小韭菜6的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小韭菜6

小韭菜6

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IP属地：福建

24关注

7粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2022-07-13

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@gugu:疫情软着陆

2022-06-14

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2022-06-04

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@Dots机构投资者社区:NaturalSpeech语音合成首次达到人类水平

2022-05-13

[开心]

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2022-02-24

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2022-02-22

666

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2022-01-26

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2022-01-01

中概2022绝对亮眼。。

2021-12-10

肉肉。。，

2021-11-24

666

@走马财经:阿里Q3深度解读：芒格看了可能流泪中国应警惕或进入下流社会

2021-11-13

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@老虎专刊:【老虎周刊】老虎社区一周十大精华文章

2021-10-20

6666

@keke006:If this empire fall, I willing go together... just hold your breath, foresee 20% return shouldn’t be problem, anytime better than current FD rate, isn’t it?$GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED(G13.SI)$

2021-09-12

帮忙点个赞呗。。。

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2021-09-08

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2021-06-16

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2021-06-13

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2021-06-12

1655652622156542631111

2021-06-11

6699415574866688445

2021-06-08

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2021-06-07

168865756665885

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基于“软着陆”再看<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600009\">$上海机场(600009)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601888\">$中国中免(601888)$</a> ，实际上就是：损失当下的效益，用更长的持股时间，获得常态化后的业务反弹和“延迟收益”。","listText":"今天看到一个新词，叫“疫情软着陆”，突然意识到这个表达非常精妙。我们的zf，比较家长制，管理层喜欢尽量对局势有所控制。软着陆的本质是“既要也要”，既要控制疫情，也要保经济，是同时追求两个相互矛盾的目标，这当然难度很大。之所以要做难度这么大的事儿，是因为两个目标都很重要。这和老妈和老婆有矛盾后，既要老妈也要老婆是一个道理。“既要也要”的政策到最后一定是一个平衡的产物，是权衡判断的动态的过程，不断妥协和寻求最优方案的过程。看懂这段，再来看我们的疫情政策，就好懂些。我是反对“阴谋论”和“利益论”，简单的直线思维的人，不适宜在股市长期生活；“阴谋论”适合饭局和茶话会。自从改革开放以来，我们管理层坚持两论，就是黑猫白猫论和摸石头过河论，也就是实践论，马列的“实践是检验真理的唯一标准”。这条路不行那么换一条，最后总能走通一条路。当然软着陆这个事儿，用于疫情，难度很大。主要是因为形势变化很快，方法跟不上变化，显得很被动。另外，疫情软着陆，属于非常态化工作，没有太多惯例可以参考和沿用。因此，即便是我们简单有效率的管理体系，对于软着陆的执行，常常很被动。 基于“软着陆”再看<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600009\">$上海机场(600009)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601888\">$中国中免(601888)$</a> 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中国应警惕或进入下流社会","htmlText":"阿里巴巴2021财年（2020年4月1日-2021年3月31日）国内电商GMV高达74940亿，接近中国2020年全年社会消费零售总额——391981亿元的20%。所以，在今天这样的背景下，脱离中国经济讨论阿里巴巴，是没有意义的，阿里已经大到足以呈现中国经济的某个横切面。换言之，当阿里的财报陷入颓势，难道仅仅是阿里的股东——譬如一季度建仓，三季度又加仓的芒格，以及持仓高达70多亿美元的高盛们需要担忧吗？笔者认为，如果阿里真的陷入困境，或许我们更应该警惕，中国是否提前陷入下流社会困境。1下流社会这个词被广泛采用，源于日本作家三浦展的畅销书《下流社会》，该书形容日本在80年代后期出现的中产阶级分崩离析的社会现状：随着经济的发展，老龄化加剧，日本出现了非常严重的两极分化倾向，越来越多的人开始形成一个极广泛的“下流社会”阶层。用作者的话来讲，这个“下流”并非指社会底层，而是指中产阶级的居下游者。