ngieeeee的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-06-18

!!!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

oooo

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

comment awayyyy

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

🤟🏼

Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>

2021-06-23

!!!

Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-22

!!!

What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Tigerrrr

2021-06-27

Post !

2021-06-27

Send!

@小虎活动:【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金

2021-06-24

Legooooo

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","text":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ 戳我即可参与活动 \u0001如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。\u0001如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。\u0001 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab28db31a19b458d604a8bf02becddd3","width":"415","height":"125"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5227ebb594fe55b532c840acef147d7b","width":"415","height":"495"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121856707,"gmtCreate":1624459582009,"gmtModify":1634005795642,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"!!!&nbsp;","listText":"!!!&nbsp;","text":"!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121856707","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"EDU":0.9,"TAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129028516,"gmtCreate":1624346002635,"gmtModify":1634007461875,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger quest!&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger quest!&nbsp;","text":"Tiger quest!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129028516","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129021561,"gmtCreate":1624345947253,"gmtModify":1634007462820,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment awayyyy&nbsp;","listText":"comment awayyyy&nbsp;","text":"comment awayyyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129021561","repostId":"2145628031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129021325,"gmtCreate":1624345911867,"gmtModify":1634007463292,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"!!!&nbsp;","listText":"!!!&nbsp;","text":"!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129021325","repostId":"1112997031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112997031","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112997031?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112997031","media":"WSJ","summary":"Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, ","content":"<p>Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀正在上升，达到20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。当时，美联储的保罗·沃尔克扼杀了物价的疯狂上涨，最初对经济造成了沉重打击，但却迎来了股票和债券数十年的反复上涨。</blockquote></p><p> If today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.</p><p><blockquote>如果今天的后Covid-19大流行通胀被证明是粘性的，它会像沃尔克之前的几年一样，还是更像二战后更快乐的增长？这些时期为金融市场的表现提供了教训。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177e181236d406cfb6867135e123e647\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> After World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.</p><p><blockquote>第二次世界大战后，尽管经历了一轮又一轮的通货膨胀，股市仍表现良好。但这只持续到20世纪60年代中期。股票和国债的回报一直举步维艰，直到20世纪70年代通胀被压垮。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f556cbd944781f6e9f8861fd1307ed\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.</p><p><blockquote>Absolute Strategy Research首席投资策略师伊恩·哈尼特(Ian Harnett)表示，20世纪50年代股市表现良好的原因之一是，随着养老基金和其他机构首次购买股票，资金流入市场。这有助于压低所谓的股票风险溢价，该溢价衡量的是股票投资者因损失资金的风险而要求的相对于政府债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1fa93e07ae8e10df683b24487fe7102\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代，风险溢价再次上升，当通货膨胀发生时，股票表现不佳。为什么会发生这种情况的线索在经济背景的其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> After the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises<b>.</b>Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.</p><p><blockquote>战后出现了几轮通货膨胀，但实体经济增长强劲，足以跟上物价上涨的步伐<b>.</b>用于战争的资源被重新投入到和平时期的生产中。然后从20世纪60年代中期开始，实际增长和通货膨胀的影响之间出现了差距。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13efc1b5bab65fd78a4b1b3cfab31a20\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Richard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>纽约大学斯特恩分校经济学名誉教授理查德·西拉（Richard Sylla）撰写了《利率史》，他将战后通胀描述为战时价格管制解除后价格赶上现实。</blockquote></p><p> Things changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪60年代情况发生了变化。政府在越南战争上的巨额支出和林登·约翰逊总统的伟大社会计划导致了低利率。货币供应强劲增长，西拉·评级先生的大通货膨胀开始了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f33fc222d7260e35aee86c0a1f43c\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.</p><p><blockquote>经济过热。首先，产出缺口（衡量经济生产足够商品相对于消费需求的能力）随着需求超过供应而变为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Then, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.</p><p><blockquote>然后，在20世纪60年代末，过剩的需求变成了供过于求的长期趋势。随着通货膨胀的上升，劳动力增长，人们要求更高的工资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2efcdabd4bc53c9c4d15af67b30ec4b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美联储变得更受政治影响：Sylla先生说，美联储主席Arthur Burns与Richard Nixon密切合作，帮助他连任。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.</p><p><blockquote>1971年尼克松总统暂停美元兑换黄金后，美元的价值变得不稳定。这为布雷顿森林协议敲响了丧钟，该协议将国际货币相互挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> A more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.</p><p><blockquote>美元波动加剧导致进口价格上涨，从而使通胀更加波动和不确定。不确定性对投资者不利，这也是股票风险溢价再次上升以及股市回报受到影响的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Then came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.</p><p><blockquote>然后是第一次油价冲击，当时许多阿拉伯国家阻止了对美国的出口，以抗议美国对以色列的支持。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24170234a713529c1e8dafe7f75b6d0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Where are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天在哪里？我们的股票风险溢价较低，使得股票没有太多的不确定性缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> The government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.</p><p><blockquote>政府决心刺激经济，降低失业率。但与20世纪60年代中期不同的是，产出缺口尚未缩小。美联储的作用是关键。