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2021-06-29

Yesss this is the bull run we have been waiting for

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2021-06-22

Sure have more upside

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2021-06-20

Aapl risky ?!

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2021-06-21

The volatility 😰

U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak<blockquote>美联储政策制定者排队讲话，美元本周面临动荡</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Nio all the way

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Let the Bull run year begins ?

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2021-06-28

Good

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2021-06-25

Gogogo

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2021-06-26

Gogogo

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2021-06-23

Good

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up and up","listText":"Yes up and up","text":"Yes up and up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153847934","repostId":"1155367467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155367467","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624977461,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155367467?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 22:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 index rose to 4300, a new all-time high.<blockquote>标普500指数升至4300，创历史新高。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155367467","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 index hit a record high shortly after the open on Tuesday, lifted by big U.S. banks, whi","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 index hit a record high shortly after the open on Tuesday, lifted by big U.S. banks, while investors looked to consumer confidence data against the backdrop of rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>在美国大型银行的提振下，标普500指数周二开盘后不久创下历史新高，而投资者在通胀上升和亚洲COVID-19病例激增的背景下关注消费者信心数据。</blockquote></p><p> At 10:35 a.m., the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.5%&nbsp;to record high of 4,300.52. 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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 34,447.68, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.04% to 14,505.21.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点35分，标普500上涨0.5%，至4,300.52点的历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.48%，至34,447.68点，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.04%，至14,505.21点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e88a411c3ba9c78717a1e724ec2041b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155367467","content_text":"The S&P 500 index hit a record high shortly after the open on Tuesday, lifted by big U.S. banks, while investors looked to consumer confidence data against the backdrop of rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia.\nAt 10:35 a.m., the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to record high of 4,300.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 34,447.68, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.04% to 14,505.21.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159996485,"gmtCreate":1624934335547,"gmtModify":1633946789651,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yesss this is the bull run we have been waiting for","listText":"Yesss this is the bull run we have been waiting for","text":"Yesss this is the bull run we have been waiting for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159996485","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127695616,"gmtCreate":1624845405835,"gmtModify":1633948070847,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127695616","repostId":"1102536611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124294609,"gmtCreate":1624765842401,"gmtModify":1633948878451,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio all the way","listText":"Nio all the way","text":"Nio all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124294609","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124036129,"gmtCreate":1624704840761,"gmtModify":1633949415450,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure appl","listText":"Sure appl","text":"Sure appl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124036129","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124038186,"gmtCreate":1624704719745,"gmtModify":1633949416142,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure baba","listText":"Sure baba","text":"Sure baba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124038186","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125257273,"gmtCreate":1624676979292,"gmtModify":1633949702089,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125257273","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126464035,"gmtCreate":1624582103927,"gmtModify":1633951008532,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126464035","repostId":"1193737129","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128945189,"gmtCreate":1624499612341,"gmtModify":1634005223603,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let