wheremydogs的个人主页 - 老虎社区

wheremydogs

wheremydogs

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2023-12-09

无聊参加个实盘比赛，时不时还能奖励代金券，挺好

2024-01-02

有队招人吗？前月赛Top1成员，收益排行3%[开心] [开心] 大资金，成绩可查

2024-01-15

应该又是月第一的节奏，xdm加油

2024-07-04

加油，争取拿第[微笑] [开心] [开心] [开心]

2024-01-03

沪深绿了3年，感觉2024会开启牛市

2021-12-16

$BABA 20211217 115.0 PUT$ 纪念一下

2022-02-17

$ALB.HK 20221229 122.50 PUT$ 出手！年底再回看看！

2024-04-24

$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$ 做个T

2021-10-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@指数基金:用恒指科技ETF抄底腾讯、阿里、哔哩哔哩

2021-10-14

不错

TCL启动“旭日计划”，显示面板离真正国产化还远吗？

2024-08-26

棒

2024-08-01

涨幅应该不会太多

2024-07-08

实盘大赛还有一个月，加油

2024-07-04

冲冲冲✊✊✊✊✊，还有两个月就是结束了

2024-03-26

这个月有望第一，还有几天继续加油💪

2024-02-08

上月虽未取得月第一，但总排名上升一位，继续加油

2024-01-03

👌

美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息

2024-01-03

已阅

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-01-02

新年快乐！新的一年，股票长虹！

2023-12-09

很棒的课程

@芝士虎:第四课：如何在老虎国际APP上交易美国国债？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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做个T","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2982a35d816c94cedcaa25b4ab84840a","width":"972","height":"1630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298757190394096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288457517879608,"gmtCreate":1711434552145,"gmtModify":1711434553939,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个月有望第一，还有几天继续加油💪","listText":"这个月有望第一，还有几天继续加油💪","text":"这个月有望第一，还有几天继续加油💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288457517879608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271578981146832,"gmtCreate":1707341225584,"gmtModify":1707341227176,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上月虽未取得月第一，但总排名上升一位，继续加油","listText":"上月虽未取得月第一，但总排名上升一位，继续加油","text":"上月虽未取得月第一，但总排名上升一位，继续加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271578981146832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":263167234904240,"gmtCreate":1705281137662,"gmtModify":1705281139294,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该又是月第一的节奏，xdm加油","listText":"应该又是月第一的节奏，xdm加油","text":"应该又是月第一的节奏，xdm加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/263167234904240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3516096698306373","authorId":"3516096698306373","name":"石头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8477922e6df4928f290cca5cd50ce873","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3516096698306373","authorIdStr":"3516096698306373"},"content":"加油，冲击年度[开心][开心]","text":"加油，冲击年度[开心][开心]","html":"加油，冲击年度[开心][开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":258986982732048,"gmtCreate":1704259270129,"gmtModify":1704259271353,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/258986982732048","repostId":"2400813563","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2400813563","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1704251400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2400813563?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-03 11:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2400813563","media":"智通财经","summary":"外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着战胜通胀的胜利。美联储使用会议记录来传达信息这些协议将记录下为期两天的会议上的言论，美联储的官员们在会上发表了各自的预测。其次，市场对美联储的预测持怀疑态度。总结预计美联储将发布相对强硬的会议纪要，引发“避险”市场走势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。</p><p>外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。</p><p><strong>市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑</strong></p><p>2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着战胜通胀的胜利。</p><p>市场喜欢这个观点——但可能太过了——预计2024年将有四到五次降息，第一次将在3月份。债券收益率暴跌，股市飙升，美元处于亏损状态。投资者倾向于先开枪后思考，而且可能做得太过了。</p><p>根据债券市场的数据，利率将在3月份下调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a167d61ed15d1b8eda63b1ee0bfed85\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"386\"/></p><p>美联储官员不希望长期借贷成本下降得如此强劲、如此迅速——这可能会鼓励放贷，而不是储蓄，有可能使抑制通胀的成果付之一炬。这时会议纪要就派上用场了。</p><p><strong>美联储使用会议记录来传达信息</strong></p><p>这些协议将记录下为期两天的会议上的言论，美联储的官员们在会上发表了各自的预测。当时，政策制定者受到消费者价格指数(CPI)数据(在他们审议的第一天公布)和生产者价格指数(PPI)的影响。但并非美联储董事会的所有成员都完全一致。</p><p>由于会议纪要直到最后一刻都在修改，该纪要可能会强调官员们想要传达的信息——别着急。预计该报告将强调鹰派成员在降息前保持谨慎的愿望，并承诺在确定降息是必要的之前不会降息。</p><p>这样一个鹰派的亮点将提振美元，并使股票投资者的沮丧。它也会冷却黄金。</p><p>然而，分析师认为这种影响不会持续太久。首先，趋势强劲——投资者对软着陆的前景相当乐观，即通胀完全消失而不出现衰退。</p><p>其次，市场对美联储的预测持怀疑态度。该机构很晚才承认通货膨胀不是暂时的，也很晚才承认自己已经做得够多了，或者做得太多了。