场的一些指标在市场的整体分析中起着重要的作用,因为指标反映了交易员的情绪。如果市场情绪积极,指标就会上升。</p>\n<p>日内交易者也可以根据股市指标制定他们的决策。</p>\n<p>一般来说,理解指标的组成和结构的细微差别对于做出所有类型的交易决策是至关重要的。</p>\n<p><b><u>在股票市场中,一个非常重要的技术指标是“Smart Money Index”,简称为“SMI”。</u></b></p>\n<p>该指标基于盘中价格,交易者通常用它来观察与主图中是否有差异,确认市场趋势。</p>\n<p>那么,SMI到底是什么,它是如何使用的呢?</p>\n<p><b>什么是“Smart Money Index”?</b></p>\n<p>上世纪90年代,唐•海耶斯(Don Hayes)推广了“Smart Money Index”。<b><u>它是一个技术指标,用于衡量美股市场中“大资金(smart money)”和“散户资金(dumb money)”的表现。</u></b></p>\n<p>在这种情况下,术语“smart”和“dumb”不一定与交易员的智力相关。相反,他们被用来区分那些预测(聪明)的交易者和那些反应较慢的交易者。</p>\n<p>SMI表明,短线交易者和投资者应该追随“大资金”,而不是“散户资金”。</p>\n<p><b><u>这一指标表明,专业交易者通常在一天结束时进入市场,这时交易受情绪的影响较小。</u></b></p>\n<p>这里的想法是,大多数交易者(受新闻驱动,情绪激动)在开市时进行交易,是因为隔夜的经济数据和新闻。 另一方面,更有经验的交易者会在收盘时进入市场,有机会评估市场表现。这一差异反映了这些“聪明”交易员的净交易量。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f942f4b8b66f69a73ffb60435e25db\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"469\">在上面的案例中,我们可以看到在互联网泡沫破灭之前,大资金就开始从市场中流出。这是一个很好的方式来了解潜在的未来市场方向。</p>\n<p><b>如何计算“Smart Money Index”</b></p>\n<p>理论上,SMI可以计算任何股票市场或市场指数。但主流媒体经常引用的是道琼斯工业平均指数。 然而,由于标普500更能代表美国股市,今天我们讲着重计算标普500指数的SMI。</p>\n<p><b><u>SMI的计算方法是用前一日的SMI值减去开盘30分钟的指数涨跌,再加上交易最后一小时的指数变化。</u></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b18ab08a59154e398ba7a37031431d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\"></p>\n<p>具体的计算如下:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 计算标普500指数在前半小时(东部时间上午9:30 -东部时间上午10点)的指数涨跌计算标普500指数在最后一小时交易中的指数涨跌(美国东部时间下午3点至4点)\n <b>今天的SMI=昨天的SMI-今天交易前半小时的市场收益或损失+交易日最后一小时的市场收益(或损失)。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>例如,让我们假设SMI昨天的价值是3000。标普500指数上午下跌55点,下午回升44点。SMI的最新值现在是3000 - (-55)+ (+44)= 3099 让我们看另一个例子。假设SMI昨天的值是3000。标准普尔指数上午上涨45点,下午上涨25点。</p>\n<p>那么SMI目前的最新值为3000 -45 + 25 = 2980。</p>\n<p><b>短线交易者如何使用“Smart Money Index”</b></p>\n<p>短线交易者可以通过两种方式使用SMI。首先,他们可以用它来确定股票的趋势。</p>\n<p><b>例如,如果股票一直处于上升趋势中,这个指标可以在趋势即将改变时提醒你。</b></p>\n<p><b>其次,他们还可以用它来确定背离,也就是说,看看市场趋势是否与SMI的方向是否相同。</b></p>\n<p>例如,如果股票价格下跌而SMI上涨,这通常是一个看涨信号,价格可能会走高。</p>\n<p>一般来说,如果市场下跌,而SMI没有下跌,那么该指标就被认为过于看涨。相比之下,如果市场反弹而指标落后,则被视为看跌信号。 不过,重要的是要明白,SMI并没有发出非常明确的信号,表明市场是看涨还是看跌。</p>\n<p>此外,没有固定的相对或绝对指数来显示趋势。 因此,交易者应该看指标相对于市场的动态变化。 这张图表显示了该指标的运行状态。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7918a2e60a1db52750251ac8cd520e8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"275\"><b>为什么使用SMI?</b></p>\n<p><b>SMI指标的目的是衡量专业和有经验的交易员在市场上做什么。</b></p>\n<p>这一指标表明,交易员应该在临近收盘时押注股市走向,因为这是“smart money”在做的事情;而在开盘时押注股市走向,这是“dumb money”在做的事情。就好比技术分析大多采用的是收盘价那样。</p>\n<p>在市场开盘时,也有大量的市场买盘和空头回补。</p>\n<p>聪明的投资者往往会等到最后,这些专业交易员比其他市场参与者更有优势,因为他们往往拥有最好的可用信息。</p>\n<p><b>因此,基本的策略是和早盘走势对赌,押注晚盘趋势。</b></p>\n<p><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>SMI通常是一条沿着价格移动的直线。</p>\n<p>正如前面提到的,这个指标很重要,因为它给出了市场的概述,并且在出现背离的情况下,它可以提供趋势逆转的迹象。</p>\n<p><b>但与其他指标不同的是,SMI并不发出何时做空或何时买入的信号。相反,它让你为近期的预期做好准备。</b></p>\n<p>因此,你应该经常把它和其他技术指标结合起来,比如相对强度指数(RSI),抛物线SAR和动量指标。</p>","source":"lsy1603977621793","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>在股市中,应该怎样发现并跟上“大资金”</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n在股市中,应该怎样发现并跟上“大资金”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-29 21:21 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uslXkYf0Av1r-vSG4pu_vA><strong>交易员说</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>股票市场的一些指标在市场的整体分析中起着重要的作用,因为指标反映了交易员的情绪。如果市场情绪积极,指标就会上升。\n日内交易者也可以根据股市指标制定他们的决策。\n一般来说,理解指标的组成和结构的细微差别对于做出所有类型的交易决策是至关重要的。\n在股票市场中,一个非常重要的技术指标是“Smart Money Index”,简称为“SMI”。\n该指标基于盘中价格,交易者通常用它来观察与主图中是否有差异,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uslXkYf0Av1r-vSG4pu_vA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uslXkYf0Av1r-vSG4pu_vA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199168825","content_text":"股票市场的一些指标在市场的整体分析中起着重要的作用,因为指标反映了交易员的情绪。