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funky0612

funky0612

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2021-12-23

Yes

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2021-05-30

Tesla 😱😱😱

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2021-05-27

Yes Palantir!!!

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2021-05-26

Cool

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2021-05-18

😎cool

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2021-05-15

Wow

Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote>

2021-04-12

Interesting

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2021-04-07

Interesting

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2021-04-07

Really ?

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2021-03-23

Semicon!!!

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2021-03-17

Wow

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2021-03-09

👍🏻

2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外2个理由</blockquote>

2021-03-05

🥺

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2021-03-04

Sell?!

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2021-03-04

[龇牙]

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2021-03-02

[财迷]

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2021-03-01

[惊讶]

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2021-02-26

[微笑]

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2021-02-24

Go go

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2021-02-23

[微笑]

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Palantir!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132404975","repostId":"1156279615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136607068,"gmtCreate":1622011223854,"gmtModify":1634184678760,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136607068","repostId":"1130362459","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195757467,"gmtCreate":1621320170059,"gmtModify":1634192468127,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😎cool","listText":"😎cool","text":"😎cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195757467","repostId":"2136963139","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196667513,"gmtCreate":1621049893532,"gmtModify":1634194288449,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196667513","repostId":"1111018641","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111018641","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621000588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111018641?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111018641","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect th","content":"<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场定时器与多头一起运行，但很快就转向看跌。</b>逆向投资者怀疑股市最近的下跌已经结束——就目前而言。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场定时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX（尤其是1.07%市场）的市场定时器，已经变得足够看跌，以至于阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。尽管如此，尚不清楚任何新的反弹是否会产生持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，按照历史标准，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%跌幅。在周四大幅上涨之前，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA已较之前的历史高点（即3.4%）下跌约1,200点，跌幅为0.85%。标准普尔500SPX指数(0.98%)较高点低4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数(1.13%)下跌7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下关注纳斯达克的市场定时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）为代表）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场定时器现在建议他们的客户将平均10.7%的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为+83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短10个交易日内就退出了94.3个百分点。事实上，自2000年以来的5,000多个交易日中，只有18-0.3%，其中HNNSI在过去10天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>为了理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次HNNSI下跌幅度如此之大、如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？图表上的答案也很明显：过去10天，HNNSI的下跌幅度远低于过度看跌区域，即历史分布的底部10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次落入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的“担忧之墙”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的那堵墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景显示，市场计时器乐于触发。当市场反弹时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会加入看跌行列。因此，无论是上涨还是下跌都往往是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>更持久的反弹将需要市场计时器更加极端的看跌情绪，并且他们在反弹最初起飞后顽固地坚持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场反弹——趁它持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场定时器与多头一起运行，但很快就转向看跌。</b>逆向投资者怀疑股市最近的下跌已经结束——就目前而言。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场定时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX（尤其是1.07%市场）的市场定时器，已经变得足够看跌，以至于阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。尽管如此，尚不清楚任何新的反弹是否会产生持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，按照历史标准，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%跌幅。在周四大幅上涨之前，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA已较之前的历史高点（即3.4%）下跌约1,200点，跌幅为0.85%。标准普尔500SPX指数(0.98%)较高点低4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数(1.13%)下跌7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下关注纳斯达克的市场定时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）为代表）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场定时器现在建议他们的客户将平均10.7%的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为+83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短10个交易日内就退出了94.3个百分点。