YoungYoungYo的个人主页 - 老虎社区

YoungYoungYo

YoungYoungYo

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IP属地：上海

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0勋章

2021-05-18

$百度集团-SW(09888)$据小道消息，一季度财报特别好看

2021-05-10

30块钱太贵了吧，比出租车贵多了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-10

$百度(BIDU)$第一季度财报会很好看，但可能还会跌，这个股就是神奇

2021-04-08

应该是解决上研这里工位不足的问题。。每天找坑位能找半个小时

@美股研究社:百度关联企业在上海成立新公司，注册资本2亿元

2021-03-31

$知乎(ZH)$我说句不好听的，知乎的技术是所有互联网大公司里最烂的，经常宕机

2021-03-26

$百度(BIDU)$外国资本大幅流出，就国内资本苦苦支撑了

2021-03-26

$百度(BIDU)$发生了什么？？

2021-03-25

$百度(BIDU)$也没啥利空消息为啥会跌跌不休

2021-03-23

$百度(BIDU)$被大环境带垮了，选择在熊市第二次上市，就要有破发的觉悟。

2021-03-16

百度啥时候退市了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-04

$百度(BIDU)$大盘狂跌，可能要血崩

2021-03-02

有一说一，名字有点难听。

快讯！百度、吉利成立新能源汽车公司“集度”

