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Demonbuster

Demonbuster

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2021-12-19

Alibaba ftw!

2021-11-01

Lets win!

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-19

Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜

2021-09-03

Nice

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2021-07-31

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2021-07-27

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2021-07-25

Nice

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Nice

GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：比赛远未结束</blockquote>

2021-07-24

Nice

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2021-07-24

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2021-07-21

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2021-07-21

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2021-07-20

Nice!

@真是港股圈:顺丰同城和达达能否冲出美团的围城？

2021-07-18

//@Demonbuster: Nice

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2021-07-18

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2021-07-16

Nice!

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ftw!","listText":"Alibaba ftw!","text":"Alibaba ftw!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699450075","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849113138,"gmtCreate":1635734011172,"gmtModify":1635734019383,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lets win!","listText":"Lets win!","text":"Lets win!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849113138","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850257586,"gmtCreate":1634604479308,"gmtModify":1634604479430,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","listText":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","text":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850257586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815025635,"gmtCreate":1630631446627,"gmtModify":1632469344860,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815025635","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806764683,"gmtCreate":1627694971142,"gmtModify":1633757075946,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806764683","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809656736,"gmtCreate":1627368184525,"gmtModify":1633765665775,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809656736","repostId":"1148687284","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177947280,"gmtCreate":1627178354740,"gmtModify":1633767459913,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177947280","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177945878,"gmtCreate":1627178255894,"gmtModify":1633767462093,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177945878","repostId":"1107345366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：比赛远未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>  <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>  <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>  <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站已经进行了自我改造，逐步成为一个主要的电子商务公司。</li><li>我们认为，如果管理团队能够成功执行其新的电子商务支点，该公司可能正处于拐点。</li><li>此外，鉴于 Reddit 社区不断增长的用户群及其对投资者决策过程的影响力，我们建议空头特别关注该社区。</li><li>虽然我们在游戏驿站没有立足之地，但我们认为公司的游戏还没有结束。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站（GME）在 1 月份飙升至每股 480 美元的平流层水平，其背后的投机热情已大大消退，因为该股最后一次交易价格为 178 美元，比 1 月份狂热期间的 ATH 下跌了 63%。</blockquote></p><p> While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在很大程度上同意华尔街的估值意见，即这只股票似乎被严重高估了（华尔街的平均目标价为 37.5 美元），但我们也想强调的是，我们认为目前还没有一个能够全面纳入推动公司股价的潜在因素的估值模型，因此不会大胆地向对 meme 股票感兴趣的投资者宣布远离 GME。</blockquote></p><p> We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 Marketer 在 6 月份最近的一篇文章中概述了他们认为哪些因素可能推动了 GME 等 Reddit 论坛上 meme 股票背后的潜在需求：</blockquote></p><p>   Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.  We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p><p><blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health (CLOV) 卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失减少了 4.38 亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失了超过 50 亿美元。让市场感到困惑 “迷惑”--也就是说，这只是有趣的。r/WallStreetBets 上的 Reddit 帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的喜悦而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为膨胀的股价可以让早期投资的少数幸运儿实现利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析培训的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地了解支撑 GME 业务的关键基本驱动因素，以及我们认为 Reddit 社区对 GME 等模因股票的参与和影响将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote></p><p> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p><p><blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote></p><p> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p><p><blockquote>GME 最近任命了亚马逊 (AMZN) 的两名资深高管：Matt Furlong 和 Mike Recupero 分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长 Ryan Cohen 对 GME 商业模式进行战略改造的一部分，旨在转向成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote></p><p> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但团队肯定已经迅速着手工作，建立必要的基础，逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务公司，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>瑞安·科恩 (Ryan Cohen) 还明确表示，公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其检修计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判团队，他强调：</blockquote></p><p>   You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.  