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Constancekcl
2021-08-26
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Constancekcl
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Constancekcl
2021-09-13
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猫🐱一点都不争气🙄🙄
Constancekcl
2021-06-12
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Constancekcl
2021-09-17
$美德向邦医疗(546.SI)$
走了个偏体凌伤😫
Constancekcl
2021-08-17
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Constancekcl
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Constancekcl
2021-09-27
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2021-09-09
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LIMITED(1F3.SI)$拜托你醒醒好吗？😩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839477332","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151146327,"gmtCreate":1625068994369,"gmtModify":1631889068089,"author":{"id":"3567685395510817","authorId":"3567685395510817","name":"Constancekcl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623e651db7a1de3baaf331fe7c9987c8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567685395510817","authorIdStr":"3567685395510817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈哈哈….幸运之神眷顾好好笑😆","listText":"哈哈哈哈哈….幸运之神眷顾好好笑😆","text":"哈哈哈哈哈….幸运之神眷顾好好笑😆","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f32b5defe853c5e01f35e33bf856100","width":"750","height":"1238"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151146327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182566891,"gmtCreate":1623589860513,"gmtModify":1631889068096,"author":{"id":"3567685395510817","authorId":"3567685395510817","name":"Constancekcl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623e651db7a1de3baaf331fe7c9987c8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567685395510817","authorIdStr":"3567685395510817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😎😎","listText":"😎😎","text":"😎😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182566891","repostId":"1186135122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186135122","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623465545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186135122?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 10:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美元购买力或永久性下跌，跌速为1982年以来最快","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186135122","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。","content":"<p>作者：林菁扬</p>\n<p>美国通胀飙升之际，分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。