它承诺让经济过热，以实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> Overheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.</p><p><blockquote>过热似乎是一个不确定的前景，特别是如果最近货币供应的快速增长迅速修正到战后低得多的水平。</blockquote></p><p> One place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.</p><p><blockquote>投资者过去转向的一个领域是黄金等贵金属。在20世纪70年代，这种黄色金属提供了非常强劲的通胀调整后回报。在战后时期，当黄金交易被禁止时，这不是一个因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfebaee0355d857a22ed1b414ab12ad\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Within the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco.&nbsp;Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.</p><p><blockquote>在股票市场中，周期性行业的公司，如化工、矿业公司或航空公司，在20世纪70年代末和80年代初的表现优于防御性行业的公司，如公用事业或肥皂、食品和烟草等消费品。自那以后，如果将科技公司排除在外，周期性股票就表现不佳。避开科技公司，或者至少是那些依靠低利率使其承诺的未来收益在今天看起来更有价值的公司，可能是关键。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde91b59c249f4d9f22c6f068f17b2\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 14:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀正在上升，达到20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。当时，美联储的保罗·沃尔克扼杀了物价的疯狂上涨，最初对经济造成了沉重打击，但却迎来了股票和债券数十年的反复上涨。</blockquote></p><p> If today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.</p><p><blockquote>如果今天的后Covid-19大流行通胀被证明是粘性的，它会像沃尔克之前的几年一样，还是更像二战后更快乐的增长？这些时期为金融市场的表现提供了教训。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177e181236d406cfb6867135e123e647\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> After World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.</p><p><blockquote>第二次世界大战后，尽管经历了一轮又一轮的通货膨胀，股市仍表现良好。但这只持续到20世纪60年代中期。股票和国债的回报一直举步维艰，直到20世纪70年代通胀被压垮。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f556cbd944781f6e9f8861fd1307ed\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.</p><p><blockquote>Absolute Strategy Research首席投资策略师伊恩·哈尼特(Ian Harnett)表示，20世纪50年代股市表现良好的原因之一是，随着养老基金和其他机构首次购买股票，资金流入市场。这有助于压低所谓的股票风险溢价，该溢价衡量的是股票投资者因损失资金的风险而要求的相对于政府债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1fa93e07ae8e10df683b24487fe7102\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代，风险溢价再次上升，当通货膨胀发生时，股票表现不佳。为什么会发生这种情况的线索在经济背景的其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> After the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises<b>.</b>Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.</p><p><blockquote>战后出现了几轮通货膨胀，但实体经济增长强劲，足以跟上物价上涨的步伐<b>.</b>用于战争的资源被重新投入到和平时期的生产中。然后从20世纪60年代中期开始，实际增长和通货膨胀的影响之间出现了差距。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13efc1b5bab65fd78a4b1b3cfab31a20\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Richard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>纽约大学斯特恩分校经济学名誉教授理查德·西拉（Richard Sylla）撰写了《利率史》，他将战后通胀描述为战时价格管制解除后价格赶上现实。</blockquote></p><p> Things changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪60年代情况发生了变化。政府在越南战争上的巨额支出和林登·约翰逊总统的伟大社会计划导致了低利率。货币供应强劲增长，西拉·评级先生的大通货膨胀开始了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f33fc222d7260e35aee86c0a1f43c\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.</p><p><blockquote>经济过热。首先，产出缺口（衡量经济生产足够商品相对于消费需求的能力）随着需求超过供应而变为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Then, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.</p><p><blockquote>然后，在20世纪60年代末，过剩的需求变成了供过于求的长期趋势。随着通货膨胀的上升，劳动力增长，人们要求更高的工资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2efcdabd4bc53c9c4d15af67b30ec4b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美联储变得更受政治影响：Sylla先生说，美联储主席Arthur Burns与Richard Nixon密切合作，帮助他连任。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.</p><p><blockquote>1971年尼克松总统暂停美元兑换黄金后，美元的价值变得不稳定。这为布雷顿森林协议敲响了丧钟，该协议将国际货币相互挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> A more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.</p><p><blockquote>美元波动加剧导致进口价格上涨，从而使通胀更加波动和不确定。不确定性对投资者不利，这也是股票风险溢价再次上升以及股市回报受到影响的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Then came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.</p><p><blockquote>然后是第一次油价冲击，当时许多阿拉伯国家阻止了对美国的出口，以抗议美国对以色列的支持。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24170234a713529c1e8dafe7f75b6d0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Where are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天在哪里？我们的股票风险溢价较低，使得股票没有太多的不确定性缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> The government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.</p><p><blockquote>政府决心刺激经济，降低失业率。但与20世纪60年代中期不同的是，产出缺口尚未缩小。美联储的作用是关键。它承诺让经济过热，以实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> Overheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.</p><p><blockquote>过热似乎是一个不确定的前景，特别是如果最近货币供应的快速增长迅速修正到战后低得多的水平。</blockquote></p><p> One place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.</p><p><blockquote>投资者过去转向的一个领域是黄金等贵金属。在20世纪70年代，这种黄色金属提供了非常强劲的通胀调整后回报。在战后时期，当黄金交易被禁止时，这不是一个因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfebaee0355d857a22ed1b414ab12ad\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Within the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco.&nbsp;Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.</p><p><blockquote>在股票市场中，周期性行业的公司，如化工、矿业公司或航空公司，在20世纪70年代末和80年代初的表现优于防御性行业的公司，如公用事业或肥皂、食品和烟草等消费品。自那以后，如果将科技公司排除在外，周期性股票就表现不佳。避开科技公司，或者至少是那些依靠低利率使其承诺的未来收益在今天看起来更有价值的公司，可能是关键。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde91b59c249f4d9f22c6f068f17b2\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-history-of-inflation-11624263340?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-history-of-inflation-11624263340?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112997031","content_text":"Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.\nIf today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.\n\nAfter World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.\n\nOne reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.\n\nIn the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.\nAfter the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises.Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.\n\nRichard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.\nThings changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.\n\nThe economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.