However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一个大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略....我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你们根据我们的行动而不是我们的言语来评判游戏驿站。然而，正如 WedBush Securities 最近所阐述的那样，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安-科恩或公司的战略： “我认为这已经从他身上溜走了。我认为他的自尊心挡住了去路，现在他要向所有人证明（他）知道自己在做什么。如果说有什么策略，那他竟然没有告诉我们，真是令人震惊。我们五个月前就应该听说了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在 21 年第四季度和 22 年第一季度阻止收入下降的趋势（GME 对其财年的定义与其 CY 不同），这发生在新管理层到位之前很久。该公司 21 年第四季度的收入为 $2.12B，是过去 3 年的强劲季度，而 22 年第一季度的收入同比增长 25%。因此，当我们在 LTM 基础上绘制它时，我们认为在地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开端。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote>LTM EBIT 利润率趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote></p><p> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个值得关注的领域，但我们认为这是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到 LTM 趋势有所改善，因为该公司公布的 LTM 息税前利润率为 -3.5% 2022 年第一季度，而 LTM 息税前利润率为 -4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司还没有走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>债务股本比率。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM 杠杆 FCF 保证金。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股权发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率已显着改善至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股权发行之前，共筹集了1.677亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失过现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将其 LTM 杠杆自由现金流利润率提高到 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功推进，GME 看起来处于有利地位，可以利用其新的电子商务支点的战略改革。虽然我们目前对 GME 的未来路线图还不太确定，但 Reddit 社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍 Reddit 社区如何继续成为一股非常重要的力量，在他们寻求提振公司股价的过程中，甚至连 Ryan Cohen 都特意向 Reddit 社区致敬：</blockquote></p><p>   We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.  <b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p><p><blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们每天都激励我们想得更远、更努力、更长时间。<b>Reddit社区在2020年增长了25.9%</b></blockquote></p><p> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p><p><blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长。来源：eMarketer</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到 Reddit 在 2020 年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长 25.9%，Marketer 还预计 Reddit 社区在 2021 年将增长 14.4%，达到 4330 万用户。我们认为，Reddit 越来越受欢迎，这将继续维持投资者对 GME 等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2019年美国人口分布，按世代划分。数据来源：美国人口普查局</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，Reddit 无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了 Robinhood (HOOD) 等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台 2020 年的平均年龄为 31 岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，千禧一代出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对股票感兴趣，而这些股票并不是典型投资者应该持有的 “安全稳定 ”股票。从上文可以看出，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Apex Clearing 的一份报告，特斯拉（TSLA）在 21 年第一季度的千禧一代投资组合中持股最多，持股比例为 28.3%，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。AAPL 以 14.5% 的份额位居第二，而 GME 也以 5.2% 的份额位居前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机不仅仅是基本面和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子，这些例子证实了这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达 (NVDA)、AMC院线 (AMC) 等另一只模因股票、丘吉尔资本公司 (CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至 Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票归类为价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为广大投资者群体需要明白，有大量且不断增长的投资者群体，他们对基本面和估值的理解和期望肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的大相径庭。</blockquote></p><p> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，这个市场肯定比我们所知道的要大得多，也复杂得多，只是不可能用同样的基本面分析和估值方法对 GME 这样的 meme 股票进行估值，然后说它们被高估了，老实说，我们认为这个过程在 meme 股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析 Reddit 意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月 21 日，游戏驿站在美国、英国和加拿大做空后，Reddit 上个人投资者的看法（按年龄划分）。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄组的年轻投资者中。约 14% 的投资者 “相信 Reddit 是一种媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至 31%。此外，相当比例（25%）的年轻投资者也参加了 GME 机会，而 20% 的年轻投资者认为 GME 活动 “代表了市场力量的根本性转移”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定大到足以引起一般投资界的惊讶，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是前进中不可忽视的力量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>使用 Reddit 调查美国、英国和加拿大问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对 Reddit 的平均信任得分。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p><p><blockquote>即使在机构投资者中，我们也可以观察到 Reddit 的影响力越来越大，因为 27% 的机构投资者使用 Reddit 来 “调查问题”，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从 2019 年的平均得分 3.5 分明显下降到 2021 年的 2.0 分，但这一比例比前几年有了明显增加。我们认为，这表明机构投资者认为 Reddit 在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与前面显示的个人投资者相比，他们并不认为这些论坛上发生的事情对他们 “发达 ”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构投资者对 Reddit wallstreetbets 社区成员的态度。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 48% 的机构投资者认为 Redditors “可能会有短期影响力，但他们无法维持”，但 27% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇，13% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 能够组建一支军队，击败华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不奇怪地发现，这些机构投资者中有 20% 对 Redditors 的 “市场操纵 ”感到沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>所有权分解。