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2021-08-04

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2021-08-01

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SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在COVID-19困境中，新加坡元将跌至1.35美元/美元</blockquote>

2021-07-12

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2021-06-29

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2021-06-29

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2021-05-26

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2021-05-23

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2021-04-25

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2021-04-11

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2021-04-10

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2021-04-05

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2021-03-29

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2021-03-28

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Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-24

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2021-03-22

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2021-03-20

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2021-03-19

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2021-03-16

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Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>

2021-02-24

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2021-02-17

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The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>

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like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":110,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807588562","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802625776,"gmtCreate":1627778288595,"gmtModify":1633756544951,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802625776","repostId":"1167653033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167653033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627706886,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167653033?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 12:48","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在COVID-19困境中，新加坡元将跌至1.35美元/美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167653033","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, accor","content":"<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案的数据，预计2021年新加坡元兑美元汇率将跌至1.35美元，2022年将进一步跌至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的2021年兑美元1.33美元和2022年兑美元1.32美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉表示：“在美联储6月16日的鹰派意外之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一致走弱，2021年剩余时间以及2022年可能会在1.35美元兑1.38美元之间的弱势区间内交易。”说。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国等主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染死灰复燃引发的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值美中贸易战的初始阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“然而，由于人口疫苗接种取得了快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应该受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制。”“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着时间的推移，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的某种程度的避险资金，从而限制了进一步贬值超出我们确定的交易范围的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长期来看，惠誉预计2022年出口强劲复苏将支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险将抵消这一风险。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案（Fitch Solutions）认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步的封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在COVID-19困境中，新加坡元将跌至1.35美元/美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在COVID-19困境中，新加坡元将跌至1.35美元/美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Singapore Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 12:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案的数据，预计2021年新加坡元兑美元汇率将跌至1.35美元，2022年将进一步跌至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的2021年兑美元1.33美元和2022年兑美元1.32美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉表示：“在美联储6月16日的鹰派意外之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一致走弱，2021年剩余时间以及2022年可能会在1.35美元兑1.38美元之间的弱势区间内交易。”说。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国等主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染死灰复燃引发的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值美中贸易战的初始阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“然而，由于人口疫苗接种取得了快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应该受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制。”“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着时间的推移，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的某种程度的避险资金，从而限制了进一步贬值超出我们确定的交易范围的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长期来看，惠誉预计2022年出口强劲复苏将支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险将抵消这一风险。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案（Fitch Solutions）认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步的封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch\">Singapore Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167653033","content_text":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.\nThis is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.\n“The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.\nThis is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.\nThe SGD also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.\n“However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”\nFor the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.\nFitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further 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Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375626045","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346492406,"gmtCreate":1618099480305,"gmtModify":1634294944872,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349167159","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352449097,"gmtCreate":1616997929519,"gmtModify":1634523223269,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP to him","listText":"RIP to him","text":"RIP to him","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352449097","repostId":"2123338992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352331047,"gmtCreate":1616891443089,"gmtModify":1634523661781,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like this comment pls","listText":"Like this comment pls","text":"Like this comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352331047","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351017187,"gmtCreate":1616545749249,"gmtModify":1634525294010,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like this post pls","listText":"Like this post pls","text":"Like this post 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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327705771","repostId":"1161359915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325309566,"gmtCreate":1615861114655,"gmtModify":1703494114836,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325309566","repostId":"2119094972","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119094972","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615860566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119094972?