锐信资本的个人主页 - 老虎社区

锐信资本

锐信资本

职业投资人，清华大学计算机硕士，美国伯克利HAAS商学院MBA，长江商学院 EMBA，CFA；如有问题咨询请私信。

IP属地：四川

4关注

780粉丝

2主题

0勋章

01:48

有些东西可以被修正，但有些东西却永远没办法

有些东西可以被修正，但有些东西却永远没办法

09-09 19:30

A股随时会迎来变盘

A股随时会迎来变盘

09-09 11:50

有投行开始认为本月降50个基点为大概率

有投行开始认为本月降50个基点为大概率

09-08 23:44

最有潜力最好的行业就是投资

最有潜力最好的行业就是投资

09-08 20:45

又一大行强烈看多A股

又一大行强烈看多A股

09-06

美联储今年降息的幅度

美联储今年降息的幅度

09-05

这一轮的走势和我的分析完全一样

这一轮的走势和我的分析完全一样

09-05

今天的美国8月官方就业数据

今天的美国8月官方就业数据

09-05

周五的8月官方就业（大非农）数据会被下修？

周五的8月官方就业（大非农）数据会被下修？

09-04

9.7本周热点讨论会

市场总结与展望热点交流：一、时间：2025年09月07日周日晚20-21:30 二、形式：线上三、内容： 1.Ray的分享 1.1: 美股Q2财报和相关交易 1.2：资金面，情绪面，基本面看9月美国和相关对冲交易 1.3：我对阅兵后A股机会的看法 2.嘉宾分享: 2.1：分享主题黄金和美债的趋势判断和交易机会分享嘉宾： AARON： RAY哥合伙人，国内某头部互联网大咖；多年实盘贵金属，宏观大类品种投资成功经验。私董会成员 2.2：分享主题我对当前美，A， H股以及黄金的趋势看法和交易思路分享嘉宾： Sean：某国内大型私募基金合伙人。私董会成员 3.群友交流当前确定性和讨论

