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low289

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2021-02-24

Buy the dip

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2021-02-09

Good

What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?<blockquote>专业人士如何看待特斯拉的比特币投资？</blockquote>

2021-02-22

Buy the dip

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2021-02-17

Noted

Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note<blockquote>沃尔玛公布第四季度收益：需要注意的关键事项</blockquote>

2021-02-16

Ok

Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>

2021-02-11

Ok

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2021-02-11

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2021-02-11

Good

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2021-02-09

Noted

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the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363293115","repostId":"1164032196","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360469077,"gmtCreate":1613966332999,"gmtModify":1634551730985,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360469077","repostId":"1100960455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100960455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613717993,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100960455?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 14:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Buy The Dip<blockquote>Palantir：买入底液</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100960455","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disapp","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.</li>  <li>Palantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.</li>  <li>Palantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.</li>  <li>Palantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!</li> </ul> One of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir公布了稳健的收入，但未能实现盈利。未来的预测有点令人失望。</li><li>Palantir预计2020年收入将同比增长30%，此前预计2020年收入将增长47%。</li><li>Palantir继续扩大其在多个行业的客户群。</li><li>Palantir的锁定期于2月19日结束。下注吧！</li></ul>最近最热门的股票之一是最近直接上市的Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)。一些投资者预计该公司今天将发布井喷式收益，但未能如愿。该公司确实实现了令人难以置信的收入增长，而且前进的道路看起来也很光明。然而，投资者对该公司表示的光明前景感到失望。正如预期的那样，在禁售期结束之前，该股正在下跌。下周将讲述一个更好的故事，说明这只股票的走向。如果你觉得有风险，就跳上船。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Who Are They?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们是谁？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.</p><p><blockquote>如果你和我一样，你可能不知道这家公司是谁，也不知道他们做什么。Palantir Technologies Inc.成立于2003年，总部位于科罗拉多州丹佛市。简而言之，他们为美国情报界构建和部署软件平台，以协助反恐调查和行动。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Gothamis是一个软件程序，可以识别隐藏在数据集中深处的模式。这有助于对平台内已识别的威胁执行真实世界的响应。这被用于帮助2018年佛罗伦萨飓风中有需要的人。Palantir Gotham将公开可用的洪水数据与天气信息和社会脆弱性普查数据相结合，以找到最需要的社区并适当部署资源。最近，他们向美国政府提供冠状病毒跟踪软件。</blockquote></p><p> The company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还提供Palantir Foundry，这是一个通过为组织的数据创建中央操作系统来改变组织运营方式的平台；并允许个人用户在一个地方集成和分析他们需要的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Pretty cool hey?</p><p><blockquote>很酷嘿？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Is Driving The Company?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司的驱动力是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Revenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.</p><p><blockquote>收入。这是一部成长剧，简单明了。往下看，我们可以看到未来的预测。缺失的区块是2020年，我们今天发现是11亿美元。同比增长约47%。展望未来，分析师预计年收入增长率将保持在35%以上。通常我们认为20%是强的，所以这看起来真的很好。第四季度，该公司营收为3.221亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2926257ca97794e55159ce8c6021a745\" tg-width=\"2978\" tg-height=\"992\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: TIKR.com)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：TIKR.com）</blockquote></p><p> The shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>令人震惊的是每股亏损总计0.08美元，而市场普遍预期为0.02美元。受财报消息影响，该股今天下跌超过12%。深入研究后，大多数投资者似乎对前瞻性预测感到失望。我个人认为他们有点沙袋，以消除共识，但时间会证明这有多真实。根据该公司发布的所有新闻，约翰·罗兹(John Rhodes)的文章对此进行了很好的概述：Palantir：潜在的第四季度收入井喷大多数人预计收入会超出预期，但该股上周的表现却并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Data has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>数据变得比以往任何时候都更加与普通人相关。当地新闻有各种各样关于新冠肺炎的数据。2020年，Palantir帮助100家商业组织和10个国家政府应对COVID-19。这对Palantir来说是一个巨大的机会，他们并没有浪费它。这一回应帮助thema赢得了价值3150万美元的为期两年的英国卫生服务工作合同。仅在第四季度，该公司就签署了21笔价值超过500万美元的交易。其中12个价值1000万美元或以上。收入增长将继续是Palantir的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>一些最好的业务是政府业务。今年，Palantir 56%的收入（即6.1亿美元）来自政府合同。虽然商业方面的同比增长高达107%，但政府收入增长77%并不是什么可笑的事情。更令人印象深刻的一件事是我们在普通客户身上看到的情况。收入同比增长41%。每位客户从560万美元增至790万美元。随着客户继续开发和改进其系统，将越来越多的业务移交给Palantir，这是一个需要关注的重要指标。另一个因素是Palantir吸引了更大的客户。2020年获得的新客户创造了4200万美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9284f5fd3e26d0c55fcd9b2f6355371e\" tg-width=\"1752\" tg-height=\"983\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> (Company Presentation)</p><p><blockquote>（公司介绍）</blockquote></p><p> So all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>所以所有这些，我们今天仍然坐在12%？正如我上面提到的，人们对前瞻性预测感到有点震惊。Palantir表示，预计2021年收入增长将超过30%。对于大多数公司来说，这将是一个好消息，但在您刚刚公布了47%的增长年度之后，这有点令人难过。但正如我所说，我认为他们有点沙袋。分析师仍预计2021年将增长约35%。直觉告诉我，随着时间的推移，他们会超越这一目标。该公司确实表示，他们的目标是到2025年实现40亿美元的收入，从现在开始每年增长30%。根据目前的预测，我完全预计这个数字将接近50亿美元。Palantir正在追逐多个行业的“大鱼”。他们的客户中有8家属于财富100强，12家属于全球100强。随着他们产品的不断开发和改进，他们的底线只会越来越好。我认为从长远来看，这里有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Are The Risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有哪些风险？</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.</p><p><blockquote>即将到来的风险之一是禁售期结束，我将在下面谈到这一点。除此之外，我会看看政府的合同。是的，它们是最重要的，但这并不是说它们没有风险。Palantir过去曾表示，他们需要更多地关注商业客户，以帮助盈利并扭亏为盈（这是盈利抛售的部分原因）。正如我们所看到的，他们已经获得了一些大型商业客户，但政府方面仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Something to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住的是，与政府打交道可能会导致跨越一些人不同意的界限。据《华盛顿邮报》报道，2018年，200多名员工签署了一封致首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普的信，理由是对与移民和海关执法局合作的担忧。过去，其他多家大型科技公司因潜在侵犯人权而被迫切断与政府机构的联系。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我确实认为该公司将继续在商业领域表现出色，并随着时间的推移减少整体政府风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是“禁售期”？</b></blockquote></p><p> The one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.