事实上，自2000年以来的5,000多个交易日中，只有18-0.3%，其中HNNSI在过去10天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>为了理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次HNNSI下跌幅度如此之大、如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？图表上的答案也很明显：过去10天，HNNSI的下跌幅度远低于过度看跌区域，即历史分布的底部10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次落入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的“担忧之墙”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的那堵墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景显示，市场计时器乐于触发。当市场反弹时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会加入看跌行列。因此，无论是上涨还是下跌都往往是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>更持久的反弹将需要市场计时器更加极端的看跌情绪，并且他们在反弹最初起飞后顽固地坚持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场反弹——趁它持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111018641","content_text":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.\nThat’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.\nFor now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.\nConsider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.\n\nThat reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.\nTo appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.\nWhy, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.\nThe last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.\nThe sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.\nA longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342170694,"gmtCreate":1618193541718,"gmtModify":1634294508301,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342170694","repostId":"1130321704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341126483,"gmtCreate":1617795741642,"gmtModify":1634296475309,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341126483","repostId":"1120726818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341126816,"gmtCreate":1617795711235,"gmtModify":1634296475429,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really ?","listText":"Really ?","text":"Really ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341126816","repostId":"2125744665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353022423,"gmtCreate":1616434617262,"gmtModify":1634525830896,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Semicon!!!","listText":"Semicon!!!","text":"Semicon!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353022423","repostId":"1155582622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324375418,"gmtCreate":1615970139334,"gmtModify":1703495673810,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324375418","repostId":"1158940318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323943930,"gmtCreate":1615301023120,"gmtModify":1703487008810,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323943930","repostId":"1129681722","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129681722","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615295680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129681722?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 21:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外2个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129681722","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territ","content":"<p>Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territory. However, two price patterns suggest that this could be a good time to buy the stock.</p><p><blockquote>苹果经历了自10月份以来最糟糕的交易日，股价可能很快就会进入熊市区域。然而，两种价格模式表明，这可能是购买该股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, March 8, Apple stock had its worst day of trading since October 2020: down 4.2%, despite lack of company-specific news. My fears over the&nbsp;market cap dipping below $2 trillionfor the first time since November were also confirmed, maybe more quickly than I could have anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>3月8日星期一，苹果股价出现了自2020年10月以来最糟糕的交易日：尽管缺乏公司具体消息，但仍下跌4.2%。我对市值自11月以来首次跌破2万亿美元的担忧也得到了证实，也许比我预期的要快。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock is now nearly 19% off the peak of less than 30 trading days ago, and one inch away from bear territory. Investors must be feeling uneasy about holding shares during this uncomfortable pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价目前较不到30个交易日前的峰值下跌近19%，距离熊市仅一英寸。在这次令人不安的回调期间，投资者肯定对持有股票感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> But I believe that shareholders also have reasons to be optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>但我相信股东也有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史说：买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, a successful investment in Apple depends primarily on the company performing well and delivering above-consensus financial results going forward. In that regard, Apple’s business seems to be in very good shape, at least judging by&nbsp;the company’s most recent earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对苹果的成功投资主要取决于该公司表现良好并在未来提供高于共识的财务业绩。在这方面，苹果的业务似乎状况非常好，至少从该公司最近的财报来看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> So, I turn away from business fundamentals for now and focus on price action. Historically, the best strategy has been&nbsp;to buy Apple when it is well off its peak. Recently, I came across yet another piece of evidence to support this idea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我现在远离商业基本面，专注于价格走势。从历史上看，最好的策略是在苹果远未达到顶峰时买入。最近，我发现了另一个支持这一观点的证据。