KOSHILAN的个人主页 - 老虎社区

KOSHILAN

KOSHILAN

Founder of 21 Days LearningLab

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揭秘两大期权致胜策略，做少赚多的精髓

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&amp; AMD: Who May Hit $200 First? while naturally inserting your AMD call profit and showcasing your expertise: 🚀 NVDA vs AMD: Who Will Hit $200 First? #Nvidia #AMD #OptionsTrading #TigerCommunity #TechStocks #21DaysMethod Both $NVDA and $AMD have been on fire in 2025 🔥 But the golden question remains: Who will cross the $200 mark first? ✅ I made a bold bet on AMD with a 165C Call expiring 20260618 — and it paid off with: 💰 +112.57% return 📈 $126,262.62 USD profit Why AMD? 🔍 I’m always a fundamental investor first — when the company’s core numbers scream undervalue, I pair it with technical analysis confirmation. Then I use advanced options strategies to ride the upside with controlled risk. That’s part of the 21Days Investing Method. 📊 Nvidia has momentum, but AMD has valuation and","listText":"NVDA &amp; AMD: Who May Hit $200 First? while naturally inserting your AMD call profit and showcasing your expertise: 🚀 NVDA vs AMD: Who Will Hit $200 First? #Nvidia #AMD #OptionsTrading #TigerCommunity #TechStocks #21DaysMethod Both $NVDA and $AMD have been on fire in 2025 🔥 But the golden question remains: Who will cross the $200 mark first? ✅ I made a bold bet on AMD with a 165C Call expiring 20260618 — and it paid off with: 💰 +112.57% return 📈 $126,262.62 USD profit Why AMD? 🔍 I’m always a fundamental investor first — when the company’s core numbers scream undervalue, I pair it with technical analysis confirmation. Then I use advanced options strategies to ride the upside with controlled risk. That’s part of the 21Days Investing Method. 📊 Nvidia has momentum, but AMD has valuation and","text":"NVDA & AMD: Who May Hit $200 First? while naturally inserting your AMD call profit and showcasing your expertise: 🚀 NVDA vs AMD: Who Will Hit $200 First? #Nvidia #AMD #OptionsTrading #TigerCommunity #TechStocks #21DaysMethod Both $NVDA and $AMD have been on fire in 2025 🔥 But the golden question remains: Who will cross the $200 mark first? ✅ I made a bold bet on AMD with a 165C Call expiring 20260618 — and it paid off with: 💰 +112.57% return 📈 $126,262.62 USD profit Why AMD? 🔍 I’m always a fundamental investor first — when the company’s core numbers scream undervalue, I pair it with technical analysis confirmation. Then I use advanced options strategies to ride the upside with controlled risk. That’s part of the 21Days Investing Method. 📊 Nvidia has momentum, but AMD has valuation and","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e04de57b8da059cd9b5f6bde0d42390","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461419968942632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460840951341520,"gmtCreate":1753519306609,"gmtModify":1753522666349,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚘 Tesla Rebounds From Earnings Woe: Robotaxi Again? 📚 Lesson Learned: Tesla is Not Just a Car Company — It’s a Conviction Test Many investors (myself included) have been burned trying to time Tesla’s earnings reactions. One quarter it dives, the next it rockets on a single tweet from Elon. But if there’s one thing consistent about Tesla, it’s this: You can’t just value it with a traditional P/E model. 🔍 The Real Story Behind the “Earnings Woe” Tesla’s earnings may have looked weak on paper — margin pressure, price cuts, delivery softness. But while short-term numbers disappointed, the long-term narrative was reactivated when Elon Musk teased Robotaxi… again. For some, this is just noise. But for high-conviction investors, this is the signal. Here’s why: ⸻ ⚙️ Why Robotaxi Isn’t Just Hype 1.","listText":"🚘 Tesla Rebounds From Earnings Woe: Robotaxi Again? 📚 Lesson Learned: Tesla is Not Just a Car Company — It’s a Conviction Test Many investors (myself included) have been burned trying to time Tesla’s earnings reactions. One quarter it dives, the next it rockets on a single tweet from Elon. But if there’s one thing consistent about Tesla, it’s this: You can’t just value it with a traditional P/E model. 🔍 The Real Story Behind the “Earnings Woe” Tesla’s earnings may have looked weak on paper — margin pressure, price cuts, delivery softness. But while short-term numbers disappointed, the long-term narrative was reactivated when Elon Musk teased Robotaxi… again. For some, this is just noise. But for high-conviction investors, this is the signal. Here’s why: ⸻ ⚙️ Why Robotaxi Isn’t Just Hype 1.","text":"🚘 Tesla Rebounds From Earnings Woe: Robotaxi Again? 📚 Lesson Learned: Tesla is Not Just a Car Company — It’s a Conviction Test Many investors (myself included) have been burned trying to time Tesla’s earnings reactions. One quarter it dives, the next it rockets on a single tweet from Elon. But if there’s one thing consistent about Tesla, it’s this: You can’t just value it with a traditional P/E model. 🔍 The Real Story Behind the “Earnings Woe” Tesla’s earnings may have looked weak on paper — margin pressure, price cuts, delivery softness. But while short-term numbers disappointed, the long-term narrative was reactivated when Elon Musk teased Robotaxi… again. For some, this is just noise. But for high-conviction investors, this is the signal. Here’s why: ⸻ ⚙️ Why Robotaxi Isn’t Just Hype 1.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460840951341520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460707983512176,"gmtCreate":1753514519878,"gmtModify":1753515856699,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🧠 Palantir PT Upgrades to $175: Is Its Position in AI Unshakable? 📚 Lesson Learned: Don’t Just Chase the Price Target — Study the Moat ⸻ 📈 When I saw Palantir’s price target upgraded to $175, my first reaction was — “Wow, bullish!” But after the initial hype faded, I took a step back and reminded myself of an important lesson I’ve learned over the years as an investor: 👉 Price targets are opinions. Moats are facts. ⸻ 🔍 Here’s how I break it down before buying into a hype-driven rally: 1. Understand the Source of the Upgrade • Who issued the $175 PT? Is it based on AI hype or actual fundamentals? • Are they upgrading based on revenue growth, government contracts, or just a general AI narrative? 