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DeReNShi
2022-04-01
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
1500
DeReNShi
2022-04-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
🐮
DeReNShi
2022-04-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
[流泪]
DeReNShi
2022-04-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
冲
DeReNShi
2022-02-24
$小米集团-W(01810)$
！
DeReNShi
2025-02-12
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
DeReNShi
2022-04-15
$Adobe(ADBE)$
哈哈
DeReNShi
2022-04-04
[财迷]
@梭哈致富:聊聊我是如何做到2年100倍收益的
DeReNShi
2022-04-04
[呆住]
@Meta君:马斯克要做社交平台了？特斯拉股票连涨8天还要涨？
DeReNShi
2022-04-04
[微笑]
@投资TALK君: ARK重仓暴雷；鲍威尔是对的？QQQ和TLT背离#美股分析
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","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619106162","repostId":"610829806","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":610829806,"gmtCreate":1648554804856,"gmtModify":1648555547095,"author":{"id":"3554892403391087","authorId":"3554892403391087","name":"梭哈致富","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a2f44ad329a279c3722414f20efa06","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554892403391087","idStr":"3554892403391087"},"themes":[],"title":"聊聊我是如何做到2年100倍收益的","htmlText":"什么是期权？梭哈哥给出的见解是：时间+波动。梭哈哥自身理科出身，坚持提升概率和胜率，以此来击败对手，赚取收益，过程做把自己变成一个无情的收割机器。股票之道在于人弃我取，梭哈哥成功的交易非常的多，近期别人做空3倍纳指的时候，是sell put收割了一波；别人做多原油的时候，我sell call赚了一波；别人做空俄罗斯的时候，我sell put强势拿下权利金。别人做空中概的时候，我一个sell put又赚了一波。上上周的muln，上周大麻喊打喊杀，梭哈怎么做呢，反手操作，晒图震场。当然梭哈哥也曾经是个小菜鸟，最早的时候以为股票做sell put很稳，没跌破赚权利金，跌破接正股。去年做了理想的sell put，结果中概一裂再裂，直接颠覆了我的想象力，账户断崖式亏损。后来涅槃重生，总结了一个道理，垃圾股暴涨之后必下跌，垃圾股暴跌之后必横盘或阴跌。所以我经常选择在垃圾股暴涨，把期权波动率拉升之后，交易量开始下滑的时候做空，十拿九稳。顺便说一下amc接下来的操作策略，很多人喊着to the moon，实际都是庄家的炒作，最终一地鸡毛。你不知道amc能涨到多少，但是amc最终会跌下来却是一个必然的结果。amc目前4月1号的期权，40行权价，波动率去到400+，这个时候买call几乎是把钱扔到水池里，反其道而行之，我们可以直接做sell call，赚取权利金，只要横盘一天，2块钱的权利金就剩下1.5不到。当然sell call是世界上最危险的操作，亏损无限，收益有限，但是从概率角度来说，做好止损和仓位控制，我们90%以上会是赢家。梭哈哥赠送一句，永不梭哈永不满仓，仓位控制这门学问学明白了，受益匪浅。最后祝大家发财致富<a href=\"\">[财迷] </a><a href=\"\">[财迷] </a><a href=\"\">[财迷] </a>","listText":"什么是期权？梭哈哥给出的见解是：时间+波动。