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2021-08-04

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Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>

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SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在 COVID-19 困境中，新加坡元将贬值至 1.35 美元/美元</blockquote>

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like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":110,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807588562","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802625776,"gmtCreate":1627778288595,"gmtModify":1633756544951,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802625776","repostId":"1167653033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167653033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627706886,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167653033?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 12:48","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在 COVID-19 困境中，新加坡元将贬值至 1.35 美元/美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167653033","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, accor","content":"<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案公司的数据，预计2021年新加坡元（SGD）兑美元（USD）将贬值至1.35美元，2022年将进一步贬值至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的 2021 年美元兑 1.33 美元和 2022 年美元兑 1.32 美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>“惠誉表示：”在美联储于 6 月 16 日出其不意的鹰派政策之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一样走弱，在 2021 年剩余时间里，新加坡元可能会在 1 美元兑 1.35 美元至 1 美元兑 1.38 美元之间的弱势区间内交易，2022 年也可能如此。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲各地（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国的主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染病例死灰复燃引发了避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值中美贸易战的初期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>“然而，由于为民众接种疫苗的快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制，”它补充道。“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使得新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着今年的进展，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的一定程度的避险资金流动，从而限制了新加坡元在我们确定的交易区间之外进一步贬值的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，惠誉预计 2022 年出口将强劲复苏以支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于 -2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险平衡了这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案公司认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在 COVID-19 困境中，新加坡元将贬值至 1.35 美元/美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在 COVID-19 困境中，新加坡元将贬值至 1.35 美元/美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Singapore Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 12:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案公司的数据，预计2021年新加坡元（SGD）兑美元（USD）将贬值至1.35美元，2022年将进一步贬值至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的 2021 年美元兑 1.33 美元和 2022 年美元兑 1.32 美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>“惠誉表示：”在美联储于 6 月 16 日出其不意的鹰派政策之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一样走弱，在 2021 年剩余时间里，新加坡元可能会在 1 美元兑 1.35 美元至 1 美元兑 1.38 美元之间的弱势区间内交易，2022 年也可能如此。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲各地（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国的主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染病例死灰复燃引发了避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值中美贸易战的初期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>“然而，由于为民众接种疫苗的快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制，”它补充道。“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使得新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着今年的进展，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的一定程度的避险资金流动，从而限制了新加坡元在我们确定的交易区间之外进一步贬值的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，惠誉预计 2022 年出口将强劲复苏以支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于 -2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险平衡了这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案公司认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch\">Singapore Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167653033","content_text":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.\nThis is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.\n“The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.\nThis is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.\nThe SGD also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.\n“However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”\nFor the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.\nFitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146124817,"gmtCreate":1626060801539,"gmtModify":1633930519366,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls 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Thanks!","listText":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","text":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375626045","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346492406,"gmtCreate":1618099480305,"gmtModify":1634294944872,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349167159","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352449097,"gmtCreate":1616997929519,"gmtModify":1634523223269,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"RIP to him","listText":"RIP to him","text":"RIP to him","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352449097","repostId":"2123338992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352331047,"gmtCreate":1616891443089,"gmtModify":1634523661781,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this comment pls","listText":"Like this comment pls","text":"Like this comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352331047","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股 8.02 美元，比公司 9.5 美元的 IPO 价格低约 15.6%。