9.7本周热点讨论会

09-04

8月小非农就业数据和本月美联储降息50个基点的可能性

8月小非农就业数据和本月美联储降息50个基点的可能性

09-04

六个数据决定一个国家的经济

六个数据决定一个国家的经济

09-04

美国财政部大量发短债的负面影响

美国财政部大量发短债的负面影响

09-03

9月美联储降息50个基点的可能性

9月美联储降息50个基点的可能性

09-02

A股赚钱85%要靠这个

A股赚钱85%要靠这个

09-02

金银上涨的导火线

金银上涨的导火线

09-01

新的一轮涨价潮就要来了

新的一轮涨价潮就要来了

09-01

德国经济的结构性问题

德国经济的结构性问题

08-30

高盛强烈看多A股

高盛强烈看多A股

08-29

Lisa被废的不冤

Lisa被废的不冤

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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\n \n  美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. SAAS一般是订阅模式，现金流和收入可预测性好。 而且用的Land and Expandion 策略。就是先给客户提供一些小的但是粘性很强的软件服务，然后在客户在你的软件平台上用的越来越多，信任的越来越强。就会买你更多功能。你也更了解客户的需求。 这种战略下，除非出现一些颠覆性的技术或者事件。公司一般开头难做以后是雪球越滚越大。 所以能上市的公司基本都相对稳定，投资的风险也会小一点。 最后：绝大部分美国SAAS公司都是TOB的。在企业客户使用过程发现要么帮企业省钱了要么逐渐变成了企业运作不可缺少的基础设施。 这个特点就让SAAS公司比较不容受到经济周期的影响。这点从很多SAAS公司财报就看的出来。 前两天我给大家说过一个网络安全龙头SAAS公司派拓网络就是这样。这两天发财报的跨平台云服务的SAAS公司Snowflake也是这样。 收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%。这基本是SAAS公司的天花板了。 75%毛利还在提高。 现金流也不错。non-gaap的运营利润率从去年负数到现在正的4%了。 自由现金流利润率同比还提高了10个点。 完全也是看不出来经济下滑对其影响对吧. 也说明我一直视频里面强调美国数据中心，云相关业务现在的确很强。 当然Snowflake也不是没有缺点。最大的不好就是不便宜的。 SAAS公司一般估值都贵，Sn\n \n","listText":"美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. SAAS一般是订阅模式，现金流和收入可预测性好。 而且用的Land and Expandion 策略。就是先给客户提供一些小的但是粘性很强的软件服务，然后在客户在你的软件平台上用的越来越多，信任的越来越强。就会买你更多功能。你也更了解客户的需求。 这种战略下，除非出现一些颠覆性的技术或者事件。公司一般开头难做以后是雪球越滚越大。 所以能上市的公司基本都相对稳定，投资的风险也会小一点。 最后：绝大部分美国SAAS公司都是TOB的。在企业客户使用过程发现要么帮企业省钱了要么逐渐变成了企业运作不可缺少的基础设施。 这个特点就让SAAS公司比较不容受到经济周期的影响。这点从很多SAAS公司财报就看的出来。 前两天我给大家说过一个网络安全龙头SAAS公司派拓网络就是这样。这两天发财报的跨平台云服务的SAAS公司Snowflake也是这样。 收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%。这基本是SAAS公司的天花板了。 75%毛利还在提高。 现金流也不错。non-gaap的运营利润率从去年负数到现在正的4%了。 自由现金流利润率同比还提高了10个点。 完全也是看不出来经济下滑对其影响对吧. 也说明我一直视频里面强调美国数据中心，云相关业务现在的确很强。 当然Snowflake也不是没有缺点。最大的不好就是不便宜的。 SAAS公司一般估值都贵，Sn","text":"美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. SAAS一般是订阅模式，现金流和收入可预测性好。 而且用的Land and Expandion 策略。就是先给客户提供一些小的但是粘性很强的软件服务，然后在客户在你的软件平台上用的越来越多，信任的越来越强。就会买你更多功能。你也更了解客户的需求。 这种战略下，除非出现一些颠覆性的技术或者事件。公司一般开头难做以后是雪球越滚越大。 所以能上市的公司基本都相对稳定，投资的风险也会小一点。 最后：绝大部分美国SAAS公司都是TOB的。在企业客户使用过程发现要么帮企业省钱了要么逐渐变成了企业运作不可缺少的基础设施。 这个特点就让SAAS公司比较不容受到经济周期的影响。这点从很多SAAS公司财报就看的出来。 前两天我给大家说过一个网络安全龙头SAAS公司派拓网络就是这样。这两天发财报的跨平台云服务的SAAS公司Snowflake也是这样。 收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%。这基本是SAAS公司的天花板了。 75%毛利还在提高。 现金流也不错。non-gaap的运营利润率从去年负数到现在正的4%了。 自由现金流利润率同比还提高了10个点。 完全也是看不出来经济下滑对其影响对吧. 也说明我一直视频里面强调美国数据中心，云相关业务现在的确很强。 当然Snowflake也不是没有缺点。最大的不好就是不便宜的。 SAAS公司一般估值都贵，Sn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":239,"commentSize":33,"repostSize":58,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660761920","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"134551e10d6c4b71ab248a1476b3e1b9","tweetId":"660761920","title":"美股Q季报（18）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报\n#美股 #商业思维 #经济 #美国 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\n \n  最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 这个比贷款细节大家看这个表。列出了他在4月份刚签贷款协议和10月份已经特斯拉股价做了1拆三的拆股后他各自要抵押的特斯拉股份数量和股份价值。 核心大家看是这个20%的Loan to Value 就是贷款比上贷款加抵押品的比值简称LTV要求不高于20%。 高了就得补保证金。 第三： 那现在有2。59亿股。 借款125亿。 特斯拉股价到多了LTV就会高于20%要补保证金呢。 这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？