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 10:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119094972","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but ","content":"<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经不祥之兆”，但通往电气化未来的旅程长度仍然是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，华尔街和硅谷向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在转向电动汽车。电动汽车（EV）价格下降、供应量增加；提供更便宜、更耐用、充电更快的电池的技术突破的潜力；电动汽车基础设施的进步以及在美国和其他地方扎根的“绿色友好”政府举措显示了可能的道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域已迅速发展成为一个结合工业、科技和交通的子行业，中国是电动汽车制造商的基础市场和电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据CB Insights和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020年公共和私营电动汽车公司的投资总额至少为280亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>Blue Horizon Capital合伙人约翰·米切尔(John Mitchell)表示：“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，已经不祥之兆。”</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在世界上的几个国家，人们将在短短十年或二十年内不再被允许购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到“向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc.&nbsp;attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终显示出持续盈利后，于2020年加入了标普500指数。蔚来公司（NIO，-1.25%）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯最近表示：“电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。”他说，最近的疲软是短期的“成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机到电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到届时占市场份额的三分之二。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管已经有数十亿美元用于电动汽车相关投资，但仍需要更多资金来为这一转变提供资金。B.of A.Securities最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车“革命”贴上了价格标签，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个“巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉融资与其汽车制造能力之间的关系推断，B.of A.分析师计算出，向100%电动汽车世界的转变将需要来自公司、投资者和政府超过2.5万亿美元的投资。世界各地。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，电动汽车和相关公司最近通过SPAC或“空白支票”公司筹集的资金“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣增强引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管Joyce Chang和其他人告诉观众，他们没有看到“广泛的股市泡沫”，但市场的“某些部分”正在经历“高速增长，例如电动汽车和可再生能源。”</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司以及自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶汽车相关公司的资金和关注是否会类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，或者类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，还有待观察。早期的事情对燃料电池公司的关注，其中几家公司——20年后——仍未恢复到当时创下的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒观众，电动汽车、可再生能源和“创新”股票在整个股市中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的2%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Blue Horizon的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术改进不断提高，这预示着未来的良好前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球范围内投资数万亿美元，广泛采用和使用电动汽车技术的基础设施只会增加。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师预测，到2030年，全球汽车制造商来自电动汽车的收入将从目前的1820亿美元增至1.16万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机汽车的收入目前为1.77万亿美元，将减少至1.07万亿美元。到2030年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA的加勒特·纳尔逊(Garrett Nelson)在一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在了很长时间，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比所有其他年份的总和还要多。最近的笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，2021年的活动有望“大幅”超过去年，一些最大的SPAC交易可能再次出现在“新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊说，一些突然出现的公司“更像是商业计划，而不是产生收入或利润的业务”，但有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which&nbsp;plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV&nbsp;and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>这位CFRA分析师特别指出，Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过SPAC与Churchill Capital Corp.IV合并上市）以及私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s&nbsp;MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉每辆电动汽车的成本优势约为1,000至2,000美元。大众汽车公司的MEB平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的构建模块，已经与特斯拉“完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是自动驾驶汽车，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的组件所产生的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自治是一个顽固且解决起来成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标很高，但当今道路上的大多数汽车都提供了先进的驾驶员辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统没有太大区别，而且距离它们在不久的将来有望改变生活和经济的游戏规则还很远。遥远的未来。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要专注于可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和ADAS产品，电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面领先。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“电动汽车只是一种更好的产品，”蓝色地平线的米切尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 10:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经不祥之兆”，但通往电气化未来的旅程长度仍然是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，华尔街和硅谷向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在转向电动汽车。电动汽车（EV）价格下降、供应量增加；提供更便宜、更耐用、充电更快的电池的技术突破的潜力；电动汽车基础设施的进步以及在美国和其他地方扎根的“绿色友好”政府举措显示了可能的道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域已迅速发展成为一个结合工业、科技和交通的子行业，中国是电动汽车制造商的基础市场和电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据CB Insights和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020年公共和私营电动汽车公司的投资总额至少为280亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>Blue Horizon Capital合伙人约翰·米切尔(John Mitchell)表示：“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，已经不祥之兆。”</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在世界上的几个国家，人们将在短短十年或二十年内不再被允许购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到“向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc.&nbsp;attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终显示出持续盈利后，于2020年加入了标普500指数。蔚来公司（NIO，-1.25%）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯最近表示：“电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。”