知乎的 IPO 价格处于区间的低端，公司估值约为 53 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五公布了首次公开募股的定价，为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期范围的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中提供了5500万份广告，筹集了5.225亿美元，而定价对该公司的估值约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎有一个类似于Quora的商业模式，数百万人提出问题，交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为中国最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们估计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年增加到31.5%，在2025年增加到37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率由2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率将进一步提高至2021年的57.4%和2025年的62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用及营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总营运开支占收入的百分比由二零一九年的204.4%大幅下降至二零二零年的100.6%。我们预计这一比率将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年达到69.2%，2025年达到57.2%。运营费用的大部分改善来自于未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年底，知乎累计拥有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的主要优势之一是它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被认为提供中国最高质量的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎从百度和快手科技等领先投资者那里获得了4.34亿美元的资金，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率应用于该公司 2020 年 2.07 亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初开发于2010年，是一个问答在线社区。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿条问答，涵盖1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。就2020年的平均移动MAU和收入而言，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周源拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性占用户总数的56.9%。30岁以下的人占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市占总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领职场人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。本公司的广告收入主要由其每月活跃用户及每月活跃用户的广告收入推动。2020年，该公司的MAU同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年推出付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，平均每月会员人数同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，该公司推出了Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了无限制访问约340万个付费内容的机会，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它展示了高质量的数据和内容如何产生大量的收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、将最相关的内容创作者分配给感兴趣的用户以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询，预计2019年至2025年，中国内容商务解决方案市场将实现46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指以UGC（用户生成内容）为中心的（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容）为中心的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创建者也是用户，他们在社区内积极参与。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以刺激更高水平的用户参与、更多交互式的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由二零一五年的386亿元人民币增长至二零一九年的2758亿元人民币，预计二零二五年将进一步增长至1.3万亿元人民币，二零一九年至二零二五年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场的增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电子商务、内容商务解决方案、直播中的虚拟礼物、网络游戏和在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一大积极因素是越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。2019 年至 2025 年间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量预计将以 17.1% 的复合年增长率增长，这意味着到 2025 年，在线内容社区的付费用户数量将增加 3.604 亿，达到 5.882 亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国网络内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场从2015年增长了两倍，到2019年达到1.2万亿元人民币。该市场预计将于2025年增长至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容社区市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国付费会员市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供集成的内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到分发给感兴趣的用户。中国内容商务解决方案市场预计将从2019年的114亿元人民币增长至2025年的1123亿元人民币，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（按收入计），2015-2025E</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股 8.02 美元，比公司 9.5 美元的 IPO 价格低约 15.6%。知乎的 IPO 价格处于区间的低端，公司估值约为 53 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五公布了首次公开募股的定价，为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期范围的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中提供了5500万份广告，筹集了5.225亿美元，而定价对该公司的估值约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎有一个类似于Quora的商业模式，数百万人提出问题，交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为中国最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们估计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年增加到31.5%，在2025年增加到37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率由2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率将进一步提高至2021年的57.4%和2025年的62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用及营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总营运开支占收入的百分比由二零一九年的204.4%大幅下降至二零二零年的100.6%。我们预计这一比率将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年达到69.2%，2025年达到57.2%。运营费用的大部分改善来自于未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年底，知乎累计拥有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的主要优势之一是它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被认为提供中国最高质量的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎从百度和快手科技等领先投资者那里获得了4.34亿美元的资金，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率应用于该公司 2020 年 2.07 亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初开发于2010年，是一个问答在线社区。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿条问答，涵盖1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。就2020年的平均移动MAU和收入而言，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周源拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性占用户总数的56.9%。30岁以下的人占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市占总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领职场人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。本公司的广告收入主要由其每月活跃用户及每月活跃用户的广告收入推动。2020年，该公司的MAU同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年推出付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，平均每月会员人数同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，该公司推出了Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了无限制访问约340万个付费内容的机会，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它展示了高质量的数据和内容如何产生大量的收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、将最相关的内容创作者分配给感兴趣的用户以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询，预计2019年至2025年，中国内容商务解决方案市场将实现46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指以UGC（用户生成内容）为中心的（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容）为中心的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创建者也是用户，他们在社区内积极参与。