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low289
2021-02-24
Buy the dip
抱歉，原内容已删除
low289
2021-02-22
Buy the dip
Palantir: Buy The Dip
low289
2021-02-17
Noted
Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note
low289
2021-02-16
Ok
Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is
low289
2021-02-11
Ok
抱歉，原内容已删除
low289
2021-02-11
Noted
抱歉，原内容已删除
low289
2021-02-11
Good
抱歉，原内容已删除
low289
2021-02-09
Good
What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?
low289
2021-02-09
Noted
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the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363293115","repostId":"1164032196","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360469077,"gmtCreate":1613966332999,"gmtModify":1634551730985,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360469077","repostId":"1100960455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100960455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613717993,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100960455?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 14:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Buy The Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100960455","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disapp","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.</li>\n <li>Palantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.</li>\n <li>Palantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.</li>\n <li>Palantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!</li>\n</ul>\n<p>One of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.</p>\n<p><b>Who Are They?</b></p>\n<p>If you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.</p>\n<p>Palantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.</p>\n<p>The company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.</p>\n<p>Pretty cool hey?</p>\n<p><b>What Is Driving The Company?</b></p>\n<p>Revenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2926257ca97794e55159ce8c6021a745\" tg-width=\"2978\" tg-height=\"992\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TIKR.com)</p>\n<p>The shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.</p>\n<p>Data has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.</p>\n<p>Some of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9284f5fd3e26d0c55fcd9b2f6355371e\" tg-width=\"1752\" tg-height=\"983\"></p>\n<p>(Company Presentation)</p>\n<p>So all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>What Are The Risks?</b></p>\n<p>One of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.</p>\n<p>Something to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.</p>\n<p>That said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.</p>\n<p><b>What's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?</b></p>\n<p>The one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.</p>\n<p>So what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n</blockquote>\n<p>It means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.</p>\n<p>Where are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.</p>\n<p><b>What Does The Price Say?</b></p>\n<p>Taking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b568bf73db2c1b38aaa1546a10427dc\" tg-width=\"3837\" tg-height=\"1813\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TC2000.com)</p>\n<p>When a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3505c465c407b7387cbedf16a1b233\" tg-width=\"3840\" tg-height=\"1808\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TC2000.com)</p>\n<p>When trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.</p>\n<p><b>Wrap-Up</b></p>\n<p>As you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-19 14:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100960455","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\nPalantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.\nPalantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!\n\nOne of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.\nWho Are They?\nIf you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.\nPalantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.\nThe company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.\nPretty cool hey?\nWhat Is Driving The Company?\nRevenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.\n\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThe shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.\nData has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.\nSome of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.\n\n(Company Presentation)\nSo all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.\nWhat Are The Risks?\nOne of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.\nSomething to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.\nThat said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.\nWhat's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?\nThe one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.\n\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n\nWhat is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.\nSo what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:\n\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n\nIt means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.\nWhere are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.\nWhat Does The Price Say?\nTaking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.\nWrap-Up\nAs you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385882686,"gmtCreate":1613530897845,"gmtModify":1634553275726,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385882686","repostId":"1131743000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131743000","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613466841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131743000?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 17:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131743000","media":"Zacks","summary":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lin","content":"<p><b>Walmart Inc.</b> is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.</p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3ea555b99d5d59d69e6ac464f3e786\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p>Walmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.</p><p>Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan & Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.</p><p>These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.</p><p>That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 17:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note><strong>Zacks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131743000","content_text":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.Key Factors to NoteWalmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan & Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382239175,"gmtCreate":1613449443497,"gmtModify":1634553635762,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382239175","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).</p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.</p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 09:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","WDC":"西部数据",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","STX":"希捷科技"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"STX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"WDC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388926308,"gmtCreate":1613012775404,"gmtModify":1703768366494,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388926308","repostId":"2110094289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388968686,"gmtCreate":1613011553145,"gmtModify":1703768353023,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388968686","repostId":"2110350049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388969196,"gmtCreate":1613011272315,"gmtModify":1703768348187,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388969196","repostId":"1144142338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383333245,"gmtCreate":1612836555087,"gmtModify":1703765653306,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383333245","repostId":"2110005307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110005307","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1612823470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110005307?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 06:31","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110005307","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and ac","content":"<p><b>Tesla Inc</b> investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p>\n<p><b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p>\n<p>Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like <b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b> are building out its digital currency offerings.</p>\n<p>\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p>\n<p>Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p>\n<p>\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p>\n<p>\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p>\n<p><b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p>\n<p>Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long <b>GameStop Corp.</b> call options.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-09 06:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Tesla Inc</b> investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p>\n<p><b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p>\n<p>Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like <b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b> are building out its digital currency offerings.</p>\n<p>\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p>\n<p>Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p>\n<p>\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p>\n<p>\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p>\n<p><b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p>\n<p>Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long <b>GameStop Corp.</b> call options.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110005307","content_text":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"\nMusk Likes Bitcoin:Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.\nOther heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like Paypal Holdings Inc are building out its digital currency offerings.\n\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.\nLoup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.\n\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"\nBitcoin Investment:Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.\nOn the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.\n\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.\nHard To Prove Any Manipulation:Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.\nMusk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long GameStop Corp. call options.