Pigmonkey的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Pigmonkey

Pigmonkey

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

481关注

33粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-06-05

Lik n comment pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Ok

Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-11

Like n comment pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Time to in?

2021-12-15

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-16

Ok

Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote>

2021-11-06

Okay

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-20

Comment pls

U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>

2021-11-21

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-20

Ok

Boeing Dreamliner Defects Bog Down Production<blockquote>波音梦想飞机缺陷导致生产陷入困境</blockquote>

2021-10-10

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-04

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-21

Ok

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>

2021-06-30

Like pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

Comment & like pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-10

Comment pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-04

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-23

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-09

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-08

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3568071651427696","uuid":"3568071651427696","gmtCreate":1605008948884,"gmtModify":1618727658663,"name":"Pigmonkey","pinyin":"pigmonkey","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":33,"headSize":481,"tweetSize":304,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.13","exceedPercentage":"93.26%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.25","exceedPercentage":"93.39%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":693906467,"gmtCreate":1639957114092,"gmtModify":1639957114482,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693906467","repostId":"1130704419","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130704419","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639953553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130704419?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130704419","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports per","content":"<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份现房销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 06:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份现房销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KMX":"车美仕","CTAS":"信达思",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MU":"美光科技","GIS":"通用磨坊","PAYX":"沛齐",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130704419","content_text":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.\nIt will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.\nOn Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.\nAlso Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.\nMonday 12/20\nMicron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.\nTuesday 12/21\nBlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.\nWednesday 12/22\nThe NAR reports existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.\nCarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.\nThe Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.\nThursday 12/23\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.\nThe Census Bureau reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.\nThe BEA reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.\nFriday 12/24\nU.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"KMX":0.9,"MU":0.9,"CTAS":0.9,"PAYX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699760836,"gmtCreate":1639899391673,"gmtModify":1639899392039,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699760836","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699630958,"gmtCreate":1639789281578,"gmtModify":1639789281960,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699630958","repostId":"2192597562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690170310,"gmtCreate":1639650116281,"gmtModify":1639650183269,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690170310","repostId":"1165042142","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607685502,"gmtCreate":1639533250657,"gmtModify":1639533406555,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607685502","repostId":"2191784951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607034489,"gmtCreate":1639455543118,"gmtModify":1639455543548,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607034489","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607034143,"gmtCreate":1639455506389,"gmtModify":1639455506813,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607034143","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607035711,"gmtCreate":1639455463923,"gmtModify":1639455464292,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607035711","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604608461,"gmtCreate":1639379938858,"gmtModify":1639379939213,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604608461","repostId":"1120125765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120125765","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639379407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120125765?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 15:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"French court set to rule on record UBS fine<blockquote>法国法院将对瑞银创纪录罚款做出裁决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120125765","media":"Reuters","summary":"French judges are set to rule on Monday on whether to overturn a record 4.5 billion euro ($5.1 billi","content":"<p>French judges are set to rule on Monday on whether to overturn a record 4.5 billion euro ($5.1 billion) fine against Swiss bank UBS(UBSG.S)for allegedly helping wealthy clients stash undeclared assets offshore.</p><p><blockquote>法国法官将于周一就是否推翻对瑞士银行瑞银(UBSG.S)创纪录的45亿欧元（合51亿美元）罚款做出裁决。S)涉嫌帮助富有客户在海外藏匿未申报资产。</blockquote></p><p> The case is being watched by banks to see if it signals a toughening European stance. Fines in Europe for tax-related and other offences have in the past been smaller than in the United States, but the size of the UBS penalty has proved an exception.</p><p><blockquote>银行正在关注此案，看看它是否标志着欧洲立场的强硬。过去，欧洲对税务相关和其他违法行为的罚款低于美国，但瑞银的罚款规模被证明是个例外。</blockquote></p><p> The Paris appeals court is set to rule on whether to confirm or adjust the penalty against Switzerland's largest lender, which was imposed after an initial trial in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>巴黎上诉法院将就是否确认或调整对瑞士最大银行的处罚做出裁决，该处罚是在2019年初步审判后实施的。</blockquote></p><p> UBS appealed against the verdict that found it guilty of illegally soliciting clients at sporting events and parties in France, and laundering the proceeds of tax evasion.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银对判决提出上诉，该判决认定其在法国的体育赛事和派对上非法招揽客户，并洗钱逃税所得。</blockquote></p><p> Lawyers for UBS argued in the appeals trial that, despite whistleblowers coming forward, investigators had never found clear evidence of systematic attempts to canvass French customers by UBS commercial specialists.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银的律师在上诉审判中辩称，尽管举报人站出来，但调查人员从未发现瑞银商业专家系统性地试图游说法国客户的明确证据。</blockquote></p><p> The bank wants the allegations thrown out. It has also said the fine imposed was disproportionate.</p><p><blockquote>银行希望驳回这些指控。它还表示，罚款是不相称的。</blockquote></p><p> Prosecutors in the appeals trial said they would seek a fine of at least 2 billion euros, while the French state is looking for 1 billion euros in damages - bringing total penalties to closer to 3 billion euros.</p><p><blockquote>上诉审判中的检察官表示，他们将寻求至少20亿欧元的罚款，而法国政府则寻求10亿欧元的损害赔偿，使罚款总额接近30亿欧元。</blockquote></p><p> The bank has set aside 450 million euros to cover for any penalty in the case.</p><p><blockquote>该银行已拨出4.5亿欧元来支付此案的任何罚款。</blockquote></p><p> The appeals court ruling was delayed from September due to the ill health of one of the magistrates. Any verdict in the case can be further appealed to France's Supreme Court.</p><p><blockquote>由于一名治安法官健康状况不佳，上诉法院的裁决从9月起被推迟。该案的任何判决都可以进一步上诉到法国最高法院。</blockquote></p><p> The French case involved an unusually high fine for Europe. By comparison, UBS settled a&nbsp;Belgian tax evasion case&nbsp;in November involving a penalty of 49 million euros.</p><p><blockquote>法国的案件涉及欧洲异常高的罚款。相比之下，瑞银去年11月解决了一起比利时逃税案，涉及4900万欧元的罚款。</blockquote></p><p> The 2019 UBS case in France also resulted in Swiss judges setting a precedent for foreign governments seeking information from Swiss banks, although they said such information was limited to pursuing tax evaders and not to be used against the bank itself.</p><p><blockquote>2019年法国瑞银案也导致瑞士法官开创了外国政府向瑞士银行寻求信息的先例，尽管他们表示此类信息仅限于追捕逃税者，而不是用来对付银行本身。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 0.8866 euros)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=0.8866欧元）</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>French court set to rule on record UBS fine<blockquote>法国法院将对瑞银创纪录罚款做出裁决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrench court set to rule on record UBS fine<blockquote>法国法院将对瑞银创纪录罚款做出裁决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>French judges are set to rule on Monday on whether to overturn a record 4.5 billion euro ($5.1 billion) fine against Swiss bank UBS(UBSG.S)for allegedly helping wealthy clients stash undeclared assets offshore.</p><p><blockquote>法国法官将于周一就是否推翻对瑞士银行瑞银(UBSG.S)创纪录的45亿欧元（合51亿美元）罚款做出裁决。S)涉嫌帮助富有客户在海外藏匿未申报资产。</blockquote></p><p> The case is being watched by banks to see if it signals a toughening European stance. Fines in Europe for tax-related and other offences have in the past been smaller than in the United States, but the size of the UBS penalty has proved an exception.</p><p><blockquote>银行正在关注此案，看看它是否标志着欧洲立场的强硬。过去，欧洲对税务相关和其他违法行为的罚款低于美国，但瑞银的罚款规模被证明是个例外。