Kanyon的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Kanyon

Kanyon

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

19关注

17粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-08-29

Wa

Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>

2021-08-30

Wa

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-02

Wa

Virgin Galactic shares rose more than 4% in early trading as launching its first commercial research mission<blockquote>维珍银河股价早盘上涨逾4%，启动首个商业研究任务</blockquote>

2021-10-02

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-26

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-30

Ok

Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>

2021-09-19

Ok

@TigerStars:🐯 Tigers of the Week (Sept 9 - Sept 16)

2021-10-14

$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$Ok

2021-06-21

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-20

Yes

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-25

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-23

Ok

a.k.a. Brands opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price<blockquote>又名Brands开盘价为9.5美元，较IPO价格下跌13.64%</blockquote>

2021-09-08

Hi

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-11-01

Ok

Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>美联储决定、十月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>

2021-09-28

Lo

All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>

2021-10-13

Ok

Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>

2021-09-30

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-18

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-13

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-09

Wa

Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3567979712068924","uuid":"3567979712068924","gmtCreate":1604885689181,"gmtModify":1614824597640,"name":"Kanyon","pinyin":"kanyon","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":17,"headSize":19,"tweetSize":254,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":11,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.43%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.06%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":607509371,"gmtCreate":1639555327688,"gmtModify":1639555327957,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607509371","repostId":"1156446659","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156446659","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639540344,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156446659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601856917,"gmtCreate":1638512955096,"gmtModify":1638512955253,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601856917","repostId":"2188541797","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874042628,"gmtCreate":1637715446792,"gmtModify":1637715446895,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874042628","repostId":"1147742165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872706018,"gmtCreate":1637569897506,"gmtModify":1637569897645,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872706018","repostId":"1133611361","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878647501,"gmtCreate":1637193193321,"gmtModify":1637193193422,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878647501","repostId":"2184547718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871779212,"gmtCreate":1637117039069,"gmtModify":1637117053501,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871779212","repostId":"2184884068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871964021,"gmtCreate":1637020275975,"gmtModify":1637020276085,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😊😊😊😊😊😊😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊","listText":"😊😊😊😊😊😊😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊","text":"😊😊😊😊😊😊😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😝😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871964021","repostId":"2183607933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849187931,"gmtCreate":1635735265747,"gmtModify":1635736684607,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849187931","repostId":"2179250221","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179250221","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635721559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179250221?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 07:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>美联储决定、十月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179250221","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set th","content":"<p><div> The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美联储即将召开的货币政策会议将成为本周的焦点，并可能为期待已久的资产购买缩减公告奠定基础。与此同时，交易者也将...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>美联储决定、十月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>美联储决定、十月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-01 07:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美联储即将召开的货币政策会议将成为本周的焦点，并可能为期待已久的资产购买缩减公告奠定基础。与此同时，交易者也将...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APO":"阿波罗全球管理","CLX":"高乐氏","UBER":"优步","CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ATVI":"动视暴雪","COP":"康菲石油","BLMN":"Bloomin' Brands",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","EL":"雅诗兰黛","RL":"拉夫劳伦","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179250221","content_text":"The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also await more data on the U.S. economic recovery with the Labor Department's monthly jobs report later this week.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) November meeting will take place from Tuesday to Wednesday, with the policy statement and press conference from the meeting serving as the central bank's penultimate opportunity this year to announce formal plans to begin rolling back its crisis-era quantitative easing program. For the past year-and-a-half, the central bank has been purchasing $120 billion per month in agency mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries, as one major tool to support the economy during the pandemic.\nIn late September, the FOMC's latest monetary policy statement and press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank was apt to announce the start of tapering before year-end, and continue the tapering process until \"around the middle of next year.\"\n\"The upcoming FOMC meeting will be important for three reasons: 1) the announcement of tapering; 2) guidance around what tapering means for the path of hikes; and 3) nuanced changes in views around inflation risks given recent data,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note.\n\"The statement that announces the new pace of asset purchases will be followed by a note regarding flexibility stating that asset purchases are not on a pre-set course and will depend on the outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as an assessment of the efficacy of asset purchases,\" she predicted.\nShe noted that Powell may also use the press conference to reiterate that the end of tapering would not necessarily indicate the start of rate hikes, and that both policy actions are distinct. In previous public remarks, Powell has already made a similar point in previous public remarks, saying, \"the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.\"\nGiven the market has been anticipating the start to tapering for months now, speculation around when the Fed will make a move on interest rates has become a point of particular interest to investors. Investors and economists have mulled whether the Fed may need to act more quickly than previously telegraphed on adjusting interest rates to stave off inflation, which has proven more long-lasting than some had suggested.\nWASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 24: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on September 24, 2020 in Washington, DC. Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are testifying about the CARES Act and the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)Drew Angerer via Getty Images\nIn September, core personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rose 3.6% over last year for a fourth consecutive month, coming in at the fastest clip since 1991. And earlier this month, Powell acknowledged in public remarks that the supply chain constraints and shortages that spurred the latest rise in prices are \"likely to last longer than previously expected, likely well into next year.\"\nWhile the central bank will not release an updated Summary of Economic Projections with their policy statement on Wednesday, the latest projections from the September meeting suggested the committee was split on rate hikes for 2022, with nine members seeing no rate hikes by the end of next year while the other nine members saw at least one hike.\n\"I think the Fed has pretty well determined to start the taper pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start it soon thereafter, so that's pretty well carved in stone,\" Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live last week. \"I think the big debate now is how quickly the Fed moves toward actually raising rates. The expectation in the market has really shifted to expecting as many as two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 ... that’s a pretty aggressive pace of tightening.\"\nOctober jobs report\nOne of this week's most closely watched pieces of economic data will be the October jobs report, which is due for release on Friday from the Labor Department.\nEconomists are looking to see a pick-up in the pace of hiring for October after a disappointing print in September, when just 194,000 non-farm payrolls returned versus the half million expected. Over the past two months, payroll gains averaged at just 280,000. The unemployment rate is expected to take another small step toward pre-pandemic levels in October as well, with the jobless rate anticipated to dip to 4.7% from 4.8% the prior month.\nStill, the labor market has still fallen short its pre-pandemic conditions on a number of fronts. The unemployment rate has yet to return to its 50-year low of 3.5% from February 2020. And as of September, the civilian labor force was still down by about 3.1 million individuals from pre-virus levels.\nOne factor weighing on the labor market in August and September was the Delta variant, which may have deterred some workers from seeking employment in person for risk of infection. And an ongoing element dragging on the labor market's recovery has been a mismatch of supply and demand, with employers struggling to fill a near-record number of job openings while voluntary quits jumped to a historically high level.\n\"Next week’s October payrolls report will shed light on whether supply eased on diminishing constraints or if the labor market continues to face headwinds for now,\" wrote Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, in a note last week.\nBut some data from the past couple weeks has reflected favorably on conditions in the labor market in October. Weekly new unemployment claims broke below 300,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic during the survey week for the October jobs report, or the week that includes the 12th of the month. And in the Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index, just 10.6% of consumers said jobs were \"hard to get,\" down from 13.0% in September. That brought the Conference Board's closely watched labor market differential, or percentage of consumers saying jobs are \"hard to get\" subtracted from the percentage saying jobs \"are plentiful,\" to 45, or its highest level since 2000.