2021-02-19

$小米集团ADR(XIACY)$小米要造车了。不明白拿什么造，自动驾驶这块一点经验没有。

2021-02-17

$百度(BIDU)$今天回调

2021-02-13

$百度(BIDU)$昨天的陈友谅呢？？继续做空啊？删什么贴啊

2021-02-10

$百度(BIDU)$春节前起飞，给百度最好的新年礼物

2021-02-09

$百度(BIDU)$今晚破新高

2021-02-08

$快手-W(01024)$赶紧撤吧，这股不值这么多市值。全都是泡沫

2021-02-03

$百度(BIDU)$今天肯定要超越蔚来了

2021-02-01

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$我猜这波上涨是跟blg打赢rng有关？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>快讯！百度、吉利成立新能源汽车公司“集度”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210302180009798e777c&s=b><strong>中国经济周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中国经济周刊-经济网讯天眼查APP显示，3月2日，集度汽车有限公司注册成立，注册资本20亿元。经营范围为新能源汽车整车及相关零部件的技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；汽车零部件及配件制造；新能源汽车整车销售等。天眼查APP显示，集度汽车有限公司由达孜县百瑞翔创业投资管理有限责任公司和上海华普汽车有限公司共同持股，前者持有股份为55%。达孜县百瑞翔由北京百度网讯科技有限公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210302180009798e777c&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a11ce01a8b984f6556550c8dba00e7f","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","00175":"吉利汽车","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210302180009798e777c&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2116981975","content_text":"中国经济周刊-经济网讯天眼查APP显示，3月2日，集度汽车有限公司注册成立，注册资本20亿元。经营范围为新能源汽车整车及相关零部件的技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；汽车零部件及配件制造；新能源汽车整车销售等。天眼查APP显示，集度汽车有限公司由达孜县百瑞翔创业投资管理有限责任公司和上海华普汽车有限公司共同持股，前者持有股份为55%。达孜县百瑞翔由北京百度网讯科技有限公司全资控股，上海华普汽车有限公司的控股股东为浙江吉利控股集团有限公司。见习编辑：孙晓萌","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00175":0.6,"BIDU":1,"QNETCN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387127976,"gmtCreate":1613729578195,"gmtModify":1613729578195,"author":{"id":"3569151709936534","authorId":"3569151709936534","name":"YoungYoungYo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083e65f485642c9ea702d7f88085353","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569151709936534","authorIdStr":"3569151709936534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>炒股小白问下，为什么利好会下跌","text":"$百度(BIDU)$炒股小白问下，为什么利好会下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332505930","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551259808709279","authorId":"3551259808709279","name":"Yipeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc58bf8f3b322d07a6758926774de30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3551259808709279","idStr":"3551259808709279"},"content":"之前追ark炒太高了 消息出来原来就是和吉利搞电动车 撑不住之前的泡沫 苹果都跌 说明市场不看好后起的电动车 等24年他们都出的时候特斯拉未来市值万亿了 加上传统车企市场完全饱和","text":"之前追ark炒太高了 消息出来原来就是和吉利搞电动车 撑不住之前的泡沫 苹果都跌 说明市场不看好后起的电动车 等24年他们都出的时候特斯拉未来市值万亿了 加上传统车企市场完全饱和","html":"之前追ark炒太高了 消息出来原来就是和吉利搞电动车 撑不住之前的泡沫 苹果都跌 说明市场不看好后起的电动车 等24年他们都出的时候特斯拉未来市值万亿了 