</p><p><blockquote>许多人对Palantir的一个担忧是锁定期，锁定期将于2月19日（星期五）结束。通常情况下，这是我们会看到走这条路线的IPO出现低点的地方，但情况并非总是如此。</blockquote></p><p>   Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.  What is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.</p><p><blockquote>从10月前两周锁定期到期的15只股票来看，大多数股票在到期日前几天开始下跌，三到五天后反弹。然而，一些人当天几乎没有抛售压力，锁定结束后股价立即攀升。这是什么？简而言之，我们不是通过首次公开募股（IPO）来创建公司的新股并由中介机构承销，而是直接上市。这是企业直接向公众出售股票的方式，无需任何中介机构的帮助。不涉及任何承销商或其他中介机构，不存在发行新股的情况。这意味着该业务的最大股东只能在IPO禁售期到期后自由出售其股份。Spotify(SPOT)和Slack(WORK)是直接上市公司的两个例子。也就是说，这两家公司都没有员工锁定期。</blockquote></p><p> So what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:</p><p><blockquote>那么这意味着什么呢？好吧，鉴于MarketWatch表示：</blockquote></p><p>   For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.  It means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于Palantir来说，多年的风险资本投资已经创造了足够的股票来启动公开交易：大约16.4亿股，尽管在包括归属期权在内的完全稀释公式中，这一数字将增长至21.7亿股。这意味着，目前流通股约为4.97亿股，我们可能会看到约17亿股上市。现在这种可能性不大，但这确实意味着，考虑到IPO通常占已发行股票的10%，而根据上面提供的数字，Palantir发行的股票超过20%，该股的抛售压力应该低于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Where are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在在哪里？根据前面引用的研究，我们正走在正轨上。就在禁售期结束之前，该股正在有序抛售。现在我们必须拭目以待，看看反弹的情况如何。还是每个人都卖得很高，然后试图买得更低？这有点观望。让我们来看看技术向我们展示了什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does The Price Say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下技术面，我们可以看到几个非常强大的支撑位。首先，我们今天突破了30美元的一个相当大的水平，而且是以一种很大的方式突破的，这在短期内有点令人担忧，但有可能快速反弹以迅速重新测试30美元大关。如果说这些市场教会了我们什么，那就是它们可以快速行动！在正常情况下，这可能是我的停留点。但是直到今天我才有了头寸，随着我承担更多的风险，游戏发生了一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b568bf73db2c1b38aaa1546a10427dc\" tg-width=\"3837\" tg-height=\"1813\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: TC2000.com)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：TC2000.com）</blockquote></p><p> When a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.</p><p><blockquote>当像Palantir这样受欢迎的股票像我们今天看到的那样下跌时，会发生两件事之一。要么逢低买入，这只股票将飞回40美元，要么我们看到Palantir跌至23美元左右。因为股票太新了，我们确实没有一个好的支撑指标。看下面，我们可以大致看到我从哪里提取了23美元。这是一个相当大的举措。大约会下降20%。如果突破23美元，它可能会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3505c465c407b7387cbedf16a1b233\" tg-width=\"3840\" tg-height=\"1808\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: TC2000.com)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：TC2000.com）</blockquote></p><p> When trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.</p><p><blockquote>当试图抓住反弹时，你必须做好平均下跌的准备。这是一种完全不同的方法。横向扩展和横向扩展....同时知道什么时候该放松。如果你想安全起见，留意反弹，然后试着进去。我确实认为该股会出现不错的反弹，回到36-40美元，但问题是什么时候。这对我个人来说不是长期持有的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，公司的发展方向有很多值得喜欢的地方。估值总是可以争论的，但归根结底，价值就是有人愿意为此付出的任何代价。Palantir是一台收入机器，而且不会放缓。他们在玩“大鱼”，只要他们能继续实现目标，收入就会随之而来。我目前做多，但密切关注本周禁售期结束。如果你打算做多，确保在接下来的几天里扩大规模，并为下周的走势下注。在外面注意安全！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip<blockquote>Palantir：买入底液</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip<blockquote>Palantir：买入底液</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-19 14:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.</li>  <li>Palantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.</li>  <li>Palantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.</li>  <li>Palantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!</li> </ul> One of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir公布了稳健的收入，但未能实现盈利。未来的预测有点令人失望。</li><li>Palantir预计2020年收入将同比增长30%，此前预计2020年收入将增长47%。</li><li>Palantir继续扩大其在多个行业的客户群。</li><li>Palantir的锁定期于2月19日结束。下注吧！</li></ul>最近最热门的股票之一是最近直接上市的Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)。一些投资者预计该公司今天将发布井喷式收益，但未能如愿。该公司确实实现了令人难以置信的收入增长，而且前进的道路看起来也很光明。然而，投资者对该公司表示的光明前景感到失望。正如预期的那样，在禁售期结束之前，该股正在下跌。下周将讲述一个更好的故事，说明这只股票的走向。如果你觉得有风险，就跳上船。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Who Are They?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们是谁？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.</p><p><blockquote>如果你和我一样，你可能不知道这家公司是谁，也不知道他们做什么。Palantir Technologies Inc.成立于2003年，总部位于科罗拉多州丹佛市。简而言之，他们为美国情报界构建和部署软件平台，以协助反恐调查和行动。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Gothamis是一个软件程序，可以识别隐藏在数据集中深处的模式。这有助于对平台内已识别的威胁执行真实世界的响应。这被用于帮助2018年佛罗伦萨飓风中有需要的人。Palantir Gotham将公开可用的洪水数据与天气信息和社会脆弱性普查数据相结合，以找到最需要的社区并适当部署资源。最近，他们向美国政府提供冠状病毒跟踪软件。</blockquote></p><p> The company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还提供Palantir Foundry，这是一个通过为组织的数据创建中央操作系统来改变组织运营方式的平台；并允许个人用户在一个地方集成和分析他们需要的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Pretty cool hey?</p><p><blockquote>很酷嘿？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Is Driving The Company?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司的驱动力是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Revenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.</p><p><blockquote>收入。这是一部成长剧，简单明了。往下看，我们可以看到未来的预测。缺失的区块是2020年，我们今天发现是11亿美元。同比增长约47%。展望未来，分析师预计年收入增长率将保持在35%以上。通常我们认为20%是强的，所以这看起来真的很好。第四季度，该公司营收为3.221亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2926257ca97794e55159ce8c6021a745\" tg-width=\"2978\" tg-height=\"992\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: TIKR.com)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：TIKR.com）</blockquote></p><p> The shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>令人震惊的是每股亏损总计0.08美元，而市场普遍预期为0.02美元。受财报消息影响，该股今天下跌超过12%。深入研究后，大多数投资者似乎对前瞻性预测感到失望。我个人认为他们有点沙袋，以消除共识，但时间会证明这有多真实。根据该公司发布的所有新闻，约翰·罗兹(John Rhodes)的文章对此进行了很好的概述：Palantir：潜在的第四季度收入井喷大多数人预计收入会超出预期，但该股上周的表现却并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Data has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>数据变得比以往任何时候都更加与普通人相关。当地新闻有各种各样关于新冠肺炎的数据。2020年，Palantir帮助100家商业组织和10个国家政府应对COVID-19。这对Palantir来说是一个巨大的机会，他们并没有浪费它。这一回应帮助thema赢得了价值3150万美元的为期两年的英国卫生服务工作合同。仅在第四季度，该公司就签署了21笔价值超过500万美元的交易。其中12个价值1000万美元或以上。收入增长将继续是Palantir的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>一些最好的业务是政府业务。今年，Palantir 56%的收入（即6.1亿美元）来自政府合同。虽然商业方面的同比增长高达107%，但政府收入增长77%并不是什么可笑的事情。更令人印象深刻的一件事是我们在普通客户身上看到的情况。收入同比增长41%。每位客户从560万美元增至790万美元。随着客户继续开发和改进其系统，将越来越多的业务移交给Palantir，这是一个需要关注的重要指标。另一个因素是Palantir吸引了更大的客户。