</blockquote></p><p> The Paris appeals court is set to rule on whether to confirm or adjust the penalty against Switzerland's largest lender, which was imposed after an initial trial in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>巴黎上诉法院将就是否确认或调整对瑞士最大银行的处罚做出裁决，该处罚是在2019年初步审判后实施的。</blockquote></p><p> UBS appealed against the verdict that found it guilty of illegally soliciting clients at sporting events and parties in France, and laundering the proceeds of tax evasion.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银对判决提出上诉，该判决认定其在法国的体育赛事和派对上非法招揽客户，并洗钱逃税所得。</blockquote></p><p> Lawyers for UBS argued in the appeals trial that, despite whistleblowers coming forward, investigators had never found clear evidence of systematic attempts to canvass French customers by UBS commercial specialists.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银的律师在上诉审判中辩称，尽管举报人站出来，但调查人员从未发现瑞银商业专家系统性地试图游说法国客户的明确证据。</blockquote></p><p> The bank wants the allegations thrown out. It has also said the fine imposed was disproportionate.</p><p><blockquote>银行希望驳回这些指控。它还表示，罚款是不相称的。</blockquote></p><p> Prosecutors in the appeals trial said they would seek a fine of at least 2 billion euros, while the French state is looking for 1 billion euros in damages - bringing total penalties to closer to 3 billion euros.</p><p><blockquote>上诉审判中的检察官表示，他们将寻求至少20亿欧元的罚款，而法国政府则寻求10亿欧元的损害赔偿，使罚款总额接近30亿欧元。</blockquote></p><p> The bank has set aside 450 million euros to cover for any penalty in the case.</p><p><blockquote>该银行已拨出4.5亿欧元来支付此案的任何罚款。</blockquote></p><p> The appeals court ruling was delayed from September due to the ill health of one of the magistrates. Any verdict in the case can be further appealed to France's Supreme Court.</p><p><blockquote>由于一名治安法官健康状况不佳，上诉法院的裁决从9月起被推迟。该案的任何判决都可以进一步上诉到法国最高法院。</blockquote></p><p> The French case involved an unusually high fine for Europe. By comparison, UBS settled a&nbsp;Belgian tax evasion case&nbsp;in November involving a penalty of 49 million euros.</p><p><blockquote>法国的案件涉及欧洲异常高的罚款。相比之下，瑞银去年11月解决了一起比利时逃税案，涉及4900万欧元的罚款。</blockquote></p><p> The 2019 UBS case in France also resulted in Swiss judges setting a precedent for foreign governments seeking information from Swiss banks, although they said such information was limited to pursuing tax evaders and not to be used against the bank itself.</p><p><blockquote>2019年法国瑞银案也导致瑞士法官开创了外国政府向瑞士银行寻求信息的先例，尽管他们表示此类信息仅限于追捕逃税者，而不是用来对付银行本身。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 0.8866 euros)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=0.8866欧元）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/french-court-set-rule-record-ubs-fine-2021-12-13/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBS":"瑞银"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/french-court-set-rule-record-ubs-fine-2021-12-13/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120125765","content_text":"French judges are set to rule on Monday on whether to overturn a record 4.5 billion euro ($5.1 billion) fine against Swiss bank UBS(UBSG.S)for allegedly helping wealthy clients stash undeclared assets offshore.\nThe case is being watched by banks to see if it signals a toughening European stance. Fines in Europe for tax-related and other offences have in the past been smaller than in the United States, but the size of the UBS penalty has proved an exception.\nThe Paris appeals court is set to rule on whether to confirm or adjust the penalty against Switzerland's largest lender, which was imposed after an initial trial in 2019.\nUBS appealed against the verdict that found it guilty of illegally soliciting clients at sporting events and parties in France, and laundering the proceeds of tax evasion.\nLawyers for UBS argued in the appeals trial that, despite whistleblowers coming forward, investigators had never found clear evidence of systematic attempts to canvass French customers by UBS commercial specialists.\nThe bank wants the allegations thrown out. It has also said the fine imposed was disproportionate.\nProsecutors in the appeals trial said they would seek a fine of at least 2 billion euros, while the French state is looking for 1 billion euros in damages - bringing total penalties to closer to 3 billion euros.\nThe bank has set aside 450 million euros to cover for any penalty in the case.\nThe appeals court ruling was delayed from September due to the ill health of one of the magistrates. Any verdict in the case can be further appealed to France's Supreme Court.\nThe French case involved an unusually high fine for Europe. By comparison, UBS settled a Belgian tax evasion case in November involving a penalty of 49 million euros.\nThe 2019 UBS case in France also resulted in Swiss judges setting a precedent for foreign governments seeking information from Swiss banks, although they said such information was limited to pursuing tax evaders and not to be used against the bank itself.\n($1 = 0.8866 euros)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604004736,"gmtCreate":1639275546535,"gmtModify":1639275546885,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okra&nbsp;","listText":"Okra&nbsp;","text":"Okra","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604004736","repostId":"2190967197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605587980,"gmtCreate":1639191401532,"gmtModify":1639191467094,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605587980","repostId":"2190205546","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605123780,"gmtCreate":1639132043360,"gmtModify":1639132043736,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605123780","repostId":"1160479644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602859336,"gmtCreate":1639008803858,"gmtModify":1639008804151,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602859336","repostId":"2190169579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602942698,"gmtCreate":1638964366863,"gmtModify":1638964367202,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602942698","repostId":"1175313304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175313304","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638964005,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175313304?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 19:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SentinelOne stock plunged 11% in premarket trading<blockquote>SentinelOne股价在盘前交易中暴跌11%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175313304","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"SentinelOne stock plunged 11% in premarket trading after soaring 13.4% yesterday.\n\nSentinelOne repor","content":"<p>SentinelOne stock plunged 11% in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;soaring&nbsp;13.4%&nbsp;yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>SentinelOne股价在昨日飙升13.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99dadc27cd626b6f052e60be655ae59\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> SentinelOne&nbsp;reported quarterly losses of $(0.26) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.18) by 44.44 percent. This is a 69.41 percent increase over losses of $(0.85) per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $56.02 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.57 million by 13.01 percent. This is a 128.11 percent increase over sales of $24.56 million the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>SentinelOne报告季度亏损为每股(0.26)美元，比分析师普遍预期的(0.18)美元低44.44%。与去年同期每股亏损(0.85)美元相比，增加了69.41%。该公司报告季度销售额为5602万美元，比分析师普遍预期的4957万美元高出13.01%。这比去年同期2456万美元的销售额增长了128.11%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SentinelOne stock plunged 11% in premarket trading<blockquote>SentinelOne股价在盘前交易中暴跌11%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSentinelOne stock plunged 11% in premarket trading<blockquote>SentinelOne股价在盘前交易中暴跌11%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 19:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SentinelOne stock plunged 11% in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;soaring&nbsp;13.4%&nbsp;yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>SentinelOne股价在昨日飙升13.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99dadc27cd626b6f052e60be655ae59\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> SentinelOne&nbsp;reported quarterly losses of $(0.26) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.18) by 44.44 percent. This is a 69.41 percent increase over losses of $(0.85) per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $56.02 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.57 million by 13.01 percent. This is a 128.11 percent increase over sales of $24.56 million the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>SentinelOne报告季度亏损为每股(0.26)美元，比分析师普遍预期的(0.18)美元低44.44%。与去年同期每股亏损(0.85)美元相比，增加了69.41%。该公司报告季度销售额为5602万美元，比分析师普遍预期的4957万美元高出13.01%。这比去年同期2456万美元的销售额增长了128.11%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"S":"SentinelOne, Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175313304","content_text":"SentinelOne stock plunged 11% in premarket trading after soaring 13.4% yesterday.\n\nSentinelOne reported quarterly losses of $(0.26) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.18) by 44.44 percent. This is a 69.41 percent increase over losses of $(0.85) per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $56.02 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.57 million by 13.01 percent. This is a 128.11 percent increase over sales of $24.56 million the same period last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"S":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606807516,"gmtCreate":1638850370127,"gmtModify":1638850370408,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606807516","repostId":"2189681055","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2189681055","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638848825,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2189681055?