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洪文馆
08-08
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
洪文馆
05-01
瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)持仓深度评估与风险提示
一、持仓分析 持仓概况 持有数量:77股,占总投资组合的 49.81% (显著集中)。 平均成本:32.64美元,当前股价32.77美元, 浮盈0.4% (约10.11美元)。 持仓周期:1天(短期交易特征)。 市场表现 最新股价:32.77美元(2025-05-01),较前日下跌4.18%,日内波动幅度5.5%(低至32.37,高至34.25美元)。 52周区间:17.28~38.03美元,当前处于中位水平,但近期股价接近年内低点(距高点-13.8%)。 估值指标: 市盈率(TTM) :25.99倍(行业平均约20倍,估值偏高); 市净率:5.80倍(反映市场对品牌溢价预期较高); 机构目标价:均值36.88美元(潜在上行空间12.5%)。 二、基本面与新闻动态 财务数据 2025Q1业绩:营收同比下降8.9%,净利润同比增长39.5%(成本优化或非经常性收益驱动)。 盈利能力:ROE 25.75%、ROA 10.26%(运营效率较高,但需关注持续性)。 现金流:近5日资本流动波动较大(04-28单日流入450万,但整体呈净流出趋势)。 行业与竞争 市场扩张:计划通过海南自贸港布局国际市场,但面临星巴克、本土新品牌(如霸王茶姬)的双向竞争压力。 消费渗透率:中国城市居民年均咖啡消费量仅20杯(日韩/美国超300杯),长期增长空间大但短期增速可能放缓。 风险事件 政策风险:反洗钱监管趋严(央行近期通报券商问题,或间接影响市场流动性)。 供应链压力:椰子原料需求激增(日销超200万杯生椰系列),供应链稳定性存疑。 三、风险评估与建议 核心风险 仓位集中度过高:单一股票占比近50%,组合波动性风险极大。 估值回调压力:当前PE/PB均高于行业均值,若业绩不及预期或市场情绪转弱,股价承压。 竞争加剧:低价策略可持续性存疑,新品牌分流用户风险上升。 操作建议 短期(1-3个月) :
瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)持仓深度评估与风险提示
洪文馆
05-01
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
洪文馆
2021-11-11
加油吧,看好这只票
洪文馆
2021-05-03
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@美股投资网:市场是由做市商和零售交易者这两个参与者组成的,做市商是银行和大金融机构,这些参与者是市场中最活跃的参与者,他们控制和操.纵市场,并随时随地推动价格。通过识别银行和大机构的交易方式,我们可以跟随他们的足迹的赚钱。如果你不知道市场如何运作,那么你将永远找不到能持续获利的方法。文章有点长,可以看视频。 如果我是机构投资者,要想做一支股票,首先我会经过大量的筛选,研究很多股的基本面,然后筛选出一定范围的几只股票,找到一支大小合适,有故事和炒作空间的股票。然后跟公司高级管理层接洽,找到愿意配合的公司,最后开始择机建仓。如何配合呢? 就是在我吸酬时,在财报时尽量将业绩放平,或者适当隐藏利润,这一点公司很容易做到,只要对报表进行适当调整就行了,例如,将某些损益一个季度提完,使报表看上去亏损;或者将后面数年的费用半年摊完,因为摊销和预收款之类的项目非常容易调整。经过一些调整后,使得公司财报并不引人注目,甚至让你对这家公司丧失信心,怀疑其成长性。这样就可以避免在砸盘过程中让一些重视基本面价值投资的投资者入场。01砸盘阶段在吸筹之前,我肯定是要进一些筹码的,也不用多,因为这些筹码主要用来砸盘的。怎么收集这些砸盘的筹码?我不会每天慢慢去收集,因为这样会使股票天天上涨,给人造成一种这票趋势不错啊的感觉,还能涨,反而难以收到足够的筹码,还容易被散户抢酬,使自己收集成本提高。比如来一个一天暴涨10%,20%,很多获利盘就出逃了。又或者在市场制作很多陷阱,诱导散户做空,通过砸盘来获得足够的低成本筹码。第二天来个低开。为什么要低开而不高开,因为我昨天收集的筹码并不准备获利,而且要让昨天追风进去的短线筹码帮我砸盘。在这个下跌途中,我将逐步用单托底,因为我要形成自己的底仓。经过几天的连续下跌,有些割肉的筹码就会回补自己的仓位,这时候我不能让他们回补,我必须迅速的吃上去让他们追风,当形成追风盘时,我将
洪文馆
2021-04-11
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@美股投资网: 金融市场只赚不赔的生意,Virtu Financial,全球最大的高频交易和做市商之一,曾经做到了4年只有1天亏损的成绩,那么它是如何做到的呢?高频交易又是如何“偷走” ...