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past five years, Apple stock has produced monthly returns that have swung from a low of -18% in November 2018 to a high of 21% in August 2020. Although it may be hard to anticipate with much precision when the stock will perform best, there seems to be somewhat of a pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去五年中，苹果股票的月回报率从2018年11月的-18%的低点波动到2020年8月的21%的高点。尽管可能很难非常精确地预测股票何时表现最佳，但似乎有某种模式。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that steeper monthly losses in Apple shares tend to be followed by periods of strong stock performance. Notice the dotted arrows:</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果股票月度跌幅较大之后往往会出现股票表现强劲的时期。请注意虚线箭头：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45802af85db02f208dc6687c52dd4a63\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>库存漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Below are some numbers to help illustrate the point.</p><p><blockquote>下面是一些数字来帮助说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has produced an average three-month return of 3.5%, with worst decline of -11% in the fourth quarter of 2018. But an investor who waited to buy shares only after two months of material losses (defined here as -3%) in the previous three periods earned an average three-month return that was nearly twice as high, at 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果平均三个月回报率为3.5%，2018年第四季度跌幅最大，为-11%。但如果投资者在前三个时期经历了两个月的重大损失（此处定义为-3%）后才等待购买股票，则获得了近两倍的平均三个月回报率，达到6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> March is shaping up to be a bad month for Apple, after January saw shares tank and February failed to impress. Judging only by the pattern described above, this could be a good time to jump in.</p><p><blockquote>继1月份股价暴跌、2月份表现不佳之后，3月份对苹果来说将是糟糕的一个月。仅从上面描述的模式来看，这可能是一个跳进去的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calendar pattern says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日历图案显示：购买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> The second reason to buy Apple now has to do with annual patterns in stock returns. The graph below tells a compelling story.</p><p><blockquote>现在购买苹果的第二个原因与股票回报的年度模式有关。下图讲述了一个引人注目的故事。</blockquote></p><p> Notice that the average monthly gains in Apple shares over the past five years have been best in the summer months of July and August. Prior to this period, the returns improve slowly throughout the spring, as the stock recovers from an underwhelming holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去五年苹果股票的平均月涨幅在夏季的七月和八月是最好的。在此之前，随着股票从平淡无奇的假日季度中恢复过来，整个春季的回报缓慢改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563f095f6d02bf7c530705e701c30e2b\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>库存漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is some logic to this pattern. September tends to be the month in which the new iPhone model is announced, a few weeks ahead of Black Friday. At that point, investors have likely already bid up the share price in anticipation for Apple’s “hot season” of sales. Sell-the-news pressures begin to accumulate.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式有一定的逻辑。9月往往是新款iPhone发布的月份，比黑色星期五提前几周。届时，投资者可能已经因预期苹果的销售“旺季”而抬高了股价。消息抛售压力开始累积。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, something similar could happen. The market’s preference for small-cap value stocks over mega-cap growth ones during a year of economic recovery will eventually fizzle. At that point, chatter about&nbsp;Apple’s iPhone 13 will begin to surface. This could be the moment for Apple shares to finally shine this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，类似的事情可能会发生。在经济复苏的一年里，市场对小盘价值股而不是大型成长股的偏好最终将会失败。届时，关于苹果iPhone 13的传言将开始浮出水面。这可能是苹果股价今年最终大放异彩的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> Those who buy the stock at de-risked prices could benefit from the potential rebound later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>那些以去风险价格购买该股的人可能会从2021年晚些时候的潜在反弹中受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外2个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外2个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 21:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territory. However, two price patterns suggest that this could be a good time to buy the stock.</p><p><blockquote>苹果经历了自10月份以来最糟糕的交易日，股价可能很快就会进入熊市区域。然而，两种价格模式表明，这可能是购买该股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, March 8, Apple stock had its worst day of trading since October 2020: down 4.2%, despite lack of company-specific news. My fears over the&nbsp;market cap dipping below $2 trillionfor the first time since November were also confirmed, maybe more quickly than I could have anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>3月8日星期一，苹果股价出现了自2020年10月以来最糟糕的交易日：尽管缺乏公司具体消息，但仍下跌4.2%。我对市值自11月以来首次跌破2万亿美元的担忧也得到了证实，也许比我预期的要快。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock is now nearly 19% off the peak of less than 30 trading days ago, and one inch away from bear territory. Investors must be feeling uneasy about holding shares during this uncomfortable pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价目前较不到30个交易日前的峰值下跌近19%，距离熊市仅一英寸。在这次令人不安的回调期间，投资者肯定对持有股票感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> But I believe that shareholders also have reasons to be optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>但我相信股东也有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史说：买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, a successful investment in Apple depends primarily on the company performing well and delivering above-consensus financial results going forward. In that regard, Apple’s business seems to be in very good shape, at least judging by&nbsp;the company’s most recent earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对苹果的成功投资主要取决于该公司表现良好并在未来提供高于共识的财务业绩。