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像 GME 这样的备忘录股票将继续在 Reddit 论坛上占据重要地位，并继续成为他们与街头抗争的 “旗舰 ”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有 GME 股票的最大份额，占总持股量的 45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当一部分（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有 GME，其中包括 GME 的最大股东：贝莱德（Blackrock），该公司拥有 GME 12.36% 的股票。虽然 GME 在 21 年第二季度的机构资本大量流出 19.3 亿美元，但其股价仍远高于 2021 年第一个交易日 17.25 美元的收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>随着时间的推移做空的流通量百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从 1 月份的 41.96% 大幅下降至 6 月底的 “仅 ”14.18%，这是 2021 年两周以来最低的记录，但价格仍在持续。</blockquote></p><p> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p><p><blockquote>除了 45.1% 的散户投资者持有 GME 股票外，瑞安-科恩（Ryan Cohen）还持有 12.13% 的股份，这使他成为 GME 股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德（Blackrock），尽管他在 12 月 20 日购买的最后一批 127.4 万股股票的价格约为 14.24 美元，如果考虑到 GME 的最新收盘价 178.85 美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在年初目睹的狂热以来，GME 已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势，支撑位在之前的 130 美元至 160 美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的买入兴趣。根据我们的价格行为分析，我们预计买家将继续强力捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有 GME 头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内进行入场。</blockquote></p><p> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p><p><blockquote>斯坦汉姆资产管理公司（Stenham Asset Management）表示，虽然我们确信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在零售社区中引起了难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote></p><p>   \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”  In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p><p><blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你在人群和散户兴趣方面的空头风险，你就是在疏忽，”我们认为，一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了 Reddit 社区日益增长的影响力： “[我们]绝对会关注 WSB 等论坛，我们正在密切关注。”在游戏驿站，我们认为这场比赛肯定还远未结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：比赛远未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 09:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>  <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>  <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>  <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站已经进行了自我改造，逐步成为一个主要的电子商务公司。</li><li>我们认为，如果管理团队能够成功执行其新的电子商务支点，该公司可能正处于拐点。</li><li>此外，鉴于 Reddit 社区不断增长的用户群及其对投资者决策过程的影响力，我们建议空头特别关注该社区。</li><li>虽然我们在游戏驿站没有立足之地，但我们认为公司的游戏还没有结束。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站（GME）在 1 月份飙升至每股 480 美元的平流层水平，其背后的投机热情已大大消退，因为该股最后一次交易价格为 178 美元，比 1 月份狂热期间的 ATH 下跌了 63%。</blockquote></p><p> While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在很大程度上同意华尔街的估值意见，即这只股票似乎被严重高估了（华尔街的平均目标价为 37.5 美元），但我们也想强调的是，我们认为目前还没有一个能够全面纳入推动公司股价的潜在因素的估值模型，因此不会大胆地向对 meme 股票感兴趣的投资者宣布远离 GME。</blockquote></p><p> We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 Marketer 在 6 月份最近的一篇文章中概述了他们认为哪些因素可能推动了 GME 等 Reddit 论坛上 meme 股票背后的潜在需求：</blockquote></p><p>   Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.  We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p><p><blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health (CLOV) 卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失减少了 4.38 亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失了超过 50 亿美元。让市场感到困惑 “迷惑”--也就是说，这只是有趣的。r/WallStreetBets 上的 Reddit 帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的喜悦而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为膨胀的股价可以让早期投资的少数幸运儿实现利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析培训的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地了解支撑 GME 业务的关键基本驱动因素，以及我们认为 Reddit 社区对 GME 等模因股票的参与和影响将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote></p><p> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p><p><blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote></p><p> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p><p><blockquote>GME 最近任命了亚马逊 (AMZN) 的两名资深高管：Matt Furlong 和 Mike Recupero 分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长 Ryan Cohen 对 GME 商业模式进行战略改造的一部分，旨在转向成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote></p><p> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但团队肯定已经迅速着手工作，建立必要的基础，逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务公司，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>瑞安·科恩 (Ryan Cohen) 还明确表示，公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其检修计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判团队，他强调：</blockquote></p><p>   You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.  However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一个大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略....我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你们根据我们的行动而不是我们的言语来评判游戏驿站。然而，正如 WedBush Securities 最近所阐述的那样，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安-科恩或公司的战略： “我认为这已经从他身上溜走了。我认为他的自尊心挡住了去路，现在他要向所有人证明（他）知道自己在做什么。如果说有什么策略，那他竟然没有告诉我们，真是令人震惊。我们五个月前就应该听说了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在 21 年第四季度和 22 年第一季度阻止收入下降的趋势（GME 对其财年的定义与其 CY 不同），这发生在新管理层到位之前很久。该公司 21 年第四季度的收入为 $2.12B，是过去 3 年的强劲季度，而 22 年第一季度的收入同比增长 25%。因此，当我们在 LTM 基础上绘制它时，我们认为在地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开端。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote>LTM EBIT 利润率趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote></p><p> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个值得关注的领域，但我们认为这是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到 LTM 趋势有所改善，因为该公司公布的 LTM 息税前利润率为 -3.5% 2022 年第一季度，而 LTM 息税前利润率为 -4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司还没有走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>债务股本比率。