2020年获得的新客户创造了4200万美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9284f5fd3e26d0c55fcd9b2f6355371e\" tg-width=\"1752\" tg-height=\"983\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> (Company Presentation)</p><p><blockquote>（公司介绍）</blockquote></p><p> So all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>所以所有这些，我们今天仍然坐在12%？正如我上面提到的，人们对前瞻性预测感到有点震惊。Palantir表示，预计2021年收入增长将超过30%。对于大多数公司来说，这将是一个好消息，但在您刚刚公布了47%的增长年度之后，这有点令人难过。但正如我所说，我认为他们有点沙袋。分析师仍预计2021年将增长约35%。直觉告诉我，随着时间的推移，他们会超越这一目标。该公司确实表示，他们的目标是到2025年实现40亿美元的收入，从现在开始每年增长30%。根据目前的预测，我完全预计这个数字将接近50亿美元。Palantir正在追逐多个行业的“大鱼”。他们的客户中有8家属于财富100强，12家属于全球100强。随着他们产品的不断开发和改进，他们的底线只会越来越好。我认为从长远来看，这里有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Are The Risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有哪些风险？</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.</p><p><blockquote>即将到来的风险之一是禁售期结束，我将在下面谈到这一点。除此之外，我会看看政府的合同。是的，它们是最重要的，但这并不是说它们没有风险。Palantir过去曾表示，他们需要更多地关注商业客户，以帮助盈利并扭亏为盈（这是盈利抛售的部分原因）。正如我们所看到的，他们已经获得了一些大型商业客户，但政府方面仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Something to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住的是，与政府打交道可能会导致跨越一些人不同意的界限。据《华盛顿邮报》报道，2018年，200多名员工签署了一封致首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普的信，理由是对与移民和海关执法局合作的担忧。过去，其他多家大型科技公司因潜在侵犯人权而被迫切断与政府机构的联系。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我确实认为该公司将继续在商业领域表现出色，并随着时间的推移减少整体政府风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是“禁售期”？</b></blockquote></p><p> The one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.</p><p><blockquote>许多人对Palantir的一个担忧是锁定期，锁定期将于2月19日（星期五）结束。通常情况下，这是我们会看到走这条路线的IPO出现低点的地方，但情况并非总是如此。</blockquote></p><p>   Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.  What is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.</p><p><blockquote>从10月前两周锁定期到期的15只股票来看，大多数股票在到期日前几天开始下跌，三到五天后反弹。然而，一些人当天几乎没有抛售压力，锁定结束后股价立即攀升。这是什么？简而言之，我们不是通过首次公开募股（IPO）来创建公司的新股并由中介机构承销，而是直接上市。这是企业直接向公众出售股票的方式，无需任何中介机构的帮助。不涉及任何承销商或其他中介机构，不存在发行新股的情况。这意味着该业务的最大股东只能在IPO禁售期到期后自由出售其股份。Spotify(SPOT)和Slack(WORK)是直接上市公司的两个例子。也就是说，这两家公司都没有员工锁定期。</blockquote></p><p> So what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:</p><p><blockquote>那么这意味着什么呢？好吧，鉴于MarketWatch表示：</blockquote></p><p>   For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.  It means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于Palantir来说，多年的风险资本投资已经创造了足够的股票来启动公开交易：大约16.4亿股，尽管在包括归属期权在内的完全稀释公式中，这一数字将增长至21.7亿股。这意味着，目前流通股约为4.97亿股，我们可能会看到约17亿股上市。现在这种可能性不大，但这确实意味着，考虑到IPO通常占已发行股票的10%，而根据上面提供的数字，Palantir发行的股票超过20%，该股的抛售压力应该低于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Where are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在在哪里？根据前面引用的研究，我们正走在正轨上。就在禁售期结束之前，该股正在有序抛售。现在我们必须拭目以待，看看反弹的情况如何。还是每个人都卖得很高，然后试图买得更低？这有点观望。让我们来看看技术向我们展示了什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does The Price Say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下技术面，我们可以看到几个非常强大的支撑位。首先，我们今天突破了30美元的一个相当大的水平，而且是以一种很大的方式突破的，这在短期内有点令人担忧，但有可能快速反弹以迅速重新测试30美元大关。如果说这些市场教会了我们什么，那就是它们可以快速行动！在正常情况下，这可能是我的停留点。但是直到今天我才有了头寸，随着我承担更多的风险，游戏发生了一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b568bf73db2c1b38aaa1546a10427dc\" tg-width=\"3837\" tg-height=\"1813\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: TC2000.com)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：TC2000.com）</blockquote></p><p> When a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.</p><p><blockquote>当像Palantir这样受欢迎的股票像我们今天看到的那样下跌时，会发生两件事之一。要么逢低买入，这只股票将飞回40美元，要么我们看到Palantir跌至23美元左右。因为股票太新了，我们确实没有一个好的支撑指标。看下面，我们可以大致看到我从哪里提取了23美元。这是一个相当大的举措。大约会下降20%。如果突破23美元，它可能会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3505c465c407b7387cbedf16a1b233\" tg-width=\"3840\" tg-height=\"1808\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: TC2000.com)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：TC2000.com）</blockquote></p><p> When trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.</p><p><blockquote>当试图抓住反弹时，你必须做好平均下跌的准备。这是一种完全不同的方法。横向扩展和横向扩展....同时知道什么时候该放松。如果你想安全起见，留意反弹，然后试着进去。我确实认为该股会出现不错的反弹，回到36-40美元，但问题是什么时候。这对我个人来说不是长期持有的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，公司的发展方向有很多值得喜欢的地方。估值总是可以争论的，但归根结底，价值就是有人愿意为此付出的任何代价。Palantir是一台收入机器，而且不会放缓。他们在玩“大鱼”，只要他们能继续实现目标，收入就会随之而来。我目前做多，但密切关注本周禁售期结束。如果你打算做多，确保在接下来的几天里扩大规模，并为下周的走势下注。在外面注意安全！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100960455","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\nPalantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.\nPalantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!\n\nOne of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.\nWho Are They?\nIf you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.\nPalantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.\nThe company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.\nPretty cool hey?\nWhat Is Driving The Company?\nRevenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.\n\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThe shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.\nData has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.\nSome of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.\n\n(Company Presentation)\nSo all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.\nWhat Are The Risks?\nOne of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.\nSomething to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.\nThat said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.\nWhat's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?\nThe one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.\n\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n\nWhat is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.\nSo what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:\n\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n\nIt means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.\nWhere are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.\nWhat Does The Price Say?\nTaking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.\nWrap-Up\nAs you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385882686,"gmtCreate":1613530897845,"gmtModify":1634553275726,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385882686","repostId":"1131743000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131743000","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613466841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131743000?