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Oct. final (59.3 expected, 59.2 in September); Constructing spending, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.0% in August); ISM Manufacturing Index, Oct. (60.5 expected, 61.1 in September)\nTuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Oct. 29 (0.3% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, Oct. (400,000 expected, 568,000 in September); ISM Services Index, October (62.0 expected, 61.9 in September); Factory Orders, September (-0.1% expected, 1.2% in August); Durable goods orders, September final (-0.4% in prior print; Durable goods orders excluding transportation, September final (0.4% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, September final (0.8% in prior print); Markit U.S. Services PMI, October final (58.2 expected, 58.2 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, October final (57.3 in prior print); Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy decision\nThursday: Challenger job cuts, year-over-year, October (-84.9% in September); Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 30 (275,000 expected, 281,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Oct. 23 (2.147 million expected, 2.243 million during prior week); Non-farm productivity, Q3 preliminary (-3.2% expected, 2.1% in Q2); Unit Labor Costs, Q3 preliminary (6.9% expected, 1.3% in Q2); Trade balance, September (-$80.1 billion expected, -$73.3 billion in August)\nFriday: Change in non-farm payrolls, October (450,000 expected, 194,000 in September); Unemployment rate, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, October (4.9% expected, 4.6% in September); Labor Force Participation Rate, October (61.8% expected, 61.6% in September); Consumer Credit, September ($16.200 billion expected, $14.379 million in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Clorox (CLX), Avis Budget Group (CAR), ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI), Chegg Inc. (CHGG), Diamondback Energy (FANG), The Simon Property Group (SPG) after market close\nTuesday: Under Armour (UAA), Estee Lauder (EL), Ralph Lauren (RL), Apollo Global Management (APO), Corsair Gaming (CRSR), Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Pfizer (PFE), Groupon (GPN), Marathon Petroleum (MPC) before market open; Mondelez (MDLZ), T-Mobile (TMUS), Akamai (AKAM), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Lyft (LYFT), Match Group (MTCH), Devon Energy (DVN), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Coursera (COUR), Zillow Group (ZG), Amgen (AMGN) after market close\nWednesday: Humana (HUM), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), The New York Times (NYT), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Marriott International (MAR), CVS Health Corp. (CVS), Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) before market open; Booking Holdings (BKNG), Qorvo (QRVO), The Allstate Corp. (ALL), MGM Resorts International (MGM), $Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ (TTWO), Electronic Arts (EA), Vimeo (VMEO), Etsy (ETSY), GoDaddy (GDDY), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), Roku (ROKU), Qualcomm (QCOM) after market close\nThursday: Cigna (CI), Wayfair (W), ViacomCBS (VIAC), Nikola (NKLA), Duke Energy (DUK), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Hanesbrands (HBI), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Vulcan Material (VMC), Kellogg (K), Square (SQ), Cloudflare (NET), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Uber Technologies (UBER), American International Group (AIG), Shake Shack (SHAK), iHeartMedia (IHRT), Novavax (NVAX), IAC Interactive Corp. (IAC), Peloton (PTON), Dropbox (DBX), DataDog (DDOG), Pinterest (PINS), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Expedia (EXPE), Rocket Cos. (RKT), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Airbnb (ABNB)\nFriday: Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Dish Networks (DISH), Dominion Energy (D), DraftKings (DKNG), Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT), Cinemark Holdings (CNK) before market open","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"COP":0.9,"CRSR":0.9,"APO":0.9,"CLX":0.9,"ATVI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BLMN":0.9,"RL":0.9,"EL":0.9,"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840010732,"gmtCreate":1635567260508,"gmtModify":1635594557354,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840010732","repostId":"2179471352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在这些书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在这些书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825981569,"gmtCreate":1634190241948,"gmtModify":1634190369025,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>Ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>Ok","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$Ok","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b92569790b51c2730c9f7648e88b4763","width":"1125","height":"3714"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825981569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822351338,"gmtCreate":1634094031594,"gmtModify":1634094140440,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822351338","repostId":"1189203328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189203328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634087217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189203328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 09:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189203328","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8,","content":"<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 09:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189203328","content_text":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.\nIt is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829722346,"gmtCreate":1633560636821,"gmtModify":1633560637265,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829722346","repostId":"2173948202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864434107,"gmtCreate":1633137695499,"gmtModify":1633137696027,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3567979712068924\">@Kanyon12</a>:Ok","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3567979712068924\">@Kanyon12</a>:Ok","text":"//@Kanyon12:Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864434107","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864431230,"gmtCreate":1633137278539,"gmtModify":1633137997310,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864431230","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865196325,"gmtCreate":1632959738794,"gmtModify":1632959866907,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865196325","repostId":"2171933449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866271547,"gmtCreate":1632787848589,"gmtModify":1632797591170,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lo","listText":"Lo","text":"Lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866271547","repostId":"1156306273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156306273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156306273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:02","market":"other","language":"en","title":"All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156306273","media":"zerohedge","summary":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which accordi","content":"<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 08:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156306273","content_text":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.\n\nAnd unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at theirhighest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).\nNatural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.\nEurope's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.\nThe Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.\nA post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.\nHauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"\nShifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.\n“We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.\nLuckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.\n“Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.\n\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.\nIf he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.\nOn natural gas, he said prices could shoot upeven morethis winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.\nThe bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.\n“The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.\nLuckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”\nNotably, Luckock said hewas skeptical that Russia,the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.\n“It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866271025,"gmtCreate":1632787833167,"gmtModify":1632797591255,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3567979712068924\">@Kanyon12</a>:Ok","listText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3567979712068924\">@Kanyon12</a>:Ok","text":"Ok//@Kanyon12:Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866271025","repostId":"1156306273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156306273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156306273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:02","market":"other","language":"en","title":"All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156306273","media":"zerohedge","summary":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which accordi","content":"<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 08:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156306273","content_text":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.\n\nAnd unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at theirhighest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).\nNatural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.\nEurope's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.\nThe Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.\nA post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.\nHauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"\nShifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.\n“We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.\nLuckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.\n“Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.\n\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.\nIf he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.\nOn natural gas, he said prices could shoot upeven morethis winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.\nThe bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.\n“The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.\nLuckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”\nNotably, Luckock said hewas skeptical that Russia,the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.\n“It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866273271,"gmtCreate":1632787822093,"gmtModify":1632797591299,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866273271","repostId":"1156306273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156306273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156306273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:02","market":"other","language":"en","title":"All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156306273","media":"zerohedge","summary":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which accordi","content":"<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 08:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156306273","content_text":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.\n\nAnd unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at theirhighest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).\nNatural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.\nEurope's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.\nThe Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.\nA post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.\nHauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"\nShifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.\n“We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.\nLuckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.\n“Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.\n\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.\nIf he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.\nOn natural gas, he said prices could shoot upeven morethis winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.\nThe bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.\n“The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.\nLuckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”\nNotably, Luckock said hewas skeptical that Russia,the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.\n“It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868536647,"gmtCreate":1632669717589,"gmtModify":1632798677407,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868536647","repostId":"2170146216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861450101,"gmtCreate":1632533136603,"gmtModify":1632710608170,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567979712068924","idStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861450101","repostId":"2169615117","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":813630206,"gmtCreate":1630195956105,"gmtModify":1704956819577,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813630206","repostId":"1184130616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184130616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630111537,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184130616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184130616","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Does crime pay?\nAmong the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the head","content":"<p><div> Does crime pay? Among the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？在20世纪90年代和21世纪初占据头条新闻的最有权势的高调企业高管中，伯纳德·埃伯斯从他的同龄人中脱颖而出——身高6英尺4英寸...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 08:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Does crime pay? Among the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？在20世纪90年代和21世纪初占据头条新闻的最有权势的高调企业高管中，伯纳德·埃伯斯从他的同龄人中脱颖而出——身高6英尺4英寸...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HRB":"H&R布洛克税务"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184130616","content_text":"Does crime pay?\nAmong the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 head of WorldCom was dubbed the “telecom cowboy” thanks to his sartorial preference for jeans, cowboy boots and a 10-gallon hat.\nEbbers also stood out from his peers for tightly holding on to Luddite practices as the digital age dawned. He famously refused to communicate with his workforce via email. Even worse, he stood out thanks to a prickly personality that quickly seethed when confronted with unpleasant news. A 2002 profile in The Economist defined him as “parochial, stubborn, preoccupied with penny-pinching … a difficult man to work for.”\nBut ultimately, Ebbers stood out for being at the center of what was (at the time) the largest accounting fraud in U.S. history, which was followed by the harshest prison sentence ever imposed on a corporate executive for financial crimes.