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2021-07-17

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2021-11-13

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Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote>

2021-09-26

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2021-11-26

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Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote>

2021-11-09

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Prices are skyrocketing. Goldman Sachs says prices will go even higher<blockquote>物价飞涨。高盛表示价格将会更高</blockquote>

2021-08-09

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2021-11-15

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2021-09-15

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U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>美国股市因对复苏和企业增税的担忧而收低</blockquote>

2021-08-11

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Toplines After Hours US Market on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场盘后顶线</blockquote>

2021-08-01

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11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604836527,"gmtCreate":1639367224462,"gmtModify":1639367353023,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604836527","repostId":"1171271872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171271872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639348466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171271872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DRI":"达登饭店",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HEI":"海科航空","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司",".DJI":"道琼斯","FDX":"联邦快递","JILL":"J.Jill Inc.","ADBE":"Adobe","PHX":"潘汉德尔油气","ACN":"埃森哲","SCS":"Steelcase Inc.","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","CPB":"金宝汤"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCS":0.9,"LEN":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"AVYA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DRI":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"JILL":0.9,"PHX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ACN":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"HEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604055045,"gmtCreate":1639287987288,"gmtModify":1639287987527,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604055045","repostId":"1103250344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103250344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639280672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103250344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-12 11:44","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：三周IPO中的物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103250344","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to r","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三起IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发人员<b>轮回</b>(IOT)计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。Samsara增长迅速，但利润极低，在2022财年第9个月，ARR超过10万美元的客户实现了两位数增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>鲜藤酒</b>(VINE)计划以1.16亿美元的市值筹集2100万美元。这家名人创立的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售其葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微型卫星开发商<b>Sidus空间</b>(SIDU)计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家公司提供设计、制造、发射和数据收集等商业卫星服务。迄今为止，Sidus Space已产生与太空相关的制造收入，但2021年9月毛利率为负，严重无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：三周IPO中的物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：三周IPO中的物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-12 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三起IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发人员<b>轮回</b>(IOT)计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。Samsara增长迅速，但利润极低，在2022财年第9个月，ARR超过10万美元的客户实现了两位数增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>鲜藤酒</b>(VINE)计划以1.16亿美元的市值筹集2100万美元。这家名人创立的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售其葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微型卫星开发商<b>Sidus空间</b>(SIDU)计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家公司提供设计、制造、发射和数据收集等商业卫星服务。迄今为止，Sidus Space已产生与太空相关的制造收入，但2021年9月毛利率为负，严重无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IOT":"Samsara, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SIDU":"Sidus Space Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103250344","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.\nIoT solutions developerSamsara(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.\nWine brandFresh Vine Wine(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.\nMicro-cap satellite developerSidus Space(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection.  Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0,".SPX":0,"SIDU":0,"IOT":0,"VINE":0,".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605525539,"gmtCreate":1639194942923,"gmtModify":1639194943162,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605525539","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605334908,"gmtCreate":1639111464956,"gmtModify":1639111632511,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605334908","repostId":"2190964556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602204232,"gmtCreate":1639023024556,"gmtModify":1639023024796,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602204232","repostId":"2189667447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602013287,"gmtCreate":1638938758967,"gmtModify":1638938815566,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602013287","repostId":"2189719656","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608848824,"gmtCreate":1638691727026,"gmtModify":1638691727147,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608848824","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608918338,"gmtCreate":1638593842278,"gmtModify":1638593842401,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608918338","repostId":"1174181873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174181873","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638578178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174181873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-04 08:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181873","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billi","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-04 08:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HCP":"HashiCorp, Inc.","REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.","NU":"Nu Holdings Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181873","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.\nBuffett-backed Nu Holdings(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.\nCloud infrastructure platform HashiCorp(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&M spend.\nCannabis finance REIT Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.\nCanadian gold exploration company Austin Gold(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NU":0.9,"HCP":0.9,"REFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601898086,"gmtCreate":1638504747915,"gmtModify":1638504748067,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601898086","repostId":"1186250081","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186250081","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638504080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186250081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 12:01","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Didi plans to file an IPO prospectus in Hong Kong around March next year<blockquote>滴滴计划明年3月左右在香港递交IPO招股书</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186250081","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Didi plans to file an IPO prospectus in Hong Kong around March next year, according to people famili","content":"<p>Didi plans to file an IPO prospectus in Hong Kong around March next year,&nbsp;according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露，滴滴计划明年3月左右在香港提交IPO招股说明书。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi plans to file an IPO prospectus in Hong Kong around March next year<blockquote>滴滴计划明年3月左右在香港递交IPO招股书</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi plans to file an IPO prospectus in Hong Kong around March next year<blockquote>滴滴计划明年3月左右在香港递交IPO招股书</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 12:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Didi plans to file an IPO prospectus in Hong Kong around March next year,&nbsp;according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露，滴滴计划明年3月左右在香港提交IPO招股说明书。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186250081","content_text":"Didi plans to file an IPO prospectus in Hong Kong around March next year, according to people familiar with the matter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603506539,"gmtCreate":1638421034417,"gmtModify":1638421034817,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603506539","repostId":"1171217212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171217212","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638416856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171217212?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-02 11:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171217212","media":"IFR","summary":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share, according to IFR.","content":"<p>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share,&nbsp;according&nbsp;to&nbsp;IFR.</p><p><blockquote>根据IFR的数据，微博计划在香港上市的定价为每股272.80港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWeibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IFR</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-02 11:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share,&nbsp;according&nbsp;to&nbsp;IFR.</p><p><blockquote>根据IFR的数据，微博计划在香港上市的定价为每股272.80港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.ifre.com/story/3164593/weibo-plans-to-price-hk-listing-at-hk27280-per-share-rnhybgnjwr\">IFR</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09898":"微博-SW","WB":"微博"},"source_url":"https://www.ifre.com/story/3164593/weibo-plans-to-price-hk-listing-at-hk27280-per-share-rnhybgnjwr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171217212","content_text":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share, according to IFR.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09898":0.9,"WB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609467806,"gmtCreate":1638318607055,"gmtModify":1638318785741,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609467806","repostId":"2188758534","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609195514,"gmtCreate":1638248643545,"gmtModify":1638248643660,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609195514","repostId":"1164197088","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600281681,"gmtCreate":1638157596728,"gmtModify":1638157596890,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600281681","repostId":"1124072014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124072014","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638140765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124072014?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124072014","media":"yahoo","summary":"As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor","content":"<p>As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者从感恩节缩短的交易周回归，焦点将转向美国劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于周五发布的月度就业报告将提供美国经济中招聘和劳动力参与实力的最新快照。经济学家一致认为，11月份将有50万个工作岗位回归，招聘速度仅较10月份的531,000个略有放缓。失业率也有望从10月的4.6%进一步改善至4.5%，达到2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)写道：“我们预计11月份非农就业人数将增加50万人，但冬季新冠疫情风险不断增加以及可用工人供应减少将很快拖累就业增长。”，在上周的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> \"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply could<i>worsen</i>over the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非劳动力出现更显著的复苏，否则就业增长不可能以这种速度持续太久。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是劳动力供应可以<i>恶化</i>随着覆盖1亿工人的联邦疫苗授权于1月4日开始，未来几个月，”阿什沃斯补充道。“这表明工资增长将保持强劲，我们预计10月份平均时薪将[环比]增长0.4%。”</blockquote></p><p> On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.</p><p><blockquote>与去年同期相比，平均时薪预计将增长5.0%，继10月份已经显着增长4.9%之后进一步加速，这是自2月份以来最快的工资增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Growing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.</p><p><blockquote>平均工资增长和劳动力市场紧张虽然对消费者及其消费能力有利，但也引发了人们对持续通胀的担忧。上周经济分析局公布的10月份个人消费支出(PCE)平减指数显示，该指数年率上涨5.0%，创1990年以来最大涨幅。核心PCE（即美联储首选的剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的通胀指标）同比上涨4.1%，为三十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Other recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最近的其他数据集中在紧张的劳动力市场上，并预示着11月份就业报告可能强劲。上周首次申请失业救济人数降至19.9万人的52年低点，打破了之前大流行时期的低点和大流行前新首次申请失业救济人数的平均值。这再次凸显了美国雇主之间对劳动力的激烈竞争，在劳动力普遍短缺的情况下，公司试图雇用和留住现有劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> Even given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>即使考虑到这些挥之不去的短缺，劳动力参与率仍未恢复到大流行前的水平。与2020年2月相比，平民劳动力仍减少了近300万参与者，对病毒的担忧挥之不去，许多工作年龄的人渴望寻找具有更好灵活性和福利的新角色，这仍然使许多人处于劳动力的边缘。经济学家普遍预计，11月份劳动力参与率仅略有上升，达到61.7%，高于10月份的61.6%，但远低于2020年2月的63.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Returning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.</p><p><blockquote>将经济恢复到大流行前的劳动力参与水平，并确保不同群体公平地看到就业增长，已成为美联储的一个重点关注点。在这些方面仍有待弥补的距离也是美联储货币政策支持保持超宽松的最大因素，即使在一系列高于预期的通胀报告似乎需要采取更强硬的政策倾斜美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔再次被提名继续担任央行行长进一步表明，美联储将继续关注劳动力市场，将其作为货币政策的关键信息因素。</blockquote></p><p> \"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行经济学家贾斯汀·魏德纳(Justin Weidner)上周在一份报告中写道：“由于有证据表明通胀压力上升可能会持续更长时间，市场对美联储未来加息的看法已大幅提前。”“然而，正如鲍威尔主席11月新闻发布会所表明的那样，劳动力市场恢复最大就业的前景仍然是美联储最终何时开始积极收紧货币政策的关键考虑因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Economic calendar</p><p><blockquote>经济日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b>Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>10月份待售房屋环比（预期0.7%，9月份-2.3%）；11月达拉斯联储制造业活动指数（预期17.0，10月14.6）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>9月FHFA房价指数环比（预期为1.2%，8月为1.0%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城综合指数，9月环比（预期1.30%，8月1.17%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，9月（上月为19.66%）；11月MNI芝加哥PMI（预期67.0，10月68.4）；世界大型企业联合会11月消费者信心指数（预期110.0，10月113.8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>MBA抵押贷款申请，11月26日（前一周为1.8%）；11月ADP就业变化（预期51.5万人，10月57.1万人）；Markit美国制造业PMI，11月终值（上月为59.1）；10月份建筑支出环比（预期0.5%，9月份-0.5%）；ISM制造业，11月（预期61.0，10月60.8）；美联储发布褐皮书</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>挑战者裁员，11月（10月为-71.7%）；截至11月27日当周首次申请失业救济人数（前一周为199,000人）；11月20日持续申请失业救济人数（前一周为2.049）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b>Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>11月非农就业人数变化（预期50万，10月53.1万）；11月失业率（预期4.5%，10月4.6%）；11月平均时薪环比（预期0.4%，10月0.4%）；11月平均时薪同比（预期5.0%，10月4.9%）；Markit美国服务业PMI，11月最终数据（上一期为57.0）；Markit美国综合PMI，11月最终数据（上一期为56.5）；ISM服务业指数，11月（预期65.0，10月66.7）；10月工厂订单（预期0.5%，9月0.2%）；耐用品订单，10月份最终（上次打印为-0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Earnings calendar</p><p><blockquote>盈利日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>Salesforce.com(CRM)收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>PVH Corp.(PVH)收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>Dollar General(DG)、Kroger(KR)开盘前；Ulta Beauty(ULTA)收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovember jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者从感恩节缩短的交易周回归，焦点将转向美国劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于周五发布的月度就业报告将提供美国经济中招聘和劳动力参与实力的最新快照。经济学家一致认为，11月份将有50万个工作岗位回归，招聘速度仅较10月份的531,000个略有放缓。失业率也有望从10月的4.6%进一步改善至4.5%，达到2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)写道：“我们预计11月份非农就业人数将增加50万人，但冬季新冠疫情风险不断增加以及可用工人供应减少将很快拖累就业增长。”，在上周的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> \"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply could<i>worsen</i>over the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非劳动力出现更显著的复苏，否则就业增长不可能以这种速度持续太久。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是劳动力供应可以<i>恶化</i>随着覆盖1亿工人的联邦疫苗授权于1月4日开始，未来几个月，”阿什沃斯补充道。“这表明工资增长将保持强劲，我们预计10月份平均时薪将[环比]增长0.4%。”</blockquote></p><p> On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.</p><p><blockquote>与去年同期相比，平均时薪预计将增长5.0%，继10月份已经显着增长4.9%之后进一步加速，这是自2月份以来最快的工资增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Growing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.</p><p><blockquote>平均工资增长和劳动力市场紧张虽然对消费者及其消费能力有利，但也引发了人们对持续通胀的担忧。上周经济分析局公布的10月份个人消费支出(PCE)平减指数显示，该指数年率上涨5.0%，创1990年以来最大涨幅。核心PCE（即美联储首选的剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的通胀指标）同比上涨4.1%，为三十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Other recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最近的其他数据集中在紧张的劳动力市场上，并预示着11月份就业报告可能强劲。上周首次申请失业救济人数降至19.9万人的52年低点，打破了之前大流行时期的低点和大流行前新首次申请失业救济人数的平均值。这再次凸显了美国雇主之间对劳动力的激烈竞争，在劳动力普遍短缺的情况下，公司试图雇用和留住现有劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> Even given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>即使考虑到这些挥之不去的短缺，劳动力参与率仍未恢复到大流行前的水平。与2020年2月相比，平民劳动力仍减少了近300万参与者，对病毒的担忧挥之不去，许多工作年龄的人渴望寻找具有更好灵活性和福利的新角色，这仍然使许多人处于劳动力的边缘。经济学家普遍预计，11月份劳动力参与率仅略有上升，达到61.7%，高于10月份的61.6%，但远低于2020年2月的63.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Returning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.</p><p><blockquote>将经济恢复到大流行前的劳动力参与水平，并确保不同群体公平地看到就业增长，已成为美联储的一个重点关注点。在这些方面仍有待弥补的距离也是美联储货币政策支持保持超宽松的最大因素，即使在一系列高于预期的通胀报告似乎需要采取更强硬的政策倾斜美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔再次被提名继续担任央行行长进一步表明，美联储将继续关注劳动力市场，将其作为货币政策的关键信息因素。</blockquote></p><p> \"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行经济学家贾斯汀·魏德纳(Justin Weidner)上周在一份报告中写道：“由于有证据表明通胀压力上升可能会持续更长时间，市场对美联储未来加息的看法已大幅提前。”