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-07 11:47","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Samsung to merge mobile and consumer electronics divisions<blockquote>三星将合并移动和消费电子部门</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2189681055","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer ","content":"<p><div> SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer electronics divisions, as it focuses on growing its logic chip business. The sweeping move is the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>首尔（路透社）-三星电子周二（12月7日）表示，将合并其移动和消费电子部门，因为它专注于发展其逻辑芯片业务。这一重大举措是...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Samsung to merge mobile and consumer electronics divisions<blockquote>三星将合并移动和消费电子部门</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSamsung to merge mobile and consumer electronics divisions<blockquote>三星将合并移动和消费电子部门</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Straits Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-07 11:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer electronics divisions, as it focuses on growing its logic chip business. The sweeping move is the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>首尔（路透社）-三星电子周二（12月7日）表示，将合并其移动和消费电子部门，因为它专注于发展其逻辑芯片业务。这一重大举措是...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions\">The Straits Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SSNGY":"Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd."},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2189681055","content_text":"SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer electronics divisions, as it focuses on growing its logic chip business.\nThe sweeping move is the latest sign of change at the world's largest memory chip and smartphone maker, after vice chairman Jay Y. Lee was paroled in August from a bribery conviction.\nThe head of visual display business, Han Jong-hee, was promoted to vice chairman and co-CEO, and will lead the newly merged division spanning mobile and consumer electronics.\nKyung Kye-hyun, CEO of Samsung Electro-Mechanics , was named co-CEO of Samsung Electronics and will lead the chip and components division.\nSamsung Group is focusing on areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robotics and biopharmaceuticals, and plans to invest 240 trillion won (S$278 billion) in these fields in the next three years.\nGroup flagship Samsung Electronics is aiming to overtake TSMC to become No. 1 in chip contract manufacturing by 2030.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SSNGY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608727206,"gmtCreate":1638793850528,"gmtModify":1638793851809,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608727206","repostId":"1191828969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191828969","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638792831,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191828969?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 20:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading<blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191828969","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The&nbsp;Singapore ride-hailing firm&nbsp;went on sale last week.","content":"<p>Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The&nbsp;Singapore ride-hailing firm&nbsp;went on sale last week.</p><p><blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%。这家新加坡网约车公司上周开始出售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de30b544b65a645e7a91a37bfb8d8f8\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading<blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading<blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-06 20:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The&nbsp;Singapore ride-hailing firm&nbsp;went on sale last week.</p><p><blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%。这家新加坡网约车公司上周开始出售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de30b544b65a645e7a91a37bfb8d8f8\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191828969","content_text":"Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The Singapore ride-hailing firm went on sale last week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608852859,"gmtCreate":1638689227985,"gmtModify":1638689228178,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608852859","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608381011,"gmtCreate":1638626668642,"gmtModify":1638626668795,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608381011","repostId":"1174181873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174181873","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638578178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174181873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-04 08:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181873","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billi","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-04 08:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HCP":"HashiCorp, Inc.","NU":"Nu Holdings Ltd.","REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181873","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.\nBuffett-backed Nu Holdings(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.\nCloud infrastructure platform HashiCorp(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&M spend.\nCannabis finance REIT Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.\nCanadian gold exploration company Austin Gold(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NU":0.9,"HCP":0.9,"REFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601971447,"gmtCreate":1638488460787,"gmtModify":1638488460977,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okra&nbsp;","listText":"Okra&nbsp;","text":"Okra","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601971447","repostId":"2188204517","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601971911,"gmtCreate":1638488434643,"gmtModify":1638488434831,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568071651427696","idStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601971911","repostId":"2188510525","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":112147173,"gmtCreate":1622857820992,"gmtModify":1634097330604,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lik n comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Lik n comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Lik n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112147173","repostId":"1198786025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177827241,"gmtCreate":1627198413983,"gmtModify":1633767210145,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177827241","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148895167,"gmtCreate":1625965503659,"gmtModify":1633931355661,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148895167","repostId":"1113530069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160455781,"gmtCreate":1623805120143,"gmtModify":1634027932726,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Time to in?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Time to in?","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Time to in?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160455781","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":607685502,"gmtCreate":1639533250657,"gmtModify":1639533406555,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607685502","repostId":"2191784951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885231072,"gmtCreate":1631795886496,"gmtModify":1631890304855,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885231072","repostId":"1132437771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132437771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631792549,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132437771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132437771","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.</li>  <li>Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.</li>  <li>Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达是半导体领域无可争议的领导者，拥有最赚钱的商业模式之一。</li><li>投资者的注意力通常集中在公司强大的产品路线图上，但现在与股价表现的相关性较小。</li><li>由于其独特的定位，英伟达的股价现在对整个市场的力量比对公司的业务基本面更敏感。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers &amp; cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization &amp; cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(NVDA)从几年前一家相对较小的游戏公司，现已成为全球最重要的科技企业之一。从数据中心&amp;云计算、无人驾驶汽车和各种人工智能计算工作负载，到游戏、可视化&amp;加密货币挖掘，Nvidia产品现在是新数字经济的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Not only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的知识产权不仅在新数字时代具有独特的地位，而且该公司还是图形处理单元(GPU)领域无可争议的领导者，拥有非常宽的护城河。这导致了英伟达的成功故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9ac68b953baa8a700911e6d0bae74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，展望未来，即使业务基本面有所改善，股价回报也可能令人失望。看来，某些全市场风险现在正在主导英伟达股价，可能会让许多英伟达股东措手不及。但在我们深入探讨这一点之前，我们需要适当考虑该公司的领先地位业务潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>All about GPUs demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于GPU需求的一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏部门仍然在英伟达的业务中占据相当大的比例，但在短短四年的时间里，数据中心的规模已经变得同样重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c28b9183a9848e6736b81b6d2a9c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达2021年年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>似乎已经在进行的更多基于云的工作负载的趋势还不够，当前的疫情显著加速了整体需求。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f8090d5c3afcbca0034dc19ebf87cd\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>除了数据中心之外，汽车行业也渴望英伟达的芯片，这使得该公司深深地融入了汽车生态系统。</blockquote></p><p>   NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.    Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e19c38b0c31479f3ca070abe62f088d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote>英伟达正在与汽车生态系统中的数百家合作伙伴合作，包括汽车制造商、卡车制造商、一级供应商、传感器制造商、汽车研究机构、高清地图公司和初创公司，为自动驾驶汽车开发和部署人工智能系统。资料来源：英伟达2021年年报<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NVIDIA 2021年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall&nbsp;preference&nbsp;for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，游戏玩家和加密货币矿工之间的拉锯战导致了英伟达GPU的销量增加和定价上涨。加密货币挖矿能耗的上升，加上对Nvidia GPU的整体偏好，是该公司游戏部门的另一个推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cde81f76201b5c7f5832202aaa17e08\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: bbc.