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paracule

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2021-04-05

$Cameco(CCJ)$hello lads, told you to buy tthis

2021-04-01

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$catch the bottom

2021-03-31

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$this is why you buy the f ing dip

2021-10-14

Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article

Buying The Dip Is Dead

2021-06-30

Forget crypto my Ass. boomers be boomers

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-31

$Cameco(CCJ)$a lot of UOA call buying on this tickers. Keep a watch

2021-03-21

Not a surprise

Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next

2021-04-15

Sounds about delusional

Apple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.

2021-04-12

What kind of bullshit is this? Better than bitcoin? Lol

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-05

$ON Semiconductor(ON)$I told you

2021-03-31

$ON Semiconductor(ON)$this might outperform amd stock wise.

2021-03-21

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-07

$USAK 20210521 20.0 PUT(USAK)$hehe

2021-03-21

Cause it's a shit stock

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-27

These institution Boomers are crying. Deserved

抱歉，原内容已删除

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t":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","listText":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","text":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825940469","repostId":"1111412750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>\n <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>\n <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p>\n<p>Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p>\n<p>The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p>\n<p>If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p>\n<p>The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p>\n<p>The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p>\n<p>Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p>\n<p>This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-14 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153520085,"gmtCreate":1625036488447,"gmtModify":1631889183909,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Forget crypto my Ass. boomers be boomers","listText":"Forget crypto my Ass. boomers be boomers","text":"Forget crypto my Ass. boomers be boomers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153520085","repostId":"1153621389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347131532,"gmtCreate":1618473712526,"gmtModify":1631889183911,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds about delusional","listText":"Sounds about delusional","text":"Sounds about delusional","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347131532","repostId":"1150008080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150008080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618445627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150008080?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 08:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150008080","media":"Barrons","summary":"While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons to think more gains could follow.Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani this morning repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares , while adding the stock to the firm’s Tactical Outperform list.“While the supply chain issues are real, we expect Apple will be relatively protected ","content":"<p>While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons to think more gains could follow.</p>\n<p>Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani this morning repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL), while adding the stock to the firm’s Tactical Outperform list.</p>\n<p>The analyst thinks Apple is “well-positioned to report upside to March quarter estimates,” driven by strong performance by bothiPhoneandservices, and despite ongoing component shortages.</p>\n<p>“While the supply chain issues are real, we expect Apple will be relatively protected by its status as one of the largest electronics purchasers in the world,” Daryanani writes in a research note. He points out that Foxconn, a key Apple manufacturing partner,has called out the tight supply of partsbut said it would affect less than 10% of customer orders.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, he notes thati&nbsp;Phone shipments in Chinawere up 185% in the first two months of the quarter, while the App Store saw 32% growth in the quarter. He notes that Apple had guided to some deceleration in services in the quarter after 30% growth in the December quarter, but he sees potential that the growth will be steady or better given strength in the App Store.</p>\n<p>In short, Daryanani thinks Apple is positioned to report “sizable upside” versus expectations for the March quarter, with June guidance likely to be in line with expectations or better. Long term, he thinks the company can sustain mid-to-high single-digit sales growth and low-teens earnings-per-share growth.</p>\n<p>Apple is due to report earnings on April 28. Current Street consensus calls for revenue of $77 billion and profits of 98 cents a share.</p>\n<p>Apple stock was down 1.8%, at $132.03, in recent trading. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was down&nbsp;0.4%.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 08:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-should-crush-street-estimates-for-the-march-quarter-analyst-says-51618413850?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-should-crush-street-estimates-for-the-march-quarter-analyst-says-51618413850?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-should-crush-street-estimates-for-the-march-quarter-analyst-says-51618413850?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150008080","content_text":"While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons to think more gains could follow.