\nThen, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.\n\nAt the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.\nThe dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.\nA more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.\nThen came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.\n\nWhere are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.\nThe government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.\nOverheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.\nOne place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.\n\nWithin the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco. Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129023423,"gmtCreate":1624345887762,"gmtModify":1634007463659,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oooo","listText":"oooo","text":"oooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129023423","repostId":"1139414035","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167349189,"gmtCreate":1624249152841,"gmtModify":1634008895167,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"!!!","listText":"!!!","text":"!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167349189","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1631884627596,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金","htmlText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","text":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ 戳我即可参与活动 \u0001如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。\u0001如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。\u0001 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab28db31a19b458d604a8bf02becddd3","width":"415","height":"125"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5227ebb594fe55b532c840acef147d7b","width":"415","height":"495"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167357834,"gmtCreate":1624249097628,"gmtModify":1634008896909,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"!! Another week&nbsp;","listText":"!! Another week&nbsp;","text":"!! Another week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167357834","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167355240,"gmtCreate":1624249030880,"gmtModify":1634008898719,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interestinggg&nbsp;","listText":"Interestinggg&nbsp;","text":"Interestinggg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167355240","repostId":"1153988423","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153988423","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242877,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153988423?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:34","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China's first REITs make strong debut<blockquote>国内首单REITs强势亮相</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153988423","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s first batch of REITs debuted on Monday with strong initial gains, as th","content":"<p>SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s first batch of REITs debuted on Monday with strong initial gains, as the nine real estate investment trusts drew interest from Chinese retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>上海（路透社）-中国首批房地产投资信托基金周一首次亮相，最初涨幅强劲，九只房地产投资信托基金吸引了中国散户投资者的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> The Bosera CMSK Industrial Park fund led the pack with a gain of roughly 20% in early morning trade, while AVIC Shougang Biomass fund jumped over 16%.</p><p><blockquote>博时CMSK产业园基金早盘涨幅约20%，中航首钢生物质基金涨幅超过16%。</blockquote></p><p> The PingAn Guangzhou-Heyuan Expressway Fund gained the least, rising roughly 1%.</p><p><blockquote>平安广合高速基金涨幅最小，大致涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> China is launching a public REITs market to channel private money into infrastructure projectshere, ranging from toll ways to sewage plants, to ease debt burdens on local governments. REITs trade like stocks but offer stable cash dividends like bonds.</p><p><blockquote>中国正在启动公共房地产投资信托基金市场，将私人资金引入从收费公路到污水处理厂的基础设施项目，以减轻地方政府的债务负担。房地产投资信托基金像股票一样交易，但像债券一样提供稳定的现金股息。</blockquote></p><p> But limited supply of the instruments initially and a sense of novelty are attracting retail interest in REITs, typically favoured by long-term, institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>但最初这些工具的有限供应和新奇感正在吸引散户对房地产投资信托基金的兴趣，而房地产投资信托基金通常受到长期机构投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> All the nine newly-listed REITs - five in Shanghai and four in Shenzhen - opened higher on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>周一，九只新上市的房地产投资信托基金（五只在上海，四只在深圳）全部高开。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's first REITs make strong debut<blockquote>国内首单REITs强势亮相</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's first REITs make strong debut<blockquote>国内首单REITs强势亮相</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s first batch of REITs debuted on Monday with strong initial gains, as the nine real estate investment trusts drew interest from Chinese retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>上海（路透社）-中国首批房地产投资信托基金周一首次亮相，最初涨幅强劲，九只房地产投资信托基金吸引了中国散户投资者的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> The Bosera CMSK Industrial Park fund led the pack with a gain of roughly 20% in early morning trade, while AVIC Shougang Biomass fund jumped over 16%.</p><p><blockquote>博时CMSK产业园基金早盘涨幅约20%，中航首钢生物质基金涨幅超过16%。</blockquote></p><p> The PingAn Guangzhou-Heyuan Expressway Fund gained the least, rising roughly 1%.</p><p><blockquote>平安广合高速基金涨幅最小，大致涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> China is launching a public REITs market to channel private money into infrastructure projectshere, ranging from toll ways to sewage plants, to ease debt burdens on local governments. REITs trade like stocks but offer stable cash dividends like bonds.</p><p><blockquote>中国正在启动公共房地产投资信托基金市场，将私人资金引入从收费公路到污水处理厂的基础设施项目，以减轻地方政府的债务负担。房地产投资信托基金像股票一样交易，但像债券一样提供稳定的现金股息。