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metastone

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11-06 07:07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 买买买

10-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

10-29

$苹果(AAPL)$ 买买买

10-23

买买买黄金看好

10-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

10-20

冲冲冲

10-17

冲冲冲

10-16

冲冲冲，买买买

10-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

10-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

09-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

09-22

买买买，冲冲冲

09-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

09-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲冲冲

09-10

没啥亮点

09-09

冲冲冲

09-08

老马没问题👍

08-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 涨涨涨

08-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

03-31

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 涨涨涨

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class=\"title\">\n阿里致公众信：为商家创造更开放更公平的平台环境\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-10 11:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>4月10日，市场监管总局依法对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团作出行政处罚，处以182.28亿元罚款。阿里巴巴集团随后表示，接受、服从这一处罚决定，将依法经营，进一步强化合规体系建设，立足创新发展，更好履行社会责任。</p><p>当天，阿里巴巴发布《致客户和公众的一封信》，感谢商家、消费者、合作伙伴以及投资者的信任和包容，表达对未来长远健康发展的思考和行动。</p><p><b>&nbsp;《致客户和公众的一封信》全文如下——&nbsp;</b></p><p>尊敬的阿里巴巴的商家、消费者、合作伙伴以及投资者们：&nbsp;</p><p>今天，我们收到国家市场监督管理总局对阿里巴巴集团的行政处罚决定。对此处罚，我们诚恳接受，坚决服从。借此机会，阿里巴巴及全体阿里小二，对商家、消费者、合作伙伴以及投资者给予我们的信任和包容，表达我们的感恩，也坦诚地表达我们对未来长远健康发展的思考和行动。&nbsp;</p><p>过去几个月，我们全力配合调查，认真学习国家对平台经济的政策和要求；在保证业务平稳运行的同时，进行系统的自审自查与完善升级。我们认识到，今天的处罚，是对我们的警醒和鞭策，是对行业发展的规范和呵护，是国家维护公平竞争市场环境、推动平台经济高质量发展的重要举措。&nbsp;</p><p>平台经济是新一轮技术革命催生的全新生产关系。过去二十多年，得益于国家经济的发展，得益于互联网技术的进步，得益于管理部门对创新的支持和包容，阿里巴巴有机会和千万中小商家、亿万消费者一起，探索创造出淘宝、天猫等平台模式，降低了经营和创业成本，提高了社会效率，打通了经济末梢循环。今天，平台经济发展进入全新阶段，深入到人们的日常生活，关系到社会经济的方方面面。时代和社会对平台企业提出了全新的要求，我们深刻认识到平台企业在国家经济社会发展中的责任。同时我们会牢记，平台的价值是整合、分享资源，是通过帮助他人成功而取得成功，是不断为社会创造价值而实现自我价值。&nbsp;</p><p>我们深知，只有永不停步地顺应时代和国家发展，永不停步地倾听、了解、服务好成千上万的商家和消费者，永不停步地追寻技术创新，才是我们的生存之本。我们将进一步强化客户价值、聚焦客户体验，并继续出台一系列降平台经营门槛、减平台经营成本的措施，为所有商家和合作伙伴创造更开放、更公平、更高效、共享发展成果的平台环境。&nbsp;</p><p>今天是阿里巴巴集团发展历程中至关重要的一天，我们将以此为新的起点，直面问题，锐意革新。政府的监管与服务，社会各界的批评、包容和支持，是阿里巴巴一路成长的关键。对此，我们心怀感恩，也同时心存敬畏。客户第一，做一家为社会不断创造长期价值的好公司，既是我们的初心，也是我们存在和发展的最大意义。我们对此充满信心，绝不动摇。&nbsp;</p><p>阿里巴巴集团</p><p>2021年4月10日</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3cdaf7e71f3ffc057a6cba130f402c4\" tg-width=\"880\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADAG\">$天演药业(ADAG)$</a>哎，一路向下👇","text":"$天演药业(ADAG)$哎，一路向下👇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342703938","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316692892,"gmtCreate":1611930378716,"gmtModify":1703756521593,"author":{"id":"3566874117693492","authorId":"3566874117693492","name":"metastone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e983abdba0c1f0471948477930e51f6f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566874117693492","authorIdStr":"3566874117693492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马斯克这样下去离挨罚不远了，利用影响力干扰加密货币和股票市场，上次私有化被罚了3000w刀","listText":"马斯克这样下去离挨罚不远了，利用影响力干扰加密货币和股票市场，上次私有化被罚了3000w刀","text":"马斯克这样下去离挨罚不远了，利用影响力干扰加密货币和股票市场，上次私有化被罚了3000w刀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316