在这方面，苹果的业务似乎状况非常好，至少从该公司最近的财报来看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> So, I turn away from business fundamentals for now and focus on price action. Historically, the best strategy has been&nbsp;to buy Apple when it is well off its peak. Recently, I came across yet another piece of evidence to support this idea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我现在远离商业基本面，专注于价格走势。从历史上看，最好的策略是在苹果远未达到顶峰时买入。最近，我发现了另一个支持这一观点的证据。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past five years, Apple stock has produced monthly returns that have swung from a low of -18% in November 2018 to a high of 21% in August 2020. Although it may be hard to anticipate with much precision when the stock will perform best, there seems to be somewhat of a pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去五年中，苹果股票的月回报率从2018年11月的-18%的低点波动到2020年8月的21%的高点。尽管可能很难非常精确地预测股票何时表现最佳，但似乎有某种模式。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that steeper monthly losses in Apple shares tend to be followed by periods of strong stock performance. Notice the dotted arrows:</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果股票月度跌幅较大之后往往会出现股票表现强劲的时期。请注意虚线箭头：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45802af85db02f208dc6687c52dd4a63\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>库存漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Below are some numbers to help illustrate the point.</p><p><blockquote>下面是一些数字来帮助说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has produced an average three-month return of 3.5%, with worst decline of -11% in the fourth quarter of 2018. But an investor who waited to buy shares only after two months of material losses (defined here as -3%) in the previous three periods earned an average three-month return that was nearly twice as high, at 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果平均三个月回报率为3.5%，2018年第四季度跌幅最大，为-11%。但如果投资者在前三个时期经历了两个月的重大损失（此处定义为-3%）后才等待购买股票，则获得了近两倍的平均三个月回报率，达到6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> March is shaping up to be a bad month for Apple, after January saw shares tank and February failed to impress. Judging only by the pattern described above, this could be a good time to jump in.</p><p><blockquote>继1月份股价暴跌、2月份表现不佳之后，3月份对苹果来说将是糟糕的一个月。仅从上面描述的模式来看，这可能是一个跳进去的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calendar pattern says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日历图案显示：购买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> The second reason to buy Apple now has to do with annual patterns in stock returns. The graph below tells a compelling story.</p><p><blockquote>现在购买苹果的第二个原因与股票回报的年度模式有关。下图讲述了一个引人注目的故事。</blockquote></p><p> Notice that the average monthly gains in Apple shares over the past five years have been best in the summer months of July and August. Prior to this period, the returns improve slowly throughout the spring, as the stock recovers from an underwhelming holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去五年苹果股票的平均月涨幅在夏季的七月和八月是最好的。在此之前，随着股票从平淡无奇的假日季度中恢复过来，整个春季的回报缓慢改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563f095f6d02bf7c530705e701c30e2b\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>库存漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is some logic to this pattern. September tends to be the month in which the new iPhone model is announced, a few weeks ahead of Black Friday. At that point, investors have likely already bid up the share price in anticipation for Apple’s “hot season” of sales. Sell-the-news pressures begin to accumulate.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式有一定的逻辑。9月往往是新款iPhone发布的月份，比黑色星期五提前几周。届时，投资者可能已经因预期苹果的销售“旺季”而抬高了股价。消息抛售压力开始累积。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, something similar could happen. The market’s preference for small-cap value stocks over mega-cap growth ones during a year of economic recovery will eventually fizzle. At that point, chatter about&nbsp;Apple’s iPhone 13 will begin to surface. This could be the moment for Apple shares to finally shine this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，类似的事情可能会发生。在经济复苏的一年里，市场对小盘价值股而不是大型成长股的偏好最终将会失败。届时，关于苹果iPhone 13的传言将开始浮出水面。这可能是苹果股价今年最终大放异彩的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> Those who buy the stock at de-risked prices could benefit from the potential rebound later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>那些以去风险价格购买该股的人可能会从2021年晚些时候的潜在反弹中受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/2-more-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-on-the-dip\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/2-more-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-on-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129681722","content_text":"Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territory. However, two price patterns suggest that this could be a good time to buy the stock.\nOn Monday, March 8, Apple stock had its worst day of trading since October 2020: down 4.2%, despite lack of company-specific news. My fears over the market cap dipping below $2 trillionfor the first time since November were also confirmed, maybe more quickly than I could have anticipated.\nApple stock is now nearly 19% off the peak of less than 30 trading days ago, and one inch away from bear territory. Investors must be feeling uneasy about holding shares during this uncomfortable pullback.