\nA Man In Search Of Himself: Bernard John Ebbers was born Aug. 27, 1941, in Edmonton, Alberta, the second of five children. His father John was a traveling salesman and his peripatetic profession brought the family down from Canada into California, where he jettisoned his sales work and became an auto mechanic. The family later relocated to Gallup, New Mexico, where Ebbers’ parents became teachers on the Navajo Nation Indian reservation.\nThe Ebbers clan was back in Canada when Ebbers was a teenager and Bernie (as he was commonly known) came into adulthood unable to determine a course for his life. He attended Canada’s University of Alberta and Michigan’s Calvin College before accepting a basketball scholarship to Mississippi College. But he was the victim of a robbery prior to his senior year that left him seriously injured and switched his attention from playing to coaching the junior varsity team.\nEbbers graduated in 1967 majoring in physical education and minoring in secondary education. He supported himself during his college years by taking on a variety of odd jobs including a bouncer and milk delivery driver. He married his college sweetheart,Linda Pigott,after graduating and landed work teaching science to middle-school students while coaching high school basketball.\nBut Ebbers didn’t stay very long in the school system. When his wife received a job offer as a teacher in another Mississippi town, the couple relocated and he found work managing a garment factory warehouse. By 1974, he tired of working for others and responded to a newspaper advertisement seeking a buyer for a motel in Columbia, Mississippi.\nEbbers’ approach to running a hospitality establishment sometimes bordered on the eccentric. He would distribute bathroom towels at the front desk and require guests to return them to avoid being charged for taking them. Nonetheless, he found a niche in hospitality management and by the early 1980s he owned and operated eight motels within Mississippi and Texas; he also picked up a car dealership that also proved profitable.\nCalling Out Around The World:Ebbers might have remained in the Mississippi hospitality industry had it not been for the 1982 breakup ofAT&T Inc.'s T 0.41%monopoly on the U.S. telephone system. This created a seismic shift in the telecommunications world by enabling other companies to begin reselling long-distance telephone services.\nIn 1983, Ebbers and three friends met at a diner in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, to consider the feasibility of pursuing this newly opened opportunity. Ebbers theorized that having control of his long-distance calling services could benefit his motel business. In the days before mobile phones, guests in lodging establishments in need of long-distance calling would either have to feed handfuls of quarters into payphones or make calls from their rooms, which usually came with extra fees.\nEbbers and his pals decided to get into the telecommunications business with Long Distance Discount Services, which they established in 1985 with headquarters in Jackson, Mississippi, with Ebbers as CEO.\nCarl J. Aycock,a Mississippi financial advisor who was among the early investors in LDDS, would later laugh at the unlikelihood of Ebbers running a telecom company.\n“The only experience Bernie had before operating a long-distance company was he used the phone,” Aycock quipped in a 1997 interview.\nMaybe Ebbers did not possess an encyclopedic knowledge of telecommunications technology, but the good fortune he enjoyed in the motel business transitioned to this unlikely setting. Within four years of its launch, LDDS was being publicly traded.\nWithin 10 years of its opening, LDDS took on an almost Pac Man-style persona of gobbling up telecom firms in sight of the company, acquiring more than 60 different telecommunications company. By 1995, the company renamed itself LDDS WorldCom.\nMany of the company’s acquisitions were on the small side, and the company was never considered a major player in the telecom industry until its $720 million acquisition of Advanced Telecommunications Corporation in 1992.\nThe unlikely acquisition came with Ebbers’ ability to outbid industry titans AT&T and Sprint Corporation,both considerably larger players in this field.\nThe one unfortunate development during this time was the end of Ebbers’ marriage in 1997. He remarried in 1999 to Kristie Webb.\nIn February 1998, Ebbers’ company launched its acquisition plans for CompuServe from H&R Block Inc.\nThis transaction was followed by an astonishing spin of assets: LDDS sold the CompuServe Information Service portion of its acquisition toAmerica Online,while retaining the CompuServe Network Services portion of the business. AOL simultaneously sold LDDS WorldCom its networking division, Advanced Network Services.\nIn September 1998, LDDS WorldCom sealed a $37 billion union with MCI Communications,which created the largest corporate merger in U.S. history. The combined entity became MCI WorldCom, and for Ebbers it seemed that the sky was the limit — except that Ebbers’ ability to soar in the corporate skies resulted in an Icarus-worthy predicament.\nA Little Out Of Touch:One year after the CompuServe and MCI deals, Ebbers’ company boasted an 80,000-person workforce, a market capitalization of roughly $185 billion and its shares were trading at a peak of nearly $62.\nAt the peak of the company’s success, Ebbers granted an interview to The New York Times aboard his 130-yacht, which he berthed in the resort town of Hilton Head, South Carolina. He claimed that the secret of his success was “not as complicated as people make it out to be,” adding that he surrounded himself with experts who advised him on which moves to make.\n“I’m not an engineer by training,” he said. “I’m not an accountant by training. I’m the coach. I’m not the point guard who shoots the ball.”\nBut as the company grew larger, Ebbers penny-pinching behavior during his early motel management days became more extreme. WorldCom executives would later complain that Ebbers stopped providing free coffee within their offices and directed security guards fill the water coolers with tap water.\nAnd for the head of a telecommunications company, Ebbers was curiously distrustful of cutting-edge tech developments. He refused to communicate via email and would not carry a pager or a cell phone. He would explain his actions internally by repeating “That’s the way we did it at LDDS,” and in a 1997 Business Week interview about this behavior he claimed that “when you come to the table with a (physical education) degree like I do, you don't know a lot about the technical stuff.”\nWhile Ebbers’ arms-length distance from personal technology could have been attributed to a zany quirk, there was another problem that couldn’t be happily shrugged away. As the company expanded, operational problems began to permeate the multiple divisions. Ebbers would become impatient or worse when confronted with problems, to the point that he would angrily demand that he only wanted to be addressed with good news.\nIn retrospect, Ebbers’ refusal to acknowledge that his company was growing too fast and too large proved to be a fatal flaw, especially when the corporate culture began to manufacture good news in lieu of reporting problems. As a result, Ebbers’ XL-sized business empire was sustained by taking on massive amounts of debt and highly improper accounting.\nDetour Off The Cliff:The first cracks in this corporate story began in October 1999 when MCI WorldCom — which had become the second-largest long-distance telephone company in the country — announced a $129 billion merger with Sprint, the third-largest telecom carrier. Within nine months of this announcement, the merger was canceled in the face of pressure from U.S. and European regulators who feared a telecom monopoly would be born from this union. MCI WorldCom walked away from the failure by renaming itself as WorldCom.\nWith the rise of the new millennium came the fall of the dot-com industry, and almost any company that had a tech-related aspect found itself taking a financial tumble. When Ebbers’ company tried to cut corners and save money, it turned into an act of self-immolation.\nWorldcom’s network systems engineering division exhausted its annual capital expenditures budget by November 2000, with a senior manager ordering a halt to processing payments for network systems vendors and suppliers until the beginning of 2001.\nThe company’s chief technical officer,Fred Briggs,then ordered all of the labor associated with the capital projects in the network systems division to be booked as an expense rather than a capital project — and his directive was shared with other divisions in the company.\nA WorldCom budget analyst named Kim Amighin the company’s Richardson, Texas, office recognized the legal ramifications of intentionally mischaracterizing capital expenses and lodged a protest against the order. The directive was canceled and so was Amigh — three months after his action, Amigh was abruptly laid off from the company.\nBut Vice President of Internal Audit Cynthia Cooper learned of Amigh’s findings and picked up his trail. Her department began combing through WorldCom’s accounts and found $2 billion that the company claimed in its public filings was spent on capital expenditures during the first three quarters of 2001 — except that the funds were never authorized for that purpose and were clearly operating costs moved into the capital expenditure accounting as a way to make WorldCom look more profitable.\nCooper could not find anyone in the WorldCom leadership ranks to explain the $2 billion discrepancy. Most executives said it was a “prepaid capacity,” a meaningless term which they couldn’t define when pressed by Cooper.\nAnd Cooper was not alone in her suspicions. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could not fathom how WorldCom continued to claim robust profits during the dot-com period while its competitors were operating at a loss, and it sent forth a “Request for Information” to learn the secret of its success.\nAdding to this chaos were Ebbers’ personal financial woes, which became exacerbated during to dot-com crisis by margin calls on his WorldCom shares, which were tanking as the economy plummeted into a recession.\nTo alleviate his monetary pain, Ebbers borrowed $50 million from WorldCom in September 2000 — and then borrowed again and again. By April 2002, Ebbers was $400 million in debt to WorldCom and the board of directors demanded his resignation, which he provided.\nIn June 2002, WorldCom acknowledged its earnings reports contained $3.9 billion in accounting misstatements, with the figure later adjusted to $11 billion. In July 2002, the company declared bankruptcy and was delisted from public trading. Also during that month, Ebbers was called before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services to explain what happened. He pleaded the Fifth Amendment.\nRoad’s End:The efforts to bring Ebbers to trial got off to a weird start when the State of Oklahoma jumped the gun with a 15-count indictment, only to drop its charges in favor of federal prosecution.\nEbbers was indicted in May 2004 on seven counts of filing false statements with securities regulators plus one count each of conspiracy and securities fraud. Ebbers agreed to testify on his behalf, which many observers later considered to be a major mistake because he came across as evasive and unconvincing when insisting WorldCom’s downfall was solely the fault of his subordinates and that he was ignorant about how his company worked.\n“I know what I don’t know,” Ebbers said during his trial. “To this day, I don’t know technology, and I don’t know finance or accounting.”\nEbbers was found guilty on all counts and was sentenced to 25 years in prison, the longest sentence ever handed down in U.S. history for a financial fraud case against a corporate executive.\nHe remained free on bail while fighting to overturn the verdict, but the conviction was upheld in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in July 2006. Two months later, he drove himself in his luxury Mercedes-Benz to a low-security Louisiana prison to begin his sentence. Two years later, his wife Kristie successfully filed for divorce.\nAfter 13 years behind bars, Ebbers was granted a compassionate release on Dec. 21, 2019, due to a deteriorating state of health that included macular degeneration that left him legally blind, anemia, a weakened heart condition and the beginnings of dementia. He returned to his home in Brookhaven, Mississippi, and passed away on Feb. 2, 2020.\nIn defining his rise to the top, Ebbers harkened back to his basketball days by insisting, “The coach's job is to get the best players and get them to play together.” But in explaining his fall from grace, Ebbers forgot that the core of coaching is accepting responsibility for the team’s performance and he blamed his “best players” for not being able to “play together” while absolving himself from their errors.\nSaid Ebbers when confronted with his ultimate failure as the corporate equivalent of a coach: “I didn't have anything to apologize for.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HRB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811076998,"gmtCreate":1630281213814,"gmtModify":1704957658087,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811076998","repostId":"1113860468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812580832,"gmtCreate":1630594343926,"gmtModify":1631892309125,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812580832","repostId":"1181381939","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181381939","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630593846,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181381939?