“然而，正如鲍威尔主席11月新闻发布会所表明的那样，劳动力市场恢复最大就业的前景仍然是美联储最终何时开始积极收紧货币政策的关键考虑因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Economic calendar</p><p><blockquote>经济日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b>Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>10月份待售房屋环比（预期0.7%，9月份-2.3%）；11月达拉斯联储制造业活动指数（预期17.0，10月14.6）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>9月FHFA房价指数环比（预期为1.2%，8月为1.0%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城综合指数，9月环比（预期1.30%，8月1.17%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，9月（上月为19.66%）；11月MNI芝加哥PMI（预期67.0，10月68.4）；世界大型企业联合会11月消费者信心指数（预期110.0，10月113.8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>MBA抵押贷款申请，11月26日（前一周为1.8%）；11月ADP就业变化（预期51.5万人，10月57.1万人）；Markit美国制造业PMI，11月终值（上月为59.1）；10月份建筑支出环比（预期0.5%，9月份-0.5%）；ISM制造业，11月（预期61.0，10月60.8）；美联储发布褐皮书</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>挑战者裁员，11月（10月为-71.7%）；截至11月27日当周首次申请失业救济人数（前一周为199,000人）；11月20日持续申请失业救济人数（前一周为2.049）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b>Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>11月非农就业人数变化（预期50万，10月53.1万）；11月失业率（预期4.5%，10月4.6%）；11月平均时薪环比（预期0.4%，10月0.4%）；11月平均时薪同比（预期5.0%，10月4.9%）；Markit美国服务业PMI，11月最终数据（上一期为57.0）；Markit美国综合PMI，11月最终数据（上一期为56.5）；ISM服务业指数，11月（预期65.0，10月66.7）；10月工厂订单（预期0.5%，9月0.2%）；耐用品订单，10月份最终（上次打印为-0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Earnings calendar</p><p><blockquote>盈利日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>Salesforce.com(CRM)收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>PVH Corp.(PVH)收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>Dollar General(DG)、Kroger(KR)开盘前；Ulta Beauty(ULTA)收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-144428419.html\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-144428419.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124072014","content_text":"As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.\nThe Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.\n\"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.\n\"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply couldworsenover the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"\nOn a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.\nGrowing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.\nOther recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.\nEven given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.\nReturning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.\n\"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday:Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)\nTuesday:FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)\nWednesday:MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book\nThursday:Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)\nFriday:Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday:No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday:Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close\nWednesday:PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close\nThursday:Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close\nFriday:No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600372881,"gmtCreate":1638076949798,"gmtModify":1638076949916,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600372881","repostId":"2186432895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877764970,"gmtCreate":1637986290614,"gmtModify":1637986290732,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877764970","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877180785,"gmtCreate":1637897557685,"gmtModify":1637897557834,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877180785","repostId":"1174337163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174337163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637897193,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174337163?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174337163","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industria","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li>  <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li>  <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高通处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的长期增长趋势中受益。</li><li>其最近的经营业绩相当不错，未来几个季度的势头应该会保持强劲，尽管预计中期增长将放缓。</li><li>在股市强劲反弹之后，上涨空间现在更加有限，投资者应该在潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>QUALCOMM</b>(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote><b>QUALCOMM</b>在5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的支持下，(QCOM)在未来几年拥有有趣的增长前景，但其股价在过去几个月中表现相当强劲，高通现在被“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;<b>MediaTek</b>(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;<b>Apple’s</b>(AAPL) modem business.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我推荐高通作为5G和物联网（IoT）长期增长主题中的一个有趣的公司，尽管存在一些中期风险，例如来自<b>联发科</b>(OTCPK：MDTKF)在移动领域以及失去的可能性<b>苹果的</b>(AAPL)调制解调器业务。</blockquote></p><p> Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>自从我发表这篇文章以来，在强劲的盈利和过去一周乐观的投资者日的支撑下，高通的股价在大约两个月内上涨了39%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了强劲的上涨之后，我认为是时候看看如果高通的股价现在很贵，它是否仍然为投资者提供价值了。在本文中，我回顾了其最近的收益和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期收益预期，检查了其估值是否仍然有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高通报告了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司报告第四季度收入比预期高出5%，而净利润超出预期近13%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在整个财年，该公司能够超额完成2019年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，高通营收达335.6亿美元（同比增长43%），营业收入接近103亿美元（同比增长80%）。其净利润同比增长74%，超过90亿美元，净利润率达到26.9%（2020财年为22.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>高通的增长引擎是QCT部门（技术），收入同比增长64%，而许可部门（QTL）收入同比增长26%。在QTL领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其QTL收入的62%。然而，鉴于手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变，预计这一权重将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些结果非常好，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入合计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展良好，执行力一直积极，这增加了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，当前的芯片短缺也影响了高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，使其最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>关于股东薪酬政策，在上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并分配了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东资本回报总额达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为1.5%左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家“成长型”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.</p><p><blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也很乐观，该公司预计营收将超过100亿美元，摊薄后每股收益在2.53-2.73美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，这一前景意味着年收入接近400亿美元，比上一财年增长19%。</blockquote></p><p> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.</p><p><blockquote>这符合当前华尔街的预期，因为目前的共识是2022财年的收入为395亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently that<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近有更多传言称<b>苹果</b>（AAPL）将在2023年使用自己的5G调制解调器芯片，而不是使用高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会很大，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以抵消失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>正如我之前在高通上讨论的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了其产品组合，以满足未来几年对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司处于有利地位，可以从5G和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其增长战略一直是使其产品供应多样化，以便能够为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，增加高通的总目标市场和比依赖更高的长期增长前景过于依赖移动行业。</blockquote></p><p> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有多项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其潜在市场总额预计将在未来十年大幅扩大，从目前的约1000亿美元增加到2030年的约7000亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，产生大量数据，成为公司未来增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.</p><p><blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其跨越手机以外的多个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对该公司来说仍然相对较小，但具有巨大的增长前景，将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。未来几年的业务。例如，高通的目标是到2024财年物联网年收入约为90亿美元，而去年为50亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内年收入将从去年的10亿美元增长到约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.</p><p><blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的比重将逐渐增加至85%左右，比去年的总出货量翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，以2021财年末净债务与EBITDA比率低于0.5倍来衡量，因此它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将分配近100%的自由现金流未来几年流向股东。</blockquote></p><p> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果该公司进行收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加该公司的财务杠杆，而且最有可能的是，其战略将在随后几年转向降低杠杆，直到再次达到像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Estimates &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估计和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.</p><p><blockquote>关于中期预测，未来四年高通的收入预计将以每年约7.3%的速度增长，与2021财年相比大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果运营势头保持强劲，未来几个月还有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.</p><p><blockquote>2025财年的收入预计约为440亿美元，考虑到2022财年的收入预计约为400亿美元，这似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到2025财年的收入将达到500亿美元左右，预计2023财年至2025财年的年收入增长约为7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote></p><p> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的估计，2025财年其净利润预计将增至140亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到2025财年每股收益约为12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.</p><p><blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用2025财年的预测来了解高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.</p><p><blockquote>根据高通到2025财年的每股收益预期为12美元，以及过去几年混合预期收益（未来12个月）17.3倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通到2024年9月的目标价为每股207美元。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，基于这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为15%，这并不令人印象深刻，并表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价中。</blockquote></p><p> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去两年高通的预期市盈率有些波动，预期市盈率在13-22倍之间。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期内有更大的上涨潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>高通近几个季度的经营势头明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略正在取得良好进展，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其股票已迅速将基本面的改善与公司最近的盈利和投资者日结合起来，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。投资高通的投资者应该“持有”并在未来潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li>  <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li>  <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高通处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的长期增长趋势中受益。</li><li>其最近的经营业绩相当不错，未来几个季度的势头应该会保持强劲，尽管预计中期增长将放缓。</li><li>在股市强劲反弹之后，上涨空间现在更加有限，投资者应该在潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>QUALCOMM</b>(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote><b>QUALCOMM</b>在5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的支持下，(QCOM)在未来几年拥有有趣的增长前景，但其股价在过去几个月中表现相当强劲，高通现在被“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;<b>MediaTek</b>(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;<b>Apple’s</b>(AAPL) modem business.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我推荐高通作为5G和物联网（IoT）长期增长主题中的一个有趣的公司，尽管存在一些中期风险，例如来自<b>联发科</b>(OTCPK：MDTKF)在移动领域以及失去的可能性<b>苹果的</b>(AAPL)调制解调器业务。</blockquote></p><p> Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>自从我发表这篇文章以来，在强劲的盈利和过去一周乐观的投资者日的支撑下，高通的股价在大约两个月内上涨了39%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了强劲的上涨之后，我认为是时候看看如果高通的股价现在很贵，它是否仍然为投资者提供价值了。在本文中，我回顾了其最近的收益和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期收益预期，检查了其估值是否仍然有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高通报告了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司报告第四季度收入比预期高出5%，而净利润超出预期近13%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在整个财年，该公司能够超额完成2019年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，高通营收达335.6亿美元（同比增长43%），营业收入接近103亿美元（同比增长80%）。其净利润同比增长74%，超过90亿美元，净利润率达到26.9%（2020财年为22.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>高通的增长引擎是QCT部门（技术），收入同比增长64%，而许可部门（QTL）收入同比增长26%。在QTL领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其QTL收入的62%。然而，鉴于手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变，预计这一权重将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些结果非常好，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入合计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展良好，执行力一直积极，这增加了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，当前的芯片短缺也影响了高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，使其最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>关于股东薪酬政策，在上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并分配了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东资本回报总额达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为1.5%左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家“成长型”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.</p><p><blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也很乐观，该公司预计营收将超过100亿美元，摊薄后每股收益在2.53-2.73美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，这一前景意味着年收入接近400亿美元，比上一财年增长19%。</blockquote></p><p> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.</p><p><blockquote>这符合当前华尔街的预期，因为目前的共识是2022财年的收入为395亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently that<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近有更多传言称<b>苹果</b>（AAPL）将在2023年使用自己的5G调制解调器芯片，而不是使用高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会很大，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以抵消失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>正如我之前在高通上讨论的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了其产品组合，以满足未来几年对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司处于有利地位，可以从5G和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其增长战略一直是使其产品供应多样化，以便能够为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，增加高通的总目标市场和比依赖更高的长期增长前景过于依赖移动行业。</blockquote></p><p> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有多项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其潜在市场总额预计将在未来十年大幅扩大，从目前的约1000亿美元增加到2030年的约7000亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，产生大量数据，成为公司未来增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.</p><p><blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其跨越手机以外的多个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对该公司来说仍然相对较小，但具有巨大的增长前景，将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。未来几年的业务。例如，高通的目标是到2024财年物联网年收入约为90亿美元，而去年为50亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内年收入将从去年的10亿美元增长到约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.</p><p><blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的比重将逐渐增加至85%左右，比去年的总出货量翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，以2021财年末净债务与EBITDA比率低于0.5倍来衡量，因此它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将分配近100%的自由现金流未来几年流向股东。</blockquote></p><p> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果该公司进行收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加该公司的财务杠杆，而且最有可能的是，其战略将在随后几年转向降低杠杆，直到再次达到像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Estimates &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估计和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.</p><p><blockquote>关于中期预测，未来四年高通的收入预计将以每年约7.3%的速度增长，与2021财年相比大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果运营势头保持强劲，未来几个月还有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.</p><p><blockquote>2025财年的收入预计约为440亿美元，考虑到2022财年的收入预计约为400亿美元，这似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到2025财年的收入将达到500亿美元左右，预计2023财年至2025财年的年收入增长约为7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote></p><p> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的估计，2025财年其净利润预计将增至140亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到2025财年每股收益约为12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.</p><p><blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用2025财年的预测来了解高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.</p><p><blockquote>根据高通到2025财年的每股收益预期为12美元，以及过去几年混合预期收益（未来12个月）17.3倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通到2024年9月的目标价为每股207美元。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，基于这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为15%，这并不令人印象深刻，并表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价中。</blockquote></p><p> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去两年高通的预期市盈率有些波动，预期市盈率在13-22倍之间。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期内有更大的上涨潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>高通近几个季度的经营势头明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略正在取得良好进展，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其股票已迅速将基本面的改善与公司最近的盈利和投资者日结合起来，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。投资高通的投资者应该“持有”并在未来潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174337163","content_text":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.\nIts recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.\nAfter a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.\n\nG0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nQUALCOMM(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.\nBackground\nAbout two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing Apple’s(AAPL) modem business.\nSince my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\nAfter a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.\nRecent Earnings\nQualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.\nFor the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.\nIn FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nDespite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.\nI see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.\nThis clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.\nRegarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.\nQualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.\nThis is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.\nOn the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently thatApple(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.\nNevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.\nInvestor Day\nAs I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.\nIts growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.\nThe company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nIn the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nRegarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.\nHowever, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.\nEstimates & Valuation\nRegarding medium-term estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.\nFor the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.\nIts bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.\nRegarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.\nBased on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.\nThis means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.\nNote that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.\nSource: Bloomberg.\nBottom Line\nQualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.