\nBut I believe that shareholders also have reasons to be optimistic.\nHistory says: buy Apple\nOf course, a successful investment in Apple depends primarily on the company performing well and delivering above-consensus financial results going forward. In that regard, Apple’s business seems to be in very good shape, at least judging by the company’s most recent earnings report.\nSo, I turn away from business fundamentals for now and focus on price action. Historically, the best strategy has been to buy Apple when it is well off its peak. Recently, I came across yet another piece of evidence to support this idea.\nOver the past five years, Apple stock has produced monthly returns that have swung from a low of -18% in November 2018 to a high of 21% in August 2020. Although it may be hard to anticipate with much precision when the stock will perform best, there seems to be somewhat of a pattern.\nThe graph below shows that steeper monthly losses in Apple shares tend to be followed by periods of strong stock performance. Notice the dotted arrows:\nStock Rover\nBelow are some numbers to help illustrate the point.\nSince 2016, Apple has produced an average three-month return of 3.5%, with worst decline of -11% in the fourth quarter of 2018. But an investor who waited to buy shares only after two months of material losses (defined here as -3%) in the previous three periods earned an average three-month return that was nearly twice as high, at 6.7%.\nMarch is shaping up to be a bad month for Apple, after January saw shares tank and February failed to impress. Judging only by the pattern described above, this could be a good time to jump in.\nCalendar pattern says: buy Apple\nThe second reason to buy Apple now has to do with annual patterns in stock returns. The graph below tells a compelling story.\nNotice that the average monthly gains in Apple shares over the past five years have been best in the summer months of July and August. Prior to this period, the returns improve slowly throughout the spring, as the stock recovers from an underwhelming holiday quarter.\nStock Rover\nThere is some logic to this pattern. September tends to be the month in which the new iPhone model is announced, a few weeks ahead of Black Friday. At that point, investors have likely already bid up the share price in anticipation for Apple’s “hot season” of sales. Sell-the-news pressures begin to accumulate.\nIn 2021, something similar could happen. The market’s preference for small-cap value stocks over mega-cap growth ones during a year of economic recovery will eventually fizzle. At that point, chatter about Apple’s iPhone 13 will begin to surface. This could be the moment for Apple shares to finally shine this year.\nThose who buy the stock at de-risked prices could benefit from the potential rebound later in 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21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111018641","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect th","content":"<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场定时器与多头一起运行，但很快就转向看跌。</b>逆向投资者怀疑股市最近的下跌已经结束——就目前而言。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场定时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX（尤其是1.07%市场）的市场定时器，已经变得足够看跌，以至于阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。尽管如此，尚不清楚任何新的反弹是否会产生持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，按照历史标准，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%跌幅。在周四大幅上涨之前，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA已较之前的历史高点（即3.4%）下跌约1,200点，跌幅为0.85%。标准普尔500SPX指数(0.98%)较高点低4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数(1.13%)下跌7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下关注纳斯达克的市场定时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）为代表）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场定时器现在建议他们的客户将平均10.7%的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为+83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短10个交易日内就退出了94.3个百分点。事实上，自2000年以来的5,000多个交易日中，只有18-0.3%，其中HNNSI在过去10天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>为了理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次HNNSI下跌幅度如此之大、如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？图表上的答案也很明显：过去10天，HNNSI的下跌幅度远低于过度看跌区域，即历史分布的底部10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次落入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的“担忧之墙”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的那堵墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景显示，市场计时器乐于触发。当市场反弹时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会加入看跌行列。因此，无论是上涨还是下跌都往往是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>更持久的反弹将需要市场计时器更加极端的看跌情绪，并且他们在反弹最初起飞后顽固地坚持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场反弹——趁它持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场定时器与多头一起运行，但很快就转向看跌。</b>逆向投资者怀疑股市最近的下跌已经结束——就目前而言。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场定时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX（尤其是1.07%市场）的市场定时器，已经变得足够看跌，以至于阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。尽管如此，尚不清楚任何新的反弹是否会产生持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，按照历史标准，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%跌幅。在周四大幅上涨之前，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA已较之前的历史高点（即3.4%）下跌约1,200点，跌幅为0.85%。