梭哈哥自身理科出身，坚持提升概率和胜率，以此来击败对手，赚取收益，过程做把自己变成一个无情的收割机器。股票之道在于人弃我取，梭哈哥成功的交易非常的多，近期别人做空3倍纳指的时候，是sell put收割了一波；别人做多原油的时候，我sell call赚了一波；别人做空俄罗斯的时候，我sell put强势拿下权利金。别人做空中概的时候，我一个sell put又赚了一波。上上周的muln，上周大麻喊打喊杀，梭哈怎么做呢，反手操作，晒图震场。当然梭哈哥也曾经是个小菜鸟，最早的时候以为股票做sell put很稳，没跌破赚权利金，跌破接正股。去年做了理想的sell put，结果中概一裂再裂，直接颠覆了我的想象力，账户断崖式亏损。后来涅槃重生，总结了一个道理，垃圾股暴涨之后必下跌，垃圾股暴跌之后必横盘或阴跌。所以我经常选择在垃圾股暴涨，把期权波动率拉升之后，交易量开始下滑的时候做空，十拿九稳。顺便说一下amc接下来的操作策略，很多人喊着to the moon，实际都是庄家的炒作，最终一地鸡毛。你不知道amc能涨到多少，但是amc最终会跌下来却是一个必然的结果。amc目前4月1号的期权，40行权价，波动率去到400+，这个时候买call几乎是把钱扔到水池里，反其道而行之，我们可以直接做sell call，赚取权利金，只要横盘一天，2块钱的权利金就剩下1.5不到。当然sell call是世界上最危险的操作，亏损无限，收益有限，但是从概率角度来说，做好止损和仓位控制，我们90%以上会是赢家。梭哈哥赠送一句，永不梭哈永不满仓，仓位控制这门学问学明白了，受益匪浅。最后祝大家发财致富<a href=\"\">[财迷] </a><a href=\"\">[财迷] </a><a href=\"\">[财迷] </a>","text":"什么是期权？梭哈哥给出的见解是：时间+波动。梭哈哥自身理科出身，坚持提升概率和胜率，以此来击败对手，赚取收益，过程做把自己变成一个无情的收割机器。股票之道在于人弃我取，梭哈哥成功的交易非常的多，近期别人做空3倍纳指的时候，是sell put收割了一波；别人做多原油的时候，我sell call赚了一波；别人做空俄罗斯的时候，我sell put强势拿下权利金。别人做空中概的时候，我一个sell put又赚了一波。上上周的muln，上周大麻喊打喊杀，梭哈怎么做呢，反手操作，晒图震场。当然梭哈哥也曾经是个小菜鸟，最早的时候以为股票做sell put很稳，没跌破赚权利金，跌破接正股。去年做了理想的sell put，结果中概一裂再裂，直接颠覆了我的想象力，账户断崖式亏损。后来涅槃重生，总结了一个道理，垃圾股暴涨之后必下跌，垃圾股暴跌之后必横盘或阴跌。所以我经常选择在垃圾股暴涨，把期权波动率拉升之后，交易量开始下滑的时候做空，十拿九稳。顺便说一下amc接下来的操作策略，很多人喊着to the moon，实际都是庄家的炒作，最终一地鸡毛。你不知道amc能涨到多少，但是amc最终会跌下来却是一个必然的结果。amc目前4月1号的期权，40行权价，波动率去到400+，这个时候买call几乎是把钱扔到水池里，反其道而行之，我们可以直接做sell call，赚取权利金，只要横盘一天，2块钱的权利金就剩下1.5不到。当然sell call是世界上最危险的操作，亏损无限，收益有限，但是从概率角度来说，做好止损和仓位控制，我们90%以上会是赢家。梭哈哥赠送一句，永不梭哈永不满仓，仓位控制这门学问学明白了，受益匪浅。最后祝大家发财致富[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73ff8820a9a290a2472b37a72a0598f","width":"200","height":"200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b338d89aef7d2fb561d6c3668c48682e","width":"200","height":"200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9f115dbd3d350a426fe97b53c297f8","width":"200","height":"200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610829806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619106925,"gmtCreate":1649068420625,"gmtModify":1649068420625,"author":{"id":"3567763437193999","authorId":"3567763437