</blockquote></p><p> But limited supply of the instruments initially and a sense of novelty are attracting retail interest in REITs, typically favoured by long-term, institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>但最初这些工具的有限供应和新奇感正在吸引散户对房地产投资信托基金的兴趣，而房地产投资信托基金通常受到长期机构投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> All the nine newly-listed REITs - five in Shanghai and four in Shenzhen - opened higher on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>周一，九只新上市的房地产投资信托基金（五只在上海，四只在深圳）全部高开。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/china-reits-debut/chinas-first-reits-make-strong-debut-idUSL3N2O208M\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/china-reits-debut/chinas-first-reits-make-strong-debut-idUSL3N2O208M","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153988423","content_text":"SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s first batch of REITs debuted on Monday with strong initial gains, as the nine real estate investment trusts drew interest from Chinese retail investors.\nThe Bosera CMSK Industrial Park fund led the pack with a gain of roughly 20% in early morning trade, while AVIC Shougang Biomass fund jumped over 16%.\nThe PingAn Guangzhou-Heyuan Expressway Fund gained the least, rising roughly 1%.\nChina is launching a public REITs market to channel private money into infrastructure projectshere, ranging from toll ways to sewage plants, to ease debt burdens on local governments. REITs trade like stocks but offer stable cash dividends like bonds.\nBut limited supply of the instruments initially and a sense of novelty are attracting retail interest in REITs, typically favoured by long-term, institutional investors.\nAll the nine newly-listed REITs - five in Shanghai and four in Shenzhen - opened higher on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167352505,"gmtCreate":1624249008607,"gmtModify":1634008899434,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤟🏼","listText":"🤟🏼","text":"🤟🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167352505","repostId":"1134946846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134946846","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624244425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134946846?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134946846","media":"FoxBusiness","summary":"Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares t","content":"<p>Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，随着美联储准备退出大流行期间采取的紧急措施，华尔街今年最受欢迎的交易正面临一场“完美风暴”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.</p><p><blockquote>美联储结束疫情宽松货币时代的决定给市场带来了冲击波，并使道琼斯工业平均指数有望迎来自1月份以来最糟糕的一周。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>周四，即消息公布后的第二天，与防御性股票相比，周期性股票遭遇了一年多来最糟糕的一天，因为投资者担心央行的缩减可能会破坏经济。周期性行业包括工业、能源和金融等行业，其表现与经济的波动有关。</blockquote></p><p> A \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队写道，“周期性调整正在进行中”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，美联储本周的鹰派转变是“坏消息”，并加剧了头寸过度、中国紧缩以及美国额外财政刺激希望消退所带来的麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三将基准利率维持在接近零的水平，并维持每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，但将首次加息的预期从2024年上调至2023年。更多成员（但不是大多数）表示，首次加息可能会在2022年发生。央行还调侃结束资产购买计划，但没有给出何时开始缩减规模的任何细节。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.</p><p><blockquote>美联储去年将利率降至接近零的水平，并承诺购买无限量的资产，以支持美国经济度过二战后最严重的经济放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.</p><p><blockquote>作为对美联储紧缩计划的回应，10年期债券收益率周五跌至1.45%。3月31日触及1.75%的高点。</blockquote></p><p> David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&amp;P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenberg Research首席经济学家兼策略师David Rosenberg表示，经利率调整后，标普500比其内在价值高出20%。</blockquote></p><p> He believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，投资者忽视实际利率或经通胀调整后的利率向股市发出的信号是愚蠢的。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overweighting&nbsp;defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit&nbsp;by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same&nbsp;time, if the message from real rates proves&nbsp;prescient, investors will&nbsp;be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“增持往往受益于GDP增长急剧放缓的防御性行业和长期增长行业是一个合理的策略。”“与此同时，如果实际利率的信息被证明是有先见之明的，那么投资者将被强烈建议削减周期性敞口。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610518597439","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FoxBusiness</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，随着美联储准备退出大流行期间采取的紧急措施，华尔街今年最受欢迎的交易正面临一场“完美风暴”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.</p><p><blockquote>美联储结束疫情宽松货币时代的决定给市场带来了冲击波，并使道琼斯工业平均指数有望迎来自1月份以来最糟糕的一周。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>周四，即消息公布后的第二天，与防御性股票相比，周期性股票遭遇了一年多来最糟糕的一天，因为投资者担心央行的缩减可能会破坏经济。周期性行业包括工业、能源和金融等行业，其表现与经济的波动有关。</blockquote></p><p> A \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队写道，“周期性调整正在进行中”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，美联储本周的鹰派转变是“坏消息”，并加剧了头寸过度、中国紧缩以及美国额外财政刺激希望消退所带来的麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三将基准利率维持在接近零的水平，并维持每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，但将首次加息的预期从2024年上调至2023年。更多成员（但不是大多数）表示，首次加息可能会在2022年发生。央行还调侃结束资产购买计划，但没有给出何时开始缩减规模的任何细节。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.</p><p><blockquote>美联储去年将利率降至接近零的水平，并承诺购买无限量的资产，以支持美国经济度过二战后最严重的经济放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.</p><p><blockquote>作为对美联储紧缩计划的回应，10年期债券收益率周五跌至1.45%。3月31日触及1.75%的高点。</blockquote></p><p> David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&amp;P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenberg Research首席经济学家兼策略师David Rosenberg表示，经利率调整后，标普500比其内在价值高出20%。</blockquote></p><p> He believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，投资者忽视实际利率或经通胀调整后的利率向股市发出的信号是愚蠢的。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overweighting&nbsp;defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit&nbsp;by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same&nbsp;time, if the message from real rates proves&nbsp;prescient, investors will&nbsp;be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“增持往往受益于GDP增长急剧放缓的防御性行业和长期增长行业是一个合理的策略。”“与此同时，如果实际利率的信息被证明是有先见之明的，那么投资者将被强烈建议削减周期性敞口。