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Limth

Limth

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2021-11-06

Did he offend someone? Or maybe make it big there but didnt pay back

Popular Hot Pot Restaurant Brand Haidilao to Shut Down 300 Restaurants in China<blockquote>受欢迎的火锅店品牌海底捞将在中国关闭300家餐厅</blockquote>

2021-11-06

This is small settlement compared to the amount they make

Boeing directors agree to $320 million settlement over 737 Max safety oversight<blockquote>波音董事同意就 737 Max 安全监管达成 3.2 亿美元和解</blockquote>

2021-10-24

Is this wolf calling when wolf has not turned up?

Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股市不利？</blockquote>

2021-10-23

Fantastic news. Much underrated

Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir 股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>

2021-10-19

To the moon

Why Apple's New Mac Chips Are Setting High Bar for Intel<blockquote>为什么苹果的新 Mac 芯片为英特尔设定了高标准</blockquote>

2021-10-18

Gogogo

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-12

Good step

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-12

Good timing

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-03

To the moon

Why Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以戳破</blockquote>

2021-10-03

Good for next pop

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-27

Gogo disney

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-26

To the moon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-23

Good news

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-22

Wrong bet

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-22

Big fallout

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-21

Trying gimmicks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-21

Trying to control the inevitable

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-20

Other cards will benefit

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-20

Pushing the limits

Elon Musk’s Push to Expand Tesla’s Driver Assistance to Cities Rankles a Top Safety Authority<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）推动将特斯拉的驾驶辅助服务扩展到城市，这激怒了最高安全机构</blockquote>