</p>\n<p>美国财经网站Wolf Street创始人Wolf Richter分析美国劳工部数据称，随着美国5月CPI同比爆发式增长5%，美元购买力（对包括劳动力在内，一切以美元计价的消费品）5 月份下降了0.8%，<b>过去三个月则大幅下降2.4%，创下自1982年以来最大三个月跌幅。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f96d36e43e2873bf2430c88a4757a2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>按年率计算，消除同比基数效应影响，三个月购买力下降了9.5%。</p>\n<p><b>美元购买力丧失主要体现在汽车和房屋市场。</b></p>\n<p>5月，耐用品价格同比暴涨10.3%，尤其二手车增幅达到30%，新车价格也同比上涨3.3%，为2012年来最大涨幅。据JD Power数据，5月份新车零售“平均交易价格”（ATP）跃升至38255美元，而ATP在过去七年已增长28%，去年6月来更是增速大幅提升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0bbac1844aabeda7246d41b54e9a61\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>约占整体CPI三分之一的住房成本（租金+房屋所有成本）也显著提升。其中，租金部分今年以来一直在以恒定0.2%的幅度持续上涨，过去12个月上涨了2.2%；业主“等价租金”也持续上升趋势。</p>\n<p>5月，Case-Shiller房价指数同比上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最强劲增长（紫色线）。这是一种更为现实的房价通胀衡量方法，衡量同一套房屋价格随时间的变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b936def692183aceb0058e10673448dc\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wolf Richter认为，“当前购买力的下跌是永久性的，而未来购买力还将出现永久性的暴跌”，<b>即便明年5月CPI由同比5%降至4%，这部分丧失的购买力也不再具有恢复的可能。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 唯一可能“暂时”事件是，物价水平一小段时间内的下跌。这在我一生中只发生过几个季度，例如2008年的最后几个月（如上图所示）。所以我（对长期购买力反弹）不抱希望。\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美元购买力或永久性下跌，跌速为1982年以来最快</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元购买力或永久性下跌，跌速为1982年以来最快\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-12 10:39 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：林菁扬\n美国通胀飙升之际，分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。\n美国财经网站Wolf Street创始人Wolf Richter分析美国劳工部数据称，随着美国5月CPI同比爆发式增长5%，美元购买力（对包括劳动力在内，一切以美元计价的消费品）5 月份下降了0.8%，过去三个月则大幅下降2.4%，创下自1982年以来最大三个月跌幅。\n\n按年率计算，消除同比基数效应...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48dfa66be8caa6517cb956851a00eed","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186135122","content_text":"作者：林菁扬\n美国通胀飙升之际，分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。\n美国财经网站Wolf Street创始人Wolf Richter分析美国劳工部数据称，随着美国5月CPI同比爆发式增长5%，美元购买力（对包括劳动力在内，一切以美元计价的消费品）5 月份下降了0.8%，过去三个月则大幅下降2.4%，创下自1982年以来最大三个月跌幅。\n\n按年率计算，消除同比基数效应影响，三个月购买力下降了9.5%。\n美元购买力丧失主要体现在汽车和房屋市场。\n5月，耐用品价格同比暴涨10.3%，尤其二手车增幅达到30%，新车价格也同比上涨3.3%，为2012年来最大涨幅。据JD Power数据，5月份新车零售“平均交易价格”（ATP）跃升至38255美元，而ATP在过去七年已增长28%，去年6月来更是增速大幅提升。