\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani this morning repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL), while adding the stock to the firm’s Tactical Outperform list.\nThe analyst thinks Apple is “well-positioned to report upside to March quarter estimates,” driven by strong performance by bothiPhoneandservices, and despite ongoing component shortages.\n“While the supply chain issues are real, we expect Apple will be relatively protected by its status as one of the largest electronics purchasers in the world,” Daryanani writes in a research note. He points out that Foxconn, a key Apple manufacturing partner,has called out the tight supply of partsbut said it would affect less than 10% of customer orders.\nMeanwhile, he notes thati Phone shipments in Chinawere up 185% in the first two months of the quarter, while the App Store saw 32% growth in the quarter. He notes that Apple had guided to some deceleration in services in the quarter after 30% growth in the December quarter, but he sees potential that the growth will be steady or better given strength in the App Store.\nIn short, Daryanani thinks Apple is positioned to report “sizable upside” versus expectations for the March quarter, with June guidance likely to be in line with expectations or better. Long term, he thinks the company can sustain mid-to-high single-digit sales growth and low-teens earnings-per-share growth.\nApple is due to report earnings on April 28. Current Street consensus calls for revenue of $77 billion and profits of 98 cents a share.\nApple stock was down 1.8%, at $132.03, in recent trading. The S&P 500 was down 0.4%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342870576,"gmtCreate":1618203339095,"gmtModify":1631889183914,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What kind of bullshit is this? Better than bitcoin? Lol","listText":"What kind of bullshit is this? Better than bitcoin? Lol","text":"What kind of bullshit is this? Better than bitcoin? Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342870576","repostId":"2126269058","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343540343,"gmtCreate":1617730340182,"gmtModify":1631889183918,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USAK\">$USAK 20210521 20.0 PUT(USAK)$</a>hehe","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USAK\">$USAK 20210521 20.0 PUT(USAK)$</a>hehe","text":"$USAK 20210521 20.0 PUT(USAK)$hehe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b7adc6ba94ecb9f0c3b073fa4ad5987","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343540343","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349452189,"gmtCreate":1617633990341,"gmtModify":1631884836666,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>hello lads, told you to buy tthis","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>hello lads, told you to buy tthis","text":"$Cameco(CCJ)$hello lads, told you to buy tthis","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5ce99d87dc1b00d1dfca16e669e479","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349452189","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550797821626667","authorId":"3550797821626667","name":"Winnis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b4ba6c5de9bf6cd4bbc3fbb97af00b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550797821626667","authorIdStr":"3550797821626667"},"content":"xs买这么晚还自豪个啥...... 12就买了的路过","text":"xs买这么晚还自豪个啥...... 12就买了的路过","html":"xs买这么晚还自豪个啥...... 12就买了的路过"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349456910,"gmtCreate":1617633917830,"gmtModify":1631888579480,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$ON Semiconductor(ON)$</a>I told you","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$ON Semiconductor(ON)$</a>I told you","text":"$ON Semiconductor(ON)$I told you","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/586fcf4e773f6063b8bb1dd1a5d370dc","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349456910","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357047672,"gmtCreate":1617217912696,"gmtModify":1631889183922,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>catch the bottom","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>catch the bottom","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$catch the bottom","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0905c597726e7dda43383a4b34cfba98","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357047672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357094616,"gmtCreate":1617205729935,"gmtModify":1631888579486,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$ON Semiconductor(ON)$</a>this might outperform amd stock wise.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$ON Semiconductor(ON)$</a>this might outperform amd stock wise.","text":"$ON Semiconductor(ON)$this might outperform amd stock wise.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357094616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357092348,"gmtCreate":1617205567984,"gmtModify":1631884836665,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>a lot of UOA call buying on this tickers. Keep a watch","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>a lot of UOA call buying on this tickers. Keep a watch","text":"$Cameco(CCJ)$a lot of UOA call buying on this tickers. Keep a watch","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e69cfa6b75eb2ca7eb192fedf48e95b1","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357092348","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357098593,"gmtCreate":1617205421612,"gmtModify":1631889183922,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>this is why you buy the f ing dip","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>this is why you buy the f ing dip","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$this is why you buy the f ing dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8d85dfe30b3229adea1df6db1d0290","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357098593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359944406,"gmtCreate":1616331435405,"gmtModify":1631889183925,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not a surprise","listText":"Not a surprise","text":"Not a surprise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359944406","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><blockquote>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><blockquote>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.