&nbsp;\n \n","listText":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 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这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":113,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":14,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623662529","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"5050e0d99ca742b7b8eb35a1c1e165fe","tweetId":"623662529","title":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金\n#特斯拉 #马斯克 #商业思维 #财经 #金融 @DOU+上热门 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\n \n  天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是\n \n","listText":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是","text":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":89,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":6,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661278640","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"57585673e98848f3836be7135e11a456","tweetId":"661278640","title":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说\n#美股 #加息#商业思维 #投行 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FTX的幕后推手细思极恐 加密货币交易所FTX创始人Sam Bankman-Fried .简称SBF， 亿万富翁，才30岁不到就被财富说成是下一个巴菲特。 各种媒体吹捧。 连CNBC的红人Jim Cramer在5个月前还说他是新的JP Morgan。 意思就是说他会像当年摩根一样成为加密货币系统最中心的银行家收购整合其他企业。 看起来又是把去中心化的加密货币变成以他为中心的行业对吧？总之这么年轻的SBF为什么这么大的能量呢。 谁是幕后给他撑腰的人。 首先是SBF的父母。 父亲Joseph BankMan。 斯坦福大学法学院教授。 母亲barbara Fried. 也是斯坦福法学院教授。 两位主攻的都是税法，也都是和政府关系密切，经常在国会中作证的这种。 最新消息是这帮人在岛国巴哈马买了总共3个亿美金的房产。 其中SBF的父母买的房产就有1.21亿美金， 什么时候斯坦福教授这么有钱了而且研究税法的教授在避税天堂买房也算是行家对吧？ 然后就是SBF的女朋友Caroline。 她就是FTX挪客户的钱去的公司Alemeda的CEO。看起来像是个小女孩。 可是他老爸Glenn ellison。 MIT经济学教授， 是这个人叫Gary的人以前的老板。 Gary是谁。 他可是现任美国证监会主席。 3月份的时候Gary牵线还安排SBF和拜登还举行一次被加密货币玩家称为不寻常的会议。 然后。在这次中期选举中FTX就成为了仅次于索罗斯的第二大民主党捐款人。还有报道说FTX还捐赠了美国商品期货委员会。 这可是负责监管加密货币的机构。 所以大家看到了这里面水有多深了吧？ 很可能这次暴雷还会是一个政治事件。 所以并没有结束。 让我们就拭目以待吧。&nbsp;\n \n","listText":"币圈暴雷后续（6）： FTX的幕后推手细思极恐 加密货币交易所FTX创始人Sam Bankman-Fried .简称SBF， 亿万富翁，才30岁不到就被财富说成是下一个巴菲特。 各种媒体吹捧。 连CNBC的红人Jim Cramer在5个月前还说他是新的JP Morgan。 意思就是说他会像当年摩根一样成为加密货币系统最中心的银行家收购整合其他企业。 看起来又是把去中心化的加密货币变成以他为中心的行业对吧？总之这么年轻的SBF为什么这么大的能量呢。 谁是幕后给他撑腰的人。 首先是SBF的父母。 父亲Joseph BankMan。 斯坦福大学法学院教授。 母亲barbara Fried. 也是斯坦福法学院教授。 两位主攻的都是税法，也都是和政府关系密切，经常在国会中作证的这种。 最新消息是这帮人在岛国巴哈马买了总共3个亿美金的房产。 其中SBF的父母买的房产就有1.21亿美金， 什么时候斯坦福教授这么有钱了而且研究税法的教授在避税天堂买房也算是行家对吧？ 然后就是SBF的女朋友Caroline。 她就是FTX挪客户的钱去的公司Alemeda的CEO。看起来像是个小女孩。 可是他老爸Glenn ellison。 MIT经济学教授， 是这个人叫Gary的人以前的老板。 Gary是谁。 他可是现任美国证监会主席。 3月份的时候Gary牵线还安排SBF和拜登还举行一次被加密货币玩家称为不寻常的会议。 然后。在这次中期选举中FTX就成为了仅次于索罗斯的第二大民主党捐款人。还有报道说FTX还捐赠了美国商品期货委员会。 这可是负责监管加密货币的机构。 所以大家看到了这里面水有多深了吧？ 很可能这次暴雷还会是一个政治事件。 所以并没有结束。 让我们就拭目以待吧。&nbsp;","text":"币圈暴雷后续（6）： FTX的幕后推手细思极恐 加密货币交易所FTX创始人Sam Bankman-Fried .简称SBF， 亿万富翁，才30岁不到就被财富说成是下一个巴菲特。 各种媒体吹捧。 连CNBC的红人Jim Cramer在5个月前还说他是新的JP Morgan。 意思就是说他会像当年摩根一样成为加密货币系统最中心的银行家收购整合其他企业。 看起来又是把去中心化的加密货币变成以他为中心的行业对吧？总之这么年轻的SBF为什么这么大的能量呢。 谁是幕后给他撑腰的人。 首先是SBF的父母。 父亲Joseph BankMan。 斯坦福大学法学院教授。 母亲barbara Fried. 也是斯坦福法学院教授。 两位主攻的都是税法，也都是和政府关系密切，经常在国会中作证的这种。 最新消息是这帮人在岛国巴哈马买了总共3个亿美金的房产。 其中SBF的父母买的房产就有1.21亿美金， 什么时候斯坦福教授这么有钱了而且研究税法的教授在避税天堂买房也算是行家对吧？ 然后就是SBF的女朋友Caroline。 她就是FTX挪客户的钱去的公司Alemeda的CEO。看起来像是个小女孩。 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