</p><p>第三点——这与第一点有关——美联储强调它依赖于数据。除非最新数据显示出通胀倾向，否则没有理由害怕鹰派的论调。</p><p><strong>总结</strong></p><p>预计美联储将发布相对强硬的会议纪要，引发“避险”市场走势。然而，这个行情不会持续太久。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-03 11:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2400813563","content_text":"美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着战胜通胀的胜利。市场喜欢这个观点——但可能太过了——预计2024年将有四到五次降息，第一次将在3月份。债券收益率暴跌，股市飙升，美元处于亏损状态。投资者倾向于先开枪后思考，而且可能做得太过了。根据债券市场的数据，利率将在3月份下调。美联储官员不希望长期借贷成本下降得如此强劲、如此迅速——这可能会鼓励放贷，而不是储蓄，有可能使抑制通胀的成果付之一炬。这时会议纪要就派上用场了。美联储使用会议记录来传达信息这些协议将记录下为期两天的会议上的言论，美联储的官员们在会上发表了各自的预测。当时，政策制定者受到消费者价格指数(CPI)数据(在他们审议的第一天公布)和生产者价格指数(PPI)的影响。但并非美联储董事会的所有成员都完全一致。由于会议纪要直到最后一刻都在修改，该纪要可能会强调官员们想要传达的信息——别着急。预计该报告将强调鹰派成员在降息前保持谨慎的愿望，并承诺在确定降息是必要的之前不会降息。这样一个鹰派的亮点将提振美元，并使股票投资者的沮丧。它也会冷却黄金。然而，分析师认为这种影响不会持续太久。首先，趋势强劲——投资者对软着陆的前景相当乐观，即通胀完全消失而不出现衰退。其次，市场对美联储的预测持怀疑态度。该机构很晚才承认通货膨胀不是暂时的，也很晚才承认自己已经做得够多了，或者做得太多了。第三点——这与第一点有关——美联储强调它依赖于数据。除非最新数据显示出通胀倾向，否则没有理由害怕鹰派的论调。总结预计美联储将发布相对强硬的会议纪要，引发“避险”市场走势。然而，这个行情不会持续太久。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258986471457040,"gmtCreate":1704259145306,"gmtModify":1704259147017,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沪深绿了3年，感觉2024会开启牛市","listText":"沪深绿了3年，感觉2024会开启牛市","text":"沪深绿了3年，感觉2024会开启牛市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/258986471457040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556673506813374","authorIdStr":"3556673506813374"},"content":"@wheremydogs ，请尽快申请","text":"@wheremydogs ，请尽快申请","html":"@wheremydogs 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老虎国际APP上交易美国国债。一、如何通过 APP 买？1、确认 老虎国际APP 是最新版本在老虎国际APP交易之前，需要确认你的手机端app已经更新到最新版本。如果没有，可能导致一些功能缺失或者无法交易。你可以在app里点击“我的”，点击“设置”，点击“关于”，点击“检查新版本”进行自动更新，也可以在<a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/help/detail/86426640?_sasdk=dMThiOTMyNDg3ZmQzYjctMGMyN2FlODc4Y2QxNGI4LTI2MDIxYjUxLTIwNzM2MDAtMThiOTMyNDg3ZmUyMDk\">老虎国际官网网站</a>自行下载更新。2、确认已开户并入金版本检查完毕之后，还需要确认你是否已经在 老虎国际APP 上完成开户操作以及你的现金账户是否已经转入可用资金。以上步骤都检查无误之后，那我们就可以开始下一步操作啦。二、在哪里找到美国国债？在老虎国际APP中有两种方式可以找到美国国债这类产品：1、搜索栏在搜索栏中输入“国债”就可以看到相关的美国国债产品。2、财富栏在“行情”界面中找到“财富”，然后点击“美国国债”，进入到国债产品详情界面。三、选择合适的美国国债在进入到国债产品界面之后，你可以看到罗列好的各类国债产品：也可以在筛选栏中对产品进行筛选：在筛选栏中，输入国债类型，选择你满意的到期收益率和票面息率，确定好产品的剩余期限。你就可以找到符合你需求的国债产品了。比如，你可以按照票面息率从高到低进行排序筛选，也可以按照到期期限进行选择。需要注意的是，如果债券即将到期，假设你购买的金额很低，可能会产生佣金高于实际收益的极端情况。因此，购买时一定要注意债券的到期时间。四、国债的详情页如何看？选","listText":"虎友，你好！第三课我们主要学了如何选择美国国债和简单的投资策略，这节课我将详细告诉你如何在 老虎国际APP上交易美国国债。一、如何通过 APP 买？1、确认 老虎国际APP 是最新版本在老虎国际APP交易之前，需要确认你的手机端app已经更新到最新版本。如果没有，可能导致一些功能缺失或者无法交易。你可以在app里点击“我的”，点击“设置”，点击“关于”，点击“检查新版本”进行自动更新，也可以在<a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/help/detail/86426640?_sasdk=dMThiOTMyNDg3ZmQzYjctMGMyN2FlODc4Y2QxNGI4LTI2MDIxYjUxLTIwNzM2MDAtMThiOTMyNDg3ZmUyMDk\">老虎国际官网网站</a>自行下载更新。2、确认已开户并入金版本检查完毕之后，还需要确认你是否已经在 老虎国际APP 上完成开户操作以及你的现金账户是否已经转入可用资金。以上步骤都检查无误之后，那我们就可以开始下一步操作啦。二、在哪里找到美国国债？在老虎国际APP中有两种方式可以找到美国国债这类产品：1、搜索栏在搜索栏中输入“国债”就可以看到相关的美国国债产品。2、财富栏在“行情”界面中找到“财富”，然后点击“美国国债”，进入到国债产品详情界面。三、选择合适的美国国债在进入到国债产品界面之后，你可以看到罗列好的各类国债产品：也可以在筛选栏中对产品进行筛选：在筛选栏中，输入国债类型，选择你满意的到期收益率和票面息率，确定好产品的剩余期限。你就可以找到符合你需求的国债产品了。比如，你可以按照票面息率从高到低进行排序筛选，也可以按照到期期限进行选择。需要注意的是，如果债券即将到期，假设你购买的金额很低，可能会产生佣金高于实际收益的极端情况。因此，购买时一定要注意债券的到期时间。四、国债的详情页如何看？选","text":"虎友，你好！第三课我们主要学了如何选择美国国债和简单的投资策略，这节课我将详细告诉你如何在 老虎国际APP上交易美国国债。一、如何通过 APP 买？1、确认 老虎国际APP 是最新版本在老虎国际APP交易之前，需要确认你的手机端app已经更新到最新版本。如果没有，可能导致一些功能缺失或者无法交易。你可以在app里点击“我的”，点击“设置”，点击“关于”，点击“检查新版本”进行自动更新，也可以在老虎国际官网网站自行下载更新。2、确认已开户并入金版本检查完毕之后，还需要确认你是否已经在 老虎国际APP 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田姗姗 | 作者 砺石商业评论 | 出品 阿里巴巴与腾讯这两家中国最优秀的互联网科技巨头企业有一个相似之处，就是它们都有着一个伟大的“2 号人物”。阿里巴巴能发展壮大，马云说他最感谢的人之一是蔡崇信。腾讯能发展壮大，马化腾也离不开一个人的鼎力相助，他就是腾讯“总裁刘炽平。 巧合的是，这两个“2号人物”有很多相似之处。二者均是美国精英教育背景、投资公司出身，且都为人低调。不过有一点不同的是，蔡崇信是阿里创始人之一，而刘炽平是后加入的职业经理人。 虽然刘炽平不是腾讯创始人，但他对于腾讯的重要意义，并不亚于其创始团队成员。自2005年加入腾讯开始，刘炽平在腾讯任职超过18年，担任执行董事16年，是腾讯中后期发展的最关键角色之一。腾讯早期投资人、高瓴资本创始人张磊曾这样评价刘炽平，“刘炽平是一个伟大的商业分析师，他知道要打什么仗”。 1 3个建议 刘炽平1973年出生于北京，6岁后随全家移居到香港。他从小就是学霸，25岁时已经获得了密歇根大学的电子工程学士学位和斯坦福大学和西北大学的两个硕士学位；30岁时已经是高盛亚洲投行部电信、媒体与科技行业组的负责人。 刘炽平第一次与腾讯接触是在2003年9月，腾讯正考虑上市。当时在高盛集团亚洲投资银行部担任执行董事的刘炽平负责争取拿下腾讯的首次公开募股工作。彼时腾讯成立5年，因QQ产品而在国内互联网产业颇具名气，靠“移动梦网”业务做到年营收7.35亿元（约合1.08亿美元），并且刚进入游戏服务领域。 在谈判和筹备上市的过程中，刘炽平提到了三点建议，给马化腾留下了深刻印象。 首先，刘炽平指出当时腾讯的收入过度依赖“移动梦网”业务，“这是一种寄人篱下的业务模式，会让投资人觉得腾讯缺乏可塑性，对未来没有信心和想象力。所以，应该在公开募股的时候，强调网络效应，","listText":"导语：高瓴资本创始人张磊曾评价刘炽平，“刘炽平是一个伟大的商业分析师，他知道要打什么仗”。 田姗姗 | 作者 砺石商业评论 | 出品 阿里巴巴与腾讯这两家中国最优秀的互联网科技巨头企业有一个相似之处，就是它们都有着一个伟大的“2 号人物”。阿里巴巴能发展壮大，马云说他最感谢的人之一是蔡崇信。