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2021-07-21
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","listText":"Woww[冷漠] ","text":"Woww[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803064994","repostId":"1139478455","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139478455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627370605,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139478455?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139478455","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</li> <li>Our analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</li> <li>The dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce2494cb75075c64622ebd6b351e43d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们仍然认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来的增长已经被消化。</li><li>我们的分析显示，Palantir的公允价值为每股8.22美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</li><li>稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止Palantir股票的升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（PLTR）最近几周的表现一直逊于市场，我们认为其股价仍有更大的下跌空间。我们的分析表明，Palantir在目前的水平上被严重高估，一些问题可能会阻止其股票在短期内进一步升值。因此，我们仍然认为最好以当前价格避开Palantir，因为其上涨空间似乎有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有几个危险信号，你不应该忽视</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir专门为其客户创建用于收集数据的定制软件解决方案，这些客户大多是政府机构和上市公司。虽然有些人可能认为Palantir是一家具有巨大潜力的年轻公司，但事实是它并不是一家初创公司，因为它已经经营了近二十年，从那时起，它已经设法增加了不到200个客户。因此，该公司接触到的组织数量有限，而这些组织创造了大部分收入。这主要是因为Palantir没有可扩展的业务。该公司的平均合同价值从500万美元到600万美元不等，这使得中小型企业无法使用其服务。虽然Palantir试图通过以有吸引力的条款为商业领域提供代工平台来解决这一问题，但现在判断它是否会提高大多数第三方的承受能力并从长远来看对其财务状况产生任何重大影响还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然多头可能想否认这一点，但Palantir的运营方式就像一家咨询公司。该公司有一个特殊的职位，即前沿部署工程师，他分析潜在客户的不同流程，然后解释Palantir的软件如何帮助他们改善运营。考虑到这一点，可以肯定地说Palantir没有独特的商业模式，因为它的整个主张是它可以比其他人更好地分析可用数据。然而，没有什么能阻止新进入者进入该领域并提供类似的解决方案，也没有什么能阻止组织的内部IT部门开发更好的工具，以更实惠的价格分析所有流程。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，尽管最近几个季度利润率和毛利润有所增加，但在从事该业务这么长时间后，它在历史上从未盈利过。近年来，其运营亏损仅从2018年的-6亿美元扩大到2020年的-11.7亿美元，并在过去12个月扩大到-12.2亿美元。这是由于过度的股票薪酬计划导致费用增加和大规模稀释，这是许多多头往往忽视的。我们不要忘记，该公司上季度与SBC计划相关的费用同比增长了约257%，达到1.93亿美元。与此同时，Palantir已拥有18亿股流通股，较去年年底的15.2亿股有所增加。问题是，过度的SBC计划将继续成为公司投资者的一个主要问题，因为仍有4.77亿份期权尚未行使，如果完全行使，将使现有股东稀释20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们仍然认为Palantir的股票将继续是一项没有吸引力的投资，并且可能会继续跑输市场。自一个月前我们的看跌文章发表以来，它已经下跌了约15%，我们认为还有更大的贬值空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facca499bd702a4193cac4eabbe4a9a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>看跌Palantir的另一个原因是存在巨大的抛售压力，这是由公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官造成的，他们不断在公开市场上抛售股票。仅在7月份，内部人士就出售了总价值6300万美元的Palantir股票，仅比第一季度禁售期到期时出售的股票略少3100万美元。考虑到这一点以及他们仍持有该公司约10%的股权这一事实，可以肯定的是，他们将继续出售股票并造成更大的抛售压力，这可能会阻止该股大幅升值从当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> We created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.</p><p><blockquote>我们创建了一个贴现现金流模型来查找Palantir的公允价值。我们模型中的加权平均资本成本为6%，而终端增长率为3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb588ed877784db58cfe10b7d49d6dae\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ, Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ，自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</p><p><blockquote>在进行所有必要的计算后，我们的DCF模型显示Palantir的公允价值为每股8.47美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9988abd16861dfad80d5febd22b2c1fb\" tg-width=\"404\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>对于相对估值，我们将Palantir与来自科技行业，特别是SaaS利基市场的其他八家公司进行了比较。通过查看下面的数字，我们可以有把握地说，Palantir对其他人来说被严重高估，特别是因为其EBITDA利润率为-72.8%，是同行中最差的，而且市值约为400亿美元，其股票定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70de8f9f7b52ae29d77492ed21083982\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.</p><p><blockquote>通过合并DCF模型和相对估值法，并在最终分析中给予前者75%的权重，而在最终分析中给予后者25美元的权重，我们得出的结论是，Palantir的最终公允价值为每股8.22美元，明显低于其目前的市场价格约为每股22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05db90bdfb26c691331c9cdede01a87b\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir拥有先进的数据软件解决方案，但我们认为Palantir仍然是一项没有吸引力的投资，其股价不太可能很快大幅走高。该公司在市场上没有一个价格实惠的独特主张，而且有充分的理由相信，由于通胀上升和竞争加剧，其费用在未来几年将继续增加，而其利润将继续下降。遭受。因此，尽管不时签署数百万美元的新合同，但仍然很难证明其约400亿美元的市值是合理的。考虑到这一点，我们坚信Palantir现阶段不是价值投资，也不是成长型投资，因为稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止其股票升值。</blockquote></p><p> While we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们预计该股在可预见的未来不会贬值至每股8.22美元的公允价值，但较当前市场价格大幅下跌的可能性很大，特别是因为该公司的交易价格已经是其收入的28倍，并且被认为被高估了。