\nHowever, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874482370,"gmtCreate":1637811557307,"gmtModify":1637811557414,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874482370","repostId":"1153777049","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153777049","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637811037,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153777049?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PTN Stock Alert: Why One Analyst Sees 1,371% Upside for Palatin Technologies<blockquote>PTN股票提醒：为什么一位分析师认为Palatin Technologies上涨1,371%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153777049","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Palatin Technologies(NYSEAMERICAN:PTN) stock is taking off on Wednesday thanks to a new analyst pric","content":"<p><div> Palatin Technologies(NYSEAMERICAN:PTN) stock is taking off on Wednesday thanks to a new analyst price target. H.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantginis is behind today’s news as he reiterated the firm’...</p><p><blockquote><div>由于分析师新的目标价，Palatin Technologies(NYSEAMERICAN：PTN)股价周三上涨。H.C.温赖特分析师约瑟夫·潘吉尼斯是今天新闻的幕后黑手，他重申了该公司的...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/ptn-stock-alert-why-one-analyst-sees-1371-upside-for-palatin-technologies/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/ptn-stock-alert-why-one-analyst-sees-1371-upside-for-palatin-technologies/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PTN Stock Alert: Why One Analyst Sees 1,371% Upside for Palatin Technologies<blockquote>PTN股票提醒：为什么一位分析师认为Palatin Technologies上涨1,371%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPTN Stock Alert: Why One Analyst Sees 1,371% Upside for Palatin Technologies<blockquote>PTN股票提醒：为什么一位分析师认为Palatin Technologies上涨1,371%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Palatin Technologies(NYSEAMERICAN:PTN) stock is taking off on Wednesday thanks to a new analyst price target. H.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantginis is behind today’s news as he reiterated the firm’...</p><p><blockquote><div>由于分析师新的目标价，Palatin Technologies(NYSEAMERICAN：PTN)股价周三上涨。H.C.温赖特分析师约瑟夫·潘吉尼斯是今天新闻的幕后黑手，他重申了该公司的...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/ptn-stock-alert-why-one-analyst-sees-1371-upside-for-palatin-technologies/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/ptn-stock-alert-why-one-analyst-sees-1371-upside-for-palatin-technologies/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/ptn-stock-alert-why-one-analyst-sees-1371-upside-for-palatin-technologies/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PTN":"Palatin Technologies Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/ptn-stock-alert-why-one-analyst-sees-1371-upside-for-palatin-technologies/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153777049","content_text":"Palatin Technologies(NYSEAMERICAN:PTN) stock is taking off on Wednesday thanks to a new analyst price target.\nH.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantginis is behind today’s news as he reiterated the firm’s buy rating for PTN stock. To go along with that, Pantginis also increased the price target for PTN stock from$2 per share to $5 per share.\nThat new price target for PTN stock represents massive growth potential for the company. The $5 price prediction is a roughly 1,371% upside for the stock compared to its closing price on Tuesday.\nIt’s also worth pointing out that the buy rating is right on the money withthe other two analysts covering PTN stock holding the same stance. However, the $5 price target is well above the consensus of $3.33 per share.\nSo why is the H.C. Wainwright analyst taking such a bullish stance on PTN stock? The company is preparing to start its Phase 3 clinical trial for its dry eye disease and visibility and that could mean major gains for the stock, reportsTheFly.com.\nThe new price target for PTN stock has it seeing heavier-than-normal trading today. That has some 30 million shares of the stock changing hands as of this writing. To put that in perspective, the company’s daily average trading volume is only about 966,000 shares.\nPTN stock is up 33.7% as of Wednesday morning but is down 30.3% since the start of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874393805,"gmtCreate":1637727236087,"gmtModify":1637727236233,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874393805","repostId":"2185384641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875683046,"gmtCreate":1637642612923,"gmtModify":1637642613092,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875683046","repostId":"2185808120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2185808120","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1637625517,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2185808120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's what Powell's nomination for 2nd term as Fed chairman means for markets<blockquote>这就是鲍威尔被提名连任美联储主席对市场的意义</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185808120","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say\nMarketWatch photo i","content":"<p>Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say</p><p><blockquote>分析师称，竞争对手布雷纳德获得第二名，投资者受到“连续性”的鼓舞</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d3ac1d26d057b0dd795501f245715c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock-market investors appeared to be cheering President Joe Biden's decision Monday to nominate Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman.</p><p><blockquote>股市投资者似乎对乔·拜登总统周一提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席第二个四年任期的决定感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p> The move had been widely anticipated by many, including betting markets.</p><p><blockquote>此举受到了包括博彩市场在内的许多人的广泛预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some questions about Powell being renamed to the helm of the central had been lingering as markets have been anxious about a surge in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, and some have argued that the central bank needs to employ more aggressive tactics or risk a 1970s-style surge in the price of goods and services amid supply-chain bottlenecks and a surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场对大流行后通胀飙升感到焦虑，有关鲍威尔被重新任命为央行行长的一些问题一直挥之不去，一些人认为央行需要采取更激进的策略，否则就会面临20世纪70年代的风险。供应链瓶颈和需求激增导致商品和服务价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Biden's choice was seen as coming down to Powell or Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who was viewed by analysts as potentially more dovish on inflation. Biden nominated Brainard to a term as vice chairwoman, succeeding Richard Clarida, whose term as the central bank's No. 2 official expires on Jan. 31.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的选择被视为取决于鲍威尔或美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德，分析师认为后者在通胀问题上可能更加鸽派。拜登提名布雷纳德担任副主席，接替理查德·克拉里达，后者作为央行二号官员的任期将于1月31日到期。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both were great candidates but sticking with Powell provided valuable continuity as the Fed seeks to implement its new framework and continue to put employment alongside price stability as a core mandate,\" said Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School. \"Particularly with recent price increases and growing concerns about inflation, there are benefits from standing by a trusted and widely respected leader.\"</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院教授凯瑟琳·贾奇表示：“两人都是很好的候选人，但在美联储寻求实施其新框架并继续将就业和价格稳定作为核心任务时，坚持鲍威尔提供了宝贵的连续性。”“特别是在最近物价上涨和对通胀日益担忧的情况下，支持一位值得信赖且广受尊重的领导人是有好处的。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index were all trading at or near records.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均处于或接近历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"The reappointment of Chairman Powell is a very positive development for markets and the economy because it provides continuity at a critical time,\" wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>独立顾问联盟首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)在电子邮件评论中写道：“鲍威尔主席的连任对市场和经济来说是一个非常积极的发展，因为它在关键时刻提供了连续性。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell's nomination also comes as the Fed has begun to taper its monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on a timetable to wind down the program by June. Many also are anticipating that the Fed also might look to raise rates two or three times in 2022 as it attempts to rein in the surge in inflation and normalize interest rates in the aftermath of the worst pandemic in over a century.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔获得提名之际，美联储已开始缩减每月购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的规模，并计划在6月前结束该计划。许多人还预计，美联储也可能在2022年加息两到三次，试图在一个多世纪以来最严重的疫情之后遏制通胀飙升并使利率正常化。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is experiencing an increase in inflation and the Fed has already taken steps to reduce their extraordinary stimulus measures (tapering), but they will need to move more quickly in addressing the inflation threats so that they don't become entrenched,\" Zaccarelli writes.</p><p><blockquote>“经济正在经历通胀上升，美联储已经采取措施减少非常规刺激措施（缩减），但他们需要更快地应对通胀威胁，以免它们变得根深蒂固，”扎卡雷利写道。</blockquote></p><p> The nominations end months of uncertainty and speculation about the leadership of the Fed at what is viewed as a crucial time in the recovery phase of the economy. Markets have been climbing to all-time highs even as yields for long-dated Treasurys were receding, suggesting that doubts remain about the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在被视为经济复苏阶段的关键时刻，这些提名结束了数月来对美联储领导层的不确定性和猜测。尽管长期国债收益率下降，但市场仍在攀升至历史高位，这表明人们对经济前景仍存疑虑。</blockquote></p><p> The yield for the 10-year Treasury note was hovering just below 1.60%, after climbing over 5 basis points, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes touched record intraday highs on Monday, the start of a historically solid period for equities in the week of Thanksgiving.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率在攀升超过5个基点后徘徊在略低于1.60%的水平，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数周一触及盘中历史新高，这是股市历史上稳定时期的开始。感恩节的一周。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the Fed appears split about monetary-policy next steps, with some advocating for a go-slow approach to tapering and interest-rate raises, while others have been championing a faster rate of normalization moves to beat back inflation. The pace of consumer inflation over the past year marched to 6.2% in October from 5.4% in the prior month. That is more than triple the Federal Reserve's 2% target and is the highest rate since November 1990.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储在货币政策下一步措施上似乎存在分歧，一些人主张采取缓慢的缩减和加息方式，而另一些人则主张加快正常化步伐以抑制通胀。过去一年的消费者通胀率从上月的5.4%升至10月份的6.2%。这是美联储2%目标的三倍多，也是自1990年11月以来的最高利率。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook for inflation seems uncertain, with some betting that pricing pressures will intensify, while others are making the case that inflation is in the process of peaking.</p><p><blockquote>通胀前景似乎不确定，一些人押注定价压力将加剧，而另一些人则认为通胀正在见顶。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Powell has been viewed by supporters within the administration as a steady hand, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, describing him as helping \"restore bipartisan support for the central bank one decade after its reputation was badly bruised by the 2008 financial crisis.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》援引消息人士的话报道称，鲍威尔被政府内部的支持者视为一只稳定的手，称他帮助“在央行声誉因2008年金融危机而严重受损十年后恢复了两党对央行的支持”。危机。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs,\" Biden said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登在一份声明中表示：“经过过去20个月的考验，我完全相信鲍威尔主席和布雷纳德博士将提供我们国家所需的强有力的领导。”</blockquote></p><p> The Senate is expected to confirm Powell, 68, before his first term expires in February.</p><p><blockquote>预计参议院将在68岁的鲍威尔的第一个任期于2月份到期之前确认他的身份。</blockquote></p><p> The Journal report said that putting Brainard as the Fed No. 2 represents a compromise for Biden with progressives in his party who had criticized Powell. Indeed, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, accused Powell of watering down financial safeguards put in place after the panic of 2008 and called him a \"dangerous man.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》报道称，让布雷纳德担任美联储二号人物代表了拜登与党内批评鲍威尔的进步人士的妥协。事实上，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)指责鲍威尔淡化了2008年恐慌后实施的金融保障措施，并称他为“危险人物”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, Powell's renomination represents \"one less worry now,\" for markets participants.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示，鲍威尔的再次提名代表着市场参与者“现在少了一个担忧”。</blockquote></p><p> Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said that \"with elevating inflation concerns on just about everyone's mind, Brainard would have been more difficult for the market to digest as chair.\"</p><p><blockquote>Thornburg Investment Management投资联席主管杰夫·克林格霍弗(Jeff Klingelhofer)表示，“随着几乎每个人都对通胀担忧加剧，布雷纳德担任主席会更难让市场消化。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Her appointment to vice chair offers Democrats a ballast to Powell and a likely regulatory win,\" he wrote, in emailed remarks.</p><p><blockquote>他在电子邮件中写道：“她被任命为副主席为民主党人提供了对鲍威尔的压舱石，并可能在监管方面取得胜利。”</blockquote></p><p> Biden will still oversee three other nominations for the Fed, including a replacement for Federal Reserve Gov. Randal Quarles, after a number of members announcement early retirements. Quarles said that he would resign at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>在一些成员宣布提前退休后，拜登仍将监督美联储的其他三项提名，包括美联储理事兰德尔·夸尔斯的继任者。夸尔斯表示，他将在12月底辞职。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Powell's pick is likely to be a positive for digital assets like bitcoin , which the central banker has said that he would not move to restrict. The Fed also has been working on its own central bank digital currency, or CBDC.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔的选择可能对比特币等数字资产有利，鲍威尔曾表示不会采取行动限制这些资产。美联储也一直在研究自己的央行数字货币（CBDC）。</blockquote></p><p> Bank stocks also were climbing reports, MarketWatch's Steve Gelsi. He notes that Brainard's name had come up as someone who might take bank regulator to replace the position being vacated by Trump nominee Quarles. The position could be vacated for some time, with potential candidates including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, former Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin and acting comptroller of the currency Michael Hsu in the mix.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Steve Gelsi报告称，银行股也在攀升。他指出，布雷纳德的名字可能会接替特朗普提名人夸尔斯空出的职位。该职位可能会空缺一段时间，潜在候选人包括亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克、前美联储理事莎拉·布鲁姆·拉斯金和代理货币审计长迈克尔·许。</blockquote></p><p> The financial sectors&nbsp;rose 1.4% on Monday, among the best performing among the S&amp;P 500's 11 sectors on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.3%, while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.8%, as Treasury yields climbed on the session.</p><p><blockquote>金融板块周一上涨1.4%，在周一标普500 11个板块中表现最好。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF上涨1.3%，Invesco KBW Bank ETF上涨1.8%，因国债收益率盘中攀升。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what Powell's nomination for 2nd term as Fed chairman means for markets<blockquote>这就是鲍威尔被提名连任美联储主席对市场的意义</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what Powell's nomination for 2nd term as Fed chairman means for markets<blockquote>这就是鲍威尔被提名连任美联储主席对市场的意义</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 07:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say</p><p><blockquote>分析师称，竞争对手布雷纳德获得第二名，投资者受到“连续性”的鼓舞</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d3ac1d26d057b0dd795501f245715c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock-market investors appeared to be cheering President Joe Biden's decision Monday to nominate Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman.</p><p><blockquote>股市投资者似乎对乔·拜登总统周一提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席第二个四年任期的决定感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p> The move had been widely anticipated by many, including betting markets.</p><p><blockquote>此举受到了包括博彩市场在内的许多人的广泛预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some questions about Powell being renamed to the helm of the central had been lingering as markets have been anxious about a surge in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, and some have argued that the central bank needs to employ more aggressive tactics or risk a 1970s-style surge in the price of goods and services amid supply-chain bottlenecks and a surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场对大流行后通胀飙升感到焦虑，有关鲍威尔被重新任命为央行行长的一些问题一直挥之不去，一些人认为央行需要采取更激进的策略，否则就会面临20世纪70年代的风险。供应链瓶颈和需求激增导致商品和服务价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Biden's choice was seen as coming down to Powell or Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who was viewed by analysts as potentially more dovish on inflation. Biden nominated Brainard to a term as vice chairwoman, succeeding Richard Clarida, whose term as the central bank's No. 2 official expires on Jan. 31.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的选择被视为取决于鲍威尔或美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德，分析师认为后者在通胀问题上可能更加鸽派。拜登提名布雷纳德担任副主席，接替理查德·克拉里达，后者作为央行二号官员的任期将于1月31日到期。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both were great candidates but sticking with Powell provided valuable continuity as the Fed seeks to implement its new framework and continue to put employment alongside price stability as a core mandate,\" said Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School. \"Particularly with recent price increases and growing concerns about inflation, there are benefits from standing by a trusted and widely respected leader.\"</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院教授凯瑟琳·贾奇表示：“两人都是很好的候选人，但在美联储寻求实施其新框架并继续将就业和价格稳定作为核心任务时，坚持鲍威尔提供了宝贵的连续性。”“特别是在最近物价上涨和对通胀日益担忧的情况下，支持一位值得信赖且广受尊重的领导人是有好处的。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index were all trading at or near records.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均处于或接近历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"The reappointment of Chairman Powell is a very positive development for markets and the economy because it provides continuity at a critical time,\" wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>独立顾问联盟首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)在电子邮件评论中写道：“鲍威尔主席的连任对市场和经济来说是一个非常积极的发展，因为它在关键时刻提供了连续性。