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：bbc.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Implications for the Income Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对损益表的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> The perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>GPU需求的完美风暴和Nvidia在该领域的领先地位导致2021财年营收增长53%，2022财年迄今为止增长31%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ffb1f7cf418f4f8b264dd72a22fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，NVDA可能会维持这种高营收增长率，预计在2022财年之后会有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d980f7a5a4c4f88b24057841ca2db18b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"135\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA的远期增长率仅与其另一个GPU竞争对手AMD（AMD）相当，预计未来两个财年将以类似的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52527c42a41f66d31bcfaa80b46b1fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*从最近完成的财年收入到分析师对未来两个财年的一致收入估计的复合年增长率资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管AMD的股价大幅受益于强劲的GPU需求及其最近重返CPU舞台，但英伟达仍保持了行业领先的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/925c87e1ab20aef8c57bacc0190ac528\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research &amp; Development expenses.</p><p><blockquote>这使得NVDA在研发费用上的支出明显高于竞争对手AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176479e69a17e33e4ff51eecb22a9d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&amp;D investments.</p><p><blockquote>即使根据规模进行调整，英伟达在研发投资上的支出也一直超过AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9947f932bee0cdc8168c3ba93b08cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.</p><p><blockquote>虽然目前英伟达的有机增长机会似乎无穷无尽，但半导体行业仍然具有高度周期性，甚至GPU需求迟早会降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb65f1081a7a5a1b44babd5de7c1a63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用fred.stlouisfed.org和semi.org的数据编写</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么即使在GPU短缺的情况下，英伟达管理层仍通过战略收购ARM来利用其极高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811811f1ac57020a31ee1c4834476b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达将收购ARM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p>   Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of   <i>$21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stock</i>and $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.    <i>Source:nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>  The ARM deal, which is still under&nbsp;review&nbsp;by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据已获得英伟达、SBG和Arm董事会批准的交易条款，英伟达将向软银支付总计<i>价值215亿美元的英伟达普通股</i>以及120亿美元现金，其中包括签约时应付的20亿美元。<i>资料来源：nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>目前仍在接受监管机构审查的ARM交易也是2020年最大的科技交易之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6ec9cdf0fffb8d9ce13f7818ea7500\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: cbinsights.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：cbinsights.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to high M&amp;A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>除了高并购活动是市场估值见顶的迹象之外，分析师对英伟达的情绪也异常乐观，这表明近期增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a011c8086483c73b9bb116684f5402d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The value conundrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价值难题</b></blockquote></p><p> As rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管NVDA目前的一切看起来都很美好，但即使考虑到Nvidia的强大定位，价格也应该太高了。到目前为止，随着增长加速，该公司的市盈率也在加速，这表明未来的情况更加乐观。然而，英伟达的利润和市盈率都不可能永远处于上升轨道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7cb10de1973f49703e0262aeca3b12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，我们有一些充分的理由相信，即使面对该行业的周期性，每股收益（EPS）的增长也将暂时持续。但在如此高的估值下，每股收益增长所附带的溢价对于未来回报更为重要。换句话说，英伟达的利润甚至可能达到最乐观的预测，但如果为高增长支付的溢价下降，股价仍可能令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> As we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前看到的，目前NVDA和AMD都是半导体同行中增长最快的两家公司，因此获得了相应较高的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a02fe38521c886f802828f1a86480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.</p><p><blockquote>由于英伟达的领先地位和较高的盈利能力，该公司位于上图的趋势线上方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，如果我们排除高速发展的GPU公司，其他同行之间的R平方仅为0.12，这意味着未来增长与半导体领域除GPU以外的所有产品的估值之间没有很强的关系空间。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).</p><p><blockquote>这是因为NVDA和AMD芯片预计将在明年之后实现更持续的增长，因为GPU对于数据中心、汽车、数字货币和许多其他与人工智能(AI)相关的工作负载仍然至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着NVDA和AMD是样本中久期最高的股票，因此对利率变化最敏感。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，如果利率上升，NVDA和AMD的股价将比同行遭受更严重的打击。</blockquote></p><p> That is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么NVDA市销率落后于受长期债券收益率影响的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a706f8ec1fe650806ddbf2b3730c659\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，TLT很好地解释了Nvidia市盈率的变动，但2018年最后一个季度除外，当时与加密货币相关的需求对公司的营收产生了深远的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First,   <i>post crypto inventory of GPUs</i>in the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.    Second,   <i>deteriorating macro economic conditions,</i>impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.    Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript  This also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1&nbsp;split&nbsp;adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.</p><p><blockquote>三个因素导致第四季度游戏收入下降。首先，<i>GPU加密后清单</i>在渠道中导致我们减少出货量，以便让多余的渠道库存通过销售。我们预计渠道库存将在第一季度正常化，符合我们在之前的收益看涨期权中概述的一到两个季度的时间表。第二，<i>宏观经济状况恶化，</i>影响消费者对我们GPU的需求；第三，使用我们新图灵架构的某些高端GPU（包括GeForce RTX 2080和2070）的销量低于我们对新架构推出的预期。资料来源：Nvidia 2019财年第四季度收益记录这也凸显了Nvidia股价对加密货币相关需求的宏观经济状况的敏感性，因为股价从2018年9月的70美元左右（4比1分割调整后）减半至35美元左右次年1月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The elephant in the room</b></p><p><blockquote><b>房间里的大象</b></blockquote></p><p> The unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).</p><p><blockquote>股票市场前所未有的流动性对高增长动力股票来说是一个福音，这是过去十年市场表现最好的领域之一。这就是为什么值得注意的是，较低的利率对动量股的回报有着深远的影响（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> In the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p><p><blockquote>在下图中，我通过持有iShares Edge MSCI USA动量因子ETF(MTUM)的多头头寸和iShares Edge MSCI USA价值因子ETF(VLUE)的空头头寸来衡量动量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2664fc3740387f87d6aa32f635ed3dd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融和fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，动量股成为2020年市场表现最好的领域之一也就不足为奇了，当时10年期政府债券的名义收益率跌至1%以下。在此期间，英伟达股价从1月份的60美元左右（拆分后）上涨了一倍多，达到同年12月的130美元。尽管该公司并未成为MTUM的最大持股公司，但其股价受到动量因素表现的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb70e63d6055785d63a4d52fd5f41b73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: ishares.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ishares.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，Nvidia与动量因子（MTUM减去VLUE）的关系变得更加牢固，其股价创下历史新高，滚动1年日回报率R平方徘徊在0.35以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30576794833fa9f35403aac0c68767b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as&nbsp;constructed&nbsp;by Fama &amp; French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.</p><p><blockquote>由于这可能看起来是一个巧合，Fama&amp;French构建的NVDA和动量因子之间的关系也遵循了与上面使用的类似的模式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae61fb668ca8d5dcca59f74af5a02af7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance &amp; Fama &amp; French</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*截至2021年6月30日，由于缺乏最新数据来源：由作者使用雅虎！金融&amp;Fama&amp;法语</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达对动量因素的敞口也比AMD、特斯拉（TSLA）和蔚来（蔚来）等其他高速增长的公司强得多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5dac0e96644db66820dce414e647ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达是从近期利率下降中受益最多的成长型股票之一，因此，如果债券收益率正常化，英伟达面临大幅逆转的风险最高。再加上加密货币挖矿需求下降的风险，英伟达股价继续跑赢大盘的前景看起来很渺茫。这就是为什么，如果英伟达的股价未来令人失望，即使管理层继续实施其战略，投资者也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储总是有可能无法缩减规模并将债券收益率带到更正常的水平，这本身就足以推动英伟达的股价创下历史新高。尽管如此，这是一个高度不确定的事件，也与英伟达的业务表现无关。此外，这一事件的结果对英伟达未来股价表现的影响可能会比该公司产品的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 19:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.</li>  <li>Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.</li>  <li>Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达是半导体领域无可争议的领导者，拥有最赚钱的商业模式之一。</li><li>投资者的注意力通常集中在公司强大的产品路线图上，但现在与股价表现的相关性较小。</li><li>由于其独特的定位，英伟达的股价现在对整个市场的力量比对公司的业务基本面更敏感。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers &amp; cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization &amp; cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(NVDA)从几年前一家相对较小的游戏公司，现已成为全球最重要的科技企业之一。从数据中心&amp;云计算、无人驾驶汽车和各种人工智能计算工作负载，到游戏、可视化&amp;加密货币挖掘，Nvidia产品现在是新数字经济的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Not only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的知识产权不仅在新数字时代具有独特的地位，而且该公司还是图形处理单元(GPU)领域无可争议的领导者，拥有非常宽的护城河。这导致了英伟达的成功故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9ac68b953baa8a700911e6d0bae74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，展望未来，即使业务基本面有所改善，股价回报也可能令人失望。看来，某些全市场风险现在正在主导英伟达股价，可能会让许多英伟达股东措手不及。但在我们深入探讨这一点之前，我们需要适当考虑该公司的领先地位业务潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>All about GPUs demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于GPU需求的一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏部门仍然在英伟达的业务中占据相当大的比例，但在短短四年的时间里，数据中心的规模已经变得同样重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c28b9183a9848e6736b81b6d2a9c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达2021年年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>似乎已经在进行的更多基于云的工作负载的趋势还不够，当前的疫情显著加速了整体需求。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f8090d5c3afcbca0034dc19ebf87cd\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>除了数据中心之外，汽车行业也渴望英伟达的芯片，这使得该公司深深地融入了汽车生态系统。</blockquote></p><p>   NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.    Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e19c38b0c31479f3ca070abe62f088d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote>英伟达正在与汽车生态系统中的数百家合作伙伴合作，包括汽车制造商、卡车制造商、一级供应商、传感器制造商、汽车研究机构、高清地图公司和初创公司，为自动驾驶汽车开发和部署人工智能系统。资料来源：英伟达2021年年报<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NVIDIA 2021年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall&nbsp;preference&nbsp;for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，游戏玩家和加密货币矿工之间的拉锯战导致了英伟达GPU的销量增加和定价上涨。