2021-09-19

Haven't suffered long enough

抱歉，原内容已删除

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he offend someone? Or maybe make it big there but didnt pay back","listText":"Did he offend someone? Or maybe make it big there but didnt pay back","text":"Did he offend someone? Or maybe make it big there but didnt pay back","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842217995","repostId":"2181744416","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2181744416","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1636161660,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2181744416?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-06 09:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Popular Hot Pot Restaurant Brand Haidilao to Shut Down 300 Restaurants in China<blockquote>受欢迎的火锅店品牌海底捞将在中国关闭300家餐厅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2181744416","media":"钛媒体","summary":"BEIJING, November 5 (TMTPOST) — Popular Chinese hot pot restaurant brand Haidilao (06862.HK) has ann","content":"<p>BEIJING, November 5 (TMTPOST) — <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BPOPN\">Popular</a> Chinese hot pot restaurant brand Haidilao (06862.HK) has announced on Friday that it will close down around 300 restaurants in China that fail to meet revenue expectations or have low customer traffic by December 31st 2021. According to Haidilao’s statement, some of the restaurants will suspend operation temporarily and will reopen after adjustment within two years. Haidilao has promised that it will not lay off staff and will rearrange employees working in the affected restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>钛媒体北京11月5日电——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BPOPN\">流行的</a>中国火锅店品牌海底捞 (06862.HK) 周五宣布，将在 2021 年 12 月 31 日之前关闭中国约 300 家未能达到收入预期或客流量较低的餐厅。根据海底捞的声明，部分餐厅将暂时停业，两年内调整后重新开业。海底捞承诺不会裁员，并将重新安排在受影响餐厅工作的员工。</blockquote></p><p> Haidilao is a popular go-to hot pot restaurant brand in China, especially popular among young consumers.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞是中国广受欢迎的火锅店品牌，尤其受到年轻消费者的欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35715cef35710a06dc52a2418de4d934\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"849\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Haidilao’s business adjustment plan, titled “the Woodpecker”, will be directed by the company’s executive director and vice CEO Yang Lijuan. Besides paying close attention to Haidilao restaurants with poor business performance both at home and overseas, the plan also includes measures such as rebuilding some key departments and restoring the regional management systems. In addition, scientific key performance indicators will be set up for all departments while the promotion of the brand’s culture will be further strengthened. Business expansion plans will be limited accordingly. According to Haidilao, the company will not in principle consider expanding if the table turnover rate remains lower than four times a day.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞的业务调整计划名为《啄木鸟》，将由公司执行董事兼副首席执行官杨丽娟执导。除了密切关注海内外经营业绩不佳的海底捞餐厅外，该计划还包括重建部分关键部门、恢复区域管理体系等措施。此外，还将为各部门制定科学的关键绩效指标，同时进一步加强品牌文化的推广。业务扩张计划将因此受到限制。海底捞方面表示，如果餐桌周转率保持在每天四次以下，公司原则上不会考虑扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Haidilao started a massive business expansion in 2020. The company’s 2020 fiscal report shows the number of Haidilao restaurants grew by 530 to 1,298. Haidilao opened 544 new restaurants while closing 14 restaurants in 2020. However, Haidilao’s table turnover rate decreased from 2019’s 4.8 times per day to 3.5 times per day.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞在2020年开始大规模的业务扩张。该公司 2020 年财报显示，海底捞餐厅数量增加了 530 家，达到 1298 家。2020年，海底捞新开了544家餐厅，同时关闭了14家餐厅。然而，海底捞的翻桌率从 2019 年的每天 4.8 次下降到每天 3.5 次。</blockquote></p><p> “I was wrong. I made the decision to expand last year, a decision turned out to be based on blind faith in the market,” Zhang Yong, Haidilao’s founder said. “I only realized this back in January this year. But it wasn’t until March that I took action about it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我错了。海底捞创始人张勇说：”我去年就做出了扩张的决定，结果证明这个决定是基于对市场的盲目信任。“我是在今年一月才意识到这一点的。但直到三月份，我才采取行动。”</blockquote></p><p> Haidilao’s share price experienced a sharp dive after rapid growth after the Spring Festival earlier this year. Haidilao’s share price grew by 5.46% and closed at HK$21.05 per share today, setting the company’s valuation at HK$115 billion. In comparison, Haidilao’s share price hit HK$85.75 per share in February, a record high for the company. Haidilao’s valuation even surpassed HK$460 billion at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> point.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞的股价在今年春节后的快速增长后出现大幅跳水。海底捞股价今日上涨5.46%，收于每股21.05港元，公司估值达到1150亿港元。相比之下，海底捞的股价在 2 月份触及每股 85.75 港元，创下该公司历史新高。海底捞的估值甚至超过4600亿港元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"taimeiti","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Popular Hot Pot Restaurant Brand Haidilao to Shut Down 300 Restaurants in China<blockquote>受欢迎的火锅店品牌海底捞将在中国关闭300家餐厅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPopular Hot Pot Restaurant Brand Haidilao to Shut Down 300 Restaurants in China<blockquote>受欢迎的火锅店品牌海底捞将在中国关闭300家餐厅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钛媒体</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-06 09:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, November 5 (TMTPOST) — <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BPOPN\">Popular</a> Chinese hot pot restaurant brand Haidilao (06862.HK) has announced on Friday that it will close down around 300 restaurants in China that fail to meet revenue expectations or have low customer traffic by December 31st 2021. According to Haidilao’s statement, some of the restaurants will suspend operation temporarily and will reopen after adjustment within two years. Haidilao has promised that it will not lay off staff and will rearrange employees working in the affected restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>钛媒体北京11月5日电——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BPOPN\">流行的</a>中国火锅店品牌海底捞 (06862.HK) 周五宣布，将在 2021 年 12 月 31 日之前关闭中国约 300 家未能达到收入预期或客流量较低的餐厅。根据海底捞的声明，部分餐厅将暂时停业，两年内调整后重新开业。海底捞承诺不会裁员，并将重新安排在受影响餐厅工作的员工。</blockquote></p><p> Haidilao is a popular go-to hot pot restaurant brand in China, especially popular among young consumers.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞是中国广受欢迎的火锅店品牌，尤其受到年轻消费者的欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35715cef35710a06dc52a2418de4d934\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"849\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Haidilao’s business adjustment plan, titled “the Woodpecker”, will be directed by the company’s executive director and vice CEO Yang Lijuan. Besides paying close attention to Haidilao restaurants with poor business performance both at home and overseas, the plan also includes measures such as rebuilding some key departments and restoring the regional management systems. In addition, scientific key performance indicators will be set up for all departments while the promotion of the brand’s culture will be further strengthened. Business expansion plans will be limited accordingly. According to Haidilao, the company will not in principle consider expanding if the table turnover rate remains lower than four times a day.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞的业务调整计划名为《啄木鸟》，将由公司执行董事兼副首席执行官杨丽娟执导。除了密切关注海内外经营业绩不佳的海底捞餐厅外，该计划还包括重建部分关键部门、恢复区域管理体系等措施。此外，还将为各部门制定科学的关键绩效指标，同时进一步加强品牌文化的推广。业务扩张计划将因此受到限制。海底捞方面表示，如果餐桌周转率保持在每天四次以下，公司原则上不会考虑扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Haidilao started a massive business expansion in 2020. The company’s 2020 fiscal report shows the number of Haidilao restaurants grew by 530 to 1,298. Haidilao opened 544 new restaurants while closing 14 restaurants in 2020. However, Haidilao’s table turnover rate decreased from 2019’s 4.8 times per day to 3.5 times per day.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞在2020年开始大规模的业务扩张。该公司 2020 年财报显示，海底捞餐厅数量增加了 530 家，达到 1298 家。2020年，海底捞新开了544家餐厅，同时关闭了14家餐厅。然而，海底捞的翻桌率从 2019 年的每天 4.8 次下降到每天 3.5 次。</blockquote></p><p> “I was wrong. I made the decision to expand last year, a decision turned out to be based on blind faith in the market,” Zhang Yong, Haidilao’s founder said. “I only realized this back in January this year. But it wasn’t until March that I took action about it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我错了。海底捞创始人张勇说：”我去年就做出了扩张的决定，结果证明这个决定是基于对市场的盲目信任。“我是在今年一月才意识到这一点的。但直到三月份，我才采取行动。”</blockquote></p><p> Haidilao’s share price experienced a sharp dive after rapid growth after the Spring Festival earlier this year. Haidilao’s share price grew by 5.46% and closed at HK$21.05 per share today, setting the company’s valuation at HK$115 billion. In comparison, Haidilao’s share price hit HK$85.75 per share in February, a record high for the company. Haidilao’s valuation even surpassed HK$460 billion at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> point.</p><p><blockquote>海底捞的股价在今年春节后的快速增长后出现大幅跳水。海底捞股价今日上涨5.46%，收于每股21.05港元，公司估值达到1150亿港元。相比之下，海底捞的股价在 2 月份触及每股 85.75 港元，创下该公司历史新高。海底捞的估值甚至超过4600亿港元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.tmtpost.com/5842325.html?rss=qcloud\">钛媒体</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"06862":"海底捞"},"source_url":"https://www.tmtpost.com/5842325.html?rss=qcloud","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2181744416","content_text":"BEIJING, November 5 (TMTPOST) — Popular Chinese hot pot restaurant brand Haidilao (06862.HK) has announced on Friday that it will close down around 300 restaurants in China that fail to meet revenue expectations or have low customer traffic by December 31st 2021. According to Haidilao’s statement, some of the restaurants will suspend operation temporarily and will reopen after adjustment within two years. Haidilao has promised that it will not lay off staff and will rearrange employees working in the affected restaurants.\nHaidilao is a popular go-to hot pot restaurant brand in China, especially popular among young consumers.\n\nHaidilao’s business adjustment plan, titled “the Woodpecker”, will be directed by the company’s executive director and vice CEO Yang Lijuan. Besides paying close attention to Haidilao restaurants with poor business performance both at home and overseas, the plan also includes measures such as rebuilding some key departments and restoring the regional management systems. In addition, scientific key performance indicators will be set up for all departments while the promotion of the brand’s culture will be further strengthened. Business expansion plans will be limited accordingly. According to Haidilao, the company will not in principle consider expanding if the table turnover rate remains lower than four times a day.\nHaidilao started a massive business expansion in 2020. The company’s 2020 fiscal report shows the number of Haidilao restaurants grew by 530 to 1,298. Haidilao opened 544 new restaurants while closing 14 restaurants in 2020. However, Haidilao’s table turnover rate decreased from 2019’s 4.8 times per day to 3.5 times per day.\n“I was wrong. I made the decision to expand last year, a decision turned out to be based on blind faith in the market,” Zhang Yong, Haidilao’s founder said. “I only realized this back in January this year. But it wasn’t until March that I took action about it.”\nHaidilao’s share price experienced a sharp dive after rapid growth after the Spring Festival earlier this year. Haidilao’s share price grew by 5.46% and closed at HK$21.05 per share today, setting the company’s valuation at HK$115 billion. In comparison, Haidilao’s share price hit HK$85.75 per share in February, a record high for the company. Haidilao’s valuation even surpassed HK$460 billion at one point.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842214266,"gmtCreate":1636180850447,"gmtModify":1636180850833,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is small settlement compared to the amount they make","listText":"This is small settlement compared to the amount they make","text":"This is small settlement compared to the amount they make","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842214266","repostId":"2181447387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2181447387","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636164966,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2181447387?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-06 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing directors agree to $320 million settlement over 737 Max safety oversight<blockquote>波音董事同意就 737 Max 安全监管达成 3.2 亿美元和解</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2181447387","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"WASHINGTON/SEATTLE (REUTERS) - Boeing Co current and former company directors have reached a US$237.","content":"<p><div> WASHINGTON/SEATTLE (REUTERS) - Boeing Co current and former company directors have reached a US$237.5 million (S$320.77 million) proposed settlement with shareholders to settle a lawsuit over the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华盛顿/西雅图（路透社）-波音公司现任和前任公司董事已与股东达成2.375亿美元（3.2077亿新元）的和解协议，以解决一起诉讼……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/boeing-directors-agree-to-320-million-settlement-over-737-max-safety-oversight\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/boeing-directors-agree-to-320-million-settlement-over-737-max-safety-oversight\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing directors agree to $320 million settlement over 737 Max safety oversight<blockquote>波音董事同意就 737 Max 安全监管达成 3.2 亿美元和解</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing directors agree to $320 million settlement over 737 Max safety oversight<blockquote>波音董事同意就 737 Max 安全监管达成 3.2 亿美元和解</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Straits Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-06 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> WASHINGTON/SEATTLE (REUTERS) - Boeing Co current and former company directors have reached a US$237.5 million (S$320.77 million) proposed settlement with shareholders to settle a lawsuit over the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华盛顿/西雅图（路透社）-波音公司现任和前任公司董事已与股东达成2.375亿美元（3.2077亿新元）的和解协议，以解决一起诉讼……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/boeing-directors-agree-to-320-million-settlement-over-737-max-safety-oversight\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/boeing-directors-agree-to-320-million-settlement-over-737-max-safety-oversight\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/boeing-directors-agree-to-320-million-settlement-over-737-max-safety-oversight\">The Straits Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/boeing-directors-agree-to-320-million-settlement-over-737-max-safety-oversight","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2181447387","content_text":"WASHINGTON/SEATTLE (REUTERS) - Boeing Co current and former company directors have reached a US$237.5 million (S$320.77 million) proposed settlement with shareholders to settle a lawsuit over the board's safety oversight of the 737 Max aircraft, documents released on Friday (Nov 5) show.