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM 杠杆 FCF 保证金。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股权发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率已显着改善至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股权发行之前，共筹集了1.677亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失过现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将其 LTM 杠杆自由现金流利润率提高到 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功推进，GME 看起来处于有利地位，可以利用其新的电子商务支点的战略改革。虽然我们目前对 GME 的未来路线图还不太确定，但 Reddit 社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍 Reddit 社区如何继续成为一股非常重要的力量，在他们寻求提振公司股价的过程中，甚至连 Ryan Cohen 都特意向 Reddit 社区致敬：</blockquote></p><p>   We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.  <b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p><p><blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们每天都激励我们想得更远、更努力、更长时间。<b>Reddit社区在2020年增长了25.9%</b></blockquote></p><p> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p><p><blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长。来源：eMarketer</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到 Reddit 在 2020 年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长 25.9%，Marketer 还预计 Reddit 社区在 2021 年将增长 14.4%，达到 4330 万用户。我们认为，Reddit 越来越受欢迎，这将继续维持投资者对 GME 等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2019年美国人口分布，按世代划分。数据来源：美国人口普查局</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，Reddit 无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了 Robinhood (HOOD) 等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台 2020 年的平均年龄为 31 岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，千禧一代出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对股票感兴趣，而这些股票并不是典型投资者应该持有的 “安全稳定 ”股票。从上文可以看出，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Apex Clearing 的一份报告，特斯拉（TSLA）在 21 年第一季度的千禧一代投资组合中持股最多，持股比例为 28.3%，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。AAPL 以 14.5% 的份额位居第二，而 GME 也以 5.2% 的份额位居前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机不仅仅是基本面和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子，这些例子证实了这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达 (NVDA)、AMC院线 (AMC) 等另一只模因股票、丘吉尔资本公司 (CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至 Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票归类为价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为广大投资者群体需要明白，有大量且不断增长的投资者群体，他们对基本面和估值的理解和期望肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的大相径庭。</blockquote></p><p> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，这个市场肯定比我们所知道的要大得多，也复杂得多，只是不可能用同样的基本面分析和估值方法对 GME 这样的 meme 股票进行估值，然后说它们被高估了，老实说，我们认为这个过程在 meme 股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析 Reddit 意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月 21 日，游戏驿站在美国、英国和加拿大做空后，Reddit 上个人投资者的看法（按年龄划分）。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄组的年轻投资者中。约 14% 的投资者 “相信 Reddit 是一种媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至 31%。此外，相当比例（25%）的年轻投资者也参加了 GME 机会，而 20% 的年轻投资者认为 GME 活动 “代表了市场力量的根本性转移”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定大到足以引起一般投资界的惊讶，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是前进中不可忽视的力量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>使用 Reddit 调查美国、英国和加拿大问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对 Reddit 的平均信任得分。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p><p><blockquote>即使在机构投资者中，我们也可以观察到 Reddit 的影响力越来越大，因为 27% 的机构投资者使用 Reddit 来 “调查问题”，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从 2019 年的平均得分 3.5 分明显下降到 2021 年的 2.0 分，但这一比例比前几年有了明显增加。我们认为，这表明机构投资者认为 Reddit 在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与前面显示的个人投资者相比，他们并不认为这些论坛上发生的事情对他们 “发达 ”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构投资者对 Reddit wallstreetbets 社区成员的态度。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 48% 的机构投资者认为 Redditors “可能会有短期影响力，但他们无法维持”，但 27% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇，13% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 能够组建一支军队，击败华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不奇怪地发现，这些机构投资者中有 20% 对 Redditors 的 “市场操纵 ”感到沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>所有权分解。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像 GME 这样的备忘录股票将继续在 Reddit 论坛上占据重要地位，并继续成为他们与街头抗争的 “旗舰 ”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有 GME 股票的最大份额，占总持股量的 45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当一部分（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有 GME，其中包括 GME 的最大股东：贝莱德（Blackrock），该公司拥有 GME 12.36% 的股票。虽然 GME 在 21 年第二季度的机构资本大量流出 19.3 亿美元，但其股价仍远高于 2021 年第一个交易日 17.25 美元的收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>随着时间的推移做空的流通量百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从 1 月份的 41.96% 大幅下降至 6 月底的 “仅 ”14.18%，这是 2021 年两周以来最低的记录，但价格仍在持续。</blockquote></p><p> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p><p><blockquote>除了 45.1% 的散户投资者持有 GME 股票外，瑞安-科恩（Ryan Cohen）还持有 12.13% 的股份，这使他成为 GME 股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德（Blackrock），尽管他在 12 月 20 日购买的最后一批 127.4 万股股票的价格约为 14.24 美元，如果考虑到 GME 的最新收盘价 178.85 美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在年初目睹的狂热以来，GME 已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势，支撑位在之前的 130 美元至 160 美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的买入兴趣。