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell's nomination also comes as the Fed has begun to taper its monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on a timetable to wind down the program by June. Many also are anticipating that the Fed also might look to raise rates two or three times in 2022 as it attempts to rein in the surge in inflation and normalize interest rates in the aftermath of the worst pandemic in over a century.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔获得提名之际，美联储已开始缩减每月购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的规模，并计划在6月前结束该计划。许多人还预计，美联储也可能在2022年加息两到三次，试图在一个多世纪以来最严重的疫情之后遏制通胀飙升并使利率正常化。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is experiencing an increase in inflation and the Fed has already taken steps to reduce their extraordinary stimulus measures (tapering), but they will need to move more quickly in addressing the inflation threats so that they don't become entrenched,\" Zaccarelli writes.</p><p><blockquote>“经济正在经历通胀上升，美联储已经采取措施减少非常规刺激措施（缩减），但他们需要更快地应对通胀威胁，以免它们变得根深蒂固，”扎卡雷利写道。</blockquote></p><p> The nominations end months of uncertainty and speculation about the leadership of the Fed at what is viewed as a crucial time in the recovery phase of the economy. Markets have been climbing to all-time highs even as yields for long-dated Treasurys were receding, suggesting that doubts remain about the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在被视为经济复苏阶段的关键时刻，这些提名结束了数月来对美联储领导层的不确定性和猜测。尽管长期国债收益率下降，但市场仍在攀升至历史高位，这表明人们对经济前景仍存疑虑。</blockquote></p><p> The yield for the 10-year Treasury note was hovering just below 1.60%, after climbing over 5 basis points, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes touched record intraday highs on Monday, the start of a historically solid period for equities in the week of Thanksgiving.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率在攀升超过5个基点后徘徊在略低于1.60%的水平，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数周一触及盘中历史新高，这是股市历史上稳定时期的开始。感恩节的一周。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the Fed appears split about monetary-policy next steps, with some advocating for a go-slow approach to tapering and interest-rate raises, while others have been championing a faster rate of normalization moves to beat back inflation. The pace of consumer inflation over the past year marched to 6.2% in October from 5.4% in the prior month. That is more than triple the Federal Reserve's 2% target and is the highest rate since November 1990.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储在货币政策下一步措施上似乎存在分歧，一些人主张采取缓慢的缩减和加息方式，而另一些人则主张加快正常化步伐以抑制通胀。过去一年的消费者通胀率从上月的5.4%升至10月份的6.2%。这是美联储2%目标的三倍多，也是自1990年11月以来的最高利率。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook for inflation seems uncertain, with some betting that pricing pressures will intensify, while others are making the case that inflation is in the process of peaking.</p><p><blockquote>通胀前景似乎不确定，一些人押注定价压力将加剧，而另一些人则认为通胀正在见顶。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Powell has been viewed by supporters within the administration as a steady hand, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, describing him as helping \"restore bipartisan support for the central bank one decade after its reputation was badly bruised by the 2008 financial crisis.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》援引消息人士的话报道称，鲍威尔被政府内部的支持者视为一只稳定的手，称他帮助“在央行声誉因2008年金融危机而严重受损十年后恢复了两党对央行的支持”。危机。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs,\" Biden said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登在一份声明中表示：“经过过去20个月的考验，我完全相信鲍威尔主席和布雷纳德博士将提供我们国家所需的强有力的领导。”</blockquote></p><p> The Senate is expected to confirm Powell, 68, before his first term expires in February.</p><p><blockquote>预计参议院将在68岁的鲍威尔的第一个任期于2月份到期之前确认他的身份。</blockquote></p><p> The Journal report said that putting Brainard as the Fed No. 2 represents a compromise for Biden with progressives in his party who had criticized Powell. Indeed, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, accused Powell of watering down financial safeguards put in place after the panic of 2008 and called him a \"dangerous man.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》报道称，让布雷纳德担任美联储二号人物代表了拜登与党内批评鲍威尔的进步人士的妥协。事实上，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)指责鲍威尔淡化了2008年恐慌后实施的金融保障措施，并称他为“危险人物”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, Powell's renomination represents \"one less worry now,\" for markets participants.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示，鲍威尔的再次提名代表着市场参与者“现在少了一个担忧”。</blockquote></p><p> Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said that \"with elevating inflation concerns on just about everyone's mind, Brainard would have been more difficult for the market to digest as chair.\"</p><p><blockquote>Thornburg Investment Management投资联席主管杰夫·克林格霍弗(Jeff Klingelhofer)表示，“随着几乎每个人都对通胀担忧加剧，布雷纳德担任主席会更难让市场消化。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Her appointment to vice chair offers Democrats a ballast to Powell and a likely regulatory win,\" he wrote, in emailed remarks.</p><p><blockquote>他在电子邮件中写道：“她被任命为副主席为民主党人提供了对鲍威尔的压舱石，并可能在监管方面取得胜利。”</blockquote></p><p> Biden will still oversee three other nominations for the Fed, including a replacement for Federal Reserve Gov. Randal Quarles, after a number of members announcement early retirements. Quarles said that he would resign at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>在一些成员宣布提前退休后，拜登仍将监督美联储的其他三项提名，包括美联储理事兰德尔·夸尔斯的继任者。夸尔斯表示，他将在12月底辞职。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Powell's pick is likely to be a positive for digital assets like bitcoin , which the central banker has said that he would not move to restrict. The Fed also has been working on its own central bank digital currency, or CBDC.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔的选择可能对比特币等数字资产有利，鲍威尔曾表示不会采取行动限制这些资产。美联储也一直在研究自己的央行数字货币（CBDC）。</blockquote></p><p> Bank stocks also were climbing reports, MarketWatch's Steve Gelsi. He notes that Brainard's name had come up as someone who might take bank regulator to replace the position being vacated by Trump nominee Quarles. The position could be vacated for some time, with potential candidates including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, former Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin and acting comptroller of the currency Michael Hsu in the mix.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Steve Gelsi报告称，银行股也在攀升。他指出，布雷纳德的名字可能会接替特朗普提名人夸尔斯空出的职位。该职位可能会空缺一段时间，潜在候选人包括亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克、前美联储理事莎拉·布鲁姆·拉斯金和代理货币审计长迈克尔·许。</blockquote></p><p> The financial sectors&nbsp;rose 1.4% on Monday, among the best performing among the S&amp;P 500's 11 sectors on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.3%, while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.8%, as Treasury yields climbed on the session.</p><p><blockquote>金融板块周一上涨1.4%，在周一标普500 11个板块中表现最好。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF上涨1.3%，Invesco KBW Bank ETF上涨1.8%，因国债收益率盘中攀升。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-powells-nomination-for-2nd-term-as-fed-chairman-means-for-markets-11637599539?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","XLF":"金融ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-powells-nomination-for-2nd-term-as-fed-chairman-means-for-markets-11637599539?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2185808120","content_text":"Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say\nMarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images\nStock-market investors appeared to be cheering President Joe Biden's decision Monday to nominate Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman.\nThe move had been widely anticipated by many, including betting markets.\nSome questions about Powell being renamed to the helm of the central had been lingering as markets have been anxious about a surge in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, and some have argued that the central bank needs to employ more aggressive tactics or risk a 1970s-style surge in the price of goods and services amid supply-chain bottlenecks and a surge in demand.\nBiden's choice was seen as coming down to Powell or Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who was viewed by analysts as potentially more dovish on inflation. Biden nominated Brainard to a term as vice chairwoman, succeeding Richard Clarida, whose term as the central bank's No. 2 official expires on Jan. 31.\n\"Both were great candidates but sticking with Powell provided valuable continuity as the Fed seeks to implement its new framework and continue to put employment alongside price stability as a core mandate,\" said Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School. \"Particularly with recent price increases and growing concerns about inflation, there are benefits from standing by a trusted and widely respected leader.\"\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index were all trading at or near records.\n\"The reappointment of Chairman Powell is a very positive development for markets and the economy because it provides continuity at a critical time,\" wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in emailed comments.\nPowell's nomination also comes as the Fed has begun to taper its monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on a timetable to wind down the program by June. Many also are anticipating that the Fed also might look to raise rates two or three times in 2022 as it attempts to rein in the surge in inflation and normalize interest rates in the aftermath of the worst pandemic in over a century.\n\"The economy is experiencing an increase in inflation and the Fed has already taken steps to reduce their extraordinary stimulus measures (tapering), but they will need to move more quickly in addressing the inflation threats so that they don't become entrenched,\" Zaccarelli writes.\nThe nominations end months of uncertainty and speculation about the leadership of the Fed at what is viewed as a crucial time in the recovery phase of the economy. Markets have been climbing to all-time highs even as yields for long-dated Treasurys were receding, suggesting that doubts remain about the economic outlook.\nThe yield for the 10-year Treasury note was hovering just below 1.60%, after climbing over 5 basis points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes touched record intraday highs on Monday, the start of a historically solid period for equities in the week of Thanksgiving.\nOn top of that, the Fed appears split about monetary-policy next steps, with some advocating for a go-slow approach to tapering and interest-rate raises, while others have been championing a faster rate of normalization moves to beat back inflation. The pace of consumer inflation over the past year marched to 6.2% in October from 5.4% in the prior month. That is more than triple the Federal Reserve's 2% target and is the highest rate since November 1990.\nThe outlook for inflation seems uncertain, with some betting that pricing pressures will intensify, while others are making the case that inflation is in the process of peaking.\nFor his part, Powell has been viewed by supporters within the administration as a steady hand, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, describing him as helping \"restore bipartisan support for the central bank one decade after its reputation was badly bruised by the 2008 financial crisis.\"\n\"I have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs,\" Biden said in a statement.\nThe Senate is expected to confirm Powell, 68, before his first term expires in February.\nThe Journal report said that putting Brainard as the Fed No. 2 represents a compromise for Biden with progressives in his party who had criticized Powell. Indeed, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, accused Powell of watering down financial safeguards put in place after the panic of 2008 and called him a \"dangerous man.\"\nRyan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, Powell's renomination represents \"one less worry now,\" for markets participants.\nJeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said that \"with elevating inflation concerns on just about everyone's mind, Brainard would have been more difficult for the market to digest as chair.\"\n\"Her appointment to vice chair offers Democrats a ballast to Powell and a likely regulatory win,\" he wrote, in emailed remarks.\nBiden will still oversee three other nominations for the Fed, including a replacement for Federal Reserve Gov. Randal Quarles, after a number of members announcement early retirements. Quarles said that he would resign at the end of December.\nMeanwhile, Powell's pick is likely to be a positive for digital assets like bitcoin , which the central banker has said that he would not move to restrict. The Fed also has been working on its own central bank digital currency, or CBDC.\nBank stocks also were climbing reports, MarketWatch's Steve Gelsi. He notes that Brainard's name had come up as someone who might take bank regulator to replace the position being vacated by Trump nominee Quarles. The position could be vacated for some time, with potential candidates including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, former Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin and acting comptroller of the currency Michael Hsu in the mix.\nThe financial sectors rose 1.4% on Monday, among the best performing among the S&P 500's 11 sectors on Monday. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF rose 1.3%, while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF rose 1.8%, as Treasury yields climbed on the session.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XLF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179834911,"gmtCreate":1626501356533,"gmtModify":1633926183302,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179834911","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":879771984,"gmtCreate":1636781497407,"gmtModify":1636781497545,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879771984","repostId":"1102251183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102251183","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636772424,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102251183?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102251183","media":"Barrons","summary":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Mo","content":"<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一早上，辉瑞公司首席科学官米凯尔·多尔斯滕(Mikael Dolsten)接到电话时，听起来很头晕。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其Covid-19抗病毒药物将高危成年人的住院风险降低了89%。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说：“你能够打破这种类型的世界纪录，同时偶然获得大满贯，这不可能只是一件随机的事情。”他在试图说明辉瑞的双重胜利：在短短10个月内开发出了一种效果惊人的Covid-19疫苗，一年后又开发出了一种同样令人惊叹的Covid-19抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉（Albert Bourla）要求投资者对多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务进行豪赌。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都更聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla已经摆脱了辉瑞的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者健康产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司的生死存亡都取决于Dolsten的科学实力。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在2019年11月的一篇封面报道中，<i>巴伦周刊</i>认为布尔拉和多尔斯滕可以成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞的理由<i>巴伦周刊</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从大流行中获利会带来新的风险。在全球超过70亿剂疫苗中，低收入国家仅占不到1%。如果辉瑞抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞股价飙升10.9%，创下至少20年来的最佳单日表现。尽管如此，由于该股目前易手价格约为50美元，投资者继续低估该公司的价值。投资者对辉瑞的定价是明年预期收益的12倍，低于强生(JNJ)和礼来(LLY)等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去对少数年收入数十亿美元的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧是合理的，但辉瑞的科学政变应该让投资者相信该公司的科学能够安全地越过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞科学实力的最佳例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>虽然辉瑞的新冠肺炎疫苗来自德国生物技术公司BioNTech(BNTX)的实验室，但新的新冠肺炎抗病毒药物是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞位于美国东北部实验室的科学家“梦之队”研制出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将其工作分为与BioNTech在疫苗上的合作和对Covid-19药丸的探索。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的“巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目规模要小得多——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源进行运营。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，拥有相当适中的资源，”多尔斯滕说。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括药物设计主管夏洛特·阿勒顿。科学家们从辉瑞公司多年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“（辉瑞的）制药研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂已经静脉内施用，并且当口服递送时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应，”多尔斯滕说。科学家们创造了600种化合物来确定正确的药物，这个过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“在这里，四年变成了四个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药物。该公司目前正在进行该药物的多项2/3期试验，包括一项针对高风险患者，一项针对非高风险患者，以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防试验。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司(MRK)的新冠治疗药物有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Louise Chen表示：“这无疑有助于证明辉瑞的制药研发比人们想象的要好。”她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈表示，在Covid-19疫苗和药丸销售的持久性更加明确以及其余产品得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为没有一个事件会引发该股下一个级别的重新评级，”她说。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得对辉瑞的押注成为一项长期投资。与此同时，Moderna(MRNA)最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不平等而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对Moderna越来越失望，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便能够以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司“挺身而出”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna股价在过去三个月下跌了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞面临着侵蚀大约一年前推出Covid-19疫苗时赢得的巨大商誉的风险。本月早些时候，辉瑞首席执行官布尔拉指责低收入国家疫苗分配不公平，告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>没有下订单是他们的错。辉瑞公司已以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，捐赠给贫穷国家，并表示到明年年底将向中低收入国家提供总计至少20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>在抗病毒药物方面，辉瑞仅表示将为较贫穷国家提供分级定价，与其疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫穷国家提供自己的Covid-19药丸的计划形成鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，允许其药丸在全球范围内获得许可，无需向默克公司支付特许权使用费。