如果市场情绪积极,指标就会上升。\n日内交易者也可以根据股市指标制定他们的决策。\n一般来说,理解指标的组成和结构的细微差别对于做出所有类型的交易决策是至关重要的。\n在股票市场中,一个非常重要的技术指标是“Smart Money Index”,简称为“SMI”。\n该指标基于盘中价格,交易者通常用它来观察与主图中是否有差异,确认市场趋势。\n那么,SMI到底是什么,它是如何使用的呢?\n什么是“Smart Money Index”?\n上世纪90年代,唐•海耶斯(Don Hayes)推广了“Smart Money Index”。它是一个技术指标,用于衡量美股市场中“大资金(smart money)”和“散户资金(dumb money)”的表现。\n在这种情况下,术语“smart”和“dumb”不一定与交易员的智力相关。相反,他们被用来区分那些预测(聪明)的交易者和那些反应较慢的交易者。\nSMI表明,短线交易者和投资者应该追随“大资金”,而不是“散户资金”。\n这一指标表明,专业交易者通常在一天结束时进入市场,这时交易受情绪的影响较小。\n这里的想法是,大多数交易者(受新闻驱动,情绪激动)在开市时进行交易,是因为隔夜的经济数据和新闻。 另一方面,更有经验的交易者会在收盘时进入市场,有机会评估市场表现。这一差异反映了这些“聪明”交易员的净交易量。\n在上面的案例中,我们可以看到在互联网泡沫破灭之前,大资金就开始从市场中流出。这是一个很好的方式来了解潜在的未来市场方向。\n如何计算“Smart Money Index”\n理论上,SMI可以计算任何股票市场或市场指数。但主流媒体经常引用的是道琼斯工业平均指数。 然而,由于标普500更能代表美国股市,今天我们讲着重计算标普500指数的SMI。\nSMI的计算方法是用前一日的SMI值减去开盘30分钟的指数涨跌,再加上交易最后一小时的指数变化。\n\n具体的计算如下:\n\n 计算标普500指数在前半小时(东部时间上午9:30 -东部时间上午10点)的指数涨跌计算标普500指数在最后一小时交易中的指数涨跌(美国东部时间下午3点至4点)\n 今天的SMI=昨天的SMI-今天交易前半小时的市场收益或损失+交易日最后一小时的市场收益(或损失)。\n\n例如,让我们假设SMI昨天的价值是3000。标普500指数上午下跌55点,下午回升44点。SMI的最新值现在是3000 - (-55)+ (+44)= 3099 让我们看另一个例子。假设SMI昨天的值是3000。标准普尔指数上午上涨45点,下午上涨25点。\n那么SMI目前的最新值为3000 -45 + 25 = 2980。\n短线交易者如何使用“Smart Money Index”\n短线交易者可以通过两种方式使用SMI。首先,他们可以用它来确定股票的趋势。\n例如,如果股票一直处于上升趋势中,这个指标可以在趋势即将改变时提醒你。\n其次,他们还可以用它来确定背离,也就是说,看看市场趋势是否与SMI的方向是否相同。\n例如,如果股票价格下跌而SMI上涨,这通常是一个看涨信号,价格可能会走高。\n一般来说,如果市场下跌,而SMI没有下跌,那么该指标就被认为过于看涨。相比之下,如果市场反弹而指标落后,则被视为看跌信号。 不过,重要的是要明白,SMI并没有发出非常明确的信号,表明市场是看涨还是看跌。\n此外,没有固定的相对或绝对指数来显示趋势。 因此,交易者应该看指标相对于市场的动态变化。 这张图表显示了该指标的运行状态。\n为什么使用SMI?\nSMI指标的目的是衡量专业和有经验的交易员在市场上做什么。\n这一指标表明,交易员应该在临近收盘时押注股市走向,因为这是“smart money”在做的事情;而在开盘时押注股市走向,这是“dumb money”在做的事情。就好比技术分析大多采用的是收盘价那样。\n在市场开盘时,也有大量的市场买盘和空头回补。\n聪明的投资者往往会等到最后,这些专业交易员比其他市场参与者更有优势,因为他们往往拥有最好的可用信息。\n因此,基本的策略是和早盘走势对赌,押注晚盘趋势。\n结论\nSMI通常是一条沿着价格移动的直线。\n正如前面提到的,这个指标很重要,因为它给出了市场的概述,并且在出现背离的情况下,它可以提供趋势逆转的迹象。\n但与其他指标不同的是,SMI并不发出何时做空或何时买入的信号。相反,它让你为近期的预期做好准备。\n因此,你应该经常把它和其他技术指标结合起来,比如相对强度指数(RSI),抛物线SAR和动量指标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344707207,"gmtCreate":1618441645409,"gmtModify":1634292976334,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🧐🧐","listText":"🧐🧐","text":"🧐🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344707207","repostId":"1163247183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163247183","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1618379686,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163247183?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163247183","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那","content":"<blockquote>\n “劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。</p>\n<p>那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。</p>\n<p><b>八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人失业率降至9.6%),鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。</b></p>\n<p><b>上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出,“复苏仍然不完整,不均衡”</b>,将维持QE规模,直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb9269b36146e907455c5636dc1bd7d\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标,显示当前健康状况好于2013年</p>\n<p>其中的态度转变表明,美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重,并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。</p>\n<p><b>就业是重中之重</b></p>\n<p>在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上,美联储这次选择了后者,这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。</p>\n<p>2013年,美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密,他们认为失业率降到一定程度(4.5%)会触发物价水平急剧上升;则反过来,为了不让通胀失控,就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。</p>\n<p>于是,当年失业率还在7%的时候,美联储就宣布减少购债,因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降,慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。</p>\n<p><b>但事实证明,通胀确实在升,却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下,但八年来,由于私营部门消费投资热情不足,通胀持续低于2%。