\nFollowing two fatal 737 Max crashes in the space of five months in 2018 - 2019 that killed 346 people, Boeing's best selling plane was grounded for 20 months and returned to service after the company made significant software and training improvements.\nThe proposed agreement, which is being filed in Delaware Chancery Court late on Friday and was confirmed by Boeing, will require the election of an additional board director with aviation/aerospace, engineering, or product safety oversight expertise within one year.\nNew York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and the Fire and Police Pension Association of Colorado, the lead plaintiffs, said the settlement if approved will be the largest monetary recovery in a lawsuit filed in the Delaware Courts over allegations that directors failed to protect against the risk of harm.\nBoeing's board \"failed in their fiduciary responsibility to monitor safety and protect the company, its shareholders and its customers from unsafe business practices and admitted illegal conduct,\" Mr DiNapoli said.\n\"It is our hope, moving forward, that the reforms agreed to in this settlement will help safeguard Boeing and the flying public against future tragedy and begin to restore the company's reputation.\"\nThe agreement calls for Boeing's board to always be required to have at least three directors with safety-related experience, according to the proposal, which must be approved by a judge to become final.\nUnder the settlement, Boeing would amend its bylaws to require the separation of the CEO and Board chair positions, create for at least five years an ombudsperson programme to provide Boeing employees conducting airplane certification work for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) with a way to raise work-related concerns.\nThe settlement would also require Boeing to provide annual public reports on safety related enhancements implemented by the planemaker since the Max air disasters.\nThe financial penalty is to be paid by insurers to Boeing, the documents show, minus up to US$29.7 million in legal fees and expenses to the shareholder attorneys.\nBoeing's current and former directors do not admit wrongdoing and assert they were acting in the best interests of Boeing and its stockholders, according to the settlement.\nThe Delaware court in September ruled Boeing stockholders could pursue some claims against the board, saying the first 737 Max crash was a \"red flag\" about a safety system known as MCAS \"that the board should have heeded but instead ignored.\"\nThe crashes have cost Boeing some US$20 billion. Boeing agreed to a deferred prosecution agreement with the US Department of Justice in January including US$2.5 billion in fines and compensation stemming from the 737 Max crashes.\nBoeing confirmed the settlement and said \"Boeing has taken significant actions to reinforce and strengthen our commitment to aviation safety\" since the crashes.\nThe settlement, it added \"builds on those actions with additional oversight and governance reforms that will further advance safety and quality in the work that we do.\"\nBoeing's board includes the recent additions of Retired Lieutenant-General Stayce Harris, who has over 10,000 hours experience as a pilot of Boeing aircraft; and Mr David Joyce, who led GE Aviation from 2009 to 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858622594,"gmtCreate":1635047334825,"gmtModify":1635047335329,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is this wolf calling when wolf has not turned up?","listText":"Is this wolf calling when wolf has not turned up?","text":"Is this wolf calling when wolf has not turned up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858622594","repostId":"1197815871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197815871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635036807,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197815871?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股市不利？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197815871","media":"Barrons","summary":"Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.\nT","content":"<p>Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.</p><p><blockquote>消费者正在发出投资者没有注意到的令人担忧的信号。是时候注意了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.</p><p><blockquote>股市和消费者情绪通常会同步上涨和下跌。以过去的18个月为例。超宽松的全球货币政策、创纪录水平的财政刺激以及不断上升的盈利预测使股市接连创下新高。同样的刺激力量，加上限制社会活动的流行病，帮助美国消费者积累了超过2万亿美元的储蓄，尽管劳动力市场收紧，工资攀升。这些股市上涨让消费者感到更加兴奋，而兴奋的消费者让投资者更加看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&amp;P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，这种相关性已经被打破。随着股市走高，消费者变得不那么乐观，标普500指数周四创下历史新高。正如摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 指出的那样，密歇根大学消费者信心指数在 8 月份跌至 2012 年以来的最低水平后，9 月份仅小幅反弹，至 2020 年 3 月的疫情低点。世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数同样下滑。</blockquote></p><p> The gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，这些读数与股市变化之间的差距仍然异常大。当前读数与未来预期之间的差距也在扩大，这表明消费者并不认为他们的担忧是暂时的。尽管最新一波 Covid-19 感染似乎已经达到顶峰，但信心差距依然存在，这意味着这个故事不仅仅是病毒本身。</blockquote></p><p> So, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.</p><p><blockquote>那么，谁是对的？沙莱特倾向于从消费者的角度出发，她并不孤单。</blockquote></p><p> In a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.</p><p><blockquote>在本月早些时候的一篇论文中，达特茅斯学院经济学教授、英格兰银行货币政策委员会前外部成员大卫-布兰奇弗劳尔（David Blanchflower）和伦敦大学学院定量社会科学教授亚历克斯-布赖森（Alex Bryson）撰文介绍了他们看涨期权的 “走动的经济学”。这个想法是：当地的人们根据自己的经验和他们认识的人的经验拥有关于经济趋势的信息，这使他们能够评估未来的经济趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Their conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.</p><p><blockquote>他们的结论是：经济冲击很难预测，但关于消费者预期的定性指标可以预测经济衰退。他们显示，密歇根大学和世界大型企业联合会的消费者预期指数都预测美国经济将提前18个月出现衰退。他们发现，自 20 世纪 80 年代以来的所有衰退都是通过这些指数至少下降 10 个百分点来预测的。</blockquote></p><p> The Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.</p><p><blockquote>Blanchflower和Bryson说，密歇根州的指标在2021年6月达到峰值，到8月下降了18点，而世界大型企业联合会的指标在2021年3月达到峰值，然后到2021年9月下降了26点。他们说，虽然他们将 2021 年的经济形势看涨期权为 “特殊”，但过去六个月消费者预期的下调表明，美国经济现在正在进入衰退。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”</p><p><blockquote>“布兰奇弗劳尔和布赖森说：”这是一个大胆的看涨期权，与共识不符。“然而，正如大多数政策制定者和经济学家所做的那样，错过了2007年这些变量的下降，事实证明是致命的。”</blockquote></p><p> The reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>情绪恶化背后的原因至少与下滑本身一样重要。调查显示，即使美联储继续否认建筑定价压力，通货膨胀仍是消费者最关心的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Consider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.</p><p><blockquote>以《零售销售》为例，华尔街将这一系列视为消费者旺盛的证据。Bleakley Advisory Group 首席投资官 Peter Boockvar 指出，自 3 月份发出最后一轮刺激支票以来，零售额仅增长了 0.4%，而消费者价格指数则上涨了 3.6%。“布克瓦尔说：”有人可以说，自 3 月份以来的所有零售额，以及一些零售额，都是通货膨胀，而不是销量。</blockquote></p><p> Widespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.</p><p><blockquote>普遍的短缺意味着可以购买的商品减少，但风险在于假设需求只是被推迟。如果消费者在等待汽车、房屋和其他物品变得可用或负担得起时变得越来越谨慎，潜在的消费可能会损失。</blockquote></p><p> People are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学经济学家理查德·科廷表示，尽管无处不在的求助迹象和工资快速增长，但人们也担心就业市场。由于工资增长仍未跟上消费者价格通胀的步伐，工人们可能已经永久性地放弃了在大流行病期间风险更大的工作，并且无法支付足够的费用来支付费用。许多企业正在开辟新的道路--新企业的成立不断激增--这强化了劳动力短缺并非暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p> What is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的结果是什么？“沙莱特说：”如果消费者信心不能迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而令人失望的盈利、支出疲软和储蓄率上升将引发市场疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，在某些地方，持续的劳动力短缺和消费者信心下降交织在一起，建议投资者寻找那些利用更具弹性的需求且对劳动力依赖较少的公司。她更喜欢企业对企业的公司，而不是直接向消费者销售的公司，并表示选股的最佳地点是银行、能源和工业行业。</blockquote></p><p> Consumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.</p><p><blockquote>消费者目前的恐慌情绪可能是暂时的。但恐慌情绪本身及其背后的原因发出了一个不祥的信息，投资者不应忽视。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股市不利？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConsumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股市不利？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-24 08:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.</p><p><blockquote>消费者正在发出投资者没有注意到的令人担忧的信号。是时候注意了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.</p><p><blockquote>股市和消费者情绪通常会同步上涨和下跌。以过去的18个月为例。超宽松的全球货币政策、创纪录水平的财政刺激以及不断上升的盈利预测使股市接连创下新高。同样的刺激力量，加上限制社会活动的流行病，帮助美国消费者积累了超过2万亿美元的储蓄，尽管劳动力市场收紧，工资攀升。这些股市上涨让消费者感到更加兴奋，而兴奋的消费者让投资者更加看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&amp;P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，这种相关性已经被打破。随着股市走高，消费者变得不那么乐观，标普500指数周四创下历史新高。正如摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 指出的那样，密歇根大学消费者信心指数在 8 月份跌至 2012 年以来的最低水平后，9 月份仅小幅反弹，至 2020 年 3 月的疫情低点。世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数同样下滑。</blockquote></p><p> The gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，这些读数与股市变化之间的差距仍然异常大。当前读数与未来预期之间的差距也在扩大，这表明消费者并不认为他们的担忧是暂时的。尽管最新一波 Covid-19 感染似乎已经达到顶峰，但信心差距依然存在，这意味着这个故事不仅仅是病毒本身。</blockquote></p><p> So, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.</p><p><blockquote>那么，谁是对的？沙莱特倾向于从消费者的角度出发，她并不孤单。</blockquote></p><p> In a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.</p><p><blockquote>在本月早些时候的一篇论文中，达特茅斯学院经济学教授、英格兰银行货币政策委员会前外部成员大卫-布兰奇弗劳尔（David Blanchflower）和伦敦大学学院定量社会科学教授亚历克斯-布赖森（Alex Bryson）撰文介绍了他们看涨期权的 “走动的经济学”。这个想法是：当地的人们根据自己的经验和他们认识的人的经验拥有关于经济趋势的信息，这使他们能够评估未来的经济趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Their conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.</p><p><blockquote>他们的结论是：经济冲击很难预测，但关于消费者预期的定性指标可以预测经济衰退。他们显示，密歇根大学和世界大型企业联合会的消费者预期指数都预测美国经济将提前18个月出现衰退。他们发现，自 20 世纪 80 年代以来的所有衰退都是通过这些指数至少下降 10 个百分点来预测的。</blockquote></p><p> The Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.</p><p><blockquote>Blanchflower和Bryson说，密歇根州的指标在2021年6月达到峰值，到8月下降了18点，而世界大型企业联合会的指标在2021年3月达到峰值，然后到2021年9月下降了26点。他们说，虽然他们将 2021 年的经济形势看涨期权为 “特殊”，但过去六个月消费者预期的下调表明，美国经济现在正在进入衰退。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”</p><p><blockquote>“布兰奇弗劳尔和布赖森说：”这是一个大胆的看涨期权，与共识不符。“然而，正如大多数政策制定者和经济学家所做的那样，错过了2007年这些变量的下降，事实证明是致命的。”</blockquote></p><p> The reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>情绪恶化背后的原因至少与下滑本身一样重要。调查显示，即使美联储继续否认建筑定价压力，通货膨胀仍是消费者最关心的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Consider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.</p><p><blockquote>以《零售销售》为例，华尔街将这一系列视为消费者旺盛的证据。Bleakley Advisory Group 首席投资官 Peter Boockvar 指出，自 3 月份发出最后一轮刺激支票以来，零售额仅增长了 0.4%，而消费者价格指数则上涨了 3.6%。“布克瓦尔说：”有人可以说，自 3 月份以来的所有零售额，以及一些零售额，都是通货膨胀，而不是销量。</blockquote></p><p> Widespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.</p><p><blockquote>普遍的短缺意味着可以购买的商品减少，但风险在于假设需求只是被推迟。如果消费者在等待汽车、房屋和其他物品变得可用或负担得起时变得越来越谨慎，潜在的消费可能会损失。</blockquote></p><p> People are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学经济学家理查德·科廷表示，尽管无处不在的求助迹象和工资快速增长，但人们也担心就业市场。由于工资增长仍未跟上消费者价格通胀的步伐，工人们可能已经永久性地放弃了在大流行病期间风险更大的工作，并且无法支付足够的费用来支付费用。许多企业正在开辟新的道路--新企业的成立不断激增--这强化了劳动力短缺并非暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p> What is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的结果是什么？“沙莱特说：”如果消费者信心不能迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而令人失望的盈利、支出疲软和储蓄率上升将引发市场疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，在某些地方，持续的劳动力短缺和消费者信心下降交织在一起，建议投资者寻找那些利用更具弹性的需求且对劳动力依赖较少的公司。她更喜欢企业对企业的公司，而不是直接向消费者销售的公司，并表示选股的最佳地点是银行、能源和工业行业。</blockquote></p><p> Consumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.</p><p><blockquote>消费者目前的恐慌情绪可能是暂时的。但恐慌情绪本身及其背后的原因发出了一个不祥的信息，投资者不应忽视。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-economy-stock-market-consumer-confidence-51634943248?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-economy-stock-market-consumer-confidence-51634943248?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197815871","content_text":"Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.\nThe stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.\nRecently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.\nThe gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.\nSo, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.\nIn a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.\nTheir conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.\nThe Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.\n“This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”\nThe reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.\nConsider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.\nWidespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.\nPeople are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.\nWhat is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.\nThere are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.\nConsumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858058597,"gmtCreate":1634955639441,"gmtModify":1634955639855,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fantastic news. Much underrated","listText":"Fantastic news. Much underrated","text":"Fantastic news. Much underrated","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858058597","repostId":"1177255738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177255738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634953820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177255738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir 股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177255738","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于合同规模庞大，Palantir 的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的消息。大局也很重要——PLTR 竞争激烈且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR 是仅有的四家获得 IL-5 国防部认证的公司之一，并正在转向 IL-6，这将进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>就利润而言，该公司似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑 PLTR 的增长前景时，股票仍然可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速发展的科技公司，继续以昂贵的估值进行交易。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，而且 Palantir Technologies 在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够在未来多年实现强劲增长。Palantir Technologies 并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中获得可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10 月初，Palantir Technologies 宣布被美国陆军选中，签订一份价值 8.23 亿美元的合同，该公司将为美国陆军提供陆军情报数据结构和分析基础。<i>能力下降2</i>(CD-2)方案。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前每年产生约15亿美元收入的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该注意的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有收入。最重要的是，不一定所有的收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商，例如硬件供应商，也可能从合同中分得一部分份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在 2022 财年为该合同拨款约 1 亿美元，这表明 Palantir 需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论员认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，合同可能会授予另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir 要求全公司毛利率超过 70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单一合同也表明，官员们认为 Palantir 有能力交付大规模合同，尽管就收入和雇主而言，Palantir Technologies 目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信 Palantir 能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来又表明 Palantir 未来应该有很好的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies 是仅有的四家获得国防部 5 级 (IL-5) SaaS 批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了 Palantir 在国防领域相对于潜在竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就给了 Palantir 相对于未获得如此关键服务批准的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦 Palantir 获得 IL-6 批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir 相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir 管理层相信，这将在可预见的未来发生，并且 Palantir 可能会成为第一家获得 IL-6 整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是 Palantir Technologies 的巨大市场机会：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（报告全文第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能R&amp;D投资将增长到接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法解决所有这些市场，因为这包括硬件、实施等。