洪文馆
2021-03-26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
洪文馆
2021-03-18
$Neos Therapeutics, Inc.(NEOS)$
看好你
洪文馆
2021-03-02
$Guardion Health Sciences(GHSI)$
潜伏到啦哈哈
洪文馆
2021-02-27
今年最牛,抓紧上车,大盘都没拉下来
洪文馆
2021-02-12
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
洪文馆
2021-02-12
大牛股来袭[开心]
洪文馆
2021-02-11
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
还是那句话,拿得住不错操作你才牛。
洪文馆
2021-02-11
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
有在等第一个1000%吗?
洪文馆
2021-02-11
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
好数字
洪文馆
2021-02-11
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
新年happly
洪文馆
2021-02-11
这个价最后的机会了[得意]
洪文馆
2021-02-11
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
洪文馆
2021-02-11
可以上车,看好你
洪文馆
2021-02-10
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
如何是好[得意]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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"htmlText":"<a 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平均成本:32.64美元,当前股价32.77美元, 浮盈0.4% (约10.11美元)。 持仓周期:1天(短期交易特征)。 市场表现 最新股价:32.77美元(2025-05-01),较前日下跌4.18%,日内波动幅度5.5%(低至32.37,高至34.25美元)。 52周区间:17.28~38.03美元,当前处于中位水平,但近期股价接近年内低点(距高点-13.8%)。 估值指标: 市盈率(TTM) :25.99倍(行业平均约20倍,估值偏高); 市净率:5.80倍(反映市场对品牌溢价预期较高); 机构目标价:均值36.88美元(潜在上行空间12.5%)。 二、基本面与新闻动态 财务数据 2025Q1业绩:营收同比下降8.9%,净利润同比增长39.5%(成本优化或非经常性收益驱动)。 盈利能力:ROE 25.75%、ROA 10.26%(运营效率较高,但需关注持续性)。 现金流:近5日资本流动波动较大(04-28单日流入450万,但整体呈净流出趋势)。 行业与竞争 市场扩张:计划通过海南自贸港布局国际市场,但面临星巴克、本土新品牌(如霸王茶姬)的双向竞争压力。 消费渗透率:中国城市居民年均咖啡消费量仅20杯(日韩/美国超300杯),长期增长空间大但短期增速可能放缓。 风险事件 政策风险:反洗钱监管趋严(央行近期通报券商问题,或间接影响市场流动性)。 供应链压力:椰子原料需求激增(日销超200万杯生椰系列),供应链稳定性存疑。 三、风险评估与建议 核心风险 仓位集中度过高:单一股票占比近50%,组合波动性风险极大。 估值回调压力:当前PE/PB均高于行业均值,若业绩不及预期或市场情绪转弱,股价承压。 竞争加剧:低价策略可持续性存疑,新品牌分流用户风险上升。 操作建议 短期(1-3个月) :","listText":"一、持仓分析 持仓概况 持有数量:77股,占总投资组合的 49.81% (显著集中)。 平均成本:32.64美元,当前股价32.77美元, 浮盈0.4% (约10.11美元)。 持仓周期:1天(短期交易特征)。 市场表现 最新股价:32.77美元(2025-05-01),较前日下跌4.18%,日内波动幅度5.5%(低至32.37,高至34.25美元)。 52周区间:17.28~38.03美元,当前处于中位水平,但近期股价接近年内低点(距高点-13.8%)。 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10.26%(运营效率较高,但需关注持续性)。 现金流:近5日资本流动波动较大(04-28单日流入450万,但整体呈净流出趋势)。 行业与竞争 市场扩张:计划通过海南自贸港布局国际市场,但面临星巴克、本土新品牌(如霸王茶姬)的双向竞争压力。 消费渗透率:中国城市居民年均咖啡消费量仅20杯(日韩/美国超300杯),长期增长空间大但短期增速可能放缓。 风险事件 政策风险:反洗钱监管趋严(央行近期通报券商问题,或间接影响市场流动性)。 供应链压力:椰子原料需求激增(日销超200万杯生椰系列),供应链稳定性存疑。 