</blockquote><p>The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><blockquote>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><blockquote>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b></blockquote><p>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><blockquote><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b></blockquote><p>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><blockquote>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...</blockquote><p>While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359944679,"gmtCreate":1616331379391,"gmtModify":1631889183930,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359944679","repostId":"1136440314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359944392,"gmtCreate":1616331356016,"gmtModify":1631889183931,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cause it's a shit stock","listText":"Cause it's a shit stock","text":"Cause it's a shit stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359944392","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":313403757,"gmtCreate":1611742523379,"gmtModify":1703752869749,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"These institution Boomers are crying. Deserved","listText":"These institution Boomers are crying. Deserved","text":"These institution Boomers are crying. Deserved","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313403757","repostId":"1112797848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":349452189,"gmtCreate":1617633990341,"gmtModify":1631884836666,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>hello lads, told you to buy tthis","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>hello lads, told you to buy tthis","text":"$Cameco(CCJ)$hello lads, told you to buy tthis","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5ce99d87dc1b00d1dfca16e669e479","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349452189","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550797821626667","authorId":"3550797821626667","name":"Winnis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b4ba6c5de9bf6cd4bbc3fbb97af00b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550797821626667","authorIdStr":"3550797821626667"},"content":"xs买这么晚还自豪个啥...... 12就买了的路过","text":"xs买这么晚还自豪个啥...... 12就买了的路过","html":"xs买这么晚还自豪个啥...... 12就买了的路过"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357047672,"gmtCreate":1617217912696,"gmtModify":1631889183922,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>catch the bottom","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>catch the bottom","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$catch the bottom","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0905c597726e7dda43383a4b34cfba98","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357047672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357098593,"gmtCreate":1617205421612,"gmtModify":1631889183922,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>this is why you buy the f ing dip","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>this is why you buy the f ing dip","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$this is why you buy the f ing dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8d85dfe30b3229adea1df6db1d0290","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357098593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":825940469,"gmtCreate":1634193928571,"gmtModify":1634194615825,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","listText":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","text":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825940469","repostId":"1111412750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>\n <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>\n <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p>\n<p>Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p>\n<p>The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p>\n<p>If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p>\n<p>The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p>\n<p>The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p>\n<p>Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p>\n<p>This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-14 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153520085,"gmtCreate":1625036488447,"gmtModify":1631889183909,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Forget crypto my Ass. boomers be boomers","listText":"Forget crypto my Ass. boomers be boomers","text":"Forget crypto my Ass. boomers be boomers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153520085","repostId":"1153621389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357092348,"gmtCreate":1617205567984,"gmtModify":1631884836665,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>a lot of UOA call buying on this tickers. Keep a watch","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco(CCJ)$</a>a lot of UOA call buying on this tickers. Keep a watch","text":"$Cameco(CCJ)$a lot of UOA call buying on this tickers. Keep a watch","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e69cfa6b75eb2ca7eb192fedf48e95b1","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357092348","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359944406,"gmtCreate":1616331435405,"gmtModify":1631889183925,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not a surprise","listText":"Not a surprise","text":"Not a surprise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359944406","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><blockquote>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><blockquote>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.</blockquote><p>The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><blockquote>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><blockquote>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b></blockquote><p>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><blockquote><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b></blockquote><p>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><blockquote>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...