，但即使是几个百分点的市场份额也会变成每年10多亿美元的业务。考虑到国防只是 Palantir Technologies 能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞 - 特别是当我们考虑到 Palantir 今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为 15 亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>由于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies 已经证明美国陆军合同并不是一个例外。相反，Palantir 似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这还远不能保证，但我确实相信 Palantir 在未来许多年里具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会对商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才（这就是为什么基于股票的薪酬如此之高，因为这种人才是昂贵的），Palantir 应该能够在整个 2020 年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为 2024 年收入将达到 40 亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为一家上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir 在两条线上都四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常清晰的业绩超出预期的记录。当然，不能保证未来也会发生这种情况，但我确实相信 Palantir 很有可能在 2024 年产生超过 40 亿美元的收入。让我们仍然采用 40 亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长 30%，2028 年至 2030 年间增长 25%。如果发生这种情况，那么 Palantir 将在 2030 年产生 170 亿美元的收入，这将在 9 年内增长约 11 倍。一家年销售额为 170 亿美元、收入增长 25% 的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软 (MSFT)、Salesforce.com (CRM) 和 Adobe (ADBE) 等主要软件公司目前的销售额增长了 15%-25%，目前的交易额是今年销售额的 11 倍至 19 倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir 的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我认为 15 倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据 170 亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到 2550 亿美元，大约是今天 480 亿美元市值的 5.3 倍。然而，这并不意味着 PLTR 的股价将上涨 430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股数，该公司的股数一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难准确预测九年后的股票数量将处于什么位置，因为我们不知道未来基于股票的薪酬的轨迹，而且 PLTR 可能会在未来开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加 1 亿股（根据 YCharts 的数据，去年股票数量增加了 8000 万股），那么到 2030 年，股票数量约为 29 亿股。基于 2550 亿美元的预期市值，这使得我们的股价约为 90 美元，大约是今天的 3.5 倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得约 250% 的 9 年回报率，即每年约 15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有 AMZN (AMZN) 所获得的回报那么出色，但我相信 15% 左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有人可能会说这种情况不现实，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个坚实的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到 Palantir Technologies 在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请采取保守的立场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 股票：现在是买入还是卖出的好时机？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要涵盖的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir 是一只非常不同的股票。按当前价格计算，PLTR 乍一看相当昂贵，交易价格约为远期市盈率的 150 倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦 PLTR 获得 IL-6 国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他以高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久证明，我们也不知道基于股票的薪酬支出的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信 Palantir 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以提供两位数的总回报，并且由于其庞大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies 是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果看到 PLTR 在本十年末至少增长两倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入流吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收入投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的整体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力的、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir 股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir 股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-23 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于合同规模庞大，Palantir 的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的消息。大局也很重要——PLTR 竞争激烈且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR 是仅有的四家获得 IL-5 国防部认证的公司之一，并正在转向 IL-6，这将进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>就利润而言，该公司似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑 PLTR 的增长前景时，股票仍然可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速发展的科技公司，继续以昂贵的估值进行交易。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，而且 Palantir Technologies 在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够在未来多年实现强劲增长。Palantir Technologies 并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中获得可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10 月初，Palantir Technologies 宣布被美国陆军选中，签订一份价值 8.23 亿美元的合同，该公司将为美国陆军提供陆军情报数据结构和分析基础。<i>能力下降2</i>(CD-2)方案。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前每年产生约15亿美元收入的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该注意的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有收入。最重要的是，不一定所有的收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商，例如硬件供应商，也可能从合同中分得一部分份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在 2022 财年为该合同拨款约 1 亿美元，这表明 Palantir 需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论员认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，合同可能会授予另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir 要求全公司毛利率超过 70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单一合同也表明，官员们认为 Palantir 有能力交付大规模合同，尽管就收入和雇主而言，Palantir Technologies 目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信 Palantir 能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来又表明 Palantir 未来应该有很好的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies 是仅有的四家获得国防部 5 级 (IL-5) SaaS 批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了 Palantir 在国防领域相对于潜在竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就给了 Palantir 相对于未获得如此关键服务批准的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦 Palantir 获得 IL-6 批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir 相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir 管理层相信，这将在可预见的未来发生，并且 Palantir 可能会成为第一家获得 IL-6 整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是 Palantir Technologies 的巨大市场机会：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（报告全文第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能R&amp;D投资将增长到接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法解决所有这些市场，因为这包括硬件、实施等。，但即使是几个百分点的市场份额也会变成每年10多亿美元的业务。考虑到国防只是 Palantir Technologies 能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞 - 特别是当我们考虑到 Palantir 今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为 15 亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>由于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies 已经证明美国陆军合同并不是一个例外。相反，Palantir 似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这还远不能保证，但我确实相信 Palantir 在未来许多年里具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会对商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才（这就是为什么基于股票的薪酬如此之高，因为这种人才是昂贵的），Palantir 应该能够在整个 2020 年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为 2024 年收入将达到 40 亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为一家上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir 在两条线上都四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常清晰的业绩超出预期的记录。当然，不能保证未来也会发生这种情况，但我确实相信 Palantir 很有可能在 2024 年产生超过 40 亿美元的收入。让我们仍然采用 40 亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长 30%，2028 年至 2030 年间增长 25%。如果发生这种情况，那么 Palantir 将在 2030 年产生 170 亿美元的收入，这将在 9 年内增长约 11 倍。一家年销售额为 170 亿美元、收入增长 25% 的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软 (MSFT)、Salesforce.com (CRM) 和 Adobe (ADBE) 等主要软件公司目前的销售额增长了 15%-25%，目前的交易额是今年销售额的 11 倍至 19 倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir 的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我认为 15 倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据 170 亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到 2550 亿美元，大约是今天 480 亿美元市值的 5.3 倍。然而，这并不意味着 PLTR 的股价将上涨 430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股数，该公司的股数一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难准确预测九年后的股票数量将处于什么位置，因为我们不知道未来基于股票的薪酬的轨迹，而且 PLTR 可能会在未来开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加 1 亿股（根据 YCharts 的数据，去年股票数量增加了 8000 万股），那么到 2030 年，股票数量约为 29 亿股。基于 2550 亿美元的预期市值，这使得我们的股价约为 90 美元，大约是今天的 3.5 倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得约 250% 的 9 年回报率，即每年约 15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有 AMZN (AMZN) 所获得的回报那么出色，但我相信 15% 左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有人可能会说这种情况不现实，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个坚实的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到 Palantir Technologies 在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请采取保守的立场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 股票：现在是买入还是卖出的好时机？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要涵盖的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir 是一只非常不同的股票。按当前价格计算，PLTR 乍一看相当昂贵，交易价格约为远期市盈率的 150 倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦 PLTR 获得 IL-6 国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他以高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久证明，我们也不知道基于股票的薪酬支出的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信 Palantir 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以提供两位数的总回报，并且由于其庞大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies 是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果看到 PLTR 在本十年末至少增长两倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入流吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收入投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的整体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力的、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850647252,"gmtCreate":1634599386720,"gmtModify":1634599387238,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850647252","repostId":"1102303107","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102303107","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634598982,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102303107?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 07:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's New Mac Chips Are Setting High Bar for Intel<blockquote>为什么苹果的新 Mac 芯片为英特尔设定了高标准</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102303107","media":"Barrons","summary":"Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger wants the firm to make chips so good that they can win back Apple’s Macbook ","content":"<p>Intel&nbsp;CEO Pat Gelsinger wants the firm to make chips so good that they can win back&nbsp;Apple’s&nbsp;Macbook business.Monday’s Apple event&nbsp;showcased why that’s such a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔首席执行官帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）希望公司能制造出如此出色的芯片，以便赢回苹果的 Macbook 业务。周一在苹果举行的活动展示了为什么这是一个如此大的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino, Calif., technology giant unveiled new Macbook Pro laptops that feature the new M1 Pro and higher-end M1 Max processors. It said the latter has a 10-core chip design and is 70% faster than the older M1 chip. The M1 Max has 32 cores and delivers twice the bandwidth of the M1 Pro.</p><p><blockquote>这家加州库比蒂诺的科技巨头推出了新的Macbook Pro笔记本电脑，采用新的M1 Pro和高端M1 Max处理器。它表示，后者采用10核芯片设计，比旧的M1芯片快70%。M1 Max有32个核心，带宽是M1 Pro的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> “These are the most advanced chips coming from Apple and are a big step up from the original M1 chip launched almost a year ago, serving as anothermajor shot across the board at chip stalwarts given the innovation coming out ofCupertino,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“Wedbush 分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）周一写道：”这些是来自苹果的最先进的芯片，比近一年前推出的原始 M1 芯片迈出了一大步，鉴于库比蒂诺的创新成果，这是对芯片中坚力量的又一次全面打击。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger, who becameIntel‘s chief earlier this year,said on an episode of “Axios on HBO”&nbsp;that Apple&nbsp;decided they could make a chip better&nbsp;than Intel could. During the interview, which aired Sunday, Gelsinger was referring to Apple’s M1 chip, which was unveiled in November 2020 and was praised by&nbsp;investors and tech enthusiasts, alike.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候成为英特尔首席执行官的基辛格在 “HBO 上的 Axios ”节目中说，苹果认为他们可以制造出比英特尔更好的芯片。在周日播出的采访中，基尔辛格提到了苹果的 M1 芯片，该芯片于 2020 年 11 月亮相，受到了投资者和科技爱好者的一致好评。</blockquote></p><p> “And, you know, they did a pretty good job,” Gelsinger said on the program. “So what I have to do is create a better chip than they can do themselves. I would hope to win back this piece of their business, as well as many other pieces of business, over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“盖尔辛格在节目中说：”你知道，他们做得相当不错。“因此，我要做的就是制造出比他们自己更好的芯片。我希望随着时间的推移，能赢回他们的这部分业务，以及其他许多业务。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives called the M1 Pro and and M1 Max the stars of Monday’s event, which also featured updated Airpods and HomePro Mini smart speakers. Raymond James analyst Chris Caso said the Macbook Pro chips completed Apple’s expected move from Intel platforms.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯称 M1 Pro 和 M1 Max 是周一活动的明星，活动还包括更新的 Airpods 和 HomePro Mini 智能音箱。Raymond James 分析师 Chris Caso 表示，Macbook Pro 芯片完成了苹果从英特尔平台的预期转移。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock rose 1.2% to $146.55 in Monday trading. Intel shares closed up just one cent higher—essentially flat—at $54.47.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一交易中上涨 1.2%，至 146.55 美元。英特尔股价收盘仅上涨 1 美分，基本持平，至 54.47 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “[Apple] can now stand on its own in leading edge compute performance, that they can be fully independent from Intel, and that independence provides Apple with a competitive advantage,” Caso added.</p><p><blockquote>“卡索补充说：”[苹果]现在可以在领先的计算性能方面独立自主，他们可以完全独立于英特尔，这种独立性为苹果提供了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> For Intel, the new Apple chips set an ever higher bar to clear. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani notes that the M1 was already viewed as a market leader.</p><p><blockquote>对于英特尔来说，新的苹果芯片设定了一个更高的门槛。Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 指出，M1 已被视为市场领导者。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple is really lapping the competition with its latest offerings,” Daryanani added.</p><p><blockquote>“达里亚纳尼补充说：”苹果的最新产品确实在竞争中大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> To Gelsinger’s credit, Intel has&nbsp;taken bold steps&nbsp;to turn things around. He&nbsp;said in March&nbsp;Intel would invest $20 billion to build two chip fabrications cites in Arizona. While Intel&nbsp;has its skeptics, 15 of the 40 analysts covering it have Buy or equivalent ratings, while another 15 have Hold or equivalent ratings, according to FactSet. The FactSet mean target price of $61.83 implies 14% upside from recent levels. But like its ambitions with topping Apple’s own processors, the company is&nbsp;still playing catch-up.</p><p><blockquote>值得称赞的是，英特尔采取了大胆的措施来扭转局面。他在3月份表示，英特尔将投资200亿美元在亚利桑那州建设两个芯片制造工厂。FactSet 的数据显示，虽然英特尔有其怀疑论者，但对其进行调查的 40 名分析师中有 15 名给予买入或同等评级，另有 15 名给予持有或同等评级。FactSet 的平均目标价为 61.83 美元，意味着较近期水平上涨 14%。但就像它超越苹果自己的处理器的雄心壮志一样，该公司仍在迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's New Mac Chips Are Setting High Bar for Intel<blockquote>为什么苹果的新 Mac 芯片为英特尔设定了高标准</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's New Mac Chips Are Setting High Bar for Intel<blockquote>为什么苹果的新 Mac 芯片为英特尔设定了高标准</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 07:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intel&nbsp;CEO Pat Gelsinger wants the firm to make chips so good that they can win back&nbsp;Apple’s&nbsp;Macbook business.Monday’s Apple event&nbsp;showcased why that’s such a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔首席执行官帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）希望公司能制造出如此出色的芯片，以便赢回苹果的 Macbook 业务。