the&nbsp;Bull run year begins ?","listText":"Let the&nbsp;Bull run year begins ?","text":"Let the Bull run year begins ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128945189","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123815032,"gmtCreate":1624415456626,"gmtModify":1634006430266,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123815032","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129930158,"gmtCreate":1624350097074,"gmtModify":1634007420493,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure have more upside","listText":"Sure have more upside","text":"Sure have more upside","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129930158","repostId":"1102641349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167825294,"gmtCreate":1624260747318,"gmtModify":1634008748292,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The volatility 😰","listText":"The volatility 😰","text":"The volatility 😰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167825294","repostId":"1135081526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135081526","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624261638,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135081526?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak<blockquote>美联储政策制定者排队讲话，美元本周面临动荡</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135081526","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-美元面临一周的波动交易，因一系列美联储发言人和美国通胀数据考验试图衡量货币紧缩步伐的投资者。</blockquote></p><p> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯将于周一发表讲话，然后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周二向国会作证。周五将公布央行青睐的通胀指标，而在此期间，其他地区联储主席将讨论经济和货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储上周预测2023年将加息不止一次以来，摩根大通全球外汇波动率指数大幅攀升。在布拉德表示央行明年开始加息可能是合适的后，两年期国债收益率和美元周五上涨，这表明本周可能会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Policy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗银行驻新加坡经济和战略主管Vishnu Varathan表示，政策制定者将密切关注市场对他们的评论和预测的鹰派程度。他在一份研究报告中写道：“如果市场陷入过度放纵的旧习惯，那么美联储试图遏制逃跑的鹰派不应让任何人感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Gauges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键仪表</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>彭博美元现货指数上周上涨2%，为2020年4月以来最大涨幅，周一变化不大。</blockquote></p><p> Data due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.</p><p><blockquote>周五公布的数据预计将显示，核心个人消费支出同比增长可能从4月份的3.1%加速至上个月的3.4%，这已经是1992年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚联邦银行的一份研究报告称：“市场参与者将对鲍威尔和威廉姆斯是否表示对通胀超调的担忧感兴趣。”“FOMC对通胀前景越来越不确定的迹象对政策前景很重要，可以支撑美元。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak<blockquote>美联储政策制定者排队讲话，美元本周面临动荡</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak<blockquote>美联储政策制定者排队讲话，美元本周面临动荡</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-美元面临一周的波动交易，因一系列美联储发言人和美国通胀数据考验试图衡量货币紧缩步伐的投资者。</blockquote></p><p> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯将于周一发表讲话，然后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周二向国会作证。周五将公布央行青睐的通胀指标，而在此期间，其他地区联储主席将讨论经济和货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储上周预测2023年将加息不止一次以来，摩根大通全球外汇波动率指数大幅攀升。在布拉德表示央行明年开始加息可能是合适的后，两年期国债收益率和美元周五上涨，这表明本周可能会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Policy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗银行驻新加坡经济和战略主管Vishnu Varathan表示，政策制定者将密切关注市场对他们的评论和预测的鹰派程度。他在一份研究报告中写道：“如果市场陷入过度放纵的旧习惯，那么美联储试图遏制逃跑的鹰派不应让任何人感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Gauges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键仪表</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>彭博美元现货指数上周上涨2%，为2020年4月以来最大涨幅，周一变化不大。</blockquote></p><p> Data due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.</p><p><blockquote>周五公布的数据预计将显示，核心个人消费支出同比增长可能从4月份的3.1%加速至上个月的3.4%，这已经是1992年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚联邦银行的一份研究报告称：“市场参与者将对鲍威尔和威廉姆斯是否表示对通胀超调的担忧感兴趣。”“FOMC对通胀前景越来越不确定的迹象对政策前景很重要，可以支撑美元。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dollar-faces-volatile-week-064145743.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dollar-faces-volatile-week-064145743.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135081526","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.\nThe JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.\nPolicy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.\nKey Gauges\nThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.\nData due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.\n“Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USDindexmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164084887,"gmtCreate":1624161691249,"gmtModify":1634009996548,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aapl risky ?!","listText":"Aapl risky ?!","text":"Aapl risky ?!