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕表示，辉瑞正在考虑根据与默克类似的机制许可其药物。“我们将考虑这些选择，”他说。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保参与其中的人都能获得这样做的建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的一步来得太快了。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家外抗议，呼吁辉瑞分享其疫苗制造技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞公司相对受到华盛顿的青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学知识继续推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一早上，辉瑞公司首席科学官米凯尔·多尔斯滕(Mikael Dolsten)接到电话时，听起来很头晕。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其Covid-19抗病毒药物将高危成年人的住院风险降低了89%。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说：“你能够打破这种类型的世界纪录，同时偶然获得大满贯，这不可能只是一件随机的事情。”他在试图说明辉瑞的双重胜利：在短短10个月内开发出了一种效果惊人的Covid-19疫苗，一年后又开发出了一种同样令人惊叹的Covid-19抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉（Albert Bourla）要求投资者对多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务进行豪赌。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都更聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla已经摆脱了辉瑞的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者健康产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司的生死存亡都取决于Dolsten的科学实力。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在2019年11月的一篇封面报道中，<i>巴伦周刊</i>认为布尔拉和多尔斯滕可以成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞的理由<i>巴伦周刊</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从大流行中获利会带来新的风险。在全球超过70亿剂疫苗中，低收入国家仅占不到1%。如果辉瑞抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞股价飙升10.9%，创下至少20年来的最佳单日表现。尽管如此，由于该股目前易手价格约为50美元，投资者继续低估该公司的价值。投资者对辉瑞的定价是明年预期收益的12倍，低于强生(JNJ)和礼来(LLY)等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去对少数年收入数十亿美元的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧是合理的，但辉瑞的科学政变应该让投资者相信该公司的科学能够安全地越过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞科学实力的最佳例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>虽然辉瑞的新冠肺炎疫苗来自德国生物技术公司BioNTech(BNTX)的实验室，但新的新冠肺炎抗病毒药物是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞位于美国东北部实验室的科学家“梦之队”研制出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将其工作分为与BioNTech在疫苗上的合作和对Covid-19药丸的探索。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的“巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目规模要小得多——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源进行运营。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，拥有相当适中的资源，”多尔斯滕说。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括药物设计主管夏洛特·阿勒顿。科学家们从辉瑞公司多年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“（辉瑞的）制药研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂已经静脉内施用，并且当口服递送时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应，”多尔斯滕说。科学家们创造了600种化合物来确定正确的药物，这个过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“在这里，四年变成了四个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药物。该公司目前正在进行该药物的多项2/3期试验，包括一项针对高风险患者，一项针对非高风险患者，以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防试验。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司(MRK)的新冠治疗药物有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Louise Chen表示：“这无疑有助于证明辉瑞的制药研发比人们想象的要好。”她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈表示，在Covid-19疫苗和药丸销售的持久性更加明确以及其余产品得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为没有一个事件会引发该股下一个级别的重新评级，”她说。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得对辉瑞的押注成为一项长期投资。与此同时，Moderna(MRNA)最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不平等而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对Moderna越来越失望，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便能够以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司“挺身而出”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna股价在过去三个月下跌了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞面临着侵蚀大约一年前推出Covid-19疫苗时赢得的巨大商誉的风险。本月早些时候，辉瑞首席执行官布尔拉指责低收入国家疫苗分配不公平，告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>没有下订单是他们的错。辉瑞公司已以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，捐赠给贫穷国家，并表示到明年年底将向中低收入国家提供总计至少20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>在抗病毒药物方面，辉瑞仅表示将为较贫穷国家提供分级定价，与其疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫穷国家提供自己的Covid-19药丸的计划形成鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，允许其药丸在全球范围内获得许可，无需向默克公司支付特许权使用费。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕表示，辉瑞正在考虑根据与默克类似的机制许可其药物。“我们将考虑这些选择，”他说。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保参与其中的人都能获得这样做的建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的一步来得太快了。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家外抗议，呼吁辉瑞分享其疫苗制造技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞公司相对受到华盛顿的青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学知识继续推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102251183","content_text":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.\n“It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.\nTwo years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.\nBourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.\nIn a cover story in November 2019, Barron’s argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.\nThe new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that Barron’s made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.\nPfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Eli Lilly (LLY).\nThe Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.\nThe worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.\nThe success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.\nWhile Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech BioNTech (BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.\nIn the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.\nThe antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.\n“The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.\nDolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.\n“[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought.”\nThe protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.\n“They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.\nPfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from Merck (MRK).\n“It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.\nChen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.\n“There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”\nThat makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of Moderna (MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.\nBiden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”\nModerna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.\nAs the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling Barron’s that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.\nWhen it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.\nThat contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.\nDolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”\nSuch a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.\nAn aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868878664,"gmtCreate":1632633501458,"gmtModify":1632648145653,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868878664","repostId":"2170146216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877180785,"gmtCreate":1637897557685,"gmtModify":1637897557834,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877180785","repostId":"1174337163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174337163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637897193,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174337163?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174337163","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industria","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li>  <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li>  <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高通处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的长期增长趋势中受益。</li><li>其最近的经营业绩相当不错，未来几个季度的势头应该会保持强劲，尽管预计中期增长将放缓。</li><li>在股市强劲反弹之后，上涨空间现在更加有限，投资者应该在潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>QUALCOMM</b>(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote><b>QUALCOMM</b>在5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的支持下，(QCOM)在未来几年拥有有趣的增长前景，但其股价在过去几个月中表现相当强劲，高通现在被“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;<b>MediaTek</b>(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;<b>Apple’s</b>(AAPL) modem business.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我推荐高通作为5G和物联网（IoT）长期增长主题中的一个有趣的公司，尽管存在一些中期风险，例如来自<b>联发科</b>(OTCPK：MDTKF)在移动领域以及失去的可能性<b>苹果的</b>(AAPL)调制解调器业务。</blockquote></p><p> Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>自从我发表这篇文章以来，在强劲的盈利和过去一周乐观的投资者日的支撑下，高通的股价在大约两个月内上涨了39%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了强劲的上涨之后，我认为是时候看看如果高通的股价现在很贵，它是否仍然为投资者提供价值了。在本文中，我回顾了其最近的收益和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期收益预期，检查了其估值是否仍然有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高通报告了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司报告第四季度收入比预期高出5%，而净利润超出预期近13%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在整个财年，该公司能够超额完成2019年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，高通营收达335.6亿美元（同比增长43%），营业收入接近103亿美元（同比增长80%）。其净利润同比增长74%，超过90亿美元，净利润率达到26.9%（2020财年为22.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>高通的增长引擎是QCT部门（技术），收入同比增长64%，而许可部门（QTL）收入同比增长26%。在QTL领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其QTL收入的62%。然而，鉴于手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变，预计这一权重将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些结果非常好，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入合计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展良好，执行力一直积极，这增加了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，当前的芯片短缺也影响了高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，使其最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>关于股东薪酬政策，在上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并分配了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东资本回报总额达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为1.5%左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家“成长型”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.</p><p><blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也很乐观，该公司预计营收将超过100亿美元，摊薄后每股收益在2.53-2.73美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，这一前景意味着年收入接近400亿美元，比上一财年增长19%。</blockquote></p><p> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.</p><p><blockquote>这符合当前华尔街的预期，因为目前的共识是2022财年的收入为395亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently that<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近有更多传言称<b>苹果</b>（AAPL）将在2023年使用自己的5G调制解调器芯片，而不是使用高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会很大，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以抵消失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>正如我之前在高通上讨论的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了其产品组合，以满足未来几年对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司处于有利地位，可以从5G和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其增长战略一直是使其产品供应多样化，以便能够为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，增加高通的总目标市场和比依赖更高的长期增长前景过于依赖移动行业。</blockquote></p><p> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有多项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其潜在市场总额预计将在未来十年大幅扩大，从目前的约1000亿美元增加到2030年的约7000亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，产生大量数据，成为公司未来增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.</p><p><blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其跨越手机以外的多个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对该公司来说仍然相对较小，但具有巨大的增长前景，将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。未来几年的业务。例如，高通的目标是到2024财年物联网年收入约为90亿美元，而去年为50亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内年收入将从去年的10亿美元增长到约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.</p><p><blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的比重将逐渐增加至85%左右，比去年的总出货量翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，以2021财年末净债务与EBITDA比率低于0.5倍来衡量，因此它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将分配近100%的自由现金流未来几年流向股东。</blockquote></p><p> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果该公司进行收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加该公司的财务杠杆，而且最有可能的是，其战略将在随后几年转向降低杠杆，直到再次达到像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Estimates &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估计和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.</p><p><blockquote>关于中期预测，未来四年高通的收入预计将以每年约7.3%的速度增长，与2021财年相比大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果运营势头保持强劲，未来几个月还有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.</p><p><blockquote>2025财年的收入预计约为440亿美元，考虑到2022财年的收入预计约为400亿美元，这似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到2025财年的收入将达到500亿美元左右，预计2023财年至2025财年的年收入增长约为7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote></p><p> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的估计，2025财年其净利润预计将增至140亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到2025财年每股收益约为12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.</p><p><blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用2025财年的预测来了解高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.</p><p><blockquote>根据高通到2025财年的每股收益预期为12美元，以及过去几年混合预期收益（未来12个月）17.3倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通到2024年9月的目标价为每股207美元。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，基于这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为15%，这并不令人印象深刻，并表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价中。</blockquote></p><p> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去两年高通的预期市盈率有些波动，预期市盈率在13-22倍之间。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期内有更大的上涨潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>高通近几个季度的经营势头明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略正在取得良好进展，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其股票已迅速将基本面的改善与公司最近的盈利和投资者日结合起来，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。投资高通的投资者应该“持有”并在未来潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li>  <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li>  <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高通处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的长期增长趋势中受益。</li><li>其最近的经营业绩相当不错，未来几个季度的势头应该会保持强劲，尽管预计中期增长将放缓。</li><li>在股市强劲反弹之后，上涨空间现在更加有限，投资者应该在潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>QUALCOMM</b>(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote><b>QUALCOMM</b>在5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的支持下，(QCOM)在未来几年拥有有趣的增长前景，但其股价在过去几个月中表现相当强劲，高通现在被“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;<b>MediaTek</b>(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;<b>Apple’s</b>(AAPL) modem business.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我推荐高通作为5G和物联网（IoT）长期增长主题中的一个有趣的公司，尽管存在一些中期风险，例如来自<b>联发科</b>(OTCPK：MDTKF)在移动领域以及失去的可能性<b>苹果的</b>(AAPL)调制解调器业务。</blockquote></p><p> Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>自从我发表这篇文章以来，在强劲的盈利和过去一周乐观的投资者日的支撑下，高通的股价在大约两个月内上涨了39%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了强劲的上涨之后，我认为是时候看看如果高通的股价现在很贵，它是否仍然为投资者提供价值了。在本文中，我回顾了其最近的收益和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期收益预期，检查了其估值是否仍然有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高通报告了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司报告第四季度收入比预期高出5%，而净利润超出预期近13%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在整个财年，该公司能够超额完成2019年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，高通营收达335.6亿美元（同比增长43%），营业收入接近103亿美元（同比增长80%）。其净利润同比增长74%，超过90亿美元，净利润率达到26.9%（2020财年为22.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>高通的增长引擎是QCT部门（技术），收入同比增长64%，而许可部门（QTL）收入同比增长26%。在QTL领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其QTL收入的62%。然而，鉴于手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变，预计这一权重将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些结果非常好，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入合计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展良好，执行力一直积极，这增加了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，当前的芯片短缺也影响了高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，使其最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>关于股东薪酬政策，在上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并分配了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东资本回报总额达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为1.5%左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家“成长型”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.</p><p><blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也很乐观，该公司预计营收将超过100亿美元，摊薄后每股收益在2.53-2.73美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，这一前景意味着年收入接近400亿美元，比上一财年增长19%。</blockquote></p><p> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.</p><p><blockquote>这符合当前华尔街的预期，因为目前的共识是2022财年的收入为395亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently that<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近有更多传言称<b>苹果</b>（AAPL）将在2023年使用自己的5G调制解调器芯片，而不是使用高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会很大，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以抵消失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>正如我之前在高通上讨论的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了其产品组合，以满足未来几年对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司处于有利地位，可以从5G和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其增长战略一直是使其产品供应多样化，以便能够为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，增加高通的总目标市场和比依赖更高的长期增长前景过于依赖移动行业。</blockquote></p><p> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有多项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其潜在市场总额预计将在未来十年大幅扩大，从目前的约1000亿美元增加到2030年的约7000亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，产生大量数据，成为公司未来增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.</p><p><blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其跨越手机以外的多个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对该公司来说仍然相对较小，但具有巨大的增长前景，将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。未来几年的业务。例如，高通的目标是到2024财年物联网年收入约为90亿美元，而去年为50亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内年收入将从去年的10亿美元增长到约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.</p><p><blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的比重将逐渐增加至85%左右，比去年的总出货量翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，以2021财年末净债务与EBITDA比率低于0.5倍来衡量，因此它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将分配近100%的自由现金流未来几年流向股东。</blockquote></p><p> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果该公司进行收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加该公司的财务杠杆，而且最有可能的是，其战略将在随后几年转向降低杠杆，直到再次达到像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Estimates &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估计和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.