他说，最近的疲软是短期的“成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机到电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到届时占市场份额的三分之二。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管已经有数十亿美元用于电动汽车相关投资，但仍需要更多资金来为这一转变提供资金。B.of A.Securities最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车“革命”贴上了价格标签，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个“巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉融资与其汽车制造能力之间的关系推断，B.of A.分析师计算出，向100%电动汽车世界的转变将需要来自公司、投资者和政府超过2.5万亿美元的投资。世界各地。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，电动汽车和相关公司最近通过SPAC或“空白支票”公司筹集的资金“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣增强引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管Joyce Chang和其他人告诉观众，他们没有看到“广泛的股市泡沫”，但市场的“某些部分”正在经历“高速增长，例如电动汽车和可再生能源。”</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司以及自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶汽车相关公司的资金和关注是否会类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，或者类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，还有待观察。早期的事情对燃料电池公司的关注，其中几家公司——20年后——仍未恢复到当时创下的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒观众，电动汽车、可再生能源和“创新”股票在整个股市中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的2%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Blue Horizon的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术改进不断提高，这预示着未来的良好前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球范围内投资数万亿美元，广泛采用和使用电动汽车技术的基础设施只会增加。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师预测，到2030年，全球汽车制造商来自电动汽车的收入将从目前的1820亿美元增至1.16万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机汽车的收入目前为1.77万亿美元，将减少至1.07万亿美元。到2030年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA的加勒特·纳尔逊(Garrett Nelson)在一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在了很长时间，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比所有其他年份的总和还要多。最近的笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，2021年的活动有望“大幅”超过去年，一些最大的SPAC交易可能再次出现在“新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊说，一些突然出现的公司“更像是商业计划，而不是产生收入或利润的业务”，但有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which&nbsp;plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV&nbsp;and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>这位CFRA分析师特别指出，Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过SPAC与Churchill Capital Corp.IV合并上市）以及私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s&nbsp;MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉每辆电动汽车的成本优势约为1,000至2,000美元。大众汽车公司的MEB平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的构建模块，已经与特斯拉“完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是自动驾驶汽车，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的组件所产生的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自治是一个顽固且解决起来成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标很高，但当今道路上的大多数汽车都提供了先进的驾驶员辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统没有太大区别，而且距离它们在不久的将来有望改变生活和经济的游戏规则还很远。遥远的未来。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要专注于可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和ADAS产品，电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面领先。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“电动汽车只是一种更好的产品，”蓝色地平线的米切尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2119094972","content_text":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate\nWall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.\nThere is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc. Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.\nAnd what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.\n“The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.\nIn several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.\nNot to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co. and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&P 500 index in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc. attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.\n“The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.\nThat doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.\nMuch more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”\nExtrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.\nRecent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.\n‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables\nThe heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.\nAt a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”\nBubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.\nThe JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&P 500.\nBoding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.\n“Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.\nAnalysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.\nConversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.\nHere’s the UBS chart, in billions:\n\nA company or a business plan?\nBlank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.\nActivity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.\n\nSome of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.\nThe CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.\nTesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.\nThe UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.\nVW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.\nEVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer\nRelated to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.\nFull autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.\nDespite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.\nFor now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.\n“EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"F":0.9,"GM":0.9,"CCIV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363126395,"gmtCreate":1614112670617,"gmtModify":1634551149323,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363126395","repostId":"2113382925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385928260,"gmtCreate":1613494954150,"gmtModify":1634553412931,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385928260","repostId":"1121326703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>砰！</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>砰！