692892","repostId":"2107021915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635006443,"gmtCreate":1646729175638,"gmtModify":1646729175638,"author":{"id":"3566874117693492","authorId":"3566874117693492","name":"metastone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e983abdba0c1f0471948477930e51f6f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566874117693492","authorIdStr":"3566874117693492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那个做空镍的青山公司亏惨了吧","listText":"那个做空镍的青山公司亏惨了吧","text":"那个做空镍的青山公司亏惨了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635006443","repostId":"1158262003","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158262003","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646727068,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158262003?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-08 16:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"市场综述 | 市场波动加剧！伦镍上演历史性暴涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158262003","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：伦敦金属交易所暂停镍交易，停盘前涨幅逾57%，报80000美元/吨；美股指期货、欧股强势反弹；恒生科指5连跌再创新低；沪指跌2.35%创年内新低；原油、黄金日内走高>>>伦镍上演历史性暴涨，一度","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b>伦敦金属交易所暂停镍交易，停盘前涨幅逾57%，报80000美元/吨；美股指期货、欧股强势反弹；恒生科指5连跌再创新低；沪指跌2.35%创年内新低；原油、黄金日内走高&gt;&gt;&gt;</blockquote><p><b>伦镍上演历史性暴涨，一度突破10万美元/吨</b></p><p>最近两日，外盘大宗商品延续“暴走”模式。本身低库存、紧供应的镍价在市场情绪助推下暴涨，而地缘政治因素引发市场对俄镍供应担忧，叠加冶炼成本高昂，为镍价上涨提供重要支撑。</p><p>伦镍昨日单日内最大拉涨89%，最高达55000美元/吨。今日，伦镍继续暴涨，LME镍价日内涨幅扩大至103%，连破6万、7万、8万、9万、10万美元关口，刷新纪录新高。</p><p>截止发稿，伦敦金属交易所（LME）暂停镍交易。停盘前，日内涨幅逾57%，报80000美元/吨。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26cec64b6787550904b64de158c0419\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>港股</b></p><p>第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，全球金融市场继续大跌。港股恒指跌1.39%，2日跌超千点，恒生科技指数跌3.21%再度刷新历史低价，录得5连跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4e8db25b7fd2c0c3f95c8f50ba2ffd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，汽车股、烟草板块领衔下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪股份</a>均大跌，前期强势的铜、钢铁、铝等有色板块全线回调，内房股、物管股、港口航运股、航空股、煤炭股、石油股、教育股齐挫。另一方面，香港零售股逆势上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01929\">周大福</a>收涨2.36%，水务股、燃气股、电力股翻红。</p><p><b>A股</b></p><p>大盘今日继续下挫，三大指数均创年内新低。截止收盘，沪指跌2.35%，深成指跌2.62%，创业板指跌1.8%。北向资金全天净卖出86.99亿元，其中沪股通净卖出31.51亿元，深股通净卖出55.48亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814bd7e06676af44b19f7fe0dc0e1087\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，仅东数西算、贵金属、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>概念三个板块上涨，其余板块全部下跌。三胎和医药相关板块今日跌幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301126\">达嘉维康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300584\">海辰药业</a>20CM跌停，锂电池等赛道股跌幅居前，多只锂矿股跌停。总体上今日个股跌多涨少，两市超4100只个股下跌，近百股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额11099亿，较上个交易日放量953亿。板块方面，仅东数西算、贵金属、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>概念三板块上涨，新冠治疗、辅助生殖、中药、种植业与林业、盐湖提锂等板块跌幅居前。