</p><p><blockquote>关于中期预测，未来四年高通的收入预计将以每年约7.3%的速度增长，与2021财年相比大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果运营势头保持强劲，未来几个月还有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.</p><p><blockquote>2025财年的收入预计约为440亿美元，考虑到2022财年的收入预计约为400亿美元，这似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到2025财年的收入将达到500亿美元左右，预计2023财年至2025财年的年收入增长约为7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote></p><p> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的估计，2025财年其净利润预计将增至140亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到2025财年每股收益约为12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.</p><p><blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用2025财年的预测来了解高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.</p><p><blockquote>根据高通到2025财年的每股收益预期为12美元，以及过去几年混合预期收益（未来12个月）17.3倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通到2024年9月的目标价为每股207美元。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，基于这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为15%，这并不令人印象深刻，并表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价中。</blockquote></p><p> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去两年高通的预期市盈率有些波动，预期市盈率在13-22倍之间。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期内有更大的上涨潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>高通近几个季度的经营势头明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略正在取得良好进展，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其股票已迅速将基本面的改善与公司最近的盈利和投资者日结合起来，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。投资高通的投资者应该“持有”并在未来潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174337163","content_text":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.\nIts recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.\nAfter a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.\n\nG0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nQUALCOMM(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.\nBackground\nAbout two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing Apple’s(AAPL) modem business.\nSince my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\nAfter a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.\nRecent Earnings\nQualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.\nFor the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.\nIn FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nDespite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.\nI see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.\nThis clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.\nRegarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.\nQualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.\nThis is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.\nOn the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently thatApple(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.\nNevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.\nInvestor Day\nAs I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.\nIts growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.\nThe company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nIn the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nRegarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.\nHowever, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.\nEstimates & Valuation\nRegarding medium-term estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.\nFor the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.\nIts bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.\nRegarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.\nBased on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.\nThis means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.\nNote that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.\nSource: Bloomberg.\nBottom Line\nQualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.\nHowever, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844519761,"gmtCreate":1636439123578,"gmtModify":1636439140021,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844519761","repostId":"1151111395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151111395","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636436840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151111395?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-09 13:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Prices are skyrocketing. Goldman Sachs says prices will go even higher<blockquote>物价飞涨。高盛表示价格将会更高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151111395","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN Business)Sticker shock is causing anxiety for millions of Americans right now, with pr","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Sticker shock is causing anxiety for millions of Americans right now, with prices soaring for gasoline, groceries and used cars.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）随着汽油、食品杂货和二手车的价格飙升，价格冲击正在引起数百万美国人的焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than expected to work out the supply-demand imbalances at the heart of inflation, Goldman Sachs warned clients Sunday night.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周日晚上警告客户，不幸的是，解决通胀核心的供需失衡需要比预期更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"The inflation overshoot will likely get worse before it gets better,\" the bank's economists wrote in a research report.</p><p><blockquote>该行经济学家在一份研究报告中写道：“通胀超调在好转之前可能会变得更糟。”</blockquote></p><p> Like much of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs had been anticipating high prices would swiftly come back to earth. Now, there is a realization that inflation will be sticking around longer as supply struggles to keep up with surging demand.</p><p><blockquote>与华尔街和美联储的大部分人一样，高盛一直预计高价格将迅速回归现实。现在，人们意识到，随着供应难以跟上需求的激增，通胀将持续更长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Due to \"prolonged\" supply-demand imbalances, soaring wages and rising rent amid the housing boom, inflation metrics will remain \"quite high for much of next year,\" Goldman Sachs conceded.</p><p><blockquote>高盛承认，由于“长期”的供需失衡、房地产繁荣期间工资飙升和租金上涨，通胀指标将“在明年的大部分时间里保持相当高”。</blockquote></p><p> That's bad news for Americans struggling with the high cost of living, as well as businesses squeezed by shortages and rising prices. Low-income families and those living on a fixed budget are hurt the most by rising prices on necessities like gas, food and clothing.</p><p><blockquote>对于在高生活成本中挣扎的美国人以及受到短缺和物价上涨挤压的企业来说，这是个坏消息。低收入家庭和那些靠固定预算生活的人受到汽油、食品和衣服等必需品价格上涨的伤害最大。</blockquote></p><p> The inflation forecast is also a setback for the White House because high prices and supply chain problems are souring Americans' views on the US economy — which had been expected to be a strongpoint for President Joe Biden this year.</p><p><blockquote>通胀预测对白宫来说也是一个挫折，因为高物价和供应链问题正在恶化美国人对美国经济的看法——此前预计美国经济将成为总统乔·拜登今年的强项。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, nearly two-thirds of Americans described the economy as poor in a poll released last week. Nearly half expect the economy to get worse in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>相反，在上周公布的一项民意调查中，近三分之二的美国人将经济描述为糟糕。近一半的人预计明年经济会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>30-year high for inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀创30年新高</b></blockquote></p><p> Annual inflation climbed at the fastest pace in more than 30 years during September, according to the Commerce Department. That's based on the 4.4% increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index. Excluding food and energy, core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, rose 3.6% in August and September, the fastest pace since May 1991.</p><p><blockquote>据美国商务部称，9月份年度通胀率以30多年来最快的速度攀升。这是基于个人消费支出价格指数4.4%的涨幅。不包括食品和能源，美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE在8月和9月上涨了3.6%，为1991年5月以来的最快增速。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has now changed its tune on inflation, acknowledging that high prices won't go away anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在已经改变了对通胀的态度，承认高物价不会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see shortages and bottlenecks persisting into next year, well into next year,\" Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters during a press conference last week. \"We see higher inflation persisting.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上对记者表示：“我们认为短缺和瓶颈将持续到明年，甚至明年。”“我们看到通胀持续走高。”</blockquote></p><p> Everyday Americans seem to agree.</p><p><blockquote>普通美国人似乎都同意。</blockquote></p><p> Consumers are now expecting prices to rise by 5.7% over the next year, according to a survey released Monday by the NY Federal Reserve. That marks the highest level since the survey began in June 2013 and the 12th consecutive monthly increase.</p><p><blockquote>纽约美联储周一发布的一项调查显示，消费者目前预计明年物价将上涨5.7%。这是自2013年6月调查开始以来的最高水平，也是连续第12个月增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed watches these surveys closely because expectations of high inflation can change consumer and business behavior, creating a self-fulfilling prophesy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储密切关注这些调查，因为对高通胀的预期可能会改变消费者和企业的行为，从而创造一个自我实现的预言。</blockquote></p><p> The good news is that Goldman Sachs says its core view remains that supply-demand imbalances will \"largely work themselves out, leaving inflation near the Fed's goal.\" That jives with what Powell has said in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，高盛表示，其核心观点仍然是供需失衡将“在很大程度上自行解决，使通胀接近美联储的目标”。这与鲍威尔最近几周所说的一致。</blockquote></p><p> \"We do not think that aggregate demand is on an unsustainable trajectory or that inflation expectations have become unanchored, and the overshoot should therefore ultimately prove transitory,\" Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在报告中写道：“我们不认为总需求处于不可持续的轨道上，也不认为通胀预期已经失控，因此超调最终应该是暂时的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the Fed likely won't need to slam the brakes on the economy to fight inflation through sharp interest rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，美联储可能不需要给经济踩刹车，通过大幅加息来对抗通胀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks tilted towards more, not less, inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险倾向于通胀上升而不是下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, Goldman Sachs expects core PCE inflation to rise from the current 30-year high of 3.6% to 4.4% by the end of 2021. The Fed's preferred inflation metric is expected to eventually cool off to 2.3% at the end of 2022 and 2.1% at the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，高盛预计，到2021年底，核心PCE通胀率将从目前的30年高点3.6%升至4.4%。美联储首选的通胀指标预计最终将在2022年底降至2.3%，在2023年底降至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, core consumer prices are expected to remain in the mid-5% range for \"much of the winter,\" before easing to 4% next summer and 3.2% at the end of 2022, Goldman Sachs said.</p><p><blockquote>同样，高盛表示，核心消费者价格预计将在“冬季大部分时间”保持在5%左右的范围内，然后在明年夏天降至4%，到2022年底降至3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> That's well above the Fed's 2% goal and may keep anxiety about the economy high.</p><p><blockquote>这远高于美联储2%的目标，可能会让人们对经济的焦虑情绪居高不下。</blockquote></p><p> As Powell said during his press conference, there remains vast uncertainty over the inflation outlook. No one can say for certain when prices will get back to normal.</p><p><blockquote>正如鲍威尔在新闻发布会上所说，通胀前景仍存在巨大不确定性。没有人能确定价格何时会恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risks to our forecast are probably tilted to the upside,\" Goldman Sachs acknowledged.</p><p><blockquote>高盛承认：“我们预测的风险可能倾向于上行。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prices are skyrocketing. Goldman Sachs says prices will go even higher<blockquote>物价飞涨。高盛表示价格将会更高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrices are skyrocketing. Goldman Sachs says prices will go even higher<blockquote>物价飞涨。高盛表示价格将会更高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-09 13:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Sticker shock is causing anxiety for millions of Americans right now, with prices soaring for gasoline, groceries and used cars.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）随着汽油、食品杂货和二手车的价格飙升，价格冲击正在引起数百万美国人的焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than expected to work out the supply-demand imbalances at the heart of inflation, Goldman Sachs warned clients Sunday night.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周日晚上警告客户，不幸的是，解决通胀核心的供需失衡需要比预期更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"The inflation overshoot will likely get worse before it gets better,\" the bank's economists wrote in a research report.</p><p><blockquote>该行经济学家在一份研究报告中写道：“通胀超调在好转之前可能会变得更糟。”</blockquote></p><p> Like much of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs had been anticipating high prices would swiftly come back to earth. Now, there is a realization that inflation will be sticking around longer as supply struggles to keep up with surging demand.</p><p><blockquote>与华尔街和美联储的大部分人一样，高盛一直预计高价格将迅速回归现实。现在，人们意识到，随着供应难以跟上需求的激增，通胀将持续更长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Due to \"prolonged\" supply-demand imbalances, soaring wages and rising rent amid the housing boom, inflation metrics will remain \"quite high for much of next year,\" Goldman Sachs conceded.</p><p><blockquote>高盛承认，由于“长期”的供需失衡、房地产繁荣期间工资飙升和租金上涨，通胀指标将“在明年的大部分时间里保持相当高”。</blockquote></p><p> That's bad news for Americans struggling with the high cost of living, as well as businesses squeezed by shortages and rising prices. Low-income families and those living on a fixed budget are hurt the most by rising prices on necessities like gas, food and clothing.</p><p><blockquote>对于在高生活成本中挣扎的美国人以及受到短缺和物价上涨挤压的企业来说，这是个坏消息。低收入家庭和那些靠固定预算生活的人受到汽油、食品和衣服等必需品价格上涨的伤害最大。</blockquote></p><p> The inflation forecast is also a setback for the White House because high prices and supply chain problems are souring Americans' views on the US economy — which had been expected to be a strongpoint for President Joe Biden this year.</p><p><blockquote>通胀预测对白宫来说也是一个挫折，因为高物价和供应链问题正在恶化美国人对美国经济的看法——此前预计美国经济将成为总统乔·拜登今年的强项。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, nearly two-thirds of Americans described the economy as poor in a poll released last week. Nearly half expect the economy to get worse in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>相反，在上周公布的一项民意调查中，近三分之二的美国人将经济描述为糟糕。近一半的人预计明年经济会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>30-year high for inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀创30年新高</b></blockquote></p><p> Annual inflation climbed at the fastest pace in more than 30 years during September, according to the Commerce Department. That's based on the 4.4% increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index. Excluding food and energy, core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, rose 3.6% in August and September, the fastest pace since May 1991.</p><p><blockquote>据美国商务部称，9月份年度通胀率以30多年来最快的速度攀升。这是基于个人消费支出价格指数4.4%的涨幅。不包括食品和能源，美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE在8月和9月上涨了3.6%，为1991年5月以来的最快增速。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has now changed its tune on inflation, acknowledging that high prices won't go away anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在已经改变了对通胀的态度，承认高物价不会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see shortages and bottlenecks persisting into next year, well into next year,\" Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters during a press conference last week. \"We see higher inflation persisting.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上对记者表示：“我们认为短缺和瓶颈将持续到明年，甚至明年。”“我们看到通胀持续走高。”</blockquote></p><p> Everyday Americans seem to agree.</p><p><blockquote>普通美国人似乎都同意。</blockquote></p><p> Consumers are now expecting prices to rise by 5.7% over the next year, according to a survey released Monday by the NY Federal Reserve. That marks the highest level since the survey began in June 2013 and the 12th consecutive monthly increase.</p><p><blockquote>纽约美联储周一发布的一项调查显示，消费者目前预计明年物价将上涨5.7%。这是自2013年6月调查开始以来的最高水平，也是连续第12个月增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed watches these surveys closely because expectations of high inflation can change consumer and business behavior, creating a self-fulfilling prophesy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储密切关注这些调查，因为对高通胀的预期可能会改变消费者和企业的行为，从而创造一个自我实现的预言。</blockquote></p><p> The good news is that Goldman Sachs says its core view remains that supply-demand imbalances will \"largely work themselves out, leaving inflation near the Fed's goal.\" That jives with what Powell has said in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，高盛表示，其核心观点仍然是供需失衡将“在很大程度上自行解决，使通胀接近美联储的目标”。这与鲍威尔最近几周所说的一致。</blockquote></p><p> \"We do not think that aggregate demand is on an unsustainable trajectory or that inflation expectations have become unanchored, and the overshoot should therefore ultimately prove transitory,\" Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在报告中写道：“我们不认为总需求处于不可持续的轨道上，也不认为通胀预期已经失控，因此超调最终应该是暂时的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the Fed likely won't need to slam the brakes on the economy to fight inflation through sharp interest rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，美联储可能不需要给经济踩刹车，通过大幅加息来对抗通胀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks tilted towards more, not less, inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险倾向于通胀上升而不是下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, Goldman Sachs expects core PCE inflation to rise from the current 30-year high of 3.6% to 4.4% by the end of 2021. The Fed's preferred inflation metric is expected to eventually cool off to 2.3% at the end of 2022 and 2.1% at the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，高盛预计，到2021年底，核心PCE通胀率将从目前的30年高点3.6%升至4.4%。美联储首选的通胀指标预计最终将在2022年底降至2.3%，在2023年底降至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, core consumer prices are expected to remain in the mid-5% range for \"much of the winter,\" before easing to 4% next summer and 3.2% at the end of 2022, Goldman Sachs said.</p><p><blockquote>同样，高盛表示，核心消费者价格预计将在“冬季大部分时间”保持在5%左右的范围内，然后在明年夏天降至4%，到2022年底降至3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> That's well above the Fed's 2% goal and may keep anxiety about the economy high.</p><p><blockquote>这远高于美联储2%的目标，可能会让人们对经济的焦虑情绪居高不下。