标准普尔500SPX指数(0.98%)较高点低4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数(1.13%)下跌7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下关注纳斯达克的市场定时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）为代表）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场定时器现在建议他们的客户将平均10.7%的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为+83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短10个交易日内就退出了94.3个百分点。事实上，自2000年以来的5,000多个交易日中，只有18-0.3%，其中HNNSI在过去10天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>为了理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次HNNSI下跌幅度如此之大、如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？图表上的答案也很明显：过去10天，HNNSI的下跌幅度远低于过度看跌区域，即历史分布的底部10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次落入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的“担忧之墙”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的那堵墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景显示，市场计时器乐于触发。当市场反弹时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会加入看跌行列。因此，无论是上涨还是下跌都往往是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>更持久的反弹将需要市场计时器更加极端的看跌情绪，并且他们在反弹最初起飞后顽固地坚持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场反弹——趁它持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111018641","content_text":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.\nThat’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.\nFor now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.\nConsider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.\n\nThat reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.\nTo appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.\nWhy, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.\nThe last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.\nThe sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.\nA longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it 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11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir stock slumps as lockup expiration opens 80% of shares for trading<blockquote>由于禁售期到期，Palantir 80%的股票开始交易，股价暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107899645","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Palantir Technologies Inc. 's direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which ","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 's&nbsp;direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which expires today. Insiders were only allowed to sell 20%of their shares in the listing, which means the remaining 80% are open for trading today. Palantir shares aredown 5.8%pre-market.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">帕兰提尔技术公司。</a>9月份的直接上市不同寻常地包括一个禁售期，该禁售期将于今天到期。内部人士只被允许出售20%的上市股份，这意味着剩余的80%今天开放交易。Palantir股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has faced valuation concerns with shares closing yesterday at about 274% above its direct listing reference price.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临估值担忧，股价昨天收盘价较其直接上市参考价高出约274%。</blockquote></p><p> Soros Fund Management will continue exiting its position that amounted to&nbsp; 18.46M shares as of November, when the fund said it regretted the investment and \"does not approve of Palantir's business practices.\"</p><p><blockquote>索罗斯基金管理公司将继续退出截至11月的1846万股头寸，当时该基金表示对这项投资感到遗憾，并且“不认可Palantir的商业行为”。</blockquote></p><p> The fund said at the time it had sold all the shares it could and would keep selling,when permitted.</p><p><blockquote>该基金当时表示，它已经出售了所有可以出售的股票，并将在允许的情况下继续出售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb04e82d11b2b74032cb91d003dd907\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"445\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir stock slumps as lockup expiration opens 80% of shares for trading<blockquote>由于禁售期到期，Palantir 80%的股票开始交易，股价暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir stock slumps as lockup expiration opens 80% of shares for trading<blockquote>由于禁售期到期，Palantir 80%的股票开始交易，股价暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-19 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 's&nbsp;direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which expires today. Insiders were only allowed to sell 20%of their shares in the listing, which means the remaining 80% are open for trading today. Palantir shares aredown 5.8%pre-market.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">帕兰提尔技术公司。</a>9月份的直接上市不同寻常地包括一个禁售期，该禁售期将于今天到期。内部人士只被允许出售20%的上市股份，这意味着剩余的80%今天开放交易。Palantir股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has faced valuation concerns with shares closing yesterday at about 274% above its direct listing reference price.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临估值担忧，股价昨天收盘价较其直接上市参考价高出约274%。</blockquote></p><p> Soros Fund Management will continue exiting its position that amounted to&nbsp; 18.46M shares as of November, when the fund said it regretted the investment and \"does not approve of Palantir's business practices.\"</p><p><blockquote>索罗斯基金管理公司将继续退出截至11月的1846万股头寸，当时该基金表示对这项投资感到遗憾，并且“不认可Palantir的商业行为”。</blockquote></p><p> The fund said at the time it had sold all the shares it could and would keep selling,when permitted.</p><p><blockquote>该基金当时表示，它已经出售了所有可以出售的股票，并将在允许的情况下继续出售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb04e82d11b2b74032cb91d003dd907\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"445\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663407-palantir-stock-slumps-as-lockup-expiration-opens-80-of-shares-for-trading\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663407-palantir-stock-slumps-as-lockup-expiration-opens-80-of-shares-for-trading","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107899645","content_text":"Palantir Technologies Inc. 