</p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>美股股指期货转涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.24%，标普500指数期货涨0.46%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9890e34336b4919ecb351baa6a26d1\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>欧股</b></p><p>欧洲主要指数全线反弹，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.49%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨0.49%，法国CAC40指数涨2.51%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨2.54%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac423a96947daf3059df602cb0c0c8d4\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货日内走高，截止发稿，WTI原油报121.23美元/桶，涨1.53%；布油现报125.31美元/桶，涨1.7%。</p><p>油价周一跃升至2008年以来的最高水平，因美国和欧洲盟国考虑禁止从俄罗斯进口石油，同时伊朗原油迅速重返全球市场的可能性似乎有所降低。关注日内将公布的EIA能源报告。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81291699cdbd39d42a1af2809d91a284\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96af9640465187ad9182fb4cfa7d0cef\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货持续上扬，现涨1.43%，报2024.4美元/盎司。</p><p>目前还是要看俄乌局势的发展，若俄乌两国继续积极寻求和谈，今早止息争端，则会让避险情绪降温。而如果冲突局势没有平息的希望，则黄金在避险驱动下恐有创新高的冲动。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645ed5cc7f97a4ef01fbb186717439e8\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场综述 | 市场波动加剧！伦镍上演历史性暴涨</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述 | 市场波动加剧！伦镍上演历史性暴涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-08 16:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b>伦敦金属交易所暂停镍交易，停盘前涨幅逾57%，报80000美元/吨；美股指期货、欧股强势反弹；恒生科指5连跌再创新低；沪指跌2.35%创年内新低；原油、黄金日内走高&gt;&gt;&gt;</blockquote><p><b>伦镍上演历史性暴涨，一度突破10万美元/吨</b></p><p>最近两日，外盘大宗商品延续“暴走”模式。本身低库存、紧供应的镍价在市场情绪助推下暴涨，而地缘政治因素引发市场对俄镍供应担忧，叠加冶炼成本高昂，为镍价上涨提供重要支撑。</p><p>伦镍昨日单日内最大拉涨89%，最高达55000美元/吨。今日，伦镍继续暴涨，LME镍价日内涨幅扩大至103%，连破6万、7万、8万、9万、10万美元关口，刷新纪录新高。</p><p>截止发稿，伦敦金属交易所（LME）暂停镍交易。停盘前，日内涨幅逾57%，报80000美元/吨。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26cec64b6787550904b64de158c0419\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>港股</b></p><p>第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，全球金融市场继续大跌。港股恒指跌1.39%，2日跌超千点，恒生科技指数跌3.21%再度刷新历史低价，录得5连跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4e8db25b7fd2c0c3f95c8f50ba2ffd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，汽车股、烟草板块领衔下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪股份</a>均大跌，前期强势的铜、钢铁、铝等有色板块全线回调，内房股、物管股、港口航运股、航空股、煤炭股、石油股、教育股齐挫。另一方面，香港零售股逆势上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01929\">周大福</a>收涨2.36%，水务股、燃气股、电力股翻红。</p><p><b>A股</b></p><p>大盘今日继续下挫，三大指数均创年内新低。截止收盘，沪指跌2.35%，深成指跌2.62%，创业板指跌1.8%。北向资金全天净卖出86.99亿元，其中沪股通净卖出31.51亿元，深股通净卖出55.48亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814bd7e06676af44b19f7fe0dc0e1087\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，仅东数西算、贵金属、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>概念三个板块上涨，其余板块全部下跌。三胎和医药相关板块今日跌幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301126\">达嘉维康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300584\">海辰药业</a>20CM跌停，锂电池等赛道股跌幅居前，多只锂矿股跌停。总体上今日个股跌多涨少，两市超4100只个股下跌，近百股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额11099亿，较上个交易日放量953亿。板块方面，仅东数西算、贵金属、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>概念三板块上涨，新冠治疗、辅助生殖、中药、种植业与林业、盐湖提锂等板块跌幅居前。</p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>美股股指期货转涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.24%，标普500指数期货涨0.46%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9890e34336b4919ecb351baa6a26d1\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>欧股</b></p><p>欧洲主要指数全线反弹，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.49%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨0.49%，法国CAC40指数涨2.51%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨2.54%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac423a96947daf3059df602cb0c0c8d4\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货日内走高，截止发稿，WTI原油报121.23美元/桶，涨1.53%；布油现报125.31美元/桶，涨1.7%。