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以刺激更高水平的用户参与、更多交互式的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由二零一五年的386亿元人民币增长至二零一九年的2758亿元人民币，预计二零二五年将进一步增长至1.3万亿元人民币，二零一九年至二零二五年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场的增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电子商务、内容商务解决方案、直播中的虚拟礼物、网络游戏和在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一大积极因素是越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。2019 年至 2025 年间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量预计将以 17.1% 的复合年增长率增长，这意味着到 2025 年，在线内容社区的付费用户数量将增加 3.604 亿，达到 5.882 亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国网络内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场从2015年增长了两倍，到2019年达到1.2万亿元人民币。该市场预计将于2025年增长至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容社区市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国付费会员市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供集成的内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到分发给感兴趣的用户。中国内容商务解决方案市场预计将从2019年的114亿元人民币增长至2025年的1123亿元人民币，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（按收入计），2015-2025E</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351017187,"gmtCreate":1616545749249,"gmtModify":1634525294010,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this post pls","listText":"Like this post pls","text":"Like this post 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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327705771","repostId":"1161359915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325309566,"gmtCreate":1615861114655,"gmtModify":1703494114836,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325309566","repostId":"2119094972","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119094972","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615860566,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2119094972?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 10:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业发生变化之前还需要更多资金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119094972","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but ","content":"<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经板上钉钉，但通往电气化未来的道路长度仍是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和硅谷在 2020 年向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在向电动汽车发展。电动汽车（EV）的价格下降和供应量增加；技术突破的潜力，提供更便宜、更持久、充电更快的电池；电动汽车基础设施的进步，以及在美国和其他地方扎根的 “绿色友好 ”政府举措，都表明了可能的发展道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域，如今已发展成为一个集工业、科技和交通运输于一体的子行业，而中国既是电动汽车制造商的基础市场，也是电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据 CB Insights 和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020 年公共和私营电动汽车公司总共投资了至少 280 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>“蓝色地平线资本（Blue Horizon Capital）合伙人约翰-米切尔（John Mitchell）说：”关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，墙上写着什么。</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，在短短的一二十年内，世界上一些国家将不再允许人们购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到 “向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径”。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc.&nbsp;attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年的时间内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终表现出持续的利润后，于 2020 年加入了标普500指数。蔚来汽车公司（NIO）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司的参与几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“Wedbush 分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）最近说：”电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。他说，最近的疲软是短期的 “成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机向电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的 2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到 2030 年汽车销量的 10% 至 20% 的低端预测，到届时将占据多达三分之二的市场。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管数十亿美元已经用于与电动汽车相关的投资，但仍需要更多的资金来资助这一转变。B. of A. Securities 最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车 “革命 ”标明了价格，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个 “巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉的资本筹集与其汽车制造能力之间的关系，A. 的 B. 分析师计算出，要向 100% 电动汽车世界转变，需要来自世界各地公司、投资者和政府的超过 2.5 万亿美元的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们说，电动汽车及相关公司最近通过 SPAC 或 “空白支票 ”公司筹集资金，“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣日益浓厚，引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近举行的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管乔伊斯-张（Joyce Chang）等人告诉听众，他们没有看到 “广泛的股市泡沫”，但 “某些市场领域 ”正在经历 “高速增长，如电动汽车和可再生能源”。</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司、自动驾驶汽车和AV相关公司的资金和注意力，是否会像五年前对云计算公司的短暂关注一样，或者像早期对燃料电池公司的关注一样，还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒听众，电动汽车、可再生能源和 “创新 ”股票在更广泛的股票市场中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的 2% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，蓝色地平线公司的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术不断提高，这预示着未来的好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球投资数万亿美元，电动汽车技术广泛采用和使用的基础设施只会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银（UBS）分析师预测，到 2030 年，全球汽车制造商的电动汽车收入将从目前的 1820 亿美元增至 1.16 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机车辆的收入目前为 1.77 万亿美元，将减少至 1.07 万亿美元。到 2030 年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近 2 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银的图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 的加勒特·纳尔逊 (Garrett Nelson) 在最近的一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在很长时间了，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比其他所有年份的总和还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，2021 年的活动有望 “大幅度 ”超过去年，一些最大的 SPAC 交易可能会再次出现在 “新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>尼尔森说，一些突然出现的公司 “更像是商业计划，而不是创收或创利的企业”，但我们有理由感到乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which&nbsp;plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV&nbsp;and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 分析师特别指出 Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过与 Churchill Capital Corp. IV 进行 SPAC 合并而上市）和私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s&nbsp;MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但特斯拉每辆电动汽车比其他汽车制造商拥有约 1,000 至 2,000 美元的成本优势。