腾讯能发展壮大，马化腾也离不开一个人的鼎力相助，他就是腾讯“总裁刘炽平。 巧合的是，这两个“2号人物”有很多相似之处。二者均是美国精英教育背景、投资公司出身，且都为人低调。不过有一点不同的是，蔡崇信是阿里创始人之一，而刘炽平是后加入的职业经理人。 虽然刘炽平不是腾讯创始人，但他对于腾讯的重要意义，并不亚于其创始团队成员。自2005年加入腾讯开始，刘炽平在腾讯任职超过18年，担任执行董事16年，是腾讯中后期发展的最关键角色之一。腾讯早期投资人、高瓴资本创始人张磊曾这样评价刘炽平，“刘炽平是一个伟大的商业分析师，他知道要打什么仗”。 1 3个建议 刘炽平1973年出生于北京，6岁后随全家移居到香港。他从小就是学霸，25岁时已经获得了密歇根大学的电子工程学士学位和斯坦福大学和西北大学的两个硕士学位；30岁时已经是高盛亚洲投行部电信、媒体与科技行业组的负责人。 刘炽平第一次与腾讯接触是在2003年9月，腾讯正考虑上市。当时在高盛集团亚洲投资银行部担任执行董事的刘炽平负责争取拿下腾讯的首次公开募股工作。彼时腾讯成立5年，因QQ产品而在国内互联网产业颇具名气，靠“移动梦网”业务做到年营收7.35亿元（约合1.08亿美元），并且刚进入游戏服务领域。 在谈判和筹备上市的过程中，刘炽平提到了三点建议，给马化腾留下了深刻印象。 首先，刘炽平指出当时腾讯的收入过度依赖“移动梦网”业务，“这是一种寄人篱下的业务模式，会让投资人觉得腾讯缺乏可塑性，对未来没有信心和想象力。所以，应该在公开募股的时候，强调网络效应，","text":"导语：高瓴资本创始人张磊曾评价刘炽平，“刘炽平是一个伟大的商业分析师，他知道要打什么仗”。 田姗姗 | 作者 砺石商业评论 | 出品 阿里巴巴与腾讯这两家中国最优秀的互联网科技巨头企业有一个相似之处，就是它们都有着一个伟大的“2 号人物”。阿里巴巴能发展壮大，马云说他最感谢的人之一是蔡崇信。腾讯能发展壮大，马化腾也离不开一个人的鼎力相助，他就是腾讯“总裁刘炽平。 巧合的是，这两个“2号人物”有很多相似之处。二者均是美国精英教育背景、投资公司出身，且都为人低调。不过有一点不同的是，蔡崇信是阿里创始人之一，而刘炽平是后加入的职业经理人。 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纪念一下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7415daafd13e7853d5319862f47c996c","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690651646","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638360617,"gmtCreate":1645084392249,"gmtModify":1645084392249,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ALB.HK 20221229 122.50 PUT\">$ALB.HK 20221229 122.50 PUT$&nbsp;</a>出手！年底再回看看！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ALB.HK 20221229 122.50 PUT\">$ALB.HK 20221229 122.50 PUT$&nbsp;</a>出手！年底再回看看！","text":"$ALB.HK 20221229 122.50 PUT$ 出手！年底再回看看！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c07c569c30808dacb2235e02ecb088d","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638360617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298757190394096,"gmtCreate":1713968044226,"gmtModify":1713968071193,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$</a> 做个T","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$</a> 做个T","text":"$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$ 做个T","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2982a35d816c94cedcaa25b4ab84840a","width":"972","height":"1630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298757190394096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821630727,"gmtCreate":1633738489130,"gmtModify":1633738489130,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821630727","repostId":"136315905","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":136315905,"gmtCreate":1621988760000,"gmtModify":1720941292143,"author":{"id":"3473749501366253","authorId":"3473749501366253","name":"指数基金","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473749501366253","authorIdStr":"3473749501366253"},"themes":[],"title":"用恒指科技ETF抄底腾讯、阿里、哔哩哔哩","htmlText":"香港科技类的公司经历了连续下跌，估值又便宜了。科技龙头每次下跌都是有了抄底的机会。腾讯公司的2021年第一季度报表没有超出预期，反垄断、海外业务等对腾讯公司造成了一定的冲击，但是对于拥有优秀团队的优秀科技龙头公司，面对挑战会有解决方案和解决能力的。目前，腾讯、阿里的市盈率都是26倍左右，市场给出了相对好些的价格。同样，哔哩哔哩经历了连续下跌后有了反弹的迹象。 恒指科技ETF（513180）于2021年5月25日上市，正好可以一键抄底腾讯、阿里这些恒生科技龙头公司，并且很快会配置哔哩哔哩公司。恒生科技指数（指数代码：HSTECH）是由30家最大的与科技主题高度相关的香港上市公司组成，以反映香港上市的科技或创新领域龙头公司的整体表现。指数是以2014年12月31日为基日，以3000点为基点。截至2021年5月5日，指数累计回报率是170.3%，年化收益率达17.2%。 还记得之前我们有个恒生互联网科技指数，这两者有什么区别？恒生互联指数是香港上市的资讯科技行业的上市公司构成的指数，上市成分公司不限制数量，恒指科技不仅包括了金融科技领域的公司，还包括了健康科技、芯片等领域的公司，成分股中的生态型、平台型的企业占比高，指数的成长性好，正好与恒生互联网科技指数形成了互补；目前，恒指科技ETF（513180）共有31只成分公司（下个月调成30只），持仓比较集中，恒生互联网ETF（513330）共有44只成分公司，持仓相对分散，但是前十只重仓的集中度高；恒指科技ETF单只公司权重上限是8%，恒生互联网ETF单只公司权重上限是10%，这点规则还是差别不多的。 恒指科技ETF（513180）会在每个季度调仓，如果新上市的公司符合要求也可以调入，新股在首个交易日收市的市值排名，在现有指数成分股中排名前10名，那么这家公司上市后的第10个交易日收市后纳入指数。本次的恒指公司调仓中，6月7日指数将","listText":"香港科技类的公司经历了连续下跌，估值又便宜了。科技龙头每次下跌都是有了抄底的机会。腾讯公司的2021年第一季度报表没有超出预期，反垄断、海外业务等对腾讯公司造成了一定的冲击，但是对于拥有优秀团队的优秀科技龙头公司，面对挑战会有解决方案和解决能力的。目前，腾讯、阿里的市盈率都是26倍左右，市场给出了相对好些的价格。同样，哔哩哔哩经历了连续下跌后有了反弹的迹象。 恒指科技ETF（513180）于2021年5月25日上市，正好可以一键抄底腾讯、阿里这些恒生科技龙头公司，并且很快会配置哔哩哔哩公司。恒生科技指数（指数代码：HSTECH）是由30家最大的与科技主题高度相关的香港上市公司组成，以反映香港上市的科技或创新领域龙头公司的整体表现。指数是以2014年12月31日为基日，以3000点为基点。截至2021年5月5日，指数累计回报率是170.3%，年化收益率达17.2%。 还记得之前我们有个恒生互联网科技指数，这两者有什么区别？恒生互联指数是香港上市的资讯科技行业的上市公司构成的指数，上市成分公司不限制数量，恒指科技不仅包括了金融科技领域的公司，还包括了健康科技、芯片等领域的公司，成分股中的生态型、平台型的企业占比高，指数的成长性好，正好与恒生互联网科技指数形成了互补；目前，恒指科技ETF（513180）共有31只成分公司（下个月调成30只），持仓比较集中，恒生互联网ETF（513330）共有44只成分公司，持仓相对分散，但是前十只重仓的集中度高；恒指科技ETF单只公司权重上限是8%，恒生互联网ETF单只公司权重上限是10%，这点规则还是差别不多的。 恒指科技ETF（513180）会在每个季度调仓，如果新上市的公司符合要求也可以调入，新股在首个交易日收市的市值排名，在现有指数成分股中排名前10名，那么这家公司上市后的第10个交易日收市后纳入指数。