193999","name":"DeReNShi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28440970353a9bd1fc0f61af488a110b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567763437193999","idStr":"3567763437193999"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619106925","repostId":"610914174","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":610914174,"gmtCreate":1648465476270,"gmtModify":1648605844052,"author":{"id":"3544080099545598","authorId":"3544080099545598","name":"Meta君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3b680fa6fb61995e80450be7df83bf2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544080099545598","idStr":"3544080099545598"},"themes":[],"title":"马斯克要做社交平台了？特斯拉股票连涨8天还要涨？","htmlText":"上周五，马斯克在推特发起了一**意调查，该民意调查询问用户是否认为推特遵守言论自由原则。马斯克表示“这次民意调查的结果很重要。请仔细投票。”最后结果超过70% 的人投票“不”。马斯克本人是Twitter 的多产用户，他最近一直批评社交媒体平台及其政策。他曾表示，该公司不遵守言论自由原则正在破坏民主。一名推特用户向马斯克提问：他是否会考虑建立一个包括开源算法和优先考虑言论自由、宣传最少的社交媒体平台。马斯克回答称：正在认真考虑建立一个新的社交媒体平台。至于马斯克会不会打造自己的一个社交平台呢？还未可知。但如果马斯克要建立自己的社交平台，你会感兴趣吗？下面我们聊聊股市的情况。道琼斯期货周日晚间小幅下跌，标准普尔500 指数期货和纳斯达克期货也出现小幅下跌。上周市场反弹继续上扬，多只龙头股闪现买入信号。到目前为止，面对原油价格上涨和国债收益率飙升，股市反弹表现出韧性。但也不能放松警惕，美国国债收益率的持续上涨很难让股市无限期地摆脱困境，尤其是成长股。对主要股指和领先股票而言，适度回调将是健康的。苹果（AAPL），尤其是特斯拉的股票可以休息一下。这几日特斯拉出现了大幅反弹，但有分析师指出在过去几个月中由于科技投资者的避险心态，特斯拉股票显然被过度抛售了。这几天特斯拉创造了一年多来最长的连续上涨纪录，在这周结束后，股价又重新站到了1000以上的位置。回顾过去这段时间，特斯拉股票连续上涨了8天，这一次连续上涨了32%。同时也体现出了特斯拉这只股票的波动性也是非常大的。但是，虽然现在能看到特斯拉8天内涨了32%，但也有可能再过一段时间的8天内再跌个30几%，也不一定，这种事情，相信参与投资特斯拉的投资人们已经经历过很多次了。所以说任何投资特斯拉的投资者都需要一颗强大的心脏，做好强波动的心理准备。特斯拉周五下跌0.3%，收于 1010.64 美元。此前在截至周四的八连胜中飙升32.3%。这","listText":"上周五，马斯克在推特发起了一**意调查，该民意调查询问用户是否认为推特遵守言论自由原则。马斯克表示“这次民意调查的结果很重要。请仔细投票。”最后结果超过70% 的人投票“不”。马斯克本人是Twitter 的多产用户，他最近一直批评社交媒体平台及其政策。他曾表示，该公司不遵守言论自由原则正在破坏民主。一名推特用户向马斯克提问：他是否会考虑建立一个包括开源算法和优先考虑言论自由、宣传最少的社交媒体平台。马斯克回答称：正在认真考虑建立一个新的社交媒体平台。至于马斯克会不会打造自己的一个社交平台呢？还未可知。但如果马斯克要建立自己的社交平台，你会感兴趣吗？下面我们聊聊股市的情况。道琼斯期货周日晚间小幅下跌，标准普尔500 指数期货和纳斯达克期货也出现小幅下跌。上周市场反弹继续上扬，多只龙头股闪现买入信号。到目前为止，面对原油价格上涨和国债收益率飙升，股市反弹表现出韧性。但也不能放松警惕，美国国债收益率的持续上涨很难让股市无限期地摆脱困境，尤其是成长股。对主要股指和领先股票而言，适度回调将是健康的。苹果（AAPL），尤其是特斯拉的股票可以休息一下。这几日特斯拉出现了大幅反弹，但有分析师指出在过去几个月中由于科技投资者的避险心态，特斯拉股票显然被过度抛售了。