因此，我们坚持认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</li> <li>Our analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</li> <li>The dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce2494cb75075c64622ebd6b351e43d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们仍然认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来的增长已经被消化。</li><li>我们的分析显示，Palantir的公允价值为每股8.22美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</li><li>稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止Palantir股票的升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（PLTR）最近几周的表现一直逊于市场，我们认为其股价仍有更大的下跌空间。我们的分析表明，Palantir在目前的水平上被严重高估，一些问题可能会阻止其股票在短期内进一步升值。因此，我们仍然认为最好以当前价格避开Palantir，因为其上涨空间似乎有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有几个危险信号，你不应该忽视</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir专门为其客户创建用于收集数据的定制软件解决方案，这些客户大多是政府机构和上市公司。虽然有些人可能认为Palantir是一家具有巨大潜力的年轻公司，但事实是它并不是一家初创公司，因为它已经经营了近二十年，从那时起，它已经设法增加了不到200个客户。因此，该公司接触到的组织数量有限，而这些组织创造了大部分收入。这主要是因为Palantir没有可扩展的业务。该公司的平均合同价值从500万美元到600万美元不等，这使得中小型企业无法使用其服务。虽然Palantir试图通过以有吸引力的条款为商业领域提供代工平台来解决这一问题，但现在判断它是否会提高大多数第三方的承受能力并从长远来看对其财务状况产生任何重大影响还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然多头可能想否认这一点，但Palantir的运营方式就像一家咨询公司。该公司有一个特殊的职位，即前沿部署工程师，他分析潜在客户的不同流程，然后解释Palantir的软件如何帮助他们改善运营。考虑到这一点，可以肯定地说Palantir没有独特的商业模式，因为它的整个主张是它可以比其他人更好地分析可用数据。然而，没有什么能阻止新进入者进入该领域并提供类似的解决方案，也没有什么能阻止组织的内部IT部门开发更好的工具，以更实惠的价格分析所有流程。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，尽管最近几个季度利润率和毛利润有所增加，但在从事该业务这么长时间后，它在历史上从未盈利过。近年来，其运营亏损仅从2018年的-6亿美元扩大到2020年的-11.7亿美元，并在过去12个月扩大到-12.2亿美元。这是由于过度的股票薪酬计划导致费用增加和大规模稀释，这是许多多头往往忽视的。我们不要忘记，该公司上季度与SBC计划相关的费用同比增长了约257%，达到1.93亿美元。与此同时，Palantir已拥有18亿股流通股，较去年年底的15.2亿股有所增加。问题是，过度的SBC计划将继续成为公司投资者的一个主要问题，因为仍有4.77亿份期权尚未行使，如果完全行使，将使现有股东稀释20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们仍然认为Palantir的股票将继续是一项没有吸引力的投资，并且可能会继续跑输市场。自一个月前我们的看跌文章发表以来，它已经下跌了约15%，我们认为还有更大的贬值空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facca499bd702a4193cac4eabbe4a9a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>看跌Palantir的另一个原因是存在巨大的抛售压力，这是由公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官造成的，他们不断在公开市场上抛售股票。仅在7月份，内部人士就出售了总价值6300万美元的Palantir股票，仅比第一季度禁售期到期时出售的股票略少3100万美元。考虑到这一点以及他们仍持有该公司约10%的股权这一事实，可以肯定的是，他们将继续出售股票并造成更大的抛售压力，这可能会阻止该股大幅升值从当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> We created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.</p><p><blockquote>我们创建了一个贴现现金流模型来查找Palantir的公允价值。我们模型中的加权平均资本成本为6%，而终端增长率为3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb588ed877784db58cfe10b7d49d6dae\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ, Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ，自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</p><p><blockquote>在进行所有必要的计算后，我们的DCF模型显示Palantir的公允价值为每股8.47美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9988abd16861dfad80d5febd22b2c1fb\" tg-width=\"404\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>对于相对估值，我们将Palantir与来自科技行业，特别是SaaS利基市场的其他八家公司进行了比较。通过查看下面的数字，我们可以有把握地说，Palantir对其他人来说被严重高估，特别是因为其EBITDA利润率为-72.8%，是同行中最差的，而且市值约为400亿美元，其股票定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70de8f9f7b52ae29d77492ed21083982\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.</p><p><blockquote>通过合并DCF模型和相对估值法，并在最终分析中给予前者75%的权重，而在最终分析中给予后者25美元的权重，我们得出的结论是，Palantir的最终公允价值为每股8.22美元，明显低于其目前的市场价格约为每股22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05db90bdfb26c691331c9cdede01a87b\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir拥有先进的数据软件解决方案，但我们认为Palantir仍然是一项没有吸引力的投资，其股价不太可能很快大幅走高。该公司在市场上没有一个价格实惠的独特主张，而且有充分的理由相信，由于通胀上升和竞争加剧，其费用在未来几年将继续增加，而其利润将继续下降。遭受。因此，尽管不时签署数百万美元的新合同，但仍然很难证明其约400亿美元的市值是合理的。考虑到这一点，我们坚信Palantir现阶段不是价值投资，也不是成长型投资，因为稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止其股票升值。</blockquote></p><p> While we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们预计该股在可预见的未来不会贬值至每股8.22美元的公允价值，但较当前市场价格大幅下跌的可能性很大，特别是因为该公司的交易价格已经是其收入的28倍，并且被认为被高估了。因此，我们坚持认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139478455","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.\nOur analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nThe dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.\n\nKevin Dietsch/Getty Images News\nPalantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.\nThere Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore\nPalantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.\nIn addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.