周一在苹果举行的活动展示了为什么这是一个如此大的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino, Calif., technology giant unveiled new Macbook Pro laptops that feature the new M1 Pro and higher-end M1 Max processors. It said the latter has a 10-core chip design and is 70% faster than the older M1 chip. The M1 Max has 32 cores and delivers twice the bandwidth of the M1 Pro.</p><p><blockquote>这家加州库比蒂诺的科技巨头推出了新的Macbook Pro笔记本电脑，采用新的M1 Pro和高端M1 Max处理器。它表示，后者采用10核芯片设计，比旧的M1芯片快70%。M1 Max有32个核心，带宽是M1 Pro的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> “These are the most advanced chips coming from Apple and are a big step up from the original M1 chip launched almost a year ago, serving as anothermajor shot across the board at chip stalwarts given the innovation coming out ofCupertino,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“Wedbush 分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）周一写道：”这些是来自苹果的最先进的芯片，比近一年前推出的原始 M1 芯片迈出了一大步，鉴于库比蒂诺的创新成果，这是对芯片中坚力量的又一次全面打击。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger, who becameIntel‘s chief earlier this year,said on an episode of “Axios on HBO”&nbsp;that Apple&nbsp;decided they could make a chip better&nbsp;than Intel could. During the interview, which aired Sunday, Gelsinger was referring to Apple’s M1 chip, which was unveiled in November 2020 and was praised by&nbsp;investors and tech enthusiasts, alike.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候成为英特尔首席执行官的基辛格在 “HBO 上的 Axios ”节目中说，苹果认为他们可以制造出比英特尔更好的芯片。在周日播出的采访中，基尔辛格提到了苹果的 M1 芯片，该芯片于 2020 年 11 月亮相，受到了投资者和科技爱好者的一致好评。</blockquote></p><p> “And, you know, they did a pretty good job,” Gelsinger said on the program. “So what I have to do is create a better chip than they can do themselves. I would hope to win back this piece of their business, as well as many other pieces of business, over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“盖尔辛格在节目中说：”你知道，他们做得相当不错。“因此，我要做的就是制造出比他们自己更好的芯片。我希望随着时间的推移，能赢回他们的这部分业务，以及其他许多业务。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives called the M1 Pro and and M1 Max the stars of Monday’s event, which also featured updated Airpods and HomePro Mini smart speakers. Raymond James analyst Chris Caso said the Macbook Pro chips completed Apple’s expected move from Intel platforms.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯称 M1 Pro 和 M1 Max 是周一活动的明星，活动还包括更新的 Airpods 和 HomePro Mini 智能音箱。Raymond James 分析师 Chris Caso 表示，Macbook Pro 芯片完成了苹果从英特尔平台的预期转移。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock rose 1.2% to $146.55 in Monday trading. Intel shares closed up just one cent higher—essentially flat—at $54.47.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一交易中上涨 1.2%，至 146.55 美元。英特尔股价收盘仅上涨 1 美分，基本持平，至 54.47 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “[Apple] can now stand on its own in leading edge compute performance, that they can be fully independent from Intel, and that independence provides Apple with a competitive advantage,” Caso added.</p><p><blockquote>“卡索补充说：”[苹果]现在可以在领先的计算性能方面独立自主，他们可以完全独立于英特尔，这种独立性为苹果提供了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> For Intel, the new Apple chips set an ever higher bar to clear. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani notes that the M1 was already viewed as a market leader.</p><p><blockquote>对于英特尔来说，新的苹果芯片设定了一个更高的门槛。Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 指出，M1 已被视为市场领导者。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple is really lapping the competition with its latest offerings,” Daryanani added.</p><p><blockquote>“达里亚纳尼补充说：”苹果的最新产品确实在竞争中大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> To Gelsinger’s credit, Intel has&nbsp;taken bold steps&nbsp;to turn things around. He&nbsp;said in March&nbsp;Intel would invest $20 billion to build two chip fabrications cites in Arizona. While Intel&nbsp;has its skeptics, 15 of the 40 analysts covering it have Buy or equivalent ratings, while another 15 have Hold or equivalent ratings, according to FactSet. The FactSet mean target price of $61.83 implies 14% upside from recent levels. But like its ambitions with topping Apple’s own processors, the company is&nbsp;still playing catch-up.</p><p><blockquote>值得称赞的是，英特尔采取了大胆的措施来扭转局面。他在3月份表示，英特尔将投资200亿美元在亚利桑那州建设两个芯片制造工厂。FactSet 的数据显示，虽然英特尔有其怀疑论者，但对其进行调查的 40 名分析师中有 15 名给予买入或同等评级，另有 15 名给予持有或同等评级。FactSet 的平均目标价为 61.83 美元，意味着较近期水平上涨 14%。但就像它超越苹果自己的处理器的雄心壮志一样，该公司仍在迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intels-ceo-wants-to-win-back-apple-new-macbook-pro-chips-show-why-its-easier-said-than-done-51634595554?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intels-ceo-wants-to-win-back-apple-new-macbook-pro-chips-show-why-its-easier-said-than-done-51634595554?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102303107","content_text":"Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger wants the firm to make chips so good that they can win back Apple’s Macbook business.Monday’s Apple event showcased why that’s such a challenge.\nThe Cupertino, Calif., technology giant unveiled new Macbook Pro laptops that feature the new M1 Pro and higher-end M1 Max processors. It said the latter has a 10-core chip design and is 70% faster than the older M1 chip. The M1 Max has 32 cores and delivers twice the bandwidth of the M1 Pro.\n“These are the most advanced chips coming from Apple and are a big step up from the original M1 chip launched almost a year ago, serving as anothermajor shot across the board at chip stalwarts given the innovation coming out ofCupertino,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote on Monday.\nGelsinger, who becameIntel‘s chief earlier this year,said on an episode of “Axios on HBO” that Apple decided they could make a chip better than Intel could. During the interview, which aired Sunday, Gelsinger was referring to Apple’s M1 chip, which was unveiled in November 2020 and was praised by investors and tech enthusiasts, alike.\n“And, you know, they did a pretty good job,” Gelsinger said on the program. “So what I have to do is create a better chip than they can do themselves. I would hope to win back this piece of their business, as well as many other pieces of business, over time.”\nIves called the M1 Pro and and M1 Max the stars of Monday’s event, which also featured updated Airpods and HomePro Mini smart speakers. Raymond James analyst Chris Caso said the Macbook Pro chips completed Apple’s expected move from Intel platforms.\nApple stock rose 1.2% to $146.55 in Monday trading. Intel shares closed up just one cent higher—essentially flat—at $54.47.\n“[Apple] can now stand on its own in leading edge compute performance, that they can be fully independent from Intel, and that independence provides Apple with a competitive advantage,” Caso added.\nFor Intel, the new Apple chips set an ever higher bar to clear. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani notes that the M1 was already viewed as a market leader.\n“Apple is really lapping the competition with its latest offerings,” Daryanani added.\nTo Gelsinger’s credit, Intel has taken bold steps to turn things around. He said in March Intel would invest $20 billion to build two chip fabrications cites in Arizona. While Intel has its skeptics, 15 of the 40 analysts covering it have Buy or equivalent ratings, while another 15 have Hold or equivalent ratings, according to FactSet. The FactSet mean target price of $61.83 implies 14% upside from recent levels. But like its ambitions with topping Apple’s own processors, the company is still playing catch-up.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827540726,"gmtCreate":1634512720972,"gmtModify":1634512877122,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827540726","repostId":"1143573112","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826530045,"gmtCreate":1634035064119,"gmtModify":1634035064590,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good step","listText":"Good step","text":"Good step","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826530045","repostId":"2174381311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826597250,"gmtCreate":1634034999326,"gmtModify":1634034999734,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good timing","listText":"Good timing","text":"Good timing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826597250","repostId":"1175125547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867654008,"gmtCreate":1633260332874,"gmtModify":1633260333343,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867654008","repostId":"1195986801","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195986801","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633237941,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195986801?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-03 13:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以戳破</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195986801","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\". The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla shares.The Tesla Thesis:Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 241,000 beat even the bull-case whisper number on the Street, analyst Ives said in a note. The strength, the analyst said, was driven byrobust Model 3/Y salesof 232, 000.Total produ","content":"<p><div> Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\" The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives ...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管周围动荡，特斯拉公司周六公布的季度交付量仍创下历史新高。Wedbush Securities 的一位分析师认为这一业绩“巨大”。特斯拉分析师：Daniel Ives...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以戳破</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以戳破</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-03 13:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\" The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives ...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管周围动荡，特斯拉公司周六公布的季度交付量仍创下历史新高。Wedbush Securities 的一位分析师认为这一业绩“巨大”。特斯拉分析师：Daniel Ives...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195986801","content_text":"Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\"\nThe Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla shares.\nThe Tesla Thesis:Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 241,000 beat even the bull-case whisper number on the Street, analyst Ives said in a note. The strength, the analyst said, was driven byrobust Model 3/Y salesof 232, 000.\nTotal production in the quarter was 238,000, about 10,000 ahead of Wedbush's and Street estimates, the analyst said.\n\"Taking a step back, with the chip shortage a major overhang on the auto space and logistical issues globally, these delivery numbers were \"eye-popping\" and speak to an EV demand trajectory that looks quite robust for Tesla heading into 4Q and 2022,\" Ives wrote in the note.\nWedbush's estimate of 150,000 deliveries for September, according to the analyst, is a clear indicator of the green tidal wave taking hold for Tesla across the board. China demand may have rebounded in the quarter and will be a focus for the bulls digesting these results, he added.\n\"In a nutshell, these numbers are hard to poke holes in and will be a major feather in the cap for the bulls on Monday morning and should improve broader sentiment on the EV space as a whole,\" Wedbush said.\nTesla Price Action:Tesla shares closed Friday's session down 0.03% at $775.22 and were down an incremental 0.03% in after-hours 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benefit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887460430","repostId":"2168503449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887460166,"gmtCreate":1632094015455,"gmtModify":1632802960500,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pushing the limits","listText":"Pushing the limits","text":"Pushing the limits","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887460166","repostId":"1152329139","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152329139","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632092521,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152329139?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk’s Push to Expand Tesla’s Driver Assistance to Cities Rankles a Top Safety Authority<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）推动将特斯拉的驾驶辅助服务扩展到城市，这激怒了最高安全机构</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152329139","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Tesla plans to expand access to Full Self-Driving system and defends its tech; safety official says ","content":"<p>Tesla plans to expand access to Full Self-Driving system and defends its tech; safety official says more work is needed</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉计划扩大全自动驾驶系统的使用范围，并捍卫其技术；安全官员表示需要更多工作</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3779fc89f9337742d0226e15b26ce495\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"860\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla has been augmenting its advanced driver-assistance software over the years.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>多年来，特斯拉一直在增强其先进的驾驶辅助软件。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;is readying a major upgrade of its driver-assistance software, but the top federal crash investigator says the move might be premature.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司正准备对其驾驶辅助软件进行重大升级，但联邦最高碰撞调查员表示，此举可能为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Chief Executive&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;last week said drivers would soon be able to request an enhanced version of what Tesla calls its “Full Self-Driving Capability.” The upgrade is expected to add a feature intended to help vehicles navigate cities, expanding the suite of driver-assistance tools that had been designed mainly for highways.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）上周表示，司机们很快就可以要求特斯拉-评级（Elon Musk）的 “全自动驾驶能力 ”增强版。此次升级预计将增加一项旨在帮助车辆在城市中导航的功能，扩展主要为高速公路设计的驾驶员辅助工具套件。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its name, Full Self-Driving&nbsp;doesn’t make cars fully autonomous, and Tesla instructs drivers to remain alert, with their hands on the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>尽管名为“全自动驾驶”，但它并不能让汽车完全自动驾驶，特斯拉指示驾驶员保持警觉，双手放在方向盘上。</blockquote></p><p> Jennifer Homendy, the new head of the National Transportation Safety Board, said Tesla shouldn’t roll out the city-driving tool before addressing what the agency views as safety deficiencies in the company’s technology. The NTSB, which investigates crashes and issues safety recommendations though it has no regulatory authority, has urged Tesla&nbsp;to clamp down on how drivers are able to use&nbsp;the company’s driver-assistance tools.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家运输安全委员会（National Transportation Safety Board）新任负责人珍妮弗-霍门迪（Jennifer Homendy）表示，在解决该机构认为该公司技术存在的安全缺陷之前，特斯拉不应推出城市驾驶工具。