这几天特斯拉创造了一年多来最长的连续上涨纪录，在这周结束后，股价又重新站到了1000以上的位置。回顾过去这段时间，特斯拉股票连续上涨了8天，这一次连续上涨了32%。同时也体现出了特斯拉这只股票的波动性也是非常大的。但是，虽然现在能看到特斯拉8天内涨了32%，但也有可能再过一段时间的8天内再跌个30几%，也不一定，这种事情，相信参与投资特斯拉的投资人们已经经历过很多次了。所以说任何投资特斯拉的投资者都需要一颗强大的心脏，做好强波动的心理准备。特斯拉周五下跌0.3%，收于 1010.64 美元。此前在截至周四的八连胜中飙升32.3%。这","text":"上周五，马斯克在推特发起了一**意调查，该民意调查询问用户是否认为推特遵守言论自由原则。马斯克表示“这次民意调查的结果很重要。请仔细投票。”最后结果超过70% 的人投票“不”。马斯克本人是Twitter 的多产用户，他最近一直批评社交媒体平台及其政策。他曾表示，该公司不遵守言论自由原则正在破坏民主。一名推特用户向马斯克提问：他是否会考虑建立一个包括开源算法和优先考虑言论自由、宣传最少的社交媒体平台。马斯克回答称：正在认真考虑建立一个新的社交媒体平台。至于马斯克会不会打造自己的一个社交平台呢？还未可知。但如果马斯克要建立自己的社交平台，你会感兴趣吗？下面我们聊聊股市的情况。道琼斯期货周日晚间小幅下跌，标准普尔500 指数期货和纳斯达克期货也出现小幅下跌。上周市场反弹继续上扬，多只龙头股闪现买入信号。到目前为止，面对原油价格上涨和国债收益率飙升，股市反弹表现出韧性。但也不能放松警惕，美国国债收益率的持续上涨很难让股市无限期地摆脱困境，尤其是成长股。对主要股指和领先股票而言，适度回调将是健康的。苹果（AAPL），尤其是特斯拉的股票可以休息一下。这几日特斯拉出现了大幅反弹，但有分析师指出在过去几个月中由于科技投资者的避险心态，特斯拉股票显然被过度抛售了。这几天特斯拉创造了一年多来最长的连续上涨纪录，在这周结束后，股价又重新站到了1000以上的位置。回顾过去这段时间，特斯拉股票连续上涨了8天，这一次连续上涨了32%。同时也体现出了特斯拉这只股票的波动性也是非常大的。但是，虽然现在能看到特斯拉8天内涨了32%，但也有可能再过一段时间的8天内再跌个30几%，也不一定，这种事情，相信参与投资特斯拉的投资人们已经经历过很多次了。所以说任何投资特斯拉的投资者都需要一颗强大的心脏，做好强波动的心理准备。特斯拉周五下跌0.3%，收于 1010.64 美元。此前在截至周四的八连胜中飙升32.3%。这","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf253d09a57e4403042673dff44b32b","width":"719","height":"737"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e8998cdc7897a5f94dca9275a0074e","width":"700","height":"486"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/516cfbb6bd7f59d81b3b2ef137450fdd","width":"1186","height":"1100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610914174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619106090,"gmtCreate":1649068369904,"gmtModify":1649068369904,"author":{"id":"3567763437193999","authorId":"3567763437193999","name":"DeReNShi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28440970353a9bd1fc0f61af488a110b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567763437193999","idStr":"3567763437193999"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619106090","repostId":"610468284","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":610468284,"gmtCreate":1648732532443,"gmtModify":1648876812545,"author":{"id":"9000000000000105","authorId":"9000000000000105","name":"投资TALK君","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000105","idStr":"9000000000000105"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n ARK重仓暴雷；鲍威尔是对的？