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-most-popular-trade-being-turned-upside-down\">FoxBusiness</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-most-popular-trade-being-turned-upside-down","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134946846","content_text":"Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.\nThe Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.\nCyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.\nA \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.\nHe noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.\nThe Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.\nThe Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.\nThe yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.\nDavid Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.\nHe believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.\n\"Overweighting defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same time, if the message from real rates proves prescient, investors will be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165703972,"gmtCreate":1624156489896,"gmtModify":1634010138401,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165703972","repostId":"1158784745","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165476879,"gmtCreate":1624156210991,"gmtModify":1634010144683,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"leggoooo","listText":"leggoooo","text":"leggoooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165476879","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1631884627596,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金","htmlText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","text":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ 戳我即可参与活动 \u0001如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。\u0001如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。\u0001 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 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<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","text":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ 戳我即可参与活动 \u0001如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。\u0001如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。\u0001 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab28db31a19b458d604a8bf02becddd3","width":"415","height":"125"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5227ebb594fe55b532c840acef147d7b","width":"415","height":"495"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166937449,"gmtCreate":1623987632981,"gmtModify":1634024553769,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564567844038063","idStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hmm&nbsp;","listText":"hmm&nbsp;","text":"hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166937449","repostId":"1125063557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125063557","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623980497,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125063557?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:41","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong: Shares kick off on front foot on Friday<blockquote>香港：周五股市开盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125063557","media":"AFP","summary":"Hong Kong stocks opened with slight gains Friday morning, extending the previous day's advances, as ","content":"<p>Hong Kong stocks opened with slight gains Friday morning, extending the previous day's advances, as traders try to gauge when the Federal Reserve will start tapering its monetary policy after officials brought forward their forecast for lifting interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市周五上午开盘小幅上涨，延续了前一天的涨幅，在官员们提出加息预测后，交易员试图判断美联储何时开始缩减货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index edged up 0.1 per cent, or 27.45 points, to 28,586.04.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数小幅上涨0.1%，即27.45点，至28,586.04点。</blockquote></p><p> The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.1 per cent, or 5.11 points, to 3,520.50, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange rose 0.1 per cent, or 3.36 points, to 2,362.76.</p><p><blockquote>基准的上证综合指数下跌0.1%，即5.11点，至3520.50点；中国第二交易所的深圳综合指数上涨0.1%，即3.36点，至2362.76点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605843958005","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong: Shares kick off on front foot on Friday<blockquote>香港：周五股市开盘</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong: Shares kick off on front foot on Friday<blockquote>香港：周五股市开盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stocks opened with slight gains Friday morning, extending the previous day's advances, as traders try to gauge when the Federal Reserve will start tapering its monetary policy after officials brought forward their forecast for lifting interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市周五上午开盘小幅上涨，延续了前一天的涨幅，在官员们提出加息预测后，交易员试图判断美联储何时开始缩减货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index edged up 0.1 per cent, or 27.45 points, to 28,586.04.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数小幅上涨0.1%，即27.45点，至28,586.04点。</blockquote></p><p> The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.1 per cent, or 5.11 points, to 3,520.50, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange rose 0.1 per cent, or 3.36 points, to 2,362.76.</p><p><blockquote>基准的上证综合指数下跌0.1%，即5.11点，至3520.50点；中国第二交易所的深圳综合指数上涨0.1%，即3.36点，至2362.76点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-kick-off-on-front-foot-on-friday\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-kick-off-on-front-foot-on-friday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125063557","content_text":"Hong Kong stocks opened with slight gains Friday morning, extending the previous day's advances, as traders try to gauge when the Federal Reserve will start tapering its monetary policy after officials brought forward their forecast for lifting interest rates.\nThe Hang Seng Index edged up 0.1 per cent, or 27.45 points, to 28,586.04.