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic shares rose more than 4% in early trading as launching its first commercial research mission<blockquote>维珍银河股价早盘上涨逾4%，启动首个商业研究任务</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181381939","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Virgin Galactic shares rose more than 4% in early trading as launching its first commercial research","content":"<p>Virgin&nbsp;Galactic&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;launching its first commercial research mission.</p><p><blockquote>由于启动了首个商业研究任务，维珍银河股价早盘上涨超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d64190bbae434b9d30637c02711102\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is launching its first commercial research mission named “Unity 23” along with the Italian Air Force to the edge of space, it said on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河控股公司周四表示，将与意大利空军一起向太空边缘发射首个名为“Unity 23”的商业研究任务。</blockquote></p><p> The space travel company has set late September or early October as the time for the mission that will carry three paying crew members from the Air Force and the Rome-based government agency National Research Council.</p><p><blockquote>这家太空旅行公司已将9月底或10月初定为执行任务的时间，该任务将搭载来自空军和总部位于罗马的政府机构国家研究委员会的三名付费机组人员。</blockquote></p><p> The crew will study the effect on the human body as they move from gravity to a low-gravity atmosphere and provide insights for future spaceflight systems and technologies.</p><p><blockquote>机组人员将研究从重力环境转移到低重力环境时对人体的影响，并为未来的航天系统和技术提供见解。</blockquote></p><p> The mission follows a successful first crewed test flight to space by Virgin Galactic’s passenger rocket in July.</p><p><blockquote>此前，维珍银河的客运火箭于7月成功进行了首次载人太空试飞。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic shares rose more than 4% in early trading as launching its first commercial research mission<blockquote>维珍银河股价早盘上涨逾4%，启动首个商业研究任务</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic shares rose more than 4% in early trading as launching its first commercial research mission<blockquote>维珍银河股价早盘上涨逾4%，启动首个商业研究任务</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 22:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Virgin&nbsp;Galactic&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;launching its first commercial research mission.</p><p><blockquote>由于启动了首个商业研究任务，维珍银河股价早盘上涨超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d64190bbae434b9d30637c02711102\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is launching its first commercial research mission named “Unity 23” along with the Italian Air Force to the edge of space, it said on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河控股公司周四表示，将与意大利空军一起向太空边缘发射首个名为“Unity 23”的商业研究任务。</blockquote></p><p> The space travel company has set late September or early October as the time for the mission that will carry three paying crew members from the Air Force and the Rome-based government agency National Research Council.</p><p><blockquote>这家太空旅行公司已将9月底或10月初定为执行任务的时间，该任务将搭载来自空军和总部位于罗马的政府机构国家研究委员会的三名付费机组人员。</blockquote></p><p> The crew will study the effect on the human body as they move from gravity to a low-gravity atmosphere and provide insights for future spaceflight systems and technologies.</p><p><blockquote>机组人员将研究从重力环境转移到低重力环境时对人体的影响，并为未来的航天系统和技术提供见解。</blockquote></p><p> The mission follows a successful first crewed test flight to space by Virgin Galactic’s passenger rocket in July.</p><p><blockquote>此前，维珍银河的客运火箭于7月成功进行了首次载人太空试飞。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181381939","content_text":"Virgin Galactic shares rose more than 4% in early trading as launching its first commercial research mission.\nVirgin Galactic Holdings Inc is launching its first commercial research mission named “Unity 23” along with the Italian Air Force to the edge of space, it said on Thursday.\nThe space travel company has set late September or early October as the time for the mission that will carry three paying crew members from the Air Force and the Rome-based government agency National Research Council.\nThe crew will study the effect on the human body as they move from gravity to a low-gravity atmosphere and provide insights for future spaceflight systems and technologies.\nThe mission follows a successful first crewed test flight to space by Virgin Galactic’s passenger rocket in July.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864431230,"gmtCreate":1633137278539,"gmtModify":1633137997310,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864431230","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868536647,"gmtCreate":1632669717589,"gmtModify":1632798677407,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868536647","repostId":"2170146216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840010732,"gmtCreate":1635567260508,"gmtModify":1635594557354,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840010732","repostId":"2179471352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在这些书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在这些书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887603512,"gmtCreate":1632022748736,"gmtModify":1632803277783,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887603512","repostId":"885869190","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":885869190,"gmtCreate":1631776984206,"gmtModify":1631952340013,"author":{"id":"9000000000000149","authorId":"9000000000000149","name":"TigerStars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b93d50cf0df54ce7b1b746f78db36c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000149","authorIdStr":"9000000000000149"},"themes":[],"title":"🐯 Tigers of the Week (Sept 9 - Sept 16)","htmlText":"Roarrr!!! Dear&nbsp;Tigers,&nbsp;🐯 Welcome to our column:&nbsp;Tigers of the Week!&nbsp;🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 This column is designed to stimulate more tigers to actively participate in our discussion, improve together, and be rich rich, to eventually create a harmonious community! We have noticed that many tigers are very proactive in sharing knowledge, opinions,&nbsp;and trading insights with others. Therefore, in this column, we will select🔥 the most active and popular users every week&nbsp;🔥 and&nbsp;give them rewards to show our appreciation! About the Rewards: Tigers who are the most active in posting, commenting, and liking&nbsp;will be given 1,000 Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰respectively! Tigers who receive the most comments plus likes will be given 1,000(top3) to&nbsp;500(top4-10)&nbsp;Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰eac","listText":"Roarrr!!! Dear&nbsp;Tigers,&nbsp;🐯 Welcome to our column:&nbsp;Tigers of the Week!&nbsp;🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 This column is designed to stimulate more tigers to actively participate in our discussion, improve together, and be rich rich, to eventually create a harmonious community! We have noticed that many tigers are very proactive in sharing knowledge, opinions,&nbsp;and trading insights with others. Therefore, in this column, we will select🔥 the most active and popular users every week&nbsp;🔥 and&nbsp;give them rewards to show our appreciation! About the Rewards: Tigers who are the most active in posting, commenting, and liking&nbsp;will be given 1,000 Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰respectively! Tigers who receive the most comments plus likes will be given 1,000(top3) to&nbsp;500(top4-10)&nbsp;Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰eac","text":"Roarrr!!! Dear Tigers, 🐯 Welcome to our column: Tigers of the Week! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 This column is designed to stimulate more tigers to actively participate in our discussion, improve together, and be rich rich, to eventually create a harmonious community! We have noticed that many tigers are very proactive in sharing knowledge, opinions, and trading insights with others. Therefore, in this column, we will select🔥 the most active and popular users every week 🔥 and give them rewards to show our appreciation! About the Rewards: Tigers who are the most active in posting, commenting, and liking will be given 1,000 Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰respectively! Tigers who receive the most comments plus likes will be given 1,000(top3) to 500(top4-10) Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰eac","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed308d418b83251b086c92797a2ee1c","width":"1125","height":"3198"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885869190","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":825981569,"gmtCreate":1634190241948,"gmtModify":1634190369025,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>Ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>Ok","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$Ok","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b92569790b51c2730c9f7648e88b4763","width":"1125","height":"3714"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825981569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164566605,"gmtCreate":1624230376907,"gmtModify":1634009364880,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164566605","repostId":"1103331073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164957011,"gmtCreate":1624168002133,"gmtModify":1634009874753,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164957011","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":861450101,"gmtCreate":1632533136603,"gmtModify":1632710608170,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861450101","repostId":"2169615117","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863046253,"gmtCreate":1632349208672,"gmtModify":1632801117946,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863046253","repostId":"1154932699","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154932699","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632321484,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154932699?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"a.k.a. Brands opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price<blockquote>又名Brands开盘价为9.5美元，较IPO价格下跌13.64%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154932699","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 22) a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price.\n\nCompan","content":"<p>(Sept 22)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AKA\">a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.</a> </b>opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月22日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AKA\">又名品牌控股公司。</a></b>开盘价为9.5美元，较IPO价格下跌13.64%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2655ceafc9d04ddedb23eed6e4de700b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company &amp; Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司与技术</b></blockquote></p><p> San Francisco, California-based a.k.a. Brands was founded to develop a portfolio of digitally-focused, DTC consumer apparel and fashion brands with a global reach.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山的A.K.A.Brands成立的目的是开发一系列以数字为重点、覆盖全球的DTC消费服装和时尚品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by Chief Executive Officer Jill Ramsey, who has been with the firm since May 2020 and was previously Chief Product and Digital Revenue Officer at Macy's.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由首席执行官吉尔·拉姆齐(Jill Ramsey)领导，她自2020年5月以来一直在该公司工作，此前曾担任梅西百货首席产品和数字收入官。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offerings include:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的主要产品包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Princess Polly</li>  <li>Culture Kings</li>  <li>Petal &amp; Pup</li>  <li>Rebdolls</li> </ul> Below is the a.k.a. platform as it currently stands:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>波莉公主</li><li>文化之王</li><li>花瓣和小狗</li><li>Rebdolls</li></ul>以下是目前的又名平台：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ce425ad6f03482b7316d1970a64a8e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1058\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">a.k.a. Brands has received at least $330 million in equity investment from investors including New Excelerate, Beard Entities and Bryett Enterprises Trust.</p><p><blockquote>又名Brands已从New Excelerate、Beard Entities和Bryett Enterprises Trust等投资者那里获得了至少3.3亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The company focuses its marketing efforts on Millennials and Gen Z consumers who 'seek fashion inspiration on social media and primarily shop online and via mobile devices.'</p><p><blockquote>该公司的营销重点是千禧一代和Z世代消费者，他们“在社交媒体上寻求时尚灵感，主要通过在线和移动设备购物”。</blockquote></p><p> So, a.k.a. leverages its data to provide relevant social content and make other digital marketing strategy efforts to reach consumers directly online.</p><p><blockquote>因此，a.k.a.利用其数据提供相关的社交内容，并采取其他数字营销策略，直接在线接触消费者。</blockquote></p><p> Selling expenses as a percentage of total revenue have risen as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>销售费用占总收入的百分比随着收入的增加而增加，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09de0dff45009ec1618d62f05ee32627\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Selling efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Selling spend, was stable in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>销售效率定义为每美元销售支出产生多少美元的额外新收入，在最近的报告期内保持稳定，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce88e3f54fea202f724c03c0a3157be\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For a.k.a.’s largest property, Princess Polly, user engagement measured by average number of pages per visit on that website has remained relatively flat over the last two years, with a recent slight increase to a current blended average desktop/mobile of 7.28 pages per visit, as the chart shows below:</p><p><blockquote>对于a.k.a.