根据我们的价格行为分析，我们预计买家将继续强力捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有 GME 头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内进行入场。</blockquote></p><p> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p><p><blockquote>斯坦汉姆资产管理公司（Stenham Asset Management）表示，虽然我们确信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在零售社区中引起了难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote></p><p>   \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”  In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p><p><blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你在人群和散户兴趣方面的空头风险，你就是在疏忽，”我们认为，一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了 Reddit 社区日益增长的影响力： “[我们]绝对会关注 WSB 等论坛，我们正在密切关注。”在游戏驿站，我们认为这场比赛肯定还远未结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being 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作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ●&nbsp;全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ●&nbsp;顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","listText":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ●&nbsp;全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ●&nbsp;顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","text":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ● 全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ● 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ftw!","listText":"Alibaba ftw!","text":"Alibaba ftw!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699450075","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177945878,"gmtCreate":1627178255894,"gmtModify":1633767462093,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177945878","repostId":"1107345366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：比赛远未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>  <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>  <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>  <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站已经进行了自我改造，逐步成为一个主要的电子商务公司。</li><li>我们认为，如果管理团队能够成功执行其新的电子商务支点，该公司可能正处于拐点。</li><li>此外，鉴于 Reddit 社区不断增长的用户群及其对投资者决策过程的影响力，我们建议空头特别关注该社区。</li><li>虽然我们在游戏驿站没有立足之地，但我们认为公司的游戏还没有结束。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站（GME）在 1 月份飙升至每股 480 美元的平流层水平，其背后的投机热情已大大消退，因为该股最后一次交易价格为 178 美元，比 1 月份狂热期间的 ATH 下跌了 63%。</blockquote></p><p> While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在很大程度上同意华尔街的估值意见，即这只股票似乎被严重高估了（华尔街的平均目标价为 37.5 美元），但我们也想强调的是，我们认为目前还没有一个能够全面纳入推动公司股价的潜在因素的估值模型，因此不会大胆地向对 meme 股票感兴趣的投资者宣布远离 GME。</blockquote></p><p> We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 Marketer 在 6 月份最近的一篇文章中概述了他们认为哪些因素可能推动了 GME 等 Reddit 论坛上 meme 股票背后的潜在需求：</blockquote></p><p>   Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.  We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p><p><blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health (CLOV) 卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失减少了 4.38 亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失了超过 50 亿美元。让市场感到困惑 “迷惑”--也就是说，这只是有趣的。r/WallStreetBets 上的 Reddit 帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的喜悦而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为膨胀的股价可以让早期投资的少数幸运儿实现利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析培训的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地了解支撑 GME 业务的关键基本驱动因素，以及我们认为 Reddit 社区对 GME 等模因股票的参与和影响将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote></p><p> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p><p><blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote></p><p> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p><p><blockquote>GME 最近任命了亚马逊 (AMZN) 的两名资深高管：Matt Furlong 和 Mike Recupero 分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长 Ryan Cohen 对 GME 商业模式进行战略改造的一部分，旨在转向成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote></p><p> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但团队肯定已经迅速着手工作，建立必要的基础，逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务公司，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>瑞安·科恩 (Ryan Cohen) 还明确表示，公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其检修计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判团队，他强调：</blockquote></p><p>   You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.  However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一个大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略....我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你们根据我们的行动而不是我们的言语来评判游戏驿站。然而，正如 WedBush Securities 最近所阐述的那样，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安-科恩或公司的战略： “我认为这已经从他身上溜走了。我认为他的自尊心挡住了去路，现在他要向所有人证明（他）知道自己在做什么。如果说有什么策略，那他竟然没有告诉我们，真是令人震惊。我们五个月前就应该听说了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在 21 年第四季度和 22 年第一季度阻止收入下降的趋势（GME 对其财年的定义与其 CY 不同），这发生在新管理层到位之前很久。该公司 21 年第四季度的收入为 $2.12B，是过去 3 年的强劲季度，而 22 年第一季度的收入同比增长 25%。因此，当我们在 LTM 基础上绘制它时，我们认为在地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开端。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote>LTM EBIT 利润率趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote></p><p> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个值得关注的领域，但我们认为这是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到 LTM 趋势有所改善，因为该公司公布的 LTM 息税前利润率为 -3.5% 2022 年第一季度，而 LTM 息税前利润率为 -4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司还没有走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>债务股本比率。