</blockquote><p>While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347131532,"gmtCreate":1618473712526,"gmtModify":1631889183911,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds about delusional","listText":"Sounds about delusional","text":"Sounds about delusional","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347131532","repostId":"1150008080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150008080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618445627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150008080?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 08:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150008080","media":"Barrons","summary":"While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons to think more gains could follow.Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani this morning repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares , while adding the stock to the firm’s Tactical Outperform list.“While the supply chain issues are real, we expect Apple will be relatively protected ","content":"<p>While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons to think more gains could follow.</p>\n<p>Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani this morning repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL), while adding the stock to the firm’s Tactical Outperform list.</p>\n<p>The analyst thinks Apple is “well-positioned to report upside to March quarter estimates,” driven by strong performance by bothiPhoneandservices, and despite ongoing component shortages.</p>\n<p>“While the supply chain issues are real, we expect Apple will be relatively protected by its status as one of the largest electronics purchasers in the world,” Daryanani writes in a research note. He points out that Foxconn, a key Apple manufacturing partner,has called out the tight supply of partsbut said it would affect less than 10% of customer orders.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, he notes thati&nbsp;Phone shipments in Chinawere up 185% in the first two months of the quarter, while the App Store saw 32% growth in the quarter. He notes that Apple had guided to some deceleration in services in the quarter after 30% growth in the December quarter, but he sees potential that the growth will be steady or better given strength in the App Store.</p>\n<p>In short, Daryanani thinks Apple is positioned to report “sizable upside” versus expectations for the March quarter, with June guidance likely to be in line with expectations or better. Long term, he thinks the company can sustain mid-to-high single-digit sales growth and low-teens earnings-per-share growth.</p>\n<p>Apple is due to report earnings on April 28. Current Street consensus calls for revenue of $77 billion and profits of 98 cents a share.</p>\n<p>Apple stock was down 1.8%, at $132.03, in recent trading. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was down&nbsp;0.4%.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 08:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-should-crush-street-estimates-for-the-march-quarter-analyst-says-51618413850?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-should-crush-street-estimates-for-the-march-quarter-analyst-says-51618413850?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-should-crush-street-estimates-for-the-march-quarter-analyst-says-51618413850?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150008080","content_text":"While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons to think more gains could follow.\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani this morning repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL), while adding the stock to the firm’s Tactical Outperform list.\nThe analyst thinks Apple is “well-positioned to report upside to March quarter estimates,” driven by strong performance by bothiPhoneandservices, and despite ongoing component shortages.\n“While the supply chain issues are real, we expect Apple will be relatively protected by its status as one of the largest electronics purchasers in the world,” Daryanani writes in a research note. He points out that Foxconn, a key Apple manufacturing partner,has called out the tight supply of partsbut said it would affect less than 10% of customer orders.\nMeanwhile, he notes thati Phone shipments in Chinawere up 185% in the first two months of the quarter, while the App Store saw 32% growth in the quarter. He notes that Apple had guided to some deceleration in services in the quarter after 30% growth in the December quarter, but he sees potential that the growth will be steady or better given strength in the App Store.\nIn short, Daryanani thinks Apple is positioned to report “sizable upside” versus expectations for the March quarter, with June guidance likely to be in line with expectations or better. Long term, he thinks the company can sustain mid-to-high single-digit sales growth and low-teens earnings-per-share growth.\nApple is due to report earnings on April 28. Current Street consensus calls for revenue of $77 billion and profits of 98 cents a share.\nApple stock was down 1.8%, at $132.03, in recent trading. The S&P 500 was down 0.4%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342870576,"gmtCreate":1618203339095,"gmtModify":1631889183914,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What kind of bullshit is this? Better than bitcoin? Lol","listText":"What kind of bullshit is this? Better than bitcoin? Lol","text":"What kind of bullshit is this? Better than bitcoin? Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342870576","repostId":"2126269058","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349456910,"gmtCreate":1617633917830,"gmtModify":1631888579480,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$ON Semiconductor(ON)$</a>I told you","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$ON Semiconductor(ON)$</a>I told you","text":"$ON Semiconductor(ON)$I told 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