2. Evaluate the Real Moat • Palantir has been in the AI space before AI was cool. But what makes","listText":"🧠 Palantir PT Upgrades to $175: Is Its Position in AI Unshakable? 📚 Lesson Learned: Don’t Just Chase the Price Target — Study the Moat ⸻ 📈 When I saw Palantir’s price target upgraded to $175, my first reaction was — “Wow, bullish!” But after the initial hype faded, I took a step back and reminded myself of an important lesson I’ve learned over the years as an investor: 👉 Price targets are opinions. Moats are facts. ⸻ 🔍 Here’s how I break it down before buying into a hype-driven rally: 1. Understand the Source of the Upgrade • Who issued the $175 PT? Is it based on AI hype or actual fundamentals? • Are they upgrading based on revenue growth, government contracts, or just a general AI narrative? 2. Evaluate the Real Moat • Palantir has been in the AI space before AI was cool. But what makes","text":"🧠 Palantir PT Upgrades to $175: Is Its Position in AI Unshakable? 📚 Lesson Learned: Don’t Just Chase the Price Target — Study the Moat ⸻ 📈 When I saw Palantir’s price target upgraded to $175, my first reaction was — “Wow, bullish!” But after the initial hype faded, I took a step back and reminded myself of an important lesson I’ve learned over the years as an investor: 👉 Price targets are opinions. Moats are facts. ⸻ 🔍 Here’s how I break it down before buying into a hype-driven rally: 1. Understand the Source of the Upgrade • Who issued the $175 PT? Is it based on AI hype or actual fundamentals? • Are they upgrading based on revenue growth, government contracts, or just a general AI narrative? 2. Evaluate the Real Moat • Palantir has been in the AI space before AI was cool. But what makes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460707983512176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460828329521320,"gmtCreate":1753513797984,"gmtModify":1753515826540,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NVDA 20250815 172.5 CALL BUY 1 | NVDA 20250815 172.5 PUT SELL 1\">$NVDA SYNTHETIC 250815 PUT 172.5/CALL 172.5$</a> 🚀 My NVDA Synthetic Story: When I Missed the Undervalued Entry, I Built My Own Share! 💡 Sometimes in trading, opportunities don’t wait. I had been watching $NVDA closely, hoping for a pullback to what I believed was an undervalued price. But the market had other plans — NVDA never came down to my ideal entry zone. Rather than chasing the price or sitting out completely, I took another route: I built a synthetic long position. 🔹 Trade Setup: $NVDA SYNTHETIC 250815 PUT 172.5 / CALL 172.5 This is a classic synthetic long. By selling a PUT and buying a CALL at the same strike (172.5), I recreated the behavior of holding NVDA stock — but with less","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NVDA 20250815 172.5 CALL BUY 1 | NVDA 20250815 172.5 PUT SELL 1\">$NVDA SYNTHETIC 250815 PUT 172.5/CALL 172.5$</a> 🚀 My NVDA Synthetic Story: When I Missed the Undervalued Entry, I Built My Own Share! 💡 Sometimes in trading, opportunities don’t wait. I had been watching $NVDA closely, hoping for a pullback to what I believed was an undervalued price. But the market had other plans — NVDA never came down to my ideal entry zone. Rather than chasing the price or sitting out completely, I took another route: I built a synthetic long position. 🔹 Trade Setup: $NVDA SYNTHETIC 250815 PUT 172.5 / CALL 172.5 This is a classic synthetic long. By selling a PUT and buying a CALL at the same strike (172.5), I recreated the behavior of holding NVDA stock — but with less","text":"$NVDA SYNTHETIC 250815 PUT 172.5/CALL 172.5$ 🚀 My NVDA Synthetic Story: When I Missed the Undervalued Entry, I Built My Own Share! 💡 Sometimes in trading, opportunities don’t wait. I had been watching $NVDA closely, hoping for a pullback to what I believed was an undervalued price. But the market had other plans — NVDA never came down to my ideal entry zone. Rather than chasing the price or sitting out completely, I took another route: I built a synthetic long position. 🔹 Trade Setup: $NVDA SYNTHETIC 250815 PUT 172.5 / CALL 172.5 This is a classic synthetic long. By selling a PUT and buying a CALL at the same strike (172.5), I recreated the behavior of holding NVDA stock — but with less","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e37bddd85655b21c2d876b6803979a4","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460828329521320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603742098,"gmtCreate":1638456307858,"gmtModify":1638456308291,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Added some possition&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Added some possition&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Added some possition","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e8407277bb49e3469dad8743da185d","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603742098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852147524,"gmtCreate":1635255670185,"gmtModify":1635255723761,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;Will keep long and follow my QQWW criteriato take profits&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;Will keep long and follow my QQWW criteriato take profits&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ Will keep long and follow my QQWW criteriato take profits","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2857109493714166435c7e4ab8937bb","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852147524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863340577,"gmtCreate":1632360819799,"gmtModify":1632645687270,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a> wanted to get at $450.Drop more please.&nbsp;The more you drop, the more I will choose you 🔥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a> wanted to get at $450.Drop more please.