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164084887","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162759055,"gmtCreate":1624076989477,"gmtModify":1634010975141,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh yeah","listText":"Oh yeah","text":"Oh yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162759055","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166139547,"gmtCreate":1623995436789,"gmtModify":1634024386582,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holddddd","listText":"Holddddd","text":"Holddddd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166139547","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明，社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明，社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161919451,"gmtCreate":1623900077873,"gmtModify":1634026132290,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up and up","listText":"Up up up and up","text":"Up up up and up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161919451","repostId":"1100405031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169820218,"gmtCreate":1623828577234,"gmtModify":1634027463349,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go tsla","listText":"Go tsla","text":"Go tsla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169820218","repostId":"1105892749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105892749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623809672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105892749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Bulls Look for Stock Catalysts. They Found Three.<blockquote>特斯拉多头寻找股票催化剂。他们找到了三个。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105892749","media":"Barrons","summary":"Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.That performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bu","content":"<p>Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票的疲软表现让看涨分析师最近感到失望。他们正在寻找催化剂，使股价摆脱最近的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is down about 15% year to date and off about 50% from its January 52-week high of $900.40. Tesla has ceded leadership—from a stock perspective—back to traditional auto makers: General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) shares are up 45% and 70% year to date, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价（股票代码：TSLA）今年迄今已下跌约15%，较1月份52周高点900.40美元下跌约50%。从股票角度来看，特斯拉已经将领导权让给了传统汽车制造商：通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)的股价今年迄今分别上涨了45%和70%。</blockquote></p><p> That performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bulls should admit that the rise in the stock price during the second half of 2020, while perhaps deserved in principle, was packed into a&nbsp;highly concentrated&nbsp;time frame,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>这一表现让特斯拉多头感到困惑。摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)在周一晚间的一份报告中写道：“让我们从该股的起点开始，以健康的智力诚实开始。”他是特斯拉股票买入的牛市评级。他对该股的目标价为每股900美元，比近期水平高出近50%。他写道：“即使是多头也应该承认，2020年下半年股价的上涨虽然原则上也许是理所应当的，但却是在一个高度集中的时间框架内进行的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares rose 227% in the second half of 2020, buoyed by strong earnings, strong deliveries, and the stock’s inclusion in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>受强劲盈利、强劲交付以及该股被纳入标准普尔500指数的提振，特斯拉股价在2020年下半年上涨了227%。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock had the better part of five years-worth of performance packed into about five month,” Jonas adds. He says his clients are now looking for the next big thing that can drive the stock forward again. His ideas include capacity expansion in Texas and Germany. After that, he predicts Tesla will open up five more plants between now and the middle of this decade.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯补充道：“该股五年的大部分表现都集中在大约五个月内。”他说，他的客户现在正在寻找下一个可以推动股票再次上涨的大事件。他的想法包括在德克萨斯州和德国扩大产能。此后，他预测从现在到本世纪中期，特斯拉将再开设五家工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas is also looking for Tesla to unveil another new vehicle model. By his estimation, Tesla covers only about 15% of the total addressable market for the auto industry with its Y, X, 3, and S models. Model expansion will be a positive. That isn’t on the near-term horizon, though the company is due to deliver its Cybertruck later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas还希望特斯拉推出另一款新车型。据他估计，特斯拉的Y、X、3和S车型仅占汽车行业总潜在市场的15%左右。模型扩展将是积极的。尽管该公司将于2021年晚些时候交付其Cybertruck，但这并不是短期内的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst&nbsp;Jonathan Dorsheimer&nbsp;is looking in a different area for a catalyst: residential solar power. Part of the reason he is bullish is that “Tesla is creating an energy brand and an Apple-esque ecosystem of products with customer focused connectivity, seamlessly marrying car, solar, and back-up power,” he wrote in a report released Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer正在另一个领域寻找催化剂：住宅太阳能。他看好的部分原因是“特斯拉正在创建一个能源品牌和一个苹果式的产品生态系统，具有以客户为中心的连接，将汽车、太阳能和备用电源无缝结合，”他在周日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer is bullish, but feeling a little down lately. He still rates the stock Buy, but he cut his&nbsp;price target&nbsp;to $812 from $974 in his report. Among other things, he is disappointed by battery delays. Tesla is planning to use larger battery cells that promise better range, charge time, and costs. Those batteries aren’t available yet.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默很乐观，但最近感觉有点沮丧。他仍将该股评级为买入，但在报告中将目标价从974美元下调至812美元。除此之外，他对电池延迟感到失望。特斯拉正计划使用更大的电池，以保证更好的续航里程、充电时间和成本。那些电池还没有上市。