本次的恒指公司调仓中，6月7日指数将","text":"香港科技类的公司经历了连续下跌，估值又便宜了。科技龙头每次下跌都是有了抄底的机会。腾讯公司的2021年第一季度报表没有超出预期，反垄断、海外业务等对腾讯公司造成了一定的冲击，但是对于拥有优秀团队的优秀科技龙头公司，面对挑战会有解决方案和解决能力的。目前，腾讯、阿里的市盈率都是26倍左右，市场给出了相对好些的价格。同样，哔哩哔哩经历了连续下跌后有了反弹的迹象。 恒指科技ETF（513180）于2021年5月25日上市，正好可以一键抄底腾讯、阿里这些恒生科技龙头公司，并且很快会配置哔哩哔哩公司。恒生科技指数（指数代码：HSTECH）是由30家最大的与科技主题高度相关的香港上市公司组成，以反映香港上市的科技或创新领域龙头公司的整体表现。指数是以2014年12月31日为基日，以3000点为基点。截至2021年5月5日，指数累计回报率是170.3%，年化收益率达17.2%。 还记得之前我们有个恒生互联网科技指数，这两者有什么区别？恒生互联指数是香港上市的资讯科技行业的上市公司构成的指数，上市成分公司不限制数量，恒指科技不仅包括了金融科技领域的公司，还包括了健康科技、芯片等领域的公司，成分股中的生态型、平台型的企业占比高，指数的成长性好，正好与恒生互联网科技指数形成了互补；目前，恒指科技ETF（513180）共有31只成分公司（下个月调成30只），持仓比较集中，恒生互联网ETF（513330）共有44只成分公司，持仓相对分散，但是前十只重仓的集中度高；恒指科技ETF单只公司权重上限是8%，恒生互联网ETF单只公司权重上限是10%，这点规则还是差别不多的。 恒指科技ETF（513180）会在每个季度调仓，如果新上市的公司符合要求也可以调入，新股在首个交易日收市的市值排名，在现有指数成分股中排名前10名，那么这家公司上市后的第10个交易日收市后纳入指数。本次的恒指公司调仓中，6月7日指数将","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984349c5191a410b9c294b36e0a81020"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136315905","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825072439,"gmtCreate":1634183697476,"gmtModify":1634183697476,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825072439","repostId":"1191006939","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191006939","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634181499,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191006939?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"TCL启动“旭日计划”，显示面板离真正国产化还远吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191006939","media":"智能相对论","summary":"今年9月，TCL启动了超200亿的“旭日计划”。作为计划的重要部分，未来5年将针对半导体显示产业链核心环节投资超过100亿。\n十二年来，TCL已在TCL华星身上累计投入超2400亿，成为我国“面板双雄","content":"<p>今年9月，TCL启动了超200亿的“旭日计划”。作为计划的重要部分，未来5年将针对半导体显示产业链核心环节投资超过100亿。</p>\n<p>十二年来，TCL已在TCL华星身上累计投入超2400亿，成为我国“面板双雄”之一。那么，TCL华星是否已在半导体显示行业站稳脚跟？面板国产化的最后一段路好走吗？</p>\n<p><b>生产端老战场战局已定，新战场暂落下风</b></p>\n<p>半导体显示产业链中，中游生产环节的竞争激烈，我国面板生产企业经过近二十年的努力，在LCD面板市场已站稳了第一梯队，据CINNO Research数据显示,2021年上半年全球LCD TV面板出货面积为8312万㎡，其中京东方、TCL华星、惠科三家国产头部厂商占比50.9%，首次占比过半。TCL华星占比17.7%，位列全球第二。</p>\n<p>此外，TCL华星在LCD非TV屏领域也保持着领先优势，根据2021年中报显示，大尺寸非TV屏营收占比从16%提升至22%，商用交互白板出货量全球第一；中尺寸出货占比提升至23%，LTPS平板面板出货量提升至全球第一，高端电竞屏市场份额全球第二，LTPS笔电面板出货量全球第二；小尺寸方面，LTPS手机面板出货量维持全球前四。</p>\n<p><b>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>相对论》认为，以TCL华星为代表的中国面板企业在LCD面板市场的领先地位很难被撼动，主要有两方面原因：</b></p>\n<p><b>1、LCD投资门槛高，技术世代升级空间小，新进入者不再具备后发优势。</b></p>\n<p>显示面板生产环节繁琐，所需设备众多，一条10代LCD产线投资金额超400亿元，设备成本就占70%左右。</p>\n<p>10代产线之前，我国厂商通过投资高世代线获得后发优势，通过持续巨额投入以及价格战，充分挤压低世代线厂商的市场份额，从而逐步完成了超越。</p>\n<p>比如TCL华星创立至今，12年投资超2400亿，已经建成和正在建设共9条面板生产线和4座模组工厂。根据IHS Market预测，未来3年，TCL华星各产线总产能将维持在全球总产能的22%以上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fa308e0d5bc40015533fbe1902a2fa7\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了LCD新产线的高成本和我国企业的垄断地位，新入局者还将面对狭小的市场增量空间。10代产线后，TV LCD技术世代升级空间不大，而且目前LCD面板主要应用于大尺寸屏幕，市场需求稳定，据Omdia数据，自2018年以来，全球LCD TV面板出货量增速逐渐走低，维持在3%以下，未来五年很难超过5%。</p>\n<p><b>2、面板大厂逐渐退出LCD生产，产能进一步向我国集中。</b></p>\n<p>目前，面板生产主要集中于中国大陆、韩国和日本三国，韩国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和LGD在跟我国多年激烈竞争后，疲态尽显，LCD产线经营效率和净利率偏低，自2020年开始大幅关闭LCD 产线，据IHS预测，2021年起，LGD和三星LCD电视面板产能的全球占比将减少到10%以内。三星撤离LCD后，重心将转移到OLED领域，巩固自己多年来在该领域的统治地位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f793f4584f084083d5a49ba215228acb\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>中国台湾目前拥有28条LCD产线，友达和群创只有3条8代以上产线，近年难以在标准化TV面板领域与京东方和TCL华星正面抗衡，逐渐转产新兴显示产品谋求差异化竞争。日本产能相对有限，8代及以上高世代线产能仅为152K/月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">松下</a>在2019年就表示要逐步退出LCD生产。</p>\n<p>随着竞争对手的战略性撤退，产能进一步向我国龙头企业集中，全球8代以上产线共31条，TCL华星占7条。此外，随着TV面板的大屏化趋势，我国11代线对应的 65寸及以上面板产能的优势也将得到充分发挥。</p>\n<p><b>《智能相对论》看到，虽然我国在LCD面板领域的地位难以撼动，但随着OLED、miniLED等显示技术在智能手机、平板和高端TV等终端的商业化应用提速，在小屏市场蚕食着LCD的份额，老对手们在新的战场也早已排兵布阵。</b></p>\n<p>根据WitsWiew、LEDinside和中国电子信息网的统计，2020年OLED和miniLED市场规模分别达到了60亿美元和310亿美元，其中我国智能手机面板出货量OLED占44.62%，预计今年年底占比将过半。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ba1c4526785790cc161b700e85789b\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>与LCD类似，全球 OLED 产能主要集中在韩国、中国和日本三国。韩国企业在OLED领域布局较早，尤其是三星，2000年就成立了项目组，自2005年建立4.5代OLED专用生产线以来，长期占据着全球OLED面板产能的首位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cc3f55c673e9420ef488a392c0e5a1\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据CNNIO Research的统计，2021第二季度，三星AMOLED面板出货量为1.01亿片，市占率69.5%。我国面板厂商合计占24.2%。</p>\n<p>对于目前与三星在产能上的差距，随着我国企业OLED产线的加速落地投产，将会会得到一定程度缓解，<b>但《智能相对论》认为，半导体显示是资本和技术密集型产业，OLED面板的核心生产设备仍然由海外供应商主导，技术壁垒高。