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a>据小道消息，一季度财报特别好看","text":"$百度集团-SW(09888)$据小道消息，一季度财报特别好看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195701932","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190706628,"gmtCreate":1620650033564,"gmtModify":1620650033564,"author":{"id":"3569151709936534","authorId":"3569151709936534","name":"YoungYoungYo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083e65f485642c9ea702d7f88085353","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569151709936534","idStr":"3569151709936534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"30块钱太贵了吧，比出租车贵多了","listText":"30块钱太贵了吧，比出租车贵多了","text":"30块钱太贵了吧，比出租车贵多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190706628","repostId":"2134332936","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2134332936","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620630814,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2134332936?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 15:13","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Robotaxi有进账了！中国自动驾驶商业化迈出一大步","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134332936","media":"创事记","summary":"全球做Robotaxi的自动驾驶企业无数，成功迈进商业化的，百度Apollo、谷歌Waymo全球唯二。所以才有拿掉安全员，才是Robotaxi盈利、走向商业化第一步的说法。这也成了限制Robotaxi企业路测、运营的车辆总数。现在在首钢园，百度的Robotaxi车辆是和一汽红旗合作的电动SUV。同时安全性提升又会正向激励Robotaxi的市场表现。而Apollo与产业链的合作关系也与Robotaxi商业化形成正循环。此外，按照王云鹏给出的趋势估计，Robotaxi上的的自动驾驶套件每代车下降30-50%。","content":"<html><body><p>来源：量子位</p><p>5月2日，“无人”游北京正式开启。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>Apollo的Robotaxi，在北京首钢园面向公众<font>商业运营</font>，而且是驾驶位上没有人的那种：</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021510s/750/w480h270/20210510/07ee-kpuunne0037796.gif\"/></div><p>中国首个开放运营的Robotaxi，交出的成绩单如下：</p><p>五一假期间，5月2日-5日共成单848单，接待乘客1500人次，按照现场了解的30元一单，估算<font>日营收金额6360元</font>。</p><p>全球做Robotaxi的自动驾驶企业无数，成功迈进商业化的，百度Apollo、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>Waymo全球唯二。</p><p>此前听说过最多的，是Robotaxi投入巨大、入不敷出，一批创业明星最终以贱卖业务收场…</p><p>Robotaxi到底难在哪？在中国，为什么是百度能率先走通这条路？</p><p>到底好不好用？</p><p>不玩虚的，先看看百度Robotaxi在首钢园表现到底如何。</p><p>回答三个问题：谁能坐？怎么坐？贵不贵？</p><p>首先，Apollo的共享无人车向所有公众开放，谁都可以坐。</p><p>到了首钢园，只需要掏出自己的手机，下载<font>Apollo Go</font>应用，然后和其他网约车软件一样操作就可以。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/118/w1074h644/20210510/8ef2-kpuunne0037795.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>既然是商业运营，意味着要收费。</p><p><font>票价30</font>，但百度补贴40元券，这样做的目的是鼓励更多人无负担体验Robotaxi。</p><p>那么具体表现如何？</p><p>首先是识别红绿灯：</p><div><img src=\"http://f.