大众汽车公司（Volkswagen AG）的 MEB 平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的基石，该平台已经与特斯拉 “完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众汽车在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率的平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是 AV，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的零部件所引起的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自主权是一个难以解决且成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标远大，但如今道路上的大多数汽车都配备了先进的驾驶辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统并没有太大区别，而且距离在不久的将来改变生活和经济的游戏规则还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要关注可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和 ADAS 产品，其中电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“蓝色地平线公司的米切尔说：”电动汽车只是一种更好的产品。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业发生变化之前还需要更多资金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业发生变化之前还需要更多资金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 10:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经板上钉钉，但通往电气化未来的道路长度仍是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和硅谷在 2020 年向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在向电动汽车发展。电动汽车（EV）的价格下降和供应量增加；技术突破的潜力，提供更便宜、更持久、充电更快的电池；电动汽车基础设施的进步，以及在美国和其他地方扎根的 “绿色友好 ”政府举措，都表明了可能的发展道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域，如今已发展成为一个集工业、科技和交通运输于一体的子行业，而中国既是电动汽车制造商的基础市场，也是电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据 CB Insights 和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020 年公共和私营电动汽车公司总共投资了至少 280 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>“蓝色地平线资本（Blue Horizon Capital）合伙人约翰-米切尔（John Mitchell）说：”关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，墙上写着什么。</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，在短短的一二十年内，世界上一些国家将不再允许人们购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到 “向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径”。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc.&nbsp;attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年的时间内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终表现出持续的利润后，于 2020 年加入了标普500指数。蔚来汽车公司（NIO）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司的参与几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“Wedbush 分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）最近说：”电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。他说，最近的疲软是短期的 “成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机向电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的 2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到 2030 年汽车销量的 10% 至 20% 的低端预测，到届时将占据多达三分之二的市场。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管数十亿美元已经用于与电动汽车相关的投资，但仍需要更多的资金来资助这一转变。B. of A. Securities 最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车 “革命 ”标明了价格，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个 “巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉的资本筹集与其汽车制造能力之间的关系，A. 的 B. 分析师计算出，要向 100% 电动汽车世界转变，需要来自世界各地公司、投资者和政府的超过 2.5 万亿美元的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们说，电动汽车及相关公司最近通过 SPAC 或 “空白支票 ”公司筹集资金，“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣日益浓厚，引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近举行的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管乔伊斯-张（Joyce Chang）等人告诉听众，他们没有看到 “广泛的股市泡沫”，但 “某些市场领域 ”正在经历 “高速增长，如电动汽车和可再生能源”。</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司、自动驾驶汽车和AV相关公司的资金和注意力，是否会像五年前对云计算公司的短暂关注一样，或者像早期对燃料电池公司的关注一样，还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒听众，电动汽车、可再生能源和 “创新 ”股票在更广泛的股票市场中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的 2% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，蓝色地平线公司的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术不断提高，这预示着未来的好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球投资数万亿美元，电动汽车技术广泛采用和使用的基础设施只会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银（UBS）分析师预测，到 2030 年，全球汽车制造商的电动汽车收入将从目前的 1820 亿美元增至 1.16 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机车辆的收入目前为 1.77 万亿美元，将减少至 1.07 万亿美元。到 2030 年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近 2 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银的图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 的加勒特·纳尔逊 (Garrett Nelson) 在最近的一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在很长时间了，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比其他所有年份的总和还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，2021 年的活动有望 “大幅度 ”超过去年，一些最大的 SPAC 交易可能会再次出现在 “新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>尼尔森说，一些突然出现的公司 “更像是商业计划，而不是创收或创利的企业”，但我们有理由感到乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which&nbsp;plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV&nbsp;and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 分析师特别指出 Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过与 Churchill Capital Corp. IV 进行 SPAC 合并而上市）和私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s&nbsp;MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但特斯拉每辆电动汽车比其他汽车制造商拥有约 1,000 至 2,000 美元的成本优势。大众汽车公司（Volkswagen AG）的 MEB 平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的基石，该平台已经与特斯拉 “完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众汽车在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率的平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是 AV，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的零部件所引起的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自主权是一个难以解决且成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标远大，但如今道路上的大多数汽车都配备了先进的驾驶辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统并没有太大区别，而且距离在不久的将来改变生活和经济的游戏规则还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要关注可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和 ADAS 产品，其中电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“蓝色地平线公司的米切尔说：”电动汽车只是一种更好的产品。