三、风险评估与建议 核心风险 仓位集中度过高:单一股票占比近50%,组合波动性风险极大。 估值回调压力:当前PE/PB均高于行业均值,若业绩不及预期或市场情绪转弱,股价承压。 竞争加剧:低价策略可持续性存疑,新品牌分流用户风险上升。 操作建议 短期(1-3个月) :","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430335232401440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558396741726680","authorId":"3558396741726680","name":"ZXFC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558396741726680","authorIdStr":"3558396741726680"},"content":"脑瘫不会算pe就别丢人现眼…","text":"脑瘫不会算pe就别丢人现眼…","html":"脑瘫不会算pe就别丢人现眼…"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430121970200816,"gmtCreate":1746031715164,"gmtModify":1746031719133,"author":{"id":"3568546886790835","authorId":"3568546886790835","name":"洪文馆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bae01e589d09e5257f674e3bcef2673","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568546886790835","authorIdStr":"3568546886790835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ </a> ","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562520fe819c17af602955fb0bde48cb","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430121970200816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":870995153,"gmtCreate":1636568086427,"gmtModify":1636568086427,"author":{"id":"3568546886790835","authorId":"3568546886790835","name":"洪文馆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bae01e589d09e5257f674e3bcef2673","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568546886790835","authorIdStr":"3568546886790835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油吧,看好这只票","listText":"加油吧,看好这只票","text":"加油吧,看好这只票","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42d7a9bc0736ab56c4e34943e78a602","width":"1125","height":"3450"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870995153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":108153393,"gmtCreate":1620006479212,"gmtModify":1620006479212,"author":{"id":"3568546886790835","authorId":"3568546886790835","name":"洪文馆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bae01e589d09e5257f674e3bcef2673","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568546886790835","authorIdStr":"3568546886790835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108153393","repostId":"108333263","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":108333263,"gmtCreate":1