</blockquote></p><p> Looking a little further back, Goldman Sachs analyst&nbsp;Mark Delaney&nbsp;was watching Tesla’s Model S Plaid delivery event last week. The Plaid can go zero to 60 miles per hour in less than two seconds. Delaney was impressed by the technology, but pointed out the Plaid, at roughly $130,000, is a niche vehicle. He is looking for 2021 deliveries to exceed expectations. Delaney is modeling 875,000 vehicles for Tesla in 2021. The Wall Street consensus number is closer to 825,000.</p><p><blockquote>再往前看，高盛分析师Mark Delaney上周观看了特斯拉Model S Plaid交付活动。格子可以在不到两秒钟的时间内从零加速到60英里/小时。德莱尼对这项技术印象深刻，但指出售价约13万美元的Plaid是一款小众汽车。他希望2021年的交付量能够超出预期。德莱尼将在2021年为特斯拉设计875,000辆汽车。华尔街的共识数字更接近82.5万。</blockquote></p><p> Delaney rates shares Buy and has an $860 price target.</p><p><blockquote>德莱尼将股票评级为买入，目标价为860美元。</blockquote></p><p> New production ramping up, strong deliveries, and a growing solar business is what these three will watch for in coming months. If all goes well, those catalysts should be enough to drive Tesla stock higher, as long as there is no bad news in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>新产量的增加、强劲的交付量和不断增长的太阳能业务是这三家公司未来几个月将关注的焦点。如果一切顺利，只要同时没有坏消息，这些催化剂应该足以推动特斯拉股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down 3%&nbsp;to $599.36&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tuesday, and down slightly for the week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周二下跌3%，至599.36美元，本周小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Bulls Look for Stock Catalysts. They Found Three.<blockquote>特斯拉多头寻找股票催化剂。他们找到了三个。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Bulls Look for Stock Catalysts. They Found Three.<blockquote>特斯拉多头寻找股票催化剂。他们找到了三个。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票的疲软表现让看涨分析师最近感到失望。他们正在寻找催化剂，使股价摆脱最近的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is down about 15% year to date and off about 50% from its January 52-week high of $900.40. Tesla has ceded leadership—from a stock perspective—back to traditional auto makers: General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) shares are up 45% and 70% year to date, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价（股票代码：TSLA）今年迄今已下跌约15%，较1月份52周高点900.40美元下跌约50%。从股票角度来看，特斯拉已经将领导权让给了传统汽车制造商：通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)的股价今年迄今分别上涨了45%和70%。</blockquote></p><p> That performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bulls should admit that the rise in the stock price during the second half of 2020, while perhaps deserved in principle, was packed into a&nbsp;highly concentrated&nbsp;time frame,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>这一表现让特斯拉多头感到困惑。摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)在周一晚间的一份报告中写道：“让我们从该股的起点开始，以健康的智力诚实开始。”他是特斯拉股票买入的牛市评级。他对该股的目标价为每股900美元，比近期水平高出近50%。他写道：“即使是多头也应该承认，2020年下半年股价的上涨虽然原则上也许是理所应当的，但却是在一个高度集中的时间框架内进行的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares rose 227% in the second half of 2020, buoyed by strong earnings, strong deliveries, and the stock’s inclusion in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>受强劲盈利、强劲交付以及该股被纳入标准普尔500指数的提振，特斯拉股价在2020年下半年上涨了227%。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock had the better part of five years-worth of performance packed into about five month,” Jonas adds. He says his clients are now looking for the next big thing that can drive the stock forward again. His ideas include capacity expansion in Texas and Germany. After that, he predicts Tesla will open up five more plants between now and the middle of this decade.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯补充道：“该股五年的大部分表现都集中在大约五个月内。”他说，他的客户现在正在寻找下一个可以推动股票再次上涨的大事件。他的想法包括在德克萨斯州和德国扩大产能。此后，他预测从现在到本世纪中期，特斯拉将再开设五家工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas is also looking for Tesla to unveil another new vehicle model. By his estimation, Tesla covers only about 15% of the total addressable market for the auto industry with its Y, X, 3, and S models. Model expansion will be a positive. That isn’t on the near-term horizon, though the company is due to deliver its Cybertruck later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas还希望特斯拉推出另一款新车型。据他估计，特斯拉的Y、X、3和S车型仅占汽车行业总潜在市场的15%左右。模型扩展将是积极的。尽管该公司将于2021年晚些时候交付其Cybertruck，但这并不是短期内的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst&nbsp;Jonathan Dorsheimer&nbsp;is looking in a different area for a catalyst: residential solar power. Part of the reason he is bullish is that “Tesla is creating an energy brand and an Apple-esque ecosystem of products with customer focused connectivity, seamlessly marrying car, solar, and back-up power,” he wrote in a report released Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer正在另一个领域寻找催化剂：住宅太阳能。他看好的部分原因是“特斯拉正在创建一个能源品牌和一个苹果式的产品生态系统，具有以客户为中心的连接，将汽车、太阳能和备用电源无缝结合，”他在周日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer is bullish, but feeling a little down lately. He still rates the stock Buy, but he cut his&nbsp;price target&nbsp;to $812 from $974 in his report. Among other things, he is disappointed by battery delays. Tesla is planning to use larger battery cells that promise better range, charge time, and costs. Those batteries aren’t available yet.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默很乐观，但最近感觉有点沮丧。