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克","NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2119094972","content_text":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate\nWall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.\nThere is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc. Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.\nAnd what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.\n“The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.\nIn several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.\nNot to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co. and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&P 500 index in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc. attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.\n“The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.\nThat doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.\nMuch more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”\nExtrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.\nRecent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.\n‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables\nThe heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.\nAt a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”\nBubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.\nThe JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&P 500.\nBoding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.\n“Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.\nAnalysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.\nConversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.\nHere’s the UBS chart, in billions:\n\nA company or a business plan?\nBlank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.\nActivity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.\n\nSome of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.\nThe CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.\nTesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.\nThe UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.\nVW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.\nEVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer\nRelated to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.\nFull autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.\nDespite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.\nFor now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.\n“EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"CCIV":0.9,"GM":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363126395,"gmtCreate":1614112670617,"gmtModify":1634551149323,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363126395","repostId":"2113382925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385928260,"gmtCreate":1613494954150,"gmtModify":1634553412931,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385928260","repostId":"1121326703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但忽略了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>观看长期失业者的这一衡量标准</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>如今华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上再花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人则担心自己下降的速度不够快，担心挥之不去的伤疤会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这两个群体可能都是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长至秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但是，随着公司利用冲击引入节省成本的技术，随着消费者从封锁中走出来，养成新的习惯，同样的旧工作岗位将不会全部被填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于较低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，治愈经济创伤需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 COVID-19 大流行病对去年的经济来说令人震惊，但全世界的同步政策反应却更加令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几个高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有这些钱在世界各地晃动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，追随国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年 3 月 14.7% 的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康且债务较低。有了额外的政府支持，贫困家庭的收入甚至略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬天变成春天，美国人一有第二次机会，就计划疯狂购物和异国情调的旅行，以控制他们的幽居热。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>咔嘣!</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心设想是今年实现稳定复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长，超过国会预算办公室3.7%的最新预测。失业率应该会从目前的 6.3% 有所下降，但这将是一个艰难的过程，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（包括失业超过 27 周的美国人）的绝对值和占总失业人数的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动参与率也大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到商场时，许多失去的工作岗位确实可能会再次出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到 20 世纪 60 年代的故事的一部分，当时 25-54 岁的男性（所谓的 “黄金年龄 ”）开始退出劳动力市场，原因是全球竞争、技术创新和工会衰弱等复杂因素共同作用。危机爆发时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。尽管经济复苏仍在继续，但一月份离开劳动力市场的人中约有 80% 是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的经济衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能会更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来降低运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将带来进一步的破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当经济复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能组合。并不是说空姐不能在网上零售商的物流中心获得地面工作，但这绝不是自动的，也不舒服。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求恢复时让他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，情况就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>即使有另一个刺激计划，这些问题也不是可以轻易解决的。正如经济学家马尔科·安农齐亚塔（Marco Annunziata）指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的激励。