</p><p>油价周一跃升至2008年以来的最高水平，因美国和欧洲盟国考虑禁止从俄罗斯进口石油，同时伊朗原油迅速重返全球市场的可能性似乎有所降低。关注日内将公布的EIA能源报告。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81291699cdbd39d42a1af2809d91a284\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96af9640465187ad9182fb4cfa7d0cef\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货持续上扬，现涨1.43%，报2024.4美元/盎司。</p><p>目前还是要看俄乌局势的发展，若俄乌两国继续积极寻求和谈，今早止息争端，则会让避险情绪降温。而如果冲突局势没有平息的希望，则黄金在避险驱动下恐有创新高的冲动。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645ed5cc7f97a4ef01fbb186717439e8\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 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京东健康跌了5个点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395966160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3564371380754431","authorId":"3564371380754431","name":"弹风手______","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b1c7f46967913c3277f736438a9008","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564371380754431","authorIdStr":"3564371380754431"},"content":"入仓大户抽水在进！","text":"入仓大户抽水在进！","html":"入仓大户抽水在进！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696421452,"gmtCreate":1640750880053,"gmtModify":1640750880053,"author":{"id":"3566874117693492","authorId":"3566874117693492","name":"metastone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e983abdba0c1f0471948477930e51f6f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566874117693492","authorIdStr":"3566874117693492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可能过两年投资届就听不到木头姐这个名字了","listText":"可能过两年投资届就听不到木头姐这个名字了","text":"可能过两年投资届就听不到木头姐这个名字了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696421452","repostId":"1108381220","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108381220","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640749027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108381220?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 11:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"木头姐发布年终总结：创新类股票没有泡沫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108381220","media":"少小离家老大回","summary":"摘要：“以五年的投资期限看，未来Ark关注的五大领域，DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益。”\n\nArkInvest的木头姐（Catherine Wood","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：“以五年的投资期限看，未来Ark关注的五大领域，DNA测序、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>ArkInvest的木头姐（Catherine Wood）发布了年底的总结以及对未来的展望。做为坚持创新领域投资的机构，木头姐坚持创新型股票从长期看，现在已经处于深度价值的投资机会。</p>\n<p>在疫情引起的“居家隔离”政策后，许多消费和工作行为已经完全转变，企业也更愿意在科技领域加大投入。今年的通胀市场的影响，破坏了对创新企业的估值；在波动性层面，算法交易做了很大贡献；但是从其他如股权市场看，对通胀的预期并不明显。</p>\n<p>另外，与之前大家担心重新出现的互联网泡沫阶段不一样，（1）现在的科技企业已经有切实的市场需求，并非概念；（2）投资人已经对可能出现风险非常重视。因此，以五年的投资期限看，未来Ark关注的五大领域，DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益。</p>\n<p><b>正文：</b></p>\n<p>在我的整个职业生涯中，在颠覆性创新策略失宠的时候，我主要关注的是我们的客户。也许是受到媒体负面头条和我们策略固有波动性的影响，一些客户在市场周期接近底部时抛售，将原本暂时的损失变成了永久性损失。</p>\n<p>因此，ARK将重点放在我们的五年投资时间范围上，通过博客、时事通讯、媒体采访、网络研讨会和其他视频（如我们每月的“知情”系列）与客户不断沟通。我们给客户传达的主要信息是：创新解决了社会问题，并有望在未来五到十年内加速改变人类生活。我们还重申，我们利用调整期间的波动，将我们的投资组合集中于我们最有信心的股票。与我们的客户接触的结果是客户在我们这里继续保留资产比许多观察者预期的要好。