最大的酒店Princess Polly，以该网站每次访问的平均页面数衡量的用户参与度在过去两年中保持相对平稳，最近略有增加，目前桌面/移动平均每次访问7.28页，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8faa1fea511d6ca9aedc0d4323baa69b\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source:Similarweb)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：Similarweb）</blockquote></p><p> According to a marketresearch reportby BlueCart, the global market for DTC (direct-to-consumer) sales is expected to reach $20 billion globally in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据BlueCart的市场研究报告，预计2021年全球DTC（直接面向消费者）销售市场将达到200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast potential increase of 15% over results in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着预计比2020年的业绩潜在增长15%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are an increase in consumer openness to hearing directly from manufacturers via online channels.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是消费者对通过在线渠道直接听取制造商意见的开放程度增加。</blockquote></p><p> Also, there is a growing desire by businesses to gain an edge through greater data-driven insights stemming from direct relationships with their customers rather than working through 3rd party distributors and retail outlets.</p><p><blockquote>此外，企业越来越希望通过与客户的直接关系而不是通过第三方分销商和零售店的更大数据驱动的洞察力来获得优势。</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants by type include:</p><p><blockquote>按类型划分的主要竞争或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ecommerce companies</li>  <li>In-person stores</li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电子商务公司</li><li>实体店</li></ul><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> a.k.a. Brands’ recent financial results can be summarized as follows (includes 55% stake in Culture Kings Group):</p><p><blockquote>A.K.A.Brands最近的财务业绩可总结如下（包括文化王集团55%的股权）：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sharply growing topline revenue</li>  <li>Growing gross profit</li>  <li>Increasing gross margin</li>  <li>Uneven operating profit and margin</li>  <li>Variable cash flow from operations</li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收急剧增长</li><li>毛利增长</li><li>毛利率上升</li><li>营业利润和利润率参差不齐</li><li>经营活动产生的可变现金流量</li></ul>以下是来自公司注册声明的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4b8f665d53cacb759e02e61c0e0fac\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f24f3b6311e665efae356978c984a91\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeba7aa58d9c2188ca35f7d3ddbfd57a\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As of June 30, 2021, a.k.a. Brands had $34.3 million in cash and $277.8 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，A.K.A.Brands拥有3430万美元现金和2.778亿美元总负债。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $28.7 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内的自由现金流为2870万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO详情</b></blockquote></p><p> AKA intends to sell 13.9 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $18.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $250 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.</p><p><blockquote>AKA打算以每股18.00美元的拟议中中间价出售1390万股普通股，总收益约为2.5亿美元，不包括出售惯常承销商期权。</blockquote></p><p> No existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares at the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>没有现有股东表示有兴趣以IPO价格购买股票。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex- underwriter options) would approximate $2.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设在拟议价格范围的中点成功IPO，该公司IPO时的企业价值（前承销商期权）将约为23亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 10.72%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>排除承销商期权和私募股份或限制性股票（如有）的影响，流通股与流通股的比率约为10.72%。低于10%的数字通常被认为是“低流通量”股票，可能会受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Per the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows (in conjunction with a planned new senior secured credit facility):</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司最新的监管文件，它计划将净收益用于以下用途（结合计划中的新高级担保信贷安排）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b37cb842c1d92125dec5e45108e3378\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（资料来源）</blockquote></p><p> Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p><p><blockquote>管理层对公司路演的介绍可在此处获取。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding outstanding legal proceedings, management believes that any legal claims against it would not be material to its operations or financial condition.</p><p><blockquote>就尚未了结的法律诉讼而言，管理层相信任何针对其的法律申索对其营运或财务状况并不重大。</blockquote></p><p> Listed bookrunners of the IPO are BofA Securities, Credit Suisse, Jefferies and other investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>此次IPO的上市账簿管理人为美银证券、瑞士信贷、杰富瑞等投行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:</p><p><blockquote>下表列出了该公司IPO时的相关资本化和估值指标，不包括承销商期权的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83589d7d85d1719f3237ee2bc10b5d23\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> AKA is going public to pay down debt and for its future expansion plans.</p><p><blockquote>AKA将上市以偿还债务和未来的扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> AKS’ financials show sharply growing topline revenue and gross profit, increasing gross margin but uneven operating profit and margin and variable cash flow from operations</p><p><blockquote>AKS的财务数据显示，营收和毛利润大幅增长，毛利率有所提高，但营业利润和利润率参差不齐，运营现金流也不稳定</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $28.7 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流为2870万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Selling expenses as a percentage of total revenue have risen as revenue has increased and its Selling efficiency rate was stable at an impressive 2.3x.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加，销售费用占总收入的百分比也有所上升，其销售效率稳定在令人印象深刻的2.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for selling fashionable clothing direct to consumer [DTC] aimed at younger demographics is large and expected to grow substantially in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>针对年轻人群直接向消费者销售时尚服装[DTC]的市场机会很大，预计在未来几年将大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Being a mobile-first DTC firm, AKA is well-positioned to adjust to a market that is focused on using online, mobile-phone app purchase modalities.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家移动优先的DTC公司，AKA处于有利地位，可以适应专注于使用在线手机应用程序购买模式的市场。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 11.5% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>美银证券是主承销商，该公司在过去12个月内牵头的IPO自IPO以来的平均回报率为11.5%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中等表现。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to the company’s outlook is the high rate of change in consumer tastes and preferences, which can make it challenging and costly to react to changes in a compressed time period.</p><p><blockquote>该公司前景的主要风险是消费者品味和偏好的高变化率，这可能会使在压缩的时间内对变化做出反应变得具有挑战性且成本高昂。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared toa basketof publicly held Apparel companies complied by noted valuation expert Dr. Aswath Damodaran which as of January 2021 had an average EV/Sales multiple of 2.03x, AKA is seeking an EV/Revenue multiple of 5.03x.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与著名估值专家Aswath Damodaran博士编制的一篮子上市服装公司相比，截至2021年1月，其平均EV/销售倍数为2.03倍，AKA正在寻求5.03倍的EV/收入倍数。</blockquote></p><p> AKA is growing topline revenue sharply, in part due to its acquisition activities but its operating margin was 4.6% in the most recent six-month period versus the public basket of an average of 5.93%.</p><p><blockquote>AKA的营收大幅增长，部分原因是其收购活动，但其最近六个月的营业利润率为4.6%，而公共篮子的平均营业利润率为5.93%。</blockquote></p><p> So AKA is growing quickly through acquisition but has a lower operating margin than its public peers.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AKA通过收购快速增长，但营业利润率低于上市同行。</blockquote></p><p> However, I favor DTC companies for things like apparel, as the firm can adjust its offering much faster and more accurately as a result of its direct relationship with customers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我更喜欢服装等领域的DTC公司，因为由于与客户的直接关系，该公司可以更快、更准确地调整其产品。</blockquote></p><p> Also, AKA’s mobile-first approach combined with DTC business model also positions the firm well for its target demographic of younger consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，AKA的移动优先方法与DTC商业模式相结合，也使该公司在年轻消费者的目标人群中处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p> Although the IPO isn’t cheap, I believe AKA has significant room to grow and continue executing its business model approach, so the IPO is worth consideration.</p><p><blockquote>尽管IPO并不便宜，但我相信AKA有很大的增长空间并继续执行其商业模式方法，因此IPO值得考虑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>a.k.a. Brands opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price<blockquote>又名Brands开盘价为9.5美元，较IPO价格下跌13.64%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\na.k.a. Brands opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price<blockquote>又名Brands开盘价为9.5美元，较IPO价格下跌13.64%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-22 22:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 22)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AKA\">a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.</a> </b>opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月22日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AKA\">又名品牌控股公司。</a></b>开盘价为9.5美元，较IPO价格下跌13.64%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2655ceafc9d04ddedb23eed6e4de700b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company &amp; Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司与技术</b></blockquote></p><p> San Francisco, California-based a.k.a. Brands was founded to develop a portfolio of digitally-focused, DTC consumer apparel and fashion brands with a global reach.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山的A.K.A.Brands成立的目的是开发一系列以数字为重点、覆盖全球的DTC消费服装和时尚品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by Chief Executive Officer Jill Ramsey, who has been with the firm since May 2020 and was previously Chief Product and Digital Revenue Officer at Macy's.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由首席执行官吉尔·拉姆齐(Jill Ramsey)领导，她自2020年5月以来一直在该公司工作，此前曾担任梅西百货首席产品和数字收入官。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offerings include:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的主要产品包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Princess Polly</li>  <li>Culture Kings</li>  <li>Petal &amp; Pup</li>  <li>Rebdolls</li> </ul> Below is the a.k.a. platform as it currently stands:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>波莉公主</li><li>文化之王</li><li>花瓣和小狗</li><li>Rebdolls</li></ul>以下是目前的又名平台：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ce425ad6f03482b7316d1970a64a8e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1058\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">a.k.a. Brands has received at least $330 million in equity investment from investors including New Excelerate, Beard Entities and Bryett Enterprises Trust.</p><p><blockquote>又名Brands已从New Excelerate、Beard Entities和Bryett Enterprises Trust等投资者那里获得了至少3.3亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The company focuses its marketing efforts on Millennials and Gen Z consumers who 'seek fashion inspiration on social media and primarily shop online and via mobile devices.'</p><p><blockquote>该公司的营销重点是千禧一代和Z世代消费者，他们“在社交媒体上寻求时尚灵感，主要通过在线和移动设备购物”。</blockquote></p><p> So, a.k.a. leverages its data to provide relevant social content and make other digital marketing strategy efforts to reach consumers directly online.</p><p><blockquote>因此，a.k.a.利用其数据提供相关的社交内容，并采取其他数字营销策略，直接在线接触消费者。</blockquote></p><p> Selling expenses as a percentage of total revenue have risen as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>销售费用占总收入的百分比随着收入的增加而增加，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09de0dff45009ec1618d62f05ee32627\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Selling efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Selling spend, was stable in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>销售效率定义为每美元销售支出产生多少美元的额外新收入，在最近的报告期内保持稳定，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce88e3f54fea202f724c03c0a3157be\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For a.k.a.’s largest property, Princess Polly, user engagement measured by average number of pages per visit on that website has remained relatively flat over the last two years, with a recent slight increase to a current blended average desktop/mobile of 7.28 pages per visit, as the chart shows below:</p><p><blockquote>对于a.k.a.最大的酒店Princess Polly，以该网站每次访问的平均页面数衡量的用户参与度在过去两年中保持相对平稳，最近略有增加，目前桌面/移动平均每次访问7.28页，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8faa1fea511d6ca9aedc0d4323baa69b\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source:Similarweb)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：Similarweb）</blockquote></p><p> According to a marketresearch reportby BlueCart, the global market for DTC (direct-to-consumer) sales is expected to reach $20 billion globally in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据BlueCart的市场研究报告，预计2021年全球DTC（直接面向消费者）销售市场将达到200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast potential increase of 15% over results in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着预计比2020年的业绩潜在增长15%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are an increase in consumer openness to hearing directly from manufacturers via online channels.