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383392675,"gmtCreate":1612836048997,"gmtModify":1703765645403,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40658d3800c39ab856476200c73107ab","width":"720","height":"829"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383392675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":363293115,"gmtCreate":1614139411637,"gmtModify":1634551020705,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363293115","repostId":"1164032196","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383333245,"gmtCreate":1612836555087,"gmtModify":1703765653306,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383333245","repostId":"2110005307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110005307","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1612823470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110005307?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 06:31","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110005307","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and ac","content":"<p><b>Tesla Inc</b> investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p>\n<p><b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p>\n<p>Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like <b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b> are building out its digital currency offerings.</p>\n<p>\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p>\n<p>Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p>\n<p>\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p>\n<p>\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p>\n<p><b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p>\n<p>Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long <b>GameStop Corp.</b> call options.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-09 06:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Tesla Inc</b> investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p>\n<p><b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p>\n<p>Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like <b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b> are building out its digital currency offerings.</p>\n<p>\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p>\n<p>Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p>\n<p>\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p>\n<p>\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p>\n<p><b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p>\n<p>Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long <b>GameStop Corp.</b> call options.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110005307","content_text":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"\nMusk Likes Bitcoin:Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.\nOther heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like Paypal Holdings Inc are building out its digital currency offerings.\n\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.\nLoup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.\n\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"\nBitcoin Investment:Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.\nOn the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.\n\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.\nHard To Prove Any Manipulation:Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.\nMusk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long GameStop Corp. call options.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360469077,"gmtCreate":1613966332999,"gmtModify":1634551730985,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360469077","repostId":"1100960455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100960455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613717993,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100960455?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 14:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Buy The Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100960455","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disapp","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.</li>\n <li>Palantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.</li>\n <li>Palantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.</li>\n <li>Palantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!</li>\n</ul>\n<p>One of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.</p>\n<p><b>Who Are They?</b></p>\n<p>If you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.</p>\n<p>Palantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.</p>\n<p>The company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.</p>\n<p>Pretty cool hey?</p>\n<p><b>What Is Driving The Company?</b></p>\n<p>Revenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2926257ca97794e55159ce8c6021a745\" tg-width=\"2978\" tg-height=\"992\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TIKR.com)</p>\n<p>The shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.</p>\n<p>Data has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.</p>\n<p>Some of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9284f5fd3e26d0c55fcd9b2f6355371e\" tg-width=\"1752\" tg-height=\"983\"></p>\n<p>(Company Presentation)</p>\n<p>So all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>What Are The Risks?</b></p>\n<p>One of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.</p>\n<p>Something to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.</p>\n<p>That said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.</p>\n<p><b>What's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?</b></p>\n<p>The one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.</p>\n<p>So what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n</blockquote>\n<p>It means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.</p>\n<p>Where are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.</p>\n<p><b>What Does The Price Say?</b></p>\n<p>Taking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b568bf73db2c1b38aaa1546a10427dc\" tg-width=\"3837\" tg-height=\"1813\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TC2000.com)</p>\n<p>When a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3505c465c407b7387cbedf16a1b233\" tg-width=\"3840\" tg-height=\"1808\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TC2000.com)</p>\n<p>When trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.</p>\n<p><b>Wrap-Up</b></p>\n<p>As you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-19 14:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100960455","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\nPalantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.\nPalantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!\n\nOne of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.\nWho Are They?\nIf you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.\nPalantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.\nThe company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.\nPretty cool hey?\nWhat Is Driving The Company?\nRevenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.\n\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThe shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.\nData has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.\nSome of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.\n\n(Company Presentation)\nSo all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.\nWhat Are The Risks?\nOne of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.\nSomething to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.\nThat said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.\nWhat's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?\nThe one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.\n\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n\nWhat is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.\nSo what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:\n\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n\nIt means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.\nWhere are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.\nWhat Does The Price Say?\nTaking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.\nWrap-Up\nAs you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385882686,"gmtCreate":1613530897845,"gmtModify":1634553275726,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385882686","repostId":"1131743000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131743000","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613466841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131743000?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 17:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131743000","media":"Zacks","summary":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lin","content":"<p><b>Walmart Inc.</b> is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.</p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3ea555b99d5d59d69e6ac464f3e786\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p>Walmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.</p><p>Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan & Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.</p><p>These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.</p><p>That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 17:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note><strong>Zacks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131743000","content_text":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.Key Factors to NoteWalmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan & Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382239175,"gmtCreate":1613449443497,"gmtModify":1634553635762,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382239175","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).</p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.</p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 09:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","WDC":"西部数据",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","STX":"希捷科技"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"STX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"WDC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388926308,"gmtCreate":1613012775404,"gmtModify":1703768366494,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388926308","repostId":"2110094289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388968686,"gmtCreate":1613011553145,"gmtModify":1703768353023,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388968686","repostId":"2110350049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388969196,"gmtCreate":1613011272315,"gmtModify":1703768348187,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388969196","repostId":"1144142338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383392675,"gmtCreate":1612836048997,"gmtModify":1703765645403,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40658d3800c39ab856476200c73107ab","width":"720","height":"829"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383392675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