今年依赖，我们的资金流入量大大超过了我们的资金流出。因此，总体而言，我们的投资者了解我们的积极管理投资流程和长期投资时间范围。</p>\n<p>从历史上看，根据我们的研究，随着市场反弹，我们的投资组合在调整期间的这种集中持仓的方法给投资人带来了显著的绝对和相对收益表现。根据我们目前的估计，ARK历史上只有一次，即2018年底，我们的研究会对未来五年投资组合的增长潜力如此乐观。</p>\n<p>经过近11个月的修正，创新型股票似乎已经进入了深度价值区域，其估值只是峰值水平的一小部分。许多怀疑者将我们去年的巨额回报归因于“居家隔离”相关概念的股票，并预计今年它们的基本面将会恶化。例如，自2020年10月19日达到峰值以来，Zoom的股价已下跌约68%，跌至2020年6月1日以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p>然而，自2020年7月结束的财政季度以来，Zoom的收入和EBITDA分别增长了58%和53%。上个季度，与去年同期相比，Zoom的收入增长了35%，EBITDA增长了52%，而在冠状病毒危机最严重的时期，Zoom的收入增长了367%。在我们看来，冠状病毒危机在1.5万亿美元的企业通信领域引发了一个“rip and replace”（破坏原有规则，建立新的机制）周期。这是大约30年前互联网出现以来的第一个主要产品替换周期。我们不认为这种转变是“暂时的”。在“居家隔离”的刺激下，这种转变已经成为企业在居家和现场办公的混合工作世界中“保持联系”和“保持竞争力”的重要手段。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀是否破坏了破坏性创新的估值？</p>\n<p>自2021年2月中旬以来，许多覆盖面广范的市场指数已升至创纪录高位。</p>\n<p>在此过程中，市场从成长股转向“价值”和防御性股票，包括FAANGs。这种轮换的主要原因是担心通胀不是与供应链瓶颈相关的短期问题，而是对新冠病毒及其变种的过度货币和财政政策反应的结果。这种担心再与强劲的经济周期相联系，通胀往往有利于“价值股”，特别是能源、金融服务、工业和材料领域。与此同时，通过提高贴现率和降低未来现金流的现值，更高的利率往往会损害积极增长型股票等长期资产。通常，这类长期资产的公司牺牲短期盈利能力，积极投资，以利用大量增长机会。</p>\n<p>2021年11月，美联储主席JeromePowell提出，通胀可能不是“暂时的”，毕竟市场轮动风格转向价值股。在今年的衰退中，创新型企业的税收流失，也给了投资者更多的规避这些公司的理由。</p>\n<p>量化策略和算法是否加剧了通胀担忧？</p>\n<p>正如去年冠状病毒肆虐期间的情况一样，量化和基于算法的策略似乎在今年早些时候和最近轮换的前三个月主导着股市活动。据估计，算法交易占美国所有交易的约70%，在市场波动加剧期间，这一比例甚至更高。去年，当股市在3月和4月对新冠疫情带来的现实做出大跌反应时，量化和算法驱动的策略似乎简单地抓住了两个变量——公司资产负债表上的现金水平和现金耗费率——并且在短短几周内，它们就将许多股票压垮了50-75%。</p>\n<p>动量（Momentum）追随者和市场评论员接受了这种“显而易见”的交易，但他们错了。这些股票中有许多是在基因组领域的企业，它们的基础技术对对付冠状病毒至关重要：基因组测序、合成生物学、mRNA技术、机器学习和分子诊断测试等。与传统观点相反，购买这些股票是正确的举措。</p>\n<p>在今年的某些时候，随着通胀和利率的爆发，量化和算法似乎再次主宰了市场的交易。这一次，他们似乎看到了一个变量：基于在冠状病毒期间受益的股票短期收益的高估值。他们青睐能源和金融服务等低盈利倍数行业。而我们认为这两个行业将分别受到自主电力输送和数字钱包/分散化金融（decentralized finance ，DeFi）的严重破坏。市场评论员——投资者、策略师、高频交易者和其他人——再一次追随这些量化影响者，对科技泡沫期间所犯的错误发出警告。</p>\n<p>在我们看来，这些巴甫洛夫式的反应将被证明与冠状病毒危机早期的反应一样错误。他们是向后看的，没有认识到今天积极投资的公司牺牲短期盈利能力的一个重要原因：利用世界从未见过的创新时代。这一新时代得益于当今五大创新平台的发展：DNA测序、机器人技术、能量存储、人工智能和区块链技术。与“现在”因短期股东要求利润和股息而陷入瘫痪的公司不同，真正的创新型公司正在向前进发。</p>\n<p>投资瘫痪（Investment paralysis），或者说基准敏感性（benchmarksensitivity），似乎植根于那些经历互联网泡沫破裂期间以及2008-09年全球金融危机期间形成的固有记忆。然而，如果我们的研究是正确的，那些目光短浅地关注短期盈利能力的公司没有投入足够的资金来利用与五大创新领域相关的爆炸性增长机会。</p>\n<p>而这五大创新平台是互联网泡沫结束的20年中播种的。相反，许多企业可能遭受行业中的“创造性破坏”变革。由于区块链技术和人工智能在所谓的“元宇宙”中的融合发展中可能摧毁集中式数据聚合的模式，将经济权力拱手让给创造者和消费者，因此即使是FAANG这些科技巨头也可能受到伤害。</p>\n<p>其他市场并没有证实对通胀的担忧</p>\n<p>也许奇怪的是，随着破坏性创新相关估值的大幅下滑，今年我们被有关股票市场“泡沫”的言论所鼓舞。为什么？…因为其他市场并没有证实通胀将持续下去的担忧。例如，覆盖面很广的公开市场指数接近历史高点，其估值处于互联网泡沫以来的最高水平。上世纪80年代初，随着通胀肆虐美国经济，标普500指数的12个月市盈率（PE）跌至6.8倍的低点，约为目前水平的四分之一。哪个市场错了：与颠覆性创新相关的股票，还是更广的股市指数？类似地，由于连续几轮上涨，股权私募市场估值接近历史高点。</p>\n<p>最新的例子，今年成立的Nubank，以250亿美元的估值开始融资，12月以超过400亿美元的价格上市，比上轮估值高出60%。与此同时，管理良好、具有优秀竞争力的电子商务和金融科技股Mercadolibre的股价已减半。另外，债券市场似乎在警告美联储不要收紧货币政策。自2月以来，以10年期国债和2年期国债收益率之差衡量的收益率曲线已从159个基点降至80个基点，表明未来一年经济衰退、通胀降低或两者兼而有之的可能性在上升。</p>\n<p>在我们看来，高倍数股票背后的担忧意味着创新领域的股票前景良好。前期强劲的牛市确实让投资人产生担忧。但是那些将现在与互联网泡沫时期进行比较的人似乎忘记了这一事实，1999年，市场上不存在担忧，也没有考验股市。这一次，市场担忧已经非常明显。</p>\n<p>市场的风险可能是通货紧缩吗？</p>\n<p>我的职业生涯始于70年代末的大学时代，当时通货膨胀正在飙升。当时，大多数经济学家认为通货膨胀是暂时的，除了厄运与死亡博士——所罗门兄弟的Henry Kaufman和第一波士顿的Al Wojnilower——以及Milton Friedman。在经历了这种分歧之后，我意识到我可能在通胀问题上错了。我越来越相信，市场更大的惊喜将是股价的通缩——包括周期性股票和长期标的。而在今年大幅下跌后后，更高倍数的股票可能在明年大幅反弹。</p>\n<p>长期“良好”通货紧缩对市场非常有力量。根据我们以怀特定律为中心的研究，五个创新领域将引入通货紧缩力量，这些力量将随着时间的推移而形成，并影响全球各个部门、行业和公司。根据赖特定律，我们的研究表明，使用长读技术(long read technologies)测序的整个人类基因组数量每增加一倍，相关成本将下降28%，而与短读相关的成本将下降40%。与此同时，工业机器人和电池产量每增加一倍，成本将分别下降50%和28%。