\nThe benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.1 per cent, or 5.11 points, to 3,520.50, while the Shenzhen Composite 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awayyyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129021561","repostId":"2145628031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167352505,"gmtCreate":1624249008607,"gmtModify":1634008899434,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564567844038063","authorIdStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤟🏼","listText":"🤟🏼","text":"🤟🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167352505","repostId":"1134946846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134946846","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624244425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134946846?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134946846","media":"FoxBusiness","summary":"Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares t","content":"<p>Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，随着美联储准备退出大流行期间采取的紧急措施，华尔街今年最受欢迎的交易正面临一场“完美风暴”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.</p><p><blockquote>美联储结束疫情宽松货币时代的决定给市场带来了冲击波，并使道琼斯工业平均指数有望迎来自1月份以来最糟糕的一周。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>周四，即消息公布后的第二天，与防御性股票相比，周期性股票遭遇了一年多来最糟糕的一天，因为投资者担心央行的缩减可能会破坏经济。周期性行业包括工业、能源和金融等行业，其表现与经济的波动有关。</blockquote></p><p> A \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队写道，“周期性调整正在进行中”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，美联储本周的鹰派转变是“坏消息”，并加剧了头寸过度、中国紧缩以及美国额外财政刺激希望消退所带来的麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三将基准利率维持在接近零的水平，并维持每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，但将首次加息的预期从2024年上调至2023年。更多成员（但不是大多数）表示，首次加息可能会在2022年发生。央行还调侃结束资产购买计划，但没有给出何时开始缩减规模的任何细节。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.</p><p><blockquote>美联储去年将利率降至接近零的水平，并承诺购买无限量的资产，以支持美国经济度过二战后最严重的经济放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.</p><p><blockquote>作为对美联储紧缩计划的回应，10年期债券收益率周五跌至1.45%。3月31日触及1.75%的高点。</blockquote></p><p> David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&amp;P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenberg Research首席经济学家兼策略师David Rosenberg表示，经利率调整后，标普500比其内在价值高出20%。</blockquote></p><p> He believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，投资者忽视实际利率或经通胀调整后的利率向股市发出的信号是愚蠢的。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overweighting&nbsp;defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit&nbsp;by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same&nbsp;time, if the message from real rates proves&nbsp;prescient, investors will&nbsp;be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“增持往往受益于GDP增长急剧放缓的防御性行业和长期增长行业是一个合理的策略。”“与此同时，如果实际利率的信息被证明是有先见之明的，那么投资者将被强烈建议削减周期性敞口。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610518597439","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FoxBusiness</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，随着美联储准备退出大流行期间采取的紧急措施，华尔街今年最受欢迎的交易正面临一场“完美风暴”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.</p><p><blockquote>美联储结束疫情宽松货币时代的决定给市场带来了冲击波，并使道琼斯工业平均指数有望迎来自1月份以来最糟糕的一周。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>周四，即消息公布后的第二天，与防御性股票相比，周期性股票遭遇了一年多来最糟糕的一天，因为投资者担心央行的缩减可能会破坏经济。周期性行业包括工业、能源和金融等行业，其表现与经济的波动有关。</blockquote></p><p> A \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队写道，“周期性调整正在进行中”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，美联储本周的鹰派转变是“坏消息”，并加剧了头寸过度、中国紧缩以及美国额外财政刺激希望消退所带来的麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三将基准利率维持在接近零的水平，并维持每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，但将首次加息的预期从2024年上调至2023年。更多成员（但不是大多数）表示，首次加息可能会在2022年发生。央行还调侃结束资产购买计划，但没有给出何时开始缩减规模的任何细节。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.</p><p><blockquote>美联储去年将利率降至接近零的水平，并承诺购买无限量的资产，以支持美国经济度过二战后最严重的经济放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.</p><p><blockquote>作为对美联储紧缩计划的回应，10年期债券收益率周五跌至1.45%。3月31日触及1.75%的高点。</blockquote></p><p> David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&amp;P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenberg Research首席经济学家兼策略师David Rosenberg表示，经利率调整后，标普500比其内在价值高出20%。</blockquote></p><p> He believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，投资者忽视实际利率或经通胀调整后的利率向股市发出的信号是愚蠢的。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overweighting&nbsp;defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit&nbsp;by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same&nbsp;time, if the message from real rates proves&nbsp;prescient, investors will&nbsp;be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“增持往往受益于GDP增长急剧放缓的防御性行业和长期增长行业是一个合理的策略。”“与此同时，如果实际利率的信息被证明是有先见之明的，那么投资者将被强烈建议削减周期性敞口。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-most-popular-trade-being-turned-upside-down\">FoxBusiness</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-most-popular-trade-being-turned-upside-down","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134946846","content_text":"Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.\nThe Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.\nCyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.\nA \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.\nHe noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.\nThe Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.\nThe Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.\nThe yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.\nDavid Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.\nHe believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.\n\"Overweighting defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same time, if the message from real rates proves prescient, investors will be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121856707,"gmtCreate":1624459582009,"gmtModify":1634005795642,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564567844038063","authorIdStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"!!!&nbsp;","listText":"!!!&nbsp;","text":"!