&nbsp;The more you drop, the more I will choose you 🔥","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$ wanted to get at $450.Drop more please. The more you drop, the more I will choose you 🔥","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78941f31d68e5610a31ca9da7a798e7","width":"1125","height":"3340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863340577","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863085183,"gmtCreate":1632335797242,"gmtModify":1632801151066,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>swing position only. Won’t keep long just get into the hype and new base on TA.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>swing position only. Won’t keep long just get into the hype and new base on TA.&nbsp;","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$swing position only. Won’t keep long just get into the hype and new base on TA.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee1b5c48f5b46bcdb67432f55108a05","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863085183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869474133,"gmtCreate":1632319809922,"gmtModify":1632801265838,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5 stocks that I wish there was a significant dip in that I could buy more:1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>4. NVDA&nbsp;5. SQAny&nbsp;Thoughts?","listText":"5 stocks that I wish there was a significant dip in that I could buy more:1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>4. NVDA&nbsp;5. SQAny&nbsp;Thoughts?","text":"5 stocks that I wish there was a significant dip in that I could buy more:1. $Sea Ltd(SE)$2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$3. $Facebook(FB)$4. NVDA 5. SQAny Thoughts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869474133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887198339,"gmtCreate":1632003757721,"gmtModify":1632804940285,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01929\">$Chow Tai Fook Jewellery(01929)$</a>Learn about this company yesterday while I am shopping for gold! Interesting.Do you know this gold company??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01929\">$Chow Tai Fook Jewellery(01929)$</a>Learn about this company yesterday while I am shopping for gold! Interesting.Do you know this gold company??","text":"$Chow Tai Fook Jewellery(01929)$Learn about this company yesterday while I am shopping for gold! Interesting.Do you know this gold company??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df243eb7feef074d0f4133e15aa35fb","width":"1125","height":"3340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887198339","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886047730,"gmtCreate":1631541355920,"gmtModify":1631887203955,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZI\">$ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.(ZI)$</a> excited for the powerful business model this companyHave. Might take a small sold put entry possition.&nbsp;Any QQWW Warriors do the same type Karching in the comment below 🔥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZI\">$ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.(ZI)$</a> excited for the powerful business model this companyHave. Might take a small sold put entry possition.&nbsp;Any QQWW Warriors do the same type Karching in the comment below 🔥","text":"$ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.(ZI)$ excited for the powerful business model this companyHave. Might take a small sold put entry possition. Any QQWW Warriors do the same type Karching in the comment below 🔥","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f2f874b2d2b89a1f0483244f6d17e52","width":"1125","height":"3658"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886047730","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153869840,"gmtCreate":1625017491080,"gmtModify":1631886529450,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a> My 2021 personal favorite.&nbsp;So you have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a> My 2021 personal favorite.&nbsp;So you have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>??","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$ My 2021 personal favorite. So you have $Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80bfb69ee549a46ae11ea894e1ac3a6","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153869840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159344585,"gmtCreate":1624944152647,"gmtModify":1631887203967,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🔥","listText":"🔥","text":"🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159344585","repostId":"1146874721","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146874721","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624935286,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146874721?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 10:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146874721","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultim","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）美国由Covid引发的衰退是一场痛苦的衰退，但最终可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> The official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由一场大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSigns the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）美国由Covid引发的衰退是一场痛苦的衰退，但最终可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> The official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由一场大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146874721","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.\nThe official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.\nSome experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.\nCould the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.\nThere are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.\nBut plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.\nAnd it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.\n\"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.\nDefault rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.\nThe demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.