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是消费者对通过在线渠道直接听取制造商意见的开放程度增加。</blockquote></p><p> Also, there is a growing desire by businesses to gain an edge through greater data-driven insights stemming from direct relationships with their customers rather than working through 3rd party distributors and retail outlets.</p><p><blockquote>此外，企业越来越希望通过与客户的直接关系而不是通过第三方分销商和零售店的更大数据驱动的洞察力来获得优势。</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants by type include:</p><p><blockquote>按类型划分的主要竞争或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ecommerce companies</li>  <li>In-person stores</li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电子商务公司</li><li>实体店</li></ul><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> a.k.a. Brands’ recent financial results can be summarized as follows (includes 55% stake in Culture Kings Group):</p><p><blockquote>A.K.A.Brands最近的财务业绩可总结如下（包括文化王集团55%的股权）：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sharply growing topline revenue</li>  <li>Growing gross profit</li>  <li>Increasing gross margin</li>  <li>Uneven operating profit and margin</li>  <li>Variable cash flow from operations</li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收急剧增长</li><li>毛利增长</li><li>毛利率上升</li><li>营业利润和利润率参差不齐</li><li>经营活动产生的可变现金流量</li></ul>以下是来自公司注册声明的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4b8f665d53cacb759e02e61c0e0fac\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f24f3b6311e665efae356978c984a91\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeba7aa58d9c2188ca35f7d3ddbfd57a\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As of June 30, 2021, a.k.a. Brands had $34.3 million in cash and $277.8 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，A.K.A.Brands拥有3430万美元现金和2.778亿美元总负债。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $28.7 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内的自由现金流为2870万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO详情</b></blockquote></p><p> AKA intends to sell 13.9 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $18.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $250 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.</p><p><blockquote>AKA打算以每股18.00美元的拟议中中间价出售1390万股普通股，总收益约为2.5亿美元，不包括出售惯常承销商期权。</blockquote></p><p> No existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares at the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>没有现有股东表示有兴趣以IPO价格购买股票。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex- underwriter options) would approximate $2.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设在拟议价格范围的中点成功IPO，该公司IPO时的企业价值（前承销商期权）将约为23亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 10.72%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>排除承销商期权和私募股份或限制性股票（如有）的影响，流通股与流通股的比率约为10.72%。低于10%的数字通常被认为是“低流通量”股票，可能会受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Per the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows (in conjunction with a planned new senior secured credit facility):</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司最新的监管文件，它计划将净收益用于以下用途（结合计划中的新高级担保信贷安排）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b37cb842c1d92125dec5e45108e3378\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（资料来源）</blockquote></p><p> Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p><p><blockquote>管理层对公司路演的介绍可在此处获取。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding outstanding legal proceedings, management believes that any legal claims against it would not be material to its operations or financial condition.</p><p><blockquote>就尚未了结的法律诉讼而言，管理层相信任何针对其的法律申索对其营运或财务状况并不重大。</blockquote></p><p> Listed bookrunners of the IPO are BofA Securities, Credit Suisse, Jefferies and other investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>此次IPO的上市账簿管理人为美银证券、瑞士信贷、杰富瑞等投行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:</p><p><blockquote>下表列出了该公司IPO时的相关资本化和估值指标，不包括承销商期权的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83589d7d85d1719f3237ee2bc10b5d23\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> AKA is going public to pay down debt and for its future expansion plans.</p><p><blockquote>AKA将上市以偿还债务和未来的扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> AKS’ financials show sharply growing topline revenue and gross profit, increasing gross margin but uneven operating profit and margin and variable cash flow from operations</p><p><blockquote>AKS的财务数据显示，营收和毛利润大幅增长，毛利率有所提高，但营业利润和利润率参差不齐，运营现金流也不稳定</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $28.7 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流为2870万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Selling expenses as a percentage of total revenue have risen as revenue has increased and its Selling efficiency rate was stable at an impressive 2.3x.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加，销售费用占总收入的百分比也有所上升，其销售效率稳定在令人印象深刻的2.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for selling fashionable clothing direct to consumer [DTC] aimed at younger demographics is large and expected to grow substantially in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>针对年轻人群直接向消费者销售时尚服装[DTC]的市场机会很大，预计在未来几年将大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Being a mobile-first DTC firm, AKA is well-positioned to adjust to a market that is focused on using online, mobile-phone app purchase modalities.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家移动优先的DTC公司，AKA处于有利地位，可以适应专注于使用在线手机应用程序购买模式的市场。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 11.5% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>美银证券是主承销商，该公司在过去12个月内牵头的IPO自IPO以来的平均回报率为11.5%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中等表现。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to the company’s outlook is the high rate of change in consumer tastes and preferences, which can make it challenging and costly to react to changes in a compressed time period.</p><p><blockquote>该公司前景的主要风险是消费者品味和偏好的高变化率，这可能会使在压缩的时间内对变化做出反应变得具有挑战性且成本高昂。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared toa basketof publicly held Apparel companies complied by noted valuation expert Dr. Aswath Damodaran which as of January 2021 had an average EV/Sales multiple of 2.03x, AKA is seeking an EV/Revenue multiple of 5.03x.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与著名估值专家Aswath Damodaran博士编制的一篮子上市服装公司相比，截至2021年1月，其平均EV/销售倍数为2.03倍，AKA正在寻求5.03倍的EV/收入倍数。</blockquote></p><p> AKA is growing topline revenue sharply, in part due to its acquisition activities but its operating margin was 4.6% in the most recent six-month period versus the public basket of an average of 5.93%.</p><p><blockquote>AKA的营收大幅增长，部分原因是其收购活动，但其最近六个月的营业利润率为4.6%，而公共篮子的平均营业利润率为5.93%。</blockquote></p><p> So AKA is growing quickly through acquisition but has a lower operating margin than its public peers.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AKA通过收购快速增长，但营业利润率低于上市同行。</blockquote></p><p> However, I favor DTC companies for things like apparel, as the firm can adjust its offering much faster and more accurately as a result of its direct relationship with customers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我更喜欢服装等领域的DTC公司，因为由于与客户的直接关系，该公司可以更快、更准确地调整其产品。</blockquote></p><p> Also, AKA’s mobile-first approach combined with DTC business model also positions the firm well for its target demographic of younger consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，AKA的移动优先方法与DTC商业模式相结合，也使该公司在年轻消费者的目标人群中处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p> Although the IPO isn’t cheap, I believe AKA has significant room to grow and continue executing its business model approach, so the IPO is worth consideration.</p><p><blockquote>尽管IPO并不便宜，但我相信AKA有很大的增长空间并继续执行其商业模式方法，因此IPO值得考虑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AKA":"a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154932699","content_text":"(Sept 22) a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. opens for trading at $9.5, down 13.64% from IPO price.\n\nCompany & Technology\nSan Francisco, California-based a.k.a. Brands was founded to develop a portfolio of digitally-focused, DTC consumer apparel and fashion brands with a global reach.\nManagement is headed by Chief Executive Officer Jill Ramsey, who has been with the firm since May 2020 and was previously Chief Product and Digital Revenue Officer at Macy's.\nThe company’s primary offerings include:\n\nPrincess Polly\nCulture Kings\nPetal & Pup\nRebdolls\n\nBelow is the a.k.a. platform as it currently stands:\na.k.a. Brands has received at least $330 million in equity investment from investors including New Excelerate, Beard Entities and Bryett Enterprises Trust.\nCustomer Acquisition\nThe company focuses its marketing efforts on Millennials and Gen Z consumers who 'seek fashion inspiration on social media and primarily shop online and via mobile devices.'\nSo, a.k.a. leverages its data to provide relevant social content and make other digital marketing strategy efforts to reach consumers directly online.\nSelling expenses as a percentage of total revenue have risen as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:\nThe Selling efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Selling spend, was stable in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:\nFor a.k.a.’s largest property, Princess Polly, user engagement measured by average number of pages per visit on that website has remained relatively flat over the last two years, with a recent slight increase to a current blended average desktop/mobile of 7.28 pages per visit, as the chart shows below:\n\n(Source:Similarweb)\nAccording to a marketresearch reportby BlueCart, the global market for DTC (direct-to-consumer) sales is expected to reach $20 billion globally in 2021.\nThis represents a forecast potential increase of 15% over results in 2020.\nThe main drivers for this expected growth are an increase in consumer openness to hearing directly from manufacturers via online channels.\nAlso, there is a growing desire by businesses to gain an edge through greater data-driven insights stemming from direct relationships with their customers rather than working through 3rd party distributors and retail outlets.\nMajor competitive or other industry participants by type include:\n\nEcommerce companies\nIn-person stores\n\nFinancial Performance\na.k.a. Brands’ recent financial results can be summarized as follows (includes 55% stake in Culture Kings Group):\n\nSharply growing topline revenue\nGrowing gross profit\nIncreasing gross margin\nUneven operating profit and margin\nVariable cash flow from operations\n\nBelow are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:\nAs of June 30, 2021, a.k.a. Brands had $34.3 million in cash and $277.8 million in total liabilities.\nFree cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $28.7 million.\nIPO Details\nAKA intends to sell 13.9 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $18.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $250 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.\nNo existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares at the IPO price.\nAssuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex- underwriter options) would approximate $2.3 billion.\nExcluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 10.72%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.\nPer the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows (in conjunction with a planned new senior secured credit facility):\n\n(Source)\nManagement’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.\nRegarding outstanding legal proceedings, management believes that any legal claims against it would not be material to its operations or financial condition.\nListed bookrunners of the IPO are BofA Securities, Credit Suisse, Jefferies and other investment banks.\nValuation Metrics\nBelow is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:\n\nCommentary\nAKA is going public to pay down debt and for its future expansion plans.\nAKS’ financials show sharply growing topline revenue and gross profit, increasing gross margin but uneven operating profit and margin and variable cash flow from operations\nFree cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $28.7 million.\nSelling expenses as a percentage of total revenue have risen as revenue has increased and its Selling efficiency rate was stable at an impressive 2.3x.\nThe market opportunity for selling fashionable clothing direct to consumer [DTC] aimed at younger demographics is large and expected to grow substantially in the years ahead.\nBeing a mobile-first DTC firm, AKA is well-positioned to adjust to a market that is focused on using online, mobile-phone app purchase modalities.\nBofA Securities is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 11.5% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.\nThe primary risk to the company’s outlook is the high rate of change in consumer tastes and preferences, which can make it challenging and costly to react to changes in a compressed time period.\nAs for valuation, compared toa basketof publicly held Apparel companies complied by noted valuation expert Dr. Aswath Damodaran which as of January 2021 had an average EV/Sales multiple of 2.03x, AKA is seeking an EV/Revenue multiple of 5.03x.\nAKA is growing topline revenue sharply, in part due to its acquisition activities but its operating margin was 4.6% in the most recent six-month period versus the public basket of an average of 5.93%.