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121856707","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"EDU":0.9,"TAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129021325,"gmtCreate":1624345911867,"gmtModify":1634007463292,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564567844038063","authorIdStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"!!!&nbsp;","listText":"!!!&nbsp;","text":"!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129021325","repostId":"1112997031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112997031","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112997031?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112997031","media":"WSJ","summary":"Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, ","content":"<p>Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀正在上升，达到20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。当时，美联储的保罗·沃尔克扼杀了物价的疯狂上涨，最初对经济造成了沉重打击，但却迎来了股票和债券数十年的反复上涨。</blockquote></p><p> If today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.</p><p><blockquote>如果今天的后Covid-19大流行通胀被证明是粘性的，它会像沃尔克之前的几年一样，还是更像二战后更快乐的增长？这些时期为金融市场的表现提供了教训。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177e181236d406cfb6867135e123e647\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> After World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.</p><p><blockquote>第二次世界大战后，尽管经历了一轮又一轮的通货膨胀，股市仍表现良好。但这只持续到20世纪60年代中期。股票和国债的回报一直举步维艰，直到20世纪70年代通胀被压垮。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f556cbd944781f6e9f8861fd1307ed\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.</p><p><blockquote>Absolute Strategy Research首席投资策略师伊恩·哈尼特(Ian Harnett)表示，20世纪50年代股市表现良好的原因之一是，随着养老基金和其他机构首次购买股票，资金流入市场。这有助于压低所谓的股票风险溢价，该溢价衡量的是股票投资者因损失资金的风险而要求的相对于政府债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1fa93e07ae8e10df683b24487fe7102\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代，风险溢价再次上升，当通货膨胀发生时，股票表现不佳。为什么会发生这种情况的线索在经济背景的其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> After the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises<b>.</b>Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.</p><p><blockquote>战后出现了几轮通货膨胀，但实体经济增长强劲，足以跟上物价上涨的步伐<b>.</b>用于战争的资源被重新投入到和平时期的生产中。然后从20世纪60年代中期开始，实际增长和通货膨胀的影响之间出现了差距。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13efc1b5bab65fd78a4b1b3cfab31a20\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Richard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>纽约大学斯特恩分校经济学名誉教授理查德·西拉（Richard Sylla）撰写了《利率史》，他将战后通胀描述为战时价格管制解除后价格赶上现实。</blockquote></p><p> Things changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪60年代情况发生了变化。政府在越南战争上的巨额支出和林登·约翰逊总统的伟大社会计划导致了低利率。货币供应强劲增长，西拉·评级先生的大通货膨胀开始了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f33fc222d7260e35aee86c0a1f43c\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.</p><p><blockquote>经济过热。首先，产出缺口（衡量经济生产足够商品相对于消费需求的能力）随着需求超过供应而变为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Then, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.</p><p><blockquote>然后，在20世纪60年代末，过剩的需求变成了供过于求的长期趋势。随着通货膨胀的上升，劳动力增长，人们要求更高的工资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2efcdabd4bc53c9c4d15af67b30ec4b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美联储变得更受政治影响：Sylla先生说，美联储主席Arthur Burns与Richard Nixon密切合作，帮助他连任。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.</p><p><blockquote>1971年尼克松总统暂停美元兑换黄金后，美元的价值变得不稳定。这为布雷顿森林协议敲响了丧钟，该协议将国际货币相互挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> A more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.</p><p><blockquote>美元波动加剧导致进口价格上涨，从而使通胀更加波动和不确定。不确定性对投资者不利，这也是股票风险溢价再次上升以及股市回报受到影响的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Then came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.</p><p><blockquote>然后是第一次油价冲击，当时许多阿拉伯国家阻止了对美国的出口，以抗议美国对以色列的支持。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24170234a713529c1e8dafe7f75b6d0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Where are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天在哪里？我们的股票风险溢价较低，使得股票没有太多的不确定性缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> The government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.</p><p><blockquote>政府决心刺激经济，降低失业率。但与20世纪60年代中期不同的是，产出缺口尚未缩小。美联储的作用是关键。它承诺让经济过热，以实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> Overheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.</p><p><blockquote>过热似乎是一个不确定的前景，特别是如果最近货币供应的快速增长迅速修正到战后低得多的水平。</blockquote></p><p> One place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.</p><p><blockquote>投资者过去转向的一个领域是黄金等贵金属。在20世纪70年代，这种黄色金属提供了非常强劲的通胀调整后回报。在战后时期，当黄金交易被禁止时，这不是一个因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfebaee0355d857a22ed1b414ab12ad\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Within the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco.&nbsp;Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.</p><p><blockquote>在股票市场中，周期性行业的公司，如化工、矿业公司或航空公司，在20世纪70年代末和80年代初的表现优于防御性行业的公司，如公用事业或肥皂、食品和烟草等消费品。自那以后，如果将科技公司排除在外，周期性股票就表现不佳。避开科技公司，或者至少是那些依靠低利率使其承诺的未来收益在今天看起来更有价值的公司，可能是关键。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde91b59c249f4d9f22c6f068f17b2\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 14:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀正在上升，达到20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。当时，美联储的保罗·沃尔克扼杀了物价的疯狂上涨，最初对经济造成了沉重打击，但却迎来了股票和债券数十年的反复上涨。</blockquote></p><p> If today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.</p><p><blockquote>如果今天的后Covid-19大流行通胀被证明是粘性的，它会像沃尔克之前的几年一样，还是更像二战后更快乐的增长？这些时期为金融市场的表现提供了教训。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177e181236d406cfb6867135e123e647\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> After World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.</p><p><blockquote>第二次世界大战后，尽管经历了一轮又一轮的通货膨胀，股市仍表现良好。但这只持续到20世纪60年代中期。股票和国债的回报一直举步维艰，直到20世纪70年代通胀被压垮。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f556cbd944781f6e9f8861fd1307ed\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.</p><p><blockquote>Absolute Strategy Research首席投资策略师伊恩·哈尼特(Ian Harnett)表示，20世纪50年代股市表现良好的原因之一是，随着养老基金和其他机构首次购买股票，资金流入市场。这有助于压低所谓的股票风险溢价，该溢价衡量的是股票投资者因损失资金的风险而要求的相对于政府债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1fa93e07ae8e10df683b24487fe7102\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代，风险溢价再次上升，当通货膨胀发生时，股票表现不佳。