\nFor that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nAnother reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.\nValuation\nWe created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.\nSource: Capital IQ, Own estimates\nAfter doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nSource: Own estimates\nFor relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.\nSource: Capital IQ\nBy consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.\nSource: Own estimates\nTakeaway\nDespite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.\nWhile we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176871892,"gmtCreate":1626877777816,"gmtModify":1633770164107,"author":{"id":"3567827268544698","authorId":"3567827268544698","name":"HOONGINN","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567827268544698","idStr":"3567827268544698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[你懂的] ","listText":"[你懂的] ","text":"[你懂的]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176871892","repostId":"1182009211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182009211","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market 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$31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ba84b633e0ac3f409f8c463cd88beb\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ff2661c20fa3335bbd359f86b5e594\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 22:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. </p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）加密货币相关股票早盘飙升。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ba84b633e0ac3f409f8c463cd88beb\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ff2661c20fa3335bbd359f86b5e594\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182009211","content_text":"(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. \nOn day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170247955,"gmtCreate":1626439361277,"gmtModify":1633926758293,"author":{"id":"3567827268544698","authorId":"3567827268544698","name":"HOONGINN","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567827268544698","idStr":"3567827268544698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意] ","listText":"[得意] ","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170247955","repostId":"2151150436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170960768,"gmtCreate":1626399920254,"gmtModify":1631884627137,"author":{"id":"3567827268544698","authorId":"3567827268544698","name":"HOONGINN","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567827268544698","idStr":"3567827268544698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a>[傲娇] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a>[傲娇] ","text":"$Salesforce.com(CRM)$[傲娇]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da44b3422f61b674cee19e58d15d3bc8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170960768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129273264,"gmtCreate":1624375609258,"gmtModify":1634007029504,"author":{"id":"3567827268544698","authorId":"3567827268544698","name":"HOONGINN","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567827268544698","idStr":"3567827268544698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129273264","repostId":"1180651681","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180651681","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624374662,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180651681?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180651681","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder\nMonetary ","content":"<p><b>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Monetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的货币政策正在积极推动周期性增长的快速反弹，甚至迎接通胀的上行。这与1994年老一代政策制定者面对类似周期性反弹的方式形成了鲜明对比。当时，政策制定者迅速而积极地抑制周期性扩张，特别是通胀上升。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Someone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免自己犯下重大政策错误。透明度和可预测性的制度僵化使得宽松货币政策持续的时间超过了所需的时间。与1995年老一代政策制定者在1994年面临类似情景时设计的软着陆相比，目前的做法使经济走上了硬着陆的道路。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2021 vs. 1994</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>2021年与1994年</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的经济与1994年有很多相同的特征。随着不利因素的消退，这两年都出现了快速增长和价格压力。2021年，强劲反弹反映了经济重新开放以及宽松货币和财政刺激的帮助。1994年反弹的催化剂来自宽松货币政策的延长以及家庭去杠杆化、企业重组和国防削减的结束。</blockquote></p><p> 2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.