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 17:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note<blockquote>沃尔玛公布第四季度收益：需要注意的关键事项</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131743000","media":"Zacks","summary":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lin","content":"<p><b>Walmart Inc.</b>&nbsp;is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛公司。</b>当该公司于2月18日开市前报告2021财年第四季度数据时，可能会继续其稳健趋势，并见证营收和利润的增长。Zacks对收益的一致预期在过去30天内增加了2%，达到每股1.50美元，这也表明比去年同期报告的数字增长了8.7%。值得注意的是，沃尔玛在上一季度的盈利意外增长了12.6%。此外，这家超市巨头过去四个季度的平均盈利意外增长11.1%。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Zacks对收入的一致估计为1,464亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长3.4%。然而，销售增长率似乎将环比放缓。该公司在上一季度的业绩增长了5.2%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3ea555b99d5d59d69e6ac464f3e786\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p>Walmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.</p><p><blockquote>由于冠状病毒导致的家庭消费增加以及库存囤积，沃尔玛一直受益于需求的蓬勃发展。此外，更高的居家趋势正在推动该公司的电子商务销售。该公司在第三季度收益看涨期权上表示，今年美国商店员工数量增加了一倍，支持公司的数字化和全渠道努力。当然，沃尔玛强大的商店网络和不断增长的数字能力的结合是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan &amp; Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，沃尔玛一直在大力加强其送货部门，特别是在大流行导致需求增加的情况下。这从该公司推出的Walmart+会员计划中可见一斑；美国的无人机送货飞行员与Flytrex、Zipline和DroneUp以及一名与Cruise一起测试通过自动驾驶全电动汽车运送杂货的飞行员。沃尔玛还在第三季度宣布与Door Dash结盟，从山姆会员店的药房提供处方，同时将Scan&amp;Go扩展到美国山姆会员店的所有加油站。在此之前，沃尔玛第一季度在多家商店推出了快递服务，这有助于其在不到两个小时的时间内将订单交付给顾客。截至第三财季，沃尔玛美国拥有3,600个提货点和2,900个当日送达点。</blockquote></p><p>These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.</p><p><blockquote>这些因素一直在推动沃尔玛的电子商务业务，加上其为提振商店销售所做的扎实努力，帮助其美国公司销售额在上一季度连续第25次增长。我们注意到，这家大型零售商一直在采取多项措施来增加商品种类，并且还专注于商店改造，通过先进的店内和数字创新来升级它们。除此之外，该公司独特的优惠和优惠活动，以及其他充分利用消费者不断变化的购物需求和假期的举措可能会取得成果。</blockquote></p><p>That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我们不能忽视公司定价投资对利润率的影响。此外，该公司一直面临与COVID-19相关的高成本，例如更高的工资和福利以及与消毒和其他安全措施相关的成本。该公司在2021财年第三季度产生了约6亿美元与COVID-19相关的额外成本。看涨期权管理层在上次财报中表示，预计与大流行相关的成本将在一段时间内占上风，同时全球还存在一些普遍的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note<blockquote>沃尔玛公布第四季度收益：需要注意的关键事项</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note<blockquote>沃尔玛公布第四季度收益：需要注意的关键事项</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zacks</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 17:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Walmart Inc.</b>&nbsp;is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛公司。</b>当该公司于2月18日开市前报告2021财年第四季度数据时，可能会继续其稳健趋势，并见证营收和利润的增长。Zacks对收益的一致预期在过去30天内增加了2%，达到每股1.50美元，这也表明比去年同期报告的数字增长了8.7%。值得注意的是，沃尔玛在上一季度的盈利意外增长了12.6%。此外，这家超市巨头过去四个季度的平均盈利意外增长11.1%。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Zacks对收入的一致估计为1,464亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长3.4%。然而，销售增长率似乎将环比放缓。该公司在上一季度的业绩增长了5.2%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3ea555b99d5d59d69e6ac464f3e786\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p>Walmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.</p><p><blockquote>由于冠状病毒导致的家庭消费增加以及库存囤积，沃尔玛一直受益于需求的蓬勃发展。此外，更高的居家趋势正在推动该公司的电子商务销售。该公司在第三季度收益看涨期权上表示，今年美国商店员工数量增加了一倍，支持公司的数字化和全渠道努力。当然，沃尔玛强大的商店网络和不断增长的数字能力的结合是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan &amp; Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，沃尔玛一直在大力加强其送货部门，特别是在大流行导致需求增加的情况下。这从该公司推出的Walmart+会员计划中可见一斑；美国的无人机送货飞行员与Flytrex、Zipline和DroneUp以及一名与Cruise一起测试通过自动驾驶全电动汽车运送杂货的飞行员。沃尔玛还在第三季度宣布与Door Dash结盟，从山姆会员店的药房提供处方，同时将Scan&amp;Go扩展到美国山姆会员店的所有加油站。在此之前，沃尔玛第一季度在多家商店推出了快递服务，这有助于其在不到两个小时的时间内将订单交付给顾客。截至第三财季，沃尔玛美国拥有3,600个提货点和2,900个当日送达点。</blockquote></p><p>These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.</p><p><blockquote>这些因素一直在推动沃尔玛的电子商务业务，加上其为提振商店销售所做的扎实努力，帮助其美国公司销售额在上一季度连续第25次增长。我们注意到，这家大型零售商一直在采取多项措施来增加商品种类，并且还专注于商店改造，通过先进的店内和数字创新来升级它们。除此之外，该公司独特的优惠和优惠活动，以及其他充分利用消费者不断变化的购物需求和假期的举措可能会取得成果。</blockquote></p><p>That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我们不能忽视公司定价投资对利润率的影响。此外，该公司一直面临与COVID-19相关的高成本，例如更高的工资和福利以及与消毒和其他安全措施相关的成本。该公司在2021财年第三季度产生了约6亿美元与COVID-19相关的额外成本。看涨期权管理层在上次财报中表示，预计与大流行相关的成本将在一段时间内占上风，同时全球还存在一些普遍的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note\">Zacks</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131743000","content_text":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.Key Factors to NoteWalmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan & Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382239175,"gmtCreate":1613449443497,"gmtModify":1634553635762,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382239175","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","STX":"希捷科技",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","WDC":"西部数据","AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"WDC":0.9,"STX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388926308,"gmtCreate":1613012775404,"gmtModify":1703768366494,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388926308","repostId":"2110094289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388968686,"gmtCreate":1613011553145,"gmtModify":1703768353023,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388968686","repostId":"2110350049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388969196,"gmtCreate":1613011272315,"gmtModify":1703768348187,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388969196","repostId":"1144142338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383333245,"gmtCreate":1612836555087,"gmtModify":1703765653306,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383333245","repostId":"2110005307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110005307","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1612823470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110005307?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 06:31","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?<blockquote>专业人士如何看待特斯拉的比特币投资？