进步也需要对培训和教育进行投资，可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，如果你想看涨期权的话，“好消息”是这些是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国劳动力继续恶化，这对长期增长产生了各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但忽略了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但忽略了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>观看长期失业者的这一衡量标准</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>如今华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上再花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人则担心自己下降的速度不够快，担心挥之不去的伤疤会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这两个群体可能都是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长至秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但是，随着公司利用冲击引入节省成本的技术，随着消费者从封锁中走出来，养成新的习惯，同样的旧工作岗位将不会全部被填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于较低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，治愈经济创伤需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 COVID-19 大流行病对去年的经济来说令人震惊，但全世界的同步政策反应却更加令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几个高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有这些钱在世界各地晃动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，追随国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年 3 月 14.7% 的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康且债务较低。有了额外的政府支持，贫困家庭的收入甚至略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬天变成春天，美国人一有第二次机会，就计划疯狂购物和异国情调的旅行，以控制他们的幽居热。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>咔嘣!</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心设想是今年实现稳定复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长，超过国会预算办公室3.7%的最新预测。失业率应该会从目前的 6.3% 有所下降，但这将是一个艰难的过程，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（包括失业超过 27 周的美国人）的绝对值和占总失业人数的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动参与率也大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到商场时，许多失去的工作岗位确实可能会再次出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到 20 世纪 60 年代的故事的一部分，当时 25-54 岁的男性（所谓的 “黄金年龄 ”）开始退出劳动力市场，原因是全球竞争、技术创新和工会衰弱等复杂因素共同作用。危机爆发时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。尽管经济复苏仍在继续，但一月份离开劳动力市场的人中约有 80% 是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的经济衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能会更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来降低运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将带来进一步的破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当经济复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能组合。并不是说空姐不能在网上零售商的物流中心获得地面工作，但这绝不是自动的，也不舒服。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求恢复时让他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，情况就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>即使有另一个刺激计划，这些问题也不是可以轻易解决的。正如经济学家马尔科·安农齐亚塔（Marco Annunziata）指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的激励。进步也需要对培训和教育进行投资，可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，如果你想看涨期权的话，“好消息”是这些是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国劳动力继续恶化，这对长期增长产生了各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":807588562,"gmtCreate":1628043652056,"gmtModify":1633754098426,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":110,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807588562","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150736377,"gmtCreate":1624927272599,"gmtModify":1633946949455,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150736377","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349167159,"gmtCreate":1617581342371,"gmtModify":1634520492887,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349167159","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375626045,"gmtCreate":1619335140087,"gmtModify":1634274139658,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","listText":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","text":"Pls like comment! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375626045","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327705771,"gmtCreate":1616122077393,"gmtModify":1634527117511,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327705771","repostId":"1161359915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146124817,"gmtCreate":1626060801539,"gmtModify":1633930519366,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146124817","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352331047,"gmtCreate":1616891443089,"gmtModify":1634523661781,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this comment pls","listText":"Like this comment pls","text":"Like this comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352331047","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股 8.02 美元，比公司 9.5 美元的 IPO 价格低约 15.6%。知乎的 IPO 价格处于区间的低端，公司估值约为 53 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五公布了首次公开募股的定价，为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期范围的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中提供了5500万份广告，筹集了5.225亿美元，而定价对该公司的估值约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎有一个类似于Quora的商业模式，数百万人提出问题，交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为中国最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们估计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年增加到31.5%，在2025年增加到37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率由2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率将进一步提高至2021年的57.4%和2025年的62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用及营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总营运开支占收入的百分比由二零一九年的204.4%大幅下降至二零二零年的100.6%。我们预计这一比率将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年达到69.2%，2025年达到57.2%。运营费用的大部分改善来自于未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年底，知乎累计拥有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的主要优势之一是它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被认为提供中国最高质量的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎从百度和快手科技等领先投资者那里获得了4.34亿美元的资金，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率应用于该公司 2020 年 2.07 亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初开发于2010年，是一个问答在线社区。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿条问答，涵盖1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。就2020年的平均移动MAU和收入而言，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周源拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性占用户总数的56.9%。