's direct listing in September unusually included a lockup period, which expires today. Insiders were only allowed to sell 20%of their shares in the listing, which means the remaining 80% are open for trading today. Palantir shares aredown 5.8%pre-market.\nPalantir has faced valuation concerns with shares closing yesterday at about 274% above its direct listing reference price.\nSoros Fund Management will continue exiting its position that amounted to  18.46M shares as of November, when the fund said it regretted the investment and \"does not approve of Palantir's business practices.\"\nThe fund said at the time it had sold all the shares it could and would keep selling,when permitted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313759310,"gmtCreate":1611753559530,"gmtModify":1703753104944,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shall I buy?","listText":"Shall I buy?","text":"Shall I buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2a909bda6277bef977fa4798b4fbb6","width":"1080","height":"2709"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313759310","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132404975,"gmtCreate":1622104274097,"gmtModify":1634183814456,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes Palantir!!!","listText":"Yes Palantir!!!","text":"Yes Palantir!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132404975","repostId":"1156279615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365989978,"gmtCreate":1614689198694,"gmtModify":1703479886419,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365989978","repostId":"1157813248","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368725067,"gmtCreate":1614353834059,"gmtModify":1703476875165,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368725067","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369674998,"gmtCreate":1614043747214,"gmtModify":1634551426255,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369674998","repostId":"1155156489","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386964209,"gmtCreate":1613128039701,"gmtModify":1634554424545,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well","listText":"Well","text":"Well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386964209","repostId":"2110026963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383233597,"gmtCreate":1612880565319,"gmtModify":1703766212900,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383233597","repostId":"1114166601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114166601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612866163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114166601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 18:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?<blockquote>30年期国债收益率达到2%。收益率什么时候会开始损害股市？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114166601","media":"Barrons","summary":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first t","content":"<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在长期国债收益率长期走高后，30年期国债收益率自Covid-19爆发以来首次攀升至2%以上。这让投资者询问债券收益率上升的更广泛趋势何时会损害股市。</blockquote></p><p>The central concern is that&nbsp;once Treasury yields climb high enough&nbsp;investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries&nbsp;extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark<b>,</b>Wall Street consensus is hard to find:&nbsp;Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.</p><p><blockquote>最核心的担忧是，一旦美国国债收益率攀升到足够高的水平，投资者将希望购买安全债券，而不是股票或高收益债券。但目前尚不清楚这种情况何时会发生，而且随着收益率不断上升，30年期债券面临额外的损失风险。说到10年期国债，一个更受欢迎的基准<b>,</b>华尔街的共识很难找到：策略师的预测称，10年期国债收益率可能只需升至1.75%，或高达5%，就能使其比那些风险更高的替代品更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>自8月下旬以来，长期国债收益率一直在稳步上升，自11月9日辉瑞和BioNTech宣布推出有效的Covid-19疫苗以来，这种上升速度更快。30年期国债收益率在早盘突破该水平后，周一徘徊在2%附近，高于疫苗接种前的1.6%。基准10年期国债收益率也有所攀升，从疫苗接种前的0.8%升至周一的1.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.</p><p><blockquote>由于对Covid-19疫苗分发和全球经济重新开放步伐的担忧，长期收益率到周一下午已从上午高点回落，10年期国债收益率下跌1个基点（百分之一个百分点），30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.</p><p><blockquote>但预计未来几周和几个月收益率将继续攀升。一个关键问题是，收益率需要多高才能削弱股市回报。几位华尔街策略师在最近的报告中解决了这个难题。</blockquote></p><p>Almost 70% of S&amp;P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.</p><p><blockquote>股票策略师Savita Subramanian领导的团队在最近的一份报告中写道，近70%的标普500公司支付的收益率高于10年期国债。他们发现，如果企业将派息保持在当前水平，并且国债收益率到今年年底升至1.75%，这一比例将降至40%。</blockquote></p><p>That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会开始削弱股票作为收入游戏的吸引力；如今，标普500的整体股息收益率为1.5%，高于10年期国债派息。这有助于抵消对估值高于历史平均水平的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&amp;P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从总回报的角度来看，股票的情况要好得多。该银行的股票策略师写道，标普500的隐含长期回报率约为3%。</blockquote></p><p>Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街策略师预计10年期国债不会很快挑战这一回报率。美国银行利率策略师在1月份的展望文章中预测，3%将是此次扩张期间基准收益率的峰值，这意味着在美联储开始加息之前收益率不会达到这些水平。根据该银行的一些估值模型，在其他条件相同的情况下，在收益率升至5%之前，与国债相比，股票看起来会很便宜。</blockquote></p><p>More important, a 3% return from the S&amp;P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，标普500 3%的回报率仍将超过未来十年通胀预期的关键市场指标。随着美国从Covid-19危机中复苏，增长预期改善，该指标被称为盈亏平衡通胀率，该指标已被推高。周一触及2.2%，为2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，10年期国债收益率仍低于同期市场通胀预期，预计至少到今年年底仍将保持这种状态。瑞士信贷策略师Jonathan Golub在2月8日的一份报告中写道，即使通胀调整后的收益率上升也可能不会损害股市，因为经济增长强劲对股市的提振应该会超过债券市场收益率的相对改善。</blockquote></p><p>In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.