加密货币挖矿能耗的上升，加上对Nvidia GPU的整体偏好，是该公司游戏部门的另一个推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cde81f76201b5c7f5832202aaa17e08\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: bbc.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：bbc.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Implications for the Income Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对损益表的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> The perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>GPU需求的完美风暴和Nvidia在该领域的领先地位导致2021财年营收增长53%，2022财年迄今为止增长31%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ffb1f7cf418f4f8b264dd72a22fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，NVDA可能会维持这种高营收增长率，预计在2022财年之后会有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d980f7a5a4c4f88b24057841ca2db18b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"135\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA的远期增长率仅与其另一个GPU竞争对手AMD（AMD）相当，预计未来两个财年将以类似的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52527c42a41f66d31bcfaa80b46b1fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*从最近完成的财年收入到分析师对未来两个财年的一致收入估计的复合年增长率资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管AMD的股价大幅受益于强劲的GPU需求及其最近重返CPU舞台，但英伟达仍保持了行业领先的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/925c87e1ab20aef8c57bacc0190ac528\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research &amp; Development expenses.</p><p><blockquote>这使得NVDA在研发费用上的支出明显高于竞争对手AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176479e69a17e33e4ff51eecb22a9d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&amp;D investments.</p><p><blockquote>即使根据规模进行调整，英伟达在研发投资上的支出也一直超过AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9947f932bee0cdc8168c3ba93b08cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.</p><p><blockquote>虽然目前英伟达的有机增长机会似乎无穷无尽，但半导体行业仍然具有高度周期性，甚至GPU需求迟早会降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb65f1081a7a5a1b44babd5de7c1a63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用fred.stlouisfed.org和semi.org的数据编写</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么即使在GPU短缺的情况下，英伟达管理层仍通过战略收购ARM来利用其极高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811811f1ac57020a31ee1c4834476b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达将收购ARM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p>   Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of   <i>$21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stock</i>and $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.    <i>Source:nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>  The ARM deal, which is still under&nbsp;review&nbsp;by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据已获得英伟达、SBG和Arm董事会批准的交易条款，英伟达将向软银支付总计<i>价值215亿美元的英伟达普通股</i>以及120亿美元现金，其中包括签约时应付的20亿美元。<i>资料来源：nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>目前仍在接受监管机构审查的ARM交易也是2020年最大的科技交易之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6ec9cdf0fffb8d9ce13f7818ea7500\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: cbinsights.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：cbinsights.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to high M&amp;A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>除了高并购活动是市场估值见顶的迹象之外，分析师对英伟达的情绪也异常乐观，这表明近期增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a011c8086483c73b9bb116684f5402d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The value conundrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价值难题</b></blockquote></p><p> As rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管NVDA目前的一切看起来都很美好，但即使考虑到Nvidia的强大定位，价格也应该太高了。到目前为止，随着增长加速，该公司的市盈率也在加速，这表明未来的情况更加乐观。然而，英伟达的利润和市盈率都不可能永远处于上升轨道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7cb10de1973f49703e0262aeca3b12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，我们有一些充分的理由相信，即使面对该行业的周期性，每股收益（EPS）的增长也将暂时持续。但在如此高的估值下，每股收益增长所附带的溢价对于未来回报更为重要。换句话说，英伟达的利润甚至可能达到最乐观的预测，但如果为高增长支付的溢价下降，股价仍可能令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> As we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前看到的，目前NVDA和AMD都是半导体同行中增长最快的两家公司，因此获得了相应较高的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a02fe38521c886f802828f1a86480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.</p><p><blockquote>由于英伟达的领先地位和较高的盈利能力，该公司位于上图的趋势线上方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，如果我们排除高速发展的GPU公司，其他同行之间的R平方仅为0.12，这意味着未来增长与半导体领域除GPU以外的所有产品的估值之间没有很强的关系空间。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).</p><p><blockquote>这是因为NVDA和AMD芯片预计将在明年之后实现更持续的增长，因为GPU对于数据中心、汽车、数字货币和许多其他与人工智能(AI)相关的工作负载仍然至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着NVDA和AMD是样本中久期最高的股票，因此对利率变化最敏感。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，如果利率上升，NVDA和AMD的股价将比同行遭受更严重的打击。</blockquote></p><p> That is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么NVDA市销率落后于受长期债券收益率影响的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a706f8ec1fe650806ddbf2b3730c659\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，TLT很好地解释了Nvidia市盈率的变动，但2018年最后一个季度除外，当时与加密货币相关的需求对公司的营收产生了深远的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First,   <i>post crypto inventory of GPUs</i>in the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.    Second,   <i>deteriorating macro economic conditions,</i>impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.    Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript  This also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1&nbsp;split&nbsp;adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.</p><p><blockquote>三个因素导致第四季度游戏收入下降。首先，<i>GPU加密后清单</i>在渠道中导致我们减少出货量，以便让多余的渠道库存通过销售。我们预计渠道库存将在第一季度正常化，符合我们在之前的收益看涨期权中概述的一到两个季度的时间表。第二，<i>宏观经济状况恶化，</i>影响消费者对我们GPU的需求；第三，使用我们新图灵架构的某些高端GPU（包括GeForce RTX 2080和2070）的销量低于我们对新架构推出的预期。资料来源：Nvidia 2019财年第四季度收益记录这也凸显了Nvidia股价对加密货币相关需求的宏观经济状况的敏感性，因为股价从2018年9月的70美元左右（4比1分割调整后）减半至35美元左右次年1月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The elephant in the room</b></p><p><blockquote><b>房间里的大象</b></blockquote></p><p> The unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).</p><p><blockquote>股票市场前所未有的流动性对高增长动力股票来说是一个福音，这是过去十年市场表现最好的领域之一。这就是为什么值得注意的是，较低的利率对动量股的回报有着深远的影响（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> In the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p><p><blockquote>在下图中，我通过持有iShares Edge MSCI USA动量因子ETF(MTUM)的多头头寸和iShares Edge MSCI USA价值因子ETF(VLUE)的空头头寸来衡量动量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2664fc3740387f87d6aa32f635ed3dd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融和fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，动量股成为2020年市场表现最好的领域之一也就不足为奇了，当时10年期政府债券的名义收益率跌至1%以下。在此期间，英伟达股价从1月份的60美元左右（拆分后）上涨了一倍多，达到同年12月的130美元。尽管该公司并未成为MTUM的最大持股公司，但其股价受到动量因素表现的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb70e63d6055785d63a4d52fd5f41b73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: ishares.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ishares.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，Nvidia与动量因子（MTUM减去VLUE）的关系变得更加牢固，其股价创下历史新高，滚动1年日回报率R平方徘徊在0.35以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30576794833fa9f35403aac0c68767b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as&nbsp;constructed&nbsp;by Fama &amp; French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.</p><p><blockquote>由于这可能看起来是一个巧合，Fama&amp;French构建的NVDA和动量因子之间的关系也遵循了与上面使用的类似的模式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae61fb668ca8d5dcca59f74af5a02af7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance &amp; Fama &amp; French</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*截至2021年6月30日，由于缺乏最新数据来源：由作者使用雅虎！金融&amp;Fama&amp;法语</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达对动量因素的敞口也比AMD、特斯拉（TSLA）和蔚来（蔚来）等其他高速增长的公司强得多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5dac0e96644db66820dce414e647ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达是从近期利率下降中受益最多的成长型股票之一，因此，如果债券收益率正常化，英伟达面临大幅逆转的风险最高。再加上加密货币挖矿需求下降的风险，英伟达股价继续跑赢大盘的前景看起来很渺茫。这就是为什么，如果英伟达的股价未来令人失望，即使管理层继续实施其战略，投资者也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储总是有可能无法缩减规模并将债券收益率带到更正常的水平，这本身就足以推动英伟达的股价创下历史新高。尽管如此，这是一个高度不确定的事件，也与英伟达的业务表现无关。此外，这一事件的结果对英伟达未来股价表现的影响可能会比该公司产品的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132437771","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.\nInvestors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.\nDue to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.\n\nwellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nFrom a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers & cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization & cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.\nNot only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.\nData by YCharts\nGoing forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.\nAll about GPUs demand\nEven though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nAs if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.\n\nIn addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.\n\n NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021\n\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nLast but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall preference for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.\nSource: bbc.com\nImplications for the Income Statement\nThe perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nGoing forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.\n* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nHowever, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.\nData by YCharts\nThis allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research & Development expenses.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nEven adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&D investments.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nWhile organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org\nThat is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.\nSource: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation\n\n Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of \n $21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stockand $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.