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021510s/718/w480h238/20210510/4742-kpuunne0037929.gif\"/></div><p>对于横穿马路的行人，也能有效识别避让：</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021510s/718/w480h238/20210510/f992-kpuunne0037920.gif\"/></div><p>整个园区是开放环境，道路上不断有私家车、小巴经过，路边也经常见停着的各种目标，当然，还有<font>逆行</font>情况：</p><div><img src=\"http://f.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021510s/126/w640h286/20210510/01cc-kpuunne0038130.gif\"/></div><p><font>△</font>视频来源：汽车之心</p><p>百度共享无人车，采用的是比较谨慎保守的驾驶策略，对于突发情况，大多采取减速避让，速度也一直控制在园区限速40以内。</p><p>但Robotaxi也不是一味的慢。</p><div><img src=\"http://f.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021510s/173/w640h333/20210510/bd3a-kpuunne0038123.gif\"/></div><p><font>△</font>来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BITA\">易车</a>试车Vloger</p><p>在另一项实测中，道路上的施工车辆明显占了主车道一半的空间，但车辆并没有不知所措原地死等，而是选择暂时借用旁边的自行车道，通过施工现场。</p><p>这样看来，Apollo Robotaxi的灵活程度和实用性已经相当成熟。</p><p>体验过的人怎么说？</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021510s/750/w480h270/20210510/d657-kpuunne0038316.gif\"/></div><p>B站百万Up主@在下小苏，随机采访了了几个体验过的北京市民，得到的回应基本是感觉很平顺、比人开车稳，以及今后Robotaxi如果大规模运营，也愿意尝试。</p><p>但是“五一轻松无人游”的背后，Robotaxi这条路却丝毫无“轻松”可言，无数选手倒下或“退赛”。</p><p>Robotaxi要落地，难在哪？</p><p>简单的说：太贵，只有巨头玩得起。</p><p>Uber的自动驾驶部门，在之前的IPO进程中公开了它的月度成本账单：两千万美元。</p><p>如此估算，直到Uber解散自动驾驶部门前，可能花费了逾20亿美元。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/73/w1080h593/20210510/d09a-kpuunne0038307.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>就在几天前，北美网约车公司Lyft，也把自动驾驶业务“贱卖”给了丰田，退出Robotaxi竞赛。</p><p>谷歌Waymo即使已经开始商业化运营，但仍难以自己造血。</p><p>2020年3月份，外媒TheInformation对Waymo的状况做了一次详细调查。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/200/w1080h720/20210510/9e0e-kpuunne0038433.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>彼时，Waymo有1500多员工，车队规模600辆左右，其中在凤凰城投入商业运营的约350辆。</p><p>TheInformation给出的估算是，Waymo每年至少要花掉<font>10亿美元</font>。</p><p>其中，很大一部分开支是测试和运营车辆上的<font>安全员</font>工资。</p><p>所以才有拿掉安全员，才是Robotaxi盈利、走向商业化第一步的说法。去年10月，Waymo终于拿掉安全员。</p><p>此外，Waymo车队的车辆，也是后期改装的克莱斯勒商务车，每辆成本超过100万美元。</p><p>而根据Waymo官方报告，2019-2020年前九个月，凤凰城的商业化运营里程一共65000英里，一英里收费约2-3美元。</p><p>这样的营收远远不能覆盖成本，Waymo在里程和数据算法方面的优势，如果没有母公司Alphabet持续输血，是很难实现的。</p><p>所以Robotaxi这条路难走，在于</p><p>1）难以拿掉安全员。</p><p>2）改装车成本高</p><p>3）规模上不去，营收太少</p><p>为什么是百度？</p><p>百度的Robotaxi商业化，和Waymo有相似之处，比如都是先在单一城市推出完全开放的无人驾驶打车服务。</p><p>但除了北京，沧州、长沙、广州也全面开放Apollo Robotaxi规模化、常态化运营，已经通过优惠券等方式服务21万人次。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/38/w503h335/20210510/e244-kpuunne0038432.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>百度副总裁、自动驾驶技术部总经理<font>王云鹏</font>则透露了百度Robotaxi商业化落地的规划：未来三年落地30城，3000辆Robotaxi。</p><p>不难推断，各地体验性质的无人车服务，也会逐渐走向商业化运营。</p><p>而第一阶段3000辆的投放数量，也让百度的Robotaxi商业模式，与Waymo有了根本的不同。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/141/w583h358/20210510/3a9a-kpuunne0038513.