619999372252,"gmtModify":1620003394502,"author":{"id":"3478213283465426","authorId":"3478213283465426","name":"美股投资网","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bfd2cf1aa240d7058795c83d419510","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3478213283465426","authorIdStr":"3478213283465426"},"themes":[],"title":"庄家操盘策略,如何跟着庄家赚钱?","htmlText":"\n \n \n 市场是由做市商和零售交易者这两个参与者组成的,做市商是银行和大金融机构,这些参与者是市场中最活跃的参与者,他们控制和操.纵市场,并随时随地推动价格。通过识别银行和大机构的交易方式,我们可以跟随他们的足迹的赚钱。如果你不知道市场如何运作,那么你将永远找不到能持续获利的方法。文章有点长,可以看视频。 如果我是机构投资者,要想做一支股票,首先我会经过大量的筛选,研究很多股的基本面,然后筛选出一定范围的几只股票,找到一支大小合适,有故事和炒作空间的股票。然后跟公司高级管理层接洽,找到愿意配合的公司,最后开始择机建仓。如何配合呢? 就是在我吸酬时,在财报时尽量将业绩放平,或者适当隐藏利润,这一点公司很容易做到,只要对报表进行适当调整就行了,例如,将某些损益一个季度提完,使报表看上去亏损;或者将后面数年的费用半年摊完,因为摊销和预收款之类的项目非常容易调整。经过一些调整后,使得公司财报并不引人注目,甚至让你对这家公司丧失信心,怀疑其成长性。这样就可以避免在砸盘过程中让一些重视基本面价值投资的投资者入场。01砸盘阶段在吸筹之前,我肯定是要进一些筹码的,也不用多,因为这些筹码主要用来砸盘的。怎么收集这些砸盘的筹码?我不会每天慢慢去收集,因为这样会使股票天天上涨,给人造成一种这票趋势不错啊的感觉,还能涨,反而难以收到足够的筹码,还容易被散户抢酬,使自己收集成本提高。比如来一个一天暴涨10%,20%,很多获利盘就出逃了。又或者在市场制作很多陷阱,诱导散户做空,通过砸盘来获得足够的低成本筹码。第二天来个低开。为什么要低开而不高开,因为我昨天收集的筹码并不准备获利,而且要让昨天追风进去的短线筹码帮我砸盘。在这个下跌途中,我将逐步用单托底,因为我要形成自己的底仓。经过几天的连续下跌,有些割肉的筹码就会回补自己的仓位,这时候我不能让他们回补,我必须迅速的吃上去让他们追风,当形成追风盘时,我将\n \n","listText":"市场是由做市商和零售交易者这两个参与者组成的,做市商是银行和大金融机构,这些参与者是市场中最活跃的参与者,他们控制和操.纵市场,并随时随地推动价格。通过识别银行和大机构的交易方式,我们可以跟随他们的足迹的赚钱。如果你不知道市场如何运作,那么你将永远找不到能持续获利的方法。文章有点长,可以看视频。 如果我是机构投资者,要想做一支股票,首先我会经过大量的筛选,研究很多股的基本面,然后筛选出一定范围的几只股票,找到一支大小合适,有故事和炒作空间的股票。然后跟公司高级管理层接洽,找到愿意配合的公司,最后开始择机建仓。如何配合呢? 就是在我吸酬时,在财报时尽量将业绩放平,或者适当隐藏利润,这一点公司很容易做到,只要对报表进行适当调整就行了,例如,将某些损益一个季度提完,使报表看上去亏损;或者将后面数年的费用半年摊完,因为摊销和预收款之类的项目非常容易调整。经过一些调整后,使得公司财报并不引人注目,甚至让你对这家公司丧失信心,怀疑其成长性。这样就可以避免在砸盘过程中让一些重视基本面价值投资的投资者入场。01砸盘阶段在吸筹之前,我肯定是要进一些筹码的,也不用多,因为这些筹码主要用来砸盘的。怎么收集这些砸盘的筹码?我不会每天慢慢去收集,因为这样会使股票天天上涨,给人造成一种这票趋势不错啊的感觉,还能涨,反而难以收到足够的筹码,还容易被散户抢酬,使自己收集成本提高。比如来一个一天暴涨10%,20%,很多获利盘就出逃了。又或者在市场制作很多陷阱,诱导散户做空,通过砸盘来获得足够的低成本筹码。第二天来个低开。为什么要低开而不高开,因为我昨天收集的筹码并不准备获利,而且要让昨天追风进去的短线筹码帮我砸盘。在这个下跌途中,我将逐步用单托底,因为我要形成自己的底仓。经过几天的连续下跌,有些割肉的筹码就会回补自己的仓位,这时候我不能让他们回补,我必须迅速的吃上去让他们追风,当形成追风盘时,我将","text":"市场是由做市商和零售交易者这两个参与者组成的,做市商是银行和大金融机构,这些参与者是市场中最活跃的参与者,他们控制和操.纵市场,并随时随地推动价格。通过识别银行和大机构的交易方式,我们可以跟随他们的足迹的赚钱。如果你不知道市场如何运作,那么你将永远找不到能持续获利的方法。文章有点长,可以看视频。 如果我是机构投资者,要想做一支股票,首先我会经过大量的筛选,研究很多股的基本面,然后筛选出一定范围的几只股票,找到一支大小合适,有故事和炒作空间的股票。然后跟公司高级管理层接洽,找到愿意配合的公司,最后开始择机建仓。如何配合呢? 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