\n\n约占整体CPI三分之一的住房成本（租金+房屋所有成本）也显著提升。其中，租金部分今年以来一直在以恒定0.2%的幅度持续上涨，过去12个月上涨了2.2%；业主“等价租金”也持续上升趋势。\n5月，Case-Shiller房价指数同比上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最强劲增长（紫色线）。这是一种更为现实的房价通胀衡量方法，衡量同一套房屋价格随时间的变化。\n\nWolf Richter认为，“当前购买力的下跌是永久性的，而未来购买力还将出现永久性的暴跌”，即便明年5月CPI由同比5%降至4%，这部分丧失的购买力也不再具有恢复的可能。\n\n 唯一可能“暂时”事件是，物价水平一小段时间内的下跌。这在我一生中只发生过几个季度，例如2008年的最后几个月（如上图所示）。所以我（对长期购买力反弹）不抱希望。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UUP":0.9,"USDindexmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182568706,"gmtCreate":1623589821305,"gmtModify":1631889068102,"author":{"id":"3567685395510817","authorId":"3567685395510817","name":"Constancekcl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623e651db7a1de3baaf331fe7c9987c8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567685395510817","authorIdStr":"3567685395510817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182568706","repostId":"1101413680","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101413680","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623465999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101413680?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 10:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"最简单的方法就最好：再读格雷厄姆的12条投资原则","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101413680","media":"高毅资产管理","summary":"人们总是喜欢参考他人的意见，而个人意见往往都是错的。","content":"<p>作为20世纪最伟大的投资者之一，本杰明·格雷厄姆一直被认为是“价值投资之父”，作为巴菲特的“精神导师”，他对巴菲特的投资起到了至关重要的作用。在《跟格雷厄姆学价值投资》一书中，作者珍妮特·洛尔重点分析了本杰明·格雷厄姆的价值投资理论，并着重阐述稳妥的投资方法所包含的基本内容，教会读者理性投资。多年来，格雷厄姆的价值投资理论被市场多次证明是正确和明智的，无论时代多么进步，市场怎样变化，格雷厄姆的理论永远都是理性投资的基石。本文总结了12条格雷厄姆的投资原则，希望对大家有所裨益。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0463e197a660e59f236183e25c25c6cf\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"1448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>01保持端正的态度</b></p>\n<p>价值投资者的首要目标是保护本金，避免损失。这一简单的逻辑告诫我们，为确保安全性可以牺牲一定的收益性，同时还要控制投资成本。在投资收益率比不上隔壁邻居的收益率时，不必怨声载道，让失望和不满占据你的心灵，说不定你的邻居是在冒险。只要还持有本金，收益率稳步、合理地增长，你的资产就可以不断增长。如果失去了本金，不管是储蓄还是投资，你都丧失了一切的根本。空空如也的投资账户，无论如何也实现不了增长。</p>\n<p><b>02不要理会预测</b></p>\n<p>对于经济，每个人都有自己的观点，很多人都喜欢向别人推荐自己认为的热门股票。对股市的讨论和争论到了白热化的程度。奇怪的是，面对股市上扬，预言家们毫无例外地相信这种情况会持续；而面对股市下挫，大家都觉得股市的重整旗鼓遥遥无期。</p>\n<p>“我根本不会去估计和预测。”巴菲特说，“那往往会让我们对已经清晰的事实产生错觉。你越是小心翼翼，就越是惶惶不可终日。我们不进行任何预测，但我们很关注并深入研究企业的历史业绩记录。如果企业的业绩记录不佳，但发展前景很可观，这就是机会。”</p>\n<p>查尔斯·布兰帝认为对投资进行预测会得不偿失，特别是那些被投资公司的分析员和媒体所鼓吹的预测更有危害性。