为什么会发生这种情况的线索在经济背景的其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> After the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises<b>.</b>Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.</p><p><blockquote>战后出现了几轮通货膨胀，但实体经济增长强劲，足以跟上物价上涨的步伐<b>.</b>用于战争的资源被重新投入到和平时期的生产中。然后从20世纪60年代中期开始，实际增长和通货膨胀的影响之间出现了差距。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13efc1b5bab65fd78a4b1b3cfab31a20\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Richard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>纽约大学斯特恩分校经济学名誉教授理查德·西拉（Richard Sylla）撰写了《利率史》，他将战后通胀描述为战时价格管制解除后价格赶上现实。</blockquote></p><p> Things changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪60年代情况发生了变化。政府在越南战争上的巨额支出和林登·约翰逊总统的伟大社会计划导致了低利率。货币供应强劲增长，西拉·评级先生的大通货膨胀开始了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f33fc222d7260e35aee86c0a1f43c\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.</p><p><blockquote>经济过热。首先，产出缺口（衡量经济生产足够商品相对于消费需求的能力）随着需求超过供应而变为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Then, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.</p><p><blockquote>然后，在20世纪60年代末，过剩的需求变成了供过于求的长期趋势。随着通货膨胀的上升，劳动力增长，人们要求更高的工资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2efcdabd4bc53c9c4d15af67b30ec4b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美联储变得更受政治影响：Sylla先生说，美联储主席Arthur Burns与Richard Nixon密切合作，帮助他连任。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.</p><p><blockquote>1971年尼克松总统暂停美元兑换黄金后，美元的价值变得不稳定。这为布雷顿森林协议敲响了丧钟，该协议将国际货币相互挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> A more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.</p><p><blockquote>美元波动加剧导致进口价格上涨，从而使通胀更加波动和不确定。不确定性对投资者不利，这也是股票风险溢价再次上升以及股市回报受到影响的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Then came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.</p><p><blockquote>然后是第一次油价冲击，当时许多阿拉伯国家阻止了对美国的出口，以抗议美国对以色列的支持。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24170234a713529c1e8dafe7f75b6d0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Where are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天在哪里？我们的股票风险溢价较低，使得股票没有太多的不确定性缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> The government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.</p><p><blockquote>政府决心刺激经济，降低失业率。但与20世纪60年代中期不同的是，产出缺口尚未缩小。美联储的作用是关键。它承诺让经济过热，以实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> Overheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.</p><p><blockquote>过热似乎是一个不确定的前景，特别是如果最近货币供应的快速增长迅速修正到战后低得多的水平。</blockquote></p><p> One place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.</p><p><blockquote>投资者过去转向的一个领域是黄金等贵金属。在20世纪70年代，这种黄色金属提供了非常强劲的通胀调整后回报。在战后时期，当黄金交易被禁止时，这不是一个因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfebaee0355d857a22ed1b414ab12ad\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Within the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco.&nbsp;Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.</p><p><blockquote>在股票市场中，周期性行业的公司，如化工、矿业公司或航空公司，在20世纪70年代末和80年代初的表现优于防御性行业的公司，如公用事业或肥皂、食品和烟草等消费品。自那以后，如果将科技公司排除在外，周期性股票就表现不佳。避开科技公司，或者至少是那些依靠低利率使其承诺的未来收益在今天看起来更有价值的公司，可能是关键。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde91b59c249f4d9f22c6f068f17b2\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-history-of-inflation-11624263340?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-history-of-inflation-11624263340?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112997031","content_text":"Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.\nIf today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.\n\nAfter World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.\n\nOne reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.\n\nIn the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.\nAfter the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises.Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.\n\nRichard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.\nThings changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.\n\nThe economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.\nThen, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.\n\nAt the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.\nThe dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.\nA more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.\nThen came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.\n\nWhere are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.\nThe government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.\nOverheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.\nOne place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.\n\nWithin the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco. Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127724414,"gmtCreate":1624870501638,"gmtModify":1633947709899,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564567844038063","authorIdStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tigerrrr&nbsp;","listText":"Tigerrrr&nbsp;","text":"Tigerrrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127724414","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124971223,"gmtCreate":1624724595962,"gmtModify":1631884646985,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564567844038063","authorIdStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Post !&nbsp;","listText":"Post !&nbsp;","text":"Post !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124971223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124973688,"gmtCreate":1624724511844,"gmtModify":1633949272337,"author":{"id":"3564567844038063","authorId":"3564567844038063","name":"ngieeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564567844038063","authorIdStr":"3564567844038063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Send!","listText":"Send!","text":"Send!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124973688","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1631884627596,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金","htmlText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 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