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>王云鹏认为，Robotaxi要大规模商业部署，核心是：技术、产品、运营。</p><p>首先是技术方面。百度自动驾驶起步于2012年底，自动驾驶路测里程已经超过1000万公里，仿真里程超过10亿公里。</p><p>而在庞大的测试数据中，百度现阶段采用的是在线数据挖掘方式。将数据挖掘直接放到了车端，通过动态条件触发，根据需要采集高价值数据，这样可以大幅降低数据的存储成本和后期处理的时间和成本。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/98/w540h358/20210510/7638-kpuunne0038514.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>而数据则被用来不断磨练AI。</p><p>具体效果如何呢？</p><p>王云鹏给出了这样的数据参考：</p><p>人类司机百公里驾驶大概会有 11.7 次可以有明显感觉的急刹顿挫。</p><p>百度Apollo Robotaxi 一开始的时候，百公里刹车顿挫接近三四十次。</p><p>经过训练后，目前其 Robotaxi 车队在同样的区域内已经能做到百公里急刹不到 7 次的水平。</p><p>而国宾车队司机经过专业训练，从首都机场到国宾馆的一般不超过3脚可感知到的刹车，百公里大概是小于5次的水平。</p><p>所以百度的AI司机，已经能让普通人享受到接近国宾车的乘坐体验。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/20/w1080h540/20210510/e105-kpuunne0038697.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>Robotaxi商业化的第二点在于<font>产品</font>，就是具体的车。</p><p>从车企订购成品乘用车，自己进行后期自动驾驶改装，这样的成本，每辆超过百万很正常。</p><p>这也成了限制Robotaxi企业路测、运营的车辆总数。</p><p>所以，跟车企合作，实现自动驾驶软硬件的<font>前装量产</font>，是Robotaxi降低成本、扩展规模、可持续发展下去的必要途径。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/67/w1000h667/20210510/d131-kpuunne0038698.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>现在在首钢园，百度的Robotaxi车辆是和一汽红旗合作的电动SUV。</p><p>而王云鹏说，下一代<font>（第五代）</font>Robotaxi年内就会投放，而与上代相比，性能提升10倍，成本降低一半。</p><p>无人驾驶系统按照5年折旧，如果是35万元，每年折算下来是7万元，这个水平低于专车司机；如果能做到20万元成本，就比快车司机更低。</p><p>Robotaxi，商业化接下来怎么走？</p><p>百度走出了一条既不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，也不是Waymo的路。</p><p>首先在数地提供体验式服务。</p><p>然后在成熟的技术基础上，在首钢园通过多个终端提供完全开放的收费Robotaxi服务。</p><p>之前数个开放运营和测试的城市则借鉴首钢园的经验，逐步跨入商业化。</p><p>跑在路上的Robotaxi不断积累的数据，方便发现cornercase，更加优化算法。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/67/w1000h667/20210510/bb5a-kpuunne0038840.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>同时安全性提升又会正向激励Robotaxi的市场表现。</p><p>前装量产车允许车队规模快速扩展，这种商业-技术的正循环也就可以规模化扩张。</p><p>关键节点，百度还请来了一位“专业大咖”——原首汽约车CEO魏东加盟Apollo，直接带来成熟的商业化实操经验，负责Robotaxi的规模部署和运营。</p><p>而Apollo与产业链的合作关系也与Robotaxi商业化形成正循环。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/731/w1000h531/20210510/b41e-kpuunne0038839.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>比如与众多车企合作的L4功能量产车上市、产业链其他伙伴为Apollo方案提供硬件支持等等，都有助于降低自动驾驶方案成本。</p><p>此外，按照王云鹏给出的趋势估计，Robotaxi上的的自动驾驶套件每代车下降30-50%。</p><p>目前百度的一辆Robotaxi多少钱不得而知，但如果按早期平均水平20万美元（126万人民币）来算，到了Apollo Robotaxi的第七至八代，成本就能追平甚至低于私家车。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/248/w640h408/20210510/8124-kpuunne0039003.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>所以在车辆成本上，随着整个行业全产业链的激活，Robotaxi成本快速降低，最终达到网约车成本并不是梦。</p><p>根据法国咨询机构Yole测算，即使在早期一辆Robotaxi在20万美元造价下，满足每年跑昼夜不停跑330天，里程37万公里，而每公里收1美元左右<font>（6.4元人民币左右）</font>的话，一年能实现覆盖车辆成本。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021510s/209/w650h359/20210510/ac44-kpuunne0039000.