“人们出于对某种结果的兴趣把所有的信息汇集起来，这本身就带有一定下意识的主观性，最后得出的所谓的准确结论恰恰是致命弱点。他们用马克·吐温的名言提醒我：‘矿井无非是一群骗子拥有土地上的一个洞而已。’对美国的预测常常被证实为谣言，虽然大家不一定是故意制造谣言，但糟糕的是，做出预言的人往往很相信自己。”</p>\n<p>大家都持有自己的观点，但不意味着你不必从多个角度去审视潜在的投资机会。投资或建立股票组合都取决于企业过去和将来的业绩，但对将来的预测，经验丰富的格雷厄姆也认为只可能是一个“大概的数字”，要么就是胡编乱造。他还说，在分析时要留有一定的余地，确保自己的安全边际，这样夜晚也能高枕无忧。</p>\n<p><b>03坚持实事求是</b></p>\n<p>威廉·欧奈尔屡次提醒我们，投资时不必人云亦云。“人们总是喜欢参考他人的意见，而个人意见往往都是错的。”虽然强势和固有的意见会影响我们对现实的看法，但巴菲特和其他投资大师都告诉我们，基于训练、经验和信息的直觉判断才是最强大的投资工具。当然，所谓的直觉必须来自丰富的知识与合理的判断。</p>\n<p><b>04不一致的投资机会</b></p>\n<p>戴维·伊本指出，大家一拥而上就充分说明市场已经过热了。“一个行业在指数中的比重超过30%，说明这个行业受到了投资者的普遍欢迎，如1999 年的科技行业和金融业。这也说明了大量资本进入这些行业，供给过度必然导致收益率下降。如果你还在这个行业，赶紧选择离开。”</p>\n<p>他偏爱那些和市场情况节拍不合的公司，它们经营稳健，具有竞争优势与合理的利润率。意见相反的人会选择大家都不喜爱的优质公司。这些公司在市场上并不起眼，其实际价值常被扭曲，价格会高于或低于内在价值。</p>\n<p>当经济陷入泥潭时，拖拉机和农业用具生产商约翰以2009 年的净收益成功打破了所有分析家的预言。同一时期标准普尔500 指数下降了0.3%，而公司股价出人意料地上涨了5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee469008f4476be259693d20fd6c166\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>05远离债务</b></p>\n<p>“聪明的投资者走向破产的唯一途径就是举债。”巴菲特说，“市场上行时，举债投资让投资者心花怒放，而当市场下行时，投资者一筹莫展。聪明的投资者不会通过举债来支持投资。当市场处于上升期时，投资者会被胜利冲昏头脑而使举债行为失控。大家都那么做的时候，请小心保护好自己。”紧紧跟随负债水平较低、现金流充裕的公司，善用自己的投资资金。</p>\n<p>另外，巴菲特还补充说，千万不要把自己的住房当作投资资产，而用它作为购买游艇、投资不动产或开设公司的资金来源。</p>\n<p>“2009 年前后发生的房地产风暴给购房人、贷款人、经纪人和政府好好上了一课，而这将确保将来市场的稳定。购房人应该老老实实地支付不少于10% 的首付款，每月的贷款应该在其承受范围之内。申请贷款时，购房人的收入水平和情况应该被好好核实。”</p>\n<p><b>06迎接市场的波动</b></p>\n<p>大多数时候，股票市场的波动不过是正常的短期变动而已。戴维·伊本说，股市的波动从格雷厄姆时代起就没有停止过。“我们都知道市场具有一定的周期性，围绕企业的实际价值上下波动。”</p>\n<p>“我喜欢市场发生变动。”伊本说，“当市场变动与基本面所反映的实际情况相左时，机会也会涌现出来。回想一下1999 年的小盘股、1991 年的垃圾债券和1982 年的大盘股和长期债券，无一不印证了这一事实。”</p>\n<p>伊本不是唯一持有此观点的人。查尔斯·布兰帝也看到了2007—2008 年市场崩溃所带来的机会。“我们很清楚，过去的业绩不能保证将来的业绩，但至少具有一定的启发性。”布兰帝说，“我们认为，当人们回顾这段时期时，他们一定会相信是投资的黄金时期。”布兰帝接着解释说，市场遭遇危机后，股价都保持在较低水平，优质的投资机会正等着你去发现并捡起。</p>\n<p><b>07倾听“船员”建议</b></p>\n<p>尽管价值投资者会积极地迎接市场波动，不会精心测算投资的最佳时机，但这本书中所提到的各种投资工具还是可以充当大家投资时的风向标。它们会在大海起风浪时给你警示。过热的市场有时需要很长时间才会恢复正常，但这一天迟早会来。地心引力不就是使我们下落容易、上升困难吗？所有的投资者，包括交易所交易基金和共同基金的投资者都应该密切关注市场的发展情况，并相应地采取必要的调整措施。</p>\n<p>有些关于船的道理，也同样适用于投资领域。比如“水涨船高”，市场的涨潮必然会推高股价，但市场的退潮也会毫不留情地让没有及时进入安全地带的船只搁浅。又比如“逆风而上”，船员会根据风向不断地调整船帆，无论风向如何，都可以到达目的地。</p>\n<p>有两种风向是要小心的：使市场被高估的跟风和个股进入高价位的飓风。所以，我们该做的是，建造坚固的船，在市场的海洋里巧妙驾驶它，获知风暴来临时，扬帆驶入更安全的海港。</p>\n<p>真实的例子就是巴菲特在1969 年股市过热时的所作所为。他向自己的客户坦言，市场上已找不出物美价廉的股票，随后他关闭了自己的公司。</p>\n<p><b>08 在市场过热时保持镇定</b></p>\n<p>塞思·卡拉曼主张投资者必须居安思危，提前防范突发事件。</p>\n<p>简而言之，最佳的投资策略就是买股不买股市，投资决策都基于个股的基本面分析，再加上识别股市过热的判断力，足以保证你的投资进入安全地带。