</p><p><blockquote>继上一年创纪录的下降之后，2021年的快速增长速度更快、范围更广。普遍估计2021年实际GDP增长率在6%至7%之间，而1994年的增长率为4%。但这两年最大的区别是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Core consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.<b>Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.</b></p><p><blockquote>2021年前五个月，核心消费者通胀率的年化增长率为5%，而通胀率在1994年达到3%的峰值。管道通货膨胀的速度是它的三倍多。<b>中间材料的核心价格在过去一年中上涨了17%，而1994年的峰值为5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> The current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.</p><p><blockquote>当代政策制定者认为，产品市场的供需将在某个时候“自动修正”。这意味着，随着企业提高生产水平以满足更高水平的需求，而不会对经济造成任何干扰，管道通胀压力将消失。当然，在现实中，一两个产品市场可以重新调整。但是，考虑多种产品市场是天真的，住房和服务经济的许多部分可以同时这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.<b>A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.</b></p><p><blockquote>透明度和可预测性的制度僵化阻止了政策制定者结束所有人都认为不再需要的住房资产购买计划。这是实施货币政策的正确方式吗？仅仅因为政策制定者没有告诉或告知金融市场它计划缩减其资产购买计划，在完全透明之前它不能这样做。这毫无意义。<b>一项助长不可持续的需求激增和房价上涨的政策今天是错误的，明天就会更加错误。</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>1994年，老一代政策制定者将强劲的订单和材料价格上涨视为公司需要更多库存来保护生产计划的证据。2021年已经有企业因零部件短缺而不得不减产的例子。抑制最终需求被视为打破和缩短通胀周期性上升的必要条件。因此，1994年政策制定者连续12个月提高官方利率，将官方利率从3%提高到6%，翻了一番。官方利率的逐步上升带来了1995年的软着陆。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e215035587498373a49afd2e7a1eb321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"372\"><b>The current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome</b>. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前零官方利率和资产购买的政策立场使经济走上了一条不同的道路，硬着陆的可能性要大得多</b>美联储需要有人尽快发声，因为在快速增长和物价压力上升的背景下，创纪录的货币宽松政策不再是必要的，在此过程中，经济将走上不可持续的道路，结局将很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSomeone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Avoid Committing A Major Policy Error<blockquote>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 23:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免犯下重大政策错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Monetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的货币政策正在积极推动周期性增长的快速反弹，甚至迎接通胀的上行。这与1994年老一代政策制定者面对类似周期性反弹的方式形成了鲜明对比。当时，政策制定者迅速而积极地抑制周期性扩张，特别是通胀上升。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Someone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>美联储需要有人大声疾呼，以避免自己犯下重大政策错误。透明度和可预测性的制度僵化使得宽松货币政策持续的时间超过了所需的时间。与1995年老一代政策制定者在1994年面临类似情景时设计的软着陆相比，目前的做法使经济走上了硬着陆的道路。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2021 vs. 1994</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>2021年与1994年</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的经济与1994年有很多相同的特征。随着不利因素的消退，这两年都出现了快速增长和价格压力。2021年，强劲反弹反映了经济重新开放以及宽松货币和财政刺激的帮助。1994年反弹的催化剂来自宽松货币政策的延长以及家庭去杠杆化、企业重组和国防削减的结束。</blockquote></p><p> 2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.</p><p><blockquote>继上一年创纪录的下降之后，2021年的快速增长速度更快、范围更广。普遍估计2021年实际GDP增长率在6%至7%之间，而1994年的增长率为4%。但这两年最大的区别是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Core consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.<b>Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.</b></p><p><blockquote>2021年前五个月，核心消费者通胀率的年化增长率为5%，而通胀率在1994年达到3%的峰值。管道通货膨胀的速度是它的三倍多。<b>中间材料的核心价格在过去一年中上涨了17%，而1994年的峰值为5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> The current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.</p><p><blockquote>当代政策制定者认为，产品市场的供需将在某个时候“自动修正”。这意味着，随着企业提高生产水平以满足更高水平的需求，而不会对经济造成任何干扰，管道通胀压力将消失。当然，在现实中，一两个产品市场可以重新调整。但是，考虑多种产品市场是天真的，住房和服务经济的许多部分可以同时这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.<b>A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.</b></p><p><blockquote>透明度和可预测性的制度僵化阻止了政策制定者结束所有人都认为不再需要的住房资产购买计划。这是实施货币政策的正确方式吗？仅仅因为政策制定者没有告诉或告知金融市场它计划缩减其资产购买计划，在完全透明之前它不能这样做。这毫无意义。<b>一项助长不可持续的需求激增和房价上涨的政策今天是错误的，明天就会更加错误。</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>1994年，老一代政策制定者将强劲的订单和材料价格上涨视为公司需要更多库存来保护生产计划的证据。2021年已经有企业因零部件短缺而不得不减产的例子。抑制最终需求被视为打破和缩短通胀周期性上升的必要条件。因此，1994年政策制定者连续12个月提高官方利率，将官方利率从3%提高到6%，翻了一番。官方利率的逐步上升带来了1995年的软着陆。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e215035587498373a49afd2e7a1eb321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"372\"><b>The current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome</b>. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前零官方利率和资产购买的政策立场使经济走上了一条不同的道路，硬着陆的可能性要大得多</b>美联储需要有人尽快发声，因为在快速增长和物价压力上升的背景下，创纪录的货币宽松政策不再是必要的，在此过程中，经济将走上不可持续的道路，结局将很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someone-fed-needs-speak-avoid-committing-major-policy-error?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someone-fed-needs-speak-avoid-committing-major-policy-error?