他仍将该股评级为买入，但在报告中将目标价从974美元下调至812美元。除此之外，他对电池延迟感到失望。特斯拉正计划使用更大的电池，以保证更好的续航里程、充电时间和成本。那些电池还没有上市。</blockquote></p><p> Looking a little further back, Goldman Sachs analyst&nbsp;Mark Delaney&nbsp;was watching Tesla’s Model S Plaid delivery event last week. The Plaid can go zero to 60 miles per hour in less than two seconds. Delaney was impressed by the technology, but pointed out the Plaid, at roughly $130,000, is a niche vehicle. He is looking for 2021 deliveries to exceed expectations. Delaney is modeling 875,000 vehicles for Tesla in 2021. The Wall Street consensus number is closer to 825,000.</p><p><blockquote>再往前看，高盛分析师Mark Delaney上周观看了特斯拉Model S Plaid交付活动。格子可以在不到两秒钟的时间内从零加速到60英里/小时。德莱尼对这项技术印象深刻，但指出售价约13万美元的Plaid是一款小众汽车。他希望2021年的交付量能够超出预期。德莱尼将在2021年为特斯拉设计875,000辆汽车。华尔街的共识数字更接近82.5万。</blockquote></p><p> Delaney rates shares Buy and has an $860 price target.</p><p><blockquote>德莱尼将股票评级为买入，目标价为860美元。</blockquote></p><p> New production ramping up, strong deliveries, and a growing solar business is what these three will watch for in coming months. If all goes well, those catalysts should be enough to drive Tesla stock higher, as long as there is no bad news in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>新产量的增加、强劲的交付量和不断增长的太阳能业务是这三家公司未来几个月将关注的焦点。如果一切顺利，只要同时没有坏消息，这些催化剂应该足以推动特斯拉股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down 3%&nbsp;to $599.36&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tuesday, and down slightly for the week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周二下跌3%，至599.36美元，本周小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bulls-look-for-stock-catalysts-they-found-three-51623774479?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bulls-look-for-stock-catalysts-they-found-three-51623774479?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105892749","content_text":"Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.\nTesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is down about 15% year to date and off about 50% from its January 52-week high of $900.40. Tesla has ceded leadership—from a stock perspective—back to traditional auto makers: General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) shares are up 45% and 70% year to date, respectively.\nThat performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bulls should admit that the rise in the stock price during the second half of 2020, while perhaps deserved in principle, was packed into a highly concentrated time frame,” he writes.\nTesla shares rose 227% in the second half of 2020, buoyed by strong earnings, strong deliveries, and the stock’s inclusion in the S&P 500.\n“The stock had the better part of five years-worth of performance packed into about five month,” Jonas adds. He says his clients are now looking for the next big thing that can drive the stock forward again. His ideas include capacity expansion in Texas and Germany. After that, he predicts Tesla will open up five more plants between now and the middle of this decade.\nJonas is also looking for Tesla to unveil another new vehicle model. By his estimation, Tesla covers only about 15% of the total addressable market for the auto industry with its Y, X, 3, and S models. Model expansion will be a positive. That isn’t on the near-term horizon, though the company is due to deliver its Cybertruck later in 2021.\nCanaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer is looking in a different area for a catalyst: residential solar power. Part of the reason he is bullish is that “Tesla is creating an energy brand and an Apple-esque ecosystem of products with customer focused connectivity, seamlessly marrying car, solar, and back-up power,” he wrote in a report released Sunday.\nDorsheimer is bullish, but feeling a little down lately. He still rates the stock Buy, but he cut his price target to $812 from $974 in his report. Among other things, he is disappointed by battery delays. Tesla is planning to use larger battery cells that promise better range, charge time, and costs. Those batteries aren’t available yet.\nLooking a little further back, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney was watching Tesla’s Model S Plaid delivery event last week. The Plaid can go zero to 60 miles per hour in less than two seconds. Delaney was impressed by the technology, but pointed out the Plaid, at roughly $130,000, is a niche vehicle. He is looking for 2021 deliveries to exceed expectations. Delaney is modeling 875,000 vehicles for Tesla in 2021. The Wall Street consensus number is closer to 825,000.\nDelaney rates shares Buy and has an $860 price target.\nNew production ramping up, strong deliveries, and a growing solar business is what these three will watch for in coming months. If all goes well, those catalysts should be enough to drive Tesla stock higher, as long as there is no bad news in the meantime.