是我国OLED生产环节独立自主发展的一大挑战。</b></p>\n<p>OLED面板生产工艺主要分为前段阵列、中段成盒、后段模组三部分。其中，前中段所需设备技术壁垒较高，分别占产线中设备总投资额约75%和20%，供应商以美、日、韩厂商主导。后端设备技术壁垒相对较低，我国厂商参与度较高。</p>\n<p>在前段阵列工艺中，刻蚀机价值量最高，单机价值量约1500万美元。在中段成盒工序中，蒸镀机是成盒段的重要组成部分，也是最昂贵的设备，技术壁垒极高。蒸镀机制造龙头厂商日本 Cannon Tokki 年产能约十台，单机价格约1.14 亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b1743c6c3a30e3ee84c1c35d2fe07b\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>面对OLED面板生产设备上的差距，我国头部企业选择正面突破生产技术难点的同时，也寻求以新的显示技术实现弯道超车。</p>\n<p>例如，TCL华星母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000100\">TCL科技</a>2020年研发投入65.4亿元，占营收8.85%，在OLED领域的公开专利数量位列全球第四。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2054d9d0b3242380dcd40e0e333d64ac\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同时，TCL通过与旗下的JOLED合作，推进印刷OLED的量产技术研发，生产出全球首款基于印刷技术的可卷绕柔性OLED样机，突破了传统蒸镀技术的壁垒。</p>\n<p>此外，TCL在量子点领域的公开专利数量居位全球第二，寻求通过量子点技术下QLED实现对OLED的超越，</p>\n<p><b>《智能相对论》认为，虽然我国面板生产商在LCD面板上站稳了脚跟，在OLED遇到的生产工艺难题也有多种方式解决，但这仍然只是停留在生产</b>端<b>的难题，上游显示材料才是最难突破的领域。</b></p>\n<p><b>最后一段路，</b></p>\n<p><b>也是最漫长的路</b></p>\n<p>无论是哪种显示技术和生产工艺，缺少了显示材料都将是无米之炊。</p>\n<p>显示材料生产商的毛利普遍高于面板生产商，而我国显示材料国产化率低，海外巨头垄断着核心技术和产能。</p>\n<p>LCD和OLED共同需要的显示材料主要有玻璃基板、驱动 IC、偏光片、光刻胶、彩色滤光片等8种。</p>\n<p><b>玻璃基板</b>作为核心面板材料之一，直接影响着显示面板的分辨率、透光度、厚度、重量和可视角度等指标。</p>\n<p>由于面板制作过程中伴随高温高压、酸碱性变化的特殊环境，因此对玻璃基板的平整度和杂质含量都有极高要求，具有很高的技术壁垒。</p>\n<p>海外玻璃基板厂商的设备基本上都是自主研发，并对成品良率等关键技术严格保密，热端关键材料严密封锁，新进入者很难实现自主突破。</p>\n<p>根据新材料在线和智研咨询的统计，2018-2020年，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLW\">康宁</a>、日本AGC、NEG三家公司的玻璃基板市占率保持85%以上，我国约占10%的市场份额。</p>\n<p>我国玻璃基板厂商依靠人工、运输和燃动力成本低的优势，在低世代线的产能上实现了较快增长，但能够生产高世代和OLED玻璃基板的厂商较少，产能增长缓慢。</p>\n<p><b>偏光片</b>直接影响着面板的成像效果，由于是PVA膜、TAC膜、保护膜、离型膜和压敏胶等多种材料复合制成，涉及的材料多、工艺环节多，上游基膜材料也被海外企业垄断，技术壁垒同样很高。</p>\n<p>此外，下游面板生产商对于偏光片的认证周期长，要求高，一旦认证通过不会轻易更换供应商，这也加剧了偏光片行业的垄断。</p>\n<p>目前，偏光片市场主要由LG化学、住友化学、日东电工、三星SDI等日韩厂商主导，据AVC统计，2020年，4家公司市占率约79%，我国企业约占5%的份额。</p>\n<p>近年来，我国企业主要通过合资建厂和收购海外偏光片企业现有产线的方式来扩大产能，但核心技术的突破进展缓慢。</p>\n<p><b>显示驱动芯片</b>是联结处理器和显示屏的桥梁，负责驱动显示器、控制驱动电流等重要功能。</p>\n<p>芯片作为半导体产业上的“明珠”，本身就涉及庞大的产业链，硅片生产、芯片设计、晶圆加工、封测等环节都需要世界各地企业分工协作完成，其中硅片生产和晶圆加工环节对设备和工艺都有很高要求。</p>\n<p>目前显示驱动芯片制程范围较广，涵盖28nm到150nm工艺段，芯片越小，制程越先进，技术壁垒也就越高。</p>\n<p>根据Omdia和CINNO Research的数据，2020年，不同尺寸面板的显示驱动芯片市场主要被三星、Magnachip、Silicon Works和中国台湾的联咏、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIMX\">奇景光电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIX.SI\">奕力</a>科技等厂商主导，占据了超80%的市场份额，我国大陆企业总体份额不到5%。2021年，随着合肥晶合、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>的产线落地，驱动显示芯片的晶圆产能份额将提升至世界的20%。</p>\n<p>面对面板材料领域存在的问题，我国面板生产企业加速布局产业链上游。TCL于今年3月组建半导体部门，5月成立TCL<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCHP\">微芯科技</a>作为半导体业务平台，主攻半导体芯片设计、半导体功率器件等领域。此外，通过旗下TCL资本，投资了116个项目，涉及新型显示、半导体核心材料及生产设备。</p>\n<p><b>《智能相对论》认为，我国玻璃基板、偏光片和显示驱动芯片等核心显示材料面临的困境，是整个半导体产业在上游原材料共同面临的难题，企业以点带面寻求突破至关重要，但同样也离不开资本的助力。</b></p>\n<p>近年来，半导体国产替代热潮带动下，各路资本纷纷涌入。2014年我国成立国家集成电路产业投资基金，一期1400亿已完成投资，2019年成立二期，募资超2000亿，2021年进入投资阶段。在产业资本的带动下，民间投资积极涌入，据云岫资本统计，2020年民间半导体投资超1400亿，比2019年增长近4倍。</p>\n<p>政府、企业、资本以及全体国民对半导体国产化都给予了足够的重视，资本市场进入了快车道，但核心技术的突破不能浮躁，需要沉下心来在基础材料科学研究、高端生产工艺以及技术专利积累等方面长期的投入。</p>\n<p>半导体显示最后一段国产化之路，也是最艰难漫长的路，靠的是对科研长期的坚持。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>我国企业的发展历史当中，从来不缺从1到N的模式创新，也不惧怕低毛利市场里的惨烈竞争。当战火烧到产业链的上游，核心技术面对着一扇扇关闭着的大门的时候，从0到1的科学创新仍然难以绕开。</p>\n<p>未来随着半导体国产化热潮的推进，半导体显示上游将汇集更多的资金投入到研发当中，资金充裕的中国半导体将以何种路径突围，我们拭目以待。</p>","source":"lsy1572855040032","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTCL启动“旭日计划”，显示面板离真正国产化还远吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-14 11:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NzA5NjMyNQ==&mid=2247499918&idx=3&sn=032ffc4530c0ede6a06af468d065e30a&chksm=fc398c64cb4e0572eae733d0b25de69fe58d582101601e0e3570dd08aa87dd8dd463154a3e6b&scene=27#wechat_redirect><strong>智能相对论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年9月，TCL启动了超200亿的“旭日计划”。作为计划的重要部分，未来5年将针对半导体显示产业链核心环节投资超过100亿。\n十二年来，TCL已在TCL华星身上累计投入超2400亿，成为我国“面板双雄”之一。那么，TCL华星是否已在半导体显示行业站稳脚跟？面板国产化的最后一段路好走吗？\n生产端老战场战局已定，新战场暂落下风\n半导体显示产业链中，中游生产环节的竞争激烈，我国面板生产企业经过近二十年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NzA5NjMyNQ==&mid=2247499918&idx=3&sn=032ffc4530c0ede6a06af468d065e30a&chksm=fc398c64cb4e0572eae733d0b25de69fe58d582101601e0e3570dd08aa87dd8dd463154a3e6b&scene=27#wechat_redirect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a7513b9fe5300e6b43e7f8bed5e7d6e","relate_stocks":{"000100":"TCL科技","01070":"TCL电子"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NzA5NjMyNQ==&mid=2247499918&idx=3&sn=032ffc4530c0ede6a06af468d065e30a&chksm=fc398c64cb4e0572eae733d0b25de69fe58d582101601e0e3570dd08aa87dd8dd463154a3e6b&scene=27#wechat_redirect","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191006939","content_text":"今年9月，TCL启动了超200亿的“旭日计划”。