</b></p>\n<p><b>路透分析师Howard Schneider评论,这可能让美联储认为,通胀总体上较弱,所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平,而不会有很大的通胀风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>根据美联储的预测,到年底,失业率将从目前的6%下降到4.5%,预计到今年夏天,每月将增加一百万就业人数。</b>美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万,远超预期,被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。</p>\n<p>不过,许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%,创下2018年8月来最高水平,虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应,但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。</p>\n<p>疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂,目前尚未完全恢复,近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头,汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善,线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。</p>\n<p>Columbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除,经济正在进行重新配置,我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>何时“取得实质性进展”?</b></p>\n<p>那么对于就业市场,怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”?</p>\n<p>鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法:如果能像3月那样增加就业,“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口,“那样就真正开始显示,向着我们的目标有了进展”。</p>\n<p><b>但另外,美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。</b></p>\n<p>3月一次美联储会议上,鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击,本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前,虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上,表现都优于2013年退出QE时期,<b>但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc5f0395bc553ddbb5eb9870f1c7080\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示,今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”,“<b>劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。</b>”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-04-14 13:54 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acda3093f2aff10e50f822317125a553","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163247183","content_text":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人失业率降至9.6%),鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。\n上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出,“复苏仍然不完整,不均衡”,将维持QE规模,直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。\n\n指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标,显示当前健康状况好于2013年\n其中的态度转变表明,美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重,并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。\n就业是重中之重\n在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上,美联储这次选择了后者,这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。\n2013年,美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密,他们认为失业率降到一定程度(4.5%)会触发物价水平急剧上升;则反过来,为了不让通胀失控,就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。\n于是,当年失业率还在7%的时候,美联储就宣布减少购债,因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降,慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。\n但事实证明,通胀确实在升,却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下,但八年来,由于私营部门消费投资热情不足,通胀持续低于2%。\n路透分析师Howard Schneider评论,这可能让美联储认为,通胀总体上较弱,所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平,而不会有很大的通胀风险。\n根据美联储的预测,到年底,失业率将从目前的6%下降到4.5%,预计到今年夏天,每月将增加一百万就业人数。美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万,远超预期,被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。\n不过,许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%,创下2018年8月来最高水平,虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应,但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。\n疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂,目前尚未完全恢复,近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头,汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善,线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。\nColumbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示:\n\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除,经济正在进行重新配置,我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n\n何时“取得实质性进展”?\n那么对于就业市场,怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”?\n鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法:如果能像3月那样增加就业,“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口,“那样就真正开始显示,向着我们的目标有了进展”。\n但另外,美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。\n3月一次美联储会议上,鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧:\n\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击,本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n\n目前,虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上,表现都优于2013年退出QE时期,但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。\n\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示,今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”,“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351488394,"gmtCreate":1616625888818,"gmtModify":1634524901536,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很有道理的样子","listText":"很有道理的样子","text":"很有道理的样子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351488394","repostId":"2121458286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125238630,"gmtCreate":1624674299120,"gmtModify":1631890555570,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] [强] ","listText":"[强] [强] ","text":"[强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125238630","repostId":"1169261469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362269305,"gmtCreate":1614643025507,"gmtModify":1703479193744,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好消息","listText":"好消息","text":"好消息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362269305","repostId":"1103499830","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103499830","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614613166,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103499830?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 23:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果在美国的所有门店恢复营业,为疫情爆发以来首次","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103499830","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"苹果公司:截至今日,苹果在美国的所有门店恢复营业,为2020年3月以来首次。截至发稿,苹果盘中涨超3%。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司:截至今日,苹果在美国的所有门店恢复营业,为2020年3月以来首次。</p><p>截至发稿,苹果盘中涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea5a7d138114d4a23fe39c16dd63fe07\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果在美国的所有门店恢复营业,为疫情爆发以来首次</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司:截至今日,苹果在美国的所有门店恢复营业,为2020年3月以来首次。</p><p>截至发稿,苹果盘中涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea5a7d138114d4a23fe39c16dd63fe07\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103499830","content_text":"苹果公司:截至今日,苹果在美国的所有门店恢复营业,为2020年3月以来首次。截至发稿,苹果盘中涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386485102,"gmtCreate":1613256124406,"gmtModify":1634554100737,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorIdStr":"3564398777411265"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛年大旺","listText":"牛年大旺","text":"牛年大旺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386485102","repostId":"1140942389","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140942389","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612233347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140942389?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-02 10:35","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"提醒:春节假期主要市场休市安排一览","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140942389","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"春节假期即将来临,敬请广大投资者留意,提前做好资金安排。