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM 杠杆 FCF 保证金。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股权发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率已显着改善至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股权发行之前，共筹集了1.677亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失过现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将其 LTM 杠杆自由现金流利润率提高到 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功推进，GME 看起来处于有利地位，可以利用其新的电子商务支点的战略改革。虽然我们目前对 GME 的未来路线图还不太确定，但 Reddit 社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍 Reddit 社区如何继续成为一股非常重要的力量，在他们寻求提振公司股价的过程中，甚至连 Ryan Cohen 都特意向 Reddit 社区致敬：</blockquote></p><p>   We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.  <b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p><p><blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们每天都激励我们想得更远、更努力、更长时间。<b>Reddit社区在2020年增长了25.9%</b></blockquote></p><p> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p><p><blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长。来源：eMarketer</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到 Reddit 在 2020 年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长 25.9%，Marketer 还预计 Reddit 社区在 2021 年将增长 14.4%，达到 4330 万用户。我们认为，Reddit 越来越受欢迎，这将继续维持投资者对 GME 等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2019年美国人口分布，按世代划分。数据来源：美国人口普查局</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，Reddit 无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了 Robinhood (HOOD) 等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台 2020 年的平均年龄为 31 岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，千禧一代出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对股票感兴趣，而这些股票并不是典型投资者应该持有的 “安全稳定 ”股票。从上文可以看出，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Apex Clearing 的一份报告，特斯拉（TSLA）在 21 年第一季度的千禧一代投资组合中持股最多，持股比例为 28.3%，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。AAPL 以 14.5% 的份额位居第二，而 GME 也以 5.2% 的份额位居前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机不仅仅是基本面和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子，这些例子证实了这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达 (NVDA)、AMC院线 (AMC) 等另一只模因股票、丘吉尔资本公司 (CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至 Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票归类为价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为广大投资者群体需要明白，有大量且不断增长的投资者群体，他们对基本面和估值的理解和期望肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的大相径庭。</blockquote></p><p> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，这个市场肯定比我们所知道的要大得多，也复杂得多，只是不可能用同样的基本面分析和估值方法对 GME 这样的 meme 股票进行估值，然后说它们被高估了，老实说，我们认为这个过程在 meme 股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析 Reddit 意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月 21 日，游戏驿站在美国、英国和加拿大做空后，Reddit 上个人投资者的看法（按年龄划分）。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄组的年轻投资者中。约 14% 的投资者 “相信 Reddit 是一种媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至 31%。此外，相当比例（25%）的年轻投资者也参加了 GME 机会，而 20% 的年轻投资者认为 GME 活动 “代表了市场力量的根本性转移”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定大到足以引起一般投资界的惊讶，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是前进中不可忽视的力量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>使用 Reddit 调查美国、英国和加拿大问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对 Reddit 的平均信任得分。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p><p><blockquote>即使在机构投资者中，我们也可以观察到 Reddit 的影响力越来越大，因为 27% 的机构投资者使用 Reddit 来 “调查问题”，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从 2019 年的平均得分 3.5 分明显下降到 2021 年的 2.0 分，但这一比例比前几年有了明显增加。我们认为，这表明机构投资者认为 Reddit 在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与前面显示的个人投资者相比，他们并不认为这些论坛上发生的事情对他们 “发达 ”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构投资者对 Reddit wallstreetbets 社区成员的态度。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 48% 的机构投资者认为 Redditors “可能会有短期影响力，但他们无法维持”，但 27% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇，13% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 能够组建一支军队，击败华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不奇怪地发现，这些机构投资者中有 20% 对 Redditors 的 “市场操纵 ”感到沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>所有权分解。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像 GME 这样的备忘录股票将继续在 Reddit 论坛上占据重要地位，并继续成为他们与街头抗争的 “旗舰 ”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有 GME 股票的最大份额，占总持股量的 45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当一部分（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有 GME，其中包括 GME 的最大股东：贝莱德（Blackrock），该公司拥有 GME 12.36% 的股票。虽然 GME 在 21 年第二季度的机构资本大量流出 19.3 亿美元，但其股价仍远高于 2021 年第一个交易日 17.25 美元的收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>随着时间的推移做空的流通量百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从 1 月份的 41.96% 大幅下降至 6 月底的 “仅 ”14.18%，这是 2021 年两周以来最低的记录，但价格仍在持续。</blockquote></p><p> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p><p><blockquote>除了 45.1% 的散户投资者持有 GME 股票外，瑞安-科恩（Ryan Cohen）还持有 12.13% 的股份，这使他成为 GME 股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德（Blackrock），尽管他在 12 月 20 日购买的最后一批 127.4 万股股票的价格约为 14.24 美元，如果考虑到 GME 的最新收盘价 178.85 美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在年初目睹的狂热以来，GME 已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势，支撑位在之前的 130 美元至 160 美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的买入兴趣。