此外，人工智能培训成本正以每年60%的速度下降。</p>\n<p>更有趣的是，这些平台正在趋同，随着S曲线相互补充和加强，成本可能会大幅下降。例如，机器人技术、储能和人工智能之间的融合将创造自主出租车和巨大的增长潜力：到2030年，组东家是出租车网络将从今天的零收入扩展到全球9-10万亿美元规模，这意味着，如果再加上从车轮后面解放出来的时间带来的生产力提升，总价值可能超过20万亿美元。从长远来看，美国目前的GDP约为21万亿美元。换言之，“良好”的通货紧缩可能会导致那些处于变革右侧的公司出现超高的增长。</p>\n<p>通货紧缩的周期性问题引起了更多的争论。供应链瓶颈已经持续了比我们预期的更长的时间，这已经引起了争论，尤其是现在密歇根大学的消费者信心指数已经下降到低于新冠危机最严重的深度。</p>\n<p>随着2020年春季刺激支出将储蓄率膨胀至33%，消费品支出，（约占美国总消费的三分之一）飙升，压倒了将要倒闭的企业。在新冠病毒爆发之前，企业已经处于“避险”模式这不仅是因为中美之间的贸易紧张，也是因为2019年夏末收益率曲线的反转。随着企业在2020年初关闭，一些消费者转而使用政府刺激付款来“囤积”商品，提高居民家的“库存”水平。在一些供应链问题加剧的情况下，消费者在今年年初开始购物，并担心货架会空空如也，这导致在2021年11月将CPI通胀率推高到6.8%。与此同时，美国消费者储蓄率降至8%以下，这是冠状病毒危机前的水平，为未来消费和囤积留下了更少的空间。</p>\n<p>因此，在未来三到六个月内，随着供应链瓶颈的消除，消费增长可能会大幅放缓，这可能会给企业带来过剩的库存。</p>\n<p>如果我们是正确的，在未来三到六个月内，市场可能会更多地关注美国经济衰退的风险、中国和新兴市场经济体的严重减速，以及潜在的令人惊讶的通胀下降。一些大宗商品价格已经开始暴跌：铁矿石价格下跌了36%，这可能是对中国房地产动荡的回应。而波罗的海干散货运价指数下跌了39%，DRAM价格下跌了27%，美国木材价格下跌了35%。就连石油价格，直到最近还只是一个显著的异常值，也下跌了15%。通常，在经济放缓期间，新技术的采用会加快，因为相关企业和消费者更愿意改变行为。他们现在求助的许多技术领先者似乎都处于深度价值领域。</p>\n<p>创新类股票没有泡沫：我们相信它们处于深度价值领域</p>\n<p>在90年代末，股票投资者忽视了价值股，转而青睐成长股，特别是科技、电信和生物技术领域的股票。互联网及其网络效应似乎不可思议，足以让投资者追逐梦想：上行波动是一件美好的事情。不幸的是，太多的资本追逐了太少的机会——这些技术的成本高得令人望而却步，而且还没有为黄金时间做好准备。</p>\n<p>例如，当时第一个全人类基因组测序的成本是27多亿美元。思科（Cisco）、甲骨文（Oracle）、惠普（Hewlett-Packard）、英特尔（Intel）和世通（WorldCom）等科技和电信公司并不是后来创建云、SaaS或人工智能芯片的公司。然而，他们的股票估值过高。同样，投资者在追逐梦想，通常吸引眼球是唯一的估值指标。价值管理者认为，以公司在10年内可能为全球服务的潜在眼球数量来评估公司的价值不会有好结果，他们是对的。清算日的时间比预期的要晚，但在2000年3月10日，泡沫破裂，价值股起飞。</p>\n<p>受到2000-03年互联网泡沫破裂以及2008-09年金融危机的蹂躏，投资者，特别是机构投资者，如今更加厌恶风险。波动性已成为一个非常贬义的词汇，因为自2000年以来波动性指数（VIX）的每一次飙升都与熊市有关。投资者似乎在涌向自己的基准，展望过去，期待未来的成功，而不是在新兴的创新空间中寻找令人兴奋的投资机会。基准将投资者引向已经取得巨大成功的公司。</p>\n<p>由于破坏性创新，代表更多股票股票指数可能会下跌</p>\n<p>由于全球经济正在经历历史上最大规模的技术变革，大多数指数都可能处于危险之中。与许多与创新相关的股票不同，股票基准以创纪录的价格和接近创纪录的估值卖出，标准普尔500指数为26倍，纳斯达克指数为127倍。然而，涉及14项技术的五大创新领域可能会改变基准所代表的现有世界秩序。因此，我们认为，随着DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术的规模化和融合，未来五到十年内曾经久经考验（tried and true）的投资策略表现将令人失望。</p>\n<p>以五年的投资期限，我们对五大领域的预测表明，我们的策略可以在未来五年提供30-40%的复合年回报率。换句话说，如果我们的研究是正确的——我相信我们对创新的研究是金融界最好的——那么我们的策略在未来五年的价值将增加三到五倍。</p>\n<p>然而，随着今年接近尾声，投资者似乎更感兴趣的是“谨慎行事”，希望自己配置更接近基准。但我们认为这样的策略在未来十年内不太可能产生平均回报的。就像ARK早年对电动汽车（TSLA）和比特币的研究和投资一样，颠覆性创新似乎处于深度价值领域。根据我们过去八年的研究，未来十年的机会将从今天的10-12万亿美元（约占全球公共股本市值的10%）扩大到200多万亿美元。</p>\n<p>我们不会让基准和跟踪错误使我们的策略受制于现有的市场秩序。新冠危机永久性地改变了世界的运作方式，使消费者和企业更快、更深地进入数字时代。将创新策略简单的定义为“居家隔离”掩盖了一个关键点：创新以一种消费者和企业轻松、热情和愉悦的方式解决问题。投资成功的关键在于转向变革的正确方向，避免陷入被“创造性破坏”冲击的行业和公司，而去拥抱那些处于“破坏性创新”前沿的行业和公司。沿的行业和公司。</p>","source":"lsy1620524137371","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>木头姐发布年终总结：创新类股票没有泡沫</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n木头姐发布年终总结：创新类股票没有泡沫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-29 11:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648419><strong>少小离家老大回</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：“以五年的投资期限看，未来Ark关注的五大领域，DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益。”\n\nArkInvest的木头姐（Catherine Wood）发布了年底的总结以及对未来的展望。做为坚持创新领域投资的机构，木头姐坚持创新型股票从长期看，现在已经处于深度价值的投资机会。\n在疫情引起的“居家隔离”政策后，许多消费和工作行为已经完全转变，企业也更...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648419\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20afe856ac7f36d6c9c85ce88d0f0b4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648419","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108381220","content_text":"摘要：“以五年的投资期限看，未来Ark关注的五大领域，DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益。”