\n\"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"\n'Strong...to quite strong'\nUrban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.\nClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.\nAnalysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"\nMeanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.\n\"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"\nFear the double dip?\nBeyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.\n\"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.\nThat's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.\nBut many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.\n\"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"\nThe strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.\nThey also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.\n\"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.\nIf that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127995534,"gmtCreate":1624810842228,"gmtModify":1631887203955,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127995534","repostId":"2146070550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127995855,"gmtCreate":1624810798877,"gmtModify":1631887203958,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good wrote up&nbsp;","listText":"Good wrote up&nbsp;","text":"Good wrote up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127995855","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127995933,"gmtCreate":1624810779922,"gmtModify":1631887203959,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not bad&nbsp;","listText":"Not bad&nbsp;","text":"Not bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127995933","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125003406,"gmtCreate":1624635247305,"gmtModify":1631887203953,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power&nbsp;","listText":"Power&nbsp;","text":"Power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125003406","repostId":"2146071375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168552482,"gmtCreate":1623979310246,"gmtModify":1631887203962,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🔥","listText":"🔥","text":"🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168552482","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161557463,"gmtCreate":1623936493752,"gmtModify":1631885219112,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a> I am monitoring for some day trade 🔥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a> I am monitoring for some day trade 🔥","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ I am monitoring for some day trade 🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161557463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185119418,"gmtCreate":1623636262534,"gmtModify":1631885616233,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a> looks interesting to me after hear deep down about this company&nbsp;from our millionaire community.Take a look guys. Good to play stable options play or trade setup :)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a> looks interesting to me after hear deep down about this company&nbsp;from our millionaire community.Take a look guys. Good to play stable options play or trade setup :)","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ looks interesting to me after hear deep down about this company from our millionaire community.Take a look guys. Good to play stable options play or trade setup :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185119418","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":460840951341520,"gmtCreate":1753519306609,"gmtModify":1753522666349,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚘 Tesla Rebounds From Earnings Woe: Robotaxi Again? 📚 Lesson Learned: Tesla is Not Just a Car Company — It’s a Conviction Test Many investors (myself included) have been burned trying to time Tesla’s earnings reactions. One quarter it dives, the next it rockets on a single tweet from Elon. But if there’s one thing consistent about Tesla, it’s this: You can’t just value it with a traditional P/E model. 🔍 The Real Story Behind the “Earnings Woe” Tesla’s earnings may have looked weak on paper — margin pressure, price cuts, delivery softness. But while short-term numbers disappointed, the long-term narrative was reactivated when Elon Musk teased Robotaxi… again. For some, this is just noise. But for high-conviction investors, this is the signal. Here’s why: ⸻ ⚙️ Why Robotaxi Isn’t Just Hype 1.","listText":"🚘 Tesla Rebounds From Earnings Woe: Robotaxi Again? 📚 Lesson Learned: Tesla is Not Just a Car Company — It’s a Conviction Test Many investors (myself included) have been burned trying to time Tesla’s earnings reactions. One quarter it dives, the next it rockets on a single tweet from Elon. But if there’s one thing consistent about Tesla, it’s this: You can’t just value it with a traditional P/E model. 🔍 The Real Story Behind the “Earnings Woe” Tesla’s earnings may have looked weak on paper — margin pressure, price cuts, delivery softness. But while short-term numbers disappointed, the long-term narrative was reactivated when Elon Musk teased Robotaxi… again. For some, this is just noise. But for high-conviction investors, this is the signal. Here’s why: ⸻ ⚙️ Why Robotaxi Isn’t Just Hype 1.","text":"🚘 Tesla Rebounds From Earnings Woe: Robotaxi Again? 📚 Lesson Learned: Tesla is Not Just a Car Company — It’s a Conviction Test Many investors (myself included) have been burned trying to time Tesla’s earnings reactions. One quarter it dives, the next it rockets on a single tweet from Elon. But if there’s one thing consistent about Tesla, it’s this: You can’t just value it with a traditional P/E model. 🔍 The Real Story Behind the “Earnings Woe” Tesla’s earnings may have looked weak on paper — margin pressure, price cuts, delivery softness. But while short-term numbers disappointed, the long-term narrative was reactivated when Elon Musk teased Robotaxi… again. For some, this is just noise. But for high-conviction investors, this is the signal. Here’s why: ⸻ ⚙️ Why Robotaxi Isn’t Just Hype 1.