</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":807588562,"gmtCreate":1628043652056,"gmtModify":1633754098426,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":110,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807588562","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150736377,"gmtCreate":1624927272599,"gmtModify":1633946949455,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150736377","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349167159,"gmtCreate":1617581342371,"gmtModify":1634520492887,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349167159","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375626045,"gmtCreate":1619335140087,"gmtModify":1634274139658,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","listText":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","text":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375626045","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327705771,"gmtCreate":1616122077393,"gmtModify":1634527117511,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327705771","repostId":"1161359915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146124817,"gmtCreate":1626060801539,"gmtModify":1633930519366,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146124817","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352331047,"gmtCreate":1616891443089,"gmtModify":1634523661781,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like this comment pls","listText":"Like this comment pls","text":"Like this comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352331047","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133864388,"gmtCreate":1621736071644,"gmtModify":1634186909962,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like comment!","listText":"Pls like comment!","text":"Pls like comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133864388","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346603764,"gmtCreate":1618026075858,"gmtModify":1634295157343,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346603764","repostId":"2126333180","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802625776,"gmtCreate":1627778288595,"gmtModify":1633756544951,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802625776","repostId":"1167653033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167653033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627706886,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167653033?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 12:48","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在COVID-19困境中，新加坡元将跌至1.35美元/美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167653033","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, accor","content":"<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案的数据，预计2021年新加坡元兑美元汇率将跌至1.35美元，2022年将进一步跌至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的2021年兑美元1.33美元和2022年兑美元1.32美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉表示：“在美联储6月16日的鹰派意外之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一致走弱，2021年剩余时间以及2022年可能会在1.35美元兑1.38美元之间的弱势区间内交易。”说。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国等主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染死灰复燃引发的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值美中贸易战的初始阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“然而，由于人口疫苗接种取得了快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应该受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制。”“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着时间的推移，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的某种程度的避险资金，从而限制了进一步贬值超出我们确定的交易范围的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长期来看，惠誉预计2022年出口强劲复苏将支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险将抵消这一风险。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案（Fitch Solutions）认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步的封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在COVID-19困境中，新加坡元将跌至1.35美元/美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在COVID-19困境中，新加坡元将跌至1.35美元/美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Singapore Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 12:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案的数据，预计2021年新加坡元兑美元汇率将跌至1.35美元，2022年将进一步跌至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的2021年兑美元1.33美元和2022年兑美元1.32美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉表示：“在美联储6月16日的鹰派意外之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一致走弱，2021年剩余时间以及2022年可能会在1.35美元兑1.38美元之间的弱势区间内交易。”说。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国等主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染死灰复燃引发的避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值美中贸易战的初始阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“然而，由于人口疫苗接种取得了快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应该受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制。”“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着时间的推移，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的某种程度的避险资金，从而限制了进一步贬值超出我们确定的交易范围的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长期来看，惠誉预计2022年出口强劲复苏将支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险将抵消这一风险。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案（Fitch Solutions）认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步的封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch\">Singapore Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167653033","content_text":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.\nThis is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.\n“The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.\nThis is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.\nThe SGD also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.\n“However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”\nFor the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.\nFitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351017187,"gmtCreate":1616545749249,"gmtModify":1634525294010,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like this post pls","listText":"Like this post pls","text":"Like this post pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351017187","repostId":"1137026530","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325309566,"gmtCreate":1615861114655,"gmtModify":1703494114836,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325309566","repostId":"2119094972","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119094972","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615860566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119094972?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 10:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119094972","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but ","content":"<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经不祥之兆”，但通往电气化未来的旅程长度仍然是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，华尔街和硅谷向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在转向电动汽车。