根据我们的价格行为分析，我们预计买家将继续强力捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有 GME 头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内进行入场。</blockquote></p><p> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p><p><blockquote>斯坦汉姆资产管理公司（Stenham Asset Management）表示，虽然我们确信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在零售社区中引起了难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote></p><p>   \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”  In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p><p><blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你在人群和散户兴趣方面的空头风险，你就是在疏忽，”我们认为，一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了 Reddit 社区日益增长的影响力： “[我们]绝对会关注 WSB 等论坛，我们正在密切关注。”在游戏驿站，我们认为这场比赛肯定还远未结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：比赛远未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 09:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>  <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>  <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>  <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站已经进行了自我改造，逐步成为一个主要的电子商务公司。</li><li>我们认为，如果管理团队能够成功执行其新的电子商务支点，该公司可能正处于拐点。</li><li>此外，鉴于 Reddit 社区不断增长的用户群及其对投资者决策过程的影响力，我们建议空头特别关注该社区。</li><li>虽然我们在游戏驿站没有立足之地，但我们认为公司的游戏还没有结束。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站（GME）在 1 月份飙升至每股 480 美元的平流层水平，其背后的投机热情已大大消退，因为该股最后一次交易价格为 178 美元，比 1 月份狂热期间的 ATH 下跌了 63%。</blockquote></p><p> While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在很大程度上同意华尔街的估值意见，即这只股票似乎被严重高估了（华尔街的平均目标价为 37.5 美元），但我们也想强调的是，我们认为目前还没有一个能够全面纳入推动公司股价的潜在因素的估值模型，因此不会大胆地向对 meme 股票感兴趣的投资者宣布远离 GME。</blockquote></p><p> We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 Marketer 在 6 月份最近的一篇文章中概述了他们认为哪些因素可能推动了 GME 等 Reddit 论坛上 meme 股票背后的潜在需求：</blockquote></p><p>   Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.  We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p><p><blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health (CLOV) 卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失减少了 4.38 亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失了超过 50 亿美元。让市场感到困惑 “迷惑”--也就是说，这只是有趣的。r/WallStreetBets 上的 Reddit 帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的喜悦而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为膨胀的股价可以让早期投资的少数幸运儿实现利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析培训的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地了解支撑 GME 业务的关键基本驱动因素，以及我们认为 Reddit 社区对 GME 等模因股票的参与和影响将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote></p><p> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p><p><blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote></p><p> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p><p><blockquote>GME 最近任命了亚马逊 (AMZN) 的两名资深高管：Matt Furlong 和 Mike Recupero 分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长 Ryan Cohen 对 GME 商业模式进行战略改造的一部分，旨在转向成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote></p><p> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但团队肯定已经迅速着手工作，建立必要的基础，逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务公司，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>瑞安·科恩 (Ryan Cohen) 还明确表示，公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其检修计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判团队，他强调：</blockquote></p><p>   You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.  However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一个大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略....我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你们根据我们的行动而不是我们的言语来评判游戏驿站。然而，正如 WedBush Securities 最近所阐述的那样，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安-科恩或公司的战略： “我认为这已经从他身上溜走了。我认为他的自尊心挡住了去路，现在他要向所有人证明（他）知道自己在做什么。如果说有什么策略，那他竟然没有告诉我们，真是令人震惊。我们五个月前就应该听说了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在 21 年第四季度和 22 年第一季度阻止收入下降的趋势（GME 对其财年的定义与其 CY 不同），这发生在新管理层到位之前很久。该公司 21 年第四季度的收入为 $2.12B，是过去 3 年的强劲季度，而 22 年第一季度的收入同比增长 25%。因此，当我们在 LTM 基础上绘制它时，我们认为在地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开端。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote>LTM EBIT 利润率趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote></p><p> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个值得关注的领域，但我们认为这是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到 LTM 趋势有所改善，因为该公司公布的 LTM 息税前利润率为 -3.5% 2022 年第一季度，而 LTM 息税前利润率为 -4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司还没有走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>债务股本比率。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM 杠杆 FCF 保证金。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股权发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率已显着改善至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股权发行之前，共筹集了1.677亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失过现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将其 LTM 杠杆自由现金流利润率提高到 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功推进，GME 看起来处于有利地位，可以利用其新的电子商务支点的战略改革。虽然我们目前对 GME 的未来路线图还不太确定，但 Reddit 社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍 Reddit 社区如何继续成为一股非常重要的力量，在他们寻求提振公司股价的过程中，甚至连 Ryan Cohen 都特意向 Reddit 社区致敬：</blockquote></p><p>   We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.  <b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p><p><blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们每天都激励我们想得更远、更努力、更长时间。<b>Reddit社区在2020年增长了25.9%</b></blockquote></p><p> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p><p><blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长。