\n\nArkInvest的木头姐（Catherine Wood）发布了年底的总结以及对未来的展望。做为坚持创新领域投资的机构，木头姐坚持创新型股票从长期看，现在已经处于深度价值的投资机会。\n在疫情引起的“居家隔离”政策后，许多消费和工作行为已经完全转变，企业也更愿意在科技领域加大投入。今年的通胀市场的影响，破坏了对创新企业的估值；在波动性层面，算法交易做了很大贡献；但是从其他如股权市场看，对通胀的预期并不明显。\n另外，与之前大家担心重新出现的互联网泡沫阶段不一样，（1）现在的科技企业已经有切实的市场需求，并非概念；（2）投资人已经对可能出现风险非常重视。因此，以五年的投资期限看，未来Ark关注的五大领域，DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益。\n正文：\n在我的整个职业生涯中，在颠覆性创新策略失宠的时候，我主要关注的是我们的客户。也许是受到媒体负面头条和我们策略固有波动性的影响，一些客户在市场周期接近底部时抛售，将原本暂时的损失变成了永久性损失。\n因此，ARK将重点放在我们的五年投资时间范围上，通过博客、时事通讯、媒体采访、网络研讨会和其他视频（如我们每月的“知情”系列）与客户不断沟通。我们给客户传达的主要信息是：创新解决了社会问题，并有望在未来五到十年内加速改变人类生活。我们还重申，我们利用调整期间的波动，将我们的投资组合集中于我们最有信心的股票。与我们的客户接触的结果是客户在我们这里继续保留资产比许多观察者预期的要好。今年依赖，我们的资金流入量大大超过了我们的资金流出。因此，总体而言，我们的投资者了解我们的积极管理投资流程和长期投资时间范围。\n从历史上看，根据我们的研究，随着市场反弹，我们的投资组合在调整期间的这种集中持仓的方法给投资人带来了显著的绝对和相对收益表现。根据我们目前的估计，ARK历史上只有一次，即2018年底，我们的研究会对未来五年投资组合的增长潜力如此乐观。\n经过近11个月的修正，创新型股票似乎已经进入了深度价值区域，其估值只是峰值水平的一小部分。许多怀疑者将我们去年的巨额回报归因于“居家隔离”相关概念的股票，并预计今年它们的基本面将会恶化。例如，自2020年10月19日达到峰值以来，Zoom的股价已下跌约68%，跌至2020年6月1日以来的最低水平。\n然而，自2020年7月结束的财政季度以来，Zoom的收入和EBITDA分别增长了58%和53%。上个季度，与去年同期相比，Zoom的收入增长了35%，EBITDA增长了52%，而在冠状病毒危机最严重的时期，Zoom的收入增长了367%。在我们看来，冠状病毒危机在1.5万亿美元的企业通信领域引发了一个“rip and replace”（破坏原有规则，建立新的机制）周期。这是大约30年前互联网出现以来的第一个主要产品替换周期。我们不认为这种转变是“暂时的”。在“居家隔离”的刺激下，这种转变已经成为企业在居家和现场办公的混合工作世界中“保持联系”和“保持竞争力”的重要手段。\n通货膨胀是否破坏了破坏性创新的估值？\n自2021年2月中旬以来，许多覆盖面广范的市场指数已升至创纪录高位。\n在此过程中，市场从成长股转向“价值”和防御性股票，包括FAANGs。这种轮换的主要原因是担心通胀不是与供应链瓶颈相关的短期问题，而是对新冠病毒及其变种的过度货币和财政政策反应的结果。这种担心再与强劲的经济周期相联系，通胀往往有利于“价值股”，特别是能源、金融服务、工业和材料领域。与此同时，通过提高贴现率和降低未来现金流的现值，更高的利率往往会损害积极增长型股票等长期资产。通常，这类长期资产的公司牺牲短期盈利能力，积极投资，以利用大量增长机会。\n2021年11月，美联储主席JeromePowell提出，通胀可能不是“暂时的”，毕竟市场轮动风格转向价值股。在今年的衰退中，创新型企业的税收流失，也给了投资者更多的规避这些公司的理由。\n量化策略和算法是否加剧了通胀担忧？\n正如去年冠状病毒肆虐期间的情况一样，量化和基于算法的策略似乎在今年早些时候和最近轮换的前三个月主导着股市活动。据估计，算法交易占美国所有交易的约70%，在市场波动加剧期间，这一比例甚至更高。去年，当股市在3月和4月对新冠疫情带来的现实做出大跌反应时，量化和算法驱动的策略似乎简单地抓住了两个变量——公司资产负债表上的现金水平和现金耗费率——并且在短短几周内，它们就将许多股票压垮了50-75%。\n动量（Momentum）追随者和市场评论员接受了这种“显而易见”的交易，但他们错了。这些股票中有许多是在基因组领域的企业，它们的基础技术对对付冠状病毒至关重要：基因组测序、合成生物学、mRNA技术、机器学习和分子诊断测试等。与传统观点相反，购买这些股票是正确的举措。\n在今年的某些时候，随着通胀和利率的爆发，量化和算法似乎再次主宰了市场的交易。这一次，他们似乎看到了一个变量：基于在冠状病毒期间受益的股票短期收益的高估值。他们青睐能源和金融服务等低盈利倍数行业。而我们认为这两个行业将分别受到自主电力输送和数字钱包/分散化金融（decentralized finance ，DeFi）的严重破坏。市场评论员——投资者、策略师、高频交易者和其他人——再一次追随这些量化影响者，对科技泡沫期间所犯的错误发出警告。\n在我们看来，这些巴甫洛夫式的反应将被证明与冠状病毒危机早期的反应一样错误。他们是向后看的，没有认识到今天积极投资的公司牺牲短期盈利能力的一个重要原因：利用世界从未见过的创新时代。这一新时代得益于当今五大创新平台的发展：DNA测序、机器人技术、能量存储、人工智能和区块链技术。与“现在”因短期股东要求利润和股息而陷入瘫痪的公司不同，真正的创新型公司正在向前进发。\n投资瘫痪（Investment paralysis），或者说基准敏感性（benchmarksensitivity），似乎植根于那些经历互联网泡沫破裂期间以及2008-09年全球金融危机期间形成的固有记忆。然而，如果我们的研究是正确的，那些目光短浅地关注短期盈利能力的公司没有投入足够的资金来利用与五大创新领域相关的爆炸性增长机会。\n而这五大创新平台是互联网泡沫结束的20年中播种的。相反，许多企业可能遭受行业中的“创造性破坏”变革。由于区块链技术和人工智能在所谓的“元宇宙”中的融合发展中可能摧毁集中式数据聚合的模式，将经济权力拱手让给创造者和消费者，因此即使是FAANG这些科技巨头也可能受到伤害。\n其他市场并没有证实对通胀的担忧\n也许奇怪的是，随着破坏性创新相关估值的大幅下滑，今年我们被有关股票市场“泡沫”的言论所鼓舞。为什么？…因为其他市场并没有证实通胀将持续下去的担忧。例如，覆盖面很广的公开市场指数接近历史高点，其估值处于互联网泡沫以来的最高水平。上世纪80年代初，随着通胀肆虐美国经济，标普500指数的12个月市盈率（PE）跌至6.8倍的低点，约为目前水平的四分之一。哪个市场错了：与颠覆性创新相关的股票，还是更广的股市指数？类似地，由于连续几轮上涨，股权私募市场估值接近历史高点。\n最新的例子，今年成立的Nubank，以250亿美元的估值开始融资，12月以超过400亿美元的价格上市，比上轮估值高出60%。与此同时，管理良好、具有优秀竞争力的电子商务和金融科技股Mercadolibre的股价已减半。另外，债券市场似乎在警告美联储不要收紧货币政策。自2月以来，以10年期国债和2年期国债收益率之差衡量的收益率曲线已从159个基点降至80个基点，表明未来一年经济衰退、通胀降低或两者兼而有之的可能性在上升。\n在我们看来，高倍数股票背后的担忧意味着创新领域的股票前景良好。前期强劲的牛市确实让投资人产生担忧。