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180651681","content_text":"Someone At The Fed Needs To Speak Up To Save Itself From Committing A Major Policy Blunder\nMonetary policy in 2021 is actively promoting the fast cyclical growth bounce and even welcoming the uptick in inflation. That's in sharp contrast to how the old generation of policymakers confronted a similar cyclical bounce in 1994. Back then, policymakers worked quickly and aggressively to restrain the cyclical expansion, particularly the uptick in inflation.\nSomeone at the Fed needs to speak up to save itself from committing a major policy blunder. Institutional rigidities of transparency and predictability are keeping a policy of easy money for longer than is needed. The current approach puts the economy on a course for a hard landing compared to the soft landing the old generation of policymakers engineered in 1995 when faced with a similar scenario in 1994.\n2021 vs. 1994\nThe economy in 2021 has a lot of the same features as in 1994. Both years saw rapid growth and price pressures emerge as headwinds faded. In 2021, the strong rebound reflects the re-opening of the economy helped along with easy money and fiscal stimulus. The catalyst for the rebound in 1994 came from an extended span of easy money and the end of household deleveraging, corporate restructuring, and defense cutbacks.\n2021 rapid growth is faster and broader as it followed a record decline in the prior year. Consensus estimates put Real GDP growth in 2021 in the 6% to 7% range, whereas the increase in 1994 came in at 4%. But the big difference between the two years is inflation.\nCore consumer inflation runs at a 5% annualized rate through the first five months of 2021, whereas inflation peaked at 3% in 1994. Pipeline inflation is more than three times as fast.Core prices for intermediate materials have increased 17% in the past year versus a peak of 5% in 1994.\nThe current generation of policymakers thinks that the supply and demand in the product markets will at some point \"autocorrect.\" That implies pipeline inflation pressures will disappear as companies raise production levels to meet the higher level of demand without causing any disturbances in the economy. Of course, in reality, a single or two product markets can readjust. But, it is naive to think of multiple product markets, and housing and many parts of the service economy can do so simultaneously.\nInstitutional rigidities of transparency and predictability stop policymakers from ending the asset purchase program for housing that everyone agrees is no longer needed. Is that the proper way to conduct monetary policy? Just because policymakers did not tell or inform the financial markets it planned to curtail its asset purchase program, it cannot do so until complete transparency. That makes zero sense.A policy that fuels an unsustainable surge in demand and a rise in house prices that is wrong today will be even more so tomorrow.\nIn 1994, the old generation of policymakers saw strong ordering and material price increases as evidence that companies needed more inventories to protect production schedules. There have already been examples in 2021 in which companies had to curtail production because of a shortage of parts. Subduing final demand was seen as a necessary condition to break and shorten the cyclical uptick in inflation. Thus, in 1994 policymakers lifted official rates for twelve consecutive months, doubling official rates from 3% to 6%. That ratcheting up of official rates brought about a soft landing in 1995.\nThe current policy stance of zero official rates and asset purchases puts the economy on a different course, with a hard landing a much likelier outcome. Someone at the Fed needs to speak up soon as record monetary accommodation is no longer necessary against a backdrop of fast growth and rising price pressure and, in the process, puts the economy on an unsustainable course that will end badly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129279714,"gmtCreate":1624375577738,"gmtModify":1634007030073,"author":{"id":"3567827268544698","authorId":"3567827268544698","name":"HOONGINN","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567827268544698","idStr":"3567827268544698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>[得意] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>[得意] 