QQQ和TLT背离#美股分析\n \n","listText":"ARK重仓暴雷；鲍威尔是对的？QQQ和TLT背离#美股分析","text":"ARK重仓暴雷；鲍威尔是对的？QQQ和TLT背离#美股分析","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a736fb5a194e4ce44f0f2b4771440387","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610468284","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"761f9530c52a41ac93ae255723d6154f","tweetId":"610468284","title":"ARK重仓暴雷；鲍威尔是对的？QQQ和TLT背离#美股分析","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/1648732527050be8778d590dffee12efae809ed79577e.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a736fb5a194e4ce44f0f2b4771440387","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/1648732527050be8778d590dffee12efae809ed79577e.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619108249,"gmtCreate":1649068072659,"gmtModify":1649068072659,"author":{"id":"3567763437193999","authorId":"3567763437193999","name":"DeReNShi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28440970353a9bd1fc0f61af488a110b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567763437193999","idStr":"3567763437193999"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yea","listText":"yea","text":"yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619108249","repostId":"610068634","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":610068634,"gmtCreate":1648437716677,"gmtModify":1648442601901,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312224764596","idStr":"3534312224764596"},"themes":[],"title":"美股可以阶段性看空但长期看涨，A股扛得住近期下跌就是买入机会","htmlText":"很久没和大家聊聊中美股指的情况，自3月加息周期开启，中美股市将进入到新状态中，通过历史美元周期下的表现总结，我们可以对中美股指未来的走势趋向有个大概的认识，从而更好地布局未来。 一、被动“加息”的强度可松可紧 很早就和大家探讨过，此次美元加息是美元贬值周期下的纠偏式紧缩，纠偏式紧缩意味着可调节，松紧程度视乎美联储侧重于哪个数据，如侧重通胀，则持续鹰；反之则能不表态尽量不表态维持现状。所以从过往的两个周期来看，加息周期过后，总是需要新一轮印钞来激活经济。 最终加息和紧缩到何种程度我们不得而知，但此后再宽松的周期就是我们期待的机会。 