电动汽车（EV）价格下降、供应量增加；提供更便宜、更耐用、充电更快的电池的技术突破的潜力；电动汽车基础设施的进步以及在美国和其他地方扎根的“绿色友好”政府举措显示了可能的道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域已迅速发展成为一个结合工业、科技和交通的子行业，中国是电动汽车制造商的基础市场和电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据CB Insights和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020年公共和私营电动汽车公司的投资总额至少为280亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>Blue Horizon Capital合伙人约翰·米切尔(John Mitchell)表示：“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，已经不祥之兆。”</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在世界上的几个国家，人们将在短短十年或二十年内不再被允许购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到“向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc.&nbsp;attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终显示出持续盈利后，于2020年加入了标普500指数。蔚来公司（NIO，-1.25%）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯最近表示：“电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。”他说，最近的疲软是短期的“成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机到电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到届时占市场份额的三分之二。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管已经有数十亿美元用于电动汽车相关投资，但仍需要更多资金来为这一转变提供资金。B.of A.Securities最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车“革命”贴上了价格标签，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个“巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉融资与其汽车制造能力之间的关系推断，B.of A.分析师计算出，向100%电动汽车世界的转变将需要来自公司、投资者和政府超过2.5万亿美元的投资。世界各地。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，电动汽车和相关公司最近通过SPAC或“空白支票”公司筹集的资金“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣增强引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管Joyce Chang和其他人告诉观众，他们没有看到“广泛的股市泡沫”，但市场的“某些部分”正在经历“高速增长，例如电动汽车和可再生能源。”</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司以及自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶汽车相关公司的资金和关注是否会类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，或者类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，还有待观察。早期的事情对燃料电池公司的关注，其中几家公司——20年后——仍未恢复到当时创下的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒观众，电动汽车、可再生能源和“创新”股票在整个股市中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的2%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Blue Horizon的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术改进不断提高，这预示着未来的良好前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球范围内投资数万亿美元，广泛采用和使用电动汽车技术的基础设施只会增加。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师预测，到2030年，全球汽车制造商来自电动汽车的收入将从目前的1820亿美元增至1.16万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机汽车的收入目前为1.77万亿美元，将减少至1.07万亿美元。到2030年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA的加勒特·纳尔逊(Garrett Nelson)在一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在了很长时间，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比所有其他年份的总和还要多。最近的笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，2021年的活动有望“大幅”超过去年，一些最大的SPAC交易可能再次出现在“新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊说，一些突然出现的公司“更像是商业计划，而不是产生收入或利润的业务”，但有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which&nbsp;plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV&nbsp;and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>这位CFRA分析师特别指出，Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过SPAC与Churchill Capital Corp.IV合并上市）以及私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s&nbsp;MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉每辆电动汽车的成本优势约为1,000至2,000美元。大众汽车公司的MEB平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的构建模块，已经与特斯拉“完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是自动驾驶汽车，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的组件所产生的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自治是一个顽固且解决起来成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标很高，但当今道路上的大多数汽车都提供了先进的驾驶员辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统没有太大区别，而且距离它们在不久的将来有望改变生活和经济的游戏规则还很远。遥远的未来。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要专注于可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和ADAS产品，电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面领先。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“电动汽车只是一种更好的产品，”蓝色地平线的米切尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 10:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经不祥之兆”，但通往电气化未来的旅程长度仍然是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，华尔街和硅谷向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在转向电动汽车。电动汽车（EV）价格下降、供应量增加；提供更便宜、更耐用、充电更快的电池的技术突破的潜力；电动汽车基础设施的进步以及在美国和其他地方扎根的“绿色友好”政府举措显示了可能的道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域已迅速发展成为一个结合工业、科技和交通的子行业，中国是电动汽车制造商的基础市场和电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据CB Insights和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020年公共和私营电动汽车公司的投资总额至少为280亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>Blue Horizon Capital合伙人约翰·米切尔(John Mitchell)表示：“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，已经不祥之兆。”</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在世界上的几个国家，人们将在短短十年或二十年内不再被允许购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到“向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc.&nbsp;attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终显示出持续盈利后，于2020年加入了标普500指数。蔚来公司（NIO，-1.25%）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯最近表示：“电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。”他说，最近的疲软是短期的“成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机到电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到届时占市场份额的三分之二。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管已经有数十亿美元用于电动汽车相关投资，但仍需要更多资金来为这一转变提供资金。B.of A.Securities最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车“革命”贴上了价格标签，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个“巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉融资与其汽车制造能力之间的关系推断，B.of A.分析师计算出，向100%电动汽车世界的转变将需要来自公司、投资者和政府超过2.5万亿美元的投资。世界各地。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，电动汽车和相关公司最近通过SPAC或“空白支票”公司筹集的资金“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣增强引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管Joyce Chang和其他人告诉观众，他们没有看到“广泛的股市泡沫”，但市场的“某些部分”正在经历“高速增长，例如电动汽车和可再生能源。”</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司以及自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶汽车相关公司的资金和关注是否会类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，或者类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，还有待观察。