\nSo AKA is growing quickly through acquisition but has a lower operating margin than its public peers.\nHowever, I favor DTC companies for things like apparel, as the firm can adjust its offering much faster and more accurately as a result of its direct relationship with customers.\nAlso, AKA’s mobile-first approach combined with DTC business model also positions the firm well for its target demographic of younger consumers.\nAlthough the IPO isn’t cheap, I believe AKA has significant room to grow and continue executing its business model approach, so the IPO is worth consideration.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AKA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880885998,"gmtCreate":1631031796514,"gmtModify":1631892309056,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880885998","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":849187931,"gmtCreate":1635735265747,"gmtModify":1635736684607,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849187931","repostId":"2179250221","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179250221","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635721559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179250221?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 07:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>美联储决定、十月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179250221","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set th","content":"<p><div> The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美联储即将召开的货币政策会议将成为本周的焦点，并可能为期待已久的资产购买缩减公告奠定基础。与此同时，交易者也将...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>美联储决定、十月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>美联储决定、十月就业报告：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-01 07:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美联储即将召开的货币政策会议将成为本周的焦点，并可能为期待已久的资产购买缩减公告奠定基础。与此同时，交易者也将...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APO":"阿波罗全球管理","CLX":"高乐氏","UBER":"优步","CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ATVI":"动视暴雪","COP":"康菲石油","BLMN":"Bloomin' Brands",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","EL":"雅诗兰黛","RL":"拉夫劳伦","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179250221","content_text":"The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also await more data on the U.S. economic recovery with the Labor Department's monthly jobs report later this week.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) November meeting will take place from Tuesday to Wednesday, with the policy statement and press conference from the meeting serving as the central bank's penultimate opportunity this year to announce formal plans to begin rolling back its crisis-era quantitative easing program. For the past year-and-a-half, the central bank has been purchasing $120 billion per month in agency mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries, as one major tool to support the economy during the pandemic.\nIn late September, the FOMC's latest monetary policy statement and press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank was apt to announce the start of tapering before year-end, and continue the tapering process until \"around the middle of next year.\"\n\"The upcoming FOMC meeting will be important for three reasons: 1) the announcement of tapering; 2) guidance around what tapering means for the path of hikes; and 3) nuanced changes in views around inflation risks given recent data,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note.\n\"The statement that announces the new pace of asset purchases will be followed by a note regarding flexibility stating that asset purchases are not on a pre-set course and will depend on the outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as an assessment of the efficacy of asset purchases,\" she predicted.\nShe noted that Powell may also use the press conference to reiterate that the end of tapering would not necessarily indicate the start of rate hikes, and that both policy actions are distinct. In previous public remarks, Powell has already made a similar point in previous public remarks, saying, \"the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.\"\nGiven the market has been anticipating the start to tapering for months now, speculation around when the Fed will make a move on interest rates has become a point of particular interest to investors. Investors and economists have mulled whether the Fed may need to act more quickly than previously telegraphed on adjusting interest rates to stave off inflation, which has proven more long-lasting than some had suggested.\nWASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 24: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on September 24, 2020 in Washington, DC. Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are testifying about the CARES Act and the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)Drew Angerer via Getty Images\nIn September, core personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rose 3.6% over last year for a fourth consecutive month, coming in at the fastest clip since 1991. And earlier this month, Powell acknowledged in public remarks that the supply chain constraints and shortages that spurred the latest rise in prices are \"likely to last longer than previously expected, likely well into next year.\"\nWhile the central bank will not release an updated Summary of Economic Projections with their policy statement on Wednesday, the latest projections from the September meeting suggested the committee was split on rate hikes for 2022, with nine members seeing no rate hikes by the end of next year while the other nine members saw at least one hike.\n\"I think the Fed has pretty well determined to start the taper pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start it soon thereafter, so that's pretty well carved in stone,\" Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live last week. \"I think the big debate now is how quickly the Fed moves toward actually raising rates. The expectation in the market has really shifted to expecting as many as two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 ... that’s a pretty aggressive pace of tightening.\"\nOctober jobs report\nOne of this week's most closely watched pieces of economic data will be the October jobs report, which is due for release on Friday from the Labor Department.\nEconomists are looking to see a pick-up in the pace of hiring for October after a disappointing print in September, when just 194,000 non-farm payrolls returned versus the half million expected. Over the past two months, payroll gains averaged at just 280,000. The unemployment rate is expected to take another small step toward pre-pandemic levels in October as well, with the jobless rate anticipated to dip to 4.7% from 4.8% the prior month.\nStill, the labor market has still fallen short its pre-pandemic conditions on a number of fronts. The unemployment rate has yet to return to its 50-year low of 3.5% from February 2020. And as of September, the civilian labor force was still down by about 3.1 million individuals from pre-virus levels.\nOne factor weighing on the labor market in August and September was the Delta variant, which may have deterred some workers from seeking employment in person for risk of infection. And an ongoing element dragging on the labor market's recovery has been a mismatch of supply and demand, with employers struggling to fill a near-record number of job openings while voluntary quits jumped to a historically high level.\n\"Next week’s October payrolls report will shed light on whether supply eased on diminishing constraints or if the labor market continues to face headwinds for now,\" wrote Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, in a note last week.\nBut some data from the past couple weeks has reflected favorably on conditions in the labor market in October. Weekly new unemployment claims broke below 300,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic during the survey week for the October jobs report, or the week that includes the 12th of the month. And in the Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index, just 10.6% of consumers said jobs were \"hard to get,\" down from 13.0% in September. That brought the Conference Board's closely watched labor market differential, or percentage of consumers saying jobs are \"hard to get\" subtracted from the percentage saying jobs \"are plentiful,\" to 45, or its highest level since 2000.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Oct. final (59.3 expected, 59.2 in September); Constructing spending, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.0% in August); ISM Manufacturing Index, Oct. (60.5 expected, 61.1 in September)\nTuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Oct. 29 (0.3% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, Oct. (400,000 expected, 568,000 in September); ISM Services Index, October (62.0 expected, 61.9 in September); Factory Orders, September (-0.1% expected, 1.2% in August); Durable goods orders, September final (-0.4% in prior print; Durable goods orders excluding transportation, September final (0.4% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, September final (0.8% in prior print); Markit U.S. Services PMI, October final (58.2 expected, 58.2 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, October final (57.3 in prior print); Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy decision\nThursday: Challenger job cuts, year-over-year, October (-84.9% in September); Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 30 (275,000 expected, 281,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Oct. 23 (2.147 million expected, 2.243 million during prior week); Non-farm productivity, Q3 preliminary (-3.2% expected, 2.1% in Q2); Unit Labor Costs, Q3 preliminary (6.9% expected, 1.3% in Q2); Trade balance, September (-$80.1 billion expected, -$73.3 billion in August)\nFriday: Change in non-farm payrolls, October (450,000 expected, 194,000 in September); Unemployment rate, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, October (4.9% expected, 4.6% in September); Labor Force Participation Rate, October (61.8% expected, 61.6% in September); Consumer Credit, September ($16.200 billion expected, $14.379 million in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Clorox (CLX), Avis Budget Group (CAR), ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI), Chegg Inc. (CHGG), Diamondback Energy (FANG), The Simon Property Group (SPG) after market close\nTuesday: Under Armour (UAA), Estee Lauder (EL), Ralph Lauren (RL), Apollo Global Management (APO), Corsair Gaming (CRSR), Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Pfizer (PFE), Groupon (GPN), Marathon Petroleum (MPC) before market open; Mondelez (MDLZ), T-Mobile (TMUS), Akamai (AKAM), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Lyft (LYFT), Match Group (MTCH), Devon Energy (DVN), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Coursera (COUR), Zillow Group (ZG), Amgen (AMGN) after market close\nWednesday: Humana (HUM), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), The New York Times (NYT), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Marriott International (MAR), CVS Health Corp. (CVS), Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) before market open; Booking Holdings (BKNG), Qorvo (QRVO), The Allstate Corp. (ALL), MGM Resorts International (MGM), $Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ (TTWO), Electronic Arts (EA), Vimeo (VMEO), Etsy (ETSY), GoDaddy (GDDY), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), Roku (ROKU), Qualcomm (QCOM) after market close\nThursday: Cigna (CI), Wayfair (W), ViacomCBS (VIAC), Nikola (NKLA), Duke Energy (DUK), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Hanesbrands (HBI), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Vulcan Material (VMC), Kellogg (K), Square (SQ), Cloudflare (NET), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Uber Technologies (UBER), American International Group (AIG), Shake Shack (SHAK), iHeartMedia (IHRT), Novavax (NVAX), IAC Interactive Corp. (IAC), Peloton (PTON), Dropbox (DBX), DataDog (DDOG), Pinterest (PINS), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Expedia (EXPE), Rocket Cos. (RKT), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Airbnb (ABNB)\nFriday: Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Dish Networks (DISH), Dominion Energy (D), DraftKings (DKNG), Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT), Cinemark Holdings (CNK) before market open","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"COP":0.9,"CRSR":0.9,"APO":0.9,"CLX":0.9,"ATVI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BLMN":0.9,"RL":0.9,"EL":0.9,"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866271547,"gmtCreate":1632787848589,"gmtModify":1632797591170,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lo","listText":"Lo","text":"Lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866271547","repostId":"1156306273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156306273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156306273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:02","market":"other","language":"en","title":"All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156306273","media":"zerohedge","summary":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which accordi","content":"<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场的一切都在失控</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 08:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受历史性的天然气危机，据荷兰合作银行称，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their<b>highest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day</b>(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，对于欧洲人民来说，随着每一天的过去——以及在较小程度上像Statar Capital这样在过去几天遭受巨大损失的对冲基金——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的Javier Blas今天指出的那样，英国NBP和荷兰TTF天然气基准均收于<b>有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约11%</b>（收盘价超过每MBtu 26美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,<b>more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average</b>, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，<b>比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上</b>，明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热单位27美元左右易手，创下季节性历史新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态”）。