作为计划的重要部分，未来5年将针对半导体显示产业链核心环节投资超过100亿。\n十二年来，TCL已在TCL华星身上累计投入超2400亿，成为我国“面板双雄”之一。那么，TCL华星是否已在半导体显示行业站稳脚跟？面板国产化的最后一段路好走吗？\n生产端老战场战局已定，新战场暂落下风\n半导体显示产业链中，中游生产环节的竞争激烈，我国面板生产企业经过近二十年的努力，在LCD面板市场已站稳了第一梯队，据CINNO Research数据显示,2021年上半年全球LCD TV面板出货面积为8312万㎡，其中京东方、TCL华星、惠科三家国产头部厂商占比50.9%，首次占比过半。TCL华星占比17.7%，位列全球第二。\n此外，TCL华星在LCD非TV屏领域也保持着领先优势，根据2021年中报显示，大尺寸非TV屏营收占比从16%提升至22%，商用交互白板出货量全球第一；中尺寸出货占比提升至23%，LTPS平板面板出货量提升至全球第一，高端电竞屏市场份额全球第二，LTPS笔电面板出货量全球第二；小尺寸方面，LTPS手机面板出货量维持全球前四。\n《智能相对论》认为，以TCL华星为代表的中国面板企业在LCD面板市场的领先地位很难被撼动，主要有两方面原因：\n1、LCD投资门槛高，技术世代升级空间小，新进入者不再具备后发优势。\n显示面板生产环节繁琐，所需设备众多，一条10代LCD产线投资金额超400亿元，设备成本就占70%左右。\n10代产线之前，我国厂商通过投资高世代线获得后发优势，通过持续巨额投入以及价格战，充分挤压低世代线厂商的市场份额，从而逐步完成了超越。\n比如TCL华星创立至今，12年投资超2400亿，已经建成和正在建设共9条面板生产线和4座模组工厂。根据IHS Market预测，未来3年，TCL华星各产线总产能将维持在全球总产能的22%以上。\n\n除了LCD新产线的高成本和我国企业的垄断地位，新入局者还将面对狭小的市场增量空间。10代产线后，TV LCD技术世代升级空间不大，而且目前LCD面板主要应用于大尺寸屏幕，市场需求稳定，据Omdia数据，自2018年以来，全球LCD TV面板出货量增速逐渐走低，维持在3%以下，未来五年很难超过5%。\n2、面板大厂逐渐退出LCD生产，产能进一步向我国集中。\n目前，面板生产主要集中于中国大陆、韩国和日本三国，韩国三星和LGD在跟我国多年激烈竞争后，疲态尽显，LCD产线经营效率和净利率偏低，自2020年开始大幅关闭LCD 产线，据IHS预测，2021年起，LGD和三星LCD电视面板产能的全球占比将减少到10%以内。三星撤离LCD后，重心将转移到OLED领域，巩固自己多年来在该领域的统治地位。\n\n中国台湾目前拥有28条LCD产线，友达和群创只有3条8代以上产线，近年难以在标准化TV面板领域与京东方和TCL华星正面抗衡，逐渐转产新兴显示产品谋求差异化竞争。日本产能相对有限，8代及以上高世代线产能仅为152K/月，松下在2019年就表示要逐步退出LCD生产。\n随着竞争对手的战略性撤退，产能进一步向我国龙头企业集中，全球8代以上产线共31条，TCL华星占7条。此外，随着TV面板的大屏化趋势，我国11代线对应的 65寸及以上面板产能的优势也将得到充分发挥。\n《智能相对论》看到，虽然我国在LCD面板领域的地位难以撼动，但随着OLED、miniLED等显示技术在智能手机、平板和高端TV等终端的商业化应用提速，在小屏市场蚕食着LCD的份额，老对手们在新的战场也早已排兵布阵。\n根据WitsWiew、LEDinside和中国电子信息网的统计，2020年OLED和miniLED市场规模分别达到了60亿美元和310亿美元，其中我国智能手机面板出货量OLED占44.62%，预计今年年底占比将过半。\n\n与LCD类似，全球 OLED 产能主要集中在韩国、中国和日本三国。韩国企业在OLED领域布局较早，尤其是三星，2000年就成立了项目组，自2005年建立4.5代OLED专用生产线以来，长期占据着全球OLED面板产能的首位。\n\n根据CNNIO Research的统计，2021第二季度，三星AMOLED面板出货量为1.01亿片，市占率69.5%。我国面板厂商合计占24.2%。\n对于目前与三星在产能上的差距，随着我国企业OLED产线的加速落地投产，将会会得到一定程度缓解，但《智能相对论》认为，半导体显示是资本和技术密集型产业，OLED面板的核心生产设备仍然由海外供应商主导，技术壁垒高。是我国OLED生产环节独立自主发展的一大挑战。\nOLED面板生产工艺主要分为前段阵列、中段成盒、后段模组三部分。其中，前中段所需设备技术壁垒较高，分别占产线中设备总投资额约75%和20%，供应商以美、日、韩厂商主导。后端设备技术壁垒相对较低，我国厂商参与度较高。\n在前段阵列工艺中，刻蚀机价值量最高，单机价值量约1500万美元。在中段成盒工序中，蒸镀机是成盒段的重要组成部分，也是最昂贵的设备，技术壁垒极高。蒸镀机制造龙头厂商日本 Cannon Tokki 年产能约十台，单机价格约1.14 亿美元。\n\n面对OLED面板生产设备上的差距，我国头部企业选择正面突破生产技术难点的同时，也寻求以新的显示技术实现弯道超车。\n例如，TCL华星母公司TCL科技2020年研发投入65.4亿元，占营收8.85%，在OLED领域的公开专利数量位列全球第四。\n\n同时，TCL通过与旗下的JOLED合作，推进印刷OLED的量产技术研发，生产出全球首款基于印刷技术的可卷绕柔性OLED样机，突破了传统蒸镀技术的壁垒。\n此外，TCL在量子点领域的公开专利数量居位全球第二，寻求通过量子点技术下QLED实现对OLED的超越，\n《智能相对论》认为，虽然我国面板生产商在LCD面板上站稳了脚跟，在OLED遇到的生产工艺难题也有多种方式解决，但这仍然只是停留在生产端的难题，上游显示材料才是最难突破的领域。\n最后一段路，\n也是最漫长的路\n无论是哪种显示技术和生产工艺，缺少了显示材料都将是无米之炊。\n显示材料生产商的毛利普遍高于面板生产商，而我国显示材料国产化率低，海外巨头垄断着核心技术和产能。\nLCD和OLED共同需要的显示材料主要有玻璃基板、驱动 IC、偏光片、光刻胶、彩色滤光片等8种。\n玻璃基板作为核心面板材料之一，直接影响着显示面板的分辨率、透光度、厚度、重量和可视角度等指标。\n由于面板制作过程中伴随高温高压、酸碱性变化的特殊环境，因此对玻璃基板的平整度和杂质含量都有极高要求，具有很高的技术壁垒。\n海外玻璃基板厂商的设备基本上都是自主研发，并对成品良率等关键技术严格保密，热端关键材料严密封锁，新进入者很难实现自主突破。\n根据新材料在线和智研咨询的统计，2018-2020年，美国康宁、日本AGC、NEG三家公司的玻璃基板市占率保持85%以上，我国约占10%的市场份额。\n我国玻璃基板厂商依靠人工、运输和燃动力成本低的优势，在低世代线的产能上实现了较快增长，但能够生产高世代和OLED玻璃基板的厂商较少，产能增长缓慢。\n偏光片直接影响着面板的成像效果，由于是PVA膜、TAC膜、保护膜、离型膜和压敏胶等多种材料复合制成，涉及的材料多、工艺环节多，上游基膜材料也被海外企业垄断，技术壁垒同样很高。\n此外，下游面板生产商对于偏光片的认证周期长，要求高，一旦认证通过不会轻易更换供应商，这也加剧了偏光片行业的垄断。\n目前，偏光片市场主要由LG化学、住友化学、日东电工、三星SDI等日韩厂商主导，据AVC统计，2020年，4家公司市占率约79%，我国企业约占5%的份额。\n近年来，我国企业主要通过合资建厂和收购海外偏光片企业现有产线的方式来扩大产能，但核心技术的突破进展缓慢。\n显示驱动芯片是联结处理器和显示屏的桥梁，负责驱动显示器、控制驱动电流等重要功能。\n芯片作为半导体产业上的“明珠”，本身就涉及庞大的产业链，硅片生产、芯片设计、晶圆加工、封测等环节都需要世界各地企业分工协作完成，其中硅片生产和晶圆加工环节对设备和工艺都有很高要求。\n目前显示驱动芯片制程范围较广，涵盖28nm到150nm工艺段，芯片越小，制程越先进，技术壁垒也就越高。\n根据Omdia和CINNO Research的数据，2020年，不同尺寸面板的显示驱动芯片市场主要被三星、Magnachip、Silicon Works和中国台湾的联咏、奇景光电、奕力科技等厂商主导，占据了超80%的市场份额，我国大陆企业总体份额不到5%。2021年，随着合肥晶合、中芯国际的产线落地，驱动显示芯片的晶圆产能份额将提升至世界的20%。\n面对面板材料领域存在的问题，我国面板生产企业加速布局产业链上游。TCL于今年3月组建半导体部门，5月成立TCL微芯科技作为半导体业务平台，主攻半导体芯片设计、半导体功率器件等领域。此外，通过旗下TCL资本，投资了116个项目，涉及新型显示、半导体核心材料及生产设备。\n《智能相对论》认为，我国玻璃基板、偏光片和显示驱动芯片等核心显示材料面临的困境，是整个半导体产业在上游原材料共同面临的难题，企业以点带面寻求突破至关重要，但同样也离不开资本的助力。\n近年来，半导体国产替代热潮带动下，各路资本纷纷涌入。2014年我国成立国家集成电路产业投资基金，一期1400亿已完成投资，2019年成立二期，募资超2000亿，2021年进入投资阶段。在产业资本的带动下，民间投资积极涌入，据云岫资本统计，2020年民间半导体投资超1400亿，比2019年增长近4倍。\n政府、企业、资本以及全体国民对半导体国产化都给予了足够的重视，资本市场进入了快车道，但核心技术的突破不能浮躁，需要沉下心来在基础材料科学研究、高端生产工艺以及技术专利积累等方面长期的投入。