\nTesla stock was down 3% to $599.36 on Tuesday, and down slightly for the week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":159996485,"gmtCreate":1624934335547,"gmtModify":1633946789651,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yesss this is the bull run we have been waiting for","listText":"Yesss this is the bull run we have been waiting for","text":"Yesss this is the bull run we have been waiting for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159996485","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129930158,"gmtCreate":1624350097074,"gmtModify":1634007420493,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure have more upside","listText":"Sure have more upside","text":"Sure have more upside","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129930158","repostId":"1102641349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164084887,"gmtCreate":1624161691249,"gmtModify":1634009996548,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aapl risky ?!","listText":"Aapl risky ?!","text":"Aapl risky ?!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164084887","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167825294,"gmtCreate":1624260747318,"gmtModify":1634008748292,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The volatility 😰","listText":"The volatility 😰","text":"The volatility 😰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167825294","repostId":"1135081526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135081526","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624261638,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135081526?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak<blockquote>美联储政策制定者排队讲话，美元本周面临动荡</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135081526","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-美元面临一周的波动交易，因一系列美联储发言人和美国通胀数据考验试图衡量货币紧缩步伐的投资者。</blockquote></p><p> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯将于周一发表讲话，然后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周二向国会作证。周五将公布央行青睐的通胀指标，而在此期间，其他地区联储主席将讨论经济和货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储上周预测2023年将加息不止一次以来，摩根大通全球外汇波动率指数大幅攀升。在布拉德表示央行明年开始加息可能是合适的后，两年期国债收益率和美元周五上涨，这表明本周可能会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Policy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗银行驻新加坡经济和战略主管Vishnu Varathan表示，政策制定者将密切关注市场对他们的评论和预测的鹰派程度。他在一份研究报告中写道：“如果市场陷入过度放纵的旧习惯，那么美联储试图遏制逃跑的鹰派不应让任何人感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Gauges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键仪表</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>彭博美元现货指数上周上涨2%，为2020年4月以来最大涨幅，周一变化不大。</blockquote></p><p> Data due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.</p><p><blockquote>周五公布的数据预计将显示，核心个人消费支出同比增长可能从4月份的3.1%加速至上个月的3.4%，这已经是1992年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚联邦银行的一份研究报告称：“市场参与者将对鲍威尔和威廉姆斯是否表示对通胀超调的担忧感兴趣。”“FOMC对通胀前景越来越不确定的迹象对政策前景很重要，可以支撑美元。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak<blockquote>美联储政策制定者排队讲话，美元本周面临动荡</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak<blockquote>美联储政策制定者排队讲话，美元本周面临动荡</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-美元面临一周的波动交易，因一系列美联储发言人和美国通胀数据考验试图衡量货币紧缩步伐的投资者。</blockquote></p><p> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯将于周一发表讲话，然后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周二向国会作证。周五将公布央行青睐的通胀指标，而在此期间，其他地区联储主席将讨论经济和货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储上周预测2023年将加息不止一次以来，摩根大通全球外汇波动率指数大幅攀升。在布拉德表示央行明年开始加息可能是合适的后，两年期国债收益率和美元周五上涨，这表明本周可能会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Policy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗银行驻新加坡经济和战略主管Vishnu Varathan表示，政策制定者将密切关注市场对他们的评论和预测的鹰派程度。他在一份研究报告中写道：“如果市场陷入过度放纵的旧习惯，那么美联储试图遏制逃跑的鹰派不应让任何人感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Gauges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键仪表</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>彭博美元现货指数上周上涨2%，为2020年4月以来最大涨幅，周一变化不大。</blockquote></p><p> Data due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.</p><p><blockquote>周五公布的数据预计将显示，核心个人消费支出同比增长可能从4月份的3.1%加速至上个月的3.4%，这已经是1992年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚联邦银行的一份研究报告称：“市场参与者将对鲍威尔和威廉姆斯是否表示对通胀超调的担忧感兴趣。”“FOMC对通胀前景越来越不确定的迹象对政策前景很重要，可以支撑美元。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dollar-faces-volatile-week-064145743.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dollar-faces-volatile-week-064145743.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135081526","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.\nThe JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.\nPolicy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.\nKey Gauges\nThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.\nData due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.\n“Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USDindexmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124294609,"gmtCreate":1624765842401,"gmtModify":1633948878451,"author":{"id":"3568928226056730","authorId":"3568928226056730","name":"Kenww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568928226056730","authorIdStr":"3568928226056730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio all the way","listText":"Nio all the way","text":"Nio all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124294609","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. 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