美国国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）虽然没有监管权力，但负责调查车祸并发布安全建议，该委员会敦促特斯拉严厉打击司机使用该公司驾驶辅助工具的方式。</blockquote></p><p> “Basic safety issues have to be addressed before they’re then expanding it to other city streets and other areas,” she said in an interview. Ms. Homendy also expressed concern about how Tesla software is tested on public roadways.</p><p><blockquote>“她在接受采访时说：”在将基本安全问题扩展到其他城市街道和其他地区之前，必须先解决基本的安全问题。霍门迪女士还对特斯拉软件如何在公共道路上进行测试表示担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f77285be2e13c4412aca20f9ce6bc3\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"701\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors’ belief in the promise of Tesla’s automation technology has helped transform the company into the world’s most valuable auto maker.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者对特斯拉自动化技术前景的信心帮助该公司转变为世界上最有价值的汽车制造商。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ms. Homendy called Tesla’s use of the term Full Self-Driving “misleading and irresponsible,” adding that people pay more attention to marketing than to warnings in car manuals or on a company’s website. In Tesla’s case, she said, “It has clearly misled numerous people to misuse and abuse technology.”</p><p><blockquote>霍门迪女士称特斯拉使用全自动驾驶一词是 “误导和不负责任的”，并补充说，人们更关注营销，而不是汽车手册或公司网站上的警告。她说，就特斯拉而言，“这显然误导了许多人滥用和滥用技术”。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Musk has said Tesla’s advanced driver-assistance features prevent crashes and make driving safer. He&nbsp;has expressed mixed views&nbsp;about the Full Self-Driving system in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克先生表示，特斯拉先进的驾驶辅助功能可以防止碰撞，使驾驶更加安全。近几个月来，他对全自动驾驶系统表达了不同的看法。</blockquote></p><p> “We need to make full self-driving work in order for it to be a compelling value proposition. Otherwise people are, you know, kind of betting on the future,” he said in July, responding to a question about customer interest in subscribing to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving package.</p><p><blockquote>“我们需要让全自动驾驶发挥作用，才能使其成为一个引人注目的价值主张。否则，人们就会在押注未来，”他在今年 7 月回答有关客户是否有兴趣订阅特斯拉全自动驾驶套餐的问题时说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Some safety advocates and transportation officials have raised concerns that drivers may be overestimating the capabilities of advanced driver-assistance systems such as Tesla’s.</p><p><blockquote>一些安全倡导者和交通官员担心，司机可能高估了特斯拉等先进驾驶辅助系统的功能。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re consistently hearing that it’s definitely a work in progress, so it’s just how do we make sure the public understands its limitations?” Reema Griffith, executive director of the Washington State Transportation Commission, told The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直听说这绝对是一项正在进行的工作，那么我们如何确保公众了解它的局限性呢？”华盛顿州交通委员会执行主任里玛·格里菲斯告诉《华尔街日报》。</blockquote></p><p> Mark Kopko, director of the office of transformational technology at the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, in an interview expressed similar concerns about driver education and called for additional federal guidance.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚州交通部转型技术办公室主任马克·科普科在接受采访时表达了对驾驶员教育的类似担忧，并呼吁联邦政府提供更多指导。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s urban-driving aid so far has only been available to a relatively small circle of employees and customers for testing purposes. The company began releasing a pilot version late last year, according to company correspondence with the California Department of Motor Vehicles, and has been expanding access. The program included about 2,000 Tesla owners as of March, Mr. Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，特斯拉的城市驾驶辅助系统仅提供给相对较小的员工和客户用于测试目的。根据公司与加州机动车辆管理局的通信，该公司去年年底开始发布试点版本，并一直在扩大访问范围。马斯克表示，截至 3 月份，该计划包括约 2,000 名特斯拉车主。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;plans to monitor the driving patterns&nbsp;of the customers who request the enhanced system, Mr. Musk said last week in a tweet, and grant access after seven days of good behavior. Those who aren’t careful will have their access revoked, he said. It wasn’t immediately clear which countries the city-driving feature would be available in.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克上周在一条推文中表示，特斯拉计划监控请求增强系统的客户的驾驶模式，并在七天的良好行为后授予访问权限。他说，那些不小心的人将被吊销访问权限。目前还不清楚城市驾驶功能将在哪些国家推出。</blockquote></p><p> “2000&nbsp;beta users operating&nbsp;for almost a year with no accidents. Needs to stay that way,” Mr. Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“2000 名测试版用户运行了近一年，没有发生任何事故。需要保持这种状态，”马斯克先生说。</blockquote></p><p> The company began deploying advanced driver-assistance software, dubbed Autopilot, to vehicles in 2015 to help with tasks such as steering and adjusting to the flow of traffic on the highway. It has augmented that system over the years, with the goal of eventually enabling its vehicles to operate autonomously.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于 2015 年开始在车辆上部署名为 Autopilot 的高级驾驶员辅助软件，以帮助完成转向和调整高速公路上的交通流量等任务。多年来，该公司一直在扩展该系统，目标是最终使其车辆能够自主运行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla’s new city-driving tool is part of its Full Self-Driving package. Tesla sells the suite for $10,000 or a monthly subscription that costs up to $199. Other features in the Full Self-Driving bundle are already publicly available, including tools that help vehicles change lanes on the highway and slow down at stop signs. New Street Research estimated in July that roughly 360,000 people had purchased the Full Self-Driving system, covering about one-fifth of the Tesla fleet at the time.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的新城市驾驶工具是其全套自动驾驶套件的一部分。特斯拉以 10,000 美元的价格出售该套房，或者每月订阅费高达 199 美元。完整自动驾驶套件中的其他功能已经公开，包括帮助车辆在高速公路上变道和在停车标志处减速的工具。New Street Research 在 7 月份估计，大约有 36 万人购买了完整的自动驾驶系统，约占当时特斯拉车队的五分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ belief in the promise of Tesla’s automation technology has helped to transform the company into the world’s most valuable auto maker, with a market capitalization of around $750 billion, more than five times that of&nbsp;Volkswagen&nbsp;AG. Last year, Volkswagen delivered more than 18 times as many vehicles as Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对特斯拉自动化技术前景的信心帮助该公司成为世界上最有价值的汽车制造商，市值约为 7500 亿美元，是大众汽车公司的五倍多。去年，大众汽车的交付量是特斯拉的 18 倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley, which has a $900 price target for Tesla’s stock, assigned about 28% of that value to a group of services that includes automated driving. The stock closed Friday at $759.49.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利将特斯拉股票的目标价定为 900 美元，其中约 28% 的目标价分配给了包括自动驾驶在内的一系列服务。该股周五收于 759.49 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Musk said this month that “investors&nbsp;are giving us significant credit&nbsp;for achieving self-driving, given that Tesla’s valuation/production is very high compared to other auto makers.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克先生本月表示，“鉴于特斯拉的估值/产量与其他汽车制造商相比非常高，投资者对我们实现自动驾驶给予了高度评价”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s technology has faced increasing scrutiny. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the country’s auto-safety regulator,launched a probe last month&nbsp;after a spate of crashes in which Teslas that had been operating with Autopilot engaged&nbsp;ran into one or more&nbsp;parked emergency vehicles such as police cars. NHTSA has requested a trove of data from Tesla and other auto makers as it seeks to compare advanced driver-assistance systems. The agency also recently began requiring auto makers to report serious crashes involving such features.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的技术面临着越来越多的审查。美国汽车安全监管机构美国国家公路交通安全管理局（National Highway Traffic Safety Administration）上个月展开了调查，此前发生了一系列车祸，在这些车祸中，一直在自动驾驶模式下运行的特斯拉撞上了一辆或多辆停放的紧急车辆，如警车。NHTSA 已要求特斯拉和其他汽车制造商提供大量数据，以比较先进的驾驶辅助系统。该机构最近还开始要求汽车制造商报告涉及此类功能的严重事故。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the California DMV is reviewing whether Tesla violated a state regulation that bars companies from falsely advertising vehicles as autonomous.Democratic lawmakers have asked&nbsp;the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether Tesla has used deceptive marketing practices.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，加州车管所正在审查特斯拉是否违反了禁止公司虚假宣传自动驾驶汽车的州法规。民主党议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉是否使用了欺骗性的营销手段。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Homendy of the NTSB said those with regulatory power should be moving more aggressively to issue appropriate regulations. “Doing investigations after the fact, that’s a tombstone mentality,” she said. “You can proactively address potential future crashes and future deaths by taking action, by issuing regulations, performance standards aimed at saving lives.”</p><p><blockquote>美国国家运输安全委员会的霍门迪女士表示，那些拥有监管权力的机构应该更加积极地发布适当的法规。“她说：”事后才进行调查，这是一种墓碑心态。“您可以采取行动，通过颁布旨在拯救生命的法规和绩效标准，积极主动地解决未来潜在的车祸和死亡问题”。</blockquote></p><p> A NHTSA spokeswoman said the agency was taking steps that were necessary precursors to any new regulatory action.</p><p><blockquote>NHTSA 发言人表示，该机构正在采取措施，这是任何新监管行动的必要前提。</blockquote></p><p> Ken McElhaney Jr., a 61-year-old retired insurance agent, bought Tesla’s upgraded driver-assistance system last year, hoping it would make it easier to travel cross-country as he got older. Mr. McElhaney, who lives in Mobile, Ala., and drives a Model 3 car, said he knew the system was a “work in progress” when he bought it—and that was part of the appeal.</p><p><blockquote>61 岁的退休保险代理人小肯-麦克尔哈尼（Ken McElhaney Jr.McElhaney 先生住在阿拉巴马州莫比尔，驾驶着一辆 Model 3 汽车，他说他在购买该系统时就知道该系统是 “正在开发中的工作”，这也是它的吸引力之一。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a little bit like going to a restaurant on a soft opening,” he said. “It’s kind of fun to be in early, but you understand they’re still working out the kinks.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这有点像去试营业的餐馆。“早到是一件很有趣的事，但你也知道他们还在解决问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk’s Push to Expand Tesla’s Driver Assistance to Cities Rankles a Top Safety Authority<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）推动将特斯拉的驾驶辅助服务扩展到城市，这激怒了最高安全机构</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk’s Push to Expand Tesla’s Driver Assistance to Cities Rankles a Top Safety Authority<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）推动将特斯拉的驾驶辅助服务扩展到城市，这激怒了最高安全机构</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla plans to expand access to Full Self-Driving system and defends its tech; safety official says more work is needed</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉计划扩大全自动驾驶系统的使用范围，并捍卫其技术；安全官员表示需要更多工作</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3779fc89f9337742d0226e15b26ce495\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"860\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla has been augmenting its advanced driver-assistance software over the years.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>多年来，特斯拉一直在增强其先进的驾驶辅助软件。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;is readying a major upgrade of its driver-assistance software, but the top federal crash investigator says the move might be premature.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司正准备对其驾驶辅助软件进行重大升级，但联邦最高碰撞调查员表示，此举可能为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Chief Executive&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;last week said drivers would soon be able to request an enhanced version of what Tesla calls its “Full Self-Driving Capability.” The upgrade is expected to add a feature intended to help vehicles navigate cities, expanding the suite of driver-assistance tools that had been designed mainly for highways.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）上周表示，司机们很快就可以要求特斯拉-评级（Elon Musk）的 “全自动驾驶能力 ”增强版。此次升级预计将增加一项旨在帮助车辆在城市中导航的功能，扩展主要为高速公路设计的驾驶员辅助工具套件。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its name, Full Self-Driving&nbsp;doesn’t make cars fully autonomous, and Tesla instructs drivers to remain alert, with their hands on the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>尽管名为“全自动驾驶”，但它并不能让汽车完全自动驾驶，特斯拉指示驾驶员保持警觉，双手放在方向盘上。</blockquote></p><p> Jennifer Homendy, the new head of the National Transportation Safety Board, said Tesla shouldn’t roll out the city-driving tool before addressing what the agency views as safety deficiencies in the company’s technology. The NTSB, which investigates crashes and issues safety recommendations though it has no regulatory authority, has urged Tesla&nbsp;to clamp down on how drivers are able to use&nbsp;the company’s driver-assistance tools.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家运输安全委员会（National Transportation Safety Board）新任负责人珍妮弗-霍门迪（Jennifer Homendy）表示，在解决该机构认为该公司技术存在的安全缺陷之前，特斯拉不应推出城市驾驶工具。美国国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）虽然没有监管权力，但负责调查车祸并发布安全建议，该委员会敦促特斯拉严厉打击司机使用该公司驾驶辅助工具的方式。</blockquote></p><p> “Basic safety issues have to be addressed before they’re then expanding it to other city streets and other areas,” she said in an interview. Ms. Homendy also expressed concern about how Tesla software is tested on public roadways.</p><p><blockquote>“她在接受采访时说：”在将基本安全问题扩展到其他城市街道和其他地区之前，必须先解决基本的安全问题。霍门迪女士还对特斯拉软件如何在公共道路上进行测试表示担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f77285be2e13c4412aca20f9ce6bc3\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"701\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors’ belief in the promise of Tesla’s automation technology has helped transform the company into the world’s most valuable auto maker.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者对特斯拉自动化技术前景的信心帮助该公司转变为世界上最有价值的汽车制造商。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ms. Homendy called Tesla’s use of the term Full Self-Driving “misleading and irresponsible,” adding that people pay more attention to marketing than to warnings in car manuals or on a company’s website. In Tesla’s case, she said, “It has clearly misled numerous people to misuse and abuse technology.”</p><p><blockquote>霍门迪女士称特斯拉使用全自动驾驶一词是 “误导和不负责任的”，并补充说，人们更关注营销，而不是汽车手册或公司网站上的警告。她说，就特斯拉而言，“这显然误导了许多人滥用和滥用技术”。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Musk has said Tesla’s advanced driver-assistance features prevent crashes and make driving safer. He&nbsp;has expressed mixed views&nbsp;about the Full Self-Driving system in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克先生表示，特斯拉先进的驾驶辅助功能可以防止碰撞，使驾驶更加安全。近几个月来，他对全自动驾驶系统表达了不同的看法。</blockquote></p><p> “We need to make full self-driving work in order for it to be a compelling value proposition. Otherwise people are, you know, kind of betting on the future,” he said in July, responding to a question about customer interest in subscribing to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving package.</p><p><blockquote>“我们需要让全自动驾驶发挥作用，才能使其成为一个引人注目的价值主张。否则，人们就会在押注未来，”他在今年 7 月回答有关客户是否有兴趣订阅特斯拉全自动驾驶套餐的问题时说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Some safety advocates and transportation officials have raised concerns that drivers may be overestimating the capabilities of advanced driver-assistance systems such as Tesla’s.</p><p><blockquote>一些安全倡导者和交通官员担心，司机可能高估了特斯拉等先进驾驶辅助系统的功能。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re consistently hearing that it’s definitely a work in progress, so it’s just how do we make sure the public understands its limitations?” Reema Griffith, executive director of the Washington State Transportation Commission, told The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直听说这绝对是一项正在进行的工作，那么我们如何确保公众了解它的局限性呢？”