\n半导体显示最后一段国产化之路，也是最艰难漫长的路，靠的是对科研长期的坚持。\n结语\n我国企业的发展历史当中，从来不缺从1到N的模式创新，也不惧怕低毛利市场里的惨烈竞争。当战火烧到产业链的上游，核心技术面对着一扇扇关闭着的大门的时候，从0到1的科学创新仍然难以绕开。\n未来随着半导体国产化热潮的推进，半导体显示上游将汇集更多的资金投入到研发当中，资金充裕的中国半导体将以何种路径突围，我们拭目以待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000100":0.9,"01070":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342668473368648,"gmtCreate":1724664546884,"gmtModify":1724664548602,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"棒","listText":"棒","text":"棒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342668473368648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333619474079832,"gmtCreate":1722477593696,"gmtModify":1722477595894,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"涨幅应该不会太多","listText":"涨幅应该不会太多","text":"涨幅应该不会太多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333619474079832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325166614630648,"gmtCreate":1720415582469,"gmtModify":1720415584534,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"实盘大赛还有一个月，加油","listText":"实盘大赛还有一个月，加油","text":"实盘大赛还有一个月，加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325166614630648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323709058928752,"gmtCreate":1720052634959,"gmtModify":1720052637043,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲冲冲✊✊✊✊✊，还有两个月就是结束了","listText":"冲冲冲✊✊✊✊✊，还有两个月就是结束了","text":"冲冲冲✊✊✊✊✊，还有两个月就是结束了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323709058928752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288457517879608,"gmtCreate":1711434552145,"gmtModify":1711434553939,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个月有望第一，还有几天继续加油💪","listText":"这个月有望第一，还有几天继续加油💪","text":"这个月有望第一，还有几天继续加油💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288457517879608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271578981146832,"gmtCreate":1707341225584,"gmtModify":1707341227176,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上月虽未取得月第一，但总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11:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2400813563","media":"智通财经","summary":"外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着战胜通胀的胜利。美联储使用会议记录来传达信息这些协议将记录下为期两天的会议上的言论，美联储的官员们在会上发表了各自的预测。其次，市场对美联储的预测持怀疑态度。总结预计美联储将发布相对强硬的会议纪要，引发“避险”市场走势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。</p><p>外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。</p><p><strong>市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑</strong></p><p>2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着战胜通胀的胜利。</p><p>市场喜欢这个观点——但可能太过了——预计2024年将有四到五次降息，第一次将在3月份。债券收益率暴跌，股市飙升，美元处于亏损状态。投资者倾向于先开枪后思考，而且可能做得太过了。</p><p>根据债券市场的数据，利率将在3月份下调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a167d61ed15d1b8eda63b1ee0bfed85\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"386\"/></p><p>美联储官员不希望长期借贷成本下降得如此强劲、如此迅速——这可能会鼓励放贷，而不是储蓄，有可能使抑制通胀的成果付之一炬。这时会议纪要就派上用场了。</p><p><strong>美联储使用会议记录来传达信息</strong></p><p>这些协议将记录下为期两天的会议上的言论，美联储的官员们在会上发表了各自的预测。当时，政策制定者受到消费者价格指数(CPI)数据(在他们审议的第一天公布)和生产者价格指数(PPI)的影响。但并非美联储董事会的所有成员都完全一致。</p><p>由于会议纪要直到最后一刻都在修改，该纪要可能会强调官员们想要传达的信息——别着急。预计该报告将强调鹰派成员在降息前保持谨慎的愿望，并承诺在确定降息是必要的之前不会降息。</p><p>这样一个鹰派的亮点将提振美元，并使股票投资者的沮丧。它也会冷却黄金。</p><p>然而，分析师认为这种影响不会持续太久。首先，趋势强劲——投资者对软着陆的前景相当乐观，即通胀完全消失而不出现衰退。</p><p>其次，市场对美联储的预测持怀疑态度。该机构很晚才承认通货膨胀不是暂时的，也很晚才承认自己已经做得够多了，或者做得太多了。</p><p>第三点——这与第一点有关——美联储强调它依赖于数据。除非最新数据显示出通胀倾向，否则没有理由害怕鹰派的论调。</p><p><strong>总结</strong></p><p>预计美联储将发布相对强硬的会议纪要，引发“避险”市场走势。然而，这个行情不会持续太久。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-03 11:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2400813563","content_text":"美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着战胜通胀的胜利。市场喜欢这个观点——但可能太过了——预计2024年将有四到五次降息，第一次将在3月份。债券收益率暴跌，股市飙升，美元处于亏损状态。投资者倾向于先开枪后思考，而且可能做得太过了。根据债券市场的数据，利率将在3月份下调。美联储官员不希望长期借贷成本下降得如此强劲、如此迅速——这可能会鼓励放贷，而不是储蓄，有可能使抑制通胀的成果付之一炬。这时会议纪要就派上用场了。美联储使用会议记录来传达信息这些协议将记录下为期两天的会议上的言论，美联储的官员们在会上发表了各自的预测。当时，政策制定者受到消费者价格指数(CPI)数据(在他们审议的第一天公布)和生产者价格指数(PPI)的影响。但并非美联储董事会的所有成员都完全一致。由于会议纪要直到最后一刻都在修改，该纪要可能会强调官员们想要传达的信息——别着急。预计该报告将强调鹰派成员在降息前保持谨慎的愿望，并承诺在确定降息是必要的之前不会降息。这样一个鹰派的亮点将提振美元，并使股票投资者的沮丧。它也会冷却黄金。然而，分析师认为这种影响不会持续太久。首先，趋势强劲——投资者对软着陆的前景相当乐观，即通胀完全消失而不出现衰退。其次，市场对美联储的预测持怀疑态度。该机构很晚才承认通货膨胀不是暂时的，也很晚才承认自己已经做得够多了，或者做得太多了。第三点——这与第一点有关——美联储强调它依赖于数据。除非最新数据显示出通胀倾向，否则没有理由害怕鹰派的论调。总结预计美联储将发布相对强硬的会议纪要，引发“避险”市场走势。然而，这个行情不会持续太久。