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","text":"$Adobe(ADBE)$[愤怒]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdaa600a4488e9753c1eca72b15bbfb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167590627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165431879,"gmtCreate":1624154553791,"gmtModify":1634010214228,"author":{"id":"3567827268544698","authorId":"3567827268544698","name":"HOONGINN","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567827268544698","idStr":"3567827268544698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>[难过] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>[难过] 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","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163254235","repostId":"1170150919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170150919","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170150919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170150919","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and finan","content":"<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周三跌至盘中低点，此前美联储上调了通胀预期，并提前了下次加息的时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>11个标普500板块中有9个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重新开放为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、联合航空和达美航空均走高。在Wolfe Research上调评级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华股价均上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在2023年加息，此前该委员会在3月份表示至少在2024年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续称通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。等。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀加剧，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>周三在参议院财政委员会作证的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，从长远来看，更高的价格压力不应持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦表示：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，但我预计这种影响不会是永久性的。”“但我们将继续非常仔细地监测通胀数据，对于长期通胀前景来说，重要的是，我们认为从大多数指标来看，通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周三跌至盘中低点，此前美联储上调了通胀预期，并提前了下次加息的时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>11个标普500板块中有9个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重新开放为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、联合航空和达美航空均走高。在Wolfe Research上调评级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华股价均上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在2023年加息，此前该委员会在3月份表示至少在2024年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续称通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。等。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀加剧，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>周三在参议院财政委员会作证的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，从长远来看，更高的价格压力不应持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦表示：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，但我预计这种影响不会是永久性的。”“但我们将继续非常仔细地监测通胀数据，对于长期通胀前景来说，重要的是，我们认为从大多数指标来看，通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170150919","content_text":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.\nU.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.\nNine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.\nEconomic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.\nThe policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.\nThe Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"\nChairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.\nThe meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. 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","listText":"[你懂的] ","text":"[你懂的]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176871892","repostId":"1182009211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182009211","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626876025,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182009211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182009211","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. \nOn day after sliding below 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 22:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. </p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）加密货币相关股票早盘飙升。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ba84b633e0ac3f409f8c463cd88beb\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ff2661c20fa3335bbd359f86b5e594\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"733\" 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