他们的物质生活已经足够温饱甚至小康，但却在物质、精神等各方面失去了向上发展的动力，而甘于平庸。对人生缺乏热情，不喜欢与别人接触是下流人群的主要特征。中国经济经历了40多年高速发展，社会物质文化生活产生了质的飞跃。随着房价飞涨、就业婚恋压力与日俱增、老龄化提前到来，中国也具备了日本所谓下流社会的大部分社会条件。我们很容易看到，这几年的中国年轻人，很容易就接受了“食草男”、“宅男”等生活方式，“躺平”更成为流行词汇。日本人曾经引以为荣的一亿中流不崩瓦解，大量中流——也就是中产人群过上了下流生活。中国会不会步日本后尘，加入下流社会阵营？阿里这份令人失望的Q3财报，或许能提供一些注解。2我们先来看看中国经济的整体情况，社会消费零售情况以及实物电商行业概况。2021年Q3同比增速仅4.9%，2021年Q1-Q3的两年复合增长率分别是5.0%、5.5%、4.9%，Q3的两年复合增长率是最慢的。2020年","listText":"阿里巴巴2021财年（2020年4月1日-2021年3月31日）国内电商GMV高达74940亿，接近中国2020年全年社会消费零售总额——391981亿元的20%。所以，在今天这样的背景下，脱离中国经济讨论阿里巴巴，是没有意义的，阿里已经大到足以呈现中国经济的某个横切面。换言之，当阿里的财报陷入颓势，难道仅仅是阿里的股东——譬如一季度建仓，三季度又加仓的芒格，以及持仓高达70多亿美元的高盛们需要担忧吗？笔者认为，如果阿里真的陷入困境，或许我们更应该警惕，中国是否提前陷入下流社会困境。1下流社会这个词被广泛采用，源于日本作家三浦展的畅销书《下流社会》，该书形容日本在80年代后期出现的中产阶级分崩离析的社会现状：随着经济的发展，老龄化加剧，日本出现了非常严重的两极分化倾向，越来越多的人开始形成一个极广泛的“下流社会”阶层。用作者的话来讲，这个“下流”并非指社会底层，而是指中产阶级的居下游者。他们的物质生活已经足够温饱甚至小康，但却在物质、精神等各方面失去了向上发展的动力，而甘于平庸。对人生缺乏热情，不喜欢与别人接触是下流人群的主要特征。中国经济经历了40多年高速发展，社会物质文化生活产生了质的飞跃。随着房价飞涨、就业婚恋压力与日俱增、老龄化提前到来，中国也具备了日本所谓下流社会的大部分社会条件。我们很容易看到，这几年的中国年轻人，很容易就接受了“食草男”、“宅男”等生活方式，“躺平”更成为流行词汇。日本人曾经引以为荣的一亿中流不崩瓦解，大量中流——也就是中产人群过上了下流生活。中国会不会步日本后尘，加入下流社会阵营？阿里这份令人失望的Q3财报，或许能提供一些注解。2我们先来看看中国经济的整体情况，社会消费零售情况以及实物电商行业概况。2021年Q3同比增速仅4.9%，2021年Q1-Q3的两年复合增长率分别是5.0%、5.5%、4.9%，Q3的两年复合增长率是最慢的。2020年","text":"阿里巴巴2021财年（2020年4月1日-2021年3月31日）国内电商GMV高达74940亿，接近中国2020年全年社会消费零售总额——391981亿元的20%。所以，在今天这样的背景下，脱离中国经济讨论阿里巴巴，是没有意义的，阿里已经大到足以呈现中国经济的某个横切面。换言之，当阿里的财报陷入颓势，难道仅仅是阿里的股东——譬如一季度建仓，三季度又加仓的芒格，以及持仓高达70多亿美元的高盛们需要担忧吗？笔者认为，如果阿里真的陷入困境，或许我们更应该警惕，中国是否提前陷入下流社会困境。1下流社会这个词被广泛采用，源于日本作家三浦展的畅销书《下流社会》，该书形容日本在80年代后期出现的中产阶级分崩离析的社会现状：随着经济的发展，老龄化加剧，日本出现了非常严重的两极分化倾向，越来越多的人开始形成一个极广泛的“下流社会”阶层。用作者的话来讲，这个“下流”并非指社会底层，而是指中产阶级的居下游者。他们的物质生活已经足够温饱甚至小康，但却在物质、精神等各方面失去了向上发展的动力，而甘于平庸。对人生缺乏热情，不喜欢与别人接触是下流人群的主要特征。中国经济经历了40多年高速发展，社会物质文化生活产生了质的飞跃。随着房价飞涨、就业婚恋压力与日俱增、老龄化提前到来，中国也具备了日本所谓下流社会的大部分社会条件。我们很容易看到，这几年的中国年轻人，很容易就接受了“食草男”、“宅男”等生活方式，“躺平”更成为流行词汇。日本人曾经引以为荣的一亿中流不崩瓦解，大量中流——也就是中产人群过上了下流生活。中国会不会步日本后尘，加入下流社会阵营？阿里这份令人失望的Q3财报，或许能提供一些注解。2我们先来看看中国经济的整体情况，社会消费零售情况以及实物电商行业概况。2021年Q3同比增速仅4.9%，2021年Q1-Q3的两年复合增长率分别是5.0%、5.5%、4.9%，Q3的两年复合增长率是最慢的。2020年","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bac120e6acd98979529c510c17b0358","width":"688","height":"430"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6763e95a0ea757e10ce2b535f24ca7de","width":"688","height":"442"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b685f8a1fb2bf61e9b1401e89d37d642","width":"688","height":"445"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875830788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":21,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873901608,"gmtCreate":1636816207504,"gmtModify":1636816207504,"author":{"id":"3569390808329694","authorId":"3569390808329694","name":"小韭菜6","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f3245a28d3992209921200917b96ae","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569390808329694","authorIdStr":"3569390808329694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873901608","repostId":"873004366","