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258985416319128,"gmtCreate":1704258834451,"gmtModify":1704258835986,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已阅","listText":"已阅","text":"已阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/258985416319128","repostId":"1107228964","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":258612780712176,"gmtCreate":1704171521705,"gmtModify":1704171523167,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"新年快乐！新的一年，股票长虹！","listText":"新年快乐！新的一年，股票长虹！","text":"新年快乐！新的一年，股票长虹！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/258612780712176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":250161269964848,"gmtCreate":1702091685418,"gmtModify":1702091686824,"author":{"id":"3569360747072932","authorId":"3569360747072932","name":"wheremydogs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f488cfc59732022eab8ce72ea3cfac43","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569360747072932","authorIdStr":"3569360747072932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很棒的课程","listText":"很棒的课程","text":"很棒的课程","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250161269964848","repostId":"246679407480848","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":246679407480848,"gmtCreate":1701248541019,"gmtModify":1701253462986,"author":{"id":"4093504281887960","authorId":"4093504281887960","name":"芝士虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3a05d038882153678ee817929431fc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093504281887960","authorIdStr":"4093504281887960"},"themes":[],"title":"第四课：如何在老虎国际APP上交易美国国债？","htmlText":"虎友，你好！第三课我们主要学了如何选择美国国债和简单的投资策略，这节课我将详细告诉你如何在 老虎国际APP上交易美国国债。一、如何通过 APP 买？1、确认 老虎国际APP 是最新版本在老虎国际APP交易之前，需要确认你的手机端app已经更新到最新版本。如果没有，可能导致一些功能缺失或者无法交易。你可以在app里点击“我的”，点击“设置”，点击“关于”，点击“检查新版本”进行自动更新，也可以在<a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/help/detail/86426640?_sasdk=dMThiOTMyNDg3ZmQzYjctMGMyN2FlODc4Y2QxNGI4LTI2MDIxYjUxLTIwNzM2MDAtMThiOTMyNDg3ZmUyMDk\">老虎国际官网网站</a>自行下载更新。2、确认已开户并入金版本检查完毕之后，还需要确认你是否已经在 老虎国际APP 上完成开户操作以及你的现金账户是否已经转入可用资金。以上步骤都检查无误之后，那我们就可以开始下一步操作啦。二、在哪里找到美国国债？在老虎国际APP中有两种方式可以找到美国国债这类产品：1、搜索栏在搜索栏中输入“国债”就可以看到相关的美国国债产品。2、财富栏在“行情”界面中找到“财富”，然后点击“美国国债”，进入到国债产品详情界面。三、选择合适的美国国债在进入到国债产品界面之后，你可以看到罗列好的各类国债产品：也可以在筛选栏中对产品进行筛选：在筛选栏中，输入国债类型，选择你满意的到期收益率和票面息率，确定好产品的剩余期限。你就可以找到符合你需求的国债产品了。比如，你可以按照票面息率从高到低进行排序筛选，也可以按照到期期限进行选择。需要注意的是，如果债券即将到期，假设你购买的金额很低，可能会产生佣金高于实际收益的极端情况。因此，购买时一定要注意债券的到期时间。四、国债的详情页如何看？选","listText":"虎友，你好！第三课我们主要学了如何选择美国国债和简单的投资策略，这节课我将详细告诉你如何在 老虎国际APP上交易美国国债。一、如何通过 APP 买？1、确认 老虎国际APP 是最新版本在老虎国际APP交易之前，需要确认你的手机端app已经更新到最新版本。如果没有，可能导致一些功能缺失或者无法交易。你可以在app里点击“我的”，点击“设置”，点击“关于”，点击“检查新版本”进行自动更新，也可以在<a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/help/detail/86426640?_sasdk=dMThiOTMyNDg3ZmQzYjctMGMyN2FlODc4Y2QxNGI4LTI2MDIxYjUxLTIwNzM2MDAtMThiOTMyNDg3ZmUyMDk\">老虎国际官网网站</a>自行下载更新。2、确认已开户并入金版本检查完毕之后，还需要确认你是否已经在 老虎国际APP 上完成开户操作以及你的现金账户是否已经转入可用资金。以上步骤都检查无误之后，那我们就可以开始下一步操作啦。二、在哪里找到美国国债？在老虎国际APP中有两种方式可以找到美国国债这类产品：1、搜索栏在搜索栏中输入“国债”就可以看到相关的美国国债产品。2、财富栏在“行情”界面中找到“财富”，然后点击“美国国债”，进入到国债产品详情界面。三、选择合适的美国国债在进入到国债产品界面之后，你可以看到罗列好的各类国债产品：也可以在筛选栏中对产品进行筛选：在筛选栏中，输入国债类型，选择你满意的到期收益率和票面息率，确定好产品的剩余期限。你就可以找到符合你需求的国债产品了。比如，你可以按照票面息率从高到低进行排序筛选，也可以按照到期期限进行选择。需要注意的是，如果债券即将到期，假设你购买的金额很低，可能会产生佣金高于实际收益的极端情况。因此，购买时一定要注意债券的到期时间。四、国债的详情页如何看？选","text":"虎友，你好！第三课我们主要学了如何选择美国国债和简单的投资策略，这节课我将详细告诉你如何在 老虎国际APP上交易美国国债。一、如何通过 APP 买？1、确认 老虎国际APP 是最新版本在老虎国际APP交易之前，需要确认你的手机端app已经更新到最新版本。如果没有，可能导致一些功能缺失或者无法交易。你可以在app里点击“我的”，点击“设置”，点击“关于”，点击“检查新版本”进行自动更新，也可以在老虎国际官网网站自行下载更新。2、确认已开户并入金版本检查完毕之后，还需要确认你是否已经在 老虎国际APP 上完成开户操作以及你的现金账户是否已经转入可用资金。以上步骤都检查无误之后，那我们就可以开始下一步操作啦。二、在哪里找到美国国债？在老虎国际APP中有两种方式可以找到美国国债这类产品：1、搜索栏在搜索栏中输入“国债”就可以看到相关的美国国债产品。2、财富栏在“行情”界面中找到“财富”，然后点击“美国国债”，进入到国债产品详情界面。三、选择合适的美国国债在进入到国债产品界面之后，你可以看到罗列好的各类国债产品：也可以在筛选栏中对产品进行筛选：在筛选栏中，输入国债类型，选择你满意的到期收益率和票面息率，确定好产品的剩余期限。你就可以找到符合你需求的国债产品了。比如，你可以按照票面息率从高到低进行排序筛选，也可以按照到期期限进行选择。需要注意的是，如果债券即将到期，假设你购买的金额很低，可能会产生佣金高于实际收益的极端情况。因此，购买时一定要注意债券的到期时间。四、国债的详情页如何看？选","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e731d4b71a17d33654839b1aa477d90e","width":"1280","height":"720"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701e24f82d2fe86068c4edda170cde6e","width":"370","height":"780"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c5b7b4ec220f9bd08e4bcb793d4742e","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/246679407480848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":19,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}