</blockquote></p><p> As Powell said during his press conference, there remains vast uncertainty over the inflation outlook. No one can say for certain when prices will get back to normal.</p><p><blockquote>正如鲍威尔在新闻发布会上所说，通胀前景仍存在巨大不确定性。没有人能确定价格何时会恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risks to our forecast are probably tilted to the upside,\" Goldman Sachs acknowledged.</p><p><blockquote>高盛承认：“我们预测的风险可能倾向于上行。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/08/economy/inflation-economy-goldman-sachs/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/08/economy/inflation-economy-goldman-sachs/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151111395","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Sticker shock is causing anxiety for millions of Americans right now, with prices soaring for gasoline, groceries and used cars.\nUnfortunately, it's going to take longer than expected to work out the supply-demand imbalances at the heart of inflation, Goldman Sachs warned clients Sunday night.\n\"The inflation overshoot will likely get worse before it gets better,\" the bank's economists wrote in a research report.\nLike much of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs had been anticipating high prices would swiftly come back to earth. Now, there is a realization that inflation will be sticking around longer as supply struggles to keep up with surging demand.\nDue to \"prolonged\" supply-demand imbalances, soaring wages and rising rent amid the housing boom, inflation metrics will remain \"quite high for much of next year,\" Goldman Sachs conceded.\nThat's bad news for Americans struggling with the high cost of living, as well as businesses squeezed by shortages and rising prices. Low-income families and those living on a fixed budget are hurt the most by rising prices on necessities like gas, food and clothing.\nThe inflation forecast is also a setback for the White House because high prices and supply chain problems are souring Americans' views on the US economy — which had been expected to be a strongpoint for President Joe Biden this year.\nInstead, nearly two-thirds of Americans described the economy as poor in a poll released last week. Nearly half expect the economy to get worse in the next year.\n30-year high for inflation\nAnnual inflation climbed at the fastest pace in more than 30 years during September, according to the Commerce Department. That's based on the 4.4% increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index. Excluding food and energy, core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, rose 3.6% in August and September, the fastest pace since May 1991.\nThe Fed has now changed its tune on inflation, acknowledging that high prices won't go away anytime soon.\n\"We see shortages and bottlenecks persisting into next year, well into next year,\" Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters during a press conference last week. \"We see higher inflation persisting.\"\nEveryday Americans seem to agree.\nConsumers are now expecting prices to rise by 5.7% over the next year, according to a survey released Monday by the NY Federal Reserve. That marks the highest level since the survey began in June 2013 and the 12th consecutive monthly increase.\nThe Fed watches these surveys closely because expectations of high inflation can change consumer and business behavior, creating a self-fulfilling prophesy.\nThe good news is that Goldman Sachs says its core view remains that supply-demand imbalances will \"largely work themselves out, leaving inflation near the Fed's goal.\" That jives with what Powell has said in recent weeks.\n\"We do not think that aggregate demand is on an unsustainable trajectory or that inflation expectations have become unanchored, and the overshoot should therefore ultimately prove transitory,\" Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report.\nIn other words, the Fed likely won't need to slam the brakes on the economy to fight inflation through sharp interest rate hikes.\nRisks tilted towards more, not less, inflation\nStill, Goldman Sachs expects core PCE inflation to rise from the current 30-year high of 3.6% to 4.4% by the end of 2021. The Fed's preferred inflation metric is expected to eventually cool off to 2.3% at the end of 2022 and 2.1% at the end of 2023.\nLikewise, core consumer prices are expected to remain in the mid-5% range for \"much of the winter,\" before easing to 4% next summer and 3.2% at the end of 2022, Goldman Sachs said.\nThat's well above the Fed's 2% goal and may keep anxiety about the economy high.\nAs Powell said during his press conference, there remains vast uncertainty over the inflation outlook. No one can say for certain when prices will get back to normal.\n\"The risks to our forecast are probably tilted to the upside,\" Goldman Sachs acknowledged.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":898838232,"gmtCreate":1628483040826,"gmtModify":1633746795105,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898838232","repostId":"1136322726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":873266146,"gmtCreate":1636949215105,"gmtModify":1636949215201,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873266146","repostId":"2183536049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882823874,"gmtCreate":1631676026198,"gmtModify":1631890691599,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882823874","repostId":"1148341685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148341685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631660884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148341685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>美国股市因对复苏和企业增税的担忧而收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148341685","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约-华尔街周二下跌，原因是经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性越来越大，抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，尽管通胀有缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>整个交易日乐观情绪消退，扭转了劳工部消费者价格指数报告发布后最初的涨势。美国三大股指均收于负值，提醒人们9月份对于股市来说是历史上艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月迄今为止，标普500已下跌近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示：“市场有可能只是准备好经历一次迟来的调整。”“从季节性来看，9月往往是基金经理的粉饰期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现导致人们对从全球健康危机中复苏的看跌情绪增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview Asset Management投资组合经理保罗·诺尔特(Paul Nolte)表示：“我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。”“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这与德尔塔变异毒株的上升同时发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份读数低于市场普遍预期，这一减速支持了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的说法，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对美联储将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率因数据而下跌，这给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐转向增长，而牺牲了价值。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）的3.5万亿美元预算计划逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的公司税上调（如果民主党获胜，将从21%上调至26.5%）即将实现。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌292.06点，或0.84%，报34577.57点；标普500跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌67.82点，跌幅0.45%，至15037.76点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块全部收红，能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了iPhone 13，并为其iPad和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为的更严格审查。其股价收盘下跌1.0%，对标普500和纳斯达克拖累最大。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>TurboTax制造商Intuit Inc宣布将以120亿美元收购数字营销公司Mailchimp后，该公司股价上涨1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司CureVac取消其实验性COVID-19疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.25比1；在纳斯达克，2.40比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为100.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为93.8亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>美国股市因对复苏和企业增税的担忧而收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约-华尔街周二下跌，原因是经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性越来越大，抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，尽管通胀有缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>整个交易日乐观情绪消退，扭转了劳工部消费者价格指数报告发布后最初的涨势。美国三大股指均收于负值，提醒人们9月份对于股市来说是历史上艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月迄今为止，标普500已下跌近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示：“市场有可能只是准备好经历一次迟来的调整。”“从季节性来看，9月往往是基金经理的粉饰期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现导致人们对从全球健康危机中复苏的看跌情绪增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview Asset Management投资组合经理保罗·诺尔特(Paul Nolte)表示：“我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。”“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这与德尔塔变异毒株的上升同时发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份读数低于市场普遍预期，这一减速支持了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的说法，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对美联储将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率因数据而下跌，这给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐转向增长，而牺牲了价值。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）的3.5万亿美元预算计划逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的公司税上调（如果民主党获胜，将从21%上调至26.5%）即将实现。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌292.06点，或0.84%，报34577.57点；标普500跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌67.82点，跌幅0.45%，至15037.76点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块全部收红，能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了iPhone 13，并为其iPad和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为的更严格审查。其股价收盘下跌1.0%，对标普500和纳斯达克拖累最大。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>TurboTax制造商Intuit Inc宣布将以120亿美元收购数字营销公司Mailchimp后，该公司股价上涨1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司CureVac取消其实验性COVID-19疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.25比1；在纳斯达克，2.40比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为100.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为93.8亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148341685","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.\nOptimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.\nSo far this month the S&P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.\n“There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”\nThe advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.\n“We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”\nThe CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.\nU.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]\nThe long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.\nAll 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.\nApple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.\nIntuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.\nCureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892816915,"gmtCreate":1628647695637,"gmtModify":1633745404275,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892816915","repostId":"1195651017","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195651017","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628638405,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195651017?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 07:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines After Hours US Market on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场盘后顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195651017","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures were flat during overnight trading on Tuesday, after the Dow and S&P 500 cl","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures were flat during overnight trading on Tuesday, after the Dow and S&amp;P 500 closed at&nbsp;record highs&nbsp;following the Senate passing the$1 trillion infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周二隔夜交易中持平，此前道指和标普500在参议院通过1万亿美元基础设施法案后收于历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Futures contracts tied to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">DJIA</a> were slightly higher. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a> futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.</p><p><blockquote>期货合约与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">道琼斯</a>略高。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a>期货、纳斯达克100期货持平。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:30&nbsp;p.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.04%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 2.50 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 8.25 points, or 0.05%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb78d3b983aa4d779cf3b1bdc234bd42\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>晚上七点半。ET，道指e-minis下跌14点，跌幅0.04%，标普500 e-minis下跌2.50点，跌幅0.06%，纳斯达克100 e-minis下跌8.25点，跌幅0.05%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘后涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WW\">Weight Watchers International Inc</a>&nbsp;23.2% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.12, which may not compare to the analyst estimate of $0.65. Revenue for the quarter came in at $311 million versus the consensus estimate of $337.1 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WW\">慧俪轻体国际公司</a>23.降低2%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.12美元，可能无法与分析师预期的0.65美元相比。该季度营收为3.11亿美元，而市场普遍预期为3.371亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">Upstart Holdings, Inc.</a> 17.9% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.62, $0.37 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25. Revenue for the quarter came in at $194 million versus the consensus estimate of $157.76 million. Upstart Holdings sees Q3 2021 revenue of $205-215 million, versus the consensus of $161.6 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">新贵控股公司。</a>高17.9%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.62美元，比分析师预期的0.25美元高出0.37美元。该季度营收为1.94亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.5776亿美元。Upstart Holdings预计2021年第三季度收入为2.05-2.15亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.616亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONTF\">ON24, Inc.</a> 14.9% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.04, $0.04 better than the analyst estimate of $0.00. Revenue for the quarter came in at $52.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $51.03 million. ON24, Inc. sees Q3 2021 EPS of ($0.09)-($0.07), versus the consensus of ($0.05). ON24, Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $47.5-48.5 million, versus the consensus of $51.2 million. ON24, Inc. sees FY2021 EPS of ($0.13)-($0.06), versus the consensus of ($0.04). ON24, Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $201.2-204.2 million, versus the consensus of $209.2 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONTF\">ON24公司。</a>下降14.9%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.04美元，比分析师预期的0.00美元好0.04美元。该季度营收为5210万美元，而市场普遍预期为5103万美元。ON24，Inc.预计2021年第三季度每股收益为（0.09美元）-（0.07美元），而市场普遍预期为（0.05美元）。ON24，Inc.预计2021年第三季度收入为4750-4850万美元，而市场普遍预期为5120万美元。ON24，Inc.预计2021财年每股收益为（0.13美元）-（0.06美元），而市场普遍预期为（0.04美元）。ON24，Inc.预计2021财年收入为2.012亿至2.042亿美元，而市场普遍预期为2.092亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPRO\">Open Lending Corporation</a> 18.2% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.60, $0.43 better than the analyst estimate of $0.17. Revenue for the quarter came in at $61.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $48.98 million. Open Lending Corp. sees FY2021 revenue of $184-234 million, versus the consensus of $216 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPRO\">开放借贷公司</a>高18.2%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.60美元，比分析师预期的0.17美元好0.43美元。该季度营收为6110万美元，而市场普遍预期为4898万美元。Open Lending Corp.预计2021财年收入为1.84-2.34亿美元，而市场普遍预期为2.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">fuboTV Inc.</a> 12.1% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of ($0.38), $0.12 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.50). Revenue for the quarter came in at $130.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $118.88 million. fuboTV Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $140-144 million, versus the consensus of $126.9 million. fuboTV Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $560-570 million, versus the consensus of $531.7 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">富波电视公司。</a>高12.1%；报告第二季度每股收益为（0.38美元），比分析师预期的（0.50美元）高出0.12美元。该季度营收为1.309亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.1888亿美元。fuboTV Inc.预计2021年第三季度收入为140-1.44亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.269亿美元。fuboTV Inc.预计2021财年收入为5.60-5.7亿美元，而市场普遍预期为5.317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.</a> 7.4% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.44, $0.13 better than the analyst estimate of $0.31. Revenue for the quarter came in at $217.8 million versus the consensus estimate of $192.29 million. Maravai LifeSciences sees FY2021 revenue of $745-770 million, versus the consensus of $709.65 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">马拉维生命科学控股公司。</a>高7.4%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.44美元，比分析师预期的0.31美元高出0.13美元。该季度营收为2.178亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.9229亿美元。Maravai LifeSciences预计2021财年收入为7.45-7.7亿美元，而市场普遍预期为7.0965亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDUP\">ThredUp Inc.</a> 7.3% HIGHER; Another record-setting quarter with 27% year-over-year revenue growth</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDUP\">ThredUp公司。</a>高7.3%；又一个创纪录的季度收入同比增长27%</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTES\">Gates Industrial Corp PLC</a> 6.2% LOWER; announced today that certain selling stockholders affiliated with The Blackstone Group Inc. have commenced a secondary offering of 25,000,000 of Gates' ordinary shares. In connection with the offering, the selling stockholders intend to grant to the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 3,750,000 additional ordinary shares.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTES\">盖茨工业公司</a>下降6.2%；今天宣布，隶属于黑石集团公司的某些售股股东已开始二次发行25,000,000股盖茨普通股。就此次发行而言，售股股东打算向承销商授予30天的选择权，以购买最多3,750,000股额外普通股。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKIN\">The Beauty Health Corp.</a> 5.3% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of ($1.52), versus ($0.30) reported last year. Revenue for the quarter came in at $66.5 million, versus $14.1 million reported last year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKIN\">美容健康公司。