华盛顿州交通委员会执行主任里玛·格里菲斯告诉《华尔街日报》。</blockquote></p><p> Mark Kopko, director of the office of transformational technology at the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, in an interview expressed similar concerns about driver education and called for additional federal guidance.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚州交通部转型技术办公室主任马克·科普科在接受采访时表达了对驾驶员教育的类似担忧，并呼吁联邦政府提供更多指导。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s urban-driving aid so far has only been available to a relatively small circle of employees and customers for testing purposes. The company began releasing a pilot version late last year, according to company correspondence with the California Department of Motor Vehicles, and has been expanding access. The program included about 2,000 Tesla owners as of March, Mr. Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，特斯拉的城市驾驶辅助系统仅提供给相对较小的员工和客户用于测试目的。根据公司与加州机动车辆管理局的通信，该公司去年年底开始发布试点版本，并一直在扩大访问范围。马斯克表示，截至 3 月份，该计划包括约 2,000 名特斯拉车主。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;plans to monitor the driving patterns&nbsp;of the customers who request the enhanced system, Mr. Musk said last week in a tweet, and grant access after seven days of good behavior. Those who aren’t careful will have their access revoked, he said. It wasn’t immediately clear which countries the city-driving feature would be available in.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克上周在一条推文中表示，特斯拉计划监控请求增强系统的客户的驾驶模式，并在七天的良好行为后授予访问权限。他说，那些不小心的人将被吊销访问权限。目前还不清楚城市驾驶功能将在哪些国家推出。</blockquote></p><p> “2000&nbsp;beta users operating&nbsp;for almost a year with no accidents. Needs to stay that way,” Mr. Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“2000 名测试版用户运行了近一年，没有发生任何事故。需要保持这种状态，”马斯克先生说。</blockquote></p><p> The company began deploying advanced driver-assistance software, dubbed Autopilot, to vehicles in 2015 to help with tasks such as steering and adjusting to the flow of traffic on the highway. It has augmented that system over the years, with the goal of eventually enabling its vehicles to operate autonomously.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于 2015 年开始在车辆上部署名为 Autopilot 的高级驾驶员辅助软件，以帮助完成转向和调整高速公路上的交通流量等任务。多年来，该公司一直在扩展该系统，目标是最终使其车辆能够自主运行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla’s new city-driving tool is part of its Full Self-Driving package. Tesla sells the suite for $10,000 or a monthly subscription that costs up to $199. Other features in the Full Self-Driving bundle are already publicly available, including tools that help vehicles change lanes on the highway and slow down at stop signs. New Street Research estimated in July that roughly 360,000 people had purchased the Full Self-Driving system, covering about one-fifth of the Tesla fleet at the time.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的新城市驾驶工具是其全套自动驾驶套件的一部分。特斯拉以 10,000 美元的价格出售该套房，或者每月订阅费高达 199 美元。完整自动驾驶套件中的其他功能已经公开，包括帮助车辆在高速公路上变道和在停车标志处减速的工具。New Street Research 在 7 月份估计，大约有 36 万人购买了完整的自动驾驶系统，约占当时特斯拉车队的五分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ belief in the promise of Tesla’s automation technology has helped to transform the company into the world’s most valuable auto maker, with a market capitalization of around $750 billion, more than five times that of&nbsp;Volkswagen&nbsp;AG. Last year, Volkswagen delivered more than 18 times as many vehicles as Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对特斯拉自动化技术前景的信心帮助该公司成为世界上最有价值的汽车制造商，市值约为 7500 亿美元，是大众汽车公司的五倍多。去年，大众汽车的交付量是特斯拉的 18 倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley, which has a $900 price target for Tesla’s stock, assigned about 28% of that value to a group of services that includes automated driving. The stock closed Friday at $759.49.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利将特斯拉股票的目标价定为 900 美元，其中约 28% 的目标价分配给了包括自动驾驶在内的一系列服务。该股周五收于 759.49 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Musk said this month that “investors&nbsp;are giving us significant credit&nbsp;for achieving self-driving, given that Tesla’s valuation/production is very high compared to other auto makers.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克先生本月表示，“鉴于特斯拉的估值/产量与其他汽车制造商相比非常高，投资者对我们实现自动驾驶给予了高度评价”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s technology has faced increasing scrutiny. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the country’s auto-safety regulator,launched a probe last month&nbsp;after a spate of crashes in which Teslas that had been operating with Autopilot engaged&nbsp;ran into one or more&nbsp;parked emergency vehicles such as police cars. NHTSA has requested a trove of data from Tesla and other auto makers as it seeks to compare advanced driver-assistance systems. The agency also recently began requiring auto makers to report serious crashes involving such features.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的技术面临着越来越多的审查。美国汽车安全监管机构美国国家公路交通安全管理局（National Highway Traffic Safety Administration）上个月展开了调查，此前发生了一系列车祸，在这些车祸中，一直在自动驾驶模式下运行的特斯拉撞上了一辆或多辆停放的紧急车辆，如警车。NHTSA 已要求特斯拉和其他汽车制造商提供大量数据，以比较先进的驾驶辅助系统。该机构最近还开始要求汽车制造商报告涉及此类功能的严重事故。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the California DMV is reviewing whether Tesla violated a state regulation that bars companies from falsely advertising vehicles as autonomous.Democratic lawmakers have asked&nbsp;the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether Tesla has used deceptive marketing practices.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，加州车管所正在审查特斯拉是否违反了禁止公司虚假宣传自动驾驶汽车的州法规。民主党议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉是否使用了欺骗性的营销手段。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Homendy of the NTSB said those with regulatory power should be moving more aggressively to issue appropriate regulations. “Doing investigations after the fact, that’s a tombstone mentality,” she said. “You can proactively address potential future crashes and future deaths by taking action, by issuing regulations, performance standards aimed at saving lives.”</p><p><blockquote>美国国家运输安全委员会的霍门迪女士表示，那些拥有监管权力的机构应该更加积极地发布适当的法规。“她说：”事后才进行调查，这是一种墓碑心态。“您可以采取行动，通过颁布旨在拯救生命的法规和绩效标准，积极主动地解决未来潜在的车祸和死亡问题”。</blockquote></p><p> A NHTSA spokeswoman said the agency was taking steps that were necessary precursors to any new regulatory action.</p><p><blockquote>NHTSA 发言人表示，该机构正在采取措施，这是任何新监管行动的必要前提。</blockquote></p><p> Ken McElhaney Jr., a 61-year-old retired insurance agent, bought Tesla’s upgraded driver-assistance system last year, hoping it would make it easier to travel cross-country as he got older. Mr. McElhaney, who lives in Mobile, Ala., and drives a Model 3 car, said he knew the system was a “work in progress” when he bought it—and that was part of the appeal.</p><p><blockquote>61 岁的退休保险代理人小肯-麦克尔哈尼（Ken McElhaney Jr.McElhaney 先生住在阿拉巴马州莫比尔，驾驶着一辆 Model 3 汽车，他说他在购买该系统时就知道该系统是 “正在开发中的工作”，这也是它的吸引力之一。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a little bit like going to a restaurant on a soft opening,” he said. “It’s kind of fun to be in early, but you understand they’re still working out the kinks.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这有点像去试营业的餐馆。“早到是一件很有趣的事，但你也知道他们还在解决问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-push-to-expand-teslas-driver-assistance-to-cities-rankles-a-top-safety-authority-11632043803?mod=hp_lead_pos4\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-push-to-expand-teslas-driver-assistance-to-cities-rankles-a-top-safety-authority-11632043803?mod=hp_lead_pos4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152329139","content_text":"Tesla plans to expand access to Full Self-Driving system and defends its tech; safety official says more work is needed\nTesla has been augmenting its advanced driver-assistance software over the years.\nTesla Inc. is readying a major upgrade of its driver-assistance software, but the top federal crash investigator says the move might be premature.\nChief Executive Elon Musk last week said drivers would soon be able to request an enhanced version of what Tesla calls its “Full Self-Driving Capability.” The upgrade is expected to add a feature intended to help vehicles navigate cities, expanding the suite of driver-assistance tools that had been designed mainly for highways.\nDespite its name, Full Self-Driving doesn’t make cars fully autonomous, and Tesla instructs drivers to remain alert, with their hands on the wheel.\nJennifer Homendy, the new head of the National Transportation Safety Board, said Tesla shouldn’t roll out the city-driving tool before addressing what the agency views as safety deficiencies in the company’s technology. The NTSB, which investigates crashes and issues safety recommendations though it has no regulatory authority, has urged Tesla to clamp down on how drivers are able to use the company’s driver-assistance tools.\n“Basic safety issues have to be addressed before they’re then expanding it to other city streets and other areas,” she said in an interview. Ms. Homendy also expressed concern about how Tesla software is tested on public roadways.\nInvestors’ belief in the promise of Tesla’s automation technology has helped transform the company into the world’s most valuable auto maker.\nMs. Homendy called Tesla’s use of the term Full Self-Driving “misleading and irresponsible,” adding that people pay more attention to marketing than to warnings in car manuals or on a company’s website. In Tesla’s case, she said, “It has clearly misled numerous people to misuse and abuse technology.”\nMr. Musk has said Tesla’s advanced driver-assistance features prevent crashes and make driving safer. He has expressed mixed views about the Full Self-Driving system in recent months.\n“We need to make full self-driving work in order for it to be a compelling value proposition. Otherwise people are, you know, kind of betting on the future,” he said in July, responding to a question about customer interest in subscribing to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving package.\nTesla didn’t respond to requests for comment.\nSome safety advocates and transportation officials have raised concerns that drivers may be overestimating the capabilities of advanced driver-assistance systems such as Tesla’s.\n“We’re consistently hearing that it’s definitely a work in progress, so it’s just how do we make sure the public understands its limitations?” Reema Griffith, executive director of the Washington State Transportation Commission, told The Wall Street Journal.\nMark Kopko, director of the office of transformational technology at the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, in an interview expressed similar concerns about driver education and called for additional federal guidance.\nTesla’s urban-driving aid so far has only been available to a relatively small circle of employees and customers for testing purposes. The company began releasing a pilot version late last year, according to company correspondence with the California Department of Motor Vehicles, and has been expanding access. The program included about 2,000 Tesla owners as of March, Mr. Musk said.\nTesla plans to monitor the driving patterns of the customers who request the enhanced system, Mr. Musk said last week in a tweet, and grant access after seven days of good behavior. Those who aren’t careful will have their access revoked, he said. It wasn’t immediately clear which countries the city-driving feature would be available in.\n“2000 beta users operating for almost a year with no accidents. Needs to stay that way,” Mr. Musk said.\nThe company began deploying advanced driver-assistance software, dubbed Autopilot, to vehicles in 2015 to help with tasks such as steering and adjusting to the flow of traffic on the highway. It has augmented that system over the years, with the goal of eventually enabling its vehicles to operate autonomously.\nTesla’s new city-driving tool is part of its Full Self-Driving package. Tesla sells the suite for $10,000 or a monthly subscription that costs up to $199. Other features in the Full Self-Driving bundle are already publicly available, including tools that help vehicles change lanes on the highway and slow down at stop signs. New Street Research estimated in July that roughly 360,000 people had purchased the Full Self-Driving system, covering about one-fifth of the Tesla fleet at the time.\nInvestors’ belief in the promise of Tesla’s automation technology has helped to transform the company into the world’s most valuable auto maker, with a market capitalization of around $750 billion, more than five times that of Volkswagen AG. Last year, Volkswagen delivered more than 18 times as many vehicles as Tesla.\nMorgan Stanley, which has a $900 price target for Tesla’s stock, assigned about 28% of that value to a group of services that includes automated driving. The stock closed Friday at $759.49.\nMr. Musk said this month that “investors are giving us significant credit for achieving self-driving, given that Tesla’s valuation/production is very high compared to other auto makers.”\nTesla’s technology has faced increasing scrutiny. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the country’s auto-safety regulator,launched a probe last month after a spate of crashes in which Teslas that had been operating with Autopilot engaged ran into one or more parked emergency vehicles such as police cars. NHTSA has requested a trove of data from Tesla and other auto makers as it seeks to compare advanced driver-assistance systems. The agency also recently began requiring auto makers to report serious crashes involving such features.\nMeanwhile, the California DMV is reviewing whether Tesla violated a state regulation that bars companies from falsely advertising vehicles as autonomous.Democratic lawmakers have asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether Tesla has used deceptive marketing practices.\nMs. Homendy of the NTSB said those with regulatory power should be moving more aggressively to issue appropriate regulations. “Doing investigations after the fact, that’s a tombstone mentality,” she said. “You can proactively address potential future crashes and future deaths by taking action, by issuing regulations, performance standards aimed at saving lives.”\nA NHTSA spokeswoman said the agency was taking steps that were necessary precursors to any new regulatory action.\nKen McElhaney Jr., a 61-year-old retired insurance agent, bought Tesla’s upgraded driver-assistance system last year, hoping it would make it easier to travel cross-country as he got older. Mr. McElhaney, who lives in Mobile, Ala., and drives a Model 3 car, said he knew the system was a “work in progress” when he bought it—and that was part of the appeal.\n“It’s a little bit like going to a restaurant on a soft opening,” he said. “It’s kind of fun to be in early, but you understand they’re still working out the kinks.