30岁以下的人占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市占总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领职场人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。本公司的广告收入主要由其每月活跃用户及每月活跃用户的广告收入推动。2020年，该公司的MAU同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年推出付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，平均每月会员人数同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，该公司推出了Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了无限制访问约340万个付费内容的机会，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它展示了高质量的数据和内容如何产生大量的收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、将最相关的内容创作者分配给感兴趣的用户以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询，预计2019年至2025年，中国内容商务解决方案市场将实现46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指以UGC（用户生成内容）为中心的（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容）为中心的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创建者也是用户，他们在社区内积极参与。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以刺激更高水平的用户参与、更多交互式的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由二零一五年的386亿元人民币增长至二零一九年的2758亿元人民币，预计二零二五年将进一步增长至1.3万亿元人民币，二零一九年至二零二五年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场的增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电子商务、内容商务解决方案、直播中的虚拟礼物、网络游戏和在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一大积极因素是越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。2019 年至 2025 年间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量预计将以 17.1% 的复合年增长率增长，这意味着到 2025 年，在线内容社区的付费用户数量将增加 3.604 亿，达到 5.882 亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国网络内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场从2015年增长了两倍，到2019年达到1.2万亿元人民币。该市场预计将于2025年增长至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容社区市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国付费会员市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供集成的内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到分发给感兴趣的用户。中国内容商务解决方案市场预计将从2019年的114亿元人民币增长至2025年的1123亿元人民币，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（按收入计），2015-2025E</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股 8.02 美元，比公司 9.5 美元的 IPO 价格低约 15.6%。知乎的 IPO 价格处于区间的低端，公司估值约为 53 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五公布了首次公开募股的定价，为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期范围的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中提供了5500万份广告，筹集了5.225亿美元，而定价对该公司的估值约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎有一个类似于Quora的商业模式，数百万人提出问题，交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为中国最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们估计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年增加到31.5%，在2025年增加到37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率由2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率将进一步提高至2021年的57.4%和2025年的62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用及营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总营运开支占收入的百分比由二零一九年的204.4%大幅下降至二零二零年的100.6%。我们预计这一比率将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年达到69.2%，2025年达到57.2%。运营费用的大部分改善来自于未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年底，知乎累计拥有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的主要优势之一是它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被认为提供中国最高质量的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎从百度和快手科技等领先投资者那里获得了4.34亿美元的资金，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率应用于该公司 2020 年 2.07 亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初开发于2010年，是一个问答在线社区。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿条问答，涵盖1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。就2020年的平均移动MAU和收入而言，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周源拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性占用户总数的56.9%。30岁以下的人占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市占总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领职场人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。本公司的广告收入主要由其每月活跃用户及每月活跃用户的广告收入推动。2020年，该公司的MAU同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年推出付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，平均每月会员人数同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，该公司推出了Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了无限制访问约340万个付费内容的机会，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它展示了高质量的数据和内容如何产生大量的收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、将最相关的内容创作者分配给感兴趣的用户以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询，预计2019年至2025年，中国内容商务解决方案市场将实现46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指以UGC（用户生成内容）为中心的（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容）为中心的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创建者也是用户，他们在社区内积极参与。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以刺激更高水平的用户参与、更多交互式的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由二零一五年的386亿元人民币增长至二零一九年的2758亿元人民币，预计二零二五年将进一步增长至1.3万亿元人民币，二零一九年至二零二五年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场的增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电子商务、内容商务解决方案、直播中的虚拟礼物、网络游戏和在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一大积极因素是越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。2019 年至 2025 年间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量预计将以 17.1% 的复合年增长率增长，这意味着到 2025 年，在线内容社区的付费用户数量将增加 3.604 亿，达到 5.882 亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国网络内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场从2015年增长了两倍，到2019年达到1.2万亿元人民币。该市场预计将于2025年增长至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容社区市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国付费会员市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供集成的内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到分发给感兴趣的用户。