来源：eMarketer</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到 Reddit 在 2020 年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长 25.9%，Marketer 还预计 Reddit 社区在 2021 年将增长 14.4%，达到 4330 万用户。我们认为，Reddit 越来越受欢迎，这将继续维持投资者对 GME 等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2019年美国人口分布，按世代划分。数据来源：美国人口普查局</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，Reddit 无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了 Robinhood (HOOD) 等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台 2020 年的平均年龄为 31 岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，千禧一代出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对股票感兴趣，而这些股票并不是典型投资者应该持有的 “安全稳定 ”股票。从上文可以看出，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Apex Clearing 的一份报告，特斯拉（TSLA）在 21 年第一季度的千禧一代投资组合中持股最多，持股比例为 28.3%，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。AAPL 以 14.5% 的份额位居第二，而 GME 也以 5.2% 的份额位居前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机不仅仅是基本面和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子，这些例子证实了这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达 (NVDA)、AMC院线 (AMC) 等另一只模因股票、丘吉尔资本公司 (CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至 Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票归类为价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为广大投资者群体需要明白，有大量且不断增长的投资者群体，他们对基本面和估值的理解和期望肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的大相径庭。</blockquote></p><p> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，这个市场肯定比我们所知道的要大得多，也复杂得多，只是不可能用同样的基本面分析和估值方法对 GME 这样的 meme 股票进行估值，然后说它们被高估了，老实说，我们认为这个过程在 meme 股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析 Reddit 意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月 21 日，游戏驿站在美国、英国和加拿大做空后，Reddit 上个人投资者的看法（按年龄划分）。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄组的年轻投资者中。约 14% 的投资者 “相信 Reddit 是一种媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至 31%。此外，相当比例（25%）的年轻投资者也参加了 GME 机会，而 20% 的年轻投资者认为 GME 活动 “代表了市场力量的根本性转移”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定大到足以引起一般投资界的惊讶，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是前进中不可忽视的力量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>使用 Reddit 调查美国、英国和加拿大问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对 Reddit 的平均信任得分。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p><p><blockquote>即使在机构投资者中，我们也可以观察到 Reddit 的影响力越来越大，因为 27% 的机构投资者使用 Reddit 来 “调查问题”，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从 2019 年的平均得分 3.5 分明显下降到 2021 年的 2.0 分，但这一比例比前几年有了明显增加。我们认为，这表明机构投资者认为 Reddit 在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与前面显示的个人投资者相比，他们并不认为这些论坛上发生的事情对他们 “发达 ”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构投资者对 Reddit wallstreetbets 社区成员的态度。数据来源：布伦瑞克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 48% 的机构投资者认为 Redditors “可能会有短期影响力，但他们无法维持”，但 27% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇，13% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 能够组建一支军队，击败华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不奇怪地发现，这些机构投资者中有 20% 对 Redditors 的 “市场操纵 ”感到沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>所有权分解。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像 GME 这样的备忘录股票将继续在 Reddit 论坛上占据重要地位，并继续成为他们与街头抗争的 “旗舰 ”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有 GME 股票的最大份额，占总持股量的 45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当一部分（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有 GME，其中包括 GME 的最大股东：贝莱德（Blackrock），该公司拥有 GME 12.36% 的股票。虽然 GME 在 21 年第二季度的机构资本大量流出 19.3 亿美元，但其股价仍远高于 2021 年第一个交易日 17.25 美元的收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>随着时间的推移做空的流通量百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从 1 月份的 41.96% 大幅下降至 6 月底的 “仅 ”14.18%，这是 2021 年两周以来最低的记录，但价格仍在持续。</blockquote></p><p> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p><p><blockquote>除了 45.1% 的散户投资者持有 GME 股票外，瑞安-科恩（Ryan Cohen）还持有 12.13% 的股份，这使他成为 GME 股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德（Blackrock），尽管他在 12 月 20 日购买的最后一批 127.4 万股股票的价格约为 14.24 美元，如果考虑到 GME 的最新收盘价 178.85 美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在年初目睹的狂热以来，GME 已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势，支撑位在之前的 130 美元至 160 美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的买入兴趣。根据我们的价格行为分析，我们预计买家将继续强力捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有 GME 头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内进行入场。</blockquote></p><p> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p><p><blockquote>斯坦汉姆资产管理公司（Stenham Asset Management）表示，虽然我们确信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在零售社区中引起了难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote></p><p>   \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”  In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p><p><blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你在人群和散户兴趣方面的空头风险，你就是在疏忽，”我们认为，一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了 Reddit 社区日益增长的影响力： “[我们]绝对会关注 WSB 等论坛，我们正在密切关注。”在游戏驿站，我们认为这场比赛肯定还远未结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173922166,"gmtCreate":1626603907955,"gmtModify":1633925540908,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569724741273382","idStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173922166","repostId":"2152368129","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}