\n\n\nSource:nvidianews.nvidia.com\n\nThe ARM deal, which is still under review by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.\nSource: cbinsights.com\nIn addition to high M&A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe value conundrum\nAs rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.\nData by YCharts\nAfter everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.\nAs we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nDue to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.\nInterestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.\nThis is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).\nThis also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.\nThat is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.\nData by YCharts\nIn the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.\n\n Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, \n post crypto inventory of GPUsin the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.\n\n\n Second, \n deteriorating macro economic conditions,impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript\n\nThis also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1 split adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.\nThe elephant in the room\nThe unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).\nIn the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org\nAfter everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.\nSource: ishares.com\nNvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nSince this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as constructed by Fama & French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.\n* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance & Fama & French\nNvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nNvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.\nOf course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":842117169,"gmtCreate":1636155550624,"gmtModify":1636155551032,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842117169","repostId":"2181746364","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197521416,"gmtCreate":1621474596435,"gmtModify":1634188869849,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197521416","repostId":"1129952039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129952039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621466041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129952039?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-20 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129952039","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>在会议纪要发布后，标普500加剧了损失，一些美联储政策制定者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，在即将举行的会议上“在某个时候”开始讨论美联储每月购买国债的规模将变得适当，这是一项旨在保持长期利率较低的政策。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>比尔·诺西(Bill Northey)表示：“参与者以及美联储工作人员仍然认为，这些开始变得明显的通胀压力在他们看来仍将是暂时的，并且可能会随着我们过渡到2022年而消退。”明尼阿波利斯合众银行财富管理公司高级投资总监。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证价格上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了人们的担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大主要股指在早盘大幅低开后均触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给其带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌164.62点，跌幅0.48%，至33,896.04点；标普500下跌12.15点，跌幅0.29%，至4,115.68点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.90点，跌幅0.03%，至13,299.74点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为107亿股，而过去20个交易日全交易日平均成交量为106亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>在中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了30%和45%，但在它们的两个最大支持者——特斯拉公司首席执行官Elon Musk和Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood——之后，它们在下午交易中大幅止住了跌幅。重申了对比特币的支持。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商Coinbase Global、矿商Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.15比1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下3个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高，49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿件包裹市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS超过预期0.04美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司L Brands实现季度盈利</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司Synopsys超额完成第二财季目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后美国股市下跌，加密货币下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 07:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街主要股指周三收低，此前美联储4月份会议纪要显示，与会者一致认为美国经济仍远未达到央行的目标，一些人正在考虑讨论缩减债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p><blockquote>在会议纪要发布后，标普500加剧了损失，一些美联储政策制定者认为，如果经济继续快速增长，在即将举行的会议上“在某个时候”开始讨论美联储每月购买国债的规模将变得适当，这是一项旨在保持长期利率较低的政策。</blockquote></p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p><blockquote>比尔·诺西(Bill Northey)表示：“参与者以及美联储工作人员仍然认为，这些开始变得明显的通胀压力在他们看来仍将是暂时的，并且可能会随着我们过渡到2022年而消退。”明尼阿波利斯合众银行财富管理公司高级投资总监。</blockquote></p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员保证价格上涨将是暂时的，但最近几周强劲的通胀数据和工人短缺的迹象加剧了人们的担忧并扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p><blockquote>三大主要股指在早盘大幅低开后均触及盘中低点，随后在美联储会议纪要发布再次给其带来压力之前部分回升。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌164.62点，跌幅0.48%，至33,896.04点；标普500下跌12.15点，跌幅0.29%，至4,115.68点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.90点，跌幅0.03%，至13,299.74点。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为107亿股，而过去20个交易日全交易日平均成交量为106亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p><blockquote>在中国禁止金融和支付机构提供加密货币服务后，比特币和以太币暴跌，加剧了周三的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>这两种主要数字货币分别下跌了30%和45%，但在它们的两个最大支持者——特斯拉公司首席执行官Elon Musk和Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood——之后，它们在下午交易中大幅止住了跌幅。重申了对比特币的支持。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所运营商Coinbase Global、矿商Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings的股价周三大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.15比1；在纳斯达克，1.71比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下3个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下34个新高，49个新低。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>金融的</i></b><b> </b><b><i>报告</i></b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">45亿件包裹市场份额扩大至20.4%</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS超过预期0.04美元，营收超过预期</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">随着销售额增长，维多利亚的秘密母公司L Brands实现季度盈利</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致成本上升影响盈利前景，思科股价下跌</a></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">芯片设计软件公司Synopsys超额完成第二财季目标</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129952039","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.The S&P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.Financial Report4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenueVictoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales riseCisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlookChip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":872618300,"gmtCreate":1637502024359,"gmtModify":1637502024543,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872618300","repostId":"2184782893","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876762332,"gmtCreate":1637366607630,"gmtModify":1637366608207,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876762332","repostId":"1114542201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114542201","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637335740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114542201?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing Dreamliner Defects Bog Down Production<blockquote>波音梦想飞机缺陷导致生产陷入困境</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114542201","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading as Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.\n\nBoein","content":"<p>Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.</p><p><blockquote>由于波音梦想飞机的叛逃导致生产陷入困境，波音股价在早盘交易中下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6c1e62a6a6a253da601f54af830508\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Boeing&nbsp;Co.&nbsp;has further slowed production of 787 Dreamliners as&nbsp;it addresses defects&nbsp;that&nbsp;are delaying deliveries of new jets&nbsp;and complicating airlines’ plans, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音公司进一步放缓了787梦想飞机的生产，以解决导致新飞机交付延迟并使航空公司计划复杂化的缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> The plane maker is holding off completing the new wide-body jets at its North Charleston, S.C., factory as workers and engineers address problems related to areas surrounding passenger and cargo doors on aircraft already under construction, these people said.</p><p><blockquote>这些人士说，这家飞机制造商正在推迟在南卡罗来纳州北查尔斯顿工厂完成新的宽体喷气式飞机，因为工人和工程师正在解决与已经在建造的飞机上乘客和货舱门周围区域相关的问题。</blockquote></p><p> The latest production slowdown began in recent days and could last a few weeks as Boeing seeks expertise from other aerospace manufacturers in addressing the door issue, some of these people said. In late October, Boeing disclosed it was producing about two Dreamliners a month, down from a planned monthly rate of five,to resolve production issues.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些人表示，最近一次生产放缓是在最近几天开始的，可能会持续几周，因为波音公司正在向其他航空航天制造商寻求解决门问题的专业知识。10月下旬，波音公司透露，为了解决生产问题，每月生产约两架梦想飞机，低于计划的每月五架。</blockquote></p><p> A string of production snafus has hampered Boeing’s ability to deliver new Dreamliners for much of the last year, fueling the manufacturer’s financial losses and making it difficult for airlines to build schedules for jets often used in international travel. The plane maker has faced increased scrutiny internally, by air-safety regulators and lawmakers after two of its 737 MAX jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, claiming 346 lives.</p><p><blockquote>去年的大部分时间里，一系列生产混乱阻碍了波音公司交付新梦想飞机的能力，加剧了制造商的财务损失，并使航空公司难以为经常用于国际旅行的喷气式飞机制定时刻表。在2018年和2019年两架737 MAX喷气式飞机坠毁、造成346人死亡后，这家飞机制造商在内部面临着航空安全监管机构和立法者更严格的审查。</blockquote></p><p> A Boeing spokeswoman said work continues at its Dreamliner factory and production “rates will continue to be dynamic” as the manufacturer focuses on resuming normal assembly, performs inspections and repairs finished aircraft awaiting delivery.</p><p><blockquote>波音发言人表示，其梦想飞机工厂的工作仍在继续，随着制造商专注于恢复正常组装、进行检查和维修等待交付的成品飞机，生产率“将继续保持动态”。