二、美股指贬值周期下的特征 美股指之于美国 和 房地产之于中国，本质是一致的，就是资金蓄水池。崩盘，是无法承受的痛，维持当前市值稳中有涨，以时间换空间是最优方案，所以美股指除了阶段性看空一两把以外，其余时候就是buy&hold的策略。 当然有虎友会问，那个股可长期持有吗？答案肯定是要区别对待。指数是信心的象征，它下跌意味着市场崩盘，个股跌得更多。而只要指数不大幅度下跌，局部个股及板块清零都不是问题，所以对于个股来说，指数股相对安全，非指数股则看运气。 而美股指在贬值的初中末期均有发生大幅调整的概率，而当前处于贬值中期的阶段。而贬值中期的调整发生后，美股指均是降速后的慢牛特征。也即高位震荡市。简单来说，已经很难有前两年股市的超额收益率，取而代之的是考验耐心的震荡市，股指buy&hold仍是选择，只是收益率大大下降。具体策略仍参照此前帖子给出的多空依据进行布局即可。 三、A股在美元贬值周期下的机会 俄乌冲突，迫使大量欧洲资金逃离欧洲（毕竟担心战争加剧），而资金逃离，除了部分回流美国外，另一小部分资金可能会考虑流入中国。中国的经济基本面放眼世界，并不差，真正差的是信贷环境。前两年中国为了打压房地产挤压地产泡沫，一直严控放水规模，从","listText":"很久没和大家聊聊中美股指的情况，自3月加息周期开启，中美股市将进入到新状态中，通过历史美元周期下的表现总结，我们可以对中美股指未来的走势趋向有个大概的认识，从而更好地布局未来。 一、被动“加息”的强度可松可紧 很早就和大家探讨过，此次美元加息是美元贬值周期下的纠偏式紧缩，纠偏式紧缩意味着可调节，松紧程度视乎美联储侧重于哪个数据，如侧重通胀，则持续鹰；反之则能不表态尽量不表态维持现状。所以从过往的两个周期来看，加息周期过后，总是需要新一轮印钞来激活经济。 最终加息和紧缩到何种程度我们不得而知，但此后再宽松的周期就是我们期待的机会。 二、美股指贬值周期下的特征 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由于加息打压通胀，从长远来说会利多经济，因此美股指可谓扛过了最艰难的时刻，当然也包括了亚洲的港股和A股。此前跟大家说过，250日均线是美股指的重要分水岭，上周股指也大幅反弹穿越250日均线，那么美股指短期风险解除，做空美股的朋友们注意止损。做多的朋友们迎来了喘息的机会，至于幅度，目前无法估算，我只能以2000年前后的指数走势作为参考。 毕竟疫情之后，全球经济处于修复期，无论哪个国家都经历不起一次金融市场的大崩溃，虽然我们都知道指数存在一定泡沫，但若当前刺破泡沫的危害远大于承受能力的话，那么政府总会想尽办法去保护它，政府的力量是不能忽视的。中国的房市和美国的股市本质同源，可阶段打压但不能随意踩踏。 二、原油 历史上，原油在纠偏式加息周期下，都是震荡市。而且目前叠加了俄乌冲突，即便俄乌和谈，但国际制裁不可能短期撤销，这会导致的问题在于供应信息混乱，产量的增长会被人为地贸易切断，油价短期不可能太弱势，尽管波动会十分巨大。 技术上，当前油价处于2011-2014年的震荡区间中，也即75-115美元的价格水平，在该水平内，油价将根据短期供应消息大幅震荡，有利好则脉冲，无利好也大幅下跌，因此技术性交易即可。 三、黄金 贵金属总体仍是利率敏感品种，在加息周期下，往往表现偏弱势。最少我们不能很放心地趋势性做多。 诚然，弱势不代表金价暴跌，以目前通胀的基调下，阴跌","text":"上周美联储进入加息周期正式确认，所以有必要和大家聊聊关于各市场的中长期影响。 记得去年老虎开放日时，我给大家介绍过美元即将进入“纠偏式”的加息周期，相信很多朋友忘记了当时的结论，因此这里想和大家重温一下。而主要的结论其实就是四个字“宽阔震荡”。 加息对需求端（投资需求）的影响大于供应端，虽然目前大宗商品的价格走势基本都受供应端的影响而导致，但需求降温也会对价格产生负面影响，因此单边看涨商品肯定不会是未来2年的最优策略。 一、美股指 由于加息打压通胀，从长远来说会利多经济，因此美股指可谓扛过了最艰难的时刻，当然也包括了亚洲的港股和A股。此前跟大家说过，250日均线是美股指的重要分水岭，上周股指也大幅反弹穿越250日均线，那么美股指短期风险解除，做空美股的朋友们注意止损。做多的朋友们迎来了喘息的机会，至于幅度，目前无法估算，我只能以2000年前后的指数走势作为参考。 毕竟疫情之后，全球经济处于修复期，无论哪个国家都经历不起一次金融市场的大崩溃，虽然我们都知道指数存在一定泡沫，但若当前刺破泡沫的危害远大于承受能力的话，那么政府总会想尽办法去保护它，政府的力量是不能忽视的。中国的房市和美国的股市本质同源，可阶段打压但不能随意踩踏。 二、原油 历史上，原油在纠偏式加息周期下，都是震荡市。而且目前叠加了俄乌冲突，即便俄乌和谈，但国际制裁不可能短期撤销，这会导致的问题在于供应信息混乱，产量的增长会被人为地贸易切断，油价短期不可能太弱势，尽管波动会十分巨大。 