股市过热会出现如下的迹象：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>股价创历史新高。</p></li>\n <li><p>很少分红，即便分红也是历史最低水平，甚至低于债券市场收益。</p></li>\n <li><p>新股扎堆发行。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>在市场狂热时，投资者好像都会前赴后继地重复以前的错误。</p>\n<p>“这些都是古老的教训了。”巴菲特若有所思地说，“它们不是什么新鲜事儿，大家都一清二楚，但高兴起来马上就忘得一干二净。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14d3e5a94dc48faf520a1d1e9c819c2c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>09多样化投资</b></p>\n<p>如果可以预测未来，投资不用多样化。如果所有的资产同升同降，多样化也是多余的。多样化要求我们建立广泛的资产基础，以取得投资的增长和安全性。</p>\n<p>“我想强调的是，每位投资者都应该持有一定量的黄金。”戴维·伊本再一次说道，“不动产、股票和硬通资产都应在组合中占有一席之地。不动产应该集中于全球范围内没有泡沫的市场，而股票则应该在全球范围进行多样化。”</p>\n<p><b>10通货膨胀不会消失</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀是我们无形和隐蔽的敌人。正是它，摧毁经济，重伤企业，吞噬我们个人的财富和快乐。</p>\n<p>“通货膨胀将一直伴随着你。”巴菲特说，“从长期来看，很小的通货膨胀都具有强大的杀伤力。”他认为防御通货膨胀的最佳选择是维持自己的盈利能力。“要么，就选择资本要求不高的企业，持有它的股票，就可以分享美国经济的收益水平。”</p>\n<p><b>11坦然面对投资中的失误</b></p>\n<p>是人都会犯错，投资时也不例外。提前预防，犯错后不必自责，继续前进。在2009 年写给股东的信中，巴菲特承认自己大量买入康菲石油股票是重大失误。“我根本没有料到下半年的能源价格暴跌。”他勇敢地走到大家前面，承认自己失误的严重性，“买入的错误时机让伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司为此付出了数百亿美元。”很多年来，巴菲特事后承认自己犯过的很多错误。有时，他会开玩笑说自己应该加入AA 公司，才能改掉不断投资航空业的习惯。但他出类拔萃的投资选择抵消了失误所带来的影响，使伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司成为成功的典范。</p>\n<p><b>12 享受投资的过程</b></p>\n<p>投资充满乐趣和挑战，也给投资者带来愉悦的感受。为什么不把投资看作我们在这精彩世界里进行的一次冒险呢！</p>","source":"lsy1594783014144","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>最简单的方法就最好：再读格雷厄姆的12条投资原则</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n最简单的方法就最好：再读格雷厄姆的12条投资原则\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 10:46 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MjE4OTE4MQ==&mid=2650452428&idx=1&sn=8427d2dd01e7deccebf1cce7cf3ed4da&chksm=87879fdeb0f016c86db2f2e2f185218410a5cd027a88672b0f64db5a1d1fb5f92069f97fb4a8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0611cQ1CUSm8Gh9P3OQG8I1W&sharer_sharetime=1623456137592&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&exportkey=AZhJ9s2LYDclcK6XjSCj4jA%3D&pass_ticket=Wz42Tzk7b4Ui458wQtN3RZcqhsmV6Z25%2BEWtbYC3kctcPziJQrlsD%2FT0oIjRYbFT&wx_header=0#rd><strong>高毅资产管理</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作为20世纪最伟大的投资者之一，本杰明·格雷厄姆一直被认为是“价值投资之父”，作为巴菲特的“精神导师”，他对巴菲特的投资起到了至关重要的作用。在《跟格雷厄姆学价值投资》一书中，作者珍妮特·洛尔重点分析了本杰明·格雷厄姆的价值投资理论，并着重阐述稳妥的投资方法所包含的基本内容，教会读者理性投资。多年来，格雷厄姆的价值投资理论被市场多次证明是正确和明智的，无论时代多么进步，市场怎样变化，格雷厄姆的理论...