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing is increasingly likely to restart handing over new Dreamliners to its customers in February or March at the earliest, longer than previously anticipated, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音越来越有可能最早在2月或3月重新开始向客户交付新的梦想飞机，时间比之前预期的要长。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been seeking Federal Aviation Administration approval for its proposed pre-delivery inspections to ensure new aircraft meet federal rules and match Boeing’s regulator-approved designs. An FAA spokesman said the agency won’t sign off on inspections until its safety experts are satisfied.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一直在寻求联邦航空管理局批准其拟议的交付前检查，以确保新飞机符合联邦规则并符合波音监管机构批准的设计。美国联邦航空局发言人表示，在安全专家满意之前，该机构不会批准检查。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a case of us looking at every single aspect of design and manufacturing with the airplane, making sure that we’re complying, we’re conforming to the design and we will bring that airplane back as soon as that makes sense,” Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s commercial sales chief, said Nov. 13 at an air show in Dubai.</p><p><blockquote>“在这个案例中，我们审视了飞机设计和制造的每一个方面，确保我们符合，我们符合设计，我们将尽快将飞机带回来，”波音商业销售主管Ihssane Mounir 11月13日在迪拜举行的航展上表示。</blockquote></p><p> In an Oct. 27 call with analysts, Chief Executive David Calhoun said&nbsp;defective titanium parts&nbsp;were the “long pole in the tent” among remaining production problems to address.</p><p><blockquote>在10月27日与分析师举行的看涨期权上，首席执行官David Calhoun表示，在剩余需要解决的生产问题中，有缺陷的钛零件是“帐篷里的长杆”。</blockquote></p><p> The door issue has since emerged as the most vexing among Boeing’s 787 problems, people familiar with the matter said. Other defects being addressed are related to items such as certain aluminum parts and windows, some of these people said. Boeing&nbsp;has largely been dealing with tiny gaps&nbsp;where sections of the aircraft join together. Such gaps could lead to premature fatigue that may require repairs sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，门问题已成为波音787问题中最令人烦恼的问题。其中一些人表示，正在解决的其他缺陷与某些铝制部件和窗户等物品有关。波音公司在很大程度上一直在处理飞机各部分连接在一起的微小间隙。这种间隙可能导致过早疲劳，可能需要比预期更快地修复。</blockquote></p><p> The Boeing spokeswoman said the company is confident its approach would lead to stability in its 787 production. “We are taking the time needed to ensure the highest levels of quality,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>波音发言人表示，该公司相信其方法将导致787生产的稳定。“我们正在花时间确保最高水平的质量，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> None of the defects being addressed pose immediate safety concerns with Dreamliners currently flying, the Boeing spokeswoman said.</p><p><blockquote>波音发言人表示，正在解决的缺陷都不会对目前飞行的梦想飞机造成直接的安全问题。</blockquote></p><p> With deliveries largely halted since October 2020, the Chicago-based aerospace giant said it had built up an inventory of 105 Dreamliners as of the end of the third quarter this year, according to securities filings. The undelivered jets are worth more than $25 billion.</p><p><blockquote>证券备案文件显示，自2020年10月以来，交付基本停止，这家总部位于芝加哥的航空航天巨头表示，截至今年第三季度末，该公司已建立了105架梦想飞机的库存。未交付的飞机价值超过250亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The delivery halt has choked off an important source of cash flow for Boeing as it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic’s blow to aircraft demand. It is also complicating airlines’ plans as international travel rebounds. Dreamliners are Boeing’s flagship wide-body jets and are often used on long-haul flights.</p><p><blockquote>由于新冠病毒大流行对飞机需求的打击，波音公司的一个重要现金流来源被切断了。随着国际旅行的反弹，这也使航空公司的计划变得更加复杂。梦想飞机是波音公司的旗舰宽体喷气式飞机，经常用于长途飞行。</blockquote></p><p> American Airlines Group&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;said it had trimmed its flying plans due to the delayed arrival of its new 787s.</p><p><blockquote>美国航空集团公司表示，由于新型787飞机延迟抵达，该公司已削减飞行计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Due to the continued uncertainty in the delivery schedule, we have proactively removed these aircraft from our winter schedule to minimize potential passenger disruption,” Derek Kerr, the airline’s finance chief, said on an Oct. 21 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>该航空公司财务主管Derek Kerr在10月21日的财报看涨期权上表示：“由于交付计划持续存在不确定性，我们已主动将这些飞机从冬季计划中删除，以尽量减少潜在的乘客干扰。”</blockquote></p><p> The FAA launched a broad review of Boeing’s Dreamliner production in late 2020.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦航空局于2020年底启动了对波音梦想飞机生产的广泛审查。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. House Transportation Committee and its aviation subcommittee requested that the Department of Transportation’s inspector general review the FAA’s manufacturing oversight and “the effectiveness of the FAA’s actions to resolve 787 production issues,” according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>根据《华尔街日报》查阅的一封信，周四，美国众议院运输委员会及其航空小组委员会的民主党和共和党领导人要求交通部监察长审查FAA的制造监督以及“FAA解决787生产问题行动的有效性”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Representatives of the DOT’s inspector general’s office didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>交通部监察长办公室的代表没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing Dreamliner Defects Bog Down Production<blockquote>波音梦想飞机缺陷导致生产陷入困境</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing Dreamliner Defects Bog Down Production<blockquote>波音梦想飞机缺陷导致生产陷入困境</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-19 23:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.</p><p><blockquote>由于波音梦想飞机的叛逃导致生产陷入困境，波音股价在早盘交易中下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6c1e62a6a6a253da601f54af830508\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Boeing&nbsp;Co.&nbsp;has further slowed production of 787 Dreamliners as&nbsp;it addresses defects&nbsp;that&nbsp;are delaying deliveries of new jets&nbsp;and complicating airlines’ plans, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音公司进一步放缓了787梦想飞机的生产，以解决导致新飞机交付延迟并使航空公司计划复杂化的缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> The plane maker is holding off completing the new wide-body jets at its North Charleston, S.C., factory as workers and engineers address problems related to areas surrounding passenger and cargo doors on aircraft already under construction, these people said.</p><p><blockquote>这些人士说，这家飞机制造商正在推迟在南卡罗来纳州北查尔斯顿工厂完成新的宽体喷气式飞机，因为工人和工程师正在解决与已经在建造的飞机上乘客和货舱门周围区域相关的问题。</blockquote></p><p> The latest production slowdown began in recent days and could last a few weeks as Boeing seeks expertise from other aerospace manufacturers in addressing the door issue, some of these people said. In late October, Boeing disclosed it was producing about two Dreamliners a month, down from a planned monthly rate of five,to resolve production issues.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些人表示，最近一次生产放缓是在最近几天开始的，可能会持续几周，因为波音公司正在向其他航空航天制造商寻求解决门问题的专业知识。10月下旬，波音公司透露，为了解决生产问题，每月生产约两架梦想飞机，低于计划的每月五架。</blockquote></p><p> A string of production snafus has hampered Boeing’s ability to deliver new Dreamliners for much of the last year, fueling the manufacturer’s financial losses and making it difficult for airlines to build schedules for jets often used in international travel. The plane maker has faced increased scrutiny internally, by air-safety regulators and lawmakers after two of its 737 MAX jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, claiming 346 lives.</p><p><blockquote>去年的大部分时间里，一系列生产混乱阻碍了波音公司交付新梦想飞机的能力，加剧了制造商的财务损失，并使航空公司难以为经常用于国际旅行的喷气式飞机制定时刻表。在2018年和2019年两架737 MAX喷气式飞机坠毁、造成346人死亡后，这家飞机制造商在内部面临着航空安全监管机构和立法者更严格的审查。</blockquote></p><p> A Boeing spokeswoman said work continues at its Dreamliner factory and production “rates will continue to be dynamic” as the manufacturer focuses on resuming normal assembly, performs inspections and repairs finished aircraft awaiting delivery.</p><p><blockquote>波音发言人表示，其梦想飞机工厂的工作仍在继续，随着制造商专注于恢复正常组装、进行检查和维修等待交付的成品飞机，生产率“将继续保持动态”。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing is increasingly likely to restart handing over new Dreamliners to its customers in February or March at the earliest, longer than previously anticipated, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音越来越有可能最早在2月或3月重新开始向客户交付新的梦想飞机，时间比之前预期的要长。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been seeking Federal Aviation Administration approval for its proposed pre-delivery inspections to ensure new aircraft meet federal rules and match Boeing’s regulator-approved designs. An FAA spokesman said the agency won’t sign off on inspections until its safety experts are satisfied.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一直在寻求联邦航空管理局批准其拟议的交付前检查，以确保新飞机符合联邦规则并符合波音监管机构批准的设计。美国联邦航空局发言人表示，在安全专家满意之前，该机构不会批准检查。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a case of us looking at every single aspect of design and manufacturing with the airplane, making sure that we’re complying, we’re conforming to the design and we will bring that airplane back as soon as that makes sense,” Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s commercial sales chief, said Nov. 13 at an air show in Dubai.</p><p><blockquote>“在这个案例中，我们审视了飞机设计和制造的每一个方面，确保我们符合，我们符合设计，我们将尽快将飞机带回来，”波音商业销售主管Ihssane Mounir 11月13日在迪拜举行的航展上表示。</blockquote></p><p> In an Oct. 27 call with analysts, Chief Executive David Calhoun said&nbsp;defective titanium parts&nbsp;were the “long pole in the tent” among remaining production problems to address.</p><p><blockquote>在10月27日与分析师举行的看涨期权上，首席执行官David Calhoun表示，在剩余需要解决的生产问题中，有缺陷的钛零件是“帐篷里的长杆”。</blockquote></p><p> The door issue has since emerged as the most vexing among Boeing’s 787 problems, people familiar with the matter said. Other defects being addressed are related to items such as certain aluminum parts and windows, some of these people said. Boeing&nbsp;has largely been dealing with tiny gaps&nbsp;where sections of the aircraft join together. Such gaps could lead to premature fatigue that may require repairs sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，门问题已成为波音787问题中最令人烦恼的问题。其中一些人表示，正在解决的其他缺陷与某些铝制部件和窗户等物品有关。波音公司在很大程度上一直在处理飞机各部分连接在一起的微小间隙。这种间隙可能导致过早疲劳，可能需要比预期更快地修复。</blockquote></p><p> The Boeing spokeswoman said the company is confident its approach would lead to stability in its 787 production. “We are taking the time needed to ensure the highest levels of quality,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>波音发言人表示，该公司相信其方法将导致787生产的稳定。