技术上，当前油价处于2011-2014年的震荡区间中，也即75-115美元的价格水平，在该水平内，油价将根据短期供应消息大幅震荡，有利好则脉冲，无利好也大幅下跌，因此技术性交易即可。 三、黄金 贵金属总体仍是利率敏感品种，在加息周期下，往往表现偏弱势。最少我们不能很放心地趋势性做多。 诚然，弱势不代表金价暴跌，以目前通胀的基调下，阴跌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61059ad3f95b15d13ec31ca6a9dd9e60","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e956b4a65c56b925cbb866f09fd0d7","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44405cd67a35fd924b6809ca12f14f47","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637051479","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636367127,"gmtCreate":1645681053579,"gmtModify":1645681053579,"author":{"id":"3567763437193999","authorId":"3567763437193999","name":"DeReNShi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28440970353a9bd1fc0f61af488a110b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567763437193999","idStr":"3567763437193999"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"！乌拉","listText":"！乌拉","text":"！乌拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636367127","repostId":"631452999","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":631452999,"gmtCreate":1644903711897,"gmtModify":1644913768754,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502767768442965","idStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"拜登：普京已作出开战决定！俄乌战争会爆发吗？","htmlText":"近日，据美国媒体报道： 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总的来说，目前的态势如下： 俄罗斯和乌克兰，表示：不希望发生战争，但是双方均在边境部署了不少军队； 英国和美国，表示：俄罗斯马上就会入侵乌克兰； 法国、德国等欧盟国家，表示：不希望发生战争，同时表示十分担忧，并向俄罗斯发出严厉警告。 中国，表示：呼吁各方冷静，不做刺激局势紧张的事情。 最后，由于紧张的局势，已经导致石油、天然气等价格创出了近期新高；另一方面，G7集团发表了最新联合声明：准备对俄罗斯事实新一轮大规模经济制裁。 俄罗斯回应称： 俄罗斯与美国的关系正处于“躺在地板上的状态”。 ... ... 最后，大家聊一聊： 你如何看待俄罗斯和乌克兰之间紧张的局势？会爆发战争吗？ 石油、天然气是否还会继续上涨？ 精彩留言用户可获得888社区积分噢！ <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QMmain\">$小原油主连 2203(QMmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2203(CLmain)$</a>","text":"近日，据美国媒体报道： 拜登已告诉欧洲盟友“普京已经作出开战决定”。并表示，俄罗斯“入侵”乌克兰的日期是2月16日。 2月16日，就是明天。 而乌克兰方面已经批准了“首都撤离计划”，以防范可能出现的军事危机。 同时，包括美国、英国、日本、新加坡等超过10国的外交部： 呼吁公民尽快离开乌克兰。 