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110005307","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and ac","content":"<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>&nbsp;investor Ron Baron says&nbsp;the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>投资者罗恩·巴伦(Ron Baron)表示，该公司决定投资15亿美元购买比特币(BTC)并接受这种数字货币作为支付选择“并不令人意外”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement&nbsp;to CNBC. It's likely&nbsp;Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p><p><blockquote><b>马斯克点赞比特币：</b>Baron在给CNBC的声明中表示，特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk对比特币的“好评”已经有一段时间了。特斯拉很可能不是在“猜测比特币的价格”，而是将其用作支付系统。</blockquote></p><p> Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp.,&nbsp;are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like&nbsp;<b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b>&nbsp;are building out its digital currency offerings.</p><p><blockquote>Stanley Druckenmiller和Tudor Investment Corp.首席信息官Paul Tudor Jones等其他重量级投资者同样看好比特币，而像<b>Paypal控股公司</b>正在开发其数字货币产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Funds首席执行官、董事长兼投资组合经理Baron表示：“我确信特斯拉在收购比特币时经过了很多思考，我期待了解其理由。”</blockquote></p><p> Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p><p><blockquote>Loup Ventures的Gene Munster也喜欢此举。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特告诉Benzinga：“特斯拉拥有190亿美元的资产，可以赔钱。”“是的，比特币可以推动特斯拉的发展。如果价格上涨10倍，特斯拉将获得150亿美元。这是真金白银。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC.&nbsp;People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years —&nbsp;not the last 100 years.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币投资：</b>Galaxy Digital首席执行官Michael Novogratz告诉CNBC，特斯拉决定将其总现金的7.5%左右分配给比特币，这可以被视为向客户发出的信号，它“了解世界的发展方向”。人们希望开展业务并投资于展望未来100年——而不是过去100年——的公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，马斯克不应该在推特上发布有关狗狗币的信息，因为这种数字货币的升值已经达到了一些人将损失很多钱的程度，他说。与比特币或以太币等人不同，数字硬币没有真正的目的。</blockquote></p><p> \"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p><p><blockquote>“这有点好笑，”诺沃格拉茨说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p><p><blockquote><b>很难证明任何操纵：</b>马斯克看好比特币已经有一段时间了，这就引出了一个问题，他的公开言论是否可以被视为市场操纵。浑水研究创始人卡森·布洛克表示，他认为情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;call options.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克远不是投资界唯一公开评论他看好的东西的知名人士。马斯克的言论与Chamath Palihapitiya确认他做多没有什么不同<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>看涨期权期权。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，布洛克告诉CNBC，美国证券交易委员会对马斯克“没有成功的记录”。因此，任何调查都可能导致“死胡同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?<blockquote>专业人士如何看待特斯拉的比特币投资？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?<blockquote>专业人士如何看待特斯拉的比特币投资？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-09 06:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>&nbsp;investor Ron Baron says&nbsp;the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>投资者罗恩·巴伦(Ron Baron)表示，该公司决定投资15亿美元购买比特币(BTC)并接受这种数字货币作为支付选择“并不令人意外”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement&nbsp;to CNBC. It's likely&nbsp;Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p><p><blockquote><b>马斯克点赞比特币：</b>Baron在给CNBC的声明中表示，特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk对比特币的“好评”已经有一段时间了。特斯拉很可能不是在“猜测比特币的价格”，而是将其用作支付系统。</blockquote></p><p> Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp.,&nbsp;are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like&nbsp;<b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b>&nbsp;are building out its digital currency offerings.</p><p><blockquote>Stanley Druckenmiller和Tudor Investment Corp.首席信息官Paul Tudor Jones等其他重量级投资者同样看好比特币，而像<b>Paypal控股公司</b>正在开发其数字货币产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Funds首席执行官、董事长兼投资组合经理Baron表示：“我确信特斯拉在收购比特币时经过了很多思考，我期待了解其理由。”</blockquote></p><p> Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p><p><blockquote>Loup Ventures的Gene Munster也喜欢此举。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特告诉Benzinga：“特斯拉拥有190亿美元的资产，可以赔钱。”“是的，比特币可以推动特斯拉的发展。如果价格上涨10倍，特斯拉将获得150亿美元。这是真金白银。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC.&nbsp;People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years —&nbsp;not the last 100 years.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币投资：</b>Galaxy Digital首席执行官Michael Novogratz告诉CNBC，特斯拉决定将其总现金的7.5%左右分配给比特币，这可以被视为向客户发出的信号，它“了解世界的发展方向”。人们希望开展业务并投资于展望未来100年——而不是过去100年——的公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，马斯克不应该在推特上发布有关狗狗币的信息，因为这种数字货币的升值已经达到了一些人将损失很多钱的程度，他说。与比特币或以太币等人不同，数字硬币没有真正的目的。</blockquote></p><p> \"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p><p><blockquote>“这有点好笑，”诺沃格拉茨说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p><p><blockquote><b>很难证明任何操纵：</b>马斯克看好比特币已经有一段时间了，这就引出了一个问题，他的公开言论是否可以被视为市场操纵。浑水研究创始人卡森·布洛克表示，他认为情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;call options.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克远不是投资界唯一公开评论他看好的东西的知名人士。马斯克的言论与Chamath Palihapitiya确认他做多没有什么不同<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>看涨期权期权。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，布洛克告诉CNBC，美国证券交易委员会对马斯克“没有成功的记录”。因此，任何调查都可能导致“死胡同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110005307","content_text":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"\nMusk Likes Bitcoin:Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.\nOther heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like Paypal Holdings Inc are building out its digital currency offerings.\n\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.\nLoup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.\n\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"\nBitcoin Investment:Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.\nOn the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.\n\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.\nHard To Prove Any Manipulation:Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.\nMusk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long GameStop Corp. call options.