中国内容商务解决方案市场预计将从2019年的114亿元人民币增长至2025年的1123亿元人民币，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（按收入计），2015-2025E</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133864388,"gmtCreate":1621736071644,"gmtModify":1634186909962,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like comment!","listText":"Pls like comment!","text":"Pls like comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133864388","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346603764,"gmtCreate":1618026075858,"gmtModify":1634295157343,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346603764","repostId":"2126333180","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802625776,"gmtCreate":1627778288595,"gmtModify":1633756544951,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802625776","repostId":"1167653033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167653033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627706886,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167653033?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 12:48","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在 COVID-19 困境中，新加坡元将贬值至 1.35 美元/美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167653033","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, accor","content":"<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案公司的数据，预计2021年新加坡元（SGD）兑美元（USD）将贬值至1.35美元，2022年将进一步贬值至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的 2021 年美元兑 1.33 美元和 2022 年美元兑 1.32 美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>“惠誉表示：”在美联储于 6 月 16 日出其不意的鹰派政策之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一样走弱，在 2021 年剩余时间里，新加坡元可能会在 1 美元兑 1.35 美元至 1 美元兑 1.38 美元之间的弱势区间内交易，2022 年也可能如此。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲各地（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国的主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染病例死灰复燃引发了避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值中美贸易战的初期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>“然而，由于为民众接种疫苗的快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制，”它补充道。“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使得新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着今年的进展，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的一定程度的避险资金流动，从而限制了新加坡元在我们确定的交易区间之外进一步贬值的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，惠誉预计 2022 年出口将强劲复苏以支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于 -2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险平衡了这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案公司认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在 COVID-19 困境中，新加坡元将贬值至 1.35 美元/美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSGD to weaken to $1.35/USD amidst COVID-19 woes: Fitch<blockquote>惠誉：在 COVID-19 困境中，新加坡元将贬值至 1.35 美元/美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Singapore Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 12:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据惠誉解决方案公司的数据，预计2021年新加坡元（SGD）兑美元（USD）将贬值至1.35美元，2022年将进一步贬值至1.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这比之前预测的 2021 年美元兑 1.33 美元和 2022 年美元兑 1.32 美元有所下调。</blockquote></p><p> “The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.</p><p><blockquote>“惠誉表示：”在美联储于 6 月 16 日出其不意的鹰派政策之后，新加坡元与大多数其他亚洲货币一样走弱，在 2021 年剩余时间里，新加坡元可能会在 1 美元兑 1.35 美元至 1 美元兑 1.38 美元之间的弱势区间内交易，2022 年也可能如此。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.</p><p><blockquote>这是由于亚洲各地（包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国的主要经济体）新冠肺炎感染病例死灰复燃引发了避险情绪。</blockquote></p><p> The SGD&nbsp;also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡元也在7月8日突破了1美元兑1.35美元的关键支撑位，此后一直走弱。新加坡上一次突破这一水平是在2018年7月，当时正值中美贸易战的初期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”</p><p><blockquote>“然而，由于为民众接种疫苗的快速进展，新加坡元的任何疲软都应受到经济比其他亚洲市场更具弹性的限制，”它补充道。“与大多数其他亚洲经济体相比，这使得新加坡处于更具弹性的地位，随着今年的进展，新加坡元可能会受益于来自该地区其他地方的一定程度的避险资金流动，从而限制了新加坡元在我们确定的交易区间之外进一步贬值的前景。”</blockquote></p><p> For the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，惠誉预计 2022 年出口将强劲复苏以支撑人民币，但如果目标通胀率持续高于 -2%，美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的风险平衡了这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Fitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>惠誉解决方案公司认为，一个关键风险是新冠肺炎变种可能绕过现有疫苗，这可能迫使新加坡实施进一步封锁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch\">Singapore Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/in-focus/sgd-weaken-135usd-amidst-covid-19-woes-fitch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167653033","content_text":"The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to weaken to $1.35 versus the US dollar (USD) for 2021, according to Fitch Solutions, to weaken further to $1.36 in 2022.\nThis is a downgrade from its previous forecast of $1.33 against the greenback for 2021 and $1.32 in 2022.\n“The SGD has weakened in line with most other Asian currencies after the Fed’s hawkish surprise on June 16, and will likely trade in a weaker range between $1.35 per USD and $1.38 per USD for the remainder of 2021 and likely in 2022 as well,” Fitch said.\nThis is due to the risk-off sentiment sparked by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across Asia, including the key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.\nThe SGD also breached the key support level of $1.35 per USD on 8 July and has weakened since. The last time Singapore breached this level was in July 2018, during the initial phases of the US-China trade war.\n“However, any weakness in the SGD should be capped by the economy being in a much more resilient position than other Asian markets, due to the fast progress in vaccinating the population,” it added. “This puts Singapore in a much more resilient position compared to most other Asian economies and the SGD could benefit from some degree of safe-haven flows from elsewhere in the region as the year progresses, limiting prospects for further depreciation beyond our identified trading range.”\nFor the long term, Fitch expects a strong recovery in exports to support the currency in 2022, but balanced by the risk of a potentially more hawkish US Fed if above-2% target inflation persists.\nFitch Solutions identified as a key risk the possibility of a COVID-19 variant that can bypass existing vaccines, which could force Singapore to implement further lockdowns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}