早期的事情对燃料电池公司的关注，其中几家公司——20年后——仍未恢复到当时创下的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒观众，电动汽车、可再生能源和“创新”股票在整个股市中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的2%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Blue Horizon的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术改进不断提高，这预示着未来的良好前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球范围内投资数万亿美元，广泛采用和使用电动汽车技术的基础设施只会增加。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师预测，到2030年，全球汽车制造商来自电动汽车的收入将从目前的1820亿美元增至1.16万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机汽车的收入目前为1.77万亿美元，将减少至1.07万亿美元。到2030年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA的加勒特·纳尔逊(Garrett Nelson)在一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在了很长时间，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比所有其他年份的总和还要多。最近的笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，2021年的活动有望“大幅”超过去年，一些最大的SPAC交易可能再次出现在“新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊说，一些突然出现的公司“更像是商业计划，而不是产生收入或利润的业务”，但有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which&nbsp;plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV&nbsp;and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>这位CFRA分析师特别指出，Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过SPAC与Churchill Capital Corp.IV合并上市）以及私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s&nbsp;MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉每辆电动汽车的成本优势约为1,000至2,000美元。大众汽车公司的MEB平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的构建模块，已经与特斯拉“完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是自动驾驶汽车，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的组件所产生的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自治是一个顽固且解决起来成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标很高，但当今道路上的大多数汽车都提供了先进的驾驶员辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统没有太大区别，而且距离它们在不久的将来有望改变生活和经济的游戏规则还很远。遥远的未来。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要专注于可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和ADAS产品，电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面领先。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“电动汽车只是一种更好的产品，”蓝色地平线的米切尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2119094972","content_text":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate\nWall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.\nThere is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc. Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.\nAnd what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.\n“The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.\nIn several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.\nNot to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co. and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&P 500 index in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc. attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.\n“The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.\nThat doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.\nMuch more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”\nExtrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.\nRecent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.\n‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables\nThe heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.\nAt a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”\nBubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.\nThe JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&P 500.\nBoding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.\n“Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.\nAnalysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.\nConversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.\nHere’s the UBS chart, in billions:\n\nA company or a business plan?\nBlank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.\nActivity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.\n\nSome of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.\nThe CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.\nTesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.\nThe UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.\nVW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.\nEVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer\nRelated to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.\nFull autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.\nDespite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.\nFor now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.\n“EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"F":0.9,"GM":0.9,"CCIV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136957420,"gmtCreate":1621991693060,"gmtModify":1634184922559,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136957420","repostId":"2138196079","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350659510,"gmtCreate":1616204137830,"gmtModify":1634526754306,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350659510","repostId":"1128367483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385928260,"gmtCreate":1613494954150,"gmtModify":1634553412931,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385928260","repostId":"1121326703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>砰！</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>砰！</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385928030,"gmtCreate":1613494885820,"gmtModify":1634553413053,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385928030","repostId":"2111838268","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150476266,"gmtCreate":1624926286055,"gmtModify":1633946977979,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150476266","repostId":"1171400086","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346492406,"gmtCreate":1618099480305,"gmtModify":1634294944872,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346492406","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352449097,"gmtCreate":1616997929519,"gmtModify":1634523223269,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP to him","listText":"RIP to him","text":"RIP to him","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352449097","repostId":"2123338992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359343732,"gmtCreate":1616369035026,"gmtModify":1634526254915,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570105288869375","idStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359343732","repostId":"1128367483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}