$老虎证券$祝您及家人新春快乐,牛年大吉!2月11日(星期四)除夕上午开市,下午休市;2月12日(星期五)至2月15日(星期一)全天休市;2月11日(星期四)至2月17日(星期三)休市,2月18日(星期四)起照常开市。CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10:00提前休市。SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。","content":"<p>春节假期即将来临,敬请广大投资者留意,提前做好资金安排。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>祝您及家人新春快乐,牛年大吉!</p><p>春节期间各地股市休市安排如下:(均为当地时间)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>美股:</b></p><p>2月15日(星期一)因美国总统日全天休市。</p><p><b>港股:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)除夕上午开市,下午休市;</p><p>2月12日(星期五)至2月15日(星期一)全天休市;</p><p>2月16日(星期二)起照常开市。</p><p><b>A股:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)至2月17日(星期三)休市,2月18日(星期四)起照常开市。</p><p><b>沪、深股通:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)至2月17日(星期三)关闭;2月18日(星期四)起照常开通。</p><p><b>港股通:</b></p><p>2月9日(星期二)至2月17日(星期三)关闭服务,2月18日(星期四)起照常开通。</p><p><b>英股:</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>澳股:</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>新加坡市场:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)交易半日。</p><p>2月12日(星期五)全天休市。</p><p><b>期货市场:</b></p><p>HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12:30休市,个股期货于2月11日12:00休市;指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。</p><p>GME Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12:00(北京时间16日凌晨02:00)提前休市;活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。</p><p>CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10:00提前休市。</p><p>SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒:春节假期主要市场休市安排一览</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒:春节假期主要市场休市安排一览\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-02 10:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>春节假期即将来临,敬请广大投资者留意,提前做好资金安排。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>祝您及家人新春快乐,牛年大吉!</p><p>春节期间各地股市休市安排如下:(均为当地时间)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>美股:</b></p><p>2月15日(星期一)因美国总统日全天休市。</p><p><b>港股:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)除夕上午开市,下午休市;</p><p>2月12日(星期五)至2月15日(星期一)全天休市;</p><p>2月16日(星期二)起照常开市。</p><p><b>A股:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)至2月17日(星期三)休市,2月18日(星期四)起照常开市。</p><p><b>沪、深股通:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)至2月17日(星期三)关闭;2月18日(星期四)起照常开通。</p><p><b>港股通:</b></p><p>2月9日(星期二)至2月17日(星期三)关闭服务,2月18日(星期四)起照常开通。</p><p><b>英股:</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>澳股:</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>新加坡市场:</b></p><p>2月11日(星期四)交易半日。</p><p>2月12日(星期五)全天休市。</p><p><b>期货市场:</b></p><p>HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12:30休市,个股期货于2月11日12:00休市;指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。</p><p>GME Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12:00(北京时间16日凌晨02:00)提前休市;活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。</p><p>CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10:00提前休市。</p><p>SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f89c8af2a895e609af6985ff4ae3ab","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140942389","content_text":"春节假期即将来临,敬请广大投资者留意,提前做好资金安排。老虎证券祝您及家人新春快乐,牛年大吉!春节期间各地股市休市安排如下:(均为当地时间)美股:2月15日(星期一)因美国总统日全天休市。港股:2月11日(星期四)除夕上午开市,下午休市;2月12日(星期五)至2月15日(星期一)全天休市;2月16日(星期二)起照常开市。A股:2月11日(星期四)至2月17日(星期三)休市,2月18日(星期四)起照常开市。沪、深股通:2月11日(星期四)至2月17日(星期三)关闭;2月18日(星期四)起照常开通。港股通:2月9日(星期二)至2月17日(星期三)关闭服务,2月18日(星期四)起照常开通。英股:照常交易澳股:照常交易新加坡市场:2月11日(星期四)交易半日。2月12日(星期五)全天休市。期货市场:HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12:30休市,个股期货于2月11日12:00休市;指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。GME Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12:00(北京时间16日凌晨02:00)提前休市;活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。CBOE 下 VIX 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