“我们正在花时间确保最高水平的质量，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> None of the defects being addressed pose immediate safety concerns with Dreamliners currently flying, the Boeing spokeswoman said.</p><p><blockquote>波音发言人表示，正在解决的缺陷都不会对目前飞行的梦想飞机造成直接的安全问题。</blockquote></p><p> With deliveries largely halted since October 2020, the Chicago-based aerospace giant said it had built up an inventory of 105 Dreamliners as of the end of the third quarter this year, according to securities filings. The undelivered jets are worth more than $25 billion.</p><p><blockquote>证券备案文件显示，自2020年10月以来，交付基本停止，这家总部位于芝加哥的航空航天巨头表示，截至今年第三季度末，该公司已建立了105架梦想飞机的库存。未交付的飞机价值超过250亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The delivery halt has choked off an important source of cash flow for Boeing as it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic’s blow to aircraft demand. It is also complicating airlines’ plans as international travel rebounds. Dreamliners are Boeing’s flagship wide-body jets and are often used on long-haul flights.</p><p><blockquote>由于新冠病毒大流行对飞机需求的打击，波音公司的一个重要现金流来源被切断了。随着国际旅行的反弹，这也使航空公司的计划变得更加复杂。梦想飞机是波音公司的旗舰宽体喷气式飞机，经常用于长途飞行。</blockquote></p><p> American Airlines Group&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;said it had trimmed its flying plans due to the delayed arrival of its new 787s.</p><p><blockquote>美国航空集团公司表示，由于新型787飞机延迟抵达，该公司已削减飞行计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Due to the continued uncertainty in the delivery schedule, we have proactively removed these aircraft from our winter schedule to minimize potential passenger disruption,” Derek Kerr, the airline’s finance chief, said on an Oct. 21 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>该航空公司财务主管Derek Kerr在10月21日的财报看涨期权上表示：“由于交付计划持续存在不确定性，我们已主动将这些飞机从冬季计划中删除，以尽量减少潜在的乘客干扰。”</blockquote></p><p> The FAA launched a broad review of Boeing’s Dreamliner production in late 2020.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦航空局于2020年底启动了对波音梦想飞机生产的广泛审查。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. House Transportation Committee and its aviation subcommittee requested that the Department of Transportation’s inspector general review the FAA’s manufacturing oversight and “the effectiveness of the FAA’s actions to resolve 787 production issues,” according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>根据《华尔街日报》查阅的一封信，周四，美国众议院运输委员会及其航空小组委员会的民主党和共和党领导人要求交通部监察长审查FAA的制造监督以及“FAA解决787生产问题行动的有效性”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Representatives of the DOT’s inspector general’s office didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>交通部监察长办公室的代表没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114542201","content_text":"Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading as Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.\n\nBoeing Co. has further slowed production of 787 Dreamliners as it addresses defects that are delaying deliveries of new jets and complicating airlines’ plans, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe plane maker is holding off completing the new wide-body jets at its North Charleston, S.C., factory as workers and engineers address problems related to areas surrounding passenger and cargo doors on aircraft already under construction, these people said.\nThe latest production slowdown began in recent days and could last a few weeks as Boeing seeks expertise from other aerospace manufacturers in addressing the door issue, some of these people said. In late October, Boeing disclosed it was producing about two Dreamliners a month, down from a planned monthly rate of five,to resolve production issues.\nA string of production snafus has hampered Boeing’s ability to deliver new Dreamliners for much of the last year, fueling the manufacturer’s financial losses and making it difficult for airlines to build schedules for jets often used in international travel. The plane maker has faced increased scrutiny internally, by air-safety regulators and lawmakers after two of its 737 MAX jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, claiming 346 lives.\nA Boeing spokeswoman said work continues at its Dreamliner factory and production “rates will continue to be dynamic” as the manufacturer focuses on resuming normal assembly, performs inspections and repairs finished aircraft awaiting delivery.\nBoeing is increasingly likely to restart handing over new Dreamliners to its customers in February or March at the earliest, longer than previously anticipated, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe company has been seeking Federal Aviation Administration approval for its proposed pre-delivery inspections to ensure new aircraft meet federal rules and match Boeing’s regulator-approved designs. An FAA spokesman said the agency won’t sign off on inspections until its safety experts are satisfied.\n“This is a case of us looking at every single aspect of design and manufacturing with the airplane, making sure that we’re complying, we’re conforming to the design and we will bring that airplane back as soon as that makes sense,” Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s commercial sales chief, said Nov. 13 at an air show in Dubai.\nIn an Oct. 27 call with analysts, Chief Executive David Calhoun said defective titanium parts were the “long pole in the tent” among remaining production problems to address.\nThe door issue has since emerged as the most vexing among Boeing’s 787 problems, people familiar with the matter said. Other defects being addressed are related to items such as certain aluminum parts and windows, some of these people said. Boeing has largely been dealing with tiny gaps where sections of the aircraft join together. Such gaps could lead to premature fatigue that may require repairs sooner than anticipated.\nThe Boeing spokeswoman said the company is confident its approach would lead to stability in its 787 production. “We are taking the time needed to ensure the highest levels of quality,” she said.\nNone of the defects being addressed pose immediate safety concerns with Dreamliners currently flying, the Boeing spokeswoman said.\nWith deliveries largely halted since October 2020, the Chicago-based aerospace giant said it had built up an inventory of 105 Dreamliners as of the end of the third quarter this year, according to securities filings. The undelivered jets are worth more than $25 billion.\nThe delivery halt has choked off an important source of cash flow for Boeing as it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic’s blow to aircraft demand. It is also complicating airlines’ plans as international travel rebounds. Dreamliners are Boeing’s flagship wide-body jets and are often used on long-haul flights.\nAmerican Airlines Group Inc. said it had trimmed its flying plans due to the delayed arrival of its new 787s.\n“Due to the continued uncertainty in the delivery schedule, we have proactively removed these aircraft from our winter schedule to minimize potential passenger disruption,” Derek Kerr, the airline’s finance chief, said on an Oct. 21 earnings call.\nThe FAA launched a broad review of Boeing’s Dreamliner production in late 2020.\nOn Thursday, Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. House Transportation Committee and its aviation subcommittee requested that the Department of Transportation’s inspector general review the FAA’s manufacturing oversight and “the effectiveness of the FAA’s actions to resolve 787 production issues,” according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.\nRepresentatives of the DOT’s inspector general’s office didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828199105,"gmtCreate":1633857435043,"gmtModify":1633857435202,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828199105","repostId":"2174892254","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867443069,"gmtCreate":1633310648934,"gmtModify":1633310649405,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867443069","repostId":"2172313961","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832027294,"gmtCreate":1629546562918,"gmtModify":1633684098767,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832027294","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","CDNS":"铿腾电子","QCOM":"高通","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSM":"台积电","ASML":"阿斯麦","SSNLF":"三星电子","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","SNPS":"新思科技","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153265863,"gmtCreate":1625028354952,"gmtModify":1633945653473,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153265863","repostId":"2147585034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123944190,"gmtCreate":1624407560910,"gmtModify":1634006640147,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment &amp; like&nbsp;pls","listText":"Comment &amp; like&nbsp;pls","text":"Comment & like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123944190","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189424524,"gmtCreate":1623286167168,"gmtModify":1634034994798,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189424524","repostId":"2142433322","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":848248775,"gmtCreate":1636006310163,"gmtModify":1636006381614,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848248775","repostId":"2180636457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858096231,"gmtCreate":1634951033549,"gmtModify":1634951263861,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858096231","repostId":"1172683205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889619816,"gmtCreate":1631145167735,"gmtModify":1631890304878,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889619816","repostId":"2166392072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891695109,"gmtCreate":1628384737301,"gmtModify":1633751364111,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891695109","repostId":"1139912651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}