另外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的outRabobank对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote></p><p> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲的能源危机不仅限于天然气，正如我们周末在另一场20世纪70年代美国的倒叙中所讨论的那样，周一，英国城市的英国加油站泵正在干涸，由于卡车司机短缺，供应商实行配给销售，供应链紧张到崩溃点。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么有迹象表明燃油不可用，一些加油站限制了每位顾客可以购买的燃油量。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,<b>said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas</b>.</p><p><blockquote>汽油零售商协会(PRA)代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有8,380家前院的65%，<b>这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的</b>.</blockquote></p><p> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.</p><p><blockquote>随着COVID-19大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺问题给英国从食品到燃料的各个方面的供应链带来了混乱，引发了人们对圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们在仍在出售燃料的加油站排了几个小时的队给他们的车加油，尽管通常是定量配给的。国民医疗服务体系（NHS）工作人员和其他急救人员也优先考虑评级。</blockquote></p><p> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"</p><p><blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，没有快速解决办法，因为卡车司机短缺（估计约为10万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA执行董事戈登·巴尔默(Gordon Balmer)告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽了网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote></p><p> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克称，由于供应难以赶上快速增长的需求，今年冬天及以后，世界将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>托克石油交易联席主管本·卢科克在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们将看到油价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.</p><p><blockquote>Luckock表示，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价错误，因为交易员尚未意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：更高的价格即将到来，而且看不到缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.</p><p><blockquote>“延期原油，尤其是2022年12月和2023年的延期原油，很便宜，”他说。2022年12月交割的布伦特原油目前易手价格约为每桶70美元，但Luckock表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格已升至每桶100美元左右，也不会感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”</b>he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.</p><p><blockquote><b>“我很难看到未来两年价格会上涨，”</b>他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在12月的某个时候触及90美元。周一，立即交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.</p><p><blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现货溢价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶79美元，但在现货溢价市场中，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up<i><b>even more</b></i>this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在天然气方面，他表示价格可能会飙升<i><b>甚至更多</b></i>今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求更高。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.</p><p><blockquote>看涨前景出现之际，石油需求迅速恢复至大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在2022年初至中期达到2019年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直在控制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔一直能够保持对市场的控制。</blockquote></p><p> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出了非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”Luckock说。</blockquote></p><p> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:<b>“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”</b></p><p><blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降：<b>“如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天很冷，我们就有大问题了，”他说。“如果天气很冷，而且顶上没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, Luckock said he<b>was skeptical that Russia,</b>the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他<b>我怀疑俄国，</b>欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益故意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单：俄罗斯面临许多气田的维护、国内库存非常低、流向土耳其的流量大幅增加，而俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156306273","content_text":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.\n\nAnd unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at theirhighest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).\nNatural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.\nEurope's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.\nThe Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.\nA post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.\nHauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"\nShifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.\n“We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.\nLuckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.\n“Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.\n\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.\nIf he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.\nOn natural gas, he said prices could shoot upeven morethis winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.\nThe bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.\n“The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.\nLuckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”\nNotably, Luckock said hewas skeptical that Russia,the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.\n“It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822351338,"gmtCreate":1634094031594,"gmtModify":1634094140440,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822351338","repostId":"1189203328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189203328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634087217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189203328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 09:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189203328","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8,","content":"<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 09:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189203328","content_text":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.\nIt is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865196325,"gmtCreate":1632959738794,"gmtModify":1632959866907,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865196325","repostId":"2171933449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887084779,"gmtCreate":1631945020091,"gmtModify":1632805146576,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887084779","repostId":"2168716185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888605315,"gmtCreate":1631491592137,"gmtModify":1631890537571,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888605315","repostId":"2167052753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889570208,"gmtCreate":1631163239104,"gmtModify":1631890537621,"author":{"id":"3567979712068924","authorId":"3567979712068924","name":"Kanyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4865bae805415342780f86469a2ba7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567979712068924","authorIdStr":"3567979712068924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889570208","repostId":"1152602866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p><p><blockquote>两位华尔街策略师刚刚对今年秋季股市前景持谨慎态度。他们加入了一个日益壮大的合唱团。</blockquote></p><p> The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p><p><blockquote>宏观市场专家一如既往地看好正在进行的经济复苏，但对股市的看法就不那么乐观了。美联储缩减购债规模、政治戏剧和昂贵的估值都可能导致今年秋天的股市陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨(Andrew Sheets)认为未来几个月将“坎坷”，因此将美股评级下调至相当于卖出。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)发布了两个标普500目标，这意味着近期将出现亏损，并且到明年年底市场充其量将持平。</blockquote></p><p> “Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p><p><blockquote>“投资者情绪和估值都在扩大——很多乐观情绪已经被消化——我们的长期估值模型表明，自科技泡沫以来，未来十年标普500首次出现负回报（年化回报率为-0.8%），”她写道。</blockquote></p><p> Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p><p><blockquote>Subramanian预计，今年年底标普500将降至4250点，较目前4500点左右的水平下降约6%。她预计该指数到2022年底将反弹至4600点，较今天仅上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p><p><blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚衡量投资者情绪的指标——一个反向指标——正在发出兴奋的信号，而此时她正开始担心利润率和盈利增长。她指出，供应链中断以及工资和投入成本的通胀是盈利能力面临的阻力。除此之外：来年利率可能会更高而不是更低——这会影响估值倍数——而且萨勃拉曼尼亚在标普500指数水平上没有太多值得喜欢的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sheets预计，美联储将在本月晚些时候宣布开始减少每月资产购买的计划，官员们还将更新他们所谓的未来利率预测“点阵图”，以显示加息步伐快于预期。Sheets认为，这些应该会推高美国国债收益率，给美国股市带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p><p><blockquote>国会关于传统和“社会”基础设施法案的争论——以及潜在的更高的公司税和个人税——将在未来几周产生一些负面头条新闻。希茨写道，当前周期的经济和盈利增长率可能已经见顶。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，他认为事情会以两种方式发展：更多的财政刺激，更少的新冠肺炎，以及美国经济持续快速增长将鼓励美联储收紧政策，推高收益率，降低股市。或者，增长放缓将对昂贵的股票构成挑战，并可能引发“增长恐慌”抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p><p><blockquote>不管怎样，这意味着股市回报为负，而Sheets更喜欢欧洲和日本股票而不是标普500。大摩策略师将2022年中期标普500目标定为4225点，较目前下跌约6%。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个正常的困境，”希茨写道。“在衰退后最初的反弹之后，增长通常会放缓。随着需求上升和劳动力市场收紧，经济改善通常会带来更多的成本压力和通胀。这通常意味着央行转向收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说经济衰退即将来临或盈利将会下降。这只是周期中的一个新阶段，也是一个股票平均表现不佳的阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p><p><blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚对此表示同意：“这种环境有利于利率、通胀和面向美国经济增长的公司，”她写道。“尽管我们对股市的前景更加谨慎，但我们认为市场的几个领域也处于有利地位：购买通胀保值收益率和美国小盘股。”</blockquote></p><p> Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p><p><blockquote>当经济增长强劲时，小盘股往往表现良好，Subramanian认为未来一年政府增加基础设施支出和企业资本支出投资可能带来好处。此外，相对估值比大盘股便宜，使得小盘股的提振作用较小。</blockquote></p><p> The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，小盘股罗素2000指数目前的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的29倍，而过去25年的平均市盈率约为27.5倍。相比之下，标普500目前的预期市盈率超过22倍，长期平均市盈率约为17倍。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>通胀保值收益率意味着股息增长型股票。萨勃拉曼尼亚写道：“债券提供没有通胀保护的收益率，大宗商品提供通胀风险但没有收益率。”“股票位于中间：与债券收益率不同，收益是名义上的，并随着通货膨胀而增长。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p><p><blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚特别喜欢能源、金融和材料等行业的股息增长股票，这些股票将受益于经济增长和高于平均水平的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，其中可能包括美国银行（股票代码：BAC）、花旗集团（C）、纽蒙特公司（NEM）、EOG Resources（EOG）或先锋自然资源公司（PXD）<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选这些行业中股息增长的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p><p><blockquote>两位华尔街策略师刚刚对今年秋季股市前景持谨慎态度。他们加入了一个日益壮大的合唱团。</blockquote></p><p> The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p><p><blockquote>宏观市场专家一如既往地看好正在进行的经济复苏，但对股市的看法就不那么乐观了。美联储缩减购债规模、政治戏剧和昂贵的估值都可能导致今年秋天的股市陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨(Andrew Sheets)认为未来几个月将“坎坷”，因此将美股评级下调至相当于卖出。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)发布了两个标普500目标，这意味着近期将出现亏损，并且到明年年底市场充其量将持平。</blockquote></p><p> “Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p><p><blockquote>“投资者情绪和估值都在扩大——很多乐观情绪已经被消化——我们的长期估值模型表明，自科技泡沫以来，未来十年标普500首次出现负回报（年化回报率为-0.8%），”她写道。</blockquote></p><p> Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p><p><blockquote>Subramanian预计，今年年底标普500将降至4250点，较目前4500点左右的水平下降约6%。她预计该指数到2022年底将反弹至4600点，较今天仅上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p><p><blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚衡量投资者情绪的指标——一个反向指标——正在发出兴奋的信号，而此时她正开始担心利润率和盈利增长。她指出，供应链中断以及工资和投入成本的通胀是盈利能力面临的阻力。除此之外：来年利率可能会更高而不是更低——这会影响估值倍数——而且萨勃拉曼尼亚在标普500指数水平上没有太多值得喜欢的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sheets预计，美联储将在本月晚些时候宣布开始减少每月资产购买的计划，官员们还将更新他们所谓的未来利率预测“点阵图”，以显示加息步伐快于预期。Sheets认为，这些应该会推高美国国债收益率，给美国股市带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p><p><blockquote>国会关于传统和“社会”基础设施法案的争论——以及潜在的更高的公司税和个人税——将在未来几周产生一些负面头条新闻。希茨写道，当前周期的经济和盈利增长率可能已经见顶。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，他认为事情会以两种方式发展：更多的财政刺激，更少的新冠肺炎，以及美国经济持续快速增长将鼓励美联储收紧政策，推高收益率，降低股市。或者，增长放缓将对昂贵的股票构成挑战，并可能引发“增长恐慌”抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p><p><blockquote>不管怎样，这意味着股市回报为负，而Sheets更喜欢欧洲和日本股票而不是标普500。大摩策略师将2022年中期标普500目标定为4225点，较目前下跌约6%。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个正常的困境，”希茨写道。“在衰退后最初的反弹之后，增长通常会放缓。随着需求上升和劳动力市场收紧，经济改善通常会带来更多的成本压力和通胀。这通常意味着央行转向收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说经济衰退即将来临或盈利将会下降。这只是周期中的一个新阶段，也是一个股票平均表现不佳的阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p><p><blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚对此表示同意：“这种环境有利于利率、通胀和面向美国经济增长的公司，”她写道。“尽管我们对股市的前景更加谨慎，但我们认为市场的几个领域也处于有利地位：购买通胀保值收益率和美国小盘股。”</blockquote></p><p> Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p><p><blockquote>当经济增长强劲时，小盘股往往表现良好，Subramanian认为未来一年政府增加基础设施支出和企业资本支出投资可能带来好处。此外，相对估值比大盘股便宜，使得小盘股的提振作用较小。</blockquote></p><p> The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，小盘股罗素2000指数目前的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的29倍，而过去25年的平均市盈率约为27.5倍。相比之下，标普500目前的预期市盈率超过22倍，长期平均市盈率约为17倍。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>通胀保值收益率意味着股息增长型股票。萨勃拉曼尼亚写道：“债券提供没有通胀保护的收益率，大宗商品提供通胀风险但没有收益率。”“股票位于中间：与债券收益率不同，收益是名义上的，并随着通货膨胀而增长。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p><p><blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚特别喜欢能源、金融和材料等行业的股息增长股票，这些股票将受益于经济增长和高于平均水平的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，其中可能包括美国银行（股票代码：BAC）、花旗集团（C）、纽蒙特公司（NEM）、EOG Resources（EOG）或先锋自然资源公司（PXD）<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选这些行业中股息增长的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}