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383392675,"gmtCreate":1612836048997,"gmtModify":1703765645403,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40658d3800c39ab856476200c73107ab","width":"720","height":"829"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383392675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":363293115,"gmtCreate":1614139411637,"gmtModify":1634551020705,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363293115","repostId":"1164032196","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383333245,"gmtCreate":1612836555087,"gmtModify":1703765653306,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383333245","repostId":"2110005307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110005307","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1612823470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110005307?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 06:31","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?<blockquote>专业人士如何看待特斯拉的比特币投资？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110005307","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and ac","content":"<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>&nbsp;investor Ron Baron says&nbsp;the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>投资者罗恩·巴伦(Ron Baron)表示，该公司决定投资15亿美元购买比特币(BTC)并接受这种数字货币作为支付选择“并不令人意外”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement&nbsp;to CNBC. It's likely&nbsp;Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p><p><blockquote><b>马斯克点赞比特币：</b>Baron在给CNBC的声明中表示，特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk对比特币的“好评”已经有一段时间了。特斯拉很可能不是在“猜测比特币的价格”，而是将其用作支付系统。</blockquote></p><p> Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp.,&nbsp;are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like&nbsp;<b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b>&nbsp;are building out its digital currency offerings.</p><p><blockquote>Stanley Druckenmiller和Tudor Investment Corp.首席信息官Paul Tudor Jones等其他重量级投资者同样看好比特币，而像<b>Paypal控股公司</b>正在开发其数字货币产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Funds首席执行官、董事长兼投资组合经理Baron表示：“我确信特斯拉在收购比特币时经过了很多思考，我期待了解其理由。”</blockquote></p><p> Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p><p><blockquote>Loup Ventures的Gene Munster也喜欢此举。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特告诉Benzinga：“特斯拉拥有190亿美元的资产，可以赔钱。”“是的，比特币可以推动特斯拉的发展。如果价格上涨10倍，特斯拉将获得150亿美元。这是真金白银。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC.&nbsp;People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years —&nbsp;not the last 100 years.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币投资：</b>Galaxy Digital首席执行官Michael Novogratz告诉CNBC，特斯拉决定将其总现金的7.5%左右分配给比特币，这可以被视为向客户发出的信号，它“了解世界的发展方向”。人们希望开展业务并投资于展望未来100年——而不是过去100年——的公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，马斯克不应该在推特上发布有关狗狗币的信息，因为这种数字货币的升值已经达到了一些人将损失很多钱的程度，他说。与比特币或以太币等人不同，数字硬币没有真正的目的。</blockquote></p><p> \"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p><p><blockquote>“这有点好笑，”诺沃格拉茨说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p><p><blockquote><b>很难证明任何操纵：</b>马斯克看好比特币已经有一段时间了，这就引出了一个问题，他的公开言论是否可以被视为市场操纵。浑水研究创始人卡森·布洛克表示，他认为情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;call options.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克远不是投资界唯一公开评论他看好的东西的知名人士。马斯克的言论与Chamath Palihapitiya确认他做多没有什么不同<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>看涨期权期权。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，布洛克告诉CNBC，美国证券交易委员会对马斯克“没有成功的记录”。因此，任何调查都可能导致“死胡同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?<blockquote>专业人士如何看待特斯拉的比特币投资？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Do The Pros Think About Tesla's Bitcoin Investment?<blockquote>专业人士如何看待特斯拉的比特币投资？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-09 06:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>&nbsp;investor Ron Baron says&nbsp;the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>投资者罗恩·巴伦(Ron Baron)表示，该公司决定投资15亿美元购买比特币(BTC)并接受这种数字货币作为支付选择“并不令人意外”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Musk Likes Bitcoin:</b>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement&nbsp;to CNBC. It's likely&nbsp;Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.</p><p><blockquote><b>马斯克点赞比特币：</b>Baron在给CNBC的声明中表示，特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk对比特币的“好评”已经有一段时间了。特斯拉很可能不是在“猜测比特币的价格”，而是将其用作支付系统。</blockquote></p><p> Other heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp.,&nbsp;are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like&nbsp;<b>Paypal Holdings Inc</b>&nbsp;are building out its digital currency offerings.</p><p><blockquote>Stanley Druckenmiller和Tudor Investment Corp.首席信息官Paul Tudor Jones等其他重量级投资者同样看好比特币，而像<b>Paypal控股公司</b>正在开发其数字货币产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Funds首席执行官、董事长兼投资组合经理Baron表示：“我确信特斯拉在收购比特币时经过了很多思考，我期待了解其理由。”</blockquote></p><p> Loup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.</p><p><blockquote>Loup Ventures的Gene Munster也喜欢此举。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特告诉Benzinga：“特斯拉拥有190亿美元的资产，可以赔钱。”“是的，比特币可以推动特斯拉的发展。如果价格上涨10倍，特斯拉将获得150亿美元。这是真金白银。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Investment:</b>Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC.&nbsp;People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years —&nbsp;not the last 100 years.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币投资：</b>Galaxy Digital首席执行官Michael Novogratz告诉CNBC，特斯拉决定将其总现金的7.5%左右分配给比特币，这可以被视为向客户发出的信号，它“了解世界的发展方向”。人们希望开展业务并投资于展望未来100年——而不是过去100年——的公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，马斯克不应该在推特上发布有关狗狗币的信息，因为这种数字货币的升值已经达到了一些人将损失很多钱的程度，他说。与比特币或以太币等人不同，数字硬币没有真正的目的。</blockquote></p><p> \"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.</p><p><blockquote>“这有点好笑，”诺沃格拉茨说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hard To Prove Any Manipulation:</b>Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.</p><p><blockquote><b>很难证明任何操纵：</b>马斯克看好比特币已经有一段时间了，这就引出了一个问题，他的公开言论是否可以被视为市场操纵。浑水研究创始人卡森·布洛克表示，他认为情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Musk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;call options.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克远不是投资界唯一公开评论他看好的东西的知名人士。马斯克的言论与Chamath Palihapitiya确认他做多没有什么不同<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>看涨期权期权。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，布洛克告诉CNBC，美国证券交易委员会对马斯克“没有成功的记录”。