</p><p><blockquote>股市的另一个积极因素是，收益率上升并未对美国大型公司的资产负债表产生负面影响。ICE美国银行企业指数（衡量高评级公司当前借贷成本的指标）的有效收益率在近12年的期限内仍仅为1.9%。去年创纪录的固定利率借款洪流意味着企业多年来不需要为债务再融资。</blockquote></p><p>There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:&nbsp; Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师在2月7日的一份报告中写道，利率上升至少会对某些股票产生负面影响：投资者不太愿意等待利润增长。他们发现，自10年期国债收益率攀升至1%以上以来，对经济增长敏感的股票和在疫情期间表现不佳的“价值”股票表现优于大盘，因为投资者正在以更高的利率贴现未来现金流。Russell 2000 Value ETF(IWN)今年迄今已上涨14%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师写道，美国国债收益率的快速跃升对整个股市来说将是危险的。但该行估计，真正的损害需要收益率在一个月内上升36个基点。考虑到在最近一次引人注目的走高过程中，收益率花了大约三个月的时间才攀升到如此程度，这看起来不太可能。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，策略师和投资者表示，收益率的上升可能需要在不同市场分配现金的基金经理的决策方式发生一些变化。对冲基金D.E肖最近发现，随着收益率上升，长期债券应该可以更好地对冲股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p>So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.</p><p><blockquote>因此，未来几个月债券可能会变得更具吸引力。但目前尚不清楚这种转变是否足以削弱股市，特别是在长期债券回报因收益率上升而面临的风险最大的情况下。因此，尽管美国国债有一天可能会提供比股票更好的替代品，但这一过程可能需要比投资者想象的更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?<blockquote>30年期国债收益率达到2%。收益率什么时候会开始损害股市？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?<blockquote>30年期国债收益率达到2%。收益率什么时候会开始损害股市？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 18:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在长期国债收益率长期走高后，30年期国债收益率自Covid-19爆发以来首次攀升至2%以上。这让投资者询问债券收益率上升的更广泛趋势何时会损害股市。</blockquote></p><p>The central concern is that&nbsp;once Treasury yields climb high enough&nbsp;investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries&nbsp;extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark<b>,</b>Wall Street consensus is hard to find:&nbsp;Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.</p><p><blockquote>最核心的担忧是，一旦美国国债收益率攀升到足够高的水平，投资者将希望购买安全债券，而不是股票或高收益债券。但目前尚不清楚这种情况何时会发生，而且随着收益率不断上升，30年期债券面临额外的损失风险。说到10年期国债，一个更受欢迎的基准<b>,</b>华尔街的共识很难找到：策略师的预测称，10年期国债收益率可能只需升至1.75%，或高达5%，就能使其比那些风险更高的替代品更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>自8月下旬以来，长期国债收益率一直在稳步上升，自11月9日辉瑞和BioNTech宣布推出有效的Covid-19疫苗以来，这种上升速度更快。30年期国债收益率在早盘突破该水平后，周一徘徊在2%附近，高于疫苗接种前的1.6%。基准10年期国债收益率也有所攀升，从疫苗接种前的0.8%升至周一的1.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.</p><p><blockquote>由于对Covid-19疫苗分发和全球经济重新开放步伐的担忧，长期收益率到周一下午已从上午高点回落，10年期国债收益率下跌1个基点（百分之一个百分点），30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.</p><p><blockquote>但预计未来几周和几个月收益率将继续攀升。一个关键问题是，收益率需要多高才能削弱股市回报。几位华尔街策略师在最近的报告中解决了这个难题。</blockquote></p><p>Almost 70% of S&amp;P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.</p><p><blockquote>股票策略师Savita Subramanian领导的团队在最近的一份报告中写道，近70%的标普500公司支付的收益率高于10年期国债。他们发现，如果企业将派息保持在当前水平，并且国债收益率到今年年底升至1.75%，这一比例将降至40%。</blockquote></p><p>That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会开始削弱股票作为收入游戏的吸引力；如今，标普500的整体股息收益率为1.5%，高于10年期国债派息。这有助于抵消对估值高于历史平均水平的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&amp;P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从总回报的角度来看，股票的情况要好得多。该银行的股票策略师写道，标普500的隐含长期回报率约为3%。</blockquote></p><p>Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街策略师预计10年期国债不会很快挑战这一回报率。美国银行利率策略师在1月份的展望文章中预测，3%将是此次扩张期间基准收益率的峰值，这意味着在美联储开始加息之前收益率不会达到这些水平。根据该银行的一些估值模型，在其他条件相同的情况下，在收益率升至5%之前，与国债相比，股票看起来会很便宜。</blockquote></p><p>More important, a 3% return from the S&amp;P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，标普500 3%的回报率仍将超过未来十年通胀预期的关键市场指标。随着美国从Covid-19危机中复苏，增长预期改善，该指标被称为盈亏平衡通胀率，该指标已被推高。周一触及2.2%，为2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，10年期国债收益率仍低于同期市场通胀预期，预计至少到今年年底仍将保持这种状态。瑞士信贷策略师Jonathan Golub在2月8日的一份报告中写道，即使通胀调整后的收益率上升也可能不会损害股市，因为经济增长强劲对股市的提振应该会超过债券市场收益率的相对改善。</blockquote></p><p>In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.</p><p><blockquote>股市的另一个积极因素是，收益率上升并未对美国大型公司的资产负债表产生负面影响。ICE美国银行企业指数（衡量高评级公司当前借贷成本的指标）的有效收益率在近12年的期限内仍仅为1.9%。去年创纪录的固定利率借款洪流意味着企业多年来不需要为债务再融资。</blockquote></p><p>There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:&nbsp; Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师在2月7日的一份报告中写道，利率上升至少会对某些股票产生负面影响：投资者不太愿意等待利润增长。他们发现，自10年期国债收益率攀升至1%以上以来，对经济增长敏感的股票和在疫情期间表现不佳的“价值”股票表现优于大盘，因为投资者正在以更高的利率贴现未来现金流。Russell 2000 Value ETF(IWN)今年迄今已上涨14%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师写道，美国国债收益率的快速跃升对整个股市来说将是危险的。但该行估计，真正的损害需要收益率在一个月内上升36个基点。考虑到在最近一次引人注目的走高过程中，收益率花了大约三个月的时间才攀升到如此程度，这看起来不太可能。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，策略师和投资者表示，收益率的上升可能需要在不同市场分配现金的基金经理的决策方式发生一些变化。对冲基金D.E肖最近发现，随着收益率上升，长期债券应该可以更好地对冲股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p>So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.</p><p><blockquote>因此，未来几个月债券可能会变得更具吸引力。但目前尚不清楚这种转变是否足以削弱股市，特别是在长期债券回报因收益率上升而面临的风险最大的情况下。因此，尽管美国国债有一天可能会提供比股票更好的替代品，但这一过程可能需要比投资者想象的更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114166601","content_text":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.The central concern is that once Treasury yields climb high enough investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark,Wall Street consensus is hard to find: Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.Almost 70% of S&P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.More important, a 3% return from the S&P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:  Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136607068,"gmtCreate":1622011223854,"gmtModify":1634184678760,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570505106221155","authorIdStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136607068","repostId":"1130362459","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}