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460840951341520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869474133,"gmtCreate":1632319809922,"gmtModify":1632801265838,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5 stocks that I wish there was a significant dip in that I could buy more:1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>4. NVDA&nbsp;5. SQAny&nbsp;Thoughts?","listText":"5 stocks that I wish there was a significant dip in that I could buy more:1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>4. NVDA&nbsp;5. SQAny&nbsp;Thoughts?","text":"5 stocks that I wish there was a significant dip in that I could buy more:1. $Sea Ltd(SE)$2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$3. $Facebook(FB)$4. NVDA 5. SQAny Thoughts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869474133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191267476,"gmtCreate":1620881909695,"gmtModify":1631886532381,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>. Stay calm and drink coffee!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>. Stay calm and drink coffee!","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$. Stay calm and drink coffee!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8febd332cf98f2848e2bd6dc88c7f2ae","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191267476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190399612,"gmtCreate":1620587017536,"gmtModify":1631886532936,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>It’s ok to have paper lost.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>It’s ok to have paper lost.","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$It’s ok to have paper lost.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e902aa681f408d182b1cc6966e40623","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190399612","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":852147524,"gmtCreate":1635255670185,"gmtModify":1635255723761,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;Will keep long and follow my QQWW criteriato take profits&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;Will keep long and follow my QQWW criteriato take profits&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ Will keep long and follow my QQWW criteriato take profits","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2857109493714166435c7e4ab8937bb","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852147524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603742098,"gmtCreate":1638456307858,"gmtModify":1638456308291,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Added some possition&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Added some possition&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Added some possition","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e8407277bb49e3469dad8743da185d","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603742098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153869840,"gmtCreate":1625017491080,"gmtModify":1631886529450,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a> My 2021 personal favorite.&nbsp;So you have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a> My 2021 personal favorite.&nbsp;So you have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>??","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$ My 2021 personal favorite. So you have $Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80bfb69ee549a46ae11ea894e1ac3a6","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153869840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111101134,"gmtCreate":1622656774828,"gmtModify":1631886531047,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>getting back on the profits zone! [微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>getting back on the profits zone! [微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$getting back on the profits zone! [微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/492ceb6e49dd161ade28f52da67fe2d5","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111101134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186582430,"gmtCreate":1623511036920,"gmtModify":1631886530435,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>Back to profits","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>Back to profits","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$Back to profits","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d94f94b17215842f0c5a5931ae0626","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186582430","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863340577,"gmtCreate":1632360819799,"gmtModify":1632645687270,"author":{"id":"3564603600394226","authorId":"3564603600394226","name":"KOSHILAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8841f06ef0196db3332a9b3e3ac7a366","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564603600394226","idStr":"3564603600394226"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a> wanted to get at $450.Drop more please.&nbsp;The more you drop, the more I will choose you 🔥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a> wanted to get at $450.Drop more please.&nbsp;The more you drop, the more I will choose you 🔥","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$ wanted to get at $450.Drop more please. The more you drop, the more I will choose you 🔥","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78941f31d68e5610a31ca9da7a798e7","width":"1125","height":"3340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863340577","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[{"live_id":1807085864065147,"type":1,"status":3,"title":"揭秘两大期权致胜策略，做少赚多的精髓","source_url":"-","live_img_url":"https://p1-live.byteimg.com/tos-cn-i-gjr78lqtd0/5f23dbf5543b45a5b2cd06884c04a352~tplv-gjr78lqtd0-z75.image","video_url":"","share_url":"https://live.byteoc.com/9999/8973509","expected_time":1724932800000,"live_url":"https://www.laohu8.com/live/1807085864065147","category_id":2,"subscribe_status":0,"main_push":0,"time_remain":-48490807961,"uuid":["3564603600394226"],"msg_symbols":[],"permission":null,"permission_code":5,"insert_time":1723440077000,"description":""}]}