</a>高5.3%；报告第二季度每股收益为（1.52美元），而去年报告为（0.30美元）。该季度收入为6650万美元，而去年为1410万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCFE\">McAfee Corp.</a> 3.8% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.21, $0.03 better than the analyst estimate of $0.18. Revenue for the quarter came in at $467 million versus the consensus estimate of $433.99 million. McAfee Corp. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $461-467 million, versus the consensus of $442.8 million. McAfee Corp. sees FY2021 revenue of $1.84-1.85 billion, versus the consensus of $1.79 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCFE\">迈克菲公司。</a>高3.8%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.21美元，比分析师预期的0.18美元高出0.03美元。该季度营收为4.67亿美元，而市场普遍预期为4.3399亿美元。McAfee Corp.预计2021年第三季度收入为4.61-4.67亿美元，而市场普遍预期为4.428亿美元。McAfee Corp.预计2021财年营收为18.4-18.5亿美元，而市场普遍预期为17.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OLO\">Olo Inc.</a> 3.7% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.03, $0.02 better than the analyst estimate of $0.01. Revenue for the quarter came in at $35.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $34.03 million. Olo Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $36-36.5 million, versus the consensus of $34.65 million. Olo Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $144.7-145.7 million, versus the consensus of $140.78 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OLO\">奥洛公司。</a>下降3.7%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.03美元，比分析师预期的0.01美元好0.02美元。该季度营收为3590万美元，而市场普遍预期为3403万美元。Olo Inc.预计2021年第三季度收入为36-3650万美元，而市场普遍预期为3465万美元。Olo Inc.预计2021财年收入为1.447亿至1.457亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.4078亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a> 1.9% HIGHER;&nbsp;Morgan Stanley&nbsp;upgraded from Equalweight to Overweight with a price target of $13.00 (from $14.80).</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">陆金所</a>高1.9%；大摩将评级从等权重上调至跑赢大盘，目标价为13.00美元（原14.80美元）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a> 0.7% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $6.42, $4.18 better than the analyst estimate of $2.24. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.23 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.77 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>高0.7%；报告第二季度每股收益为6.42美元，比分析师预期的2.24美元高出4.18美元。该季度营收为22.3亿美元，而市场普遍预期为17.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines After Hours US Market on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场盘后顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines After Hours US Market on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场盘后顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-11 07:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures were flat during overnight trading on Tuesday, after the Dow and S&amp;P 500 closed at&nbsp;record highs&nbsp;following the Senate passing the$1 trillion infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周二隔夜交易中持平，此前道指和标普500在参议院通过1万亿美元基础设施法案后收于历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Futures contracts tied to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">DJIA</a> were slightly higher. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a> futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.</p><p><blockquote>期货合约与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">道琼斯</a>略高。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a>期货、纳斯达克100期货持平。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:30&nbsp;p.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.04%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 2.50 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 8.25 points, or 0.05%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb78d3b983aa4d779cf3b1bdc234bd42\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>晚上七点半。ET，道指e-minis下跌14点，跌幅0.04%，标普500 e-minis下跌2.50点，跌幅0.06%，纳斯达克100 e-minis下跌8.25点，跌幅0.05%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘后涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WW\">Weight Watchers International Inc</a>&nbsp;23.2% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.12, which may not compare to the analyst estimate of $0.65. Revenue for the quarter came in at $311 million versus the consensus estimate of $337.1 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WW\">慧俪轻体国际公司</a>23.降低2%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.12美元，可能无法与分析师预期的0.65美元相比。该季度营收为3.11亿美元，而市场普遍预期为3.371亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">Upstart Holdings, Inc.</a> 17.9% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.62, $0.37 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25. Revenue for the quarter came in at $194 million versus the consensus estimate of $157.76 million. Upstart Holdings sees Q3 2021 revenue of $205-215 million, versus the consensus of $161.6 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">新贵控股公司。</a>高17.9%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.62美元，比分析师预期的0.25美元高出0.37美元。该季度营收为1.94亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.5776亿美元。Upstart Holdings预计2021年第三季度收入为2.05-2.15亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.616亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONTF\">ON24, Inc.</a> 14.9% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.04, $0.04 better than the analyst estimate of $0.00. Revenue for the quarter came in at $52.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $51.03 million. ON24, Inc. sees Q3 2021 EPS of ($0.09)-($0.07), versus the consensus of ($0.05). ON24, Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $47.5-48.5 million, versus the consensus of $51.2 million. ON24, Inc. sees FY2021 EPS of ($0.13)-($0.06), versus the consensus of ($0.04). ON24, Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $201.2-204.2 million, versus the consensus of $209.2 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONTF\">ON24公司。</a>下降14.9%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.04美元，比分析师预期的0.00美元好0.04美元。该季度营收为5210万美元，而市场普遍预期为5103万美元。ON24，Inc.预计2021年第三季度每股收益为（0.09美元）-（0.07美元），而市场普遍预期为（0.05美元）。ON24，Inc.预计2021年第三季度收入为4750-4850万美元，而市场普遍预期为5120万美元。ON24，Inc.预计2021财年每股收益为（0.13美元）-（0.06美元），而市场普遍预期为（0.04美元）。ON24，Inc.预计2021财年收入为2.012亿至2.042亿美元，而市场普遍预期为2.092亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPRO\">Open Lending Corporation</a> 18.2% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.60, $0.43 better than the analyst estimate of $0.17. Revenue for the quarter came in at $61.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $48.98 million. Open Lending Corp. sees FY2021 revenue of $184-234 million, versus the consensus of $216 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPRO\">开放借贷公司</a>高18.2%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.60美元，比分析师预期的0.17美元好0.43美元。该季度营收为6110万美元，而市场普遍预期为4898万美元。Open Lending Corp.预计2021财年收入为1.84-2.34亿美元，而市场普遍预期为2.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">fuboTV Inc.</a> 12.1% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of ($0.38), $0.12 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.50). Revenue for the quarter came in at $130.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $118.88 million. fuboTV Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $140-144 million, versus the consensus of $126.9 million. fuboTV Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $560-570 million, versus the consensus of $531.7 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">富波电视公司。</a>高12.1%；报告第二季度每股收益为（0.38美元），比分析师预期的（0.50美元）高出0.12美元。该季度营收为1.309亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.1888亿美元。fuboTV Inc.预计2021年第三季度收入为140-1.44亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.269亿美元。fuboTV Inc.预计2021财年收入为5.60-5.7亿美元，而市场普遍预期为5.317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.</a> 7.4% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.44, $0.13 better than the analyst estimate of $0.31. Revenue for the quarter came in at $217.8 million versus the consensus estimate of $192.29 million. Maravai LifeSciences sees FY2021 revenue of $745-770 million, versus the consensus of $709.65 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">马拉维生命科学控股公司。</a>高7.4%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.44美元，比分析师预期的0.31美元高出0.13美元。该季度营收为2.178亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.9229亿美元。Maravai LifeSciences预计2021财年收入为7.45-7.7亿美元，而市场普遍预期为7.0965亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDUP\">ThredUp Inc.</a> 7.3% HIGHER; Another record-setting quarter with 27% year-over-year revenue growth</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDUP\">ThredUp公司。</a>高7.3%；又一个创纪录的季度收入同比增长27%</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTES\">Gates Industrial Corp PLC</a> 6.2% LOWER; announced today that certain selling stockholders affiliated with The Blackstone Group Inc. have commenced a secondary offering of 25,000,000 of Gates' ordinary shares. In connection with the offering, the selling stockholders intend to grant to the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 3,750,000 additional ordinary shares.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTES\">盖茨工业公司</a>下降6.2%；今天宣布，隶属于黑石集团公司的某些售股股东已开始二次发行25,000,000股盖茨普通股。就此次发行而言，售股股东打算向承销商授予30天的选择权，以购买最多3,750,000股额外普通股。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKIN\">The Beauty Health Corp.</a> 5.3% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of ($1.52), versus ($0.30) reported last year. Revenue for the quarter came in at $66.5 million, versus $14.1 million reported last year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKIN\">美容健康公司。</a>高5.3%；报告第二季度每股收益为（1.52美元），而去年报告为（0.30美元）。该季度收入为6650万美元，而去年为1410万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCFE\">McAfee Corp.</a> 3.8% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.21, $0.03 better than the analyst estimate of $0.18. Revenue for the quarter came in at $467 million versus the consensus estimate of $433.99 million. McAfee Corp. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $461-467 million, versus the consensus of $442.8 million. McAfee Corp. sees FY2021 revenue of $1.84-1.85 billion, versus the consensus of $1.79 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCFE\">迈克菲公司。</a>高3.8%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.21美元，比分析师预期的0.18美元高出0.03美元。该季度营收为4.67亿美元，而市场普遍预期为4.3399亿美元。McAfee Corp.预计2021年第三季度收入为4.61-4.67亿美元，而市场普遍预期为4.428亿美元。McAfee Corp.预计2021财年营收为18.4-18.5亿美元，而市场普遍预期为17.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OLO\">Olo Inc.</a> 3.7% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.03, $0.02 better than the analyst estimate of $0.01. Revenue for the quarter came in at $35.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $34.03 million. Olo Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $36-36.5 million, versus the consensus of $34.65 million. Olo Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $144.7-145.7 million, versus the consensus of $140.78 million.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OLO\">奥洛公司。</a>下降3.7%；报告第二季度每股收益为0.03美元，比分析师预期的0.01美元好0.02美元。该季度营收为3590万美元，而市场普遍预期为3403万美元。Olo Inc.预计2021年第三季度收入为36-3650万美元，而市场普遍预期为3465万美元。Olo Inc.预计2021财年收入为1.447亿至1.457亿美元，而市场普遍预期为1.4078亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a> 1.9% HIGHER;&nbsp;Morgan Stanley&nbsp;upgraded from Equalweight to Overweight with a price target of $13.00 (from $14.80).</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">陆金所</a>高1.9%；大摩将评级从等权重上调至跑赢大盘，目标价为13.00美元（原14.80美元）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a> 0.7% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $6.42, $4.18 better than the analyst estimate of $2.24. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.23 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.77 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>高0.7%；报告第二季度每股收益为6.42美元，比分析师预期的2.24美元高出4.18美元。该季度营收为22.3亿美元，而市场普遍预期为17.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TDUP":"ThredUp Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SKIN":"The Beauty Health Corp.","WW":"WW International, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","OLO":"PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ET","GTES":"Gates Industrial Corp PLC","ONTF":"ON24, Inc.","MRVI":"Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","MCFE":"McAfee Corp.","LU":"陆金所","FUBO":"fuboTV Inc.","LPRO":"Open Lending Corporation",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195651017","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures were flat during overnight trading on Tuesday, after the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs following the Senate passing the$1 trillion infrastructure bill.\nFutures contracts tied to the DJIA were slightly higher. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.\nAt 7:30 p.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 2.50 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 8.25 points, or 0.05%.\nStocks making the biggest moves after hours:\nWeight Watchers International Inc 23.2% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.12, which may not compare to the analyst estimate of $0.65. Revenue for the quarter came in at $311 million versus the consensus estimate of $337.1 million.\nUpstart Holdings, Inc. 17.9% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.62, $0.37 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25. Revenue for the quarter came in at $194 million versus the consensus estimate of $157.76 million. Upstart Holdings sees Q3 2021 revenue of $205-215 million, versus the consensus of $161.6 million.\nON24, Inc. 14.9% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.04, $0.04 better than the analyst estimate of $0.00. Revenue for the quarter came in at $52.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $51.03 million. ON24, Inc. sees Q3 2021 EPS of ($0.09)-($0.07), versus the consensus of ($0.05). ON24, Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $47.5-48.5 million, versus the consensus of $51.2 million. ON24, Inc. sees FY2021 EPS of ($0.13)-($0.06), versus the consensus of ($0.04). ON24, Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $201.2-204.2 million, versus the consensus of $209.2 million.\nOpen Lending Corporation 18.2% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.60, $0.43 better than the analyst estimate of $0.17. Revenue for the quarter came in at $61.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $48.98 million. Open Lending Corp. sees FY2021 revenue of $184-234 million, versus the consensus of $216 million.\nfuboTV Inc. 12.1% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of ($0.38), $0.12 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.50). Revenue for the quarter came in at $130.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $118.88 million. fuboTV Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $140-144 million, versus the consensus of $126.9 million. fuboTV Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $560-570 million, versus the consensus of $531.7 million.\nMaravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. 7.4% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.44, $0.13 better than the analyst estimate of $0.31. Revenue for the quarter came in at $217.8 million versus the consensus estimate of $192.29 million. Maravai LifeSciences sees FY2021 revenue of $745-770 million, versus the consensus of $709.65 million.\nThredUp Inc. 7.3% HIGHER; Another record-setting quarter with 27% year-over-year revenue growth\nGates Industrial Corp PLC 6.2% LOWER; announced today that certain selling stockholders affiliated with The Blackstone Group Inc. have commenced a secondary offering of 25,000,000 of Gates' ordinary shares. In connection with the offering, the selling stockholders intend to grant to the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 3,750,000 additional ordinary shares.\nThe Beauty Health Corp. 5.3% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of ($1.52), versus ($0.30) reported last year. Revenue for the quarter came in at $66.5 million, versus $14.1 million reported last year.\nMcAfee Corp. 3.8% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.21, $0.03 better than the analyst estimate of $0.18. Revenue for the quarter came in at $467 million versus the consensus estimate of $433.99 million. McAfee Corp. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $461-467 million, versus the consensus of $442.8 million. McAfee Corp. sees FY2021 revenue of $1.84-1.85 billion, versus the consensus of $1.79 billion.\nOlo Inc. 3.7% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.03, $0.02 better than the analyst estimate of $0.01. Revenue for the quarter came in at $35.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $34.03 million. Olo Inc. sees Q3 2021 revenue of $36-36.5 million, versus the consensus of $34.65 million. Olo Inc. sees FY2021 revenue of $144.7-145.7 million, versus the consensus of $140.78 million.\nLufax 1.9% HIGHER; Morgan Stanley upgraded from Equalweight to Overweight with a price target of $13.00 (from $14.80).\nCoinbase Global, Inc. 0.7% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $6.42, $4.18 better than the analyst estimate of $2.24. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.23 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.77 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"ONTF":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"LPRO":0.9,"MRVI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SKIN":0.9,"TDUP":0.9,"FUBO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NDX":0.9,"OLO":0.9,"UPST":0.9,"WW":0.9,"MCFE":0.9,"GTES":0.9,"LU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802498655,"gmtCreate":1627793241077,"gmtModify":1633756312741,"author":{"id":"3567423611057591","authorId":"3567423611057591","name":"mwlnairda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98729f78c147e999683a15cff1ffbc62","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567423611057591","idStr":"3567423611057591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802498655","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}