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>Apollo实现Robotaxi的自我造血正循环，已经是清晰可实现的目标了。</p><p>这样的商业闭环是不是真正可量化？</p><p>自动驾驶成为从烧钱走向赚钱，并最终普惠大众的时代还有多久能到来？</p><p>这些都要看类似百度Apollo这样的企业今后如何部署了。</p><p>最后，来看看首钢园里的百度无人车“拉客”实况：</p><span><img src=\"http://p.ivideo.sina.com.cn/video/392/642/177/392642177_220_124.jpg\"/></span> <font> <div><font><comment></comment></font></div></font> </body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robotaxi有进账了！中国自动驾驶商业化迈出一大步</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobotaxi有进账了！中国自动驾驶商业化迈出一大步\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-10 15:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-05-10/doc-ikmyaawc4471587.shtml><strong>创事记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：量子位5月2日，“无人”游北京正式开启。百度Apollo的Robotaxi，在北京首钢园面向公众商业运营，而且是驾驶位上没有人的那种：中国首个开放运营的Robotaxi，交出的成绩单如下：五一假期间，5月2日-5日共成单848单，接待乘客1500人次，按照现场了解的30元一单，估算日营收金额6360元。全球做Robotaxi的自动驾驶企业无数，成功迈进商业化的，百度Apollo、谷歌...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-05-10/doc-ikmyaawc4471587.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad604a103d1f08cd63fd37cd303c158d","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-05-10/doc-ikmyaawc4471587.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2134332936","content_text":"来源：量子位5月2日，“无人”游北京正式开启。百度Apollo的Robotaxi，在北京首钢园面向公众商业运营，而且是驾驶位上没有人的那种：中国首个开放运营的Robotaxi，交出的成绩单如下：五一假期间，5月2日-5日共成单848单，接待乘客1500人次，按照现场了解的30元一单，估算日营收金额6360元。全球做Robotaxi的自动驾驶企业无数，成功迈进商业化的，百度Apollo、谷歌Waymo全球唯二。此前听说过最多的，是Robotaxi投入巨大、入不敷出，一批创业明星最终以贱卖业务收场…Robotaxi到底难在哪？在中国，为什么是百度能率先走通这条路？到底好不好用？不玩虚的，先看看百度Robotaxi在首钢园表现到底如何。回答三个问题：谁能坐？怎么坐？贵不贵？首先，Apollo的共享无人车向所有公众开放，谁都可以坐。到了首钢园，只需要掏出自己的手机，下载Apollo Go应用，然后和其他网约车软件一样操作就可以。既然是商业运营，意味着要收费。票价30，但百度补贴40元券，这样做的目的是鼓励更多人无负担体验Robotaxi。那么具体表现如何？首先是识别红绿灯：对于横穿马路的行人，也能有效识别避让：整个园区是开放环境，道路上不断有私家车、小巴经过，路边也经常见停着的各种目标，当然，还有逆行情况：△视频来源：汽车之心百度共享无人车，采用的是比较谨慎保守的驾驶策略，对于突发情况，大多采取减速避让，速度也一直控制在园区限速40以内。但Robotaxi也不是一味的慢。△来源：易车试车Vloger在另一项实测中，道路上的施工车辆明显占了主车道一半的空间，但车辆并没有不知所措原地死等，而是选择暂时借用旁边的自行车道，通过施工现场。这样看来，Apollo Robotaxi的灵活程度和实用性已经相当成熟。体验过的人怎么说？B站百万Up主@在下小苏，随机采访了了几个体验过的北京市民，得到的回应基本是感觉很平顺、比人开车稳，以及今后Robotaxi如果大规模运营，也愿意尝试。但是“五一轻松无人游”的背后，Robotaxi这条路却丝毫无“轻松”可言，无数选手倒下或“退赛”。Robotaxi要落地，难在哪？简单的说：太贵，只有巨头玩得起。Uber的自动驾驶部门，在之前的IPO进程中公开了它的月度成本账单：两千万美元。如此估算，直到Uber解散自动驾驶部门前，可能花费了逾20亿美元。就在几天前，北美网约车公司Lyft，也把自动驾驶业务“贱卖”给了丰田，退出Robotaxi竞赛。谷歌Waymo即使已经开始商业化运营，但仍难以自己造血。2020年3月份，外媒TheInformation对Waymo的状况做了一次详细调查。彼时，Waymo有1500多员工，车队规模600辆左右，其中在凤凰城投入商业运营的约350辆。TheInformation给出的估算是，Waymo每年至少要花掉10亿美元。其中，很大一部分开支是测试和运营车辆上的安全员工资。所以才有拿掉安全员，才是Robotaxi盈利、走向商业化第一步的说法。去年10月，Waymo终于拿掉安全员。此外，Waymo车队的车辆，也是后期改装的克莱斯勒商务车，每辆成本超过100万美元。而根据Waymo官方报告，2019-2020年前九个月，凤凰城的商业化运营里程一共65000英里，一英里收费约2-3美元。