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MjE4OTE4MQ==&mid=2650452428&idx=1&sn=8427d2dd01e7deccebf1cce7cf3ed4da&chksm=87879fdeb0f016c86db2f2e2f185218410a5cd027a88672b0f64db5a1d1fb5f92069f97fb4a8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0611cQ1CUSm8Gh9P3OQG8I1W&sharer_sharetime=1623456137592&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&exportkey=AZhJ9s2LYDclcK6XjSCj4jA%3D&pass_ticket=Wz42Tzk7b4Ui458wQtN3RZcqhsmV6Z25%2BEWtbYC3kctcPziJQrlsD%2FT0oIjRYbFT&wx_header=0#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a4f2bf2e21d426fe3d9c3a21974424","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MjE4OTE4MQ==&mid=2650452428&idx=1&sn=8427d2dd01e7deccebf1cce7cf3ed4da&chksm=87879fdeb0f016c86db2f2e2f185218410a5cd027a88672b0f64db5a1d1fb5f92069f97fb4a8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0611cQ1CUSm8Gh9P3OQG8I1W&sharer_sharetime=1623456137592&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&exportkey=AZhJ9s2LYDclcK6XjSCj4jA%3D&pass_ticket=Wz42Tzk7b4Ui458wQtN3RZcqhsmV6Z25%2BEWtbYC3kctcPziJQrlsD%2FT0oIjRYbFT&wx_header=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101413680","content_text":"作为20世纪最伟大的投资者之一，本杰明·格雷厄姆一直被认为是“价值投资之父”，作为巴菲特的“精神导师”，他对巴菲特的投资起到了至关重要的作用。在《跟格雷厄姆学价值投资》一书中，作者珍妮特·洛尔重点分析了本杰明·格雷厄姆的价值投资理论，并着重阐述稳妥的投资方法所包含的基本内容，教会读者理性投资。多年来，格雷厄姆的价值投资理论被市场多次证明是正确和明智的，无论时代多么进步，市场怎样变化，格雷厄姆的理论永远都是理性投资的基石。本文总结了12条格雷厄姆的投资原则，希望对大家有所裨益。\n\n01保持端正的态度\n价值投资者的首要目标是保护本金，避免损失。这一简单的逻辑告诫我们，为确保安全性可以牺牲一定的收益性，同时还要控制投资成本。在投资收益率比不上隔壁邻居的收益率时，不必怨声载道，让失望和不满占据你的心灵，说不定你的邻居是在冒险。只要还持有本金，收益率稳步、合理地增长，你的资产就可以不断增长。如果失去了本金，不管是储蓄还是投资，你都丧失了一切的根本。空空如也的投资账户，无论如何也实现不了增长。\n02不要理会预测\n对于经济，每个人都有自己的观点，很多人都喜欢向别人推荐自己认为的热门股票。对股市的讨论和争论到了白热化的程度。奇怪的是，面对股市上扬，预言家们毫无例外地相信这种情况会持续；而面对股市下挫，大家都觉得股市的重整旗鼓遥遥无期。\n“我根本不会去估计和预测。”巴菲特说，“那往往会让我们对已经清晰的事实产生错觉。你越是小心翼翼，就越是惶惶不可终日。我们不进行任何预测，但我们很关注并深入研究企业的历史业绩记录。如果企业的业绩记录不佳，但发展前景很可观，这就是机会。”\n查尔斯·布兰帝认为对投资进行预测会得不偿失，特别是那些被投资公司的分析员和媒体所鼓吹的预测更有危害性。“人们出于对某种结果的兴趣把所有的信息汇集起来，这本身就带有一定下意识的主观性，最后得出的所谓的准确结论恰恰是致命弱点。他们用马克·吐温的名言提醒我：‘矿井无非是一群骗子拥有土地上的一个洞而已。’对美国的预测常常被证实为谣言，虽然大家不一定是故意制造谣言，但糟糕的是，做出预言的人往往很相信自己。”\n大家都持有自己的观点，但不意味着你不必从多个角度去审视潜在的投资机会。投资或建立股票组合都取决于企业过去和将来的业绩，但对将来的预测，经验丰富的格雷厄姆也认为只可能是一个“大概的数字”，要么就是胡编乱造。他还说，在分析时要留有一定的余地，确保自己的安全边际，这样夜晚也能高枕无忧。\n03坚持实事求是\n威廉·欧奈尔屡次提醒我们，投资时不必人云亦云。“人们总是喜欢参考他人的意见，而个人意见往往都是错的。”虽然强势和固有的意见会影响我们对现实的看法，但巴菲特和其他投资大师都告诉我们，基于训练、经验和信息的直觉判断才是最强大的投资工具。当然，所谓的直觉必须来自丰富的知识与合理的判断。\n04不一致的投资机会\n戴维·伊本指出，大家一拥而上就充分说明市场已经过热了。“一个行业在指数中的比重超过30%，说明这个行业受到了投资者的普遍欢迎，如1999 年的科技行业和金融业。这也说明了大量资本进入这些行业，供给过度必然导致收益率下降。