但是那些将现在与互联网泡沫时期进行比较的人似乎忘记了这一事实，1999年，市场上不存在担忧，也没有考验股市。这一次，市场担忧已经非常明显。\n市场的风险可能是通货紧缩吗？\n我的职业生涯始于70年代末的大学时代，当时通货膨胀正在飙升。当时，大多数经济学家认为通货膨胀是暂时的，除了厄运与死亡博士——所罗门兄弟的Henry Kaufman和第一波士顿的Al Wojnilower——以及Milton Friedman。在经历了这种分歧之后，我意识到我可能在通胀问题上错了。我越来越相信，市场更大的惊喜将是股价的通缩——包括周期性股票和长期标的。而在今年大幅下跌后后，更高倍数的股票可能在明年大幅反弹。\n长期“良好”通货紧缩对市场非常有力量。根据我们以怀特定律为中心的研究，五个创新领域将引入通货紧缩力量，这些力量将随着时间的推移而形成，并影响全球各个部门、行业和公司。根据赖特定律，我们的研究表明，使用长读技术(long read technologies)测序的整个人类基因组数量每增加一倍，相关成本将下降28%，而与短读相关的成本将下降40%。与此同时，工业机器人和电池产量每增加一倍，成本将分别下降50%和28%。此外，人工智能培训成本正以每年60%的速度下降。\n更有趣的是，这些平台正在趋同，随着S曲线相互补充和加强，成本可能会大幅下降。例如，机器人技术、储能和人工智能之间的融合将创造自主出租车和巨大的增长潜力：到2030年，组东家是出租车网络将从今天的零收入扩展到全球9-10万亿美元规模，这意味着，如果再加上从车轮后面解放出来的时间带来的生产力提升，总价值可能超过20万亿美元。从长远来看，美国目前的GDP约为21万亿美元。换言之，“良好”的通货紧缩可能会导致那些处于变革右侧的公司出现超高的增长。\n通货紧缩的周期性问题引起了更多的争论。供应链瓶颈已经持续了比我们预期的更长的时间，这已经引起了争论，尤其是现在密歇根大学的消费者信心指数已经下降到低于新冠危机最严重的深度。\n随着2020年春季刺激支出将储蓄率膨胀至33%，消费品支出，（约占美国总消费的三分之一）飙升，压倒了将要倒闭的企业。在新冠病毒爆发之前，企业已经处于“避险”模式这不仅是因为中美之间的贸易紧张，也是因为2019年夏末收益率曲线的反转。随着企业在2020年初关闭，一些消费者转而使用政府刺激付款来“囤积”商品，提高居民家的“库存”水平。在一些供应链问题加剧的情况下，消费者在今年年初开始购物，并担心货架会空空如也，这导致在2021年11月将CPI通胀率推高到6.8%。与此同时，美国消费者储蓄率降至8%以下，这是冠状病毒危机前的水平，为未来消费和囤积留下了更少的空间。\n因此，在未来三到六个月内，随着供应链瓶颈的消除，消费增长可能会大幅放缓，这可能会给企业带来过剩的库存。\n如果我们是正确的，在未来三到六个月内，市场可能会更多地关注美国经济衰退的风险、中国和新兴市场经济体的严重减速，以及潜在的令人惊讶的通胀下降。一些大宗商品价格已经开始暴跌：铁矿石价格下跌了36%，这可能是对中国房地产动荡的回应。而波罗的海干散货运价指数下跌了39%，DRAM价格下跌了27%，美国木材价格下跌了35%。就连石油价格，直到最近还只是一个显著的异常值，也下跌了15%。通常，在经济放缓期间，新技术的采用会加快，因为相关企业和消费者更愿意改变行为。他们现在求助的许多技术领先者似乎都处于深度价值领域。\n创新类股票没有泡沫：我们相信它们处于深度价值领域\n在90年代末，股票投资者忽视了价值股，转而青睐成长股，特别是科技、电信和生物技术领域的股票。互联网及其网络效应似乎不可思议，足以让投资者追逐梦想：上行波动是一件美好的事情。不幸的是，太多的资本追逐了太少的机会——这些技术的成本高得令人望而却步，而且还没有为黄金时间做好准备。\n例如，当时第一个全人类基因组测序的成本是27多亿美元。思科（Cisco）、甲骨文（Oracle）、惠普（Hewlett-Packard）、英特尔（Intel）和世通（WorldCom）等科技和电信公司并不是后来创建云、SaaS或人工智能芯片的公司。然而，他们的股票估值过高。同样，投资者在追逐梦想，通常吸引眼球是唯一的估值指标。价值管理者认为，以公司在10年内可能为全球服务的潜在眼球数量来评估公司的价值不会有好结果，他们是对的。清算日的时间比预期的要晚，但在2000年3月10日，泡沫破裂，价值股起飞。\n受到2000-03年互联网泡沫破裂以及2008-09年金融危机的蹂躏，投资者，特别是机构投资者，如今更加厌恶风险。波动性已成为一个非常贬义的词汇，因为自2000年以来波动性指数（VIX）的每一次飙升都与熊市有关。投资者似乎在涌向自己的基准，展望过去，期待未来的成功，而不是在新兴的创新空间中寻找令人兴奋的投资机会。基准将投资者引向已经取得巨大成功的公司。\n由于破坏性创新，代表更多股票股票指数可能会下跌\n由于全球经济正在经历历史上最大规模的技术变革，大多数指数都可能处于危险之中。与许多与创新相关的股票不同，股票基准以创纪录的价格和接近创纪录的估值卖出，标准普尔500指数为26倍，纳斯达克指数为127倍。然而，涉及14项技术的五大创新领域可能会改变基准所代表的现有世界秩序。因此，我们认为，随着DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术的规模化和融合，未来五到十年内曾经久经考验（tried and true）的投资策略表现将令人失望。\n以五年的投资期限，我们对五大领域的预测表明，我们的策略可以在未来五年提供30-40%的复合年回报率。换句话说，如果我们的研究是正确的——我相信我们对创新的研究是金融界最好的——那么我们的策略在未来五年的价值将增加三到五倍。\n然而，随着今年接近尾声，投资者似乎更感兴趣的是“谨慎行事”，希望自己配置更接近基准。但我们认为这样的策略在未来十年内不太可能产生平均回报的。就像ARK早年对电动汽车（TSLA）和比特币的研究和投资一样，颠覆性创新似乎处于深度价值领域。根据我们过去八年的研究，未来十年的机会将从今天的10-12万亿美元（约占全球公共股本市值的10%）扩大到200多万亿美元。\n我们不会让基准和跟踪错误使我们的策略受制于现有的市场秩序。新冠危机永久性地改变了世界的运作方式，使消费者和企业更快、更深地进入数字时代。将创新策略简单的定义为“居家隔离”掩盖了一个关键点：创新以一种消费者和企业轻松、热情和愉悦的方式解决问题。投资成功的关键在于转向变革的正确方向，避免陷入被“创造性破坏”冲击的行业和公司，而去拥抱那些处于“破坏性创新”前沿的行业和公司。沿的行业和公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866083526,"gmtCreate":1632712009165,"gmtModify":1632712009165,"author":{"id":"3566874117693492","authorId":"3566874117693492","name":"metastone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e983abdba0c1f0471948477930e51f6f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566874117693492","authorIdStr":"3566874117693492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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