这样的营收远远不能覆盖成本，Waymo在里程和数据算法方面的优势，如果没有母公司Alphabet持续输血，是很难实现的。所以Robotaxi这条路难走，在于1）难以拿掉安全员。2）改装车成本高3）规模上不去，营收太少为什么是百度？百度的Robotaxi商业化，和Waymo有相似之处，比如都是先在单一城市推出完全开放的无人驾驶打车服务。但除了北京，沧州、长沙、广州也全面开放Apollo Robotaxi规模化、常态化运营，已经通过优惠券等方式服务21万人次。百度副总裁、自动驾驶技术部总经理王云鹏则透露了百度Robotaxi商业化落地的规划：未来三年落地30城，3000辆Robotaxi。不难推断，各地体验性质的无人车服务，也会逐渐走向商业化运营。而第一阶段3000辆的投放数量，也让百度的Robotaxi商业模式，与Waymo有了根本的不同。王云鹏认为，Robotaxi要大规模商业部署，核心是：技术、产品、运营。首先是技术方面。百度自动驾驶起步于2012年底，自动驾驶路测里程已经超过1000万公里，仿真里程超过10亿公里。而在庞大的测试数据中，百度现阶段采用的是在线数据挖掘方式。将数据挖掘直接放到了车端，通过动态条件触发，根据需要采集高价值数据，这样可以大幅降低数据的存储成本和后期处理的时间和成本。而数据则被用来不断磨练AI。具体效果如何呢？王云鹏给出了这样的数据参考：人类司机百公里驾驶大概会有 11.7 次可以有明显感觉的急刹顿挫。百度Apollo Robotaxi 一开始的时候，百公里刹车顿挫接近三四十次。经过训练后，目前其 Robotaxi 车队在同样的区域内已经能做到百公里急刹不到 7 次的水平。而国宾车队司机经过专业训练，从首都机场到国宾馆的一般不超过3脚可感知到的刹车，百公里大概是小于5次的水平。所以百度的AI司机，已经能让普通人享受到接近国宾车的乘坐体验。Robotaxi商业化的第二点在于产品，就是具体的车。从车企订购成品乘用车，自己进行后期自动驾驶改装，这样的成本，每辆超过百万很正常。这也成了限制Robotaxi企业路测、运营的车辆总数。所以，跟车企合作，实现自动驾驶软硬件的前装量产，是Robotaxi降低成本、扩展规模、可持续发展下去的必要途径。现在在首钢园，百度的Robotaxi车辆是和一汽红旗合作的电动SUV。而王云鹏说，下一代（第五代）Robotaxi年内就会投放，而与上代相比，性能提升10倍，成本降低一半。无人驾驶系统按照5年折旧，如果是35万元，每年折算下来是7万元，这个水平低于专车司机；如果能做到20万元成本，就比快车司机更低。Robotaxi，商业化接下来怎么走？百度走出了一条既不是特斯拉，也不是Waymo的路。首先在数地提供体验式服务。然后在成熟的技术基础上，在首钢园通过多个终端提供完全开放的收费Robotaxi服务。之前数个开放运营和测试的城市则借鉴首钢园的经验，逐步跨入商业化。跑在路上的Robotaxi不断积累的数据，方便发现cornercase，更加优化算法。同时安全性提升又会正向激励Robotaxi的市场表现。前装量产车允许车队规模快速扩展，这种商业-技术的正循环也就可以规模化扩张。关键节点，百度还请来了一位“专业大咖”——原首汽约车CEO魏东加盟Apollo，直接带来成熟的商业化实操经验，负责Robotaxi的规模部署和运营。而Apollo与产业链的合作关系也与Robotaxi商业化形成正循环。比如与众多车企合作的L4功能量产车上市、产业链其他伙伴为Apollo方案提供硬件支持等等，都有助于降低自动驾驶方案成本。此外，按照王云鹏给出的趋势估计，Robotaxi上的的自动驾驶套件每代车下降30-50%。目前百度的一辆Robotaxi多少钱不得而知，但如果按早期平均水平20万美元（126万人民币）来算，到了Apollo 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“女版巴菲特”凯瑟琳·伍兹（Cathrine Wood）执掌的ARK基金，于本月（2020年12月）上旬连续加仓百度(NASDAQ:BIDU)，截至12月21日持有102.2万股百度股票。在“吹哨子股东”引领下，百度月内涨幅达到37.61%（截至12月23日收盘）。 此种景象燃起了我们对百度的兴趣。诚然，更深层次的一重背景还在于：当时当下全球科技巨头生存状态深度割裂背景下，资本市场逐渐站队“硬核创新”的底层逻辑更加值得深究。 我们先从一重正在投资者群体内引发广泛讨论的现象引入本文主旨： 中国卖菜科技巨头VS美国“星际争霸”科技巨头——前者以美团、滴滴和京东等为代表，后者以特斯拉和亚马逊为代表，它们的活力与差距总让人有种窒息的感觉，区别在哪？ 是能力吗？不。 思考了很久后，我们认为首要区别在于创始人的选择。 阶段性对比看，当前商业模式创新者正纷纷因“大数据杀熟”嫌疑而被议论；而硬核技术创新者则在持续冲击全球市值最大上市公司。 如是伤害性对比下，促动我们越加认知：不管是基于公司业绩和价值提升现实考虑，还是着眼于提升社会运转效率，对科技公司来说——比收割重要1000倍的，是你的“硬核系统”。 所谓“硬核系统”至少包含： ◆远期伟大目标的牵引。 ◆交易平台向混合平台升级。 ◆流量信仰变轨为技术信仰。 如果以“硬核系统”为视角检视中国互联网科技产业，百度近期的上涨、ARK基金持续建仓就说得通了：尽管过去20年间一路争议，好在它从未失去对“硬核系统”的诉求，以至于在魔幻的2020年代，它所存在的预期差，大抵是如今中国互联网科技业界中少见的。 图1：百度日K图，来源：wind金融终端 01 最熟悉的陌生人 最熟悉的陌生人，也许是对当前百度的最恰当注解。过去10多年，以搜索为核心的现金流业务阳光普照，鲜为人讨论的是，阳光之下硬","listText":"本文基于公开资料撰写，仅作为信息交流之用，不构成任何投资建议。 “女版巴菲特”凯瑟琳·伍兹（Cathrine Wood）执掌的ARK基金，于本月（2020年12月）上旬连续加仓百度(NASDAQ:BIDU)，截至12月21日持有102.2万股百度股票。在“吹哨子股东”引领下，百度月内涨幅达到37.61%（截至12月23日收盘）。 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