因此，任何调查都可能导致“死胡同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110005307","content_text":"Tesla Inc investor Ron Baron says the company's decisionto invest $1.5 billion inBitcoin(BTC) and accept the digital currency as a payment option is \"not surprising.\"\nMusk Likes Bitcoin:Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been \"commenting favorably\" on bitcoin for a while, Baronsaid in the statement to CNBC. It's likely Tesla is not \"speculating on the price of bitcoin,\" rather using it as a payment system.\nOther heavyweight investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, CIO of Tudor Investment Corp., are equally bullish on bitcoin, while companies like Paypal Holdings Inc are building out its digital currency offerings.\n\"I'm sure a lot of thought went into bitcoin purchase by Tesla and I look forward to learning the rationale,\" according to Baron, the CEO, chairman and portfolio manager of Baron Funds.\nLoup Ventures' Gene Munster also likes the move.\n\"Tesla has money to lose with $19 billion in assets,\" Munster told Benzinga. \"Yes, Bitcoin can move the needle for Tesla. If it goes up 10x, that's $15 billion to Tesla. That's real money.\"\nBitcoin Investment:Tesla's decision to allocate around 7.5% of its total cash into bitcoin and could be seen as a signal to customers it \"understands where the world is going,\" Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratztold CNBC. People want to do business and invest in companies that are looking forward to the next 100 years — not the last 100 years.\nOn the other hand, Musk shouldn't be tweeting about Dogecoin as the digital currency's appreciation has reached a point where some people will lose a lot of money, he said. The digital coin has no real purpose, unlike bitcoin or Ethereum and others.\n\"It was funny for a little bit,\" Novogratz said.\nHard To Prove Any Manipulation:Musk has been bullish on bitcoin for some time and this begs the question if his public comments can be seen as market manipulation. Muddy Waters Research Founder Carson Block said he doesn't think this is the case.\nMusk is far from the only notable persona in the investment community to publicly comment on what he is bullish on. Musk's comments are no different from Chamath Palihapitiya confirming he is long GameStop Corp. call options.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission \"does not have a record of success\" against Musk,Block told CNBC. As such, any investigation would likely lead to a \"dead end.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360469077,"gmtCreate":1613966332999,"gmtModify":1634551730985,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360469077","repostId":"1100960455","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385882686,"gmtCreate":1613530897845,"gmtModify":1634553275726,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385882686","repostId":"1131743000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131743000","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613466841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131743000?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 17:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note<blockquote>沃尔玛公布第四季度收益：需要注意的关键事项</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131743000","media":"Zacks","summary":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lin","content":"<p><b>Walmart Inc.</b>&nbsp;is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛公司。</b>当该公司于2月18日开市前报告2021财年第四季度数据时，可能会继续其稳健趋势，并见证营收和利润的增长。Zacks对收益的一致预期在过去30天内增加了2%，达到每股1.50美元，这也表明比去年同期报告的数字增长了8.7%。值得注意的是，沃尔玛在上一季度的盈利意外增长了12.6%。此外，这家超市巨头过去四个季度的平均盈利意外增长11.1%。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Zacks对收入的一致估计为1,464亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长3.4%。然而，销售增长率似乎将环比放缓。该公司在上一季度的业绩增长了5.2%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3ea555b99d5d59d69e6ac464f3e786\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p>Walmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.</p><p><blockquote>由于冠状病毒导致的家庭消费增加以及库存囤积，沃尔玛一直受益于需求的蓬勃发展。此外，更高的居家趋势正在推动该公司的电子商务销售。该公司在第三季度收益看涨期权上表示，今年美国商店员工数量增加了一倍，支持公司的数字化和全渠道努力。当然，沃尔玛强大的商店网络和不断增长的数字能力的结合是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan &amp; Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，沃尔玛一直在大力加强其送货部门，特别是在大流行导致需求增加的情况下。这从该公司推出的Walmart+会员计划中可见一斑；美国的无人机送货飞行员与Flytrex、Zipline和DroneUp以及一名与Cruise一起测试通过自动驾驶全电动汽车运送杂货的飞行员。沃尔玛还在第三季度宣布与Door Dash结盟，从山姆会员店的药房提供处方，同时将Scan&amp;Go扩展到美国山姆会员店的所有加油站。在此之前，沃尔玛第一季度在多家商店推出了快递服务，这有助于其在不到两个小时的时间内将订单交付给顾客。截至第三财季，沃尔玛美国拥有3,600个提货点和2,900个当日送达点。</blockquote></p><p>These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.</p><p><blockquote>这些因素一直在推动沃尔玛的电子商务业务，加上其为提振商店销售所做的扎实努力，帮助其美国公司销售额在上一季度连续第25次增长。我们注意到，这家大型零售商一直在采取多项措施来增加商品种类，并且还专注于商店改造，通过先进的店内和数字创新来升级它们。除此之外，该公司独特的优惠和优惠活动，以及其他充分利用消费者不断变化的购物需求和假期的举措可能会取得成果。</blockquote></p><p>That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我们不能忽视公司定价投资对利润率的影响。此外，该公司一直面临与COVID-19相关的高成本，例如更高的工资和福利以及与消毒和其他安全措施相关的成本。该公司在2021财年第三季度产生了约6亿美元与COVID-19相关的额外成本。看涨期权管理层在上次财报中表示，预计与大流行相关的成本将在一段时间内占上风，同时全球还存在一些普遍的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note<blockquote>沃尔玛公布第四季度收益：需要注意的关键事项</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Things to Note<blockquote>沃尔玛公布第四季度收益：需要注意的关键事项</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zacks</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 17:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Walmart Inc.</b>&nbsp;is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛公司。</b>当该公司于2月18日开市前报告2021财年第四季度数据时，可能会继续其稳健趋势，并见证营收和利润的增长。Zacks对收益的一致预期在过去30天内增加了2%，达到每股1.50美元，这也表明比去年同期报告的数字增长了8.7%。值得注意的是，沃尔玛在上一季度的盈利意外增长了12.6%。此外，这家超市巨头过去四个季度的平均盈利意外增长11.1%。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Zacks对收入的一致估计为1,464亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长3.4%。然而，销售增长率似乎将环比放缓。该公司在上一季度的业绩增长了5.2%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3ea555b99d5d59d69e6ac464f3e786\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p>Walmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.</p><p><blockquote>由于冠状病毒导致的家庭消费增加以及库存囤积，沃尔玛一直受益于需求的蓬勃发展。此外，更高的居家趋势正在推动该公司的电子商务销售。