但中国外交部目前并未跟进，仅表示： 在乌克兰的公民要增强安全防范意识，同时呼吁各方不做刺激局势紧张、炒作渲染危机的事情。 同时，俄罗斯外交部再次重生： 没有与乌克兰发生战争的意图，但自身利益不可以被忽视。 总的来说，目前的态势如下： 俄罗斯和乌克兰，表示：不希望发生战争，但是双方均在边境部署了不少军队； 英国和美国，表示：俄罗斯马上就会入侵乌克兰； 法国、德国等欧盟国家，表示：不希望发生战争，同时表示十分担忧，并向俄罗斯发出严厉警告。 中国，表示：呼吁各方冷静，不做刺激局势紧张的事情。 最后，由于紧张的局势，已经导致石油、天然气等价格创出了近期新高；另一方面，G7集团发表了最新联合声明：准备对俄罗斯事实新一轮大规模经济制裁。 俄罗斯回应称： 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指数期货和纳斯达克期货也出现小幅下跌。上周市场反弹继续上扬，多只龙头股闪现买入信号。到目前为止，面对原油价格上涨和国债收益率飙升，股市反弹表现出韧性。但也不能放松警惕，美国国债收益率的持续上涨很难让股市无限期地摆脱困境，尤其是成长股。对主要股指和领先股票而言，适度回调将是健康的。苹果（AAPL），尤其是特斯拉的股票可以休息一下。这几日特斯拉出现了大幅反弹，但有分析师指出在过去几个月中由于科技投资者的避险心态，特斯拉股票显然被过度抛售了。这几天特斯拉创造了一年多来最长的连续上涨纪录，在这周结束后，股价又重新站到了1000以上的位置。回顾过去这段时间，特斯拉股票连续上涨了8天，这一次连续上涨了32%。同时也体现出了特斯拉这只股票的波动性也是非常大的。但是，虽然现在能看到特斯拉8天内涨了32%，但也有可能再过一段时间的8天内再跌个30几%，也不一定，这种事情，相信参与投资特斯拉的投资人们已经经历过很多次了。所以说任何投资特斯拉的投资者都需要一颗强大的心脏，做好强波动的心理准备。特斯拉周五下跌0.3%，收于 1010.64 美元。此前在截至周四的八连胜中飙升32.3%。这","listText":"上周五，马斯克在推特发起了一**意调查，该民意调查询问用户是否认为推特遵守言论自由原则。马斯克表示“这次民意调查的结果很重要。请仔细投票。”最后结果超过70% 的人投票“不”。马斯克本人是Twitter 的多产用户，他最近一直批评社交媒体平台及其政策。他曾表示，该公司不遵守言论自由原则正在破坏民主。一名推特用户向马斯克提问：他是否会考虑建立一个包括开源算法和优先考虑言论自由、宣传最少的社交媒体平台。马斯克回答称：正在认真考虑建立一个新的社交媒体平台。至于马斯克会不会打造自己的一个社交平台呢？还未可知。但如果马斯克要建立自己的社交平台，你会感兴趣吗？下面我们聊聊股市的情况。道琼斯期货周日晚间小幅下跌，标准普尔500 指数期货和纳斯达克期货也出现小幅下跌。上周市场反弹继续上扬，多只龙头股闪现买入信号。到目前为止，面对原油价格上涨和国债收益率飙升，股市反弹表现出韧性。但也不能放松警惕，美国国债收益率的持续上涨很难让股市无限期地摆脱困境，尤其是成长股。对主要股指和领先股票而言，适度回调将是健康的。苹果（AAPL），尤其是特斯拉的股票可以休息一下。这几日特斯拉出现了大幅反弹，但有分析师指出在过去几个月中由于科技投资者的避险心态，特斯拉股票显然被过度抛售了。这几天特斯拉创造了一年多来最长的连续上涨纪录，在这周结束后，股价又重新站到了1000以上的位置。回顾过去这段时间，特斯拉股票连续上涨了8天，这一次连续上涨了32%。同时也体现出了特斯拉这只股票的波动性也是非常大的。但是，虽然现在能看到特斯拉8天内涨了32%，但也有可能再过一段时间的8天内再跌个30几%，也不一定，这种事情，相信参与投资特斯拉的投资人们已经经历过很多次了。所以说任何投资特斯拉的投资者都需要一颗强大的心脏，做好强波动的心理准备。特斯拉周五下跌0.3%，收于 1010.64 美元。此前在截至周四的八连胜中飙升32.3%。这","text":"上周五，马斯克在推特发起了一**意调查，该民意调查询问用户是否认为推特遵守言论自由原则。马斯克表示“这次民意调查的结果很重要。请仔细投票。”最后结果超过70% 的人投票“不”。马斯克本人是Twitter 的多产用户，他最近一直批评社交媒体平台及其政策。他曾表示，该公司不遵守言论自由原则正在破坏民主。一名推特用户向马斯克提问：他是否会考虑建立一个包括开源算法和优先考虑言论自由、宣传最少的社交媒体平台。马斯克回答称：正在认真考虑建立一个新的社交媒体平台。至于马斯克会不会打造自己的一个社交平台呢？还未可知。但如果马斯克要建立自己的社交平台，你会感兴趣吗？下面我们聊聊股市的情况。道琼斯期货周日晚间小幅下跌，标准普尔500 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