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":873004366,"gmtCreate":1636786097852,"gmtModify":1744960753840,"author":{"id":"35433028694349","authorId":"35433028694349","name":"老虎专刊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/e0b93d50cf0df54ce7b1b746f78db36c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"35433028694349","authorIdStr":"35433028694349"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎周刊】老虎社区一周十大精华文章","htmlText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/870704399\" target=\"_blank\">大泡沫！为什么千亿市值Rivian和Lucid风险远大于机会</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> 美国电动车公司Rivian上市首日股价飚升53%，市值超千亿美元。它和Lucid还没怎么量产车，整个市值已经都到了几百亿美元，甚至千亿美元。现在这两家公司被各路媒体吹上了天，认为未来会和特斯拉一样，到万亿级别。那我真是要为这些朋友感到担心了。 这期我要说，为什么我不看好在新能源领域会有第二个特斯拉出现。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/847570990\" target=\"_blank\">腾讯不及预期是真的，但还能更差吗？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>Q3似乎并没有投资者期待已久的惊喜。营收同比只增长13%至1432亿元，比预期的1454亿元差一些；期内盈利400亿元，同比仅增长3%；而归属股东净利润317.5亿元，同比下降2%，不及预期的326亿元。 对不熟悉腾讯的投资者来说，惊吓着实有一些。","listText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/870704399\" target=\"_blank\">大泡沫！为什么千亿市值Rivian和Lucid风险远大于机会</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> 美国电动车公司Rivian上市首日股价飚升53%，市值超千亿美元。它和Lucid还没怎么量产车，整个市值已经都到了几百亿美元，甚至千亿美元。现在这两家公司被各路媒体吹上了天，认为未来会和特斯拉一样，到万亿级别。那我真是要为这些朋友感到担心了。 这期我要说，为什么我不看好在新能源领域会有第二个特斯拉出现。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/847570990\" target=\"_blank\">腾讯不及预期是真的，但还能更差吗？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>Q3似乎并没有投资者期待已久的惊喜。营收同比只增长13%至1432亿元，比预期的1454亿元差一些；期内盈利400亿元，同比仅增长3%；而归属股东净利润317.5亿元，同比下降2%，不及预期的326亿元。 对不熟悉腾讯的投资者来说，惊吓着实有一些。","text":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： 大泡沫！为什么千亿市值Rivian和Lucid风险远大于机会 发布者：@不二说价值 美国电动车公司Rivian上市首日股价飚升53%，市值超千亿美元。它和Lucid还没怎么量产车，整个市值已经都到了几百亿美元，甚至千亿美元。现在这两家公司被各路媒体吹上了天，认为未来会和特斯拉一样，到万亿级别。那我真是要为这些朋友感到担心了。 这期我要说，为什么我不看好在新能源领域会有第二个特斯拉出现。 腾讯不及预期是真的，但还能更差吗？ 发布者：@小虎消息 $腾讯控股(00700)$Q3似乎并没有投资者期待已久的惊喜。营收同比只增长13%至1432亿元，比预期的1454亿元差一些；期内盈利400亿元，同比仅增长3%；而归属股东净利润317.5亿元，同比下降2%，不及预期的326亿元。 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target=\"_blank\">大泡沫！为什么千亿市值Rivian和Lucid风险远大于机会</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> 美国电动车公司Rivian上市首日股价飚升53%，市值超千亿美元。它和Lucid还没怎么量产车，整个市值已经都到了几百亿美元，甚至千亿美元。现在这两家公司被各路媒体吹上了天，认为未来会和特斯拉一样，到万亿级别。那我真是要为这些朋友感到担心了。 这期我要说，为什么我不看好在新能源领域会有第二个特斯拉出现。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/847570990\" target=\"_blank\">腾讯不及预期是真的，但还能更差吗？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>Q3似乎并没有投资者期待已久的惊喜。营收同比只增长13%至1432亿元，比预期的1454亿元差一些；期内盈利400亿元，同比仅增长3%；而归属股东净利润317.5亿元，同比下降2%，不及预期的326亿元。 对不熟悉腾讯的投资者来说，惊吓着实有一些。","text":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： 大泡沫！为什么千亿市值Rivian和Lucid风险远大于机会 发布者：@不二说价值 美国电动车公司Rivian上市首日股价飚升53%，市值超千亿美元。它和Lucid还没怎么量产车，整个市值已经都到了几百亿美元，甚至千亿美元。现在这两家公司被各路媒体吹上了天，认为未来会和特斯拉一样，到万亿级别。那我真是要为这些朋友感到担心了。 这期我要说，为什么我不看好在新能源领域会有第二个特斯拉出现。 腾讯不及预期是真的，但还能更差吗？ 发布者：@小虎消息 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