如果你还在这个行业，赶紧选择离开。”\n他偏爱那些和市场情况节拍不合的公司，它们经营稳健，具有竞争优势与合理的利润率。意见相反的人会选择大家都不喜爱的优质公司。这些公司在市场上并不起眼，其实际价值常被扭曲，价格会高于或低于内在价值。\n当经济陷入泥潭时，拖拉机和农业用具生产商约翰以2009 年的净收益成功打破了所有分析家的预言。同一时期标准普尔500 指数下降了0.3%，而公司股价出人意料地上涨了5%。\n\n05远离债务\n“聪明的投资者走向破产的唯一途径就是举债。”巴菲特说，“市场上行时，举债投资让投资者心花怒放，而当市场下行时，投资者一筹莫展。聪明的投资者不会通过举债来支持投资。当市场处于上升期时，投资者会被胜利冲昏头脑而使举债行为失控。大家都那么做的时候，请小心保护好自己。”紧紧跟随负债水平较低、现金流充裕的公司，善用自己的投资资金。\n另外，巴菲特还补充说，千万不要把自己的住房当作投资资产，而用它作为购买游艇、投资不动产或开设公司的资金来源。\n“2009 年前后发生的房地产风暴给购房人、贷款人、经纪人和政府好好上了一课，而这将确保将来市场的稳定。购房人应该老老实实地支付不少于10% 的首付款，每月的贷款应该在其承受范围之内。申请贷款时，购房人的收入水平和情况应该被好好核实。”\n06迎接市场的波动\n大多数时候，股票市场的波动不过是正常的短期变动而已。戴维·伊本说，股市的波动从格雷厄姆时代起就没有停止过。“我们都知道市场具有一定的周期性，围绕企业的实际价值上下波动。”\n“我喜欢市场发生变动。”伊本说，“当市场变动与基本面所反映的实际情况相左时，机会也会涌现出来。回想一下1999 年的小盘股、1991 年的垃圾债券和1982 年的大盘股和长期债券，无一不印证了这一事实。”\n伊本不是唯一持有此观点的人。查尔斯·布兰帝也看到了2007—2008 年市场崩溃所带来的机会。“我们很清楚，过去的业绩不能保证将来的业绩，但至少具有一定的启发性。”布兰帝说，“我们认为，当人们回顾这段时期时，他们一定会相信是投资的黄金时期。”布兰帝接着解释说，市场遭遇危机后，股价都保持在较低水平，优质的投资机会正等着你去发现并捡起。\n07倾听“船员”建议\n尽管价值投资者会积极地迎接市场波动，不会精心测算投资的最佳时机，但这本书中所提到的各种投资工具还是可以充当大家投资时的风向标。它们会在大海起风浪时给你警示。过热的市场有时需要很长时间才会恢复正常，但这一天迟早会来。地心引力不就是使我们下落容易、上升困难吗？所有的投资者，包括交易所交易基金和共同基金的投资者都应该密切关注市场的发展情况，并相应地采取必要的调整措施。\n有些关于船的道理，也同样适用于投资领域。比如“水涨船高”，市场的涨潮必然会推高股价，但市场的退潮也会毫不留情地让没有及时进入安全地带的船只搁浅。又比如“逆风而上”，船员会根据风向不断地调整船帆，无论风向如何，都可以到达目的地。\n有两种风向是要小心的：使市场被高估的跟风和个股进入高价位的飓风。所以，我们该做的是，建造坚固的船，在市场的海洋里巧妙驾驶它，获知风暴来临时，扬帆驶入更安全的海港。\n真实的例子就是巴菲特在1969 年股市过热时的所作所为。他向自己的客户坦言，市场上已找不出物美价廉的股票，随后他关闭了自己的公司。\n08 在市场过热时保持镇定\n塞思·卡拉曼主张投资者必须居安思危，提前防范突发事件。\n简而言之，最佳的投资策略就是买股不买股市，投资决策都基于个股的基本面分析，再加上识别股市过热的判断力，足以保证你的投资进入安全地带。股市过热会出现如下的迹象：\n\n股价创历史新高。\n很少分红，即便分红也是历史最低水平，甚至低于债券市场收益。\n新股扎堆发行。\n\n在市场狂热时，投资者好像都会前赴后继地重复以前的错误。\n“这些都是古老的教训了。”巴菲特若有所思地说，“它们不是什么新鲜事儿，大家都一清二楚，但高兴起来马上就忘得一干二净。”\n\n09多样化投资\n如果可以预测未来，投资不用多样化。如果所有的资产同升同降，多样化也是多余的。多样化要求我们建立广泛的资产基础，以取得投资的增长和安全性。\n“我想强调的是，每位投资者都应该持有一定量的黄金。”戴维·伊本再一次说道，“不动产、股票和硬通资产都应在组合中占有一席之地。不动产应该集中于全球范围内没有泡沫的市场，而股票则应该在全球范围进行多样化。”\n10通货膨胀不会消失\n通货膨胀是我们无形和隐蔽的敌人。正是它，摧毁经济，重伤企业，吞噬我们个人的财富和快乐。\n“通货膨胀将一直伴随着你。”巴菲特说，“从长期来看，很小的通货膨胀都具有强大的杀伤力。”他认为防御通货膨胀的最佳选择是维持自己的盈利能力。“要么，就选择资本要求不高的企业，持有它的股票，就可以分享美国经济的收益水平。”\n11坦然面对投资中的失误\n是人都会犯错，投资时也不例外。提前预防，犯错后不必自责，继续前进。在2009 年写给股东的信中，巴菲特承认自己大量买入康菲石油股票是重大失误。“我根本没有料到下半年的能源价格暴跌。”他勇敢地走到大家前面，承认自己失误的严重性，“买入的错误时机让伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司为此付出了数百亿美元。”很多年来，巴菲特事后承认自己犯过的很多错误。有时，他会开玩笑说自己应该加入AA 公司，才能改掉不断投资航空业的习惯。但他出类拔萃的投资选择抵消了失误所带来的影响，使伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司成为成功的典范。\n12 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