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887256797,"gmtCreate":1632052829419,"gmtModify":1632803119154,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Haven't suffered long enough","listText":"Haven't suffered long enough","text":"Haven't suffered long enough","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887256797","repostId":"2168508161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":830612621,"gmtCreate":1629070354663,"gmtModify":1633687717721,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes good","listText":"Yes good","text":"Yes good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830612621","repostId":"1111596611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174830805,"gmtCreate":1627089487607,"gmtModify":1633768122493,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"More to go","listText":"More to go","text":"More to go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174830805","repostId":"2153989989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194421303,"gmtCreate":1621394358302,"gmtModify":1634189498400,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"He has his way...","listText":"He has his way...","text":"He has his way...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194421303","repostId":"2136996504","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354104843,"gmtCreate":1617149480882,"gmtModify":1634522437486,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Way to go","listText":"Way to go","text":"Way to go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354104843","repostId":"2123412248","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353778581,"gmtCreate":1616542677943,"gmtModify":1634525325415,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Another good ev in the making","listText":"Another good ev in the making","text":"Another good ev in the making","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353778581","repostId":"1152387358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839691462,"gmtCreate":1629155253056,"gmtModify":1633687067111,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good for all","listText":"Good for all","text":"Good for all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839691462","repostId":"1132782904","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132782904","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629154076,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132782904?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 06:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent Music earnings beat estimates on subscriber, ad boost<blockquote>腾讯控股音乐盈利因订户和广告增长超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132782904","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)\nTencent Music fell over 8% in morning trading Tuesday.\n\nCh","content":"<p><i>(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 8 月 16 日上午 9:41）</i></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a> fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;8%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯控股音乐</a>周二早盘交易中下跌超过 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04723d8ee28ade3b89d17c69d5941e40\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China's Tencent Music Entertainment Group(TME.N)beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit on Monday as its advertising business rebounded and more people subscribed to its music streaming platform.</p><p><blockquote>中国腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团(TME.N)周一第二季度利润超出华尔街预期，原因是其广告业务反弹，且更多人订阅了其音乐流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> Paid subscribers for the company's online music service grew by 41% to 66.2 million, thanks to investments in long-form audio and a refreshed music library expanded by licensing deals with Universal Music Group, Sony Music and other labels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在线音乐服务的付费订户增长了 41%，达到 6620 万，这要归功于对长格式音频的投资以及通过与环球音乐集团、索尼音乐和其他唱片公司的授权协议扩大的更新音乐库。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music shares were up 3.1% in extended trading. They have lost half of their market value this year due to a ruling that barred the company's parent, Tencent Holdings Ltd, from exclusive music copyright agreements.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐股价在盘后交易中上涨3.1%。由于一项裁决禁止该公司的母公司腾讯控股控股有限公司签订独家音乐版权协议，他们今年已经损失了一半的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f85b9406d6ed4f369df89d7ec11fd9\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said it expected the decision to have some impact on its operations, without specifying a figure.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，预计这一决定将对其运营产生一些影响，但没有具体说明具体数字。</blockquote></p><p> Losing exclusive rights means Tencent Music will likely have to redouble efforts to build a more interactive community while facing a challenge from ByteDance that is using Douyin - the Chinese version of TikTok - to promote music backed by sophisticated algorithms.</p><p><blockquote>失去独家版权意味着腾讯控股音乐可能不得不加倍努力建立一个更具互动性的社区，同时面临来自字节跳动的挑战，字节跳动正在使用抖音（抖音的中国版本）来推广由复杂算法支持的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music's social entertainment services business, which includes karaoke platforms where users can live stream concerts, posted a 7.4% rise in revenue to 5.06 billion yuan in the quarter and accounted for most of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐的社交娱乐服务业务（包括用户可以直播音乐会的卡拉OK平台）本季度收入增长7.4%，达到50.6亿元人民币，占其收入的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue rose by 15.5% to 8.01 billion yuan ($1.24 billion), but missed a Refinitiv IBES estimate of 8.13 billion yuan.</p><p><blockquote>总收入增长 15.5%，达到 80.1 亿元人民币（12.4 亿美元），但低于 Refinitiv IBES 预期的 81.3 亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p> The company earned 0.66 yuan per American depository share on an adjusted basis, more than estimates of 0.62 yuan.</p><p><blockquote>调整后，该公司每股美国存托股收益为 0.66 元，高于预期的 0.62 元。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 6.4742 Chinese yuan renminbi)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=6.4742人民币）</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music earnings beat estimates on subscriber, ad boost<blockquote>腾讯控股音乐盈利因订户和广告增长超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music earnings beat estimates on subscriber, ad boost<blockquote>腾讯控股音乐盈利因订户和广告增长超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 06:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 8 月 16 日上午 9:41）</i></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a> fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;8%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯控股音乐</a>周二早盘交易中下跌超过 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04723d8ee28ade3b89d17c69d5941e40\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China's Tencent Music Entertainment Group(TME.N)beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit on Monday as its advertising business rebounded and more people subscribed to its music streaming platform.</p><p><blockquote>中国腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团(TME.N)周一第二季度利润超出华尔街预期，原因是其广告业务反弹，且更多人订阅了其音乐流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> Paid subscribers for the company's online music service grew by 41% to 66.2 million, thanks to investments in long-form audio and a refreshed music library expanded by licensing deals with Universal Music Group, Sony Music and other labels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在线音乐服务的付费订户增长了 41%，达到 6620 万，这要归功于对长格式音频的投资以及通过与环球音乐集团、索尼音乐和其他唱片公司的授权协议扩大的更新音乐库。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music shares were up 3.1% in extended trading. They have lost half of their market value this year due to a ruling that barred the company's parent, Tencent Holdings Ltd, from exclusive music copyright agreements.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐股价在盘后交易中上涨3.1%。由于一项裁决禁止该公司的母公司腾讯控股控股有限公司签订独家音乐版权协议，他们今年已经损失了一半的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f85b9406d6ed4f369df89d7ec11fd9\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said it expected the decision to have some impact on its operations, without specifying a figure.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，预计这一决定将对其运营产生一些影响，但没有具体说明具体数字。</blockquote></p><p> Losing exclusive rights means Tencent Music will likely have to redouble efforts to build a more interactive community while facing a challenge from ByteDance that is using Douyin - the Chinese version of TikTok - to promote music backed by sophisticated algorithms.</p><p><blockquote>失去独家版权意味着腾讯控股音乐可能不得不加倍努力建立一个更具互动性的社区，同时面临来自字节跳动的挑战，字节跳动正在使用抖音（抖音的中国版本）来推广由复杂算法支持的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music's social entertainment services business, which includes karaoke platforms where users can live stream concerts, posted a 7.4% rise in revenue to 5.06 billion yuan in the quarter and accounted for most of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐的社交娱乐服务业务（包括用户可以直播音乐会的卡拉OK平台）本季度收入增长7.4%，达到50.6亿元人民币，占其收入的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue rose by 15.5% to 8.01 billion yuan ($1.24 billion), but missed a Refinitiv IBES estimate of 8.13 billion yuan.</p><p><blockquote>总收入增长 15.5%，达到 80.1 亿元人民币（12.4 亿美元），但低于 Refinitiv IBES 预期的 81.3 亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p> The company earned 0.66 yuan per American depository share on an adjusted basis, more than estimates of 0.62 yuan.</p><p><blockquote>调整后，该公司每股美国存托股收益为 0.66 元，高于预期的 0.62 元。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 6.4742 Chinese yuan renminbi)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=6.4742人民币）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132782904","content_text":"(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)\nTencent Music fell over 8% in morning trading Tuesday.\n\nChina's Tencent Music Entertainment Group(TME.N)beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit on Monday as its advertising business rebounded and more people subscribed to its music streaming platform.\nPaid subscribers for the company's online music service grew by 41% to 66.2 million, thanks to investments in long-form audio and a refreshed music library expanded by licensing deals with Universal Music Group, Sony Music and other labels.\nTencent Music shares were up 3.1% in extended trading. They have lost half of their market value this year due to a ruling that barred the company's parent, Tencent Holdings Ltd, from exclusive music copyright agreements.\n\nThe company said it expected the decision to have some impact on its operations, without specifying a figure.\nLosing exclusive rights means Tencent Music will likely have to redouble efforts to build a more interactive community while facing a challenge from ByteDance that is using Douyin - the Chinese version of TikTok - to promote music backed by sophisticated algorithms.\nTencent Music's social entertainment services business, which includes karaoke platforms where users can live stream concerts, posted a 7.4% rise in revenue to 5.06 billion yuan in the quarter and accounted for most of its revenue.\nTotal revenue rose by 15.5% to 8.01 billion yuan ($1.24 billion), but missed a Refinitiv IBES estimate of 8.13 billion yuan.\nThe company earned 0.66 yuan per American depository share on an adjusted basis, more than estimates of 0.62 yuan.\n($1 = 6.4742 Chinese yuan renminbi)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344730477,"gmtCreate":1618442394299,"gmtModify":1634292965875,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Short term only","listText":"Short term only","text":"Short term only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344730477","repostId":"1186838018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186838018","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618413882,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186838018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electric vehicle stocks were down<blockquote>电动汽车股下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186838018","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 14) Electric vehicle stocks were down. Shares of Nio was down  6.62% to $33.13 and Nio was 3.","content":"<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Electric vehicle stocks were down.&nbsp;Shares of Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;&nbsp;6.62%&nbsp;to&nbsp;$33.13&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;3.14% lower.</p><p><blockquote>（4月14日）电动汽车股下跌。蔚来股价下跌6.62%，至33.13美元，蔚来股价下跌3.14%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4dccabfcd5d058051278d972adbce18\" tg-width=\"294\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features.&nbsp;The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT.&nbsp;Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车于本周三推出了 P5，这是一款具有新自动驾驶功能的轿车。P5 配备了所谓的激光雷达，以辅助小鹏汽车名为 XPILOT 的无人驾驶系统。小鹏汽车希望缩小与特斯拉的差距，并领先于蔚来和理想汽车等其他竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electric vehicle stocks were down<blockquote>电动汽车股下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectric vehicle stocks were down<blockquote>电动汽车股下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-14 23:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Electric vehicle stocks were down.&nbsp;Shares of Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;&nbsp;6.62%&nbsp;to&nbsp;$33.13&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;3.14% lower.</p><p><blockquote>（4月14日）电动汽车股下跌。蔚来股价下跌6.62%，至33.13美元，蔚来股价下跌3.14%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4dccabfcd5d058051278d972adbce18\" tg-width=\"294\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features.&nbsp;The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT.&nbsp;Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车于本周三推出了 P5，这是一款具有新自动驾驶功能的轿车。P5 配备了所谓的激光雷达，以辅助小鹏汽车名为 XPILOT 的无人驾驶系统。小鹏汽车希望缩小与特斯拉的差距，并领先于蔚来和理想汽车等其他竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186838018","content_text":"(April 14) Electric vehicle stocks were down. Shares of Nio was down  6.62% to $33.13 and Nio was 3.14% lower.Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features. The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT. Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":867655411,"gmtCreate":1633260310164,"gmtModify":1633260312617,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good for next pop","listText":"Good for next pop","text":"Good for next pop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867655411","repostId":"2172647479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":897881914,"gmtCreate":1628905642738,"gmtModify":1633688619327,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Certainly sustainable","listText":"Certainly sustainable","text":"Certainly sustainable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897881914","repostId":"1196685545","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148805216,"gmtCreate":1625965011935,"gmtModify":1631885193787,"author":{"id":"3565147372726492","authorId":"3565147372726492","name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565147372726492","idStr":"3565147372726492"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogo","listText":"Gogo","text":"Gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148805216","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}