该公司在第三季度收益看涨期权上表示，今年美国商店员工数量增加了一倍，支持公司的数字化和全渠道努力。当然，沃尔玛强大的商店网络和不断增长的数字能力的结合是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan &amp; Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，沃尔玛一直在大力加强其送货部门，特别是在大流行导致需求增加的情况下。这从该公司推出的Walmart+会员计划中可见一斑；美国的无人机送货飞行员与Flytrex、Zipline和DroneUp以及一名与Cruise一起测试通过自动驾驶全电动汽车运送杂货的飞行员。沃尔玛还在第三季度宣布与Door Dash结盟，从山姆会员店的药房提供处方，同时将Scan&amp;Go扩展到美国山姆会员店的所有加油站。在此之前，沃尔玛第一季度在多家商店推出了快递服务，这有助于其在不到两个小时的时间内将订单交付给顾客。截至第三财季，沃尔玛美国拥有3,600个提货点和2,900个当日送达点。</blockquote></p><p>These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.</p><p><blockquote>这些因素一直在推动沃尔玛的电子商务业务，加上其为提振商店销售所做的扎实努力，帮助其美国公司销售额在上一季度连续第25次增长。我们注意到，这家大型零售商一直在采取多项措施来增加商品种类，并且还专注于商店改造，通过先进的店内和数字创新来升级它们。除此之外，该公司独特的优惠和优惠活动，以及其他充分利用消费者不断变化的购物需求和假期的举措可能会取得成果。</blockquote></p><p>That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我们不能忽视公司定价投资对利润率的影响。此外，该公司一直面临与COVID-19相关的高成本，例如更高的工资和福利以及与消毒和其他安全措施相关的成本。该公司在2021财年第三季度产生了约6亿美元与COVID-19相关的额外成本。看涨期权管理层在上次财报中表示，预计与大流行相关的成本将在一段时间内占上风，同时全球还存在一些普遍的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note\">Zacks</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1263335/walmart-wmt-lined-up-for-q4-earnings-key-things-to-note","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131743000","content_text":"Walmart Inc. is likely to continue with its solid trend and witness a rise in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Feb 18, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased 2% in the past 30 days to $1.50 per share, which also indicates growth of 8.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Markedly, Walmart delivered an earnings surprise of 12.6% in the last reported quarter. Further, the supermarket giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.1%, on average.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $146.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. However, it looks like the rate of sales growth will decelerate on a sequential basis. The company had witnessed an increase of 5.2% in the last reported quarter.Key Factors to NoteWalmart has been benefiting from burgeoning demand amid coronavirus-led elevated at-home consumption as well as stock hoarding. Further, higher stay-at-home trends are boosting the company’s e-commerce sales. The company, on its third-quarter earnings call, said that it has doubled the U.S. store associate count this year, supporting the company’s digital and omnichannel efforts. Certainly, Walmart’s combination of a robust store network and growing digital capacity bodes well.Incidentally, Walmart has been taking robust strides to strengthen its delivery arm, especially amid the pandemic-led increased demand. This is evident from the company’s launch of the Walmart+ membership program; drone delivery pilots in the United States with Flytrex, Zipline and DroneUp; and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. Walmart also unveiled an alliance with Door Dash in the third quarter to deliver prescriptions from pharmacies of Sam’s Club, alongside expanding Scan & Go to all fuel stations at U.S. Sam’s Clubs. Prior to this, Walmart unveiled Express Delivery during the first quarter at several stores, which helps it deliver orders to customers in less than two hours. As of the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. had 3,600 pickup locations and 2,900 same-day delivery locations.These factors have been boosting Walmart’s e-commerce business, which along with its solid efforts to bolster store sales helped its U.S. comp sales to increase for the 25th straight time in the last reported quarter. We note that the big-box retailer has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments and it has also been focused on store remodeling, to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Apart from these, the company’s unique deals and saving events, along with other initiatives to make the most of consumers’ evolving shopping needs and the holiday season are likely to have yielded results.That being said, we cannot ignore the impact of the company’s pricing investments on margins. Also, the company has been seeing high costs related to COVID-19, like higher wages and benefits along with costs associated with sanitization and other safety measures. The company incurred roughly $600 million as additional costs related to COVID-19 in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Management in its last earnings call said that it expects pandemic-related costs to prevail for a while, alongside some general uncertainties globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382239175,"gmtCreate":1613449443497,"gmtModify":1634553635762,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382239175","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","STX":"希捷科技",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","WDC":"西部数据","AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"WDC":0.9,"STX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388926308,"gmtCreate":1613012775404,"gmtModify":1703768366494,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388926308","repostId":"2110094289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388968686,"gmtCreate":1613011553145,"gmtModify":1703768353023,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388968686","repostId":"2110350049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388969196,"gmtCreate":1613011272315,"gmtModify":1703768348187,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388969196","repostId":"1144142338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383392675,"gmtCreate":1612836048997,"gmtModify":1703765645403,"author":{"id":"3569038040645453","authorId":"3569038040645453","name":"low289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4beee80667de11650c8be9fbbde369","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569038040645453","authorIdStr":"3569038040645453"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40658d3800c39ab856476200c73107ab","width":"720","height":"829"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383392675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}